E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more

00:00:00.000 | Shout out to a company, Sax and I were doing.

00:00:05.120 | What the hell are you doing?

00:00:06.240 | What are you doing?

00:00:06.560 | What the fuck are you doing?

00:00:07.680 | No, I cannot do that.

00:00:09.400 | Nick, Nick, cut that shit out.

00:00:10.560 | Nick, cut that shit out.

00:00:12.020 | Shut the fuck up.

00:00:13.360 | Beat that shit out.

00:00:14.460 | I just wanted to give a founder a plug.

00:00:16.460 | You are such a scumbag.

00:00:17.740 | What the fuck?

00:00:18.180 | Despite how tired I am, I've woken up now.

00:00:20.400 | Now I'm awake.

00:00:21.080 | You've awakened the drug.

00:00:22.040 | I'm done.

00:00:23.000 | I quit.

00:00:23.560 | I'll give a shout out to which just got acquired by.

00:00:27.200 | Oh my God.

00:00:29.320 | We need plugs.

00:00:31.420 | Let your winners ride.

00:00:34.300 | Rain man, David.

00:00:36.840 | And it said, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

00:00:44.020 | Love you guys.

00:00:44.560 | Nice.

00:00:44.760 | Queen of.

00:00:45.680 | Hey, everybody.

00:00:50.260 | Welcome to the all in podcast.

00:00:52.000 | I'm Jason Calacanis with us today.

00:00:53.800 | The rain man himself calling in from an undisclosed location.

00:00:58.080 | The queen of.

00:00:58.980 | And of course the dictator himself.

00:01:01.460 | Chamath Pali.

00:01:02.400 | Hopped to you.

00:01:03.300 | All right, boys.

00:01:05.120 | How are we doing?

00:01:06.000 | Feel flow energy today.

00:01:07.380 | What's going on?

00:01:07.980 | Great.

00:01:08.540 | How are you?

00:01:09.420 | What's going on?

00:01:09.980 | Let's go.

00:01:10.560 | Let's do this.

00:01:11.480 | I love it.

00:01:13.100 | Let's go.

00:01:13.740 | Love it.

00:01:14.040 | All right.

00:01:15.440 | You're hot.

00:01:15.840 | You're coming in hot.

00:01:16.600 | Well, yeah.

00:01:17.660 | Breaking news.

00:01:18.660 | Breaking news.

00:01:19.860 | Uh, Biden has announced, uh, his capital gains tax hike.

00:01:26.420 | I don't think this impacts any of us.

00:01:28.540 | But Biden will propose almost doubling the capital gains tax rate for wealthy

00:01:33.380 | individuals from 20% to not 25, not 28, 39.6% to help pay for the social spending.

00:01:43.600 | And in equality for those earning 1 million or more.

00:01:48.820 | So nobody on this call federal tax rates could be as high as 43.4%.

00:01:53.060 | The capital gains increase would raise 370 billion over a decade.

00:01:56.740 | Yada, yada.

00:01:58.300 | For New Yorkers, the combined state and federal capital gains rate could be as high as 52.22%

00:02:05.020 | in Californians.

00:02:06.100 | 56.7%.

00:02:09.700 | Biden has previously warned that those earning over 400,000 can expect to pay more in taxes.

00:02:14.620 | This was just breaking news a couple of hours before we started the pod and the stock market is,

00:02:22.060 | uh, down and people are freaking out.

00:02:25.340 | We should do a.

00:02:26.340 | J Cal, I want to hear your take on this.

00:02:27.940 | Actually.

00:02:28.280 | Why didn't you tell me Biden was going to do this?

00:02:32.520 | I would have voted for Trump.

00:02:33.640 | You didn't tell me this is going to hit me so hard.

00:02:36.040 | No, J Cal was ranting on this topic 15 minutes ago.

00:02:40.120 | We were talking and I'm like, dummy, what did you think was going to happen?

00:02:44.760 | You know, he's sitting there going off.

00:02:47.160 | He's sitting there going off.

00:02:48.200 | It's like, what did you expect?

00:02:49.480 | Just before we get into it, we should do a quick primer on what this means, right?

00:02:52.840 | So capital gains taxes are the taxes you pay when you make an investment and you sell that investment

00:02:57.160 | at a profit.

00:02:57.800 | The, the, you pay a tax on the profit you make, and there's a difference between capital gains on

00:03:03.160 | the short term, which means less than one year and long-term, which means you've had the investment

00:03:07.560 | for more than a year.

00:03:08.840 | So economic policy historically has dictated that having a low capital gains tax rate relative to

00:03:14.360 | what, you know, an income tax rate might make.

00:03:16.440 | It might be incentivizes people to make long-term investments and it gets more money moving in the

00:03:22.280 | economy.

00:03:22.680 | And as a result, um, you know, the economy will grow.

00:03:25.560 | And so the idea of.

00:03:27.480 | Yeah.

00:03:27.800 | Increasing the long-term capital gains tax from 20%, which it currently is to 40%,

00:03:32.520 | um, is a real striking, you know, economic policy shift rationalized as, you know, we're going to

00:03:38.680 | save, uh, you know, we're going to use this money for social spending.

00:03:41.880 | But I think the historical context and what this is, is really important as we get into

00:03:46.280 | the conversation.

00:03:47.000 | Um, and just speaking historically, you know, the, the, the maximum tax rate on long-term

00:03:51.560 | capital gains got up to 40% sacks.

00:03:55.880 | You probably have the history on this in 19.

00:03:58.040 | 78 for a year, right.

00:03:59.400 | Or like 76 to 78.

00:04:00.920 | And then it's been largely, you know, 15 to 20% for the last 20 years or so.

00:04:05.800 | Um, and so to jump up, yeah.

00:04:08.280 | And prior to that, in the early part of the 20th century, it was like 25% pretty consistently

00:04:12.040 | for a long time.

00:04:13.080 | So to jump up to 40%, it's a really big shift.

00:04:15.640 | And there's a lot of debate around the economic implications of doing this.

00:04:19.960 | Uh, I thought that was important.

00:04:21.160 | Yeah.

00:04:21.480 | Let's take a step back and actually see the forest from the trees and the forest from

00:04:24.920 | the trees is that.

00:04:25.720 | I don't think.

00:04:27.160 | Biden, um, thinks that it's a credible plan.

00:04:32.440 | Um, in as much as I probably think, uh, he needs, you know, this is like it's performative,

00:04:40.440 | um, because it was a lot larger.

00:04:42.840 | The number, the headline number was a lot larger than, um, what people were whispering

00:04:48.440 | was going to be the number, right.

00:04:49.480 | It was supposed to be like in the low thirties or maybe kind of like, you know, 33, 34.

00:04:54.040 | Um, and then all of a sudden, like to come out of.

00:04:56.920 | 39.6, I think it's almost like, okay, he's, he's giving the pound of flesh to, uh, the,

00:05:04.600 | the left.

00:05:05.720 | Kind of like woke mob of the democratic party who probably doesn't understand how capitalism

00:05:12.440 | works in the first place and doesn't care because they're not, they're not participants

00:05:15.960 | in it.

00:05:16.200 | Now, the, the, my reaction is, I don't think it's going to pass.

00:05:19.640 | I think it's going to be really tough to get done.

00:05:21.480 | And I think it probably, you know, maybe, maybe there's a watered down version, but

00:05:25.080 | this version, I, I, I'm not sure.

00:05:26.600 | I'm not super worried about, and then it just comes back to the same thing over and over

00:05:31.880 | the, the fewer, the number of people that get to participate in the growth and see the

00:05:36.360 | upside, the more there are that just wants to just kind of, you know, tear it all down.

00:05:40.760 | And so, I don't know, it's just yet another signal that we have these structural issues

00:05:45.160 | to fix.

00:05:45.560 | It's not reasonable that a few people get super rich and everybody else gets left on

00:05:49.240 | the sidelines.

00:05:49.800 | Sacks.

00:05:50.920 | Where are your thoughts?

00:05:51.480 | It's not going to pass, but it's not going to pass.

00:05:53.160 | It's not going to pass.

00:05:53.640 | Is it going to pass?

00:05:54.520 | Is it an opening salvo?

00:05:56.360 | Where he wants to get to 32.

00:05:58.120 | So he's starting at 39.

00:05:59.480 | I think it could pass because I think they're, they're planning to do this tax increase as

00:06:04.920 | part of the second infrastructure bill.

00:06:07.720 | It's not really an infrastructure bill.

00:06:08.920 | They're calling it human infrastructure.

00:06:10.440 | We've talked about this infrastructure is one of the last categories of federal spending.

00:06:14.120 | That's still popular.

00:06:15.320 | So they're rebranding a bunch of social programs as human infrastructure.

00:06:18.840 | I think that bill will pass.

00:06:21.080 | I don't know if the rate will stay at 39.6, but I think there will be a big increase.

00:06:26.120 | Clearly in the cap gains rate.

00:06:29.000 | I mean, I think it's worth remembering how it got to 20%.

00:06:33.720 | It got to 20% because Bill Clinton lowered it from 28 to 20 as part of an overall package

00:06:40.360 | of tax reforms that he did in the, in the sort of the mid nineties.

00:06:46.360 | And, you know, that led to some of the best years of economic performance, GDP growth

00:06:52.280 | in the U S productivity growth deficit reduction.

00:06:55.880 | You know, and so, you know, I think we're, we're, we are experimenting with breaking

00:07:03.080 | something that's been working, I think pretty well since the, the Reagan Clinton years which

00:07:09.400 | is to have, you know, reasonably low taxes on capital formation and investment.

00:07:14.360 | I think it's a category error to treat capital gains or to think about it just as income.

00:07:20.120 | You have to remember that all of this money has already been taxed once, right?

00:07:24.120 | So you make the money the first time.

00:07:25.640 | As income you earn it, you pay tax on it.

00:07:28.680 | Then you decide to save some of it and invest it.

00:07:31.480 | And then you get taxed again on that amount.

00:07:33.560 | And so, so capital gains is a form of double taxation.

00:07:37.480 | That was the original reason.

00:07:39.400 | One of the reasons to have a different tax rate for it.

00:07:41.880 | And you know, I think that this risk kind of messing up the economic recovery that's

00:07:49.800 | really underway already.

00:07:50.840 | By the way, think about what just happens to any organization.

00:07:55.400 | I mean, you know, you have a lot of people in the organization that has to pay cap gains,

00:08:00.280 | right?

00:08:00.680 | It's not just individuals.

00:08:01.720 | Like last time I checked organizations aren't exempt from cap gains for profit organizations.

00:08:06.760 | And I don't exactly know what they will do as well.

00:08:12.680 | So, you know, you, you, you're putting a lot of people under a huge strain when you double

00:08:17.320 | the, the, the effective rate of return.

00:08:19.720 | So, you know, if you're, for example, like a pension fund, right?

00:08:23.960 | And you have an enormous investment in,

00:08:25.160 | in a private equity fund or a hedge fund.

00:08:26.920 | Part of these things is that, you know, there are these complete pass through vehicles.

00:08:31.400 | And so as long as like you've structured yourself in a way where you don't have to

00:08:35.640 | pay that tax, I think, I guess you're indifferent, but if you're any organization or institution

00:08:39.880 | or a person or a collection of people that bears that tax, all of a sudden, you know,

00:08:45.960 | your returns have been basically cut in half.

00:08:48.120 | That's pretty nuts.

00:08:50.280 | Let's talk about the average Joe for a second or Jane, as it were.

