E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more

00:00:00.400 | is is jay cal here i can't see him

00:00:02.560 | maybe i've been blocked i don't know i'm getting static on the line i can't hear anything

00:00:09.440 | i can't hear anything why do the two fat guys have to ruin everything i mean get your

00:00:13.520 | together youtube i'm not we have something good don't save it for the show the show started

00:00:17.920 | freeburg you're lost in full already here we go here we go you guys ready i'm not bad anymore

00:00:26.480 | let your winners ride brain man david sacks

00:00:30.480 | and it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy

00:00:36.800 | if you'd like to skip the bestie twitter drama and get right into the episode jump to 20 minutes and

00:00:48.160 | 48 seconds hey everybody hey everybody we've got a great show for you today what a treat this is

00:00:54.800 | going to be here at the all in podcast we're going to be here at the all in podcast we're going to be

00:00:56.460 | here at the all in podcast we cover everything technology business market politics science and

00:01:00.480 | of course the besties emotions and their feelings i'm dave friedberg the king of cannolis joining me

00:01:07.320 | today are the guys that used to be besties first joining us from burlusconi's boomba boomba palace

00:01:13.840 | the pied piper of spax himself chamath polyhapabuyu welcome you look great today thank you and uh from

00:01:23.440 | one of his many houses the uh

00:01:26.440 | sass bully himself david sacks and of course our former moderator and host the one and only

00:01:36.740 | the internet famous the bronx bully jason calacanis everybody jcal welcome you're looking great you

00:01:46.420 | look like you're ready to do a little uh jab and a hook so for those of you joining us today that

00:01:50.780 | haven't been following on twitter i'm sorry chamath did did you get kermit the frog to host the show i mean

00:01:56.420 | jesus christ that opening was the worst most painful thing i've ever heard it really was not

00:02:00.900 | very good okay well welcome sacks and jcal not really feeling great about this you can't it's

00:02:08.100 | a failed experiment already i thought the opening was good good job free bird i think you're doing

00:02:12.580 | well it's a four of ten stop prejudging his performance it just began and by the way

00:02:18.820 | interrupting already stop interrupting stop interrupting calcanis so the moderator is

00:02:23.300 | moderating and jcal has to take the money

00:02:25.300 | i love her

00:02:26.100 | i'm gonna mute him thank you so gentlemen welcome as we know over the past week there has been a

00:02:34.500 | twitter feud between jason and um david sacks and i'm going to give you guys a little bit of this

00:02:40.820 | background for those of you who haven't followed online which i'm assuming is the vast majority of

00:02:44.660 | you but there's a twitter account called all in stats and they publish an analysis showing

00:02:50.340 | that jcal has been talking a lot on our podcast and sacks uh for the last couple of weeks has been

00:02:55.780 | kind of you know kind of quote tweeted and said you know here is statistical proof of jason's piss

00:03:01.140 | poor moderation of the all-in pod jcal if you were moderating correctly you would be fourth place in

00:03:06.100 | air time entire airtime instead of tied for first your job is to facilitate discussion not dominate

00:03:11.300 | it stop interrupting and let the grown-ups talk jcal immediately jumps up with a response maybe

00:03:17.540 | you could start your own pod with peter thiel and keith or boys and have tucker carlson moderate

00:03:22.180 | sack says i know it's rough doing 10 years of this week and

00:03:25.460 | startups and never getting to number one then shemagh friedberg and i do it effectively on

00:03:29.540 | the first date on the first take but this is why you need to stick to your lane and stop

00:03:35.220 | talking over us oh my god so brutal sax jcal then responds with a niche podcast about just

00:03:42.420 | startups it's never going to be number one it's not for a general audience like all in by design

00:03:47.540 | number two sure trash the guy who has relentlessly supported you for decades

00:03:51.380 | because you're obsessed with your stats and forget about the quality of the conversation

00:03:55.700 | then jcal blocks david sachs on twitter publicly sax tells everyone jcal blocked him

00:04:01.460 | and this whole thing escalates and snowballs so the besties have they broken up are they

00:04:08.500 | going to get back together is this podcast going to continue my mom sent me a text this morning

00:04:13.220 | has the pod disintegrated jason pulled out question mark question mark question mark

00:04:18.180 | the drama ensues so gentlemen um i leave it to you sax with your opening remarks and then jcal you're going to be the besties

00:04:23.140 | may respond i'm here to moderate this opening of today's all in pod so we can kind of get past this

00:04:27.300 | and hopefully get the besties back together and continue our conversations that i think many

00:04:30.260 | people find valuable and are super helpful and useful for us and for our listeners sax please

00:04:36.020 | well i mean i i can see on jason's face that he's he's hurt that by my my tweets um you know i uh

00:04:44.260 | maybe he should go first and explain what's so hurtful i mean look the reality is about this show

00:04:49.700 | that you know breaking balls is part of it we've been doing it for you know a year and a half and

00:04:55.780 | nobody does it more than jason and then all of a sudden you know he's on the receiving end of a

00:05:01.620 | couple of mean tweets and he's like the schoolyard bully who finally gets popped in the nose and goes

00:05:06.660 | running to the teacher and he can't stop bawling so you know where is it that somehow the word

00:05:13.860 | piss poor crosses the line and he's like oh my god i'm gonna go to school i'm gonna go to school i'm gonna go to school

00:05:18.660 | piss poor crossed a red line for you after all of the you know ball busting you've been doing for

00:05:24.260 | the last year that somehow that's out of bounds and now you're gonna block me and potentially end

00:05:29.860 | the show in our friendship so explain that to me big baby all right number one i want to talk about

00:05:42.820 | the statistics in my role on my perception of you david

00:05:47.220 | is that

00:05:48.580 | you got a taste of fame and celebrity and it's gone to your fucking head and you're out of your

00:05:57.220 | ego is out of control you now have stopped doing your job every day and you are obsessed with your

00:06:04.900 | statistics and how you're perceived on the pod as seen by your obsession and your bromance with

00:06:13.220 | henry or harvey bell caster whatever you're sitting there obsessing

00:06:18.100 | over what percentage each of us talk none of the other besties are reading all in stats

00:06:24.020 | or getting obsessed with henry belcaster and how they're perceived on the pod

00:06:28.340 | you have taken a championship show which i pulled together with my decades of experience and team

00:06:37.940 | as the point god i am the chris paul of moderating the reason this show is number one

00:06:45.620 | is because i created a super team there are four people on this podcast who bring a lot to the table

00:06:51.620 | and you have asked for decades for air cow i will not pull out a list but the time that you were

00:06:59.460 | going to get canceled because of beep and the other time that your company was in the beep because

00:07:06.580 | the beep was investigating it you called air cow you called an air cow you can't deny it and nobody

00:07:16.180 | has benefited more from my skills in media than you are you are you speaking in an accent i'm not

00:07:24.420 | speaking in an accent i'm getting uh this is when i get upset what he's getting for clem he's

00:07:28.980 | getting for clients he's controlling it okay i'm not speaking in an accent i'm getting uh this is

00:07:32.100 | when i get upset what he's getting for clem he's getting for clients he's controlling it okay i'm

00:07:34.660 | not speaking in an accent i'm getting uh this is when i get upset what he's getting for clem he's

00:07:34.660 | getting for clients he's controlling it okay i'm bringing the ball up court and i pass the

00:07:40.020 | ball to everybody i am white chocolate on this team i am the professor i am chris paul okay and

00:07:47.060 | i pass the ball now if you want to be a point guard like me and throw crisp passes that make

00:07:53.380 | the audience laugh and make them cheer and bring down the whole goddamn stadium well sometimes i'm

00:07:59.940 | going to do a no-look pass it's going to hit you in the back of the head or it's going to bounce

00:08:03.380 | off you can't

00:08:04.580 | and cry about it constantly david and if you're looking at the minutes

00:08:08.340 | i have to read the story and prep the story so i can put it in your lap

00:08:14.740 | which i love to do i love my role here and you're taking my min account which is at least two-thirds

00:08:22.580 | moderation and you're saying that's indicative of me being piss poor now if it's all a goddamn

00:08:28.020 | joke that's fine but you're messing with my business my business is podcasting and performing

00:08:34.500 | if you got a problem with me as the moderator you have my fucking phone number you can call me

00:08:40.260 | but don't go out and start some fight with me and then go start hanging out with henry belcaster

00:08:46.260 | when i'm your boy okay and then everything with you is about your call-in clubhouse killer and

00:08:53.620 | we've got to move the pawn to that you're getting out of control david you need to realize we

00:08:59.460 | started a podcast that went to number one instantly and be grateful about that and

00:09:04.420 | stay the course the end i'm done well all right good all right so can i respond so first of all

00:09:10.740 | j cal i agree you put the the super team together for this pod you're an indispensable part of it

00:09:17.940 | i'm not questioning that you know i don't think we should i don't think well let me come to that

00:09:23.060 | the adults talk let me first uh let me i'm actually saying some positive things about you

00:09:27.460 | before i get into my uh critique okay so look you deserve credit for putting this thing together

00:09:33.860 | along with the podcast and the podcast is a great podcast and i'm going to put it in the description

00:09:34.340 | so you can read the podcast and the podcast is a great podcast and i'm going to put it in the description

00:09:34.420 | with with chamath uh it wouldn't be the same without you you do bring an element of

00:09:39.700 | entertainment to it uh lord knows if it was just freberg moderating all the time it'd probably be

00:09:44.500 | extremely boring so um look i although we're gonna give him a chance today so who knows

00:09:50.660 | um but rough start and it's not that i was angry or upset or concerned about my air time or any of

00:09:55.940 | that stuff i was frustrated okay because your moderation i have a couple of um concerns about or

00:10:04.260 | i guess complaints okay one is that you do tend to interrupt and i'd say you interrupt me

00:10:09.700 | more than the others okay and specifically not true let's talk about the the issue the the issue

00:10:17.620 | where this came up was the eric adams issue last pod okay so you didn't even go to me this this

00:10:23.460 | issue the eric adams issue is all about the crime issue what the audience doesn't know is that you

00:10:28.660 | went to chamath like three times then you moved on and we had to come back i said no listen i raised

00:10:33.140 | my hand to get back to the point where i was like i'm gonna go back to the point where i was like i'm

00:10:34.180 | gonna go back into the conversation we edited that part out you skipped over me completely i don't

00:10:38.420 | know how that was good passing where was the dish okay to me on that issue okay let me explain to

00:10:44.260 | you can i respond to that sure you've got three people on the team who can score i come down the

00:10:51.140 | court i pass it sometimes there's two open guys you're the guy who was open who didn't get the

00:10:57.940 | pass and now you're walking down the court complaining no instead of keeping your head in

00:11:04.100 | be like not going to freeburg on a science issue all right okay i understand any chance for you

00:11:10.160 | to defend the cops beating up criminals i understand that's your wheelhouse next time

00:11:15.420 | when it comes to that i'll make sure it would be it would be a conspiracy i agree with you i agree

00:11:20.240 | with you it's an oversight i can't hit every perfect pass you're expecting perfection so then

