John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs

00:00:00.000 | One of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world

00:00:03.920 | He is known as one of the world's leading experts on economic development

00:00:08.780 | One of the most famous political scientists in history

00:00:15.800 | We're talking about moral and political principles here

00:00:22.800 | I would suggest that all four wars could be ended quickly great power politics is now back on the table

00:00:29.460 | If we are anything as a world community, we have to implement what we've said

00:00:34.460 | I'm excited for this panel. We're going to talk about foreign policy

00:00:47.680 | We have I think two of the most interesting imminent renowned thinkers about foreign policy

00:00:54.800 | Professor John Mearsheimer from University Chicago and professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia. So great to have you guys here today

00:01:01.380 | It's

00:01:05.900 | It's a it's a big world and there's a lot of things happening

00:01:08.900 | So let's just jump into it the big news over the past week was that Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris for president

00:01:15.900 | I think for people who see the world in

00:01:18.780 | Partisan political terms this might have been surprising, but I don't think that you guys were that surprised by that

00:01:24.380 | Do you see an underlying logic to this Jeff? Why don't I start with you? I

00:01:28.760 | Think it's obvious. There's basically one deep state party and that is the party of Cheney

00:01:37.080 | Harris Biden

00:01:39.840 | Victoria Nuland my colleague at Columbia University now

00:01:43.880 | And Newland is kind of the face of all of this because she has been in every administration for the last 30 years

00:01:51.580 | She was in the Clinton administration

00:01:54.260 | Wrecking our policies towards Russia in the 1990s. She was in the Bush administration

00:02:01.300 | junior

00:02:03.220 | with Cheney

00:02:05.100 | Wrecking our policies towards NATO enlargement

00:02:08.220 | she was in then the Obama administration as

00:02:13.340 | Hillary's

00:02:14.680 | Spokesperson first and then making a coup in Ukraine in February 2014. Not a great move

00:02:21.260 | Started a war then she was Biden's

00:02:24.400 | Undersecretary of State now

00:02:28.540 | That's both parties

00:02:30.700 | it's a colossal mess and

00:02:33.480 | She's been Cheney's

00:02:36.420 | Advisor she's been Biden's advisor. She she

00:02:39.740 | and

00:02:42.380 | Makes perfect sense. This is the reality

00:02:45.100 | We're trying to find out if there's another party. That's the big question

00:02:48.860 | John what's what's your thought on that? Do you see any difference between?

00:02:52.220 | Republicans and Democrats. No, I like to refer to the Republicans and the Democrats is Tweedledee and Tweedledum

00:02:58.980 | It's hardly any difference I actually think the one exception is that

00:03:09.660 | former President Trump when he became president in

00:03:12.860 | 2017 was bent on beating back the deep state and becoming a different kind of leader on the foreign policy front

00:03:20.900 | But he basically failed and he is vowed that if he gets elected this time

00:03:26.460 | It will be different and he will beat back the deep state. He will pursue a foreign policy. That's fundamentally different

00:03:34.300 | than Republicans and Democrats have pursued up to now and the big question on the table is whether or not you think Trump can

00:03:41.540 | Beat the deep state and these two established parties and I'd bet against Trump

00:03:46.420 | John and Jeff, but let's start with John. Can you actually define for us for me?

00:03:52.340 | I don't understand when people say deep state what it is. I almost viewed the term comically

00:03:56.740 | we have one of our friends in our group chat who he called deep state who's

00:04:00.980 | Deep deep state. He's really in the deep state, but we say it as a joke

00:04:05.340 | But for maybe the uninitiated, what does it actually mean? What are their incentives? Who are they?

00:04:11.340 | Jeff maybe on a starter John you want to start?

00:04:15.100 | Yeah, I'll say a few words about it when we talk about the deep state. We're talking really about the administrative state

00:04:21.100 | It's very important to understand that starting in the late 19th early 20th century

00:04:26.500 | given developments

00:04:29.260 | in the American economy

00:04:31.260 | it was

00:04:32.860 | imperative that we develop and this was true of all Western countries a very powerful central state that could run the country and

00:04:40.740 | over time that state has grown in power and

00:04:44.300 | Since World War two the United States as you all know has been involved in every nook and cranny of the world

00:04:50.980 | Fighting wars here there and everywhere and to do that. You need a very powerful

00:04:56.620 | Administrative state that can help manage that foreign policy

00:05:00.620 | But in the process what happens is you get all of these high level bureaucrats middle level and low level

00:05:06.600 | bureaucrats who become established in positions in the Pentagon the State Department the intelligence community you name it and

00:05:14.300 | they end up having a vested interest in pursuing a

00:05:19.380 | Particular foreign policy and the particular foreign policy that they like to pursue is the one that the Democrats and the Republicans

00:05:26.700 | Are pushing and that's why we talk about Tweedledee and Tweedledum with regard to the two parties you could throw in

00:05:34.060 | The deep state as being on the same page as those other two

00:05:38.260 | institutions

00:05:40.900 | there's a very interesting interview of Putin in Figaro in 2017 and he says

00:05:48.380 | I've dealt with three presidents now

00:05:50.420 | They come into office with some ideas even

00:05:53.680 | But then the men in the dark suits and the blue ties and then he says I wear red ties

00:06:00.980 | but they were blue ties they come in and explain the way the world really is and there go the ideas and

00:06:07.700 | I think that's Putin's experience. That's our experience. That's my experience

00:06:12.540 | Which is that there's a deeply entrained foreign policy. It has been in place in my interpretation for many decades

00:06:20.020 | But arguably a variant of it has been in place since 1992

00:06:24.900 | I got to watch some of it early on because I was an advisor to Gorbachev and I was an advisor to Yeltsin

00:06:31.380 | And so I saw early makings of this though. I didn't fully understand it except in retrospect

00:06:38.020 | But that policy has been mostly in place pretty consistently for 30 years

00:06:43.940 | And it didn't really matter whether it was Bush senior whether it was Clinton whether it was Bush jr

00:06:49.220 | Whether it was Obama whether it was Trump after all who did Trump hire? He hired John Bolton. Well the

00:06:55.460 | pretty deep state

00:06:58.380 | That was the end of they told you know, he explained this is the way it is

00:07:02.100 | And by the way Bolton explained also in his memoirs when when Trump didn't agree

00:07:06.900 | We figured out ways to trick him basically. So and what what are their incentives? Is it war? Is it self-enrichment?

