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Is International Diversification Worth It?


Chapters

0:0 intro
1:56 Global stock performance.
8:36 Bank accounts vs. money markets.
11:32 Home ownership planning
16:47 Pre-paying mortgages
23:7 When to get a financial advisor.

Transcript

(beeping) - Welcome back, Ask the Compound. Our email here is askthecompoundshow@gmail.com. We love all the questions. We love everyone in the live chats. Today's show is sponsored by Bird Dogs again. Birddogs.com/atc for Ask the Compound, obviously. Promo code ATC to get a free Tumblr. This week, Michael and I took a trip to Florida for a conference.

Everyone there is in their stuffy suits and dresses and business attire. Michael and I are in Hawaiian shirts and bird dog shorts. I'm wearing a pair of bird dogs right now. Can you see these, Duncan? Look at, eh, eh. - Yeah, looks good. - The white ones. I don't know if I can pull off the word fresh anymore since I'm an early '40s dad, but that's the only-- - They're looking fresh.

- They're very fresh. They're white. I love 'em. So the great thing about wearing these in Florida is it was like 88 degrees. It was very hot, and they're comfortable. So Michael and I had them at the beachside restaurant, you know, having a nice little drink, having a little lunch.

- Miami Vice. - Yeah, walking around the beach. They're versatile. You can wear them anywhere. I wore mine in the pool. It's great. They're comfortable, they're stylish, they're versatile. Go to, remember, birddogs.com/atc and get that free Tumblr if you want for putting the promo code ATC. - Can I just throw in a quick, it's kind of almost a complaint about bird dogs, is I feel like they make me look too cool.

I'm like, can I pull these off? I don't know if I can pull these. Like joggers, like I've never worn joggers. They look really cool. - You can't be a hipster anymore if you look too cool, right? - Yeah, I mean, yeah. It's hard. - I think it's-- - It's a struggle.

- It's okay. You moved out of Brooklyn to Connecticut. I think we're gonna allow it. - Yeah, okay, yeah, it makes sense. - All right, lots of questions this week again. I think our inbox each week is getting a little bit fuller and fuller. We're not getting exponential growth yet, but we got a ton to get to, so let's do it.

- Okay, up first today we have, Ben showed the positive returns for U.S. equities over the long term, but how does the data look for global ex-U.S. performance? - Fair question. - Do you think, is this a gotcha? Are they trying to get you? Or are they just curious?

- Maybe, well, I don't know if it, I don't know, that could just be, I hope it's curiosity. So I love to show the win probability of the stock market, depending on your time horizon. John, throw this chart up. I did this going back to 1926, and it just shows one month, one year, three, five, seven, 10, 15, 20 years.

What's your probability of seeing a gain? Okay, so since 1926, the U.S. stock market has experienced positive returns 56% of the time on a daily basis. That's not that great, right? 63% of the time on a monthly basis. Go out to five years, and we're talking 88% of returns are positive.

10 years, it's more like 95%. And then 100% if you go out to a 20-year basis. Obviously, the usual caveats apply here. We're not taking into account taxes or fees or inflation, but still, that's a pretty darn good track record, right? There's never been a rolling 20-year period where U.S.

stocks have been down. So my least favorite description of the stock market is that it's a casino. I hate this. I hate when people say that. Usually they say it when they lose money or it's down, or a stock goes down a lot. Not even close. The longer you play in a casino, the worse your odds are because the house has an edge.

So the longer you, I have a pretty good blackjack system, but still, if I stay and play 72 hours straight, eventually I'm going to lose, and the house is probably going to win unless I get lucky. The stock market is completely different. It's the opposite of a casino. The longer you stay in the stock market, the better your odds are of walking away with a gain.

Now, this doesn't guarantee the magnitude of a gain, right? And I can't guarantee that these exact figures will work going forward, but that's pretty good, right? I worked with plenty of huge institutional investors over the years, and they are obsessed with quarterly returns. What's our quarterly return against the benchmark, against our peers?

And some of these endowments and foundations have perpetual time horizons. They, it's basically endless, and they care about quarterly returns, which never made sense to me. So I think the ability to think and act for the longterm for individual investors, that's your huge equalizer, right? Patience is the biggest equalizer in all of finance.

So back to our original question here. Is this just a US phenomenon? Does this work internationally as well? Well, my original chart goes back to 1926. We only have good data going back to 1970 for international stocks. So I have the MSCI World XUS. 50 plus years, that's good enough for me.

