back to indexWhy You're Not Actually Productive...Dark Side Of Productivity Nobody Talks About | Cal Newport
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Chapters
0:0 Productivity Rain Dances
19:53 How should I take notes during a meeting?
22:16 How could a layman (not a computer scientist) test the veracity of the claims of an AI system or its potential?
27:1 How can I utilize my full-days in my cube with cancelled telework to best make progress on my phantom “part-time” job?
31:8 Can I be a CS instructor with a PhD?
36:0 Can I convince my advisor to “do fewer experiments” for my doctoral thesis?
41:59 College in the modern digital environment
47:45 Managing multiple email inboxes
58:35 Does ChatGPT have “survival instincts”?
00:00:00.700 |
So I recently heard a term that I really liked on the Chris Williamson podcast. 00:00:05.900 |
The term he used was productivity rain dance. 00:00:10.100 |
So I think this idea actually gets at something critical, 00:00:14.100 |
a critical concept about work and productivity and technology. 00:00:16.900 |
It's a concept that I think is exploring because it might explain 00:00:19.800 |
some of both your frustrations and confusions 00:00:26.500 |
So what we'll do is I'm going to load up the clip. 00:00:29.400 |
So we'll hear Chris actually talking about it himself. 00:00:31.800 |
Then we'll get into a little more detail what he's talking about, 00:00:35.400 |
and then give some advice for how to get around it. 00:00:38.700 |
This comes from, I think he was interviewing, 00:00:41.000 |
Chris Williamson was interviewing Sahil Bloom, 00:00:42.800 |
but the person talking here in the clip is Chris himself. 00:00:51.800 |
When I first started the show, I was chatting shit about 00:00:57.900 |
and Ebbinghaus forgetting curves and all of that. 00:01:00.800 |
I've been through the ringer, which is why I'm allowed to say it. 00:01:07.200 |
that it ends up being this weird superstitious rain dance you're doing, 00:01:10.400 |
this sort of odd sort of productivity rain dance 00:01:19.100 |
And you kind of need to go through this process of, 00:01:21.900 |
"Ah, it wasn't the 15 push-ups before I do my calls. 00:01:29.300 |
All right, so that's the clip I wanted to point out there. 00:01:33.600 |
That's one of the studios Chris uses in Austin. 00:01:42.300 |
So I love that idea, this notion of productivity rain dance. 00:01:52.700 |
for people who are watching instead of just listening. 00:02:01.200 |
because I think it's going to help us get closer 00:02:06.500 |
"During my interview review, I asked myself two new questions. 00:02:10.000 |
What do I do that I think is productive but isn't? 00:02:13.300 |
What do I do that I don't think is productive but actually is? 00:02:24.700 |
sitting on email trying to get the unread number down, 00:02:30.800 |
organizing meetups with friends from different social groups, 00:02:36.600 |
After six months of reflecting on my answers, 00:02:40.400 |
I hadn't been properly linking inputs to outcomes. 00:02:43.800 |
I had basically created a productivity rain dance." 00:02:48.000 |
All right, I think this elaboration is useful 00:02:52.500 |
because if we think about the various examples 00:02:55.400 |
that Chris gave here talking about these rain dances, 00:03:03.000 |
like external brains or Ebenhaus forgetting curves, 00:03:07.400 |
these sort of overly wrought productivity systems 00:03:17.200 |
or like trying to get the Slacks all cleared out 00:03:19.800 |
or just sitting at his desk like sort of acting, 00:03:21.900 |
like playing at working because it sort of feels productive. 00:03:27.700 |
under the same term of productivity rain dance. 00:03:30.600 |
And the way he does it and the way I want to focus on here 00:03:44.400 |
you're focusing on the potential for future activity. 00:03:53.500 |
into my productivity equation, that must be good. 00:03:56.500 |
like building a complicated productivity system, 00:04:07.000 |
for finding information or getting things done. 00:04:09.000 |
But what you're not looking at is the output. 00:04:17.100 |
So when you look around the modern office environment 00:04:19.300 |
and see everyone frantically answering emails 00:04:23.300 |
or watch the solo entrepreneur lose a morning 00:04:26.300 |
to optimizing their chat GPT-powered personalized assistant, 00:04:36.000 |
if all these gyrations are actually opening the clouds. 00:04:39.900 |
So the danger with rain dances is that they are easier 00:04:48.600 |
It's easier to sit at your desk and jump on calls 00:04:52.700 |
or answer emails than it is to actually do something hard. 00:04:55.600 |
It's easier to work on your chat GPT-powered assistant. 00:05:01.300 |
