back to indexNikesh Arora | All-In Summit 2024
Chapters
0:0 The Besties welcome Nikesh Arora
2:56 How to build great businesses, lessons from his time at Google
6:30 Lessons from working with Masa at SoftBank, risk tolerance
11:51 Scaling Palo Alto Networks, handicapping cybersecurity, M&A strategy
20:2 State of cyber threats
24:23 Age of AI: How agents will change consumer apps, how AI is impacting cybersecurity
00:00:00.000 |
Our next speaker is actually fortunate enough to have had seen his brand name turn into a verb. 00:00:06.480 |
One of the probably most prolific executives in this current generation is Nikesh Arora. 00:00:12.320 |
The big daddy of the cyber security space. These guys are really at the forefront of the industry. 00:00:16.240 |
There are very few people who consistently, time and time again, 00:00:19.760 |
find the way to just persevere, be relevant. Nikesh is one of those people. 00:00:24.720 |
This is a man who has tremendous insight into technology. He helped turn Google into the 00:00:28.960 |
dominant player in search. This is the most innovative industry in the world. We're constantly 00:00:33.120 |
paranoid from an innovation perspective. I've got to be on my toes because once we figure out how 00:00:37.200 |
they did it last time, they're trying a new way to do it next time. This is the country where your 00:00:42.000 |
dreams come true and if you go around the world and you ask young people where do they want to go, 00:00:46.000 |
they'll still want to come to America. I think this is one of the most successful democracies 00:00:50.320 |
in the world. This is where capitalism thrives. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, Nikesh Arora. 00:00:55.840 |
My guy. Appreciate you. Thanks for coming. David? David? How are you? What's up, Ruskin? 00:01:06.720 |
Let me just do this intro properly. Look at all the phones go up. Wow. 00:01:17.360 |
You joined Google in 2004, although there was a nice prolific buildup to that career, 00:01:22.240 |
but you joined in 2004. You left in 2014. You started in ad sales and you left as the SVP 00:01:30.240 |
and chief business officer of Google. Revenue went from three billion. I checked this actually just 00:01:35.280 |
to make sure because it's staggering, to 66 billion when you left. Then you, because we're 00:01:40.880 |
going to talk about that, and then you got seduced to go work with Masayoshi-san at SoftBank where 00:01:45.920 |
you were vice chairman and president. Yeah. That must've been interesting. Jason has a look at 00:01:50.480 |
Jason. He's looking at the top. So many good questions. But then you left. Yes. And look, 00:02:00.160 |
I've known you for a long time. We've been very good friends for a long time. I was 00:02:03.120 |
surprised because I got, you know, you called and you're like, Hey, I'm going to be seat chairman 00:02:07.680 |
and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. And I had known what it was, but I didn't really understand. 00:02:14.160 |
And then meanwhile, in the last, what's it been? Seven years? Six and a half. Six and a half years. 00:02:18.480 |
Market cap is up by 5X. You took a $20 billion company. It's 110 billion as it stands. I think 00:02:24.000 |
you've tripled revenue. So this is clearly no longer luck. So now you're in the skill camp. 00:02:32.800 |
Oh, good. I'm in founder mode? No, founder mode is cocaine. I was wondering when that was going to 00:02:37.920 |
start. No, he has to fly to Europe. You cannot bring founder mode. There are no waffles on the 00:02:46.480 |
plane. You can get founder mode in Europe though. Let's just start and just, um, actually let's just 00:02:54.080 |
start there. Okay. Okay. Um, you've seen a lot of different executives. You've played a lot of 00:02:58.560 |
different roles. You've seen founders. You've advised a lot of founders. Tell us what, what, 00:03:03.120 |
what takes, what, what does it take to be successful? And you can use these labels or 00:03:08.400 |
not founder mode, manager mode, whatever it is, but what does it take to figure things out 00:03:12.480 |
consistently? Look, um, I think you already put that out there, didn't you? Did you say that, 00:03:18.480 |
uh, if you think about building great businesses and the center of great businesses, great products, 00:03:24.800 |
if you don't have a great product, you're not going to build a great business for the long 00:03:27.840 |
term. And this is something, and I know Sergei's here. I learned that with Larry and Sergei at 00:03:31.520 |
Google, that they were obsessed about product on a constant basis. So when I came to my job, 00:03:36.080 |
I said, the first thing I'm going to focus on is build a great product. But I think it's slightly 00:03:40.320 |
