DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory

00:00:00.000 | Jamal do you hear that Friberg got busted looking at porn in his computer?

00:00:03.520 | You know what it was yeah

00:00:09.160 | I think he was pleasuring himself to that

00:00:22.760 | You have to go for a quick game of pocket pool. How's your oh my god?

00:00:27.880 | It's too exciting you were beating the bishop Allison came in and just like wondering what was going on

00:00:33.120 | She grabbed my computer as you looked at it, and it was an essay

00:00:52.880 | All right before we get to doge we got a little housekeeping little housey housekeeping, you know

00:00:59.000 | We're getting into the holiday spirit here. It's episode 205. We're in year four and we're having a Christmas party

00:01:05.520 | It's gonna be great. The all-in holiday

00:01:08.500 | Spectacular is happening in San Francisco

00:01:11.440 | on Saturday December 7th, I think the VIP sold out there's still some tickets left go to all in comm slash events and

00:01:20.800 | If you can't make it to San Francisco, I think you can buy a ticket for $50 on

00:01:26.320 | On the zoom. I think we're gonna have it on zoom. Is that right? I might do I have my facts straight there free berg

00:01:31.840 | Yeah, there's gonna be a live stream

00:01:35.040 | Thanks to zoom for setting this up for us. It's kind of interesting

00:01:39.600 | They're doing this thing where you could you kind of you know get access to live events

00:01:43.760 | So they're helping us get this set up. You want to watch the stream live on zoom anything's possible

00:01:50.600 | It could be spicy

00:01:52.600 | Through that. All right

00:01:54.000 | Listen best eat you on and bestie Vivek wrote an op-ed a barnburner in the Wall Street

00:02:00.600 | Journal about doge the Department of Government efficiency and they laid it out

00:02:06.760 | They want to cut overbearing and unnecessary regulation

00:02:10.200 | Obviously, they want to cut unnecessary administrative roles save taxpayers money. They want to run it by founders non-politicians

00:02:16.720 | helping

00:02:18.640 | The Trump transition team find a way to hire quote a lean team of small government Crusaders

00:02:24.720 | Teams gonna work closely with the White House Office of Management and Budget. Here's the plan first a game at

00:02:31.440 | 500 billion in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress then fix the government's procurement process by conducting massive

00:02:39.360 | audits during

00:02:41.360 | Temporary payment suspensions. This is an interesting playbook that

00:02:45.720 | Elon has done before so basically

00:02:47.720 | Suspend all the payments and hey, let everybody

00:02:51.440 | Audit those payments drive change through executive action based on existing

00:02:57.080 | Legislation rather than passing new laws and to SCOTUS rulings are gonna play a major role here

00:03:02.840 | West Virginia versus EPA

00:03:05.080 | That's when SCOTUS rule that federal agencies can't impose regulations dealing with major economic or policy questions unless Congress

00:03:13.480 | Authorizes them to do so and looper bright versus Raimondo

00:03:16.960 | That's from 2024 and that overturned the Chevron doctrine. We talked about that on a previous episode

00:03:22.680 | So according to Doge when combined

00:03:24.840 | Quote these cases suggest that a plethora of current federal regulations exceed the authority

00:03:32.160 | Congress has granted under the law

00:03:34.160 | Doge will use software and legal experts to create a list of regulations that Trump can immediately pause

00:03:40.360 | they're gonna make some sort of a leaderboard Elon said and

00:03:43.360 | The vague said he would do he suspended his existing podcast

00:03:48.480 | I didn't know he had a podcast but he's doing a dogecast a doge podcast and so

00:03:53.640 | Freeberg this has been you know a major issue for you. You've been talking about on this podcast that the

00:04:00.520 | unsustainable

00:04:02.920 | Existential issue for our country is all of the debt we have

00:04:07.240 | What are the chances?

00:04:09.800 | That this is going to occur because obviously we all know the machine is going to fight

00:04:14.760 | to preserve the machine chances that we are sitting here in four years and we've seen meaningful cuts in

00:04:21.280 | Spending and a meaningful reduction in size of the government

00:04:24.960 | Look, it's doge has probably 18 months to do

00:04:29.140 | What they can do before the midterms and there's gonna be an inevitable amount of recoil and backlash that's gonna arise from

00:04:36.720 | The actions that they're gonna try and take and President Trump's gonna try and take

00:04:40.520 | Under the recommendations provided by doge

00:04:43.600 | So they need to move fast and aggressively and that's only gonna cause the recoil to be harder and faster

00:04:50.160 | There's gonna be a ton of litigation. Obviously, everything's gonna go to court. It's gonna be

00:04:54.480 | Incredibly politicized what is frustrating and challenging to me is that there is nothing that they said that doesn't seem obvious and right

00:05:02.960 | I don't know how you can politicize the points that they're making put aside their party put aside who they are

00:05:08.800 | Individually put aside how we got here at the end of the day

00:05:12.560 | This federal government needs to be run more efficiently more effectively

00:05:16.600 | It is unfair and it is a tax on every one of us to have money thrown away

00:05:21.520 | To have wasted capital to have bureaucracy that gets in the way of people being able to do their jobs

00:05:27.440 | It is a tax on all of us and our kids and our future

00:05:30.600 | It needs to be fixed if it doesn't get fixed as I've said countless times before we are in an arithmetic debt death spiral

00:05:37.900 | There is no way out of it. So by resolving both the inefficiency

00:05:41.880 | Reducing the bureaucracy stopping the wasteful spending having accountability in the org in the government. We can actually get the United States another

00:05:50.280 | 50 years a hundred years, whatever long we want, but we were literally in a death spiral leading up to this moment

00:05:56.880 | And I have no idea how we ended up on this timeline

00:05:59.920 | I was over the moon and shocked when I read all of the progress over the last couple of weeks and putting this thing together

00:06:06.840 | I did not know that this is where we were end up

00:06:08.680 | I couldn't be more happy with what I think is gonna happen with doge and its effect on

00:06:12.320 | If not actually making the changes shining a light on the issues that need to be addressed and I will say it is unfair

00:06:19.280 | To Americans for this to be politicized the Democrats shouldn't make this a Republican issue

00:06:25.720 | This is not about Republicans doing damage

00:06:27.960 | this is about doing the right thing for the government for the country and the Democrats had an opportunity to own this issue and

00:06:33.720 | Instead they've chosen to oppose it which makes no sense

00:06:36.840 | It is frustrating and challenging to me as an American to think that this is even a political point

00:06:41.800 | This should be a what's right for America point

00:06:44.080 | It's almost like we're going to war war with ourselves with our bureaucracy with the morass

00:06:48.440 | That's been built up over the last couple of decades and I'm thrilled that this is happening and frankly put the put the people aside

00:06:55.040 | Maybe it's the fact that you need people that are as outspoken as challenging as difficult as these two particular individuals

00:07:02.440 | They're gonna run this group

00:07:03.480 | But that might be what it takes for it to happen in the small 18-month window that they have

00:07:07.600 | So that's my rant on it. Yeah great rant and we had a Milton Friedman clip go viral

00:07:13.760 | And he spoke exactly about his positions on what he would eliminate

00:07:18.480 | Departments like agriculture commerce education. Let's just play that clip. And then there was obviously

00:07:23.320 | Malay interview by Lex Friedman earlier this week keep them or abolish them Department of Agriculture

00:07:29.500 | abolish gone me Department of Commerce

00:07:32.480 | Abolish gone Department of Defense. Keep keep it Department of Education

00:07:38.400 | gone energy

00:07:41.400 | Abolish health and Human Services. There is room for some public health activities to prevent

00:07:47.800 | The contagion will eliminate half of the Department of Health. Okay one half. There we go housing and urban development

00:07:53.800 | Done that's gone Department of the Interior. The problem there is

00:07:58.200 | You first have to sell off all the land that the government owns, but that's what you should do

00:08:03.240 | Department of Justice. Oh, yes, keep that keep that one labor. No gone state

00:08:11.720 | Keep keep it transportation

00:08:14.240 | gone gone

00:08:16.560 | the Treasury

00:08:18.040 | You have to keep it to collect taxes. All right collect taxes through the Treasury Sachs. You see that clip you see the activity going

00:08:24.200 | on with Doge

00:08:26.200 | Would you think that the machine will allow what Milton Friedman is describing there what Javier Malay is doing in Argentina and what?

00:08:35.440 | Elon is proposing with Doge. Do you think the machine is going to allow?

00:08:39.240 | You know the wholesale

00:08:42.600 | deleting of

00:08:44.760 | Department of Agriculture Department of Education at a federal level and move all that stuff to the states

00:08:49.240 | What do you think's gonna happen here?

00:08:51.040 | And how hard will the machine fight back against this in your mind because hey

00:08:56.920 | You might have some Republicans some Democrats. They fought really hard to get jobs to get

00:09:01.400 | Subsidies to put in factories, whatever from the federal government. Are they gonna just give that all back?

