E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more

hey everybody welcome to another all in podcast this is an all bestie no guesty episode of all in the last time you heard from the besties it was election night and it was a show a crazy show let's be honest i mean we if we go back and look at that historical document we had moments where we thought trump was going to absolutely crush then we had moments of confusion and now here we are and i think we have to give a couple of uh bestie kudos to uh first off chamath pointing out pennsylvania was going to be big and then second when we went through the possible scenarios of who what what could possibly happen a big giant blue wave uh trump was going to be a big giant blue wave and then the second one was trump winning it all and then maybe something in the middle option three came through and that was saxipoo nailed it i think that was your assumption sax the soft landing the soft landing yeah so why don't we just for the people who didn't tune in live sorry jason can i ask a question saxipoo saxipoo was that your um like projection or was it from that from that guy who lives in his dad's basement his mom's basement that you brought my my researcher well newman newman works for me so we uh newman newman yeah newman uh newman and i worked worked together on on those takes but yeah the the take that we thought was was possible but probably unlikely but could represent a really good scenario was the the soft landing where you get a split decision and i think that's what the american people voted for um you know you had the the data that was coming in and then you had the the data that was coming in and then you had the the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that was coming in and then you had the data that What the electorate seems to be saying is they want the parties now to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology.

But TBD sacks, I mean, Georgia's still up for grabs. They're going to go after it hard, right? They filed in Pennsylvania. Yeah, so I think there's a series of core challenges we can talk about. I think that they're unlikely to prevail. Very, very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president.

We can kind of compare this to Bush v. Gore from 2000. And if you want to compare Trump's case to Gore's case, it's weaker in every respect. I mean, first of all, with Bush v. Gore, Gore only had to overturn one state, which was Florida, whereas Trump has to now contest and overturn three or four states simultaneously.

Second, Gore was within a few hundred votes of Bush. It was extremely close. Trump is no closer than about 12%. 12,000 votes in Georgia. That's the closest one. Third, you know, Gore or Bush never trailed Gore in any recount. And Trump has that problem that he's never and he's very far behind Gore as well.

So you look at those three things and you'd say, you know, Gore couldn't overcome it. And he had a closer situation than this. And, of course, I'd say finally, you know, W had the velvet hammer James Baker working for him. Whereas Trump, frankly, has Rudy Giuliani, who's throwing press conferences in the parking lot of forces and landscaping between a dildo shop and a crematorium.

And I mean, you can't make this stuff up. I think somebody was tweeting, you know, this is perfect because, you know, they were saying they wanted Rudy to fuck off and die. So it was so appropriate that this press conference was held between a dildo shop and a crematorium.

So, you know, it's not exactly the A-team that. Trump's got playing for him here in the courts. But I mean, David Bossie, by the way, David Bossie, who is in charge of the whole thing. David Bossie is not even a lawyer. And then he gets COVID. So he's on the sidelines.

I mean, just there's so many angles we can take here, including the fact that. Am I correct that. Trump's campaign advisor got COVID like the day after or. No, no, no. Mark Meadows. Chief of Staff. Chief of Staff got it. But David Bossie, who's in charge of this whole recount process, got COVID as well.

OK, so I want to just shift us now to what could have so many things went right for the Democrats. But there was also something very clear here that happened, which is the what I call the HSP, the Hysterical Socialist Party of America, I think was dealt a death blow.

If you look, this was very close. And so, you know, even if we want to talk about the Electoral College, et cetera, these are still very low numbers. I believe if the Pfizer news comes out last week. Trump wins or if any combination of AOC, Biden, AOC, Bernie or Warren were in any way involved in this election process and Warren.

push to the side, the squad was squashed, because we knew that if they got any kind of play, Trump sells into victory. So when we look at what happens going forward, and I'll let any one of the three of you take this, what does this say about the hysterical socialist party, the HSP, the squad, the Bernie bros?

What does this say about them? Well, you have a look, you have a you have a loud group of people on both sides. And the reality is that both extremes of both parties, actually, after this election, have very little to stand on that's unique. Because if you think about what the plurality of Americans want is actually just a common, decent, centrist, do no harm alternative.

And they're going to pick that more times than they're not going to pick it. It's only when things get extreme, like in 2016, in order to send a message, will they do it? And until it's resolved, they tried to do it again now. So we should actually talk about that.

