back to indexE45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
Chapters
0:0 Besties recap, it's Chamath's Birthday, Callin app
8:58 What should protocol be for conferences & live events?
12:58 Fake it before you make it, the Elizabeth Holmes Theranos trial & implications for fraud in VC
31:28 China's video game ban, is it a good move?
39:34 Texas Senate Bill 8, allowing suing for aiding an abetting abortion
55:9 Apple alters their payment policies
63:6 Fires continue in CA, $1T of homes can't be insured & the impacts on real estate values
72:48 Joe Rogan & the narratives woven by the media & consumers
00:00:00.000 |
Hold on, let's see if we get Sax on the line. 00:00:05.320 |
I guess Sax is blowing it off because he's too busy with his app. 00:00:23.960 |
We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. 00:00:34.900 |
With us today, the Queen of Kinwad on fire in California, which also happens to be on 00:00:40.660 |
fire, sadly, and the dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya. 00:00:51.540 |
He put a C in front of it before he co-opted the All In podcast. 00:00:59.380 |
But Sax will be, if you're a Sax stan, I think Sax is... 00:01:19.380 |
I'm all too eager to take credit for Colin on Twitter, so don't pretend like you're not 00:01:33.000 |
This guy is complaining that I'm leveraging the pod. 00:01:35.180 |
You know, we should have done the Adam Neumann-style licensing of the term All In to Sax and gotten 00:01:38.780 |
paid like $7 million in equity for him using our names. 00:01:43.680 |
I gave you guys so many shout-outs, you know, during the whole... 00:01:48.100 |
No, he did, because I listened to his interview with Emily Chang, and I listened to his thing 00:02:02.060 |
...presentation, and then he was really magnanimous and kind. 00:02:07.640 |
I said that if it wasn't for J-Cal, I never would have done this whole podcasting thing, 00:02:12.600 |
And then you gave me a shout-out, because, like, of organizing it so that we could all 00:02:19.420 |
I actually haven't listened to it, but give us... 00:02:21.680 |
For those who don't know, David Sachs has created a podcasting-slash-casual audio app. 00:02:32.420 |
My understanding is you're at somewhere around 10,000 folks? 00:02:39.620 |
I haven't got all the latest numbers yet, but, yeah, no, it's taking off. 00:02:45.200 |
All the reviews of it have been sort of rave reviews. 00:02:50.320 |
But, yeah, look, the concept is we're combining social audio with podcasting. 00:02:57.660 |
We've seen these apps where people create a room, and they have these many-to-many conversations. 00:03:02.720 |
No one really records or saves them, and the quality of the conversation is... 00:03:07.660 |
It's a little bit chaotic, but we've taken that concept and put it in the service of 00:03:11.980 |
creators who can now essentially record their pod in front of a live studio audience. 00:03:19.920 |
They can bring up people from the audience one by one to ask their questions. 00:03:24.860 |
It's not a free-for-all to try and grab the mic. 00:03:27.640 |
And then once you record the episode, you can then go into post-production in the app. 00:03:31.700 |
You can edit the transcript in order to edit the episode, and then you publish it, and you can share it. 00:03:39.840 |
It's OnlyFans, but for people who don't look good on camera. 00:04:04.940 |
Let's all take a moment to say what we like about Chamath. 00:04:13.620 |
You know, I was thinking about, you know, what birthday present do I get for Chamath? 00:04:18.280 |
And then I was like, gee, what do you get for the dictator who has everything? 00:04:36.160 |
No, actually, there's actually an answer to that question. 00:04:38.080 |
Apparently, Madeleine Albright once got Kim Jong-un a basketball signed by Michael Jordan 00:04:46.340 |
Yeah, apparently that's what you get, a dictator. 00:04:48.400 |
You get them access to people they wouldn't normally have or a bone saw. 00:04:57.620 |
Ideally white, but the white doesn't hold up as well. 00:05:00.980 |
But if you go back, I mean, I wonder if you could drink like a... 00:05:04.140 |
Yesterday, I had the two fills, Deutsch and Muth, at my house. 00:05:16.100 |
And then we drank a bottle of 1996 Paul Roger Sir Winston Churchill champagne. 00:05:30.580 |
I would like you to come and play poker next Thursday, you fuckers. 00:05:33.780 |
And then two, let's just bring a bottle of... 00:05:36.080 |
Bring a really nice bottle of wine or champagne. 00:05:48.520 |
And he's like, come on, here are these fantastic bottles. 00:06:10.460 |
And so Joshua's like, wow, David, thanks, Friedberg. 00:06:14.220 |
And then Friedberg does the fucking most brutal thing. 00:06:19.620 |
He opened it and poured it on Shemot's cherry tea. 00:06:27.400 |
He goes, oh, it was in my basement in the hot, temperate, humid fucking San Francisco weather 00:06:36.720 |
And I went to the basement to get all my boxes. 00:06:39.040 |
And I'm like, I've got like hundreds of bottles of wine that I have not seen in years. 00:06:50.700 |
And there's like stuff from the 80s, from the 90s. 00:06:53.720 |
The NBA Josh took them and poured them over the arugula salad. 00:06:58.940 |
He would ruin the fucking vegetables and herbs in the garden. 00:07:10.200 |
If your dog's coming back with Nat, we've got wine. 00:07:14.040 |
All I have to say about that game is thank God Mr. Beast has 100 million followers on 00:07:23.660 |
First of all, I'm going to give a shout out to Mr. Beast. 00:07:32.720 |
I mean, for 23 years old to be that sophisticated... 00:07:39.740 |
This guy is clearly on track to being an enormous figure in culture. 00:07:44.240 |
Oh, he's going to be a fucking multi-multi-billionaire. 00:07:47.040 |
He is determined, hardworking, smart, kind, good to people. 00:07:54.040 |
And his ideas, he's creative, and he's just a good human. 00:07:57.920 |
Mr. Beast was one of the most impressive people I've met in a really, really, really long time. 00:08:02.320 |
I mean, he and I had been texting for a long time on Twitter and then just on text. 00:08:06.920 |
But then to finally meet him, and we had talked on the phone and we had Zoomed before. 00:08:10.780 |
I'd never met him in prison, but what an incredible human being. 00:08:13.200 |
Oh, why don't we have him as the bestie guestie on the pod? 00:08:18.940 |
You know what we should do is we should all round everybody up. 00:08:28.400 |
What we could do is we could tweak Phil Hellmuth and just have a game and replace Phil in the 00:08:44.140 |
By the way, are we skipping next week to record at the symposium on Monday, or are we going 00:08:57.800 |
We're doing our first all-together recording of the All In Pod a week from Monday at the 00:09:08.200 |
No reason to publicize it, but I'm excited because we're all here to kind of... 00:09:13.560 |
I just get together a bunch of scientists, investors, entrepreneurs, and CEOs, and it's 00:09:19.540 |
a day of science talks mostly, and then some business talks on the next day. 00:09:23.420 |
But we're having a really fun event the night before with poker. 00:09:26.460 |
Our friends are all coming to play poker, and we're going to record... 00:09:33.580 |
But the poker night's going to have poker, and we're going to record the All In Pod live 00:09:41.540 |
And for those of you wondering, we're going to do our own All In Summit, which will be 00:09:48.220 |
probably like 100 or 200 iconoclastic people. 00:09:52.960 |
We're going to do that in the first quarter or second quarter of next year post-pandemic. 00:09:58.060 |
My people are going crazy because you won't give them a date. 00:10:05.960 |
So if this tater wants Italy, Rome, Sachs wants Miami. 00:10:10.380 |
I'm telling you guys, Hotel Lucy is maybe the sickest hotel in the world. 00:10:15.460 |
The people, you have never seen these people ever. 00:10:34.700 |
Miami, the good thing about Miami is we know it'll be open no matter what, right? 00:10:41.160 |
Yeah, we can host our own super spreader event. 00:10:47.640 |
The Code Conference, Kara Swisher's conference is at the end of the month and Sky and Brooke 00:10:53.440 |
And I was like, is there any way this conference is going to occur? 00:10:56.620 |
And if it does occur, what happens if they're... 00:10:58.680 |
I mean, obviously everybody's going to be vaxxed. 00:11:01.600 |
I don't know if they're going to do testing outside. 00:11:04.940 |
You think everyone should be masked at the conference? 00:11:08.440 |
Well, they're going to be because it's indoors and there's a breakout event amongst the vaccinated, 00:11:15.480 |
Between Delta and Zeta 2, you're going to be forced to mask. 00:11:20.180 |
Well, I just think, how do you effectively have a... 00:11:22.180 |
I mean, I think it's really important to have a meeting with people indoors when everyone's 00:11:30.680 |