00:11:25.620 | it's a miss pass and now you're upset about it okay okay so then so then i basically say listen

00:11:30.840 | i want to talk to this issue i have three points to make i'm not through point number two before

00:11:35.440 | you're interrupting me and taking the ball away the specific reason why i said i have three points

00:11:40.820 | is to telegraph to you don't interrupt me bitch i got three points to make okay what do you do you

00:11:46.200 | cut me off in the middle of point two how is that good moderation i don't think you do that to

00:11:50.480 | chamath or even freeburg this really is about this really is about chamath versus you and my

00:11:56.480 | relationship with each i love you both no no and the reason why i brought up

00:12:00.820 | the all-in stats okay is not because i'm concerned about my air time but but to show

00:12:04.820 | i'm a little concerned no because i i they broke down that i was like fourth in air time and so the

00:12:10.100 | only point about that is why are you giving me the hook when i'm not talking too much if i were

00:12:15.300 | talking too much if i were monologuing it'd be a whole different story but you're yanking the mic

00:12:20.020 | away from me in the mid-sentence before i even had a chance to finish and there's and there's one more

00:12:24.500 | thing okay which is as soon as i bring up any concern with a moderation where do you go you start calling me

00:12:30.800 | tucker you know you start labeling me in this way okay you had dinner with tucker in the last year

00:12:35.760 | just like just like a year have you had dinner with tucker you're proving you're proving my point

00:12:39.760 | where do you go where do you joke yes but why i'm trying to keep the show entertaining and keep it

00:12:44.960 | moving part of keeping the show entertaining moving is keeping you guys from monologuing

00:12:49.680 | i have to cut you off and make jokes a year and a half ago at the beginning of the pod we had to

00:12:54.800 | have the last time we had a sort of session like this it was because you kept trying to paint me as

00:13:00.780 | a trump supporter which is not my agenda okay now you're doing it for trump now you're trying to hang

00:13:06.040 | did you vote for tucker label on me why aren't you saying hey let's hear from george will let's hear

00:13:10.320 | from william buckley the reason why you're choosing those labels is because you know they are anathema

00:13:17.080 | to most people in silicon valley and you're trying to stigmatize me with them no that is

00:13:21.440 | you're trying to are you reading from your notes are you reading from you you're trying to hang

00:13:24.800 | that albatross points over my neck okay and that is you're trying to anathematize me in

00:13:30.760 | in the in the view of most people in silicon valley you're causing that's not what i'm trying

00:13:34.420 | to do you're trying to make a joke but you are causing the audience to prejudge my message my

00:13:39.820 | points before i've even had the chance to say that's what i'm trying to do by by attacking

00:13:44.020 | the boogie men of the left to me okay the result of that is the audience is going to pre-judge what

00:13:49.020 | i have to say and probably a third of the audience will never want to hear what i have to say because

00:13:53.220 | you've pre-labeled and prejudged me that is a serious problem and that is with my business

00:13:58.460 | that is with my business is it really a lot more

00:14:00.740 | a lot more than me calling out your moderation on one show oh so now it is moderation oh okay

00:14:07.620 | i thought it was great moderation now we're back to it being moderation let me ask you

00:14:11.380 | you know what you're doing did you know what you're doing did you have to talk about you

00:14:15.380 | know what you're doing how have you had dinner with tucker answer the question all right i'm

00:14:19.220 | gonna mute both of you now okay i'm in the moderator chamath do you want to weigh in

00:14:22.900 | on these two idiots and talk a little bit about how we can move the show forward and at this point

00:14:26.420 | i'm thinking about vetoing the publication of the show so we can just have this conversation

00:14:30.720 | this was this was so stupid nick edit all this nonsense out and make it 30 seconds and move on

00:14:39.760 | hey guys this is a really important powerful thing that we accidentally stumbled into

00:14:46.000 | i'll make two points david does get labeled and i don't think it's fair and jason does an excellent

00:14:53.280 | job of moderating and sometimes i think that jason does get excited and in getting excited you know

00:14:59.680 | he's also not just moderating but moderating and moderating and moderating and moderating and

00:15:00.700 | moderating and moderating and moderating and moderating and moderating and moderating and

00:15:00.720 | just there to moderate he's there to contribute as well and so i think that if you look at the the

00:15:06.560 | number of minutes as a guide it's not going to be accurate because he does have two jobs to do

00:15:11.160 | whereas the rest of us only have one and david does bring an enormous amount of clarity to what he says

00:15:18.040 | in a very fair way and it is unfair to him that he gets basically slathered with here's the crazy guy

00:15:24.800 | on the right so i think what i would just say is just let's just tone it the down and conch

00:15:30.680 | down okay we're at a million people a week we could be at 10 million people a week

00:15:36.100 | and we could own the distribution of our ideas to millions and millions of people

00:15:41.260 | let's just stay the course and calm the down well i i agree with all that actually i i agree

00:15:47.300 | with you i'm 100 in agreement i want to address the labeling issue i want to address the label

00:15:51.540 | issue i am joking nine out of ten times when i talk about trump because it's hilarious and

00:15:56.940 | your relationship with tucker i think it's hilarious that you're part of the

00:16:00.660 | keith raboy and teal thing and and i don't think it's damaging for your business at all and i think

00:16:05.780 | people are telling me i'm purple viewed we're moving to the center here so i believe that we're

00:16:10.260 | doing something noble by bringing all these voices together it's all a big joke and you know what i

00:16:15.220 | don't care what you say about me on twitter i know i'm good at what i do there's nothing you could

00:16:20.100 | say that can change that why is your accent change i i think in general you are good at what you do

00:16:26.580 | and i and i and the reason why i have two of the top ten tech podcasts

00:16:30.640 | is go put your podcast player don't tell me to get my shoes anymore foreign number four

00:16:37.460 | and number eight nobody's saying that so i think i think what what david literally what

00:16:41.800 | he said that's literally what he's doing right now is showing why i had to tweet which is

00:16:46.120 | you won't take a note i can't tell the guy hey listen you gotta know for me it's not

00:16:51.720 | gonna happen on twitter you got my phone number well it doesn't happen in private

00:16:55.240 | either we know that you could call me oh really you're gonna take a note in private

00:17:00.360 | i've tried we've had this conversation before we had this specific conversation about the

00:17:05.740 | trump thing a year ago we haven't talked about trump in six months you're back to all your

00:17:10.320 | bad habits can we just hear an apology from one to the other and tell the other yeah i'm

00:17:16.200 | absolutely willing to hear sax's apology tell him what you appreciate about him and what

00:17:20.080 | you like about him go ahead yeah go crisis is therapy all right i unblocked

00:17:24.760 | sax and i'm following him enough thank you move on we move forward apologize to each

00:17:29.080 | other

00:17:30.080 | i'm sorry you tweeted that sax i'm sorry come on seriously david apologized to him

00:17:34.840 | let's just move on jason tell sax you're sorry for labeling him and you know you'll be more

00:17:39.560 | conscientious in the future please i'm sorry that i brought up your relationship with tucker

00:17:46.200 | and that i labeled you a trump disciple i don't even need an apology i just want him

00:17:53.300 | to recognize me too so i'm trying to be the bigger man it i take it back okay i unblocked

00:17:59.800 | you and you're followed i unblocked you and you're followed that's enough sax jason his

00:18:03.180 | feelings were hurt by you telling him that his podcast sucks and yeah piss poor piss

00:18:07.960 | poor okay look you asked me to have 10 of your founders on the podcast in the last two

00:18:12.540 | years i counted your team is in the mix trying to get people booked on the show we're not

00:18:18.040 | gonna we're not gonna keep it going you've benefited from this relationship as well so

00:18:22.060 | thank you for that i never said i didn't thank you for the person is thank you to you all

00:18:26.560 | right we good look my frustration with the podcast is that i'm not gonna keep it going

00:18:27.800 | look my frustration over your moderation boiled off into a couple of tweets last week i did not

00:18:35.020 | mean to hurt your feelings i was just trying to give you a note okay if you would take the notes

00:18:39.740 | in private i would give you them to you in private i do think that overall you're a great moderator

00:18:45.340 | your contribution to the show is absolutely necessary and essential never disputed that

00:18:52.060 | i think we should keep doing the show um i didn't expect you to block me honestly i didn't expect

00:18:57.260 | your feelings to be hurt by me i didn't expect you to block me i didn't expect you to block me

00:18:57.780 | to be so hurt by what I said

00:18:59.580 | and so yeah

00:19:01.960 | look I apologize for that all I wanted

00:19:03.940 | to do is give you a note and I would

00:19:05.840 | appreciate if you could try and respect

00:19:07.980 | my note not mischaracterize it

00:19:09.940 | I think you know what I'm saying right

00:19:11.840 | I just want the chance to be able to

00:19:13.960 | present my views without the audience

00:19:15.900 | prejudging them because you know

00:19:17.620 | that certain labels will not

00:19:20.000 | go over well with our audience okay

00:19:21.960 | it'd be like introducing Chamath

00:19:23.780 | as the Michael Milken of SPACs

00:19:26.060 | okay there is

00:19:27.580 | I edited that out

00:19:28.700 | I'm not saying he is

00:19:31.460 | no

00:19:32.700 | I'm saying it would be as if you

00:19:35.920 | did that right you understand what you'd

00:19:37.940 | be doing if you labeled him that way

00:19:40.060 | I don't think that is a fair label

00:19:42.000 | in fairness I thought the labeling

00:19:43.900 | and the joking about you being the token

00:19:45.720 | Republican was a meta joke about

00:19:47.980 | the fact that Silicon Valley doesn't have too many

00:19:49.960 | of you and Teals and Reboys

00:19:51.980 | etc there's a small cohort

00:19:53.340 | I think the whole point of what we were trying to say is Silicon Valley's

00:19:55.620 | heads up their ass I agree

00:19:57.380 | so maybe so maybe the problem maybe the problem we've we've identified is

00:20:01.740 | all these left-leaning people are just sniffing their own balls basically

00:20:05.500 | running to a cliff

00:20:06.980 | sweating balls

00:20:08.100 | yeah a lot of my views like on free speech are the old

00:20:11.140 | center left

00:20:12.460 | exactly and now you're for universal health care look at you

00:20:15.500 | I haven't moved the whole world's gone crazy I mean

00:20:18.660 | everyone supported free speech until five minutes ago okay that's what I went on Tucker

00:20:22.420 | to discuss

00:20:23.420 | you were free market about uh education and you were free market about about the whole world

00:20:27.180 | about health care and now you're like I mean we should have health care and safety nets

00:20:29.940 | I I am I am a believer in in markets all right Jason let's start go let's start the show

00:20:34.500 | three two hey everybody hey everybody the all-in podcast is back besties unblocked with

00:20:40.300 | us again the rain man himself David Sachs and David Freeburg the queen of kinwa and

00:20:50.060 | from his Italian hideaway gallivanting in Italy Chamath Polyharmonic University and

00:20:56.980 | the dictator big news for besties this week Robinhood um has filed their s1 and paid a

00:21:05.760 | fin refine 70 million dollars for outages and misleading customers multiple days of