00:09:06.680 | The clip is from 1998 by the way sacks your thoughts

00:09:11.400 | Well that Milton Friedman clip as great as it is. I mean it really is outstanding is

00:09:15.720 | Setting expectations a little bit too high here

00:09:19.360 | I mean, we're not gonna be able to wipe out entire major departments of the government that are cabinet level positions

00:09:24.480 | I don't think that's in the cards

00:09:26.920 | You know what Milton Friedman's basically describing is a night watchman state and I don't think we're gonna get back to that

00:09:31.920 | however, if you look right now at the

00:09:37.200 | Opinions on the legacy media MSDN see it and all that kind of stuff

00:09:41.600 | They are forecasting that Doge is gonna amount to nothing

00:09:45.360 | They're basically saying that the powers that be in Washington are gonna reject it completely

00:09:49.560 | There's somehow gonna be a falling out between

00:09:51.560 | Elon and DJT. They're just very cynical

00:09:54.560 | DJT and then you have people who are not

00:09:58.280 | necessarily

00:10:01.000 | dismissive in that way in

00:10:03.420 | The media but just kind of longtime Washington insiders who feel like they've seen it all before nothing ever happens

00:10:09.500 | And so they're just very jaded and cynical

00:10:11.100 | So I would say that you know again, I wouldn't have the expectations of the Milton Friedman level

00:10:16.340 | But I think that the expectations for Doge right now are being set incredibly low

00:10:20.300 | By the media and by the Washington insiders and I think there are good reasons to believe that the results will surpass

00:10:27.820 | those those low expectations

00:10:31.100 | number one is you've got Elon Musk running this thing with the vague and

00:10:36.140 | Elon understands better than anybody the impact of

00:10:39.440 | Deleterious regulations on business so he can really put a microscope on that

00:10:44.200 | he's got the largest speech platform in the world with X the largest account on X and he's also built a

00:10:50.680 | Get out the vote operation

00:10:53.460 | That he funded in the last election that he's promised to keep around and potentially expand

00:10:59.300 | So his influence hopefully is not going anywhere. He's gonna be able to keep using that to help

00:11:05.860 | Keep politicians outside. You're right. Yeah

00:11:09.460 | So that's number one is no one's ever made money betting against Elon Musk and I don't expect that to start right now

00:11:16.340 | Number two is you got Vivek who is co-head with?

00:11:20.240 | Elon of this thing and I think he's a perfect partner for Elon because Vivek first of all

00:11:26.100 | He's a brilliant guy with a lot of success in business, but he's also a Harvard trained lawyer

00:11:31.060 | He's a brilliant legal mind and I think you could see in that op-ed

00:11:34.880 | I suspect the parts that were citing all those from court decisions were his influence and so they figured out a legal

00:11:41.140 | Roadmap here. It's not just a matter of kind of

00:11:44.340 | Going to Congress and hoping Congress acts. They've got a way here

00:11:48.440 | Sequentially to do this through the executive branch through executive orders going through the court system

00:11:54.240 | They've kind of got a game plan here. That's not entirely reliant on legislation. So I think the Vicks

00:12:00.000 | Influence and and sort of

00:12:03.560 | Legal strategic mind is a is a big asset here

00:12:06.520 | And then I think the third reason to be optimistic is just the fact that this was printed on

00:12:11.080 | The Wall Street Journal op-ed page is suggested in and of itself

00:12:15.680 | what this shows is that

00:12:18.160 | This Doge effort is I think uniting both the kind of populist reformers and the establishment

00:12:24.660 | types within the party if

00:12:26.840 | Elon and

00:12:29.000 | The vague we're trying to get a mandate for no more forever war. I don't think the Wall Street Journal

00:12:33.240 | Yeah, I was doing that right just would not happen

00:12:36.000 | So there are reasons to believe that this will not actually divide the party that the party

00:12:41.960 | Yeah, could be yeah now look every congressman and every senator is still gonna advocate

00:12:47.320 | For their pork barrel project in their district or their state and it's gonna be very hard to push back on that

00:12:53.180 | however

00:12:54.040 | you could imagine a process like we have with the base closure Commission when

00:12:57.600 | the United States needs to close a bunch of military bases and they created a

00:13:01.100 | Outside Commission to recommend the cuts and everyone kind of shared the pain equally maybe Doge could somehow

00:13:08.200 | Play into the horse trade a little bit. Yeah, so I'm not saying it's gonna be perfect, but I do think that if

00:13:13.600 | Republicans

00:13:15.400 | Share a principle across again both these establishment and the populist side. It would be in

00:13:21.080 | reducing unnecessary regulation and the number of

00:13:25.520 | Regulators needed the number of government employees needed to enforce all those regulations

00:13:30.440 | So I'm hopeful that they'll be able to get something done within the party

00:13:33.960 | and since the Republicans have the trifecta if they've got

00:13:38.040 | Trump's leadership and they've got the leadership of the Senate and House backing it. I think they'll be able to get something done again

00:13:44.000 | It's not gonna be it's not gonna be Milton Friedman level, but I'm optimistic. They'll get something good and important done

00:13:49.240 | I think the easiest thing for them to get done with Doge is the naming the shaming the auditing the

00:13:55.780 | Transparency of what we're actually spending because so many of the audits Chamath are just not

00:14:01.200 | Completed people don't know what's being spent and if you show Americans a twelve thousand dollar hammer

00:14:07.420 | Or people with job titles not coming into the office or coming into the office one day a week one day a month

00:14:13.860 | That's gonna infuriate taxpayers and I think there's a very easy way to navigate all this

00:14:18.340 | You just create the leaderboard and you not only shame people who are wasting our tax dollars

00:14:23.260 | You celebrate the people who are heroes who start showing frugality and cost-saving and they're gonna do this with the leaderboard of the heroes

00:14:31.640 | And the goats this could be the unifying not just the Republican Party as a sax is pointing out Chamath

00:14:37.040 | I think this could unify the whole country

00:14:39.040 | Is there anybody paying taxes that wants to see money wasted that wants to see us pay people high salaries to not come to work?

00:14:46.080 | Chamath what's your take on the sequence of events here?

00:14:49.520 | What are easy layups that they could actually get done and then where is the machine gonna fight and try to stop this name? I?

00:14:57.360 | think you

00:14:59.880 | are highlighting something that they can do right away, which I think is very powerful, which is just using these distribution channels that

00:15:06.280 | Elon has now to create a massive layer of

00:15:10.360 | Accountability. I do think that sunshine is a really incredible

00:15:15.160 | Disinfectant, I think the best way that they could start if possible is to stop paying

00:15:21.560 | Their vendors until you actually have some amount of accounting to figure out as you said, how many?

00:15:29.120 | $600 soap dispensers are actually being bought and sold now

00:15:32.000 | That kind of whatever you want to call that corruption or grift

00:15:36.200 | It's not going to account for hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars

00:15:41.680 | But I do think that it is a very moral and symbolic win

00:15:45.320 | That says we're going we're going to start to get much more rational and it starts to allow

00:15:52.600 | the average American to actually feel like they have a little bit of control and they have a more vested interest in

00:15:59.280 | How the government spends money, but I want to actually want to take a step back for a second

00:16:04.600 | And before I talk about what doge can do

00:16:06.720 | I just want to highlight something that's been going on in California because I think it explains a lot in

00:16:12.600 | California and I'm just gonna read this that because it's incredible

00:16:15.880 | the regulatory burden in

00:16:18.720 | California as a state

00:16:21.240 | From 1997 to 2015. This is when the data is available that I found has increased by almost 50%

00:16:28.040 | as of May of

00:16:31.080 | 2022

00:16:33.440 | There are almost 61

00:16:35.440 | thousand

00:16:37.760 | individual regulations in the state of California

00:16:40.880 | So what does that mean and where does it come from and Nick if you can just put out the tweet it has happened

00:16:47.560 | over a period of time in

00:16:50.120 | Which the government has been the absolute?

00:16:53.640 | Singular source of employment in the state and

00:16:59.560 | we talked about this before where this is also a problem at the federal level when you look at GDP and job growth because it

00:17:07.240 | Looks like a lot of these jobs are actually fake

00:17:09.800 | Manufactured government type jobs. So why is this a problem you've seen in California? The issue that we have is that if you have a

00:17:18.400 | Growth in the number of employees in this case in California all the job growth in recent memory

00:17:23.160 | Has been state employees. What is the byproduct?

00:17:27.240 | Regulations go up. What is the byproduct of that?

00:17:30.400 | There are actually no private sector jobs and more to the point the private sector fleas

00:17:35.040 | So now let's bubble that up and look at the federal government Nick if you want to just show that chart that I that I sent

00:17:40.920 | you

00:17:41.680 | What is incredible J Cal is that the more people are hired by the government?