00:08:54.920 | 401ks would take a hit here.

00:08:57.320 | And then when you go to your retirement and you have to liquidate them.

00:08:59.960 | You know, you don't pay tax on the, on the gains.

00:09:01.480 | You don't pay tax on that.

00:09:02.840 | Yeah.

00:09:03.080 | You don't pay tax on the 401k gains during your.

00:09:05.320 | Otherwise your portfolio, because 401k is going to be a small amount.

00:09:09.080 | You can contribute to it in a year.

00:09:10.200 | So retirees who happen to have stock market gains or cryptocurrency, people trading that.

00:09:15.320 | Yeah.

00:09:15.480 | You'll basically pay the same as income tax as opposed to paying a lower tax.

00:09:20.360 | So would a.

00:09:21.480 | It'll diminish investment, Jason.

00:09:23.000 | It's exactly what David says, which is that.

00:09:24.680 | On the, on a marginal basis, what will happen is inflation probably goes up because people

00:09:28.920 | just decide to consume rather than invest because they think, well, what's the point?

00:09:33.960 | You know, there's already risk that I bear.

00:09:36.120 | And so, you know, the, the earliest risk assets, right?

00:09:39.000 | The riskiest ones that we all participate in, which is early stage venture and company

00:09:42.360 | formation.

00:09:42.840 | There's you, you may not be thinking about the capital gains rate, but it's implicit

00:09:47.560 | in the returns that you're expecting for the risk and the time you're going to take.

00:09:51.160 | And, you know, we've been trained to feel that rate.

00:09:54.440 | And if you double that rate from 20 to 40, I suspect that there's a lot of people whose

00:09:59.960 | risk tolerance changes and they're going to feel their after-tax gains differently.

00:10:05.480 | And they'll wonder to themselves, is this worth it?

00:10:08.120 | And then I think what happens as a result is entrepreneurship drags.

00:10:12.280 | I don't know if anybody's done an analysis, but I suspect part of the reason why America

00:10:17.640 | is such a, you know, an amazing like sink for capital, right?

00:10:21.240 | It absorbs capital all around the world is that.

00:10:24.200 | You've created incentives that get people very excited because they think they can get rewarded.

00:10:29.160 | If you take those rewards away, I think the implications are much bigger than just the

00:10:33.480 | cap gains rates here, because as the people change their behavior, then the capital formation

00:10:37.480 | pools outside of the United States changed their behavior.

00:10:39.960 | And the whole thing has a knock-on effect and it was more muted in Clinton.

00:10:44.360 | It was less muted in 78.

00:10:46.360 | It basically didn't exist in the forties and fifties, but it is a huge force today.

00:10:51.000 | I mean, like we are an indebted nation that owes money.

00:10:53.960 | We owe money to all kinds of countries around the world, including China.

00:10:56.600 | We're supposed to generate growth and sort of pay it back.

00:10:58.920 | And where will the growth come from?

00:11:01.080 | If LPs don't want to back venture funds or venture funds, but let's be honest and check out.

00:11:06.600 | Let's be honest and direct.

00:11:08.120 | I mean, are any of you guys going to change your investment behavior?

00:11:12.120 | If the cap gains tax goes to 40%.

00:11:13.960 | No, but there'll be less of it, you know?

00:11:17.720 | Yeah.

00:11:18.120 | So look, anything, anything.

00:11:19.960 | My behavior has changed.

00:11:20.840 | I think my behavior will change.

00:11:22.520 | Yeah.

00:11:22.760 | How will it change?

00:11:23.720 | I think it will change.

00:11:24.440 | It's exactly what David said.

00:11:25.480 | So I just put in a hundred million dollars into a climate change company two weeks ago.

00:11:29.480 | Under this promise, I could only put in 50.

00:11:33.240 | So there's 50 million less progress that's going to happen on that business.

00:11:37.160 | I'm not sure that that was, that's the right answer for what that company is trying to do

00:11:41.320 | in the world.

00:11:41.720 | And the way you're saying that you're saying the profits you would have had from before

00:11:45.960 | are diminished in half.

00:11:47.160 | Therefore you would only have half as much money to invest as an investor.

00:11:50.200 | Right.

00:11:51.320 | So, so however way you want to cut it, whether it's.

00:11:53.480 | Like the 10 companies gets cut down into five or the five, 10 companies that I invest in,

00:11:58.600 | get half my money.

00:11:59.800 | The point is at some point.

00:12:01.160 | The money starts to run out, not just for me, but for everybody else.

00:12:05.160 | Yeah.

00:12:05.320 | Basically at the end of the day, the money goes into the hands of, you know, government

00:12:09.320 | legislators and administrators to decide how that money gets spent.

00:12:13.080 | And it's not in the hands of, uh, capitalist investors to decide where to invest.

00:12:18.280 | That's the fundamental kind of.

00:12:19.480 | Shift that that's going to happen.

00:12:21.640 | Right.

00:12:21.880 | Capital capital has been.

00:12:23.240 | Taken out of the economy.

00:12:24.520 | Risk capital has been taken out of the economy and it's now going to be, you know, spent

00:12:27.960 | by, by government.

00:12:29.000 | Look, any, anything that you tax you punish and disincentivize and anything you subsidize,

00:12:35.000 | you, you create an incentive for there to be more of.

00:12:37.800 | And, you know, so this is just, we, we always talk about these things in terms of, well,

00:12:42.440 | who they're going to hurt.

00:12:43.480 | Is it the, the, or the, this only falls on the backs of rich people.

00:12:46.760 | Um, so we shouldn't care, but the real question is what is this going to do to the economy?

00:12:51.400 | And, you know, I think we've talked in previous podcasts.

00:12:53.000 | The, the last part that we have with Brad Gerstner, it feels like everything.

00:12:56.280 | In the American system is kind of broken except for one thing, which is

00:13:01.800 | this sort of opportunity economy.

00:13:03.400 | That's that's been created by risk capital, right.

00:13:06.440 | And, and people creating new companies, you know, like these big stultifying political

00:13:11.080 | corporations, the S and P 500 are completely broken.

00:13:13.960 | Government's completely broken.

00:13:15.640 | The federal debt is out of control.

00:13:17.800 | Everything's the media is broken.

00:13:19.800 | Everything in America is either broken or needs to be revitalized.

00:13:22.760 | Or reformed, except one thing is working really well, which is risk capital and its allocation

00:13:28.360 | to founders who have nothing but a good idea.

00:13:31.560 | Right.

00:13:32.360 | And when all of a sudden you double the cap gains rate, that is an attack on that opportunity

00:13:37.800 | society.

00:13:38.120 | Now, I think there is a legitimate conversation to be had about how do we spread this sort

00:13:43.320 | of system of opportunity to more and more people.

00:13:46.120 | I think like Brad framed it really well in the last episode, like, how do we get more

00:13:49.800 | people involved in that?

00:13:50.760 | I would submit the answer has a lot to do with.

00:13:52.680 | School choice and charter schools giving people, everyone in this country deserves

00:13:57.400 | to have a first rate education.

00:13:58.760 | And so that is a very legitimate conversation to have, but I think to have punitive taxation

00:14:03.720 | on it is I think it's at risk breaking that last thing that is working so well in, in,

00:14:09.480 | in the American system.

00:14:10.440 | I, I think it's really well said.

00:14:11.640 | And I think this is gonna take redomiciling to another level.

00:14:15.960 | I mean, if you were in New York or California right now, and you were thinking about Wyoming

00:14:20.520 | or Utah or Texas.

00:14:22.600 | Or Florida.

00:14:23.560 | I mean, this kind of makes the decision for you if it does go to 40 and because that's

00:14:29.560 | actually me, would you get to neutral if you left?

00:14:33.400 | And so I, well, I remember, I remember when I moved to the United States in 2000,

00:14:37.800 | the marginal tax bracket that I was in and I was making maybe, you know, a hundred, no,

00:14:44.360 | I was probably making 80 or $90,000 a year was 55%.

00:14:49.480 | And I remember coming to the United States.

00:14:52.520 | And seeing my after my take home pay my first paycheck.

00:14:56.440 | And I was shocked because I was like, you know, I was paying maybe 36% all blended in

00:15:00.920 | federal and local at the time or state at the time in California.

00:15:04.280 | And slowly, slowly, it's creeping up with, with, if you play it out today, where we are

00:15:09.720 | plus New York state just passed laws.

00:15:11.400 | You're gonna be sort of in the 50 to 55%, almost upwards of 56% for certain folks.

00:15:17.160 | And maybe the answer is that's the right thing.

00:15:19.800 | But I think we have to acknowledge that that's.

00:15:22.440 | There's going to be a bunch of unintended consequences.

00:15:24.600 | So maybe the intended consequence is to actually create more equality between the richest few

00:15:31.560 | and, you know, not even the poorest, frankly, because but it'll just be the richest few

00:15:36.760 | and the next richest few, quite honestly, because like, you know, the investing class

00:15:40.600 | is still a small number of people.

00:15:41.720 | But the unintended consequences of that decision, I think, is what exactly what

00:15:46.360 | David said, which is that over the next five or 10 year period, you will, at a practical level,

00:15:52.360 | see less investment.

00:15:54.280 | And the the only way to make that whole is if the government then takes all that money,

00:15:59.160 | and all of a sudden allocates it from their own coffers back into the economy.

00:16:03.000 | And we know that that's not going to happen.

00:16:04.520 | Well, right, that's just going to be riddled with waste and graft and corruption.

00:16:08.120 | So unfortunately, the setup is that, you know, you're going to really impact entrepreneurship.

00:16:13.160 | And then and then I wonder to myself, by the way, guys, like,

00:16:16.440 | what was the actual goal of this, meaning there was 20 or 30 guys that were

00:16:22.280 | just making so much money on their equity. But then that's then then we need to blame like the

00:16:27.080 | these lists like the Forbes billionaires list, because those are inaccurate, because a lot of

00:16:31.640 | these stuff is like, unrealized, realized paper gains. Right. And so they're not they're not

00:16:39.080 | paying any capital gains, because they haven't sold anything. And most of these guys that are

00:16:42.520 | uber uber rich, you know, have no desire to sell because it's for them. It's a control issue to

00:16:47.240 | sell.

00:16:47.800 | I'm not sure the car I'm not sure that the consequence of taxing uber rich people

00:16:52.200 | is the true motivation. I think for some people, maybe it is. But if we just take a step back,

00:16:58.680 | I mean, a year ago, the US debt level was significantly lower than it is today,

00:17:03.560 | we've taken on a tremendous amount of federal debt to fund a series of programs that we believe

00:17:09.800 | we're going to kind of keep, you know, the American population employed and keep our economy

00:17:14.600 | moving. That was a massive burden we accrued and in the past year, so ultimately, over time, the only way

00:17:22.120 | to kind of support this, this new federal budget, and you know, the this new servicing costs that

00:17:28.600 | we've taken on at the government level, you really only have kind of like three options.

00:17:32.760 | Option one is you're going to continue to raise more debt and massively kind of inflate everything

00:17:38.040 | and the dollar declines in value. Option two is to reduce spending, which means starting to cut

00:17:43.640 | these programs. And option three is to raise taxes. And it's pretty clear that option one is

00:17:48.760 | one where we're kind of already at the economic limit.