different in consumer enterprise. In consumer, you build a great product, you find the flywheel, 00:03:44.640 |
you can try and figure out how the flywheel continues to work. In enterprise, eventually 00:03:48.240 |
you take a great product and you've got to figure out how to get it out to all the amazing customers 00:03:51.760 |
out there. So I think it requires a tremendous amount of focus, tremendous amount of, um, 00:03:58.160 |
sort of detail inspection. But I think at the same time, you've got to find a way of taking 00:04:03.920 |
lots of amazing people, getting them on the same train and getting them to execute at scale. 00:04:09.680 |
It's impossible for one human being to do that at scale. So you have to have a lot of people doing 00:04:13.760 |
it amazingly well. That's the trick. Tell us about that first, that first story or that version of 00:04:19.120 |
that story inside of Google, because you were there for a long time and a lot of good things 00:04:22.080 |
happened. What was that like? What did you learn? Look, Google has one of the best flywheels there 00:04:27.600 |
is in the consumer space, right? So we were blessed that we were working with a product that 00:04:32.640 |
nobody had ever seen. Everybody wanted to use. It's funny, like every one of us worries about 00:04:36.880 |
customer support. You didn't need it. It was an amazing, simple product, easy to use, free. And 00:04:41.600 |
our job was to go monetize advertising. So part of that was how do you scale that around the world 00:04:47.360 |
in every country, where there's a single product with a single use case, where you have to see how 00:04:52.480 |
you can attract lots of advertisers. And that requires building a system. How you get thousands 00:04:56.400 |
of people around the world to build a system and execute. So you build a system, you build a 00:05:01.680 |
programmatic system, you look at stuff, you inspect, and you hire really amazing people who 00:05:05.520 |
go out and do their best that they can. And when you're doing that, and the thing is growing so 00:05:09.360 |
fast, what is the, what has to happen for you to go from running Europe, I think is how you started, 00:05:14.400 |
to being the head of business there? What does that take? Well, you know, it was such an amazing 00:05:20.640 |
juggernaut that you had to figure out how to differentiate. And what is interesting is when 00:05:24.160 |
I joined, Google was 24% of global revenue. When I moved to the US, it was 49%. 00:05:33.520 |
Yes. And it was one of the few tech companies in the world whose European revenue was higher than 00:05:38.080 |
the US revenue for a brief period of time. So I think somebody noticed. 00:05:42.080 |
And what happens, you get the call and you're like, we need you to move to America? 00:05:46.000 |
Yeah, I was on a trip to Russia trying to open an office there, which had to be shut down at 00:05:52.640 |
some point in time for a bit. And I got a call from Eric Schmidt and he said, your boss is retiring, 00:05:58.720 |
we'd like you to come here and do what he does. And so what then motivates you to leave a job 00:06:07.600 |
like that? Because you're kind of then at the top of the pinnacle, you see everything, 00:06:11.840 |
I guess I wanted more, I wanted to do more, get involved sort of the overall business, 00:06:19.680 |
wanted to do some product work as well. I didn't have product jobs at Google, 00:06:22.880 |
I was seen as a sales guy. At Palo Alto, all I do is product for the first six years of my life. 00:06:27.840 |
So to be able to go out and do that differently, but I had to take a brief sojourn to 00:06:32.160 |
my Japanese trip, lots of good sushi and lots of- 00:06:35.120 |
It was a great vacation, let's talk about it. 00:06:38.400 |
Well, a great search. But I mean, this was the largest venture fund ever created, 00:06:44.480 |
a hundred billion dollars. And you have this mercurial, brilliant individual, Masayoshi-san, 00:06:51.840 |
and he starts placing bets in a way that we've never seen. 00:06:55.280 |
What was the genius in that? And what was the Achilles heel? 00:07:00.320 |
Look, Masa is one of those people whose risk appetite grew as he grew older. 00:07:07.920 |
And you mentioned that because that is a very unique thing, it usually goes the other way. 00:07:14.240 |
I have two young kids, and every time, and I'm constantly trying to de-risk them, 00:07:17.600 |
saying, "Hey, be careful when you cross the road, be careful when you do this." 00:07:20.960 |
You get married, people tell you, "Be careful, buy a house, go settle down." 00:07:24.160 |
So we're constantly de-risking our lives as we get older, on a constant basis. 00:07:28.400 |
