Warning-Dont_Let_My_Optimism_Lead_To_Your_Inaction_Coronavirus
00:00:00.000 | Good morning radicals. Welcome back to the show today going to talk with you again
00:00:04.220 | about the
00:00:07.060 | COVID-19
00:00:09.240 | coronavirus
00:00:10.500 | pandemic and some bits of response to to that and the thesis that I want to share with you this morning is
00:00:17.200 | simply I don't want you to let my
00:00:19.960 | optimistic tone keep you from
00:00:23.200 | from taking things seriously and from taking steps of preparation in
00:00:29.760 | short my summary statement is it is definitely time to take the coronavirus extremely seriously
00:00:36.920 | I think that it is time to engage in proactive social isolation. I think that it is time to
00:00:42.800 | To go to what is Defcon 5?
00:00:46.200 | certainly
00:00:48.160 | If you really anywhere in the world
00:00:50.280 | And we'll talk about that in a moment, but I want to back up now that you know my thesis
00:00:55.460 | That's that's that's my point that I want to drive home to you
00:00:57.860 | and I went back up and give you just a little bit of preamble last night I recorded the show and
00:01:03.320 | that I did kind of a brief overview was talking about the changes and I once again tried to strike an optimistic tone and
00:01:10.560 | Then I released the show went to bed. I was thinking about it during the night as I woke up early this morning
00:01:16.320 | I was just considering what I shared with you and I realized that I
00:01:20.920 | Have been striking an overly optimistic tone
00:01:26.360 | Partly because I am genuinely optimistic
00:01:29.080 | But partly also out of simple fear and self-preservation
00:01:34.440 | basically, I don't want to be seen as somebody who is
00:01:40.600 | Irrationally shouting fire
00:01:44.000 | Irrationally shouting the sky is falling etc. And that's a weighty responsibility and basically it comes down to my own personal pride
00:01:52.600 | The pride and the desire to be right and not to be one who shouts unnecessarily about a crisis
00:01:58.720 | When you are on record with your words in a public format people will remember what you've said and they will remember
00:02:06.720 | Whether you got things right or wrong. I think back to things like the y2k bug
00:02:14.440 | there were many people who saw the major risks of a y2k bug and
00:02:22.480 | people
00:02:24.480 | Who took y2k seriously recommended people that they said, you know stock up you need to prepare the computers are gonna fail
00:02:30.960 | Everything's gonna fall apart, etc. And they warned warned warned
00:02:33.880 | for years and then when the y2k event arrived it was
00:02:39.600 | basically a non event
00:02:42.440 | Nothing happened basically
00:02:45.280 | now
00:02:47.400 | that was a heavy load to bear for those people and I
00:02:52.560 | Being
00:02:53.800 | Being a late teenager. I then watched for years people get laughed at for taking y2k seriously
00:03:00.920 | For years, I watched people make fun of the people who bought a pallet of MREs and stored it in the garage for years
00:03:08.760 | I watched people
00:03:10.080 | Who were in the public space be brought back?
00:03:13.040 | Oh you you told everyone that y2k was gonna be a big deal and look you were wrong
00:03:17.200 | And in fact, I have actually asked people why they were wrong. I remember one time
00:03:22.640 | Dr. Gary North was on the program and he was a very loud
00:03:26.760 | Warner of y2k and I asked him one time I said
00:03:31.120 | Do you regret anything?
00:03:33.520 | They gave him the the moniker scary Gary for his intense y2k warnings and I asked him one time. I said do you regret?
00:03:42.040 | What you did with regard to y2k and his response and his typical Kurt
00:03:48.200 | one sentence way was something akin to
00:03:52.120 | I would rather
00:03:54.920 | be
00:03:56.600 | honestly wrong and
00:03:58.600 | I can't say it exactly. I would rather be honestly wrong and know that I
00:04:04.600 | Did my best?
00:04:07.560 | Then to be quiet out
00:04:11.080 | of fear and base and and feel like I shirked my duty and so that statement even though I've
00:04:17.160 | Made it entirely uneloquent
00:04:19.840 | The thrust of that statement has stuck with me for the years and I've tried to follow it and just as I woke up this morning
00:04:26.120 | I realized I
00:04:27.880 | I'm giving into fear of not wanting to to seem like a person who is overly paranoid overly
00:04:35.640 | obsessed overly strong
00:04:40.200 | Because with the psychology of the thing if I'm if I'm wrong, let's say that I give dire warnings about kovat 19 and I'm wrong
00:04:48.040 | having watched what happened in y2k I
00:04:51.600 | Everyone remembers it it gets rubbed all over the face if I do a search for my name online
00:04:58.520 | There's a forum somewhere. This is what Joshua sheet said this crazy thing
00:05:02.360 | But but he was so stupid and then that forever is linked to me
00:05:06.480 | I go to apply for a job interview in 20 years and forever all of that is there
00:05:10.840 | Just like to this day you can do a search for I don't know Gary North y2k
00:05:15.480 | And you'll find all these articles talking about how wrong he was
00:05:17.920 | Whereas if I'm cautious in my
00:05:23.160 | Speech if I'm fine if I keep my tongue bridled and don't say anything, you know
00:05:28.960 | I'm not I'm not the nail that sticks up then and everybody is wrong. At least I don't get singled out and
00:05:35.120 | I can kind of sit back and and
00:05:37.520 | blend in with the crowd
00:05:40.760 | but I care more about
00:05:42.920 | being honest and being able to sleep with myself at night and and look myself in the mirror and and
00:05:49.400 | Respect the man who I see then I do about being wrong. And so I want to
00:05:55.200 | Try to that's why I'm re-recording what I have just said
00:05:58.920 | Today to try to articulate to you
00:06:04.120 | The risk of a global flu pandemic
00:06:08.520 | I am genuinely more optimistic about the risks of
00:06:19.720 | This particular global pandemic
00:06:23.800 | Than I was a few months ago
00:06:27.200 | because
00:06:29.440 | this particular
00:06:31.440 | strain of the virus
00:06:33.640 | Does not seem to have the highest mortality rate
00:06:38.080 | That has previously been feared. This does not have the mortality rate of
00:06:43.800 | The black plague right the plague this does not have the mortality rate of
00:06:48.720 | Ebola it does not have that kind of guaranteed death sentence mortality rate
00:06:55.240 | That does not mean however
00:06:58.400 | That it's not extremely deadly
00:07:03.520 | The best data right now seems to indicate that of the people who
00:07:07.800 | become infected with coronavirus
00:07:11.400 | about 12% of
00:07:14.240 | Those who are infected will have severe symptoms and about 5% of the people who are infected
