back to indexE41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Chapters
0:0 Intro & Dog update
5:48 COVID, Vaccine mandates, public vs. private policy
26:26 Collectivism, comparison to cigarettes, Sacks' latest podcast beef
36:56 Vaccine incentives in France
45:39 Friedberg's science corner: DeepMind's latest breakthrough, Big Tech censorship, free speech infringements
59:40 Capital's role in progress, Bezos' poor press conference, difference in criticism by party, Elon & Bezos as capital allocators
70:46 Modern online pessimist psychology & how to fix it
81:32 Besties give their tech industry takeaways
00:00:00.000 |
sacks, I am going to give you $1,000 each to the charity of 00:00:05.200 |
your choice for every correct answer. Fuck it 10,000. But you 00:00:10.680 |
have to answer you have to answer in real time and you 00:00:13.280 |
can't fuck around. Okay, no stalling. This is this is to 00:00:16.980 |
any charity chooses included Tucker Carlson 2024. Okay, let's 00:00:20.280 |
go to give the answers right away. You cannot fucking think 00:00:23.400 |
about this. Here we go. Three, two, one. First middle and last 00:00:31.680 |
Time we're ready. No, already. Okay, go do you know you can 00:00:40.260 |
beat these out Nick. Go ahead. Go. So is January. 00:01:05.920 |
You're trying to stop me. You're trying to stop me. 00:01:28.300 |
I got there. He got there. That's all that matters is he got 00:01:31.540 |
So you're gonna give that you're gonna give 10 grand. 00:01:34.000 |
Yeah, 10 grand each to 30 grand 30 grand to Tucker Carlson for 00:02:02.920 |
Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to your favorite podcast, 00:02:06.700 |
the all in podcast where we talk about the economy, technology, 00:02:11.260 |
politics, and basically anything that's in the news with us today. 00:02:17.260 |
Again, the Queen of Kinwa himself, David Friedberg. How are 00:02:23.620 |
All right, people are looking for the dog. Where's the dog? 00:02:26.500 |
Monty. He's sitting here on the floor. Monty, come here. Come on. Come here. Come on, Monty. 00:02:31.600 |
All right. And from a random palace somewhere in the world. The dictator himself Chamath Pali 00:02:39.340 |
I'm doing great. You know, I got another dog. 00:02:46.900 |
I went to the breeder that I got Aki from and she had a three year old that was not really, you know, ever going to become a breeding dog or whatever. So I adopted the three year old. He has a parasite. So he's been pooing everywhere, everywhere. 00:03:06.500 |
That's great information for the call over the cat all over the castle all over the castle. Fantastic. 00:03:11.300 |
Liquid poop, by the way, but we finally diagnosed it today and he's going to the to the vet to get some liquids and to get the parasite expunged from his body. 00:03:22.280 |
Okay, thank you for that information. I don't know where you know, nobody cares. How you were doing. I thought you were just gonna say great. I didn't know we were gonna go straight to diarrhea. 00:03:35.300 |
We got a new dog to you did and it's it's been kind of a disaster. The kids were like that. We found this like, I think, you know, golden that is really calm, you know, like she's just super low energy and calm. It's like perfect for us. I'm like, I don't know. I think that's just like the puppies kind of asleep, you know, like it's gonna wake up. They're like, no, no, no, no, no. This is like a special dog. It's like really well behaved or so. Anyway, we get it. Sure enough, like a week later, the puppy wakes up. 00:04:05.160 |
And she's eating everything in the house, destroying everything. It's been Yeah, so now we're wait, is that dog number two or three for you? It's dog two with the dog. One was a rescue dog. Who's great. So dog number two is now getting trained. 00:04:19.960 |
All right, David Sachs is with us. Of course, the Rayman himself and in related dog stories. I put all the girls to bed and then I hear screaming. I get up, I run outside. Literally the new bulldog who's nine months old. Maximus 00:04:33.960 |
this guy went on, you know, one of his running fits, one of my 00:04:39.720 |
daughters falls out of bed, gets like a bruise on her like lower 00:04:44.700 |
back and she's whaling, the other daughter feels terrible 00:04:48.200 |
about it. And then the dog decides that he is going to 00:04:51.120 |