You're watching YouTube videos and scripting things together. 00:05:04.000 |
That's easier than actually writing the thing 00:05:07.000 |
that the assistant was going to help you with. 00:05:08.500 |
And because it's easier, we tend to gravitate towards that. 00:05:14.800 |
We're going to gravitate towards what's easier 00:05:16.700 |
versus what's harder if we're not differentiating 00:05:19.600 |
And soon you get yourself to a point where you're super busy, 00:05:28.100 |
"Obsessing over process while being detached from outcomes 00:05:35.200 |
So this is what a productivity rain dance is. 00:05:38.900 |
It's when you focus on inputs and ignore outputs. 00:05:49.200 |
And so paradoxically, the stuff you produce gets worse. 00:05:58.000 |
feel the frustration of their productivity rain dances 00:06:01.500 |
without realizing what that frustration is coming from. 00:06:03.700 |
And there's two responses that I think are natural 00:06:09.500 |
in sort of online discussions of productivity culture. 00:06:13.100 |
The first response is to just demonize work itself. 00:06:15.500 |
Like, I don't know, I'm doing stuff all the time. 00:06:20.800 |
Maybe the problem is like work itself is kind of meaningless. 00:06:29.200 |
So you could just try to demonize work itself 00:06:31.000 |
and lean into some sort of like quiet quitting type mentality. 00:06:40.100 |
is going to just get you into other types of problems. 00:06:47.500 |
ah, the problem here is just thinking about productivity itself. 00:06:51.300 |
So let's just get rid of all attempts to organize my efforts. 00:06:57.100 |
because if you have no attempts to organize your efforts, 00:07:01.500 |
Your life will just become this exhausted slurry 00:07:05.600 |
and trying to make other people's lives easier. 00:07:17.800 |
to turn your attention from inputs to outputs. 00:07:20.400 |
To identify the most valuable thing you do in your job 00:07:31.000 |
Above all else, this should be where your focus is. 00:07:38.000 |
and what is actually helping me do that thing better, 00:07:41.000 |
you know, at a higher level of quality and output, 00:07:43.600 |
the answers to those questions aren't necessarily simple. 00:07:51.400 |
than what productivity rain dances will produce. 00:07:54.200 |
They're different because they're not symbolic. 00:07:59.400 |
They're instead focused on clear, measurable goals 00:08:07.400 |
you begin to build an approach to productivity 00:08:20.900 |
there's only so much YouTube content you could get out of it, 00:08:34.100 |
The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout. 00:08:43.200 |
You can get a free excerpt at calnewport.com/slow. 00:08:52.600 |
So let me give you a couple of specific examples here. 00:09:09.500 |
I have a quota on how many I do at the same time. 00:09:20.000 |
so I only take on one project of this at a time. 00:09:28.900 |
There's no cool notebook and a new pen involved, 00:09:36.200 |
A big concept from my book Slow Productivity. 00:09:47.700 |
and I'll tell you as soon as it gets to active. 00:09:50.800 |
I'm not doing meetings or emails or calls about it. 00:09:57.100 |
generating concurrent administrative overhead. 00:10:05.100 |
that's going to make this way simple for you. 00:10:11.500 |
You can keep track of this even in your head, 00:10:25.300 |
because then I can't get the important stuff done. 00:10:38.300 |
Again, I don't need a special tool for office hours. 00:11:00.300 |
But it forces you to be intentional about your time. 00:11:07.000 |
you have to confront that productivity dragon 00:11:08.800 |
and say, "There's a problem here we need to fix." 00:11:14.500 |
the idea that comes from my sort of original book 00:11:17.700 |
realize that deep work is different than shallow work. 00:11:22.200 |
the stuff that's cognitively demanding that matters, 00:11:27.500 |
"I don't also check my email during that time. 00:11:29.500 |
I don't also have Slack open during that time. 00:11:32.200 |
I realize if I give this work my full attention, 00:11:35.500 |
than if I'm sort of context switching back and forth." 00:11:37.900 |
Like this, that's not a thing you can get a cool app for. 00:11:40.500 |
There is no like back-end reasoning model integration 00:11:50.500 |
when you get away from productivity rain dances 00:12:16.600 |
But for you who cares about doing things well, 00:12:33.700 |
They make you feel like you're doing your part 00:12:49.100 |
are those who are instead down among their crops, 00:13:32.300 |
as opposed to like what's actually being produced. 00:13:33.900 |
Because once you focus on what's being produced, 00:13:36.900 |
