back to indexDaphne Koller: Biomedicine and Machine Learning | Lex Fridman Podcast #93
Chapters
0:0 Introduction
2:22 Will we one day cure all disease?
6:31 Longevity
10:16 Role of machine learning in treating diseases
13:5 A personal journey to medicine
16:25 Insitro and disease-in-a-dish models
33:25 What diseases can be helped with disease-in-a-dish approaches?
36:43 Coursera and education
49:4 Advice to people interested in AI
50:52 Beautiful idea in deep learning
55:10 Uncertainty in AI
58:29 AGI and AI safety
66:52 Are most people good?
69:4 Meaning of life
00:00:00.000 |
The following is a conversation with Daphne Kohler, 00:00:03.320 |
a professor of computer science at Stanford University, 00:00:17.840 |
of using the data-driven methods of machine learning 00:00:24.440 |
Daphne and In-Citro are leading the way on this 00:00:36.360 |
This conversation was recorded before the COVID-19 outbreak. 00:00:41.280 |
For everyone feeling the medical, psychological, 00:01:00.080 |
or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman, 00:01:34.480 |
and security in all digital transactions is very important, 00:01:38.080 |
let me mention the PCI data security standard 00:01:43.880 |
I'm a big fan of standards for safety and security. 00:01:49.480 |
where a bunch of competitors got together and agreed 00:01:56.000 |
Now we just need to do the same for autonomous vehicles 00:02:00.560 |
So again, if you get Cash App from the App Store or Google Play 00:02:11.160 |
an organization that is helping to advance robotics 00:02:14.040 |
and STEM education for young people around the world. 00:02:17.640 |
And now, here's my conversation with Daphne Koller. 00:02:22.360 |
So you co-founded Coursera and made a huge impact 00:02:26.640 |
and after five years, in August 2016, wrote a blog post 00:02:31.440 |
saying that you're stepping away and wrote, quote, 00:02:34.440 |
"It is time for me to turn to another critical challenge, 00:02:38.840 |
"and its applications to improving human health." 00:02:41.640 |
So let me ask two far-out philosophical questions. 00:02:50.720 |
And two, do you think we'll one day figure out 00:03:01.760 |
and I don't like to make predictions of the type 00:03:07.280 |
because I think that's a, you know, that's smacks of hubris. 00:03:12.280 |
Seems that never in the entire eternity of human existence 00:03:24.200 |
because oftentimes by the time you discover the disease, 00:03:30.520 |
and so to assume that we would be able to cure disease 00:03:34.960 |
at that stage assumes that we would come up with ways 00:03:37.560 |
of basically regenerating entire parts of the human body 00:03:41.880 |
in the way that actually returns it to its original state, 00:03:52.920 |
but the number of things that you could actually define 00:04:02.520 |
that would need to happen before one could legitimately say 00:04:12.760 |
where are we in understanding the fundamental mechanisms 00:04:35.560 |
and there's always new things that we uncover 00:04:48.080 |
and then there's diseases in which I would say 00:04:52.000 |
probably the majority where we're really close to zero. 00:04:57.960 |
and type two diabetes fall closer to zero or to the 80? 00:05:02.960 |
- I think Alzheimer's is probably closer to zero than to 80. 00:05:12.680 |
but I don't think those hypotheses have as of yet 00:05:17.320 |
been sufficiently validated that we believe them to be true, 00:05:28.020 |
I would also say that Alzheimer's and schizophrenia 00:05:32.400 |
and even type two diabetes are not really one disease. 00:05:35.320 |
They're almost certainly a heterogeneous collection 00:05:39.400 |
of mechanisms that manifest in clinically similar ways. 00:05:46.640 |
that breast cancer is really not one disease, 00:05:55.160 |
to uncontrolled proliferation, but it's not one disease, 00:06:02.880 |
and it's that understanding that needs to precede 00:06:10.120 |
Now, in schizophrenia, I would say we're almost certainly 00:06:18.240 |
There are clear mechanisms that are implicated 00:06:22.980 |
that have to do with insulin resistance and such, 00:06:28.520 |
many mechanisms that we have not yet understood. 00:06:31.280 |
- So you've also thought and worked a little bit 00:06:45.280 |
- Those mechanisms are certainly overlapping. 00:06:51.940 |
that for most diseases, other than childhood diseases, 00:07:01.280 |
increases exponentially year on year every year 00:07:05.720 |
So obviously there is a connection between those two things. 00:07:14.960 |
that is not really associated with any specific disease. 00:07:18.740 |
And there's also diseases and mechanisms of disease 00:07:30.440 |
It is a little unfortunate that we get older, 00:07:43.080 |
- I mean, there's processes that happen as cells age 00:07:54.960 |
where the repair mechanisms don't fully correct for those. 00:08:03.680 |
