back to indexBogleheads® on Investing Podcast 006 – Dan Egan, host Rick Ferri (audio only)
Chapters
0:0 Introduction
0:38 Guest introduction
2:16 Dans background
4:41 Index funds
5:41 ETFs vs openend funds
6:43 Bogleheads on Investing
8:33 The Behavior Gap
10:55 Dans Research
12:46 Knowing whos paying attention
13:38 Alerting clients
16:26 meerkat effect
18:8 Taxes
21:30 People dont like taxes
22:5 Secondorder beliefs
23:56 Outsourcing to machines
27:56 Tax loss harvesting
29:23 Golf analogy
33:11 The future of fintech
36:29 Hourlybased advice
40:41 A la carte advice
42:32 Are you on the hook
43:51 Deferring the fee
00:00:10.000 |
Hello everyone and welcome to the sixth episode of Bogleheads on Investing. 00:00:17.000 |
Today we're talking about behavioral finance. 00:00:21.000 |
Our guest is Dan Egan, Director of Behavior Science and Investing at Betterment. 00:00:38.000 |
My name is Rick Ferry and I'm the host of Bogleheads on Investing. 00:00:43.000 |
This episode is brought to you by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a 501(c)(3) corporation. 00:00:56.000 |
Dan is a behavioral scientist who works at Betterment. 00:01:00.000 |
Betterment is a robo-advisor who is using technology to help people invest better. 00:01:08.000 |
And a lot of what Betterment is doing and the programs that they're running are based on behavioral science. 00:01:16.000 |
I've been following Dan's work for several years now 00:01:20.000 |
and I find it extremely interesting how this company is, for lack of a better word, 00:01:26.000 |
controlling their clients' behavior by analyzing client data and testing various hypotheses 00:01:34.000 |
in a real lab of hundreds of thousands of clients to improve their investment performance. 00:01:46.000 |
I really appreciate you being on the show. You're an up-and-comer, if you will. 00:01:50.000 |
What you're doing at Betterment as the Director of Behavioral Science and Investing is extremely interesting. 00:01:56.000 |
And I thought it'd be great to have you on the show so you can talk with us about all the work that you're doing there and all the neat stuff. 00:02:02.000 |
It's like you're in this big lab in real world and you get to actually run experiments on real people 00:02:08.000 |
and do real things as opposed to theory, sort of an ivory tower classroom setting. 00:02:13.000 |
So can you tell us a little bit about who you are and how you ended up at Betterment? 00:02:17.000 |
It's a great place to be, but with great power comes great responsibility. 00:02:21.000 |
I'll trace out so that I think it's actually useful for the path that I got here by. 00:02:26.000 |
It's interesting that it explains my background a bit. 00:02:28.000 |
I did my graduate degree in decision science, which is a combination of psychology and game theory and statistics. 00:02:36.000 |
So trying to figure out how to help people, real people, make better decisions. 00:02:40.000 |
And I had never had any desire to go into finance or investing. 00:02:44.000 |
But during that program, one of the people who I worked with said, 00:02:47.000 |
why don't you come and work with my investment company for a little while? 00:02:50.000 |
And I thought, you know, I heard that these people get paid well and it sounds really interesting what they're doing. 00:02:56.000 |
So I went and did that and I worked there for about a year and it was an incredible experience. 00:03:01.000 |
Learning very quickly the difference between academic finance and real world finance. 00:03:06.000 |
And after doing that for a year, I realized that that specific kind of finance, 00:03:11.000 |
a private equity firm, was not what I wanted to do. 00:03:14.000 |
And this job came up at Barclays Wealth in the UK, which is a high net worth asset management firm, 00:03:20.000 |
doing applied behavioral finance, trying to help advisors give better advice, 00:03:25.000 |
not only in terms of it fitting to the client better, 00:03:28.000 |
but also the client being more likely to adhere to it, to actually go through with it. 00:03:33.000 |
So I worked there for about six years with advisors, 00:03:36.000 |
both building behavioral tweaks to the platforms as well as integrating it into their advice. 00:03:42.000 |
And one of the things that kept striking me, as you've alluded to, 00:03:46.000 |
is that there's this three body problem going on. 00:03:48.000 |
So we have the end investor who's going to come with their specific circumstances, 00:03:52.000 |
but also their psyche and their particular strengths and weaknesses as an individual. 00:03:57.000 |
Then you have the same thing for the advisor. 00:04:00.000 |
And here's me sort of in the background trying to change the system, 00:04:04.000 |
trying to change the system and the advisors and coach them and train them 00:04:07.000 |
to see if we can help the end client be better off. 00:04:09.000 |
And that's a very noisy environment to be in. 00:04:15.000 |
You're never really sure if what you are doing is actually working. 00:04:18.000 |
So I moved to the U.S. and I started looking at Betterment. 00:04:22.000 |
It struck me as a great opportunity to improve upon both of these things. 00:04:25.000 |
So number one, I, as a behavioral scientist, can try to improve things with clients, 00:04:31.000 |
but test it in a rigorous fashion in the real world, see what impact it has on the behavior, 00:04:36.000 |
and if it works, roll it out to all of them and have high confidence that it actually works 00:04:42.000 |
So you were looking at Betterment as an option, 00:04:45.000 |
and you liked the idea that it was a real-time experiment with real investors. 00:04:50.000 |
At the time, the company was up and running and they were using index funds. 00:04:55.000 |
Did you give it any thought to why John Stein had chosen index funds 00:05:01.000 |
and why that was the focus of the investment philosophy behind Betterment? 00:05:06.000 |
I think there are a lot of reasons to go with index funds. 00:05:09.000 |
Obviously, they tend to be much lower cost than more opaque or more actively managed funds. 00:05:15.000 |
They're also more transparent about exactly what they're going to do and when and how. 00:05:19.000 |
They scale very well in that generally you can put a lot of money into them 00:05:24.000 |
and it's not going to negatively affect the performance of the fund, 00:05:29.000 |
And we wanted to be able to say to clients that we were doing 00:05:33.000 |
what there was a lot of good long-run evidence for, 00:05:36.000 |
which is that lower-cost, systematic, index-based investing tends to do better. 00:05:42.000 |
But you're using only ETFs as opposed to open-end, traditional mutual funds. 00:05:47.000 |
Is that an operational reason, or do you think they're better than open-end funds? 00:05:59.000 |
and ETFs are significantly more tax-efficient than mutual funds. 00:06:03.000 |
They are able to trade throughout the course of the day. 00:06:06.000 |