I don't think that this was, you know, a runaway. It was way too close on too many dimensions that actually matter for the future prosperity of America. But that being said, what does it mean for the future? I think the future is like a Pete Buttigieg must be high fiving, you know, the people in his camp right now, because a common, decent, thoughtful, centrist platform, For example, like, let's just say you believe in gay rights, guess what, you don't need to be at the fringes to believe in that, that's mainstream.

You believe in like a reasonable form of health care, that's mainstream. If you believe in climate change, it's mainstream. You start to go and tick off the things that the extremes would want to believe, there's very little room for them to stand on. So one party is going to be basically about like a federalized nanny state and the other party will be a bunch of conspiracy theorist crazies, and I think it's going to force more and more people to the middle.

I think that's the future. To me, that's a much safer place to be than I think where we could have been if Trump had won or if the extreme left had basically been validated with a candidate that won. Right. And I would add to that that the proof of that, the proof of the electorate's desire to attack towards the center is you look at the down ballot elections.

So in the Senate, the Republicans are still holding on to a majority. They're holding on to a majority pending the Florida runoff. But the Democrats failed to take out Susan Collins, Tom Tillis, Steve Daines. These were three incumbent Republicans who were way behind in the polls heading into Election Day.

They didn't come close to taking out Lindsey Graham or Mitch McConnell despite spending $2 million. How did Lady G get out of this one alive? Explain that to me. Susan Collins? No, Lady G. Lindsey Graham. Oh, I see. You know, Lindsey Graham, they said that it was neck and neck and he actually ended up winning that state by like 14 points.

It wasn't close. The polls were wildly off. And you saw that across the board. In the House too, Democrats expected a gain of 10 to 15 seats. Instead, they've lost about 10 seats. They failed to defeat a single GOP incumbent. The GOP House members ran about two or three points ahead of President Trump.

And then the Democrats were completely shut out in Texas, which was supposed to be going purple. There were eight open GOP seats. Democrats won none of them. So this, you know, so anyway, I'm providing some support to the idea that this was a split decision election. The voters voted to remove both of the or to voted against the extremes of both parties.

So Friedberg, when you look at this, you see, I think, an absolute just people don't want to deal with Trump anymore. How much of this do you think is Trump derangement system syndrome? And what do you think? What do you think? What do you think? What do you think?

I think that the Trump syndrome and what got Trump into office eventually taking him out, which is the guy just takes up too much oxygen in the room. And that's coming from me. And the guy is just incredibly annoying to have to deal with day to day. That's also coming from you.

And that's also coming from me. I think we've I think we've been at a rave for four years, and everyone's like coming down from the Mali and you're not going to go to a Marilyn Manson concert like right after being at a rave. You want to go sit in the parking lot and you just want to chill out a little bit and we all just want to like have a beer and relax.

You know, like, I mean, I think that needs some five HTP and a banana. You just yeah, you want to go sit in the 7-Eleven parking lot at four in the morning and you want to like go get a fucking sweet cappuccino and smoke a cigarette and relax like it's been it's been too much.

And I think it's like everyone's just kind of ready to chill out a bit. And so this whole fucking swinging back to the you know, to the concert across the road sounds just as bad as what we've just been through. So let's just, you know, let's just live our lives a little bit.

And you know, we'll come back in four years and figure out how to fuck things up again. I think that's kind of the psyche. That's what I think. I think voters want a presidency they can forget about, you know, I think Trump's sort of Achilles heel as he demanded too much of the voters constant time and attention.

There was like the psychic cost to it. It obviously antagonized the other side and drove turnout for the Democrats. But but it seems like voters are saying, look, just leave us alone. We want to just forget about what's happening in the country. We want to just forget about what's happening in Washington for four years.

And now they can because, you know, pending the Georgia runoff, it looks like Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden will have to be in a power sharing arrangement and nothing gets done unless the two of them agree. And by the way, just on that, there was a great tweet by Paul Graham.

He said the day after the election, something to the effect of it feels like some background process in my computer had was just killed that was consuming 5% of my CPU. And it's and it's so it's so tricky. It's like that Mac operating system spinning wheel of death. But it's it's David is so right.

It's like, you know, it's been this omnipresent thing in all of our lives over the last four years. And it's just exhausting. And you know, there wasn't that much value that came from paying so much attention and worrying so much. And so it's just a great opportunity to come off the sugar high and reset ourselves and take a nap.

I think that's a very astute point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point.

And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point. And I think that's a very important point.

E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more

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