Look, I mean, I think for poker, but we are testing everyone on entry all three days. 00:11:42.180 |
And so, but then once you've done the test and someone's negative, why would you need 00:11:47.060 |
Well, I don't know about doing tests at Code every day. 00:11:48.060 |
And by the way, the stupidest thing is they do stuff like make you wear the mask. 00:12:02.800 |
And then take it off when you sit down three feet away. 00:12:08.400 |
None of us would go to an indoor event if it wasn't fully vaxxed, correct? 00:12:12.640 |
Would anybody attend an indoor event of this nature, hundreds of people, if they didn't 00:12:21.660 |
What I'm worried about is I wouldn't attend it if people weren't all being tested on entrance. 00:12:29.340 |
The vax doesn't seem to eliminate transmission right now. 00:12:32.340 |
So for you to go to an event, you would have to be vaxxed and tested that day, morning 00:12:37.780 |
Yeah, look, I mean, I think in general, everyone's kind of standard. 00:12:40.240 |
It's like make sure vax because it reduces the likelihood of transmission. 00:12:42.840 |
But still, it's not stopping transmission, clearly. 00:12:45.980 |
I'd rather-- what I care more about is point of entry testing, which is what we're doing 00:12:51.400 |
I just want everyone to get tested upon entry. 00:12:56.580 |
All right, listen, I think the most interesting thing going on in our industry this week is 00:13:04.080 |
Jury selection started this week, and it's going to cover 12 counts of fraud and conspiracy 00:13:10.360 |
to commit wire fraud over false claims she made about the blood test results from Theranos. 00:13:16.480 |
They have now selected a jury of 12 Northern California residents consisting of seven men 00:13:22.300 |
It took two days to question around 100 potential jurors about their answers to a 28-page questionnaire 00:13:27.500 |
that included news outlets they read, what news outlets they read, if they knew any witnesses 00:13:34.060 |
and if they had any negative medical experiences. 00:13:37.560 |
And it was complicated to get these because it is impossible to not know about it. 00:13:46.340 |
Now, it seems the interesting thing is Elizabeth Holmes, who worked on this company for close 00:13:54.520 |
to two decades and was involved in this fraud from start to finish, is now taking the position 00:14:01.200 |
that she was under the control of her business partner, Sonny Balwani, and that he had been 00:14:15.380 |
And so he's being tried separately, by the way. 00:14:18.100 |
They're going to be tried in sequential order. 00:14:19.640 |
So whenever this trial ends, then he gets to get tried. 00:14:23.480 |
What are your thoughts on if she will be convicted and her defense strategy? 00:14:28.700 |
I think this is less about the specific evidence against her as much as it's... 00:14:38.140 |
And it's much more right now about the whole Silicon Valley fake it before you make it. 00:14:46.140 |
And we all hear this from all the entrepreneurial advisors and stories of experience and stories 00:14:56.400 |
of success that in order to achieve success as an entrepreneur, you really have to oversell 00:15:01.900 |
and promise and create an incredible narrative about where your business is headed. 00:15:08.420 |
Now the public, the general public that doesn't operate within Silicon Valley with as much 00:15:15.060 |
They hear the stories of the Adam Neumanns and WeWork and the collapse and Elizabeth 00:15:17.960 |
Holmes and this Trevor Milton guy and Nicola. 00:15:22.100 |
But there's thousands of these other sorts of smaller stories where a VC rolls his eyes, 00:15:26.620 |
where the first board meeting after raising money is like, "Wait a second, we're actually 00:15:29.540 |
going to be half our forecast when we raise money." 00:15:32.160 |
Or the numbers are going to be way below or the product doesn't actually work as we presented 00:15:36.540 |
Sorry, I don't think I've ever funded a company where that hasn't been the case. 00:15:40.740 |
And so I think that's the big question, right, Chamath? 00:15:44.980 |
Does this trial indict the way Silicon Valley operates and the storytelling models and the 00:15:52.340 |
There are examples of these people getting a little too far ahead of their skis. 00:15:55.500 |
And maybe you can argue, they could perceive something to be non fraudulent while other 00:16:02.080 |
But don't we see this broadly in Silicon Valley? 00:16:04.200 |
And doesn't this bring up a question on like, are all startups now... 00:16:07.820 |
Is the industry going to have a shift as a result of this trial in terms of behavior 00:16:11.460 |
as investors and as entrepreneurs and how you tell stories, how you diligence? 00:16:16.560 |
This is only going to get meaningfully worse. 00:16:19.700 |
I don't know if Elizabeth Holmes committed fraud or not. 00:16:22.780 |
I think that these folks will be able to figure that out in detail. 00:16:28.360 |
But here's something that I do know pretty precisely, which is the amount of money that's 00:16:32.840 |
trying to get into Silicon Valley is going exponentially up. 00:16:36.700 |
And as that happens, you guys now see it every day where there are firms whose entire business 00:16:44.820 |
every day. They're closing deals every single day. They're doing zero diligence. And so what 00:16:52.480 |
that's going to create is an incentive for founders, particularly those whose backs are 00:16:58.240 |
against the wall, or who's doing something that's highly speculative and hard to diligence, 00:17:03.200 |
to stretch the truth to get the capital. And it's impossible for guys like us to actually step in 00:17:09.320 |
and do diligence on a lot of these companies, even if you actually have time. But then if the 00:17:14.180 |
competitive dynamic is such that you don't even have the time because somebody else beside you is 00:17:18.120 |
going to rip in a check by just meeting somebody, and quote unquote, having done the work on their 00:17:24.560 |
own, which is impossible because you don't have access to somebody's financial books, this problem 00:17:30.200 |
is only going to get worse. And so I think we as an industry just have to realize that there's going 00:17:35.560 |
to be an incentive to lie. There's going to be an incentive to stretch the truth. And it's because 00:17:43.540 |
of the amount of money that's available and the lack of diligence that's happening. 00:17:47.780 |
Yes, 100%. Sacks, is this an example in the case of Elizabeth Holmes of somebody being 00:17:53.380 |
delusional as a strength or somebody committing fraud as a crime? 00:17:57.940 |
It's probably both. Now, look, I think you guys are giving a little bit too much credence to the 00:18:04.660 |
media narrative that Theranos is a quote unquote, "Silicon Valley failure." The truth of the matter 00:18:10.740 |
is there was no major Silicon Valley VC firm in the first place. There was no major Silicon Valley VC 00:18:12.900 |
firm, in fact, not even a minor one that invested in Theranos as far as I know. There was no VC on the 00:18:20.340 |
board of Theranos. We've talked about this before. It was a bunch of grand poobah types. And there 00:18:25.140 |
was no one who actually had the technical competence to do diligence. And so Elizabeth 00:18:31.860 |
Holmes isn't so much an example of Silicon Valley as somebody who was selling Silicon Valley. She 00:18:37.460 |
was selling the promise of Silicon Valley. She was selling the idea that this was going to be a 00:18:42.260 |
great investment. And so she's a great investor. And so she's a great investor. And so she's a great 00:18:42.980 |
investor. And so she's a great investor. And so she's a great investor. And so she's a great investor. 00:18:43.780 |
To people who are too unwitting to know, and I see Tim Draper a lot, people are really hanging their 00:18:49.220 |
hat on the fact that Tim Draper wrote a seed investment to Elizabeth Holmes. That really 00:18:55.380 |
is very different. When you write a seed investment, apparently, Elizabeth Holmes was like 00:18:59.060 |
a neighbor of his. She clearly- Yeah, their daughters were friends, 00:19:01.700 |
is my understanding. Yeah. And she clearly was an impressive 00:19:05.140 |
person. She came across impressively in person. She obviously cast a pretty big reality distortion 00:19:11.220 |
field to a lot of people. And so I think that's a really good example of how you can be a good investor. 00:19:11.620 |
Yeah. And so I think that's a really good example of how you can be a good investor. And so I think 00:19:11.860 |
to a lot of smart people. So she's the type of person who you would write potentially a 00:19:19.460 |
C-check to just based on a talent bet. The fact that she later chose to engage in fraud, I don't 00:19:25.620 |
think that's Tim Draper's fault. And it doesn't make this like a Silicon Valley fraud. Again, 00:19:30.100 |
