back to indexTrump wins! How it happened and what's next
Chapters
0:0 Bestie intros!
4:55 Sacks recaps election night at Mar-a-Lago
8:28 Analyzing the results: how Trump won, why Kamala and the Democratic Party lost
25:55 The failing Democratic coalition, campaign spend disparity, Trump's advantage in earned media
37:59 What mattered most: Policy, Candidate, or Campaign?
50:44 GOP will likely win House and Senate, potential cabinet positions, avoiding neocons
70:42 Cabinet positions, shaking up the unelected bureaucratic branch
88:47 California rejects progressives
95:17 Abortion laws being settled around the US
00:00:00.000 |
Well, let's, uh, let's just go around the horn who voted for Trump. 00:00:04.140 |
Let's all raise their hands for those who voted for Trump. 00:00:59.000 |
By the way, that name, just enjoy that name, Tim Waltz, while you can because you're never 00:01:04.880 |
He's going to be more forgettable than Tim Cain. 00:01:07.120 |
They're going to be doing SNL skits on how forgettable he is. 00:01:23.760 |
We'll start out with a little housekeeping and then we'll get into it. 00:01:24.760 |
So like and subscribe on YouTube, youtube.com/atallin. 00:01:30.580 |
Don't forget the holiday party, allin.com/events. 00:01:35.800 |
We have a couple of great announcements for the holiday party, which I think we are spending 00:01:45.200 |
Andrea Botez will be there doing the opening DJ set and her sister Alex will be joining 00:01:51.080 |
Andrea and Alex will also be playing the Botez sisters. 00:01:53.640 |
We're going to have a chess tournament during the party, which will be super fun. 00:02:14.020 |
You totally told me to go f*** myself and wouldn't give me anything. 00:02:18.400 |
I also blundered my queen and still won on time, which I will always hold dear in my 00:02:24.160 |
If we had given her more time, that was a really tough situation. 00:02:34.480 |
We're doing like a special dinner after the live show and then the party is going to be 00:02:43.800 |
This is not meant to be kind of like the summit type show. 00:02:50.400 |
And if you've got startups that want to join, please come on by, buy some tickets. 00:02:59.560 |
The odds are we're going to lose money on this. 00:03:01.880 |
The idea was to see if we could- How many tickets are we selling? 00:03:13.760 |
How big is the theater and what are we charging for the tickets? 00:03:17.400 |
So there's like, the tickets are like 500 bucks, I think. 00:03:19.320 |
I love you being the moderator and taking all the arrows. 00:03:27.080 |
Remember where they used to have the Exploratorium? 00:03:29.040 |
That building where they built for the World's Fair or whatever. 00:03:36.360 |
We're going to build all the set and everything. 00:03:47.440 |
Unless it's Mar-a-Lago, Saks will not show up. 00:03:49.760 |
I want to just congratulate- It's like, "Oh, we're spending a million 00:03:58.040 |
I want to congratulate someone really special without whom Trump would likely not have been 00:04:03.920 |
So your bravery, your ingenuity, your creativity. 00:04:07.440 |
You led the way and you brought millions of people the direct news they couldn't get anywhere 00:04:15.280 |
You inadvertently architected a system that's helped return Trump to the White House. 00:04:19.000 |
And for that, many people are praising you today. 00:04:23.680 |
How does it feel to have finally accomplished your dream? 00:04:31.680 |
I did see a tweet where somebody gave me a lot of credit for moving the Overton window 00:04:34.080 |
And they said that Jason was indispensable as my foil. 00:04:37.640 |
If I didn't have him to dunk on for four years with my political takes, it wouldn't have 00:04:51.280 |
We need someone to represent the legacy media point of view. 00:04:58.160 |
Sax, you were at Mar-a-Lago on election night. 00:05:00.120 |
I thought it'd just be great if you could tell us a little bit about what the scene 00:05:05.240 |
And when did you guys kind of know that Trump had kind of the victory in the bag? 00:05:12.080 |
Because you had pollster data early or, you know, tell us a little bit about the experience 00:05:17.440 |
Yeah, I went over there, I guess, around 730, I want to say, Eastern Time. 00:05:24.960 |
Tucker was doing a live stream from the library at Mar-a-Lago, had actually never been over 00:05:29.800 |
There was also a dinner going on in the ballroom, which was, I think, primarily for Mar-a-Lago 00:05:36.120 |
And, you know, there were some senators there, members of the campaign. 00:05:39.960 |
And then there was another room set up with a bunch of TVs for basically the staff to 00:05:47.660 |
When I first got there, people were kind of just watching, trying to find out the early 00:05:53.480 |
I would say that the whispers were positive, but people didn't fundamentally know more 00:06:00.040 |
You know, everyone's kind of waiting for the results to come in. 00:06:02.880 |
I did get a chance to take a photo with the president. 00:06:06.400 |
Actually, Elon came in separately around the same time, and we got a very memorable photograph 00:06:13.360 |
When I shook the president's hand, I got to tell you, he was cool as a cucumber. 00:06:18.000 |
Did he feel confident, like he had it in the bag? 00:06:19.880 |
Yeah, I think he was confident, but I don't think he was acting like he had it in the 00:06:25.000 |
But he was just super, super relaxed and calm, and taking photos with everyone, he was in 00:06:30.600 |
So, you remember the moment when his hand touched yours? 00:06:38.560 |
He gives that little shake to exert a little dominance. 00:06:42.800 |
It was just a normal handshake, but my point is I could detect no nervousness whatsoever 00:06:49.880 |
And look, the rest of us, we were nervous, and we were wondering what was going to happen. 00:06:57.240 |
Just hanging out, having cocktails, having dinner, just everyone was meandering, chilling? 00:07:06.920 |
He asked me, "Do you want to sit down at the dinner?" 00:07:10.280 |
And I could have joined him, but then I decided to do the live stream with you guys, and I 00:07:13.520 |
pulled in Don Jr., and we did the live stream with Don Jr. 00:07:19.000 |
Are you officially a Mar-a-Lago member, by the way? 00:07:30.000 |
That's the Palm Beach community, is members of Mar-a-Lago. 00:07:34.240 |
So I think that there were ... It wasn't a huge group of people at Mar-a-Lago, and really, 00:07:41.480 |
all the supporters were convened at the convention center in Palm Beach. 00:07:46.160 |
I think originally they had talked about doing an election night party at Mar-a-Lago, but 00:07:50.120 |
it just got too big, so they moved it to the convention center. 00:07:54.840 |
Whatever it was that I dropped off the live stream with you guys, I then moved to the 00:07:58.720 |
convention center, got back on with Newt, and then we were kind of waiting at the convention 00:08:05.040 |
We were all feeling good, increasingly so, throughout the night. 00:08:07.360 |
I would say that when Pennsylvania finally got called, then I think everyone knew that 00:08:11.840 |
it was in the bag at that point, and it was just a matter of time before the election 00:08:18.280 |
And then at some point, they kind of herded us downstairs into that large ballroom where 00:08:23.960 |
Trump gave his victory speech with the rest of the campaign staff. 00:08:28.440 |
So the final tally, it looks like, is going to be 312 electoral college votes for President 00:08:39.400 |
Just for context, in 2016, Trump won with 304 electoral votes, and Biden won in 2020 00:08:49.300 |
He won all the supposed swing states this year fairly resoundingly. 00:08:54.720 |
There's no real super close calls, there's some close calls, but pretty resounding victory. 00:09:04.760 |
I think that there's many layers of the answer, but I think in its most basic calculation, 00:09:12.680 |
I think that the bottom fell out of the Democratic Party. 00:09:16.760 |
And if you look at why, there's a simple explanation, and then there's the more nuanced explanation. 00:09:26.480 |
I think the simple explanation is they just lost the script. 00:09:31.240 |
I think that there was so many people that just got really tired of being spoken at and 00:09:40.640 |
labeled misogynist, racist, fascist, transphobe, whatever it was. 00:09:49.560 |
And there was just these litany of these judgmental labels that would come out instead of engaging 00:09:57.200 |
So I think the Democratic Party played this game of trying to use identities, genders, 00:10:04.760 |
races as a bid to basically get people that they thought should always vote in their direction 00:10:13.400 |
And instead what happened was people just started to think for themselves and say, "Hold 00:10:17.840 |
I'm just a normal person that wants to be left alone. 00:10:21.640 |
And I think what Donald Trump spoke to was a desire for folks to have economic prosperity, 00:10:28.640 |
a safe neighborhood, a predictable educational curriculum where these kids could go to school, 00:10:34.960 |
not be indoctrinated and come out the other side and just know some useful skills so that 00:10:38.760 |
they could get a good job and do better than they did. 00:10:41.640 |
And all these basic truths ended up on the ballot. 00:10:45.080 |
And so it was a bunch of perception versus just a bunch of hard realities. 00:10:49.520 |
And I think Trump stayed focused and ultimately made sure that people understood that that's 00:10:58.240 |
And I think the Democrats just went to this place of demagoguery and labels. 00:11:05.920 |
And David, I just want you to just to put a pin on how resounding it is. 00:11:12.060 |
In California and New York, which I would say are the two most prolific bastions of 00:11:18.380 |
elitist liberal thinking, Democrats won those states in some of the narrowest margins they've 00:11:28.340 |
I think in 2020, they won California by 29 points. 00:11:33.020 |
It was barely half is what they won by this year. 00:11:41.000 |
It's telling you that the Democrats really need to retool and get back to first principles. 00:11:44.840 |
It was a cataclysmic dismissal of wokeism, of cancel culture, of judgmentalism. 00:11:55.800 |
It was a ringing endorsement of a meritocracy, of just plain simple common sense, of talking 00:12:03.880 |
with people and to people, being able to tolerate disagreements, remaining friends. 00:12:13.860 |
And it was just an absolute resounding victory for just normalcy. 00:12:22.100 |
Jason, do you think that that message got across more clearly in this election than 00:12:28.260 |
ever before, as some have claimed, because of the power of alternative media for reaching 00:12:34.940 |
the audience rather than having everything pushed through reporters in traditional legacy 00:12:40.940 |
In this case, many of the candidates, particularly on the Republican side, went direct to the 00:12:45.620 |
audience through long form podcasts like ours, but also Joe Rogan and Lex and many others. 00:12:51.140 |
And did that move the needle for a lot of people in a way that won this? 00:12:54.500 |
Or was it the policies and the difference alone? 00:12:57.860 |
Well, clearly, being on podcasts was a major part of Trump's strategy that people are starting 00:13:08.500 |
And I think the Democrats just didn't get that. 00:13:10.620 |
Now, stepping back, I think the number one problem here is the candidate that the Democrats 00:13:18.220 |
And probably the close number two is inflation. 00:13:21.900 |
And the economy, as we all know, it's the economy, stupid. 00:13:27.340 |
If you were paying $2 for a cheeseburger at McDonald's, and now it's $4, that's what people 00:13:34.780 |
And the inflation that occurred over this last four years was huge. 00:13:40.020 |
And people cited that over and over and over again. 00:13:43.820 |
So there's probably three buckets you could put this conversation into. 00:13:47.260 |
First, the candidate, Kamala Harris was a terrible candidate. 00:13:52.500 |
And she was anointed and she didn't go through a proper primary. 00:13:55.740 |
I think that's probably number one in this entire thing. 00:14:00.140 |
You're saying you're saying number one is the candidate. 00:14:04.280 |
Number two, I think because remember, Trump was incredibly unpopular as well. 00:14:08.220 |
And all credit Trump for winning and running an incredible campaign. 00:14:15.540 |
Podcasts with JD Vance turned out to be spectacular on podcasts and really delivered the message. 00:14:22.220 |