projectile vomit everywhere. All at the same time. You guys have 00:04:55.320 |
had these moments where like, it's just complete utter chaos, 00:04:58.260 |
it's chaos, chaos. It's cats, dogs plus kids equals chaos. So 00:05:03.740 |
I don't know if I said any other way. I love the combo of 00:05:06.080 |
dogs and kids. It's just the best. It's pretty great. It's 00:05:09.200 |
dogs are amazing. And kids, especially when you bring in a 00:05:12.020 |
new dog or a puppy into the house. It's chaos, but it's a 00:05:15.800 |
Well, you know what I think also is like, think about how 00:05:18.920 |
overrated everything in life is people like, Oh my god, this 00:05:21.560 |
place with the pasta in Italy, it's the greatest life changing 00:05:24.020 |
thing. And all this movie was incredible. It's the best movie 00:05:27.260 |
ever made. And it's never the best movie ever made or the 00:05:30.320 |
best pasta ever. It's great or whatever. But I think kids and 00:05:33.300 |
dogs are underrated. universally have as many kids as 00:05:38.340 |
you can possibly biologically have and can economically afford 00:05:41.820 |
is my one opinion. And the more dogs the better. I love dogs. 00:05:47.040 |
Yeah. All right. I think we should start with the COVID 00:05:50.400 |
cases, because this is impacting everything from the economy, to 00:05:56.040 |
people's decisions, touching on people's freedoms. And it's hard 00:06:00.120 |
to know where to start here. But I think facts are always a good 00:06:01.660 |
I think facts are always a good place to start. But I think facts 00:06:01.780 |
are always a good place to start. But I think facts are always a 00:06:01.780 |
good place to start. But I think facts are always a good place to 00:06:01.780 |
start. But I think facts are always a good place to start. But I 00:06:01.780 |
think facts are always a good place to start. But I think facts are 00:06:01.780 |
always a good place to start. But I think facts are always a good place 00:06:01.780 |
but I think facts are always a good place to start. Here in the 00:06:04.400 |
United States, we had gotten COVID cases, you know, to that 00:06:08.100 |
12,000 a day average, it was pretty amazing. And it looked 00:06:11.820 |
like it was gonna go straight down smooth sailing. And we had 00:06:15.520 |
deaths down and around. I saw some seven day averages, where 00:06:20.340 |
we were at 150 200. Now the weekends are kind of weird, in 00:06:25.280 |
terms of reporting, but the seven day average today is at 00:06:31.220 |
For a month, when you do this, this is according to the New 00:06:34.340 |
York Times statistics and Google, you can search for 00:06:36.860 |
Google and you'll find these have some great data that 00:06:40.320 |
they'll just put right in the search result. However, cases 00:06:43.280 |
have gone from this 1215 K a day average, soaring in just 30 days 00:06:49.520 |
to 62,000 a day and a seven day average of 40,000. So we're 00:06:54.600 |
basically tripled the number of cases, cases trail 00:06:58.280 |
traditionally debts by something in the neighborhood, 00:07:01.040 |
and that's the average in the neighborhood of 10 days, I think 00:07:04.820 |
I'm correct, Friedberg. So what do you think is actually going 00:07:08.840 |
to happen here, we're gonna we're gonna get up to 10 100,000, 00:07:12.320 |
200,000 cases a day, and maybe double the number of deaths from 00:07:16.800 |
the people who are not vaccinated? Yeah, you know, the 00:07:19.660 |
current logic on this is that there will be because of the 00:07:24.080 |
number of people that are generally infected and are 00:07:27.020 |
spreading what is now an even more infectious variant of COVID. 00:07:30.280 |
So we're going to see that the number of people that are not 00:07:33.580 |
vaccinated are starting to get it at a higher rate. And that's 00:07:37.480 |
where the deaths are starting to come from. So yeah, we will see 00:07:41.200 |
deaths climb. And I think like we talked about last time, we're 00:07:44.260 |
starting to see even Gavin did an interview yesterday in 00:07:46.660 |
California talking about how, you know, there it's on the 00:07:49.780 |
table that we may go back to certain restrictions, 00:07:53.140 |
behavioral restrictions, mask mandates, etc. So there's going 00:08:00.100 |
then we're going to see the market start to react to the 00:08:02.440 |