00:07:22.200 | Will have critical symptoms and need critical care
00:07:25.960 | With some number of those people dying
00:07:32.080 | Now we can find reasons to be grateful I shared with you last night
00:07:35.640 | I am thankful that children do not seem to be deeply
00:07:40.040 | Affected by this disease as the father of four young children. That's a an incredible
00:07:45.520 | Relief to me, but that does not mean that
00:07:52.880 | My life cannot be entirely disrupted with elderly people
00:08:01.240 | Becoming infected with the disease. I
00:08:03.240 | Have parents you have parents. I have one grandmother still alive. She's a hundred and six
00:08:10.240 | Now in one way if she she lives in a nursing facility
00:08:14.080 | She's a hundred and six if she gets infected
00:08:16.760 | With the coronavirus and she dies. I'll take comfort in the fact that she lived a long life
00:08:22.200 | It's hard to expect all that many more years when your grandmother is a hundred and six
00:08:28.360 | But that doesn't make it any less
00:08:31.000 | important
00:08:32.360 | The loss of a grandmother loss of other grandparents in a nursing facility is a very big deal
00:08:37.600 | I have parents my wife has parents
00:08:39.880 | Great grandparents and so we don't want these people to be infected. That's a tremendous loss of life
00:08:46.960 | And of course elderly people are not the only people who are at risk
00:08:52.200 | so even with a
00:08:54.280 | Death rate and again, we don't know that the death rate
00:08:57.480 | The death rate will not be known until years after the initial waves of
00:09:01.680 | Will not be known with with with a high degree of accuracy
00:09:06.400 | Until years after some of the initial waves have passed through and you can take an entire
00:09:10.880 | Population where you can study and say here are the antibodies in their blood
00:09:14.840 | We know that they were infected and we can see what percentage of those people died
00:09:18.200 | but a few percent of death rate is a very significant thing and
00:09:23.640 | It is in addition to that. It's very significant because it can make death rates increase for other things
00:09:29.760 | one of the major risks of a
00:09:31.760 | Viral outbreak a viral pandemic is it places such a load on the medical system?
00:09:37.280 | That the hospitals are full the doctor's offices are full
00:09:40.600 | The doctor's offices are full of people who might be infected with coronavirus
00:09:45.040 | And what happens is all of the rest of the normal medical conditions that people are generally
00:09:51.600 | Suffering from now they now receive poorer care. Perhaps you have a chainsaw accident and you
00:09:57.480 | you
00:09:59.600 | Generally, you could get cared for pretty quickly
00:10:02.080 | But now the chainsaw is probably a bad example
00:10:05.200 | Anything happens and you could have gotten previously care for pretty quickly because you go to the emergency room
00:10:10.960 | You could be entered into the emergency room. You could go to ICU
00:10:13.760 | You could have your needs met and there was sufficient capacity in the medical system to care for you
00:10:18.840 | But now something has happened. You've had an accident experience some illness heart attack chainsaw accident, whatever the case is
00:10:24.360 | but the medical system is so overloaded you wind up waiting longer and longer at the
00:10:28.720 | Emergency room the intensive care unit is full of people with pneumonia and they can't care for you
00:10:34.580 | so people die
00:10:37.200 | maybe I was talking with a
00:10:39.280 | client of mine who was sharing with me some inside information from some friends of his who are in the medical community and the first
00:10:45.880 | responder community and he was they were talking about how one of the biggest concerns is if the
00:10:51.640 | If the virus starts to spread within the homeless community. Well that can
00:10:57.120 | Completely overwhelm all of the normal first responders who have to respond
00:11:01.600 | Because there's not no other real medical facilities that are available
00:11:04.840 | Except that somebody passes out on the street and the cops call the EMTs and EMTs come to come and help that person
00:11:11.600 | So picture your city has 10 ambulances operating at any specific time, but it also has a large homeless population
00:11:18.400 | But five of those ambulances are out taking care of homeless people who are passed out on the street due to coronavirus
00:11:25.040 | Infections and serious illness because they often have other medical conditions poor nutrition
00:11:30.040 | Alcoholism tobacco use drugs, etc. And so
00:11:35.320 | Then you have a heart attack and somebody calls the ambulance and the ambulance is delayed in coming
00:11:39.880 | So so there's the direct medical risk of the virus and then there's the secondary medical risk of an overloaded
00:11:47.720 | overtaxed medical system coming in from
00:11:50.680 | From because everyone's taking care of the virus. There are other risks as well
00:11:55.120 | Hospitals are famous places for you to get infections
00:11:58.560 | They work really hard and they try really hard, but I'm convinced that hospitals are dangerous and then data indicates that out
00:12:05.920 | They're less dangerous. If you're having a severe heart attack, they're less dangerous
00:12:09.680 | If your leg just got chopped off or you had a car accident
00:12:12.360 | They're less dangerous than staying on the side of the road
00:12:14.360 | But they're actually really dangerous places because there's lots of sick and infectious people there
00:12:18.920 | And so if your hospital is filled with sick and infectious people and you go in for something else
00:12:23.240 | now there's a good chance that that becomes a center for you to
00:12:27.240 | for you to
00:12:31.320 | Become ill or medical errors, right? Medical errors are a leading cause of death in the United States
00:12:37.440 | Obviously everybody involved in the medical system would like to bring that number down
00:12:43.600 | But it's hard to be perfect all the time
00:12:46.640 | But it's a lot harder to be perfect and to get everything right when you're personally stressed as a medical provider
00:12:54.520 | You're overworked. You're working long hours
00:12:57.600 | The hallways are full of sick people that you're trying to treat - you're worried about having enough masks to put on
00:13:02.720 | It's just a nightmare scenario that goes on and on and on and on and on
00:13:06.400 | so
00:13:09.520 | Back to my thesis what I'm trying to impress upon you. I'm genuinely optimistic
00:13:15.680 | because
00:13:19.160 | Children are not dying as much as previously was feared and the death rate was not previously what it was feared and
00:13:27.680 | For me personally, I have the luxury of being able to largely minimize and eliminate