00:17:47.600 | Lo and behold, what do you see the number of regulations issued by federal agencies has just continued

00:17:54.280 | Unabated year-in year-out. You cannot run a country like this

00:17:59.480 | So because the

00:18:02.880 | Accumulate right Congress is doing less and less of a job actually trying to frame how the country should work

00:18:08.960 | That white space is filled in as Freeberg said by these federal agencies it

00:18:15.200 | Compounds and accumulates. This is not replacing laws. None of these regulations have expiry dates

00:18:20.600 | And so as a result, I think what you probably have is an incredible restraint on the u.s

00:18:27.520 | Economy, I think that the u.s. Economy could be growing at four or five percent

00:18:33.240 | But the reason that it doesn't grow at four or five percent is in that one single chart

00:18:38.120 | It is impossible to be able to live up to your economic potential when you have this burden on

00:18:44.920 | Your neck. So I think the real opportunity for Doge is to basically do whatever it needs to do using the law

00:18:52.680 | To wipe as many of these regulations off the books. We are better

00:18:58.120 | Cutting them all to zero and then finding the ones we really need and then repassing those

00:19:04.200 | Then we are going at this piecemeal and there's some incredible. There's some incredible ideas by the way that this creates

00:19:12.120 | Nick, I don't know if you can find this tweet, but Doge asked what people think of the IRS and

00:19:17.240 | There was an enormous amount of activity that essentially said give us a flat tax and wipe out the tax code

00:19:24.760 | The people were very flexible in the amount of tax that they were willing to pay

00:19:30.080 | But could you imagine the simplification in the tax code and the implications of that?

00:19:35.360 | I was in Singapore by the way ten days ago when I started my trip

00:19:38.920 | Nick beep out the name of the person I'm about to say, but I had a long meeting with who you know is there and

00:19:45.000 | I was asking him the complexity of

00:19:48.080 | Dealing with taxes. He's like, what do you mean? We don't we pay a very simple tax system

00:19:54.480 | There's no capital gains in Singapore. And so as a result our filing requirements are de minimis the small

00:19:59.900 | But as a result people like him meaning great entrepreneurs

00:20:04.240 | Can spend all their time thinking about what to build not not a tax optimization

00:20:09.320 | Exactly or not or how to account for it. So could you imagine if these guys basically use doge as a mechanism to?

00:20:15.760 | Shrink the tax code create a flat tax potentially. I know that that has to be passed by Congress. I understand that

00:20:22.520 | But the idea of just cutting this all the way down and then finding through that process what you actually need

00:20:31.280 | I think can find America a hundred two hundred basis points of GDP growth. It could be an economic renaissance

00:20:38.800 | I mean just to build on that cutting all the regulations to zero you might

00:20:42.600 | Have throw out some babies in the bath water. So why not put a clock on them and just say whenever this was enacted

00:20:48.640 | Plus five years and then it rolls off or plus two years whatever number of months and then you could have them come off

00:20:55.560 | Rolling off every month. I think that's a good idea, but it has no quarterly

00:21:00.200 | I think that's a good idea. But Jake, I think you first have to cancel all these regulations and then say whatever we need

00:21:06.600 | We will reenact

00:21:08.040 | Your point on a five-year shot clock that then has to be renewed in a new congressional period and I think that that's extremely healthy

00:21:15.680 | Well, because you know what people die paradigms shift and then nobody even remembers these regulations

00:21:21.160 | You have to do archaeology to figure out who created this

00:21:23.600 | What was the intent and you would never do that? You would never live sacks with all of these rules forever

00:21:29.960 | It's just one last comment in fairness to these government employees

00:21:33.020 | The one thing is that it's not their fault right meaning in the sense that they were hired into a regime

00:21:39.640 | Where the incentive was to regulate so that you had things to oversee and so they did their job

00:21:47.340 | In fact, I would say they did their job incredibly well

00:21:49.520 | But the point is that now we need to pivot for them to do a totally different job. Well Jamaa

00:21:53.920 | I'll hand this over to free free break free break if you

00:21:57.760 | Were to get rid of regulations as somebody working in the government you might work your way out of a job

00:22:03.080 | so the incentive is completely perverse and

00:22:05.920 | Reverse to what we actually need in the country

00:22:08.920 | which is less regulation more thoughtful regulation and some process by taking these things on and off the books and

00:22:14.440 | Adapting them to reality. Yeah, this is where I think I

00:22:17.880 | Think we've talked about this many too many times in the past

00:22:21.880 | But like all organizations have a natural tendency to grow they want to grow they're not yes

00:22:26.920 | like find me one nonprofit or find me one University or find me one company or

00:22:32.400 | One government agency that's ever said my job is to shrink myself. It's never happened. So why does that happen?

00:22:39.900 | Well, if you look at the like day-to-day

00:22:41.900 | Operating role of each individual over time like all individuals. They want to do more. They want to have a bigger impact

00:22:48.880 | They want to have more scale. They want to have more leverage

00:22:50.880 | So there's this natural set of incentives that drives a lot of choices and operating procedures on the ground

00:22:56.760 | That create more structure more scale more leverage and drive more hiring

00:23:01.520 | Everyone wants to become a manager of people they don't want to just be doing the same IC job forever individual contributor job forever

00:23:08.080 | So if they want to be a manager, they got to find more stuff to do and then they got to hire people to do

00:23:12.360 | That stuff so all of these organizations whether again and we've all been on boards of nonprofits

00:23:17.380 | I'm sure and we've all been involved in this sort of thing

00:23:19.680 | there's always this like

00:23:21.020 | Incentive to raise more capital to hire more people to do more stuff that sort of it's really unclear until you really dig into the

00:23:27.320 | Psychology of each individual person working there why this is happening

00:23:30.280 | I don't think that the federal government is any different each of these people feel they want to be more important

00:23:35.520 | They want to have a bigger role. They want to have a bigger impact

00:23:40.360 | If your job direct directionally is to regulate then what's the scaler on regulation more regulation?

00:23:47.220 | So therefore to do more you have to regulate more

00:23:50.020 | There's no regulator that says I want to regulate less over time because we've created a system that's one directional

00:23:55.820 | So you have to have these resets if you don't have them naturally

00:23:59.700 | they're gonna happen unnaturally in the form of social unrest and breakdowns of the economy and

00:24:04.900 | Collapse of social structures all these other things that happen way way down or as Chamath is pointing out in California in the economic

00:24:11.280 | structure of California

00:24:12.400 | Which I think is happening on a kind of national scale because of the outsized role the federal government plays

00:24:16.920 | In our national economy here today. So so you have to have these unnatural forces come in and and do this readjustment from time to time

00:24:24.120 | otherwise

00:24:26.200 | it's just gonna break on its own and

00:24:28.480 | Millet in Argentina has basically I don't know a year or an 18 month head start on us and has been doing this

00:24:36.040 | He did a great podcast with Lex Friedman

00:24:38.560 | They translated it. Actually, they dubbed it which is kind of interesting technology and

00:24:43.280 | in

00:24:45.600 | This discussion they talked about reducing the ministry's agencies from 20 to 8

00:24:50.440 | They fired 50,000 government workers 15% of the total workforce

00:24:55.560 | There were three hundred forty one thousand when he started they implemented daily

00:24:59.920 | Deregulation process to remove inefficient policies. So they just do that day in and day out

00:25:04.200 | They ended discretionary payments to provinces and cities the restored market-driven utility prices. No more subsidies

00:25:10.340 | Yada-yada-yada right down the line

00:25:12.880 | sacks your thoughts on

00:25:14.880 | How many months it will take to do this and there's this this discussion and I don't know if that's from inside

00:25:23.400 | The Trump administration of hey, we got to get this done in 18 months. We got to get this done in 18 months

00:25:28.000 | What can you tell us about the the sense of urgency?

00:25:30.000 | about getting this done quickly and

00:25:32.600 | Why that's occurring

00:25:35.920 | well, I think Elon and Vivek have announced that doge will be

00:25:40.160 | sunsetting or disbanding at the 250th anniversary of America, which would be

00:25:46.240 | July 4th of

00:25:49.080 | 1926 so they've only given themselves about what's at 18 months. Yep, which kind of makes sense, right?

00:25:55.680 | That's leading into the midterms, right? Right exactly you tend to have the most

00:25:59.200 | Momentum coming off an election like this one where you have the trifecta

00:26:04.020 | So I think that makes a lot of sense that they're gonna be able to have the greatest impact

00:26:08.400 | Let's say in the first year after the new

00:26:11.160 | President Congress gets sworn in. How do you get Democrats in on the sacks?

00:26:15.600 | How do you push them to join the party to join the movement to be more efficient to be more transparent?

00:26:22.560 | Is there a possibility for us to get some?

