In conversation with Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024

00:00:00.000 | After buying Twitter for $44 billion, Musk`s time as CEO has been a whirlwind. Shares of

00:00:10.000 | Musk`s other major company, Tesla, have plummeted more than 30 percent since he took over Twitter.

00:00:16.840 | As is often the case, his next move is unclear.

00:00:20.440 | I go as far to say that he`s demonstrating some erratic behavior.

00:00:24.240 | Go fuck yourself. Is that clear? I hope it is. Hey, Bob, share in the audience.

00:00:34.600 | Elon Musk`s cooperation and/or relationships with other countries is worthy of being looked

00:00:43.120 | at.

00:00:44.120 | The Biden administration has just announced its second investigation into Elon Musk in

00:00:48.840 | less than a week.

00:00:49.840 | Both the Tesla and SpaceX, there`s a product roadmap that they`re on, and that whether

00:00:55.360 | Elon is in the building or not is not going to impact the plan that they have.

00:01:02.360 | People said he`d never get the rocket in space. He did that. People said the roads here would

00:01:05.880 | never get delivered. He did that. People said he`d never get 100 of them done. He`s got

00:01:10.360 | 200 done.

00:01:11.360 | As an entrepreneur, you can`t listen to the noise. And you certainly can`t listen to losers

00:01:15.560 | who have never accomplished anything with their life, who are obsessing about you. Please.

00:01:22.640 | We`re out there among the stars and we`re a multi-planet species across many planets

00:01:27.880 | and many star systems.

00:01:36.920 | This is a great future, and that`s what we should strive for.

00:01:40.840 | To our customer support, at your service.

00:01:45.760 | Nearly every VC I speak with, every CEO is looking to Elon`s behavior and saying that`s

00:01:50.760 | a model for how you can challenge your team to achieve the impossible in an impossibly

00:01:54.600 | difficult environment.

00:01:55.600 | And you can see those grid fins on your left-hand screen rotating and turning to guide the booster.

00:02:08.600 | And you can see the water below and we have blast zone.

00:02:19.840 | He`s just a visionary like I`ve never seen.

00:02:24.260 | How on earth would you bet against him?

00:02:26.480 | Elon seems to be on track to be not only the world`s richest man, but the world`s first

00:02:30.840 | trillionaire.

00:02:31.840 | Elon basically has had over the last 10 or 15 years an incredible amount of challenges

00:02:37.160 | that he`s overcome.

00:02:38.640 | Probably had to deal with stuff that most of us would have broken under, and he just

00:02:43.000 | fought through it.

00:02:44.000 | And the guy just basically bended all the haters until he crushed their souls.

00:02:49.240 | And I just think that that`s incredible.

00:02:53.240 | My greatest entrepreneur of this generation, Elon Musk.

00:03:11.000 | I`m going to take this.

00:03:17.760 | All right.

00:03:18.760 | Thanks for taking the time.

00:03:22.240 | How are you doing, brother?

00:03:26.560 | You keeping busy?

00:03:29.560 | Yeah.

00:03:30.560 | I mean, it`s rarely a slow week.

00:03:37.440 | I mean, in the world as well.

00:03:41.640 | Yeah.

00:03:42.640 | I mean, any given week, it just seems like the thing is getting out of here.

00:03:46.600 | It`s definitely a simulation.

00:03:47.600 | We`ve agreed on this at this point.

00:03:50.640 | I mean, look, if we are in some alien Netflix series, I think the ratings are high.

00:03:56.360 | Yeah.

00:03:57.360 | The ratings are high.

00:03:59.200 | How are the freedom of speech wars going?

00:04:04.040 | This is a - you`ve been at war for two years now.

00:04:10.160 | Yes.

00:04:11.160 | The price of freedom of speech is not cheap, is it?

00:04:13.640 | I think it`s like 44 billion, something like that.

00:04:16.800 | Give or take a billion.

00:04:21.040 | Yeah.

00:04:22.040 | It`s pretty nutty.

00:04:25.680 | There is like this weird movement to quell free speech kind of around the world.

00:04:32.440 | And that`s something we should be very concerned about.

00:04:37.040 | You have to ask, like, why was the First Amendment like a high priority?

00:04:41.400 | It was like number one.

00:04:43.760 | Is because people came from countries where if you spoke freely, you would be imprisoned

00:04:50.000 | or killed.

00:04:51.800 | And they were like, well, we`d like to not have that here.

00:04:54.920 | Because that was terrible.

00:04:59.080 | And actually, you know, there`s a lot of places in the world right now, if you are critical

00:05:03.160 | of the government, you get imprisoned or killed.

00:05:07.560 | Right.

00:05:08.560 | Yeah.

00:05:09.560 | We`d like to not have that.

00:05:10.560 | Are you concerned --

00:05:11.560 | Can I add to that?

00:05:12.560 | Yeah.

00:05:13.560 | I mean, I suspect this is a receptive audience to that message.

00:05:19.560 | Yeah.

00:05:24.560 | I think we always thought that the West was the exception to that, that we knew there

00:05:29.120 | were authoritarian places around the world, but we thought that in the West, we`d have

00:05:32.280 | freedom of speech.

00:05:33.280 | And we`ve seen, like you said, it seems like a global movement.

00:05:36.440 | In Britain, you`ve got teenagers being put in prison for memes, opposing --

00:05:41.660 | It`s like you like to -- you like to Facebook post, throw them in the prison.

00:05:47.040 | Yeah.

00:05:48.040 | People have got an actual, you know, prison for, like, obscure comments on social media.

00:05:55.040 | Not even shitposting.

00:05:56.040 | Like, not even --

00:05:57.040 | Yeah.

00:05:58.040 | It`s crazy.

00:05:59.040 | Look, this is when --

00:06:00.040 | Pablo got thrown in prison recently.

00:06:01.040 | Right.

00:06:02.040 | You`ve got Pablo --

00:06:03.040 | I`m like, I was pretty shook about that.

00:06:04.040 | I mean, what is the massive crime that --

00:06:06.800 | Right.

00:06:07.800 | Pavel in France, and then, of course, we got Brazil with Judge Voldemort.

00:06:12.800 | That one seems like the one that impacts you the most.

00:06:15.400 | Can you -- what`s the latest on that?

00:06:19.380 | Well, we -- I guess we are trying to figure out is there some reasonable solution in Brazil.

00:06:30.080 | The -- you know, the concern -- I mean, I want to just make sure that this is framed

00:06:35.400 | correctly.

00:06:36.400 | And, you know, funny memes aside, the nature of the concern was that, at least at XCorp,

00:06:46.240 | we had the perception that we were being asked to do things that violated Brazilian law.

00:06:53.240 | So, obviously, we cannot, as an American company, impose American laws and values on other countries

00:07:02.080 | that -- you know, we wouldn`t get very far if we did that.

00:07:06.120 | But we do, you know, think that if a country`s laws are a particular way, and we are being

00:07:13.360 | asked to -- what we think we are being asked to break them, then -- and be silent about

00:07:19.280 | it, then, obviously, that is no good.

00:07:21.960 | So I just want to be clear, because sometimes it comes across as Elon is trying to just

00:07:29.080 | be a crazy whatever, billionaire, and demand outrageous things from other countries.

00:07:36.280 | And, you know, while that is true, in addition, there are other things that I think are -- I

00:07:51.920 | think are valid, which is, like, we obviously can`t -- you know, I think any given thing

00:07:58.400 | that we do at XCorp, we`ve got to be able to explain in the light of day, and not feel

00:08:04.400 | that it was dishonorable, or, you know, we did the wrong thing, you know?

00:08:11.760 | So we don`t -- that was the -- that`s the nature of the concern.

00:08:15.560 | So we actually are in sort of discussions with the, you know, judicial authorities in

00:08:24.160 | Brazil to try to, you know, run this to ground, like, what`s actually going on?

00:08:32.320 | Like, if we`re being asked to break the law, Brazilian law, then that obviously should

00:08:37.640 | not be -- should not sit well with the Brazilian judiciary.

00:08:42.120 | And if we`re not, and we`re mistaken, we`d like to understand how we`re mistaken.

00:08:46.140 | I think that`s a -- that`s a pretty reasonable position.

00:08:48.320 | I`m a bit concerned, as your friend, that you`re going to go to one of these countries,

00:08:55.840 | and I`m going to wake up one day, and you`re going to get arrested, and, like, I`m going

00:08:58.360 | to have to go bail you out or something.

00:08:59.960 | Like, this is -- feels very acute, like --

00:09:02.360 | Yes.

00:09:03.360 | I mean, it`s not a joke now.

00:09:05.040 | Like, they`re literally saying, like, you know, it`s not just Biden saying, like, we

00:09:08.640 | have to look into that guy, now it`s become quite literal, like, this -- I don`t know,

00:09:12.800 | who was the guy who just wrote the -- was it the Guardian piece about, like --

00:09:16.600 | Oh, yeah, yeah, there`ve been three articles, and I think in the past three weeks --

00:09:21.760 | Robert Reich.