show us the VC firm that was hoodwinked by this. But you are seeing, David, this trend of 00:19:37.300 |
the firms coming in and not doing diligence, not 00:19:40.980 |
having audit rights, not having information rights, not doing proper diligence, and basically 00:19:45.140 |
relying on the previous investors. How troubling is that? And what are you doing to protect Kraft's 00:19:50.020 |
LPs? Yeah. So look, I think there's a big difference between going into a board meeting 00:19:56.180 |
and finding out the projections were inflated because frankly, we all take projections with a 00:20:01.700 |
grain of salt. But versus the founder lying about the past. So people are always going to put the 00:20:09.700 |
rosiest picture on the board. But if you're a founder, you're going to have to put the rosiest 00:20:10.340 |
picture. They're going to puff up what the future is going to look like. And it's up to you as the 00:20:14.340 |
investor to determine if that's true or not. But they cannot lie about the past. They cannot lie 00:20:18.820 |
about what their revenue was last year, what contracts they signed before you invested. 00:20:24.100 |
That is fraud, right? And that is what... That's where Elizabeth Holmes crossed the line. She 00:20:28.260 |
wasn't just painting a rosy picture of what the technology would look like years from now. She 00:20:34.980 |
was lying about their capabilities at the time people were investing. That is the line you cannot 00:20:39.700 |
Yeah. And I think that's what we're trying to do. We're trying to look at the financials. Look, 00:20:40.580 |
we conduct diligence. We try to look at financials. We try to make sure that the numbers are all true. 00:20:47.060 |
Frankly, we're not investing in things that involve a tremendous amount of technical risk, 00:20:52.340 |
a lot of technology risk. So we always use the product before we invest. The idea that the 00:20:57.380 |
product would be faked, I think it would be hard to perpetrate that kind of fraud with a SaaS 00:21:01.700 |
company. But so look, I mean, that's what we look at. 00:21:04.420 |
Well, it's interesting you bring that up. I just dropped a link into the Zoom chat. 00:21:09.060 |
David Elikwu: Co-founder and former CEO of Palo Alto-based 00:21:11.620 |
startup technology company, Headspin, charged with securities fraud and wire fraud. 00:21:16.020 |
And this guy, Laquani, 45 from Santa Clara County, basically was lying about their ARR in a SaaS 00:21:25.460 |
company. And they raised a bunch of money. So this is an example of somebody- 00:21:29.940 |
David Elikwu: It can happen in every company. 00:21:32.740 |
David Elikwu: I don't think you're inoculated just because you invest in SaaS. My point is, if you have 00:21:37.940 |
a person that's willing to invest in SaaS, you're going to invest in SaaS. If you have a person that's willing to invest in SaaS, you're going to invest in SaaS. 00:21:39.040 |
to rip in a check 100 million dollars three hours after meeting you asking for no diligence at some 00:21:45.940 |
point david your back is going to be against the wall because you're going to have to justify to 00:21:49.460 |
your lps why you aren't in some of these theoretically good deals right and some of 00:21:54.940 |
them will become fraudulent they'll just turn out to be it's just the laws of distribution 00:21:58.560 |
so it's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma you're saying shema i mean i don't do how do you you 00:22:03.820 |
have to get deals done and you're up against people who won't do diligence no it actually 00:22:08.120 |
comes down to something different which is then you have to differentiate with real brand meaning 00:22:13.140 |
if somebody really wants you on the cap table they will absolutely slow everything down to get you 00:22:20.400 |
correct so for example like let's let's assume like it's mike moritz i'll use that there is 00:22:25.020 |
nobody in the world i think who's not a complete buffoon moron who wouldn't slow his process or 00:22:31.240 |
her process down to get mike to be on their board and so if you're willing to basically just scuttle 00:22:37.760 |
it in time and you're like oh my god i'm going to do this and i'm going to do this and i'm going to 00:22:38.100 |
entire process, um, and just take the fastest money. I think 00:22:42.980 |
it actually says something that there's more risk in backing 00:22:46.960 |
somebody like you than somebody that wouldn't slow down. So, or 00:22:49.960 |
right? So then, you know, the problem is there's fewer, 00:22:52.440 |
there's fewer and fewer Mike Morrises in the world. You know? 00:22:55.080 |
I think SACS is one of those people. I think Peter Thiel is 00:22:58.200 |
another kind of person. You know, Bill Gurley is another 00:23:00.760 |
kind of person. So there are these people in our industry 00:23:02.920 |
where I think that you will, um, slow things down, and I do 00:23:07.700 |
think that it will allow these folks to do diligence. And I 00:23:10.100 |
think there'll be less fraud in general for that cohort. But if 00:23:14.240 |
your platform becomes one that's just about ripping money in, 00:23:17.060 |
and I think the late stages are roughly this, they're all, it's 00:23:20.660 |
all brand independent because the money is the same, the 00:23:26.780 |
Doesn't it introduce the risk of the retail investor? You know, 00:23:30.440 |
we're seeing more retail participation via syndicates, 00:23:34.400 |
um, you know, via, um, you know, one-off investments, 00:23:37.300 |
online kind of marketplaces and also SPACs where the retail 00:23:41.020 |
investor relies on, you know, to mock some of these kind of 00:23:44.380 |
bigger institutional or perhaps some name that gets them carried 00:23:48.460 |
interest in an investment doing the diligence. And if the 00:23:52.540 |
activity level is going up and the dollars are flowing in and 00:23:56.200 |
the margin of error is increasing, you know, is there 00:23:59.140 |
not some inevitable kind of SEC backlash and consideration around 00:24:03.280 |
how are private companies ultimately raising money, um, 00:24:06.900 |
and how much they are disclosing and we kind of face this, you know, 00:24:11.760 |
I can address this as a syndicate lead, you know, we only take 00:24:15.540 |
accredited investor money at this time. And so anything that happens is with obviously 00:24:19.860 |
sophisticated people, the top 4% of Americans investing in companies. 00:24:22.860 |
And in our diligence now we have seen a spike in what I'll call, 00:24:27.480 |
um, uh, massaging, uh, or painting the picture in a way that I'm not comfortable with. 00:24:33.840 |
And we have maybe tripled the amount of time. We're going to be able to do that. 00:24:36.500 |
But I think it's a lot of time we're putting into diligence now because I really care about my 00:24:39.980 |
reputation and maybe 20, 30% of the companies we wind up after initially wanting to invest, 00:24:46.040 |
maybe giving them an offer, getting an allocation, um, in recent history, 20, 00:24:50.240 |
30% were winding up backing out during the diligence process because, uh, their revenue 00:24:56.120 |
was not software based. There was a hundred thousand in consulting revenue. And for me, 00:25:00.080 |
it's like, if you're going to, you know, make these kind of decisions early on in the company, 00:25:06.100 |
Future fraud or future, um, moral or ethical issues. So we're, we're sitting out, uh, in a 00:25:11.680 |
lot of cases there are, uh, public platforms now, Republic and seed invest, which I know are also 00:25:17.560 |
increasing their, um, diligence process because there's so many newcomers to the space. And I 00:25:23.080 |
think there's a level I'll be quite frank here of entitlement amongst founders that is being, 00:25:27.220 |
um, let's say, uh, encouraged, uh, unintentionally by the lack of diligence that's going on. People 00:25:36.040 |
um, the process as seriously as they did 10 years ago or even five years ago. 00:25:39.580 |
Well, let me, yeah, look, I, I, I agree. I think the, the diligence you're doing is really good. 00:25:45.220 |
And, um, and here's where I agree with, with Chamath. Um, so we have seen this trend in our 00:25:50.020 |
industry of the private equity money coming in, in greater volumes in greater, you know, earlier 00:25:56.020 |
and earlier and faster and faster. Right. And it started with, you know, you have these, um, like, 00:26:01.660 |
frankly, like public company investors were looking at the, uh, I, the value. 00:26:05.920 |
At IPO relative to the last private round. And they saw, wow, there's like two, three X market 00:26:11.140 |
peer for one year. Those are phenomenal returns. Let's arb that by getting into the last private 00:26:15.580 |
round. Then they look at the second, last private round. They're like, well, wait, 00:26:18.580 |