00:26:25.400 | Coordination here with the other side or no

00:26:28.200 | Maybe you might be able to get some support of particular Democrats on particular things. I don't want to say that it's not possible

00:26:34.400 | Difficult but not not impossible

00:26:37.800 | But look, I think what melee has done in Argentina is

00:26:43.160 | Remarkable. I mean that was a country. That was a total basket case inflation was out of control

00:26:48.320 | It's already because of the cuts he's made

00:26:50.320 | they now have a more normal inflation rate and they've gone from basically being

00:26:55.440 | Uninvestable to investable as a country now

00:26:59.560 | The United States is not the basket case that Argentina is but we are on an unsustainable

00:27:05.180 | Fiscal trajectory doge is also not going to have the power that melee has not gonna have the degrees of freedom to act

00:27:11.720 | But we also don't have as big a problem

00:27:14.160 | what we need to do is just bend our fiscal curve from being unsustainable to being sustainable and

00:27:19.760 | If we can do that, it'll have a huge impact on the economy

00:27:22.880 | Specifically what we saw in the last election the thing that probably hurt the Democrats the most was inflation

00:27:29.760 | Voters clearly do not like inflation. They do not like the diminishment of their purchasing power

00:27:35.340 | But how do you stop inflation you have to raise interest rates?

00:27:38.720 | and that's not good either because that raises the cost of a mortgage that raises the cost of a car payment is bad for

00:27:45.340 | Investment right because if interest rates are higher then that means the discount rate on

00:27:49.920 | stocks and real estate on every investment class basically is higher and

00:27:54.120 | The hurdle rate for investments higher so high interest rates are also bad for the economy

00:28:00.340 | So how do you get out of that box where you either have high inflation or high interest rates?

00:28:04.360 | The only way is to bend the fiscal curve to that more sustainable path

00:28:08.960 | And if you can and if you can do that, the bond markets will actually give you credit for it in advance

00:28:15.360 | Because they know that because they know that they're not gonna be flooded

00:28:19.380 | With the need to keep funding all of this US government debt

00:28:23.100 | So we either get to kind of you know startups have this saying about being either default alive or default dead

00:28:29.520 | We either get to default sustainable or default unsustainable right now

00:28:33.160 | We're unsustainable the bond markets know it inflation remains persistently high around 3%

00:28:38.520 | The Fed has not been able to cut interest rates the way that they expected to remember the markets were expecting

00:28:44.600 | 7 cuts this year. We got basically 3 we got a 50 and a 25

00:28:48.880 | So it's just hasn't been the cuts that people were expecting and that's because inflation hasn't come down as much to a thought

00:28:54.440 | So if doge working with the rest of the government OMB the Treasury

00:29:01.120 | Congress executive orders can now convince the markets that the US financial picture is more sustainable

00:29:07.040 | We'll get credit for that interest rates will come down and that'll lead to a boom in the economy

00:29:12.520 | So it's all win-win if they can pull this off

00:29:15.240 | Pre break any final thoughts here before we move on from doge wishing you on and Vivek as much success as possible

00:29:23.400 | We've really I mean everybody should be rooting for this. You want to give us your final thoughts? I

00:29:30.760 | Feel like America is

00:29:32.960 | Neo from the Matrix

00:29:35.400 | where there was like a thousand bullets being shot at America and

00:29:39.240 | We like literally had to dodge every single one of them in order to get to this this point

00:29:45.360 | Mmm, I again I am so shocked and surprised in a positive way

00:29:49.420 | That we ended up on this particular timeline look everything had to go the way it went for this to have happened

00:29:55.680 | Biden decided to run for

00:29:58.320 | Re-election Biden stayed in too long. They didn't run a primary. They put Kamala in

00:30:02.920 | Ilan all the fences which party won Ilan decided to throw a hundred million bucks at the problem. Ilan bought Twitter

00:30:09.520 | China had a real estate bubble

00:30:12.640 | I mean you can go down the list of things that had to go right for us to get to this very moment

00:30:17.720 | Where a small group of people have recognized the fiscal death spiral that the United States

00:30:24.840 | federal government has been in and have the authority and

00:30:28.880 | The capacity and the skills to be able to go and execute against a solution. I

00:30:33.880 | Have no idea how this could have been architected

00:30:37.800 | Maybe Saxon you all along and I convinced him two years ago that this was how things had to go and he's been designing it

00:30:43.160 | Like maybe you're talking about raid on the end of the Empire for three years

00:30:47.120 | Maybe we did it free bird. We give you credit when we talk with Dahlia about this. He's like, I've been a handful and

00:30:53.960 | also around

00:30:55.240 | The the relationship with China, which I think this is all very tightly related

00:30:58.640 | We may have dodged a lot of bullets

00:31:01.920 | Hmm and if the United States can get its house in order

00:31:05.000 | reduce federal spending while increasing

00:31:07.840 | economic activity

00:31:10.160 | It can be a tremendous unlock for the u.s. And for world peace

00:31:14.360 | So because again, I think that conflict arises when we don't have our own fiscal house in order

00:31:19.240 | And so I feel very positive more more surprised and positive than I was a year ago six months ago

00:31:26.160 | It's just amazing. We're on this timeline and I do think the United States as neo dodged a lot of bullets here

00:31:31.320 | I told you everything was proceeding as I had foreseen

00:31:34.320 | You know what happened to the ten-year and Elon and Vivek wrote that essay

00:31:39.840 | I don't actually don't what happened yields contracted by five basis points. You know what the value of that is

00:31:46.280 | Couple billion 15 billion per year. Yeah. Yeah, so so I think that it was probably a hundred billion dollar essay

00:31:54.400 | Just writing it. I think you will find that this doge is quite

00:31:59.800 | operational I

00:32:02.680 | Mean, I think it's got a chance. I mean

00:32:05.920 | Right, I want I want all I want all Americans and Democrats to stand up and say this is the right thing for the United

00:32:14.360 | States

00:32:16.360 | Essay saved us a hundred billion just the essay

00:32:19.600 | They're gonna have to be very strategic true about how they detailed what they're doing

00:32:28.600 | The the doge teams is gonna have to be very strategic to pick things that are consensus building

00:32:34.520 | That don't make people feel like this is gonna grind the poor more and make the rich richer. That's the expectation

00:32:41.840 | That's gonna be the negative framing on this I predict which is just a bunch of rich guys making cuts

00:32:47.160 | Talking their books making cuts for things that are their pet projects their investments

00:32:52.080 | They have to come out and not make it that they have to make it. Here's inefficiency. Here's inefficiency

00:32:57.120 | Here's inefficiency and a great way to do that would be to say the efficiency gains and the tax cuts are gonna go to people

00:33:03.120 | Making let's say under two hundred fifty thousand dollars. These are not these cuts are not being made just to make the rich richer

00:33:09.600 | That's gonna be the framing but just my best advice. Don't you think that that's gonna happen? No matter what?

00:33:14.360 | What which part of it that they're gonna say that no matter what so I actually disagree with the first part of what you said

00:33:21.280 | I agree with you that the media the mainstream media will try to characterize this as

00:33:25.680 | Hurting the poor I agree and I'm not sure yet. Yeah, whether I start or not

00:33:30.280 | Yeah, but I think the first part I disagree with is I don't think they should operate towards consensus

00:33:36.480 | I think that they should do what's right

00:33:38.720 | well, you could do what's right and you could start with things that are the most wasteful like if you start cutting kids lunches or

00:33:45.640 | Pellgrants

00:33:47.360 | Or you start cutting people's jobs to in health care education that people perceive are helping people

00:33:54.480 | I think you're gonna just feed into this narrative that it's a way to cut taxes on rich people

00:34:00.760 | And you know what? You do need to build consensus. How does this thing look as on rich people?

00:34:06.160 | If you cut regulations and a bunch of our companies benefit from it just to be self-aware

00:34:11.840 | the framing is already that this is an effort for companies that we invest in to

00:34:18.760 | Have less regulation to make the equity holders in those companies more rich

00:34:23.560 | I just have to make sure that the hold on it for all you have to make sure the savings is for all

00:34:28.440 | Americans and that all Americans benefit from it and the way they benefit it the best framing they could do is

00:34:33.320 | Your taxes are gonna be lower because you're not wasting your tax dollars if they can keep to that not hey

00:34:39.640 | We're moving regulation so that our company needs to be honest with her

00:34:43.120 | Yeah, being a hairdresser requires more regulation than being any one of most of my companies

00:34:48.320 | So I actually think it better percent

00:34:49.840 | I think it benefits other people way way more than it benefits me and you have to use it as my point show it

00:34:55.800 | That's the point is you have to show people that you're doing this for everybody

00:34:59.840 | Not just for the people on this podcast and our friends that's gonna be the key what sum up just said is so important

00:35:06.240 | There's a great interview

00:35:07.120 | I've mentioned this in the past between Tim Ferriss and Charles Koch from a couple years ago where he brings up this exact example

00:35:13.320 | Yes about how regulatory burdens make it difficult for women to become hairdressers

00:35:17.920 | It's like $7,000 so they don't have the capital to do that because of the regulatory

00:35:21.920 | Yeah burden to get there think about building building your home or you know

