Good morning radicals. Welcome back to the show today going to talk with you again about the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and some bits of response to to that and the thesis that I want to share with you this morning is simply I don't want you to let my optimistic tone keep you from from taking things seriously and from taking steps of preparation in short my summary statement is it is definitely time to take the coronavirus extremely seriously I think that it is time to engage in proactive social isolation.

I think that it is time to To go to what is Defcon 5? certainly If you really anywhere in the world And we'll talk about that in a moment, but I want to back up now that you know my thesis That's that's that's my point that I want to drive home to you and I went back up and give you just a little bit of preamble last night I recorded the show and that I did kind of a brief overview was talking about the changes and I once again tried to strike an optimistic tone and Then I released the show went to bed.

I was thinking about it during the night as I woke up early this morning I was just considering what I shared with you and I realized that I Have been striking an overly optimistic tone Partly because I am genuinely optimistic But partly also out of simple fear and self-preservation basically, I don't want to be seen as somebody who is Irrationally shouting fire Irrationally shouting the sky is falling etc.

And that's a weighty responsibility and basically it comes down to my own personal pride The pride and the desire to be right and not to be one who shouts unnecessarily about a crisis When you are on record with your words in a public format people will remember what you've said and they will remember Whether you got things right or wrong.

I think back to things like the y2k bug there were many people who saw the major risks of a y2k bug and people Who took y2k seriously recommended people that they said, you know stock up you need to prepare the computers are gonna fail Everything's gonna fall apart, etc.

And they warned warned warned for years and then when the y2k event arrived it was basically a non event Nothing happened basically now that was a heavy load to bear for those people and I Being Being a late teenager. I then watched for years people get laughed at for taking y2k seriously For years, I watched people make fun of the people who bought a pallet of MREs and stored it in the garage for years I watched people Who were in the public space be brought back?

Oh you you told everyone that y2k was gonna be a big deal and look you were wrong And in fact, I have actually asked people why they were wrong. I remember one time Dr. Gary North was on the program and he was a very loud Warner of y2k and I asked him one time I said Do you regret anything?

They gave him the the moniker scary Gary for his intense y2k warnings and I asked him one time. I said do you regret? What you did with regard to y2k and his response and his typical Kurt one sentence way was something akin to I would rather be honestly wrong and I can't say it exactly.

I would rather be honestly wrong and know that I Did my best? Then to be quiet out of fear and base and and feel like I shirked my duty and so that statement even though I've Made it entirely uneloquent The thrust of that statement has stuck with me for the years and I've tried to follow it and just as I woke up this morning I realized I I'm giving into fear of not wanting to to seem like a person who is overly paranoid overly obsessed overly strong Because with the psychology of the thing if I'm if I'm wrong, let's say that I give dire warnings about kovat 19 and I'm wrong having watched what happened in y2k I Everyone remembers it it gets rubbed all over the face if I do a search for my name online There's a forum somewhere.

This is what Joshua sheet said this crazy thing But but he was so stupid and then that forever is linked to me I go to apply for a job interview in 20 years and forever all of that is there Just like to this day you can do a search for I don't know Gary North y2k And you'll find all these articles talking about how wrong he was Whereas if I'm cautious in my Speech if I'm fine if I keep my tongue bridled and don't say anything, you know I'm not I'm not the nail that sticks up then and everybody is wrong.

At least I don't get singled out and I can kind of sit back and and blend in with the crowd but I care more about being honest and being able to sleep with myself at night and and look myself in the mirror and and Respect the man who I see then I do about being wrong.

And so I want to Try to that's why I'm re-recording what I have just said Today to try to articulate to you The risk of a global flu pandemic I am genuinely more optimistic about the risks of This particular global pandemic Than I was a few months ago because this particular strain of the virus Does not seem to have the highest mortality rate That has previously been feared.

This does not have the mortality rate of The black plague right the plague this does not have the mortality rate of Ebola it does not have that kind of guaranteed death sentence mortality rate That does not mean however That it's not extremely deadly The best data right now seems to indicate that of the people who become infected with coronavirus about 12% of Those who are infected will have severe symptoms and about 5% of the people who are infected Will have critical symptoms and need critical care With some number of those people dying Now we can find reasons to be grateful I shared with you last night I am thankful that children do not seem to be deeply Affected by this disease as the father of four young children.