00:17:52.040 | And option two is going to be very hard to swallow at a time like this. So you can't just cut spending

00:17:56.680 | right now. Across the board, so many aspects of the US economy and so many individuals in the

00:18:01.560 | United States are dependent on the federal government for support. And so option three

00:18:07.000 | is the only real one that's left on the table. And so then the question is, who are you taxing,

00:18:11.480 | you're not going to go tax the people that are struggling, you're going to tax

00:18:14.680 | the corporations and the wealthy. And then the capital gains tax is the one

00:18:18.600 | place where you can kind of say, look, the tax rate that you're paying today is

00:18:21.960 | half of what an income tax rate would be if you were earning that as income.

00:18:24.840 | Let's get it to be fair and even. And I think just just to argue this other side,

00:18:29.560 | like there's a motivation, there's a there's a point of view where this is coming from. It's

00:18:32.600 | not just let's go tax the rich, screw the economy. It's that we find ourselves in a circumstance

00:18:37.480 | where we need to do one of those three things. The most rational to do is to

00:18:40.920 | or the most kind of sensible politically to do is to increase taxation. And this is the

00:18:47.640 | first place to go the most obvious place to go. It's not because

00:18:51.880 | so when you think about like, so for example, like, you know, you would say, okay,

00:18:55.880 | who are the folks that we're talking about, there can be entrepreneurs that are building companies,

00:19:00.120 | again, they're never selling, so they're never going to pay these taxes. Like it's not the case

00:19:04.040 | that Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg is all of a sudden going to write a $40 billion check because

00:19:09.400 | that's, that's not how much they make. That may be how much they're worth,

00:19:13.480 | but they will never sell a single share unless they have to fund some other project, in which

00:19:18.120 | case, three things would you do? So, so what I was

00:19:21.800 | going to say is, so, and then and then you look at somebody else, like, maybe you say, Oh, well,

00:19:25.800 | you know, the people that manage money, like, let's go after those guys, because like, those

00:19:29.240 | guys shouldn't be, you know, rich. But then the problem is, those guys are already paying

00:19:33.480 | w two income, they're already paying nominal income tax rates. That's how

00:19:36.920 | the entire hedge fund industry works right now. You know, you get paid in current income.

00:19:41.960 | And so, okay, so you're not getting their money, because they're already paying at the

00:19:46.280 | prevailing rate. So again, this goes back to if you actually trace the problem and see who it affects,

00:19:51.720 | it's exactly what David said, it's these folks that are in the middle, that are actually putting

00:19:56.120 | the money to work, that are trying to invest in things that now have a very different return

00:20:00.120 | profile. And you're right, the core business that they do, they may still keep doing, but then all

00:20:05.560 | of the incremental things in the future that they want to do, they won't do for example, look at all

00:20:10.360 | of the talk right now about how everybody needs to stand up, you know, more angel investing, more

00:20:15.560 | minority investing, more women, GPS, all of this stuff. Well, all of the folks, let's just be honest,

00:20:21.640 | all the folks that are in a position to put money into those folks are now 50% on a dollar rated

00:20:28.600 | basis poorer if this thing passes. And I bet you what they're going to do is they're not going to

00:20:32.840 | cut their allocations in Sequoia. They're going to cut their allocations to all these other folks.

00:20:37.240 | Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking, Chamath is, I was it going to hurt it's again,

00:20:41.000 | it's going to hurt all the people that you want to get into the game. It's going to hurt all the

00:20:44.600 | people that are here. But the richest richest rich folks that is not unless you expropriate the money

00:20:51.000 | from them.

00:20:51.560 | You're not you're not going to get a single cent.

00:20:53.000 | And then that was the that was the concept of the wealth tax wasn't it that you would take the total

00:20:57.880 | value what you have and just take away 1% a year from Bezos is you know, or Zuckerberg's $100

00:21:03.640 | billion. So would that not have been a better solution than this if you had to pick one a 1%

00:21:08.920 | wealth? That's just that's a people over whatever,

00:21:11.480 | Jason, then then we're no better than a banana republic that could also expropriate a mine,

00:21:15.960 | because we don't like the way that the mining is happening or you know,

00:21:18.760 | another critical asset because the government does

00:21:21.480 | decide that it's important. I mean, what's the difference between a stock and any other asset

00:21:25.080 | that either a person or a corporation owns? It's, it's it's very, I think that the definitions are

00:21:32.200 | thin. They're all the same things at the end of the day.

00:21:34.040 | Let's go back. Let's go back to the federal budget problem. Like how do you address it,

00:21:37.320 | Sax? I mean, what's the right course here?

00:21:38.920 | What I think is amazing is we're we're about to spend we're raising this hundreds of billions

00:21:45.080 | of taxes in order to fund you know, trillions of new spending. I don't really hear the administration's

00:21:51.400 | voice. I don't really hear the government's voice. I don't really hear the government's voice.

00:21:53.960 | I don't really hear the government's voice. I don't really hear the government's voice.

00:21:54.920 | All we're really talking about is that there's too many rich people,

00:21:57.880 | you know, we have these millionaires and billionaires, we got to tax them more.

00:22:00.840 | And so all we're really talking about is whether it's appropriate to be punishing

00:22:04.520 | the rich and super rich. We're not really talking about where's this money going?

00:22:09.080 | Are these programs just fine? What do we get out of it? Exactly. And my point is,

00:22:13.080 | forget about like who it's gonna hurt. I think it's eventually gonna hurt the economy.

00:22:17.800 | And the question is, what do we get out of it? And I think what's amazing is,

00:22:21.320 | this isn't even paying for the big ticket items on the progressive wish list. We're not getting to

00:22:26.520 | universal healthcare with this. We're not getting to universal higher education.

00:22:32.040 | We're not getting to any of the, we're not getting to like forgiveness of student loans

00:22:35.320 | or anything like that. We're not getting to any of the really big ticket items on the progressive

00:22:39.800 | wish list. And yet we're maxing out the taxes relative to anything we've done historically.

00:22:44.440 | And so where do you go from here? You know, because this is just the tip of the iceberg in terms

00:22:51.240 | of the progressive agenda. Doesn't that speak to the problem? Like the fact that we have such

00:22:55.480 | an extraordinarily high debt burden and federal budget that we're kind of scrambling to figure

00:23:02.200 | out a way to kind of make ends meet effectively, right? I mean, because our alternative again,

00:23:06.360 | is to just let massive inflation run, you know, issue a ton of new debt or to cut spending.

00:23:12.680 | No, no, no. But David, either of those seem to be on the table.

00:23:15.640 | No, no, no. You're going to exacerbate this issue. I'm telling you, I know it doesn't seem likely,

00:23:21.160 | but I think on a marginal basis, this will be an incentive to spend. And the reason is that

00:23:26.680 | it's a very frustrating idea for somebody to think about putting money in the ground,

00:23:30.680 | especially a sophisticated investor at a rate of return that just changed in half.

00:23:35.640 | And so from my perspective, I would be more likely to spend because I would rather just YOLO the

00:23:41.320 | money than I would rather put it into the ground because I would be worried that that could then

00:23:46.360 | get taken away from me. It could also change even further and further. And I think that's a very

00:23:51.080 | frustrating idea. I'd rather take a vacation. Again, let's go back to the example. I'd rather

00:23:54.840 | take a vacation with that $10,000 than go on to Jason Syndicate and put it into the hands of folks

00:23:59.800 | because I'm just like, you know what, it's going to turn into even if Jason hits it and I get back,

00:24:04.840 | you know, I'd rather just go on vacation. Enough of those decisions. And I think you have a very

00:24:09.720 | different kind of economy. You have, you know what you have? You have what everybody else has.

00:24:14.280 | So do we reduce spending?

00:24:15.960 | I think you have to reduce expenses. I think that we have an infrastructure that is not

00:24:21.000 | well accounted for. Meaning if you're a company, you can go to a company like Tableau, you can go

00:24:26.120 | to a company like, you know, pick your pick your metrics company. And within, you know, a few weeks

00:24:31.400 | and months of work, you can literally understand where all the dollars are, right? You can

00:24:35.400 | understand your business and you can figure out where money is being wasted and where it's not.

00:24:39.480 | In a government that's impossible to do, right? Because you have these laws and these laws are

00:24:45.560 | artificial constructs that we construct. And those artificial constructs are influenced by

00:24:50.920 | money in and of itself. And so these dollar flows are impossible to map. So you don't know where it

00:24:55.320 | goes. So for example, the $700 billion budget in the Pentagon, does anybody have any idea what the

00:25:00.920 | ROI is on that? Or even a way to measure it, like even to actually make it simple? What like if you

00:25:06.600 | were if you had $700 billion of investment capital, the market has a really simple way of saying,

00:25:12.920 | Okay, David, what's your ROIC? What's your return on invested capital, and

00:25:17.160 | you can say all kinds of fancy things, you can have all kinds of fancy

00:25:20.840 | projects or simple projects. But at the end of the day, what is measurable is a dollar in and

00:25:25.800 | what that dollar grew into. And that's a return on invested capital, it is impossible to know that.

00:25:30.760 | And so you know, we could say, for example, you could define it and say, Well,

00:25:34.360 | I'm going to basically get every single person to graduate high school. And now I'm going to

00:25:40.840 | spend $500 billion a year to make sure that the graduation rate is 100%. That would be

00:25:45.640 | an incredible goal. You know what, that is absolutely measurable, right? And and you'd

00:25:50.760 | be able to back into all of these programs and the one that's ones that didn't work, you'd cut,

00:25:55.560 | you know, and you'd end up with what David said, which is school vouchers. I mean, just

00:25:59.320 | I think I think the absence of that accountability, Chamath has led us to a scary dilemma. And the

00:26:05.000 | dilemma is over 10 million Americans are directly employed by federal government.

00:26:09.960 | And a large swath of the remainder of the economy is supported by federal government spending,

00:26:15.720 | which is basically your point, right? So large, large amounts of defense and military construction,

00:26:20.680 | health care and pharma, I mean, the list goes on, but like the direct employees of the federal

00:26:25.240 | government, plus the amount of revenue that depends on federal spending is so significant now,

00:26:30.120 | as a percent of the total income generated by Americans, that it is very hard to say, like,

00:26:34.920 | let's create accountability in a system when so much of the economy is functionally dependent on

00:26:39.560 | it. Am I missing something? Sachs? Like, I mean, isn't that the circumstance we're in right now?

00:26:43.720 | Yeah, I mean, the thing that like, is amazing to me is, you know, I lived through the 1980s and

00:26:48.600 | 1990s, like, like, you know, it's like, you know, you're a business owner, you're a business owner,

00:26:50.600 | you guys did from 1982 to 2000. That 18 year period, we had sort of an unrivaled economic

00:26:58.600 | performance, it was roughly around, we had two bad years under George Herbert Walker Bush, that's why

00:27:02.680 | he lost reelection. But we had close to 40% growth in GDP. Every year, we had great productivity.

00:27:09.960 | And we had massive deficit reduction. It's the last 4% a year. Yeah, and we and we had we actually

00:27:17.800 | had government's surpluses, budget surpluses.

00:27:20.520 | Yeah, we had a lot of

00:27:36.680 | that.

00:27:37.000 | Yeah, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot of

00:27:39.640 | that. And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot of

00:27:41.640 | that. And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot of that.

00:27:50.440 | And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot

00:27:50.920 | that. And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we had a lot of that. And, you know, we

00:27:51.960 | know that works, you know, we know that works. I and you know, somehow we've moved away from what

00:27:56.680 | we learned in that time period, because, you know, I think the the left in this country has has become

00:28:03.160 | kind of, you know, has embraced this,

00:28:05.560 | we're saying the same thing, you set up the incentives for people to invest, they do,

00:28:09.240 | if you set up the incentives for people to spend, they will do that as well.