potential of that on Monday. And then very interestingly, kind 00:08:06.100 |
of reverse course, Tuesday, and everything came back, when 00:08:09.340 |
everyone was freaked out on Monday after they saw the 00:08:10.900 |
weekend's data, which showed that cases are climbing like 00:08:13.360 |
crazy in the US. But I think the conventional wisdom is not that 00:08:17.140 |
many people are going to die. Therefore, we're not going to 00:08:18.940 |
see, you know, political leaders, force restrictions that 00:08:24.760 |
are kind of going to damage the economy. And we're going to 00:08:27.340 |
start to walk what I think Israel is calling the golden 00:08:29.920 |
road, which is balancing the economy with the the health of 00:08:32.500 |
the citizenry. So. So you know, we'll see, it's going to come 00:08:37.300 |
down to policy. But I think from a desk perspective, there will 00:08:39.280 |
absolutely be a rise in deaths now as unvaccinated people are 00:08:42.340 |
the going to be the bulk of those deaths. And, and this 00:08:44.620 |
thing is spreading again amongst people that haven't been 00:08:47.020 |
Well, and then sacks, this becomes now a great raw shock 00:08:51.460 |
test of what do you see in this data and in this moment, because 00:08:57.760 |
it's a pandemic, as many people are saying, now, it's going to 00:08:59.740 |
be a pandemic. Now, I think this is becoming the meme or the 00:09:02.620 |
catchphrase. It's a pandemic of the unvaccinated. So people have 00:09:05.740 |
chosen to opt into this pandemic, and then a group of us 00:09:09.580 |
have chosen to not be part of it, you were part of it, even as 00:09:13.120 |
a vaccinated person, but you're feeling great. You're back to 100%. 00:09:17.080 |
So what do you think should happen in terms of closings or 00:09:24.340 |
shutdowns, or mask mandates? What's your take on the pandemic 00:09:29.860 |
Well, I think we need to differentiate between public 00:09:33.940 |
policy and private behavior. So yeah, after last week's episode 00:09:38.320 |
where I said, you know, Delta variants real, there's gonna be 00:09:41.060 |
huge spike in cases. Unfortunately, I thought we had 00:09:44.260 |
this thing whipped, you know, a few weeks ago, now, I think the 00:09:47.240 |
data is showing something different. You know, everyone, 00:09:49.600 |
there's a lot of commenters saying sacks, you've turned 00:09:51.820 |
you've been blue pilled. No, it's, you know, I think there's 00:09:54.520 |
a difference between acknowledging what's going on, 00:09:56.940 |
and then having the the policy conversation around it. 00:09:59.380 |
I think that the difference now from last year, I mean, there's a 00:10:03.260 |
couple of things. One is that we do have vaccines. So I think for 00:10:08.560 |
most people getting vaccinated will take the worst risks off 00:10:11.780 |
the table. The other is we know so much more about what works 00:10:15.220 |
and what doesn't work. And so lockdowns don't work if you know, 00:10:19.880 |
if they ever did, they, they, they, we now know, looking at 00:10:23.920 |
from what different states did last year, that they don't make 00:10:27.980 |
a difference. So there's no reason to go back and look at the 00:10:29.200 |
data. So I think that's a big difference. And I think that's 00:10:31.540 |
a big difference. And I think that's a big difference. And I 00:10:32.500 |
think that's a big difference. And I think that's a big difference. 00:10:32.920 |
But also, I mean, I would even say on mass, it should be 00:10:33.880 |
wait, do we know that? I mean, it's I think so. Are we sure of 00:10:37.140 |
Yeah, I think so. Because the thing that the government 00:10:41.340 |
planners never take into account is that private citizens are 00:10:44.760 |
going to adjust their behavior in both directions. So in 00:10:47.860 |
Florida, they didn't have mandates, but people who are at 00:10:50.700 |
risk took, you know, extreme precautions, they would either 00:10:53.740 |
lock themselves down or be very fastidious about wearing a high 00:10:59.020 |
California, we had the most severe lockdowns, but they were 00:11:03.320 |
never really feasible. So there's 10 pages of exceptions, 00:11:05.560 |
people didn't really abide by them. And then on top of it, you 00:11:08.800 |
know, you have all these mass mandates. But if somebody wears 00:11:11.900 |