So John, throw up my table. This is the World XUS Index versus the S&P. Again, monthly, one year, five, 10, 15, 20 years, and it shows the win probabilities. Now, over monthly and one year returns, the S&P is a little better, right? 63% versus 60% for monthly. One year, S&P since 1970 is up 80% of the time.

World XUS is up 70% of the time. But look at five, 10, 15, 20 years. The 15 and 20 years are both 100 for each. They've never had a down period over 15 or 20 years since 1970. 10 year returns, you actually have a better win percentage for World XUS than S&P.

S&P is up 95% of the time over 10 year periods since 1970. The World XUS is up nearly 100%. It barely happened, 99.6%. Also a little higher for five years. So I think some people might be surprised to hear this just because of the fact that U.S. stocks have done so much better over the past 15 years or so.

Obviously, again, probability versus magnitude, that's a different thing. A lot of people ask me about the international versus U.S. thing. And is international diversification worth it? U.S. stocks make up 60% of global market cap. We get 40% of our revenue from the S&P overseas. Why do I need international stocks?

That's fair. And the annual returns for each have been better for the U.S. going back to 1970. U.S. stocks are up 10.5% per year in that time. International stocks, more like 9%. But most of that outperformance has come since 2013, basically, so I looked at this for a blog post recently.

From 1970 to 2012, annual returns were 9.7% per year for U.S. stocks, 9.6% for international stocks. Basically identical. U.S. stocks have done so much better, so all their outperformance has come since then. I did do a blog post about this, so John, throw up my next table. I kind of looked at the cyclicality of this.

Which one wins when? And I cherry-picked the dates here, but you can see U.S. or international stocks outperformed pretty handily in the 1970s. Early 1980s, U.S. took the baton. Late 1980s, there was a massive outperformance for international stocks, thank you, Japan. '90s, the U.S. took it back, and then we've gone back and forth since, and then the latest period was just a really long cycle of outperformance for U.S., which is 2008 to 2021.

So I understand why some U.S.-based investors are only comfortable holding U.S. stocks. And I think if you do that, you're probably gonna be fine over the long term. You feel safer, but I don't know. Here's one of my favorite all-time charts from Credit Suisse, their year-end returns yearbook, of the relative sizes of world stock markets from 1900 to 2023.

And I've used this one plenty before, but U.S. was 15% of global stock market in 1900. Now they've eaten the rest of the world like Pac-Man, and they're close to 60%. The winners write the history book, so it makes sense that we focus so much of our time and energy on U.S.

stocks. But I don't know, can you guarantee me that the U.S. is gonna do this again? Probably not. I don't think they're gonna become 120% of global market cap. I don't think it works like that. Check my math on that, but I don't think that's how it works. But what's to say another country or countries couldn't close this gap this century?

I would almost be shocked if they didn't, right, if the U.S. didn't become a little smaller and these other countries didn't come up a little more. I mean, Great Britain was 24% in 1900. They were, you know, like the fall of the Roman Empire here. It wouldn't shock me if some other country came up.

So I think that's the whole point of diversification. It's not perfect, but I think spreading your bets between other geographies around the world is sort of more of a risk management tool, even if it doesn't boost returns all that much. - Well, and we get this question sometimes from people who are not based in the U.S., not to brag, but we have a pretty big audience, you know, that's international.

- It's true. - We have a listener named Rob who stopped by a while back from Australia, and I was talking to him, and one of the things we were talking about is like what his portfolio looked like versus like mine, right, and he had quite a lot of U.S.

exposure, actually, but not as much, you know, and yeah, he had companies and things that I'd never even heard of or thought about. So that's something that's kind of interesting. - 2.2%, that's the thing. Most other countries have the same home bias that we have, and their stocks, their whole stock market is like the size of Apple, basically.

So imagine taking your whole portfolio and putting it in Apple and hoping for the best. I think that's the point of spreading your bets globally is that I think it's more of a risk reducer than anything. - Yeah, yeah, makes sense. - All right, do another one. - Okay, up next we have a question from Jeff.

Should I quit using my bank that pays 0.1% interest for my banking and emergency fund and start using a money market fund that earns 4.5%? My wife and I have good job security and higher education and usually invest extra cash or spend it on our young kids rather than sit on a bloated emergency fund earning nothing.

