back to indexIs International Diversification Worth It?
Chapters
0:0 intro
1:56 Global stock performance.
8:36 Bank accounts vs. money markets.
11:32 Home ownership planning
16:47 Pre-paying mortgages
23:7 When to get a financial advisor.
00:00:12.400 |
Our email here is askthecompoundshow@gmail.com. 00:00:20.020 |
Today's show is sponsored by Bird Dogs again. 00:00:22.440 |
Birddogs.com/atc for Ask the Compound, obviously. 00:00:29.880 |
This week, Michael and I took a trip to Florida 00:00:34.080 |
Everyone there is in their stuffy suits and dresses 00:00:38.240 |
Michael and I are in Hawaiian shirts and bird dog shorts. 00:00:45.880 |
I don't know if I can pull off the word fresh anymore 00:00:50.960 |
but that's the only-- - They're looking fresh. 00:00:56.320 |
So the great thing about wearing these in Florida 00:01:02.440 |
So Michael and I had them at the beachside restaurant, 00:01:16.820 |
They're comfortable, they're stylish, they're versatile. 00:01:27.300 |
it's kind of almost a complaint about bird dogs, 00:01:37.100 |
They look really cool. - You can't be a hipster 00:01:46.900 |
- All right, lots of questions this week again. 00:02:02.180 |
but how does the data look for global ex-U.S. performance? 00:02:13.140 |
So I love to show the win probability of the stock market, 00:02:29.160 |
the U.S. stock market has experienced positive returns 00:02:38.380 |
and we're talking 88% of returns are positive. 00:02:43.220 |
And then 100% if you go out to a 20-year basis. 00:02:47.820 |
We're not taking into account taxes or fees or inflation, 00:02:50.580 |
but still, that's a pretty darn good track record, right? 00:02:57.240 |
So my least favorite description of the stock market 00:03:02.660 |
Usually they say it when they lose money or it's down, 00:03:09.360 |
the worse your odds are because the house has an edge. 00:03:14.460 |
but still, if I stay and play 72 hours straight, 00:03:18.440 |
and the house is probably going to win unless I get lucky. 00:03:25.520 |
the better your odds are of walking away with a gain. 00:03:28.720 |
Now, this doesn't guarantee the magnitude of a gain, right? 00:03:31.480 |
And I can't guarantee that these exact figures 00:03:35.520 |
I worked with plenty of huge institutional investors 00:03:38.360 |
and they are obsessed with quarterly returns. 00:03:40.640 |
What's our quarterly return against the benchmark, 00:03:52.000 |
So I think the ability to think and act for the longterm 00:03:57.600 |
Patience is the biggest equalizer in all of finance. 00:04:18.480 |
Again, monthly, one year, five, 10, 15, 20 years, 00:04:29.760 |
One year, S&P since 1970 is up 80% of the time. 00:04:44.040 |
10 year returns, you actually have a better win percentage 00:04:48.800 |
S&P is up 95% of the time over 10 year periods since 1970. 00:04:58.300 |
So I think some people might be surprised to hear this 00:05:02.860 |
have done so much better over the past 15 years or so. 00:05:06.380 |
Obviously, again, probability versus magnitude, 00:05:15.420 |
And is international diversification worth it? 00:05:17.580 |
U.S. stocks make up 60% of global market cap. 00:05:21.300 |
We get 40% of our revenue from the S&P overseas. 00:05:28.820 |
have been better for the U.S. going back to 1970. 00:05:30.500 |
U.S. stocks are up 10.5% per year in that time. 00:05:35.380 |
But most of that outperformance has come since 2013, 00:05:40.380 |
basically, so I looked at this for a blog post recently. 00:05:44.180 |
From 1970 to 2012, annual returns were 9.7% per year 00:05:48.140 |
for U.S. stocks, 9.6% for international stocks. 00:05:53.620 |
so all their outperformance has come since then. 00:06:10.060 |
Late 1980s, there was a massive outperformance 00:06:18.180 |
and then the latest period was just a really long cycle 00:06:20.260 |
of outperformance for U.S., which is 2008 to 2021. 00:06:24.120 |
So I understand why some U.S.-based investors 00:06:29.740 |
you're probably gonna be fine over the long term. 00:06:35.900 |
from Credit Suisse, their year-end returns yearbook, 00:06:46.660 |
but U.S. was 15% of global stock market in 1900. 00:06:50.500 |