That's a an incredible Relief to me, but that does not mean that My life cannot be entirely disrupted with elderly people Becoming infected with the disease. I Have parents you have parents. I have one grandmother still alive. She's a hundred and six Now in one way if she she lives in a nursing facility She's a hundred and six if she gets infected With the coronavirus and she dies.

I'll take comfort in the fact that she lived a long life It's hard to expect all that many more years when your grandmother is a hundred and six But that doesn't make it any less important The loss of a grandmother loss of other grandparents in a nursing facility is a very big deal I have parents my wife has parents Great grandparents and so we don't want these people to be infected.

That's a tremendous loss of life And of course elderly people are not the only people who are at risk so even with a Death rate and again, we don't know that the death rate The death rate will not be known until years after the initial waves of Will not be known with with with a high degree of accuracy Until years after some of the initial waves have passed through and you can take an entire Population where you can study and say here are the antibodies in their blood We know that they were infected and we can see what percentage of those people died but a few percent of death rate is a very significant thing and It is in addition to that.

It's very significant because it can make death rates increase for other things one of the major risks of a Viral outbreak a viral pandemic is it places such a load on the medical system? That the hospitals are full the doctor's offices are full The doctor's offices are full of people who might be infected with coronavirus And what happens is all of the rest of the normal medical conditions that people are generally Suffering from now they now receive poorer care.

Perhaps you have a chainsaw accident and you you Generally, you could get cared for pretty quickly But now the chainsaw is probably a bad example Anything happens and you could have gotten previously care for pretty quickly because you go to the emergency room You could be entered into the emergency room.

You could go to ICU You could have your needs met and there was sufficient capacity in the medical system to care for you But now something has happened. You've had an accident experience some illness heart attack chainsaw accident, whatever the case is but the medical system is so overloaded you wind up waiting longer and longer at the Emergency room the intensive care unit is full of people with pneumonia and they can't care for you so people die maybe I was talking with a client of mine who was sharing with me some inside information from some friends of his who are in the medical community and the first responder community and he was they were talking about how one of the biggest concerns is if the If the virus starts to spread within the homeless community.

Well that can Completely overwhelm all of the normal first responders who have to respond Because there's not no other real medical facilities that are available Except that somebody passes out on the street and the cops call the EMTs and EMTs come to come and help that person So picture your city has 10 ambulances operating at any specific time, but it also has a large homeless population But five of those ambulances are out taking care of homeless people who are passed out on the street due to coronavirus Infections and serious illness because they often have other medical conditions poor nutrition Alcoholism tobacco use drugs, etc.

And so Then you have a heart attack and somebody calls the ambulance and the ambulance is delayed in coming So so there's the direct medical risk of the virus and then there's the secondary medical risk of an overloaded overtaxed medical system coming in from From because everyone's taking care of the virus.

There are other risks as well Hospitals are famous places for you to get infections They work really hard and they try really hard, but I'm convinced that hospitals are dangerous and then data indicates that out They're less dangerous. If you're having a severe heart attack, they're less dangerous If your leg just got chopped off or you had a car accident They're less dangerous than staying on the side of the road But they're actually really dangerous places because there's lots of sick and infectious people there And so if your hospital is filled with sick and infectious people and you go in for something else now there's a good chance that that becomes a center for you to for you to Become ill or medical errors, right?

Medical errors are a leading cause of death in the United States Obviously everybody involved in the medical system would like to bring that number down But it's hard to be perfect all the time But it's a lot harder to be perfect and to get everything right when you're personally stressed as a medical provider You're overworked.

You're working long hours The hallways are full of sick people that you're trying to treat - you're worried about having enough masks to put on It's just a nightmare scenario that goes on and on and on and on and on so Back to my thesis what I'm trying to impress upon you.