That's something that we can talk about and come back to about whether or not that's good or bad. 00:06:10.000 |
If you use them in a portfolio, it provides some services and functions 00:06:14.000 |
that it's much harder to do with mutual funds. 00:06:16.000 |
A very small example, in terms of transparency, 00:06:19.000 |
is that a lot of mutual funds have 12(b)(1) and marketing fees embedded in them, 00:06:26.000 |
but is a way that third parties can be compensated for using those funds. 00:06:30.000 |
Structurally, that's just not possible with ETFs. 00:06:35.000 |
So there's a level of transparency and an inability to have conflicts of interest 00:06:40.000 |
that make ETFs preferable, as well as tax-efficient. 00:06:46.000 |
made a comment that there would be no betterment without Bogle. 00:06:49.000 |
In fact, I think that was the title of the article that he wrote, 00:06:56.000 |
He was invited by Jack Bogle to go to Vanguard. 00:06:59.000 |
He spent all day with Jack, and Jack was very encouraged by what he was doing. 00:07:03.000 |
I can understand that, because to get young people, 00:07:06.000 |
particularly interested in index fund investing at a young age, 00:07:11.000 |
is something that I didn't have when I was growing up. 00:07:15.000 |
When I was in my 20s, there was one index fund, 00:07:21.000 |
So what you're doing by getting the word out about index fund investing at a young age, 00:07:27.000 |
I find it to be very encouraging and very good for society long term. 00:07:33.000 |
John hopes to do for broader personal finance what Jack Bogle did for investing. 00:07:42.000 |
He didn't compromise on his morals and what he thought was right, 00:07:47.000 |
and his ability to be successful and to grow a very large company that serves millions of people, 00:07:52.000 |
that's a perfect inspiration for what we're trying to do at Betterment. 00:07:56.000 |
I think that he created a little beachhead there in terms of investing 00:08:01.000 |
and having low-cost funds that were owned as mutuals, 00:08:05.000 |
but that is a very small component of what most people need in terms of help with their finances. 00:08:10.000 |
They need the ability to plan for and manage cash flow better, 00:08:14.000 |
the ability to use the correct account types if we're talking about a Roth or a traditional IRA or a 529. 00:08:20.000 |
Investing in personal finance is very complicated, 00:08:23.000 |
especially if you want to do it, if you want to make the most out of all the possibilities out there. 00:08:28.000 |
Making it easy for the vast majority of normal people to do that is John's mission. 00:08:33.000 |
One of the things that I found fascinating about Betterment is your automation. 00:08:39.000 |
Do you truly believe that through automation you can get people to behave better? 00:08:45.000 |
You talk a lot about bad behavior of investors and the cost of what's called the behavior gap or the investor gap, 00:08:55.000 |
and there's different names for it, but you use the behavior gap. 00:08:58.000 |
Can you first talk about the behavior gap and then talk about what Betterment is doing 00:09:03.000 |
and the automation that you've created to get people to invest better? 00:09:07.000 |
Absolutely. The behavior gap most broadly is that we might know what it is that we are supposed to do 00:09:15.000 |
in order to get some kind of an optimal outcome, but it's hard for us to actually execute on it. 00:09:21.000 |
It's fairly straightforward that you eat less and exercise more and you'll probably lose weight, 00:09:26.000 |
but it's hard to actually get through with that, to actually stay the course and be consistent in it. 00:09:31.000 |
In investing, we see this come up in a number of different places. 00:09:35.000 |
I think there's a lot of the studies transparently lead to investors try and do too much 00:09:44.000 |
They trade more than they should, and every time they trade, they probably pay commissions 00:09:49.000 |
and bid-ask spreads and possibly even taxes if they have any gains that they're realizing. 00:09:55.000 |
They hold much more concentrated portfolios, so they'll hold a few stocks of companies 00:10:00.000 |
that they're familiar with or maybe they've done a little bit of research on, 00:10:03.000 |
but they tend to not be very diversified or not intentionally diversified. 00:10:07.000 |
These two or three things, which actually take a lot of work and thought on the part of the investor, 00:10:13.000 |
end up with them underperforming a simple low-cost index portfolio. 00:10:18.000 |
There's this strange thing where they're doing worse because they're putting a lot more effort in, 00:10:26.000 |
What we're trying to do is, number one, make it so that people are confident and comfortable 00:10:31.000 |
that they are doing the right thing by investing in the diversified portfolio, 00:10:36.000 |
by allowing us to manage it in a really transparent, systematic way for them. 00:10:41.000 |
That will help them be comfortable and reduce the kind of anxiety-provoked actions 00:10:48.000 |
they might take, like selling out after the market goes down or trading a little bit too much every month. 00:10:55.000 |
The interesting thing about your research is you have actual data. 00:11:00.000 |
You have access to literally hundreds of thousands of accounts that you can drill down into. 00:11:07.000 |
You like to study quant and you're a programmer, and you can drill down into actual accounts, 00:11:14.000 |
whereas other researchers at academics, they would have to ask companies for data. 00:11:19.000 |
You have the data, and you can drill down, and you can look at what your investors are doing. 00:11:24.000 |
You found that even in your own accounts that there is behavioral issues, even with your own investors. 00:11:31.000 |
Based on our research, about 70% of our clients are what I would consider like they get a 100 out of 100. 00:11:38.000 |
The remaining 30% have very specific markers of when and why they are behaved badly. 00:11:45.000 |
I'd actually take your statement and double down on it and say, not only do I have access to really good data, 00:11:53.000 |
If I could put myself out of a job, that would be fantastic. 00:11:56.000 |
Because when you look at that 30% of clients who are making specific mistakes, it's fairly predictable. 00:12:03.000 |
They are going to trade too much. One of the things that we look at is the role that gender plays. 00:12:08.000 |
Men trade. They log in more. They trade more than women. 00:12:12.000 |
Here's the neat thing. When they trade, they make much more extreme moves. 00:12:16.000 |
Men are much more likely to go from 100% stocks to 0% stocks than these sort of whipsaws, 00:12:22.000 |
whereas women are much more likely to go from 90% stocks down to 80% stocks if they're going to make an allocation change. 00:12:29.000 |
Looking at the things that predict people's bad investing behavior and then at the same time saying, 00:12:36.000 |