Now they've eaten the rest of the world like Pac-Man, 00:06:55.100 |
so it makes sense that we focus so much of our time 00:07:04.700 |
I don't think they're gonna become 120% of global market cap. 00:07:10.780 |
But what's to say another country or countries 00:07:17.180 |
right, if the U.S. didn't become a little smaller 00:07:19.340 |
and these other countries didn't come up a little more. 00:07:24.580 |
They were, you know, like the fall of the Roman Empire here. 00:07:27.820 |
It wouldn't shock me if some other country came up. 00:07:29.520 |
So I think that's the whole point of diversification. 00:07:31.260 |
It's not perfect, but I think spreading your bets 00:07:39.100 |
even if it doesn't boost returns all that much. 00:07:46.620 |
not to brag, but we have a pretty big audience, 00:07:57.300 |
is like what his portfolio looked like versus like mine, 00:08:00.100 |
right, and he had quite a lot of U.S. exposure, actually, 00:08:06.300 |
he had companies and things that I'd never even heard of 00:08:09.700 |
So that's something that's kind of interesting. 00:08:13.140 |
Most other countries have the same home bias that we have, 00:08:22.340 |
and putting it in Apple and hoping for the best. 00:08:24.740 |
I think that's the point of spreading your bets globally 00:08:28.360 |
is that I think it's more of a risk reducer than anything. 00:08:36.100 |
- Okay, up next we have a question from Jeff. 00:08:38.840 |
Should I quit using my bank that pays 0.1% interest 00:08:44.460 |
and start using a money market fund that earns 4.5%? 00:08:47.860 |
My wife and I have good job security and higher education 00:08:50.740 |
and usually invest extra cash or spend it on our young kids 00:08:53.780 |
rather than sit on a bloated emergency fund earning nothing. 00:08:58.380 |
However, 4.5% is a lot more attractive than 0.1% 00:09:11.060 |
No one, and I mean, no one should be earning 0.1% 00:09:15.540 |
This should be illegal for banks to pay this little. 00:09:17.700 |
Anything under 4% right now is pretty terrible. 00:09:21.000 |
You should be earning somewhere in the four to 5% range, 00:09:23.340 |
low fives probably at the high end for emergency savings. 00:09:26.180 |
So anything, online savings account, money market, 00:09:30.460 |
anything like that is paying four to 5% right now 00:09:32.700 |
'cause the Fed has jacked up short-term rates. 00:09:35.260 |
If a bank is ripping you off and for whatever reason 00:09:50.740 |
So John, do a chart on of the three-month T-bills. 00:09:53.260 |
So this is since the start of the turn of the century. 00:09:58.740 |
and things like savings accounts or money markets. 00:10:05.540 |
The tech bust happened and rates fell off a cliff, 00:10:07.140 |
getting back down to like 1% for a few years. 00:10:19.060 |
Then we slowly but surely go back up a little bit, 00:10:26.680 |
Wile E. Coyote style in 2020 for the pandemic. 00:10:33.980 |
but then we sort of level off for a while at zero. 00:10:41.020 |
but definitely get your cash yields off the floor. 00:10:53.240 |
I think just getting off the 0% is the biggest thing there. 00:10:56.580 |
And then probably it's more trouble than it's worth. 00:11:05.540 |
but I wasn't happy with the process to get me there. 00:11:08.820 |
And it involved a bank collapsing in the process. 00:11:15.420 |
for more than like three months, unlike Duncan's, 00:11:26.460 |
This is the easiest question we'll get today. 00:11:31.260 |
- Okay, up next we have a question from Connor. 00:11:39.020 |
So I have about $230,000 in student loan debt. 00:11:42.020 |
However, I'm pursuing public student loan forgiveness, 00:11:45.420 |
which will forgive my loans in about 6.5 years. 00:11:48.820 |
- I know that one because I've read a lot about that. 00:11:51.420 |
We're in the process of purchasing our first home 00:11:55.300 |
after being pre-approved for a $600,000 mortgage. 00:12:02.540 |
that pays about four times my current income. 00:12:08.740 |
are great given that they don't require a down payment. 00:12:15.500 |
or should I just try to pay extra on the mortgage 00:12:19.240 |
We plan to live in this house for five to seven years 00:12:25.940 |