I'm genuinely optimistic because Children are not dying as much as previously was feared and the death rate was not previously what it was feared and For me personally, I have the luxury of being able to largely minimize and eliminate Almost any social contact. That's a real blessing. That's a real luxury.

I Also I'm gonna use the word panicked because I think it implies What I want to imply without the actual Denotation of the word being true. I didn't panic but I panicked back in January. I didn't panic. I didn't freak out I responded. I mean I Responded back in January heavily when I started to see it I tried to maintain a lifestyle of preparedness But I don't have a bunker filled with three years worth of food largely because of traveling If I did if I was settled in one place and I had a farm I would have a bunker with three years worth of food in it but I don't and I have not been convinced that I should give up the Work that I'm doing in traveling in order to go and buy a farm with a bunker thought about it haven't done it So back in January, I saw the risk emerging and I said this is serious.

I went stocked up on food stocked up on medical supplies Etc. Then in February, I saw it getting worse and I thought this is really serious And I went and I bought even more food and I bought more medical supplies. I bought rehydration things vitamins increased the vitamin dosages for my family to try to Know whether it works or not, but try to build immune systems tried to make sure I mean we already eat, you know tons of of a diverse diet, but I made sure again, we're getting lots of nutrients lots of Vitamins to to to make sure that we're really healthy.

I Tried to increase my hand-washing You just had trying to teach my children because children are just awful at washing hands and you you go over it again and again They don't do it, but try to teach them the the medical hand-washing techniques to my children. So look, you know children Had my wife do it again.

Well, I've been away the last few days like listen here give them this video Here's this that we're trying to get our two-year-old to do to learn how to wash hands and interlace the fingers and rotate them around and do the thumbs and so I you know We'll see how it's gone Because they remember that stuff and then they you say go wash hands and they all race in there and in two and a half Seconds later, they're back at the table with soaking wet hands.

You didn't do it I'm sure every parent knows the the struggle But for me, I freaked out I responded and Panic and freak out are not good words. I Responded vigorously back in January in February so that by the time February got around I felt pretty confident I felt like okay.

I've done about all I can do for a flu pandemic I have the supplies that I need to just simply stay at home I have enough food that I can stay at home for months I have a property that my family and I we can happily just stay at home for months I have enough money that I can just simply stay at home for months if my business implodes I have years worth of expenses saved.

I can just simply figure it out. I can start another business I can get another job. I can figure it out, but I'm optimistic that my business won't implode. I have big plans I plan to make way more money this year than I did last year. No matter what like that's the goal, but I'm prepared.

I could stay at home. I could isolate my family. I did everything I could think of to Protect against medical needs. So again, I tried to boost my family's immune systems. I bought some Made sure that we're stocked up on medications to bring down a fever Just basic care that I felt I could do at home.

I bought a What's that stuff the Pedialyte or PediAssure kind of thing I bought some of those drinks and things that are could be used for rehydration I figured that if I have a child who's really sick in addition to other things that this could be a helpful source of nutrients I bought an oxygen concentrator I don't know whether that would work or not But in my thinking about what can I do if there's an overloaded medical system?

And I've got a sick child or I'm sick or my wife is sick What can I do and it just seemed like an oxygen concentrator would be the best thing I could do I hope it was a waste of money. I hope I never need to use it, but I bought one I stocked up on masks.

I stocked up on bleach. I got gallons of bleach I don't have a lot of like plastic sheeting to create a quarantine room, but I do have a plan for How I would quarantine a family member if it got sick. I don't honestly think we could do that It's one thing if I had a house full of adults that I could quarantine an adult in another room But I don't honestly see how we could actually do a family quarantine of a child and stick a child in a room and say You know, you're locked off here in this quarantine room.

I don't think that's practical So i've done everything that I think I could do as far as I can tell You know have lots of water stored. I have water filters And I live in a place where there's tremendous access to food Um, uh all my you know, I've got food on all sides And so i'm not i'm not that worried about it And so for me doing that back in january and february I felt like I was Overreacting because no one else was doing anything.

I felt that was overreacting But then I felt well prepared and I thought okay i've done everything so talked with my wife We went over our list. I said i've done everything that we can think of. Let's just go forward now since that time With the lower death rate.