the super fancy AI-powered productivity system 00:13:42.500 |
but it's not making you produce more work, really. 00:14:07.900 |
And there's like stuff that you want to have the right tools. 00:15:16.100 |
Like you can't just stop using me for two months. 00:15:23.500 |
when you're recovering from something like this 00:15:25.200 |
is that little things about your posture matter. 00:15:54.500 |
because it's at the forefront of ergonomic solutions. 00:15:56.700 |
It helps you promote better posture and health 00:16:16.400 |
and working your core and supporting yourself, 00:16:19.900 |
but it moves through like a good range of motion. 00:17:51.500 |
So Jesse, I talked to some of those guys over there 00:18:11.000 |
I also want to talk about our friends at My Body Tutor. 00:18:14.100 |
Speaking of trying to do what your body needs, 00:18:18.700 |
I believe is the way if you want to get fitter, 00:18:34.700 |
Let's talk about your eating and health requirements. 00:18:36.700 |
Like let's try to make a plan that makes sense. 00:18:49.200 |
But it's the accountability of checking in every day 00:18:51.900 |
that gets you to actually stick with the plan. 00:19:31.300 |
that's the same guys who are doing the done daily 00:19:36.600 |
being productive about the work that matters. 00:20:13.700 |
So one is the items to discuss Trello column. 00:20:31.500 |
To discuss next time we have this standing meeting. 00:21:01.800 |
All right, so to answer your question, Lindsay, 00:21:19.100 |
I also want to edit the things that are already there. 00:21:21.600 |
if there's something to discuss in this meeting 00:21:26.900 |
If there is not a culture of being on your laptop, 00:21:30.000 |
that's when you use the post-meeting processing block 00:21:41.900 |
You put the waiting to hear backs for those messages. 00:22:03.000 |
but you're processing everything that was discussed 00:22:24.800 |
How could a layman, not a computer scientist, 00:22:27.700 |
test the veracity of the claims of an AI system 00:22:44.500 |
and this is a claim that I think is more generally 00:23:01.200 |
It will come into wherever you're doing your work 00:23:03.200 |
and then that will now be a part of your life. 00:23:05.100 |
You don't have to go out and keep up with it. 00:23:15.400 |
"Look, computer networks are becoming a bigger thing. 00:23:24.200 |
You really need to keep up with what might happen. 00:23:30.000 |
and the way this technology might change your work. 00:23:39.700 |
They're like, "Oh, by the way, we're using email now 00:23:43.600 |
And they say, "You put the person's name in two 00:24:24.100 |
I think they are probably going to be industry specific. 00:24:33.000 |
are going to have their own AI-enabled killer apps. 00:24:59.600 |
Like it keeps everything you say it can't do. 00:25:20.000 |
if you weren't already doing that five years ago 00:25:25.900 |
It's not really your job to be a technology reporter 00:25:42.700 |
he goes on Claude and Perplexe like an hour a day 00:25:56.300 |
I think most people are still using Google for that. 00:26:01.300 |
But yeah, something like that will come around. 00:26:03.900 |
I mean, I think, you know, I've talked about it before. 00:26:11.700 |
It's where all the interesting stuff is going to happen, 00:26:17.200 |
want to have these splashy new releases of new models 00:26:24.700 |
But the impact is not going to come from that. 00:26:29.800 |
And I think a lot of the initial productivity gain, 00:26:48.900 |
will be able to easily use more of the powerful functions 00:26:53.400 |
I think that's where we're going to see the first. 00:26:54.900 |
We're going to talk about this more in the final segment though, 00:27:05.000 |
so I'll be going back to the office five days a week. 00:27:08.100 |
My post-COVID arrangement did have some drawbacks. 00:27:10.900 |
Essentially, I didn't get enough deep work time each day 00:27:13.400 |
as sometimes I would take advantage of my flexibility 00:27:18.800 |
I'll be able to work more on my phantom part-time job. 00:27:27.300 |
would be doing something like a Weekend at Bernie situation. 00:27:36.600 |
You start by identifying like clothes you normally wear 00:27:47.900 |
Step three, you dress the corpse in your clothes 00:27:57.500 |
You could do a little bit of Ferris Bueller days off magic, 00:28:01.000 |
you know, where I think it was hooked up in Ferris Bueller 00:28:05.000 |
when his mom opened the door was on a pulley. 00:28:07.200 |
So it kind of like raised his arm and turned his body 00:28:16.000 |
because he like oddly and spasmodically like lurched 00:28:27.400 |
and the fact that there's snores clearly coming out of a tape deck 00:28:32.500 |