"Okay, how could I improve that? How do I reduce this gap using this behavior?" 00:12:40.000 |
and then going out and running scientific trials of those improvements, that's what I love doing. 00:12:46.000 |
What have you found? What have you done to help that 30% who are making the mistakes? 00:12:52.000 |
One component of it, which is neat, is knowing who's really paying attention to the markets. 00:12:58.000 |
If you take 100 people and the market is going down and it's generating a lot of news, 00:13:04.000 |
a standard traditional financial advisor, especially because of the client base they work with, 00:13:08.000 |
might be tempted to say, "Well, I need to get in touch with all my clients 00:13:11.000 |
and tell them what I think about what's going on in markets right now." 00:13:15.000 |
What we found, again, running randomized control trials, 00:13:19.000 |
is that the vast majority of people really aren't paying that much attention to what's going on in markets. 00:13:25.000 |
There are things in their lives that are far more important. 00:13:28.000 |
If you do send out a blast communication or email of some kind, 00:13:32.000 |
you're actually going to generate more anxiety than you are going to resolve 00:13:36.000 |
because you're hitting a lot of people who weren't worried about it. 00:13:39.000 |
Dan, I completely agree with you when you talk about alerting clients that the market is going down 00:13:47.000 |
I recall several times in my career when we would have a downturn in the market 00:13:54.000 |
and some of the advisors who worked with me would say, 00:13:57.000 |
"Look, we need to send out a letter to a client to tell them everything's okay." 00:14:00.000 |
I would say, "No, we don't. If it's not okay, they'll call us. 00:14:06.000 |
If it is okay, then let's not make them worry 00:14:10.000 |
because anytime we send out a letter that says, 'Don't worry,' they worry." 00:14:15.000 |
One of the things that when we saw this issue, we said, 00:14:19.000 |
"Okay, so what we need to do, much like as if you're a doctor, 00:14:23.000 |
is that you don't treat everybody for a disease. 00:14:26.000 |
You only treat the people who are afflicted by it." 00:14:29.000 |
We want to be able to identify just the people who are really engaged with markets, 00:14:35.000 |
who are most likely to be anxious about what's going on in the markets. 00:14:39.000 |
Rather than sending out blast emails, when you log in, 00:14:43.000 |
we would send you a targeted notification with different messages 00:14:46.000 |
to try and see if different messages resonate differently with different kinds of people. 00:14:51.000 |
Some messages will be highly factual and relate to the market. 00:14:57.000 |
They'll say, "You're doing a great job, and you're still on track for retirement. 00:15:00.000 |
Keep going." They'll be positive and affirming of things. 00:15:04.000 |
In testing those messages, we found that, number one, 00:15:07.000 |
the targeting rather than the shotgun blast is much, much more effective. 00:15:11.000 |
It means that we get much fewer false positives. 00:15:14.000 |
Number two, tailoring the message so that it is more relevant 00:15:18.000 |
to the way a person thinks about it and that it's going to be more positive 00:15:21.000 |
and affirming for them personally is much more effective. 00:15:24.000 |
Generally speaking, when we run experiments to learn this, 00:15:28.000 |
we see the people who get those messages have about a 15% to 20% improvement in their behavior, 00:15:33.000 |
meaning that they're less likely to make allocation changes or withdraw all their money. 00:15:37.000 |
Do you happen to go as far as sending a different message to men 00:15:41.000 |
than you do to women or different age groups? 00:15:45.000 |
We haven't intentionally targeted it quite that way yet. 00:15:48.000 |
One of the reasons is that, generally, we use broad archetypal variables like age and gender 00:15:55.000 |
because we don't have a better measure of some underlying thing, 00:16:01.000 |
If I can use a variable like the client's login rate, how often they log in, 00:16:06.000 |
how often they log in on mobile versus how long they log in on web, 00:16:10.000 |
that's generally like a higher fidelity signal about how engaged they are with markets, 00:16:15.000 |
whereas a lot of other researchers will say, "Well, young men tend to be the most engaged with markets." 00:16:19.000 |
I would even go down to an individual level metric that lets me see, 00:16:24.000 |
what does this person look like they're doing? 00:16:27.000 |
You wrote a paper called the Mercat Effect where you found that on both positive and negative market days, 00:16:36.000 |
more people do have a tendency to log in and look at their accounts. 00:16:43.000 |
But once they do log in, you're trying to ensure that they don't do something about it. 00:16:49.000 |
Yeah, this is an interesting thing that I think it's worth taking a step back on to give better context to. 00:16:55.000 |
One of the things I've learned over the years is that the same person will look and think fundamentally differently 00:17:06.000 |
Take a person who has a 401(k) through their employer. 00:17:10.000 |
They are going to treat that 401(k) in terms of trading and log-ons and management 00:17:14.000 |
very differently than they're going to treat their Betterment account, 00:17:17.000 |
which is very different than they're going to treat their online brokerage playing account. 00:17:21.000 |
The Mercat Effect study was done on an online discount brokerage 00:17:24.000 |
where a lot of people had highly concentrated portfolios and logged into trade. 00:17:28.000 |
And I think that behavior might be localized a bit to the platform that you're on. 00:17:38.000 |
And I think that the behavior that we're going to see, depending upon the data set, 00:17:42.000 |
the same person who has a brokerage account is going to act differently inside that brokerage account 00:17:47.000 |
than they're going to act on the Betterment platform. 00:17:50.000 |
Us and Vanguard have done studies looking at our clients, looking at the same 00:17:54.000 |
when do people pay attention to their accounts and to markets. 00:17:58.000 |
And you see we're a little bit closer to Vanguard in that when people have some inkling 00:18:03.000 |
that the market is down and that they're going to be unhappy about their accounts, 00:18:08.000 |
Dan, I found it was interesting in listening to one of your presentations 00:18:12.000 |
that the 30% of the people who will get on the Betterment website and trade, 00:18:19.000 |
that if you show them how much they're going to have to pay in taxes 00:18:23.000 |
if they do this trade that they're thinking about, 00:18:25.000 |
that it almost stops them in their tracks from doing the trade. 00:18:29.000 |
Can you talk about how taxes or the prospect of having to pay taxes affect people's decisions? 00:18:36.000 |