I felt that it was a real relief Like okay, it's not the black plague, right? It's not the it's not it doesn't have 50 mortality rate so I felt a real sense of relief and i've also felt a relief as i've watched the data improve in china and i've seen That some of the things that they've been able to do to beat things to beat to beat it now If the data is real, right?

That's always the question but i'm going to for now assume that it is I think what they're doing is working The extreme measures that they did were are working um That's what was going on in my psychology That said It's time to take it even more seriously Here is what I currently believe is happening all around the world There are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people who are infected who are spreading the infection And who simply don't realize it who are just starting to realize it But we're early in the reporting of the actual cases There's the lag between when somebody is infected and infectious And when they actually experience symptoms And then there's a lag as to when they actually experience symptoms Versus when they actually seek medical care receive some kind of test and are counted so It feels very hard To respond early.

It's one thing for it was one thing for me to respond and stock up back in january and february did that but I did it rationally and I thought this is money that if I waste the money, okay I don't like to waste money, but i'll feel good Right.

The biggest possible waste of money was I bought an oxygen concentrator spent 400 But okay if I waste this i'll keep it around it might save somebody's life at some point And if nothing else I can give it to an elderly neighbor or whatnot But at least I knew the price tag But now we're at a point where you have to make lifestyle decisions And I think that the data and the evidence indicates that this is the time to engage in significant social isolation Now, I know that's harder for some people than others, but this is the time to do it If we wait Until the evidence is obvious that it's necessary there's a very good chance that it's too late That's why this is so hard In all the comments i've done on flu pandemics i've said and I've I've believed for years a a global viral outbreak is to me the worst Possible disaster that's practiced really that I can see an asteroid.

Okay, whatever Um, I can't do much about an asteroid But of the of the things that has happened again and again throughout history a global flu outbreak or global viral infectious outbreak Is one of the worst things that can happen and for many reasons previously discussed But one reason is it's so slow moving and you can't be sure of what's necessary If there were a declaration of war From your neighboring country on your country, you would know that it's necessary for you to take action The news reports could show the tanks massing at the border If there were a nuclear explosion, you would know that that happened and you would know that your concern is warranted But right now everything looks totally normal As I record this episode i'm looking out the window of my hotel there are deer grazing in the woods there are Businessmen, there's a businessman getting in his car going about his day.

There's a highway filled with cars Life looks normal outside Everything looks normal and yet we know There is a deadly little killer and millions of little cells that are deadly little killers Spreading all around and so you wonder what's too much and what's not Went down to breakfast this morning in the hotel Guy there coughing.

Oh, I stayed 15 feet away. But is that enough? Right. Did he cough on the the silverware tray? I just washed my hands. Did I wash my hands again? It's maddening It's maddening because if you're going to take the the full measures It just causes disruptions to your lifestyle So I don't want you to think that my optimistic tone Implies that you should not take things seriously It feels weird right now to be the person who says all right, that's it.

I'm not gonna go to this event It feels weird. It feels like an overreaction And I hope that it is an overreaction. I hope that it is But you've got to be careful But you've got to take that action Before you can prove that it's necessary in order for it to be effective This Outbreak this pandemic Is proceeding exactly like I always pictured it proceeding When I've thought about it in years past It's proceeding in the way that people who warn and talk about these subjects picture it Have talked about it It's not a guaranteed death sentence Again, I don't I feel bad for picking on ebola like this But I just say it's not ebola.

Ebola itself was not a guaranteed death sentence But it's not ebola That doesn't make it unimportant. That doesn't make it insignificant So what am I doing well right now i'm traveling and i'm hoping I can finish my business And get home. I don't want to be stuck in the united states away from my family So right now that's my number one concern and I kind of feel like I kind of feel like how a lot of travelers felt after 9/11 when all of everything was shut down I've got backup plans.

