#AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias

00:00:18.720 | Elon had a moment of reflection and he was talking about 2008, he was talking about the

00:00:26.200 | imminent collapse as he felt it of SpaceX and Tesla at the same time in December 25th and he

00:00:34.120 | said there were just a handful of people who came out there and put their careers on the line for

00:00:39.800 | him, yourself and Steve Jurvetson specifically mentioned and Ira and it was a particularly

00:00:46.600 | poignant moment for him, he was getting a little choked up about it. Tell us about that bet you

00:00:51.160 | made in 2008 and the potentially career-changing moment in your career.

00:00:56.180 | What was the career-ending bet for you to bet in an electric car company at that moment? Take us back to that decision.

00:01:02.500 | Yeah, well before I do that I just want to say that I left my wallet

00:01:06.500 | backstage because the last time I was with the four of you I lost a lot of money

00:01:11.620 | and I realized that I better leave all the cash somewhere where you can't get it and then

00:01:18.180 | and you also made me cry so I think I might cry again now.

00:01:22.660 | Of joy?

00:01:23.460 | I mean no, no it was more like a humiliation.

00:01:25.620 | We were playing poker.

00:01:27.620 | Yeah, we're playing poker.

00:01:28.340 | Wait, wait, wait, you pulled a Palmer Lucky?

00:01:29.780 | Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:01:31.860 | No, so if I cry again this time it will be from a sense of just gratitude

00:01:39.380 | for those moments that we got to share. So for us in particular because you know our

00:01:46.500 | strategy is so operational, I was there working on supply chain in the factory and on sales in

00:01:51.860 | that period along with my partner Tim Watkins and three or four of our supply

00:01:55.460 | chain people and we had a major problem in supply chain, the cost for way to control and

00:02:00.340 | you know Elon was doing the engineering on the very expensive parts we were doing the

00:02:03.300 | I call it the B parts, the A and B parts and man it was brutal but it was very clear to us that

00:02:10.900 | remember it was also the middle of financial crisis right so we had a treasure portfolio

00:02:14.420 | we had to decide we didn't have a lot of capital at the time these are tiny funds 120, 300,000

00:02:19.460 | funds where our capital go where our people go more importantly where operating people go and

00:02:23.700 | where I would go.

00:02:24.340 | Yeah.

00:02:24.840 | Yeah.

00:02:25.300 | And we decided to focus on Tesla because first we really did believe in Elon when most people didn't

00:02:32.500 | and we saw in him something very special which I think you probably saw here yesterday

00:02:37.460 | that not only is he is a brilliant brilliant engineer you know one in a hundred year kind

00:02:41.460 | of engineer he's a man of deep conviction and deep passion and deep compassion.

00:02:47.380 | What he is doing is really trying to bend the arc of humanity for all of us because he really cares.

00:02:55.140 | And that came through to us and we want to be on that mission with him and so we were

00:03:00.580 | privileged enough to be there in a moment time that it mattered and it was really hard man I

00:03:04.660 | mean we had clients I actually had a client said to me how do I know this isn't DeLorean and I said

00:03:09.220 | look I can tell you for a fact we are not selling cocaine out of the back of the factory in the cars.

00:03:13.700 | Yeah.

00:03:14.200 | There's no DeLorean being the famous back to the future car.

00:03:17.860 | Exactly.

00:03:18.420 | Where the owner was trafficking cocaine to underwrite the car.

00:03:22.020 | Exactly.

00:03:22.520 | I may live in Miami but even Antonio Grossi is not a big fan of DeLorean.

00:03:24.300 | Yeah.

00:03:24.800 | Antonio Grossi is not selling cocaine for sure.

00:03:26.580 | Sure.

00:03:27.080 | That I'm sure.

00:03:27.580 | Yeah but no it was a very it was a it was a career betting event for us and it turned out right it

00:03:33.300 | was right thing to do but yeah for me it was I'm just deeply grateful for these experiences.

00:03:38.980 | But I mean you really doubled down because you didn't just do Tesla you also

00:03:42.660 | were there in some really critical moments at SpaceX as well.

00:03:45.700 | We were although I tell you you know we doubled down at the time in Tesla we put more money in

00:03:50.140 | Tesla than the financial crisis and then helped lead a convert round there that was really tough

00:03:53.780 | for us to do and then put more in Tesla.

00:03:54.460 | Yeah.

00:03:54.960 | And then put more in SpaceX but I tell you operationally like in terms of capital stack I think there were other people around and SpaceX is also running out of money and so we put money to SpaceX operation we were just basically over the years but it was never as existential in terms of the operations it was a Tesla.

00:04:08.540 | I mean Tesla was truly I think truly existential and because we were operating guys and I myself had been a factory manager I worked in all the parts and all parts factory I'd run industrial facilities myself we could kind of uniquely add value there in the rocket factory you know we were just less valuable.

00:04:23.080 | Yeah.

00:04:23.580 | Yeah.

00:04:24.080 | But yeah both these companies were going down at the same time and you know the amount of stress we were all under was extraordinary but you know looking back on it it's one of the greatest moments of my career.

00:04:33.380 | Yeah.

00:04:33.880 | I mean this sense of fellowship you know one of the I think the great thing about being in our business the business we are all in is that we get to back amazing people that are trying to change the world and in these dark dark dark deep moments we get to go to war for them and in those moments I call them these moments of fellowship where you just care deeply about someone and passionate about the mission.

00:04:53.700 | Yeah.

00:04:54.200 | And you get to make a huge difference like these are the highlights of my career and if you ask my partners they tell you the same thing.

00:04:59.700 | These are the best moments we've had some together three of us have had some together actually we've all had some together here on the stage we had to fight for something you believed in and it's a privilege man to do it.

00:05:09.580 | It's a privilege in that situation it's privilege to be with Elon it's been a privilege to be there with all of you at different moments in my career and I'm very grateful for it.

00:05:17.080 | How do you feel like you come off of a high after having huge successes like this.

00:05:19.880 | I mean I think it's a really good thing.

00:05:20.700 | I mean I think it's a really good thing.

00:05:21.700 | Yeah.

00:05:22.000 | I mean I think it's a really good thing.

00:05:22.400 | I mean I think it's a really good thing.

00:05:22.860 | I mean I think it's a really good thing.

00:05:23.360 | like that like how do you stay grounded and motivated to try to find the next

00:05:28.940 | one if in the back of your mind there must be a little piece that says it's

00:05:32.000 | never gonna be as good as this guy or those two things I mean you know it is

00:05:35.780 | it's interesting question of us I think that there's a couple things in play for

00:05:39.140 | us one is we keep going because we believe in making a little better we

00:05:42.600 | invest in companies that we believe make a difference with people we respect and

00:05:46.060 | where values lined with and that's the that's the ethos of our firm right so

00:05:49.040 | whether it's large or small we may never find something that says importantest

00:05:52.580 | has on SpaceX again but we will find more great people we will help them you

00:05:56.260 | know two of our companies here I mean we invest in an rule with Palmer we have a

00:06:00.380 | small investment Flexport which should have been one of the biggest mistakes

00:06:04.080 | the last ten years my career is not putting more money in Flexport yeah I

00:06:07.280 | know we had it we actually it's kind of a funny story about we had you know

00:06:11.420 | that's a kind of a soft handshake on a term sheet at say a price of X and

00:06:15.020 | soft they came in like two days later and made it 2x and I had too much price

00:06:18.300 | memory to keep going and co-lead it so there's an error but the you had you

00:06:21.800 | have two people on the stage here they're extraordinary entrepreneurs are

00:06:25.060 | trying to make the world better both both these companies are really really

00:06:27.980 | great and making the world much more pretty now post COVID and in times of

00:06:32.180 | war making it much safer for all of us there are people like that out there

00:06:35.660 | there's more than they may not be long you know it was probably one Elon in our

00:06:38.840 | generation but there's lots of great people and I'm very optimistic about

00:06:42.020 | what's happening on the economy we're seeing incredible incredible innovation

00:06:45.920 | with tremendous entrepreneurs in our pipeline so maybe there's another one I

00:06:50.180 | don't know Antonio how do you think about the in the businesses you guys

00:06:55.160 | invest in there can sometimes be a very long capital deployment cycle before you

00:06:59.840 | see any real return in terms of you know business value whether it's pharma I

00:07:04.420 | know you've done pharma some of these hardware companies where there's a big

00:07:07.700 | build cycle how much do you need to kind of think about and see a customer and

00:07:12.020 | revenue show up before you're willing to say hey let's build the big rocket ship

00:07:16.160 | to go to the friggin moon and how do you judge and value that business and back a team up?

00:07:18.180 | it's really a question I think it depends on this and this sector Ren yeah

00:07:24.940 | it depends on how we look at the world sure probabilistically and we're looking

00:07:29.820 | for companies that we call pro and true ever they get better the world gets

00:07:32.100 | worse so in in the case of pharma or something like SpaceX we'll think about

00:07:36.240 | like what is our problem was our probability tree here what you probably

00:07:38.760 | lost probably a 3x a 5x a 10x 100x and and then we'll think about when the

00:07:43.380 | capital goes in what is the actual return on capital I was watching the

00:07:47.280 | talk you guys had with with Ryan about what happens the public markets the

00:07:50.760 | reality is that what a business is a machine you put capital in one side and

00:07:54.600 | out the other side comes return the ROI see the return of invested capital

00:07:57.840 | really matters and if you're kind of classically trained investor the way I

00:08:01.020 | am we think about that a lot yeah so I know we may be putting a lot of capital

00:08:04.360 | in the question is what's the margin in the back end a company like SpaceX a lot

00:08:08.100 | of capitals going in but we know that if it works we believe it will work we're

00:08:11.340 | also going to have a company has tremendous margins even in the

00:08:13.980 | industrial sector because of the industry structure it's in it lives in

00:08:17.660 | an oligopoly inside the US and outside the US so it's like building Starlink

00:08:22.380 | same thing capital going in but we know that the the margins and the

00:08:26.220 | profitability that business on the back end will be very very high and so the

00:08:29.300 | ROIC will be very good just are you backing a lot of deep tech startups like

00:08:33.000 | companies a founder shows up with a PowerPoint they're like any 50 million

00:08:36.120 | bucks to make our prototype I mean it depends on the business so as an example

00:08:41.280 | you know we have passed on things that are our view going to have margins that

00:08:48.540 | are ultimately competed to a low a low level right and you know there are I

00:08:52.860 | don't give examples here but there are lots of examples of people that are

00:08:55.980 | doing things in you know I call it electric aircraft VTOLs etc we look at

00:09:00.000 | this and say this is gonna be a highly competitive market these are not an end

00:09:03.120 | of one SpaceX is an end of one if you compare that to someone making an

00:09:07.180 | electric vehicle that say electric airplane or electric VTOL that will not be an end of one

00:09:11.220 | it'll be an end of many and in any of many business you're ultimately going to

00:09:15.060 | have margin competition that's going to make it that return on capital goes down

00:09:18.240 | to basic industrial margins you know like it won't be that much better than

00:09:21.300 | Boeing's ROIC or Airbus's ROIC because those will be ultimate competitors you

00:09:25.560 | you said it a little too I think superficially so let me just double click

00:09:29.220 | and I think Antonio brings up I think one of the most important principles of

00:09:34.800 | investing that is so utterly poorly understood which is ROIC ROIC return on invested

00:09:41.160 | capital most people don't even know what it means how to calculate it no Pat over

00:09:46.080 | your weighted average cost of capital these are enormously fundamental principles when

00:09:50.100 | you're running a business especially in a moment like this because when the rubber meets the road

00:09:54.240 | and you need a lot of money and you run into somebody as sophisticated as him he's already

00:09:57.780 | worked from first principles to understand it it's really really really important to

00:10:02.040 | know these things because these are the core foundations of valuation you know so obviously

00:10:07.260 | DCFs are one framework but ROIC is incredibly incredibly important

00:10:11.100 | especially when you make real things and you need to spend capex and look in a world in the

00:10:15.960 | last 10 years where money's free nobody thinks about this very much we always have thought about

00:10:20.040 | it which informs our investment model but yeah Jim off's right I mean in today's world if you're an

00:10:24.540 | entrepreneur and you can show up and say listen I have a 50 60 70 return on capital every dollar

00:10:28.440 | you give me will yield a 70 80 return on the back end even though we're losing money along

00:10:33.180 | the way that's a very compelling case well to hey we're losing a bunch of money we're not

00:10:36.780 | sure what's gonna happen which is what we hear a lot this also builds on the question from yesterday

00:10:41.040 | which is how do you present yourself as you know a young emerging company and cut through all the

00:10:47.580 | noise and understanding of these things and about future value creation in a moment like

00:10:52.140 | this becomes really important as well even if people will debate whether it's right people

00:10:56.580 | will give you credit for the intellectual honesty of actually going there and understanding these

00:11:01.320 | things really you see it a lot where companies slip away from first principles so you know the