like a sock, loosely affixed to their face, does that really 00:11:15.860 |
protect them? You know, so, you know, people, if they're, if 00:11:20.300 |
they're not interested in complying with these mandates, 00:11:22.220 |
they do it in a half hearted way. I'm not convinced that the 00:11:24.620 |
mandates work in the first place. So the smart thing to do 00:11:28.840 |
here is just to have recommendations and let private 00:11:31.660 |
citizens decide what their response is going to be. We know 00:11:34.420 |
now so much more about the risks that we all face than we did a 00:11:39.220 |
year ago. And so just let private citizens decide. I mean, 00:11:42.880 |
I'd even say on vaccines, I mean, look, I'm pro vax, I don't 00:11:46.680 |
really understand where the anti vax people are coming from. But 00:11:50.740 |
I'm kind of done wasting my breath trying to convince people 00:11:53.440 |
to get vaccinated, you know, on this show, who don't want to get 00:11:56.800 |
vaccinated, you know, if they don't want to get vaccinated, 00:11:58.660 |
they want to send those doses to the developing world, where 00:12:02.140 |
Let me ask you, Chamath, do you do you agree with Sax's position 00:12:05.560 |
that listen, citizens are just going to have to make their own 00:12:07.720 |
decision here, leave everything open. And let's not have the 00:12:11.560 |
economy collapse again. And people, people are smart enough 00:12:14.740 |
to make their own decision. And is this framing of this is a 00:12:18.520 |
pandemic of the unvaccinated the correct framing? 00:12:20.740 |
Wow, I'm really of two minds. There's, there's the part of me 00:12:23.840 |
that says that you have to give people the right to make their 00:12:28.480 |
The problem is that in this specific case, there's so much 00:12:33.220 |
transmissibility. And as a result of that, how this thing 00:12:39.820 |
can mutate, that I think that public health has to take a 00:12:43.480 |
priority over any individual individuals rights in this very 00:12:52.240 |
because the delta variant is so transmission, transmissible, 00:12:56.380 |
people are going to have to lose some freedom. 00:12:58.300 |
And this is a very important point. And if you look at the 00:13:02.580 |
data from the CDC, it is so clear that the people who are in the 00:13:06.780 |
public health system, they are the ones who are going to have to 00:13:09.760 |
have to be vaccinated. And so the thing that I'm trying to do, 00:13:12.680 |
and I think that's a really important point, is that you're 00:13:14.540 |
going to have to give people the right to make their own decisions. 00:13:17.560 |
And that's the point that I was trying to make, that I'm trying 00:13:19.960 |
to make a point that I'm trying to make that the people who are 00:13:22.520 |
vaccinated, they are the ones who are going to have to be 00:13:24.240 |
vaccinated. And that's not going to be the case for all of us. 00:13:34.280 |
I think that it's unconscionable to be in a situation 00:13:38.760 |
where we are fighting basically a time function 00:13:48.560 |
basically will overcome all the vaccines we have, 00:14:00.660 |
And I don't like the fact that I'm susceptible to that 00:14:06.320 |
aren't doing it for medical or religious reasons. 00:14:08.580 |
They're just watching Fox News and just spouting off. 00:14:12.600 |
but we're also at risk from unvaccinated people 00:14:18.180 |
the Lambda variant, I think the wrong came from Peru. 00:14:28.040 |
I mean, this is why we need to send those unused doses 00:14:32.920 |
We now, I mean, there was a tweet about this recently. 00:14:47.200 |
even though we got off to a massive headstart, 00:14:49.160 |
going to eclipse us in terms of the percentage vaccinated. 00:14:53.600 |
Should teachers be, public school teachers be forced to be vaccinated? 00:15:04.200 |
or take buses, long haul buses, long haul trains? 00:15:08.540 |
And then third, should you be forced to show a vaccine card 00:15:14.060 |
to get on to go to sporting events or concerts? 00:15:19.380 |
So your personal freedom ends, you're going to be forced. 00:15:27.960 |
if you want to participate in a public construct, 00:15:32.720 |
or if you want to provide a publicly funded good, 00:15:43.200 |
Otherwise, work at a charter school where it's not required, 00:15:48.200 |