00:07:12.900 | Is it power? Is it all three? Is it some car or is it? Yeah, is it is it just is there a

00:07:18.060 | Philosophical entrenchment or is it just this inertial issue that like once a policy begins? It's hard to

00:07:25.140 | Change and the system's just working with 10,000 people working towards it

00:07:29.540 | You know if I were lucky to sit next to the world's greatest political

00:07:35.660 | philosopher, which I am

00:07:37.660 | He'd give you a good answer, which is that the right answer which is if you want to interpret American foreign policy

00:07:44.740 | It is to maximize power

00:07:46.740 | and

00:07:48.260 | He gives a John gives a an explanation of that. We have

00:07:52.560 | Some differences, but I think it's a very good description of American

00:07:57.440 | Foreign policy, which is that it's trying to maximize

00:08:01.660 | Global power essentially to be global hegemon. I I think it could get us all killed

00:08:08.580 | This is because it's a little bit delusional in my mind, but not not the I

00:08:13.740 | Not not his interpretation of their idea, but the fact that they hold that idea is a little weird to me

00:08:19.700 | But in any event, that's the idea and every time a decision comes inside that I've seen

00:08:27.380 | I'm an economist so I don't see the security decisions the same way

00:08:31.280 | But every decision that I've seen always leans in the same direction for the last 30 years

00:08:37.020 | Which is power as the central objective

00:08:40.980 | So Clinton faced an internal

00:08:44.480 | cabinet

00:08:46.580 | Really debate should NATO be enlarged?

00:08:50.100 | This is a post-cold war phenomenon that it's well, I'll let John take that

00:08:55.900 | Two very quick points. First of all, I do believe that the people who are in favor of this foreign policy

00:09:03.060 | Do believe in it. It's not cynical. They really believe that we're doing the right method. Yeah

00:09:10.620 | Yeah

00:09:11.140 | The second point I would make to you and this sort of adds on to what Jeff said

00:09:15.020 | Jeff said power has a lot to do with this and is a good realist

00:09:18.820 | I of course believe that but it's also very important to understand that the United States is a

00:09:23.540 | Fundamentally liberal country and we believe that we have a right we have a responsibility

00:09:28.300 | And we have the power to run around the world and remake the world in America's image

00:09:35.140 | most people in the foreign policy establishment the Republican Party the Democratic Party

00:09:39.980 | They believe that and that is what has motivated

00:09:42.620 | Our foreign policy in large part since the Cold War ended because remember when the Cold War ends

00:09:49.940 | We have no rival great power left

00:09:52.620 | so what are we going to do with all this power that we have what we decide to do is go out and

00:09:58.420 | Remake the world in our own image. So that's a that's a values point of view though, right?

00:10:03.700 | That there are values that they hold dear that that many do hold dear that

00:10:08.140 | liberalism

00:10:10.420 | Democracy does ultimately I believe I've heard this reduce conflict worldwide that there's an importance that we've never seen to

00:10:17.980 | Democratic nations since World War two go to war and that there's a reason why we want to see

00:10:24.100 | liberalism kind of

00:10:26.740 | Breed throughout the world and it's our responsibility for world for global peace to make that a mandate

00:10:32.260 | Let me step in for one moment. Just okay, very quick. I'm and by the way, I'm I'm I'm

00:10:37.180 | What do you call it where you pull the spirits of the the voice of others?

00:10:41.380 | But I'm I'm just trying to channeling channeling. That's the word. I want to be very clear. I am

00:10:46.260 | Forever thankful that I was born in a liberal democracy and I love liberalism

00:10:50.560 | But the question here is do you think that we can run around the world?

00:10:55.580 | Imposing liberal democracy on other countries and in some cases shoving it down their throat

00:11:01.520 | Doing it at the end of a rifle barrel and my argument is that's almost impossible to do it almost always

00:11:08.420 | backfires think Iraq Afghanistan so forth and so on and

00:11:12.540 | Secondly you begin to erode liberalism in the United States because you build the deep state

00:11:18.680 | right and you want to understand that a lot of the complaints here about

00:11:22.380 | Cracking down on freedom of speech and so forth and so on are related to the fact that we have this ambitious foreign policy

00:11:30.040 | Those two things go together in very important ways. What an irony

00:11:33.780 | Let me let me disagree just a bit

00:11:36.940 | Because we agree actually on the behavior and I've learned I'd say most of that from you

00:11:43.260 | That it's power-seeking

00:11:45.740 | Truly John in my work 40 years

00:11:49.540 | Overseas, I don't think the US government gives a damn about these other places

00:11:54.660 | I don't think they really care if it's a liberal democracy if it's a dictatorship

00:11:59.020 | They want the right of ways they want the military bases

00:12:02.820 | They want the state to be in support of the United States. They want NATO enlargement

00:12:08.580 | I don't I know you've you've written and there are some who believe in state building

00:12:14.620 | God if they do they are so incompetent. It's unbelievable

00:12:19.660 | but

00:12:22.860 | Professor I'll give you an example if I put just one one example

00:12:28.380 | I'm a friend with one of the only PhD

00:12:32.860 | Afghani

00:12:35.020 | economist senior person in the US

00:12:37.020 | Academia over the last 30 years

00:12:40.540 | You would think that the State Department if they were interested in state building would ask him one day one moment

00:12:49.800 | Something about Afghanistan never happened never happened. Not even one question never happened. He asked me

00:12:56.900 | Can you get me a meeting with the State Department? They were completely uninterested

00:13:01.520 | This is this is about power

00:13:04.380 | You're too idealistic John

00:13:07.020 | They don't care about the other places they may feel we should be

00:13:14.100 | Whatever we want free and so forth, but freedom

00:13:17.740 | I've been I've seen my with my own eyes the coups the overthrows the president's

00:13:24.420 | Democratic president's led away. They don't care at all. This is Washington be a realist. Come on

00:13:31.200 | professor Mearsheimer, I

00:13:34.140 | When we talk about the power

00:13:36.820 | There are other people in the world who are trying to accumulate power

00:13:40.540 | We live in a multipolar world right now and they have in some cases very nefarious or bad intent

00:13:46.740 | And they do not have democracy. So it's one thing to you know, tell

00:13:51.780 | People in Afghanistan you need to evolve, you know to be a perfect democracy like the one we have here

00:13:57.740 | I think we all agree that's unrealistic and insane and not practical

00:14:02.280 | But what about the free countries of the world uniting together to stop dictators from invading other free countries?