And you know, the number two is obviously inflation in the economy. 00:14:26.260 |
And then I think number three is the bucket that Chamath started with, which is the country 00:14:31.340 |
really, really does not like being told that they're racist or sexist, etc, cancel culture. 00:14:42.180 |
One of the things that's coming out right now is some of the ads and that will play 00:14:48.160 |
I think this ad sums up exactly how bad Kamala was. 00:14:52.940 |
And we'll combine this ad with just some of the statistics that have come out of how many 00:14:58.700 |
This is Charlemagne the God from the Breakfast Club, for those who don't know, in a Donald 00:15:04.020 |
What taxpayer funded sex changes for prisoners, surgery, for prisoners, for prisoners, every 00:15:11.180 |
transgender inmate in the prison system would have access. 00:15:15.620 |
Hell no, I don't want my taxpayer dollars going to Kamala supports transgender sex changes 00:15:21.700 |
Kamala even supports letting biological men compete against our girls in their sports. 00:15:31.500 |
I'm Donald J. Trump, and I approve this message. 00:15:34.300 |
And so how does Kamala come back from this with black voters, with male voters, with 00:15:39.420 |
people who are tired of having this agenda shoved down their throat? 00:15:43.260 |
Obviously, it's going to be incredibly difficult. 00:15:45.940 |
Plus she was in charge of the border, claimed she wasn't. 00:15:48.700 |
Plus she was in charge of, you know, and Biden were in charge of the economy when inflation 00:15:55.140 |
Terrible candidate combined with a bad track record, combined with a flawless campaign 00:16:02.420 |
And you know, if we pull up this F.T. chart, Nick, that I sent you ahead of time, and I 00:16:09.380 |
tweeted this, you know, Americans love winners and innovation and they hate socialism and 00:16:14.940 |
And if you look at how Trump's support increased, look at this, Chamath. 00:16:19.980 |
Every single demographic, black, Asian, Hispanic, 18 to 29, 30 to 34, female, white college 00:16:27.300 |
men, except for two, 65 year old plus, very moderately, very modestly went left. 00:16:34.300 |
And white college women very modestly went left in terms of increasing support. 00:16:39.580 |
Otherwise a hard shift, right, including in some categories. 00:16:44.140 |
So the biggest shift, right, was in Hispanic and Asian populations. 00:16:48.900 |
And these are groups of people, I think, who you can double click on young people, Hispanic 00:16:56.940 |
I think is what most people have read into that dramatic swing. 00:17:01.420 |
And Hispanics are anti or more traditional family values and that's probably what pushed 00:17:07.860 |
But I wanted to just get your take on that chart, Chamath, in relation to your handicapping 00:17:13.980 |
And then how much Kamala and how much the inflation played into it. 00:17:18.540 |
I think that there are three ways to kind of identify and tell me if you guys think 00:17:24.740 |
Either the policies, the candidate, and the methods of the campaign. 00:17:33.660 |
That's how I kind of break down what happened in the selection cycle. 00:17:36.700 |
There's a big difference between the candidates as people. 00:17:40.300 |
Some people cannot see past the fact that Kamala did not get any primary vote. 00:17:45.140 |
Some people cannot see past the behavior of Donald Trump on Twitter. 00:17:49.820 |
And when he talks to people and how he has talked to people and perceived to be a bully 00:17:54.420 |
and the felony conviction, and some people cannot get past other factors of those two 00:18:00.500 |
I've been saying this since I'm blue in the face, but I'll try it again. 00:18:06.540 |
I think that the mainstream media has been working hand in hand with the Democratic Party 00:18:12.780 |
to propagate and move forward an agenda that tried to vilify Donald Trump. 00:18:19.100 |
I did not know that when I initially encountered him in 2015 as a candidate. 00:18:25.940 |
But what you're supposed to do as an adult is once you start to see a pattern of behavior, 00:18:32.300 |
you know, this is for the safety, security of your family. 00:18:36.500 |
This is about how you think about economically taking care of your family. 00:18:40.020 |
Like, you have to re-underwrite decisions from first principles. 00:18:42.780 |
You must be prepared to change your mind when you see important information. 00:18:48.260 |
And I have said this till I blew in the face, but I'll say it again. 00:18:52.260 |
If I think of all of the people in the political infrastructure of America that I have met 00:18:59.580 |
and spent time with from Bill Clinton on, I remember sitting and having dinner with 00:19:04.460 |
Barack Obama the day of Brexit and getting a note that he read and he said, "Oh my gosh," 00:19:19.520 |
The Democrats only come to me to ask me for money. 00:19:24.820 |
The only politician that has ever called me just to have a conversation, just to say thank 00:19:33.140 |
you and be kind, the only one has been Donald Trump. 00:19:39.020 |
Of all of the people, every other person has only ever called and asked me for money. 00:19:46.260 |
I think what it means is that there has been a concerted effort to perturb the way that 00:19:57.660 |
Separately, there's been a concerted effort to prop up whoever is sitting against him 00:20:06.800 |
And I think this is an opportunity to finally acknowledge that if you trust these traditional 00:20:12.260 |
legacy sources of helping you to get to a decision, you're going to get tricked. 00:20:18.700 |
There's that old saying, "Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice, shame on me because 00:20:29.500 |
And I think that for a lot of Americans, that is what happened. 00:20:34.740 |
I think they were able to see through the veneer of an attempt to malign and corner 00:20:42.980 |
somebody, and on the other side, an attempt to basically play on vibes and feelings and 00:20:53.540 |
That is not what they want in running the country. 00:20:56.460 |
They want somebody serious running the country where you can have disagreements with them 00:21:01.420 |
and you can still find an opportunity to work together with those people. 00:21:06.460 |
JS: Sax, do you think about how important the policy versus the individual versus the 00:21:15.300 |
way they ran the campaign, the media, and how they reached people as kind of three vectors? 00:21:21.280 |
And if so, how would you kind of rank those three in importance and what changed people's 00:21:24.540 |
votes and got them to vote differently than they did in the last election? 00:21:27.340 |
Ax: Yeah, I think it's a pretty good framework. 00:21:29.060 |
I mean, you have the message, you have the messenger, and I guess you have the campaign 00:21:35.420 |
I think it's a little bit unfair to blame this entire defeat on Kamala Harris being 00:21:46.900 |
However, I don't think she was dealt a particularly strong hand. 00:21:50.860 |
The fact of the matter is that we did have rampant inflation in this country that really 00:21:57.740 |
hurt people in their pocketbooks every time they went to the grocery store. 00:22:01.860 |
And that resulted from the trillions of spending that was agreed to by virtually the entire 00:22:07.580 |
Remember, not only did they pass trillions in spending, they wanted four and a half trillion 00:22:13.980 |
And the only reason that didn't happen is because Manchin and Sinema voted against it. 00:22:18.220 |
Can you imagine how much worse inflation would have been? 00:22:22.180 |
Manchin was driven into retirement, and Sinema was basically kicked out of the party. 00:22:25.460 |
She effectively told us that at the All-In Summit. 00:22:28.260 |
So this defeat is on the entire Democratic Party. 00:22:31.420 |
The Democratic Party was in support of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's agenda. 00:22:35.960 |
They were in support of the de facto open border policies. 00:22:39.140 |
They were in support of the soft-on-crime Soros D.A. decarceral policies. 00:22:45.040 |
You can see that even in California, which is a deep blue state, there's a huge backlash 00:22:49.640 |
to this sort of insane soft-on-crime agenda the Democrats have. 00:22:55.720 |
70% of California voted for Prop 36, which basically reversed the excesses of Prop 47, 00:23:03.200 |
which a decade ago basically made shoplifting legal in California. 00:23:07.540 |
You know who opposed Prop 36 despite its massive popularity? 00:23:11.920 |
Kamala Harris wouldn't say whether she supported it or not. 00:23:14.680 |
So what you see is that even in blue states, the Democratic Party elites are completely 00:23:22.140 |
And then finally, you've got foreign policy, where I think that the Democratic agenda basically 00:23:28.480 |
wanting to engage in a proxy war with Vladimir Putin because he's the incarnation of all 00:23:32.800 |
evil, that I think is blown up in the collective West face. 00:23:36.760 |
That has been a disaster that was supported by the entire Democratic Party. 00:23:41.000 |
So on issue after issue that I think mattered in this election, you cannot just put the 00:23:48.200 |
It's got to be on the Democratic Party as a whole. 00:23:50.540 |
And just to echo what Chamath said about the cultural stuff, they've talked down to us. 00:24:05.200 |
They turned Elon into an enemy, which was the single worst own goal in history. 00:24:16.520 |
But with Elon, it wasn't just disinviting him or never inviting him to the EV summit. 00:24:21.280 |
It goes all the way back to Lorena Gonzalez's tweet, telling him to F off and leave the 00:24:27.100 |
So look, the Democratic Party as a whole has to own this, and they're not going to start 00:24:32.200 |
winning elections again until they have an improvement in their agenda, not just their 00:24:38.920 |
So Saxe, is this the nature of democracy, that over time, when you have a two-party 00:24:44.880 |
system and one party veers too far to the left or one party veers too far to the right, 00:24:50.880 |
people jump ship to the other party, and ultimately they pull the policies of the party that they 00:24:58.080 |
And that's the way democracy is supposed to work and has worked historically? 00:25:03.240 |
And do we project that four years from now, the Democrats will need to be and need to 00:25:07.920 |
adjust to the center, and we'll see less of this extremism because of the way the voting 00:25:14.360 |
- I think that's a very interesting question is whether the Democrats have the necessary 00:25:21.960 |
I would say that one of them does, if you look at Matt Iglesias, who's someone I've 00:25:25.960 |
sparred with on TwitterX, who is a Democrat partisan. 00:25:30.880 |
He basically tweeted a list of principles that he thought the Democrat Party needed 00:25:36.720 |
I said, laughing my ass off, this is a list of Republican principles. 00:25:40.040 |
It was all about opposing woke and being in favor of merit and innovation. 00:25:46.840 |
If the Democratic Party wants to adopt these principles, that's a wonderful thing for the 00:25:56.000 |
You look at this tweet by Ari Fleischer, where he talks about who the Democratic Party now 00:26:02.000 |
I think that this is a really important tweet, because it sort of tells you, Sax, who's going 00:26:08.720 |
- If these are the only people left in the room, the last thing they're going to do is 00:26:13.840 |
So what you see is that the Democratic Party base is these very affluent, very overeducated, 00:26:23.120 |
And frankly, I wonder whether they're too out of touch to know they're out of touch. 00:26:29.560 |
And I just don't think they're going to cede control of the party without a fight. 00:26:35.080 |
And frankly, they've disappeared so far up their own woke asses that I don't think they 00:26:43.700 |
So if these people stay in control of the party, and these are the people who you're 00:26:47.760 |
seeing having a mental breakdown on TikTok, they're posting all the videos, they're insulting 00:26:53.800 |
And let's face it, it's not just on TikTok, it's on the legacy media, it's on MSDNC. 00:26:58.880 |
It's basically the legacy media who are trying to diagnose a psychosis in the American electorate 00:27:07.760 |
If those people stay in control, I think that the Republicans could have an electoral majority 00:27:15.500 |
And I'll go even further, which is I think that the Democrats will lose one of California 00:27:26.880 |
- Do you think that the intelligentsia, quote-unquote, the Bill Gates, Reid Hoffmans of the world 00:27:33.400 |