Okay, how do I get on a boat and go across the ocean and get home if I can't fly? What happens if if uh country closes their borders? It's it's kind of an interesting scenario You're very vulnerable when you're in transit And I thought about canceling my trip, but I had the trip scheduled for a while and I thought that okay I'll be able to get in and get out before things get too bad I was watching it up to the last minute But just didn't seem like it was just didn't seem like it was quite time to cancel my trip And I tell you what, I feel like i'm i'm playing with danger that it i've got just a few days as countries continue to impose more and more travel restrictions, I I will breathe easier once I get home if I can't get home on an airplane It will be an interesting An interesting journey to get home.

We'll see what happens So that's my biggest concern is you're simply getting home to my family and once I get home then I'm staying put I have encouraged my wife to go ahead and move towards Not total like i'm not trying to be like i'm not all the way to total social isolation isolation, but to to pull out of of unnecessary events Still figuring out if that's warranted watch it day by day but but I've gone to that and Basically, I'm going to the point of just trying to encourage family members and such to to to To distance yourself as much as possible I think that I don't quite think we're to the point of You know not shopping at all But we get most of our vegetables from a farmer's market.

So i'll continue to go to the farmer's market That's a very low risk place. It's outdoors. It's not a lot of people So, you know most of our shopping is kind of in a in a strange circumstance compared to how most people shop We don't go to big have a lot of big stores and things like that So I think those things are relatively low risk and once again, I feel like Once again, I feel like just a little bit more time is needed.

I think the next couple of weeks are going to make a big difference Although I expect this to go on for months. I think the next couple of weeks are going to make a big difference I hate the fact that these kinds of actions that I'm engaging in and that i'm encouraging you to engage in I hate that there is a major economic stress associated with it Right.

I don't like to think about what would happen to the income of my farmers where I buy food If I don't come and buy food from them, I want to support them. I want them to get the money I want to have the good food. I don't want to eat rice and beans and flour But It seems prudent and I don't like the fact that these actions are almost guaranteed to cause economic hardship for for all of us With the constant ripple effect across the economy But it does seem prudent at this point in time This is simply not just the flu It's not just the flu People who say it's just the flu do not understand the multiplicative effects of a viral infection They don't understand compounding.

I posted online last night on twitter That the next couple of weeks are going to be your living lesson in the power of compound interest I think that's true And if you remember about compounding very early in the compounding chart, it seems like there's not a lot happening Well, the same thing is happening with a viral infection It seems like a lot of overreaction to the actual numbers, right?

Doesn't it feel that way? You look around and universities are canceling classes. Schools are canceling classes Companies are stopping people coming together. It seems like an overreaction Unless you understand the compounding effects of a viral infection And the only way to get ahead of a viral infection is to overreact early I say it with emphasis Because even though i'm entirely intellectually convinced of that and even though i've been entirely intellectually convinced of that for years It is still hard to say that in public It's still hard for me to tell that to you because i'm scared of being wrong and i'm scared of being painted as a fear-monger Normalcy bias is a powerful thing normalcy bias is The inability to think that things could change drastically It's basically the idea that you blot out important information because you think everything's going to be fine And you can see this in a natural disaster There's a natural disaster heading for you a forest fire heading for you, but you think oh, it'll probably stop It'll probably go away The volcano is spitting ash.

Oh, it'll probably won't blow up The floods are coming. Well, it probably won't be so bad. We've lived in this house for a long time. It's been okay before That's normalcy bias wanting to see things continue and we all have it and one of the things that the reason why i'm recording this again This morning after just talking about this last night saying, okay, that's it.

I'm done with covid 19 I'm going to talk about other stuff is that I see in myself How strong that normalcy bias is? I'm, so committed to not wanting to disrupt things That even though everything that I see around is proceeding apace As i've thought it would be for a bad event I'm, so Emotionally committed To not wanting to disrupt my family not running to disrupt our normal life Not wanting to disrupt my business not wanting to face those risks That I don't want to take the public positions and I don't want to take the The personal changes necessary for it But I think that it is warranted That's my advice I hope that this was the Hope that my tone is coming through Panic is not the right word Strong response and strong reaction is I have the luxury of I have the luxury of having A simpler lifestyle than a lot of people back to the kind of the freedom of lifestyle I work from home.