00:11:06.060 | first principles on a high margin Enterprise software business you can define

00:11:10.980 | ARR and assume some and then people say some multiple of ARR is your valuation comp like

00:11:16.680 | your you know your multiple and then another company shows up and the margins are different

00:11:20.280 | the growth profile is different the revenue retention is different it's a services business

00:11:24.120 | and they try and use a similar sort of comment all of a sudden everyone's thinking about valuation as

00:11:28.260 | a function of some industry standard comp as opposed to going back to understanding how did

00:11:32.700 | that comp get created in the first place and what's the nature of the business from which that

00:11:36.240 | comp arose and people are doing things like calling revenue ARR you know it's not even subscription

00:11:40.920 | and so on and I think that happens considerably more and then then that investing cycle just

00:11:45.960 | becomes you know hey well the next round will be this multiple and you know that's how we'll

00:11:49.440 | get our increment in valuation and everyone just misses the the core you know proposition of

00:11:54.660 | building a valuable business that can generate what's your look through into the economy just

00:11:58.260 | from your portfolio companies look we we think I think we're in a session I mean I don't know if

00:12:02.460 | someone's already said this but we're in a session we're in a session and this will be like my I don't

00:12:06.060 | know 100 cycle or something I'm pretty old I like the rest of us here we've seen it we've seen it

00:12:09.420 | over and over again and you know I see David's

00:12:10.860 | tweets about go raise two and a half years of money this is correct I mean we're gonna you

00:12:13.680 | need enough capital to get through the problem uh the good news about this recession and you

00:12:17.880 | know there are there's some good news here which is to me if you look at the the macro picture here

00:12:22.380 | it it looks like if you can look look at uh the amount of federal debt the the state of the

00:12:28.140 | consumer and kind of what's happening in this information it actually looks a little like

00:12:31.560 | post-world war II to me in that in the world in the world war II period we had the last

00:12:36.300 | massive mobilization or demobilization of our economy occurred in World War II right

00:12:40.800 | that happened again in covet when we change in this case it's like a mini version of

00:12:45.600 | remobilization that we're restarting the economy we flooded the system with money to get the to

00:12:51.360 | kind of buffer the problem then restart the economy and now we have inflation but we also

00:12:55.560 | have lots of business formation and we have new ways of doing work which is what happened after

00:13:00.420 | World War II so I'm I'm I'm very optimistic because most of these recessions you know to really get

00:13:05.460 | inflation down we're gonna have to reduce consumer demand and or change oil prices so for sure we

00:13:10.740 | should be pumping all this country I know it's not it's controversial but that's important to lower

00:13:14.640 | oil prices to get inflation down but the reality is underneath the the numbers there's a lot of

00:13:19.800 | innovation happening and that's what happened kind of post-world war II so I would say we're

00:13:24.000 | in a bit of a mini retooling it's going to be a rough year or two uh hang on it'll be a rough

00:13:28.320 | year or two but the consumers are in pretty good shapes they're not over levered we should come out

00:13:32.640 | okay and the U.S economy is so resilient man like you know we are all either one generation

00:13:37.260 | from being immigrants or immigrants here I think most of us right it's the best place

00:13:40.680 | in the world to live we're the most innovative economy in the world we should I'm super optimistic

00:13:43.980 | what's happening here because there's so much innovation so many smart people working so hard

00:13:47.880 | to make things better um I think it's going to be great I think we get the next couple years it's

00:13:52.020 | going to be great talk about this um pumping more oil situation obviously Russia's involved in a and

00:13:58.680 | we talked about earlier today had a debate about Ukraine and then you have maybe some folks in the

00:14:04.860 | Middle East not pumping as much oil as we might like them to and then Europe decided well we don't

00:14:10.620 | want to come back here we want you to do that over there and and then we stopped here uh and none of

00:14:15.600 | us want to see environmental damage done to the planet but we also don't want to see dictators

00:14:21.180 | take over the planet or the economy come to a halt what's a reasonable proposal for America

00:14:28.440 | yeah and American sovereignty in terms of green and renewables and maybe pumping some oil so look I

00:14:38.160 | we were the first institutional investors as a motor

00:14:40.560 | voters so I think I have enough bona fides to say this I believe in green technology okay absolutely

00:14:44.460 | 100 but energy and in the same fund we did Tesla we actually had fracking assets because energy

00:14:51.000 | Independence is well that's incredible really yes in the same fund same fund because then as

00:14:55.980 | it is today energy Independence is a Nash security issue this is not a partisan issue

00:15:02.280 | extremely important to understand this extremely important to understand this yeah it's not about

00:15:10.500 | all the things it's about wars in the Middle East and the reality is that the Saudis are not pumping

00:15:15.840 | OPEC is not pumping this is terrible for America and they know it they're squeezing their economy

00:15:21.420 | the way they're in the 70s and it's absolutely being done on purpose so the answer to that in

00:15:25.980 | my mind is twofold one we should have an we should be an industrial policy general in this country

00:15:30.420 | but the first thing we should have is a energy policy energy policy look like this we take all

00:15:34.680 | of the background subsidies literally make them equal and we give let's say 500 billion total

00:15:40.440 | 250 billion in in low-cost loans to the energy patch for drilling in places like Texas Louisiana

00:15:46.140 | and an equal amount to green energy and we Sprint to a green future at the same time we ensure that

00:15:51.780 | this country is safe and we have energy security in this country for all the people out there being

00:15:55.860 | hurt by high inflation it's a security problem what do you you guys invest heavily in manufacturing

00:16:05.160 | what do you see in terms of the future of manufacturing the opportunity for onshore

00:16:08.160 | manufacturing are there technologies that

00:16:10.380 | you guys are excited about that create an advantage for the United States to build

00:16:13.020 | manufacturing capacity um to service industry here and yeah look I think this thing about we

00:16:19.080 | outsource the entire our entire manufacturing base in China because it was cheaper but the

00:16:23.040 | reality is that the if we have been our the productivity between the kind of U.S and China

00:16:28.380 | right now is about eight to one so a U.S worker is eight times more productive than a Chinese worker

00:16:31.920 | we found in in cases like Tesla where we actually helped read in terms of GDP per worker yes we helped

00:16:38.880 | to in-source the supply chain

00:16:40.320 | of Tesla why is Tesla floating rated because I got news for you you actually can make stuff in America

00:16:45.240 | it's made very well shocking okay let me tell you when you put what what is the why do we have this

00:16:53.340 | narrative that it can't be done and then we go to Gigafactory and you see let me tell you having been

00:16:58.020 | done let me tell you why and boy I mean here's this I'm probably gonna get pillory for saying

00:17:03.420 | this but great companies are built by Engineers like Elon Musk that's a reality of it and they

00:17:08.100 | know they want to control their manufacturing we do it here so

00:17:10.260 | they can iterate faster and make the product better if the product's good enough you'll sell

00:17:13.380 | it for a great margin they get optimized by marketing people and destroyed by the CFO when

00:17:18.300 | you put the finance guy in charge and he's like oh hey we can get a lower piece part by sending

00:17:22.380 | it to China but he doesn't understand the iteration cycle of making that product that guy destroys the

00:17:26.580 | company and that's what happened in America bean counters yeah we put the CFOs in charge for God's

00:17:30.960 | sake don't do that these bean counters I mean can I say that let me say that more engineers

00:17:36.240 | let me say that if you if you if you calculate return on invested capital and you think about this

00:17:40.200 | carefully what happens is these long supply chains to Asia they have huge capital deployed but if

00:17:44.880 | capital is cheap you do that because the piece part price is cheaper but if you calculate what

00:17:48.660 | happened in Tesla in particular when you calculate the overall cost and capital wasn't free because

00:17:52.500 | you didn't get any it was actually much smarter to bring it back right so the long-term cycle

00:17:56.160 | you make more money the short-term cycle you make less money the short-term cycle you make

00:18:00.660 | more money I mean is that another way to think about it you optimize short-term outcomes you

00:18:05.040 | you improve the you you improve the income statement because you might improve properly in

00:18:10.140 | the long-term but you actually hurt the balance sheet because you sell this capital on the water

00:18:13.920 | over to China you're never bringing it back and your iteration cycle goes down because you you've

00:18:17.700 | got so what you're saying is the product's less innovative it is but he's saying something really

00:18:22.980 | important which is that it's the financialization of the PNL that in some ways led to the decline of

00:18:28.080 | American manufacturing in part meaning if you're a CEO of a business and you construct your employment

00:18:34.200 | agreement and it's based on a certain kind of earnings in a certain period a certain earnings per share

00:18:40.080 | the incentive to then drive financialization goes up now the perfect example of this is if you compare

00:18:46.320 | it for example and you did this the comp package that you gave Elon in 2018 versus the comp package

00:18:53.040 | that any other CEO in America got it was completely black and white it was it was it was it was opposite

00:19:00.960 | land yes and you basically completely said you get nothing now let's set these extreme goals and then

00:19:09.180 | if you can hit it

00:19:10.020 | you'll get compensated so much so that you know when you had glass Lewis and ISS all right uh the

00:19:16.680 | the ISS class who said no but they used in most things and we're being sued for it so gotta be

00:19:20.460 | careful what I say about it but um yeah we had a comp package fully votes on equity appreciation

00:19:25.800 | right that required creation of new products and look I'm gonna I'll pick on Apple here Apple's

00:19:31.080 | the first stock I ever bought I was 12 years old my mom actually went to Ocamp Bank and bought me

00:19:34.740 | a few shares of Apple I still have it in my account to remind me what it takes to build a company Steve

00:19:39.960 | was terrible and look then you know Tim Cook takes over to the supply chain guy I mean they've really

00:19:46.920 | optimized profitability it's unbelievable you know you know two trillion dollar market or something

00:19:51.480 | now but man when's the last time they need a product AirPods AirPods yeah I mean pretty great

00:19:57.240 | great product great product but I mean incredible free cash flow yeah they could aggressively buy

00:20:03.420 | back their stuff yes it's a financialization of that company has attracted I mean if you look at

00:20:07.920 | the company if you can look at a the largest shareholder is the most sophisticated financial

00:20:12.780 | asset owner in the world Berkshire yes Berkshire doesn't buy technology companies they buy

00:20:16.860 | incredibly well-run financial assets and it is look at how duck's getting lambasted for the VR

00:20:21.840 | investment some might say that strategically it's not a great investment but he's saying it I'm

00:20:26.340 | going to spend 10 billion dollars a year no no no he he said it for a quarter and then he had to take

00:20:30.780 | it back and cancel it oh yeah they took it back yeah yeah but that's what he wanted to do um and

00:20:36.480 | so to your point like it's very hard to get a lot of money out of it and it's very hard to get a lot of money out of it

00:20:37.860 | it's hard to really build things now yes but it can be done and look I think one of the I am it

00:20:45.060 | what is happening in the world today geopolitically is tragic the war we experience Ukraine is

00:20:49.500 | absolutely tragic but from all tragedies come some some good things there's always a silver lining

00:20:54.120 | and one of the silver lines here I think should be the acceleration of reshoring of all these

00:20:59.040 | products into America to rebuild our industrial base because we actually can do it I can tell

00:21:03.720 | you I am started my career basically as a factory manager in California

00:21:07.800 | it can be done there are Americans who want to make stuff between here Mexico Canada we can make

00:21:13.020 | Pharma we can make high-tech products yes the price might be a little higher but I gotta tell

00:21:16.740 | you iteration could be better and your value will be better if the product is better people will pay

00:21:20.160 | for it and resiliency and resilient listen for 100 100 all right we uh are setting up a couple of

00:21:27.420 | microphones here Antonio has been gracious enough to join us for some Q a the audience is filled

00:21:31.980 | with entrepreneurs capital allocators artists and builders so we're going to put a couple of

00:21:36.360 | microphones out there hopefully we'll be able to get some of those microphones out there hopefully

00:21:37.740 | some lights on the microphones if I can see them line up and remember the rule we don't need to know

00:21:43.080 | about your company just a tight concise question anybody does any marketing or promotion we're all

00:21:49.800 | going to groan let's practice a ground three two oh no guard you can say your name you can

00:21:57.060 | say your favorite also wait before we start yeah if Chris is Chris Malloy okay uh everybody you

00:22:05.460 | guys may want to just know Chris whenever you're in Vegas

00:22:07.680 | uh Chris is the guy at Carbone in Las Vegas which is the most you know best restaurant reservation

00:22:13.860 | to get but Chris bought a bottle of wine for us that we can open now and drink while we do the

00:22:17.760 | AMA yeah oh well bring up a bottle of wine anyways that's Chris Malloy say hi to him get his number

00:22:22.320 | and text him if you're ever in Las Vegas I mean only Chamath would bring the captain of Carbone to

00:22:31.020 | our event oh create the drink let's drink some wine yeah that's fantastic all right first question tell

00:22:36.900 | us your favorite bestie and then yeah we're still doing favorite besties right your bestie and then