that funds Dustin Moskovitz, that funds the Democratic apparatus at the highest level, 00:27:40.520 |
if they can't change, what are the odds that the state infrastructure or the local infrastructure 00:27:48.400 |
I think maybe on the margins, the local infrastructure can change more quickly and adeptly because 00:27:54.120 |
it just costs a lot less money and it's much more concentrated. 00:27:58.280 |
But I think the states are very laggard in that sense. 00:28:01.480 |
And I think that they take the table scraps of what's left over. 00:28:04.160 |
So if you have the Democrats lead, there is no chance that unless they change the planks 00:28:10.300 |
at their platform, that the state legislatures in New York and California are going to change 00:28:18.320 |
So let me just underscore an important aspect for you guys on this, which is the amount 00:28:24.120 |
And obviously they saw a significant negative return. 00:28:26.580 |
They lost across the board, Senate majority, House majority, governorships, the White House, 00:28:33.520 |
Here, you can see the difference between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign spending. 00:28:37.960 |
Harris campaign spent nearly $900 million, the Trump campaign, 350 million. 00:28:43.640 |
If you look at the super PACs, the super PAC spent 1.4 billion on the Dem side, roughly 00:28:48.840 |
400 million, 450 million on the Republican side. 00:28:52.280 |
And if you scroll down in some of these key Senate races, the Dems far outspent the Republicans 00:28:59.440 |
The Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown, $58 million of spending, Bernie Moreno, 21 million and 00:29:06.880 |
Jon Tester, 84 million of spending, Tim Sheehy, 22 million, Tim Sheehy won the election. 00:29:13.740 |
So across the board, the spending was greater. 00:29:21.840 |
So my question again is, does this not necessitate attack to the center for the Democrats? 00:29:29.920 |
And if they're going to continue to lose like this, they will not continue to maintain the 00:29:33.540 |
same policy agenda that got them into this position in the first place. 00:29:37.280 |
J. Cal, do you think that the Democratic Party will need to attack to the center and that 00:29:41.160 |
they're going to start to adjust because of this? 00:29:44.280 |
They knew that going into this election and they started moving to the center. 00:29:48.360 |
It was laughable in some cases because you have like Kamala talking about providing sex 00:29:53.680 |
changes for prisoners and you know, all of those receipts came out. 00:29:58.260 |
So even as she started to try to get to the center, people didn't buy it. 00:30:03.800 |
But what's very interesting about spend there and the genius of Trump is earned media. 00:30:10.040 |
When you are trying to get hits in media, you will put them into two buckets, paid and 00:30:17.720 |
Paid is considered what you do if you can't earn media. 00:30:20.860 |
All in podcast is an example of earned media. 00:30:29.540 |
And I think that was, you know, what Trump did. 00:30:32.000 |
And importantly, someone that comes on the show earns that. 00:30:36.840 |
So that's the piece of this that I think is so important. 00:30:42.040 |
But the candidate that the Democrats put out there was so bad that she could not even. 00:30:48.520 |
And I think Saks is, you know, master at setting people up here. 00:30:54.400 |
The Democrats put up a horrible, horrible candidate. 00:30:58.220 |
And I know Saks is saying, oh, it's not Kamala's fault. 00:31:00.540 |
Kamala could not go on Joe Rogan because they knew that it would be so embarrassing and 00:31:06.340 |
that she would get so embarrassed that it would lose her votes. 00:31:10.020 |
His doom loop, you know, observation from, I don't know, eight weeks ago, you had that 00:31:17.680 |
The more she spoke, the more she started going down. 00:31:20.740 |
She was leading Trump at one point on Polly market in some of these places. 00:31:24.960 |
And she absolutely proved that she could not communicate well. 00:31:30.180 |
And so and I just want to just circle back to the point about inflation. 00:31:35.860 |
Here's the McDonald's price increases that I was mentioning before. 00:31:38.940 |
End of 2019, you could buy a McChicken for a buck twenty nine. 00:31:42.540 |
And in mid 2024, it was three dollars and eighty nine cents. 00:31:45.920 |
The majority of Americans wind up going to Taco Bell, McDonald's every week, some cases 00:31:53.760 |
You cannot discount exactly how profound this cost of eating food and buying groceries had 00:32:03.760 |
It is the number one issue, I think, this election. 00:32:06.680 |
We can talk in our bubble about it, but this is what I mean, inflation. 00:32:14.980 |
How much does it cost to put food on the table? 00:32:17.360 |
How much does it cost to drive from point A to point B? 00:32:20.360 |
I want to send my kid to a school where they go and they learn the ABCs and the one two 00:32:24.980 |
threes because they're going to have to graduate and compete with India and China. 00:32:29.400 |
I don't want to worry about indoctrination and all this other stuff. 00:32:33.360 |
Oh, look, I did predict the doom loop for Kamala Harris two months ago because she is 00:32:37.360 |
just not good at interviews or being off the cuff or being unscripted. 00:32:46.680 |
However, and I would say the biggest problem in her campaign is that she would neither 00:32:50.600 |
defend the Biden Harris record nor say what she would do differently. 00:32:58.320 |
And I think it's because she was in a really tough position that her own party put her 00:33:02.720 |
in, which is they said, you can't criticize Joe Biden because he's the sitting president. 00:33:08.080 |
But at the same time, you can't defend him either because he's so unpopular. 00:33:17.800 |
They should have, frankly, looking back, they should have just let Joe Biden defend his 00:33:23.280 |
The old man must have been in the White House gnashing his teeth, saying, please put me 00:33:32.940 |
The Democrats wouldn't defend their own record because it was so bad. 00:33:36.440 |
You have to put some blame for that, not just on Kamala, but on the entire party. 00:33:41.760 |
Well, Saxtra, it's so obvious that that technique they use to defeat Trump in 2020, after those 00:33:47.480 |
chaotic four years, was, hey, do you want normalcy? 00:33:58.080 |
I said what tactic was that, 15 million extra votes? 00:34:02.760 |
Please don't start with the conspiracy theories. 00:34:04.760 |
We're really going to say that this has to be a conspiracy theory now? 00:34:15.880 |
Just so you know, the Y-axis starts at 50 million, so don't be a little too crazy. 00:34:22.280 |
Before we go down this rabbit hole, let me just finish my point, then you guys can go 00:34:25.040 |
to Conspiracy Corner and say the election was stolen. 00:34:27.800 |
The point I'm making here is, obviously, Biden ran a very successful campaign against Trump 00:34:33.440 |
based on vibes and based on his creating chaos in the country, in most people's mind, and 00:34:42.840 |
It just didn't work this time because they had to defend their record on the border. 00:34:47.080 |
They needed to defend their record on the economy, and Saxtra's exactly right. 00:34:52.080 |
And how do you not talk about their own record? 00:34:55.960 |
And their record had some good bright spots to it, record low unemployment, record high 00:35:00.920 |
stock market, and we tamed inflation, and they could have had a really great discussion 00:35:05.660 |
about inflation and just said, "Hey, listen, both of the last two terms, there was a lot 00:35:10.020 |
of spending, and so inflation manifested during the last four years, and hey, we tamed it. 00:35:18.360 |
We still have a record high stock market, and we tamed inflation. 00:35:24.480 |
I can communicate that better than the presidential candidate. 00:35:30.280 |
Freiberg, let me just go back to your point about the money. 00:35:31.800 |
It is true that the Democrats had roughly three times as much money as the Republicans 00:35:38.680 |
The Democrats had something like a billion dollars for this campaign, the Republicans 00:35:45.600 |
The Republicans obviously still won in a landslide. 00:35:49.120 |
That excludes the super PACs, which had additional funding that were going towards supporting 00:35:53.680 |
My point is just the Democrats had a massive advantage on the money side. 00:35:56.520 |
They also, I think, had a massive advantage on what you would call the legacy media side. 00:36:03.840 |
I don't know how you put a value, a dollar value on what the legacy media has done, not 00:36:08.760 |
just in this election cycle, but for the last eight or nine years. 00:36:12.560 |
They have basically called Donald Trump a Nazi, a fascist, a traitor. 00:36:29.520 |
They've been yelling that at the top of their lungs now for at least four years. 00:36:35.280 |
I would just say that the legacy media spell is broken. 00:36:41.040 |
And I think that the repudiation of the legacy media is one of the most important results 00:36:48.960 |
It just shows that the Democrats had, I don't know how you valued, a trillion-dollar propaganda 00:36:53.800 |
machine on their side, and Trump was still able to win. 00:36:57.920 |
And you have to, at the end of the day, say that that's the result not just of alternative 00:37:05.760 |
I think those were absolutely necessary enablers. 00:37:08.760 |
It's also the fact that Trump has a trillion-dollar personality and is a tremendously gifted communicator 00:37:17.600 |
But finally, you have to say that the issues are on Trump's side. 00:37:24.200 |
They see that the spending and the bureaucracy in Washington are out of control. 00:37:28.240 |
They do not want woke cancel culture anymore. 00:37:31.360 |
They see America getting over-involved in foreign wars. 00:37:35.600 |
They want the spending to be brought back home where it benefits them. 00:37:40.080 |
These are the key points of the Trump agenda. 00:37:42.760 |
And at the end of the day, whatever you want to say about Trump, he ran a campaign based 00:37:59.800 |
I just want to go around the horn real quick and ask each of you guys, once again, I'm 00:38:03.280 |
going to ask you one more question after this. 00:38:06.440 |
Was it the policy sacks, as you're proclaiming, is what a lot of people voted on? 00:38:10.240 |
Was it the issues with the candidate, the individual? 00:38:14.640 |
Of those three, what mattered most, do you think, in terms of moving votes? 00:38:18.580 |
Listen, I don't think you can separate the man from the message or the messenger from 00:38:23.480 |
Listen, if you had a conventional Republican out there, I don't think that they could have 00:38:28.840 |
overcome the trillion-dollar propaganda machine of the legacy media. 00:38:34.380 |
That being said, I think if Donald Trump had been campaigning with Mitt Romney's message 00:38:41.100 |
or Mitch McConnell's message, I don't think he would have gone anywhere. 00:38:44.380 |
I don't even think he would have been the Republican nominee. 00:38:46.980 |
You have to say that Trump, since 2016, has tapped into something very deep in the American 00:38:53.820 |
And, you know, this is something we can get into. 00:38:56.380 |
But I think that if you look back now over the last 10 years, it's clear that he's the 00:39:00.540 |
transformational figure in American politics. 00:39:07.300 |
The policies, the individual, or the campaign tactics? 00:39:11.060 |
It's very clearly this had to do, you know, primarily with Kamala. 00:39:16.340 |
It is the candidate and how she was selected. 00:39:18.940 |
Yeah, I mean, obviously, if you had the same track record... 00:39:22.140 |
It's interesting for you to say that as a Dem, right, because I think that may have 00:39:38.420 |
It is clear that it was her, because I will say, if you had put up Friedberg, and I think 00:39:43.700 |
it's great that you're forcing us to pick one of the three, and it's a hard thing to 00:39:47.780 |
do, but if you had picked Dean Phillips and Shapiro, I think they would have beat Trump 00:39:52.820 |
Or, because remember, Trump was phenomenally unpopular. 00:39:55.940 |
And I think the big question that's going to come out of this is how did Elon do getting 00:40:01.460 |
young men, and how did Joe Rogan and podcasts like ours do at getting young men to come 00:40:07.060 |
That's something we haven't talked about yet. 00:40:08.220 |