00:14:09.460 | Is that noble is that a good use of power and a good framework for America to evolve to?

00:14:15.260 | No, I don't think so

00:14:17.780 | I think that what the United States should do is worry about its own national interest in some cases

00:14:24.660 | That's going to involve a line ourselves with a dictator if we're fighting World War two all over again. It's December 8th

00:14:32.620 | 1941 you surely would be in favor of a lying with a doubt not with Adolf Hitler with Joseph Stalin and the Soviet Union

00:14:40.540 | against

00:14:42.180 | Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany, sometimes you have to make those kind of compromises

00:14:46.900 | As I said before I love liberal democracy

00:14:49.380 | I have no problem a line with liberal democracy, but when you begin to think in the terms that you're thinking you end up

00:14:56.180 | With an impulse to do social engineering around the world and that gets you in all sorts of problems. Well, what I'm proposing is when

00:15:04.620 | Dictatorships invade other countries then we take action. It depends maybe defend them. So yeah, of course

00:15:11.860 | I mean when Russia invades Ukraine

00:15:16.140 | Basically, what you're saying is you want to go to war on behalf of Ukraine against Russia. Are you in favor of that?

00:15:23.180 | No, I would say diplomacy would obviously be what we want to exhaust

00:15:26.860 | But if they do roll into other free countries

00:15:29.580 | I think there's an argument for the free countries of the world to get together and say to dictators

00:15:33.380 | We're not going to allow this

00:15:35.380 | But I come in here

00:15:38.740 | Could I clarify a few things

00:15:45.780 | Look first of all

00:15:48.340 | Almost all the time that we intervene it's because

00:15:54.260 | We view this as a power situation for the u.s

00:15:59.260 | so whether it's Ukraine or

00:16:01.820 | Syria or Libya or other places even if we define it as

00:16:07.700 | Defending something believe me. It's not about defending something

00:16:12.660 | It's about a perception of u.s. Power and u.s. Interest and it's in

00:16:17.180 | objectives of u.s. Global hegemony and

00:16:21.460 | If we analyze the Ukraine

00:16:24.020 | Conflict just even a little bit below the surface. This is not a conflict about Putin invading Ukraine

00:16:31.820 | This is something a lot different that has to do with American power projection into the former Soviet Union

00:16:38.740 | So it's completely different

00:16:40.740 | second if we

00:16:42.740 | decide were

00:16:44.780 | The police which we do

00:16:46.780 | You can't imagine how

00:16:50.380 | Cynical bullshit we use to justify our actions

00:16:55.940 | We used the cynical bullshit that were defending the people of Benghazi

00:17:01.780 | To bomb the hell out of Libya to kill Muammar Qaddafi

00:17:06.660 | Why did we do that? Well, I'm kind of an expert on that region and I can tell you maybe because Sarkozy didn't like

00:17:14.340 | Qaddafi

00:17:15.180 | There's no much deeper reason except Hillary liked every bombing

00:17:19.780 | She could get her hands on and Obama was kind of convinced my Secretary of State says go with it

00:17:25.380 | So why don't we go with the NATO expedition? It had nothing to do with Libya it on it unleashed

00:17:31.860 | 15 years of chaos cheated the UN Security Council because like everything else we've done it was on false

00:17:38.620 | Pretenses we did the same with trying to overthrow Syria. We did the same with

00:17:43.740 | Conspiring to overthrow Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine in February 2014

00:17:49.880 | So the problem with this argument is we're not nice guys. We're not trying to save the world. We're not trying to make democracies

00:17:58.940 | We had a committee by the way of all the luminaries you could mention, but they're the neocon crazies

00:18:06.060 | But they're luminaries the committee for the people of Chechnya

00:18:09.660 | Are you kidding?

00:18:12.500 | Do you think they even knew where Chechnya is or cared about Chechnya?

00:18:16.740 | But it was an opportunity to get at Russia to weaken Russia to support a jihadist movement inside Russia to do

00:18:23.980 | This is a game

00:18:25.540 | But it's the game that John has described better than anyone in the world. It's a game of power

00:18:31.140 | It's not that we're defending real things if you want to defend real things

00:18:35.480 | Go to the UN Security Council and convince others because the other countries are not crazy

00:18:41.020 | And they don't want mayhem in the world, but we play games

00:18:45.180 | So they say that's a game Iraq, which was obviously a game before we went in it was a

00:18:51.580 | Obviously Colin Powell could not move his lips without lying that day

00:18:55.180 | Obviously and so they said no

00:18:58.380 | But if we're real about our interests, then you go to the UN Security Council and then it's not just on us

00:19:04.400 | It's actually then a collective security issue

00:19:07.260 | Professor Mishra if we were to take Jeffrey's position here that we are exerting power for the sake of you know

00:19:15.020 | Our reputation and in fact to weaken dictatorships if I'm if I'm summarizing correctly here

00:19:20.980 | Is that not a good strategy to weaken dictators around the world who might like to invade other countries?

00:19:26.940 | Is there is there a framing in which you could see that being?