there's a big return there. So they keep moving earlier and earlier to our about that return. 00:26:22.900 |
But to Chamath's point, it's just, they're applying a financial model where they're not 00:26:27.880 |
in the diligence business. They're just, um, and, and I think they just see like fraud as 00:26:32.080 |
a cost of doing business, right? Something they can model out with a portfolio, but, oh, 00:26:35.800 |
but the only reason they can model it out that way and have the fraud be an acceptable and 00:26:41.080 |
predictable sort of cost of doing business is because you had these firms in our industry 00:26:47.440 |
who actually did diligence at the seed at the series a right. And now, and now the private 00:26:53.200 |
equity guys they're moving so early. They're actually even now doing the they're moving 00:26:57.520 |
all the way to series a, so no one's doing the diligence. And so, so, so that is, that is a risk, 00:27:02.860 |
I think, because it might actually change things. And this is where 00:27:05.680 |
I'm bringing it back to Elizabeth Holmes. Um, I think it's important here that there's a conviction. 00:27:11.560 |
I think she should do time. This was clearly a, a major fraud, big time fraud. And even if she 00:27:17.680 |
didn't directly perpetrated on Silicon Valley VCs, I think the message to the industry would 00:27:22.300 |
be absolutely horrible if she gets away with it. And frankly, I'm a little concerned. She's 00:27:26.500 |
gonna get away with it. Um, you know, because she is incredibly charismatic. John Kerry was 00:27:31.660 |
saying on a CNBC hit that don't underestimate her charisma and ability. 00:27:35.560 |
To snow people and the defense, and she just had a baby, which, you know, people don't want to 00:27:42.160 |
discuss because it seems like it's sexist, but she is a herself who will manipulate people in the, 00:27:49.480 |
I like the way you say that. She's a like a, I think you mean Sven Gali, but right now, 00:27:57.400 |
I, I think it's probably like a 50, 50. And I think so. So here's, 00:28:05.440 |
here's the thing when she was running this company, she wanted everyone to believe she 00:28:08.320 |
was Steve jobs. She even did the media tour with the turtle neck. She wanted everyone to know that 00:28:12.700 |
she was a job Z and micromanager who made every decision was responsible for the success. Now 00:28:17.620 |
that she's on trial, she wants us to believe that she wasn't calling the shots. She wasn't 00:28:21.460 |
the person in charge, 99% voting power in the company. Yeah. Look, this, yes. 00:28:25.660 |
You know, this is sort of the, the Romy and Michelle's high school reunion defense, 00:28:29.560 |
where she wants us to suddenly believe that she was sort of like, you know, the, the sort of who 00:28:35.320 |
doesn't know anything. And you know, but she might get off because she kind of looks like Lisa Kudrow, 00:28:40.240 |
you know, three rounds. That is deep. The number of polls there based on the, I know exactly how 00:28:50.620 |
old you are. Romy and Michelle's wedding Lisa Lord. She's gonna go up there and pretend to 00:28:56.200 |
be Lisa Kudrow or something. It's super offensive that she wants to get up there and say that she 00:29:05.200 |
I mean, for women who actually are abused for her to get up there and say, she's an abused woman. 00:29:08.980 |
And she perpetrated this 20 year. Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. 00:29:11.920 |
I'm sorry. We don't know whether she was abused or not. And if she was, it may or may not have 00:29:18.460 |
implicated in what she did, which we don't know whether she did, because again, thank God for the 00:29:23.500 |
laws in America, she is presumed innocent. Yeah. 00:29:25.420 |
So let's, let's all just like, I think, I think what David, 00:29:28.780 |
where I agree with you is the following, which is we do need to know that, uh, you know, 00:29:35.080 |
investors, we all sign up for expressing the fiduciary responsibilities on behalf of our 00:29:40.900 |
LPs or on behalf of our stakeholders. Okay. There needs to be some equivalent standard 00:29:46.660 |
that founders are held to, and there needs to be consequences for lying, particularly about 00:29:52.840 |
the past because in the future you say, I'm just projecting, but in the past, you're right. You 00:29:57.640 |
have to be able to rely on what's given to you. Like, look, when we do diligence in a company, 00:30:02.080 |
we are given everything that they have, right? 00:30:04.960 |
We talk to their lawyers. We talk to their lawyers, lawyers, in some cases in the public 00:30:09.280 |
markets, all of this has to be transparently published so that we can come to our own 00:30:12.940 |
conclusion. Sometimes those conclusions are right. Sometimes they're wrong, but we can at 00:30:17.800 |
least know that they're not lying to us. The minute that it turns out that they were fudging 00:30:21.580 |
the numbers that they gave us, you're making, you know, the best decisions you can. You're 00:30:26.800 |
assuming that it's great data, but if the data is fudged, you're fucked. 00:30:30.580 |
And so to the extent that she did that, then she should be punished. 00:30:35.980 |
She, this isn't, and this goes beyond money. She was switching people's results. She was saying 00:30:41.380 |
that she was giving them a blood result on her incredible Veranos machine, and she was running 00:30:46.060 |
it to the back and, and running it on an Abbott machine. 00:30:49.780 |
Yes. And she, so she was taking investors, putting their blood into her machine, 00:30:55.540 |
the Veranos machine, then taking them for coffee, running it to an Abbott machine and 00:30:59.500 |
giving their results. I mean, this was the definition of a premeditated, deliberate, 00:31:04.720 |
and multi-year fraud. Ooh, I put her at 80% likelihood of guilty. And I put the over under 00:31:10.900 |
at 32.5 months served. Served. I don't know what the, you're taking the under of 32.5 months? 00:31:21.820 |
Well, I, I hope you're right. Cause, uh, yeah, I mean, I, I'm a little worried that, 00:31:25.600 |
uh, she's gonna figure out a way to pull the rug over people's lives here. 00:31:28.420 |
What, uh, what, what are our kids gonna get in jail if we were Chinese right now, 00:31:31.780 |
and they played video games? How many months are they gonna get? 00:31:34.600 |
Basically, I think you would, you would do harder time. Uh, so moving on to our next story. 00:31:40.300 |
Well, the, the consequences is to the Chinese internet companies. 00:31:43.000 |
No, what's the consequence to the kids if they're caught on video games? 00:31:46.480 |
No, no, no, you're not, you're, oh, I don't know. 00:31:48.040 |
The companies have to turn it off. Right, right, right. 00:31:50.080 |
All right, here we go. China bans young people from playing video games. This is for kids who 00:31:54.220 |
are under the age of 18. They are now restricted from playing games on weekdays, can only play for 00:31:59.200 |
three hours most weekends. And these were set as a response to China's 00:32:04.480 |
physical and mental health being affected by gaming. According to Reuters, uh, it limits, 00:32:09.460 |
um, I think they're doing what all American parents would want, uh, our government to do for our kids. 00:32:15.160 |
I, I don't disagree with that. Uh, gamers are now penalized if they don't obey and the gaming 00:32:22.420 |
companies will be as well. Gaming companies will have to prove they have an identification system 00:32:26.500 |
in place like requiring monitors to use their real names. 00:32:29.080 |
Do you know how fucking hard it is? I have, I have, I have three kids in that age, age range. I am 00:32:34.360 |
sweating who they're texting, who they're talking to, what game they're playing, the new game they 00:32:39.520 |
want to download. Fuck that. This is the only thing I've ever said that would make me want to 00:32:43.960 |
move to China. This one rule is the most incredible thing I've ever heard. And I, and, and they're so 00:32:51.280 |
smart. By the way, what's so beautiful is they, they send fentanyl and TikTok to us so that we 00:32:56.320 |
get addicted to that shit. And they're like, no, you guys are gonna learn STEM so that you can, 00:33:01.720 |
you know, take over the world. It's beauti- it's brilliant. Yeah. 00:33:04.240 |
I would say like everything about China is, is a measured decision, right? The, the, the, 00:33:09.220 |
the Politburo, the decision makers are not sitting there randomly shooting from the hip based on 00:33:14.680 |
intuition and saying, Hey, I think we should stop video games. They seem bad for kids. There 00:33:18.580 |
is clearly evidence and data and statistical models that are driving this decision. And their 00:33:24.040 |
objective function is improve the health, the longevity and the economic prosperity of our 00:33:30.100 |