And I feel like that could be the one thing that comes out of this election over the coming 00:40:13.380 |
years that we look at that'll be the sustainable change, is that young men are now voting, 00:40:20.540 |
and they want to vote for something very different than white women or old people. 00:40:25.940 |
And Chamath, what is your read on what mattered most? 00:40:31.500 |
If you had to rank them, I think the policies of the Democratic Party are fundamentally 00:40:38.060 |
They've become the exact opposite of where they were even 20 years ago. 00:40:42.060 |
So the Democrats used to be the protector of free speech. 00:40:55.700 |
Now they are more likely to get mangled into all of these foreign misadventures in partnership 00:41:02.180 |
with the military-industrial complex, whereas the Republicans have been a bulwark to war. 00:41:10.380 |
I mean, that was the scariest and oddest turn of events. 00:41:13.480 |
So I think that what happened is the policies, they just lost their way. 00:41:17.580 |
Now the question is, was it purposeful or was it by accident? 00:41:21.960 |
And I think that belies the bigger question, which is just the people in charge of the 00:41:28.140 |
Democratic Party, I think to Sachs's point, do they even have a sense of that they have 00:41:33.940 |
to change or are they just so now fundamentally out of touch and they just believe what they 00:41:38.820 |
believe so ferociously, they're going to have to go through maybe three or four or five 00:41:43.560 |
more elections of just getting totally trounced in order to learn the lesson. 00:41:46.860 |
Okay, I'll wear my McLaughlin hat and say Chamath, right answer. 00:41:51.960 |
Now my next question back to you Chamath is, I've had a lot of conversations in the last 00:41:59.160 |
few days with good friends, with people I'm close with, with family and so on. 00:42:05.200 |
What do you think before you ask the next question? 00:42:07.600 |
I think policy matters, but here's the stumbling block. 00:42:11.240 |
If you talk to anyone that did not vote for Trump and voted for Kamala Harris, that is 00:42:16.640 |
a, you know, kind of reasonable people or what, you know, I don't want to kind of classify 00:42:23.980 |
people, but people that you would normally have decent long form conversations with, 00:42:28.040 |
and you start talking about specific policy issues with them, the conversation keeps coming 00:42:33.620 |
back to Trump, the person in my experience, people can't see past a person who is a quote 00:42:38.680 |
convicted felon, as they claim, who is taking away women's rights, who is a bully who is 00:42:44.580 |
Who else is influenced by his past behavior and things he said and the way he's said things 00:42:50.000 |
We can, we can proclaim that there was a lot of misrepresentation about Trump in the, in 00:42:53.420 |
the legacy media, but there were a lot of tweets that Trump put out that were off-putting 00:42:59.300 |
So I want you, Chamath, to speak to the many individuals out there who are good people 00:43:04.580 |
who feel disenfranchised, who are not like the funny people you can make fun of on libs 00:43:09.520 |
of TikTok or what have you, but just everyday normal people that said, I really don't trust 00:43:14.820 |
I really don't believe that this is a good person. 00:43:17.900 |
And I think that the policies make more sense. 00:43:20.580 |
I agree with a lot of the policy issues, but frankly, the guy doesn't seem like the right 00:43:27.460 |
And can you speak to that person to help them kind of see past the individual to the policies 00:43:33.100 |
and have trust and faith that this individual can actually shepherd this nation forward? 00:43:38.540 |
There are so many very powerful examples of how the media colluded with the Democratic 00:43:48.700 |
Party to fundamentally lie about things that actually happened when it relates to Donald 00:43:58.620 |
One of the most simple and powerful was the lie about Charlottesville. 00:44:04.740 |
When I processed Charlottesville, I'm probably one of those people, David, that you talk 00:44:11.300 |
I was just so scared and angry and I took at face value what the media said that Donald 00:44:24.020 |
And then I was really angry at Donald Trump until I saw the footage and saw that it was 00:44:35.020 |
And that is just an incredible shirking of responsibility that the media has undertaken. 00:44:39.900 |
The deviousness, the dishonesty, it's really bad. 00:44:48.580 |
As a grown up rational man, as the head of my family, I need to re-underwrite where I'm 00:44:57.100 |
Well, head of my family with Nat, when she lets me be, but anyways, I can feel her, I 00:45:05.280 |
can feel that one line, "Keep that line in, Nick, I am the head of my family." 00:45:24.960 |
The thing is, I started to re-underwrite and I do that every day in my day job. 00:45:37.680 |
When things are going well, I need to do more of those things. 00:45:39.920 |
When things are not going well, I need to re-underwrite. 00:45:52.360 |
There was periods where I was on top of the world and everything was working. 00:45:57.080 |
Then there were waves where things were not working, but I still had to show up and do 00:46:02.160 |
As it's turning out, in those darkest hours was when I probably have made some of my absolute 00:46:10.640 |
That would not have happened if I did not keep my feet on the ground and constantly 00:46:15.160 |
re-underwrite and try to challenge my biases. 00:46:18.960 |
There are so many examples that have happened to Trump that when you actually unpack them, 00:46:26.900 |
That is why it's important for folks to be able to suspend that judgment. 00:46:33.280 |
The second thing I would say is then you saw four years of the man in office. 00:46:39.160 |
If you actually separate the interpretation by the media who frankly just hate him with 00:46:48.000 |
what he actually did, you take a step back and you're like, "Man, these accomplishments 00:46:54.200 |
For example, let's look at what happened with the Abraham Accords. 00:46:57.680 |
We have never been closer to substantial and sustained peace in the Middle East in any 00:47:04.880 |
era of government under any president than we were when Jared Kushner on behalf of Donald 00:47:18.120 |
All of that happened as a result of the incoming government wanting to undo what was so logically 00:47:31.040 |
Again, I just go back to David, all of these normal people, and I know a lot of them as 00:47:38.440 |
>>Corey: You guys need to just take a step back and take a beat and just think about 00:47:44.320 |
How do so many normal, high-functioning, well-intended people switch sides? 00:47:52.240 |
>>Corey: Now, J. Cal, let me ask you the flip side of the coin. 00:47:55.660 |
You have expressed publicly, recently, even on a podcast yesterday, with Sachs in vigorous 00:48:02.460 |
debate on this show many times, reservations about Trump and the character of Trump. 00:48:09.280 |
How do you feel ... You obviously align with the policies that he's highlighted and indicated. 00:48:16.200 |
>>Corey: Do you see past the person, or do you still have a strong degree of reservation 00:48:20.760 |
Do you see that playing out in your cohort, friends, family, what have you, that there's 00:48:30.120 |
I think the thing we have to do now is come together as a country. 00:48:34.560 |
It's great that it was not a debatable election and we're not going to have riots at the Capitol 00:48:42.600 |
Now it's time to actually look at what Trump said, and then we will grade him on what he 00:48:50.640 |
If he is able to hang out with the cohort of Elon and Chamath and Sachs and J.D. Vance, 00:49:01.600 |
Now there's a lot of people speculating he will turn on Chamath, he will turn on Sachs, 00:49:06.680 |
he will turn on Elon, and that relationship will end in the next year or two. 00:49:11.800 |
Will Trump actually do the things he says he's going to do? 00:49:17.480 |
Well, he's not going to have a national abortion ban. 00:49:20.200 |
He's not going to kick people out who get college degrees here. 00:49:24.000 |
Remember he said on the show he's going to staple the green guard to it. 00:49:27.240 |
But then there's other, and he said he's going to end the Ukraine, the war in Ukraine on 00:49:32.080 |
So let's make a list of all the things he promised, and like anybody else, let's judge 00:49:40.100 |
Now some of the things he promised, like the mass deportation of 15 million people, I think 00:49:44.880 |
a lot of people even on this podcast probably don't agree with. 00:49:48.600 |
I don't think anybody here wants to see 15 million people who came here to have a better 00:49:53.520 |
life and who are working hard and who are productive members of our society literally 00:50:00.400 |
The 500,000 that are criminals or a million, sure, nobody wants to see them get a free 00:50:06.880 |
But there's going to be some of the items on his agenda that are going to be very uncomfortable 00:50:12.360 |
to see executed, and some of them would be amazing and miracles. 00:50:15.480 |
If he comes in and all of a sudden Ukraine war is settled, fantastic. 00:50:20.620 |
If he starts dragging a million people every two or three months out of the country, that 00:50:27.560 |
could be absolutely disastrous and incredibly hard to watch happen in America. 00:50:33.360 |
So we've got to judge him based on his actions. 00:50:37.780 |
And I really hope, the thing that gives me hope is the fact that Sachs, Chamath, Elon, 00:50:44.820 |
So I'm going to move on to the rest of the election, the other races. 00:50:51.800 |
Let's talk about the House and the Senate, Sachs. 00:50:54.000 |
In the House, there's 37 races that have yet to be called, but it looks like the Republicans 00:51:00.840 |
need about 12 more to be called to have a majority. 00:51:05.060 |
I mean, according to Polly Market, it's 99% that the Republicans will have the majority 00:51:10.360 |
The Republicans have control of the Senate, and Trump is in the White House. 00:51:16.120 |
What are the top policy items that the Republicans will pursue with this degree of legislative 00:51:28.300 |
And how are they kind of getting together to figure out what and how to execute those 00:51:33.780 |
items in the weeks and months after January 20th? 00:51:37.580 |
Well, so first of all, I think the Senate majority matters a lot in terms of Trump getting 00:51:44.620 |
Because if he was just at 51, let's call it, it would be quite hard. 00:51:49.360 |
Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski tend to be very, very moderate Republicans and would 00:51:57.260 |
oppose, I think, a lot of conservative appointments. 00:52:00.780 |
Trump's already at 53 senators, and there's two more that are still up for grabs and waiting 00:52:06.860 |
So you might get to 54 in the next week or so. 00:52:09.660 |
It just means he's gonna have a freer range on appointments. 00:52:11.800 |
I think that'd be really good for Bobby Kennedy. 00:52:15.060 |
I think it might be harder to get Bobby Kennedy confirmed for a major cabinet post with 51, 00:52:23.220 |
I think that's a really great thing for the country. 00:52:26.060 |
There's other appointments in a similar vein that I think would be easier for Trump to 00:52:30.820 |
In terms of the rest of the agenda, I mean, Trump clearly does wanna end the war in Ukraine. 00:52:38.620 |
I don't think that's realistic because, frankly, the Ukrainians are not willing to make the 00:52:44.980 |
They're not in a place where they're willing to make a deal. 00:52:47.540 |
I still think that what Trump was saying during the campaign, if you look at it as expression 00:52:52.180 |
of his motivations and where his sentiments are coming from, they were good sentiments. 00:52:56.880 |
But if he can't solve it on day one because Ukrainians don't wanna make a deal, I can't 00:53:00.340 |
really fault him for that, but I think he'll try. 00:53:03.580 |
I think that on Doge, there's clearly a strong desire of many in the Republican Party and 00:53:09.580 |
Elon and the people that Elon brought with him for major government reform. 00:53:18.060 |
I think that we have to get as much of that passed as possible in the first, certainly 00:53:23.580 |
- There's a necessity for legislative action to get all the cuts in federal spending that 00:53:30.660 |
I mean, if Elon's objective is cutting a trillion dollars... 00:53:33.260 |
- There might be some things you can just do through executive orders, and they should 00:53:36.620 |