John, do a chart on here of student loan debt. 00:12:35.460 |
but they make up 14% of the balance of all student loans. 00:12:38.940 |
Now, if you go to 100K, 6% of borrowers owe 100K or more, 00:12:42.820 |
but that makes up 1/3 of the entire debt load. 00:12:48.220 |
but you see these stories about people who went into debt 00:12:52.420 |
and maybe they got, like, a philosophy degree 00:12:55.380 |
Most of those people went to med school or law school 00:13:02.500 |
then you got some really bad advice, unfortunately. 00:13:04.940 |
- Or they got an MFA that they really didn't need. 00:13:07.580 |
- There you go, yeah, something you didn't need. 00:13:12.400 |
but for a doctor, considering the high income potential, 00:13:18.500 |
It sounds like you're not gonna be paying it anyway, right? 00:13:24.500 |
the idea is if you work for some sort of non-profit 00:13:26.940 |
or the government has to kind of sign off on the place 00:13:32.660 |
and then your student loans will be forgiven. 00:13:34.100 |
So that's not a bad deal for that high of a debt load. 00:13:37.940 |
So that sounds like you've got that figured out, 00:13:46.140 |
is banks know doctors will have a high income, 00:13:51.420 |
because they were in residency and not earning very much, 00:13:54.900 |
So banks know that this is probably money good, 00:13:57.780 |
and they're willing to offer this low down payment 00:14:04.860 |
'cause they know they're working with someone 00:14:13.580 |
since that's what they were pre-approved for. 00:14:17.140 |
Let's be honest, everyone goes to the high end of the range. 00:14:19.580 |
No one's gonna go to the low end of the range. 00:14:26.260 |
which is ouch, ouch, ouch, 7% mortgage rates. 00:14:29.440 |
That's a monthly payment of around $3,900 and change, right? 00:14:34.920 |
If you put your full 35,000 in savings as a down payment, 00:14:38.260 |
now we're looking at monthly payments of more like 3,750. 00:14:41.220 |
So you'd say like $240 a month, something like that. 00:14:44.680 |
I don't think the down payment makes sense here. 00:14:46.980 |
It would only be like a 5% or 6% down payment anyway 00:14:49.500 |
with that much money if you're going to 600K. 00:14:56.300 |
closing costs and moving costs and inspection fees 00:15:00.640 |
I would hang on to that money for the flexibility of it. 00:15:04.460 |
and you wanna put it back into the mortgage at some point, 00:15:06.300 |
you can still do that and do a principal payment. 00:15:08.700 |
I guess the biggest consequence of not putting much down 00:15:14.920 |
then you're gonna have to eat that loss probably. 00:15:19.660 |
gets wiped out fairly quickly if prices fall as well. 00:15:22.020 |
So I prefer the flexibility of that savings on hand 00:15:26.580 |
especially if it's such a small down payment. 00:15:31.860 |
pay it down later once your income gets a little higher. 00:15:33.900 |
My only other comment here is be careful on the temptation 00:15:37.380 |
Obviously you've been living like a resident for a while now 00:15:46.380 |
- Can they go like two times their standard of living? 00:15:51.820 |
just because you're used to living like a resident, right? 00:15:56.300 |
I would build in like slowly, but surely work into it 00:16:09.580 |
It's all about the finances surrounding young doctors 00:16:12.540 |
Highly recommended for someone in your situation 00:16:14.300 |
understand student loans and investing and personal finance 00:16:16.660 |
and the intricacies of being a doctor and dealing with that. 00:16:21.780 |
I cannot imagine the amount of hard work that is involved 00:16:23.780 |
in going through med school and getting a residency 00:16:37.180 |
I pretend like the last season didn't happen, 00:16:40.860 |
- Yeah, and Zach Braff was on the "Rich Roll" podcast 00:17:00.820 |
"Not to brag, my wife and I acquired a $1 million, 00:17:19.660 |
"we can afford to pay off the mortgage in full. 00:17:25.600 |
"We are 29 and 30 and combined annual income of $300,000. 00:17:29.640 |
"We have discussed the possibility of starting a family 00:17:31.720 |
"in the next five years and would need to increase 00:17:35.000 |
"the potential addition/additions to our family. 00:17:40.520 |
