back to indexBogleheads® on Investing Podcast 003 – Jonathan Clements, host Rick Ferri (audio only)
Chapters
0:0
0:52 Jonathan Clements
30:13 The Millionaire Next Door
32:56 Naive Diversification
36:55 Correlation between Sophistication Complexity and Investment Returns
41:45 Right Asset Allocation
43:19 International Allocation on a Stock Portfolio
44:48 As a Safety First Investor That Is in Retirement What Investment Should I Put My Safe Money in
48:20 Three Fund Portfolio
00:00:00.000 |
>> Welcome, everyone, to the third episode of "Bogleheads on Investing." 00:00:16.000 |
In this episode, we'll be speaking with Jonathan Clements, founder and editor of Humble Dollar. 00:00:23.960 |
He's also the author of several investing books and a former Wall Street Journal personal 00:00:40.880 |
My name is Rick Ferry, and I'm the host of "Bogleheads on Investing." 00:00:44.460 |
This program is brought to you by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a 00:00:51.400 |
Today, my special guest is Jonathan Clements, the founder and editor of Humble Dollar. 00:00:58.480 |
He's also the author of eight personal finance books, including "How to Think About Money" 00:01:04.320 |
and his newest book, "From Here to Financial Happiness." 00:01:08.440 |
Jonathan also sits on the advisory board and investment committee of Creative Planning, 00:01:14.440 |
one of the country's largest independent financial advisors. 00:01:18.600 |
Jonathan was born in London, England and graduated from Cambridge University before coming to 00:01:26.520 |
His first job was covering mutual funds for Forbes magazine, and then he went to work 00:01:32.920 |
He worked at the Journal for almost 20 years, wrote over 1,000 columns for the Journal and 00:01:40.960 |
He also worked for six years at Citigroup, where he was the director of financial education 00:01:45.440 |
for city personal wealth management, before returning to the Journal for an additional 00:01:51.960 |
Today, I'll be talking with Jonathan about his career and his new book, "From Here to 00:01:58.480 |
Financial Happiness," plus a lot of other interesting topics that we'll get into right 00:02:10.120 |
Rick, thanks so much for having me on your show. 00:02:13.640 |
Jonathan, you've got an interesting background. 00:02:16.080 |
You've worked at some of the big financial media companies, including Forbes and the 00:02:26.700 |
It didn't take you long, it doesn't seem, that you immediately started looking at what 00:02:32.280 |
makes performance of mutual funds tick and what makes the performance of accounts tick. 00:02:40.240 |
It seemed like you caught on right away in your writing to this idea that the bogleheads 00:02:50.820 |
Can you talk about when you first started as a financial writer, what that process was 00:02:59.240 |
As you can probably tell from the funny accent, Rick, I wasn't born in the U.S., I was born 00:03:05.640 |
in England, and I had most of my education there, and when I got out of university, I 00:03:11.520 |
started working in the U.K., and I very quickly discovered that the standard of living for 00:03:16.720 |
financial journalists, particularly young financial journalists in London, totally sucked. 00:03:22.840 |
And so I decided that I wanted an upgrade, so I moved to New York, and I got a job as 00:03:31.080 |
a fact-checker at Forbes magazine, which was the lowest form of life. 00:03:35.600 |
And the goal of the fact-checker was to get yourself promoted, and the way I got myself 00:03:39.480 |
promoted was to start writing about mutual funds, and after almost two years at Forbes, 00:03:44.480 |
I was promoted to a staff writer and given the job of writing for every issue about mutual 00:03:50.840 |
And the standard way at Forbes to write about funds was to do these fund manager profiles. 00:03:56.160 |
Fly to Boston, fly out to Los Angeles, sit down with a money manager, have him or her 00:04:02.640 |
describe their investment philosophy, and usually they'd give you three or four or five 00:04:07.320 |
stock picks that you would describe in that particular article. 00:04:11.040 |
And what quickly became apparent to me was that, you know, most of these guys who I considered 00:04:16.960 |
to be top fund managers, because that's why I was interviewing them, more often than not, 00:04:25.600 |
The past performance was definitely no guide to future results. 00:04:29.880 |
I got hired away by the Wall Street Journal in early 1990 to write about mutual funds 00:04:34.600 |
for them, and I continue to see the same phenomenon. 00:04:38.200 |
So you went there and you actually met with these top money managers, these top mutual 00:04:44.800 |
fund managers, and you were looking at the performance and having this discussion, and 00:04:50.760 |
you were realizing then, very soon after that, that it was then their performance started 00:05:00.400 |
In the years afterwards, these fund managers who had been at the top of their game when 00:05:06.720 |
I spoke to them, often the reason I was interviewing them was because they had been identified 00:05:12.440 |
as being top managers and what was called the Forbes Honor Roll, you know, they had 00:05:16.840 |
good performance in up markets and down markets, they seemed like consistent winners. 00:05:21.720 |
More often than not, you know, that hot performance didn't last, and we know that, right? 00:05:28.200 |
We know past performance is no guide to future results, and so the question arises, well, 00:05:36.160 |
And the research has clearly shown, the best predictor of future performance isn't past 00:05:40.800 |
performance, the best predictor of future performance is low cost. 00:05:44.400 |
If you want a manager who's really brilliant, you want to find the manager who is smart 00:05:48.400 |
enough to get hired by a fund company with low annual expenses, because that's what's 00:05:54.960 |
I want to go back though to that one point about their glory faded. 00:05:59.280 |
So you're seeing this time and time again where the glory faded of the top managers 00:06:04.320 |
You must, at some point in your mind, did you come up with reasons why the glory faded? 00:06:11.600 |
I mean, what was it that you found that caused the outperforming managers to underperform 00:06:22.180 |
Was there something about just the dynamics of the mutual fund industry as a whole? 00:06:31.440 |
Obviously, we have this issue with successful managers tend to attract assets, and the more 00:06:36.720 |
assets a manager is overseeing, the harder it is for him or her to continue the good 00:06:42.560 |
But also, the reason that managers tend to stand out is because they are, in a sense, 00:06:52.680 |
If you have a good period for growth stocks, the value managers that look good are those 00:06:59.080 |