00:22:40.920 | a quick tight question go all right favorite bestie J Cal uh point guard of the century to this team so

00:22:46.380 | hats off to you um my question is first of all we've been here all week uh in the last three

00:22:54.000 | days watching these cards fall from the sky yeah and we all know that you guys Center around this

00:22:58.860 | poker table this beautiful game my question is how is that game influence both your relationships and

00:23:05.760 | decision making in business and your personal lives great question Chamath start us up and you

00:23:11.580 | can go to the back and the next person cue up how is poker influence a friendship our lives how is

00:23:17.100 | the poker game itself had an impact on our lives okay I think I really do believe this but I think

00:23:22.440 | it's the most incredible game and training ground for business because in any given moment you are

00:23:30.720 | forced to deal with the spectrum of good information to moderate information to bad information good

00:23:38.100 | outcomes moderate outcomes bad outcomes you're taking risk you're learning information you're

00:23:44.040 | adjusting your style and the most important thing is you're forced to anchor to your core values or

00:23:51.180 | not how you behave at the table is how you behave in life you know you can take this like a new Phil

00:23:56.640 | Muth yeah yeah you can take these wins poorly you can take these wins well you can take the losses

00:24:02.340 | poorly you can take the loss as well I I would encourage all of you to learn to play the game

00:24:06.900 | with your friends it's it's a beautiful beautiful start a weekly game sacks well they put the game

00:24:12.660 | at Chamath South is how I got to be friends with Chamath right I mean I'm just saying this is what

00:24:18.420 | you guys tell your wives while you stay up all night playing poker because I've been there with

00:24:20.880 | you guys it's pretty freaking degenerate yeah we're all holding hands exactly baby it's training

00:24:27.540 | it's training for business no it is famous I'm kidding you but I've been there I've been there

00:24:31.200 | I've been there I've seen the drinking the food too it is trading for business we're not degenerates

00:24:35.640 | but that's actually well I was just saying Chamath I mean didn't you invest in Yammer after I started

00:24:41.940 | playing in your weekly poker game yeah and it was actually so degenerate what really happened after

00:24:47.220 | that was I was in Las Vegas in 2011.

00:24:50.820 | I had just left Facebook I moved to Vegas and I was on the phone with Sax in between playing

00:24:57.180 | tournaments and he like let me in invest in Yammer literally like and you know you did me an

00:25:04.200 | incredible solid because I put money in and you know what this is like nine months later he sells

00:25:09.840 | to Microsoft and I returned a third of my first fund oh yum yum and it really solidified my

00:25:16.920 | reputation so I mean I owe you a big one for that well but anyway

00:25:20.760 | I got to tell you about this though so David says I've known David for 25 years he did Yammer I want

00:25:25.740 | to put money in he said no because if this is a true story it's true story he said no he said he

00:25:33.360 | said no because if this fails you are my backup plan oh for a job yes well you know for me for me

00:25:40.620 | a job I wanted David to come join me I was so afraid of losing everyone's money when I founded

00:25:44.880 | a company you know he took a little time for me I wanted to have like one friend who's my head and I

00:25:50.160 | wanted to lose but you know that was the wrong way of thinking about it we should have we should have

00:25:53.820 | free Burke I mean how is the game well I'll look before Chamath are you leaving no I'm great no no

00:25:59.340 | wait come come back for a sec okay he'll get glasses he's getting one I'll tell you guys one

00:26:04.800 | thing Chamath is one of the most generous people you will ever meet it's unbelievable he's

00:26:08.580 | unbelievable and for all of his for all of his bluster about his friggin mink coats and like

00:26:16.020 | chinchilla uh he has brought together a group

00:26:20.040 | and he largely is the reason that I think the game grows and goes on and you saw some of the

00:26:25.260 | amazing people that we've had on stage here some of our friends are here that we play in our game

00:26:28.680 | with that um really that that Network has been built and solidified because of Chamath and his

00:26:34.680 | generosity and friendship that's it's it's really um something I've I've learned to appreciate in my

00:26:39.060 | life and you know thank you thanks yeah yeah I mean it's yeah it's a tremendous group and uh yeah

00:26:44.100 | amazing people like amazing people and yeah um the consistency

00:26:49.860 | of it has been amazing um from the degenerate Chamath had this like little tiny two million

00:26:54.780 | dollar house with like a one and a half car garage when he was at Facebook and we we would play in the

00:27:00.060 | garage that little tiny place you had remember yeah yeah um you know before you bought the two

00:27:04.860 | houses next door and knocked them down and you know gentrified but uh true story um Saks uh uh

00:27:13.740 | said hey you know you're doing these conferences you should invest in the companies and this is

00:27:17.820 | why I put the fix in for him to win TechCrunch 50 at Yammer with Yammer he said I have to win and

00:27:22.980 | then he his wife told my wife he has to win so then I basically got the whole jury to vote for

00:27:27.420 | him with Yammer he wins and he goes hey schmuck all of my success is due to J Cal you guys understand

00:27:32.340 | but he said listen I want to thank you for this and you should start a fund instead of doing all

00:27:41.220 | this work at the conference why don't you just invest in the companies I'll put 250k into your

00:27:44.700 | fund I'll be the anchor I said that's incredible really and he said yeah

00:27:47.760 | and then I went to the poker table I told the story and then Dave Goldberg rest in peace one

00:27:51.240 | of our great friends um and and certainly the the best amongst us thank you um he uh he said I'll

00:27:57.720 | put money into it thank you and uh he put money in and then Billy said I'll put money in and

00:28:02.700 | everybody said they put money in freeberg said I'll take a pass um but you know we'll put that

00:28:09.360 | aside anyway um I was all locked up in other stuff yeah he's like I got a kinwa farm I've got

00:28:15.300 | to take care of it cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers okay okay all right let me see

00:28:19.560 | fellowship and this is a true this is a true story uh Bill Lee's there uh he couldn't make

00:28:28.260 | it to here but he's one of our great friends and and one of Elon's best friends in the world and

00:28:32.460 | um he said of course I'm in um would you mind if I tell our billionaire friend

00:28:37.380 | um the the co-founder of um eBay Jeff Skoll and uh he tells him uh Jake how's doing a

00:28:45.240 | lot and you should do it I meet Jeff Skoll's money manager uh and uh Jan and I I said hey here's what

00:28:52.620 | I'm doing I'm a first-time fund manager I don't know what the I'm doing I'm a former

00:28:55.440 | journalist and he said how much is the fun I said 10 million he said I'll take half and I said

00:28:59.940 | I'm sorry and he said I'll take five million and that was the biggest check I ever got and it was

00:29:06.600 | because of Billy and literally that first fund uh was raised around the poker table in one night and

00:29:13.320 | uh that changed the trajectory of my career

00:29:14.880 | and that really is the Fellowship and it started with David and you hosting and I remember it's

00:29:19.380 | like yesterday and I I think maybe also a good moment to uh just maybe cheers to to Goldie oh

00:29:24.960 | yeah Dave Goldberg um no longer with and Tony Shag who played in the game as well two incredible men

00:29:31.080 | next question hey um my name is bovin favorite bestie is trimoth great to uh thank you last night

00:29:38.940 | um Antonio is also our people too so he's a passion all right listen we

00:29:44.700 | got your match invested quick with the question let's go yeah my main question is like when you

00:29:48.600 | guys actually decided to manage capital for people like what really was the scariest step

00:29:54.660 | in taking that leap and taking that risk I know a lot of you are GPs solo GP so

00:30:00.240 | I mean Zach you made a big leap what's the scariest step well I mean even as a founder

00:30:08.760 | like I mentioned before I was like so worried about losing people's money I mean that was like

00:30:13.020 | I mean I don't know if like founders today you know I don't know if like founders today you know you're

00:30:14.580 | they even care that much that just seems but uh it just seems like oh company didn't work move on

00:30:20.460 | to the next one um I mean maybe that'll change now that the environment's not gonna be as free

00:30:24.240 | flowing but I was always like really worried I was gonna lose people's money yeah and you know

00:30:28.440 | it was something I remember when I started social capital I think I was playing I'd be right I was

00:30:35.280 | either playing golf or I had dinner with Chase Coleman in New York and Chase says to me I'll

00:30:39.900 | tell you the one piece of advice Julian gave me when I started Tiger Robo I said what was that

00:30:43.320 | this is 2009 and he said

00:30:44.460 | this is a death sentence and I was like well what does that mean and he said you are the only person

00:30:51.480 | that's going to live with this because you're responsible especially based on who your LPs are

00:30:55.260 | for folks that if you really think about who they are it's just going to create this thing

00:31:00.480 | there and it's like you know and I was I was lucky in that moment because we were we were

00:31:04.140 | able to get like the Knight Foundation and Mayo Clinic and these folks that are doing these good

00:31:08.760 | works but then you're representing their capital it's heavy it's heavy because you make this

00:31:14.340 | decision yeah and if it's wrong you just feel literally like you're derelict and you're taking

00:31:19.980 | money away from sick children or you know free speech I mean it's it was a that's a brutally

00:31:26.640 | stressful thing to lose money on behalf of people by the way I'll recommend if any as a founder if

00:31:32.220 | you raise money raise money from your friends too and it'll really change how you operate yeah I

00:31:36.960 | mean I I raised the first fund from my friends and I tell you I took every single deal very seriously

00:31:41.880 | and I did my diligence and I was very thoughtful

00:31:44.220 | about it how about you Antonio oh man our first fund there are two fears I had the first one was

00:31:49.560 | raised from I live in Chicago from my friends in Chicago and I literally said to one of my

00:31:54.120 | partners at the time if this doesn't work I have to move I'll have to really do Chicago because in

00:32:00.300 | Chicago you might get killed if he's not looking back this is not like I thought you mean the

00:32:04.560 | weather no no no I mean these guys lose your money witness protection exactly these guys lose your

00:32:08.760 | money people kind of like oh I'm sad about it Chicago would like break your legs they burn

00:32:11.880 | your house down man it's a whole different a whole different thing all right let's take

00:32:14.100 | another question oh sorry no keep going no the second thing I mean honestly the worst thing for

00:32:18.000 | me the most scary thing for me was just the people I had I had three or four guys that

00:32:21.120 | worked with building companies before that and I knew if I just felt if I disappointed them if

00:32:24.960 | we failed um I would have felt terrible yeah yeah yeah it certainly makes you uh focus on the game

00:32:30.960 | it's like being staked in poker you play better uh sir I have a question for the 17th most important

00:32:36.720 | person from PayPal okay I'm just kidding obviously Friedberg is my favorite bestie um all right let's

00:32:43.980 | go out we've been let's go nerd unbelievable the free bird love all right free bird soak it in

00:32:52.440 | uh you've been talking about uh how all this increased money supply has been sending the

00:32:57.480 | asset prices up and now it's unwinding I don't think we've heard you talked about crypto

00:33:01.320 | specifically Bitcoin has obviously come down but it's still over three times uh where it was pre

00:33:06.180 | pandemic curious what you think will happen in that world as this unwinds you want me to dress up

00:33:13.860 | for you most important guy so the the thing the thing about the crypto market to understand is

00:33:18.720 | that it's like a liquidity sponge the more liquidity there is out there the more people

00:33:24.240 | feel empowered to make speculative investments and crypto is like the most speculative now that's not

00:33:31.260 | to say um you know it's not real I actually do believe in Bitcoin I think uh there'll be a number

00:33:37.620 | of other um sort of alt currencies that work but probably the vast majority will not and

00:33:43.740 | there's been a tremendous amount of speculation and inflation there and so that space is in the

00:33:49.440 | process of correcting you know I've never been able to say like what the right price levels for

00:33:53.940 | any of this stuff are um let's say you believe in Bitcoin long term let's say you believe it's

00:33:59.820 | going to be the first non-fiat currency what price should that be today you know it's it's

00:34:06.180 | there's no like discounted cash flow analysis you can apply to it so it's always been very

00:34:11.100 | hard to know what the prices of these things should be and

00:34:13.620 | so in practice the price is a function of how much liquidity is in the system and when you

00:34:18.540 | go through a period of liquidity getting destroyed it's no surprise that crypto goes first with it

00:34:23.580 | Antonio have you touched I mean you you were so into physical assets and building real things like

00:34:29.040 | spaceships and rocket ships when you watch this crypto bubble you know grow and burst and grow

00:34:35.640 | and burst and now it's burst again what's your take well first I want to I bought my first crypto

00:34:43.500 | scheme because David Sachs and Bill Lee were pushing the Ponzi scheme on me so they were like

00:34:47.580 | they were I was at a birthday party I think you probably were there too yeah they were like they

00:34:51.300 | were they were hawking Bitcoin so I bought something nobody had heard of it at that point

00:34:54.120 | I know I bought something I think it was like 800 bucks so here's my general view I actually think

00:34:59.100 | I think that Bitcoin in particular is a bet on a rising political risk and on political freedom