or drive your car, use a bicycle, or take an Uber. 00:16:00.160 |
because I don't like the idea of giving government the power 00:16:06.880 |
Well, what you might say, you could stay home 00:16:09.680 |
So is that reasonable that you don't get to go to a Warriors game 00:16:14.420 |
Yeah, I think, you know, the Warriors Stadium is is privately owned. 00:16:19.320 |
So I think the I think that private companies should be able to set up 00:16:22.720 |
their own rules for the benefit of their employees and customers. 00:16:35.960 |
They can't force it, but they can set the requirements for you to board 00:16:44.880 |
should teachers be forced to get a vaccine if they want to come in? 00:16:49.800 |
Because you said if they don't come to work in the fall 00:16:53.580 |
Well, why wouldn't they want to get a vaccine? 00:16:55.140 |
The whole debate with the teachers unions was that they wanted to be 00:16:57.840 |
at the front of the line for vaccines, which isn't an issue anymore 00:17:01.540 |
So I don't think that's a serious issue now requiring the kids to get vaccinated 00:17:05.340 |
is that that would be the real policy question. 00:17:11.080 |
Should teachers be forced to get the vaccine? 00:17:17.600 |
No, I mean, I think it's important to just to just, you know, pinpoint 00:17:21.500 |
that it's like forcing teachers to get vaccinated in order to, 00:17:26.960 |
I just want to highlight the precedent it sets, right? 00:17:30.420 |
Which is, you know, you just said you don't want the government 00:17:33.620 |
to tell people that they have to go get a shot in their arm. 00:17:38.960 |
that they don't want to get that shot, does that mean then that they, 00:17:42.340 |
you know, should lose their job as a public servant? 00:17:45.620 |
Well, I mean, no, I'm saying that, look, I think. 00:17:49.080 |
You said it's not a big deal, but like if there's one or two teachers 00:17:52.260 |
that say, you know what, it is a big deal to me, I have a different 00:17:54.420 |
I have a set of reasons why I don't want to get shot. 00:17:56.920 |
Those teachers, that's an assumption of risk. 00:17:58.920 |
I mean, if they've decided they're going to assume the risk, then, 00:18:02.120 |
you know, don't come crying to us when they get sick. 00:18:05.680 |
Well, the argument is that was your choice, the vector of exposure, right? 00:18:09.160 |
That they can potentially petri dishes as they could be that they get 00:18:12.040 |
they could be the vector that gets kids sick. 00:18:13.880 |
In all of these situations, there's an always a very 00:18:16.720 |
obvious and justifiable exemption for religious and medical reasons 00:18:22.880 |
to not be vaccinated, not just for this, but for anything else. 00:18:26.540 |
So I struggle to understand why all of a sudden people who don't have a fucking clue about science 00:18:33.300 |
are all of a sudden these armchair scientists who can judge whether or not a vaccine is appropriate for them, 00:18:41.160 |
where they probably already gave vaccines of all other kinds to their kids and themselves. 00:18:46.460 |
They probably take all other kinds of advice from doctors. 00:18:49.620 |
But on this one specific issue, they narrowly say, you know what? 00:18:53.040 |
I'm an expert enough because I'm watching this television show. 00:19:01.880 |
Everybody, barring some, you know, highly specific medical condition 00:19:06.800 |
that renders you ineligible should be getting vaccinated. 00:19:09.880 |
So I agree with you about what the right answer is. 00:19:12.800 |
But I do think that when it comes to government, it's 00:19:16.300 |
it's a more complicated question about how much power you give to government 00:19:19.340 |
to force people to engage in, you know, behavior they don't want to engage in. 00:19:26.460 |
I mean, I think that's a very difficult question. 00:19:29.460 |
We'll agree on private organizations, but we do have to make some decisions on public transportation 00:19:34.460 |
and we do have to make decisions about teachers and we're going to have to make decisions on students. 00:19:38.460 |
So could you bench the teachers who or otherwise penalize them who are not vaccinated? 00:19:46.460 |
You know, there are some times where, you know, a cop or a teacher is put in a, you know, not in the classroom, not on the beat for whatever reasons, 00:19:56.420 |