00:19:30.500 | for

00:19:32.580 | You know a world where democracy and people living freely has gone down in our lifetimes

00:19:38.380 | Is that not noble is there not a justification somebody can make for I'm not saying I have that but I'm just trying to steal

00:19:44.460 | me on the other side of this is

00:19:46.340 | Weakening dictators and despots a good strategy. It depends. Well, let's talk about the two that we have, you know

00:19:53.900 | Xi Jinping, I think you wanted to get to eventually and then Ukraine and Putin are these people worth

00:19:59.740 | Trying to you know contain or even weaken. Well in terms of China

00:20:06.100 | I'm fully in favor of containing China. Okay, so containment check. It's containment. I'm not interested in regime change

00:20:14.020 | I'm not interested in trying to turn China into a democracy not gonna happen. Yeah, not gonna happen

00:20:20.020 | We tried it actually and I thought it was foolish to even pursue a policy of engagement toward China with regard to Russia

00:20:27.020 | I don't think Russia is a serious threat to the United States

00:20:30.300 | And indeed, I think the United States should have good relations with Putin

00:20:34.940 | It's a remarkably foolish policy to push him into the arms of the Chinese

00:20:40.580 | There are three great powers in the system the United States China and Russia

00:20:44.900 | China is a peer competitor to the United States is the most serious threat to the United States

00:20:50.380 | Russia is the weakest of those three great powers and it's not a serious threat to us

00:20:55.060 | If you are playing balance of power politics and you're interested as the United States in containing China

00:21:01.720 | You want Russia on your side of the ledger?

00:21:04.700 | But what we have done in effect is we have pushed Russia into the arms of the Chinese

00:21:10.580 | This is a remarkably foolish policy and furthermore by getting bogged down in Ukraine and now bogged down in the Middle East

00:21:18.280 | It's become very difficult for us to pivot to Asia to deal with China, which is the principal threat that we face

00:21:32.460 | I think I think I could I just say two-thirds, right? Perfect

00:21:37.940 | I just wanted to add a footnote, which is that China is also not a threat

00:21:49.260 | It's just not a threat. I mean we're gonna get to it. China is a market. It's got great food great culture

00:21:59.020 | Wonderful people civilization ten times older than ours. It's not a threat. Well as an economist

00:22:04.380 | Can you talk about the impact of a cold or hot?

00:22:08.660 | Conflict with China from an economic perspective given the trade relationship. Yeah, I would wreck California for one thing

00:22:14.360 | It would destroy the economy that you guys are making completely

00:22:18.180 | This economy has been the biggest beneficiary of China's rise probably in the whole world

00:22:22.900 | So it's crazy

00:22:25.140 | maybe if you're worried if you're

00:22:27.140 | Really worried about whether a worker in Ohio has a particular job on a particular assembly line

00:22:34.100 | Then you can be anti China if you're worried about the tech industry about California about peace and the future

00:22:41.700 | You should be pro China. That's all so why does it become so universal to?

00:22:45.740 | Assume that we are already in a state of conflict with China on not just party lines, but like

00:22:52.180 | almost any spectrum you could kind of

00:22:54.780 | like

00:22:55.700 | consider

00:22:57.300 | Said it exactly right and he predicted it better than anyone in the whole world in

00:23:02.900 | 2001 he said when China becomes large

00:23:06.940 | We're going to have conflict because that's John's theory and it's right as a description of American foreign policy

00:23:13.820 | That we are for power. They are big. Therefore. They're an enemy. They're an enemy of our

00:23:19.900 | Inspiration to the city is trapped. Let's let John jump in here. Do you want you want me to say okay?

00:23:26.420 | If I talk about this, yeah. Yeah, I mean I think I think that

00:23:30.300 | What's interesting? I mean you and Jeff I think arrive at similar conclusions about Ukraine

00:23:36.980 | But different ones on China, right because Jeff is an economist and I think sees the world and fundamentally positive some ways based on

00:23:45.660 | the potential for trade

00:23:47.540 | Economics basically, whereas you see the world as more of a zero-sum game based on the balance of power

00:23:53.100 | Why don't you just explain that difference? Okay?

00:23:55.500 | It is very important to emphasize as David was saying that Jeff and I agree on all sorts of issues including Ukraine and Israel

00:24:03.180 | Palestine, but we disagree

00:24:05.580 | Fundamentally as he just made clear on China and let me explain to you why I think that's the case and then

00:24:10.500 | Jeff can tell you why he thinks I'm wrong

00:24:15.900 | It has to do with security whether you privilege security or survival or whether you privilege prosperity and

00:24:22.540 | Economists and I would imagine most of you in the audience really care greatly about maximizing prosperity

00:24:27.700 | For someone like me who's a realist what I care about is maximizing the state's prospects of survival

00:24:34.220 | And when you live in an anarchic system and in IR speak that means there's no higher authority

00:24:40.140 | There's no Night Watchman that could come down and rescue if you get into trouble and this is the international system

00:24:46.220 | There's no higher authority in that anarchic world

00:24:49.180 | The best way to survive is to be really powerful as we used to say when I was a kid on New York City

00:24:55.540 | Playgrounds you want to be the biggest and baddest dude on the block and that's simply because it's the best way to survive if you're

00:25:01.980 | Really powerful nobody fools around with you. The United States is a regional hegemon

00:25:08.100 | it's the only regional hegemon on the planet we dominate the Western Hemisphere and what China has

00:25:14.920 | Begun to do as it's got increasingly

00:25:18.260 | powerful

00:25:20.500 | Economically is translate that economic might into military might and it is trying to dominate

00:25:27.380 | Asia it wants to push us out beyond the first island chain

00:25:31.140 | It wants to push us out beyond the second island chain

00:25:33.900 | It wants to be like we are in the Western Hemisphere and I don't blame the Chinese one bit if I was the National Security

00:25:40.660 | Advisor in Beijing, that's what I'd be telling ZZ ping

00:25:44.620 | We should be trying to do but of course from an American point of view

00:25:48.820 | This is unacceptable and we do not tolerate peer competitors. We do not want

00:25:55.560 | Another regional hegemon on the planet in the 20th century

00:26:00.620 | There were four countries that threatened to become regional hegemons like us

00:26:05.160 | Imperial Germany

00:26:07.500 | Imperial Japan Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union the United States played a key role in putting all four of those

00:26:14.980 | Countries on the scrapheap of history. We want to remain the only regional hegemon in the world

00:26:21.180 | We are a ruthless great power

00:26:24.260 | never want to lose sight of that fact and the end result of this is you get an intense security competition between China and

00:26:32.160 | The United States and it revolves around the concept of security not prosperity

00:26:39.680 | I think this is what you just very quickly

00:26:41.740 | So what you see beginning to happen is that it's in all domains where the competition takes place

00:26:49.060 | Especially high-tech. We do not want them defeating this

00:26:54.060 | Defeating us in the high-tech war. We are competing with them economically

00:26:58.660 | We are competing with the militarily and this is because the best way to survive is for us the United States of America

00:27:05.900 | To be the only regional hegemon on the planet

00:27:09.560 | So Jeff let me let me set it up for Jeff here so

00:27:15.500 | Jeff I you and John I think agree that the the game on the board is

00:27:22.180 | Power-seeking. I think what John is saying is there are smart ways and dumb ways to pursue power

00:27:28.060 | The containing China is a smart way what we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb way

00:27:33.220 | Whereas it seems like you're saying that all power-seeking behavior is bad. That's not the game. We should be playing

00:27:39.100 | We should somehow opt out of that. Is that is that kind of where you're going?