do as much as they can, but I think you do need some congressional action as well. 00:53:40.540 |
This is an area where it's just gonna be really hard because spending is a bipartisan problem, 00:53:46.060 |
and it's gonna be really hard to jam through the type of deep reform that we really should 00:53:54.940 |
But I think that now there's a shot because Trump does have majorities in the House and 00:53:59.000 |
Senate that he can at least get something through, so at least we have a shot at getting 00:54:04.460 |
Are we gonna get two trillion in cuts like Elon wants? 00:54:08.620 |
I doubt you're gonna be able to pass that through Congress, but do you start with that 00:54:12.820 |
number and then work your way down to a number that you can get both parties to support? 00:54:24.780 |
But I think reforming the bureaucracy is just such a huge theme coming out of this election, 00:54:31.020 |
and we just have to figure out how to get that done, and we have the mandate. 00:54:36.340 |
- And the federal government is such a large sprawling, it is the largest organization 00:54:41.260 |
on earth except for maybe the CCP, and in that sense, you really have to have leverage 00:54:47.740 |
in leadership to be able to realize that degree of action at that scale, so the cabinet positions 00:54:57.700 |
And maybe we can talk a little bit about who are the folks in the orbit of Donald Trump 00:55:04.700 |
and the transition team that are being considered for different cabinet posts? 00:55:09.380 |
And as an advisor, or let's call you a theoretical advisor to the transition team, what are the 00:55:17.960 |
How would you kind of advise them who to look for that could really realize the outcome 00:55:24.300 |
- Well, I have no influence on this process, so I'm just totally spitballing, but people 00:55:30.580 |
who I think are excellent, I'm gonna put Bobby Kennedy right at the top of the list. 00:55:38.580 |
I think that Bobby has an opportunity to allow the transparency of information that will 00:55:45.320 |
allow folks to keep doing what we've done or to change course in a way that right now 00:55:53.000 |
I think is a little bit more difficult than it needs to be. 00:56:00.880 |
I think he's a, if you remember back to the Republican primaries, there was only one person 00:56:08.200 |
that did not attack Donald Trump, and it was Vivek. 00:56:10.280 |
I think he believed in what Donald Trump was doing and was willing to sort of embrace and 00:56:19.440 |
I don't know what role that looks like, but I just think that he would be exceptional. 00:56:24.520 |
There's some rumors that he's gonna run for governor of Ohio, but he'd be amazing in the 00:56:31.640 |
Yeah, just to go through the list, I think Tulsi Gabbard is so awesome. 00:56:38.760 |
- The rumor is veteran affairs, but hopefully it's at least that. 00:56:48.720 |
You know, there's another race that's going on that's really below the surface but is 00:56:51.200 |
extremely important, and that is the new Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. 00:56:59.920 |
- Well, it's John Thune versus Cornyn from Texas, and Mike Lee has been sort of agitating. 00:57:06.300 |
It's not clear that Mike Lee will throw his hat in the ring. 00:57:11.660 |
If Mike Lee, who is from Utah, doesn't, we should really go with whoever he recommends. 00:57:16.500 |
I really trust that Mike Lee will represent the MAGA agenda, whereas quite frankly, the 00:57:22.340 |
other candidates will be a continuation of Mitch. 00:57:25.740 |
And this is Trump's moment to weigh in on that. 00:57:33.860 |
He can get anything through the Republican caucus. 00:57:37.740 |
And I think that he could weigh in right now in the Senate Majority race and make sure 00:57:44.220 |
If you get a continuation of Mitch McConnell, you will not get real reform through the Senate. 00:57:50.100 |
Mitch McConnell was one of Trump's biggest opponents. 00:57:53.820 |
So there would be alternatives, but I think Trump would have to step in and act. 00:57:57.660 |
There's some talk about Rick Scott from Florida being a candidate. 00:58:00.500 |
I think he'd be very good if he's still in the race. 00:58:03.580 |
Or just go right over the top and go with a Mike Lee. 00:58:06.940 |
This is your moment to basically put in a loyalist. 00:58:10.340 |
And then the big cabinet positions that are left, I think defense, probably somebody like 00:58:14.740 |
Rick Grinnell, who's already worked for Trump and was the DNI right at the end, I think. 00:58:21.900 |
And then in Treasury, it's, you know, I think people say it's between Scott Besant and John 00:58:34.060 |
But then, you know, I saw like you saw Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell this morning said he 00:58:37.460 |
would not step aside if asked to resign by Donald Trump. 00:58:44.580 |
So, you know, I mean, the room, I don't want to say too much, but I think this is pretty 00:58:50.420 |
I think that it's not to say he's going to get it. 00:58:55.940 |
I think that what a lot of people in let's call it the MAGA movement, the America First 00:59:00.900 |
movement are going to be looking at very closely is do neocons worm their way into this administration. 00:59:10.900 |
He ran in opposition to forever wars, I think was a major part of his appeal. 00:59:15.560 |
It's what allowed him to shatter the Bush dynasty. 00:59:18.060 |
It's what I think really hurt Kamala in terms of having the Chinese embrace her. 00:59:22.300 |
So it's a major part of his, I'd say, not just appeal, but also his legacy that he will 00:59:29.640 |
But the problem is that the blob keeps infiltrating Trump administration, or they did, they infiltrated 00:59:36.620 |
Trump one by putting in John Bolton and Esper and all these guys who frankly betrayed Trump. 00:59:42.860 |
So I think a lot of people are looking closely at will neocons be able to worm their way 00:59:47.900 |
And if they do, it's a very, it would be very, very sad, I think. 00:59:51.840 |
The difference this time around, which is so incredible, is that you're now seeing on 00:59:56.840 |
X people asking all the neocons to be named and shamed, and they're creating these lists 01:00:04.320 |
It's the most incredible thing I've ever seen, where have you espoused those views in the 01:00:10.760 |
If so, the likelihood that somebody will raise an alarm bell now so that you can't get near 01:00:17.340 |
this administration, I've never seen anything like that before, actually. 01:00:23.320 |
Here's the great danger is you look at the last few months, okay? 01:00:28.600 |
It was basically all of us who worked, and look, I'm a very minor, minor figure, but 01:00:34.720 |
I did my little part and there were a lot of other people on the ground doing their 01:00:39.880 |
Elon had to fly home for a Tesla board meeting. 01:00:43.520 |
And who all of a sudden shows up in Mar-a-Lago? 01:00:47.160 |
They were nowhere to be found for the last three months. 01:00:49.560 |
Now the swamp creatures come crawling out, and they're gonna be swarming Mar-a-Lago and 01:00:53.800 |
trying to worm their way into the administration. 01:00:56.160 |
And that's the issue is we gotta keep, you know, this is where I hope that all the MAGA 01:01:06.160 |
We have to consolidate this victory and get reform type people in the administration, 01:01:11.840 |
not just the usual type people from Washington. 01:01:17.920 |
I mean, look, I've already said before I'm the key man at Kraft, I can't do that. 01:01:21.120 |
But, you know, look, I would do something part-time, meaning if it wasn't a full-time 01:01:24.520 |
job, if I didn't have to leave my current job, if it was just serving on some advisory 01:01:29.560 |
committee or something that was compatible with my current job, I would do that. 01:01:37.740 |
Not full-time because I'm running a company, but if there was the opportunity to help basically- 01:01:41.360 |
Just put me on the DOJ committee, Sax, if you wouldn't mind. 01:01:44.280 |
I just want to go like line item by line item in one afternoon, and I'm out of there. 01:01:49.200 |
Elon did say this today, but he said the A-team are running companies. 01:01:55.100 |
But if asked to serve, especially in a part-time capacity where you don't have to divest everything 01:02:01.320 |
you own and you can actually just go and call bullsh*t and actually just make sure good 01:02:05.180 |
decisions get made, it would be an honor to serve in that capacity. 01:02:09.360 |
I think everybody should have given a chance. 01:02:11.280 |
I want to say one thing just to build on Sax. 01:02:15.080 |
And then I want to ask you one more question, Chamath. 01:02:17.080 |
I want to give a shout out to Elon in one very specific way. 01:02:22.560 |
You've heard all these stories where he gets obsessed about something and then he focuses 01:02:27.880 |
on it at the sake of everything else and strips it down and gets to first principles, rebuilds 01:02:38.740 |
As far as I can tell, basically when he decided that this election was going to come down 01:02:45.420 |
to Pennsylvania on one hand and young men on the other, he just kept doing that one 01:03:00.400 |
Every time you turned on X, he was doing a rally. 01:03:05.480 |
He was speaking to the residents of Pennsylvania and/or- 01:03:13.580 |
And then his PAC built an infrastructure that rivaled the democratic infrastructure in terms 01:03:24.060 |
With a lot less money and only in a month or two. 01:03:28.100 |
Well, and then the sweepstakes was also a really good idea. 01:03:33.740 |
And there was a lot of controversy around the sweepstakes idea. 01:03:36.380 |
I don't know why that was so controversial because if you think about- 01:03:39.940 |
It was the media trying to make an issue that was a nothing burger a burger. 01:03:46.260 |
It was dismissed on its face because if any person spent eight seconds understanding the 01:03:54.060 |
So, if we look at that million dollar sweepstakes to sign up for his PAC, if you think about 01:03:59.140 |
how people normally get people to sign up, they're paying a dollar a click, probably 01:04:04.680 |
$50 a click, whatever it is, using giving money to ABC or giving money to Facebook. 01:04:09.540 |
And he just said, "Hey, I'll just do a sweepstakes. 01:04:11.500 |
Sign up for this and then I have you in the database and then I can market it to you." 01:04:16.220 |
There's no difference between giving away a million dollar sweepstakes or buying a bunch 01:04:21.660 |
And for everybody to frame that as he's buying votes when it was so clear he wasn't, I think 01:04:26.780 |
that's the kind of media manipulation people are getting savvy to and does not work anymore. 01:04:32.180 |
It was just a sweepstakes to sign up for his PAC. 01:04:34.620 |
It's no different than paying $10 a click to Facebook. 01:04:38.500 |
When the legal infrastructure of America dismisses a case on its face within 60 minutes of it 01:04:46.660 |
I mean, look, I think what Elon showed is that a smart person can come in who basically, 01:04:53.580 |
like you said, can go into demon mode, has a startup or innovation mentality, is willing 01:04:58.140 |
to spend money but wants to do it smartly, but is really hardcore, can come in and beat 01:05:03.380 |
the supposed professionals of their own game. 01:05:05.820 |
I think one of the big stories that's going to come out, there's already some tea being 01:05:09.980 |
spilt within Democratic circles about Jen O'Malley Dillon, who was the campaign manager 01:05:21.660 |
The campaign still ended $20 million in debt. 01:05:33.580 |
They did these like fake concerts, celebrity cameos. 01:05:36.420 |
Supposedly they paid Beyonce $10 million and they didn't even get a song out of it and 01:05:45.700 |
I just read it in a tweet, so I can't say for sure, but that's what I read. 01:05:51.540 |
The point is, they spent a lot of money on the consultants and, you know, the events. 01:06:02.420 |
The person on the Democratic side where I feel the most disappointment after all of 01:06:10.780 |
I think he, in the period when he was elected, to me was just transcended. 01:06:17.980 |
And I thought that this is a person that really was immune to getting assimilated into the 01:06:26.940 |
And I don't know why I thought that, but I did think that. 01:06:30.620 |
And I was just so saddened to see the tone and the rhetoric from Barack Obama during 01:06:39.380 |
It, I think, was reputationally very damaging to him. 01:06:49.420 |
