back to indexE12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Chapters
0:0 Besties reflect on the election night special, comparing Trump's case to Al Gore's in 2000
4:44 Was this election devastating for extreme-ism in politics?
12:13 Pfizer vaccine, withholding the vaccine from the political news cycle
21:54 COVID endgame scenarios
28:45 Public markets ripping, gridlock great for the economy
34:43 Analyzing exit polls, death of identity politics
50:57 Biggest loser of the election: Journalism
57:43 When will Trump concede? What will his next move be?
67:37 San Francisco's collapse - will it eventually go bankrupt?
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hey everybody welcome to another all in podcast this is an all bestie no guesty episode of all in 00:00:09.120 |
the last time you heard from the besties it was election night and it was a show a crazy 00:00:17.760 |
show let's be honest i mean we if we go back and look at that historical document 00:00:24.800 |
we had moments where we thought trump was going to absolutely crush then we had moments of confusion 00:00:31.120 |
and now here we are and i think we have to give a couple of uh bestie kudos to uh first off chamath 00:00:40.080 |
pointing out pennsylvania was going to be big and then second when we went through the possible 00:00:46.400 |
scenarios of who what what could possibly happen a big giant blue wave uh trump 00:00:54.720 |
was going to be a big giant blue wave and then the second one was trump winning it all 00:00:59.680 |
and then maybe something in the middle option three came through and that was saxipoo nailed it 00:01:06.080 |
i think that was your assumption sax the soft landing the soft landing yeah so why don't we 00:01:12.400 |
just for the people who didn't tune in live sorry jason can i ask a question saxipoo saxipoo was that 00:01:18.080 |
your um like projection or was it from that from that guy who lives in his dad's basement his mom's 00:01:21.680 |
basement that you brought my my researcher well newman newman works for me so we uh newman newman 00:01:28.720 |
yeah newman uh newman and i worked worked together on on those takes but yeah the the take that we 00:01:35.440 |
thought was was possible but probably unlikely but could represent a really good scenario was the the 00:01:41.840 |
soft landing where you get a split decision and i think that's what the american people voted for 00:01:47.120 |
um you know you had the the data that was coming in and then you had the the data that was coming in 00:01:51.280 |
and then you had the the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and 00:01:53.280 |
then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you 00:01:55.280 |
had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the 00:01:57.280 |
data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that 00:01:59.280 |
was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming 00:02:01.280 |
in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and 00:02:03.280 |
then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you 00:02:05.280 |
had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the 00:02:07.280 |
data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that 00:02:09.280 |
What the electorate seems to be saying is they want the parties now to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology. 00:02:15.440 |
But TBD sacks, I mean, Georgia's still up for grabs. 00:02:23.860 |
Yeah, so I think there's a series of core challenges we can talk about. 00:02:31.720 |
I think Joe Biden will be the next president. 00:02:34.560 |
We can kind of compare this to Bush v. Gore from 2000. 00:02:40.780 |
And if you want to compare Trump's case to Gore's case, it's weaker in every respect. 00:02:47.440 |
I mean, first of all, with Bush v. Gore, Gore only had to overturn one state, which was Florida, whereas Trump has to now contest and overturn three or four states simultaneously. 00:02:58.080 |
Second, Gore was within a few hundred votes of Bush. 00:03:07.200 |
Third, you know, Gore or Bush never trailed Gore in any recount. 00:03:15.440 |
And Trump has that problem that he's never and he's very far behind Gore as well. 00:03:22.180 |
So you look at those three things and you'd say, you know, Gore couldn't overcome it. 00:03:28.660 |
And, of course, I'd say finally, you know, W had the velvet hammer James Baker working for him. 00:03:34.440 |
Whereas Trump, frankly, has Rudy Giuliani, who's throwing press conferences in the parking lot of forces and landscaping between a dildo shop and a crematorium. 00:03:47.900 |
I think somebody was tweeting, you know, this is perfect because, you know, they were saying they wanted Rudy to fuck off and die. 00:03:54.960 |
So it was so appropriate that this press conference was held between a dildo shop and a crematorium. 00:04:00.780 |
So, you know, it's not exactly the A-team that. 00:04:04.280 |
Trump's got playing for him here in the courts. 00:04:07.200 |
But I mean, David Bossie, by the way, David Bossie, who is in charge of the whole thing. 00:04:16.680 |
I mean, just there's so many angles we can take here, including the fact that. 00:04:25.980 |
Trump's campaign advisor got COVID like the day after or. 00:04:36.440 |
But David Bossie, who's in charge of this whole recount process, got COVID as well. 00:04:40.840 |
OK, so I want to just shift us now to what could have so many things went right for the Democrats. 00:04:49.220 |
But there was also something very clear here that happened, which is the what I call the HSP, the Hysterical Socialist Party of America, I think was dealt a death blow. 00:05:06.700 |
And so, you know, even if we want to talk about the Electoral College, et cetera, these are still very low numbers. 00:05:14.940 |
I believe if the Pfizer news comes out last week. 00:05:18.820 |
Trump wins or if any combination of AOC, Biden, AOC, Bernie or Warren were in any way involved in this election process and Warren. 00:05:33.400 |
push to the side, the squad was squashed, because we knew that if they got any kind of play, 00:05:40.920 |
Trump sells into victory. So when we look at what happens going forward, and I'll let any one of the 00:05:49.260 |
three of you take this, what does this say about the hysterical socialist party, the HSP, the squad, 00:05:57.060 |