that are misfolded and potentially aggregate, 00:08:10.560 |
There is a multitude of mechanisms that have been uncovered 00:08:14.040 |
that are sort of wear and tear at the cellular level 00:08:20.060 |
And I'm sure there's many that we don't yet understand. 00:08:34.760 |
is a very powerful feature for the growth of new things. 00:08:46.920 |
so in trying to fight disease and trying to fight aging, 00:08:53.960 |
do you think about sort of the useful fact of our mortality? 00:09:04.280 |
- Again, I think immortal is a very long time. 00:09:11.520 |
And I don't know that that would necessarily be something 00:09:17.960 |
but I think all of us aspire to an increased health span, 00:09:22.960 |
I would say, which is an increased amount of time 00:09:36.800 |
People deteriorate physically and mentally over time, 00:10:09.100 |
- And anyway, in the grand time of the age of the universe, 00:10:18.520 |
you've done, obviously, a lot of incredible work 00:10:22.120 |
so what role do you think data and machine learning 00:10:25.220 |
play in this goal of trying to understand diseases 00:10:37.880 |
because largely, the data sets that one really needed 00:10:42.440 |
to enable a powerful machine learning method, 00:10:57.640 |
but the last few years are starting to change that. 00:11:00.160 |
So we now see an increase in some large data sets, 00:11:05.160 |
but equally importantly, an increase in technologies 00:11:31.320 |
and the machine learning came as a sort of byproduct, 00:11:38.260 |
rather than a more simplistic data analysis method. 00:11:50.280 |
that bioengineers, cell biologists have come up with. 00:11:54.560 |
Let's see if we can put them together in brand new ways 00:12:00.240 |
that machine learning can really be applied on productively 00:12:06.580 |
that can help us address fundamental problems 00:12:09.440 |
- So really focus, to get, make data the primary focus 00:12:15.800 |
and find, use the mechanisms of biology and chemistry 00:12:23.360 |
that could allow machine learning to benefit the most. 00:12:32.160 |
So for us, the end goal is helping address challenges 00:12:35.760 |
in human health, and the method that we've elected 00:12:50.680 |
if you give it data that is of sufficient scale 00:12:58.560 |
so as to drive the ability to generate predictive models 00:13:03.560 |
which subsequently help improve human health? 00:13:05.680 |
- So before we dive into the details of that, 00:13:10.280 |
when and where was your interest in human health born? 00:13:16.760 |
Are there moments, events, perhaps, if I may ask, 00:13:19.880 |
tragedies in your own life that catalyzes passion, 00:13:23.040 |
or was it the broader desire to help humankind? 00:13:57.120 |
a concept that doesn't really even exist anymore. 00:14:01.120 |
which news group a particular bag of words came from? 00:14:08.680 |
The data sets at the time on the biology side 00:14:12.440 |
were much more interesting both from a technical 00:14:23.600 |
just by wanting to do something that was more, 00:14:27.280 |
I don't know, societally useful and technically interesting. 00:14:30.760 |
And then over time became more and more interested 00:14:34.400 |
in the biology and the human health aspects for themselves 00:14:45.080 |
without having a significant machine learning component. 00:14:57.320 |
when my father sadly passed away about 12 years ago. 00:15:02.520 |
He had an autoimmune disease that settled in his lungs 00:15:11.360 |
well, there's only one thing that we could do, 00:15:14.960 |
At some point, I remember a doctor even came and said, 00:15:27.120 |
And I had friends who were rheumatologists who said, 00:15:29.880 |
"The FDA would never approve prednisone today 00:15:31.920 |
"because the ratio of side effects to benefit 00:15:39.560 |
Today, we're in a state where there's probably four or five, 00:15:44.560 |
maybe even more, well, it depends for which autoimmune disease 00:15:48.720 |
but there are multiple drugs that can help people 00:15:56.720 |
And I think we're at a golden time in some ways 00:16:00.340 |
in drug discovery where there's the ability to create drugs 00:16:06.800 |
that are much more safe and much more effective 00:16:16.360 |
of biology and mechanism to know where to aim that engine. 00:16:21.360 |
And I think that's where machine learning can help. 00:16:25.400 |
- So in 2018, you started and now lead a company in Citro, 00:16:34.760 |
and the utilization of machine learning for drug discovery. 00:16:40.540 |
"We're really interested in creating what you might call 00:16:43.600 |
"a disease in a dish model, disease in a dish models, 00:16:49.080 |
"where we really haven't had a good model system, 00:16:52.140 |
"where typical animal models that have been used for years, 00:16:54.960 |
"including testing on mice, just aren't very effective." 00:16:58.860 |