00:35:26.160 | Like let's say you want to change put a shower in your bathroom change the shower in your bathroom

00:35:30.320 | You don't want to spend $15,000 on all the permitting regulatory stuff to make that happen. It's gonna unlock value for everyone

00:35:36.840 | That's a small example of kind of a regulatory problem

00:35:39.280 | But this benefits everyone and the cost of my point is you have to communicate that you have to be able to communicate that and

00:35:46.560 | That's where using the launch platform

00:35:51.720 | Perfect job of communicating this to people and that's the playbook Freeberg. That's my point

00:35:56.200 | People are gonna fight this you have to convince them. You have to show them that this is helping everybody

00:36:01.800 | Can we just agree that they're okay, but that's different than how you started you said only work on consensus projects

00:36:07.000 | I don't know. I didn't say that. I think you have that

00:36:09.000 | Them first I said do those first make sure that people understand. This is to save them money

00:36:14.480 | I'm not saying that you don't change regulations for

00:36:17.760 | Spaceships and self-driving cars as well

00:36:19.840 | but you have to make sure you show people that this can benefit them or else they're gonna just fight it and

00:36:25.400 | That and that's gonna be the whole all this effort will be for not

00:36:28.440 | if you if you get a bunch of Republicans sacks who start fighting this and you have a splintering in your party because

00:36:34.280 | They feel like this isn't helping their local constituents. This whole thing could be for not

00:36:38.840 | That's my story that you told is gonna be told by the legacy media and all the haters and the enemies

00:36:47.000 | Regardless of what?

00:36:49.000 | I don't think so. I think

00:36:51.400 | You show people on haters

00:36:56.600 | I'm talking about the public election now is the time to implement when you show people

00:37:02.960 | $22,000, you know hammers and wasted money. You will get a hundred percent of Americans

00:37:08.640 | Backing this now 60 minutes been doing that for 30 years. Nothing's happened. We got to just act now

00:37:14.880 | Yeah act and bring people on with communications. I mean if you got if you're

00:37:18.460 | Poorly great not for it. Yeah, I'm not saying that communication isn't part of the job

00:37:23.940 | In fact this whole conversation started by us talking about an op-ed

00:37:27.600 | Yes, Vivek wrote correct and we're doing a podcast right in which they're laying out their objectives and they're doing podcasts

00:37:34.360 | And yeah, Elon has the biggest following in the world and biggest following

00:37:38.200 | so I just don't think communications can be the problem, but you're also not gonna be able to convince everyone and

00:37:43.520 | You know, we've already won the election and now's the time to figure out very strategically how to implement as much as possible

00:37:49.280 | Be humble by two million votes. Keep it in mind. You have to bring everybody along. Okay, you know what?

00:37:54.680 | It was fair. It would been 20 million votes for Trump. I have one under these circumstances and he won the trifecta

00:38:01.520 | It's impressive

00:38:04.360 | Nobody's saying it's not it. I'm not minimizing it. I'm just saying be aware

00:38:08.440 | There's 74 million people who are rooting against Trump and I think getting some know them. I'm not true. That's not true

00:38:15.760 | I think there's a decent number of people who are probably very upset that you know

00:38:20.040 | Trump won just like last time they were upset that Biden won

00:38:22.800 | Including all Americans in this is the most virtuous thing you can do. I think everybody should get on board

00:38:29.240 | I think it I think it's deranged the idea that 74 million people are actually rooting against him

00:38:33.640 | I don't think that that's true. I don't there's a feel good that they lost people don't feel good about losing

00:38:38.560 | Bringing those people on board is virtuous dude. There's already been a huge five shifts in the country. Have you seen the Trump dance?

00:38:45.320 | I mean, there's been such a vibe shit. Let's see it. Let's see it

00:38:49.360 | I'm not gonna do it right now, but there's been such a huge vibe shift

00:38:52.300 | The energy right now is incredible and I think people are feeling much more optimistic

00:39:02.680 | can you imagine what a downer would it be if like we were expecting President Kamala Harris to take the oath of

00:39:08.040 | It would be a downer to me if there was still pushing a seven point two trillion dollar federal budget next year

00:39:15.040 | That would be a downer. And by the way, I think that there's a deeply linked relationship between social issues

00:39:21.560 | economic issues political policies and

00:39:24.640 | foreign conflict they all seem like they're four different things, but they're so tightly interwound and

00:39:31.760 | It's interesting how everything kind of moves together with this shift in who ended up wanting winning this election cycle

00:39:38.360 | And I think it really speaks to the relationship between the four. Well, by the way, there's a great meme

00:39:44.420 | that was floating around where it showed a photo of

00:39:47.200 | Trump Elon Bobby Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard and it said that all for the fuel used to be Democrats. Yep. Yep

00:39:56.000 | Rogan in it. I tweeted that

00:39:59.760 | It used to be that that Democrats were progressive progressive means progress looking forward and the last decade the last couple years in particular

00:40:07.720 | I think a lot of people that I know that are former Democrats and Chamath you can speak for yourself

00:40:12.440 | feel like the Democrats stopped looking forward and it was all about trying to like

00:40:17.460 | pessimistic and

00:40:19.600 | Grievance and vengeful and all of a sudden you've got guys like Elon

00:40:22.880 | Promoting themselves as Republicans highlighting that it's all this is the party that looks forward. This is the party that drives progress

00:40:29.920 | It's an amazing shift. I

00:40:31.920 | Don't know if there's been anything like it that's happened this quickly

00:40:35.120 | And I voted more to make America great again than I did vote for being a Republican

00:40:40.960 | I think that the Republican Party right totally

00:40:43.360 | Is is less important than it's ever been and I think MAGA is more important than it's ever been

00:40:48.840 | I agree, and I'd say the biggest risk to the whole agenda. It probably is not the Democrats

00:40:53.800 | it's actually some of these old bulls in Congress who are

00:40:59.640 | Anti MAGA for some reason Trump is the one who just won the trifecta. He does won this big election

00:41:05.540 | If you stick with the old Republican message, you're just a surefire loser

00:41:09.620 | So give Trump his due as the leader of the party realizes now a MAGA party and let's get some things done

00:41:16.920 | If the reform agenda fails to be frank, it probably is not gonna be the Democrats

00:41:23.120 | It's probably going to be these holdouts and the Republican Party. Yeah

00:41:28.120 | Yeah, yeah, that was my question earlier. I think I asked it twice. I didn't get anybody to engage in it

00:41:32.360 | How do you convince them? How are they being brought on board to this if they have all this pork barrel spending?

00:41:37.800 | Is there a strategy there? Would you have a strategy?

00:41:39.880 | I think sacks laid it out, which is that if you use the combination of the carrot and the stick I think the carrot is

00:41:45.720 | Creating transparency and I think the other part of the carrot is

00:41:52.840 | You'll have now an extremely well-funded pack that can support people who are on board with this agenda

00:41:59.760 | But the stick is if you don't I think that if Elon makes us a really concerted

00:42:05.240 | Long-term part of his strategy then I think you should run candidates who actually are aligned with the agenda

00:42:10.640 | That the make America great again movement wants

00:42:14.880 | so I think that's the carrot and stick Jason, which is like some of these old Republicans will have to decide do I

00:42:21.800 | basically help invest in a renewal of the American spirit or do I keep pushing back because I like the way it was and

00:42:27.200 | I want to go to war and I want to cozy up to these lobbyists. I think those folks are gonna have a very

00:42:31.960 | tough

00:42:34.140 | Four and eight years because I think you'll see a bunch of MAGA candidates rising up to run against them

00:42:39.440 | Everywhere in the United States as you can see my young apprentice your friends have failed

00:42:45.160 | Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational battle station, man

00:42:51.760 | I said be humble like three times. None of it's sinking in

00:42:55.280 | No, I just explained I explained the rest. I've been very clear. You're not gonna get Milton Friedman

00:43:01.320 | Okay, you're not gonna get Javier. Malay. Well, we can hopefully get as a bending of the curve towards sustainable

00:43:06.360 | I mean my expectations to be realistic. Okay, I mean breaking even would be great if we do just weren't adding to the debt

00:43:14.360 | That would be amazing

00:43:16.360 | Look if the federal budget gets to three trillion

00:43:19.960 | And

00:43:21.520 | regulation gets cut if you get

00:43:23.520 | 50% of

00:43:25.440 | The regulations in federal agencies cut I think you unleash an economic sonic boom

00:43:31.600 | I'm all in and I think I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen. My gosh

00:43:36.640 | Could you imagine America clocking in?