00:35:04.380 | economic freedom is uh is closer to political freedom and last time I looked Ukrainians are the

00:35:12.000 | third largest holders of Bitcoin and if I were to look at the rest of the world I would say that

00:35:13.380 | if I were staying in Taiwan today I would have 10 50 assets Bitcoin so this this removes um the

00:35:19.740 | ability to control currency capital controls from governments I think this is very important and it

00:35:24.420 | should survive price levels I don't know I do have a you know a reasonable amount of Bitcoin

00:35:28.920 | as a hedge to political risk globally and that's how we think about it we have invested in

00:35:33.600 | infrastructure assets in and around a blockchain with Dave we have a couple assets because we

00:35:39.300 | believe that blockchain itself is a platform shift in the technology of tracking assets

00:35:43.260 | this is a real thing and it's going to happen it's going to change the way we do finance so

00:35:47.160 | we invest in infrastructure got it let's take another question Ted is right Mike over there

00:35:51.600 | oh I'm sorry we're going to take one from here we'll alternate so um tight is right yeah hi uh

00:35:58.620 | car mantra CEO of credo um I have to say I'm a science nerd Friedberg but J Cal it's been

00:36:05.400 | awesome today um I and I want to say you guys like your courage and bravery to do what you've done

00:36:12.120 | with the pod

00:36:13.140 | and watching this today like thank you thank you yeah um you've talked a lot about later stage I'm

00:36:24.180 | wondering if you could like tune in a little bit more on on pre-seed and seed and kind of what

00:36:28.500 | you're seeing in terms of valuations and metrics that that you've got to hit in in the earlier

00:36:34.440 | stages it's very simple you know uh I invested in um uber thumbtack and calm for 15 million dollars

00:36:43.020 | combined that was their combined valuation post money post money and those all three companies

00:36:49.080 | had products in the market and then what we saw over the last five years is people wanting credit

00:36:54.480 | for a white paper a prototype an MVP to the tune of 15 to 50 million dollars and we did sit out some

00:37:02.640 | of those and said listen when the product is ready let's take a look at the product and talk to the

00:37:06.120 | first two or three customers to David's point about zero to one customers is a really hard hurdle and

00:37:11.880 | um now it's a little bit more complicated but I think it's a little bit more complicated than the

00:37:12.900 | current one so I think it's a little bit more complicated than the current one so I think it's

00:37:13.080 | a little bit more complicated than the current one so I think it's a little bit more complicated than the current one so I think it's

00:37:13.080 | back down to six to 15 million for a company that has a product in market and maybe 50 to 100 times

00:37:21.840 | yearly revenue for evaluation so to the extent you can get to 200k in yearly revenue you can get you

00:37:29.040 | know a 10 to 20 million dollar valuation so I'd say halfway back to normal and perhaps a permanent

00:37:34.740 | uh you know livable reset because the outcomes have been pretty fantastic so the early stage

00:37:40.140 | should go up the only thing you really need to raise money

00:37:42.780 | is to build a world-class product and just get a couple of customers who are absolutely blown

00:37:50.640 | away by what you've built that's all you need but everybody gets concerned with the Beatrix

00:37:55.200 | and the performative stuff and their Network and nonsense and who you are where you came

00:38:00.840 | from none of it matters build a world-class product that two or three people are obsessed

00:38:05.400 | with and you'll get the C check focus I think right if Brad Gerstner had uh

00:38:12.660 | sorry to interrupt your applause J Cal I know that's important to you

00:38:15.300 | um I'll take one little I can get so I think Brad Gerstner made a really important point on

00:38:21.780 | this which is the new normal is going to look like the old normal meaning the pre-covet normal

00:38:26.820 | we had the the the abnormal period was this two-year covet period where 10 trillion of

00:38:33.240 | liquidity is pumped into the system things are going back to what they look like before all

00:38:37.020 | of that happened and maybe before the fed started with this zero interest rate policy so we're

00:38:42.540 | actually getting back to normal understand that the the environment we're entering now is is the

00:38:48.480 | normality the abnormal period was the inflation we saw in assets over the past couple of years

00:38:53.580 | that's the like reset that everyone's gonna have to like wrap their heads around Sachs you're my

00:38:59.220 | boy finally finally one percent I I I think there may be some preference false falsification around

00:39:07.200 | this because people don't want to admit they're conservative all the polling all the polling shows

00:39:12.420 | this so but anyway thank you sir and your second favorite bestie is Tucker go

00:39:16.920 | uh for early stage SAS investors which most of you are in an increasingly digital world

00:39:24.120 | where are there are large SAS solutions for nearly everything how do you think about

00:39:28.680 | selecting companies and founders in the early stage that are coming to market with a small

00:39:32.820 | amount of utility and how do you think about they compete with companies with already established

00:39:37.080 | customer distribution yeah so I think you know one of the things I really like about

00:39:42.300 | SAS which is your software as a service basically B2B software it's business software okay that's

00:39:47.280 | sold as a subscription is that the world's never going to run out of new ideas for business

00:39:53.040 | software business keeps changing so therefore the software that businesses need will keep changing

00:39:57.960 | and there will always be an opportunity there for new companies new verticals new new niches

00:40:03.360 | they'll always be um you know new new ideas and so I'm never worried about running out in terms of how we

00:40:12.180 | evaluate the actual idea you know uh we've actually been super transparent around the metrics that we

00:40:17.940 | need to see it really does start with a company hitting the metrics hurdle that we need to see

00:40:24.000 | for for example a series A um you know it's a call it you're roughly more or less a million dollars

00:40:29.880 | of ARR you want to be growing 15 month over month certain net dollar retention certain capital

00:40:34.860 | efficiency we've all we've published it you know on our website on our blog so um it's it starts

00:40:42.060 | with that and then once we know that like our thresholds have been hit then we get into more

00:40:47.220 | qualitative or subjective factors like you know what do we think about this founder in this market

00:40:52.140 | um but one thing I like about it is just it's uh it's very well defined like what we're looking for

00:40:59.340 | and so you know just go to our blog you'll see we'll tell you exactly there's no mystery outside

00:41:04.800 | of productivity tools though there's not a single company that can stay in one category and become

00:41:10.080 | really big what does that mean

00:41:11.940 | um there's not a single public company that doesn't have now an entire strategy that says

00:41:16.860 | we sell it SMB mid-market and Enterprise and so the thing for SAS businesses unless you're like a

00:41:23.400 | really powerful productivity tool like a slack or an Atlassian your valuation capped in the mid to

00:41:29.220 | high single digit billions as as it currently stands today that's just the law of the math in

00:41:34.920 | the public markets on how you're rewarded though how do you grow out of it you have to embrace a

00:41:39.720 | strategy that actually does more where you

00:41:41.820 | become a system of record so it's a good example is like a zen desk they hit an upper bound you

00:41:46.800 | know there are many of these examples and so if you're building a SAS business or you're investing

00:41:51.240 | in this aspect is the other thing to think about is in the absence of being a productivity tool

00:41:55.440 | of which again there are a few um everything else has to find a way of being applicable

00:42:03.000 | to larger bodies over time in order to maintain valuation we're going to try and move faster so

00:42:09.120 | we can get more people another question here hi there guys uh

00:42:11.700 | favorite besties probably four-way tie but maybe chamath edges out just a bit okay um

00:42:16.920 | quick question tight is right so um you know you guys have done incredibly well so what what would

00:42:27.600 | you do if you're dropped in the middle of say Kansas take away the resource take away the

00:42:32.280 | network and take you back to age 25 what would you do and why Antonio take it I'm actually from

00:42:38.640 | Michigan I got dropped in the middle there with no resources and not a lot to do uh and I wasn't

00:42:44.160 | 25 I was in my early 20s um I would I would find a way to make it work man you should get you should

00:42:50.580 | actually whatever scale you want to start at whatever job you have I would try and start a

00:42:54.780 | little company there's always people and listen a place that grabs Michigan man you could cut grass

00:42:58.800 | I had a little computer company while I was 12 years old doing like networking for people in the

00:43:02.340 | old days I mean there's always something you can do if you had a valuable skill build a skill start

00:43:06.480 | a company and just get started start making money and you're gonna get a lot of money and you're gonna

00:43:08.520 | start moving and make good decisions along the way one good decision compounds on top of the other

00:43:13.320 | and all four of these guys what they have done in their careers is made very good decisions and

00:43:17.460 | they've kept moving when they've had problems you start early yeah you gotta start early they may I

00:43:22.920 | just want to tell you this they may look like super successful guys now and they are but it

00:43:26.880 | wasn't easy and it wasn't linear they've all had ups and downs they've all had problems and they

00:43:32.340 | all and they also do what they what they do and I have great respect for all four of them I know

00:43:35.940 | them all well they keep making good decisions

00:43:38.400 | they're highly resilient and they just keep going and I would tell you to the same thing

00:43:42.720 | yeah you got the only thing I'd add to that is to keep is to keep learning I'm getting some closer

00:43:47.280 | oh yeah you're good I haven't had any man I just got here um but I would just say keep learning as

00:43:56.700 | well like one of the biggest advantages I've had in my career is that I try to always learn as new

00:44:01.920 | stuff as often as I can and whenever I find an area of interest I pursue it in terms of deepening

00:44:07.260 | my understanding of it and and that's what I'm trying to do and I'm trying to do it in a way that's

00:44:08.280 | always created opportunities for me that I wouldn't have just stumbled across or walked my way

00:44:13.260 | it's such a great opportunity to have you here and Tony when I asked you to do this you had never been

00:44:17.400 | on a podcast before have you never done this kind of thing I've never done this kind of thing and

00:44:21.540 | um no it's awesome thanks I'm only doing it because it's a four of you and I am usually

00:44:25.260 | very private but I'm enjoying it incredible voice you know it's like very like very NPR

00:44:31.380 | it's like hey everybody you're listening to the politics and culture I'm

00:44:38.160 | Antonio gracias people tell me I have a voice for radio and pornography yeah yeah

00:44:42.240 | it works pretty well go hey guys I'm Samantha favorite bestie is Friedberg

00:44:49.620 | um I run the factory automation team for a large semiconductor manufacturer in the United States

00:44:55.320 | um really unimpressed with the innovation in industrial automation and so I'm really

00:45:02.820 | interested to hear your thoughts on where you see the next disruptions in automation

00:45:08.040 | um also maybe a question for Antonio where do you see uh the disruptor specifically in how we

00:45:13.680 | get not only the technology but the economies of scale uh for these really capital intensive

00:45:18.600 | businesses in the U.S this is your guy cancer yeah for sure and by the way you should talk about

00:45:23.400 | uh automation at I don't know if you want to but sure yeah yeah I mean we we know a lot of automation

00:45:28.200 | one of my partners is like a genius engineer in this area and you're particularly in the chip

00:45:31.740 | business you said right yeah so you know TSMC basically took the this idea of outsourcing manufacturing assets that Intel

00:45:37.920 | did with TSMC the beginning that created that business and moved most of our high technology

00:45:41.880 | and chips often offshore into Taiwan this is like a terrible idea and we I think as I said earlier in

00:45:48.420 | industrial policies country I think we need industrial policy to bring cheap manufacturing

00:45:52.260 | back it's very important and the problem you have in automation chip manufacturer particular is you

00:45:57.840 | know when you think about where all the great Engineers go today they're good automation

00:46:00.240 | they're not going there because they're competing TSMC so you have a you have a couple of info fabs

00:46:04.980 | still in the U.S but we have to have some Paul I think actually it's going to require

00:46:07.800 | industrial policy to force people like Intel AMD to want to bring stuff back into the U.S and to

00:46:13.380 | really get great talent to want to do it do you think there's opportunities outside of Greenfield

00:46:17.940 | models to kind of reinvigorate and unlock the capacity that we have in some of our older

00:46:23.460 | manufacturing here in the U.S yes I do I I look I the we at Tesla took over the free this Fremont

00:46:28.560 | factory was a former GM Toyota factory and you know we retooled it it was look we would have

00:46:34.140 | been we had to do it because we had any money and it was free basically um

00:46:37.680 | but if you if you took that approach and you got the you you got really great entrepreneurs to focus

00:46:42.840 | on this problem through an industrial policy they need money to do it I think you'd get great

00:46:46.200 | innovation look Nvidia is actually here in the U.S this is a rally this is a great chip company

00:46:50.340 | uh and the fabs they use are spread all over the world but if you gave Nvidia fab or two who knows

00:46:56.640 | what happens it was the right price yeah Jensen's a great CEO did you go to that site favorite bestie

00:47:03.360 | Jason you keep uh the ship together you're the glue that keeps it together

00:47:07.560 | uh my name is Chris my friend and I started all in talk nine months ago uh the fan page for the

00:47:13.740 | thank you cheers to you yeah it's uh it's really uh obviously I was I was at the outdoor mall near