00:28:13.400 | And I see this, I think Chamath is exactly right,

00:28:16.200 | there are a lot of people and you use the example of the syndicate.com. When I do my syndicate,

00:28:20.360 | deals, there are people who are recreationally saying, you know what, I love the idea of putting

00:28:24.520 | five or 10k into a flyer, they're gonna, you know, half of them will go away a third of them,

00:28:29.480 | all these people who are, you know, involved in day trading, or crypto or real estate investing,

00:28:35.880 | they're gonna look at and say, Is this worth the time? Or is it worth this amount of time,

00:28:40.200 | maybe I'll cut back from doing 40 hours a week of this to 20.

00:28:43.160 | And if you look at what happened, crypto people, they went to Puerto Rico,

00:28:46.440 | you look what happened to venture capitalists and CEOs, they went to Florida, Miami, Austin,

00:28:50.280 | New York, this is gonna, if it does pass, you could be pushing people to Singapore.

00:28:54.760 | Well, we have another very complicated problem. And this is what freebird brought up, which is,

00:28:58.760 | and I don't know the answer, David. So I'm trying to I'm actually talking around your question,

00:29:02.840 | because I think it's a it's, it's the right absolute question. But think about this,

00:29:07.560 | what happens in a world where now let's just say that the revenue of the government goes up,

00:29:12.040 | right? But outcomes stay the same or get worse.

00:29:15.240 | And at the same time, and you could claim that that's effectively what's been happening over the

00:29:19.960 | last 20 years.

00:29:20.200 | 20 or 30 years, right? Government revenues have gone up, impact to stay the same or probably been

00:29:25.000 | net negative. But then at the same time, you have this, you know, program of quantitative easing,

00:29:30.200 | where then you can essentially print money on demand. And when you think about that,

00:29:34.840 | it's like, wait a minute, I am giving you money. But then then you are also going to

00:29:39.560 | the photocopier machine with my money to make more money. And all of that total money does less

00:29:45.320 | than what it did when it was half that or a quarter or a third of it. That's a very scary real

00:29:50.120 | ization, I think that people, you know, will eventually come to. And I don't know what the

00:29:55.160 | answer to that is. I, you know, I think David Saxey, who said it was just like, you know,

00:29:59.720 | the states are this incredible a B test, right? Because you get to test like theories,

00:30:03.720 | right? And you have you have now every complexion of theory, you have like,

00:30:07.480 | you know, the low tax dates, the no tax dates, the mid tax dates, you have high real estate taxes,

00:30:11.640 | low real estate taxes, high estate tax, whatever, you get every grab bag of incentives.

00:30:15.800 | And you're going to see but the problem is that was assuming that the federal government kind of mostly

00:30:20.040 | stayed out of the way. Right? You have this massive overlay.

00:30:24.280 | Yeah, I just posted a chart in the chat that Nick can put up, which is federal spending,

00:30:28.840 | federal outlays of percentage of GDP. And it's really interesting, because federal outlays of

00:30:34.280 | percent of GDP have generally been around the 20% line plus or minus a couple of percent

00:30:40.520 | since you know, the 1980s. And last year, in 2019, it was 20.7%. It jumped to 31.7%.

00:30:49.960 | It was 2.3% under COVID. And it now feels like we're trying to make this new level of, you know,

00:30:55.720 | going from 20 to 30 permanent. It's like mask mask wearing.

00:30:59.880 | Well, the the problem. The problem is the only time we did that in history was in World War Two.

00:31:04.360 | Now we were trying to fight the Nazis, which was worth spending the money on.

00:31:07.560 | Yeah, I would say that was a good use of capital.

00:31:09.240 | But it's very step back, right? I mean, what starts out as temporary becomes permanent?

00:31:13.960 | Is that kind of the concern?

00:31:15.240 | Well, that's what that's what Milton Friedman said is there's nothing

00:31:17.560 | quite so permanent as a temporary government program. Right?

00:31:19.880 | Right. But but what they're

00:31:22.280 | threatening to make permanent is this new permanently higher level of federal spending

00:31:25.640 | in the economy. And I think it's a very dangerous experiment because it either takes tremendous

00:31:31.720 | money printing to support it, or a tremendous tax burden. And neither one of them is good for

00:31:36.280 | the economy. By the way, you know, again, when Bill Clinton left office, I remember, you know,

00:31:40.120 | you can go to the time machine for whitehouse.gov when he left in 2000. And he bragged about how

00:31:49.800 | his eight years as president, they reduce federal spending from 22% of the economy to 18% of the

00:31:55.960 | economy. Can you imagine a Democrat today boasting of that?

00:31:59.800 | Or even a Republican? I mean, what? Who was the guy who was your guy who was like,

00:32:05.000 | the Tea Party people who there was somebody who was like in charge of the Senate?

00:32:09.080 | Rand Paul?

00:32:09.960 | I don't know who it was. But it was just like, we got to cut spending.

00:32:12.120 | Oh, yeah. Ryan, the Speaker, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. Yeah.

00:32:17.960 | Paul Ryan was like,

00:32:19.720 | based on this.

00:32:20.440 | Yes. But spending restraints kind of gone out the window and in both parties,

00:32:24.680 | and the Republic, it did, it did happen under Trump, the Republicans don't seem to find their

00:32:29.320 | principles on spending unless and until there's a Democrat in the White House. So they definitely

00:32:33.640 | deserve their share of the blame on this. But But we do seem to be entering a new territory here

00:32:38.840 | of you know, this, again, levels of spending we've never seen before.

00:32:43.000 | It's incredible. It's absolutely the problem. The problem is,

00:32:45.880 | it would be so much better if we just said we're going to do this one very specific thing.

00:32:49.640 | With a huge number attached to it, like I would rather say, we're going to Mars, here's

00:32:55.240 | a trillion dollars, we're cutting student debt, here's a trillion dollars, we're going to double

00:33:01.480 | down on cyber, and we're going to get, you know, completely pivot the military or something. And

00:33:05.960 | here's 500 billion, whatever, something aspirational, that is not just anti rich

00:33:11.320 | people. Let's tax.

00:33:12.360 | Right now we have we have labels, we have a label. And then we have a spaghetti mess of spending

00:33:17.880 | that just isn't really attached to what we're doing. And that's why we're doing this. And then we're

00:33:19.560 | what the label means and none of it is accountable. And so you don't really get anything for it.

00:33:24.360 | I know this is a silly question, but why wouldn't we test this and say,

00:33:29.080 | "Hey, 20, 40, there are numbers between these two, maybe we'll increase it two percent a year

00:33:36.120 | for eight years, and we'll see what happens." I'm sorry, but Jason, this is the other

00:33:40.440 | problem with like this idea of American exceptionalism, we believe that we can't

00:33:44.200 | learn anything from anybody else and that's also not true. We actually know what it looks like when

00:33:49.240 | you have government as a massive portion of the economy. We also know examples where government

00:33:54.520 | basically enables human capital outcomes but remains relatively small and fixed. Singapore,

00:34:01.480 | there's this incredible example where I think right when Lee Kuan Yew became the head of

00:34:10.440 | Singapore, the GDP of Singapore was the same as the GDP of Jamaica. What you saw was this complete

00:34:18.920 | divergence in these two countries. And think about this country, which is basically this

00:34:23.400 | little spot of land surrounded and apolitical, areligious, surrounded by these Muslim countries,

00:34:33.240 | and they still thrived and they kicked ass. They were never invaded, et cetera, et cetera.

00:34:37.800 | And underneath that was this belief that it's what you said, Friedberg, where you focus on an outcome,

00:34:43.800 | you spend against the outcome, and you try to measure in a reasonable way, and you double down

00:34:47.960 | on the things that work. Jason:

00:34:48.600 | And then on the other hand, if you look at Europe, Europe is a good example when

00:34:51.960 | spending sometimes for the greater good in the best interest can run amok.

00:34:55.960 | And really what happens is you start to stagnate.

00:34:58.680 | Yeah. And Singapore is only what, six million people? I mean, it's like Ireland or

00:35:03.320 | Norway or Denmark. I mean, this is not a huge place.

00:35:06.600 | It sounds like we didn't solve any problems in that last piece.

00:35:08.840 | Yeah, we didn't solve it. I mean, what do we think is going to happen in four years? Does

00:35:12.520 | this give Donald Trump a clear path into office if he said, "Hey, we're on lower taxes again?"

00:35:18.280 | The worst case scenario is you see what happened in France when they had that 75%

00:35:21.720 | super tax, and then they introduced the wealth tax, and they had massive

00:35:25.240 | emigration of invested dollars out of the country and people out of the country.

00:35:29.880 | They did get rid of George D.A. Pardue. That was a bonus. He went to Russia.

00:35:34.120 | Yeah. Yeah.

00:35:35.480 | At what point... How many red pills do you guys have to take

00:35:39.080 | before you're willing to reassess your political party? Because it seems obvious to me... Now look,

00:35:44.600 | we could talk about how bad they're... What political party do you think...

00:35:46.360 | Hold on. Hold on. We could talk about how bad the Republican Party is, but there's no

00:35:50.680 | question in my mind that the Democratic Party, all the energy, the base, the activists,

00:35:55.480 | and the politicians who have the microphone, they are woke socialists, okay? That is the dominant

00:36:01.000 | ideology in the Democratic Party. And what Biden is doing right now is catering to that.

00:36:05.880 | He's compromising with it.

00:36:06.520 | Yeah, but he wasn't catering to that until this point. He didn't put Bernie

00:36:10.440 | or Elizabeth Warren into any cabinet positions. He kind of marginalized them. And now he's like,

00:36:16.040 | "Okay, let's do something." I mean, would Warren and Bernie have done this?

00:36:19.800 | No, but Jason, I think you're right. This is why I think this is like a sacrificial lamb,

00:36:23.320 | and I don't think anything's going to happen. I think Biden is a fundamental centrist. That's

00:36:27.480 | why I like him. I think he's a...

00:36:28.760 | Boring.

00:36:29.240 | He's a stable, predictable figure. And that's, I think, what you want in the presidency.

00:36:35.080 | I think that this is sort of like, "Okay, you guys want a pound of flesh? Here you go." But

00:36:40.360 | I think he's so politically smart that he probably does have a bunch of millennial woke socialists.

00:36:45.720 | He's probably the only one there who's smart enough to realize this won't get passed. It's not

00:36:50.680 | going to muster enough support.

00:36:51.480 | I don't know. I think I...

00:36:52.760 | Biden is not governing like a centrist right now. He's proposing, what, four trillion of new

00:36:57.080 | spending, new tax increases, and he's just getting started. But look, and I would challenge this

00:37:02.200 | idea just slightly of him being a centrist. What I would say is he's always tacked to the center of

00:37:07.000 | the Democratic Party. So I do think he's a triangle between the two. I think he's a triangle between

00:37:15.400 | a triangulator and a calibrator. He's not like a conviction politician the way that Bernie Sanders

00:37:22.680 | is or an Elizabeth Warren. But what he's tacked to is the center of the Democratic Party. And the

00:37:26.760 | center of the Democratic Party has moved very far left because all the activists have moved to the

00:37:31.480 | left. And so he's been dragged left.

00:37:33.080 | Remember, Biden was Clinton's floor manager in the Senate when he passed all this legislation.

00:37:39.080 | And so now Biden is very far to the left of where Biden was in the 1990s. And the reason

00:37:45.080 | for that is because the Democratic Party has moved. So once again, I guess my question to all

00:37:49.320 | of you guys is, what does it take? How far does the Democratic Party have to go to the left?