So can you try to describe what is an animal model 00:17:06.280 |
So an animal model for disease is where you create 00:17:14.880 |
It's oftentimes a mouse where we have introduced 00:17:19.280 |
some external perturbation that creates the disease, 00:17:31.320 |
The problem is that oftentimes the way in which 00:17:40.880 |
It's what you might think of as a copy of the phenotype, 00:17:52.080 |
which in most cases doesn't happen naturally, 00:17:54.840 |
mice don't get Alzheimer's, they don't get diabetes, 00:18:10.840 |
just because the findings that we had in the mouse 00:18:15.040 |
The disease in the dish models is a fairly new approach. 00:18:20.840 |
It's been enabled by technologies that have not existed 00:18:28.360 |
So for instance, the ability for us to take a cell 00:18:35.560 |
revert that say skin cell to what's called stem cell status, 00:18:49.800 |
one can create a Lex neuron or a Lex cardiomyocyte 00:19:00.320 |
And so if there's a genetic burden of disease 00:19:04.800 |
that would manifest in that particular cell type, 00:19:07.160 |
you might be able to see it by looking at those cells 00:19:10.320 |
and saying, oh, that's what potentially sick cells look like 00:19:20.760 |
might revert the unhealthy looking cell to a healthy cell. 00:19:28.860 |
And so there's still potentially a translatability gap, 00:19:33.220 |
but at least for diseases that are driven, say, 00:19:38.220 |
by human genetics and where the human genetics 00:19:43.780 |
there is some reason to hope that if we revert those cells 00:19:52.220 |
and we can revert that cell back to a healthy state, 00:20:02.760 |
- That step, that backward step, I was reading about it, 00:20:09.140 |
- So it's like that reverse step back to stem cells. 00:20:22.540 |
- Can you maybe elaborate, is it actually possible? 00:20:25.340 |
So this result was maybe, I don't know how many years ago, 00:20:42.220 |
It was much more, I think, finicky and bespoke 00:20:46.420 |
at the early stages when the discovery was first made, 00:20:49.980 |
but at this point it's become almost industrialized. 00:20:54.500 |
There are what's called contract research organizations, 00:21:04.460 |
and it works a very good fraction of the time. 00:21:07.100 |
Now there are people who will ask, I think, good questions. 00:21:12.020 |
Is this really, truly a stem cell or does it remember 00:21:26.740 |
in terms of exposures to different environmental factors 00:21:36.420 |
and there is little bits and pieces of memory sometimes, 00:21:40.020 |
but by and large, these are actually pretty good. 00:21:43.580 |
- So one of the key things, well, maybe you can correct me, 00:21:48.740 |
but one of the useful things for machine learning 00:21:54.180 |
How easy it is to do these kinds of reversals to stem cells 00:22:11.180 |
something that can be done at the scale of tens of thousands 00:22:18.500 |
I think total number of stem cells or IPS cells 00:22:22.220 |
that are what's called induced pluripotent stem cells 00:22:25.220 |
in the world, I think is somewhere between five and 10,000 00:22:31.420 |
Now, again, that might not count things that exist 00:22:40.020 |
So it's not something that you could this point 00:22:51.820 |
because it can also be now perturbed in different ways. 00:22:56.140 |
And some people have done really interesting experiments 00:23:00.100 |
in, for instance, taking cells from a healthy human 00:23:16.140 |
and introduced a mutation that is known to be pathogenic. 00:23:22.420 |
and unhealthy cells, the one with the mutation 00:23:28.380 |
And so you could really start to understand specifically 00:23:31.820 |
what the mutation does at the cellular level. 00:23:39.780 |
'cause you also wanna capture ethnic background 00:23:43.580 |
but maybe you don't need one from every single patient 00:23:50.300 |
- Well, how much difference is there between people? 00:23:54.940 |
so we're all, like it seems like these magical cells 00:24:01.860 |
between different populations, different people. 00:24:04.020 |
Is there a lot of variability between cell cells? 00:24:07.020 |
- Well, first of all, there's the variability 00:24:13.420 |
So a stem cell that's derived from my genotype 00:24:21.780 |
that have more to do with, for whatever reason, 00:24:25.300 |
some people's stem cells differentiate better 00:24:31.540 |
so there's certainly some differences there as well. 00:24:35.460 |
and the one that we really care about and is a positive 00:24:49.260 |
- Well, a disease burden is just, if you think, 00:24:52.300 |
I mean, it's not a well-defined mathematical term, 00:24:55.060 |
although there are mathematical formulations of it. 00:25:00.540 |
are more likely to get a certain disease than others 00:25:03.460 |
because we have more variations in our genome 00:25:09.500 |