00:47:19.380 | my house and my dog attacked another dog and the guy was like it's okay I saw you on TikTok

00:47:23.280 | so that was because of you but that wasn't your channel that was for his kin watch channel it

00:47:30.840 | wasn't your channel that was so my question is in the 22 2022 predictions uh episode Chamath you talk

00:47:37.440 | about uh all-in media idea and starting an all-in media channel maybe and I wonder if you guys have

00:47:44.520 | talked about that anymore your your goals for the future on that because I'm pretty sure everyone

00:47:49.380 | would agree here that if you did start one it would do a whole of a lot better than CNN plus so

00:47:55.740 | well that that may not be a very high bar yeah it's a very low bar uh I think we actually we

00:48:02.940 | actually did get together the four of us we sat in freeberg's office what a show

00:48:07.320 | people started yelling two people walked out the sacks sacks just started to do this at the table

00:48:13.680 | yeah I'm definitely a good driver my dad that's driving the driveway it wasn't a productive

00:48:19.260 | conversation it was completely unproductive it was completely that was our first and only meeting

00:48:24.900 | but no but we did take one key step which is that freeberg said I'm gonna get my team to draft the

00:48:31.860 | LLC agreement for the four of us which we refused to sign and but now no one signed it but it's in

00:48:37.200 | our trust free but it's in our inbox so we're one step closer to starting it but joking aside I

00:48:42.420 | still think that uh it'll become inevitable and I think the reason is the two people the robots

00:48:49.620 | non-humans that were uh uncomfortable with human interaction David's David's work uh

00:48:57.540 | once once we do the the recap of this I think it'll be they'll I think these two are probably

00:49:05.340 | the most shocked

00:49:06.060 | at that no I'll tell you by the way my observation I used to go to Ted I went to Ted from 2008 till

00:49:11.880 | 2019. I stopped going to Ted because I thought the content went to and it basically got

00:49:16.260 | overtaken with like social justice talks and like you started like tech and interesting ideas about

00:49:21.060 | where the world's headed and like I listened to our speakers this week the last few days and I'm

00:49:24.840 | like man like really fantastic content I'm like this could be the new Ted so I got really

00:49:28.620 | invigorated by that like I really thought I felt like that was really messy

00:49:35.940 | and I think and by the way I think I think it's conversations people don't really seem to want

00:49:39.780 | to have right like and that and those are well make them really and let's just say you are not

00:49:44.640 | the earliest believer in this was going to get pulled off to I cannot tell you how many times

00:49:50.880 | I've considered quitting the pod and not even showing up for this event and I give Jason props

00:49:55.500 | publicly for doing a great job pulling this thing off so go go hey guys my name is Sarah and I really

00:50:05.340 | love all of you you got me through a very tough challenging time when I started listening to you

00:50:10.020 | I came here over a 16 hour flight from Abu Dhabi so thank you wow that's a long flight we love you

00:50:18.060 | we love you I have a comment and a question the comment um and maybe David um I have a lot of

00:50:26.460 | relatives in Sweden and um when the Ukraine war started this is uh very amiable innovative beautiful people

00:50:35.220 | um haven't had a war over 150 years and they were putting gas in their car and supplying cans of

00:50:43.500 | goods and got really really nervous about what's happening and we're watching closely to see what

00:50:49.440 | would be the next step I think if the U.S did not step in um so there's a lot of reality out there

00:50:56.100 | um for the U.S to stay I don't know like the Savior of the world in a certain way or another

00:51:02.640 | um Finnish people felt the same way

00:51:05.100 | um so this is a real big reality out in the Western European world not just Eastern Europe

00:51:13.680 | so um that's on my comment so thank you uh for the question and this comes from my husband

00:51:21.480 | uh if you're sitting on excess liquidity right now and want to invest for a long time

00:51:34.980 | was that a transition from World War III to investment advice stock tips stock tips in the

00:51:44.280 | market we want to say that is dynamic range right there yeah well done well done you want you've gone

00:51:50.100 | from two poles you know the ups and downs of my life so yes it is like that why don't we just take

00:51:57.360 | the first part because I think it'd be good so so on Ukraine you know I thought it was important to

00:52:03.060 | have this debate today where we got both sides of the issue and we got two people who are very

00:52:07.800 | passionate on both sides and um I tend to agree more with Glenn on it but um but that doesn't

00:52:15.660 | mean I I don't want to help Ukraine at all I just think we have to keep a close eye on preventing

00:52:21.060 | this thing from escalating into World War III because the Russians have six thousand nuclear

00:52:26.580 | weapons and their military doctrine says they can use them if they feel that they're existentially

00:52:32.940 | threatened and so you know if our objective here is to help the Ukrainians expel the Russians from

00:52:41.040 | an invasion that's one thing but if our objective if we have mission creep into destabilizing the

00:52:48.780 | Russian regime into basically trying to take back Crimea which they see as theirs

00:52:53.040 | um if our we're trying to weaken them to the point where they're no longer a great power

00:52:58.140 | we're really playing with fire there so we have to be really careful yeah about our

00:53:02.820 | objectives there and make sure that we don't let this thing spiral out of control Antonio what are

00:53:07.560 | you what do you have thoughts on Ukraine and are we being too dovish or hawkish or doing it just right

00:53:13.080 | so I think we are there's a lot more going on here than maybe to the eye and this question was about

00:53:19.920 | Sweden Finland and here's what I would say because I want to focus on that that if uh our our friends

00:53:26.040 | in particularly Northwestern Europe um should actually be arming themselves and if they arm

00:53:31.920 | themselves we won't have a problem with that because we're not going to be able to do anything

00:53:32.700 | we're going to have this problem that's the reality of it the reason Ukraine yes that's the reality

00:53:37.440 | obviously the time the time for sitting on the sidelines in Central Europe is over if you care

00:53:44.160 | about your country care about your children care about your families then you should arm yourselves

00:53:48.300 | period full stop an American we are happy to sell you weapons no problem with it without NATO I

00:53:52.620 | think that's true the reason Ukrainians are able to uh defend themselves is because they are they

00:53:57.720 | have actually been buying weapons and they bought they built their own weapons with the Turks that

00:54:01.620 | the the drones that are being used to destroy the Russian supply lines are not coming from America

00:54:05.400 | coming from a joint venture with the Turks this is the reality so should we be drawn into a war

00:54:09.900 | into Europe no I think it could start World War III should we help these folks defend themselves

00:54:13.320 | yes I should and in your particular part of the world yeah for sure start buying some weapons one

00:54:18.060 | question over here yeah tough to follow but my name is Ioana favorite bestie I think Friedberg I

00:54:24.660 | think you do a good job of being heard and hearing others equally so I think that's an important skill

00:54:28.800 | I'm trying to work on it myself Friedberg

00:54:31.020 | in terms of my question it's a little more qualitative but some of us were having an

00:54:39.720 | interesting discussion about first impressions last night and I'm curious to think one in terms

00:54:44.400 | of your own first impressions how has your the way that you introduce yourself to others changed

00:54:50.520 | as you've grown and what have you learned about that and on the other end what are some of the

00:54:55.020 | most notable first impressions others have made on you and why have those stood out to you

00:55:00.120 | it's an interesting question

00:55:01.380 | well seeing as only two of us have emotions maybe we can yeah we're gonna chop it out sure

00:55:11.100 | I'm gonna go to the bathroom you won't find any emotions there

00:55:18.300 | turn the mic off please the quinoa oh my God oh my Lord well that Baba ganush goes right through you

00:55:26.820 | continue

00:55:28.140 | Baba gonna

00:55:30.060 | I think that when I was younger um I was more insecure so I had to wear what few labels I had

00:55:38.940 | on my sleeve and use them as a weapon before others could use their labels on me I honestly

00:55:45.120 | felt that way you know and in Silicon Valley at the time you know it really there is a very

00:55:50.820 | monocultural aspect of you know folks from a few schools you know folks having worked at a few

00:55:56.760 | companies um and I had neither you know I worked I went to Waterloo which is in Canada and I worked

00:56:02.640 | at AOL so I didn't go to Stanford and I didn't work at Google um or Yahoo and there was a there's

00:56:08.520 | a great lineage and of of where you know the really credentialed credible folks came from

00:56:15.300 | and so you do what any insecure person does you kind of throw what few things you have out there

00:56:20.520 | very quickly yeah you know trying to one up the person in front of you yeah and that's calmed down

00:56:26.700 | a lot so that's probably the biggest thing that's changed it has and I think it's a I have a similar

00:56:31.320 | observation I when I was taking that R train into Manhattan I used to say to myself Jason

00:56:36.540 | calacanis editor-in-chief Jason calacanis millionaire and I was like literally had a

00:56:43.080 | 16-page photocopy magazine called Silicon High reporter and I was trying to convince myself

00:56:47.160 | that someday I would be somebody and I think that narrative was important for me and people when I

00:56:53.160 | would give them the 16-page photocopy I'd say here's my magazine they'd say there's a photocopy

00:56:56.640 | I'd say no it's a magazine it's got a picture on the cover because for me that was that why it was

00:57:01.620 | a magazine and it eventually became a very large magazine in fact of 300 pages and today thank you

00:57:08.340 | um so I think there is something about manifesting stuff and just you know believing that you're

00:57:13.380 | going to get there but today I I define myself by um the things I love to do so when people do ask

00:57:19.980 | me now hey what do you do I say I'm a writer and I have a podcast and I angel invest and I don't say

00:57:25.620 | it's the number one podcast or I'm one of the top Angel investor all the time I just I just think

00:57:30.360 | about what I don't say that and I don't say you know like it's the you know the book is in 11

00:57:36.720 | languages or whatever I got a million dollar Advance I just there's no ego about it I just say

00:57:44.640 | writer podcaster Angel okay how did it go in there okay David you okay what sort of advance are you

00:57:54.120 | getting a million dollars

00:57:55.560 | dollars he said a million dollar Advance I mean the book's in 12 languages now thank you I'll sign

00:58:01.260 | it if you have one I'll sign it next question sometimes I think Jason's just pimping out all

00:58:06.480 | of us to fuel his media career yeah you think sometimes hey David all honesty how is the deal

00:58:14.880 | flow gone since you got this podcast I think it's down 50 percent that was the intent that was the

00:58:22.140 | intent of more deal flow coming this way definitely definitely definitely definitely

00:58:25.500 | 100 that's since you went on Tucker go hi today the crypto world is focused on decentralization

00:58:32.400 | speculation and stores of value who here is excited about micro payments and whoever is

00:58:37.560 | most excited which Industries do you think will be most impacted by the newfound ability to send

00:58:42.960 | payments in as little as 100th of a penny go ahead oh favorite bestie they want to take it

00:58:49.080 | yeah good sex um so you know this question of micro payments has come up all the way since you

00:58:54.960 | were back to when I was working on PayPal and one of the problems with micro payments is as the name

00:58:59.760 | suggests the amounts are very very small so you have to do a lot of them to create enough volume

00:59:05.640 | for them to be meaningful and so there's always sort of this market size problem now for crypto

00:59:11.460 | there may be more of an opportunity there because um the way that the old credit card Rails Network

00:59:17.760 | works is there's like a 25 cent charge per transaction and so like a PayPal it just didn't

00:59:23.040 | make sense to facilitate micro payments and so I think that's a really good question and I think

00:59:24.900 | that's a really good question and I think that's a really good question and I think that's a really good question because the cost of that transaction always

00:59:28.020 | exceeded the fee that we could get so you're right that or I think what you're suggesting

00:59:34.560 | with your question is that there is sort of a crypto opportunity to do this in a different way

00:59:40.080 | because you can basically do a costless instantaneous transfer using a blockchain

00:59:45.540 | based currency so I'm sure someone's going to do something interesting with that and then the

00:59:49.560 | question is just how like what does that aggregate into is it is it going to be big enough to be by

00:59:54.600 | the way there's a there's an interim step which is also pretty obvious at least to me which is this

00:59:59.100 | idea that you know for example like if stripe actually took the time to embrace one of these

01:00:05.520 | stable coins there's no reason why stripe needs to actually run on interchange as well because

01:00:09.780 | like you can just basically swap that dollar in a ledger into USDC let's just pick that as an

01:00:15.180 | example not tether not to tilt you um running on those rails for free and then you can just swap that dollar in a ledger into USDC let's just pick that as an example not tether not to tilt you running on those rails for free and that's the way it works

01:00:19.500 | and then basically transfer it back and it's it's not it's not obvious why people you need the gas

01:00:23.820 | cost to come down so you know like you're running a transaction on ethereum or certainly Bitcoin

01:00:29.460 | other chains yeah yeah you need you need like a chain like a salon or something like something

01:00:35.340 | that's like super cheap and the the cognitive load of the transaction just the person deciding do they

01:00:43.080 | want to pay a tenth of a penny a penny is sometimes greater than the actual value of the money which

01:00:48.060 | then creates

01:00:49.440 | um almost like friction to them wanting to read the article let's take another question