society as a whole. I'm sorry. Did you get this statement from China? What are you doing? 00:33:34.120 |
I'm pointing out these guys are, these guys generally don't make decisions based on someone's 00:33:43.720 |
kind of like flippant intuition. They make decisions based on what they believe to be in 00:33:47.980 |
the better interest. And I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but in the better interest of economic 00:33:50.980 |
prosperity. Let's be honest. And I think we all know it intuitively. We can certainly read reports, 00:33:57.400 |
but in the United States, we value individual liberties above all else. 00:34:00.700 |
And so we don't find ourselves in the circumstance. It seems foreign 00:34:04.000 |
and scary and crazy. But again, it's another, in my opinion, it's another tool that China will use 00:34:10.180 |
to outcompete this century. Yes, that's true. But let's be clear. We don't value individual 00:34:15.940 |
liberties. That's not true. That's just what we tell people. But that's not totally true. And you 00:34:20.080 |
know that. I'm not going to go there, but yes. Well, I mean, we are literally sitting here 00:34:24.460 |
fighting. There is a group of individuals who are fighting to wear masks, or not have to wear 00:34:29.920 |
masks rather, not have to take the vaccine. And at the same time, and I don't know if we want to 00:34:33.880 |
go there. We are denying a woman's right to choose. Let's go to David Sachs. David Sachs, 00:34:42.820 |
are you in support of Texas's abortion ban? No, no, let's just hear on China. 00:34:47.980 |
No, no, I think it's a stupid law and I'll explain why in a second. But just on the China 00:34:52.180 |
thing for a second. This is, I'll be a dissenting voice here. This is like if we had given Tipper 00:34:58.180 |
Gore dictatorial powers. I mean, this is insane. They're going to, they're going to determine 00:35:03.760 |
how many hours a kid can play video games. I mean, look, I get the potential benefit, 00:35:10.060 |
but this is incredibly intrusive into the lives of citizens. And I'm not sure that video game 00:35:17.260 |
playing is altogether a negative thing. You know, I think it's mostly our kids go through a phase 00:35:22.420 |
where they play a lot of games and they grow out of it. And you know, you talk to developers, 00:35:27.340 |
computer programmers, they all went through some phase where they were like hyper addicted to video 00:35:32.500 |
games. It, you know, builds hand-eye coordination. It builds sort of, you know, computer literacy. 00:35:40.660 |
So I'm not sure it's like that. Look, obviously if someone does nothing but computer games their 00:35:45.700 |
whole life, that's a problem. But as a phase that a kid goes through, it's not the end of the world. 00:35:50.140 |
I agree with you. Cause I used to play three hours of fucking Zelda a day when I came home. 00:35:54.340 |
Cause I was a latchkey kid and I didn't have anybody to take care of me. I don't think David, 00:36:02.020 |
Joe, that that's what kids are getting when they're playing four hours of fucking call of duty 00:36:05.680 |
every night, four hours, these kids are playing 10 hours a day. I think China has another motivation 00:36:12.820 |
for, for this band, which is they've got a lot of, because of the one child policy, right? They've got 00:36:19.060 |
a radical, uh, misbalance of, you know, male to female ratio. They've got a lot of young males 00:36:25.660 |
without romantic prospects in that country. Basically they have an incel problem in cell. Yeah. 00:36:31.060 |
It's a, it's a giant incel problem. I don't think we hear much about it. Um, because they control 00:36:36.640 |
the media, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of just random violence out there. And the 00:36:41.680 |
last thing they wanna do is have these incels playing Fortnite and call of duty, shooting 00:36:46.480 |
people five hours a night and then getting their brains wired that way that might be playing into 00:36:51.580 |
this decision. I don't know. Well, again, you're just validating the mental health aspect. They've 00:36:55.480 |
studied the mental health implications of these video games. And they say, that's my point. I'm 00:36:59.860 |
arguing for the ban. I'm arguing for the fact that China has certainly done something to indicate 00:37:04.960 |
they have some data that indicates why they should make this decision. It may be you're right. It may 00:37:08.740 |
be about kind of, you know, growing, getting people to be more romantic and get out of the 00:37:12.640 |
house and go get married and have kids and whatnot. But there's certainly a, and remember 00:37:16.720 |
their objective function is always about longevity and economic prosperity. So, you know, there's 00:37:21.280 |
something that's making them say that we can increase economic prosperity, increase longevity 00:37:24.940 |
by doing this. And that outweighs the, whatever the detrimental social and other 00:37:29.740 |
effects might be. And, you know, I think there's something to read into it, but no matter what, 00:37:34.120 |
every big decision they make has some degree of competitive advantage for them. And, you know, 00:37:41.440 |
those kids, if they're not playing video games, they're going to be doing something else. Like, 00:37:44.740 |
I don't know, programming computers, doing biotechnology in a lab, figuring stuff out 00:37:49.420 |
on the internet, writing the next cryptocurrency. I don't know, but there's going to be some 00:37:52.720 |
advantage that's going to arise out of the time and the productivity that's going to be generated 00:37:57.580 |
by this. And I think that's the calculus that they're, you know, they're going to be able to do. 00:37:59.720 |
And I think that's the calculus that they're, you know, they're going to be able to do. And I think that's the calculus that they're undertaking here. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. No, no, we all agree they're thoughtful. The question is, what is this going to do for this generation if they don't play video games? Are they going to be more productive? Are they going to be, you know? They'll be good drones for the collective, you know? That's right. No, you're right. You're right. You're exactly right. And that's the downside here is even if they get it right in this particular case, how much freedom do you have to give up? How much state surveillance is there in the 00:38:29.700 |
enforcement? And how many other insane policies will they foist on people with this mentality of you don't get to live your life individually? You got to serve as a collective? 00:40:59.600 |
with an advisor. And so, it delayed the abortion, but it didn't restrict or didn't otherwise 00:41:05.520 |
eliminate. Let me add. Yeah. So, Casey, Roe as modified by Casey is really the law of the land 00:41:14.120 |
right now, which is the undue burden. Then Texas comes along and do you want to explain this law? 00:41:18.540 |
Yeah. So, this law is, regardless of what you think about abortion, it's a really bizarre law 00:41:27.140 |
because what it does is it doesn't just ban. It doesn't ban abortion outright. What it does is 00:41:34.220 |
create a private right of action, basically a right to sue in civil court anyone who aids and 00:41:43.080 |
abets an abortion after about five or six weeks. Six weeks. Six weeks. Basically, after a fetal 00:41:49.000 |
heartbeat can be detected, which is about six weeks into the pregnancy. And the way the law 00:41:53.480 |
works is that... Okay. So, point one. Point two. Point three. Point four. Point five. Point six. 00:41:57.120 |
Abortion providers are prohibited from performing abortion if they can detect fetal heart tones. 00:42:00.800 |
Again, that's six weeks. There's no exception for rape and incest. I think that's 00:42:05.240 |
really explosive politically. And horrible. Do you think it's horrible as a human? 00:42:11.360 |
Yeah. I think it's... I'm curious your personal position. 00:42:13.480 |
Yeah. Well, let's get... Let me just explain the law. So, the law puts the onus of enforcement 00:42:19.440 |
on private citizens, not government officials. Okay. They do that to make it harder to legally 00:42:27.100 |
Okay. So, what the government has done here, what Texas has done is it gives private citizens the 00:42:32.380 |
ability to sue abortion providers or anyone who aids and abets someone to get an abortion. So, 00:42:37.540 |
it could be an Uber driver. It could be a friend who simply drives someone to the abortion clinic. 00:42:41.940 |
It could be a person who provides financial assistance. It could be a secretary who works 00:42:46.640 |
at the abortion clinic. They can all be sued now under aiding and abetting. And here's really the... 00:42:51.580 |
The person who had the abortion cannot be sued, but anyone who aided and abetted can be. That's 00:42:57.080 |