However, 4.5% is a lot more attractive than 0.1% while money hangs out between paydays and billing cycles, et cetera. Appreciate any thoughts. - This is a pretty drastic spread here. - Yeah, and this is an easy one. No one, and I mean, no one should be earning 0.1% on their savings account right now, right?

This should be illegal for banks to pay this little. Anything under 4% right now is pretty terrible. You should be earning somewhere in the four to 5% range, low fives probably at the high end for emergency savings. So anything, online savings account, money market, T-bills, CDs, short-term bonds, anything like that is paying four to 5% right now 'cause the Fed has jacked up short-term rates.

Easy decision. If a bank is ripping you off and for whatever reason you haven't moved your money, open a new account somewhere else. Money will actually earn some income. To be fair, I understand why some people maybe are still a little confused about the short-term yield situation if you haven't been paying attention.

Not everyone pays attention to this stuff every day like we do. So John, do a chart on of the three-month T-bills. So this is since the start of the turn of the century. This is three-month T-bills are a good proxy for what you can earn on your cash and things like savings accounts or money markets.

Rates were really high in the 1990s, five to 6% at the end of the decade there. The tech bust happened and rates fell off a cliff, getting back down to like 1% for a few years. And rates slowly but surely work themselves back up to 5% or so by 2007, 2008.

2008 financial crisis, we go to zero and are there for like seven years, right? Then we slowly but surely go back up a little bit, just over 2% until 2018. They go back down a little and then you can see another cliff drop, Wile E. Coyote style in 2020 for the pandemic.

So we've had this huge roller coaster that goes from up down, but then we sort of level off for a while at zero. So I think it makes sense why some people might still think that that 0% is the way that things work, but definitely get your cash yields off the floor.

Find an account that pays four to 5%. But once you get off the zero bound, then don't go chasing yield all the time. Like, you know, I'm earning 4.75%, but I could be earning five. I think just getting off the 0% is the biggest thing there. And then probably it's more trouble than it's worth.

But yes, you have to get off of 0%. That's a layup right now. - Yeah, I attained five, but I wasn't happy with the process to get me there. And it involved a bank collapsing in the process. - Okay, yeah. So make sure your bank's been around for more than like three months, unlike Duncan's, and has a name that doesn't sound like it was made up by Bernie Madoff.

- Right, yeah, probably good advice. - Then you're good. But yeah, get off of zero. This is the easiest question we'll get today. - Cool, yeah, I like that. - Next one. - Okay, up next we have a question from Connor. I'm finishing my residency training after doing med school and residency for the past seven years.

So I have about $230,000 in student loan debt. However, I'm pursuing public student loan forgiveness, which will forgive my loans in about 6.5 years. - You knew that one. - I know that one because I've read a lot about that. We're in the process of purchasing our first home after being pre-approved for a $600,000 mortgage.

We only have about $35,000 in cash, but I'm about to start my new job that pays about four times my current income. I've heard that physician mortgages, which that's new terminology to me, are great given that they don't require a down payment. However, is there any consequence of putting even a little money down towards the down payment, or should I just try to pay extra on the mortgage once I start making more money?

We plan to live in this house for five to seven years before we would consider a move. All right, 230K, sounds kinda like a lot. John, do a chart on here of student loan debt. I'm gonna bust some myths here. This is from the Brookings Institute. 2% of all borrowers owe $200,000 or more, but they make up 14% of the balance of all student loans.

Now, if you go to 100K, 6% of borrowers owe 100K or more, but that makes up 1/3 of the entire debt load. So obviously, student loans are not, like, it is an issue, but you see these stories about people who went into debt and owe six figures, and maybe they got, like, a philosophy degree that they can't do anything with.

Most of those people went to med school or law school or getting their master's, and if you were a person who didn't and you got that much debt, then you got some really bad advice, unfortunately. - Or they got an MFA that they really didn't need. - There you go, yeah, something you didn't need.

So, obviously, sounds like a lot of money, but for a doctor, considering the high income potential, like, you're coming out of residency, this is a good investment. It sounds like you're not gonna be paying it anyway, right? So what do you say, Duncan? Public service loan forgiveness? - Oh, yeah.

- This is basically, the idea is if you work for some sort of non-profit or the government has to kind of sign off on the place you work, you make 120 consecutive payments, and then your student loans will be forgiven. So that's not a bad deal for that high of a debt load.