that is going to be at way lower fidelity than real sound 00:28:38.100 |
Come back and check in at the end of the day. 00:28:59.500 |
You'd be very systematic like here's the blocks. 00:29:06.900 |
in terms of keeping track of what you have to do 00:29:12.200 |
So, you know, like what you need to work on that week. 00:29:39.200 |
It could be easy when you're back in the office 00:29:54.900 |
you want to be careful about how you collaborate 00:29:58.300 |
you want to avoid having too much collaboration 00:30:09.000 |
with these like ongoing back-and-forth conversations. 00:33:02.300 |
You want to take an instructor out for coffee 00:33:20.600 |
your plan for moving towards your ideal lifestyle 00:33:38.100 |
Go talk to some real people in this position. 00:33:43.900 |
Not only will this help you avoid you from traps, 00:33:54.500 |
like, "Let me just study this thing I want to do." 00:34:00.100 |
There's a lot you can learn about how that happens. 00:34:29.400 |
plus a different type of like part-time software thing. 00:34:32.700 |
You have to actually get the details to figure this out. 00:34:34.700 |
But the key is don't just wander into this blindly 00:34:38.400 |
with a general idea about what you want to be true. 00:34:48.100 |
a computer science full professor, professor. 00:34:57.000 |
we have a really nice community college around here, 00:35:02.300 |
to do some like CS instructing over the summer." 00:35:04.800 |
I was like, "That probably would be pretty cool." 00:35:09.300 |
He just built a new math and science building. 00:35:27.200 |
I wonder if they have podcasting stuff over there. 00:35:49.100 |
The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout, 00:36:18.700 |
I need a PhD to pursue my career and lifestyle 00:36:24.300 |
My advisor wants me to do lots of experiments 00:36:34.700 |
the slow productivity principles to my situation? 00:36:39.100 |
to allow for experiments only related to my thesis? 00:36:43.500 |
let's put the advisor conversation to the side 00:36:47.400 |
because the first thing I want to reassure you on 00:36:49.300 |
is you can absolutely excel in a doctoral program 00:37:07.500 |
it's, it's, this is not an uncommon occurrence. 00:37:15.100 |
and some of those memories are a little bit hazy for me, 00:37:18.700 |
and I, at some point, I think I was going to Duke. 00:37:27.000 |
because at the time, I guess I was a graduate student 00:37:29.700 |
and there was this phenomenon that I had observed 00:37:33.600 |
So I think she might have been in the same situation 00:37:41.500 |
Like, they become a much better grad student. 00:37:48.200 |
Because you, you get much more constraints on your time. 00:37:52.900 |
Like, there's a lot of constraints on your time. 00:38:02.700 |
just to kind of get warmed up to start working 00:38:07.800 |
And when you have these sudden, like, parenting constraints, 00:38:29.200 |
are so far from the ideal of giving things full focus 00:38:46.600 |
and I'm going to make the most out of when I work. 00:38:53.600 |
you can do less than another, it doesn't matter. 00:39:30.700 |
I was organized and time-blocked and executed. 00:39:42.500 |
it's not actually that hard to be a grad student. 00:40:17.400 |
I'm reading papers in between those experiments. 00:40:45.500 |
just evolve into a more autonomous relationship 00:45:18.600 |
without having to be a super stressed out grind. 00:45:42.100 |
to simpler versions aimed at high school kids. 00:46:02.500 |
"Oh, I want to be a successful college student." 00:46:11.600 |
that there's good ways and bad ways to do things. 00:46:16.500 |
Like, don't just stumble through your experience. 00:46:22.600 |
Some are related to things like physical fitness 00:46:27.000 |
because it's going to change the way you understand 00:46:33.900 |
in theory, I interviewed like Rhodes scholars 00:46:40.300 |
How to Become a Straight A Student is just straight up, 00:46:42.300 |
here's how to take notes, study and write papers. 00:46:47.200 |
It's how to do your academic work like a professional. 00:46:57.200 |
Like that book is just sort of chugged along in the background. 00:47:03.300 |
So at some point you would want them to read that book. 00:47:05.400 |
The fourth book that's relevant is how to be, 00:47:09.500 |
This will be relevant as you go a little bit farther 00:47:16.100 |
ultimately cultivate a career that you're passionate about. 00:47:25.600 |
and it talks about the value of getting good. 00:47:37.400 |
So I'm kind of giving you a long reading list here, 00:47:50.000 |
stories of themselves applying the type of advice 00:47:56.000 |
We can see what it looks like out in the wild. 00:48:03.500 |