Definitely. And I'm going to, again, take a step back and give a little bit of broader context 00:18:40.000 |
about why this is so interesting for end consumers. 00:18:44.000 |
Most of us will have interacted with our finances through websites that are set up by brokers. 00:18:50.000 |
And brokers, if you think about it, they have very specific incentives. 00:18:55.000 |
They make money when you transact, when you trade, or you buy or sell a fund. 00:19:03.000 |
And that means that a lot of the interfaces we're used to, in a very subtle way, 00:19:09.000 |
They're going to encourage us to trade and they're going to encourage us to hold cash. 00:19:13.000 |
It might be by using red and green to indicate things going up and down, 00:19:18.000 |
which excites us emotionally. Cash always feels safe. 00:19:22.000 |
Here's a neat thing. If you want to get rid of red on your holdings, you can sell it. 00:19:27.000 |
And it just simply goes away. It's like you never had that loss. 00:19:30.000 |
And you go back to feeling like you're safe in cash. 00:19:33.000 |
And one of the things that's different about Betterment is that we are a fiduciary advisor, 00:19:39.000 |
and we make money when clients grow their money more. 00:19:44.000 |
We don't have these incentives to have people trade more or hold cash. 00:19:48.000 |
And one of the things that we were noticing is that people were trading, 00:19:52.000 |
and it looked like they weren't taking into account the fact that they were going to owe tax 00:19:59.000 |
And taxes work like a really, really bad credit card. 00:20:03.000 |
In that, in February, if you get worried about the markets and you sell out of everything 00:20:10.000 |
and you realize a $1,000 short-term capital gain, nobody tells you about it, 00:20:17.000 |
You have to wait until the following April when you do your taxes with the IRS 00:20:21.000 |
to find out that actually you didn't make a $1,000 gain. 00:20:24.000 |
You made a $500 gain because the IRS is going to keep half of it. 00:20:28.000 |
So it was important to us to say, well, we don't make money when people trade. 00:20:33.000 |
And maybe people are trading because they're not taking into consideration 00:20:37.000 |
all of the important factors, like how much this is going to be worth 00:20:42.000 |
So we were able to, in real time, they say, like, I would like to go from 90% stocks 00:20:47.000 |
to 0% stocks, where we calculate how much that's going to realize in short-term 00:20:52.000 |
and long-term capital gains and put up an estimate of that impact in front of them. 00:20:57.000 |
And what we saw is that people who were given that information, 00:21:01.000 |
if they were going to owe more than $50 in taxes, regardless of how big their account was, 00:21:06.000 |
there was less than a 1 in 10 chance of them going through with the allocation change. 00:21:11.000 |
So the first component of it, which I think is important, is that it looks like people 00:21:15.000 |
didn't know or weren't considering that when they do this thing now, 00:21:18.000 |
they're going to owe a lot of tax because of the transaction. 00:21:22.000 |
And simply by putting important information in front of them at that point in time, 00:21:27.000 |
we were able to reduce how much they were market timing. 00:21:30.000 |
You said if they were going to pay $50 in taxes, regardless of the size of the account, 00:21:35.000 |
I mean, I could understand that if it's a small account. 00:21:37.000 |
But people had millions of dollars. I mean, $50 is nothing. 00:21:47.000 |
So I actually ended up writing an academic paper on this. 00:21:58.000 |
There are a number of papers that find that people will pay more than a dollar 00:22:06.000 |
Dan, another piece of research that you wrote or participated in writing 00:22:10.000 |
for the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization talked about second-order beliefs. 00:22:15.000 |
In other words, if everybody around you is optimistic, thinking that the market is going up, 00:22:19.000 |
that even though you've done all this great work to determine what your risk allocation should be, 00:22:23.000 |
what your optimal asset allocation should be for your situation, 00:22:26.000 |
people have a tendency to increase that and add more equity 00:22:30.000 |
and perhaps getting them over their tolerance for risk unintentionally. 00:22:35.000 |
There's a saying by John Maynard Keynes that the stock market is like a beauty contest. 00:22:40.000 |
It's not really necessarily that you're trying to say, like, 00:22:43.000 |
if the market's overvalued or undervalued, but what do other people think? 00:22:47.000 |
You know, if you want to be able to speculate effectively, 00:22:50.000 |
it's not a matter of being right in an absolute sense. 00:22:53.000 |
It's a matter of just being ahead of the crowd. 00:22:56.000 |
So we went out and looked at how much people thought they knew what other people were thinking, 00:23:05.000 |
and how comfortable they were being different from the herd. 00:23:09.000 |
And so one of the first things that we picked up on is that 00:23:12.000 |
everybody thinks that the crowd agrees with them more than they actually do. 00:23:17.000 |
So if you're really bearish for the next quarter, 00:23:20.000 |
you're going to believe that most people are very bearish too. 00:23:23.000 |
If you're very bullish for the next quarter, you're going to believe that too. 00:23:27.000 |
And one of the nice things that we found was that the more self-aware a person was about 00:23:35.000 |
You have how good are you at understanding what the broad sentiment of the market is? 00:23:42.000 |
And number two, do you know that you are being a maverick by having a different view? 00:23:47.000 |
That sense of self-perspective and crowd perspective, 00:23:51.000 |
there were very few people that had it and the people who had it tended to have better performance. 00:23:56.000 |
Dan, in one of your presentations you gave to a CFA group, 00:24:05.000 |
the part of our brain that does the logic and the thinking 00:24:08.000 |
and comes up with asset allocations and so forth, 00:24:11.000 |
that through artificial intelligence and other technology tools, 00:24:15.000 |
we are taking a lot of the decision making and we are letting computers do it, 00:24:21.000 |
letting machines do it, and that this is a good thing. 00:24:24.000 |
And that there's a lot of things out there in personal finance that used to take a lot of thought 00:24:29.000 |
and advisors and individuals take up a lot of time and quite frankly made a lot of mistakes, 00:24:35.000 |
that by outsourcing it, if you will, to machines, behavior is getting better. 00:24:41.000 |
Could you talk about that whole concept and what can be outsourced to a machine these days? 00:24:46.000 |
One of our key advantages as a species is our ability to not only sort of use tools, 00:24:52.000 |