The, when the rhetoric was, you know, trying to propagate these lies, the very fine people 01:06:55.020 |
hoax, all of these things, I just thought he's so much smarter than this. 01:07:05.540 |
I don't really judge politicians for doing it in general, but I never considered him 01:07:11.900 |
I sort of considered him here, just like this echelon above. 01:07:16.300 |
And I was, I was really disappointed that he chose to go down that path. 01:07:22.220 |
I mean, look, I think Obama's whole mystique was that he transcended politics and he tried 01:07:27.460 |
to maintain that position of being above the fray and let the grubby business of politics 01:07:33.780 |
And even during the whole coup against Biden, I mean, they say that Obama signed off. 01:07:38.420 |
He was basically in favor of the switcheroo to Harris, but he was the last person to endorse 01:07:45.140 |
He was never to be seen as doing the dirty work that was left to Nancy Pelosi. 01:07:48.220 |
But there's no question that the switcheroo, I think, was backed by Obama. 01:07:54.480 |
And then he did everything he could to problem Harris, including using the very fine people 01:07:59.700 |
And I agree, Chamath, I think that he has diminished himself. 01:08:03.900 |
He's brought himself now down to the level of politics. 01:08:09.340 |
I think probably you're disappointed because you had such a high benchmark for him. 01:08:12.660 |
But we were just talking about Trump saying he would end the war on day one. 01:08:17.260 |
He said that he's going to deport 15 million people. 01:08:23.100 |
So I think my closing statement on all of this is y'all were a key part in putting Trump 01:08:32.420 |
And if he starts behaving in the way he behaved during his first term, the darker things he 01:08:37.400 |
did, I hope that y'all will call him on it and publicly call him on it and that he will 01:08:44.980 |
And that's my hope for America and my hope for all of you who helped put him in office 01:08:49.500 |
and played a very significant role in getting him here. 01:08:51.900 |
When he does something crazy, if he does try to drag 15 million people out of the country, 01:08:58.260 |
Well, you said that he would start with a million people, 500,000 to a million who are 01:09:05.020 |
Well, that's what J.D. Vance said and we all agree on that. 01:09:09.020 |
He said that the way that you do deportations is the same way you eat an elephant. 01:09:14.740 |
So the way you eat an elephant is you do it one bite at a time. 01:09:17.340 |
Let's start with the biggest criminals, the biggest people who shouldn't be here, and 01:09:23.540 |
If he went after the other 14 million, would you be in support of that? 01:09:27.980 |
The point is you take the first bite of the sandwich, then you talk about the second bite. 01:09:30.940 |
But there was a line from the 2016 election about Trump that I think was attributed to 01:09:34.900 |
Peter Thiel, which is very important, which is that Trump should be taken seriously but 01:09:41.220 |
Because when he expresses a policy or a point of view, he sells it. 01:09:45.580 |
So when he says, "I'm going to end the Ukraine war on day one," does that mean he's literally 01:09:51.900 |
What it means is he's going to try really hard to end the Ukraine war. 01:09:54.740 |
If he does it on day 365 of his presidency instead of day one, I'm not going to come 01:10:04.940 |
So I think it's very important to judge him in that way. 01:10:08.260 |
When he says, "I'm going to deport 15 million people," do I expect him to do all 15 million? 01:10:13.660 |
But if he closes the border, builds the wall, seals it so it's no longer a problem, and 01:10:18.420 |
deports 500,000 to a million hardcore criminals out of this country, I'm going to say that 01:10:25.540 |
The legacy media is going to say, "Well, he lied because he didn't deport the other 14.2 01:10:31.180 |
Let's understand the difference between campaigning and governing. 01:10:35.220 |
I agree with all that, and I do think if he does try to do the 14 million, that's the 01:10:45.060 |
Chamath, a guy like RFK Jr. has never held an executive position before. 01:10:49.540 |
You and others on this panel, Sachs, J-Cal, myself, we've all kind of managed large groups 01:10:56.220 |
We've all been in positions of being a CEO of a business. 01:10:59.280 |
You talk a lot about bringing in the outsiders, and the Trump campaign talks a lot about bringing 01:11:02.820 |
in these outsiders, Sachs begrudgingly highlights the swamp creatures emerging to ask for those 01:11:07.700 |
slots in those positions because they are lifelong politicians and bureaucrats. 01:11:12.980 |
How do we have trust and faith, or do you think that that's the whole point, is that 01:11:16.940 |
you have folks that don't have the experience to run these organizations, that don't have 01:11:20.780 |
the insights on who actually works there, on how they operate, and them coming in is 01:11:24.700 |
going to provide enough of a fresh perspective and f**k things up enough that that's exactly 01:11:30.260 |
And talk a little bit about bringing in outsiders, but outsiders that can be effective in transforming 01:11:35.260 |
these government agencies, not just blowing them up, or is the goal to blow them up? 01:11:40.780 |
No, again, I would just temper and tone down that rhetoric. 01:11:47.100 |
But I think step one is going to be a level of transparency so that doing the obvious 01:11:55.020 |
And I think that if you look back over 40 or 50 years, what has happened is that secretaries 01:12:00.100 |
and political appointments have gone from, "Get the best person in the job because they 01:12:04.740 |
know it," to, "Here's political payola," if you will. 01:12:08.460 |
And I think the pendulum has swung to too far of an extreme. 01:12:12.780 |
That's why the swamp people are able to maintain control, because the person above them who's 01:12:17.620 |
appointed doesn't fundamentally know the inner workings of the organization. 01:12:21.820 |
I suspect what you're going to see is a radical push to transparency. 01:12:26.940 |
And I think that when you combine transparency, and Sachs called for this, a version of the 01:12:30.580 |
Twitter files for the government, I do think you're going to see that. 01:12:34.820 |
But if you combine that push to transparency with a handful of topics, by the way, we introduced 01:12:41.180 |
a long time ago this idea of zero-based budgeting into the lexicon and language of these political 01:12:45.860 |
candidates that they used all the way through to the finish line, I do believe the Republicans 01:12:53.440 |
And so I think when you put these two things together, Freeberg, I think what you will 01:12:56.400 |
have is all of this laid bare, and then I think it'll start a debate on what to do. 01:13:02.540 |
And I think the decisions about what to do will be so blindingly obvious. 01:13:08.400 |
The low-hanging fruit will save this country once we pluck it. 01:13:13.160 |
Can I just say a word about, I think it's so important for Bobby Kennedy to be confirmed 01:13:18.440 |
in whatever cabinet position that he's going to get. 01:13:21.640 |
Number one, you know, we look back at the campaign now and it seems obvious that Trump 01:13:26.560 |
But at the time that Bobby Kennedy came on board, that was a major factor in shifting 01:13:34.600 |
Number two, we need to keep Bobby Kennedy's coalition as part of our movement. 01:13:40.080 |
It's not just about what he did in this last election. 01:13:42.880 |
It's keeping all of those people, those young people and those former Democrats on side 01:13:47.360 |
and part of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement. 01:13:50.160 |
And number three, he's genuinely going to reform that huge part of the bureaucracy. 01:13:56.760 |
And we need outsiders to come in and shake things up. 01:14:01.880 |
He's right about the marriage of state power and corporate greed. 01:14:06.440 |
Let's have someone go in there who's got fresh eyes but also understands how the bureaucracy 01:14:10.320 |
works because he's litigated and shake things up. 01:14:13.520 |
If you look at what Bobby posted to Instagram, Nick, I don't know if you can find it, but 01:14:18.400 |
it was pretty telling on this dimension of the first inning is going to be about absolute 01:14:24.440 |
radical transparency and sharing with the American people everything that's been under 01:14:30.920 |
By the way, it's not just on that dimension, right? 01:14:39.320 |
I know that these things are sort of fringe conspiracy theory type things for some people. 01:14:44.160 |
But the point is from pillar to post, that first phase of this radical truth seeking 01:14:49.840 |
transparency is an incredible disinfectant that you can build from. 01:14:54.760 |
And he told the FDA, I think something to the effect of pack your bags and keep your 01:14:59.440 |
Now let's take the hyperbolic part of it out, but it's the keep your records part that should 01:15:04.360 |
be valuable because we deserve to have answers. 01:15:08.040 |
Now when you think at the same time that you have inventions like AI that can crunch every 01:15:14.160 |
single piece of data under the sun and tell you the absolute truth, imagine when you put 01:15:18.640 |
transparency and the government sharing incredible amounts of information with the compute power 01:15:24.800 |
that the Googles and the Facebooks and the open a eyes of the world are creating. 01:15:30.160 |
You'll know these answers to all of these questions, vaccines, are they good or bad? 01:15:41.920 |
All of these drugs that have not been approved. 01:15:43.920 |
You're going to start to see some really interesting things. 01:15:46.040 |
Has there been research on the impacts of food on physiology? 01:15:51.720 |
So I think phase one is get it all out into the open. 01:15:57.520 |
And what I said, just what Chamath referred to is, yeah, I said we should do a Twitter 01:16:04.120 |
Because what I meant by that is remember before Elon bought Twitter, they told us for years 01:16:10.200 |
that the idea that Twitter was shadow baiting conservatives and engaging in censorship was 01:16:17.200 |
Then Elon opened up the Twitter files and we saw that it was all true. 01:16:21.340 |
And moreover, that the government was engaged in censorship. 01:16:24.720 |
They had been working hand in glove with the trust and safety department. 01:16:31.360 |
-And the FBI had their own tool called Teleport, which would allow them to transmit secret 01:16:35.360 |
instructions to the trust and safety team at Twitter, and they were censoring based 01:16:46.840 |
Let's do a Twitter files for the federal government. 01:16:51.040 |
What do you think we would find out about COVID? 01:16:55.000 |
If Bobby Kennedy can do that, the lies they told us. 01:16:58.040 |
-The incompleteness of the actual clinical validation studies, the authorizations and 01:17:06.200 |
How good or how brittle or how fragile was that data? 01:17:08.960 |
By the way, I think what it'll also do, Freeberg, is if it looks like this data is actually 01:17:14.440 |
of extreme high quality, you know what that does? 01:17:17.800 |
It reestablishes trust in that institution, which is also a win. 01:17:27.960 |
They were literally being taught how to route around, Fauci's team, how to route around 01:17:34.560 |
subpoenas and people looking for information. 01:17:41.720 |
-So just to be clear, there's a law in the United States called the Freedom of Information 01:17:46.440 |
The FOIA is kind of a common term, and it gives the power and authority to individual 01:17:51.800 |
citizens and third-party agencies to have a check and balance on the federal government 01:17:56.520 |
that they can go in, they can request actual data, actual files. 01:18:00.480 |
And it is all necessarily available to the public at any time, except for classified 01:18:08.800 |
Well, the federal government now over-classifies everything. 01:18:10.480 |
We have something like, what, like a billion classified documents? 01:18:14.880 |
-So through the FOIA process, third-party lawyers and nonprofits have made requests 01:18:19.880 |
to federal agencies to get access to this sort of information. 01:18:24.300 |
I don't know if you guys have ever used FOIA powers for information from the federal government. 01:18:27.880 |
I had to do FOIA requests 10 years ago to get weather data, or 15 years ago, for my 01:18:33.680 |
It was the only way we were able to get access to a bunch of weather data was through FOIA 01:18:37.440 |