01:00:54.480 | hi my name is Kate and my favorite bestie right now is Friedberg who often plays devil's advocate

01:01:01.260 | and so forces a stepwise conversation

01:01:03.780 | how many people did you pay off go ahead

01:01:11.580 | so that we all admire your successes but we've also been hearing from Mar for instance that we

01:01:18.420 | need to be comfortable with

01:01:19.380 | failure and we need to become resilient so when you look back on your careers thus far what have

01:01:24.960 | been the toughest moments the moments when you've made a mistake that have taught you a lot

01:01:29.100 | I mean I had two huge and Antonio must have some too yeah you want mistakes my mistakes that you'll

01:01:37.380 | learn the most from man um my biggest mistakes in life have been about people and I have uh over the

01:01:46.860 | years um made errors in in judging people and how honest they were and how good they were and as I

01:01:53.760 | look back on that it's because I have a weakness for ideas that are great and sometimes those come

01:01:59.280 | with great people and sometimes they don't the reality is there are some bad people out there

01:02:03.240 | who are acting really great and doing interesting things and we have um we've suffered from that I

01:02:08.100 | mean I know David and I were to deal together that suffered from that and it happens so I I would be

01:02:13.920 | I've learned a lot about that I've gone deep into neuroscience

01:02:16.620 | actually have a stat we have a woman who's got a PhD in the neuroscience of emotion Caltech now

01:02:21.960 | on staff that helps us uh learn as you said always learning about how to assess people and how to

01:02:28.380 | assess their emotional states that's the most important thing I think we've updated in our

01:02:32.940 | process and in my own thinking so you love the idea so much that you ignore other you ignored

01:02:39.960 | the other data that this person was not honorable truthful no I mean so there are

01:02:46.380 | times when uh there are two kinds of of this errors here one type of error is we just didn't

01:02:51.480 | see it because the person was so good at being bad they are you know one of the things a

01:02:55.140 | neuroscientist taught us is that about five percent of the human population has a brain

01:02:58.380 | anomaly that make them actual psychopaths defined as the the big doesn't fire properly when they do

01:03:02.820 | something bad guilt fear Etc and in our particular industry it's probably like 10 so we raised our

01:03:07.980 | base rate forecast at 10 and it's gotten better but there's something that's so good at it you

01:03:11.640 | just can't see it I mean Theranos Elizabeth Holmes okay like lots of smart people pointing that company

01:03:16.140 | didn't but it was it wasn't obvious to them obviously then there are then there are moments

01:03:20.520 | earlier on when we had yellow flags we overrode because we were so emotionally committed to the

01:03:24.720 | idea that we want we had a business we did was in the dental space was it was Medicaid dental

01:03:28.680 | cleanse for kids that were black and Hispanic and I'm you know I'm from that demographic and

01:03:32.580 | I wanted to make that great and the reality is we overrode yellow lights because we wanted to

01:03:37.320 | make it great and we failed you were going to add some of your I had two huge filters but they were

01:03:43.260 | they were more personal moments of learning for me one was

01:03:45.900 | you know we were in the midst of building a phone and it didn't come to pass and if I really think

01:03:50.280 | about what I thought the problem was this was when I was at Facebook what the problem then versus now

01:03:56.280 | then you know I would have said oh zuck and I had a huge kind of you know thing and blah blah now

01:04:01.860 | what I would have said is you know I didn't really understand my own limitations and what I was really

01:04:06.120 | asking of him in the board in that moment and then the second is there were all these moments

01:04:12.360 | that were people decisions

01:04:15.660 | um at social capital that ultimately manifested in sub quality financial and investment decisions

01:04:23.220 | and had I had it to do over again I would not have ignored some of the red flags because I was so

01:04:30.180 | desirous to be in the game to you know be in it that uh I probably you know look the other way a

01:04:38.100 | little bit on folks that you know just give you the practical example I remember in a 300 million

01:04:44.160 | dollar fund I put

01:04:45.420 | 25 or 30 million dollars into Bitcoin at 50 bucks a coin

01:04:49.740 | and when the thing went to like 150 or something just the pressure to distribute was so high

01:04:57.900 | and I had conviction I had all of these things I had all the voting control I had everything to

01:05:05.100 | just say no and I didn't have the courage to understand my role as a leader versus something

01:05:12.240 | you know my job as a investment partner

01:05:15.180 | um and so you learn you know you learn what you're good at you learn where your strengths are and uh

01:05:24.240 | you try to just get better try to fix those weaknesses I mean at the end of the day what

01:05:27.540 | we're both saying is the same thing which is ultimately it has nothing to do with anybody

01:05:30.420 | else it still comes back to you and what your skill set is in your toolbox and whether you're

01:05:34.560 | upgrading your toolbox everything free bird sacks any mistakes that you're able to access through

01:05:40.260 | your CPUs in your long-term storage

01:05:44.460 | well I think as you get older you learn how to pick your battles better and you just have to

01:05:50.160 | decide like what are the occasions that are really worth fighting for which aren't you know and

01:05:54.420 | sometimes you just let it go and others you have to fight so and just knowing when you should choose

01:06:00.000 | which path I think is really important when you were by the way the guy you really want behind

01:06:03.360 | you in a battle is this guy so phenomenal uh investor back when I was on the founder side

01:06:09.720 | of the table so good brawler yeah for sure that's why I got him a samurai sword for me

01:06:14.220 | a sword for his birthday he did yes a samurai the collection of Samurai Surgeon saw my apartment

01:06:20.760 | started with David Sachs and Samurai Sword ah yeah thank you David too what's your kids trying

01:06:27.060 | to play with it or something it was not a toy yes not a toy Friedberg uh anything in that long-term

01:06:31.680 | storage tape drives of uh I've made a lot of mistakes um it's really hard I I'm very hard on myself

01:06:40.140 | um

01:06:42.180 | when I was young I always said there's no limit and I always believe that and when I hit walls in

01:06:52.860 | my life it was very um very difficult because it totally countered what I what I felt was possible

01:07:01.440 | I always thought everything was going to be a success there's no way I'm gonna let anything

01:07:05.040 | fail there's no way I'm gonna let anything not work my voice is cracking not because I'm

01:07:09.960 | crying because I'm losing my voice so

01:07:11.760 | um we know it's all you need if you cry now there that everybody's gonna be please now

01:07:16.920 | it's all for the vote it's all for the vote he actually does have emotions see

01:07:22.440 | but I would say um he's smart and kind yeah and a vegan yeah he's perfect the biggest mistake I made

01:07:31.140 | he's my dream boyfriend

01:07:34.440 | maybe coming on the stage was the biggest mistake I've made joining the pop

01:07:41.520 | oh man but I think Antonio's point is right uh you know um you just have to be willing to to learn

01:07:47.280 | and um and evolve it's uh you know I I now know that my life isn't about everything I do has to

01:07:53.160 | work 100 of the time um and being so hard on myself caused a lot of like emotional challenges

01:07:58.740 | for me over time but getting um getting to this point where I can now be much more calculated

01:08:03.660 | um and just move forward quickly and learn from it um has been a big evolution for me

01:08:07.980 | um that's just a general statement yeah and I would oh sorry well no it's okay I just uh I

01:08:13.800 | would I was thinking about it while these guys were being so candid and I was immediately going

01:08:17.700 | to punt and go to the next question but I thought that would be unfair um you know I think two things

01:08:22.140 | one I think a lot of my decision making early on was out of fear uh fear of losing whatever I had

01:08:28.200 | gained up until that point so although I was a risk taker and I was being bold in one way I was

01:08:34.020 | also throttling myself because I was just so scared that I would lose whatever gains that I had gained

01:08:37.920 | as I had and it it made me an imperfect manager of people an imperfect person maybe on edge a

01:08:44.820 | little too much and maybe not picking my battles to David's point ever I saw everything as a battle

01:08:49.380 | because those wins were so important to me because they were so hard fought and then I think later in

01:08:55.080 | my life I realized I never actually thought about what I enjoyed I just thought about winning to an

01:09:00.840 | extent that was not healthy and then after Dave Goldberg died and Tony Shea died I really took a

01:09:07.620 | self-assessment of what I enjoyed doing and I mentioned this yesterday you know hanging out

01:09:12.360 | with these gentlemen and and to Antonio's way of phrasing it which is just beautiful the fellowship

01:09:16.440 | I thought that's the joy you know my family my kids my wife and this Fellowship with my friends

01:09:22.800 | that I wanted to invest in and I made a deliberate effort to be a better friend a better parent a

01:09:27.720 | better husband uh and because of all the gains I got from that and the joy that I got from it

01:09:32.940 | and and I just thought a little bit God I do like those conversations I do like writing the

01:09:37.320 | book do like throwing the events I'm just going to do things I enjoy which took me 30 years in my

01:09:42.540 | career to actually assess what is it that I like and maybe I should enjoy the journey a little bit

01:09:46.920 | more so I think it's a great question I appreciate it let's take one more thank you enjoy the journey

01:09:53.100 | hi besties my name is Aria I was the third or fourth employee at DoorDash and my question is

01:10:01.380 | regarding oh sorry my favorite bestie yeah that was a joke by the way my favorite besties Chamath and Saks

01:10:07.020 | although it's honestly Sophie's choice um my questions regarding the positive impact that

01:10:12.960 | Silicon Valley could have on the political discourse and politics which I know you know

01:10:18.840 | there's typically an aversion to in tech um you know you all have done a fantastic job outlining

01:10:24.480 | what those problems are as well as your guests what I'm wondering is what a viable path forward

01:10:28.980 | looks like you know Chamath you mentioned that people in DC pay close attention to the podcast

01:10:33.120 | Saks has recently endorsed Michael Schellenberger which I really hope can

01:10:36.720 | save our home state and I'm wondering is is the solution something akin to a third party like what

01:10:43.200 | Andrew Yang is trying to do or some new I don't know Silicon Valley techno party or you know is

01:10:48.660 | there is you know what does that look like I'm curious well I don't think it's set up to actually

01:10:53.160 | have a third party structurally in America so what you have to do practically speaking is field more

01:10:58.740 | centrist normal people on both sides whether they're Republicans or Democrats that's a

01:11:03.540 | practical thing that we can all do and then we can all show up and vote for those

01:11:06.420 | people so that the the majority voice is much clearer than it is today because right now the

01:11:11.880 | fringes a little bit get to hijack the process and so we take things that are that should be

01:11:17.220 | common sense and we pervert them in a way that just makes no progress possible

01:11:21.600 | um I really do think that we have that impact uh I'm not sure how much can be of that can be

01:11:29.940 | quantified but when I spend time in DC I think it's true what I was told and what I've heard from

01:11:36.120 | people it's basically required listening or viewing it helps shapes people's opinions it

01:11:41.100 | doesn't mean they follow it but I think it helps people think about things in a more normal way

01:11:45.060 | I think what happened today is like a perfect example like the way that Glenn Greenwald and

01:11:49.740 | Antonio Garcia Martinez debate like that's probably for some of you was really unsettling

01:11:55.380 | maybe raise your hand if you were just like you felt awkward honestly just be honest with you okay

01:12:00.300 | well you shouldn't because that's normal my point is it helps you make it seem more normal because

01:12:05.340 | those guys were not saying to each other that you're worthless and you're not they were just

01:12:08.820 | debating by the way we went out for a beer after that yeah this is my point so the three of us I

01:12:13.440 | was like okay we need to like go out and get a drink and cool down so I'm not chastising you for

01:12:18.660 | feeling that way I'm just saying this is what the culture does to folks it makes you even afraid to

01:12:22.860 | hear people debate things and still have respect for each other the way that he and Palmer kind of

01:12:28.740 | dealt with that wasn't that's incredible the courage that Palmer had to say what he did and

01:12:33.660 | then for him to be the first guy to walk out

01:12:35.040 | and then to own that that's a I think those are really important moments and you have

01:12:40.200 | you you have 700 more people capable of being that way because of what just happened so yeah I think

01:12:52.200 | it's a slow March but I think we're we're doing we're right we're riding a small dent in a small

01:12:56.880 | way 20 years ago every political show on TV was a debate format like going all the way back to

01:13:03.480 | Willie Buckley versus Gore Vidal or Pat Buchanan versus Michael Kinsey on Crossfire I mean they

01:13:09.480 | were all debates now like none of them are debates it's all just their own little echo chambers I

01:13:14.640 | think it's one of the reasons why this pod is successful is we actually can have debates and

01:13:19.680 | there is a divergence of views what do you think Antonio is there is there some you ever listen to

01:13:25.560 | this pod um I I was on one once dancing in the background oh that's right yes thank you dancing

01:13:30.780 | up here yeah he did dance behind him I recorded an episode from his house yeah um well I mean you

01:13:35.880 | look at politics any interest there any any any um you know behind the scenes work you've done

01:13:41.760 | and how do you think about it just as we get into as Gen Xers boomers are going away I mean we're