00:27:42.500 | It's a it's not a bad way to say it, but I would I would put it in another way

00:27:47.780 | I read a very good book John's

00:27:51.860 | and

00:27:53.860 | And John

00:27:56.380 | Described

00:27:58.620 | I'm gonna quote him, but he can quote himself afterwards

00:28:01.740 | He said that the regional hegemons

00:28:05.740 | don't threaten each other actually why because we have big ocean in between I

00:28:11.980 | Deeply believe that China is not a threat to the United States and

00:28:20.340 | I deeply believe the only threat to the United States period in the world

00:28:26.360 | given the oceans given our size and given the military is

00:28:31.260 | nuclear war I

00:28:33.980 | Deeply believe we're close to nuclear war

00:28:37.200 | because

00:28:39.220 | we have a

00:28:41.140 | Mindset that leads us in that direction

00:28:44.580 | We have a mindset that everything is a challenge for survival and that escalation is therefore always the right approach

00:28:52.260 | My view is a little bit of prudence could save the whole planet

00:28:57.300 | so

00:28:59.180 | Why I don't like Ukraine is that I don't see any reason in the world

00:29:04.140 | That NATO has to be on Russia's border with Ukraine

00:29:08.780 | I was as I said Gorbachev's advisor and Yeltsin's advisor

00:29:13.580 | And they wanted peace and they wanted cooperation

00:29:16.360 | But whatever they wanted they did not want the u.s. Military on their border

00:29:22.740 | So if we continue to push as we did we would get to war

00:29:27.620 | John explained that better than anybody. We're now at war and even this morning there is further escalation

00:29:35.500 | Blinken has said well if the Iranians give these missiles, then we will give missiles to hit deep into Russia

00:29:42.260 | this is a recipe and then we had

00:29:45.140 | Bill Burns the CIA director say last week an

00:29:49.340 | Absurdity that he knows but CIA directors never tell the truth if they do they lose their job

00:29:54.920 | But he said don't worry about nuclear war. Don't worry about saber-rattling

00:29:59.380 | My advice to you is worry a lot about nuclear war and so be prudent

00:30:06.660 | You don't have to put the u.s. Military on Russia's border

00:30:12.260 | Okay, and my advice to Russia and to Mexico when I'm going to Mexico tomorrow, I'll give them a piece of advice

00:30:19.580 | Don't let China or Russia build a military base on the Rio Grande

00:30:24.540 | Not a good idea for Mexico not a good idea for Ukraine not a good idea for Russia

00:30:30.620 | Not a good idea for China. Not a good idea for the United States

00:30:34.300 | We need to stay a little bit away from each other so that we don't have a nuclear war

00:30:40.220 | By the way, I do recommend another good book and that is Annie Jacobson's nuclear war a scenario

00:30:47.140 | It takes two hours to read the world ends in two hours in the book

00:30:51.500 | and it's a very persuasive a guide that

00:30:56.120 | One nuke can ruin your whole day as they say

00:30:59.660 | My my strong advice on this therefore is recognize

00:31:07.340 | China first of all is not a threat to the United States

00:31:13.020 | Security big oceans big nuclear deterrent and so forth second. We don't have to be in China's face

00:31:21.340 | What do I mean by that? We don't have to provoke World War three over Taiwan

00:31:26.100 | That's a long complicated issue, but this would be the stupidest thing for my grandchildren to die for

00:31:32.620 | Unimaginable and I resent it every day when we play that game

00:31:37.980 | we have three agreements with China that say we're going to stay out of that and

00:31:42.820 | We should and then China would have no reason for war either

00:31:47.420 | China and

00:31:50.260 | Then on the economic side, let me just reiterate

00:31:53.140 | Because I was asked yesterday and there was some surprise. Was it good to let China into the the WTO?

00:32:00.780 | I said, of course it enriched all of you, by the way, it enriched me it enriched this country it enriched the world

00:32:08.260 | Including enriching China, that's normal

00:32:11.380 | Economics is not a zero-sum game. We all agree on that

00:32:15.300 | I believe that security doesn't have to be a zero-sum game either

00:32:20.540 | we can stay a little bit away from each other and

00:32:23.620 | China does not spend its time

00:32:27.660 | Moaning America being a Western Hemisphere

00:32:29.980 | Hegemon they don't that's not their greatest interest to bring down American

00:32:36.660 | Power in the Western Hemisphere Jeff. What about the energy? Let's let John respond to this

00:32:42.620 | Just very quickly. Most of you have probably never asked yourself the question

00:32:47.980 | Why is the United States roaming all over the planet interfering in every country's business?

00:32:54.140 | It's in part because it's so powerful

00:32:56.140 | But it's also because it's a regional hegemon, which means we have no threats in the Western Hemisphere

00:33:01.180 | so we are free to roam the great danger Jeff if China becomes a regional hegemon and

00:33:09.240 | Doesn't have to worry about security and they behave like us. Yeah, then they behave like us

00:33:14.280 | But my point to you Jeff is let's prevent that from happening by preventing them from becoming a regional hegemon

00:33:23.340 | We don't want them to have freedom to roam. You were talking about them putting military bases in Mexico. Yeah, that's our great fear

00:33:31.140 | It's not my great fear. They have no interest in doing so because they don't want to get blown up either

00:33:36.700 | So they do seem to have a big interest Jeff in Africa, India, Russia, and they are say it again

00:33:42.860 | China has a major

00:33:46.660 | Doesn't military bases there. Well, they're building nuclear power plants and trade and they're building

00:33:51.400 | That let's go compete that way I'm all in favor of that Jeff that's because they're not a regional hegemon yet

00:33:58.860 | Yeah, if you try to prevent them from being a regional hegemon

00:34:04.220 | We're gonna end up in World War three because as you say yourself that this can absolutely spill over into war

00:34:11.980 | I don't want it to spill over into war on the theory that maybe someday they behave differently

00:34:18.060 | That's not a good theory for me that part. So John can we?