00:09:22.760 | Yeah.

00:09:23.760 | But it wasn`t just him.

00:09:24.760 | Yeah.

00:09:25.760 | Three different articles.

00:09:26.760 | Three different articles.

00:09:27.760 | Yeah.

00:09:28.760 | That doesn`t -- that`s a trend.

00:09:29.760 | Calling for me to be imprisoned in the Guardian, you know, Guardian of what?

00:09:35.520 | What are they protecting, exactly?

00:09:38.960 | Guardian of -- I don`t know.

00:09:41.840 | Authoritarianism?

00:09:42.840 | Yeah.

00:09:43.840 | Guardian of -- yeah.

00:09:44.840 | Yeah.

00:09:45.840 | Censorship?

00:09:46.840 | Censorship.

00:09:47.840 | But the premise here is that you bought this thing, this online forum, this communication

00:09:53.000 | platform, and you`re allowing people to use it to express themselves, therefore, you have

00:09:58.720 | to be jailed.

00:09:59.720 | I don`t understand the logic here.

00:10:02.080 | Right.

00:10:03.080 | So, what do you think they`re actually afraid of at this point?

00:10:05.560 | What`s the motivation here?

00:10:08.000 | Well, I mean, I think -- if somebody`s afraid -- if somebody`s sort of trying to push a false

00:10:13.440 | premise on the world, then that premise can be undermined with public dialogue, then they

00:10:20.480 | will be opposed to public dialogue on that premise, because they wish that false premise

00:10:24.760 | to prevail.

00:10:25.760 | Right.

00:10:26.760 | So, that`s, I think, you know, the issue there is, if they don`t like the truth, you know,

00:10:34.080 | then we want to suppress it.

00:10:35.640 | So, now, you know, the sort of -- what we`re trying to do with XCorp is -- I distinguish

00:10:46.080 | that from my son, who`s also called X.

00:10:48.000 | Yes.

00:10:49.000 | Right.

00:10:50.000 | You have parental goals, and then you have goals for the company.

00:10:53.640 | Everything`s just called X, basically.

00:10:54.640 | Yes.

00:10:55.640 | Very difficult disambiguation.

00:10:56.640 | The car, the son.

00:10:57.640 | Yes.

00:10:58.640 | It`s everything.

00:10:59.640 | So, what we`re trying to do is simply adhere to the, you know, the laws in a country.

00:11:09.960 | So, if something is illegal in the United States, or if it`s illegal in, you know, Europe

00:11:15.760 | or Brazil or wherever it might be, then we will take it down, and we`ll suspend the account,

00:11:22.520 | because we`re not, you know, there to make the laws, we -- but if speech is not illegal,

00:11:30.280 | then what are we doing?

00:11:31.280 | Okay.

00:11:32.280 | Now, we`re injecting ourselves in as a censor, and where does it stop, and who decides?

00:11:39.920 | So, where does that path lead?

00:11:43.280 | I think it leads to a bad place.

00:11:45.800 | So, if the people in a country want the laws to be different, they should make the laws

00:11:51.760 | different.

00:11:52.760 | But otherwise, we`re going to obey the law in each jurisdiction.

00:11:56.960 | Right.

00:11:57.960 | And some of these European --

00:11:58.960 | That`s it.

00:11:59.960 | It`s not more complicated than that.

00:12:00.960 | We`re not trying to flout the law.

00:12:01.960 | I`m going to be clear about that.

00:12:02.960 | We`re trying to adhere to the law, and if the laws change, we will change.

00:12:06.560 | And if the laws don`t change, we won`t.

00:12:08.320 | We`re just literally trying to adhere to the law.

00:12:11.280 | It`s pretty straightforward.

00:12:12.280 | There`s some European --

00:12:13.280 | Yes.

00:12:14.280 | It`s very straightforward.

00:12:15.280 | And if somebody thinks we`re not adhering to the law, well, they can file a lawsuit.

00:12:18.720 | Bingo.

00:12:19.720 | Also very straightforward.

00:12:20.720 | Yes.

00:12:21.720 | But what about countries that don`t want people to promote Nazi propaganda?

00:12:24.440 | Yes.

00:12:25.440 | They have some sensitivity to it.

00:12:26.640 | Well, it is illegal.

00:12:27.640 | It is illegal in those countries.

00:12:28.640 | Yes, it is illegal.

00:12:29.640 | And in those countries, if somebody puts that up, you take it down.

00:12:32.280 | Yes.

00:12:33.280 | But they typically file something and say, "Take this down."

00:12:35.760 | Yes.

00:12:36.760 | No, in some cases, it is just obviously illegal.

00:12:39.360 | Like, you don`t need to file a lawsuit for, you know, if something is just, you know,

00:12:45.160 | unequivocally illegal.

00:12:46.160 | We can literally read the law.

00:12:47.160 | This violates the law.

00:12:48.160 | You know, anyone --

00:12:49.160 | Why not?

00:12:50.160 | Anyone can see that.

00:12:51.160 | You know, you don`t need -- like, if somebody is stealing, you don`t need -- let me check

00:12:55.600 | the law on that.

00:12:56.600 | Yes.

00:12:57.600 | Okay.

00:12:58.600 | Oh, no.

00:12:59.600 | They`re stealing stuff.

00:13:00.600 | Let`s talk about it.

00:13:01.600 | So, we had J.D. Vance here this morning.

00:13:03.160 | He did a great job.

00:13:05.440 | And you know, one of the things is there`s this image on X of, like, basically, like,

00:13:09.880 | you, Bobby, Trump, and J.D. are like the Avengers, I guess.

00:13:15.960 | And then there`s another meme where you`re in front of a desk where it says, "D-O-G-E."

00:13:19.840 | Yes.

00:13:20.840 | The Department of Governmental Efficiency.

00:13:22.560 | Yes.

00:13:23.560 | Yes.

00:13:24.560 | I posted that one.

00:13:25.560 | Tell us about it.

00:13:26.560 | I made it using Grok, the Grok image generator.

00:13:31.000 | And I posted it.

00:13:32.000 | Tell us about --

00:13:33.000 | And put it to my profile.

00:13:34.000 | Seek for efficiency.

00:13:35.000 | How do you do it?

00:13:40.000 | Well, I mean, I --

00:13:46.600 | I think with great difficulty, but, you know, look, it`s been a long time since there was

00:13:52.120 | a serious effort to reduce the size of government and to remove absurd regulations.

00:13:59.120 | Yeah.

00:14:00.120 | And, you know, last time there was a really concerted effort on that front was Reagan

00:14:04.240 | in the early `80s.

00:14:05.240 | We`re 40 years away from a serious effort to remove, you know, regulations that don`t

00:14:14.200 | serve the greater good and reduce the size of government.

00:14:18.120 | And I think it`s just -- if we don`t do that, then what`s happening is that we get regulations

00:14:23.480 | and laws accumulating every year until eventually everything`s illegal.

00:14:28.920 | And that`s why we can`t get major infrastructure projects done in the United States.

00:14:32.800 | Like, if you look at the absurdity of the California high-speed rail, I think they spent

00:14:37.160 | $7 billion and have a 1,600-foot segment that doesn`t actually have rail in it.

00:14:42.000 | I mean, your tax dollars at work, I mean --

00:14:44.240 | Yeah.

00:14:45.240 | What are we doing?

00:14:46.240 | That`s the expense of 1,600 feet of concrete, you know.

00:14:50.640 | And I mean, I think it`s like, you know, I realize sometimes I`m perhaps a little optimistic

00:14:57.480 | with schedules, but, you know, I mean, I wouldn`t be doing the things I`m doing if I was, you

00:15:06.360 | know, not an optimist, so -- but at the current trend, you know, California high-speed rail

00:15:15.360 | might finish sometime next century.

00:15:17.440 | Maybe.

00:15:18.440 | Probably not.

00:15:19.440 | We`re just --

00:15:20.440 | We`ll have teleportation by that time, so --

00:15:22.000 | Yeah, exactly.

00:15:23.000 | We just have AI do everything at that point.

00:15:28.320 | So, I think you really think of, you know, the United States and many countries, it`s

00:15:34.360 | arguably worse than the EU, as being like Gulliver tied down by a million little strings.

00:15:40.360 | And like any one given regulation is not that bad, but you`ve got a million of them, or

00:15:46.920 | millions actually.

00:15:48.760 | And then eventually you just can`t get anything done, and this is a massive tax on the consumer,

00:15:55.680 | on the people.

00:15:56.680 | It`s just they don`t realize that there`s this massive tax in the form of irrational

00:16:02.360 | regulations.

00:16:03.360 | I`m going to give you a recent example that, you know, is just insane, is that like SpaceX

00:16:10.880 | was fined by the EPA $140,000 for they claimed dumping potable water on the ground, drinking

00:16:19.200 | water.