So that sounds like you've got that figured out, so you're willing to do non-profit work. Physician loan, also not a bad deal. So the way this works, Duncan, is banks know doctors will have a high income, but coming out of residency, they not a high amount of saved money because they were in residency and not earning very much, and they have huge debt loads.

So banks know that this is probably money good, and they're willing to offer this low down payment or no down payment mortgage. And so that's not a bad deal, 'cause they know they're working with someone who's gonna have a high income, right? So I did some spreadsheeting based on the numbers kind of provided.

So $600,000 mortgage, let's say they go all the way up there since that's what they were pre-approved for. I mean, you get a pre-approval range. Let's be honest, everyone goes to the high end of the range. No one's gonna go to the low end of the range. It doesn't work like that.

No money down at 7% mortgage rates, which is what we hit this week, which is ouch, ouch, ouch, 7% mortgage rates. That's a monthly payment of around $3,900 and change, right? Almost close to 4,000. If you put your full 35,000 in savings as a down payment, now we're looking at monthly payments of more like 3,750.

So you'd say like $240 a month, something like that. I don't think the down payment makes sense here. It would only be like a 5% or 6% down payment anyway with that much money if you're going to 600K. Doesn't really provide you much relief in terms of monthly payments.

Plus you're gonna have a ton of costs in the moving process, closing costs and moving costs and inspection fees and all this stuff. I would hang on to that money for the flexibility of it. And if you don't pay it down and you wanna put it back into the mortgage at some point, you can still do that and do a principal payment.

I guess the biggest consequence of not putting much down is that if the price goes down and you wanna sell or move out, then you're gonna have to eat that loss probably. But even if, and then 6% in equity gets wiped out fairly quickly if prices fall as well.

So I prefer the flexibility of that savings on hand as opposed to putting it down, especially if it's such a small down payment. If you can just borrow and not have to pay, you can always pay it, like you said, pay it down later once your income gets a little higher.

My only other comment here is be careful on the temptation to go crazy on lifestyle creep. Obviously you've been living like a resident for a while now and four times in your income is gonna feel pretty darn nice. But I just say, make sure you don't go completely nuts right away.

- Can they go like two times their standard of living? - Just build in a decent savings rate once, just because you're used to living like a resident, right? You don't wanna completely just change. I would build in like slowly, but surely work into it as opposed to just going nuts right away.

I also highly recommend the book, "The White Coat Investor" by Jim Dolley. He has a podcast by the same name. Actually, I was on a few months ago if you wanna try to go find that. It's written by a doctor for a doctor. It's all about the finances surrounding young doctors and how to build wealth.

Highly recommended for someone in your situation understand student loans and investing and personal finance and the intricacies of being a doctor and dealing with that. And also congrats. I cannot imagine the amount of hard work that is involved in going through med school and getting a residency and all that stuff.

So good for you. - I can because I watch "Scrubs." I feel like I have a decent idea. - I love that show. That is a highly underrated. Oh, it was so good. I pretend like the last season didn't happen, but that is a great show. - Yeah, and Zach Braff was on the "Rich Roll" podcast recently, it was great.

It was good. - They don't make 'em like that anymore. All right, let's do another one. - All right, up next we have a question. Is this one, is this from Chris? Yep, this one is from Chris. "Not to brag, my wife and I--" - So not to brag of the week, big time.

- I think so, yeah. "Not to brag, my wife and I acquired a $1 million, "1,000 square foot condo in the Boston area "when rates were less than 3% with 20% down "due to an unexpected liquidity event." That sounds like an early 2000s band. I don't know, but. "Due to an unexpected liquidity event, "we can afford to pay off the mortgage in full.

"However, this seems foolish to do "with the six month treasury yield at 5%. "We are 29 and 30 and combined annual income of $300,000. "We have discussed the possibility of starting a family "in the next five years and would need to increase "the size of our home to accommodate "the potential addition/additions to our family.

"We would also want to move to Cambridge, Massachusetts. "Would it make more sense to pay off our current mortgage "in full in order to be debt free, "or rent out our current condo and use "the unexpected liquidity for a down payment "on a place in Cambridge?" - All right, yeah, easily wins the order for not to brag.