00:21:11.020 | outages back in March 2020 we talked about here and poor communications around options

00:21:16.720 | trading risks Robinhood's s1 highlighted some extraordinary uh growth during that period

00:21:24.200 | as we discussed on the pod

00:21:26.780 | 18 million funded accounts and they're on a two billion dollar run rate 522 million dollars in

00:21:33.980 | revenue in the first quarter up 4x and uh monthly active users have more than doubled 8.6 million

00:21:41.060 | accounts to 17.7 million uh just for in the last year revenue was up 300 percent any thoughts on

00:21:48.860 | Robinhood's s1 obviously I'm an interested party it's the largest fine ever I think of this type

00:21:55.400 | but on the dinner's largest fine I think of this type but on the other hand it's the largest fine

00:21:56.580 | yeah yeah so it should be a black eye for the company but the reality is that they're happy to

00:22:01.440 | pay the fine and just move on so they don't have this issue hanging over their heads anymore and

00:22:05.040 | now they're going to be able to IPO at like a 50 60 70 billion dollar valuation and so for them

00:22:10.980 | it's just sort of cost of doing business I think there's something a little bit off about that but

00:22:15.420 | um that's kind of how it works freeburg anything I mean congrats to you J Cal looks like you're

00:22:20.760 | gonna do really well with this deal huh it will return roughly this one deal will

00:22:26.380 | do three or four times the value of the first fund the launch fund one which was 11 million

00:22:32.560 | dollars did you invest in the seed round or the a or what round did you invest in I think it was

00:22:36.640 | the seed round um and so what's your multiple going to be on a 50 billion dollar market cap

00:22:42.460 | you know uh it would be 500x amazing amazing congrats big boy yeah it's a congrats Jake Allen

00:22:52.480 | I'm happy to see that you're successful I'm really happy for you your success is finally catching up

00:22:56.180 | to your ego and so I think here we go I think that's it too soon too soon too soon your net

00:23:04.880 | worth is catching up to your waist size congrats oh God uh well actually between this and the

00:23:11.900 | composition uh I'm uh you know listen it's a long way to go before we distribute obviously

00:23:17.360 | but that first fund I did which came after the Scouts fund my Sequoia Scouts portfolio

00:23:21.740 | my only advice to you Jason is talk talk to a few seasoned GPs like girly Fred

00:23:25.980 | Wilson and figure out the right distribution strategy one of the biggest things that I see

00:23:29.580 | these folks do is early stage Venture investors thinking that they're public market investors

00:23:34.560 | trying to time the market trying to figure out how to do distributions and it never works

00:23:38.820 | which means do you hold the shares for another year or two I would distribute them I would

00:23:45.120 | distribute them immediately book the win move on yeah you know it's interesting a lot of the

00:23:49.620 | top firms that I'm in are holding their shares and I I had a firm that had uh Square and they

00:23:55.780 | held some number of them until it's 7x and then distributed so I guess technically they get to

00:24:00.820 | book that win what are your thoughts on that sax of when to distribute and how are you doing in your

00:24:06.280 | fund yeah I mean it's a good question um the reality is that you know let's say that you're

00:24:12.460 | in year four or five of a 10-year fund you could hold the shares for another five years and if the

00:24:18.400 | shares go up over that five-year period you'll you'll do better so I think the question on IR your

00:24:25.060 | numbers will look better well I mean you're you're compensated on the absolute amount of return that

00:24:30.220 | you generate and so it might be if you distribute the shares and then if you're in carry and you

00:24:34.960 | just hold the shares you'll realize the same gains you know you're not well it depends what happens

00:24:38.800 | to the stock price I guess I guess what I would say is hold on a second if the stock were to go

00:24:42.220 | 10x and you get 20 of those shares if there were 100 shares you had 20 if a 10x you're

00:24:46.720 | still getting 20 percent right Shama so it nets out to the same if you hold the shares

00:24:50.560 | yourself personally this is why I think that if you're in the business of running uh a multi-faceted

00:24:54.860 | defund business I think you're better off generally and I think again if you talk to the

00:25:00.380 | best firms out there they typically will not try to guess what's going to happen in the public

00:25:05.960 | markets they distribute and they move on to their next fund um and then because you have to remember

00:25:10.700 | the IRRs you know you go through these rough patches it decays quickly and all of a sudden

00:25:15.800 | something that looks great can start to look not so great and the example of that might be snowflake

00:25:20.300 | or something going down after it went public and if you had distributed it you would have booked the

00:25:24.660 | fund at that high multiple yeah and then then you're thinking to yourself wow I hope it goes

00:25:29.220 | back up and then you're like well when do I distribute it's all if these are all not things

00:25:32.880 | that Venture Capitalists should be engaged in they should be there to help build the next the

00:25:36.600 | next David versus Goliath I think the the counter argument to that is if you really believe in the

00:25:41.100 | company and think you understand it better than the public markets do or or because you've been

00:25:45.420 | on the board and you have information you know if you hold it for another yes there's going to be

00:25:50.340 | ups and downs but let's say that you plan to hold it for another four or five years um yeah

00:25:54.460 | you'll still get the same 20 25 carry but um the point at which that carry will crystallize would

00:26:00.040 | be at like a much higher level and so essentially you're preventing your LPs from selling is what

00:26:05.140 | you're doing and so you may get an extra turn of your fund by doing that how do we feel as

00:26:10.360 | LPs David freeberg but there's sorry there's also isn't there like a um I'm just trying to pull up

00:26:16.360 | the Goldman Sachs report they did in 2019 where they analyzed 4 500 IPOs over a 25-year period

00:26:24.260 | um and I think that and I could be wrong on this but if I remember some summary of this I'm trying

00:26:29.900 | to find it so I can't find it right now um but that they uh basically highlighted that IPOs as

00:26:35.660 | an index generally outperform the market over some period of time whether it's one year or three

00:26:39.920 | years and so if you have access to those IPO shares assume you're a venture investor you can

00:26:45.500 | beat the S P by 10 15 points just generally without having any thought about the business

00:26:51.320 | itself or the company itself um and you know

00:26:54.060 | you know participate in 20 carry on the upside from there or 25 carrying the upside from there

00:26:58.800 | um and so generally the rule of thumb becomes well you shouldn't distribute right away you

00:27:03.780 | should hold is that not kind of a common dogma amongst GPs nowadays look at Square look at Square

00:27:10.680 | I mean Square had all like most of the appreciation happened in the public markets I think Sequoia held

00:27:16.560 | onto their Square shares did way way better because nobody sold effectively for several years and I mean

00:27:23.860 | they do this right I mean like you you hear from girly and others that you know they hold

00:27:27.460 | onto these shares for years and you know a good business going public uh has a much better chance

00:27:34.360 | of uh performing well as a public company than you know just tracking the S P uh after an IPO

00:27:40.120 | regardless of the valuation it exits at well how do we feel as LPs Chamath your LPs in a lot of

00:27:45.460 | terrible I'm in 15 terrible you you want your shares I I don't know no offense to any GP out

00:27:50.320 | there but I don't think they're as good of a public market investor as I am so give me the shares

00:27:53.660 | I'll manage it myself uh and get out of the way um I I give money to a lot of to your point a lot

00:28:01.460 | of GPs because I want private market exposure I don't want them speculating in the public markets

00:28:07.340 | for me I do that for myself and so I would rather just get the shares and make my own decision

00:28:12.080 | um you know a lot of foundations for example are in the situation where they're there to fund

00:28:17.420 | programs so if they have a you know multi-hundred million dollar position in a great company and they

00:28:23.460 | can't fund a program or the you know a hospital system can't do what they need to do because some

00:28:28.140 | GP is speculating in the public markets I think it's insane so give you give it give give the LPs

00:28:34.860 | the money and move on it's not your job otherwise you should run a generalized fund and most people

00:28:40.860 | don't because they can't generally how do you guys when you are a large owner in a company that goes

00:28:47.040 | public or just say the pool of Venture investors or owners in a company that goes public and the lock

00:28:53.260 | up is expiring you know typically six months after the IPO and you can now distribute your shares to

00:28:57.700 | your LPs do those um you know investors take note of or have concern about the impact it might have

00:29:05.620 | on the stock price when they're making those distribution decisions typically I think they

00:29:09.640 | think about that but a lot of these LPs particularly the non-profits they're forced day one sellers the

00:29:15.520 | minute that they get the stock that just like as soon as the stock gets distributed everyone's

00:29:19.060 | selling and the stock takes a hit right and I think yeah you know what there's something happening

00:29:23.060 | I mean uh this is speculation um that I don't have so just you know take it as that but my

00:29:30.560 | understanding was some investment banks went to the uh and Shamath might know the background on

00:29:36.440 | this went to some of the major LPs in the world I'll leave it at that and said hey you have a

00:29:41.420 | position in I don't know this cab company um it's going public it's fully valued or

00:29:47.360 | it's very well valued would you like to collar your shares uh before that and we

00:29:52.860 | will take them off your hands uh and and lock you into a certain price for some percentage of it

00:29:57.660 | basically end running the GP's decision-making process of course there's a lot about that

00:30:03.960 | happens this is why I'm saying I think the GP is better off if you're in the Venture Fund business

00:30:07.680 | be in the Venture Fund business do a great job at that raise funds distribute cash do what you're

00:30:12.840 | supposed to do but please don't try to do some it's kind of like asking you know the firemen to

00:30:16.920 | also operate on you no I don't want that take me to the hospital and let the doctor do the job I

00:30:22.660 | think from a perspective I think it's probably the baseline that VC should operate from but I

00:30:26.740 | do think there are exceptions where if the VC has been on a company board for a while it feels like

00:30:31.000 | they have they understand the company better than the public markets especially during the first two

00:30:35.140 | years as a public company when the markets can be really choppy and the company's trying to find its

00:30:40.000 | level and people don't really understand it I think there is an argument for the VC having expertise

00:30:46.240 | in in that initial public run then they might be doing their LPs a favor by holding but but look I

00:30:52.460 | think Tremas point is well taken also uh companies are going public earlier so this is going to become

00:30:59.300 | a bigger issue because it's an easy decision in year 11 if you were an Uber investor an Airbnb

00:31:05.180 | investor to say okay it's been 11 years we're going to give you your shares but if you're in

00:31:09.860 | year five and the company goes out so early you know you could make an argument hey maybe we hold

00:31:14.660 | it for two or three years just going back on the previous topic Jcal the um the FINRA news on Robin

00:31:20.120 | right so FINRA just so everyone understands it's not a government regulator it's a private entity

00:31:26.240 | yeah it's called a self-regulatory organization and these SROs are basically they have a board

00:31:31.760 | and a you know a bunch of people that run them but they're pooled and managed by all

00:31:36.080 | the participants the private participants in the markets of Goldman Sachs and Morgan

00:31:39.740 | Stanley JP Morgan and all the banks they are all part of the FINRA SRO and so the way that

00:31:45.380 | these SROs are set up is to avoid government regulation and to avoid government intervention

00:31:49.920 | in markets and allows the markets to effectively self-regulate themselves in a way that everyone in