maybe fewer that are protective of the disease. 00:25:23.620 |
and add them all up in terms of how much risk they confer 00:25:49.300 |
say, at the highest decile of this polygenic risk score 00:25:53.500 |
Sometimes those differences are a factor of 10 or 12 higher, 00:25:58.500 |
so there's definitely a lot that our genetics 00:26:06.140 |
even if it's not by any stretch the full explanation. 00:26:12.020 |
- There is definitely signal in the genetics, 00:26:23.460 |
because in principle, you could say all the signal 00:26:34.660 |
then seeing what actually happens at the cellular level 00:26:37.960 |
is a heck of a lot closer to the human clinical outcome 00:26:49.460 |
- So just to get a sense, I don't know if it's easy to do, 00:26:56.220 |
Like, what's the source of raw data information? 00:27:22.540 |
in that our ability to measure cells very quantitatively 00:27:36.940 |
that was the initial era where we started to measure biology 00:27:42.820 |
in really quantitative ways, using things like microarrays, 00:27:46.740 |
where you would measure, in a single experiment, 00:27:50.900 |
the activity level, what's called expression level, 00:28:00.660 |
to even understand that there are molecular subtypes 00:28:04.500 |
of diseases like cancer, where up until that point, 00:28:09.540 |
But then, when we looked at the molecular data, 00:28:15.240 |
of breast cancer that, at the level of gene activity, 00:28:23.380 |
Now we have the ability to measure individual cells 00:28:28.860 |
using what's called single-cell RNA sequencing, 00:28:35.020 |
which is that activity level of different genes 00:28:42.740 |
So that's an incredibly powerful way of measuring cells. 00:28:45.400 |
I mean, you literally count the number of transcripts. 00:28:54.340 |
that's emerged in the last few years is microscopy, 00:28:57.500 |
and specifically even super-resolution microscopy, 00:29:13.380 |
And again, that gives you tremendous amounts of information 00:29:20.660 |
that amazing scientists out there are developing 00:29:24.500 |
for getting new types of information from even single cells. 00:29:29.500 |
And so that is a way of turning those squishy things 00:29:38.660 |
But so that data set then with machine learning tools 00:29:42.580 |
allows you to maybe understand the developmental, 00:29:49.940 |
And if it's possible to sort of at a high level, 00:29:53.700 |
describe how does that help lead to drug discovery 00:29:58.700 |
that can help prevent, reverse that mechanism? 00:30:06.780 |
in which this data could potentially be used. 00:30:37.700 |
Some people use it in a somewhat more sort of forward, 00:30:47.580 |
which is to say, "Okay, if I can perturb this gene, 00:30:56.100 |
And so maybe that gene is actually causal of the disease, 00:31:01.660 |
which is basically to take that very large collection 00:31:14.980 |
that might be similar at the human clinical outcome, 00:31:18.700 |
but quite distinct when you look at the molecular data? 00:31:28.020 |
to cells that come from this subtype of the disease, 00:31:32.100 |
and you apply that intervention, it could be a drug 00:31:46.940 |
that gives you a certain hope that that intervention 00:31:51.940 |
will also have a meaningful clinical benefit to people. 00:31:56.620 |
that you would wanna do after that to validate that, 00:31:58.740 |
but it's a very different and much less hypothesis-driven way 00:32:06.140 |
and might give rise to things that are not the same things 00:32:18.700 |
it's so exciting to talk about sort of a fundamentally, 00:32:37.900 |
So this is a kind of, it just feels good to talk about. 00:32:45.340 |
I wanna talk about the fundamentals of the data set, 00:33:01.660 |
certainly all of our machine learning people are outstanding 00:33:08.860 |
or doing e-commerce or even self-driving cars. 00:33:16.660 |
they come to us because they want to work on something 00:33:27.540 |
what do you hope, what kind of diseases can be helped? 00:33:31.100 |
We mentioned Alzheimer's, schizophrenia, type 2 diabetes. 00:33:33.900 |
Can you just describe the various kinds of diseases 00:33:48.060 |
And I think it's, I try to first deliver and then promise 00:33:57.300 |
that make it more likely that this type of approach 00:34:19.980 |
so that you could actually get enough of those cells 00:34:24.980 |
in a way that isn't very highly variable and noisy. 00:34:29.580 |
You would want the disease to be relatively contained 00:34:36.700 |
that you could actually create in vitro in a dish setting. 00:34:40.980 |
Whereas if it's something that's really broad and systemic 00:34:48.460 |
putting that all in the dish is really challenging. 00:35:03.340 |
are developing better and better systems all the time 00:35:06.220 |
so that diseases that might not be tractable today 00:35:14.900 |
these stem cell derived models didn't really exist. 00:35:16.700 |