who sneak a few growth stocks into their portfolio. 00:07:02.680 |
So you have this value manager that's done well in a period for growth stocks. 00:07:06.720 |
You say, "Okay, this is a guy who really knows his stuff. 00:07:10.080 |
He's been able to pick superior stocks and shine in a period when his investment style 00:07:16.280 |
But of course, what happens when styles rotate and when value stocks come into favor, the 00:07:22.240 |
guy who's been cheating, who's been sneaking some growth stocks into his portfolio suddenly 00:07:27.080 |
finds it hard to keep up with the other value managers because he's not a true value investor. 00:07:33.560 |
I saw that repeatedly in the managers that I looked at. 00:07:37.080 |
I'd be trying to benchmark funds and compare them to their peers, and a particular fund 00:07:42.120 |
would look good even if his or her style was out of favor. 00:07:46.440 |
But then when the style returned to favor, they were out of step because they owned the 00:07:52.440 |
I think a lot of that cheating goes on, and that's a lot of the reason why we think managers 00:07:58.000 |
are good, and it just turns out they weren't true to their mandate. 00:08:02.880 |
So at some point, you came to the epiphany or the "aha" moment that, "Gee, maybe forget 00:08:07.960 |
about active management and we're just going to use index funds." 00:08:14.360 |
At that point, there weren't a whole lot of index funds out there, but those that were 00:08:20.480 |
out there were regularly performing better than the typical actively managed fund that 00:08:28.360 |
It wasn't just that I started writing about this stuff, it was also that I started investing 00:08:36.080 |
I became a big believer in indexing, particularly in index funds that were offered by Vanguard. 00:08:43.280 |
The good performance of those funds, coupled with me personally benefiting, was what helped 00:08:47.960 |
to cement my view that purchasing actively managed funds and trying to actively manage 00:08:54.560 |
In the early '90s, you went to the Wall Street Journal and you picked up the "Getting Going" 00:09:02.120 |
In 1994, the Wall Street Journal, which at the time had no columnists outside of the 00:09:07.840 |
editorial page, the managing editor announced that he was willing to experiment with columns 00:09:14.200 |
within the news pages, and being an uppity 31-year-old, raised my hand and said, "A column, 00:09:26.840 |
Shockingly, really, the journal gave me a column at H31, so in 1994, towards the end 00:09:32.080 |
of the year, I started writing this column that was dubbed "Getting Going," and I did 00:09:37.640 |
it for another 13 and a half years, writing that column both for the regular Wall Street 00:09:44.000 |
Journal and also once it was launched for Wall Street Journal Sunday. 00:09:47.320 |
>>STEVE: The first time you actually wrote about index funds in the "Getting Going" column, 00:09:52.000 |
do you remember approximately what year that was? 00:09:54.720 |
>>RICK: It was part of the "Getting Going" philosophy from the start. 00:09:58.440 |
I would have been writing about index funds even before the "Getting Going" column was 00:10:01.880 |
launched in 1994, but precisely when, I couldn't tell you, Rick. 00:10:07.240 |
>>STEVE: Did you get any blowback from the journal? 00:10:11.320 |
Because after all, there's a lot of advertisers in the journal, I mean, these mutual fund 00:10:15.200 |
companies advertise in the Wall Street Journal, and when you start talking about indexing 00:10:20.520 |
and low fees and how that is the reason why index funds outperform most active managers, 00:10:27.520 |
and you started talking about active managers, did you get a talking-to by anyone, or were 00:10:31.760 |
you allowed to pretty much say what you wanted? 00:10:33.680 |
>>RICK: I got to tell you, Rick, back in the 1990s, and indeed throughout my period of 00:10:40.560 |
the journal, from a point of view of advertisers being allowed to influence the copy that appeared 00:10:50.520 |
In fact, advertising reps for the Wall Street Journal could be fired for calling up a reporter. 00:10:57.040 |
On a few occasions, I was called by one of the advertising guys and asked to speak at 00:11:03.840 |
some particular event, and whenever they called, they only called after they'd cleared with 00:11:07.880 |
their boss, and they called very tentatively. 00:11:10.800 |
It was really, it was a magnificent organization from that point of view. 00:11:13.520 |
I can't swear that it's like that today, but back then, there was a church and state separation 00:11:19.080 |
between the news department and the advertising department. 00:11:21.760 |
>>STEVE: But I know that I've spoken with a lot of other journalists over my time, and 00:11:29.920 |
That Chinese wall, if you will, has got a lot of holes in it at a lot of companies. 00:11:35.080 |
>>RICK: Yeah, I can believe that, and there were occasions when executives would come 00:11:42.360 |
I remember one particular meeting, there were some guy who came in from Merrill Lynch to 00:11:49.280 |
complain about my commentary on actually managed funds, and there was a big meeting in the 00:11:59.480 |
main news conference room on the ninth floor of the journal building, and I was down there, 00:12:04.540 |
and some other people were down there, and the managing editor was down there. 00:12:08.600 |
The guy from Merrill Lynch spoke his piece, and then I responded, and as we walked out 00:12:13.680 |
after the meeting, the managing editor sidled up to me, and he whispered in my ear, "He 00:12:22.560 |
That was pretty much the attitude of the journal. 00:12:24.760 |
They were going to, unless you were making factual errors, they were going to defend 00:12:28.880 |
you to the hilt, but again, I can't swear that it's that way today. 00:12:34.080 |
It wasn't only mutual funds, the way I met you, where you were taking investment advisors 00:12:38.800 |
to task as well, and that's how you and I first talked, I think it was in 2001, because 00:12:45.160 |
I had started the company and I was charging low advisory fees, and I think you were really 00:12:51.500 |
onto this idea of what is that 1% AUM fee buying you, and she caught onto that very 00:12:59.800 |
>>GREGORY: Well, generally, I would say that the world of investing has become much friendlier 00:13:06.320 |
to the average investor over the course of my career. 00:13:10.800 |
You think about all the things that have happened. 00:13:12.800 |
We've seen the collapse of brokerage commissions. 00:13:18.560 |
We've seen this proliferation of low-cost index funds, and we've seen a total change 00:13:27.240 |
in the advisory model so that while there are still financial advisors out there who 00:13:31.800 |
are charging 1% and simply giving you a bunch of expensive mutual funds, that is less and 00:13:38.920 |