00:31:55.800 | the market is kind of keeping an eye on each other and making sure that this is being taken care of

00:31:59.760 | and I think one thing to take note of from this fine is that it telegraphs that FINRA and the

00:32:05.880 | markets in general the market participants in general may be rather concerned and rather

00:32:11.340 | worried about government intervention in some of these new markets and emerging fintech practices

00:32:17.100 | because they wanted to say look we put the gauntlet

00:32:19.720 | down on Robin Hood we made them pay the biggest fine ever we made them pay 70 million dollars

00:32:23.920 | stay away we're taking care of it because the concern everyone's had is that AOC and Elizabeth

00:32:29.080 | Warren and a bunch of people on Capitol Hill are waving flags saying we need to step in we need to

00:32:33.520 | regulate these companies we need to regulate these practices we need to protect consumers and so this

00:32:37.900 | fine really signals that the market is a bit concerned that the government is going to come in

00:32:44.140 | and start trying to tell fintech companies how to practice and how to operate and generally tell all

00:32:49.520 | the company you know market participants how to operate which is a very scary prospect for them

00:32:53.960 | so to me this was really this this was really big news about what it telegraphs the backdoor

00:32:58.760 | conversations are you know that are going on with market participants right now what you're almost

00:33:03.500 | saying is that this is a benefit to Robin Hood to pay the largest fine because it it says to the you

00:33:09.740 | know to the politicians look we've already been punished in this you know maximal way you don't

00:33:14.540 | need to layer it on top so in a way it's better for Robin Hood that they paid 70 million instead of

00:33:19.320 | 10 million yeah and it's not it's not by the way it's not even for Robin Hood I think all the market

00:33:24.000 | participants JP Morgan Goldman Sachs they all have huge you know tech teams and they all have acquired

00:33:29.400 | fintech companies and they are all trying to go digital and everyone is worried about the government

00:33:34.200 | intervening and changing how this business is transforming because as soon as the government

00:33:38.580 | gets involved it's going to slow down the transformation it's going to you know make

00:33:41.640 | things much more challenging and I think that everyone's trying to keep the government at

00:33:45.000 | bay while the great digital transformation of markets is underway

00:33:49.120 | um and uh and I think that's like the biggest signal from this this fin refine

00:33:52.960 | and there's there's some interesting nuances there that they brought up something like the confetti so

00:33:59.200 | when you buy something on Robin Hood it used to explode confetti gamification they're like oh we're

00:34:05.380 | going to take that out and you know if you go to Vegas they've got bells and whistles going off

00:34:09.940 | everywhere when you place a bet uh and so it is a little bit of window dressing I think it's also

00:34:14.860 | interesting that you bring up the self-regulatory organizations there's two other equivalents

00:34:18.920 | for people who are thinking about this the MPA motion picture Association uh which was formed

00:34:24.260 | back in 1922 because people had the same fear about movies and Valentini I think was the the

00:34:31.460 | guy who really uh changed uh how movies were perceived in the PG-13 era allowing a lot more

00:34:37.700 | violence Terminator those kind of movies and then you had a similar thing happen in the video game

00:34:43.820 | industry in 90s does Robin Hood still have like the lawsuits with like the the the the the the

00:34:48.720 | like uh Massachusetts uh there's like 10 other lawsuits class actions Etc about um no no no but

00:34:56.400 | these are more like with with government entities right like like didn't Massachusetts try to stay

00:35:00.840 | to state attorney general yeah something like that I think right yeah I don't know um but the

00:35:07.140 | other one that was very interesting was the um esrb which is the entertainment software ratings

00:35:12.900 | board because video games like Mortal Kombat and those and Doom were you know had to self-regulate

00:35:17.940 | right um

00:35:18.520 | um so either you regulate yourself Jason tomato's asking a question about losses at Robin Hood I know

00:35:23.920 | I was trying to deflect them I noticed come on man can we move on to the Delta variant because I'm

00:35:31.480 | supposed to be hysterically afraid of getting covet now because I've been vaccinated people

00:35:36.640 | keep talking about there's this Delta variant it's spreading and then I'm hearing one set of

00:35:41.560 | information which is if you're vaccinated it's not an issue and then uh other folks are going on TV

00:35:48.320 | saying this is going to be like we're going to have to put masks back on in California I can't

00:35:53.780 | find any data about how many actual cases there are but according to the uscdc 46 percent of the

00:36:01.280 | total U.S population has been vaccinated now uh and New York New Jersey California all well above

00:36:06.440 | 50 some people are in the 60 of adults 70 of adults Florida is still trailing but I can't and

00:36:13.100 | people are saying this is going to become the dominant variant freebreak how should we look at

00:36:16.160 | the Delta variant if you're vaccinated

00:36:18.120 | and then how should we look at it in terms of are we going to go through mandatory masks again which

00:36:24.480 | people are starting to signal already in certain uh coastal cities yeah so Trevor Bedford's a great

00:36:31.200 | guy to follow on this uh he's a epidemiologist virologist who um on Twitter on Twitter yeah

00:36:37.920 | uh trvrb is his uh Twitter handle and so he's aggregated a bunch of good data so there was a

00:36:44.460 | paper published two days ago out of the UK where they are trying to

00:36:47.920 | estimate the um uh you know the reproduction rate of the Delta variant and it looks like it's

00:36:54.880 | about 1.3 that means for every person that gets infected with the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2

00:37:00.820 | virus that's the are not you're talking about that's that's yeah some people call are not yeah

00:37:04.840 | and so um it turns out that you know that number is higher than what we saw with the original SARS

00:37:10.180 | CoV-2 which I think was probably closer to 1.1 or so and so um you know what that means is this

00:37:16.060 | Delta variant is much more infectious right it could spread through the air the proteins could

00:37:20.260 | last in oxygen much longer and not degrade all these different reasons why it might be kind of

00:37:25.000 | more infectious um and there are some cases of people that have been vaccinated but this is not

00:37:30.580 | the predominance of what we're seeing that have tested positive for having this Delta variant but

00:37:36.160 | are having mild to moderate symptoms there aren't at this point a lot of people there's not a lot of

00:37:40.840 | data to indicate that this is actually kind of like a lethal risk or fatal risk to people that

00:37:45.040 | have been vaccinated in case of Delta variant and so there's a lot of data to indicate that this is

00:37:45.860 | the case in fact that seems to be not true and one way that that data is kind of demonstrated right

00:37:51.500 | now is there was another analysis that was done where they showed what is the reproduction rate

00:37:56.540 | of this variant based on what percentage of the population has been vaccinated by state and they

00:38:03.140 | show that you know for a state that's had maybe 30 percent of its population vaccinated the are not

00:38:08.300 | is closer to 1.35 when 60 of the state is vaccinated the are not is just at one and so there's this you

00:38:15.660 | know this is a you know negatively correlated kind of relationship between how many people have been

00:38:20.220 | vaccinated and how much this variant is transmitting and that makes intuitive sense

00:38:24.060 | right like if people are vaccinated they're not going to get infected the virus isn't going to hop

00:38:27.960 | from person to person to person now when you do the analysis of what percentage of the U.S population

00:38:33.000 | is unvaccinated and how reproductive this virus is a lot of epidemiologists are saying that the

00:38:40.500 | models indicate that we could see up to 10 percent of the U.S population now get hit with this variant

00:38:45.460 | and what we don't know is what percentage of people actually had you know SARS-CoV-2 in the

00:38:49.960 | first run around last year but we are seeing this this variant pop up now the fatality rate doesn't

00:38:55.420 | appear to be much higher than what we saw with SARS-CoV-2 the first time around and and so there's

00:39:00.760 | no indication to say like hey this is going to be much more lethal so when you combine those

00:39:04.420 | factors it seems like at this point you know the the death rates in the U.S are remaining flat and

00:39:09.880 | stable while we are going to see and may expect to see a continuing upsurge surge up in terms of the

00:39:15.260 | number of cases are we going to require masks this goes back to kind of my previous point about I

00:39:20.120 | think we've kind of normalized ourselves to masks and shutdowns and lockdowns and all the stuff that

00:39:24.440 | we did last year thinking that it had an effect a recent paper showed that lockdowns had no effect

00:39:29.000 | on the reproduction rate in the United States because at the end of the day what if a government

00:39:32.960 | says lockdown or government says put masks on people still have a tendency to do whatever

00:39:36.920 | the hell they want to do and at least in the United States that is the case that is not the

00:39:40.640 | case likely in Asian countries where we did see an effect of lockdowns and masks

00:39:45.060 | um but in the United States these uh these restrictions uh obviously had adverse economic

00:39:49.980 | effects but didn't seem to have a strong epidemiological effect um based on a recent

00:39:55.380 | paper that I will share uh in this thing so so what are we going to do I don't know I feel like

00:39:59.760 | we've normalized mass we've normalized lockdowns we've normalized these responses but SARS-CoV-2 is

00:40:04.080 | going to be here forever and it is going to cycle through variants and that's the concern right in

00:40:08.160 | the world let me make a prediction I think that what at the end of this thing what I think I

00:40:14.860 | have come to the conclusion of is there was a lot of unknowns that got perverted into hysteria and

00:40:25.900 | mania by a handful of organizations to basically uh sequester power and what we realized is that

00:40:34.840 | these people were incompetent and they didn't know what they were doing because you ended

00:40:40.480 | up in the same place with all of these different distributions of actions and

00:40:44.660 | so now I think when you have this other variant I think there's a growing sensation by a lot of

00:40:50.180 | people not just Americans that the CDC the who whoever it is is probably at best guessing and

00:40:59.120 | at worst making it up and the ultimate result is there this it's almost as if they like being

00:41:05.180 | drunk with power and so I think the last part of what you said freeburg is what I

00:41:09.920 | really agree with which is that this is not going to be tolerated anymore and the

00:41:14.460 | reason is because they are also politicizing science and what they're doing is when they

00:41:20.340 | don't know they're making poor guesses in the name of science which is just as bad

00:41:25.500 | so you know I don't know what's going to happen with the Delta variant maybe a lot

00:41:30.300 | maybe a little but as far as I can tell I think people are tired of uninformed

00:41:36.540 | impacts to their lives and they're not going to put up with it anymore Saks chances California goes back

00:41:44.260 | to lockdowns or some sort of mask mandates uh well well they are they're they're imposing mass

00:41:50.260 | mandates indoors in places like LA and you have the teachers unions the the National Education

00:41:56.380 | Union is now putting down all these conditions on going back to school in the fall so I think

00:42:03.940 | you could be in a situation where we do not have they will call it school reopening but we will not

00:42:08.860 | have five day a week in person learning and the schools the public schools that have it are going

00:42:13.480 | to have all sorts of incentives and I think that's going to be a big issue for the rest of the world.

00:42:14.060 | I think that's going to be a big issue for the rest of the world.