00:13:34.680 | Almost any social contact. That's a real blessing. That's a real luxury. I
00:13:40.240 | Also
00:13:44.200 | I'm gonna use the word panicked because I think it implies
00:13:47.200 | What I want to imply without the actual
00:13:52.320 | Denotation of the word being true. I didn't panic but I panicked back in January. I didn't panic. I didn't freak out
00:13:58.440 | I responded. I mean I
00:14:00.440 | Responded back in January heavily when I started to see it
00:14:04.080 | I tried to maintain a lifestyle of preparedness
00:14:06.920 | But I don't have a bunker filled with three years worth of food largely because of traveling
00:14:11.620 | If I did if I was settled in one place and I had a farm
00:14:15.640 | I would have a bunker with three years worth of food in it
00:14:17.760 | but I don't and I have not been convinced that I should give up the
00:14:22.480 | Work that I'm doing in traveling in order to go and buy a farm with a bunker thought about it haven't done it
00:14:28.440 | So back in January, I saw the risk emerging and I said this is serious. I went stocked up on food stocked up on medical supplies
00:14:35.280 | Etc. Then in February, I saw it getting worse and I thought this is really serious
00:14:41.820 | And I went and I bought even more food and I bought more medical supplies. I bought
00:14:47.520 | rehydration things vitamins
00:14:49.520 | increased the vitamin dosages for my family to try to
00:14:54.200 | Know whether it works or not, but try to build immune systems tried to make sure I mean we already eat, you know tons of
00:15:00.800 | of a diverse diet, but I made sure again, we're getting lots of nutrients lots of
00:15:06.360 | Vitamins to to to make sure that we're really healthy. I
00:15:10.000 | Tried to increase my hand-washing
00:15:14.760 | You just had trying to teach my children because children are just awful at washing hands and you you go over it again and again
00:15:22.280 | They don't do it, but try to teach them the the medical hand-washing techniques to my children. So look, you know children
00:15:29.000 | Had my wife do it again. Well, I've been away the last few days like listen here give them this video
00:15:34.360 | Here's this that we're trying to get our two-year-old to do to learn how to wash hands and interlace the fingers and rotate
00:15:41.520 | them around and do the thumbs and so I you know
00:15:45.160 | We'll see how it's gone
00:15:46.960 | Because they remember that stuff and then they you say go wash hands and they all race in there and in two and a half
00:15:52.600 | Seconds later, they're back at the table with soaking wet hands. You didn't do it
00:15:56.040 | I'm sure every parent knows the the struggle
00:15:59.600 | But for me, I freaked out I responded and
00:16:04.000 | Panic and freak out are not good words. I
00:16:07.280 | Responded vigorously back in January in February so that by the time February got around I felt pretty confident
00:16:14.840 | I felt like okay. I've done about all I can do for a flu pandemic
00:16:18.560 | I have the supplies that I need to just simply stay at home
00:16:22.200 | I have enough food that I can stay at home for months
00:16:24.840 | I have a property that my family and I we can happily just stay at home for months
00:16:29.560 | I have enough money that I can just simply stay at home for months if my business implodes
00:16:33.920 | I have years worth of expenses saved. I can just simply figure it out. I can start another business
00:16:39.520 | I can get another job. I can figure it out, but I'm optimistic that my business won't implode. I have big plans
00:16:44.640 | I plan to make way more money this year than I did last year. No matter what like that's the goal, but
00:16:48.480 | I'm prepared. I could stay at home. I could isolate my family. I did everything I could think of to
00:16:55.120 | Protect against medical needs. So again, I tried to boost my family's immune systems. I bought some
00:17:03.680 | Made sure that we're stocked up on medications to bring down a fever
00:17:06.960 | Just basic care that I felt I could do at home. I bought a
00:17:10.480 | What's that stuff the Pedialyte or PediAssure kind of thing
00:17:15.200 | I bought some of those drinks and things that are could be used for rehydration
00:17:18.820 | I figured that if I have a child who's really sick in addition to other things that this could be a helpful source of nutrients
00:17:26.100 | I bought an oxygen concentrator
00:17:28.400 | I don't know whether that would work or not
00:17:30.240 | But in my thinking about what can I do if there's an overloaded medical system?
00:17:35.280 | And I've got a sick child or I'm sick or my wife is sick
00:17:38.560 | What can I do and it just seemed like an oxygen concentrator would be the best thing I could do
00:17:43.280 | I hope it was a waste of money. I hope I never need to use it, but I bought one
00:17:46.880 | I stocked up on masks. I stocked up on bleach. I got gallons of bleach
00:17:51.440 | I don't have a lot of like plastic sheeting to create a quarantine room, but I do have a plan for
00:17:59.200 | How I would quarantine a family member if it got sick. I don't honestly think we could do that
00:18:04.880 | It's one thing if I had a house full of adults that I could quarantine an adult in another room
00:18:10.400 | But I don't honestly see how we could actually do a family quarantine of a child and stick a child in a room and say
00:18:17.360 | You know, you're locked off here in this quarantine room. I don't think that's practical
00:18:20.660 | So i've done everything that I think I could do as far as I can tell
00:18:25.520 | You know have lots of water stored. I have water filters
00:18:29.280 | And I live in a place where there's tremendous access to food
00:18:32.000 | Um, uh all my you know, I've got food on all sides
00:18:35.520 | And so i'm not i'm not that worried about it
00:18:38.320 | And so for me doing that back in january and february I felt like I was
00:18:43.040 | Overreacting because no one else was doing anything. I felt that was overreacting
00:18:46.580 | But then I felt well prepared and I thought okay i've done everything so talked with my wife
00:18:51.280 | We went over our list. I said i've done everything that we can think of. Let's just go forward
00:18:54.960 | now since that time
00:18:57.520 | With the lower death rate. I felt that it was a real relief
00:19:02.320 | Like okay, it's not the black plague, right? It's not the it's not it doesn't have 50 mortality rate
00:19:07.840 | so I felt
00:19:09.920 | a real sense of relief and i've also felt a relief as i've watched the data improve in china and i've seen
00:19:17.120 | That some of the things that they've been able to do to beat things to beat to beat it now
00:19:22.240 | If the data is real, right?