If people are paying 1%, they're often getting a very low-cost portfolio, and they're getting 00:13:44.920 |
help with their broader financial life, so they're getting help not just with the choice 00:13:49.200 |
of stocks and bonds and which particular funds they're going to buy and so on, but they're 00:13:53.920 |
also getting help with a financial plan, they're getting help with their estate plan, help 00:14:00.920 |
Today, for that 1%, if you're with the right fee-only financial advisor, you're getting 00:14:07.280 |
much more than you would have got 20 years ago, and of course, as we know, if all you 00:14:12.320 |
want is portfolio management, you can go out and you can get portfolio management for 25 00:14:18.240 |
basis points these days, and you'll get a portfolio for that 25 basis points that is 00:14:22.480 |
as good as the portfolio you would have got 20 years ago, probably better, in fact, and 00:14:28.560 |
>> And there are a lot of other models that have come out, too, like flat-fee portfolio 00:14:34.840 |
models, subscription-based organizations like XY Planning, and then hourly-fee advisors 00:14:43.640 |
as well, so it seems like it's a much more diverse way in which you can pay for this 00:14:52.000 |
And I think one of the benefits of this is that, you know, you go back 20 years, and 00:14:57.920 |
people really believe that, you know, if you went to Merrill Lynch, if you went to Morgan 00:15:03.240 |
Stanley, you were somehow investing with the best and the brightest. 00:15:08.360 |
I think the message has got through that going to the big wirehouses, these big brokerage 00:15:12.560 |
firms, is actually bad for your financial health, and you're far better off, you know, 00:15:18.400 |
looking elsewhere to some of these smaller financial planning outfits, looking to the 00:15:23.120 |
robo-advisors, trying out an hourly planner, and the stranglehold that the big brokerage 00:15:29.360 |
firms had on the way, you know, advised clients manage their money is over. 00:15:40.280 |
>> So let's talk about the brokerage firms and such, because both of us worked for Citigroup 00:15:46.080 |
You changed jobs, and you actually went over to what I call the dark side. 00:15:51.160 |
I was on the dark side, so I'm just saying that facetiously. 00:15:54.080 |
You went to work for Citigroup, and it almost at the time when you did that, there was some 00:15:59.280 |
of us who had been following you were kind of questioning, scratching our heads, saying 00:16:04.120 |
you wrote about these companies for years, and now you're going to work for one. 00:16:08.760 |
I mean, was that an experiment, or could you tell us about that? 00:16:13.560 |
Well, back in 2008, I was pretty burned out on writing the column. 00:16:18.440 |
I'd been doing it for 13 and a half years, and I was casting around for something new 00:16:25.400 |
And I didn't want to become an editor of the journal. 00:16:28.000 |
I didn't really want to start writing about something else, so I wanted a total change. 00:16:33.760 |
And I was approached by Citigroup to be involved in a financial startup that they were working 00:16:42.120 |
Their plan was to create an advisory service to everyday Americans that would deliver financial 00:16:52.400 |
And so I joined Citi in April of 2008, and that's indeed what we worked on. 00:17:00.000 |
We were working on this flat fee advisory program. 00:17:06.240 |
We actually launched a pilot version of it in January 2009. 00:17:12.200 |
If you remember what things were like in January 2009, there was a worse time to launch a new 00:17:22.840 |
I mean, January 2009 probably wasn't quite as bad as 1932, but we were at the height 00:17:27.920 |
of the financial crisis, and this thing went nowhere. 00:17:32.400 |
In the months that followed, Citigroup was in turmoil. 00:17:38.600 |
This startup I was working on fell apart, and Citigroup had to make a call. 00:17:44.760 |
They needed some sort of advisory offering for regular retail investors. 00:17:51.520 |
With Smith Barney gone, what they decided was they were going to take this startup that 00:17:56.400 |
I was involved in at the time, which was called MyFi, and then what was left, which was the 00:18:02.080 |
bank-based brokers, they threw us together and said, "Figure out what you want to do." 00:18:08.360 |
They brought in a woman called Debbie McQuitty, who had been at Schwab and had overseen their 00:18:12.640 |
RIA business, and Debbie announced that what she wanted was all these bank-based brokers 00:18:19.760 |
to become the only financial advisors, and this innovative group of people who were part 00:18:27.360 |
of this startup were put in charge of this group of bank-based brokers, and as you might 00:18:38.320 |
That is indeed what happened, and that's how I ended up going from being part of this startup 00:18:43.040 |
to being, as I like to put it, in the mainstream of Citibank. 00:18:49.160 |
I stayed on because they were having this experiment trying to turn these bank-based 00:18:54.320 |
brokers into the only financial advisors, and it worked to a degree, but just purely 00:19:01.160 |
from an economics point of view, and you'll probably appreciate this, Rick, to go from 00:19:06.480 |
charging commissions every time you buy and sell, you might be getting a 4% or 5% commission 00:19:12.800 |
on a product sale, to charging 1% a year, what you effectively do is you give up right 00:19:18.080 |
away three-quarters of your annual revenue, and so this business went from being profitable 00:19:24.560 |
to being extremely unprofitable, so after a year or so of this, there was yet another 00:19:30.000 |
U-turn, and they moved towards a fee-commissioned model, but they still continued to try to 00:19:37.320 |
favor the fee-based business, so I hung on there. 00:19:42.080 |
I actually ended up spending six years at Citigroup. 00:19:48.200 |
Towards the end, I had got to the point where I had enough money that I didn't, the salary 00:19:53.360 |
I was earning there, and I decided I was sick of dealing with lawyers and sick of dealing 00:20:01.040 |
And you went back to the Wall Street Journal for a little while. 00:20:04.160 |
I went back to the Wall Street Journal, and I have to say, even though I can't claim that 00:20:08.800 |
I didn't much good when I was on the dark side, I'm sort of glad I did it. 00:20:13.520 |
I learned a lot about the business that I never would have learned purely being on the 00:20:22.120 |
I mean, as you know yourself, Rick, once you've been on the inside, you see how it works. 00:20:29.520 |
You understand much better the culture of these institutions and why they do the screwed-up 00:20:37.640 |
>>Corey: For the benefit of the shareholders. 00:20:40.280 |