"We would also want to move to Cambridge, Massachusetts. 00:17:44.380 |
"Would it make more sense to pay off our current mortgage 00:17:54.800 |
- All right, yeah, easily wins the order for not to brag. 00:17:59.220 |
in both financial planning and the Boston real estate market. 00:18:07.660 |
- So Ben, I was in Boston, I guess last year, 00:18:12.680 |
the real estate market or the rental market there 00:18:14.800 |
is a little pricey, so I want to hear your thoughts. 00:18:18.120 |
John, first throw up the Case-Shiller of Boston. 00:18:27.240 |
Boston has fallen behind nationally in the last few years. 00:18:31.200 |
I'm sure there are neighborhoods that have done much better, 00:18:32.680 |
but what do you think about this being a Boston guy? 00:18:36.160 |
- Yeah, it's fallen behind, but it is still not great, Bob. 00:18:42.420 |
So yeah, number one, he starts with not to brag. 00:18:47.060 |
I see you, and frankly, if anyone is not aware 00:18:59.740 |
My friend's cousin is Ben Affleck's sister's brother-in-law. 00:19:03.020 |
That's actually not true, but my fellow Bostonians 00:19:06.480 |
The last reason, this is the easiest damn question 00:19:19.800 |
it's still good to bounce it off an objective third party. 00:19:28.680 |
- For one, yeah, I'm in a similar boat as Chris. 00:19:30.920 |
So like me and my soonish-to-be fiancee, not to brag, 00:19:34.360 |
at least I think, we rent this charming trash heap 00:19:47.720 |
not only can I not afford to buy in Charlestown or Cambridge, 00:19:53.360 |
stuck to the bottom of my shoe in Medford, all right? 00:19:59.520 |
which I assume is locked in for the long run, 00:20:01.200 |
as the best freaking investment he has ever made in his life. 00:20:10.060 |
on a thousand square foot apartment at a million dollars, 00:20:12.800 |
he's gonna have to get like what, $4,500 a month, 00:20:33.120 |
- I would challenge Chris to a duel to the death 00:20:38.160 |
And he's gotta cherish it-- - Whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on. 00:20:42.540 |
- Obviously, these people are as late 20s, early 30s, 00:20:47.000 |
I don't know if it was an inheritance or stock options 00:20:52.580 |
they have the ability to either pay down this mortgage, 00:21:01.800 |
either way, they're probably going to be fine. 00:21:08.140 |
are you overextending yourself in Massachusetts real estate 00:21:26.160 |
it sounds like the vision for the starting a family 00:21:41.720 |
Yeah, they have some time to wait things out. 00:21:53.980 |
like, yeah, it'd be great to rent that other one out 00:22:03.860 |
who's like spilling natty lights on your hardwood floor 00:22:07.860 |
10 months later, you're gonna have to find another one 00:22:10.340 |
Like, it's not like as easy as passive income, you know? 00:22:19.600 |
I've been there, I've been to Harvard's campus before. 00:22:21.700 |
I thought that that was just like a neighborhood of Boston. 00:22:26.560 |
It's where I would want to raise a family, frankly. 00:22:29.380 |
But yeah, like back to the like living situation, 00:22:31.980 |
like despite the liquidity, like if I were him, 00:22:39.220 |
and then, you know, park the liquidity in a T-bill, 00:22:44.900 |
and then, you know, put the rest in like a money market 00:22:53.700 |
- Either way, they're in a pretty good position, 00:22:58.540 |
is especially when you can get five in a T-bill. 00:23:09.700 |
- You're not bitter about the Boston real estate market, 00:23:15.580 |
Well, I just think like, yeah, as you would say, 00:23:17.900 |
you could drive a truck through the bid-ask spread. 00:23:23.980 |
So it's just, yeah, it's a stalemate right now. 00:23:44.620 |
Also on this, this is like a very nubile question, 00:23:58.040 |
- You see people always kind of like say one or the other, 00:24:11.520 |
I don't think there's any reason as an 18 year old 00:24:16.120 |
but maybe you can talk about like how to better your life 00:24:22.260 |
but there's just, yeah, financial advisor, no. 00:24:32.440 |
I'd say that she really just needs like a few ETFs 00:24:35.000 |
and maybe a good CPA, but I get this one a lot, 00:24:51.520 |