People were doing most of the work in cancer cells, 00:35:26.340 |
and B, as you passage them and they proliferate in a dish, 00:35:30.700 |
they become, because of the genomic instability, 00:35:38.540 |
We have the capability to reasonably robustly, 00:35:48.440 |
which are these teeny little sort of multicellular 00:35:57.160 |
So there's cerebral organoids and liver organoids 00:36:11.800 |
these organoids to each other so that you could actually 00:36:16.600 |
that start to do that, where you can actually start 00:36:18.840 |
to say, okay, can we do multi-organ system stuff? 00:36:31.640 |
there will be disease models that we could make 00:36:35.440 |
- Yeah, and this conversation would seem almost outdated 00:36:38.760 |
with the kind of scale that could be achieved 00:36:43.880 |
- So you've co-founded Coursera with Andrew Ng, 00:36:53.960 |
can you maybe tell the origin story of the history, 00:37:00.960 |
and in general, your teaching to huge audiences 00:37:05.960 |
on a very sort of impactful topic of AI in general? 00:37:12.200 |
- So I think the origin story of MOOCs emanates 00:37:19.000 |
at Stanford University around the late 2000s, 00:37:31.560 |
about the opportunities of using online technologies 00:37:35.300 |
as a way of achieving both improved quality of teaching 00:37:48.900 |
which was sort of an attempt to take 10 Stanford courses 00:37:56.080 |
I led an effort within Stanford to take some of the courses 00:38:00.640 |
and really create a very different teaching model 00:38:07.400 |
and had some of those embedded interactions and so on, 00:38:11.100 |
which got a lot of support from university leaders 00:38:14.640 |
because they felt like it was potentially a way 00:38:17.440 |
of improving the quality of instruction at Stanford 00:38:19.640 |
by moving to what's now called the flipped classroom model. 00:38:23.520 |
And so those efforts eventually sort of started 00:38:28.080 |
and created a tremendous sense of excitement and energy 00:38:42.540 |
- By the way, MOOCs, it's probably impossible 00:38:58.720 |
Big bang is not a great term for the start of the universe, 00:39:05.280 |
So anyway, so those courses launched in the fall of 2011 00:39:15.920 |
just a New York Times article that went viral, 00:39:20.360 |
about 100,000 students or more in each of those courses. 00:39:24.600 |
And I remember this conversation that Andrew and I had, 00:39:39.000 |
and we could go back and go back to our labs, 00:40:00.800 |
And we decided ultimately to do it as we did with Coursera. 00:40:03.940 |
And so we started really operating as a company 00:40:15.440 |
But how did you, was that really surprising to you? 00:40:28.120 |
that you felt that, wow, the popularity indicates 00:40:31.120 |
that there's a hunger for sort of globalization of learning? 00:40:36.120 |
- I think there is a hunger for learning that, 00:40:51.680 |
It used to be that you finished college, you got a job, 00:40:56.120 |
by and large, the skills that you learned in college 00:41:11.480 |
they didn't even exist when you went to college 00:41:15.840 |
when you went to college don't even exist today or are dying. 00:41:28.600 |
giving people access to the skills that they need today. 00:41:37.980 |
for you, all of this started in trying to think of new ways 00:41:42.500 |
to teach or new ways to sort of organize the material 00:41:49.600 |
that would help the education process, the pedagogy. 00:41:52.560 |
So what have you learned about effective education 00:42:23.400 |
So people who are especially in the workforce 00:42:32.720 |
- Sure, can you describe the shortness of what? 00:42:44.080 |
We started out, the first online education efforts 00:42:48.060 |
were actually MIT's OpenCourseWare initiatives, 00:42:50.840 |
and that was recording of classroom lectures. 00:42:55.200 |
- An hour and a half or something like that, yeah. 00:43:00.400 |
I mean, some people benefit, I mean, of course they did, 00:43:03.160 |
but it's not really a very palatable experience 00:43:23.000 |
I mean, we started out with short video modules, 00:43:28.240 |
because we realized that 15 minutes was still too long 00:43:31.720 |
if you wanna fit in when you're waiting in line 00:43:42.580 |
and you really wanna break this up into shorter units 00:43:50.480 |
They can always come back and take part two and part three. 00:44:10.120 |
the brevity and the flexibility are both things 00:44:15.420 |
We learned that engagement during the content is important, 00:44:24.560 |
which we actually was an intuition that I had going in 00:44:30.880 |
that introducing some of these sort of little micro quizzes 00:44:36.480 |
Self-graded, automatically graded assessments 00:44:39.400 |
really help too, because it gives people feedback. 00:44:45.600 |
And then we learned a bunch of other things too. 00:44:50.600 |