>>Steven: Whatever it is, it isn't for the benefit of the everyday investor who walks 00:20:49.000 |
I haven't heard that one yet, but that's what they might say to me, but that's not what 00:20:54.000 |
Anyway, so you went to the Wall Street Journal, and you were there for about a year and a 00:20:58.600 |
half, and then you decided to go out on your own and start your own business, the Humble 00:21:06.560 |
Dollar, in 2017, which is a great blog and a lot of good advice there. 00:21:16.600 |
In fact, you wrote How to Think About Money, and also your latest book, From Here to Financial 00:21:25.000 |
Can you talk about the transition to starting your own business and going from a paycheck, 00:21:30.400 |
if you will, to starting from scratch and seeing how it goes? 00:21:35.920 |
>>Steven: I wouldn't claim that I'm the most courageous person in the world, at least not 00:21:40.080 |
courageous financially, so I wouldn't have ended up in the position I am now if I depended 00:21:46.640 |
on the income I earned today in order to cover the bills. 00:21:53.480 |
It just happens that I'm working harder than ever. 00:21:58.920 |
>>Steven: If the books don't sell and the website doesn't make any money, it's okay. 00:22:14.960 |
I love writing about it, and I love being part of the conversation. 00:22:19.280 |
That's what the books and the website allow me to do. 00:22:22.080 |
>>Corey: Well, I read From Here to Financial Happiness recently. 00:22:29.920 |
In typical Boglehead fashion, if I can get a free book, of course I'll get one for free, 00:22:45.120 |
The subtitle is Enrich Your Life in Just 77 Days. 00:22:55.440 |
I need much longer than 77 days to enrich my life. 00:23:01.120 |
The book is only ... Let me see how many pages it is. 00:23:08.560 |
It's 240 pages roughly, but as I began to work through the book, and it's not just a 00:23:22.320 |
Reading day one, day two, day three, day four, there are some of these days where I was reading 00:23:30.440 |
about where, my God, I had to put the book down. 00:23:36.160 |
I literally had to say, "I really have to think about that. 00:23:40.200 |
That's going to take a long time for me to process what you just wrote." 00:23:44.480 |
Now, some of the days went by pretty easy, but some of them were much more difficult. 00:23:50.080 |
In fact, I found it aggravating in some ways to have to think about some of the things 00:23:56.840 |
you wrote about in the book, but as I kept on going through it, I realized it was a method 00:24:01.480 |
Then I read about why you did it this way, why you wrote the book this way. 00:24:09.120 |
You're thinking of how you put this book together as opposed to all your other books. 00:24:16.160 |
The book grew out of a couple of different things I've been thinking about. 00:24:22.520 |
One of the ways I've described the book to people is that I like to think of it as the 00:24:27.300 |
conversation that you should be having with a really good financial advisor. 00:24:33.960 |
A really good financial advisor isn't going to be purely concerned with making sure that 00:24:40.080 |
you end up with the right seven mutual funds. 00:24:43.840 |
A really good financial advisor should be trying to figure out what it is that you really 00:24:54.280 |
What's going to make you happy in the future? 00:24:56.680 |
What are the goals that you truly care about? 00:24:59.160 |
Not simply that you want to retire, but what sort of retirement do you want? 00:25:02.880 |
What is it that you're going to do with this last 20 or 30 years of your life? 00:25:06.920 |
A good financial advisor is going to figure out that stuff, and then he or she is going 00:25:16.160 |
It's not just about building the right portfolio. 00:25:19.240 |
There's so much more to managing money than having those six or seven mutual funds. 00:25:28.080 |
You need to figure out whether you should be paying down your debt faster than is required. 00:25:35.080 |
You need to be figuring out what sort of house you can afford to buy, what you should be 00:25:42.240 |
All of this stuff is part of building a robust financial life, and that's what the 77 days 00:25:49.120 |
It's about figuring out where you stand, what you want, and how you're going to get there. 00:25:56.740 |
The premise is that you can do it with these 77 steps, and the 77 steps are a mix. 00:26:04.560 |
Some days it's about teasing out what you want. 00:26:07.800 |
Some days it's giving you a brief financial lesson about some topics that I think is crucial 00:26:12.380 |
to understanding money, and some days it's setting up specific steps that you ought to 00:26:20.200 |
The book gets deep into behavioral finance without calling it behavioral finance. 00:26:28.200 |
What I find is that you're able to describe things in layman terms without having to put 00:26:33.040 |
100 footnotes in there and references to behavioral finance studies and such, but you're able 00:26:39.600 |
to take a lot of the biases and behavioral finance things that we know in academia and 00:26:47.520 |
you're able to very efficiently and very cleanly use it to describe what people should do or 00:26:56.800 |
shouldn't do, or at least get people to think about their behavior and how their behavior 00:27:05.480 |
That's what I found very interesting about the book is most of the time when you read 00:27:10.480 |
a book like this, you're constantly seeing footnote, footnote, footnote, footnote, footnote. 00:27:15.120 |
This study, that study, this study, that study. 00:27:16.800 |
You've avoided all of that in the book, and I commend you for that. 00:27:21.000 |
But this is a very well-researched and very well-written book that encompasses just so 00:27:28.960 |
much, and I think you really hit what you were trying to do here with this book. 00:27:34.920 |
Well, in many ways, Rick, and thank you for your kind words, but in many ways, you know, 00:27:40.040 |
the book is a product of the decades I've spent, you know, thinking about money, and 00:27:47.600 |
one of the challenges of writing regularly about money is that the basics are indeed 00:27:56.520 |
You know, the basics of putting together a portfolio, of figuring out how much insurance 00:28:01.000 |
you need, what you need to do in terms of estate planning, you know, paying down debt, 00:28:07.320 |
This stuff is really not that complicated, and if you're going to survive as a financial 00:28:13.280 |
writer, you need to have some intellectual curiosity and start to delve into other areas 00:28:18.360 |
of finance, and I've been the beneficiary, at least in terms of my longevity as a financial 00:28:23.860 |
writer, of some of the great research that has come out of academia, the research on 00:28:29.600 |
behavioral finance, on neuroeconomics, on evolutionary psychology, on money and happiness, 00:28:36.920 |