but also imagine and design new tools for us to use. 00:24:56.000 |
And for a lot of history, you can think about like cameras and steam engines and so on. 00:25:00.000 |
These were physical tools that we built outside of ourselves. 00:25:03.000 |
And we're just now starting to build and really explore the use of logical tools 00:25:08.000 |
that are able to make decisions in the real world for us. 00:25:11.000 |
We're still the ones building and designing them. 00:25:13.000 |
Computers aren't building and designing themselves quite yet. 00:25:16.000 |
That allows me to do a lot more because I can kind of like outsource a lot of my thinking 00:25:24.000 |
So I don't actually know what I'm doing after this call, but I'm sure that my calendar knows. 00:25:29.000 |
My calendar is going to notify me with what I need to do next. 00:25:32.000 |
But we're still the ones who need to say, well, what do we want this technology to do for us? 00:25:39.000 |
Something you keep coming back to is that the things that computers are really good at 00:25:45.000 |
They're incredibly good at doing the same thing over and over again, hundreds of thousands of times. 00:25:49.000 |
They're very good at math. They're very good at statistics. 00:25:53.000 |
What they're not good at is non-routine, creative, imaginative labor that understands human beings 00:25:59.000 |
and understands the circumstances that they find themselves in. 00:26:02.000 |
So there's a really nice symbiosis, a yin and yang going on right there, 00:26:07.000 |
where we can take the things that are boring and routine, 00:26:10.000 |
things like processing trades and calculating how much to put in each asset class 00:26:14.000 |
and looking at whether or not the taxes are going to be worth changing it compared to the fees. 00:26:20.000 |
And the programming itself, the thinking and designing of how we would go about that decision, 00:26:25.000 |
is very creative and very sort of challenging. 00:26:28.000 |
But once we've done it, we can have a computer execute it for lots and lots of people. 00:26:32.000 |
And I sort of think this in terms of how it dovetails with advisors, 00:26:36.000 |
is that there was a period of time where advisors had to, 00:26:40.000 |
because we didn't have the kind of exocortex doing things for us, 00:26:43.000 |
had to figure out how much each asset class should be bought in order to rebalance 00:26:48.000 |
or where the money should come from in terms of tax efficiency when you're doing retirement planning. 00:26:53.000 |
We knew what the answers were. We just needed to implement that thought process in a machine. 00:26:58.000 |
And now that frees up advisors to spend more time with clients 00:27:03.000 |
on the things that the computers are not going to be able to do. 00:27:06.000 |
Sitting down with a couple and having a conversation with them 00:27:09.000 |
about how they're going to actually spend time in retirement, 00:27:12.000 |
how much they're going to spend every year, what the budget constraints mean, 00:27:15.000 |
what they're comfortable with, that's something that you still need human-to-human back and forth on. 00:27:19.000 |
Knowing when somebody says something but doesn't really mean it 00:27:23.000 |
and being able to detect that and being a good coach, a personal finance coach for them, 00:27:28.000 |
that's somewhere where advisors are going to excel for a long time. 00:27:31.000 |
And so I really like where we're coming to now, where advisors are letting go of, 00:27:38.000 |
well, I need to be the one to place the trades and to do due diligence on all of the indices and so on, 00:27:43.000 |
really sort of like detailed in the weeds labor. 00:27:46.000 |
And they're getting freed up to do that, which means that they are spending more time 00:27:49.000 |
having better, higher-quality conversations and doing more quality planning 00:27:53.000 |
with the people on the other side of the table, with their clients. 00:27:56.000 |
I completely agree with that as far as a lot of the execution and the implementation of portfolios, 00:28:02.000 |
tax-loss harvesting, which has now become automated. 00:28:05.000 |
Back in the day when I was doing it 10 years ago, you had to do it by hand. 00:28:09.000 |
So a lot of the things that we used to have to do by hand as advisors, 00:28:13.000 |
machines can do it much better, more accurate, and I don't have to spend time doing that. 00:28:19.000 |
But not only that, human beings are expensive, an expensive commodity. 00:28:26.000 |
The advisor can spend more time where it's really needed, which is on the behavioral side. 00:28:32.000 |
One of the areas that I actually think advisors don't give themselves enough credit for 00:28:37.000 |
is the communicating of different things to different people. 00:28:43.000 |
So when a person comes to a website, it's very hard for the website to know ahead of time 00:28:49.000 |
that a football analogy would work very well for them. 00:28:53.000 |
But advisors know that different people, they can track those different people's interests 00:28:57.000 |
and know what kind of analogies or explanations are going to really resonate with them 00:29:01.000 |
such that they get a point, whereas a lot of times technology has, 00:29:05.000 |
in terms of communicating things, a one-size-fits-all dimension, 00:29:09.000 |
especially during the educational and onboarding component of advising a client. 00:29:14.000 |
Advisors have a real advantage in that they will communicate more effectively 00:29:18.000 |
and more efficiently with each individual client 00:29:20.000 |
because they can change the way they talk on the fly. 00:29:25.000 |
I was talking with a client several years ago, and I made a golf analogy, 00:29:31.000 |
And I said, "Let's say you went out on the golf course, 00:29:34.000 |
and every time you went out on the golf course, you shot par every single time. 00:29:40.000 |
And I was asking this woman, and she said, "I don't play golf, 00:29:43.000 |
and I have no idea what you're talking about." 00:29:48.000 |
I mean, if we have a questionnaire where it says, you know, "What are your hobbies?" 00:29:51.000 |
and somebody wrote down "golf," I could use that analogy with that person. 00:29:55.000 |
Dan, one of the other things that you do at Betterment, which I find very interesting, 00:29:58.000 |
and I learned a lot from listening to one of your presentations, 00:30:01.000 |
is that when you're talking about goals with clients, in other words, 00:30:06.000 |
what do you want your money to do for you, where do you want to go, 00:30:09.000 |
that people have a really difficult time articulating or defining what their goals are. 00:30:17.000 |
You've come to the realization that most people have common goals, 00:30:21.000 |
and that it's better to have them eliminate goals rather than say what the goal is. 00:30:27.000 |
Can you talk about how you came to that conclusion? 00:30:30.000 |