Other reasons. Could you just say, listen, if you're not going to get vaccinated, 00:19:59.460 |
you're going to not be in the classroom, you're not going to you'll be a remote teacher 00:20:04.260 |
and we're just going to create two classes here. 00:20:05.960 |
I don't think I don't I don't think there are many teachers who don't want to get vaccinated, but. 00:20:11.380 |
But I look, I think the virus is everywhere now, it's just endemic. 00:20:16.880 |
And so to single out like one particular group and say, you're going to lose your job. 00:20:20.420 |
You down on your opinion. So you're saying teachers should not be forced. 00:20:26.380 |
I mean, if they work at a private school, the private school could definitely require it. 00:20:31.760 |
Look, I think you're saying I think it's a really good thing. 00:20:34.380 |
I think it's a really complicated question because I think there are clear public health benefits to everyone getting vaccinated. 00:20:39.920 |
But I also don't really like empowering government to force you because, look, it's like everything else. 00:20:46.420 |
The government may be right in this particular case, but what else is it going to do with that power? 00:20:50.540 |
And, you know, I don't like giving government that power. 00:20:56.340 |
It's not I would I would probably err on the side of not letting government force people to do it. 00:21:05.920 |
Chamath forced the teachers to get vaccinated or not. 00:21:10.100 |
And the reason is because these kids are already being left behind even when school is functioning normally. 00:21:27.800 |
We are not doing what we need to do as it is in the absence of a pandemic. 00:21:34.100 |
And now you introduce a reason for folks to basically check out and not appear. 00:21:39.420 |
I what do you guys guess how how many years were lost in these 15 months when kids were at home? 00:21:50.600 |
Two years, two and a half years, three years. 00:21:53.060 |
It's also this psychological scarring, depending on what grade they are. 00:22:03.260 |
Yeah, I mean, Chamath Chamath is a good point, which is that if that that when government is the employer requiring it on their employees because it leads to better outcomes for that institution, that is a little different than government just mandating that you Jason Calacanis private citizen have to go get a shot in your arm. 00:22:25.980 |
So there is a slight difference there, like military, for instance, right? 00:22:29.360 |
The military probably wants to vaccinate everybody so that if they need to be ready for a combat situation, they're not like, you know, incapacitated by an outbreak of COVID. 00:22:41.100 |
So I can I think they're, you know, we're getting into shades of gray here from a public policy perspective. 00:22:46.980 |
You know, I don't want teachers missing school because, you know, for weeks at a time because they didn't do the obvious thing, getting the COVID vaccine. 00:22:55.740 |
So, look, I think there are some really good public policy arguments there. 00:22:59.440 |
But I think, again, the the one place where I'd say government is clearly overstepping is if they just said, listen, you private citizen, not an employee of the government has to go get vaccinated as much as I would like everyone to to to get vaccinated. 00:23:15.360 |
I don't want to give government that kind of power. 00:23:16.980 |
President Biden could legally require military members to get vaccinated, but so far he has declined to do so. 00:23:32.740 |
SACS is kind of close, but is a little concerned. 00:23:37.280 |
I mean, another way to frame it is that there is a new qualification for a job like, you know, there's qualification to be in the military. 00:23:44.540 |
You have to have certain physical capabilities. 00:23:54.920 |
Your inability to fight or throw a punch would be. 00:24:01.160 |
But trust me, I would be great in the military. 00:24:14.300 |
There's the I think the reason there's sensitivity to it is because there are existing teachers in jobs and then you're telling them that in order to keep your job, you have to go get a vaccine. 00:24:25.080 |
If we were to have zero teachers today and we were starting a public school system from scratch and you said, here's one of the qualifying criteria to be a school teacher, you have to have an education degree. 00:24:35.280 |
You have to have maybe a master's degree in education. 00:24:37.780 |