00:16:20.200 | So, and we`re like, this is at Starbase, and we`re like, it`s -- we`re in a tropical thunderstorm

00:16:26.400 | region, that stuff comes from the sky all the time.

00:16:30.640 | And there was no actual harm done, you know, it was just water to cool the launch pad during

00:16:36.920 | liftoff, and there`s zero harm done.

00:16:40.440 | Like, and they`re like, they agree, yes, there`s zero harm done.

00:16:42.240 | And we`re like, okay, so there`s no harm done.

00:16:44.800 | And you want us to pay $140,000 fine, it`s like, yes, because you didn`t have a permit.

00:16:49.320 | Okay.

00:16:50.320 | We didn`t know there was a permit needed for zero harm, fresh water being on the ground

00:16:56.600 | in a place that where fresh water falls from the sky all the time.

00:17:00.400 | Got it.

00:17:01.400 | Next to the ocean.

00:17:02.400 | Next to the ocean.

00:17:03.400 | Because there`s a little bit of water there, too.

00:17:05.520 | Yeah.

00:17:06.520 | I mean, sometimes it rains so much, the roads are flooded.

00:17:08.520 | So we`re like, you know, how does this make any sense?

00:17:12.360 | Yeah.

00:17:13.360 | And then, like, they were like, well, we`re not going to process any more of your -- any

00:17:17.880 | more of your applications for launch, for Starship launch, unless you pay this $140,000.

00:17:21.880 | They just ransomed us, and we`re like, okay, so we paid $140,000, but it was -- it`s like,

00:17:27.320 | this is no good.

00:17:28.320 | At this rate, we`re never going to get to Mars.

00:17:30.880 | I mean, that`s the -- that`s the confounding part here is we`re acting against our own

00:17:37.520 | self-interest.

00:17:38.520 | You know, when you look at -- we do have to make -- putting aside fresh water, but, hey,

00:17:44.280 | you know, there -- the rocket makes a lot of noise.

00:17:47.360 | So I`m certain there`s some complaints about noise once in a while.

00:17:50.600 | But sometimes you want to have a party, or you want to make progress, and there`s a little

00:17:53.680 | bit of noise, therefore, you know, we trade off a little bit of noise for massive progress

00:17:58.520 | or even fun.

00:17:59.840 | So, like, when did we stop being able to make those tradeoffs?

00:18:03.400 | But talk about the difference between California and Texas, where you and I now reside.

00:18:10.240 | Texas, you were able to build the Gigafactory, I remember when you got the plot of land,

00:18:15.600 | and then our -- it seemed like it was less than two years when you had the party to open

00:18:21.280 | it.

00:18:22.280 | Where we -- yeah.

00:18:23.280 | From start of construction to completion was 14 months.

00:18:28.200 | Fourteen.

00:18:29.200 | Fourteen months.

00:18:30.200 | Is there anywhere on the planet that would go faster?

00:18:32.000 | Is, like, China faster than that?

00:18:34.640 | China was 11 months.

00:18:35.640 | Got it.

00:18:36.640 | So, Texas, China, 11 and 14 months, California, how many months?

00:18:42.120 | And just to give you a sense of size, the -- Tesla Gigafactory in China is three times

00:18:46.960 | the size of the Pentagon.

00:18:48.780 | Which was the biggest building in America.

00:18:50.120 | No, there were bigger buildings, but the Pentagon was a pretty big one.

00:18:52.480 | Yeah.

00:18:53.480 | Or it was the biggest at the time.

00:18:54.480 | In units of Pentagon, it's, like, three.

00:18:56.360 | Okay.

00:18:57.360 | Three Pentagons and counting.

00:18:59.400 | Yeah.

00:19:00.400 | Got it.

00:19:01.400 | In 14 months.

00:19:04.480 | Just the regulatory approvals in California would have taken two years.

00:19:09.880 | So that's the issue.

00:19:12.040 | Where do you think the regulation helps?

00:19:14.280 | Like for the people that will say, "We need some checks and balances.

00:19:17.000 | We can't have some -- because for every good actor like you, there'll be a bad actor."

00:19:20.360 | So where is that line, then?

00:19:22.280 | Yeah.

00:19:23.280 | I mean, I haven't -- sort of, you know, in sort of doing a sensible deregulation and

00:19:32.080 | reduction in the size of government is just, like, be very public about it and say, like,

00:19:36.520 | which of these rules do you -- if the public is really excited about a rule and wants to

00:19:40.440 | keep it, we'll just keep it.

00:19:42.720 | And here, the thing about the rule is, if, like, if the rule is, you know, turns out

00:19:47.080 | to be a bad, we'll just put it right back.

00:19:49.960 | Okay.

00:19:50.960 | And then, you know, problem solved.

00:19:51.960 | It's, like, it's easy to add rules, but we don't actually have a process for getting

00:19:55.160 | rid of them.

00:19:56.440 | That's the issue.

00:19:57.440 | There's no garbage collection for rules.

00:19:59.560 | When we were watching you work, David and I and Antonio, in that first month at Twitter,

00:20:08.640 | which was all hands on deck, and you were doing zero-based budgeting, you really quickly

00:20:13.840 | got the costs under control.

00:20:15.520 | And then, miraculously, everybody said this site will go down, and you added 50 more features.

00:20:21.640 | So maybe explain.

00:20:22.640 | Yeah.

00:20:23.640 | Because this is the first thing.

00:20:24.640 | Yeah, there were, like, so many articles, like, that this is -- Twitter is dead forever.

00:20:29.680 | There's no way it could possibly even continue at all.

00:20:32.960 | Yeah.

00:20:33.960 | It was almost like the press was rooting for you to fail.

00:20:34.960 | It's like, all right, team.

00:20:35.960 | Let's write the obituary.

00:20:36.960 | Like, here's the obituary.

00:20:37.960 | And they were all saying their goodbyes on Twitter.

00:20:39.440 | Remember that?

00:20:40.440 | Yeah, yeah.

00:20:41.440 | Yeah.

00:20:42.440 | They were all leaving and saying their goodbyes, because the site was going to melt down.

00:20:43.440 | Yes.

00:20:44.440 | Yes.

00:20:45.440 | Totally failing.

00:20:46.440 | All the journalists left.

00:20:47.440 | Yeah.

00:20:48.440 | Which is, if you ever want to, like, hang out with a bunch of hall monitors, oh my god,

00:20:52.760 | Threads is amazing.

00:20:53.760 | Every time I go over there and post, they're, like, they're really triggered.

00:20:57.880 | Yeah.

00:20:58.880 | I mean, if you like being condemned repeatedly, then, you know, for reasons that make no sense,

00:21:03.960 | then Threads is the way to go.

00:21:05.320 | It's really, it's the most miserable place on earth.

00:21:08.680 | If Disney's the happiest, this is the anti-Disney.

00:21:12.000 | But if we were to go into government, you went into the Department of Education or pick

00:21:16.720 | the department.

00:21:17.720 | You've worked with a lot of them, actually.

00:21:19.720 | You can't go in there and zero-base budget.

00:21:21.280 | OK, we get it.

00:21:22.720 | But if you could just pair 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% of those organizations, what kind of impact

00:21:29.880 | would that have?

00:21:30.880 | Yeah.

00:21:31.880 | I mean, I think we'd need to do more than that.

00:21:34.840 | I think.

00:21:35.840 | Ideally.

00:21:36.840 | Yeah.

00:21:37.840 | Compounding every year.

00:21:38.840 | 2%, 3% a year.

00:21:39.840 | I mean, it would be better than what's happening now.

00:21:42.640 | Yeah.

00:21:43.640 | Look, I think we've, you know, if Trump wins, and I suspect there are people with mixed feelings

00:21:55.160 | about whether that should happen, but we do have an opportunity to do kind of a once-in-a-lifetime

00:22:03.360 | deregulation and reduction in the size of government.

00:22:06.640 | Because the other thing, besides the regulations, America is also going bankrupt extremely quickly.

00:22:12.360 | And nobody seems to, everyone seems to be sort of whistling past the graveyard on this

00:22:16.560 | one.

00:22:17.560 | They're all grabbing the silverware.

00:22:21.040 | Everyone's stuffing their pockets in the silverware before the Titanic sinks.

00:22:24.720 | Well, you know, the Defense Department budget is a very big budget, OK?

00:22:30.120 | It's a trillion dollars a year, DOD, Intel, it's a trillion dollars.

00:22:36.280 | And interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the Defense Department budget.

00:22:42.680 | They're over a trillion dollars a year, just in interest, and rising.

00:22:48.640 | We're adding a trillion dollars to our debt, which our kids and grandkids are going to

00:22:55.120 | have to pay somehow, you know, every three months.

00:23:01.160 | And then soon it's going to be every two months, and then every month.

00:23:04.600 | And then the only thing we'll be able to pay is interest.