00:43:38.640 | Regulatory, I mean how much you guys start with your own knees zero. I'm dealing not a real regulatory

00:43:46.080 | The regulatory stuff is brutal man. I mean like what it's legit brain like melting

00:43:51.880 | Tell me your number one regulatory

00:43:54.640 | Frustration we can go around the horn. This is a great topic. Actually, I don't have any I think I'm very blessed to work in an industry

00:44:00.760 | That's very light with regulation

00:44:02.600 | I think it affects many many other industries that if they were unleashed could contribute to American real estate

00:44:08.800 | construction

00:44:11.320 | Regulations are very regressive because they touch poor and middle-income people way more than it touch folks like me

00:44:18.200 | Rip these regulations out

00:44:21.040 | To regulations that do affect you crypto regulation and capital formation. Both of those things are

00:44:28.240 | They haven't heard this is my project, but they definitely are

00:44:32.760 | Economy, right? I can snap a finger and raise a couple billion dollars

00:44:36.400 | That is not it's so I'm in a unique position and I and I recognize that what is much harder

00:44:40.920 | is if you're trying to be an

00:44:42.920 | Electrician if you're trying to be a hairdresser if you're trying to be a massage therapist when you have to spend

00:44:47.440 | 15 20 30 percent of your salary on licensure. Why?

00:44:51.280 | Why do we need the rules totally if you're a person that's trying to like construct a home

00:44:57.320 | Why does it take six and eight weeks to get permits approved? Why?

00:45:00.600 | And there are no good answers for these things. So forget about me like it doesn't matter about me

00:45:06.520 | But the mainline part of the United States economy as I said before is a coiled spring if you get rid of those regulations

00:45:13.440 | It disproportionately impacts middle income and lower middle income jobs

00:45:18.560 | This is why if you if you see if you see GDP if America clocks in GDP at four to four and a half percent

00:45:25.560 | Watch out folks

00:45:28.520 | Sonic boom watch out. I'll give you two really simple ones allowing

00:45:33.600 | Everybody in the United States to participate in company formation would change everything

00:45:39.020 | 95% of the company cannot participate in investing in startups or any, you know, new

00:45:46.120 | I think it would be a massive freedom to operate just freedom to do stuff. You know, that's what it is

00:45:53.680 | I mean, you're free to go to Vegas and gamble you're free to you know, play, you know

00:45:58.640 | I think the next order you're not free to buy Bitcoin. You're not free to buy you are free to buy Bitcoin

00:46:03.920 | You can buy what you can yeah, but you're not free to create a token, right?

00:46:07.480 | Of regulation, I think there's many more traditional

00:46:11.920 | Forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make ICOs

00:46:16.280 | Legal and easier. I want to say something. I think that the person that runs for governor in, California

00:46:22.800 | Should commit to cutting those 65,000 regulations down to 10,000 as needed

00:46:29.600 | to replacing the DMV with a digital app and

00:46:34.200 | To cut taxes to near zero and to create school choice

00:46:38.900 | Whoever does that will create a renaissance in California

00:46:43.280 | It's the fifth largest economy in the world folks, and it can be a bellwether for the rest of the world

00:46:49.040 | well, you know there there's a lot of scuttlebutt online that Nicole Shanahan is gonna run for governor of California and

00:46:55.440 | I'd be all in favor of that. I would say that of all the

00:46:59.200 | Political personalities involved in the election over the past year. She gets my most improved award

00:47:06.400 | I remember when like Bobby named her to his ticket

00:47:09.160 | I was a little bit skeptical of that choice

00:47:11.160 | Because of some of the causes that she had identified with or donated to in the past

00:47:15.200 | But she I think has ended up being a star. She's pretty based. She's a yeah, totally

00:47:21.040 | I mean, she's she's red-pilled and ended up supporting

00:47:23.200 | my hat and Maga and

00:47:26.280 | I don't think we're gonna get anyone better in, California. So she's wanted to do it and take it on. That'd be awesome

00:47:32.360 | Sacks, what about you? You don't want you don't want that that mansion

00:47:36.180 | It'd be a significant downgrade for me. That's about to say

00:47:44.000 | Easy what yeah, you could live in the governor's mansion also known as smaller than your guest house

00:47:49.200 | That'll be your backup man cave. Well, actually that's happened people have in New York

00:47:55.040 | I remember one of the governors was like, yeah, you know, I'm good. I don't need to live in the mansion

00:47:59.080 | Where do you want to go next boys? We have other things on the docket

00:48:02.260 | Would you like to go to our war correspondent? Would you like to go home Google breakup? Would you like to go Nvidia?

00:48:08.520 | Where would you like to go World War three? I think is important sacks. You put World War three on the docket

00:48:13.480 | Would you like to teed up for us? Yeah

00:48:15.480 | Sure. Well, there's a several events that have happened in reasonably close succession

00:48:20.320 | The first thing to understand is what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. The Ukrainians been losing territory and accelerating pace

00:48:27.280 | There's an excellent graphic in the New York Times that I'll put on the screen that shows this it's not a stalemate

00:48:33.320 | Remember I said on this podcast

00:48:35.320 | Six months or a year ago that it was no longer a stalemate

00:48:38.800 | it was a war of attrition in which the Ukrainians were now losing and

00:48:42.160 | Every single month now the Russians are taking more and more territory again. The curve is accelerating

00:48:46.540 | We'd all invest in a business who had a growth curve that looked like this. So not good news for the Ukrainians in

00:48:51.920 | Response to that. I think that's funnily the condition on the ground that's created the next set of actions

00:48:57.080 | Which is the Biden administration finally approved the use of long-range missiles attack

00:49:02.720 | Um's missile storm shadows to hit territory deep inside of Russia the Russians

00:49:07.700 | Believe and I don't know whether this is true or not

00:49:10.480 | but what they say is that those weapons cannot be operated without

00:49:14.000 | Americans or British

00:49:17.120 | Operators being there to you know, they're too complicated for the Ukrainians just to use on their own

00:49:21.840 | so they the Russians view this as not just a direct attack on their homeland on their motherland, but also a

00:49:30.040 | direct involvement by

00:49:32.400 | the NATO allies United States and

00:49:35.160 | Britain in the war and that is a big escalation

00:49:39.760 | You know a lot of people say that

00:49:41.760 | The Russians have all these red lines we keep crossing and they don't do anything

00:49:45.600 | That's not true

00:49:46.160 | If you actually listen to what the Russians have said there's only been two red lines

00:49:50.120 | the first red line was they said they would not accept NATO expanding to Ukraine and

00:49:55.040 | They proved their

00:49:57.400 | Seriousness on that issue by invading Ukraine in February of 2022. The second red line is they said that they would not accept

00:50:06.000 | American long-range missiles being used to target inside of Russia and that line has now been crossed

00:50:12.240 | So this leads us to the next set of events, which is

00:50:15.740 | Russia just used what may be some people are saying it's an ICBM, but it probably is more likely to be

00:50:23.120 | Not an intercontinental but an intermediate range

00:50:26.240 | ballistic missile that hit a

00:50:29.840 | Ukrainian city and it's obviously it didn't carry a nuclear payload, but it's the type of

00:50:36.160 | ballistic missile that is used to carry

00:50:38.940 | Nuclear weapons. There are a couple of features of this that I think are really important number one

00:50:44.520 | It's a hypersonic missile it hit the target at something like Mach 10

00:50:48.080 | What that means is that it just can't be intercepted is too fast

00:50:51.720 | the the West and the United States in particular does not as far as we know have a

00:50:56.280 | Technology to intercept a hypersonic missile like that. The second is that it had what's called a Merv?

00:51:03.360 | Warhead or payload Merv is multiple

00:51:06.480 | independently targeted

00:51:09.040 | Reentry vehicles basically what it means is the warhead splits up, right when it gets close to the ground

00:51:14.400 | It splits into six separate warheads. And the reason for this as I understand it is diabolical again

00:51:20.240 | It's just if you're launching nuclear weapon

00:51:22.840 | It just makes it that much harder to now intercept it because now you've got six warheads hitting you instead of just one

00:51:29.320 | so I mean

00:51:31.760 | as I understand a missile like this has never been used before and what the Russians are doing obviously is

00:51:36.520 | Sending us a signal and what that message is is that they're saying we have the means to hit any

00:51:43.440 | European city or any European asset

00:51:46.640 | With a hypersonic missile that you can't stop that may or may not have a nuclear warhead

00:51:53.880 | attached to it and

00:51:56.040 | It's just a way of them expressing their seriousness and displeasure and and and reacting to an escalating in response to the fact

00:52:03.760 | That we are now allowing

00:52:05.760 | Western missiles to be hitting targets deep inside of Russia. So the bottom line is this war is escalating

00:52:11.360 | It's escalating to we're good and at some point soon

00:52:14.600 | Yeah, it's really we're gonna have to get off of this escalatory

00:52:19.080 | totally or we're gonna end up in a really disastrous place and just the last final point is

00:52:24.200 | It's absolutely remarkable that Biden decided to take us to this place with what just six weeks left in his term

00:52:32.360 | Completely as a lame-duck president. What is his mandate for doing that for taking this extraordinary risk on behalf of the country?