All of us do it, we don't realize we do it, right? 00:07:31.200 |
Masa's the opposite. The older he gets, like, "Come on, let's go all in." 00:07:36.080 |
He's like you guys, right? He wants to go all in. 00:07:39.200 |
So he's like, "Nikesh, I have a great idea. We'll put a billion, we'll borrow 19 billion." 00:07:44.320 |
I'm like, "How does that work again? All you got is a billion." 00:07:46.720 |
"Yeah, I have one great idea, a billion in, 19 billion." 00:07:49.520 |
That's what he did. That's how he built SoftBank Japan. 00:07:52.000 |
I think he was the richest man in the world for 88 days in the last internet boom. 00:08:04.480 |
- Maybe walk us through some of those bets, because there was Nvidia, there was Arm. 00:08:08.880 |
- All those happened after I left, but that's if I can... 00:08:31.520 |
- It's better than a billion. Beats a billion. 00:08:35.360 |
- Yeah, it's greater than a billion, last I checked, yes. 00:08:38.560 |
And when I met him the first time after we'd done a deal at Google, we met when he was... 00:08:44.240 |
He came to see Larry, Sergey, and Eric and said, "I'd like to do a search deal with you. 00:08:52.560 |
I tried to explain to him there's something called... 00:08:55.520 |
You can't have two search engines both powered by Google in Japan. 00:08:58.800 |
And to his credit, he said, "You can, as long as the advertising systems are different." 00:09:01.520 |
So if you look, in Japan today, Yahoo Japan is powered by Google, 00:09:05.120 |
and Google's powered by Google, but the advertising systems are different, 00:09:13.360 |
He was going to buy a lot of companies in telecom and get to $100 billion in EBITDA, 00:09:17.040 |
which at 10 times EBITDA would be a trillion dollars. 00:09:21.700 |
- So then that kind of fizzled out. He lost interest after a while. 00:09:24.720 |
And then his next idea was to raise, I think it was 1, 2, 3, 4, 100, 200, 300, and 400. 00:09:32.560 |
- Yes, for the Vision Fund, so that'd make a trillion. 00:09:36.560 |
- Hold on a second, we're doing that, yeah, that's a trillion dollars. 00:09:41.920 |
- And then, like, he had this whole portfolio of companies, 00:09:43.760 |
and there's a bunch of Japanese analysts who'd sit in the office, 00:09:49.040 |
And eventually, they took all the business that we had 00:09:51.280 |
and forecast their fee cash flow at the end, where the DCF was a trillion. 00:10:02.880 |
So he thought Arm was going to be a trillion-dollar company. 00:10:08.080 |
Do you think it was the mistake, not the mistake, 00:10:11.120 |
is it about being financially oriented as opposed to product or impact oriented? 00:10:17.200 |
Is there an orientation thing there where if money is the goal, 00:10:27.680 |
But, you know, he was not financially oriented as much as he went by his gut. 00:10:31.200 |
It's like many founders, when he believed in it, he was all in. 00:10:40.560 |
One thing I did learn from, which is very fascinating, is, you know, 00:10:43.760 |
like a person who's like used to wanting to get things right, 00:10:49.120 |
And then it'd be one investment, I'd say, "Oh, shit, that's not going right. 00:10:51.120 |
"Let me go and talk to the company, help them, help them fix it. 00:10:55.440 |
He says, "Nikesh, you're spending too much time with the mistake." 00:11:02.880 |
"with a company that's growing it three times, 00:11:06.000 |
"We'll make our money up six times with that company 00:11:07.840 |
"instead of you trying to fix that from half back to one." 00:11:24.480 |
It's hard to say, "Oh my God, I made a mistake." 00:11:39.600 |
And the cutthroat nature of this with the power law 00:11:47.040 |
is much, much more likely than getting a zero to a one. 00:12:24.560 |
What you're seeing here is the economic principle 00:12:44.320 |
And you said you've spent the last six and a half years 00:12:51.440 |
Like, did you go all in on one or two big things? 00:13:01.600 |
Look, it's a $180 billion industry on an annual basis. 00:13:05.360 |
The largest market share is one and a half percent, 00:13:37.680 |
the more data is there for people to take away. 00:13:39.200 |
So you're not going to have a demand problem. 00:13:47.200 |
Say, "Well, everybody sort of lived in their swim lane." 00:14:00.000 |
That was our sort of plastics moment, cloud and AI. 00:14:02.560 |
So we said, "Let's not go reinvent the past." 00:14:13.280 |
assuming everything around you is going to stay the same. 00:14:17.600 |
"and assume that 50% of the world is in the public cloud. 00:14:30.320 |
We went and looked at how everybody does M&A and who failed. 00:14:36.080 |
- Well, we learned that things traded a price for a reason. 00:14:45.840 |
"I can take $200 million and clean it up and fix it." 00:14:54.160 |