00:23:08.320 | And it's just, you know, it's just like a person at scale that has racked up too much

00:23:14.760 | credit card debt, and this does not have a good ending.

00:23:23.980 | And so we have to reduce the spending.

00:23:26.000 | Let me ask one question, because I've brought this up a lot, and the counterargument I hear,

00:23:30.760 | which I disagree with, but the counterargument I hear from a lot of politicians is if we

00:23:35.400 | reduce spending, because right now, if you add up federal, state, and local government

00:23:39.840 | spending, it's between 40 and 50 percent of GDP.

00:23:44.180 | So nearly half of our economy is supported by government spending, and nearly half of

00:23:48.960 | people in the United States are dependent directly or indirectly on government checks,

00:23:54.520 | and either through contractors that the government pays, or they're employed by a government

00:23:58.200 | entity.

00:23:59.200 | So if you go in and you take too hard an ax too fast, you will have significant contraction,

00:24:06.240 | job loss, and recession.

00:24:08.160 | What's the balancing act, Elon?

00:24:10.300 | Just thinking realistically, because I'm 100 percent on board with you, the next set of

00:24:15.600 | steps, however, assume Trump wins and you become the chief D-O-G-E, D-O-G-E, D-O, like

00:24:25.960 | double G-E.

00:24:26.960 | Yeah, and I think the challenge is how quickly can we go in, how quickly can things change,

00:24:34.680 | and without ...

00:24:35.680 | I'll let that on my business card.

00:24:41.160 | Yeah.

00:24:42.160 | Without all the contraction and job loss.

00:24:44.360 | You don't have Scott.

00:24:45.360 | Yeah.

00:24:46.360 | So I guess, how do you really address it when so much of the economy and so many people's

00:24:49.240 | jobs and livelihoods are dependent on government spending?

00:24:52.240 | Well, I mean, I do think it's sort of, you know, it's a false dichotomy.

00:24:59.760 | It's not like no government spending is going to happen.

00:25:03.320 | You really have to say, like, is it the right level?

00:25:06.820 | And just remember that, you know, any given person, if they are doing things in a less

00:25:13.220 | efficient organization versus a more efficient organization, their contribution to the economy,

00:25:17.760 | their net output of goods and services will reduce.

00:25:20.600 | I mean, you've got a couple of clear examples between East Germany and West Germany, North

00:25:25.920 | Korea and South Korea.

00:25:26.920 | I mean, North Korea, they're starving.

00:25:29.680 | South Korea, it's, like, amazing.

00:25:31.440 | It's the future.

00:25:32.440 | It's the compounding effect of productivity gains.

00:25:34.720 | Yeah.

00:25:35.720 | Yeah, it's night and day.

00:25:36.800 | And so in North Korea, you've got 100% government, and in South Korea, you've got probably, I

00:25:42.160 | don't know, 40% government.

00:25:43.360 | It's not zero.

00:25:44.360 | Yeah.

00:25:45.360 | And yet you've got a standard of living that is probably 10 times higher in South Korea.

00:25:48.440 | At least.

00:25:49.440 | At least, exactly.

00:25:52.020 | And then East and West Germany, in West Germany, just thinking in terms of cars, I mean, you

00:25:57.440 | had BMW, Porsche, Audi, Mercedes.

00:26:02.360 | And East Germany, which is a random line on a map, the only car you could get was a Trabant,

00:26:09.200 | which is basically a lawnmower with a shell in it.

00:26:13.120 | And it was extremely unsafe.

00:26:14.680 | There was a 20-year wait.

00:26:18.080 | So you put your kid on the list as soon as they're conceived.

00:26:24.800 | And even then, only, I think, a quarter of people maybe got this lousy car.

00:26:33.320 | So that's just an interesting example of basically the same people, different operating system.

00:26:38.560 | And it's not like West Germany was some capitalist heaven.

00:26:45.960 | It was quite socialist, actually.

00:26:49.920 | So when you look, probably it was half government in West Germany and 100% government in East

00:26:56.000 | Germany.

00:26:57.000 | And again, sort of a 5 to 10x standard of living difference, and even qualitatively

00:27:04.560 | vastly better.

00:27:06.000 | And it's obviously, so many people have these, amazingly, in this modern era, this debate

00:27:10.440 | as to which system is better.

00:27:11.680 | Well, I'll tell you which system is better.

00:27:14.120 | The one that doesn't need to build the wall to keep people in, OK?

00:27:18.200 | That's how you can tell.

00:27:19.200 | OK?

00:27:20.200 | Yeah.

00:27:21.200 | It's a dead giveaway.

00:27:22.200 | Spoiler alert.

00:27:23.200 | Dead giveaway.

00:27:24.200 | Are they climbing the wall to get out or come in?

00:27:28.400 | You have to build a barrier to keep people in.

00:27:31.900 | That is the bad system.

00:27:35.200 | It wasn't West Berlin that built the wall, OK?

00:27:37.800 | They were like, you know, anyone who wants to flee West Berlin, go ahead.

00:27:41.520 | Speaking of walls.

00:27:44.780 | And if you look at sort of the flux of boats from Cuba, there's a large number of boats

00:27:49.880 | from Cuba, and there's a bunch of free boats that anyone can take to go back to Cuba.

00:27:56.200 | They're empty on the way back.

00:27:57.200 | Plenty of seats.

00:27:58.200 | There's like, hey, wow, an abandoned boat.

00:27:59.680 | I could use this boat to go to Cuba, where they have communism.

00:28:03.720 | Awesome.

00:28:04.720 | And yet nobody picks up those boats and does it.

00:28:09.240 | Amazing.

00:28:10.240 | You've given this a lot of thought.

00:28:12.520 | Yeah.

00:28:13.520 | Wait, so your point is jobs will be created if we cut government spending in half.

00:28:16.880 | Jobs will be created fast enough to make up for, right, just the countries.

00:28:20.760 | Yes.

00:28:21.760 | Obviously, you know, I'm not suggesting that people, you know, have like immediately tossed

00:28:27.160 | out with no severance and, you know, now can't pay their mortgage.

00:28:31.000 | There needs to be some reasonable off-ramp where, yeah, so a reasonable off-ramp where,

00:28:36.440 | you know, they're still, you know, earning, they're still receiving money, but have like,

00:28:41.040 | I don't know, a year or two to find jobs in the private sector, which they will find.

00:28:46.000 | And then they will be in a different operating system.

00:28:48.200 | Again, you can see the difference.

00:28:50.440 | East Germany was incorporated into West Germany.

00:28:52.440 | Living standards in East Germany rose dramatically.

00:28:55.760 | Well, in four years, if you could shrink the size of the government with Trump, what would

00:29:01.840 | be a good target, just in terms of like ballpark?

00:29:04.600 | I mean, are you trying to get me assassinated before this even happens?

00:29:08.040 | No.

00:29:09.040 | No.

00:29:10.040 | Pick a low number.

00:29:11.040 | I mean, you know, there's that old phrase, "Go postal."

00:29:12.760 | I mean, it's like they might.

00:29:13.760 | Yeah.

00:29:14.760 | I mean.

00:29:15.760 | So we'll keep the post office.

00:29:16.760 | I mean, I'm going to need a lot of security details, guys.

00:29:19.640 | Yes.

00:29:20.640 | I mean, the sheer number of disgruntled workers, former government employees, is quite a scary

00:29:28.720 | number.

00:29:29.720 | I mean, I might not make it.

00:29:30.720 | I was saying a low digits every year for four years would be palatable.

00:29:33.640 | Yeah.

00:29:34.640 | And I like your idea of an offer.

00:29:35.640 | Yeah, but the thing is that if it's not done, like if you have a once in a lifetime, once

00:29:40.920 | in a generation opportunity, and you don't take serious action, and then you have four

00:29:46.800 | years to get it done, and if it doesn't get done, then.

00:29:51.120 | How serious is Trump about this?

00:29:52.320 | Like, you've talked to him about it.

00:29:53.840 | Yeah.

00:29:54.840 | Yeah.

00:29:55.840 | He's serious.

00:29:56.840 | He is very serious about it.

00:29:57.840 | Got it.

00:29:58.840 | No, I think actually the reality is that if we get rid of nonsense regulations and shift

00:30:02.680 | people from the government sector to the private sector, we will have immense prosperity, and

00:30:10.080 | I think we will have a golden age in this country.

00:30:12.480 | And it'll be fantastic.

00:30:13.480 | You have a bunch of critical milestones coming up.

00:30:23.580 | Yeah.

00:30:24.580 | In fact, there's a very exciting launch that is maybe happening tonight, so if the weather

00:30:31.840 | is holding up, then I'm going to leave here, head to Cape Canaveral for the Polaris Dawn

00:30:38.400 | mission, which is a private mission, so funded by Jared Isaacman.