00:42:14.120 | of insane restrictions and conditions like making kids who really aren't at risk for

00:42:19.580 | covid even even the Delta variant they're going to force them to wear masks they're going to

00:42:24.320 | um enforce this ridiculous social distancing they're talking about making the kids who

00:42:28.820 | aren't vaccinated sit at a separate table like the outcasts I mean it's insane what

00:42:33.800 | they're talking about doing so why is that insane David not to interrupt you but I'm

00:42:38.180 | just curious how much you unpack that because so so look I I'm I'm pro vaccine you know

00:42:43.860 | I think adults should get vaccinated I don't think my kids need to get vaccinated I don't

00:42:48.780 | think that is a wise policy to to force kids to get vaccinated they're at very low risk for getting

00:42:55.260 | the virus they're very low risk for transmitting the virus if they get it and even if they get it

00:42:59.580 | they're at almost no risk for it being harmful or you know to cause serious illness or death

00:43:06.000 | and so to impose all these restrictions on kids it's like we're living in a time warp

00:43:10.560 | you know back to last summer when we didn't know as much about the virus

00:43:13.660 | I mean to chamas point they're imposing all these restrictions which are just unscientific

00:43:19.180 | and it really seems like the real point is to create excuses for the teachers not to have to

00:43:25.180 | go back to work and you know you know a school system is borked when the truancy is on the part

00:43:31.660 | of the teachers not the students the students want to go back the teachers want to be truant

00:43:36.640 | it's like they want to be on permanent vacation forever it is a really broken system by the way let

00:43:43.460 | me just highlight um you know to support uh the concern that I think people like like people that

00:43:51.080 | sax is kind of speaking to might be having um a research letter was published in the Journal

00:43:56.420 | um of the American medalist Medical Association two days ago a lead researcher was a guy named

00:44:02.180 | Harold Walsh and this paper is going viral amongst kind of the um you know the the scientific and

00:44:08.720 | medical Community right now and what these guys did is they measured the carbon dioxide content

00:44:13.260 | of children's lungs um from wearing masks and so they were trying to identify like is this a risk to

00:44:21.060 | children to actually be wearing masks health-wise and the results are pretty scary it turns out that

00:44:27.600 | you know um in in in air in in ambient air 0.07 percent by volume is carbon dioxide when a normal

00:44:35.340 | and then they measured kids you know randomized control double blind you know here's we're not

00:44:40.260 | double blind but randomized control there's kids that have masks and kids that don't

00:44:43.060 | have the kids that don't have masks their carbon dioxide when they exhale is about 0.28 percent

00:44:49.600 | when you have to wear a surgical mask your carbon dioxide increases to 1.3 percent

00:44:55.840 | um and uh you know when they looked at this in a more detailed way it turns out that it could

00:45:01.060 | be as high as 3.8 percent and so this starts to reach a medical level that is concerning for

00:45:06.340 | doctors that having these kids wear masks for hours a day could actually be having an adverse

00:45:12.860 | health effect because it is increasing the carbon dioxide content of their blood because you know

00:45:17.360 | their lungs aren't strong enough to breathe all this carbon dioxide out it builds up in their body

00:45:20.720 | and so there is a now a counterpoint that is being made by scientists and doctors that maybe

00:45:26.660 | the benefit of the safety we might get from kids wearing masks and spreading the virus is um outweighed

00:45:32.660 | uh by the uh um the cost of their health as a result of wearing these masks and to ask kids

00:45:37.940 | to wear masks for eight hours a day or five hours a day for nine months a year

00:45:42.660 | um we're just now waking up to the fact that there may actually be consequences to this and I'm not

00:45:46.620 | making a strong it's like it's like it's like child abuse so we sent our five-year-old to a

00:45:51.120 | summer camp in LA okay and the camp is outside and all the the adults are vaccinated okay but

00:45:57.180 | they're making the kids wear masks and it's no fun you know and they can't play sports the way

00:46:03.300 | they need to and we just said the hell with this and we took them out now what I don't

00:46:07.140 | understand is why people aren't laying this at the feet of Gavin Newsom this is a hundred percent

00:46:12.460 | his order you know all he has to do is say listen we don't need these rules anymore it's kids it's

00:46:18.640 | outside and all the adults are vaccinated what is the point of this and you know and I think we

00:46:24.340 | have this recall election now that's been scheduled for mid-September you know right

00:46:28.960 | now it looks like Newsom's going to cruise to to to winning but if we had a candidate in California

00:46:34.780 | who could say listen we need five day a week in you know in person schooling in the fall no exception

00:46:42.260 | all the teachers need to go back to work or they're going to need to be looking for new jobs

00:46:46.400 | we're not going to kowtow and give in to all these unnecessary unscientific restrictions okay because

00:46:52.400 | Newsom will not make that guarantee I think they could they could basically steal this thing we

00:46:57.680 | don't have anyone standing up saying that and I think the closer we get to the start of school

00:47:02.120 | if we don't have that kind of five day a week instruction I think parents are going to be up

00:47:06.800 | in arms about this I think they will be and I think what we're going to prove is none of these folks

00:47:12.060 | really know what they're talking about and so they will make it up and someone will have some

00:47:18.000 | shred of evidence about something on either side of any topic and all it'll do is obfuscate and

00:47:24.780 | confuse and the end of it will be somebody imposing something onto you that will have a

00:47:32.220 | negative impact on your life but for their benefit in the teachers for their benefit like I don't

00:47:37.440 | want to go back there's I mean listen I want to say all teachers don't want to go back to school

00:47:40.560 | I know a lot of teachers

00:47:41.860 | want to go back to school and teach kids and take the masks off because it's insufferable no

00:47:46.000 | you I think you can say the union and separated from teachers exactly yeah I don't think it's all

00:47:51.580 | teachers it's some percentage of teachers but I think we're going to move David freeberg correct

00:47:56.200 | me if I'm wrong here we're going to move to a two-class system here if you're vaccinated you

00:47:59.860 | get one set of rules and if you're not vaccinated you get another and this is where David I think

00:48:04.300 | kids who are over the age of 11 or 12 who do get vaccinated they shouldn't have to wear a

00:48:09.400 | mask at school but then well sorry can I just say something

00:48:11.660 | this is what the insanity of this thing is it's like okay we're going to throw around again we're

00:48:15.860 | probably going to use the word equity uh when we make these new rules but then fine why don't you

00:48:21.560 | just create a school that has everybody in it who is vaccinated well I don't I don't even understand

00:48:29.720 | I don't understand this because all of us are vaccinated so our we don't need to worry about

00:48:33.800 | it so in other words we're going to impose restrictions on people and force kids or

00:48:38.720 | whoever to get vaccinated to protect whom

00:48:41.460 | if all the adults are vaccinated we're not protecting anybody all we're doing is protecting

00:48:45.300 | I guess unvaccinated adults that makes no sense to me well they're taking the risk right I mean

00:48:50.520 | if you're choosing to not get the vaccine at this point freeberg you're taking some significant level

00:48:57.360 | of risk or some moderate level does the government have a responsibility to protect that person I

00:49:02.520 | don't think it matters what I think matters is remember like the societal responsibility

00:49:07.500 | is not and cannot be to protect every individual

00:49:11.260 | the societal responsibility is to make sure that society functions and um and if we take a zoom back

00:49:18.220 | and I just want everyone to reset your brains go back to March of last year and we were talking

00:49:23.800 | about the surge of deaths in hospitals and hospitals were going to be overwhelmed and that

00:49:28.060 | was the reason we needed to go into lockdowns and the reason we needed to stop the surge

00:49:31.720 | even if this Delta variant is highly infectious there are enough people

00:49:37.000 | and people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is

00:49:41.060 | not going to crush our hospital system it's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities which

00:49:45.740 | is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place all of the concerns that we had last year

00:49:50.300 | that rationalized a lot of the extreme behavior that we undertook no longer exists and we are now

00:49:56.060 | talking about continuing those those behaviors under a different set of standards and the set

00:50:01.580 | of standards is now I can't put a teacher at risk I can't put an individual at risk

00:50:05.420 | and even if that individual got infected if the fatality rate is so low I can still say well they

00:50:10.860 | should die therefore I can't have them exposed right and that has become the new standards what

00:50:15.540 | I think Saxon that that article kind of talked about a zeroism you know you get to a point if

00:50:20.280 | you're if you're fighting a war on a battlefield and you're like well I can't let any of my soldiers

00:50:25.320 | die we can't move down the field you're not going to move down the field you're not going to win the

00:50:29.940 | war and I'm not saying that this is a war the point is society has to progress the economy has

00:50:34.680 | to progress people's lives have to progress people have to be educated life is about progress and if

00:50:40.660 | we progress because of the concern that any individual might get harmed because of the

00:50:44.680 | progress of the group as a whole we will not go anywhere and we've created a new set of standards

00:50:49.180 | that I think creates that very reality and it is frightening let me let me let me put a finer point

00:50:55.120 | on this which is just this coat this Delta variant is just more covid fear porn okay

00:51:01.240 | this is the third variant of concern where they've been you know running around alarm

00:51:06.400 | saying that you know we have to worry the truth is is it more transmissible yes

00:51:10.460 | it is going to I think sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated but the

00:51:16.940 | question is how does it perform against the vaccines and so far the vaccines are holding up

00:51:22.400 | the the variants none of the variants have really punched through the vaccines in a meaningful way

00:51:27.500 | I think the stats on Pfizer were it's it was it maybe reduced the effectiveness from 95 to 88 or

00:51:34.700 | something like that but it wasn't a material difference if you are double Vax with Pfizer

00:51:38.660 | you are protected against the Delta

00:51:40.260 | variant and so this is just more fear porn that they keep pumping I'm agree I'm in agreement with

00:51:45.420 | you and I think this reminds me of when we were growing up in the 80s they tried to scare us about

00:51:51.960 | sex and HIV and were you not going to have sex if you were in your 20s in the 90s and into the 80s

00:52:00.720 | no you learned about HIV you learned to use condoms you learned that you you probably couldn't do uh

00:52:07.080 | you know what people did in the 60s and 70s which had many many partners

00:52:10.060 | you maybe had to have fewer partners maybe longer term partners but you could you could take your

00:52:14.860 | own risk by putting on a condom you could make that decision for yourself here I think there's

00:52:19.180 | a group of people who don't want anybody to make any decisions for themselves and in this case the

00:52:23.860 | vaccine is wearing a condom if you're wearing a condom like your chance of getting HIV go down

00:52:28.780 | dramatically is just a known fact and we're at 263 people on average dying a day how many of

00:52:36.400 | those Friedberg do you think are with covid versus

00:52:39.860 | from covid if you had to take a guess I have I have always I I hate doing this because then

00:52:45.140 | people think it's like an inhuman analysis but the way that um actuaries or economists would

00:52:49.340 | kind of take a look at this sort of decision tree and this sort of data is the number of

00:52:54.680 | life years lost okay um so imagine someone is going to die tomorrow if someone's going

00:53:00.260 | to die tomorrow and they catch covid today and they die a day early you have lost a life day

00:53:05.600 | and everyone yes that is absolutely devastating and it is awful emotionally but

00:53:09.660 | like when we're making big decisions we have to think with the data and so um if someone catches