My wife works from home Our children work from home. And so for us that question of social isolation is much easier Than if I worked outside of the home, my wife worked outside of the home and the children were outside of the home I recognize How big of a decision it is to pull your children out of school I recognize how disruptive that is to the family.

I recognize how disruptive that is to to your ability to work I recognize how disruptive that can be to your finances There are no easy solutions to this The easy solutions are gone If you're going to be put into financial distress Because you don't go to work for a few weeks It's too late The time to solve that financial distress from you're going not going to work for a few weeks was a few years ago Right the time to save a year's worth of living expenses was over the past years It's too late Just like it's too late to protect your if you are invested in mainstream stocks.

It's too late to protect your portfolio from losses If you if you just stayed invested the whole time Stayed invested the whole time the time to make your plan for what you were going to do in a market downturn was when the market was good So if you're going to suffer pain And financial shortfalls because you don't have a plan for who's going to care for your children if you pull them out of school It's too late I'm, sorry But it's too late Now even though it's too late what I mean is it's not too late to act but it's too late to have a smooth ride It's not too late to For you to respond, but it's too late for it to be easy When I've thought about talked about taught about disaster preparedness One of the basic themes that I have emphasized is if you prepare in advance The disaster that is so stressful for many other people Can be much smoother and more comfortable for you In most disasters most people survive Human beings are resilient human beings are creative Human beings are wonderful problem solvers And when when the pressure is on human beings generally figure out a way to solve their problems That you're going to solve your problem.

You're unlikely to die in the Coronavirus you're unlikely to to have all the members of your family die But if you didn't prepare It might still be a little bit of time. But if you didn't prepare You're unlikely to be able to go through it comfortably And and that's what i'm talking about so what i'm saying is if you are a dual income household And you don't have any money saved.

It's too late for it to be comfortable for you So now you're going to have to make some hard decisions Now you're going to have to figure out what do we do from here what precautions do we take Who's going to care for the children and you're going to have to figure out in your situation how to meet your needs and um And do it in a reasonable way Again, I hope that my intent is coming through not to berate you but to point out to you That the time to go shopping for toilet paper is not when the shelves are empty of toilet paper It's too late It's too late by the way on that If you're worried about toilet paper number one Um toilet paper has been cheap for a very long time And you were foolish For not stocking up There is no reason why unless you're physically living in an rv there's no reason why You should not have stocked up on toilet paper In the past If you are in a situation where the shelves are stripped clean of toilet paper And you're worried because you have four rolls at home you Have been behaving foolishly And you need to take responsibility for the foolishness of your actions Number two You don't need to pay huge amounts of money for it Just go and ask your neighbors if they have some toilet paper and see if anybody has anything to share with you or ask a family member The toilet paper shortage is not an not going to be a forever thing There I don't really think there's any reason why toilet paper has to be a major shortage Number three one of the best Antidotes for one of the best Replacements for toilet paper is something like baby wipes Only a Heathen philistine would use toilet paper in 2020 anyway At the risk of this being an unusual topic for a financial show I'm, not a heathen philistine and you shouldn't be either Baby wipes or some sort of wet wipe is a far better solution Than dry toilet paper for your toilet paper needs So I suggest that to you so look around for things like baby wipes and see if those are available Now it's my understanding that those are probably in shorter supply, but you might be able to find those so If you have children, maybe this is something but one of the things that i've always done is we keep some toilet paper but I always keep significant amounts of significant amounts of Baby wipes around let's keep a couple extra boxes of baby wipes and baby wipes last for a very long time Because unlike toilet paper where you go through huge amounts of it Very quickly you go through a very small number of those So perhaps that could be helpful for you If you can find that or if you can use baby wipes a small package of baby wipes will last you a lot longer than a bunch of rolls of toilet paper Number, uh, I can't remember what number next You can learn how to conserve and to use more modest amounts of materials When times when there are shortages one of the things that you can learn is just how well how much you can do with a little Bit and this is a really useful exercise for you to go through for example In the united states, we waste huge amounts of water all around the world.