and how having a female role model as an instructor 00:45:02.040 |
And you could do that online by doing A/B testing 00:45:04.800 |
in ways that would be really difficult to go on campus. 00:45:09.120 |
But so the shortness, the compression, I mean, 00:45:12.020 |
it has actually, so that probably is true for all, 00:45:16.440 |
you know, good editing is always just compressing 00:45:21.920 |
So that puts a lot of burden on the creator of the, 00:45:24.840 |
the instructor and the creator of the educational content. 00:45:50.120 |
- So first of all, let me say that it's not clear 00:45:54.120 |
that that crispness would work as effectively 00:45:58.880 |
because people need time to absorb the material. 00:46:04.760 |
and give people a chance to reflect and maybe practice. 00:46:08.400 |
is that they give you these chunks of content 00:46:13.440 |
And that's where I think some of the newer pedagogy 00:46:16.360 |
that people are adopting in face-to-face teaching 00:46:19.200 |
that have to do with interactive learning and such 00:46:26.640 |
whether you're doing that type of methodology 00:46:29.440 |
in online teaching or in that flipped classroom, 00:46:34.520 |
- What's, sorry to pause, what's flipped classroom? 00:46:37.200 |
- Flipped classroom is a way in which online content 00:46:47.240 |
and do some of the exercises before coming to class. 00:46:51.200 |
it's actually to do much deeper problem solving, 00:47:00.440 |
that are beyond just standing there and droning on 00:47:03.480 |
in front of the classroom for an hour and 15 minutes 00:47:09.220 |
And so it's one of the challenges I think that people have, 00:47:13.640 |
that we had when trying to convince instructors 00:47:21.080 |
in trying to get faculty to teach differently, 00:47:22.800 |
is that it's actually harder to teach that way 00:47:26.320 |
- Do you think MOOCs will replace in-person education 00:47:36.920 |
of education of the way people learn in the future? 00:47:46.040 |
- So I think it's a nuanced and complicated answer. 00:47:50.240 |
I don't think MOOCs will replace face-to-face teaching. 00:47:55.240 |
I think learning is in many cases a social experience. 00:48:02.560 |
we had people who naturally formed study groups, 00:48:10.280 |
And we found that that actually benefited their learning 00:48:19.640 |
who had those study groups than among ones who didn't. 00:48:23.840 |
oh, we're all gonna just suddenly learn online 00:48:33.160 |
But I do think that especially when you are thinking 00:48:41.680 |
the stuff that people get when their traditional, 00:48:44.760 |
whatever high school, college education is done, 00:48:47.880 |
and they yet have to maintain their level of expertise 00:48:54.680 |
I think people will consume more and more educational 00:48:59.720 |
because going back to school for formal education 00:49:04.760 |
- Briefly, it might be a difficult question to ask, 00:49:10.000 |
by artificial intelligence, by machine learning, 00:49:18.160 |
or for a lifelong journey of somebody interested in this? 00:49:27.280 |
- I think the important thing is first to just get started. 00:49:31.640 |
And there's plenty of online content that one can get 00:49:45.360 |
I would encourage people not to skip too quickly 00:49:48.400 |
past the foundations, because I find that there's a lot 00:49:56.880 |
And they basically just turn the crank on existing models 00:50:00.760 |
in ways that A, don't allow for a lot of innovation 00:50:10.360 |
and they don't even realize that their application 00:50:29.000 |
it's useful to have someone to bounce ideas off 00:50:43.280 |
Kaggle competitions or such are a really great place 00:50:46.120 |
to find interesting problems and just practice. 00:51:01.120 |
the most beautiful or surprising or interesting? 00:51:16.680 |
One would be the foundational concept of end-to-end training, 00:51:26.920 |
and you train something that is not like a single piece, 00:51:35.080 |
towards the actual goal that you're looking to- 00:51:45.680 |
you could certainly introduce building blocks 00:51:50.240 |
I'm actually coming to that in my second half of the answer, 00:51:53.080 |
but it doesn't have to be like a single monolithic blob 00:51:57.760 |
in the middle, actually, I think that's not ideal, 00:52:00.240 |
but rather the fact that at the end of the day, 00:52:04.160 |
that goes all the way from the beginning to the end. 00:52:06.920 |
And the other one that I find really compelling 00:52:13.200 |
that in its turn, even if it was trained to another task, 00:52:18.200 |
can potentially be used as a much more rapid starting point 00:52:29.040 |
reminiscent of what makes people successful learners. 00:52:51.120 |
- Is it surprising to you that neural networks 00:52:57.000 |
Is it maybe taken back to when you first would dive deep 00:53:02.000 |