Let's bring in someone who has experience in both financial planning and the Boston real estate market. Benny Markets, AKA Ben Coulthard. - Benjamin C. Markets. - So Ben, I was in Boston, I guess last year, and visited you, and you kind of mentioned the real estate market or the rental market there is a little pricey, so I want to hear your thoughts.

John, first throw up the Case-Shiller of Boston. I want to ask for your thoughts on this. So this is the last 10 years, Case-Shiller National Home Price Index versus Boston Home Price Index. Boston has fallen behind nationally in the last few years. That actually surprises me. I'm sure there are neighborhoods that have done much better, but what do you think about this being a Boston guy?

- Yeah, it's fallen behind, but it is still not great, Bob. I chose this question for a few reasons. So yeah, number one, he starts with not to brag. Chris, I know you're a real one. I see you, and frankly, if anyone is not aware of that reference, they should subscribe to Animal Spirits Pod.

Number two, yes, Boston guy. I'm in the town right now, Charlestown, for those who don't know. My friend's cousin is Ben Affleck's sister's brother-in-law. That's actually not true, but my fellow Bostonians go to the front of the line. The last reason, this is the easiest damn question out of the 150 in the Q bank, all right?

You basically answered it yourself, and I do respect that he's asking it because it's a huge decision, right? Like, even if you're 95% sure, it's still good to bounce it off an objective third party. - Wait, wait, wait, hang on. I don't think it's as easy as you think.

So you think, so what is your answer? Let's hear it. I don't think it's as easy as you think. - For one, yeah, I'm in a similar boat as Chris. So like me and my soonish-to-be fiancee, not to brag, at least I think, we rent this charming trash heap and are half looking to buy a place.

But because interest rates have doubled since our man Chris locked in that beautiful 3% interest rate, not only can I not afford to buy in Charlestown or Cambridge, I can barely afford a piece of dog shit stuck to the bottom of my shoe in Medford, all right? I want Chris to view this sub-3% mortgage, which I assume is locked in for the long run, as the best freaking investment he has ever made in his life.

Like it's literally like more traffic. - How much is he gonna, to break even on a thousand square foot apartment at a million dollars, he's gonna have to get like what, $4,500 a month, $5,000 a month? Is that doable? - Well, yeah, I was gonna get to the rental, I was gonna get to the rental thing, but like going back to the investment, like this asset on this mortgage rate is literally more beneficial to him than if he put 20K in NVIDIA in 2009.

Like I wouldn't-- - I agree, hang onto it. - I would challenge Chris to a duel to the death for a chance to take his mortgage. And he's gotta cherish it-- - Whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on. Yeah, come on, man. - To quote the great Billy Madison. - Whoa, aggressive.

- Obviously, these people are as late 20s, early 30s, they're in an unbelievable spot. I don't know if it was an inheritance or stock options or what, how they got the money, but the fact that they could, they have the ability to either pay down this mortgage, which was what, 800 grand, or use it on something else in Cambridge, which I guess is a nice spot to, either way, they're probably going to be fine.

My only concern would be, you hold on to the other one as a rental and you buy this new one, are you overextending yourself in Massachusetts real estate in terms of concentration? - Right, so there's that and like, yeah, if we don't know the dollar amounts and like what exactly is going on in the overall financial plan, that's why plans are important, it's hard to like say definitely.

So I noticed one thing, it says that, it sounds like the vision for the starting a family is still a few years away. Like, you know, interest rates have doubled, the home prices have hardly budged. I'm not a market timer guy, but like probably not the most glorious time to take on a big mortgage if you don't absolutely have to.

- That I agree with it. Yeah, they have some time to wait things out. They're not in a, they don't have to be in a hurry to move and they can put this money into T-bills or something while they wait. - Right, and the rental thing too, like, yeah, it'd be great to rent that other one out and ship it on the new monthly payments, but like being a landlord isn't zero work.

Like, you'll probably have to deal with some 23-year-old punk who's like spilling natty lights on your hardwood floor and like flicking boogers on the walls. 10 months later, you're gonna have to find another one of those 23-year-old punks. Like, it's not like as easy as passive income, you know?

- Yes, I agree. So-- - I just learned in the chat too that Cambridge is actually a town. I've been there, I've been to Harvard's campus before. I thought that that was just like a neighborhood of Boston. - Yeah, it's beautiful. It's where I would want to raise a family, frankly.