You have to have appropriate qualifications and training and certification. 00:24:40.780 |
Oh, and by the way, you also have to have a vaccine. 00:24:43.200 |
If that becomes a criteria, I think people find it less offensive. 00:24:47.160 |
It's the fact that we are now saying that there are people that are being told that you have to go get a shot in order to keep your job. 00:24:54.420 |
And that's the complicating thing that I think people are trying to wade through. 00:24:57.960 |
I don't think that if you were to say like, look, it's obvious that the qualifying criteria to be in the military is you have to be able to run and do push ups or whatever the criteria might be. 00:25:05.500 |
But if you impose that on people that were already in the military and then you're going to kick a bunch of them out, people would be up in arms about it. 00:25:15.380 |
Yeah. And that's the concern I think that arises with imposing these kind of personal body criteria. 00:25:24.260 |
You know, specific jobs when people are already employed in that job. 00:25:27.380 |
And it's there's there's absolutely no answer, right? 00:25:30.960 |
Like if you're going to do it, you're going to have incredible backlash and trouble and pain. 00:25:35.060 |
And if you were to and we're not in a circumstance where we can build these organizations and these institutions from scratch. 00:25:40.380 |
Look, there's a lot of social issues where, you know, particularly on the liberal side, people do not want the government prohibiting them from getting certain medical treatment. 00:25:55.100 |
And so, you know, I think that's a big issue. 00:43:54.100 |
And I mean, I can't believe we're still having that conversation a year later. 00:43:58.200 |
Can I, before we move on to the next topic, can I read the best comment from Sax's tweet? 00:44:05.780 |
So Sax's tweet, "Just because an opinion is wrong doesn't mean it should be censored. 00:44:10.360 |
Just because a behavior is harmful doesn't mean it should be prohibited. 00:44:13.340 |
Just because something is beneficial doesn't mean it should be required." 00:44:16.740 |
The best response goes to Distantly Social Rumple, whose full name is @Wendy. 00:44:24.080 |
@Wendy_Scherk, who said, "This message brought to you by the generic self-serving platitude 00:44:31.360 |
We now return you to your regularly scheduled episode of the bland soap opera with the Pablum 00:44:38.700 |
Well, yeah, look, there's an element of truth to that, which is I almost didn't tweet 00:44:43.960 |
it because I thought it was too much of a platitude. 00:44:45.880 |
But the fact that people on the other side got so triggered by it shows why it was actually 00:44:54.060 |
They think that if you're calling for any modicum of freedom or return to normalcy, 00:45:03.660 |
I mean, they want to stay in this world of zeroest COVID restrictions forever. 00:45:09.680 |
We're 45 minutes into COVID, so we got to move on. 00:45:12.220 |
But I think if this is in the influenza plus or minus 100% zone, we got to pick a number 00:45:20.440 |
where we decide we're moving forward as a society. 00:45:24.040 |
I mean, local communities can make decisions if they have outbreaks, but I kind of think 00:45:27.140 |
if this is within, you know, 2x of our yearly deaths from, you know, influenza and just 00:45:34.120 |
the normal cold, I think we move forward as best we can. 00:45:39.800 |
I think just real quick before we move away from this, I really want to just highlight 00:45:43.200 |
the DeepMind announcement from this morning because I think it's actually quite relevant 00:45:46.760 |
to the tracking of variants and what's been going on. 00:45:50.840 |
So this morning, you know, DeepMind, which published AlphaFast, which is a very, very 00:45:54.020 |
powerful, we talked about this a few episodes ago. 00:45:58.680 |
It's an AI arm owned by Google and they basically took protein structure and tried to predict 00:46:04.860 |
what a protein looks like physically as a function of the DNA or RNA that codes the 00:46:12.820 |
And so again, like when you have a string of amino acids, they combine and they fold 00:46:18.100 |
And that's the shape of the molecule that we call the protein. 00:46:24.000 |
Very hard times understanding how genetic code translates into physical structure of 00:46:29.120 |