how they're getting around the right to choose. And here's the craziest part is the citizens who 00:43:02.620 |
choose to sue don't need to show any connection to the person they're suing. And they don't even 00:43:09.280 |
have to live in the state, right? So, there's no connection to them. There's no personal injury to 00:43:14.620 |
them, but they're basically suing under a personal injury under a civil right of action. And if they 00:43:19.720 |
succeed, the law states that they're entitled to at least $10,000 in damages in addition to their 00:43:26.120 |
legal costs. So, they're entitled to at least $10,000 in damages in addition to their legal 00:43:27.060 |
costs. So, if they win, their legal costs get paid, but if they lose, they don't have to cover 00:43:33.260 |
the defendant's legal fees. So, they just get a free shot here, which is also... I've never seen 00:43:37.280 |
a loser pay rule like this. I mean, there are loser pay rules, but they're symmetric. So, 00:43:42.580 |
we have an asymmetric loser pays rule. But I don't think we've ever had a civil law like this 00:43:49.140 |
where somebody can sue where there's no injury to them. There's no standing here. 00:43:57.040 |
This is the thing that's fundamentally, I think, at odds with our entire legal tradition. 00:44:01.280 |
And I think regardless of what you think about abortion, this law will eventually be invalidated 00:44:06.660 |
by the Supreme Court or a lower court on that ground that they're allowing people to sue 00:44:10.620 |
without standing. And it's a horrible precedent because can you imagine if... What Texas is 00:44:17.260 |
basically doing is deputizing private citizens to enforce in civil courts a prohibition that they 00:44:24.260 |
cannot or will not pass directly. And so, they're allowing people to sue without standing. And 00:44:27.020 |
I think that's the thing that's really, really important. 00:44:28.020 |
Is this the best they could come up... In your... 00:44:29.020 |
Well, hold on. Let's just state a couple more facts. This was an extremely well thought out 00:44:36.180 |
law. I think that the pro-life faction in Texas clearly had some very smart constitutional thinkers 00:44:45.800 |
that were able to navigate around Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood versus Casey to get something 00:44:51.120 |
written that could be passed in a way where Sam Alito just basically punted and said, 00:44:57.000 |
And so, this is going to have to meander through the courts. There is still a risk that it could 00:45:00.940 |
just get kicked down to Texas and it could remain a state issue, which there is a big risk. And if 00:45:05.640 |
that's true, then other states could basically take a run at copying this law. What I wanted to 00:45:12.160 |
talk about was if you bring it all together, Friedberg said something about we really value 00:45:17.620 |
personal freedom. And this is where I was cynically like, actually, that's not true. 00:45:21.040 |
This is an example, in my opinion, of where this is just like, we are very hypocritical. 00:45:26.980 |
We're, you know, if we talk about a vaccine mandate, you know, there's just an entire fiery, 00:45:32.780 |
you know, up in arms of people, usually typically in the same states that are very anti-abortion, 00:45:38.200 |
that are like, you know, you know, tread on me lightly, you can't touch my body, 00:45:41.560 |
you know, I have the right to decide. But when it comes to this topic, 00:45:45.760 |
they abandon all of that, and they go to the extreme opposite side, which is the government 00:45:50.660 |
mandates. And to be able to say that to 50% of the population, that just because you are 00:45:56.960 |
born with reproductive organs, that you're treated different, specifically, you know, 00:46:00.980 |
a uterus, ovaries, and a vagina, you're treated differently than a man, to me just seems absolutely 00:46:05.960 |
insane. And just like fundamentally just erodes this idea of equality, like at just a very 00:46:10.980 |
principled level. And the even worse thing is that then, you know, the corporations that actually 00:46:18.240 |
used to be on the front lines of helping to drive social justice so far have been completely absent, 00:46:24.040 |
right? You have to remember in 2019, when we had the 00:46:26.940 |
very repressive abortion laws, I think it was in Mississippi or Alabama, you had all of these 00:46:31.700 |
companies come out and say, Hey, no, not here, not under our watch. Then when you had all these 00:46:36.900 |
voter suppression laws in Georgia, right, you had all these companies come out and say, Hey, 00:46:41.900 |
absolutely not, not on our watch, we will leave the state if you implement these things. 00:46:46.180 |
But so far, what you've seen in this law is complete radio silence in Texas. And this is, 00:46:52.460 |
you know, you have to remember, Texas is the ninth largest economy in the world. 00:46:56.920 |
Right in the world. So you have every single kind of company from technology to otherwise, 00:47:03.080 |
who have chosen to either start or relocate their businesses in the state. And I got to think that, 00:47:08.680 |
you know, these employees, and these leaders of these businesses should be saying something, 00:47:16.320 |
Freeberg, you have thoughts? And then we'll go to your sex. 00:47:26.900 |
I think that the idea of freedom, to what they believe, 00:47:33.900 |
You know, should everyone have complete freedom to the point that they can take a gun and go shoot anyone that they want? 00:47:38.900 |
The answer is no, I think even the most diehard libertarians would argue that there's some degree of what is it, 00:47:45.300 |
John Stuart Mill sex, you know, you should have the ability to do whatever you want within your sphere of influence, 00:47:51.700 |
as long as it doesn't intersect with the sphere of influence of others. And so the philosophical argument 00:47:56.880 |
that I believe the pro-life movement made, which is really a different point of view on values, 00:48:01.880 |
is that the sphere of influence of a fetus exists at some point in time, 00:48:06.880 |
and therefore shouldn't be invaded by the mother. 00:48:09.880 |
Now, I'm not speaking, obviously, my point of view, my point of view is extremely pro-choice, 00:48:20.880 |
is I think one that we all kind of blush over and assume that it's about taking away a woman's right without, 00:48:26.860 |
recognizing the voice on the other side, which says that there is a right to life by a fetus at a certain point in time. 00:48:34.860 |
And so to me, there's almost like this principle debate that arises, and it probably certainly falls more along religious lines than it does along, 00:48:41.860 |
on a religious spectrum than it does on a kind of a libertarian spectrum or a spectrum of liberties that kind of defines that crossover point for people. 00:48:51.860 |
But clearly, Texas is a really interestingly confused state, right? 00:48:56.840 |
And so, you know, I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:48:59.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:01.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:03.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:05.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:07.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:09.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:11.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:13.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:15.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:17.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:19.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:21.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:23.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:26.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:28.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:30.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:32.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:34.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:36.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:38.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:40.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:42.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:44.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:46.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:48.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:50.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:53.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:55.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:57.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:49:59.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:01.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:03.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:05.