00:34:22.040 | contain China prevent them from becoming a regional hegemon without

00:34:26.880 | Directly defending Taiwan. I mean, isn't that where the rubber meets the road?

00:34:30.840 | No, it's not just Taiwan

00:34:33.260 | I mean one could argue there's sort of three flash points in East Asia that you folks should keep your eye on

00:34:38.700 | one is obviously Taiwan two is the South China Sea and three is the East China Sea and I think

00:34:44.940 | David that the place where a conflict is most likely today is not over Taiwan

00:34:49.940 | I could explain why I think Taiwan it's not a serious problem at the moment or for the foreseeable future

00:34:55.180 | The South China Sea is a very dangerous place. We could end up in a war for sure

00:35:00.540 | Even if we did not defend Taiwan

00:35:05.340 | So Taiwan you don't want to overemphasize I agree with that

00:35:09.540 | I agree with Jeff that we definitely don't want a war and we certainly don't want a nuclear war and he is

00:35:16.520 | Absolutely, correct that there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war breaks out of any sort between China and the United States

00:35:23.600 | Many of us in the audience remember the Cold War and this was an ever-present danger in the Cold War

00:35:29.660 | but my argument is that this is inevitable because in a world where you don't have a higher authority and you

00:35:36.460 | Care about your survival. You have a deep-seated interest as any state in the system to be as powerful as possible

00:35:44.140 | John that means dominating your area

00:35:46.660 | There is one

00:35:49.060 | Player on this chessboard that hasn't come up yet. And then maybe we could skate to where the puck is going

00:35:53.460 | You know when you talk about the South China Sea, okay

00:35:56.540 | Sure, South Korea, Japan, Australia all those major players there. They're just a couple of hundred million people

00:36:01.620 | But then China is in population decline

00:36:04.220 | She apparently is self-destructing in terms of trade

00:36:07.420 | Seems like containment's working pretty well there because of all the self-inflicted wounds

00:36:11.940 | But the fastest growing country the fastest growing economy the quickest to develop is India and they seem to have a very pragmatic approach

00:36:19.940 | Hey, they'll buy cheap oil from Putin and they are their own sovereign country with their own point of view

00:36:25.460 | Would we not be really well advised over the next 10 to 20 years to make that our priority and India's role in this?

00:36:31.980 | How do you look at them? Well, we definitely view India as an ally, right? It's part of the quad, which is this

00:36:39.180 | This Rube Goldberg type alliance structure that we put together in East Asia that includes Australia, Japan the United States in India

00:36:47.820 | and

00:36:49.420 | India is

00:36:51.020 | Smartly maintaining its good relations with Russia the Indians understand like Jeff and I do that the Russians are no great threat

00:36:58.660 | But from India's point of view, the real threat is China, right?

00:37:02.980 | Right, and there are two places where India cares about China

00:37:06.220 | One is on the India China border up in the Himalayas where they've actually had conflicts

00:37:12.220 | Right, and there's a real danger of war breaking out the second place

00:37:17.060 | Which is maybe even more dangerous not at the moment, but will be over time is the Indian Ocean

00:37:23.340 | Because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon

00:37:29.260 | They want to develop power projection capability

00:37:32.440 | So the Chinese are building a blue water Navy that can come out of East Asia through the Straits of Malacca

00:37:39.060 | through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf and

00:37:43.380 | once you start talking about going through the Indian Ocean the Indians get spooked and

00:37:48.940 | That's when the Americans and the Indians come together. Okay, let's think of this from an engineering point of view if we could

00:37:56.020 | Why are the Chinese developing the Navy because for 40 years I've read

00:38:04.840 | essays on all of the choke points

00:38:09.900 | In the South China Sea the East China Sea the Indian Ocean against China

00:38:15.380 | That's our policy choke points. Look at the Malacca Straits. Look what we can do here first island chain

00:38:22.940 | This is American strategy. Can we keep the Chinese submarines out of the Pacific Ocean first China first?

00:38:30.140 | Island chain and so forth. So of course they react they're rich

00:38:35.620 | they're gonna build a Navy so that they can get their oil on which their economy runs can we be a little bit sensible with

00:38:42.180 | them and

00:38:43.620 | Decide how we're not going to have choke points and then we don't have to have a nuclear war which is really going to ruin our day

00:38:49.460 | That's the point. We can think a little bit we can understand it from their perspective. We can understand it from our perspective

00:38:57.500 | Deconfliction by the way, I don't believe India is an ally

00:39:05.700 | India is a superpower

00:39:08.100 | India is gonna have its own very distinctive interest. Thank you. It's not going to be an ally of the United States

00:39:15.940 | I happen to like India enormously and we're making their policies

00:39:20.460 | But the idea that India is going to ally with the United States against China

00:39:24.660 | in somebody's dream

00:39:28.580 | In Washington because it's another delusion in Washington because they should get a passport and go see the world and and on and

00:39:36.740 | understand something

00:39:39.020 | But Jeffrey if they

00:39:42.420 | These are my failed students in Washington right now because they didn't listen to their professor Jeffrey

00:39:48.900 | We're making our iPhones in India. Now. Is that not?

00:39:54.980 | We're moving iPhone production Cooper maybe Cooper you're into economics here and that impact

00:40:00.500 | You got Apple moving out of China. You've got Japan

00:40:03.980 | Funding people leaving China to Vietnam and to India. Is that not the solution here as we decouple from China?

00:40:09.940 | It seems like they come back to the table

00:40:11.860 | We had Xi Jinping kick all the venture capitalists all investment out of China

00:40:15.860 | He got rid of all the education startups and then whatever two or three years later

00:40:20.300 | He's in San Francisco asking all of us to invest more money and say where'd you go?