But yeah, like back to the like living situation, like despite the liquidity, like if I were him, I would just, I would enjoy the city, particularly enjoy that sub 3% mortgage, and then, you know, park the liquidity in a T-bill, like maybe half, you know, the amount to lock in a five-handle and then, you know, put the rest in like a money market or a high yield with a four-handle.

Clip thousands in yields, you know-- - Taking time. - You're doing nothing until you're ready for that big purchase. - Either way, they're in a pretty good position, but you're right. Laying down the 3% mortgage early is especially when you can get five in a T-bill. There's no reason for that right now.

It makes no sense. - Exactly. - Perfect. All right, let's do another one. - Cool. Okay. By the way-- - You're not bitter about the Boston real estate market, right? Just making sure. - Yeah, I am not bullish on the Boston. Well, I just think like, yeah, as you would say, you could drive a truck through the bid-ask spread.

Everyone's hanging out in their 3% mortgages and like people like myself's affordability got cut in half. So it's just, yeah, it's a stalemate right now. - All right. All right, last but not least, let's do a question from Owen. Is it a good idea to start children off with a financial planner or advisor so they develop good financial habits and understand the power of investing?

What about when they turn 18? Also on this, this is like a very nubile question, but maybe just explain the difference in a financial planner and advisor if there is one for our young viewers who might not know that. - That's basically the same thing. - Yeah, tomato, tomato there.

- You see people always kind of like say one or the other, so I was just curious. - And some people spell advisor with an E, some do it with an O. I don't know why. - I know, I'm an O guy, big time. - I'm a big advisor guy.

- Yeah, I'm an advisor. - I mean, my gut response is no, I don't think there's any reason as an 18 year old that you need a financial advisor, but maybe you can talk about like how to better your life as a young person financially. I mean, almost like a financial life coach, but there's just, yeah, financial advisor, no.

- Yeah, that's my answer too. Like, even if his teenage daughter already had two commas in her account, I'd say that she really just needs like a few ETFs and maybe a good CPA, but I get this one a lot, and I wanna start like broadly. - In terms of like clients ask you, do my kids need an advisor basically?

- Yeah, I mean, there's 35 year olds who don't need an advisor, and there's 85 year olds who don't need an advisor. It's not like, I think of it as like when your brain is starting to cry uncle, and crying uncle comes in different forms. It's, oh my God, we just had a baby.

Like, I don't even have time to deal with this anymore. It's, I got a promotion and had a baby. I don't even know how I'm gonna deal with all this, or it's exiting a small business, starting a small business, equity comp payday, inheritance, like really any kind of like OMFG moment.

- It's a life event or your financial situation becomes so complex, or you just don't have the time to deal with it that you need to outsource to someone else. - Correct, correct. It's, yeah, you said it, outsource your brain power, your time, and or your anxiety to a third party.

Like that's the time. So this does vary for everyone. It's just, it's not a dollar or like an age threshold. It is a time or complexity threshold. So back to Owen's daughter, maybe if she was a freshman at Harvard writing algorithms on her dorm room window, and about to drop out to become the founder of the social network, then she might be at a complexity threshold that would warrant an advisory service.

By the way, Jesse Eisenberg is more Mark Zuckerberg to me than Zuck himself. Like Jesse is Mark. - He's a much better Mark, yeah. - So he's so much better than Mark. But I think like Owen's question was more about like giving his daughter wisdom and setting her on the right path.

And for that, I do have a few ideas. Option one, if you, Owen, have an advisor and they aren't willing to spend like the occasional 30 minutes with her, like I do with my clients' children, then might I suggest firing they ass. Like if they can't fit that in, then either your family isn't enough of a priority or they don't have any capacity, which both aren't great.

Option two, there are hybrid human robo advisors that exist. One of which is ours, it's called Liftoff. This type of service is great for someone who doesn't really know where to start. Like maybe they need to talk to someone once in a while, certainly be better off without a Robin Hood type portfolio.

And if she wants to start with a hundred bucks, myself, one of the other four advisors who oversee that platform would be happy to chat with her. My last idea, I actually kind of got this from TCAF last week, from Chris Davis, who does this with his nieces and nephews.

I think incentivizing her to read a great beginner investment book is where I'd start. Like I wouldn't expect her to crack open the intelligent investor on her own just for fun. But maybe be like, "Hey, money is really important in life. "I'll reward you with a hundred bucks "if you read this book "and tell me three things that you learned." Like that might light the spark and maybe she even chooses to invest a hundred bucks.