00:30:42.640 | And he's an awesome guy, and this will be the first commercial spacewalk, and it'll

00:30:52.200 | be at the highest altitude since Apollo, so it's the furthest from Earth that anyone's

00:30:58.600 | gone.

00:30:59.600 | Yeah.

00:31:00.600 | And what comes after that?

00:31:01.600 | Let's assume that's successful.

00:31:02.600 | I sure hope so, man.

00:31:03.600 | No pressure.

00:31:12.720 | Yeah, astronaut safety is, man, if I had all the wishes I could say about, that'd be the

00:31:26.160 | one to put it on.

00:31:28.600 | So space is dangerous.

00:31:32.200 | So yeah, the next milestone after that would be the next flight of Starship, which, you

00:31:44.040 | know, Starship is, the next flight of Starship is ready to fly.

00:31:47.920 | We are waiting for regulatory approval.

00:31:52.640 | You know, it really should not be possible to build a giant rocket faster than the paper

00:32:01.040 | can move from one desk to another.

00:32:03.280 | That stamp is really hard.

00:32:08.360 | Approved.

00:32:09.360 | Yeah.

00:32:10.360 | Approved.

00:32:11.360 | You ever see that movie Zootopia, there's like a sloth coming in for the approval.

00:32:22.640 | Yeah, they accidentally tell a joke, and I was like, "Oh no, this is going to take a

00:32:27.560 | long time."

00:32:28.560 | Sorry, sorry.

00:32:29.560 | Yeah, Zootopia, you know, the funny thing is, like, so I went to the DMV about, I don't

00:32:38.280 | know, a year later after Zootopia to get my license renewal, and the guy in an exercise

00:32:45.320 | of incredible self-awareness had the sloth from Zootopia in his cube, and he was actually

00:32:52.840 | Swift.

00:32:53.840 | Yeah.

00:32:54.840 | With the mandate, "Beat the sloth."

00:32:57.560 | Yeah, no.

00:32:58.560 | "Beat personal agency.

00:32:59.560 | Personal agency."

00:33:00.560 | No, I mean, sometimes people think the government is more competent than it is.

00:33:08.520 | I'm not saying that there aren't competent people in the government, they're just in

00:33:11.160 | an operating system that is inefficient.

00:33:13.840 | Once you move them to a more efficient operating system, their output is dramatically greater,

00:33:18.520 | as we've seen, you know, when East Germany was reintegrated with West Germany, and the

00:33:25.480 | same people were vastly more prosperous, with a basically half-capitalist operating system.

00:33:33.400 | So, but I mean, for a lot of people, like, their most direct experience with the government

00:33:42.400 | is the DMV, and then the important thing to remember is that the government is the DMV

00:33:47.960 | at scale.

00:33:48.960 | Right.

00:33:49.960 | That's the government.

00:33:50.960 | Got the mental picture.

00:33:54.120 | How much do you want to scale it?

00:33:56.480 | Yeah.

00:33:57.480 | Yeah.

00:33:58.480 | Elon, sorry, can you go back to Chamath's question on Starship?

00:34:03.600 | So you announced just the other day Starship going to Mars in two years, and-

00:34:08.080 | By the way.

00:34:09.080 | Huh?

00:34:10.080 | Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:34:11.080 | Yeah, yeah.

00:34:12.080 | And then four years for a crude aspirational launch in the next window?

00:34:16.520 | And how much is the government involved, and NASA involved?

00:34:18.360 | I'm not saying, like, say you watch by these, you know, but these, but based on our current

00:34:25.120 | progress where with Starship we were able to successfully reach orbital velocity twice,

00:34:31.680 | we were able to achieve soft landings of the booster and the ship in water, and that's

00:34:37.680 | despite the ship having, you know, half its flaps corked off.

00:34:41.000 | You can see the video on the X platform, it's quite exciting.

00:34:45.200 | So, you know, we think we'll be able to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly.

00:34:54.600 | And the fundamental Holy Grail breakthrough for rocketry, the fundamental breakthrough

00:35:01.760 | that is needed for life to become multi-planetary is a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket.

00:35:08.880 | With a pirate, somehow, throw a pirate in there.

00:35:18.560 | So Starship is the first rocket design where success is one of the possible outcomes with

00:35:27.460 | full reusability.

00:35:28.460 | So, you know, for any given project you have to say, this is the circle, so we'll write

00:35:34.120 | that, here's the circle, and it is success, the success dot in the circle is success in

00:35:42.280 | the set of possible outcomes.

00:35:43.840 | That's, you know, it sounds pretty obvious, but there are often projects where that success

00:35:50.160 | is not in the set of possible outcomes.

00:35:53.240 | And so Starship not only is full reusability in the set of possible outcomes, it is being

00:36:00.080 | proven with each launch, and I'm confident we'll succeed, it's simply a matter of time.

00:36:06.240 | And if we can get some improvement in the speed of regulation, we could actually move

00:36:14.200 | a lot faster.

00:36:17.720 | So that would be very helpful, and in fact, if something isn't done about reducing regulation

00:36:27.040 | and sort of speeding up approvals, and to be clear, I'm not talking about anything unsafe,

00:36:32.120 | it's simply the processing of the safe thing can be done as fast as the rocket is built,

00:36:39.320 | not slower, then we could become a space-faring civilization and a multi-planet species and

00:36:47.240 | be out there among the stars in the future.

00:36:49.000 | And it's incredibly important that we have things that we find inspiring, that you look

00:37:02.640 | to the future and say the future's going to be better than the past, things to look forward

00:37:06.600 | to.

00:37:08.880 | Like kids are a good way to assess this, like what are kids fired up about?

00:37:14.880 | If you could say, you could be an astronaut on Mars, you could maybe one day go beyond

00:37:23.280 | the solar system, we could make Star Trek, Starfleet Academy real.

00:37:30.120 | That is an exciting future.

00:37:32.200 | That is inspiring.

00:37:34.200 | I mean, you need things that move your heart.

00:37:39.720 | Life can't just be about solving one miserable problem after another, there's got to be things

00:37:52.720 | that you look forward to as well.

00:37:54.920 | Yeah, and do you think you might have to move it to a different jurisdiction to move faster?

00:38:00.280 | I've always wondered if like...

00:38:03.320 | Rocket technology is considered advanced weapons technology, so we can't just go do it...

00:38:07.360 | In another country?

00:38:08.360 | Yes.

00:38:09.360 | That's interesting.

00:38:10.360 | And if we don't do it, other countries could do it.

00:38:12.040 | I mean, they're so far behind us, but theoretically, there is a national security, you know, justification

00:38:20.360 | here.

00:38:21.360 | If somebody can put their thinking caps on, like, do we want to have this technology that

00:38:24.560 | you're building, the team's working so hard on, stolen by other countries?

00:38:28.080 | And then, you know, maybe they don't have as much red tape.

00:38:31.340 | I wish people were trying to steal it.

00:38:35.000 | So no one's trying to steal it, it's just too crazy, basically.

00:38:44.360 | And that's for you.

00:38:45.360 | Yeah, it's way too crazy.

00:38:46.360 | Elon, what do you think is going on that led to Boeing building the Starliner the way that

00:38:53.920 | they did?

00:38:54.920 | They were able to get it up.

00:38:57.000 | But not complete.

00:38:59.280 | But can't complete.

00:39:01.240 | They can't finish.

00:39:02.240 | Can't finish.

00:39:03.240 | I don't understand.

00:39:04.240 | You're going to have to go up and finish.

00:39:09.280 | Well, I mean, I think Boeing is a company that is, you know, they actually do so much

00:39:16.960 | business with the government, they have sort of impedance matched to the government.

00:39:21.100 | So they're like basically one notch away from the government, maybe, they're not far from

00:39:25.800 | the government from an efficiency standpoint, because they derive so much of their revenue

00:39:29.080 | from the government.

00:39:30.080 | And a lot of people think, well, SpaceX is super dependent on the government.

00:39:34.240 | And actually, no, most of our revenue is commercial.

00:39:42.780 | And there's, I think, at least up until perhaps recently, because they have a new CEO who

00:39:50.720 | actually shows up in the factory.

00:39:53.320 | And the CEO before that, I think, had a degree in accounting and never went to the factory,

00:39:58.280 | and didn't know how airplanes flew.

00:40:02.240 | So I think if you are in charge of a company that makes airplanes fly, and a spacecraft

00:40:10.140 | go to orbit, then it can't be a total mystery as to how they work.

00:40:18.200 | So you know, I'm like, sure, if somebody is like running Coke or Pepsi, and they're like

00:40:25.000 | great at marketing or whatever, that's fine, because it's not a sort of technology-dependent

00:40:31.880 | business.

00:40:32.880 | Or if they're running a financial consulting, and their degree is in accounting, that makes

00:40:39.600 | sense.

00:40:40.600 | But I think if you're the cavalry captain, you should know how to ride a horse.

00:40:46.440 | Pretty basic.