all of these four areas have produced incredible insights that are so useful to us as managers 00:28:42.600 |
of our own money, and I've had really the pleasure of swimming in this research for 00:28:49.880 |
the past 20-plus years, and so while the book reflects that research, it's not like I sat 00:28:58.120 |
down and read it all over, you know, in the year running up to the book's publication. 00:29:02.440 |
I have been absorbing this for years and years, and it's sort of become part of the way I 00:29:07.640 |
think about money. I'm not an original thinker, but, you know, I am pretty good at synthesizing 00:29:12.840 |
what's out there, and that's what the book represents. 00:29:17.080 |
There's a few things you wrote in here, which caught my attention very quickly. You have 00:29:21.880 |
these great little quotes at the end of every chapter, but it's not, "This is what you've 00:29:26.600 |
learned in this chapter." It's a saying, or it's something that you put together, and 00:29:31.280 |
I want to read you one of them, because I found it very interesting. It's actually from 00:29:35.800 |
day 44. You said, "If our net worth was displayed on our foreheads for all to see, libraries 00:29:43.200 |
would be mobbed, and used cars would be status symbols." And it took me a second to think 00:29:48.960 |
about that, saying, "Libraries would be mobbed, and used cars would be status symbols." Well, 00:29:54.520 |
of course, yeah, I started thinking about it, saying, "Sure, you wouldn't buy a book. 00:29:58.160 |
You'd go to the library and get one for free, and you wouldn't buy a new car. You'd go out 00:30:02.560 |
and buy a used car, and that would be a status symbol, because what would be on your forehead 00:30:07.640 |
You know, probably one of the most influential books I think that any of us have read over 00:30:12.920 |
the past 20 years is "The Millionaire Next Door," and this notion that it's not the money 00:30:18.800 |
that you see, it's the money that you don't see, right? It's the millionaire next door 00:30:24.560 |
living in the modest home, wearing clothes from J.C. Penney, and driving the second-hand 00:30:29.320 |
car. That's the millionaire. The millionaire isn't, you know, the big house with his or 00:30:35.160 |
her European sedan and the beautifully landscaped lawn. That's not money. That's money that 00:30:40.680 |
is gone. That's money that is spent. And yet, the money that is still there often isn't 00:30:48.360 |
visible. You see this on the Bogleheads Forum. The Bogleheads Forum isn't just about low-cost 00:30:54.600 |
investing. It's about having sensible habits when it comes to spending money. I think this 00:31:02.600 |
is one of the reasons why you see so much overlap between the Bogleheads and what's 00:31:07.760 |
become a very hot topic in recent months, which is the FIRE movement, you know, Financial 00:31:11.880 |
Independence Retire Early, that frugality cuts not just across investing, but across 00:31:18.280 |
our entire financial lives. And being frugal about how we handle our money is the key to 00:31:24.680 |
wealth. And that's why, you know, I came up with that. If we all knew how much everybody 00:31:28.880 |
was worth, and you saw somebody driving a BMW with a negative net worth, you would just 00:31:36.720 |
>>JOHN: But because we don't see the net worth on their forehead, we don't get the chance 00:31:42.680 |
>>STEVE: Great. Yeah, that's perfect. That's great. And you, in fact, you followed up with 00:31:46.480 |
that. And another day, Day 52, you talked about want to hurt your happiness, buy a big 00:31:52.440 |
house involving lots of upkeep and a long commute. I think a lot of us are guilty of 00:32:00.000 |
that. You know, as soon as you buy the big house, now you've got big bills to keep it 00:32:04.760 |
up. And it might be nice to show off for a while, but after a while, people stop coming 00:32:11.120 |
>>STEVE: You had one more thing in here I want to talk about. And that is something 00:32:15.920 |
you wrote on Day 70, which talked about limiting yourself to one financial advisor, one bank, 00:32:25.440 |
and one brokerage firm or mutual fund family. And I want to talk about that because it always 00:32:32.360 |
comes up on the Bogleheads where people say, "Oh, I have three or four banks because I 00:32:35.840 |
want to diversify. I have two or three different advisors because I want to diversify. I don't 00:32:40.960 |
want to keep all my money at one particular firm, call it Vanguard or Schwab or TD or 00:32:46.440 |
wherever. I want to diversify because what happens if one of those companies go under?" 00:32:51.680 |
You're actually saying, "No, don't worry about that here." 00:32:54.440 |
>>TOM: So in terms of what I call naive diversification, multiple financial advisors, multiple banks, 00:33:00.520 |
multiple mutual fund companies, multiple brokerage firms, yeah, I don't see that there is much 00:33:06.120 |
benefit to this with one narrow exception. I do appreciate that there is this FDIC limit 00:33:12.680 |
of $250,000. And if you have a ton of money in the bank, in order to make sure that you're 00:33:19.000 |
covered by that $250,000, you may need to use multiple banks. But other than that, why 00:33:25.200 |
would you use two financial advisors? What you're going to end up probably is two portfolios 00:33:30.760 |
that have massive amounts of overlap, for which you're paying excessive cost. You're 00:33:37.040 |
not getting any added value. If you can't find one financial advisor who's doing the 00:33:41.640 |
job for you, you've got a big problem. Similarly, if you go to a brokerage firm, you're getting 00:33:48.080 |
diversification not from the brokerage firm, but from the investments that you buy. If 00:33:52.440 |
you have 10 different ETFs, that's your diversification. The fact that they're all held at one brokerage 00:33:58.600 |
firm is of no import. It's not like the brokerage firm is going to go under and suddenly all 00:34:05.440 |
your assets are gone. Those assets are held by a separate custodian. You should have no 00:34:10.040 |
reason to worry about that. Ditto for using multiple mutual fund companies. I don't see 00:34:15.080 |
any point in that. You can have all your mutual funds at one company. Each fund is a separate 00:34:21.040 |
company. Each of those investments is held by the outside custodian. There should be 00:34:30.000 |
It's true. It is that way. Some people still have this belief that they need to be diversified 00:34:35.640 |
amongst where they keep their money. I'm glad you wrote that in the book because it's just 00:34:39.320 |
not true. I personally have all my money at Vanguard. I don't have any reason to put it 00:34:45.860 |