Derek says you have stressed that systems and processes 00:48:09.500 |
They make it consistent because work is hard. 00:48:12.800 |
I've always done a new partonian style system, 00:48:23.000 |
tracking, servicing, and reporting on four major grants. 00:48:30.500 |
I've committed to developing my obligation management practice 00:48:36.700 |
including breaks so my brain can be on board. 00:48:39.500 |
On the weekend, I do a weekly plan to be on the offensive. 00:48:44.900 |
have been the one for you, one for me scheduling, 00:48:49.300 |
one for admin and one for application processing. 00:48:55.800 |
although I admit it's turned into a kind of diary. 00:49:01.500 |
and have defined a protocol to track statuses 00:49:04.100 |
and actions taken that I've shared with my team. 00:49:07.900 |
as I have over 50 applications and projects to monitor. 00:49:11.400 |
While this has so far been a story of success, 00:49:13.400 |
no hero's journey is complete without setbacks. 00:49:22.400 |
How can I keep on top of the application project obligations 00:49:25.500 |
while still ensuring I'm staying on top of the emails? 00:49:28.100 |
All right, Derek, I appreciate the case study. 00:49:32.000 |
is this idea that one of the unique attributes 00:49:40.800 |
is the degree to which your job can become like this, 00:49:49.000 |
Because in this age of low-friction digital communication 00:49:55.500 |
And because we can just give you an email address 00:49:59.600 |
and we can just say, just handle all of this. 00:50:04.400 |
and the velocity at which these workloads unfold 00:50:08.700 |
would turn the hair white of someone from like 1985. 00:50:12.000 |
It really can explode the complexity of work. 00:50:22.300 |
Like you have five different departments you oversee 00:50:26.900 |
each of these departments with your own brain, 00:50:30.200 |
and the communication and how you go through your day, 00:50:33.700 |
Derek would be completely swamped without these tools. 00:50:37.100 |
And probably there's been half a dozen people 00:50:41.000 |
who were doing a quarter of what you're doing here, Derek, 00:50:43.000 |
and probably then still had a hard time at it. 00:50:44.900 |
So like you have to have the structure in a way 00:50:47.000 |
that 30 years ago, you didn't have to worry about. 00:50:51.000 |
To get to your kind of question within your case study, 00:50:58.600 |
So in other words, like have fixed times for doing this, 00:51:00.500 |
so I'm not just in my communication boxes all day. 00:51:11.100 |
think about how they're communicating with you. 00:51:16.800 |
which is where when they think about this email address, 00:51:23.100 |
and I am talking to you and asking you something 00:51:25.300 |
and it's rude if you don't get back to me right away. 00:51:33.400 |
and stored and you can go through a lot of it efficiently 00:51:36.800 |
and action can be taken and expectations are appropriate. 00:51:42.600 |
Again, this goes back to my book A World Without Email. 00:51:45.000 |
There could be things like for specific types of queries 00:52:08.800 |
You make sure all the information I need is in there 00:52:11.400 |
and you can watch as things above it get handled 00:52:23.700 |
But when it's no, I'm entering your information to a queue 00:52:29.300 |
and I'm waiting till my thing gets processed. 00:52:32.300 |
Our brain has a different way of categorizing that 00:52:36.700 |
because again, I always argue what people want is 00:52:54.200 |
Hey, here are my open hours for like application questions. 00:53:00.500 |
Just, you know, you can always call me at three and like 00:53:04.200 |
You can defer people, you know, when they try to email you 00:53:09.100 |
That's not your name, but it's like a project or query type 00:53:12.200 |
that defuses the communication channel from a person 00:53:17.300 |
when you send something to, you know, application request 00:53:29.000 |
system where people are going to process these requests 00:53:31.100 |
and then you can have other sorts of protocols. 00:53:38.100 |
When you're ready, you put them in the shared folder. 00:53:42.300 |
So, you know, if you get it in whenever you get it in by 00:53:44.300 |
the next Wednesday or Friday, we'll empty it out. 00:53:47.700 |
And so when people like bothering you like, hey, I want 00:53:51.100 |
You just send them back this like instruction link. 00:53:56.000 |
We'll process it the next Wednesday and Friday. 00:54:00.200 |
You can then track it in the spreadsheet over here. 00:54:06.600 |
people you're communicating with and your communication 00:54:08.900 |
So it's not just ad hoc conversation ongoing. 00:54:11.000 |
It's critical to get away from that, especially in this 00:54:14.200 |