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:07.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:09.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:11.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:13.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:15.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:17.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:20.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:22.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:24.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:26.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:28.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:30.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:32.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:34.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:36.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:38.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:40.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:42.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:44.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:47.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:49.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:51.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:53.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:55.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:57.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:50:59.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:01.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:03.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:05.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:07.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:09.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:11.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:14.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:16.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:18.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:20.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:22.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:24.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:26.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:28.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:30.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:32.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:34.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:36.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:38.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:41.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:43.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:45.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:47.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:49.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:51.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:53.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:55.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:57.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:51:59.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:01.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:03.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:05.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:08.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:10.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:12.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:14.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:16.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:18.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:20.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:22.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:24.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:26.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:28.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:30.840 |
And I think that's the point that I'm trying to make. 00:52:34.840 |
If you go back to Roe v. Wade, it was written by a man, first of all, 00:52:38.840 |
which, you know, we can debate whether that makes any fucking sense. 00:52:41.840 |
But Harry Blackmun went to the Mayo Clinic and lived there for like six or eight weeks 00:52:46.840 |
reading medical textbooks and came up with this trimester framework. 00:52:49.840 |
And again, I'm just going to go out on a limb and say, 00:52:52.840 |
I don't have a fucking clue what's going on in a woman's body. 00:52:54.840 |
And I don't think Harry Blackmun did, even though he was much smarter than I 00:53:02.840 |
And he did it by going to this fetal viability thing. 00:53:04.840 |
So we have this law that was really kind of ill-conceived, 00:53:08.840 |
but was kind of going in the right direction. 00:53:10.840 |
But it was really a very first form of judicial activism. 00:53:15.840 |
but it's always been an issue where eventually what's really been happening 00:53:19.840 |
is we've been pushing this to the state's right issue. 00:53:22.840 |
And I think that the cleverness of this bill, and it's dangerous, 00:53:29.840 |
This was not a random thing where two haphazard dicks 00:53:34.840 |
I think that this was methodically planned out for years. 00:53:42.840 |
David, for example, we now have an activist Supreme Court 00:53:47.840 |
who may actually not opine on this on the validity of the issue, 00:53:53.840 |
If this stays in Texas and doesn't get outside of Texas, 00:53:56.840 |
you will have this specific thing hold and stand. 00:54:02.840 |
And I think that's a very bad precedent to have set. 00:54:07.840 |
and I don't think they thought that it was an easy way to overturn it. 00:54:10.840 |
And I think that's why when everybody was waiting with bated breath 00:54:17.840 |
Listen, I think there's a lot of hysteria and hyperbole on social media right now 00:54:23.840 |
the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade. 00:54:27.840 |
Yes, but they're saying that because the Supreme Court ruled 00:54:31.840 |
on very narrow procedural grounds that it wasn't ready to hear 00:54:34.840 |
about the Texas law because a harm hasn't been committed yet. 00:54:37.840 |
But they haven't said they won't look at it in the future. 00:54:41.840 |
I believe that this law will be found unconstitutional. 00:54:49.840 |
but just because they're changing the legal definition of standing 00:54:54.840 |
in a way that flies against everything we know 00:55:00.840 |
I think ultimately this is too clever by half by the state attorney general. 00:55:10.840 |
Do we want to move on and talk about Apple allowing people 00:55:15.840 |
The Apple thing is really big news because it kind of goes to show you 00:55:18.840 |
that you had a pretty progressive legislative framework in South Korea. 00:55:24.840 |
I don't think it's particularly a huge market for Apple because most of the... 00:55:29.840 |
App activity, I think, is Android more than it is Apple. 00:55:35.840 |
And by deciding to basically conform to this law, 00:55:38.840 |
then they started with these reader apps and allowing payments... 00:55:43.840 |
It's the beginning of the beginning for the app stores 00:55:48.840 |
Just so people understand, Apple said it would allow media apps 00:55:53.840 |
to create in-app links to sign up pages on those companies' websites, 00:55:58.840 |
It's allowing the likes of Spotify and Netflix 00:56:00.840 |
to bypass the iPhone maker's cut of subscriptions. 00:56:02.840 |
Now, of course, you can use Spotify and Netflix on your phone, 00:56:06.840 |
Probably people haven't experienced this because they've already become members of it 00:56:09.840 |
and did it on their site, but you can't actually pay through your phone 00:56:17.840 |
They were technically not allowed to link to it. 00:56:19.840 |
So this is a small, small concession only to media folks. 00:56:27.840 |
At the beginning of the end, I think there's some truth to that. 00:56:31.840 |
Look, I think the root of this is the fact that Apple has this 30% rate 00:56:40.840 |
And like Bill Gurley said, it's a rake too far, right? 00:56:44.840 |
Just because you can charge 30% doesn't mean you should charge 30%. 00:56:48.840 |
Ultimately, this is why the whole ecosystem has been up in arms. 00:56:51.840 |
They formed an industry coalition to challenge Apple. 00:56:59.840 |
And a lot of these companies like Spotify and Tile, 00:57:06.840 |
So I think this 30% rake has ultimately backfired on Apple. 00:57:13.840 |
They've already had to roll it back for these so-called reader apps. 00:57:17.840 |
So if what you're doing is buying a subscription to, say, Netflix, 00:57:21.840 |
Netflix will now be able to redirect you to their website. 00:57:33.840 |
But this now opens the door for this type of thing to apply to games as well, 00:57:40.840 |