anywhere else. Even if I wanted to buy an exchange-traded fund that was traded by iShares, 00:34:52.400 |
I could buy it through Vanguard. I don't need to have multiple custodians. 00:34:57.720 |
Now, if somebody has a 401(k), of course, they have to have the money in that 401(k), 00:35:03.400 |
but once they retire, they can roll that into an IRA account at the one custodian that they 00:35:10.560 |
choose. I'm not saying Vanguard's the place. It could be Schwab. It could be wherever, 00:35:14.520 |
but why complicate it? Why have a number of accounts at a number of custodians? Not only 00:35:20.360 |
does it make it complicated for you, the investor, but if you should happen to pass away, it 00:35:25.640 |
becomes 10 times more complicated for the person who has to pick all this up. 00:35:30.480 |
Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, I do as you do, Rick. I have all of my investment dollars 00:35:36.200 |
at Vanguard. In fact, this may surprise people, I don't own any ETS. I own purely mutual funds, 00:35:45.200 |
and the goal is simplicity here. When I pass away, my kids should be able to settle my 00:35:53.040 |
Yeah, I think that that's the whole idea of simplicity is the next phase of what's going 00:35:59.920 |
on with financial writers. I know personally me, I just launched a new website, Core4Investing, 00:36:08.560 |
and it's all about being simple and simplicity. I think that the next phase, at least baby 00:36:14.840 |
boomers like me, need to make things much more simple, need to make their portfolios 00:36:19.880 |
simpler, need to make their estate simpler, need not to have five different IRA rollover 00:36:25.960 |
accounts. If you're not going to go back to work, put them all together into one. There's 00:36:29.240 |
no reason to have five anymore. If you have 401ks all over the place from different jobs, 00:36:34.440 |
you don't need that. Bring them all together into one IRA, make it simple. 00:36:38.480 |
I think simplicity and how we manage our money is important, not just for us, but for the 00:36:45.840 |
And I would just add the corollary to that, which is that Wall Street battles this notion 00:36:50.920 |
fiercely. They want investors to believe that there is some correlation between sophistication, 00:36:59.040 |
complexity, and investment returns, and it simply isn't the case. I know so many high 00:37:03.920 |
net worth individuals who end up in complicated investment products because they think they're 00:37:08.480 |
getting something special, and they aren't. What they're getting is a complicated investment 00:37:13.160 |
product as an excuse for charging high fees. If you want to be truly sophisticated, you 00:37:21.200 |
Very well put. Let's get back to one more item before I come to questions by the Bogleheads 00:37:26.320 |
Forum. You talked about FIRE, Financial Independent Retire Early. This is getting to be quite 00:37:33.000 |
a phenomenon, especially among millennials. First of all, could you elaborate a little 00:37:39.040 |
bit more on what FIRE is, and then talk more about your viewpoint of these different facets 00:37:46.560 |
So the Financial Independence Retire Early movement is really about being extremely frugal 00:37:53.760 |
early in your career, quickly buying yourself some financial freedom so that you can potentially 00:38:00.560 |
retire at a relatively early age. Now, let's unpack that a little bit. When we talk about 00:38:07.600 |
retirement, it's really not about retiring in the sense of you're going to go and live 00:38:13.680 |
in Florida and spend all your days doing nothing. It's really about buying yourself the freedom 00:38:18.640 |
to spend your days doing what you love. Of course, for many people, this idea of being 00:38:25.360 |
frugal, buying yourself financial freedom quickly, and then using that freedom to spend 00:38:31.160 |
your days doing what you love, that notion has been around for many decades. That certainly 00:38:35.240 |
drove a lot of my financial behavior. I was a prodigious saver when I was in my 20s and 00:38:40.440 |
30s, and that's what allows me today not to worry about earning a paycheck. 00:38:45.960 |
What the Financial Independence Retire Early movement, the FIRE movement, has done is it's 00:38:51.840 |
conceptualized it in this single word, FIRE, and it's become a rallying cry for a certain 00:38:59.960 |
group of devotees, but it's not that different from anything that we've known before. It's 00:39:06.840 |
simply that it has coalesced around this one phrase and it has become something of a movement. 00:39:11.480 |
I think it's to be applauded. In a country where far too many people save way too little, 00:39:17.280 |
the idea that we're celebrating people who are being smart about their money and saving 00:39:25.160 |
Not a thing. Parlaying that, there are big companies out there that are being formed 00:39:31.240 |
and have been around now for a while, companies like Betterment, where they're teaching young 00:39:35.660 |
people right from the beginning, use low-cost index funds. Don't try to beat the market. 00:39:41.040 |
Just put a simple portfolio together of low-cost index funds. Granted, they're using ETFs because 00:39:46.080 |
they're custodying the assets at a brokerage firm, but I always applauded companies like 00:39:52.760 |
Wealthfront and Betterment and other robo-advisors because they're teaching young people right 00:39:58.840 |
from the beginning, and don't bother trying to beat the market. Just have a consistent 00:40:03.960 |
investment strategy, a consistent saving strategy. Just put the money away. It's all part of 00:40:08.600 |
the same movement, and I think it's all very good. 00:40:10.960 |
Yeah, I think anything that focuses on holding down costs, whether it's the costs in your 00:40:18.200 |
day-to-day living, the costs in your investment portfolio, the costs of your insurance, the 00:40:23.120 |
cost of putting together your estate plan, as long as you're being smart in the choices 00:40:28.440 |
you make, what's wrong with that? The less money that goes to these financial service 00:40:33.800 |
providers, the more money that ends up in your pocket. 00:40:38.000 |
In the last part of the interview today, I'm going to go to the Bogleheads forum. I asked 00:40:44.160 |
the Bogleheads on bogleheads.org to come up with some questions for you. A lot of people 00:40:51.700 |
had a lot of great comments for you saying how they followed you for years and gave you 00:40:56.360 |
a lot of kudos, but there were a few questions. I'm going to go through a few of those questions 00:41:02.240 |
now and sort of wrap them off, one, two, three, four. 00:41:05.520 |
Here was the first question, and this was by Rosemary 11. Actually, she asked you three 00:41:12.960 |