00:53:15.120 | covid and they and they lose five years and they die five years early then they statistically would

00:53:19.260 | have died that's five life years lost when a child dies you are losing 68 life years right

00:53:25.260 | that is an incredible loss of life is one is one way to kind of think about this statistically

00:53:29.280 | and so um you know part of I think what's been missing in the equation and it's easy to tell

00:53:34.800 | the narrative by speaking about people that have dead that have died that tested positive

00:53:39.460 | for covid when they died is it now speaks to the fact that this is a binary experience and there's

00:53:45.160 | a binary number of lives lost but the statistical the data-driven exercise which may sound inhuman

00:53:50.500 | and may sound awful but again we have to make these decisions using data if we're going to

00:53:54.820 | make large decisions that are going to impact everyone in a meaningful way is to look at the

00:53:58.720 | number of life years lost and I think if you were to do that you would still find that the vast

00:54:04.000 | majority of deaths associated with covid are very elderly people who are already very close to

00:54:09.260 | dying and that's why we are seeing the fatality rates so low right now in the United States even

00:54:13.460 | though covid is still spreading with the Delta variant it is because almost 90 percent of people

00:54:18.740 | over 70 have been vaccinated and as a result the people that are most at risk of dying are well

00:54:25.100 | protected and we are not seeing a significant loss of life associated with this terrible virus the

00:54:29.540 | terrible virus is still spreading but the life loss is still not there now someone might raise

00:54:33.320 | their hand and say well we don't know the long-term implications long-term ramifications

00:54:36.260 | long-haul covid yeah I would raise my other hand and

00:54:39.060 | say show me what the data is that says that there are those long-term implications ramifications

00:54:44.520 | because I can say the what ifs about anything and then implement any policy decision I want

00:54:48.840 | by just saying what if and we don't know we have to say we do know here's the data in order to

00:54:53.820 | make a tough decision versus saying we need to be you know protective and use the protective you

00:54:58.620 | know principle of um of precaution or the precautionary principle and be really careful

00:55:03.900 | in these circumstances uh because at this point the impact and the damage associated

00:55:08.860 | with some of our practices to quote unquote guard against covid and and you know protect people it's

00:55:14.380 | turning out there real consequences to those decisions all right freeberg final question on

00:55:18.700 | covid uh should you wear two condoms in other words should you get materna and Pfizer or J&J

00:55:24.940 | and Pfizer there are studies coming out now to say one plus one equals three there is some super

00:55:30.640 | effect of getting two I am looking into this I'm thinking I'm going to get a second vaccine

00:55:35.800 | I might get you to get a modern or a Pfizer or J&J just

00:55:38.660 | don't wait don't waste the vaccine shots let them go to other countries you know not needed

00:55:44.720 | not needed even though the studies are starting to show it gives you increased

00:55:48.920 | I mean do you need your test do you need your Tesla to go from 180 to 185 miles an hour I mean

00:55:53.840 | like you know that's a good point I mean look everything we learn about the vaccines makes

00:55:59.000 | them look better and better the protection lasts longer than we thought the um they're

00:56:04.100 | more effective against variants than people were afraid of and now we

00:56:08.460 | have learned that there is even more protection by sort of this mix and match idea so the vaccines

00:56:13.020 | have worked there are still I think a couple of groups in America that are very vaccine hesitant

00:56:18.060 | um evangelicals and African Americans are the two groups I thought it was male Republicans

00:56:24.420 | it's it's more like evangelicals and so in a place like Mississippi where you have large numbers of

00:56:30.060 | both the vaccine rates only like 29 30 it's actually pretty low in a place like that you

00:56:35.520 | could see the Delta variant sweep through

00:56:38.100 | in the fall and you could see a lot of cases I you know let me let me buck your labeling

00:56:44.820 | categorization of me Jake by saying that I don't think the leaders on the right are doing anyone

00:56:51.660 | any favors any of their voters any favors by not coming out and saying look the vaccines work you

00:56:58.020 | know I think Trump could do a lot of good by coming out and just saying listen I got the

00:57:01.800 | vaccine I'm pretty sure he did right he did he did and so you know I think if you are

00:57:07.200 | in one of those groups you know and certainly you're over like 40 you should be getting the

00:57:12.660 | vaccine I mean they work not to harp on this but what did Trump say when you suggested he

00:57:16.800 | come out publicly about nobody's listening to me nobody's no it's fine nobody's listening to me

00:57:23.220 | obviously I mean it is very weird that Trump spent massive amounts of money on the vaccine

00:57:33.660 | and now doesn't want to take credit for Project Lightspeed by telling everybody

00:57:36.960 | to get it I think he's got a lot of other issues I think he's got a lot of other issues on the

00:57:42.120 | plate to deal with including an indictment that just landed yesterday so maybe you know maybe he

00:57:47.040 | just doesn't know what to focus on because he he sees his uh his budding Empire unraveling before

00:57:52.680 | him did you see the report that said that Trump was extremely thrilled by the fact that his CFO

00:57:58.200 | was indicted for two reasons one is it kind of um indicates that they didn't have enough to

00:58:03.540 | go after him and two is it's going to make Joe Biden look bad

00:58:06.900 | and his administration look bad uh because it looks like they're being kind of prosecuted

00:58:11.880 | and persecuted now but that he views this as a positive and it and it and he's thinking about

00:58:16.320 | it as a way to kind of stage a 2024 run well I didn't I didn't see that particular story but

00:58:22.320 | I do think that okay well what the charges show I think is that they got nothing on Trump directly

00:58:30.180 | um I mean this turned out to be a big nothing burger after years of investigation just like

00:58:36.420 | the whole Russia thing and so it's 15 felony counts

00:58:40.320 | let's finish this point Trump was not let me finish Trump Trump was not named they didn't

00:58:47.580 | get close to Trump all they got was they're trying to charge uh wesselheim who's a CFO with basically

00:58:53.400 | receiving certain perks as compensation violations it was crazy yeah this is penny Annie stuff it

00:59:00.000 | does look like persecution rather than prosecution and what they're trying to do is they're going

00:59:05.280 | after this guy wesselheim

00:59:06.360 | to squeeze him to try and roll over on Trump well good luck with that that's about as likely to

00:59:12.420 | happen as uh Putin releasing the p tapes not going to happen sorry J Cal Trump is getting away so one

00:59:18.300 | thing I would say I think that I disagree with respectfully is um this is a 15-year uh tax

00:59:26.400 | avoidance scheme that included more than TNA included people getting their tuition paid for

00:59:31.620 | for free and free apartments so the Jason would be and then hold on they then

00:59:36.300 | knowingly did this and changed the books knowingly so they caught them going into their

00:59:40.740 | accounting and changing to hide it and so the cover-up worse than the crime this is an explicit

00:59:46.260 | way to not pay their taxes this would be if all of us took our personal residences and our kids

00:59:51.360 | private school tuition and didn't pay taxes on it's it's significant Jason so the total amount

00:59:56.460 | for example that this guy got in uh tuition reimbursements over this 15-year period was

01:00:02.640 | about three hundred and seventy five thousand dollars the total amount of

01:00:06.240 | some other rent perks that he got was for about 1.6 or seven million dollars the total amount of

01:00:12.360 | value that I think his son got you know was spending a thousand dollars a month in a Trump

01:00:16.740 | owned apartment when you add it all up for a guy that was accused of you know being in cahoots with

01:00:24.300 | Russia this and that and everything you pinch the CFO for a few million dollars of effectively again

01:00:31.500 | T and E let's just say that he did it you know some of these checks came directly from

01:00:36.180 | from Trump it I think I agree with David it's a bit of a nothing burger and it really does look

01:00:41.940 | like it's politically motivated and the reason is because these kinds of Chargers are typically not

01:00:47.880 | brought these are things that typically result in a civil penalty a restatement and you just kind of

01:00:53.340 | move on you know nobody nobody's trying to send somebody to jail for you know getting for mis

01:00:59.400 | miscategorizing I have a theory because we don't have full information and they weren't investigating

01:01:03.840 | this stuff before Trump became a politician

01:01:05.520 | um why weren't why this if this has been going on for 15 years why didn't this investigation happen

01:01:10.860 | five six seven years ago I could tell you what his um the daughter-in-law of weisselbergs uh was uh

01:01:20.460 | received a lot of these perks and then she dropped a dime and gave all the documents to them my theory

01:01:25.380 | on this is because we don't have complete information yet I think that they have other

01:01:29.700 | I think they have this bigger tax uh case around making the assets

01:01:35.400 | look um smaller when paying taxes and inflating the value of the assets when getting loans and I

01:01:42.300 | think they want to get that and the way to get that is to flip weisselberg because Trump does

01:01:47.280 | not use email and Communications I think that that's what's going on here um but yes you're

01:01:52.140 | right they're trying to they're trying to flip him look the the KGB had a saying show us the man

01:01:57.300 | will tell you the crime okay they decided we're gonna go after Trump this is entirely political

01:02:02.940 | they weren't interested in him five six seven years ago once he got into politics they became

01:02:07.620 | interested in him he became the man and now they are trying to roll up and flip all these people

01:02:12.600 | and try to get them to turn on Trump and give them something these Democratic Pitbull prosecutors they

01:02:17.640 | are going to make Trump look like the victim here this will rebound I think in a negative way it is

01:02:22.440 | a really stupid thing that they're doing I mean this this could have happened in so many different

01:02:26.760 | ways the guy was finished and washed up right he was in his little hovel

01:02:32.640 | in Florida you know no Twitter account you know in the one no Twitter account no access to his

01:02:37.800 | base um the one time he actually showed up in New York two or three weeks ago I don't know if you

01:02:42.300 | guys saw the photos he looks so disheveled so old so broken let the guy wither into obscurity but

01:02:50.100 | instead you pin these charges you create an entire press cycle you're going to rally so many people

01:02:56.340 | on the right and actually a lot of people in general who feel like wait what are we doing

01:03:00.180 | as a country why don't we just let it just be

01:03:02.580 | be done with this guy I don't ever want to hear about him ever again and instead we're kind of

01:03:06.840 | like bringing it all back front center I just think it's a bad look what do you think about

01:03:12.480 | the insurrection commission do you think that that should um should be disbanded as well because no

01:03:18.420 | you think that should that should be pursued yeah because that's not necessarily about Trump that it

01:03:23.100 | is about a whole totality of things that really will lead into the fact that we have a lot of far

01:03:30.060 | right organizations

01:03:31.320 | that need to be understood we have one far left organization that needs to be understood all in

01:03:38.580 | the same light which is that these folks are destabilizing force to democracy

01:03:42.600 | and so yeah you got to get to the bottom of what the hell happened sex do you do you think the

01:03:49.020 | insurrection commission is going to be equally kind of politically motivating for uh for Trump's

01:03:53.940 | face and for folks like that well I just think that you have to decide as a country whether

01:03:59.520 | you're going to keep re-litigating you know what happened in the previous administration I mean if

01:04:04.680 | we're going to go back and keep this going you know we're going to go back and look at why did

01:04:09.180 | the FBI use the steel dossier to go to a FISA court to spy on members of the Trump campaign