Yeah, I think there's two inputs to this, or two reasons we ended up here. 00:30:34.000 |
One is just the general idea that we can learn a lot from each other. 00:30:39.000 |
One of my favorite books that I've read over the last year was 00:30:42.000 |
"30 Lessons for Living from the Oldest Americans." 00:30:45.000 |
They speak to 70-, 80-, 90-year-olds about what they think went well in their life 00:30:50.000 |
and what didn't go well, and what they would go back and change 00:30:54.000 |
across career and marriage and being a parent. 00:30:57.000 |
And I think we really need to do a better job of learning from each other 00:31:02.000 |
and using the wisdom that's available to us from a wide array of other people. 00:31:06.000 |
One of the things that we've been doing is looking at how clients use our platform, 00:31:10.000 |
looking at what goals our CFPs recommend to people. 00:31:14.000 |
And rather than trying to reinvent the wheel every single time for each client 00:31:18.000 |
and putting the weight upon them to do it, I said, 00:31:21.000 |
"Well, wait, we know what goals our CFPs are going to recommend 00:31:28.000 |
and we know how they would go through a budgeting plan. 00:31:30.000 |
We know that they're the ones if you are in your mid-20s and not yet married, 00:31:36.000 |
maybe you need to start thinking ahead to the kind of goals that come up later, 00:31:40.000 |
whereas if you're in your mid-50s and you've already kicked the kids out of the house, 00:31:45.000 |
The other element of it, when you start with it, we have a really good, 00:31:50.000 |
kind of like wise set of goals that come up from the experiences of lots of people through time. 00:31:55.000 |
The other element of it is that, as you said, 00:31:58.000 |
people have a hard time coming up with those goals themselves when they're in the future. 00:32:03.000 |
I could go back now and tell 25-year-old me things he should be thinking about, 00:32:08.000 |
but 25-year-old me would feel it was very hard for him to think ahead. 00:32:12.000 |
So rather than have people try and come up with and imagine 00:32:17.000 |
and brainstorm the things that they might need to spend money on over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years, 00:32:24.000 |
"These seem like they're the things that you need to be thinking about. 00:32:27.000 |
Why don't you remove any that you know aren't applicable to you?" 00:32:30.000 |
And we can work through prioritizing the rest of them. 00:32:36.000 |
Generally speaking, people who are given a kind of master list of goals that they remove from 00:32:41.000 |
end up with twice as many goals that they want to be planning for 00:32:45.000 |
compared to somebody who you force to start from scratch. 00:32:48.000 |
So it's a very effective way of helping people identify what goals they think they should be planning for 00:32:56.000 |
And it also means that those people are better set up to invest intelligently for the future. 00:33:00.000 |
Because instead of saying, "Well, I'm going to assess performance by whether or not my account went up and down," 00:33:05.000 |
they say, "Well, I'm going to assess performance based on whether or not I'm on track to hit these personal finance goals that I have." 00:33:12.000 |
One of the questions I have for the future of fintech, using technology to become better investors, 00:33:21.000 |
is the shift that is going on with the—and if you don't mind me saying robo-advisors, 00:33:28.000 |
I don't know how you feel about that phrase being that you— 00:33:34.000 |
Is that, you know, they're set up for young people who are just getting started in, you know, how to do a budget, 00:33:39.000 |
put a few bucks a month away, get them into index funds, all that's very good. 00:33:44.000 |
They're going to need to learn how to invest, and this is a great way of doing it. 00:33:47.000 |
But one of the things that I always found lacking, at least at the beginning of all of the robo-advisors, 00:33:56.000 |
It wasn't really for my generation, which is the baby boomer generation, who are retiring. 00:34:02.000 |
So a lot of the tools that were created were for the accumulation of assets. 00:34:08.000 |
And I believe the next phase of all this is how do you provide tools for people like me, 00:34:16.000 |
who are 60 years old, and the distribution of our assets in retirement? 00:34:21.000 |
It seems to me that that's the next phase of this whole robo-advising world. 00:34:28.000 |
It's definitely going to happen, I would say, for three reasons. 00:34:31.000 |
One is that myself and the current crop of people, we get one year older every year, 00:34:39.000 |
We're good at building for ourselves because we kind of know what we need at this point in our life. 00:34:44.000 |
The closer we get to retirement, the more that we hear about and want those sets of tools for ourselves. 00:34:49.000 |
I already have these discussions with my parents, and understanding what they need is really important. 00:34:55.000 |
On the flip side of the market is the consumers. 00:34:58.000 |
Our parents are very uncomfortable with the idea of just using a digital investment solution 00:35:03.000 |
because they want to be able to talk to somebody, because they want to have them communicate 00:35:07.000 |
in one person that they can go face-to-face to. 00:35:09.000 |
Younger generations, you know, they go both ways. 00:35:12.000 |
I think there's a mix of it, but they're more likely to be comfortable with a purely digital solution 00:35:17.000 |
and less feel like they need a face-to-face contact. 00:35:21.000 |
That might change over time as the cohort gets older. 00:35:24.000 |
Either way, I think that we're going to see greater adoption of sort of decumulation in retirement software 00:35:31.000 |
and planning as people who grew up with computers and who have been using them their entire 00:35:36.000 |
white-collar professional life are going to want that same thing in retirement, 00:35:40.000 |
as opposed to a generation who might not have. 00:35:42.000 |
And I think, to your point, there are more people who are, even right now, 00:35:47.000 |
starting up companies that are focused on retirees to try and help them make those decisions. 00:35:53.000 |
One of the interesting components of it is when you look at a business that has a target customer 00:35:59.000 |
that is accumulating money over time, they kind of have positive growth curves built into their customers. 00:36:04.000 |
A retiree-focused product is looking at specifically customers who are reducing their wealth over time. 00:36:11.000 |
So I think there's going to be an interesting kind of like they're going to want to look at different 00:36:15.000 |
compensation models for that kind of advice to dovetail better with the incentive schemes 00:36:22.000 |
that are present specifically for retirees and how they are going to be spending their money 00:36:29.000 |