We waste huge amounts of water and It's it's only when you go into a situation where you're really conserving something Conserving money conserving water, etc. When you realize how much you actually don't need With my family at the time it was five our record is when we were rving We had a 51 gallon water tank in our rv and we stretched that 51 gallon water tank for Either five or six days Now some places in the world to do far less But you can learn how to be frugal.

You can learn how to do more with less that can be a good skill for you to learn next It is entirely sanitary And workable for you if push comes to shove for you to use some sort of cloth as compared to paper toilet paper We've done cloth diapering for years used to gross me out the idea of it before I had children grossed me out I thought cloth diapers.

Why wouldn't you just throw all the the crap away, right? But Um, then I became we we uh, we started cloth diapering and I realized it's not a big deal It's not a big deal and I often talked to my wife. I was like, you know one of these days We should just stop buying toilet paper, you know, dr.

Mr. Frugal. It doesn't cost much but i'm like when you're already washing Reusable diapers and what we've done for years is also my wife would make reusable wipes to use as well just a flannel cloth and a flannel cloth That you wet with water before doing it. It just before using it.

It just gives you a better result It's better than dealing with the paper products cloth diapers are objectively better Than disposable diapers the thing that we've changed on that and I say that as a parent of four children um, the thing that we've changed our minds on is when we travel we use disposable diapers and my wife hates them and The reason is they always leak There you're forever having a diaper blowout Whereas with cloth diapers, I don't want to say never but almost never Do you have a diaper blowout?

They're just they work better. They're more functional and yes, they require a different system But they work better the same thing with with fabric wipes. I get so annoyed using disposable wipes to clean my baby's bottom Because it falls apart. Whereas a cloth wipe doesn't You have in your house a hot water supply you have in your house a dryer And you should have in your house a clothesline.

So if you need to Just simply take some old rags some old shirts cut them into squares They probably don't need to be hemmed but hem them if you can And use fabric cloths and there are tons of people who do it use your washing machine hot water Use your dryer if necessary heat hang them out in the sun the uv light and they're entirely fine and entirely sanitary um use You can have all the just go and read what the cloth diapers learn with the types of soaps to use etc And you're good to go.

So you need to develop It's a kind of a weird topic to be talking about but this is the type of skill that you need to develop in the coming days The skill of creative thinking and creative problem solving is a skill that you need to develop If you already if you don't have it Now i'm not trying to convince you.

I we don't use reusable toilet cloths in our house. I've thought about it Um, I don't think it would be gross But we just haven't chosen to do it just like I we haven't you know, we don't do um Human, you know human or composting We don't do I don't do that But not because I don't think I could do it And I know about how to do it.

I know how to do it safely in case I ever need to do it I'm teaching the live preparedness class and it was delayed for a couple of days But uh in the next class we're going to be talking about sanitation And one of the most important things that you need to think about is sanitation because in a real What i'll call a grid down emergency if you understand the term meaning that there's a breakdown of of services And just to be clear, I don't think that the flu pandemic is going to cause that I don't think it will I don't think that it I don't think that the flu pandemic is going to cause the electricity to go off the water to go off, etc Could it?

Yes It could But I don't think that this particular version of the flu Is going to do that now if this version mutates Uh becomes more deadly it could result in that or there could be some other compounding effect If there is another disaster that's compounded by a flu Then of course it could but I don't currently think that's going to happen But in a grid down emergency your number one thing is got to or one of your highest priorities has to be sanitation How are you going to dispose of the unsanitary waste of your household?

If you're used to just simply taking all your trash and putting it in a trash bag and putting the trash bag out by the curb What do you do with that trash when they're no longer collecting trash by the curb? There is a major risk right now To sanitation workers of the virus not garbage workers, but people working in the sewer system For example, it's my understanding that the data indicates that this particular flu virus Is found in fecal matter Possibly also urine but fecal matter.

This is one of the reasons why in the current scenario public restrooms are dangerous places for you to be In a public restroom anytime a toilet flushes. There is some amount of fecal spray some of the the substance of Feces that get sprayed around in a restroom now Usually that's fairly small it's higher in commercial restrooms where there's a fast flush versus the flush that you're familiar with at home but the virus is found in feces and so this Legitimately poses a threat right now to people who work in water filled water What's it called water treatments facilities and things like that?