01:04:16.860 | had there were 17 misrepresentations in their uh in their petition to the FISA court I mean there

01:04:23.340 | was clear misconduct there we're going to go back and re-litigate that and go after people and

01:04:27.480 | punish them look maybe we should okay but I think that's the the the the the the the the the the the

01:04:28.320 | maybe we should okay but I think that this is the thing about politics everyone just wants to move

01:04:33.240 | forward we're in a new administration now whatever misconduct occurred I think the punishment was paid

01:04:39.720 | at the ballot box I think it's just time to move on and I agree with that and I look I know there's

01:04:45.120 | gonna be a lot of partisans on both sides who just want to go re-litigate and punish their enemies

01:04:50.280 | forever but you know I think the American people just want to move forward yeah what do you and the

01:04:56.580 | far what are you and the far left want to do

01:04:57.960 | right well I'm not on the far left I mean I I think that there is a I do think that there is a

01:05:02.640 | bunch of gamesmanship here I think this is a a chess board that on the left they're saying if

01:05:09.660 | we we if we have a chance to take Trump out of political life we need to do that because the

01:05:17.340 | cost of him getting re-elected in 2024 is too great and so what we're talking about here is

01:05:23.160 | you know what is the best path to doing that and you know chamath's right like

01:05:27.660 | just letting him fade into obscurity he may not want to run again because he's so old and it's so

01:05:32.100 | painful to be present he's 75 I mean he's going to be 78 or no 70 he'll be the same age as Biden

01:05:38.580 | going I I mean this is ridiculous both of these two guys are one-term presidents I think that is

01:05:44.340 | abundantly clear I think the question is what is Biden's transition plan you know does he actually

01:05:50.220 | only stay two years and transitions it to kamala I don't know but there's no way that he's running

01:05:55.920 | for a second term either he does not look healthy I think that much is at least and I'm saying this

01:06:02.160 | as you know a centrist Democrat he doesn't look completely fit um and it's only going to get worse

01:06:08.460 | and this is the most incredibly stressful job in the world neither of these two guys are our long

01:06:13.440 | term solution it's time to let it all go right it's like we had four years of just chaos we now

01:06:23.760 | get to have four years to catch our breath

01:06:25.740 | it's time to find the late 40s to mid 50s centrist normal people again

01:06:33.120 | and we have three years to do it who do you think that is uh on the Republican side and

01:06:38.700 | who do you think it is on the Democrat side who's going to run for the next election cycle

01:06:42.240 | because just this morning by the way an article came out that um highlighted that several Insiders

01:06:48.540 | in the White House are completely like up in arms about how uh chaotic uh Kamala Harris's

01:06:55.560 | office

01:06:55.680 | is going to run for the next election cycle because just this morning by the way an article came out that highlighted that several insiders in the White House are completely like up in arms about how chaotic uh Kamala Harris's office

01:06:55.680 | is which is basically a way of starting to shoot her down right so if you think about the the motivation

01:07:00.780 | here someone in the White House is starting to shoot Kamala Harris down which means they're

01:07:04.560 | starting to weaken her a little bit in terms of whether she could actually be a good replacement

01:07:08.820 | for the next term I don't know if that's truly the motivation but that's typically what these

01:07:12.480 | sorts of stories indicate so if not her if not her who on the Democrat side and you know if not Trump

01:07:19.560 | who on the Republican side in the next election cycle because those folks are going to start to

01:07:25.620 | win I think the I think the person who has enough credibility to take a shot it's not clear that she

01:07:32.460 | will but if she did she would be really serious and she could actually get people to be relatively

01:07:38.040 | normal as Nikki Haley on the right but Ron DeSantis is going to be the rights candidate

01:07:44.160 | correct and she's kind of normal DeSantis is definitely the early front runner um there was

01:07:49.440 | a straw poll in which he was the first Republican to actually run ahead of Trump in a straw poll for

01:07:55.560 | what four or five years and uh so yeah it looks like um he now he's running for reelection in

01:08:03.000 | Florida in 2022 so that's on his plate and but I think it looks like he's going to sweep to victory

01:08:10.260 | he made the right decisions on lockdowns this is the central feather in his cap that before

01:08:16.620 | any other governor really he looked at the data saw that to freeberg's point lockdowns don't make

01:08:22.500 | a difference he went back to normal the state

01:08:25.500 | benefited you look at per capita covet deaths in Florida it's middle of the pack which is actually

01:08:30.420 | a really good result given how many old people they have so he did a phenomenal job I think

01:08:35.760 | setting covet policy in Florida and he did it in the face of a hostile media that was just

01:08:42.420 | tearing him limb from limb and so he showed that he not only can find the right policy but that

01:08:47.760 | he's got the spine to stand up for it and I think as a result of that yeah he has galvanized early

01:08:55.440 | in the Republican base if he wins reelection in 2022 by uh by a strong margin I think he does

01:09:02.460 | become the putative front runner for 2024. very similar in a way I think to the way that that

01:09:07.560 | George W Bush you know he he basically won reelection in Texas two years before he ran

01:09:13.920 | for president and on the heels of that victory he was able to make the case look I just got

01:09:18.360 | re-elected I'm very popular in a huge state of the country you know I should be the front runner I

01:09:24.180 | think DeSantis is in a similar position

01:09:25.380 | what do you think about Nikki Haley sex I think Nikki Haley is sort of popular with the

01:09:31.320 | establishment wing of the Republican Party but she does not bring together both the the sort of

01:09:37.140 | the establishment wing with the populist wing and what DeSantis has been able to do is get the

01:09:42.780 | business Republicans and the establishment Republicans to get behind him as well as the

01:09:48.120 | populist Trump base loves him and that's that's the um that's the combo you gotta have I think to to win

01:09:55.320 | the Republican nomination and so Nikki Haley I think you know everybody who sort of reads Elite

01:10:01.500 | media is going to over index on her but if you go to the the straw polls and the rallies she's not

01:10:07.920 | just not going to perform in those polls there's a very interesting article in politico though over

01:10:12.180 | the past week about how DeSantis is being very careful not to do anything to upset Trump and I

01:10:18.240 | think he understands is he the VP candidate with Trump you think well that that pre-assumes a lot of things happen

01:10:25.260 | happening I mean look we don't know what's going to happen I think that you know the the number one

01:10:31.260 | way to resurrect Trump is what Jamas said is to keep poking that bear to fill him with the the

01:10:38.040 | rage to to sort of counter punch and come back I think it would be better however for a new generation

01:10:45.180 | of leaders to look we have we're being run by a gerontocracy right now so I mean just Biden is 78

01:10:52.200 | Pelosi is 80. Schumer is 77.

01:10:55.200 | McConnell is 80 and Trump is 75 and that's today okay in 2024 all those people are going to be in

01:11:01.800 | their 80s or just about who will even be alive I mean Feinstein will be 91 or 92. it's time to have a

01:11:08.640 | new generation in both parties why are we being run by this gerontocracy what a joke do we want to move

01:11:13.860 | on to the drought and impending uh death and or the Facebook FTC dismissal oh that was incredible

01:11:21.300 | and also at the uh FTC got two gut punches

01:11:25.140 | in a row uh and then you know Amazon writes this petition to recuse Lena Khan it's like that's why

01:11:31.800 | she was hired incredible she was hired because she's an expert on Amazon the the Amazon the

01:11:37.080 | Amazon letter was actually extremely well written and basically said I know that she's in charge of

01:11:43.080 | basically finding fairness and fairness seems to be that we will get legislated but we believe that

01:11:48.180 | it's unfair to us so please take her out of a mix I just think it was fantastic I mean it's incredible

01:11:55.080 | point of having her in the job it's like we've hired a new prosecutor who specializes in organized

01:12:00.420 | crime and the Gambino crime family has petitioned to have them exactly recused from doing any

01:12:06.780 | organized crime right their argument is that she should be recused because she published articles

01:12:12.240 | yeah that Amazon should be broken up and they're saying she's already prejudged the situation there's

01:12:17.400 | no way this is gonna fly there's no way she's gonna get recused but I think what they're trying

01:12:22.620 | to do is put an argument on appeal

01:12:25.020 | so that if Lena Khan does break them up somehow they can then go appeal to the stream Court or

01:12:31.500 | wherever and and this is basically reserving an argument they can make later so just to highlight

01:12:36.720 | the FTC um brought this case against Facebook saying that they're a Monopoly and their

01:12:42.960 | monopolistic practices are damaging the market the DC federal court threw out the case and they

01:12:48.660 | basically said that the FTC failed to demonstrate in any way that Facebook has a monopoly over anything

01:12:54.960 | because they kept using the 60 percent market share term and they're like 60 percent what and

01:12:59.820 | the FTC was never able to give them data or facts to indicate what Facebook has a 60 percent share

01:13:06.120 | of there are other social media services there are other advertising platforms there are other content

01:13:10.800 | sites that are all um in aggregate much larger than Facebook and so the case was dismissed

01:13:16.500 | because there was no demonstration at all yeah which is why Lena of the traditional

01:13:21.480 | definition of a Monopoly and then Elizabeth Warren comes out two days ago

01:13:24.900 | and says we need to rewrite the laws uh the antitrust laws entirely redefine what it means

01:13:30.240 | to be a Monopoly redefine what this this impacts and so I think the big question is how much of

01:13:35.040 | a priority is it going to be for this administration and for this Congress before they're out of

01:13:39.000 | session and and we end up with a split Congress again to step up and rewrite antitrust laws at

01:13:44.160 | this point is this really a high priority quest um or is it going to get that's why Lena Khan is

01:13:49.080 | being brought in is to take another approach like we talked about on the last episode which is you

01:13:54.840 | know the alarm is competition uh and not uh the monopolistic power but downstream competition as

01:14:02.700 | Chamath uh eloquently explained on the last pod the irony of the Elizabeth Warren uh statements

01:14:08.400 | was that she released them on Twitter not her Facebook somebody dunked on her like she's talking

01:14:13.200 | about the monopolistic powers of Facebook on Twitter right right you have an alternative

01:14:17.640 | that's the point um I'd say I mean how big of how big of a like legislative priority is this going to

01:14:23.820 | be for Democrat Democrats or Democrat Democrats I mean I think it's going to be a big one I think it's

01:14:24.780 | going to be a big one I think it's going to be a big one I think it's going to be a big one I think it's going to be a big one

01:14:24.840 | Democrats because this could be if they rewrite the laws it could be impactful to Amazon Apple

01:14:30.840 | Facebook Google you know everyone it's a huge priority there's six bills that just got passed

01:14:35.460 | in the house that's going to the Senate and I do think moving fast this is one of the areas where

01:14:39.600 | you could actually get some bipartisan agreement in the Senate you remember it's a 50 50 Senate

01:14:44.820 | all it would take would be a few Democrats to defect and they wouldn't be able to pass

01:14:48.300 | anything but you got 21 Republicans who supported Lena Khan so you know that

01:14:54.720 | it says to me that legislation is likely I think it's going to go through I think we are going to