I completely agree with you. The company that I'm starting is hourly-based advice, 00:36:34.000 |
where I'm not actually going to be implementing anything. 00:36:37.000 |
I'm just going to be talking with people and getting paid for that intellectual property. 00:36:42.000 |
And when it comes to the actual implementation, use these tools, such as Betterment and others, 00:36:50.000 |
to actually implement the client's portfolios at a very low cost. 00:36:59.000 |
At some point, people need or want that human interaction. 00:37:08.000 |
They want to run it by somebody and get input. 00:37:15.000 |
It doesn't need to be every quarter or every year. 00:37:18.000 |
So the pricing model on that type of advice needs to reflect the way it's used, 00:37:27.000 |
as opposed to, say, just assets under management. 00:37:30.000 |
There's advisors that are charging 1% per year, 00:37:33.000 |
and clients are not utilizing 1% per year worth of advice. 00:37:37.000 |
They might use it one year, but for the next two or three years, they don't need it. 00:37:41.000 |
So I think the pricing models and the way it's delivered, 00:37:44.000 |
there's going to be a separation between the advice givers, who get paid for the advice, 00:37:49.000 |
and the implementers, who get paid for managing the portfolios, 00:37:54.000 |
as a difference in the way that the services are delivered. 00:37:59.000 |
And Betterment has already started to go down this path, 00:38:02.000 |
because now you've implemented a financial planning and advisory model. 00:38:09.000 |
Betterment started out just charging 25 basis points to our retail clients. 00:38:15.000 |
And over the years, we learned that, number one, some people wanted more of a CFP engagement. 00:38:22.000 |
We found that there's a lot of upfront costs. 00:38:24.000 |
So we have to get to know them, gather all their data, understand their circumstances, 00:38:32.000 |
And then they didn't want to start again from scratch later. 00:38:34.000 |
So we started offering what we called Betterment Premium, 00:38:36.000 |
which was 40 basis points instead of 25 basis points. 00:38:39.000 |
And it was an annual fee, so that you were kind of locked in for one year at 40 basis points rather than 25. 00:38:46.000 |
And the uptake on that was just of a very specific person who wanted kind of like that ongoing relationship, 00:38:53.000 |
where they wanted to be able to call us anytime, which was a subset of people. 00:38:57.000 |
I think a lot of people think like you think, which is, well, actually, 00:39:00.000 |
I just have this specific question that I want an answer and some guidance on, 00:39:04.000 |
and I don't want that to translate into this long ongoing relationship. 00:39:09.000 |
So about six months or a year ago, we started offering what we call Advice Packages, 00:39:14.000 |
which are modular little a la carte packages you can buy, like I'm getting married, 00:39:20.000 |
and I want to understand what's involved in merging our finances and the options there, 00:39:24.000 |
or planning for a kid's college education, or optimizing Social Security in retirement. 00:39:29.000 |
These are questions that the person doesn't feel like they need advice tied to their assets in any way, 00:39:34.000 |
but they do want, as you said, a conversation with an expert, somebody to take a look at it, 00:39:39.000 |
check their work, make sure that they're doing the right thing. 00:39:42.000 |
And then once they have that confidence, maybe help them set up a bit of the execution for it, 00:39:46.000 |
maybe set up goals in their betterment account. And we found that that's been very effective. 00:39:50.000 |
The most common package that people buy is actually an initial getting set up and check up package, 00:39:56.000 |
where they're just going to pay us, I think, something like $200 for us to look at their information, 00:40:03.000 |
set up their betterment account the right way, check that everything's right, 00:40:07.000 |
have a conversation with them and their spouse about it, and then they're confident. 00:40:10.000 |
Then they're ready to have it run on the 25 basis points for the rest of the time. 00:40:15.000 |
So I think that that kind of giving people the option to buy the level of service 00:40:19.000 |
and the type of service that they feel is appropriate for what they want is very important. 00:40:23.000 |
I think that there's room for both of them. I think there are people who want to pay an extra 25 basis points 00:40:29.000 |
to have an ongoing relationship and feel like you're going to be monitoring and looking at it, 00:40:33.000 |
and they can call you anytime. But there are also people who know that they have specific, 00:40:37.000 |
discreet questions, and there's no reason for them to have an annual fee to get them answered. 00:40:41.000 |
I think that's great. Giving people options on how they pay for the advice that they're getting is a great concept. 00:40:47.000 |
Again, I used to be on the all asset management side. We used to give some advice. 00:40:52.000 |
Now, just giving people different options as to how they can pay for the advice going forward, 00:40:57.000 |
whether they're going to roll it into an asset management fee, 00:41:00.000 |
whether they're going to just pay for it a la carte, which is what you're talking about. 00:41:04.000 |
They could pay for it through a ongoing retainer that they're paying directly to advisors, 00:41:10.000 |
such as XY Planners, a company that is doing subscription-based type planning. 00:41:16.000 |
I mean, there's lots of different options available to people out there now, and it's just getting better. 00:41:20.000 |
It all better aligns the services that are being provided to the clients with the fees that are being charged to clients. 00:41:29.000 |
I didn't know about your a la carte offering, and I'm happy to hear that it's going well. 00:41:33.000 |
It does seem to be a very good way of doing things. 00:41:36.000 |
The next level in this that I'd like to see at some point is a fee arrangement that is based upon the success of the client. 00:41:45.000 |
So, number one, I wish advisors were a little bit more incentivized to take a look at clients ahead of time and see what value they could add and say, 00:41:53.000 |
"I think that I can wring an extra $50,000 out of your retirement savings if we tweak things and change them. 00:42:02.000 |
And if I help you adhere to this plan over the next 10 years, would you be willing to take me on as kind of a profit share? 00:42:09.000 |
Because I want to see you succeed, and you want to see you succeed. 00:42:12.000 |
So, let's figure out a way where advisors, even going further down that incentive alignment chain, 00:42:18.000 |
where advisors are kind of equity holders in their client's success. 00:42:23.000 |
And I would want to know that I'm going to get paid not only for knowing the financial planning details, 00:42:29.000 |