00:37:54.040 | Not Donald Trump.

00:37:54.600 | Okay.

00:37:55.240 | Not Donald Trump.

00:37:55.800 | I wouldn't call this-

00:37:57.400 | That's the problem is Donald Trump.

00:37:58.280 | I wouldn't call this as much of a radical policy shift as I think it's being framed. I honestly

00:38:02.520 | think this is a natural and inevitable consequence of the circumstances we find

00:38:06.840 | ourselves in right now with respect to the spending level, the dependence we have on

00:38:10.920 | federal spending across the board with respect to individual employment and the

00:38:14.760 | the economy, the need for a variety of social services to get us through this COVID economic

00:38:19.640 | collapse. I just don't see another way out. And I feel like it's the natural course to do exactly

00:38:25.720 | what's going on right now. I think it's going to pass. I think something like it's going to pass.

00:38:29.080 | I think something like it's going to pass, but I don't think it's going to pass.

00:38:32.200 | Yeah.

00:38:32.760 | Where do you put it at? You think it's going to be equidistant?

00:38:35.240 | I'm not saying it's good or bad. I think obviously we just find ourselves in this circumstance in

00:38:38.680 | this country in this moment in time, that this is the only path. I'm just not sure you can go in and

00:38:44.440 | go slash a ton of spending right now. And anyone would win reelection or most Americans would be

00:38:51.720 | anything but unhappy. It's just the consequence of where we are.

00:38:55.880 | Let's play the glass half full. Here's a crazy idea. For example, somebody like me,

00:39:01.800 | what I would think about, which I think is a little crazy, but I would do it is, okay, I'm

00:39:07.320 | just going to move literally every single thing, every dollar that isn't nailed down into a charitable

00:39:14.120 | vehicle. And I will invest through my charity, because I still have to donate 5% a year. But

00:39:20.440 | then I can compound tax free. Now, I care more about the businesses that I'm a part of and the

00:39:25.240 | progress that I can create. So that may be okay. And I'll just pay myself a salary to like fund my

00:39:29.400 | lifestyle. But that could be a way around this. To me, the biggest issue isn't how much money I have

00:39:34.760 | personally, the biggest issue is how much money I will have to put back into the world.

00:39:39.080 | And the idea that then it goes to a place where it's profligately spent in a way that isn't

00:39:43.800 | accountable really bothers me. That idea bothers me a lot. David, that would cause me to attack,

00:39:49.320 | you know, more even more to the right if I could find somebody who understood that principle,

00:39:53.640 | because what I don't want to have is, you know, in the absence of social programs, like the problem

00:39:58.440 | that the republicans leave is this no man's land where then you're forced to believe that this one

00:40:03.800 | man for yourself, it's all about you, you can figure it out, you know, the rugged individualism.

00:40:08.440 | That's just not realistic. Like I, I

00:40:13.480 | completely agree with you. I think that's a really good point. I think that's a really good point.

00:40:15.640 | I think that's a really good point. And I think that's a really good point. And I think that's

00:40:16.360 | a really good point. And I think that's a really good point. And I think that's a really good point.

00:40:17.480 | And the problem is that republicans don't give you that option to have then accountability on

00:40:21.640 | spending. And just somebody please just say that I don't care what you call yourself.

00:40:25.960 | Yeah, well, look, I think, you know, the I think republicans have gotten a lot more comfortable

00:40:30.600 | with the idea of entitlements and the social safety net. I don't really hear anyone opposing

00:40:35.400 | that anymore. I mean, it's the same things happened with like the Tories in England. No one's really trying

00:40:43.160 | to roll back the social safety net. We need a republican message to come forward and say,

00:40:47.800 | listen, we don't care, you know, who you love, what you smoke, where you're from, what you look

00:40:55.000 | like, you know, we believe in an opportunity society, we want to spread that option to

00:40:59.320 | everybody. But ultimately, opportunity comes from the private sector, we're going to have a strong

00:41:03.480 | social safety net. And we're going to basically give everybody the most opportunity to participate

00:41:08.760 | by giving them a great education. That's basically what the agenda should be.

00:41:12.200 | Yeah, I'm in.

00:41:12.840 | I'm in. I mean, to your point,

00:41:15.080 | Even the starting line. Hallelujah.

00:41:16.360 | I like it. I mean, I would, I've

00:41:18.920 | The problem is your boy tried to dismantle Obamacare, you know, unfortunately.

00:41:22.280 | The problem is Trump, like Trump, I'm a never Trumper, obviously, but I'm kind of purple,

00:41:26.840 | I would, you know, I'm considering Austin or Miami as a place to locate myself. And

00:41:30.920 | a decision like this makes it easier.

00:41:33.000 | I would never do that.

00:41:34.280 | I'm actually very, I love Texas. I love Austin. Austin's the kind of purple I like.

00:41:40.760 | Like I like personal freedom. And

00:41:42.520 | I like what you're saying, like love who you love smoke what you want.

00:41:45.960 | What year did you move to the Bay Area?

00:41:47.400 | Five, six years ago. I was in LA for 10, New York for 30.

00:41:52.120 | I feel like it's a last in first out thing that's going on right now with respect to

00:41:55.400 | immigration out of California.

00:41:56.520 | Yeah. I've been here since 2000. I'm not leaving.

00:41:59.480 | Yeah, I've been here since I was six years old in California, and I'm not leaving. And I've been in

00:42:04.120 | the Bay Area since college. So I'm not, you know, I feel like it's a lot harder to leave when you've

00:42:08.520 | been here longer. It's a lot easier to leave when you've been here less time. That certainly seems to

00:42:12.200 | be the pattern I've seen amongst friends and colleagues with respect to leaving the state.

00:42:15.960 | All right. The Chauvin trial came back guilty all three charges.

00:42:21.800 | What is there to even talk about here? What is there to talk about?

00:42:25.320 | I don't even know. I mean, I feel like we should.

00:42:28.920 | Can I give it, can I give a shout out to a really good friend of mine? His name is Neil Kotschall. He

00:42:33.960 | was the former Solicitor General under Obama. He, he was one of the prosecutors that worked on that.

00:42:41.880 | He's a, he's a partner at Hogan's, runs a Supreme Court practice there, but basically went and did

00:42:48.440 | this pro bono trial on behalf of the state of Minnesota, working with the, the district attorney.

00:42:55.000 | And I'm just, I just want to say Neil, proud of you. It's an incredible thing. Thank you for

00:42:59.960 | keeping America safe. Okay.

00:43:03.800 | I mean, you know, what's crazy is like, but then, you know, the same day there was a shooting of

00:43:10.200 | this, this unfortunate shooting. And I was like, I'm going to go to the Supreme Court. I'm going to

00:43:11.560 | go to the Supreme Court. I'm going to go to the Supreme Court. I'm going to go to the Supreme Court.

00:43:12.120 | I think, I think she was 16 year old, 16 years old, this black girl in Ohio. And then, you know,

00:43:16.760 | LeBron tweeted something out and then LeBron had to basically delete the tweet because it was

00:43:20.360 | causing people to go absolutely crazy. Well, I mean, each of these situations

00:43:24.920 | is unique. And in that situation, somebody was going to stab another person. The cop didn't

00:43:29.560 | know what was going to happen. And, you know, in another time period, like maybe that would have

00:43:34.280 | been saving somebody's life who had potentially been stabbed and, you know, the George Floyd, I

00:43:41.000 | think he had a real life story.

00:43:41.240 | I think you got to reserve judgment on each of these until you get all the information. But the

00:43:45.080 | information here was just super conclusive. Like the gymnastics, Ben Shapiro, and some of these

00:43:51.560 | far right people had to go through to say what you saw in George Floyd being murdered was not what

00:43:57.400 | happened. Well, that's, that's performative theater trying to get people to watch something.

00:44:01.560 | And it was, I mean, it was just gross to watch. Might as well call it what it is like that's

00:44:05.160 | acting. I feel like probably if anybody, if any one of us found Ben Shapiro in a bar and just hung

00:44:10.520 | out and had a beer. Yeah.

00:44:10.920 | You'd find out that he was like, he was like the Meryl Streep of our generation,

00:44:15.080 | you know, like this incredible actor. What does that mean?

00:44:17.320 | Like an incredible actor.

00:44:19.240 | Well, no, I mean, I think Scott Adams and his podcast, all these guys are just trying to figure

00:44:24.200 | out how to say that this was a travesty of justice. And I'm like, I don't know what you saw, but.

00:44:29.640 | Yeah. Let me explain where they went wrong. Okay. So, so look, I, I, I agree with you guys.

00:44:35.000 | Fundamentally, this was an easy, look, this, this was, uh, you know, a finding a fact by the jury.

00:44:40.600 | Guilty on all charges, obvious, right? The tape shows it, his, uh, the Chauvin's, uh, record as a

00:44:48.280 | cop, numerous complaints, you know, this was a bad apple. This was a bad cop. He deserved to be

00:44:53.640 | convicted. End of story. That's really the analysis should end. But of course the people

00:44:58.680 | on cable news would have nothing to say if that was the end of it. And so look, I think both the

00:45:03.560 | right and the left kind of went off the rails on this where you're the right kind of went off the

00:45:08.280 | rails is you had, well, yeah. I mean, I think the right kind of went off the rails is you had, well,

00:45:10.760 | what happened is you had Maxine waters, you know, come out and while the jury was still

00:45:16.280 | deliberating, she was basically calling for activists to get more confrontational on the

00:45:20.280 | streets. If the verdict went the wrong way. And so then the defense helpful, not helpful.

00:45:25.080 | Right. And so the, so then the, the defense made a motion saying that, uh, this, this was affecting

00:45:30.920 | the deliberations. There was no proof of that. The jewel, the, the judge ruled against that motion,

00:45:36.760 | but he did. The judge reiterated his desire for the politicians.

00:45:39.960 | To stop talking about the case. Right. And so then what happened is the right-wing commentators

00:45:45.640 | were criticizing Maxine waters and implying that, that there was an effort to try and coerce the

00:45:51.640 | jury. And there's no proof of that. Right. And, and, and, and I think there's the mistake is in

00:45:57.320 | somehow framing the Derek Chauvin as like a sacrificial lamb to the mob. He was not,

00:46:03.320 | he was guilty. He deserved it. That being said, I do think that the judge had a point that it would

00:46:09.000 | be helpful if these politicians would just stay out of it, stop commenting on it while the jury

00:46:14.920 | is deliberating. I think there was a legit point there. Um, but you know, the, the, the, the left

00:46:20.840 | made some, some weird comments as well. You had Nancy Pelosi made this really bizarre statement.

00:46:25.800 | That was very strange. I think that was like a slip up of like,

00:46:28.440 | just trying to say something, not, I mean, being charitable, she was trying to say something nice

00:46:33.960 | that George Floyd is going to create a wave of justice. And that would be, that's, that's, that's,

00:46:38.440 | that would be, that's a great idea. She said, yeah, she said, thank you,

00:46:41.640 | George Floyd for sacrificing your life for, for justice. Yeah. That didn't come out exactly as

00:46:46.120 | she intended. No, no. I mean, because look, George Floyd did not go out that day intending to be

00:46:50.680 | a martyr. Um, no, you know, and, um, and so it, it, it sort of gay, it expressed kind of what

00:46:58.840 | she's thinking, which is how am I going to use this politically? Uh, you know, train pretty gross.