And then we were able to use that data in our services, because it is public data. 01:18:41.200 |
The taxpayers pay for it, so we had a right to it. 01:18:43.680 |
Similarly, you can make FOIA requests of emails and interagency communications and so on. 01:18:49.320 |
But, Sax, I think it seems, and J. Cal, to your point about the FOIA lady, there may, 01:18:54.280 |
over time, have been some degree of corruption of the FOIA process in all of these agencies, 01:18:59.320 |
which has made it more difficult for individuals and third parties to have the appropriate 01:19:03.360 |
checks and balances on the data in these agencies, because of the way they've kind of obfuscated 01:19:09.520 |
Sometimes it takes months for them to respond to you, and it's become quite difficult. 01:19:12.720 |
So the FOIA, the intention of the Freedom of Information Act may have been hindered 01:19:21.160 |
We need a massive declassification effort of the federal government. 01:19:26.240 |
Maybe this is the way to actually implement the Twitter Files strategy. 01:19:30.340 |
The problem is we have a massive over-classification problem. 01:19:34.000 |
Billions of documents have been classified at the federal government. 01:19:37.920 |
Because those bureaucracies know that they can kind of do whatever they want and kind 01:19:40.800 |
of work in peace without having to disclose what they're really doing if they just mark 01:19:47.360 |
Someone needs to go through that and start massively declassifying. 01:19:50.760 |
If they do that, then there'll be a lot more documents available to FOIA requests. 01:19:56.320 |
And then, like you said, the FOIA process could be tightened up. 01:20:02.360 |
And they should not be able to circumvent it by doing the kind of stuff that J-Cal referred 01:20:05.720 |
to during COVID, where they were like deliberately misspelling words so that they wouldn't show 01:20:12.840 |
Yeah, they were putting asterisks in, you know, hacker speak in order to avoid this. 01:20:15.160 |
And they were also told, a bunch of people who are in three-letter agencies, just by 01:20:20.840 |
default put this at the highest level of security not to be declassified. 01:20:27.280 |
So they unnecessarily put everything in classified. 01:20:30.840 |
And so now every document, every email is marked at the highest level of classification, 01:20:38.840 |
And if you were to blame an FBI agent, if they told you, hey, just put everything on 01:20:42.320 |
classified so it doesn't get out, okay, that seems like a pretty good way to cover your 01:20:51.760 |
I'm sure we will do more updates as the cabinet positions or the nominees get announced. 01:21:00.480 |
I have very deep trepidation about RFK having oversight. 01:21:03.960 |
I think the authority might be limited with respect to the legislative authority that's 01:21:09.640 |
vested by the Congress, which is the one piece. 01:21:12.120 |
Look, I mean, as you guys know, there's a lot that RFK brings up that I very that resonates 01:21:19.160 |
So there are things that he says that make a lot of sense. 01:21:21.760 |
There are things I've pointed out, particularly around microplastics in the environment, particularly 01:21:25.840 |
around chemistry that we use in our food and our systems of food and production. 01:21:29.560 |
And I believe very strongly that we have real issues that have, you know, compounding effects 01:21:39.200 |
I'm not a all vaccines are always good all the time person. 01:21:42.680 |
I think that every one of them needs to be studied on the merits and the risks. 01:21:45.560 |
I think fluoride is an interesting conversation to have. 01:21:50.440 |
And why is it a federal why is there a federal authority over fluoride and water, which, 01:21:55.280 |
It's it's all local municipalities get to decide on a nuanced basis, then net net. 01:22:02.240 |
I will say that there are a number of things that RFK have said that that caused me a lot 01:22:04.400 |
of trouble that I'm very troubled by, because I think that he has said things that are factually 01:22:08.760 |
wrong and I want him to be open to debate and open to review of objective truth. 01:22:15.960 |
And as long as you like him as a disinfectant, as a rabble rouser, as to shake up the system 01:22:22.240 |
or net net, do you think it's too risky to let him in? 01:22:24.920 |
Generally, I think all these systems should be challenged 100 percent. 01:22:31.640 |
I personally never seen a candidate for office has been more open to discourse debate interviews 01:22:42.000 |
You know, who is not open to debate and discourse and transparency is a bureaucracy. 01:22:49.640 |
If you want government reform, you have to get into the bureaucracy. 01:22:59.280 |
One of the most important aspects of science, not the recently legacy media or jokingly 01:23:05.320 |
definition of quote quote science, but science is meant to be a process of skepticism, interrogation 01:23:11.120 |
and the search for objective truth, which means that you should be constantly questioning 01:23:17.040 |
And I do think that that is a necessary part of the process of science. 01:23:21.040 |
Science is not meant to be a dictatorial regime. 01:23:23.480 |
And so I think that resetting the framework for how we operate some of the agencies and 01:23:29.040 |
authorities that are supposed to be rooted in science, to have the necessary process 01:23:34.000 |
of skepticism, review and transparency into that, I think will reassert faith and reassert 01:23:41.040 |
trust by the public in how these agencies are operating. 01:23:46.440 |
Because I do think there are very good people in all these agencies who do very good work. 01:23:50.280 |
And there's a lot of very important advances that have come out of the United States of 01:23:53.400 |
America and have gone through processes through the federal government that have actually 01:23:57.400 |
done really great things for Americans and for humanity. 01:24:00.440 |
And so I don't want us to dismiss things as being whimsical bureaucracies that don't have 01:24:05.720 |
But I do think that it's important to have this degree of skepticism and process and 01:24:11.800 |
I'd like you to show me in the Constitution, where the bureaucracy or the administrative 01:24:19.040 |
I see in the Constitution, that we are supposed to be ruled by an executive branch, a legislative 01:24:29.720 |
That has sprung into existence over the last several decades. 01:24:36.440 |
There's roughly 3 million people who work for the federal government. 01:24:38.880 |
Of those, the president basically appoints 3,000, and it takes forever to get them through. 01:24:43.960 |
So we have roughly 3 million people who don't report to anyone. 01:24:48.000 |
Nominally, they're supposed to report to the executive branch, but the president can't 01:24:52.880 |
We talked about on a previous show, if Elon had gone into Twitter and he hadn't been allowed 01:24:57.320 |
to fire anyone, do you think he could have restored free speech to Twitter? 01:25:02.320 |
They just would have kept doing whatever they wanted to do. 01:25:04.760 |
And that is the big problem in the federal government right now, is we are ruled by a 01:25:08.000 |
fourth branch of government that is not in the Constitution, that doesn't report to anybody. 01:25:15.380 |
We can't vote them out, and we can't fire them. 01:25:18.220 |
And they have been in the forefront of trying to stop Trump and the larger reform movement 01:25:24.780 |
Ever since Trump got elected in 2016, remember, it was members of the administrative states, 01:25:29.740 |
specifically the security state, who said, "Don't worry, we're gonna be the insurance 01:25:34.700 |
And they have done everything possible through the Russiagate hoax, through lawfare, through 01:25:39.580 |
the whole Steele dossier hoax, to basically try and stop Trump and the reform movement 01:25:45.980 |
And the big question of Trump's second term will be whether he can finally subdue this 01:25:50.340 |
bureaucracy and bring it under Democratic control, under the control of the executive 01:25:54.900 |
branch as the American people want, and as I think the Constitution intended. 01:25:59.460 |
Right now, we are run by an unelected branch of government that has to stop. 01:26:02.940 |
And what Trump represents is not dictatorship, but democracy, the triumph of democracy over 01:26:09.460 |
And a big important moment for this movement, this return to the fundamentals of what was 01:26:19.140 |
vested in the Constitution, is the Chevron Doctrine case at the Supreme Court earlier 01:26:25.960 |
It reversed the authority for agencies to create their own rules and regulations that 01:26:33.900 |
And if that case carries through and is allowed to be used to support the efforts to deregulate 01:26:41.420 |
or to de-agency what you call kind of the bureaucracy, I think it enables a lot of the 01:26:49.180 |
Why should, for example, some commission be sprung out of, you know, some assembly being 01:26:54.500 |
created, and then that commission gets to create their own rules and their own regulations 01:26:57.940 |
that effectively are law, that prevent private citizens and enterprises from being able to 01:27:04.140 |
And I think that was a very important moment for this movement, was the Supreme Court case 01:27:10.740 |
I don't know if you agree with me on this, Sax, but it seems like it's gonna be... 01:27:14.820 |
I think that was an absolute precursor, which is, it was insane. 01:27:16.660 |
I mean, again, you had a Supreme Court ruling that effectively made the administrative state 01:27:21.980 |
the highest law on the land, even though there's no constitutional basis for it. 01:27:26.300 |
So, yeah, repealing Chevron was definitely half of it. 01:27:28.860 |
And I think the other half of it is gonna be whether... 01:27:32.780 |
You can't have individual commissions pass laws. 01:27:36.580 |
- We need bills passed by the Republican Congress that Trump can sign, but we also need, I think, 01:27:42.980 |
cabinet-level appointments who will start to subdue the bureaucracy, bring them under 01:27:48.740 |
Just give us transparency around what they're doing, Twitter-file this thing, so then we 01:27:54.820 |
- I think that we're gonna look back on this era, and I think it's gonna last about 20 01:27:59.220 |
years or so, at least, which I call a return to originalism. 01:28:04.540 |
We are returning to the founding principles of this startup called America, and I think 01:28:14.700 |
There's this unbelievable living document that created this incredible experiment. 01:28:23.860 |
It's taken us a lot of courage to get back to that place where now you can actually let 01:28:32.220 |
that guiding document govern a highly meritocratic country. 01:28:38.380 |
So it's gonna be a lot of hard work, but my gosh, it's just an incredible moment and opportunity. 01:28:44.340 |
Everybody should just take a breath and remember that. 01:28:46.980 |
- I'd just like to do a quick survey of some of the local and state elections and get some 01:28:52.500 |
I want to talk a little bit about what's going on in San Francisco and California. 01:28:57.660 |
My friend Daniel Lurie, it looks like he's gonna be the mayor of San Francisco, beating 01:29:05.580 |
Daniel ran on a moderate platform and has an intention of fixing a lot of the operations 01:29:13.820 |
and inefficiencies in the San Francisco government, which has seen a ballooning in budget. 01:29:18.060 |
San Francisco has the highest budget per capita of any city in the United States, I think 01:29:21.660 |
50% higher than New York, with a lower functioning kind of set of municipal services. 01:29:27.900 |
And there's a lot of opportunity for improvement there. 01:29:29.680 |
This is the first time, really important stat, first time an outsider has been elected mayor 01:29:37.180 |
Every mayor elected since 1911 in San Francisco was an existing government employee or government 01:29:45.500 |
So just like what we saw in the federal elections, we are seeing an outsider being placed in 01:29:50.660 |
>>Corey Berg, I wished Lurie a hearty congratulations. 01:29:57.020 |
>>Your city has become a dangerous, dirty dumpster fire for bad ideas from libs. 01:30:00.860 |
I hope you do the obvious and be on the side of cops, justice, clean streets, and meritocracy. 01:30:07.060 |
>>Well, yeah, I mean, he has been a major proponent. 01:30:16.980 |
And I was given a lot of support, seven figures of support to go do it. 01:30:24.980 |