the Bernie bros? What does this say about them? Well, you have a look, you have a 00:06:03.220 |
you have a loud group of people on both sides. And the reality is that both extremes of both 00:06:10.840 |
parties, actually, after this election, have very little to stand on that's unique. 00:06:16.420 |
Because if you think about what the plurality of Americans want is actually just a common, 00:06:23.720 |
decent, centrist, do no harm alternative. And they're going to pick that more times than 00:06:29.700 |
they're not going to pick it. It's only when things get extreme, like in 2016, 00:06:33.040 |
in order to send a message, will they do it? And until it's resolved, they tried to do it again now. 00:06:39.220 |
So we should actually talk about that. I don't think that this was, you know, a runaway. It was 00:06:44.020 |
way too close on too many dimensions that actually matter for the future prosperity of America. 00:06:48.320 |
But that being said, what does it mean for the future? I think the future is like a Pete Buttigieg 00:06:53.300 |
must be high fiving, you know, the people in his camp right now, because a common, decent, 00:07:02.860 |
For example, like, let's just say you believe in gay rights, guess what, you don't need 00:07:07.160 |
to be at the fringes to believe in that, that's mainstream. 00:07:09.540 |
You believe in like a reasonable form of health care, that's mainstream. 00:07:12.400 |
If you believe in climate change, it's mainstream. 00:07:15.380 |
You start to go and tick off the things that the extremes would want to believe, there's 00:07:21.840 |
So one party is going to be basically about like a federalized nanny state and the other 00:07:26.620 |
party will be a bunch of conspiracy theorist crazies, and I think it's going to force more 00:07:34.600 |
To me, that's a much safer place to be than I think where we could have been if Trump 00:07:40.640 |
had won or if the extreme left had basically been validated with a candidate that won. 00:07:48.720 |
And I would add to that that the proof of that, the proof of the electorate's desire 00:07:53.420 |
to attack towards the center is you look at the down ballot elections. 00:07:57.600 |
So in the Senate, the Republicans are still holding on to a majority. 00:08:01.580 |
They're holding on to a majority pending the Florida runoff. 00:08:05.000 |
But the Democrats failed to take out Susan Collins, Tom Tillis, Steve Daines. 00:08:09.400 |
These were three incumbent Republicans who were way behind in the polls heading into 00:08:14.080 |
They didn't come close to taking out Lindsey Graham or Mitch McConnell despite spending 00:08:26.740 |
You know, Lindsey Graham, they said that it was neck and neck and he actually ended up 00:08:38.000 |
In the House too, Democrats expected a gain of 10 to 15 seats. 00:08:44.780 |
They failed to defeat a single GOP incumbent. 00:08:47.620 |
The GOP House members ran about two or three points ahead of President Trump. 00:08:53.700 |
And then the Democrats were completely shut out in Texas, which was supposed to be going 00:09:01.580 |
So this, you know, so anyway, I'm providing some support to the idea that this was a split 00:09:08.800 |
The voters voted to remove both of the or to voted against the extremes of both parties. 00:09:14.940 |
So Friedberg, when you look at this, you see, I think, an absolute just people don't want 00:09:26.020 |
How much of this do you think is Trump derangement system syndrome? 00:09:31.960 |
I think that the Trump syndrome and what got Trump into office eventually taking him out, 00:09:34.720 |
which is the guy just takes up too much oxygen in the room. 00:09:41.840 |
And the guy is just incredibly annoying to have to deal with day to day. 00:09:49.660 |
I think we've I think we've been at a rave for four years, and everyone's like coming 00:09:55.400 |
down from the Mali and you're not going to go to a Marilyn Manson concert like right after 00:10:00.960 |
You want to go sit in the parking lot and you just want to chill out a little bit and 00:10:04.800 |
we all just want to like have a beer and relax. 00:10:07.520 |
You know, like, I mean, I think that needs some five HTP and a banana. 00:10:10.960 |
You just yeah, you want to go sit in the 7-Eleven parking lot at four in the morning and you 00:10:15.300 |
want to like go get a fucking sweet cappuccino and smoke a cigarette and relax like it's 00:10:21.400 |
And I think it's like everyone's just kind of ready to chill out a bit. 00:10:24.420 |
And so this whole fucking swinging back to the you know, to the concert across the road 00:10:28.080 |
sounds just as bad as what we've just been through. 00:10:29.960 |
So let's just, you know, let's just live our lives a little bit. 00:10:33.960 |
And you know, we'll come back in four years and figure out how to fuck things up again. 00:10:39.960 |
I think voters want a presidency they can forget about, you know, I think Trump's sort 00:10:44.460 |
of Achilles heel as he demanded too much of the voters constant time and attention. 00:10:50.200 |
It obviously antagonized the other side and drove turnout for the Democrats. 00:10:53.960 |
But but it seems like voters are saying, look, just leave us alone. 00:10:57.960 |
We want to just forget about what's happening in the country. 00:10:58.960 |
We want to just forget about what's happening in Washington for four years. 00:11:01.200 |
And now they can because, you know, pending the Georgia runoff, it looks like Mitch McConnell 00:11:06.580 |
and Joe Biden will have to be in a power sharing arrangement and nothing gets done unless the 00:11:11.720 |
And by the way, just on that, there was a great tweet by Paul Graham. 00:11:15.760 |
He said the day after the election, something to the effect of it feels like some background 00:11:20.400 |
process in my computer had was just killed that was consuming 5% of my CPU. 00:11:27.960 |
It's like that Mac operating system spinning wheel of death. 00:11:33.840 |
It's like, you know, it's been this omnipresent thing in all of our lives over the last four 00:11:42.020 |
And you know, there wasn't that much value that came from paying so much attention and 00:11:48.800 |
And so it's just a great opportunity to come off the sugar high and reset ourselves and