into neural networks or in general, even today, 00:53:05.440 |
is it surprising that neural networks work at all 00:53:07.840 |
and work wonderfully to do this kind of raw end-to-end 00:53:25.800 |
it's possible to find a meaningful representation 00:53:32.920 |
in what is an exceedingly high dimensional space. 00:53:39.280 |
and people are still working on the math for that. 00:53:43.560 |
And I think it would be really cool if we figured that out. 00:53:48.000 |
But that to me was a surprise because in the early days 00:53:53.000 |
when I was starting my way in machine learning 00:54:01.160 |
I believe that you needed to have a much more constrained 00:54:36.520 |
of a convolutional neural network that's used for images 00:54:41.480 |
is actually quite different to the type of network 00:54:47.720 |
from the one that's used for speech or biology 00:54:52.480 |
There's still some insight that goes into the structure 00:54:57.040 |
of the network to get to the right performance. 00:55:06.580 |
some insight injected somewhere or whether it can converge. 00:55:15.540 |
and in general Bayesian deep learning and so on. 00:55:21.060 |
how can learning systems deal with uncertainty? 00:55:35.720 |
and you don't know how much you can believe that answer. 00:55:45.820 |
quite poorly calibrated relative to its uncertainties. 00:55:55.460 |
that comes out of the, say the neural network at the end 00:55:58.660 |
and you ask how much more likely is an answer 00:56:02.760 |
of 0.8 versus 0.9, it's not really in any way calibrated 00:56:07.640 |
to the actual reliability of that network and how true it is 00:56:12.640 |
and the further away you move from the training data, 00:56:16.740 |
the more, not only the more wrong the network is, 00:56:24.320 |
And that is a serious issue in a lot of application areas. 00:56:29.320 |
So when you think for instance about medical diagnosis 00:56:31.640 |
as being maybe an epitome of how problematic this can be, 00:56:35.680 |
if you were training your network on a certain set 00:56:38.920 |
of patients, on a certain patient population, 00:56:46.720 |
and that patient is put into a neural network 00:56:51.920 |
but is supremely confident in its wrong answer, 00:57:01.300 |
of how do you produce networks that are calibrated 00:57:06.880 |
in their uncertainty and can also say, you know what, 00:57:31.160 |
because you'd want the network to be able to say, 00:57:33.280 |
you know what, I have no idea what this blob is 00:57:39.280 |
potentially run over a pedestrian that I don't recognize. 00:57:42.800 |
- Is there good mechanisms, ideas of how to allow 00:57:54.040 |
- Certainly people have come up with mechanisms 00:58:00.680 |
deep learning that involves Gaussian processes. 00:58:04.480 |
I mean, there's a slew of different approaches 00:58:09.160 |
There's methods that use ensembles of networks 00:58:17.640 |
Those are actually sometimes surprisingly good 00:58:29.000 |
- Let's cautiously venture back into the land of philosophy 00:58:33.640 |
and speaking of AI systems providing uncertainty, 00:58:41.540 |
as we create more and more intelligent systems, 00:58:43.440 |
it's really important for them to be full of self-doubt 00:58:46.800 |
because if they're given more and more power, 00:58:58.600 |
with autonomous vehicles, it's really important 00:59:00.400 |
to get human supervision when the car is not sure 00:59:09.360 |
So let me ask about sort of the questions of AGI 00:59:21.800 |
but AI people also dream of both understanding 00:59:32.800 |
Is that something you think is within our reach 00:59:41.140 |
- Boy, let me tease apart different parts of that question. 00:59:55.940 |
then I'll talk about the timelines a little bit 01:00:01.500 |
and then talk about, well, what controls does one need 01:00:05.980 |
when protecting, when thinking about protections 01:00:10.540 |
So, I think AGI obviously is a longstanding dream 01:00:15.540 |
that even our early pioneers in the space had, 01:00:21.340 |
the Turing test and so on are the earliest discussions 01:00:27.600 |
We're obviously closer than we were 70 or so years ago, 01:00:41.140 |
are really exquisitely good pattern recognizers 01:00:58.120 |
and you move it to a slightly different version 01:01:00.900 |
of even that same problem, far less one that's different, 01:01:07.200 |
So I think we're nowhere close to the versatility 01:01:24.520 |
So am I desperately worried about the machines 01:01:29.520 |
taking over the universe and starting to kill people 01:01:40.480 |
so you've kind of intuited that superintelligence 01:01:48.160 |
- Superintelligence, we're not even close to intelligence. 01:01:50.480 |
- Even just the greater abilities of generalization 01:02:00.800 |
- Okay, we'll take it, but maybe another tangent 01:02:03.360 |