00:19:23.520 | That's always the question but i'm going to for now assume that it is I think what they're doing is working
00:19:27.520 | The extreme measures that they did were are working
00:19:30.960 | um
00:19:33.840 | That's what was going on in my psychology
00:19:36.160 | That said
00:19:39.680 | It's time to take it even more seriously
00:19:43.360 | Here is what I currently believe is happening
00:19:47.120 | all around the world
00:19:49.440 | There are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who are infected who are spreading the infection
00:19:56.660 | And who simply don't realize it who are just starting to realize it
00:20:01.600 | But we're early in the reporting of the actual cases
00:20:07.440 | There's the lag between when somebody is infected
00:20:11.620 | and infectious
00:20:14.640 | And when they actually experience symptoms
00:20:17.360 | And then there's a lag as to when they actually experience symptoms
00:20:20.420 | Versus when they actually seek medical care receive some kind of test and are counted
00:20:26.560 | so
00:20:28.880 | It feels very hard
00:20:30.880 | To respond early. It's one thing for it was one thing for me to respond and stock up back in january and february did that
00:20:37.840 | but
00:20:39.520 | I did it rationally and I thought this is money that if I waste the money, okay
00:20:42.560 | I don't like to waste money, but i'll feel good
00:20:45.120 | Right. The biggest possible waste of money was I bought an oxygen concentrator spent 400
00:20:49.300 | But okay if I waste this i'll keep it around it might save somebody's life at some point
00:20:54.880 | And if nothing else I can give it to an elderly neighbor or whatnot
00:20:57.840 | But at least I knew the price tag
00:20:59.760 | But now we're at a point where you have to make lifestyle decisions
00:21:02.100 | And I think that the data and the evidence indicates that this is the time
00:21:07.840 | to engage in
00:21:10.480 | significant social isolation
00:21:13.040 | Now, I know that's harder for some people than others, but this is the time to do it
00:21:16.880 | If we wait
00:21:20.240 | Until the evidence is obvious that it's necessary there's a very good chance that it's too late
00:21:27.120 | That's why this is so hard
00:21:31.840 | In all the comments i've done on flu pandemics i've said and I've I've believed for years a a global
00:21:40.000 | viral outbreak
00:21:42.560 | is to me
00:21:43.920 | the worst
00:21:45.900 | Possible disaster that's practiced really that I can see an asteroid. Okay, whatever
00:21:50.480 | Um, I can't do much about an asteroid
00:21:52.880 | But of the of the things that has happened again and again throughout history a global flu outbreak or global viral infectious outbreak
00:22:00.720 | Is one of the worst things that can happen and for many reasons previously discussed
00:22:06.000 | But one reason is it's so slow moving and you can't be sure of what's necessary
00:22:10.980 | If there were a declaration of war
00:22:12.980 | From your neighboring country on your country, you would know that it's necessary for you to take action
00:22:18.900 | The news reports could show
00:22:21.620 | the tanks massing at the border
00:22:24.740 | If there were a nuclear explosion, you would know that that happened and you would know that your concern is warranted
00:22:32.340 | But right now everything looks totally normal
00:22:38.420 | As I record this episode i'm looking out the window of my hotel there are deer grazing in the woods
00:22:43.700 | there are
00:22:45.860 | Businessmen, there's a businessman getting in his car going about his day. There's a highway filled with cars
00:22:51.460 | Life looks normal outside
00:22:54.660 | Everything looks normal
00:22:57.220 | and yet
00:22:58.740 | we know
00:23:00.500 | There is a deadly little killer and millions of little cells that are deadly little killers
00:23:05.540 | Spreading all around and so you wonder what's too much and what's not
00:23:10.180 | Went down to breakfast this morning in the hotel
00:23:12.740 | Guy there coughing. Oh, I stayed 15 feet away. But is that enough?
00:23:16.420 | Right. Did he cough on the the silverware tray? I just washed my hands. Did I wash my hands again? It's maddening
00:23:22.980 | It's maddening because if you're going to take the the full measures
00:23:27.780 | It just causes disruptions to your lifestyle
00:23:33.540 | So I don't want you to think that my optimistic tone
00:23:38.100 | Implies that you should not take things seriously
00:23:41.640 | It feels weird right now to be the person who says all right, that's it. I'm not gonna go to this event
00:23:49.700 | It feels weird. It feels like an overreaction
00:23:53.240 | And I hope that it is an overreaction. I hope that it is
00:23:57.380 | But you've got to be careful
00:24:02.820 | But you've got to take that action
00:24:04.820 | Before you can prove that it's necessary in order for it to be effective
00:24:11.940 | This
00:24:16.740 | Outbreak this pandemic
00:24:18.980 | Is proceeding exactly like I always pictured it proceeding
00:24:23.240 | When I've thought about it in years past
00:24:25.860 | It's proceeding in the way that people who warn and talk about these subjects picture it
00:24:32.900 | Have talked about it
00:24:34.900 | It's not a guaranteed death sentence
00:24:37.700 | Again, I don't I feel bad for picking on ebola like this
00:24:42.100 | But I just say it's not ebola. Ebola itself was not a guaranteed death sentence
00:24:45.700 | But it's not ebola
00:24:48.580 | That doesn't make it unimportant. That doesn't make it insignificant
00:24:52.760 | So what am I doing well right now i'm traveling and i'm hoping I can finish my business
00:25:02.180 | And get home. I don't want to be stuck in the united states away from my family
00:25:05.780 | So right now that's my number one concern
00:25:07.860 | and I kind of feel like
00:25:10.500 | I kind of feel like how a lot of travelers felt after 9/11 when all of everything was shut down
00:25:15.460 | I've got backup plans. Okay, how do I get on a boat and go across the ocean and get home if I can't fly?
00:25:21.620 | What happens if if uh country closes their borders?