00:47:06.280 | I think you're right. It came out gross for sure.

00:47:08.200 | I think that's how they're trained. It's kind of like, you know, if you, if you take a

00:47:11.960 | finely tuned athlete in a sport and give them, you know, they're, they're just, they're reactive

00:47:16.760 | because they're so instinctual. I think it's kind of like this, she's an incredibly finely trained

00:47:21.000 | athlete and her domain is politics. And so, you know, what is that phrase? Uh, uh, every crisis

00:47:27.560 | is an opportunity kind of thing. So I think, yeah, I mean, they all flew there to be there for the,

00:47:32.040 | for the trial, et cetera. And that couldn't have helped the judge with, you know, the impartial

00:47:37.400 | jury and maybe that causes a mistrial. I mean, I don't know, David, you were an attorney.

00:47:40.920 | Is there any chance on appeal that a maxi water quote like that could result in.

00:47:47.960 | Well, the judge, the judge actually said that, that the defense could reserve that issue and

00:47:53.400 | use it on appeal. So yeah, they could use it, but I, but I don't think it's good. I don't think it's

00:47:57.240 | going to work unless they can prove that somehow the jury was contaminated by what they were

00:48:02.920 | hearing on TV or something like that. The judge's instructions were pretty clear.

00:48:06.200 | Like I watched a couple of the ending days and he's very clear. Like he's like, guys, I don't

00:48:10.280 | want you to watch the news. You know, there's stuff like that. He was very directive in making

00:48:13.320 | sure that they tried to be as uncontaminated as possible. So I think the surface area for an appeal

00:48:18.200 | is pretty thin here. The fact that the police chief and everybody who worked with him said like,

00:48:22.760 | this is not standard this, and they just threw him right under the bus. They didn't want to be

00:48:27.080 | associated with this in any way. By the way, well, you know, they're,

00:48:30.280 | they're not going to be able to hide much longer though. Cause the DOJ said they're over, they're,

00:48:32.120 | the DOJ said they're opening an investigation at the Minnesota police force. So I think they're

00:48:35.880 | just trying to crack open the police reform in that state and just get those guys on the right

00:48:39.400 | side. And it's going to be, you know, again, here's this other issue where it's like, okay,

00:48:43.720 | this is where like there it's very difficult for the federal government to do anything,

00:48:49.080 | but you know, so whatever they try to do won't really result in what, what you want to have,

00:48:53.560 | because every state, again, Jason, to your point has completely different political ideologies.

00:48:58.040 | Nobody wants to behave the same. Everybody wants to be independent. Everybody wants to get

00:49:01.320 | reelected as not kowtowing to somebody else. And so you just don't get these consistent outcomes.

00:49:07.800 | And then people are forced to vote with their feet and move across the country,

00:49:11.160 | you know, to get a bunch of simple things that I think should be pretty consistent across the

00:49:15.480 | entire country. The thing that I found particularly deranged was these people who are like, listen,

00:49:19.480 | he's a fentanyl addict. He's an opioid addict, which by the way, there are tons of affluent

00:49:24.840 | people. Everybody in this country is addicted to opioids. Fentanyls are everywhere. And then you're

00:49:30.520 | trying to say like, because he had that addiction, but in some way that negates the person kneeling on

00:49:35.720 | his back while he's in handcuffs. Like you're you have a duty as a police officer to take care of

00:49:41.160 | somebody when he's in handcuffs. How is he any threat in any way and then to listen to Scott

00:49:46.680 | Adams and Ben Shapiro on these absolute pieces of garbage try to say, oh, you know, there was the

00:49:53.320 | fentanyl that killed him. It's like, yeah, no, the person on his back kneeling on him for nine minutes.

00:49:59.000 | Because it's about ratings. Now, switching topics and to talk about ratings,

00:50:03.560 | something a little lighter. The most interesting popcorn thing that I watched was the Hulu

00:50:09.960 | documentary. You did watch the Hulu documentary on WeWork?

00:50:13.080 | On WeWork, yeah. I gotta watch it. I gotta watch it.

00:50:15.960 | I haven't seen it yet. Yeah.

00:50:17.000 | Oh, it is in a word. I think the right word is like, outrageous. I think the guy who stole it,

00:50:24.040 | Jason, was the lawyer who they interviewed. Yep.

00:50:26.440 | He had some incredible kind of like one-liners. One-liners.

00:50:28.200 | Yeah. I think it's, yeah, the- I had a, I'll be honest, and this may sound crazy,

00:50:35.960 | but I actually had a fair amount of sympathy for Adam Neumann in watching it. I think that he,

00:50:41.800 | at least in the documentary, it came out that he, you know, not that he didn't create this issue,

00:50:49.160 | but that I think it was a little overly scapegoated because it's very hard for you

00:50:52.600 | to incinerate $45 billion without the complicity at a minimum of your board of directors.

00:50:57.400 | Right? And, and a bunch of like extremely well-heeled thoughtful investors. And so there

00:51:03.320 | was just, there was just this so much complicity in this thing. So if anything, my takeaway was

00:51:07.800 | that he, he shares, he shares the blame with a lot of other people and it's not, it wasn't,

00:51:13.320 | you know, him and him only, but my gosh, that documentary, some of the things guys are just,

00:51:18.200 | they're fabulous. But this is, this is always true in these

00:51:20.520 | businesses that end up with, you know, bad actors that are enabled, right? I mean, it's been the

00:51:26.200 | case in public and public success stories and failures, right? I mean, there's a cult of

00:51:32.360 | personality. The personality provides that the high beta personality provides the alpha

00:51:37.720 | and it can also provide like a Theranos outcome. And you know, the, the thing that you'll see

00:51:44.600 | when you watch this is, I don't know if you guys watched the vow about that NXIVM cult,

00:51:48.440 | which is just equally loathsome, horrible people behaving badly, but he really targeted young people

00:51:56.040 | to work there and indoctrinated him into this. We're changing the world. And then there were

00:52:01.080 | no adults there. And you see him behind the scenes when he's talking at the IPO road show,

00:52:06.520 | and he's having basically a panic attack and he's psychotic. I mean, he was really deranged

00:52:12.920 | and they have this video of him trying to get through the IPO road show. What show is it?

00:52:16.760 | What movie is this? It's the, we work documentary documentary. It is so deranged. It's awesome.

00:52:24.920 | Deranged is a big word. I don't, I'm not sure that it's deranged, but I think it's like,

00:52:30.920 | it's juicy. It's a, it's gossipy. What about his wife and like that whole thing?

00:52:35.480 | Like we school they're like, we have to democratize education for 60,000 a year.

00:52:41.640 | Have you guys ever regretted enabling, um, you know,

00:52:46.280 | quirky personality entrepreneurs that you've backed and then you've regretted it later.

00:52:49.880 | Yeah. So, um, the, the problem is it's hard, it's hard to know in the midst of it,

00:52:54.760 | you know, I guess it's like kind of like that line, like the line between

00:52:58.040 | genius and insanity is very thin. Um, but yeah, I mean, the, the one thing I will say is I've

00:53:03.000 | only ever had one issue of outright fraud. Um, and so, you know, well, no, I mean, in, in hundreds

00:53:11.320 | of, in hundreds of companies that I've, that I've invested in, luckily I I've, I've only,

00:53:16.280 | uh, I've only seen one issue where, you know, the CEO was extremely, I don't know, aggressive in,

00:53:24.600 | how they accounted for and book revenue. And, you know, this is where one thing that we don't have

00:53:30.200 | at the early stage companies, we don't have the check and balance of a reporting infrastructure

00:53:35.000 | and a third party watchdog and all these other people. And so, you know, you guys all know this

00:53:39.320 | when we go in and we sit in a meeting in a board meeting and, you know, the entrepreneur

00:53:44.280 | puts slides up, there is an inherent 100% categorical belief that they're, that they

00:53:49.960 | aren't lying, right? Like you don't, you don't even have to check that assumption. It's just assumed

00:53:54.440 | that nobody's lying, you know, good or bad, we're just presenting the data. And I had one case where

00:53:59.160 | the guy lied and it wasn't one was, it was, and our CFO and, you know, our team figured it out.

00:54:05.560 | And, um, you know, there were other investors and it was, uh, we all were just really shocked and we

00:54:10.680 | had to kind of clean it up as best we could. And I have literally a dozen, uh, and they, we didn't

00:54:18.200 | wind up investing in, I think 10 of the 12. And the reason is we took diligence to your point.

00:54:24.280 | Do you, how do you even know in a board meeting? I just said, screw it. I'm going to build a

00:54:27.560 | diligence team. And we ask people for all their bank statements and for their iTunes account and

00:54:32.920 | for their Google analytics. And if a company doesn't give those to us, we just know that

00:54:37.640 | something's up and we figure it out before we invest because the two times we did get dinged

00:54:42.360 | on this, we had one where somebody was giving themselves a loan and paying.

00:54:46.280 | So you did diligence.

00:54:47.240 | We did. We just basically have a diligence list that says,

00:54:50.600 | give us the incorporation docs and all these bank statements. Now somebody could

00:54:54.920 | fraudulently change a bank statement that is possible. So there, it depends on how deep

00:54:59.160 | people want to go in the fraud.

00:55:00.520 | But did you guys ever like enable a personality that was just like, so over the top and then

00:55:05.240 | you're like, oh shit, this is actually going to, this is actually an explosion. Like it's

00:55:08.680 | a total disaster.

00:55:09.400 | Only my top three investments.

00:55:10.840 | Well, actually that's a good point there.

00:55:14.760 | That's a good point, right?

00:55:15.720 | Yeah. So because, okay. So I wrote about this in my blog post blitz fail

00:55:19.720 | about the sort of how, how founder psychology can actually cause a company to go off the

00:55:23.960 | rails.

00:55:24.280 | Oh, it's in offense.

00:55:25.240 | The thing, the thing is that founder founders do need to be much more aggressive than the

00:55:31.880 | average person. You know, we like to think that a quality, that a personality trait,

00:55:35.880 | like aggressiveness, there's like some sort of normal distribution of it. And you kind of want

00:55:40.120 | to be, you know, somewhere in the middle of the curve and it's actually not true. You want founders

00:55:45.000 | to be much more aggressive than the average person, because if they're not, they're just

00:55:49.240 | not going to persevere and push hard enough. Right. And Jay, I mean, we saw,

00:55:53.800 | we saw this with, with Uber, right? I mean, TK was a super aggressive personality.

00:55:57.320 | The company would not have been as successful. How do you not push that hard? And so

00:56:01.240 | the curve in the real world, it's not a normal distribution. It looks more like

00:56:06.040 | a curve where there are returns to aggressiveness and they're keeping increasing returns to it

00:56:10.680 | until suddenly the person goes too far and then they jumped the shark and the whole thing craters.

00:56:15.000 | But wait, can I, can I say something like, you know, having been in the

00:56:18.920 | engine room with Zuck in a critical moment, Zuck was an aggressive guy, but he wasn't over the

00:56:23.640 | top and he wasn't just this like crazy weirdo personality. He wasn't enabling sexual harassment.

00:56:29.720 | Was he thoughtful? He wasn't doing any of that stuff.

00:56:31.160 | Would you say? Yeah. He was, he was, he was, he was,

00:56:34.200 | he was an intellectually incisive, he was an aggressive thinker. So this is why my reaction

00:56:39.480 | to David's question is I haven't backed assholes because I just think that that archetype doesn't

00:56:44.120 | work. Zuck's a very cool analytical

00:56:46.200 | personality. There are these founders that, you know, we, um, I've heard the term wild stallion to,

00:56:52.920 | uh, to destroy.