and there's 85 year olds who don't need an advisor. 00:25:03.200 |
Like, I don't even have time to deal with this anymore. 00:25:07.340 |
I don't even know how I'm gonna deal with all this, 00:25:10.600 |
starting a small business, equity comp payday, 00:25:13.400 |
inheritance, like really any kind of like OMFG moment. 00:25:16.720 |
- It's a life event or your financial situation 00:25:21.720 |
or you just don't have the time to deal with it 00:25:26.440 |
It's, yeah, you said it, outsource your brain power, 00:25:29.800 |
your time, and or your anxiety to a third party. 00:25:36.040 |
It's just, it's not a dollar or like an age threshold. 00:25:55.880 |
By the way, Jesse Eisenberg is more Mark Zuckerberg to me 00:26:05.680 |
was more about like giving his daughter wisdom 00:26:25.280 |
then either your family isn't enough of a priority 00:26:28.520 |
or they don't have any capacity, which both aren't great. 00:26:33.400 |
Option two, there are hybrid human robo advisors that exist. 00:26:43.200 |
Like maybe they need to talk to someone once in a while, 00:26:49.360 |
And if she wants to start with a hundred bucks, 00:26:53.360 |
who oversee that platform would be happy to chat with her. 00:27:07.040 |
a great beginner investment book is where I'd start. 00:27:12.360 |
the intelligent investor on her own just for fun. 00:27:14.840 |
But maybe be like, "Hey, money is really important in life. 00:27:23.760 |
and maybe she even chooses to invest a hundred bucks. 00:27:34.760 |
Unless they have a complex financial situation 00:27:44.680 |
some good habits if they haven't gotten them yet. 00:27:50.520 |
- Yeah, another good option, have 'em watch "The Compound." 00:28:03.800 |
like what do you think is the best beginner book 00:28:06.520 |
Like I think of Morgan Housel's "The Psychology of Money." 00:28:12.840 |
And frankly, like I think like you and Majuli's books 00:28:15.320 |
are maybe like closer to 201 instead of 101, you know? 00:28:18.400 |
- Yeah, that's when you're like in the working world. 00:28:21.560 |
you still have a lot of this stuff ahead of you. 00:28:24.320 |
But yeah, that's the cool thing is these days, 00:28:26.720 |
I'm guessing most kids don't even like books anymore. 00:28:28.720 |
They want podcasts, or they want, you know, blog posts, 00:28:32.400 |
or they probably want something that's easier to digest. 00:28:35.320 |
So maybe that's the way to get 'em is, you know, 00:28:43.920 |
is just getting interested in this stuff from a young age 00:28:46.080 |
to kind of understand that someday this money stuff 00:29:02.920 |
- I think "The Big Short" probably lost more money 00:29:04.720 |
than people lost in the housing market in 2008 00:29:06.940 |
because people thought they could short stuff 00:29:17.120 |
And better understand and put on animal spirits 00:29:20.280 |
every Wednesday morning when you're driving them to school. 00:29:22.840 |
- Yeah, and pay her a hundred bucks to do it too. 00:29:36.760 |
you were looking through your DraftKings profile, 00:29:41.160 |
I just wanna make sure we're right-sizing those positions 00:29:53.880 |
I would say overall, things are going weak to quite weak. 00:29:57.600 |
I mean, my performance is correlated to Boston sports, 00:30:03.400 |
- So you have a home country bias in your gambling? 00:30:08.040 |
And I mean, the Celtics, they just can't get it done. 00:30:14.160 |
I could see the $50 series bet that I had on them 00:30:18.960 |
- At least you're right-sizing your positions though. 00:30:31.180 |
I took Jon Rahm to win the Masters at plus 850, 00:30:34.040 |
meaning if you put a hundred bucks, you get paid out 850. 00:30:45.760 |
- That's why you don't put your whole paychecks 00:31:01.360 |
Maybe 9% is in individual stocks like Nvidia, 00:31:04.080 |
which again, I put a thousand into Nvidia in 2017. 00:31:09.100 |
'cause I'm just pissed about how little I put into it. 00:31:25.560 |
I will say I'm taking the nuggets to win the championship. 00:31:27.740 |
Jokic doing this stuff from Three Point Line. 00:31:31.100 |
Yeah, they're probably gonna sell it a premium, 00:31:35.140 |
Remember, email us, askthecompoundshow@gmail.com.