IT departments learned this a long time ago with ticketing 00:54:16.900 |
You cannot just once you have any volume of dealing with 00:54:19.300 |
people and their concerns, it cannot just be ad hoc. 00:54:22.100 |
It cannot just be here's my name at agency.gov. 00:54:25.200 |
Just talk to this like you're talking to me like in the 00:54:29.300 |
So you have my permission to try to build things that 00:54:45.700 |
So this is a time, a time of year, a time in history 00:54:52.500 |
when people worry about their relationship with their 00:55:03.300 |
I'm worried about this or that and I can't get away from 00:55:07.400 |
Maybe you're feeling like you're having a hard time just 00:55:09.900 |
finding the normal types of joys or engagement or there's 00:55:12.200 |
like a particular thing in your life that you can't let 00:55:14.300 |
go of and it's really getting in the way your relationship 00:55:25.900 |
If your knee was hurting, you would go see an orthopedist, 00:55:29.600 |
If your brain is hurting, therapy can help you. 00:55:34.500 |
The problem, you know, when I talk to people who are 00:55:37.600 |
thinking about therapy and they're not going to do it 00:55:40.100 |
or they're hesitating, it's often just the vagueness 00:55:45.000 |
Do I just call like a therapist office like around here, 00:55:48.500 |
especially like these days in DC, you call a therapist 00:55:51.100 |
office like, yeah, we'll have an opening in, let me check 00:55:54.700 |
Like everyone's trying to get into this office, like 00:55:56.400 |
it's really difficult and you feel bad for even asking. 00:55:58.800 |
What we need is like an easier on-ramp into the world 00:56:04.200 |
BetterHelp is fully online, making therapy affordable 00:56:07.800 |
and convenient, serving over 5 million people worldwide. 00:56:11.300 |
You can access a diverse network of more than 00:56:14.400 |
30,000 credentialed therapists with a wide range of 00:56:17.200 |
specialties and you can easily switch therapists anytime 00:56:20.800 |
So by leveraging the online delivery, it's a much more 00:56:24.300 |
It's, you can find a therapist that they don't have to 00:56:32.800 |
Now is the time of the new year to repair your relationship 00:56:39.100 |
Visit betterhelp.com/deepquestions to get 10% off your 00:56:44.800 |
That's betterhelp, H-E-L-P.com/deepquestions. 00:56:51.400 |
So I want to talk about our friends at Shopify. 00:56:53.800 |
I know a lot of people in the same game of podcast and 00:57:01.300 |
And by far the most consistent choice they use of software 00:57:12.500 |
If you want to sell things, it is the technology that 00:57:16.600 |
My friends and podcasts sell things online, but people 00:57:32.400 |
They are the home of the number one checkout on the 00:57:34.800 |
planet, including ShopPay, which boosts convergence up 00:57:40.600 |
That means way less carts going abandoned and many more 00:57:44.500 |
So if you're into growing your business, your commerce 00:57:46.700 |
platform better be ready to sell wherever your customers 00:57:51.300 |
That's a phrase I just made up right on the fly, because 00:57:55.400 |
On the web, in your store, in their feed, and everywhere 00:58:00.100 |
I'm just, this is just off the top of my head right now. 00:58:10.700 |
Like you got to use Shopify if you're selling stuff. 00:58:13.600 |
So upgrade your business and get the same checkout that 00:58:16.400 |
everyone I know who sells things online uses and that is 00:58:19.600 |
Shopify. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at 00:58:28.700 |
Go to shopify.com/deep to upgrade your selling today. 00:58:35.200 |
We like to do tech corners when possible in the final 00:58:39.300 |
That's where I put on my computer scientist hat and we 00:58:42.800 |
talk about tech and the way it's affecting us in various 00:58:48.100 |
My kicking off point is I want to react to a recent Joe 00:58:52.400 |
Rogan podcast episode where he was talking about chat GPT 00:58:57.100 |
and he says the following sort of in passing but let's 00:58:59.900 |
listen to it and then I'm going to react to it. 00:59:06.900 |
Is that programmed in or is that just a thing that it 00:59:10.000 |
understands when it's looking at so large language models 00:59:12.800 |
taking in all the information that's available on the 00:59:14.900 |
internet. So it's like looking at patterns and the survival 00:59:24.200 |
That's why death is so scary and war is so scary and 00:59:29.700 |
But yeah, they want to be happy if they could, you know, 00:59:33.200 |
yeah, but this this also transfers on to the things that 00:59:37.700 |