but actually helping the client execute on those plans. 00:42:33.000 |
Yeah, I don't know how the SEC, the Security Exchange Commission, is going to feel about that. 00:42:40.000 |
Participating in any way in any of the client's profits, aside from AUM, which is a way of participating in their profits, 00:42:47.000 |
is something the regulators have always looked at very negatively, 00:42:53.000 |
because it creates incentives to the advisor to take more risk in the client account. 00:42:59.000 |
I understand what you're saying, to be an equity holder in the client's success, but what's the downside? 00:43:05.000 |
In other words, what if it doesn't work? Are you also, you know... 00:43:17.000 |
My wife happens to be doing one of them, which is sort of doing a career change into being a software engineer. 00:43:24.000 |
And a lot of them are set up where they're going to train you for three to six months, 00:43:29.000 |
and they only get paid when you are making more than $80,000 a year in a tech job, 00:43:35.000 |
and then they can make up to sort of $40,000. 00:43:38.000 |
So I'm seeing more and more incentive-aligned or success-incentive-aligned commercial relationships, 00:43:45.000 |
and it's interesting to think about and ponder how you could legally also do that for personal finance. 00:43:52.000 |
Yeah, so what you're doing is deferring the fee. 00:43:54.000 |
In other words, you know what the fee is going to be. 00:43:56.000 |
You're just deferring it until you have success, and if you don't have success, 00:44:01.000 |
then the fee that you owe me would be less or maybe nonexistent. 00:44:04.000 |
So I could understand that where the fee is up front. 00:44:08.000 |
This is our fee. We're just not going to collect it. 00:44:11.000 |
We're just going to collect a little bit now, and we're going to collect the rest of it later on down the road when you are successful. 00:44:16.000 |
I think that would be an intelligent approach rather than just kind of a profit-sharing 00:44:21.000 |
where we're going to get more if you're more successful later on down the road. 00:44:28.000 |
Dan, generally in the financial services industry, we separate people between delegators and do-it-yourself investors. 00:44:39.000 |
The delegators will go out and hire an advisor, have somebody manage their portfolio 00:44:45.000 |
because their free time is important to them. 00:44:48.000 |
Either they don't want to do it or they can't do it, but to them, they'd rather not do it. 00:44:53.000 |
They'd rather go do something else, and their free time is important. 00:44:58.000 |
The do-it-yourself investors, though, they might like it as a hobby. 00:45:03.000 |
They might prefer to save the money of the advisor because the delegators do have to pay something, 00:45:12.000 |
But on the do-it-yourself side, there's also a cost, and that's the behavioral cost, as we talked about. 00:45:18.000 |
Can you talk about the difference between the delegators, the do-it-yourself investors, 00:45:22.000 |
and how to maybe get more do-it-yourself investors to see that the value of delegating is really worth the cost? 00:45:30.000 |
If you're a delegator or if you're a do-it-yourselfer, it's easy to see the pros for your side of things, 00:45:39.000 |
To be fair, if you're a delegator, maybe you don't really understand everything that's going on in your portfolio, 00:45:44.000 |
and maybe you're not completely on top of it. 00:45:46.000 |
Maybe there's a higher chance that somebody might have you invested in a not-great fund or a high-fee fund, 00:45:53.000 |
so there are costs to being completely hands-off. 00:45:56.000 |
At the same time, there are huge costs, I think, to being very hands-on. 00:46:04.000 |
I don't try and be my own plumber or my own electrician, 00:46:07.000 |
and I think that the people who spend a lot of their own time being their own portfolio manager, 00:46:13.000 |
they might be missing out on that number one. 00:46:15.000 |
They're kind of valuing their free time at zero when they should have a really high value of it, 00:46:20.000 |
and they could be using that time to help other people profitably themselves more. 00:46:26.000 |
I really enjoy building out portfolio management algorithms and working with the teams and designing them well, 00:46:32.000 |
and I kind of think of that as my contribution to society. 00:46:35.000 |
If I'm a liver cell, this is the role that the liver cell plays, 00:46:38.000 |
and I rely upon all the other cells to do right by me. 00:46:42.000 |
And if we try and be all things, and if we try and be a portfolio manager and be our own financial advisor, 00:46:49.000 |
we're probably not going to do as good a job at it as somebody who dedicates their entire life to doing that thing. 00:46:54.000 |
And it also means that we're spending that time not playing with our kids, 00:46:58.000 |
not developing our own skill sets, our own professional network in some way, 00:47:02.000 |
that would be more advantageous to us as a whole. 00:47:05.000 |
So I think that DIYers, they might enjoy it, it might be a good hobby, 00:47:09.000 |
but I think they often miss out on the costs that they don't see, 00:47:13.000 |
that they are paying by virtue of not delegating it. 00:47:17.000 |
I've started to note when people are a little bit cost averse in an irrational way too. 00:47:23.000 |
So I think that Jack Bogle did a great job of making us very conscious of costs, 00:47:30.000 |
but the idea that the cheaper one is definitively better when the difference in costs is so low isn't quite true. 00:47:38.000 |
I have this thing where I cut my hair at home so that I can save money, 00:47:42.000 |
and then I realized that I actually am not as good as a professional at it, 00:47:46.000 |
and I need to go out and get a professional to cut my hair sort of every other month so that it doesn't look too silly. 00:47:51.000 |
And I worry about people a little bit like being too tax averse. 00:47:54.000 |
Even though the costs are small, the costs are something that they can avoid, 00:47:58.000 |
and so they're becoming kind of irrationally cost averse too, 00:48:01.000 |
where they're not considering the value that they get for the cost. 00:48:04.000 |
They're just looking at cost as a way to make the decision. 00:48:07.000 |
Well, Dan, this has been really an interesting discussion with you, 00:48:10.000 |
and I really appreciate you giving us all the insights that you've gathered, 00:48:15.000 |
seeing real people managing their money over at Betterment, 00:48:18.000 |
and we're looking for great things from you in the future. 00:48:22.000 |
Thank you very much for having me. It's been a pleasure. 00:48:25.000 |
This concludes the sixth episode of Bogleheads on Investing. 00:48:31.000 |
Join us each month to hear a new special guest. 00:48:35.000 |
In the meantime, visit bogleheads.org and the Bogleheads Wiki. 00:48:40.000 |
Participate in the forum and help others find the forum.