00:52:40.280 | The voters just voted for Trump who made it really clear

00:52:43.280 | He wanted to end the war and Biden and his team have unilaterally now escalated this war

00:52:48.400 | They did it without consulting with Trump's team

00:52:50.720 | At least that's what was publicly reported is there was no briefing set up for Trump's transition team

00:52:56.080 | So you have here Biden his team taking a unilateral action to expand and escalate this war

00:53:01.960 | Even when he's a lame-duck president and the question you have to ask is why what is the point of this?

00:53:06.520 | Well, I think it's just completely deranged because it's not just that forget Biden and Trump for a second if you take a step back

00:53:15.000 | What was voted in?

00:53:18.240 | Was to end this war and for the United States to get our hands out of it

00:53:23.440 | So you couldn't have a clearer message to the sitting president in the White House, which is this is not what?

00:53:29.440 | Americans want and

00:53:31.640 | So to basically ignore the will of the voters and to essentially go and push another country into the brink

00:53:38.640 | I think is so incredibly responsible and you know other times we've said in the past

00:53:43.200 | Take Donald Trump

00:53:45.920 | Seriously, but not literally

00:53:48.440 | Russia you should take seriously and

00:53:50.440 | literally

00:53:52.560 | Because they actually write it down for you and tell you and so when they said

00:53:57.080 | Every act of aggression from now on is going to be

00:54:00.000 | Viewed by us on a look-through basis to the actual country that is enabling this to happen

00:54:05.600 | You couldn't be more clear, but Americans couldn't have been more clear, which is we don't want this war anymore

00:54:11.280 | And I just think it's really deranged what the Biden White House is doing. It's incredibly dangerous

00:54:17.280 | By the way, not to mention. It's incredibly costly as well

00:54:19.920 | I mean, we've had like some last-minute efforts to sort of tamp down on these last-minute budget approvals and whatnot

00:54:25.360 | but we're talking about tens and hundreds of billions of dollars that we're giving on top of the risk of of

00:54:30.320 | Nuclear escalation. I just think it's absolutely crazy. It's absolutely crazy. Putin is not a dummy

00:54:36.800 | He has heard and seen

00:54:39.440 | Trump's campaign rhetoric and

00:54:44.680 | Sacks, I don't know if this is this has been publicly reported that he had a call with with Trump after the the election victory

00:54:52.480 | Does Putin not see that in a couple of weeks a couple of months?

00:54:56.840 | There will be new leadership in the White House and there's gonna be a path to a resolution here

00:55:02.040 | Like does that not give us all a little bit of reprieve that this is not going to escalate because everyone's waiting for January 20th

00:55:09.180 | Oh, I mean for sure. I mean, thank goodness

00:55:12.080 | I would say that we have a new president coming in who does not own this war

00:55:15.800 | I mean the problem with Biden is that he completely owns this war and he does not want to admit defeat

00:55:21.440 | And so what you've seen is that over the last couple of years every weapon system that Biden said he wouldn't give

00:55:27.960 | To Ukraine because it could literally cause World War three. These are Biden's words

00:55:31.680 | He said it could be Armageddon if we gave Ukraine f-16s

00:55:35.320 | It could be Armageddon if we gave them Abrams tanks

00:55:37.720 | it would be Armageddon if we gave them high Mars and attack 'em's and

00:55:41.640 | Could lead to World War three if we let them hit targets inside of Russia. These are Biden's words and

00:55:46.320 | He has basically given it on every single one of those points because he's so committed to this policy, right?

00:55:52.760 | He's he's in the quagmire. He can only double down. He doesn't know how to extricate himself and

00:55:57.480 | Now we don't know exactly what Kamala Harris would have done

00:56:00.500 | But I think probably she would have inherited Joe Biden's policy and likely

00:56:04.240 | Continued it and I think we have a wonderful opportunity here with Trump taking office. He doesn't own this policy

00:56:09.840 | he can look at it with fresh eyes and

00:56:11.840 | Most importantly he campaigned on ending the war so he has the mandate of the American people to stop it

00:56:18.400 | All I can say is thank goodness and we just need to get through the next two months

00:56:22.440 | We just need to get to January 20th without there being some new

00:56:25.840 | horrible escalation in this war

00:56:30.920 | He's by Joe Biden is martin galing that's his strategy for the Ukraine-Russia war just keep doubling down and doubling down

00:56:38.680 | Oh, yeah, do you wanna explain what that is? Oh, yeah. Sorry

00:56:41.760 | Martin galing is a strategy in gambling where let's just say, you know

00:56:45.560 | You start betting $1 and you lose

00:56:47.400 | your next bet is $2 if you lose your next bet is $4 if you lose your next bet is $8 and

00:56:52.760 | Eventually you'll win once is the theory

00:56:56.400 | But there's many times where Martin galing does not work, but you only win $1

00:57:00.320 | So you could be betting, you know

00:57:03.360 | 80, you know 40 bucks 80 bucks $160

00:57:07.200 | $320 and then you finally win and you win $1 right or or you go broke

00:57:12.280 | That's a great analogy because you can also go broke, right?

00:57:14.880 | Caps at the roulette table

00:57:18.160 | One time I would do this. That's why all casinos have a max

00:57:21.680 | Yeah, so I would do this as a joke with my wife or when I was at the World Service of poker

00:57:25.640 | I'd be like I'm gonna pay for dinner or lunch or whatever and I put a hundred dollars on black lose

00:57:29.840 | put 200 on black win go pay for lunch and I did it one time at the

00:57:34.920 | WSOP and I went 100 200 400 800

00:57:38.880 | 1600 I ran out of cash. I got 3200 from my friend. I put it down the floor man came over and said

00:57:44.880 | That's your last bet. Oh

00:57:46.640 | No, my buddy and I

00:57:48.640 | If you do this, yeah in our college years early 20s, we would go to drink for free at the casino

00:57:55.320 | You just sit at the blackjack table and just yeah

00:57:57.320 | I mean if you bet a dollar and then you bet two bucks

00:58:05.240 | You can just keep drinking for free for like two or three hours and then go out and enjoy your night

00:58:09.080 | You've made 15 bucks and call it enough. Did I tell you about the losing a million dollars playing roulette? No

00:58:14.760 | me

00:58:17.560 | Nick you got to beep out the names me. It was me

00:58:22.560 | And tell me this you did tell me this yeah, this is so good says guys have developed a system it's full

00:58:28.680 | That's always what happens before you lose a million and he says that it's like we need to risk a million

00:58:35.560 | We can win like two or three

00:58:38.040 | And it's like ninety nine point nine nine six percent

00:58:42.120 | So so I say to him. So are you really telling me that we just have to fade?

00:58:47.640 | Point zero zero four percent chance of like total loss. Mm-hmm, and he says yep. Well, guess what hit the point?

00:58:54.960 | percent shot

00:58:57.880 | Me slowly and and it was devastating. I just kept looking at this thing. Like what just happened. He's like, oh we lost

00:59:04.880 | Yeah, and I was like there it is folks. I never again. I've never gonna play roulette again

00:59:09.280 | I think the gambling analogies are the right analogies cuz I look I'm not saying World War three is gonna happen

00:59:14.400 | I've never said World War three is gonna happen

00:59:15.960 | I'm saying that there's a risk of World War three and I don't need the risk to be very high to be very worried about

00:59:20.400 | It because it would be such a disaster often, right?

00:59:23.560 | Exactly. So I want to minimize risk of ruin. I want to exactly I want there to be hopefully a zero risk of that

00:59:30.740 | But you know, what's interesting is remember just like a week or two ago

00:59:33.800 | President Trump made that trip to DC and he met with Biden in the Oval Office and Biden had this he was like all smiles

00:59:41.640 | and I'm everyone's like wondering why is he so happy and the speculation was

00:59:47.000 | That he somehow wanted a common to lose or something

00:59:50.440 | But now you think back on this he must have known he was about to authorize this decision

00:59:55.640 | So what he's doing here, he's grin

00:59:58.300 | He's grin Trump. He knows he's about to give Trump this horrible hand, right?