It's a very hard job because the supervisors actually run the city. 01:30:28.860 |
And a lot of the supervisors, like -- >>They got booted, too, no? 01:30:40.580 |
>>So the board of supervisors has also shifted moderate. 01:30:42.580 |
The mayor is now gonna be a moderate outsider. 01:30:45.340 |
And there's a real opportunity to rebuild and reform San Francisco. 01:30:48.420 |
It's a place that I've called home for 25 years. 01:30:52.780 |
>>And it feels like a lot of the citizens of what has historically been -- 01:31:02.020 |
I still live there, and I do think that it was a big election in terms of improving things 01:31:14.020 |
>>Ruined San Francisco, and then failed his way up to L.A., was ruining L.A. 01:31:17.900 |
And Nathan Hockman, who's moderate, beat him by something like 20 points. 01:31:23.020 |
And then, like I mentioned, we got Prop 36 passed in California by about 70%, which reversed 01:31:29.220 |
some of the excesses of Prop 47, which was the proposition a decade ago. 01:31:34.180 |
That was passed by then-Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and then-Attorney General Kamala 01:31:44.180 |
So the people of California have had enough of these policies that, frankly, enable crime, 01:31:50.540 |
enable homelessness, enable drug use, and they want a correction. 01:31:54.300 |
Look, even wokes and blue-state liberals don't want their cars broken into. 01:32:03.060 |
>>I mean, the crazy thing in Los Angeles with Gascogne was a number of people who I know 01:32:07.820 |
live there, now know people in Santa Monica, in Brentwood, in Bel-Air, where we lived for 01:32:13.340 |
so many years, Sax, have home invasions have started again. 01:32:17.700 |
I mean, that is like a real breaking point for people. 01:32:22.540 |
>>It's scary to have your home broken into by a gang. 01:32:24.980 |
And, you know, one final point on this is that while the people of California resoundingly, 01:32:31.660 |
again, over 70% supported Prop 36, there was one prominent figure who was opposed to it, 01:32:38.100 |
He said, when he saw early polling, "I don't know what state I'm living in." 01:32:42.260 |
So, you know, look, the state we're living in, Gavin, is the one that you created. 01:32:52.180 |
You're the one who allowed the Democratic Party in California to be taken over by Soros 01:33:04.900 |
I'd say, on the rest of the country, if it's 70% California, 90% of the United States must, 01:33:11.540 |
you know, as opposed to these soft on crime policies. 01:33:13.860 |
If you ever have aspirations to be anything more than governor of California, you better 01:33:19.820 |
>>Sachs, David Sachs, should be the governor of California. 01:33:31.860 |
>>This is marked today as the day that I have decided that I'm going to convince David to 01:33:41.060 |
>>Great campaign manager, press secretary for him. 01:33:46.380 |
>>I'm just going to say that David Sachs would be an incredible governor of California. 01:33:58.060 |
I'm just telling you right now that within two years, I will have convinced him to do 01:34:03.500 |
Gavin Newsom has been terrible for the state. 01:34:06.220 |
We have seen trillions of dollars of market cap exit the state in terms of corporations 01:34:13.060 |
We have gone from record surpluses to record deficits. 01:34:16.740 |
We have an education system that is failing millions of kids. 01:34:25.060 |
And when you spend more and more and more to get less and less and less, and it takes 01:34:31.140 |
more and more out of everybody's pocket, what is the answer? 01:34:35.580 |
The answer is you have to fundamentally change everything that's happening from first principles. 01:34:39.700 |
>>Well, I will say one more point about, I will call it balance in the force. 01:34:47.140 |
When a party is captured and moves too far in one direction, people leave the party and 01:34:54.700 |
And then in order to attract people back to the party, they tack to the center. 01:35:00.380 |
My big prediction over the next few years is you will see a more centrist Democratic 01:35:07.300 |
>>And they try and attract their troops back. 01:35:17.060 |
>>Guys, before we wrap, there's one other topic that came up in every conversation I 01:35:20.780 |
had with everyone about Trump that was a female, which was abortion. 01:35:25.300 |
And it was, and look, I don't want to rehash again that it was misrepresented what Trump's 01:35:29.140 |
position is, but abortion has become a very sensitive topic. 01:35:32.420 |
A woman's right to do what she wants to do with her body when she wants to do it is something 01:35:38.060 |
that most women feel they are very deeply endowed with, and that should be an unalienable 01:35:44.060 |
right, particularly in the United States of America, and that even sending this back to 01:35:48.100 |
states and states voting on it creates a significant emotional response that drives folks to one 01:35:54.700 |
In Florida, voters rejected an abortion extension to 24 weeks. 01:35:59.620 |
Florida previously had a 15-week abortion ban, but the current six-week ban took effect 01:36:05.320 |
So the amendment that was being proposed on the ballot this week would have codified abortion 01:36:10.700 |
procedures up to 24 weeks in the state constitution, but it needed 60 percent of the votes to pass, 01:36:18.660 |
So it looks like a loss for pro-choice advocates. 01:36:22.780 |
Sax, what is going to happen now that these abortion laws are being voted on, these amendments 01:36:27.380 |
to state constitutions are being voted on, how is this going to reshape American politics, 01:36:32.660 |
and how are the parties going to shift in the years ahead, given how important and how 01:36:36.420 |
sensitive this topic has become after the decision of the Supreme Court recently? 01:36:41.900 |
Look, I think that what you're seeing in the last election that we just had is the beginning 01:36:49.940 |
I mean, abortion has been an issue that has deeply fragmented America for 50 years. 01:36:54.740 |
I mean, the pro-choice versus pro-life movements have been a staple of American politics, talking 01:37:01.460 |
They were never able to get to any sort of compromise. 01:37:04.020 |
With the repeal of Roe v. Wade, with the Dobbs decision, the issue has now been thrown back 01:37:07.540 |
to the states, and every state is working it out for themselves. 01:37:11.140 |
And in most states, what's happening is it's either the pro-choice totally wins or they 01:37:18.780 |
I think that in Florida, going for 24 weeks might have been a little bit too many. 01:37:22.340 |
If they had tried to go back to 15, you know, they probably could have gotten there. 01:37:25.380 |
They probably could have gotten from 57 to 60. 01:37:28.200 |
But that's what the debate's going to be about now, is just basically in red states, it's 01:37:31.820 |
just going to be about agreeing on a certain number of weeks. 01:37:34.340 |
Blue states are pretty much going to be pro-choice. 01:37:37.420 |
And you can see that the federal level, no one wants to touch this anymore. 01:37:40.500 |
J. Cal, you raised the point during the election cycle, during the campaign, that Dobbs would 01:37:45.060 |
be crushing for Trump, and that women were going to turn out in droves for Harris on 01:37:53.580 |
If you look at voter turnout, Trump increased his share of the women's vote. 01:38:00.020 |
So that subset of, call it more progressive, yeah, sorry, college-educated. 01:38:03.660 |
But the older women too, I think, came out, yeah. 01:38:06.420 |
But if you look at women as a whole, he won more of their votes. 01:38:09.160 |
So how did Trump inoculate himself on this issue? 01:38:15.380 |
He said that he favored the exceptions, and that it was now up to the states. 01:38:19.300 |
He basically assured the country, the women of the country, that, again, that abortion 01:38:24.100 |
would not be banned, and that was now a local issue. 01:38:26.980 |
And I think the voters of the country, including women, accepted that, and it is now a state 01:38:36.220 |
Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, all voted to codify the right to 01:38:42.180 |
On the other hand, Nebraska voted for a ban on abortions after the first trimester, and 01:38:46.300 |
South Dakota voted against a right to abortion. 01:38:49.680 |
So South Dakota prohibits all abortions except when necessary to save the woman's life. 01:38:54.540 |
You're gonna end up, listen, even in deep red states like Ohio, the pro-choice forces 01:39:01.220 |
It's just a handful of cases, like a very small number, where the pro-life have gotten 01:39:07.140 |
Again, I think we're at the tail end of this being a salient issue in American politics. 01:39:11.700 |
I think Trump has ended it as a federal issue, and it's now going state by state. 01:39:17.020 |
And in most of those states, the pro-choice forces are winning. 01:39:19.420 |
I think this issue is over, and I think it's over because Republicans know not to touch 01:39:25.220 |
Jay Kal, you've said it's one of the most important issues of the day several times 01:39:29.340 |
You said women were gonna vote in droves for Kamala because of the perception that Trump 01:39:34.260 |
I think a lot of them did, clearly, but not enough to swing the election, and it's going 01:39:43.940 |
Is this gonna stop being an issue, and it's now codified in state law, or is this gonna 01:39:51.380 |
There will be states where women will not be able to get an abortion, sadly, and they 01:39:53.580 |
will not be able to make that decision for themselves. 01:39:56.940 |
They should be able to make the decision for themselves. 01:40:00.220 |
But Sachs is largely right that if you don't... 01:40:03.620 |
If I'm reading it correctly, think about it, if you're a state and you ban abortion, who's 01:40:09.260 |
You're gonna have a lot of people leaving, and that's been an issue here in Texas. 01:40:12.420 |
A lot of companies are having a hard time with not only getting women to move here to 01:40:16.580 |
work at specific companies in Texas, but men are well or not are citing it as a concern. 01:40:23.460 |
So it's going to make it really untenable for an economy in the United States. 01:40:27.540 |
You're saying men don't wanna work for Tesla or SpaceX because of abortions? 01:40:32.260 |
I have heard many stories about people not wanting to come work at companies in Texas 01:40:40.360 |
I'm not talking about any of Elon's companies, I don't speak for him, obviously. 01:40:45.060 |
But this has been an issue for companies in Texas. 01:40:48.460 |
Guys, this has been a fantastic follow-up to this week's election. 01:40:52.900 |
I know some people are bitterly disappointed, frustrated, angry, and sad about the future 01:40:57.300 |
of America, and others are deeply optimistic and excited. 01:41:01.000 |
And I think at the end of the day, it's all gonna be okay. 01:41:04.200 |
And I really do hope that everyone can kind of have constructive conversations about the 01:41:12.700 |
And I really appreciate the friendship with you guys. 01:41:14.980 |
I wanna say congratulations to Sachs and Chamath for putting yourselves out there as early 01:41:18.780 |
as you did in campaigning and promoting Donald Trump. 01:41:21.860 |
I think you guys had a very influential role in moving people. 01:41:26.780 |
For the effort you made and the outcome, congratulations. 01:41:39.620 |
Well, look, if he wants to invite me tomorrow to have a veggie burger and fries, I'm there. 01:41:55.180 |
I already texted Bobby to ban anything with soy lecithin. 01:42:03.180 |
Vegans better learn to find natural sources of protein, because the unnatural sources... 01:42:07.300 |
The free market Republicans have decided it's time to go in and ban the market for fake 01:42:11.660 |
meat, because, my God, we can't introduce fake meat. 01:42:14.340 |
We have to tell you what to eat and what to do. 01:42:16.060 |
Well, not unless xanthan gum continues to dysregulate your physiology. 01:42:20.980 |
Stop using your moderator privileges to push your agenda, Free Bird. 01:42:35.980 |
And it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. 01:42:43.980 |
What your winners like? What your winners like? 01:42:50.980 |
That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway, Sachs. 01:42:59.980 |
We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy 'cause they're all just useless. 01:43:03.980 |
It's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.