00:25:24.820 | It's it's kind of an interesting scenario
00:25:27.060 | You're very vulnerable when you're in transit
00:25:29.300 | And I thought about canceling my trip, but I had the trip scheduled for a while and I thought that okay
00:25:33.300 | I'll be able to get in and get out before things get too bad
00:25:35.700 | I was watching it up to the last minute
00:25:37.140 | But just didn't seem like it was just didn't seem like it was quite time to cancel my trip
00:25:42.100 | And I tell you what, I feel like i'm i'm playing with danger that it i've got just a few days
00:25:48.660 | as countries continue to impose more and more travel restrictions, I
00:25:53.380 | I will breathe easier once I get home if I can't get home on an airplane
00:25:57.860 | It will be an interesting
00:25:59.860 | An interesting journey to get home. We'll see what happens
00:26:02.500 | So that's my biggest concern is you're simply getting home to my family and once I get home then
00:26:07.540 | I'm staying put
00:26:10.340 | I have encouraged my wife to go ahead and move towards
00:26:15.060 | Not total like i'm not trying to be
00:26:18.980 | like i'm not all the way to total social isolation isolation, but to to pull out of
00:26:26.180 | of unnecessary events
00:26:28.340 | Still figuring out if that's warranted watch it day by day
00:26:32.660 | but
00:26:35.220 | but I've gone to that and
00:26:37.220 | Basically, I'm going to the point of just trying to encourage family members and such to to to
00:26:44.900 | To distance yourself as much as possible
00:26:49.140 | I think that I don't quite think we're to the point of
00:26:54.900 | You know not shopping at all
00:26:56.900 | But we get most of our vegetables from a farmer's market. So i'll continue to go to the farmer's market
00:27:02.740 | That's a very low risk place. It's outdoors. It's not a lot of people
00:27:06.180 | So, you know most of our shopping is kind of in a in a strange circumstance compared to how most people shop
00:27:13.140 | We don't go to big have a lot of big stores and things like that
00:27:16.740 | So I think those things are relatively low risk and once again, I feel like
00:27:23.380 | Once again, I feel like just a little bit more time is needed. I think the next couple of weeks are going to make a big difference
00:27:28.900 | Although I expect this to go on for months. I think the next couple of weeks are going to make a big difference
00:27:34.420 | I
00:27:36.260 | hate
00:27:37.460 | the fact that these kinds of actions that
00:27:40.260 | I'm engaging in and that i'm encouraging you to engage in
00:27:43.940 | I hate that there is a major economic stress associated with it
00:27:50.180 | Right. I don't like to think about what would happen to the income of my farmers where I buy food
00:27:56.100 | If I don't come and buy food from them, I want to support them. I want them to get the money
00:28:01.300 | I want to have the good food. I don't want to eat rice and beans and flour
00:28:04.420 | But
00:28:07.140 | It seems prudent and I don't like the fact that these actions are almost guaranteed to cause economic hardship for
00:28:13.540 | for all of us
00:28:15.700 | With the constant ripple effect across the economy
00:28:19.060 | But it does seem prudent at this point in time
00:28:21.940 | This is simply not just the flu
00:28:26.180 | It's not just the flu
00:28:29.220 | People who say it's just the flu do not understand the multiplicative effects
00:28:35.240 | of a viral infection
00:28:38.020 | They don't understand compounding. I posted online last night on twitter
00:28:41.380 | That the next couple of weeks are going to be your living lesson in the power of compound interest
00:28:48.020 | I think that's true
00:28:50.020 | And if you remember about compounding very early in the compounding chart, it seems like there's not a lot happening
00:28:55.380 | Well, the same thing is happening with a viral infection
00:28:57.800 | It seems like a lot of overreaction to the actual numbers, right? Doesn't it feel that way?
00:29:04.180 | You look around and universities are canceling classes. Schools are canceling classes
00:29:09.140 | Companies are stopping people coming together. It seems like an overreaction
00:29:16.420 | Unless you understand the compounding effects of a viral infection
00:29:20.820 | And the only way to get ahead of a viral infection is to overreact early
00:29:26.980 | I say it with emphasis
00:29:31.380 | Because even though i'm entirely intellectually convinced of that and even though i've been entirely intellectually convinced of that for years
00:29:38.740 | It is still hard to say that in public
00:29:43.780 | It's still hard for me to tell that to you because i'm scared of being wrong and i'm scared of being painted as a fear-monger
00:29:50.680 | Normalcy bias is a powerful thing
00:30:00.020 | normalcy bias is
00:30:02.740 | The inability to think that things could change drastically
00:30:07.860 | It's basically the idea that you blot out important information because you think everything's going to be fine
00:30:14.420 | And you can see this in a natural disaster
00:30:16.820 | There's a natural disaster heading for you a forest fire heading for you, but you think oh, it'll probably stop
00:30:21.620 | It'll probably go away
00:30:24.500 | The volcano is spitting ash. Oh, it'll probably won't blow up
00:30:27.780 | The floods are coming. Well, it probably won't be so bad. We've lived in this house for a long time. It's been okay before
00:30:33.860 | That's normalcy bias wanting to see things continue and we all have it and one of the things that the reason why i'm recording this
00:30:41.140 | again
00:30:42.100 | This morning after just talking about this last night saying, okay, that's it. I'm done with covid 19
00:30:46.500 | I'm going to talk about other stuff is that I see in myself
00:30:49.940 | How strong that normalcy bias is?