00:56:53.480 | Describe them where they are, you know, they're like these, these wild stallions,

00:56:57.240 | they have tremendous upside, but they're also a little bit, you know, um, wild and unless they

00:57:02.280 | sort of learn to. You can get hit with the hoof.

00:57:03.800 | Yeah. I mean, they're, they're, they're, they've got a lot of talent, right? Uh, the, the, the

00:57:10.600 | talent is the amount of talent you have is like the horse you're riding on. And some people are

00:57:15.080 | riding on a Bronco. They got a lot of talent, but it might buck them off.

00:57:18.680 | I just think the real, the real edge in investing is figuring out what is blood,

00:57:23.320 | luster and window dressing and show. And what is actually aggressive thinking like

00:57:27.480 | John and Patrick Collison. There's zero bluster with those guys.

00:57:31.080 | Yeah. Those guys are Shopify zero.

00:57:33.400 | That company is going to be zero. That's going to be the most valuable,

00:57:36.360 | valuable company that's private right now. Besides these guys are, these guys are incredible,

00:57:40.680 | intellectually thoughtful killers, right? That's what they are.

00:57:43.400 | That's true. They out, they out think everybody,

00:57:45.640 | but there's also a maturation process. A lot of founders go through, right? I mean,

00:57:49.000 | the Colson's and Zuck, I think got very mature, very young.

00:57:53.160 | I think there's other founders that it takes them a while to get more polished,

00:57:58.200 | get more disciplined, reign in that, you know, those emotions. I'm not saying they're fraudulent.

00:58:04.520 | We don't want to bet on fraudulent founders, but some founders need to learn how to harness

00:58:09.720 | the talent they have.

00:58:10.920 | Yeah. I agree with that. I agree with that.

00:58:12.600 | And those are the ones where it's very hard to know earlier in their career,

00:58:17.080 | whether to bet on them or not. Right. Because they may get it under control or they may not. It's,

00:58:22.120 | you can't tell at the beginning.

00:58:23.000 | Here's the analogy we use internally. It's like being professor X and the X-Men,

00:58:27.720 | you could have a Jean gray or a Wolverine and like, everybody's got a different superpower,

00:58:31.480 | but you need to teach them how to use that superpower so they don't self-destruct or cause

00:58:36.120 | chaos.

00:58:36.280 | They can bifurcate the other way, right?

00:58:37.960 | They could be Magneto, right? You could, it could go the other way.

00:58:41.560 | Not sure I get all the references, but I hear you.

00:58:43.720 | Well, I mean, I'm kind of shocked given how much of a huge nerd you are that you don't

00:58:49.080 | understand the X-Men. I love that movie. I love that movie with the guy who's made

00:58:52.840 | of all the rocks and the little tree guy. Who's his buddy. That's a Guardians of the Galaxy. Yes.

00:58:58.200 | I think, I think Jason's favorite character is the blob.

00:59:00.600 | Is that the one?

00:59:02.120 | That's coming from you? You brought COVID-20, I dropped COVID-15. What are you talking about?

00:59:08.360 | How many, how many of those Cubano sandwiches are you having? Look at your face, dude.

00:59:12.840 | How many cro, no croquetas, Sax.

00:59:16.840 | Are you right? I shouldn't have gotten there.

00:59:18.200 | Side salad.

00:59:19.640 | Bad idea. I shouldn't have gotten there. You're right.

00:59:21.160 | Yeah.

00:59:21.480 | Side salad.

00:59:22.680 | I started training.

00:59:25.080 | Well, Sax, what is your health plan? Are you, now that we're coming out of COVID,

00:59:28.120 | are you running or like?

00:59:28.920 | Yes, we got an intervention right now. What's the plan?

00:59:30.440 | You look terrible.

00:59:31.400 | You do look a little bloated. You look like a, you look like a puffed fish.

00:59:37.080 | Oh, geez. I need to lose like 20 pounds.

00:59:39.560 | A puffed fish.

00:59:41.000 | I'm down 12 from my peak of the COVID peak. I'm feeling good.

00:59:43.800 | Just get a personal trainer.

00:59:46.040 | Speaking of COVID, what the hell is going on in India?

00:59:48.680 | Oh my lord.

00:59:49.400 | It's brutal.

00:59:49.640 | It's scary.

00:59:50.200 | I thought the whole thing was we would, they were taking hydroxychloroquine

00:59:52.520 | for totally different reasons and this is why it's all fine.

00:59:54.840 | Or that they had some immunity or that it was hot. I mean, there was a million reasons of why

00:59:59.240 | they were not going to get hit and then now they're surging and we have 60 million shots

01:00:04.280 | on the shelf and the number of people getting shots is going down. This is America's chance

01:00:09.240 | to use instead of battleships and nuclear weapons, we can use this COVID to shape global policy.

01:00:17.000 | We should be getting vaccines to other countries and be once again,

01:00:22.360 | the shining light of the entire planet and humanity.

01:00:25.960 | Well, why are we not bringing shots to India now?

01:00:28.520 | We have so many extra.

01:00:30.840 | I'm not sure. I'm just trying to pull up the India vax data per day. I'm not sure that there's a,

01:00:35.240 | that's as much the issue, right?

01:00:38.680 | I mean, it is scary to watch their, I mean, you're our go-to science guy,

01:00:44.600 | Freeberg. Tell us what we're looking at here on this chart. I mean, the daily COVID cases

01:00:48.680 | are now hitting 250,000.

01:00:50.680 | 350,000.

01:00:52.200 | 300,000 a day, Jason, right now.

01:00:53.480 | It broke 300. Oh my Lord. And the United States has gotten down to like 50, 60.

01:00:57.560 | India is now past the peak of the US. You know, India is now seeing more cases per day than any

01:01:05.320 | country has seen worldwide during the whole pandemic at over, you know, 300,000 a day right

01:01:11.160 | now. And it's, you know, it doesn't seem to be letting up and we're now questioning whether it's

01:01:15.640 | testing. That's the limiting factor in terms of reporting on these cases. So it's pretty nasty.

01:01:20.680 | Now there's a famous,

01:01:22.040 | famous Indian politician who,

01:01:23.400 | who had been double vaxxed, who claims that he is COVID positive as is his mother and sister.

01:01:31.960 | And so it's also creating a little bit of a concern in the market about, you know, getting

01:01:37.880 | COVID. Now he doesn't seem to be having a severe case, which is, you know, one of the kind of

01:01:44.200 | important things to take note of in vaccination is it's not necessarily binary. But it's certainly

01:01:50.920 | making a, a lot of sense. Yeah.

01:01:51.880 | lot of creating a lot of fear uh as a result of his um kind of public statement about this

01:01:56.680 | this isn't just about cases either um 30 days ago they were at 200 deaths a day and uh i mean

01:02:05.240 | tragically they're at 2100. so it's 10x in 30 days if it 10x is again that's 20 000 people a day

01:02:13.160 | dying this is a different level than any other country has experienced tragic and they don't

01:02:17.800 | look at the end at the end of the day they don't have the the hospitals hospitals to handle this do

01:02:21.880 | they this could become a crisis of epic proportions at the end of the day a country's success in

01:02:26.760 | battling cove it's going to be about how fast they can get their population vaccinated it's very

01:02:30.840 | simple right i mean israel was first they got everyone vaccinated now their cases are down to

01:02:36.680 | almost nothing the us is doing pretty well although there's some room for concern we were doing you

01:02:42.360 | know close to four million vaccinations a day now we're at like three three and a half they're

01:02:47.080 | starting to slip

01:02:47.720 | a little bit um and that doesn't have to do with johnson and johnson right that has to do with

01:02:52.600 | people not showing up for appointments yeah and i think you got to blame the media a little bit

01:02:57.320 | because they keep running all these vaccine scare stories about you know how this person or that

01:03:02.040 | person the vaccine punched through and they got sick despite getting the vaccine they keep selling

01:03:07.320 | they keep selling all this like you know covid um scary and porn you know the the fear point

01:03:13.320 | do you know what i noticed the other day on cnn this is how insincere and

01:03:16.920 | um ratings desperate they are when they put up their covet stats they put up cumulative cases

01:03:22.840 | and cumulative deaths that's what they obsess on and it's like hey dummies we know what you're

01:03:28.040 | doing here you're trying to scare people you should show the graph of the debts going down

01:03:33.560 | and then why can't you take your mask off if you're vaccinated and you're outside

01:03:37.320 | reward you were talking about this last week yeah nate silver had a really good tweet about

01:03:41.960 | this he said that wearing a mask after you're vaccinated is now it's like the the blue equivalent

01:03:46.600 | of the red maga hat where it's completely performative to say hey i'm on team blue

01:03:51.720 | you know even though like scientifically it's meaningless i it's like the press they keep

01:03:57.160 | talking about this possibility that even after you're vaccinated and you could somehow you know

01:04:03.560 | keep transmitting the virus to other people look viruses i mean freebird can explain this better

01:04:08.280 | than me but viruses do not have in themselves the machinery for replication right they have to take

01:04:14.040 | over your cells hijack your cells machinery to replicate themselves so first they have to infect

01:04:19.720 | somebody then that person gets you know gets the virus starts producing a lot of it then they start

01:04:24.840 | shedding it if you don't get really sick you're not going to be shedding a lot of the virus you're

01:04:28.920 | not going to be transmitting it to a lot of other people and you know they talk about this this

01:04:33.320 | possibility as if it's like a real possibility that people could still be transmitting the

01:04:38.920 | virus after they're vaccinated i mean it's not a statistically relevant possibility right it's kind

01:04:44.040 | of a gray scale it comes down to this interpretation of everything being binary and the reality is

01:04:49.880 | that all of this is on um you know a a a statistical curve or on a kind of a gray scale

01:04:55.160 | and you know the sax's point is a hundred percent correct that the probability of someone who's been

01:05:00.840 | double vaccinated getting infection getting infected and then being infectious in a

01:05:05.480 | meaningful way is so remote um that it is not even worth kind of considering uh in a way and and

01:05:13.480 | being double vaccinated

01:05:13.960 | such a significant typically right not for everyone right all immune systems are different

01:05:18.600 | and some of what we we might be seeing is the difference in kind of how people develop immunity

01:05:23.960 | um but it is such a rare case that one could have a severe infection after getting a uh you know a

01:05:29.960 | vaccination um is such that it it shouldn't even be considered and kind of you know mentioned as

01:05:35.400 | being a reason for continuing to wear masks and not gather and not do things and so you know we

01:05:39.800 | started out as sax pointed out and i think this is such a true and important point we started

01:05:43.880 | out with this like immediate politis politicization of what's the right thing to do to

01:05:48.920 | reduce the spread of the virus and then that became the mainstay for that political affiliation

01:05:54.040 | and now the transition of the new world that we live in where most people are vaccinated

01:05:59.160 | we have a better understanding of the science and the statistics and the mechanisms of transmission

01:06:03.880 | we hold on and we grasp on to that initiating kind of belief system

01:06:09.320 | that was correct at the time but isn't correct anymore and it is

01:06:13.800 | it seems so difficult to get people to shift their mind this kind of um this behavior is an ignorant

01:06:18.920 | behavior and you see it in so many manifestations um uh right now uh in particular with respect to

01:06:25.000 | masks and behavior after vaccination and so on uh and it's uh it's really brutal to watch um but we