01:13:48.120 | going to kind of inherit this whether we like it or not yes I would say a couple things first

01:13:52.500 | um whenever you have times you look historically I think it's important contextualize this when

01:13:57.120 | you have moments of of large technological change you always have political struggles

01:14:00.480 | political disruption because the means of communication have changed this the Gutenberg

01:14:05.400 | press the tall ship and you just go back and look it always leads to a lot of disruption and often

01:14:09.960 | to war and so the question of are those of us who are technologists at the top of the system

01:14:14.760 | do have a responsibility to steward this technology responsibly we absolutely do

01:14:18.900 | I believe we do and I think that has been forgotten that's number one number two I have been involved

01:14:25.020 | in campaigns um and it's interesting right now what I'm doing is supporting any centrist candidate

01:14:30.180 | that I think is good on either side of the aisle I'm a registered Democrat I support Democrats for

01:14:34.920 | most of my life but the reality is now all I care about is sensible people that I think are really

01:14:39.420 | good and I'm engaging in micro targeting efforts across the spectrum in in primary races I would

01:14:45.840 | encourage all of you and anyone up here who cares about the American book system to engage in the

01:14:50.160 | primaries because the primaries are what determines the quality of the candidates that actually are

01:14:55.140 | up for election and they're actually decided by very few people yeah like how many of us

01:14:59.880 | actually voted in the primary like very few of you very few of you okay so rather than us just

01:15:07.260 | complain about the divisiveness of American politics next time please go vote in a primary

01:15:12.540 | and go vote for the center's candidate

01:15:14.520 | but by the way did I hear a lot of support for Michael schellenberger out there

01:15:21.900 | let's have him on the pod maybe yeah hi favorite bus is chamath I I heard you speak

01:15:29.580 | with Vinod Khosla at Hackton North at the University of Waterloo so my question is

01:15:35.220 | Amar talked about these like startup journey systems like Stanford or PayPal do you see like

01:15:41.760 | over the pandemic do you see any like remote or distributed systems that have like appeared or

01:15:47.880 | do you see any like building that are not just centered in one geographical location really

01:15:52.920 | honest I'm not a huge believer in this whole decentralized work movement I don't think any

01:15:57.060 | high quality work can get done um

01:15:59.280 | on on on difficult problems so I think that there are types of products and types of problems that

01:16:08.820 | can be solved in a remote way certain forms of software for certain kinds of products but

01:16:15.540 | for example let's just say you're trying to engineer you know a a pharma drug

01:16:21.540 | I don't believe that unless you're sitting there collaborating talking debating you can do that

01:16:27.780 | necessarily over a

01:16:28.980 | over a zoom if you're trying to build something physical you know we have a business that 3D

01:16:33.480 | Prince rockets those guys can't do that by just you know zooming around and having a couple calls

01:16:38.820 | that doesn't happen so I I think it's too premature to kind of say working together has no value I

01:16:47.820 | also think there's a huge cultural divide that will get created in America between these companies

01:16:52.920 | that come together and the companies that don't and I think that the ones that come together have a chance of

01:16:58.680 | having more empathy in the end because there are moments where you can actually get to know the people

01:17:03.540 | you're working with every day and I think that that gives you margin for error because everybody

01:17:07.980 | sometimes is a little you know dealing with their own things in their lives sometimes can be a little

01:17:12.600 | rude and we all have tolerances those tolerances are higher when you spend time with people and

01:17:17.940 | they're much much lower when you're just in a zoom so I'm you know I I'd love to believe that

01:17:23.880 | everybody's gonna be Airbnb-ing in a castle and a tent in a tree house

01:17:28.380 | but I'm just not sure that that's realistic to really solve the big problems that America has

01:17:33.600 | you believe in the work from home Antonio or you have a strong feeling one way or the other

01:17:37.680 | um I I'm more on Chivas Camp than not but I will say we have some great companies are fully remote

01:17:43.440 | um we've become a coalition example in cyber security it's fully remote run by wonderful CEOs

01:17:48.600 | under the age of 35 and he's found a way to make it work and I've learned a lot from him and so I'm

01:17:53.760 | trying to be very open algorithm about this and I think there are people who make it work who can't work

01:17:58.080 | I can't make it work I want my people in the office we invest in Pharma we invest in biotech

01:18:03.360 | and we have some biotech companies that have made it work remotely and some that insist on bringing

01:18:07.680 | back people back if you're in a lab obviously you have feedback but it I think there'll be a mixed

01:18:11.640 | environment and I also think there's an interesting retooling going on in productivity I think the

01:18:15.180 | productivity numbers in American that we're seeing today are wrong because they're not capturing

01:18:18.840 | what's happening underneath the technology because these remote environments so I don't know yet I

01:18:23.460 | think it's gonna depend on the CEO and how good people are and the type of industry you're in yeah

01:18:28.140 | I'm keeping an open mind towards it I know that for investing it was so much more efficient you

01:18:33.600 | know people could do 20 minute zooms instead of two hour meetings but I mean think of the problem

01:18:37.500 | that that created look at the overhang when you could raise tens of billions of dollars over Zoom

01:18:42.300 | that turned out to not be a good thing well and but also if you're a capital allocator being able

01:18:47.760 | to meet with three times as many people you could find more companies my point so I talked to a friend

01:18:53.160 | who raised billions of dollars over the last couple year cycle and he said I was able to raise

01:18:58.320 | 50 million dollar checks in 30 minute meetings now spending five hours for a 10 million dollar check

01:19:03.480 | and my reaction to him in the back of my mind was that's probably how it should be

01:19:07.980 | well part of that's the quarter that makes the entire system a little bit healthier yeah I mean

01:19:12.480 | we we raised 1.7 of our fund during covet and it was all done doing Zoom raising new fun now and

01:19:17.280 | I'm flying around the world taking meetings but part of that just because people are coming back

01:19:19.980 | the opposite and liquidity cycle has gotten is reversed on us now right so

01:19:22.860 | the denominator has gotten it's got a hard to get capital but for sure I think I agree with

01:19:27.060 | you Matthew you're like being able to allocate 10 million dollars in a venture fund in two years

01:19:31.020 | over Zoom and and think that's on just the metrics and not see people I think that's a bad idea yeah

01:19:36.900 | I'm talking about 250k 500. yeah that's probably okay might be okay take another question here my

01:19:41.580 | name is Kenneth Brown III and my favorite bestie is J Cal the charisma is legendary

01:19:45.720 | um he's my favorite bestie too by the way don't be offended

01:19:52.560 | my question is what advice would you give to non-technical people trying to fit into the

01:19:57.060 | tech oriented startup Venture World I'm an econ major but this just seems exciting like how do I

01:20:03.180 | become a part of it and Tony have thoughts and I I think that the um the best way to do this is to

01:20:11.280 | find a company you think is great and get a job that's a reality I mean I would just I would

01:20:15.900 | associate myself with the business that I really respect you'll respect and if the job is in the

01:20:19.260 | classroom the Bob is the job as a janitor whatever just figure it out because what happens to high

01:20:24.060 | growth companies is they need good people and you'll be surprised how much being the first

01:20:27.960 | person in and the last person to leave if there's an office and doing the work that he will ask you

01:20:32.400 | do with a smile and a great attitude like those people they move up fast so I would just find a

01:20:37.260 | way in man wherever it is however it is make it happen and start moving up I can't by the way

01:20:42.900 | you're you're not you're not non-technical you're not yet technical and I think that's the

01:20:48.960 | opportunity that sits in front of everyone that you can become technical I had a my fam a cousin

01:20:55.380 | who was a music major UCLA worked in music and then he came back from covid and he started learning how

01:21:02.040 | to program online taught himself spent six months in his parents basement teaching himself how to

01:21:07.920 | retool his life and got some contract jobs on Reddit and boards and other stuff and he got this

01:21:13.680 | amazing full-time job offer a few weeks ago and it was really amazing that I got to watch him

01:21:17.520 | transform himself in his life

01:21:18.660 | over the last year and a half just by taking that on himself and he became technical it wasn't that

01:21:23.880 | he had a non-technical degree it said he just wasn't yet technical and I think everyone has

01:21:28.080 | that opportunity I'll tell you I'll tell you a great quick story he's a minority guy grew up in

01:21:33.960 | Houston um really wanted to work at Tesla couldn't get a job couldn't get a job couldn't get a job

01:21:38.940 | finally got a job on the line he was making 16 20 bucks an hour worked there did well transferred

01:21:46.800 | worked there did well transferred

01:21:48.360 | effort ends up in the supply chain group ends up working in battery supply chain ends up basically

01:21:53.940 | being two layers between him and Elon gets into an MBA goes there for a few years uh works on the

01:22:02.400 | side uh and he ended up raising a bunch of money to start a battery business recently and this is

01:22:08.760 | an example of what he just said which is you know there are these jobs available and then it's just

01:22:14.880 | you know is your chutzpah and your hustle and he's an example

01:22:18.060 | but it's a very motivating example to me because it just shows it's so possible you know and these

01:22:22.860 | there are phenomenal organizations that identify talent and will move you up really quickly and

01:22:27.540 | knowledge is literally free and experience is up to you yeah the the overriding I think advice

01:22:34.680 | you're getting here is that skills are acquirable and my Lord getting to 50 60 proficiency on a skill

01:22:41.280 | just given what's on YouTube or MIT open course where any number of websites you can do it in a

01:22:47.760 | couple of weeks and now of course going from 60 70 70 to 80 that might take months and then

01:22:53.220 | eventually years but startups are looking for generalists they're looking for people who can

01:22:57.840 | say I I need somebody who's going to do the accounting and figure out how to do an email

01:23:02.580 | merge and build a mailing list and then I need somebody to help with recruiting if you can just

01:23:06.840 | become 30 40 50 percent as you know good at each of those things at a startup you know before people

01:23:13.140 | get specialized eventually you'll have 10 people doing recruiting but in the beginning it's one

01:23:17.460 | third of somebody's job so I love startups for the sign of a great culture of a company is how

01:23:23.280 | little the obvious labels matter once you're inside of it and the best companies like a

01:23:31.320 | Tesla can become a trillion dollar market cap because they find the kid working on the line

01:23:35.760 | and then four years later is running the battery supply chain how does that happen it happens

01:23:42.600 | because you're looking at the quality of the individual and their potential where they went to

01:23:47.160 | school doesn't matter their gender doesn't matter their ethnicity doesn't matter none of it matters

01:23:51.480 | because the people don't see it they see work ethic they see results yeah they see effort they

01:23:58.140 | see integrity so that's another litmus test for you is like in the companies even if you're a CEO

01:24:03.180 | and if you're building if every other day you're reminding everybody else of like where people need

01:24:07.560 | to have gone to school and where they should have been that's a road to nowhere let's give Antonio

01:24:13.140 | a big round of applause very nice okay thank you thank you so much

01:24:16.860 | thank you very much I appreciate it thank you

01:24:23.220 | next question thank you guys over here yeah um Sunny we kept it Tony here for like two hours

01:24:33.000 | I know I feel bad he's like I've never been on a show before meeting he's like

01:24:37.080 | all right we're gonna just take 14 to 20 more questions go Sunny Lama here um Chamath's my

01:24:46.560 | favorite bestie yeah there you go huh because of him I hope you there a little dry spell huh because

01:24:53.700 | of him I shop at Laura Piana only so thank you so I just got a question um for Friedberg I know that

01:25:00.900 | you wanted to talk about this yesterday about this sort of uh consumer credit crisis on the

01:25:05.400 | Horizon that you see as potentially like the next shoe to drop so um I think you wanted to mention

01:25:10.380 | something yesterday about it but because of time and stuff I don't have anything more to add than

01:25:15.540 | what I said on the pot I'm not like I'm not gonna be able to answer that question but I'm gonna be

01:25:16.260 | able to answer that question but I'm not like I don't think this is like a high certainty I'm just

01:25:20.700 | concerned there's a lot of loans out there a lot of buy now pay later a lot of stuff that has

01:25:24.720 | floating rates attached to it if we're gonna have a recession we're gonna see job loss you're gonna

01:25:29.400 | see these um and by the way these auto loan portfolios have like crazy outperformed over

01:25:34.140 | the last few years and now that these and a lot of those auto loans are floating rate

01:25:38.280 | um those asset values are inflated people are losing jobs you could see a bunch of these

01:25:43.260 | things start to create a bit of a cascading effect over the next couple of quarters

01:25:45.960 | depending on how this all goes um so I I'm not I'm not going to put my foot down on the ground

01:25:50.940 | and say oh my God consumer credit bubble we're totally it's going to lead to the great

01:25:55.020 | next great recession um but I do think it's going to be pretty kind of surprising buy now pay later

01:26:01.320 | I saw stat I don't know if you guys saw this this week on how a lot of the people that are going on

01:26:05.760 | buy now pay later sites are actually maxed out on their credit cards and so they're actually fully