- So why don't we buy the guy who's worth a billion dollars? 00:15:03.760 |
And we're probably going to slow them down a little bit 00:15:06.320 |
So we'll compensate for slowdown with go-to-market 00:15:10.320 |
that we bring to them and we'll let them lose. 00:15:19.120 |
"I'm the senior vice president of blockchain, cloud, and AI." 00:15:27.840 |
I said, "That's the guy you're going to work for." 00:15:50.560 |
watching that team play and how they manage talent 00:16:06.000 |
And we still possibly have the most number of founders 00:16:12.320 |
So when you buy a company, isn't the typical motivation, 00:16:16.480 |
And then most people just vamoose, they're gone. 00:16:19.600 |
If you come to Palo Alto, we'll take your equity away first. 00:16:22.720 |
We'll say, I'm gonna give you back one and a half times 00:16:25.360 |
your equity if you stay with me for three years. 00:16:30.640 |
So the founder owns, let's say it's $100 million, 00:16:43.520 |
you're buying a half a product and a full vision. 00:16:48.960 |
- I lose the vision part of it, I get half a product. 00:16:52.480 |
How much of the success is predicated on the engine 00:17:00.080 |
How much do you come in and then the founder feels 00:17:02.480 |
like there's an interference model now that's like, 00:17:07.680 |
- So what happens is like, look, the customers 00:17:11.280 |
That's why everybody lives in their swim lanes. 00:17:14.560 |
To be in multiple swim lanes is multiple people saying, 00:17:21.680 |
And your badge of honor is you're in the top right, 00:17:35.040 |
Ah, well, you're gonna sell me some good and some bad. 00:17:41.840 |
So for that, we need the founders building the product 00:17:44.880 |
Yeah, they do feel a little, sometimes they feel 00:17:49.360 |
I had a wonderful conversation with a founder, 00:17:57.600 |
Paid the founder a reasonable amount of money, 00:18:15.520 |
He's like, yeah, but when I came here with my company, 00:18:25.360 |
I said, who decides what, and you get to stay in it. 00:18:28.880 |
Who decides what color the walls are gonna be painted? 00:18:38.240 |
He really liked us, and he stayed for three years. 00:18:51.520 |
and design a product strategy we both agree on. 00:18:56.240 |
until we have a joint agreed product strategy 00:19:04.080 |
that they claim is part of their engine of success. 00:19:14.800 |
- The biggest contrast for us is we like to buy a product 00:19:18.800 |
which we can integrate and sell to customers. 00:19:47.200 |
merge them, and I can make it worth 16 times. 00:19:50.000 |
If you as an investor can buy both our companies 00:20:05.600 |
how they're evolving with artificial intelligence. 00:21:05.840 |
which used to take 30 or 50 days to figure out. 00:21:12.000 |
was some kid sitting in their parents' basement 00:21:39.440 |
"everybody who uses the Exchange server is fair game. 00:21:48.560 |
"I can have access to every dissident's email," 00:21:54.240 |
"If I got one data, why bother hacking one person? 00:22:10.160 |
"I can get data about other people that I want." 00:22:13.040 |
So that became a bit of a nation-state activity. 00:22:15.680 |
Now, cybersecurity, offense is way easier than defense. 00:22:18.560 |
For defense, you've got to write 100% of the time. 00:22:27.920 |
nation-states started cultivating these entrepreneurs 00:22:31.920 |
"Listen, that's how you keep your skills up to date. 00:22:34.080 |
"If you go after stuff, we'll look the other way 00:22:37.440 |
"because if we need you, we'd have found a way." 00:22:42.960 |
"Wait, there's tremendous economic value now in hacking." 00:22:47.120 |
People wanna say, and then there's like a magic number. 00:22:51.520 |
because that's director's liability, insurance. 00:23:03.440 |
- Which is purely working backwards from that policy. 00:23:07.440 |
- So there's about $2 billion that's been paid 00:23:12.640 |
- If you think, here's the anatomy of a hack, right? 00:23:15.840 |
Somebody says, "I found a SolarWinds server, it's hackable." 00:23:18.480 |
So some set of guys go quickly and plant themselves 00:23:21.200 |
at 1,800 SolarWinds servers, which are exposed to the internet. 00:23:24.240 |
Then there's a separate industry sub-segment. 00:23:26.800 |
They sell it to say, "Listen, I'm only in the seeding business. 00:23:39.840 |
Then there's a third set of people who are payment clearing. 00:23:51.760 |
- Everywhere where extradition treaties are light. 00:23:57.520 |
foreign nationals that move to jurisdictions to do this? 00:24:23.360 |
- It's gonna be okay. - Let me shift the conversation. 00:24:34.160 |
You've invested in a bunch of companies as well. 00:24:45.760 |
I think there's a very well-established expectation out there. 00:24:54.560 |