we create and so we create them with this understanding 00:59:41.500 |
of how we operate and it's a better version of us. 00:59:47.400 |
The real scary thing is does it also have the instincts 00:59:51.200 |
of success? Does it also have the instincts of acquiring 00:59:54.700 |
resources and power because that that's where it gets 01:00:02.500 |
I think is a sentiment you hear often when people are 01:00:04.700 |
encountering these ever more impressive language model 01:00:08.700 |
based AI tools like chat GPT, which is like wow, these 01:00:20.700 |
He had seen some quotes somewhere about chat GPT trying 01:00:23.800 |
to make copies of itself, which he interpreted to be like 01:00:26.800 |
it has a survival instinct, but it says what if it has 01:00:29.500 |
What if it has an instinct to get rid of humans Etc. 01:00:35.200 |
Because the there's a misunderstanding plus an actual fear. 01:00:40.600 |
So I want to talk about the misunderstanding here. 01:00:42.800 |
So I'm going to make you feel a little better and then 01:00:45.000 |
I'm going to talk about the real fear is going to make 01:00:46.900 |
So I'm going to temporarily make you feel better about 01:00:48.900 |
AI and then I'm going to sort of justify some of Joe's 01:00:52.300 |
fears and in a more technically accurate way, which might 01:00:56.100 |
So can the tools like chat GPT in its current form have 01:01:02.300 |
The answer is no, no, they can't have instincts. 01:01:06.400 |
They can't do things the right way to understand something 01:01:11.800 |
like chat GPT is the following the main technical engine 01:01:15.900 |
of a chat bot like chat GPT is a large language model. 01:01:22.000 |
We got GPT 4 and GPT-O, GPT-O mini and the GPO 2, but 01:01:29.900 |
The right way to think about a large language model. 01:01:35.000 |
I think a good way to think about it is I don't know 01:01:37.100 |
if you remember this Jesse, but when we were kids in 01:01:39.400 |
the 80s and Play-Doh was like a big thing, right? 01:01:42.500 |
You could buy the Play-Doh factory where you would 01:01:46.500 |
feed Play-Doh into one side and you would turn a crank 01:01:50.400 |
and it would pull it through and you could put a couple 01:01:54.800 |
So maybe like you went through a squisher and then 01:01:57.200 |
it went through something that that cut things into 01:02:00.300 |
like spaghetti strands, you know, and then the final 01:02:03.600 |
thing might take those spaghetti strands and like 01:02:06.400 |
So it's like a star shape and then the end you would 01:02:08.300 |
get like spaghetti strands of the original colors 01:02:12.800 |
So it's like pushing the Play-Doh through several 01:02:15.900 |
layers of things that like modifies the Play-Doh 01:02:18.700 |
and you could change what those things are basically 01:02:23.100 |
This is the architecture of large language models. 01:02:25.300 |
They're a feed-forward architecture or the information 01:02:30.800 |
I mean it's embeddings of the text but like the text 01:02:33.200 |
that it's reacting to gets pushed from one layer to 01:02:42.600 |
The Play-Doh goes through the squisher then it gets 01:02:45.300 |
changed to spaghetti strands then it goes through 01:02:48.100 |
So it gets pushed through these layers as it gets 01:02:50.500 |
pushed through these layers more each layer does 01:03:00.000 |
Let's I'm saying this all using non-technical terminology 01:03:03.000 |
it labels it with stuff that the next layer can then 01:03:05.200 |
use and look up other patterns and connect it to it, 01:03:10.800 |
And at the very end so I imagine like someone's turning 01:03:14.000 |
this crank that's pulling this digital Play-Doh through 01:03:16.200 |
this factory at the very end what comes out is like 01:03:20.700 |
Now what it is with a chatbot is actually going to 01:03:23.000 |
be a part of a word or a word or a group of words 01:03:26.600 |
I mean technically it's like a probability distribution 01:03:28.900 |
over this but it's like a text new text output. 01:03:32.200 |
So that's what the large language model does. 01:03:34.700 |
Things get pushed through the language model itself 01:03:37.200 |
just like the Play-Doh factory doesn't change once 01:03:42.100 |
It doesn't remember last time they put red Play-Doh 01:03:45.800 |
through here and we're going to remember that and 01:03:49.600 |
No, it's the exact same setup every time stuff goes 01:03:52.300 |
through all this different is the type of Play-Doh 01:03:59.400 |
So you have to have some sort of control program 01:04:04.500 |
So it's like a with most chatbots like a relatively 01:04:06.800 |
simplistic control program that like takes the text 01:04:09.300 |