where there's a lot more in-app purchases like Fortnite, right? 00:57:44.840 |
So I just think this is a case where, you know, 00:57:46.840 |
what's the old line that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered? 00:57:50.840 |
Apple has been a hog and now it's getting slaughtered. 00:57:56.840 |
this is a really interesting experience of the free market. 00:58:00.840 |
You know, clearly consumers and the developers in the App Store ecosystem 00:58:07.840 |
were vocal and angry enough that this behavioral change from Apple, 00:58:16.840 |
I just want to point out how important and relevant that is that you're having regulators... 00:58:23.840 |
And having the government and regulators come in and, you know, 00:58:26.840 |
people complaining to the Senate about Google and Apple monopolizing them out of their businesses 00:58:32.840 |
ultimately gets resolved when there's enough kind of collective mass from the consumer/partner 00:58:40.840 |
"We're not going to play by these games anymore, by these rules anymore." 00:58:43.840 |
I got to think Lena Khan being appointed did make Apple think maybe we should stop. 00:58:49.840 |
It may have instigated enough fear here, right? 00:58:54.840 |
Some modest concession that, yeah, if you're a Spotify or a Netflix or Audible, 00:59:02.840 |
I mean, Zach, you're all about regulation and monopolies and antitrust. 00:59:08.840 |
Don't you think this is a nice win for the free market? 00:59:16.840 |
I don't think letting monopolies do whatever they want is free market, okay? 00:59:26.840 |
they will basically get in the way of permissionless innovation. 00:59:31.840 |
So I, you know, I'm in favor of reining in these monopolies. 00:59:34.840 |
And the two big issues I think with Apple and Google, 00:59:41.840 |
So the idea that they have total control over what apps get loaded onto your iOS device. 00:59:46.840 |
People want the ability to create alternative app stores. 00:59:58.840 |
I mean, what they should do is if you click on sideload apps, 01:00:05.840 |
You know, you're subjecting yourself to phishing scams, your information, 01:00:12.840 |
I've always thought that would be the best decision for it. 01:00:14.840 |
What I like about this is I think this gives Apple the ability to now just compete against 01:00:19.840 |
everybody in the app store without having to have this, 01:00:26.840 |
They are not partners with people in the app store. 01:00:30.840 |
And when something great comes and emerges, they will copy it. 01:00:36.840 |
So Apple Music studied Spotify and they created their own Apple product. 01:00:40.840 |
Apple TV Plus now with Ted Lasso is competing against Netflix. 01:00:46.840 |
And I signed up for Apple Arcade for my daughter's. 01:00:48.840 |
Because I didn't want them to be paying for like in-app purchases. 01:00:53.840 |
I'd rather just have the games be stop upselling them. 01:00:57.840 |
And that's been wonderful for five or ten bucks a month to have that. 01:01:01.840 |
So now they can just compete against everybody directly. 01:01:04.840 |
I think all of these media companies are going to be video games, 01:01:10.840 |
So I don't know if you saw Netflix is going to be doing podcasts about their shows and video games. 01:01:19.840 |
And Disney Plus will have games built into Disney Plus, I bet, in that subscription price. 01:01:31.840 |
And it's easier to innovate and compete against a monopoly, to be honest, than it is to compete against cronyism. 01:01:37.840 |
When there's kind of embedded government regulation that prevents emerging competitors from competing effectively, 01:01:46.840 |
it's a lot harder to win than against some slow, big, un-innovative monopoly. 01:01:59.840 |
So I agree with you that big, slow, lumbering monopolies can be great to compete against. 01:02:04.840 |
When they control access to an ecosystem when they're gatekeepers, that's the problem. 01:02:08.840 |
Because now you have to go to them, and they're going to be slow, lumbering, and stupid in terms of allowing you to innovate. 01:02:15.840 |
And when they see you becoming a threat, they'll squawk you. 01:02:19.840 |
If these guys didn't control platforms, that would be one thing. 01:02:22.840 |
But they control the most important platform there is, which is the operating system. 01:02:25.840 |
So I just think that, you know, this is Microsoft and Windows all over again. 01:02:33.840 |
Well, and in Microsoft's example, you could load whatever software you wanted. 01:02:37.840 |
They weren't saying you couldn't load Netscape. 01:02:41.840 |
They're just saying, "We're going to give you Internet Explorer with the operating system." 01:02:45.840 |
I mean, Apple is saying, "You can't even install your app." 01:02:48.840 |
Yeah, Microsoft was actually pretty open by comparison. 01:02:51.840 |
But there is like a version of bundling here. 01:02:53.840 |
What Spotify said is, "Look, when we have to pay 30% and Apple Music doesn't have to pay anything, we can't compete with that." 01:03:07.840 |
This is, what, the third or fourth year in a row this has gotten acute for the Bay Area. 01:03:13.840 |
As Freeberg mentioned on the last pod, I think, or two pods ago, there was like two or three weeks of the year, maybe even a month, where you just can't really be outside in Northern California. 01:03:29.840 |
Three of our friends have been evacuated because they moved up there in the middle of the pandemic. 01:03:37.840 |
One of our friends' homes is literally threatened. 01:03:43.840 |
And then the fire season is moving up earlier and earlier in the year. 01:03:48.840 |
My kids were in camp in Tahoe this July, and they had to be evacuated. 01:03:52.840 |
And fortunately for us, we had a really good friend of ours, a neighbor here, whose kids were also at the camp, be able to drive up in the... 01:04:05.840 |
There's about $8 trillion of real estate value in California. 01:04:11.840 |
And if you assume a 10th of that is exposed in the middle of this kind of dense fire, these dense fire regions, let's say it's a trillion dollars. 01:04:21.840 |
There's a trillion dollars of real estate value that you cannot insure anymore. 01:04:28.840 |
I was looking two or three years ago when these fires started, maybe it was four or five years ago now, for a blanket that could go over a home, could be installed or dropped over a home with helicopters. 01:04:40.840 |
But is there a material that's light enough that you could put it on a helicopter and drop it over one of these... 01:04:49.840 |
Imagine if these homes had on the roof some sort of a system that when fire or heat got there, it just deployed the blanket and protected the home. 01:04:56.840 |
I don't know if you guys know this, but right now in Marin County in California, it's nearly impossible to get fire insurance. 01:05:02.840 |
And this is becoming kind of a predominant factor in California, particularly in all the areas with lots of forest land. 01:05:09.840 |
There's 100 million acres of forest land in California. 01:05:11.840 |
So if a trillion dollars of real estate is actually exposed to fires and you can't get fire insurance, ask yourselves the question, what's going to happen when hundreds of billions of dollars of real estate literally goes up in smoke or gets sold off? 01:05:32.840 |
And that's just the tip of the iceberg of the effect that may arise as these things start to take hold. 01:05:37.840 |
You know, we had this huge upswing in real estate in Tahoe. 01:05:38.840 |
As everyone moved out of California and went to Tahoe during the pandemic. 01:05:41.840 |
Now we're seeing Tahoe real estate sell off like crazy. 01:05:44.840 |
This happened in wine country in Sonoma and Napa County last year after the big fires they had there. 01:05:49.840 |
And so there are counties where you start to have these massive fires causing this massive real estate sell off and or the real estate burns and it's uninsured. 01:05:58.840 |
The federal government steps in and ultimately the federal government is going to have these like Katrina events four or five times a year that we're going to be underwriting losses for people's real estate that's valued in a way that doesn't make sense. 01:06:07.840 |
And so we're going to have these massive fires that are going to be underwriting losses for people's real estate that's valued in a way that doesn't account for the effects of climate change. 01:06:10.840 |
You know, I started a massive shift in economic value that we're going to someone's going to have to pay for over the next decade. 01:06:16.840 |
And this is just the beginning of it all is my is my strong belief. 01:06:20.840 |
I tweeted this out about maybe six or seven months ago. 01:06:23.840 |
But with another with this fabulous entrepreneur named David Soloff, I co-founded an insurance company called OTT Risk. 01:06:30.840 |
And, you know, we've been trying to build models and price.