00:30:53.300 | I'm, so committed to not wanting to disrupt things
00:30:57.620 | That even though everything that I see around is proceeding apace
00:31:03.380 | As i've thought it would be for a bad event
00:31:06.340 | I'm, so
00:31:09.440 | Emotionally committed
00:31:11.300 | To not wanting to disrupt my family not running to disrupt our normal life
00:31:15.780 | Not wanting to disrupt my business not wanting to face those risks
00:31:19.300 | That I don't want to take the public
00:31:22.580 | positions and I don't want to take the
00:31:25.780 | The personal changes necessary for it
00:31:31.460 | But I think that it is warranted
00:31:33.460 | That's my advice
00:31:41.540 | I hope that this was the
00:31:43.540 | Hope that my tone is coming through
00:31:46.100 | Panic is not the right word
00:31:48.980 | Strong response and strong reaction is
00:31:51.540 | I have the luxury of
00:31:56.260 | I have the luxury of
00:32:00.100 | having
00:32:02.100 | A simpler lifestyle than a lot of people back to the kind of the freedom of lifestyle
00:32:06.340 | I work from home. My wife works from home
00:32:10.500 | Our children work from home. And so for us that question of social isolation is much easier
00:32:17.140 | Than if I worked outside of the home, my wife worked outside of the home and the children were outside of the home
00:32:22.820 | I recognize
00:32:25.620 | How big of a decision it is to pull your children out of school
00:32:29.540 | I recognize how disruptive that is to the family. I recognize how disruptive that is to to your ability to work
00:32:36.340 | I recognize how disruptive that can be to your finances
00:32:40.260 | There are no easy solutions to this
00:32:43.940 | The easy solutions are gone
00:32:48.180 | If you're going to be put into financial
00:32:51.140 | distress
00:32:53.220 | Because you don't go to work for a few weeks
00:32:55.220 | It's too late
00:32:58.340 | The time to solve that financial distress from you're going not going to work for a few weeks was a few years ago
00:33:04.100 | Right the time to save a year's worth of living expenses was over the past years
00:33:10.420 | It's too late
00:33:13.940 | Just like it's too late to protect your if you are invested in mainstream stocks. It's too late to protect your portfolio from losses
00:33:20.740 | If you if you just stayed invested the whole time
00:33:24.100 | Stayed invested the whole time the time to make your plan for what you were going to do in a market downturn was when the
00:33:29.220 | market was good
00:33:31.300 | So if you're going to suffer pain
00:33:33.700 | And financial shortfalls because you don't have a plan for who's going to care for your children if you pull them out of school
00:33:39.780 | It's too late
00:33:41.700 | I'm, sorry
00:33:43.700 | But it's too late
00:33:48.340 | Now even though it's too late what I mean is it's not too late to act but it's too late to have a smooth ride
00:33:54.500 | It's not too late to
00:33:56.500 | For you to respond, but it's too late for it to be easy
00:33:59.620 | When I've thought about talked about taught about
00:34:02.980 | disaster preparedness
00:34:05.620 | One of the basic themes that I have emphasized is if you prepare in advance
00:34:10.820 | The disaster that is so stressful for many other people
00:34:14.420 | Can be much smoother and more comfortable for you
00:34:18.100 | In most disasters most people survive
00:34:24.020 | Human beings are resilient human beings are creative
00:34:27.140 | Human beings are wonderful problem solvers
00:34:30.020 | And when when the pressure is on human beings generally figure out a way to solve their problems
00:34:36.500 | That you're going to solve your problem. You're unlikely to die in the
00:34:41.700 | Coronavirus you're unlikely to to have all the members of your family die
00:34:46.740 | But if you didn't prepare
00:34:50.420 | It might still be a little bit of time. But if you didn't prepare
00:34:53.220 | You're unlikely to be able to go through it comfortably
00:34:57.000 | And and that's what i'm talking about so what i'm saying is if you are a dual income household
00:35:05.060 | And you don't have any money saved. It's too late for it to be comfortable
00:35:09.640 | for you
00:35:12.340 | So now you're going to have to make some hard decisions
00:35:16.500 | Now you're going to have to figure out what do we do from here what precautions do we take
00:35:20.980 | Who's going to care for the children and you're going to have to figure out in your situation how to meet your needs
00:35:28.340 | and
00:35:30.100 | um
00:35:31.220 | And do it in a reasonable way
00:35:33.220 | Again, I hope that my intent is coming through not to berate you but to point out to you
00:35:39.140 | That the time to go shopping for toilet paper is not when the shelves are empty of toilet paper
00:35:45.060 | It's too late
00:35:47.060 | It's too late by the way
00:35:51.300 | on that
00:35:53.300 | If you're worried about toilet paper number one
00:35:55.460 | Um toilet paper has been cheap for a very long time
00:35:59.380 | And you were foolish
00:36:02.100 | For not stocking up
00:36:04.100 | There is no reason why unless you're physically living in an rv there's no reason why
00:36:13.380 | You should not have stocked up on toilet paper
00:36:15.540 | In the past
00:36:19.380 | If you are in a situation where the shelves are stripped clean of toilet paper
00:36:24.740 | And you're worried because you have four rolls at home
00:36:27.860 | you
00:36:29.860 | Have been behaving
00:36:31.600 | foolishly
00:36:33.060 | And you need to take responsibility for the foolishness of your actions
00:36:36.740 | Number two
00:36:43.540 | You don't need to pay huge amounts of money for it
00:36:45.860 | Just go and ask your neighbors if they have some toilet paper and see if anybody has anything to share with you or ask a family
00:36:51.060 | member
00:36:52.020 | The toilet paper shortage is not an not going to be a forever thing
00:36:55.300 | There I don't really think there's any reason why toilet paper has to be
00:36:59.780 | a major shortage
00:37:02.980 | Number three
00:37:05.220 | one of the best
00:37:06.500 | Antidotes for one of the best
00:37:08.500 | Replacements for toilet paper is something like baby wipes
00:37:12.420 | Only a
00:37:14.420 | Heathen philistine would use toilet paper in 2020 anyway
00:37:17.940 | At the risk of this being an unusual topic for a financial show
00:37:21.860 | I'm, not a heathen philistine and you shouldn't be either
00:37:25.380 | Baby wipes or some sort of wet wipe is a far
00:37:30.020 | better solution
00:37:32.580 | Than dry toilet paper for your toilet paper needs
00:37:35.940 | So I suggest that to you so look around for things like baby wipes and see if those are available
00:37:40.900 | Now it's my understanding that those are probably in shorter supply, but you might be able to find those
00:37:45.380 | so
00:37:47.140 | If you have children, maybe this is something but one of the things that i've always done is we keep some toilet paper
00:37:51.460 | but I always keep significant amounts of
00:37:53.860 | significant amounts of
00:37:56.980 | Baby wipes around let's keep a couple extra boxes of baby wipes and baby wipes last for a very long time
00:38:03.300 | Because unlike toilet paper where you go through huge amounts of it
00:38:06.980 | Very quickly you go through a very small number of those
00:38:09.780 | So perhaps that could be helpful for you
00:38:11.780 | If you can find that or if you can use baby wipes a small package of baby wipes will last you a lot longer than