you typed in and puts it into the language model 01:04:12.500 |
and the language model spits out some words and 01:04:14.300 |
typically because it's autoregressive it'll put 01:04:17.700 |
So now it's slightly longer and they'll do it again 01:04:19.400 |
and they'll put those new words on I'll do it again. 01:04:21.000 |
So it's kind of running the machine until it has 01:04:23.400 |
If you're doing different media formats, there's 01:04:27.000 |
So like if you're sending a photo to chat GPT, the 01:04:29.800 |
control program will take the photo and actually 01:04:31.700 |
give that to a photo recognizer program that will 01:04:35.600 |
then describe that photo in words and then it will 01:04:37.600 |
take those words and connect them to your original 01:04:39.400 |
prompt and then we'll run the normal chat GPT control 01:04:43.100 |
program to like ask that question and or if you're 01:04:45.800 |
generating a photo, that's not a language model. 01:04:47.700 |
That's going to be a different type of model. 01:04:49.000 |
But this is basically how this how this works. 01:04:51.000 |
So the the factory can produce really cool Play-Doh 01:04:55.200 |
on the other end, but the factory itself doesn't 01:05:02.900 |
It's a bunch of plates that you're pushing Play-Doh 01:05:05.100 |
through. If you really want something to have 01:05:07.800 |
instincts like a survival instinct, you'll need 01:05:09.600 |
some notion of sentience which requires a combination 01:05:12.500 |
of four things understanding of like the world 01:05:17.400 |
You have to have some sort of actual like intellectual 01:05:22.200 |
You have to keep track of like your understanding 01:05:24.300 |
of the world that evolves as you get new information. 01:05:26.500 |
So you need something to be reacting to you need 01:05:31.700 |
So there's these intentions have to come from 01:05:33.200 |
somewhere and you need actuation the ability to 01:05:36.600 |
actually then take actions either in the digital 01:05:39.500 |
or physical world, you know based on the combination 01:05:43.000 |
That's how you have something like a sentience. 01:05:46.900 |
as basically just being the understanding part. 01:05:48.800 |
It has this understanding built in of lots of 01:05:53.100 |
different textual things and that's how it spits 01:05:55.100 |
out the plate on the other end can be a really 01:05:59.900 |
interesting way the play-doh that came in the front 01:06:09.000 |
So you have to explicitly say I want to survive 01:06:12.100 |
There's no thinking there you need actually some 01:06:14.600 |
sort of program that's like is this action going 01:06:17.000 |
to help me survive or not and then it needs the 01:06:21.100 |
That would be a completely different component. 01:06:23.400 |
So there's no way that as architected right now 01:06:26.700 |
as sort of one of these standard chatbots can 01:06:32.700 |
It's just a feed-forward play-doh factory that 01:06:37.800 |
So no making the model bigger and better trained 01:06:43.400 |
just makes the play-doh come out look fancier, 01:06:49.400 |
network with no changeable state and no recursion 01:07:05.000 |
The chat GPT is just a factory defined by these 01:07:08.200 |
models are just trillions of numbers and tables 01:07:12.200 |
But where Joe is kind of right is the hard part 01:07:20.300 |
actually actuation the hard parts the understanding 01:07:31.400 |
program those other three things pretty simplistically. 01:07:37.900 |
I hard-coded in I when I'm evaluating actions, 01:07:42.700 |
I want to do my goal is to like not be erased 01:07:54.800 |
internet. It can run commands and run scripts 01:08:21.600 |
it could start talking so the control programs 01:09:10.900 |
simulation and its own drive and its actuation 01:09:18.100 |
the money isn't not trying to build a sentient 01:09:25.600 |
helping people use advanced graphing features 01:09:43.400 |
letting that loose because I have this theory. 01:09:48.600 |
to get the first uncomfortable AI by uncomfortable. 01:09:55.700 |
It's going to be the combination of relatively 01:10:18.400 |
effect where simple control logic plus complex 01:10:46.100 |
based on what Plato came out deciding whether 01:11:11.500 |
drives and actuation is just being programmed 01:11:51.000 |
how the drive control works, how the actuation 01:12:15.500 |
Yeah, I'm going to listen out again for sure. 01:12:17.800 |
I should do some more stuff complicated world. 01:12:34.500 |
productivity rain dances, you'll also like my 01:12:49.300 |
You know on on one level my my subject matter 01:12:52.200 |
is human finitude limitation how we get things 01:12:56.100 |
done and enjoy life in this situation of being