01:15:00.360 | see some some big changes and in fairness to Lena Khan this FTC lawsuit that got thrown out was

01:15:06.600 | brought before she got there she didn't have a chance to shape those arguments they have 30 days

01:15:11.580 | to refile it'll be really interesting to see how she handles this hot potato now whether she brings

01:15:17.820 | the lawsuit in a different way in the next 30 days or whether she lets it drop but I do think that of

01:15:24.660 | all the big tech companies the argument for breaking up Facebook is the weakest because

01:15:28.560 | it's true like it's it's harder to say definitively they have a monopoly in social

01:15:33.900 | networking when you've got Twitter you've got uh Snapchat you've got Reddit you've got LinkedIn

01:15:39.660 | you've got LinkedIn you've got so many other companies in social media but but that does not

01:15:44.460 | mean that the argument against Amazon Google and Apple isn't strong those companies are clearly

01:15:50.220 | monopolies or duopolies in their spaces nobody can effectively compete with them

01:15:54.600 | their network effects or Monopoly scale effects I think that Facebook's monopolistic impact probably

01:16:00.300 | tends towards some form of information distribution but it's a very technical argument that has to be

01:16:06.540 | framed accurately on the one side or it's how they've aggregated long-tail advertisers on the

01:16:11.760 | other but to your point David on the idea of social networking I don't think they're a

01:16:15.300 | monopoly in the least well also they're relitigating the approved acquisitions of

01:16:19.740 | Instagram and WhatsApp I kind of feel like if you bought these things and you approved it what is it

01:16:24.540 | what is it nine years ago and seven years ago yeah they said they said if you guys had an issue

01:16:29.580 | that you know the state's attorney general that filed the suit against the Instagram acquisition

01:16:33.900 | and WhatsApp they're like if you had an issue with it you should have filed the suit years ago you

01:16:37.380 | waited too long and clearly there's you know you know other motivations like just because Google

01:16:41.700 | was successful buying YouTube doesn't mean you can go back in and unwind YouTube because they did a

01:16:46.620 | great job building YouTube 99.999 of YouTube success is because of Google not because of

01:16:52.380 | YouTube totally right they took a small team

01:16:54.480 | and they rebuilt that whole thing and they scaled the heck out of it let me ask you a question to

01:16:58.500 | Sachs if these companies paid more taxes and got out of the censorship business uh do you think

01:17:05.220 | they could you know maybe take a little wind out of the sales of yes yeah of course look the only

01:17:10.680 | reason the only reason those 21 Republicans have now gotten on board with regulating the power of

01:17:15.960 | these big tech companies is they see those big tech companies using their gatekeeper power to

01:17:20.700 | restrict free speech and it's all one-sided and as partisan

01:17:24.420 | against you know their side of the aisle because these companies are populated generally speaking

01:17:29.820 | by people on the other side of the aisle and so you know big tech if they had just reined in their

01:17:34.500 | own impulses to want to censor the other side they would not be in the hot water they're in right now

01:17:39.660 | because it seems like Facebook is starting to backtrack on the Trump ban

01:17:44.040 | well they haven't Twitter and I think I think they got a big problem now no look I think they

01:17:49.860 | should have been doing this over the last couple of years the cats out of the bag what they thought

01:17:53.520 | would never happen all of a sudden became arbitrary and the thing that they did was they started to

01:17:58.560 | legislate a private company started to legislate power and that's just a third rail issue the

01:18:05.820 | minute you do that you have every government in the world saying to you're saying to themselves

01:18:09.360 | wait a minute I am only focused on this one thing right I don't take a huge salary I've been grinding

01:18:16.140 | at the low levels of politics for 40 50 years to get to this exact place and now I have a bunch of

01:18:22.020 | hipsters in Menlo Park telling me what I can and can't say to the people that I worked a lifetime

01:18:27.420 | to basically be able to govern over I mean I you know yeah you can't it can't stand yeah so I think

01:18:34.200 | a big mistake that Zuckerberg made goes all the way back to 2016. Facebook basically bought into

01:18:39.660 | the disinformation argument they apologized for it what that was the time for Zuckerberg to fight

01:18:45.180 | he should have said no listen was the FSB were these bad actors on Facebook yes but when you look

01:18:51.420 | at the total number of impressions and page views it was like a drop of water in the ocean we're not

01:18:56.880 | the ones who caused this election to go the way it did Obama used Facebook very effectively in 2008

01:19:03.480 | and nobody had a problem with us then and that was the time to fight that was the time to fight

01:19:08.580 | and to your point David he actually should have been even more he said the reason Trump got elected

01:19:13.560 | was not me but it was Obama you know he could have really gone on the attack and he would have done

01:19:19.380 | himself well look Hillary just ran a bad campaign

01:19:21.360 | campaign if Hillary had just campaigned in Wisconsin it would have gone a different way

01:19:24.720 | in 2016. so what she had an idiot team she had an idiot she had a terrible team and they were

01:19:30.480 | bad at everything including Facebook including everything social media so Zuck should have said

01:19:36.120 | listen don't blame us for the fact the campaign was bad at social media they put victory into

01:19:41.280 | the jaws of defeat uh let's uh end on this U.S Sprinter case I think it's super interesting

01:19:45.780 | U.S Sprinter shock it's unbelievable Richardson test positive for marijuana and it's suspended a

01:19:51.300 | month putting her Tokyo what a joke in doubt uh she is the gold medal favorite in the women's 100

01:19:57.360 | meter and she could miss the games after testing positive she said she smoked pot when she found

01:20:03.300 | out uh in Oregon legally when she found out her mom had died um and it's on the United States

01:20:10.920 | I don't being agency announced this result on Friday her explanation is so heartbreaking

01:20:18.840 | I mean what are we doing

01:20:21.240 | this is similar to the golfer who was about to win the PGA and got kicked out on the final day

01:20:29.580 | because he tested positive for covid without any symptoms and an outdoor he's outside guys

01:20:34.140 | I cannot imagine a worse drug for a Sprinter than marijuana yeah I mean for healing great

01:20:42.960 | but it's I mean you're gonna like run the 100 meters stop for a cheeseburger you're gonna take

01:20:46.800 | it up it's not a it's not a performance enhancing drug what this is is this

01:20:51.000 | legalism these bureaucratic legalistic technicalities gone wild in this case of this

01:20:56.640 | runner in the case of the golfer I mean it's like it's like the bureaucrats enforcing the rules have

01:21:01.860 | completely lost sight of what the purpose of these rules are the spirit of the rule is super important

01:21:08.100 | um and there was a professional snowboarder and his name was Ross rubaglotti from Canada and he

01:21:19.320 | wanted a medal and they took his medal away uh because he had THC in his system and disqualified

01:21:27.300 | him and then they went back and gave him his metal back I believe and so this is heartbreaking

01:21:34.920 | and ridiculous and I I'm not going to watch the I love watching the Olympics I watch a

01:21:40.140 | lot of the Olympics I really enjoy it um I think it's awesome and I'm just not going

01:21:44.100 | to watch this this year it I just I'm so offended by this like you want these people to take like

01:21:48.240 | you want these people to take like a lot of the Olympics I really enjoy it um I think it's awesome

01:21:48.240 | and I'm just not gonna watch this this year fuck it I I just I'm so offended by this like you want

01:21:48.240 | these people to take like a lot of the Olympics I really enjoy it um I think it's awesome and I'm just

01:21:48.240 | not gonna watch this this year fuck it I I just I'm so offended by this like you want

01:21:48.240 | these people to take like opioids for their pain uh and suffering we want to take some

01:21:53.400 | antidepressant I mean Jesus Christ Jason look I also say like in in our friend group we have

01:22:00.060 | a handful of NBA players and I don't I don't think you remember this conversation maybe you

01:22:05.040 | do I think we were all together when they talked about the up until uh marijuana was

01:22:12.420 | more widely used in the NBA yeah the pills that these players were given

01:22:17.280 | were literally borderline opioids crazy ripped their stomach apart ripped everything apart you

01:22:24.600 | know created dependencies and all of a sudden you had a natural alternative and people are going to

01:22:30.360 | judge folks for taking I mean these guys are brutalizing their bodies for energy for effectively

01:22:36.300 | our entertainment and then we don't give them a reasonable way to manage their pain it's outrageous

01:22:41.220 | and everybody else is smoking a doobie during halftime or taking a gummy on the way home to sleep

01:22:47.160 | I mean it's so hypocritical and it feels like I mean this country just feels like it's being run

01:22:53.460 | by a bunch of bureaucratic technocratic weenies and whether it's monitors whether it's we should

01:23:00.720 | give them a wedgie and throw them in the locker that's what we should do with this I whoever put

01:23:05.280 | this person they get a wedgie and get thrown in a locker I knew you I knew you were a schoolyard

01:23:10.020 | bully J Cal I'm not a schoolyard bully but I do think the hall monitors you know those p you were

01:23:15.000 | a hall monitor weren't just sex

01:23:16.260 | did you volunteer to be a hall monitor be honest no no no no you were in the chess club I liked our

01:23:23.040 | chess game sacks yeah okay this is how I knew this is how I knew that J Cal wasn't really I knew I

01:23:29.520 | knew I had heard him okay I knew he was genuinely hurt but I knew he would get over it when I got I

01:23:35.340 | saw my push notifications or request from chess.com he started a chess game with me so I'm like oh how

01:23:42.000 | did I play because I'm a neophyte he couldn't have he couldn't be away for how easy was it

01:23:46.200 | to beat me as a 1200 player to my 600 yeah well the chess.com analysis said that uh I was never I

01:23:53.160 | was never in any danger but uh I thought you played pretty well and uh yeah give me a tip

01:23:58.080 | what's my tip well you you didn't Castle fast enough you let me you let me get that Bishop

01:24:03.960 | out yeah you let me trap your king in the center and then you know it was a but but you did good

01:24:09.780 | you did good all right I knew I was okay with you and I got the chess.com I think we need a Vegas

01:24:14.880 | run maybe we're all just a little cooped up maybe we need to go to Vegas do a quick 48 hour run this

01:24:19.920 | weekend should we do a little 48 hour Vegas run all right everybody this has been an amazing

01:24:27.060 | episode so uh I'm officially unblocking sacks and um I even followed him love you Chamath love you

01:24:35.100 | sacks love you free bird Jake I have something to say to you as well which is I appreciate you I I I

01:24:43.740 | love love sister breakdown it back at you

01:24:49.080 | let your winners ride Rain Man David Sacks

01:24:57.360 | and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy

01:25:03.660 | love you queen of Kinwa

01:25:06.420 | besties

01:25:13.680 | we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless it's

01:25:27.720 | like this like sexual tension but they just need to release them out what you're about to be your feet

01:25:35.220 | we need to get merchies are

01:25:38.520 | going all in

01:25:40.140 | are you wearing your boxers what are you wearing

01:25:50.160 | these are my swim trunks oh swim trunks ah there they are the internet famous legs

01:26:01.500 | I mean these legs are actually but much much bigger look look how big they are oh please

01:26:06.600 | tell me you're recording Nick look at how big these are

E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more

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