00:38:16.100 | a bunch of rolls of toilet paper
00:38:18.180 | Number, uh, I can't remember what number next
00:38:20.420 | You can learn how to conserve and to use more modest amounts of materials
00:38:26.360 | When times when there are shortages one of the things that you can learn is just how well how much you can do with a little
00:38:33.220 | Bit and this is a really useful exercise for you to go through
00:38:36.740 | for example
00:38:39.780 | In the united states, we waste huge amounts of water all around the world. We waste huge amounts of water
00:38:44.420 | and
00:38:46.100 | It's it's only when you go into a situation where you're really conserving something
00:38:50.260 | Conserving money conserving water, etc. When you realize how much you actually don't need
00:38:56.500 | With my family at the time it was five our record is when we were rving
00:39:01.940 | We had a 51 gallon water tank in our rv and we stretched that 51 gallon water tank for
00:39:07.700 | Either five or six days
00:39:10.580 | Now some places in the world to do far less
00:39:12.820 | But you can learn how to be frugal. You can learn how to do more with less that can be a good skill for you to learn
00:39:20.740 | next
00:39:23.380 | It is entirely sanitary
00:39:26.260 | And workable for you if push comes to shove for you to use some sort of cloth
00:39:31.780 | as compared to paper toilet paper
00:39:34.900 | We've done cloth diapering for years used to gross me out the idea of it before I had children grossed me out
00:39:40.660 | I thought cloth diapers. Why wouldn't you just throw all the the crap away, right? But
00:39:44.900 | Um, then I became we we uh, we started cloth diapering and I realized it's not a big deal
00:39:50.100 | It's not a big deal and I often talked to my wife. I was like, you know one of these days
00:39:54.580 | We should just stop buying toilet paper, you know, dr. Mr. Frugal. It doesn't cost much but i'm like when you're already washing
00:39:59.940 | Reusable diapers and what we've done for years is also my wife would make reusable wipes to use as well
00:40:06.740 | just a flannel cloth and
00:40:09.380 | a flannel cloth
00:40:11.140 | That you wet with water before doing it. It just before using it. It just gives you a better result
00:40:15.460 | It's better than dealing with the paper products
00:40:17.540 | cloth diapers are objectively better
00:40:21.140 | Than disposable diapers the thing that we've changed on that and I say that as a parent of four children
00:40:26.820 | um, the thing that we've changed our minds on is when we travel we use disposable diapers and my wife hates them and
00:40:34.180 | The reason is they always leak
00:40:36.260 | There you're forever having a diaper blowout
00:40:38.580 | Whereas with cloth diapers, I don't want to say never but almost never
00:40:43.780 | Do you have a diaper blowout? They're just they work better. They're more functional and yes, they require a different system
00:40:50.660 | But they work better the same thing with with fabric wipes. I get so annoyed using disposable wipes to clean my baby's bottom
00:40:58.100 | Because it falls apart. Whereas a cloth wipe doesn't
00:41:01.620 | You have in your house a hot water supply
00:41:05.460 | you have in your house
00:41:08.180 | a dryer
00:41:10.020 | And you should have in your house a clothesline. So if you need to
00:41:14.660 | Just simply take some old rags some old shirts cut them into squares
00:41:20.180 | They probably don't need to be hemmed but hem them if you can
00:41:22.260 | And use fabric cloths and there are tons of people who do it use your washing machine hot water
00:41:28.420 | Use your dryer if necessary heat hang them out in the sun the uv light and they're entirely fine and entirely sanitary
00:41:35.400 | um use
00:41:37.780 | You can have all the just go and read what the cloth diapers learn with the types of soaps to use etc
00:41:42.340 | And you're good to go. So you need to develop
00:41:45.300 | It's a kind of a weird topic to be talking about but this is the type of skill that you need to develop
00:41:50.500 | in the coming days
00:41:52.820 | The skill of creative thinking and creative problem solving is a skill that you need to develop
00:41:58.260 | If you already if you don't have it
00:42:00.740 | Now i'm not trying to convince you. I we don't use reusable toilet cloths in our house. I've thought about it
00:42:08.180 | Um, I don't think it would be gross
00:42:11.540 | But we just haven't chosen to do it just like I we haven't you know, we don't do um
00:42:16.580 | Human, you know human or composting
00:42:19.860 | We don't do I don't do that
00:42:23.300 | But not because I don't think I could do it
00:42:25.700 | And I know about how to do it. I know how to do it safely in case I ever need to do it
00:42:30.580 | I'm teaching the live preparedness class and it was delayed for a couple of days
00:42:34.900 | But uh in the next class we're going to be talking about sanitation
00:42:38.500 | And one of the most important things that you need to think about is sanitation because in a real
00:42:43.220 | What i'll call a grid down emergency if you understand the term meaning that there's a breakdown of
00:42:48.660 | of services
00:42:51.460 | And just to be clear, I don't think that the flu pandemic is going to cause that I don't think it will
00:42:57.300 | I don't think that it
00:43:00.500 | I don't think that the flu pandemic is going to cause the electricity to go off the water to go off, etc
00:43:08.340 | Could it?
00:43:09.460 | Yes
00:43:10.580 | It could
00:43:12.100 | But I don't think that this particular version of the flu
00:43:14.900 | Is going to do that now if this version mutates
00:43:18.820 | Uh becomes more deadly it could result in that or there could be some other compounding effect
00:43:24.260 | If there is another disaster that's compounded by a flu
00:43:28.020 | Then of course it could but I don't currently think that's going to happen
00:43:31.860 | But in a grid down emergency your number one thing is got to or one of your highest priorities has to be sanitation
00:43:37.860 | How are you going to dispose of the unsanitary waste of your household?
00:43:41.800 | If you're used to just simply taking all your trash and putting it in a trash bag and putting the trash bag out by the curb
00:43:47.380 | What do you do with that trash when they're no longer collecting trash by the curb?
00:43:51.380 | There is a major risk right now
00:43:54.580 | To sanitation workers of the virus not garbage workers, but people working in the sewer system
00:44:01.300 | For example, it's my understanding that the data indicates that this particular flu virus
00:44:07.300 | Is found in fecal matter
00:44:09.300 | Possibly also urine but fecal matter. This is one of the reasons why in the current scenario public restrooms are
00:44:14.980 | dangerous places for you to be
00:44:17.860 | In a public restroom anytime a toilet flushes. There is some amount of fecal spray some of the the substance of
00:44:26.020 | Feces that get sprayed around in a restroom now
00:44:29.540 | Usually that's fairly small it's higher in commercial restrooms where there's a fast flush versus the flush that you're familiar with at home
00:44:37.060 | but the virus is found in feces and so this
00:44:41.700 | Legitimately poses a threat right now to people who work in water filled water
00:44:47.140 | What's it called water treatments facilities and things like that?