Because if a large number of people are infected with the virus their feces are carrying that virus and this airborne The airborne risk is significant to people who are working in wastewater treatment plants like that right now so public Restrooms as far as practice public restrooms are dangerous places for you to be you need to minimize your time in public restrooms at the moment um because of of this, um Again, the virus is in feces and you have fecal spray where there are Toilets being flushed so When you think about the problem, you need to have a plan in your family for how you would handle your family sanitation What would you do if your garbage were no longer being picked up?

How would you dispose of the garbage? What would you do if your toilet's no longer flush? How will you dispose of your human waste? What's your plan? How will you keep your drinking water clean? If you and all of your neighbors are trying to figure out how to dispose of your human waste without the standard sewer systems that we're engaged in I don't think this virus is going to lead to that level of breakdown Unless it mutates or unless there's other some other compounding event I've said it four times.

I don't think or that there But you need to think through circumstances like that So if you are finding yourself unprepared And you're freaking out because there's no toilet paper You have been short-sighted You have behaved foolishly by not stockpiling toilet paper And you are not engaging your creative thinking Or studying how to solve your problems yet There are plenty of flannel towels and flannel sheets available at your local Goodwill So if you're out of toilet paper Go to your local Goodwill Buy a flannel sheet Cut it up into squares Put a stack of them in your bathroom next to the sink where you can get them wet Use them for the appropriate business and put aside a canister to collect them and then take them to your washing machine problem solved Now that's one of the easiest things that you can possibly do How much harder is it going to be if you face bigger problems than that This is time to get engaged get in gear get serious And start working on the logistics of your situation I hope that you have taken precautions I hope that you have saved money I hope that you have stockpiled supplies I hope that you've done those things for the years If I have not i've tried to sound the the alarm as strongly as I could over the years Um, I hope that you've listened if I didn't sound strong enough.

I'm, sorry The reason is just simply it feels weird to always be the guy who's talking about the weird stuff And I don't like to have that public reputation But learn from what you see the panic. It's just going to grow and it's going to grow and it's going to grow Until more data is known and then what I think is going to happen Is the panic is going to grow people are going to respond And then what'll happen is it'll start to die down because people will get tired of it That doesn't mean the risk gets lower people get tired of it and they figure I just got to move on with life That's what I think is happening in china right now.

People are just moving on with life and They figured out some ways to potentially contain it But in other nations, we still got to go through the hard point Look at china. Look at italy United states canada That's what's coming for you Within the next few weeks Take it seriously Don't give into your normalcy bias.

I'm fighting mine with all I can Take the precautions early The worst case is you miss out on a few weeks of social engagements I know the cost is higher with work and whatnot. Sorry. That's why you save money. That's why you keep your expenses low, etc I don't want to cause panic.

I want to keep an optimistic tone But I do want I don't want to An optimistic tone because I genuinely feel optimistic and i'm committed to looking for opportunities in the midst of disaster My study of history tells me that there are always opportunities in the midst of disaster And if this disaster continues for months and months and months There will be some people who make their fortunes in this time, and I believe that's a psychologically healthy place to be But don't let that sense of optimism Cause you not to take practical steps to isolate yourself isolate your family isolate your employees if practical When the cost is higher and if you run a business where your employees are physical, it's more difficult You might have to take more risks.

There just simply is no way around it to try to maintain for the benefit of your employees but Take the steps that you can take today and move early Even though it doesn't feel like it that gets necessary because that's what will ultimately protect you Be back with you soon i'm here to serve you got questions maybe um, I With my travel and commitments today and whatnot.

My schedule is a wreck But as soon as I can I will maybe i'll try to host a live q a show and we could talk about some of your questions and feedback Uh, i'll let you know what those details as soon as I can. Thanks for being here It's superstar battery month at o'reilly auto parts get up to a 25 Dollar gift card after rebate with the purchase of select superstar batteries Our professional parts people will test your old battery for free and recommend the right battery for your vehicle for power performance and reliability Choose superstar batteries only at o'reilly auto parts Auto parts (upbeat music)