00:40:24.580 | Okay, first of all, I

00:40:26.580 | Invite me back ten years and we'll see how smart all these decisions are because Xi Jinping's it's incorrect

00:40:33.900 | No, I'm talking about yes, we've moved to India

00:40:36.420 | That's our great ally and then then we're gonna have other other issues. Well, you know, I'm okay

00:40:41.260 | I think you said that Xi Jinping's trade policy is

00:40:44.980 | Employed self imploding or something. It seems like there's a lot of self-inflicted wounds when you not let me explain what the wounds are

00:40:52.860 | okay, the wounds are the United States deliberate policy to stop you from selling things to China and

00:41:00.140 | To stop China buying things from you. That's not self-inflicted. Oh, no, you're wrong. This is a clear wrong here

00:41:06.220 | Wait a minute. We're just to say let me say yeah, because this is very important for the economy of the people in this room

00:41:12.320 | This is a decision that was taken around

00:41:14.940 | 2014

00:41:17.740 | to contain China and it's been systematically applied since then and

00:41:24.060 | It's not a surprise that

00:41:26.580 | Biden

00:41:27.780 | Kept all the things that Trump did and added more and now Trump says I'm gonna do all the things that Biden has kept in

00:41:35.460 | Place and I'm gonna do more. This is not a self-inflicted wound

00:41:39.380 | The United States has closed the market to China. Okay, is that smart? No, it's not smart

00:41:46.420 | Is it leading to I is it by the way recuperating American manufacturing jobs?

00:41:53.740 | zero

00:41:55.780 | It may shift them a bit. It may may make things less efficient

00:42:00.380 | It may may make all of you lose a bit more money or not make as much money

00:42:05.700 | But is it going to solve any single economic problem in the United States? No way

00:42:12.580 | I

00:42:14.580 | Just want to ask Jeff a question on this

00:42:19.460 | My argument is that this is the way the world works. Yes, I know and it is and it is

00:42:27.660 | But if I'm describing how the world really works, how do you beat me?

00:42:33.100 | The reason is you've described a world

00:42:36.420 | You've described I think better than any

00:42:40.740 | Person I ever read or know how American foreign policy works. I think it's likely to get us all blown up

00:42:48.420 | you you not and

00:42:51.020 | you title not not because of John but because he's made an accurate description of a

00:42:56.980 | profoundly misguided approach which is

00:43:00.620 | power-seeking

00:43:03.540 | even if you're safe as a

00:43:05.540 | Regional hegemon, you're never safe. If another regional hegemon does what you do

00:43:10.780 | No, you can't allow that to happen. So you have to meddle every single place in the world this now

00:43:16.500 | All I'm saying wait, let me just finish because important that it is important to say

00:43:21.780 | Try this in the nuclear age. You don't get a second chance

00:43:26.500 | So this to me is the most definitive fact of our lives

00:43:33.260 | Which is we are now in a war direct war direct war not proxy war direct war with Russia

00:43:40.960 | Which has 6,000 nuclear warheads. I can't think of anything more imbecilic than that

00:43:47.560 | Aside from the fact that I know step by step because I saw it with my own eyes

00:43:52.440 | How we got into that mess because we thought we had to meddle up to including

00:43:59.820 | Putting NATO into Georgia in the Caucasus of all places and Ukraine

00:44:05.300 | So we made that because we have to meddle because we couldn't let good enough

00:44:11.060 | Stand if we do the same with China, there will be a war

00:44:16.100 | But it's not like reading about the Crimean War or World War one or World War two. That's my difference

00:44:24.340 | this is a fine theory that explains a lot of things but

00:44:28.700 | Damn, if you can make

00:44:30.700 | chat GPT or you can make

00:44:32.940 | Optimus or you can make all the rest we can avoid nuclear war

00:44:38.060 | So just do a little bit better than saying it's inevitable

00:44:41.900 | All right, so

00:44:45.620 | We only have a minute left. I want to give it to John

00:44:47.940 | He had a question. I know but we only have a minute left and it's not we got five minutes

00:44:52.660 | This is the best panel I've ever been on in my life. Can we just have ten minutes?

00:44:56.620 | We got to add five or ten minutes the best panel. Is this the best?

00:44:59.740 | Okay, we got five minutes so before before we leave this topic John your book is called the tragedy of great power politics

00:45:11.020 | You clearly understand the tragic aspect of how great power rivalry great power competition can lead to disaster

00:45:18.140 | What Jeff is saying is we're now in the nuclear age and it's gonna lead to nuclear war

00:45:23.260 | So do we have to be on this path or is there a way off of it two points in my heart?

00:45:30.140 | I'm with Jeff in my head. I'm not with Jeff

00:45:34.620 | I wish he were right, but I don't believe he's right to answer your question head-on

00:45:40.380 | I believe that there is no way out. We are in an iron cage

00:45:44.660 | This is just the way international politics works and it's because you're in an anarchic

00:45:49.900 | System where you can never be sure that a really powerful state in the system won't come after you and inflict a century of national

00:45:56.980 | Humiliation on you so you go to great lengths to avoid that by trying to gain power at the expense of another

00:46:04.900 | Power and that leads to all sorts of trouble. Can war be avoided?

00:46:10.180 | I like to distinguish between security competition, which I think is inevitable and war which is where security competition

00:46:17.620 | Evolves into war. I think war can be avoided and we were thankfully successful in that regard during the Cold War and

00:46:25.100 | Hopefully that will be the case in the US China competition moving forward. Can I guarantee that?

00:46:32.700 | No

00:46:34.540 | Does this disturb me greatly? Yes, but again, this is just the tragic aspect of the world we live in

00:46:42.100 | Let me just ask one because we're a little bit

00:46:44.540 | I know we were gonna try and talk about Middle East it for a good chunk of this. I just want a scenario

00:46:48.860 | Propose or kind of give you guys a scenario get your reaction because it is kind of what feels to be the most imminent

00:46:56.440 | theater of conflict

00:46:58.940 | the West Bank

00:47:00.700 | the

00:47:02.500 | Israelis are buttressing the settlements. There's a lot of checkpoints things are getting very tense

00:47:07.540 | They're running raids and it's becoming a very difficult place to live for Palestinians

00:47:11.340 | And there's a real concern that the West Bank collides Israelis and Israelis

00:47:15.220 | But there's a real risk that the West Bank collapses and turns into a real conflict zone if that happens

00:47:21.600 | The Jordanians are sitting right there and they're not gonna let Palestinians get slaughtered

00:47:26.320 | They're gonna have to do something and there's such a strong ally of the United States

00:47:29.580 | Does that trigger a theater of?