00:44:50.020 | Because if a large number of people are infected with the virus their feces are carrying that virus and this airborne
00:44:56.900 | The airborne risk is significant to people who are working in wastewater treatment plants like that right now
00:45:04.420 | so
00:45:06.980 | public
00:45:08.420 | Restrooms as far as practice public restrooms are dangerous places for you to be you need to minimize your time in public restrooms at the moment
00:45:14.900 | um because of of this, um
00:45:18.740 | Again, the virus is in feces and you have fecal spray where there are
00:45:24.100 | Toilets being flushed so
00:45:27.620 | When you think about the problem, you need to have a plan in your family for how you would handle your family sanitation
00:45:34.340 | What would you do if your garbage were no longer being picked up? How would you dispose of the garbage?
00:45:39.140 | What would you do if your toilet's no longer flush? How will you dispose of your human waste?
00:45:45.860 | What's your plan? How will you keep your drinking water clean?
00:45:49.380 | If you and all of your neighbors are trying to figure out how to dispose of your human waste without the standard sewer systems
00:45:55.700 | that we're engaged in
00:45:58.740 | I don't think this virus is going to lead to that level of breakdown
00:46:02.920 | Unless it mutates or unless there's other some other compounding event
00:46:06.980 | I've said it four times. I don't think or that there
00:46:10.740 | But you need to think through circumstances like that
00:46:14.900 | So if you are finding yourself unprepared
00:46:17.640 | And you're freaking out because there's no toilet paper
00:46:20.980 | You have been
00:46:24.400 | short-sighted
00:46:25.940 | You have behaved foolishly by not stockpiling toilet paper
00:46:29.940 | And you are not engaging your creative thinking
00:46:34.020 | Or studying how to solve your problems yet
00:46:36.900 | There are plenty of flannel towels and flannel sheets available at your local Goodwill
00:46:43.960 | So if you're out of toilet paper
00:46:46.900 | Go to your local Goodwill
00:46:49.300 | Buy a flannel sheet
00:46:51.060 | Cut it up into squares
00:46:52.980 | Put a stack of them in your bathroom next to the sink where you can get them wet
00:46:56.980 | Use them for the appropriate business and put aside a canister to collect them and then take them to your washing machine problem solved
00:47:04.180 | Now that's one of the easiest things that you can possibly do
00:47:08.500 | How much harder is it going to be if you face bigger problems than that
00:47:13.700 | This is time to get engaged get in gear get serious
00:47:20.420 | And start working on the logistics of your situation
00:47:22.920 | I hope that you have taken precautions
00:47:27.160 | I hope that you have saved money
00:47:29.940 | I hope that you have stockpiled supplies
00:47:32.360 | I hope that you've done those things for the years
00:47:35.140 | If I have not i've tried to sound the the alarm as strongly as I could over the years
00:47:41.940 | Um, I hope that you've listened if I didn't sound strong enough. I'm, sorry
00:47:46.900 | The reason is just simply it feels weird to always be the guy who's talking about the weird stuff
00:47:51.860 | And I don't like to have that public reputation
00:47:53.940 | But learn from what you see the panic. It's just going to grow and it's going to grow and it's going to grow
00:47:59.300 | Until more data is known and then what I think is going to happen
00:48:02.740 | Is the panic is going to grow people are going to respond
00:48:05.780 | And then what'll happen is it'll start to die down because people will get tired of it
00:48:10.580 | That doesn't mean the risk gets lower people get tired of it and they figure I just got to move on with life
00:48:15.780 | That's what I think is happening in china right now. People are just moving on with life
00:48:18.900 | and
00:48:20.580 | They figured out some ways to potentially contain it
00:48:23.380 | But in other nations, we still got to go through the hard point
00:48:28.260 | Look at china. Look at italy
00:48:31.860 | United states canada
00:48:34.420 | That's what's coming for you
00:48:36.740 | Within the next few weeks
00:48:39.460 | Take it seriously
00:48:41.220 | Don't give into your normalcy bias. I'm fighting mine with all I can
00:48:45.620 | Take the precautions early
00:48:47.620 | The worst case is you miss out on a few weeks of social engagements
00:48:51.400 | I know the cost is higher with work and whatnot. Sorry. That's why you save money. That's why you keep your expenses low, etc
00:48:59.540 | I don't want to cause panic. I want to keep an optimistic tone
00:49:03.540 | But I do want I don't want to
00:49:06.500 | An optimistic tone because I genuinely feel optimistic and i'm committed to looking for opportunities in the midst of disaster
00:49:13.140 | My study of history tells me that there are always opportunities in the midst of disaster
00:49:16.760 | And if this disaster continues for months and months and months
00:49:20.020 | There will be some people who make their fortunes in this time, and I believe that's a psychologically healthy place to be
00:49:27.380 | But don't let that sense of optimism
00:49:30.100 | Cause you not to take practical steps to isolate yourself isolate your family isolate your employees if practical
00:49:38.500 | When the cost is higher and if you run a business where your employees are physical, it's more difficult
00:49:43.060 | You might have to take more risks. There just simply is no way around it to try to maintain for the benefit of your employees
00:49:49.960 | but
00:49:52.500 | Take the steps that you can take today
00:49:54.580 | and move early
00:49:57.220 | Even though it doesn't feel like it that gets necessary because that's what will ultimately protect you
00:50:05.300 | Be back with you soon i'm here to serve you got questions maybe um, I
00:50:09.380 | With my travel and commitments today and whatnot. My schedule is a wreck
00:50:13.780 | But as soon as I can I will maybe i'll try to host a live q a show and we could talk about some of your
00:50:19.060 | questions and feedback
00:50:20.500 | Uh, i'll let you know what those details as soon as I can. Thanks for being here
00:50:24.100 | It's superstar battery month at o'reilly auto parts get up to a 25
00:50:32.180 | Dollar gift card after rebate with the purchase of select superstar batteries
00:50:35.620 | Our professional parts people will test your old battery for free and recommend the right battery for your vehicle for power performance and reliability
00:50:43.800 | Choose superstar batteries only at o'reilly auto parts
00:50:47.640 | Auto parts
00:50:54.020 | (upbeat music)