00:40:47.440 | Yeah.

00:40:48.440 | Yeah.

00:40:49.440 | Yeah.

00:40:50.440 | It's like, it's disconcerting if the cavalry captain just falls off the horse.

00:40:54.520 | He's not going to inspire the team.

00:40:57.520 | I'm sorry.

00:40:58.520 | I'm scared of horses.

00:40:59.520 | He gets on backwards, and I'm like, oops.

00:41:04.040 | Shifting gears to AI, Peter was here earlier, and he was talking about how so far the only

00:41:08.400 | company to really make money off AI is NVIDIA with the chips.

00:41:11.920 | Do you have a sense yet of where you think the big applications will be from AI?

00:41:18.640 | Is it going to be in enabling self-driving, is it going to be enabling robots, is it transforming

00:41:23.200 | industries?

00:41:24.200 | I mean, it's still, I think, early in terms of where the big business impact is going

00:41:29.000 | to be.

00:41:30.000 | Do you have a sense yet?

00:41:42.960 | I think the spending on AI probably runs ahead of, I mean, it does run ahead of the revenue

00:41:49.800 | right now.

00:41:50.800 | There's no question about that.

00:41:53.800 | But the rate of improvement of AI is faster than any technology I've ever seen by far.

00:42:02.120 | And it's, I mean, for example, the Turing test used to be a thing.

00:42:10.360 | Now your basic open source, random LLM, you're writing on a frigging Raspberry Pi probably

00:42:16.960 | could beat the Turing test.

00:42:22.560 | So there's, I think actually the good future of AI is one of immense prosperity, where

00:42:36.440 | there is an age of abundance, no shortage of goods and services.

00:42:43.280 | Everyone can have whatever they want, unless, except for things we artificially define to

00:42:47.600 | be scarce, like some special artwork.

00:42:52.120 | But anything that is a manufactured good or provided service will, I think, with the advent

00:42:57.240 | of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will trend to zero.

00:43:06.320 | I'm not saying it'll be actually zero, but it'll be, everyone will be able to have anything

00:43:13.680 | they want.

00:43:15.640 | That's the good future.

00:43:16.640 | Of course, in my view, that's probably 80% likely.

00:43:20.840 | Look on the bright side, only 20% probability of annihilation, nothing.

00:43:28.960 | Is the 20%, what does that look like?

00:43:31.520 | I don't know, man.

00:43:33.520 | I mean, frankly, I do have to go engage in some degree of deliberate suspension of disbelief

00:43:38.200 | with respect to AI in order to sleep well, and even then, because I think the actual

00:43:46.280 | issue, the most likely issue is like, well, how do we find meaning in a world where AI

00:43:50.440 | can do everything we can do, but better?

00:43:53.640 | That is perhaps the bigger challenge, although at this point, I know more and more people

00:44:00.360 | who are retired, and they seem to enjoy that life, but I think that maybe there'll be some

00:44:07.800 | crisis of meaning, because the computer can do everything you can do, but better, so maybe

00:44:13.880 | that'll be a challenge, but really, you need the end effectors, you need the autonomous

00:44:25.040 | cars, and you need the humanoid robots, or general purpose robots, but once you have

00:44:32.760 | general purpose humanoid robots, and autonomous vehicles, really, you can build anything,

00:44:44.760 | and I think that there's no actual limit to the size of the economy.

00:44:48.920 | I mean, there's obviously the mass of Earth, that'll be one limit, but the economy is really

00:44:57.600 | just the average productivity per person times number of people.

00:45:02.080 | That's the economy.

00:45:03.840 | And if you've got humanoid robots that can do, where there's no real limit on the number

00:45:10.840 | of humanoid robots, and they can operate very intelligently, then there's no actual limit

00:45:17.680 | to the economy, there's no meaningful limit to the economy.

00:45:21.240 | You guys just turned on Colossus, which is like the largest private compute cluster,

00:45:27.000 | I guess, of GPUs anywhere, is that right?

00:45:30.080 | It's the most powerful supercomputer of any kind.

00:45:34.440 | Which sort of speaks to what David said, and kind of what Peter said, which is a lot of

00:45:38.200 | the kind of economic value so far of AI has entirely gone to NVIDIA, but there are people

00:45:45.360 | with alternatives, and you're actually one with an alternative, now you have a very specific

00:45:48.800 | case, because Dojo's really about images, and large images, huge video.

00:45:53.920 | Yeah, I mean, the Tesla problem is different from the sort of LLM problem.

00:46:03.120 | The nature of the intelligence is actually, and what matters in the AI is different to

00:46:11.920 | the point you just made, which is that in Tesla's case, the context is very long.

00:46:17.480 | So we've got gigabytes of context.

00:46:18.480 | Gigabytes of context, yeah.

00:46:19.480 | Yeah, you've got billions of tokens of context, a nutty amount of context, because you've

00:46:27.640 | got seven cameras, and if you've got several, let's say you've got a minute of several high

00:46:35.640 | def cameras, then that's gigabytes.

00:46:38.400 | So the Tesla problem is you've got to compress a gigantic context into the pixels that actually

00:46:47.080 | matter, and condense that over a time, so you've got to, in both the time dimension

00:46:56.760 | and the space dimension, you've got to compress the pixels in space and the pixels in time,

00:47:05.080 | and then have that inference done on a tiny computer, relatively speaking, a few hundred

00:47:12.320 | gigabytes, it's a Tesla-designed AI inference computer, which is by the way still the best,

00:47:18.320 | there isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers.

00:47:21.160 | So the Tesla-designed AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything

00:47:25.720 | we could buy from any supplier, just by the way, that's kind of a, the Tesla AI chip team

00:47:31.900 | is extremely good.

00:47:32.900 | You guys, in the design, there was a technical paper, and there was a deck that somebody

00:47:36.280 | on your team from Tesla published, and it was stunning to me.

00:47:40.560 | You designed your own transport control layer over Ethernet, you were like, "Ah, Ethernet's

00:47:44.560 | not good enough for us," and you have this TT-COE or something, and you're like, "Oh,

00:47:48.880 | we're just going to reinvent Ethernet and string these chips," it's pretty incredible

00:47:52.120 | stuff that's happening over there.

00:47:54.640 | Yeah.

00:47:55.640 | No, the Tesla chip design team is extremely good.

00:48:01.120 | But is there a world where, for example, other people over time that need some sort of video

00:48:07.380 | use case or image use case could theoretically, you'd say, "Oh, why not, I have some extra

00:48:12.680 | cycles over here," which would kind of make you a competitor of NVIDIA, it's not intentionally

00:48:16.960 | per se, but ... Yeah, I mean, there's this training and inference,

00:48:25.200 | and we do have those two projects at Tesla, we've got Dojo, which is the training computer,

00:48:31.280 | and then our inference chip, which is in every car, inference computer, and Dojo, we've only

00:48:42.420 | had Dojo 1, Dojo 2 is, we should have Dojo 2 in volume towards the end of next year,

00:48:51.020 | and that will be, we think, sort of comparable to a B200 type system, a training system,

00:49:02.700 | and so, I guess there's some potential for that to be used as a service, but Dojo is

00:49:15.880 | just kind of like, I guess I have some improved confidence in Dojo, but I think we won't really

00:49:26.340 | know how good Dojo is until probably version 3, it usually takes three major iterations

00:49:33.200 | on a technology for it to be excellent, and we'll only have the second major iteration

00:49:38.720 | next year, the third iteration, I don't know, maybe late, you know, 26 or something like

00:49:46.760 | that.

00:49:47.760 | How's the Optimist project going, I remember when we talked last, and you said this publicly,

00:49:52.300 | that it's in doing some light testing inside the factory, so it's actually being useful,

00:49:58.820 | what's the build of materials, and when, you know, for something like that at scale, so

00:50:03.380 | when you start making it like you're making the Model 3 now, and there's a million of

00:50:06.260 | them coming off the factory line, what would they cost, $20,000, $30,000, $40,000 you think?

00:50:11.660 | Yeah, I mean, I've discovered really that anything made in sufficient volume will asymptotically

00:50:19.200 | approach the cost of its materials, so some things are constrained by the cost of intellectual

00:50:29.580 | property and like paying for patents and stuff, so a lot of what's in a chip is like paying

00:50:36.580 | royalties and depreciation of the chip fab, but the actual marginal cost of the chips

00:50:42.620 | is very low, so Optimist is obviously a humanoid robot, it weighs much less and is much smaller

00:50:51.020 | than a car, so you could expect that in high volume, and I'd say you also probably need

00:51:00.420 | three production versions of Optimist, so you need to refine the design at least three

00:51:07.060 | major times, and then you need to scale production to sort of the million unit plus per year

00:51:13.500 | level, and I think at that point, the labor and materials on Optimist is probably not

00:51:25.040 | much more than $10,000.

00:51:27.140 | And that's a decade-long journey, maybe?