00:47:33.020 | Response where what is Saudi going to do are others going to be drawn to the region?

00:47:38.620 | Does the collapse of the West Bank or the the conflict that seems to be brewing in the West Bank?

00:47:43.020 | become this kind of tinderbox for everyone showing up and getting involved and

00:47:48.300 | And create some sort of regional issue that we get drawn into in a bigger way

00:47:54.300 | Can I start and have John have the last word? I I work each day at the UN and

00:48:02.300 | Discuss this issue with ambassadors from all over the world

00:48:07.420 | there is over the last 50 years a an agreement on what would make for peace and

00:48:14.560 | the agreement is

00:48:17.020 | two states

00:48:19.020 | Maybe with a big wall between them on the 4th of June

00:48:23.020 | 1967 borders with a state of Palestine being the hundred ninety-fourth UN member state and its capital in East

00:48:31.780 | Jerusalem and control over the Islamic holy sites and that is international law the

00:48:37.980 | International Court of Justice just reaffirmed that the Israeli settlements in the West Bank are

00:48:44.060 | illegal

00:48:46.180 | the

00:48:47.300 | International Criminal Court

00:48:49.260 | Is likely to find or ICJ is likely to find that Israel is in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention

00:48:56.260 | Which I very much believe it to be in violation

00:49:00.460 | so my own solution to this is

00:49:03.400 | Implement international law two states build the wall as high as you need to build

00:49:09.300 | But you give Palestinian rights you establish a state of Palestine. You stop the Israeli slaughter of

00:49:16.980 | Palestinians you stop the Israeli apartheid state and

00:49:20.660 | You have two states living side by side

00:49:24.620 | Israel is dead set against that

00:49:27.500 | the entire

00:49:29.740 | Israeli political

00:49:31.740 | Governance now is dead set against that hundreds of thousands of

00:49:36.500 | Illegal settlers in the West Bank are dead set against that Smotrich, Ben-Gavir, Gallant

00:49:42.640 | Netanyahu are dead set against that so my view is it has nothing to do with what Israel wants it has to do with

00:49:50.180 | Enforcement of international law so I want to see this imposed not because Israel agrees to it

00:49:56.660 | but because it is imposed and

00:49:59.020 | There is one country that stands in the way of imposing this not Iran not the Saudis not

00:50:06.060 | Egypt not Russia not China not any country in the European Union one country in one country alone

00:50:12.860 | And that is because of the United States of America and the Israel lobby

00:50:18.740 | Somebody wrote a very good book about that too that I know the best book ever written about it by John

00:50:24.660 | and

00:50:27.340 | That's what stops the solution that could bring peace, and I believe we should bring peace because

00:50:34.000 | Not only would that bring peace to the Palestinians and peace to the Israelis

00:50:38.940 | But it would avoid potentially another flashpoint that could easily end up in World War three

00:50:45.140 | Let me answer your question about escalation potential the Jordanians coming in

00:50:52.460 | Israel faces three big problems aside from problems with centrifugal forces inside the society

00:50:58.920 | One is the Palestinian problem, which is both in Gaza and in the West Bank

00:51:04.100 | That's one two is Hezbollah and three is Iran I

00:51:08.940 | Think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening

00:51:14.460 | Which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank similar what they've done in Gaza

00:51:19.820 | That the Jordanians would come in or the Egyptians or the Saudis. They simply don't have the military capability

00:51:26.560 | This is a scenario where the Israelis completely dominate

00:51:30.820 | So in terms of escalation with regard to the Israel-Palestine problem, I don't think there's much potential

00:51:37.600 | Hezbollah is a different issue

00:51:40.500 | But mainly because it's linked with Iran, right?

00:51:44.460 | And Iran is the really dangerous flashpoint because as you know

00:51:49.300 | The Russians are now closely allied with the Iranians. The Chinese are moving in that direction as well and

00:51:55.100 | if

00:51:57.880 | Israel gets involved in a war with Iran

00:52:01.100 | we're going to come in in all likelihood remember when the Israelis attacked the

00:52:07.660 | the Iranian

00:52:11.020 | Embassy in Damascus on April 1st on April 14th

00:52:16.500 | The Iranians retaliated a reciprocal response. Yeah, but but we were involved we were we were forewarned weren't we?

00:52:23.980 | Yes, we're for work. But the point is that we were involved in the fighting, right?

00:52:28.420 | We were involved with the Israelis with the French the British the Jordanians and the Saudis

00:52:33.380 | We were all involved in the fighting. So this gets at the escalation problem now to counter the Iranian

00:52:41.140 | escalation scenario

00:52:42.380 | The fact is Iran does not want a war with the United States and the United States does not want a war with Iran

00:52:49.660 | And it's the Israelis

00:52:51.660 | Especially Benjamin Netanyahu has been who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war

00:52:57.260 | Because he wants us the United States to really whack Iran

00:53:02.420 | Weaken it militarily and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities because as you well know

00:53:08.380 | They are close to the point where they can develop nuclear weapons

00:53:12.220 | So the Israelis are the ones who want us to get involved in a big war with Iran

00:53:18.340 | That's the escalation flashpoint and the sixty four thousand dollar question is whether you think the United States and Iran

00:53:25.060 | Kind of colluding can work together to prevent the Israelis from getting us that that question will be answered based on the next

00:53:33.700 | Who leads the next?

00:53:36.860 | Administration. Well, if you believe that it matters who leads the next

00:53:40.900 | Thank you, let me just say

00:53:46.860 | Jeffrey and John now, I know why

00:53:50.300 | Sacks will not stop talking about you to the most amazing panel of the event so far. Give it up

00:53:56.980 | for Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer

00:53:59.540 | Wow

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