01:26:10.740 | credited out and then all the smart algorithms are like oh yeah you're a good credit risk like here's

01:26:15.660 | $1,800 lightning round five questions and we're done one bestie will answer its question go cool

01:26:22.560 | uh Dave free burger my favorite bestie uh what problem do you most want to solve right now

01:26:27.180 | oh binary lifters actually uh edible quinoa

01:26:32.520 | actually I've been working on the so look I I've spoken about this publicly I think it's

01:26:40.560 | a big problem I was going to talk about it in the talk that we scrapped but I'll do it another time

01:26:45.360 | um which is really the opportunity for biomanufacturing as a way to replace a lot of

01:26:50.520 | traditional food systems including all of AG all of animal agriculture and a lot of the systems that

01:26:56.760 | we use to basically make our food um it's a it's a big infrastructure play you know a couple square

01:27:02.100 | miles you know using Elon's analogy you could basically recreate all the food on Earth you

01:27:06.960 | could distribute those systems um and and so I I think that it can be extremely carbon negative it

01:27:13.380 | sucks carbon out of the atmosphere

01:27:14.700 | um it would create incredible jobs it's an incredible infrastructure opportunity it would

01:27:19.500 | return billions of acres of land back to kind of you know whatever form natural form we want them

01:27:24.000 | to be so that's an area that I'm spending a lot of time in and that I'm particularly

01:27:28.560 | uh excited about awesome thank you okay number two hi there I'm Katie Croft nice to meet you all

01:27:34.200 | imagine a parallel timeline where I say you're all my favorite because it's all true so I'm curious

01:27:39.540 | kind of an extension of the media question have you given much thought to forming a consortium

01:27:44.400 | community um with the all-in podcast and kind of what further applications of that because if you

01:27:51.000 | think about the force multiplicity of like any number of these minds in the same room working

01:27:55.440 | towards the problems we've talked about from education to on-shoring energy it could probably

01:28:01.500 | be pretty considerable the impact there because we have such respect for what you guys do and how

01:28:05.220 | you're doing it and the discourse you're having that you know we're clearly all diehards here so

01:28:09.300 | I'm just curious if you thought about it I'm kind of trying to inception you here you want to take

01:28:12.660 | a look at it yeah I think so I mean this is a ton of work um but I think it is and we all

01:28:19.200 | have day jobs um you know step one was to try to just see and I told I told the best is let's just

01:28:23.760 | see if we can each make uh um getting to the pot each week a priority and a habit and and that took

01:28:31.080 | the first year or so so now it is a habit we all value doing this it has had tremendous impact on

01:28:36.660 | our lives personally professionally it's been very inspiring for each of us so we had to lock into that

01:28:42.360 | first doing this you know uh was a ton of work and we'll see if it's sustainable and we have some

01:28:47.700 | other ideas we wanted to do a college tour was the other thing we were considering which would

01:28:51.660 | be like 3 000 seats or 4 000 seats and just an episode of the pot in Q a so I think that could

01:28:56.700 | be the next card to fall um and then maybe hiring Tim Urban and uh Nate Silver and then having them

01:29:02.160 | build a media company to take on CNN um but you know we haven't really given it much thought but

01:29:06.180 | you never know they were here totally randomly they were here totally we're not recruiting or

01:29:10.440 | anything but um you know anything's possible

01:29:12.300 | hi besties again I'm rejoice I run a talent Marketplace for early entry workers we use

01:29:18.360 | gamification to accelerate remember just yes I just the question is about the great resignation

01:29:24.600 | which we believe is a half-told narrative so how can small businesses which are most

01:29:29.640 | sole proprietors democratize their own labor supply and demand

01:29:33.600 | wow um I think that's a very difficult problem to solve

01:29:42.000 | um I think again if as a supporter of capitalism I think one of the biggest things that we don't

01:29:49.920 | get right is how money gets to the right problems I've said this roughly before but like money is

01:29:58.500 | really just a voting way of deciding what you think is important in the world and that's why

01:30:04.560 | the accumulation of money as just a practical matter forget moral or physical philosophical

01:30:09.600 | is so important because you can vote what you want the thing is that aggregation happens easily

01:30:16.860 | distribution is terribly broken and so the ability for folks to solve practical problems is very hard

01:30:23.460 | because the ROI isn't obvious and getting money from capital pools like us to individuals and sole

01:30:29.220 | proprietors is a basic I think it is a very broken problem a because the system zone exists B because

01:30:35.820 | the laws don't allow it and until that gets solved it's not going to be a problem it's going to be a problem

01:30:37.440 | because the system zone exists B because the laws don't allow it and until that gets solved it's not going to be a problem

01:30:37.440 | and until that gets solved I'm not exactly sure how a business who can actually like build for

01:30:43.980 | the future well or solve their supply forecast or demand forecast can actually get the capital you

01:30:49.140 | need because the lubricant that allows you to solve that problem is money has always been will

01:30:54.480 | always be but getting it to those people is legally hard and it's organizationally impractical

01:31:01.020 | um I don't know if you saw the last spot I mentioned this thing we tried this thing called

01:31:05.580 | capital as a service it doesn't

01:31:07.380 | get to the sole proprietor level but it gets to like small five to ten percent companies

01:31:11.340 | we would send fifty hundred thousand dollar checks here's how hard it is the cost of getting a fifty

01:31:17.460 | thousand dollar check we did this uh fishery in Indonesia it cost us a hundred and twenty five

01:31:23.760 | thousand to give them fifty thousand we still did it because I just wanted to prove the point they

01:31:28.800 | ended up tripling our money so we barely kind of like broke even um but it just goes to show you

01:31:34.080 | how really complicated in the system okay fourth question and then one more question

01:31:36.960 | and then one more after that hey I'm Prem as a Waterloo poker player favorite besties Chamath

01:31:42.780 | uh I'm very in into next-gen manufacturing but as a pre-seed investor my concern is follow-on financing

01:31:50.100 | how do we get more investors interested in investing in the physical world because at

01:31:55.920 | least in Canada it seems like most investors only want to invest in software no I think I think this

01:32:00.480 | is what I'm saying I think there's a very broken part of the capitalism right now which is that

01:32:05.400 | technology investors by and large and I don't mean to disparage anyone here are not well rooted in

01:32:11.340 | the principles of math and Finance and I think that that's a real problem because in a moment

01:32:17.400 | like this that is where you can actually make safe investments of capital you can structure the money

01:32:23.400 | in so that you are capital protected you have assets to back these things and the reason why

01:32:28.440 | folks don't do it is they don't understand how to put together a model to demonstrate it and then

01:32:33.660 | the person that is then receiving that

01:32:35.380 | information is unfortunately not as well instructed as they should be to understand how to make a

01:32:40.840 | decision from that that's what we have today so it's a it's a little bit of a miseducation problem

01:32:44.920 | and it's going to affect the non-sexy areas rockets will always get money but like 3D manufacturing

01:32:52.660 | at sale at scale may not because of this exact issue because people don't know what roik means

01:32:57.520 | sir you have the final question favorite bestie is uh Friedberg and hate in on a recession question

01:33:03.760 | fucking Christ oh but never asking that question again why do you guys why let me ask why do you guys

01:33:09.580 | think it upsets you so much like well because you're the biggest pain in the ass you are the

01:33:14.320 | most fucking neurotic person every time we post an episode we should cancel the episode we fucked

01:33:19.360 | everything up again why do we keep screwing up we're gonna destroy the I read this first comments

01:33:25.180 | and the down vote rate I was on YouTube somebody sent the the volume keep going but go ahead the

01:33:30.940 | amount of noise we deal with from this one they're not gonna stop it's like literally he does not

01:33:36.580 | reward him it's like his inner monologue is crazy you know if you had a two-year-old child who you've

01:33:43.480 | given too much candy to is okay can you shut him up please yeah unbelievable this is right

01:33:48.700 | it's Phil Deutsch everyone yeah yeah all right so it seems like a common theme on the stage these

01:33:56.320 | last couple days is you all feel like we're in a recession or heading towards a recession but I get

01:34:00.160 | the feeling that you have the confidence that this is gonna be a quick recession like a year so my

01:34:04.300 | question would be why do you feel after 13 years of Market manipulation by the Fed that is going

01:34:09.400 | to be cured in under a year no I think you're right the average recession has measured like

01:34:14.140 | if you look back historically is two quarters um the problem is that we've never really figured out

01:34:21.580 | what it's going to take with the distortion of money that never should have been in the system

01:34:27.220 | because if you think of a supply demand imbalance as

01:34:30.100 | being a naturally self-balancing phenomenon if you perturb one side of it by an enormous amount

01:34:36.040 | exactly to your point I think the open question that the world has right now is is that really a

01:34:42.220 | two-quarter problem well the Fed has told you that they're going to take three years to get

01:34:47.620 | three trillion you've heard from David that 10 trillion was put in probably another three or

01:34:52.780 | four trillion was productively used but that still leaves another three trillion of sloshing around

01:34:58.480 | in money that we don't know so I think it's an open question I don't know what you guys think

01:35:02.560 | how many months how many quarters sacks how many quarters if you had to guess again I just hate

01:35:07.720 | this definition of recession where it's about GDP decline when we had a lot of the underlyings in

01:35:12.820 | those numbers for GDP that I feel were like artificially inflated for a couple of quarters

01:35:16.660 | because of a bunch of the structural stuff we've talked about so I don't know like if you look

01:35:21.040 | deeper at economic growth companies signing up more customers so like a lot of technology

01:35:25.660 | companies are about increasing productivity with their tools with their products and so I think

01:35:28.300 | that's what they're with what they're selling and um those businesses are are going to continue to

01:35:33.160 | to do well and to grow and to increase customers increase revenue um and I don't think that there

01:35:39.820 | is necessarily a lot of the structural stuff that we saw with the GFC the one thing I am concerned

01:35:44.440 | about which I've highlighted is this consumer credit risk and besides that it seems like you

01:35:50.380 | know things are um you know on good footing so I don't know like the the technical recession

01:35:55.720 | definition probably a couple quarters yeah

01:35:58.120 | um I I you never know and I I think the best way to to look at the future is by doing scenario

01:36:05.140 | planning so we basically we could say this could be a you know short medium or long recession short

01:36:12.760 | would be six months medium might be 18 months and you know long might be two years plus and we just

01:36:19.120 | say I don't know say one third one third one third probability and that kind of gives you some picture

01:36:26.140 | exactly

01:36:28.060 | um so now what we're telling our portfolio companies is you want to have two and a half

01:36:31.660 | years of runway right now because you got to go raise six months before you run out of cash and

01:36:35.680 | you really want to have two years of cushion because things could be choppy for two years

01:36:41.020 | I'm not saying they're gonna be but they could be you don't want your company to run out of money

01:36:46.780 | and die just because of macroeconomic conditions that are no fault of your own so if you can try

01:36:51.580 | to engineer that amount of runway that's better I also think that here's the thing about a quick

01:36:57.460 | recession is or the prospect for one we don't know what other shoes are going to drop consumer

01:37:02.920 | credit is still a shoe that we don't know if it's going to drop look six months ago did we think we

01:37:07.960 | be talking about Tiger Global or softbank for that matter potentially teetering on the verge of being

01:37:14.560 | white town yeah redempted out of or coinbase and peloton just so things are right things can change

01:37:21.760 | fast we don't know what systemic risk is in the system that hasn't been flushed out yet

01:37:26.440 | and I we won't be out of this until it feels like everything's been flushed out and then the

01:37:31.780 | market's back and things are sort of an upward trajectory again clearly we're not there or real

01:37:36.280 | estate crypto it doesn't feel like that's rushed out yet either so do we have a clip to play as an

01:37:41.020 | outro I don't know is this uh was this the clip of the the cut clip before before we go can we

01:37:46.420 | please say thanks to the yeah we're gonna have that works here yeah and the team Jason your team

01:37:50.560 | at all incredible thanks to everybody all of you guys have worked so hard and they really put a lot

01:37:55.480 | of effort into this pretty incredible I guess this is a lost clip of us uh from last week

01:38:02.020 | you did not have like uh Dungeons and Dragons sleepovers in grade seven and grade eight I was

01:38:08.560 | actually programming Pascal and we made a water moisturizer and it was a binary lifter much like

01:38:14.020 | the ones you have on Tatooine a complete replica of Uncle Owen's water vaporizers on Tatooine and

01:38:21.520 | that took six years but it was great and then I went

01:38:25.360 | hilariously as c-3po I went to see three P.O to our science fair you should have seen the look on

01:38:35.800 | our teachers faces okay you guys have your cold open let's go let your winners ride

01:38:43.240 | brain man David

01:38:45.760 | and it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy

01:38:52.480 | Queen of Kinwa

01:38:55.240 | foreign

01:38:56.800 | Thanks for watching!

01:38:58.800 | Thank you.

01:38:59.720 | Thanks for watching.

#AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias

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