questions, so I'll do one, two, three, and then you can put them all together if you'd 00:41:16.080 |
like. I am in retirement. What is an acceptable asset allocation in retirement? That was her 00:41:23.600 |
first question. What is an acceptable asset allocation in retirement? Her second one was, 00:41:28.680 |
what international allocation, I think she's talking about stocks, as a percentage of the 00:41:34.160 |
asset allocation? Thirdly, what is a safe withdrawal rate in retirement? Some three 00:41:40.100 |
broad general questions. One, two, three, if you can hit them. 00:41:43.880 |
In terms of the right asset allocation, that's going to vary from one person to the next. 00:41:50.040 |
Much depends on how much of your expenses are going to be covered by Social Security. 00:41:55.400 |
It's going to depend on whether you have a traditional employer pension. It also might 00:42:02.160 |
depend on whether you have anything else that's generating income, for instance, rental real 00:42:06.280 |
estate. As a rule of thumb, 50 to 60 percent in stocks is probably a reasonable target. 00:42:15.080 |
What I would say as an upper limit on that is, you should know exactly where you're going 00:42:24.640 |
to get your next five years of portfolio withdrawals from, and that money, at a minimum, should 00:42:31.880 |
be invested in something conservative. CDs, short-term bonds, high-yield savings accounts, 00:42:38.640 |
something like that. To get to your third question, Rick, if you're using the four percent 00:42:43.880 |
withdrawal rate, which I think is a fine number, at a bare minimum, you should have at least 00:42:49.040 |
20 percent of your portfolio in cash or near-cash investments so that you can cover the next 00:42:56.160 |
five years of portfolio withdrawals. Now, that suggests that potentially you could have 00:42:59.880 |
20 percent in stocks. I think that's way too much. I would probably go, as I said, for 00:43:03.640 |
50 or 60 percent in stocks. At a minimum, you want that 20 percent for five years of 00:43:09.160 |
four percent withdrawal rates stacked in cash or cash-like investments so that you're covered 00:43:14.920 |
in case the market goes down steeply. In terms of the second question about international 00:43:21.040 |
allocation on a stock portfolio, my view on this has shifted over the years. Personally, 00:43:27.160 |
I now have a market-weighted portfolio when it comes to stocks, which means, effectively, 00:43:33.920 |
that I have half my money in U.S. stocks and half of my money in foreign stocks. I've done 00:43:41.400 |
that for one simple reason, which is, who am I to think that I know better than all 00:43:48.120 |
other investors collectively? If all other investors worldwide collectively believe that 00:43:53.280 |
half of global stock market value is in the U.S. and half is outside the U.S., shouldn't 00:43:58.960 |
I, as a hardcore indexer, replicate those percentages? The caveat in that is, of course, 00:44:07.600 |
you are introducing a fair amount of currency risk into a portfolio. If you're uncomfortable 00:44:16.480 |
with the degree of currency risk, I would say either hold less in international stocks 00:44:22.400 |
or potentially seek out a fund that hedges its currency exposure. But as things stand, 00:44:29.240 |
I'm not sure of a fund that would give you low-cost foreign stock exposure with a currency 00:44:36.920 |
Well, thank you, John. That was a good answer. Let me go to another question, which is something 00:44:41.360 |
to do with what you just talked about, so we can hit this one too. This is from CW Radio, 00:44:47.560 |
who asks, "As a safety-first investor that is in retirement, what investment should I 00:44:53.080 |
put my safe money in?" And I think you already touched on this with the 20%, but I think 00:45:00.720 |
he's looking for SPIA, which is a single premium insurance annuity, a bond ladder, tips, and 00:45:08.480 |
so forth. He's asking if these are also acceptable places to put safe money. 00:45:16.320 |
I think all of those are acceptable places to put safe money. If you're going to buy 00:45:22.760 |
an immediate fixed annuity, I would buy from more than one insurance company, and I would 00:45:28.800 |
buy from insurance companies with a high rating for financial strength. An immediate fixed 00:45:33.920 |
annuity is a great way to hedge longevity risk and ensure that you have a stable stream 00:45:39.960 |
of monthly income. You just don't want to get it derailed because you buy from a single 00:45:45.000 |
shaky insurance company and the insurance company goes under. 00:45:49.160 |
In terms of the bond portfolio, I've always favored taking risk on the stock side of the 00:45:54.880 |
portfolio and playing it safe with bonds. In my own portfolio, I own pretty much a 50/50 00:46:01.600 |
split for the bond portfolio between inflation index, treasury of bonds, and high-quality 00:46:06.560 |
short-term corporates. But if you want to go for added safety, you might add in a mix 00:46:13.640 |
of high-quality short-term treasuries as well rather than taking the credit risk that comes 00:46:21.760 |
This is from a poster by the name of Beanie. It says, "Jonathan Clements used to recommend 00:46:26.660 |
putting 15% to 20% of one's stock allocation in diversifiers such as merger arbitrage funds, 00:46:34.840 |
commodity funds, gold funds, and REITs." I haven't seen him talking about this in a long 00:46:39.760 |
time, maybe 10 years or more. Have his views changed? If so, why? 00:46:46.760 |
I never recommend as much as 20%. I do remember writing a column for the Wall Street Journal 00:46:51.640 |
when people were all hot and bothered about alternative investments, and this was a question 00:46:57.840 |
I was getting a lot. I did indeed say that if you really want alternative exposure in 00:47:06.240 |
your portfolio, I could see allocating 10% of a portfolio and no more to alternative 00:47:13.480 |
investments. In terms of alternative investments, it was the list that you recommended -- real 00:47:19.840 |
estate investment trusts, gold stocks, commodity funds, and precious metals funds. 00:47:27.720 |
I still think that's a reasonable allocation. I have to say, I don't particularly like merger 00:47:34.520 |
arbitrage funds because they involve active management, and I have soured on commodities 00:47:41.480 |
funds. Those have become more actually traded. It's gone from being a market where companies 00:47:49.160 |
and farmers hedge to being a market dominated by investors. The historic, impressive returns 00:47:56.760 |
from the commodity indexes hasn't been replicated and, in all likelihood, will not be replicated. 00:48:03.320 |
So I'm not that crazy about commodities funds. I still have a soft spot for gold stock funds 00:48:10.680 |