you can also pick up is can we get in trouble 01:02:08.160 |
- Yes, and that is exactly where I was going. 01:02:16.160 |
I think that it seems to me a little early today 01:02:21.160 |
to figure out protections against a human level 01:02:40.520 |
But we can definitely and have gotten into trouble 01:02:57.880 |
and there's ripple effects that are unpredictable 01:03:04.200 |
that can have dramatic consequences on the outcome. 01:03:11.920 |
I think artificial intelligence exacerbates that, 01:03:15.660 |
But heck, our electric grid is really complicated. 01:03:23.040 |
And we've seen those ripple effects translate 01:03:44.800 |
And we should, and I think it's really important 01:03:50.680 |
in which we can have better interpretability of systems, 01:03:59.120 |
measuring the extent to which a machine learning system 01:04:01.900 |
that was trained in one set of circumstances, 01:04:12.320 |
well, I'm not gonna be able to test my automated vehicle 01:04:20.760 |
But if you trained it on this set of conditions 01:04:31.960 |
then that gives you confidence that the next 50 01:04:36.080 |
So effectively it's testing for generalizability. 01:04:50.180 |
let's make sure robots don't take over the world. 01:04:53.260 |
And then the other place where I think we have a threat, 01:04:57.020 |
which is also important for us to think about 01:04:59.400 |
is the extent to which technology can be abused. 01:05:13.580 |
And that goes back to many other technologies 01:05:27.380 |
And I think, honestly, I would say that to me, 01:05:31.280 |
gene editing and CRISPR is at least as dangerous 01:05:34.420 |
a technology if used badly as machine learning. 01:05:39.420 |
You could create really nasty viruses and such 01:05:58.640 |
whenever we have any really powerful new technology. 01:06:06.820 |
so all the kinds of attacks like security almost threats. 01:06:19.660 |
that can potentially go and targeted execution 01:06:35.740 |
- So if you, in general, if you look at trends in the data, 01:06:42.940 |
So we've been doing overall quite good as a human species. 01:06:48.340 |
- Are you optimistic? - Surprisingly sometimes. 01:06:58.020 |
and fundamentally we tend towards a better world, 01:07:24.140 |
That doesn't mean that most people are, you know, 01:07:28.020 |
altruistic do-gooders, but I think most people mean well. 01:07:32.340 |
But I think it's also really important for us as a society 01:07:51.060 |
I mean, it's very easy to create dysfunctional societies. 01:07:55.140 |
There are certainly multiple psychological experiments 01:08:21.300 |
where people know that to be a successful member of society, 01:08:27.180 |
And one of the things that I sometimes worry about 01:08:31.100 |
is that some societies don't seem to necessarily 01:08:35.140 |
be moving in the forward direction in that regard 01:08:44.780 |
is what makes you be perceived well by your peers. 01:08:50.980 |
It's very easy to degenerate back into a universe 01:09:00.220 |
and still have your peers think you're amazing. 01:09:03.040 |
- It's fun to ask a world-class computer scientist 01:09:07.820 |
and engineer a ridiculously philosophical question 01:09:17.180 |
What is the source of fulfillment, happiness, joy, purpose? 01:09:22.180 |
- When we were starting Coursera in the fall of 2011, 01:09:30.960 |
that was right around the time that Steve Jobs passed away. 01:09:37.740 |
And so the media was full of various famous quotes 01:09:45.500 |
because it resonated with stuff that I'd been feeling 01:09:48.780 |
for even years before that is that our goal in life 01:09:55.100 |
So I think that to me, what gives my life meaning 01:10:00.100 |
is that I would hope that when I am lying there 01:10:05.900 |
on my deathbed and looking at what I'd done in my life, 01:10:09.660 |
that I can point to ways in which I have left the world 01:10:14.660 |
a better place than it was when I entered it. 01:10:20.460 |
This is something I tell my kids all the time 01:10:31.420 |
And in some ways I was, I mean, I wasn't born super wealthy 01:10:34.380 |
or anything like that, but I grew up in an educated family 01:10:37.900 |
with parents who loved me and took care of me 01:10:51.960 |
And my kids, I think, are even more so born to privilege 01:11:00.500 |
especially for those of us who have that opportunity, 01:11:03.920 |
that we use our lives to make the world a better place. 01:11:07.420 |
- I don't think there's a better way to end it. 01:11:17.020 |
And thank you to our presenting sponsor, Cash App. 01:11:21.660 |
by downloading Cash App and using code LEXPODCAST. 01:11:32.400 |
simply connect with me on Twitter @LexFriedman. 01:11:36.280 |
And now let me leave you with some words from Hippocrates, 01:11:41.880 |
who's considered to be the father of medicine. 01:11:50.760 |
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.