01:00:04.280 | He's about to make this situation in Ukraine so much worse

01:00:08.080 | So that Trump will have to inherit this mess. That is like the definition of grin

01:00:12.660 | Yeah, he definitely knew more than that picture let on because a lot of the interpretation of that picture was

01:00:19.560 | They are getting along. He's being super gracious. What an incredible gesture. It just looked like very

01:00:25.880 | He promised a smooth transition of power and then we find out that he didn't confer with his successor about

01:00:33.040 | this extraordinarily

01:00:36.160 | Meaningful decision to escalate the escalation. Yeah, it's like that's just crazy. It's crazy

01:00:43.080 | You guys want to do science corner? I got one for you. Yeah

01:00:47.000 | All right, your super fans are desperate for a science corner. Give him one free board. Give him something

01:00:53.200 | All right, I will give you guys something here. Here's a depressing

01:00:57.440 | Paper that was published in the journal nature just this week

01:01:01.680 | research team out of Switzerland

01:01:05.200 | going over to the Swiss where they are conducting extraordinary research in

01:01:09.260 | the

01:01:11.400 | Epigenetics of fat cells in so we're gonna fat shame me on the science corner. Go ahead. Great

01:01:17.120 | No, we're actually gonna understand perhaps why it is difficult for people that have been overweight

01:01:22.760 | Yes to keep the weight off. I did this and I think it's fascinating. Yeah, explain it. It is it is really incredible

01:01:29.880 | So remember we've talked about this many times in the past

01:01:32.480 | but every cell has your whole all your DNA all your genes and

01:01:35.920 | Certain genes are turned on or off in different cells and those genes being on or off

01:01:42.800 | Differentiates those cells and causes them to act differently

01:01:45.960 | That's the difference between an eye cell and a skin cell and a heart cell is they have different genes that are upregulated downregulated

01:01:51.840 | turned on and turned off and

01:01:53.920 | Even when you have different kinds of cells you have certain genes that are overexpressed or underexpressed or overregulated or upregulated or downregulated

01:02:00.340 | So that means that those genes are turning pumping out certain proteins that do certain things in that particular cell

01:02:06.860 | So what these folks did is they wanted to understand what is the epigenome meaning?

01:02:12.860 | What are the genes that are turned on or off or upregulated and downregulated in?

01:02:17.540 | fat tissue and fat cells and

01:02:20.820 | Does the epigenome change

01:02:25.740 | When an individual loses weight, so once they're obese and

01:02:29.980 | They lose weight to the fat cells actually change their epigenome or date. Do they have an epigenetic memory?

01:02:37.280 | Meaning that those cells even though the person has lost weight those cells

01:02:40.820 | Still continue to act as if that person were obese. So I'll tell you in humans

01:02:46.220 | They basically took five individuals that were obese and lost more than 25% BMI and they looked at the epigenome

01:02:53.940 | They looked at the markers of what genes are upregulated and downregulated before and after they lost the weight

01:02:58.860 | After they lost the weight there were a set of markers that were still upregulated that are associated with poor

01:03:05.620 | Metabolism and increased fibrosis and increased cellular death. So these are inflammatory genes

01:03:11.980 | These are genes that are associated with the cells being inefficient that utilizing glucose to create energy

01:03:16.980 | And so these cells continue to act like slow dying cells

01:03:21.860 | even after the person lost weight and they did the same thing in mice and they found similar results that they

01:03:28.100 | Caused these mice to gain weight

01:03:30.340 | Looked at the epigenome of the fat cells and then looked at the epigenome after they lost the weight and again the mouse

01:03:36.580 | Epigenome continued to act as if the mouse was obese. And what this means is that the metabolism remained reduced

01:03:44.740 | Fibrosis remained elevated and likelihood of cell death remained elevated

01:03:48.300 | so now they applied glucose in a petri dish to those cells and they saw that the

01:03:52.900 | Glucose had a harder time being fully being appropriately utilized from a healthy fat cell that hadn't been obese

01:04:00.460 | So it actually permanently alters and creates an epigenetic memory in the fat cells

01:04:05.860 | After obesity and this could explain

01:04:09.540 | Pretty significantly why when people that have been obese lose the weight

01:04:13.540 | they are more likely to gain the weight back and have a

01:04:16.760 | Weight off you're referring to yes, and that makes total sense because anybody who's added weight chamath if that you add but

01:04:24.460 | You know, you eat one extra Oreo a week. That's 3,500 calories

01:04:29.340 | You do that over 20 years all of a sudden you wake up one day you're 20 30 pounds overweight

01:04:33.900 | like I was three or four years ago and this is why I think

01:04:36.180 | Ozempic and we go V and on journal and all these things are so great because it does seem like it breaks you through that. No

01:04:41.980 | Well the problem what we do see in all those results that when you go off of the glp1 agonist grugs

01:04:48.440 | You gain the weight back very quickly. This is some amount of weight. Yeah

01:04:53.100 | It's a pretty significant bounce-back effect. So and and this is pretty well documented and

01:04:59.180 | So I think that it speaks to the why now the it also introduces an opportunity

01:05:04.540 | hmm, there are molecules that can turn certain genes on or off can now be identified and

01:05:09.180 | Utilized to change that epigenetic memory. So now there's that switch in addition

01:05:14.660 | Yeah, exactly. This could arise from things like increased exercise. It turns out that when you do significant amounts of cardiovascular exercise

01:05:22.540 | there are certain genes that are expressed that trigger other genes to switch on or off and so we can start to identify those particular

01:05:29.740 | molecules and

01:05:32.460 | produce either supplements or

01:05:34.540 | Additional drugs or combo therapies that can both knock the weight off and keep it off by changing the epigenetic memory in those cells

01:05:43.140 | Wow, and so it introduces a whole new class of opportunity

01:05:46.300 | For folks to explore how do we help folks that are obese lose the weight and then flip the switch that they can keep the

01:05:52.140 | Weight off. I've been doing rocking. This is like the old man activity that Peter Attia and these guys are all you put weights on

01:05:59.100 | And you like go walking where if I started with a 10-pound weight vest now, I'm at 35 pounds

01:06:04.100 | I do a mile and a half hike every day with 35 pounds on man. I fall asleep

01:06:08.580 | immediately and the amount of

01:06:11.340 | Intensity that puts on your body you do it right before you go to bed

01:06:14.860 | No, no, I do it anytime during the day, but I'm just saying it's it's I'm focused on four things right now with my health diet

01:06:21.260 | sleep

01:06:22.980 | Exercise meditation and I try to do all four each day

01:06:26.220 | But the rocking specifically in this zone two stuff is what they say 40 50 year old should focus on so that's what I'm focused on

01:06:33.300 | But that rocking man, does it make your whole body strong? I highly recommend it. It's really transformative

01:06:38.580 | My meditation is reading those essays for Chamath Palihapitiya

01:06:43.060 | German dictator

01:06:45.740 | 80/90 he's running a software company services company great. Look at you in the driver's seat

01:06:51.460 | David Friedberg your Sultan of science working on a hollow and the architect the rain man

01:06:58.100 | yeah, definitely David sack from craft ventures and

01:07:02.020 | Maybe it's gonna be involved in doge. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sacks doge

01:07:07.060 | Hook up in the future. I don't know. I'm taking a guess here. I am

01:07:11.060 | Your host here Jason Calacanis

01:07:14.860 | See you all on December 7th live or in person by the way, did you guys see this spectacular?

01:07:20.940 | Did you see this tweet from Brian Johnson?

01:07:22.940 | He tweeted out all of his blood levels. This is

01:07:26.340 | Incredible. I love this guy. Look at these results

01:07:29.340 | They're incredible if he can break this down into like a turnkey thing that mmm normal folks like us can

01:07:36.300 | follow

01:07:38.500 | for people who don't know

01:07:40.140 | What this kid's doing is he is spending like three million dollars a year or something to that effect on his own personal health

01:07:47.500 | Documenting it sharing it everything from sleep

01:07:50.860 | To his bone density. Everything is an open book and he's made some products out of it as well

01:07:56.620 | So you can you can eat his pudding - if you're interested in it, but I don't think it's as good as how do you follow?

01:08:01.660 | His regimen, you know what? I mean? Like it just seems too hard. You can't have a job

01:08:05.540 | I mean he's doing it's like he's got two jobs right now doing all this stuff. His biomarkers are showing

01:08:09.900 | He's ten years younger than his actual biological age

01:08:12.180 | Dude, look at some of these results his his speed of aging. He says his birthday now happens every 19 months

01:08:20.020 | What the?

01:08:22.740 | Freeberg I

01:08:26.220 | Mean free bird you you look at what do you think your science from a science perspective any thoughts on all this?

01:08:32.020 | Well, I think his nighttime erection rate is pretty impressive. Not three hours and eight minutes for a nighttime erection

01:08:37.460 | How does he is he reading? Is he reading Ilana Vivek's?

01:08:41.420 | He's reading it very slowly

01:08:46.100 | Wow, he's got a 240 pound bench press and an 800 pound leg press

01:08:52.460 | Jesus he looks like he's dead though. That's the only problem

01:08:57.260 | So pal sax has got to go DJT online - we'll see you all next time

01:09:02.620 | Oh

01:09:04.620 | Bye-bye

01:09:07.620 | We'll let your winners ride rain, man, David

01:09:12.020 | We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy

01:09:19.580 | Nice Queen

01:09:21.580 | Besties are

01:09:30.100 | We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just like this like sexual tension

01:09:44.080 | But they just need to release

01:09:48.180 | What

01:09:50.180 | You

01:09:52.180 | Merch

01:09:54.180 | Oh

01:09:56.180 | You

01:09:58.180 | You

01:10:01.020 | I'm going

01:10:03.020 | (upbeat music)

DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory

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