and I still have a soft spot for real estate investment trusts, but I probably wouldn't 00:48:15.200 |
put more than a couple of cents of a portfolio in each. 00:48:19.280 |
What if somebody did any of that and just bought the three-fund portfolio? 00:48:24.760 |
I think the three-fund portfolio is a great portfolio to own. You and I have had this 00:48:30.320 |
conversation, Rick. People tend to mess around way too much with their portfolios. I think 00:48:35.320 |
I've done too much of that myself over the years. If you simply buy the three-fund portfolio 00:48:41.440 |
-- total U.S. market, total international, and total bond -- I think that's a great mix. 00:48:49.480 |
You may even want to consider the two-fund portfolio. You can now go to Vanguard and 00:48:54.400 |
buy the total world index fund and add the total bond market fund onto that, and you 00:49:00.520 |
could have an incredibly diversified portfolio with an asset allocation of your choice with 00:49:08.760 |
Incredible. It wasn't that way years ago, though. Things have gotten so much better 00:49:12.760 |
in indexing space where you can really reduce the number of holdings that you need nowadays 00:49:19.040 |
to be diversified globally. It's really gotten a lot better, and the fees have come down 00:49:24.640 |
That total world index fund, I believe, has something in the range of 8,000 stocks in 00:49:32.280 |
that fund. For a $3,000 investment -- or you can buy the ETF and invest even less -- you 00:49:39.520 |
can buy a portfolio with 8,000 different stocks in it. Think about that. That is astonishing. 00:49:46.760 |
Today, the everyday investor, with $10,000 or $20,000 to invest, can build a portfolio 00:49:55.160 |
that many institutional investors two decades ago would have died to have. It would be lower 00:50:01.360 |
cost and better diversified. It's astonishing what ordinary investors can do with their 00:50:10.880 |
The last question has to do with buying happiness. This is from TomP10. I'm going to just paraphrase 00:50:19.760 |
what he's saying. You've always talked about, and one of the things that make you unique 00:50:24.520 |
is the spending side of happiness. If spending actually makes people happy. He was wondering 00:50:33.720 |
about your thoughts on spending. We've talked an awful lot about investing and saving, but 00:50:41.320 |
he wants to know specifically your thoughts about spending and how to spend correctly 00:50:49.960 |
As I've written in numerous places, I believe that money can buy happiness in three ways. 00:50:59.040 |
First, money can buy happiness simply by eliminating financial worries. So many people in America 00:51:06.840 |
pursue happiness at the shopping mall, rack up their credit cards, and end up miserable 00:51:12.760 |
because they leave themselves in a financially perilous state. Whatever they manage to buy 00:51:18.320 |
at the mall is no solace when they're awake in the middle of the night worrying about 00:51:24.200 |
what happens if they lose their job or how they're going to pay the credit card bill. 00:51:28.520 |
Simply being smart about money, having a little money in the bank, saving for the future, 00:51:34.520 |
avoiding debt except for mortgage debt, that alone is going to buy you substantial happiness. 00:51:41.240 |
So that's the first way that money can buy happiness. 00:51:43.760 |
Second, money can buy happiness if you can reach the point where you can spend your days 00:51:48.960 |
doing what you love. There are a few things in life that bring greater happiness than 00:51:56.480 |
working hard at something you care passionately about. So if you can get yourself to that 00:52:02.200 |
point, like the fire people talk about, where you don't need a regular paycheck or you need 00:52:07.200 |
a much smaller paycheck and you can spend your days doing what you love, that is the 00:52:13.120 |
The third way, and this is probably what the question is getting at, is I believe the third 00:52:17.580 |
way that money can buy happiness is we can use it to create special times with friends 00:52:24.640 |
and family. And there are a couple of different elements to this. First, we know that spending 00:52:30.720 |
time with friends and family gives an enormous boost to happiness. Research suggests that 00:52:36.000 |
that is indeed the case. In fact, the research suggests that having a robust network of friends 00:52:40.120 |
and family not only makes you happier, but it also gives a boost to longevity equal in 00:52:48.000 |
effect to not smoking. So having a robust network of families is not only good for your 00:52:53.120 |
happiness, but it's also good for your health. 00:52:55.520 |
So in terms of using money, what you want to do is spend it not on material goods, which 00:53:00.840 |
are often enjoyed on your own, but on experiences. Taking the family on vacation, organizing 00:53:06.920 |
the family reunion, going out to dinner with friends, going to the theater with a colleague. 00:53:13.360 |
Those experiences enjoyed with friends and family can give a big boost to happiness. 00:53:20.360 |
But there's another element to this, which is if you really want to get a lot of happiness 00:53:24.760 |
out of your spending on experiences with friends and family, you should arrange these things 00:53:30.280 |
far ahead of time so that you have a long period of eager anticipation. That way, you'll 00:53:36.720 |
get a lot more happiness out of the dollars you're about to spend. And you should make 00:53:40.400 |
sure that you keep mementos to remind you of the event in question. When you go on vacation, 00:53:47.560 |
you should take photographs, and then you should put them up around your house so that 00:53:53.080 |
the months afterwards, you can think, "Wow, that was such a great trip. I had such a good 00:53:58.360 |
time. And here, every day when I walk to the living room, is that photograph that reminds 00:54:03.680 |
me of what a special time in my life that was." So that, in terms of actually spending 00:54:11.840 |
Well, that's great, Jonathan. I want to thank you so much. You've made us all very happy 00:54:17.040 |
by being on our program today. Well, good luck with the book. And again, the name of 00:54:20.840 |
your new book is From Here to Financial Happiness, Enrich Your Life in Just 77 Days. Jonathan, 00:54:26.720 |
thank you so much for being our guest on Bogleheads on Investing. 00:54:29.520 |
Well, thanks so much, Rick. It's been a pleasure talking to you. 00:54:34.640 |
This concludes the third episode of Bogleheads on Investing. I'm your host, Rick Ferry. Join 00:54:41.040 |
us each month to hear a new special guest. In the meantime, visit Bogleheads.org and 00:54:47.720 |
the Bogleheads Wiki. Participate in the forum, and help others find the forum. Thanks for