protein, which would allow us to predict what that protein can then do in the body. 00:46:33.140 |
So this morning, DeepMind incredibly published a database with the predicted structure of 00:46:39.620 |
every protein in the human body and in 10 other species using this capability that they 00:46:47.060 |
And so, you know, what this means is we now have a physical model of every protein that 00:46:56.080 |
And that model would allow us to basically now predict what that protein does, how it 00:47:01.080 |
does it and how certain drugs can bind to those proteins, and how certain drugs can 00:47:05.280 |
affect those proteins and how we can alter human health by making new molecules or adjusting 00:47:12.220 |
the genetic code to change the shape of those proteins in specific and targeted ways. 00:47:16.240 |
So it's an incredible data set that was just published. 00:47:19.360 |
It's almost like, you know, releasing the Rosetta Stone, in my opinion. 00:47:23.980 |
In terms of we now have this ability to translate human genetic code into the physical form 00:47:28.020 |
of the molecules that run our body and do things in our body. 00:47:32.840 |
And they said that they're going to publish this proteome database and scale it for all 00:47:35.860 |
other species of life that we have the sort of data set around for which they expect will 00:47:41.260 |
achieve over 100 million unique proteins in this database over the coming months freely 00:47:47.220 |
And let me just explain and I know I'm on a monologue here. 00:47:52.500 |
But let me just explain why this is relevant. 00:47:53.980 |
So the Delta variant, what it is, is that you know, the SARS CoV-2 RNA sequence is about 00:48:01.720 |
10% of those are about 3000 base pairs make up the spike protein, which is the protein 00:48:06.320 |
at the tip of the COVID virus, the coronavirus that gets into the cells. 00:48:11.300 |
And you know, for every 10 people that are infected with Coronavirus, there's about one 00:48:16.400 |
nucleoside mutation, one of those base pairs changes, and the virus evolves. 00:48:23.980 |
And so we're going to look at the genetic code, and we're like, Oh, here's the changes 00:48:39.520 |
But we could have with this capability from AlphaFold predicted what changes make the 00:48:45.000 |
spike protein do a better job binding to human ACE2 receptors on the cells and getting into 00:48:50.140 |
cells and what other changes could be made in the whole genome. 00:48:53.980 |
And so we're going to look at the DNA of the SARS CoV-2 virus that could cause this virus 00:48:57.280 |
to be more transmissible, more deadly, all these sorts of factors, because we can now 00:49:01.580 |
estimate the physical form of that protein by changing the base pair. 00:49:06.560 |
And so this tool that was released today, I think highlights that over the next decade, 00:49:10.600 |
these sorts of things that are going on with viruses mutating and variants occurring that 00:49:15.180 |
are affecting our population can be better estimated and tracked digitally. 00:49:20.120 |
And it gives us the ability to start to prepare tools and defense mechanisms against them, 00:49:23.980 |
with new drugs and new variant models and new vaccines, well ahead of the Oh, my God, 00:49:31.640 |
Let's clean up the mess kind of in the future. 00:49:36.240 |
Would they have been released this, David, if it hadn't been for COVID coming out? 00:49:42.440 |
Do you think DeepMind just pivoted their entire group up because they have about 1000 people 00:49:48.140 |
And by the way, they pay something in the order of six or 700,000 a year on average. 00:49:52.500 |
And there's many people there who are getting paid. 00:49:53.980 |
They're getting paid millions of dollars a year. 00:49:55.800 |
So just think about the scale of what Google is spending on this. 00:49:58.840 |
You guys know that I probably shifted a large number of people to work on this. 00:50:03.260 |
You guys know that I have long deep roots at Google. 00:50:06.480 |
And I will tell you that the value system of people there, you know, the press and the 00:50:13.640 |
But I think that the value system of people there drove them to realize the importance 00:50:18.420 |
of this work that they're doing with AlphaFold. 00:50:20.220 |
And it is important for humanity and it's important for the health broadly of people.