Cost to deploy, cost to train will all come down. 00:24:58.480 |
So the good news is we seem to have established 00:25:06.000 |
some sort of economic rationality to prevail. 00:25:14.640 |
he keeps them honest and fair everywhere around there. 00:25:20.720 |
as you get into the application of these models, 00:25:22.480 |
I think the world changes in consumer enterprise. 00:25:24.880 |
In consumer, you gotta figure out how these models 00:25:43.920 |
and our hooks, those services having to us are so strong 00:25:53.200 |
it's not useful unless you can train on my data. 00:25:56.800 |
And you'll discover 90% of companies have bad data. 00:26:00.720 |
90% of companies, like how do you solve this problem? 00:26:04.240 |
I don't know how I fixed the last firewall that broke down. 00:26:16.160 |
on the enterprise side, which is gonna happen. 00:26:30.000 |
But it's very hard to say, "My firewall broke down. 00:26:36.240 |
a lot of companies would have to do a lot of work 00:26:44.160 |
On the consumer side, it's gonna be very interesting. 00:26:46.160 |
I think we can all imagine a future which says, 00:26:48.000 |
"Hey, my favorite phone or favorite hardware device 00:27:00.080 |
Now you just, in your brain, say, "Wait, wait, wait, wait. 00:27:16.000 |
Try telling any of the existing app guys that, 00:27:28.240 |
you're just handing over your business to them, yeah. 00:27:36.720 |
and you'll have new companies that are formed, 00:27:39.760 |
It's like, you know, half your fortune is better than none. 00:27:45.840 |
"Listen, I only have an agent that does airline bookings. 00:27:53.920 |
So I think there's gonna be much more upheaval 00:27:56.640 |
in the consumer space than any one of us realizes. 00:27:59.440 |
I think 5 million apps will be redesigned in the next 10 years. 00:28:05.200 |
The ones that wanna survive will do that first? 00:28:14.800 |
Can you try going to any of these large branded apps 00:28:16.880 |
that sit on everybody's phone and say, "Listen." 00:28:36.320 |
phishing, tricking people come into play these days? 00:28:40.480 |
And how much of that is going to be exacerbated 00:28:58.800 |
They said, "Listen, we're gonna penetrate your defenses. 00:29:08.240 |
drops a bunch of USB sticks with little tape on the sticks, 00:29:27.760 |
you know, battering ram and break your door down. 00:29:32.720 |
And they possibly said something more colorful 00:29:46.400 |
Yeah, so it's like, these are not hard attacks. 00:29:54.640 |
"Please take a picture of your fluffy pet at home 00:30:02.640 |
Oh my God, you've seen the beautiful fuzzy pictures 00:30:11.680 |
Oh no, no, you have to actually add to your username. 00:30:27.520 |
huge cybersecurity sensors to block this stuff. 00:30:52.720 |
And Jamaat searched for himself and there wasn't any. 00:31:06.080 |
How do you figure out tomorrow if something is real? 00:31:08.720 |
Well, look, there's a huge conversation going on 00:31:10.880 |
that there needs to be some form of regulation 00:31:13.760 |
that insists that watermarking needs to happen. 00:31:20.240 |
If it doesn't, it's very hard to tell the difference. 00:31:24.320 |
And as I was saying to somebody else the other day, 00:31:25.840 |
it's like most likely if it seems too perfect, 00:31:31.680 |
How is that different than airbrushing in Photoshop 00:31:34.400 |
and making the person look completely different? 00:31:36.240 |
We don't have any of those disclosures today. 00:31:45.600 |
Like the number of people who can do what you're saying 00:31:58.560 |
In terms of defense, have you started to make AI shields that-- 00:32:08.640 |
is that I think about 20% to 30% of most companies 00:32:11.760 |
have employees on the younger side who are using AI apps 00:32:14.480 |
to try and get their job done faster and easier. 00:32:19.760 |
Write me a script for this or take this data. 00:32:23.600 |
The risk there is that you're sending proprietary data up 00:32:34.800 |
They could do it, but except that LLM was brought down 00:32:38.560 |
from hugging face, and it's going back to North Korea. 00:32:43.920 |
are being targeted with AI apps in your company 00:32:45.840 |
who are uploading proprietary data in a happy way, 00:32:52.400 |
So there, you have a product that watches all these apps 00:32:55.920 |
and makes sure that what you're using, what you're uploading 00:32:59.520 |
Or if you don't want your employees to send it, 00:33:04.160 |
is that I think almost every company is experimenting 00:33:06.880 |
with deploying LLMs internally because they all want 00:33:12.800 |
And there, you need to be careful because you can, 00:33:23.680 |
So you have what we call an AI firewall that'll protect you. 00:33:26.640 |
I want to be sensitive at the time because I know