00:51:28.580 | Basically, think of it like Optimist will cost less than a small car, so at scale volume

00:51:39.020 | with the three major iterations of technology, and so if a small car costs $25,000, it's

00:51:47.380 | probably like $20,000 for an Optimist, for a humanoid robot that can be your buddy like

00:51:54.340 | a combination of R2-D2 and C3PO, but better.

00:51:59.820 | I honestly think people are going to get really attached to their humanoid robot, because

00:52:03.500 | I mean, like you look at sort of, you watch Star Wars, and it's like R2-D2 and C3PO, I

00:52:07.880 | love those guys, you know, they're awesome, and their personality, and I mean, all R2

00:52:16.500 | could do is just beef at you, can't speak English, and C3PO to translate the beefs.

00:52:24.020 | So you're in year two of that, if you did two or three years per iteration or something,

00:52:28.420 | it's a decade-long journey for this to hit some sort of scale?

00:52:32.420 | I would say the major iterations are less than two years, so it's probably on the order

00:52:38.980 | of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.

00:52:46.540 | And at that price point, everybody can afford one, on planet Earth.

00:52:49.860 | I mean, it's going to be that one-to-one, two-to-one, what do you think ultimately,

00:52:53.420 | if we're sitting here in 30 years, the number of robots on the planet versus humans?

00:52:58.620 | Yeah, I think the number of robots will vastly exceed the number of humans.

00:53:03.060 | Vastly, yeah.

00:53:04.060 | Vastly exceed.

00:53:05.060 | I mean, you have to say, who would not want their robot buddy?

00:53:08.140 | Everyone wants a robot buddy.

00:53:11.020 | Totally.

00:53:12.020 | You know, this is like, especially if it can, you know, it can take care of your, take your

00:53:19.740 | dog for a walk, it could mow the lawn, it could watch your kids, it could, you know,

00:53:26.940 | like, it could teach your kids, it could...

00:53:29.180 | We could also send it to Mars.

00:53:31.020 | Yeah, absolutely.

00:53:32.020 | We could send a lot of robots to Mars to do the work needed to make it a colonized planet

00:53:37.180 | for humans.

00:53:38.180 | Mars is already a robot planet.

00:53:39.180 | There's like a whole bunch of, you know, robots, like rovers and...

00:53:42.100 | Only robots.

00:53:43.100 | Helicopter.

00:53:44.100 | Yes, only robots.

00:53:45.540 | So yeah, no, I think the sort of useful humanoid robot opportunity is the single biggest opportunity

00:53:54.860 | ever.

00:54:01.300 | Because if you assume like, I mean, the ratio of humanoid robots to humans is going to be

00:54:06.460 | at least two to one, maybe three to one, because everybody will want one, and then there'll

00:54:11.340 | be a bunch of robots that you don't see that are making goods and services.

00:54:14.220 | And you think it's a general, one generalized robot that then learns how to do different

00:54:18.180 | tasks or...

00:54:19.180 | Yeah.

00:54:20.180 | I mean, we are a generalized robot.

00:54:22.740 | Yeah, we're a generalized, non-robot.

00:54:24.940 | We're just made of meat.

00:54:25.940 | Yeah, exactly.

00:54:26.940 | We're a meatball.

00:54:27.940 | We're a generalized meatball.

00:54:28.940 | Yeah, I mean, I'm operating my meat puppet, you know.

00:54:33.220 | So yeah, we are actually...

00:54:35.660 | And by the way, it turns out like, as we're designing Optimus, we sort of learn more and

00:54:40.780 | more about why humans are shaped the way they're shaped.

00:54:45.380 | And you know, and why we have five fingers and why your little finger is smaller than

00:54:50.020 | your index finger, obviously why you have opposable thumbs, but also why, for example,

00:54:58.340 | the muscles, the major muscles that operate your hand are actually in your forearm.

00:55:04.340 | And your fingers are primarily operated, like...

00:55:09.900 | The muscles that actuate your fingers are located, the vast majority of your finger

00:55:15.740 | strength is actually coming from your forearm, and your fingers are being operated by tendons,

00:55:21.340 | little strings.

00:55:24.900 | And so the current version of the Optimus hand has the actuators in the hand and has

00:55:31.540 | only 11 degrees of freedom, so it doesn't have all the degrees of freedom of human hand,

00:55:36.940 | which has, depending on how you count it, roughly 25 degrees of freedom.

00:55:45.040 | And it's also like, not strong enough in certain ways, because the actuators have to fit in

00:55:49.660 | the hand.

00:55:51.460 | So the next generation Optimus hand, which we have in prototype form, the actuators have

00:55:57.740 | moved to the forearm, just like a human, and they operate the fingers through cables, just

00:56:03.220 | like a human hand.

00:56:05.300 | And then the next generation hand has 22 degrees of freedom, which we think is enough to do

00:56:13.220 | almost anything that a human can do.

00:56:18.300 | And presumably, I think it was written that X and Tesla may work together and provide

00:56:25.420 | services, but my immediate thought went to, "Oh, if you just provide a grok to the robot,

00:56:28.940 | then the robot has a personality and can process voice and video and images and all of that

00:56:34.260 | stuff."

00:56:35.260 | It's the UI.

00:56:36.260 | That's where we wrap here.

00:56:37.940 | I think everybody talks about all the projects you're working on, but people don't know you

00:56:44.020 | have a great sense of humor.

00:56:45.020 | That's not true.

00:56:46.020 | Oh, you do.

00:56:47.020 | You do.

00:56:48.020 | People don't see it, but I would say, I know for me, the funniest week of my life, or one

00:56:52.740 | of the funniest, was when you did SNL and I got to tag along.

00:56:57.940 | Maybe you saw it.

00:57:00.380 | Maybe behind the scenes, some of your funniest recollections of that chaotic, insane week

00:57:08.180 | when we laughed for 12 hours a day.

00:57:10.180 | It was a little terrorizing on the first couple of days.

00:57:13.100 | Yeah, I was a bit worried at the beginning there because frankly, nothing was funny.

00:57:19.020 | Day one was rough.

00:57:22.260 | Rough.

00:57:23.260 | Yeah.

00:57:24.260 | Well, it's like a rule, but can't you guys just say it?

00:57:28.420 | Just say the stuff that got on the cut.

00:57:32.500 | The funniest skits were the ones they didn't let you do.

00:57:34.220 | That's what I'm saying.

00:57:35.220 | Can you just say it?

00:57:36.220 | There were a couple of funny ones, yeah, that they didn't let you do.

00:57:37.220 | You can say it, so that he doesn't get ... I mean, how much time do we have here?

00:57:40.780 | Well, we should just give him one or two because it was ... In your mind, which one do we regret

00:57:46.100 | most not getting on air?

00:57:50.780 | You really want to hear that?

00:57:51.780 | I mean ... I mean, it was a little spicy.

00:57:52.780 | It was a little funny.

00:57:53.780 | Okay.

00:57:54.780 | Here we go.

00:57:55.780 | All right, here we go, guys.

00:57:58.780 | All right.

00:57:59.780 | So, one of the things that I think everyone's been sort of wondering this whole time is,

00:58:13.540 | is Saturday Night Live actually live?

00:58:18.100 | Like live.

00:58:19.100 | Live, live, live.

00:58:20.100 | Do they have like a delay or like just in case there's a wardrobe malfunction or something

00:58:25.940 | like that?

00:58:26.940 | Right.

00:58:27.940 | Is it like a-

00:58:28.940 | Truly live.

00:58:29.940 | Five second delay?

00:58:30.940 | What's really going on?

00:58:31.940 | But there's a way to test this.

00:58:34.100 | Right.

00:58:35.100 | We came up with a way.

00:58:36.100 | There's a way to test this, which is we don't tell them what's going on.

00:58:41.900 | I walk on and say, "This is the script I'll throw on the ground.

00:58:46.140 | We're going to find out tonight, right now."

00:58:48.740 | If Saturday Night Live.

00:58:49.740 | Saturday Night Live is actually live.

00:58:54.220 | And the way that we're going to do this is I'm going to take my cock out.

00:58:59.960 | This is the greatest pitch ever.

00:59:08.420 | If you see my cock, you know it's true.

00:59:15.620 | And if you don't, it's been a lie.

00:59:17.580 | It's been a lie all these years.

00:59:19.380 | All these years.

00:59:20.380 | We're going to bust them right now.

00:59:23.760 | We're pitching this.

00:59:24.760 | Yeah.

00:59:25.760 | Yeah.

00:59:26.760 | So we're pitching this.

00:59:27.760 | On Zoom.

00:59:28.760 | Yeah.

00:59:29.760 | We're pitching this on Zoom on like a Monday afternoon.

00:59:30.760 | Because it's COVID.

00:59:31.760 | Yeah.

00:59:32.760 | We're like kind of hungover from the weekend.

00:59:33.760 | We're pitching this at noon.