You never know. - Yeah, no, I agree. Get 'em on the right path. And the thing is, as a parent, that's almost your job at that point, at 18. - Right. - Right? Unless they have a complex financial situation and you're talking to them about a trust they're gonna inherit someday, or they have a job right away that's gonna pay them a lot of money, it's probably just trying to instill in them some good habits if they haven't gotten them yet.

But that's, yeah, as a parent, that's probably your job at that point. - Yeah, another good option, have 'em watch "The Compound." You know, get 'em started young. More like toddlers watching "The Compound." - Send us a, yeah, send us your address. I'll send you a couple of copies of my book.

- I don't even expect, I was gonna ask you, smarter Ben, like what do you think is the best beginner book to start with? Like I think of Morgan Housel's "The Psychology of Money." I think maybe "Money Game" by Adam Smith. And frankly, like I think like you and Majuli's books are maybe like closer to 201 instead of 101, you know?

- Yeah, that's when you're like in the working world. And yeah, 'cause 18, you still have a lot of this stuff ahead of you. But yeah, that's the cool thing is these days, I'm guessing most kids don't even like books anymore. They want podcasts, or they want, you know, blog posts, or they probably want something that's easier to digest.

So maybe that's the way to get 'em is, you know, listen to a couple of finance podcasts and figure out the kind of thing that works for you in that. And just get interested. I think that's the point, is just getting interested in this stuff from a young age to kind of understand that someday this money stuff is going to be important for me.

- I think Michael Lewis books are great for just general interest in like business and tangential kind of investing stuff. - Don't read "The Big Short." No, do not read "The Big Short." - I'm already thinking "Flash Boys." "Flash Boys" is one of my favorite. That one made it like really fun.

- I think "The Big Short" probably lost more money than people lost in the housing market in 2008 because people thought they could short stuff and predict the end of the world. But no, but you're right. He's good, Doug. But yeah, I agree. Just getting the interest in them is, and maybe you could do it together, right?

And better understand and put on animal spirits every Wednesday morning when you're driving them to school. - Yeah, and pay her a hundred bucks to do it too. It'll be better money spent than, you know, whatever else. - Yes, but yeah, not easy. Great question. - Lots of good ones today.

- Yes, Ben, last time I saw you, you were looking through your DraftKings profile, betting on every NBA game. I just wanna make sure we're right-sizing those positions and we're not using a future down payment on a Boston 300 square foot, right? - Yes, yes, we're not. I would say overall, things are going weak to quite weak.

I mean, my performance is correlated to Boston sports, which used to be a great thing, but now we're overvalued. - So you have a home country bias in your gambling? - Massive home country bias. And I mean, the Celtics, they just can't get it done. They've peaked. Like the second that Grant Williams got in Jimmy Butler's face in game two, I could see the $50 series bet that I had on them just evaporate before my eyes.

- At least you're right-sizing your positions though. $50 is fine. - Right, exactly. I do have a few more nuggets of wisdom. So even if you pick a winner, and this goes for investments too, you'll never be satisfied. You'll wish you had put more. I took Jon Rahm to win the Masters at plus 850, meaning if you put a hundred bucks, you get paid out 850.

Too bad I only put $5 on it. Like you're just never gonna be satisfied. You get overconfident, you bet more, and then you get whacked. - That's why you don't put your whole paychecks into sports gambling, right? - Exactly. I stand by that it's a great reminder. It's a great distraction from the actual bulk of your investments.

75% of my net worth is in index funds. 15 is in BIL for a down payment. Maybe 9% is in individual stocks like Nvidia, which again, I put a thousand into Nvidia in 2017. I can't even enjoy the 12X 'cause I'm just pissed about how little I put into it.

Like even if you win, you're still upset. So whatever, I just drive myself insane with a tiny portion. - Not to brag. - And you know, let the rest is gravy. - Give yourself a back-headed compliment. - Yeah, I love it. - That's right. And guess what? I will say I'm taking the nuggets to win the championship.

Jokic doing this stuff from Three Point Line. Yeah, they're probably gonna sell it a premium, but I'm taking them. - All right, don't quit your day job. Remember, email us, askthecompoundshow@gmail.com. Thank you to Benny Markets for coming on. Thanks you to Duncan as usual. Remember, birddogs.com. ATC is the code.

We'll see you next time. - See you, everyone. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)