00:59:34.760 | We're in Miami.

00:59:35.760 | Yeah.

00:59:36.760 | And Jason's on.

00:59:37.760 | Mike and you.

00:59:38.760 | Yeah.

00:59:39.760 | And Mike.

00:59:40.760 | My friends who I think are sort of quite funny, Jason's quite funny.

00:59:48.980 | I think Jason's the closest thing to Cartman that exists in real life.

00:59:52.980 | Yes.

00:59:53.980 | We have a joke going that he's Butters and I'm Cartman.

01:00:00.100 | Yeah.

01:00:01.100 | And my friend Mike's pretty funny too.

01:00:05.620 | So we come in like just like guns blazing with like ideas.

01:00:11.500 | And we didn't realize actually that's not how it works and that's normally like actors

01:00:17.720 | and they just get told what to do and like, oh, you mean we can't just like do funny things

01:00:22.940 | that we thought of?

01:00:23.940 | What?

01:00:24.940 | They're watching this.

01:00:25.940 | And on the Zoom, they're aghast at Elon's pitch.

01:00:29.140 | Yeah.

01:00:30.140 | It's silence.

01:00:31.140 | And I'm like, is this thing working?

01:00:34.140 | Is this?

01:00:35.140 | Are we muted?

01:00:36.140 | Is our mic on?

01:00:37.140 | And they're like, we hear you.

01:00:38.140 | Yeah.

01:00:39.140 | And then after a long silence, like Mike just says the word "crickets."

01:00:43.060 | And they're not laughing.

01:00:45.700 | Not even a chuckle.

01:00:47.860 | What's going on here?

01:00:48.860 | And then Elon explains the punchline, which is.

01:00:51.340 | Exactly.

01:00:52.340 | So there's more to it, okay.

01:00:57.460 | That's just the beginning.

01:00:59.740 | So Elon says.

01:01:00.740 | So then I'm like, so, so, so, so I said like, I'm, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm going to reach down

01:01:10.700 | into my pants and I stuck my hand on my pants and I'm going to, and I'm, and I want to pull

01:01:15.540 | my cock out and I tell this to the audience and the audience is going to be like, what?

01:01:22.340 | And then, and then, and then, and then I pull out a baby rooster, you know?

01:01:31.060 | And it's like, okay, this is kind of PG, you know, it's like, not that bad.

01:01:36.660 | This is my tiny cock.

01:01:38.340 | And, and it's like, what do you think?

01:01:44.820 | And so then, and do you think it's a nice cock?

01:01:47.820 | I mean, I like it.

01:01:48.820 | And I pitch, I'm like, and then Kate McKinnon walks out.

01:01:52.020 | Yeah, exactly.

01:01:53.020 | And I'm like, oh no, but you haven't heard half of it, so Kate McKinnon comes out and

01:01:56.340 | she says, Elon, I expected you would have a bigger cock.

01:02:00.940 | Yeah.

01:02:01.940 | I was like, I don't mean to disappoint you, Kate, but yeah.

01:02:06.060 | But I hope you like it anyway.

01:02:10.260 | Kate's got to come out with, with, with her cat.

01:02:12.780 | Okay.

01:02:13.780 | Right.

01:02:14.780 | So you can see where this is going.

01:02:18.380 | And I say nice.

01:02:19.380 | Wow.

01:02:20.380 | That's, that's a, that's a, that's a nice pussy you've got there, Kate.

01:02:24.820 | Wow.

01:02:25.820 | That's amazing.

01:02:27.740 | It looks a little wet.

01:02:28.740 | Was it raining outside?

01:02:29.740 | Do you mind if I stroke your pussy?

01:02:35.980 | Is that cool?

01:02:36.980 | It's like, oh no, Elon, actually, can I hold your cock?

01:02:41.940 | Of course, Kate, you definitely hold my cock.

01:02:45.740 | And then, you know, we exchanged and I think just the audio version of this was pretty

01:02:48.860 | good.

01:02:49.860 | Right.

01:02:50.860 | And, and, and, you know, it's just like, wow, you, I really like stroking your cock.

01:02:57.580 | And I was like, I'm really enjoying stroking your pussy.

01:03:05.460 | Yes, of course.

01:03:07.020 | And yeah, so, you know, they're looking at us like, oh my God, what have we done inviting

01:03:13.660 | these lunatics on the program?

01:03:15.660 | Yeah.

01:03:16.660 | And then they said, they said like, well, um, it is, uh, it is Mother's Day.

01:03:21.420 | It's Mother's Day, we might not want to go with this.

01:03:26.780 | A lot of moms in the audience, and I'm like, well, that's a good point.

01:03:30.540 | Fair, fair.

01:03:31.540 | It might be a bit uncomfortable for all the moms in the audience, maybe, I don't know.

01:03:34.460 | I don't know.

01:03:35.460 | Maybe they'll dig it.

01:03:36.460 | Maybe they'll like it.

01:03:37.460 | Uh, so, uh, yeah, that was, that's the, um, that's the, that's the, that's the, um, cold

01:03:45.860 | open that didn't make it.

01:03:47.140 | We didn't get that on the air, um, but, uh, we did fight for Doge.

01:03:53.020 | Yes.

01:03:54.020 | And we got Doge on the air.

01:03:55.020 | Well, I mean, there's a bunch of things that I said that were just not on the script.

01:03:57.180 | Like if they have these like cue cards for what you're supposed to say, and I just didn't

01:03:59.860 | say it.

01:04:00.860 | I just went off the rails.

01:04:01.860 | Yeah.

01:04:02.860 | They didn't see that coming.

01:04:03.860 | Yeah, it's live.

01:04:04.860 | It's live.

01:04:05.860 | And, uh, so the, Elon wanted to do Doge.

01:04:13.940 | This is the other one.

01:04:14.940 | Elon wanted to do Doge on late night and he says, um, hey, Jake, how can you, um, make

01:04:18.540 | sure?

01:04:19.540 | Oh yeah.

01:04:20.540 | I wanted to do the Doge father.

01:04:21.540 | Like you sort of redo the, you know, that scene from, uh, the, the, the Godfather.

01:04:25.460 | I mean, you kind of need the music to cue things up.

01:04:28.020 | You bring me on my daughter's wedding and you ask for Doge.

01:04:36.380 | Yeah.

01:04:37.380 | You got Marlon Brando.

01:04:38.380 | I give you Bitcoin, but you want Doge.

01:04:40.300 | Exactly.

01:04:41.300 | You really got to set the mood.

01:04:42.300 | You got to have the tuxedo and the sort of job office and the, you know, and you're gonna

01:04:46.260 | have like Marlon Brando and I said, you come to me on this day of my Doge's wedding and

01:04:57.220 | you ask me for your private keys.

01:05:02.420 | Are you even a friend?

01:05:04.540 | You call me the Doge father.

01:05:08.280 | So that's potential, that great potential.

01:05:14.500 | So they come to me and I'm, I'm talking to Colin, um, and Joe's who's got a great sense

01:05:19.940 | of humor and he's amazing.

01:05:20.940 | He loves Elon and he's like, we can't do it because of the law and stuff like that.

01:05:24.820 | And the law, the law and liability.

01:05:27.660 | So I said, it's okay.

01:05:29.220 | Elon called Comcast and he put in an offer and they just accepted it, NBC.

01:05:37.640 | So it's fine.

01:05:38.640 | Yeah.

01:05:39.640 | And Colin Jones looks at me and I sold it so good and he's like, you're serious.

01:05:45.560 | I'm like, yep, we own NBC now and he's like, okay, well that kind of changes things, doesn't

01:05:52.760 | it?

01:05:53.760 | I'm like, absolutely.

01:05:54.760 | We're a go on, on Doge.

01:05:56.880 | And then he's like, you're fucking with me and I'm like, I'm fucking with you.

01:06:01.720 | Or are we?

01:06:02.720 | Or are we?

01:06:03.720 | It was the greatest week of, and that like is like two of 10 stories.

01:06:09.080 | We'll save the other eight.

01:06:12.120 | But it was, and I was just so happy for you to see you have a great week of just joy and

01:06:18.600 | fun and letting go.

01:06:19.600 | Cause you were launching rockets, you're dealing with so much bullshit in your life to have

01:06:23.720 | those moments, to share them and just laugh.

01:06:27.480 | It was just so great.

01:06:28.480 | Yeah.

01:06:29.480 | More of those moments.

01:06:30.480 | I think we gotta, we gotta get you back on SNL.

01:06:31.480 | Who wants him back on SNL one more time?

01:06:32.480 | All right, ladies and gentlemen, our bestie, Elon Musk.

01:06:37.480 | Elon Musk.

01:06:38.480 | Elon Musk.

01:06:38.480 | Thank you.

01:06:43.480 | Thank you.

01:06:48.480 | (applause)

01:06:50.720 | [BLANK_AUDIO]

In conversation with Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024

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