01:06:30.680 | obviously digress a bit from the indian uh circuit the indian circumstance which is a really nasty one

01:06:36.280 | so it looks like why why now and not a year ago you know it's it's not clear right so there's um

01:06:41.160 | someone uh uh provided a

01:06:43.720 | indication today that there may be as many as somewhere between 100 and 200 unique variants

01:06:49.400 | that we're seeing emerge in india so there may be a a lot of interesting very interesting

01:06:54.040 | technically but not obviously for human life but a lot of dramatic um variants or significant

01:07:00.600 | variants uh that might be increasing the the infectiousness right now um and uh and in

01:07:06.520 | particular uh you know behavior has shifted in a way that's enabling you know some of these

01:07:10.920 | transmissions to occur you know a lot of people let their guard down and so

01:07:13.640 | on in a way that maybe they weren't six months ago um and uh you know there may be some forced

01:07:19.880 | evolution associated with partial vaccination totally a theory right now where you know 110

01:07:25.960 | million doses have been given in india so far so you know in order for a virus to succeed the viral

01:07:31.560 | variants that are going to infect more likely um you know through a partially transmitted

01:07:36.760 | a partially vaccinated population are the ones that are winning out

01:07:40.040 | so there's a lot of you know confounding factors here we're not really sure

01:07:43.240 | um but it is uh it is pretty brutal um what is uh what is going on um i will say like this notion

01:07:50.920 | that vaccination does not prevent uh protection against variants is not a binary statement either

01:07:57.000 | this is really really important i've been wanting to say this for a couple of our shows when you get

01:08:02.200 | this vaccine um what you're doing is you're training your cells you're giving yourselves the

01:08:06.520 | rna to print the spike protein and that protein is now in your body everyone's immune system then

01:08:12.120 | reacts differently and then it's like you're giving yourself the rna to print the spike protein and

01:08:13.160 | then you're giving yourself the rna to print the spike protein and then you're giving yourself the rna to

01:08:13.480 | to create antibodies to that protein the antibodies that chamath makes and jason makes and sax makes

01:08:19.000 | and i make are all going to be different but if you had to pick whose would be better i mean

01:08:22.600 | i could tell you sax is probably going to be the worst off but yeah jason's sort of the most

01:08:27.240 | sluggish for sure they're the slowest yeah but there are likely tens of thousands of novel

01:08:33.560 | variants that our b cells will make that will that will bind to that spike protein and get rid of it

01:08:38.440 | and we will each have many hundreds or potentially thousands of novel antibodies that our immune system will create.

01:08:43.080 | we'll make so keep that in mind you now have a portfolio of antibodies that your body is producing to that spike protein so now when when a when a covid uh when the

01:08:52.040 | sars cov2 virus shows up in your body some of those proteins some of those antibodies are going to be

01:08:56.360 | really effective at getting rid of it some of them are not now the protein in the sars cov2 virus

01:09:01.960 | changes slightly some of the other antibodies you have are going to be effective and some of the

01:09:06.360 | other ones are not and it is that portfolio that is um that is going to change sorry that portfolio

01:09:12.280 | that is going to define your success at fighting off a specific variant of sars cov2 where the spike

01:09:18.840 | protein is changing slightly with each variant right so these variants change the composition

01:09:22.760 | of the protein the antibodies that you have are going to be you know more or less successful

01:09:26.840 | depending on how that variant changes and that's um where there may be cases where the number of

01:09:32.280 | antibodies that you are producing or the success of the antibodies that you particularly have

01:09:36.280 | are a little bit lower for a particularly new variant it doesn't mean that you're going to have

01:09:40.520 | an infection that's going to be a runaway infection in your body it means that it might take you

01:09:44.520 | longer or it might be a little bit harder for you to clear that particular variant given the

01:09:49.160 | repertoire of antibodies that you've produced and that's why this isn't that's why this isn't binary

01:09:53.880 | right it could be that it's like hey this variant shows up boom instantly i got rid of it i don't

01:09:58.280 | have any infection but someone else might have like you know maybe a slight bit of um uh you

01:10:03.400 | know there might be a couple days where they'll feel a cold as your body's going to get rid of it

01:10:06.200 | and the other way that that could happen is that they're not going to be able to get rid of it so

01:10:08.840 | you're going to have to do something like a blood test to see if that's going to be the best way to

01:10:12.200 | get rid of it and then the other way is you're going to have to do something like a blood test

01:10:15.080 | to see if that's going to be the best way to get rid of it and so that's why this is a very important

01:10:18.440 | thing to do and so that's why we've been doing this for a long time and so i think that's going to be

01:10:22.440 | a very important thing to do and so i think that's why we've been doing this for a long time and so

01:10:25.720 | we're going to have to do it a little bit more often and so we're going to have to do it a little

01:10:28.120 | bit more often and so we're going to have to do it a little bit more often but we're going to have to

01:10:30.440 | do it a little bit more often but we're going to have to do it a little bit more often and so

01:10:34.520 | again like when viral variants start to emerge in the population and as they kind of take off

01:10:38.760 | um and become more dominant it doesn't mean that we don't have immunity it means that immunity

01:10:44.200 | might be slightly affected um but not not it's not one or zero right because you've got hundreds

01:10:49.320 | or thousands of antibodies to fight against covid in your body and i think that's really important

01:10:54.360 | so we should you know while there may be some variants that might be what we call variants of

01:10:57.560 | concern meaning they can kind of slip away a little bit from most of the antibodies you have

01:11:00.360 | these and so i don't know if that was too technical or too difficult to understand but i

01:11:04.280 | think it's really important it makes total sense yeah yeah and and and one thing just to add to that

01:11:09.160 | is is that most of the variants that the press keeps reporting with alarm that are somehow

01:11:15.480 | that that basically are going to be vaccine proof they turn out not to be

01:11:19.400 | you know that we they're very shortly uh there there comes out a new article basically saying

01:11:25.720 | that the vaccines work and so the press keeps reporting these isolated cases

01:11:30.280 | and so i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:33.320 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:36.200 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:37.800 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:40.360 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:41.960 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:43.960 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:45.800 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:47.880 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:49.880 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:52.280 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:11:55.480 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:11:58.520 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:00.680 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:02.680 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:04.520 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:06.920 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:08.840 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:11.560 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:13.880 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:16.040 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:18.760 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:21.960 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:23.720 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:25.800 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:27.720 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:29.800 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:31.720 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:33.800 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:35.880 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:39.080 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:42.280 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:46.440 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:48.360 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:51.000 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:53.720 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:12:56.440 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:12:58.440 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:02.040 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:04.440 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:07.640 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:09.400 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:11.640 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:13.720 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:17.320 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:19.560 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:21.560 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:23.560 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:25.800 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:28.520 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:31.240 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:32.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:34.840 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:36.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:38.920 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:41.000 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:43.000 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:44.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:47.080 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:49.080 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:51.240 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:54.600 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:13:56.920 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:13:58.520 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:00.760 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:02.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:04.920 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:06.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:08.920 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:10.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:13.240 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:17.240 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:19.480 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:21.400 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:24.120 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:24.920 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:27.400 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:28.280 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:29.320 | i think that's a really important thing to think about because i think that's a really important

01:14:30.360 | thing to think about because i think that's a really important thing to think about because

01:14:32.440 | what's going on with the SEC and SPACs and just some more

01:14:35.460 | reporting or something? Because I was watching CNBC, and they

01:14:38.320 | said, Hey, you're doing everything right. But there's a

01:14:40.420 | lot of other people are doing things wrong. Explain to us

01:14:42.640 | what's going on.

01:14:43.260 | It's I mean, it's a it's a very specific accounting issue,

01:14:47.740 | which is that some specs many specs and in fact, many

01:14:51.160 | companies, let's just put it that way, not just backs, but

01:14:53.260 | many companies use warrants. And the prevailing guidance on

01:14:57.140 | certain warrants was that they were equity. And basically, that

01:15:01.940 | gets put into a balance sheet statement where you have

01:15:03.860 | equities, assets and liabilities. And you know, it

01:15:06.380 | sits on one side. And basically, what they said was they issued

01:15:11.300 | some refined guidance that said actually, in these specific

01:15:13.580 | cases, these should be really listed as liability. So then it

01:15:16.100 | needs to move from this column to that column. But when that

01:15:19.320 | when you do that, you go through, you know, a bunch of

01:15:21.980 | cascading implications and effects and, you know, revisions

01:15:25.400 | and restatements. And so that's what the that's what the entire

01:15:28.280 | securities industry is dealing with right now, which was,

01:15:31.440 | you know, this guidance by the SEC and the implication. So that

01:15:34.220 | was on the 12th. I mean, just so you know, today, we just filed

01:15:37.080 | the updated, all of our updated docs plus the updated s4 for so

01:15:41.520 | far, so we were able to work around the clock and just kind

01:15:43.920 | of get it done. And hopefully, what we've also done is create a

01:15:47.040 | bit of a way forward and a path that other folks can use to kind

01:15:50.500 | of like accelerate their their progress, but it's definitely

01:15:53.460 | created a ton of work. But, but we're I think we're I think we

01:15:59.340 | found the right answer. So ultimately,

01:16:00.960 | good for you, because you want to see it.

01:16:03.120 | Yeah, and also, I think like the simpler path forward. So I mean,

01:16:07.280 | if you just think about capital market stability for a moment,

01:16:09.420 | like warrant coverage should probably go away. Number one,

01:16:12.360 | right, so take all the warrants to zero. Second thing that

01:16:15.180 | should happen is that, you know, I think this is an opportunity

01:16:17.820 | to take a step back and figure out how to really make sure that

01:16:20.340 | the SPAC sponsors are of the highest quality. Somebody told

01:16:23.340 | me this incredible thing today, I am one of five groups that put

01:16:26.880 | up any money when we do a pipe in our deals. Meaning, he's

01:16:30.460 | said to me, 95% of sponsors put up literally a zero, zero. And so

01:16:36.580 | of course, you're going to have, you know, extremely loose

01:16:38.980 | underwriting requirements, if that's the case. And so, you

01:16:41.440 | know, the idea that I'm thinking about, which someone proposed to

01:16:45.040 | me, which I think is very clever is this idea that, you know, you

01:16:47.800 | earn more of the promote more money you put up, right. So for

01:16:52.600 | example, like, you know, in, you know, in SoFi, I think we put in

01:16:56.080 | $275 million. So I mean, we really, we're really, we're really

01:16:59.980 | really, you know, that's a meaningful commitment. And it

01:17:04.420 | closes the gap between, you know, what your equity is issued

01:17:08.320 | at and what investors are buying at. And that's very healthy,

01:17:11.080 | right. And so I think there's all these mechanisms that will

01:17:14.100 | clean up the SPAC market, we need to have a much more refined

01:17:19.740 | criteria to allow people to be sponsors. And we need to make

01:17:24.360 | sponsors in a position where they must put in money, so that

01:17:28.480 | they actually do the work.

01:17:29.760 | If you get something for free, let's be honest, you won't do the

01:17:33.020 | work. If you're forced to write a check, it's 100% about it,

01:17:36.480 | show me an incentive, I'll show you the outcome. And this

01:17:38.460 | happened on AngelList, where in the beginning days of AngelList,

01:17:42.060 | you had some angels, quote, unquote, who didn't have any

01:17:45.720 | money. So they put 1000 or 2000 into a deal, then they would

01:17:49.420 | have 500,000 come behind them. And so you had this 500 to one

01:17:52.840 | ratio of dollars to skin in the game. And it was like, well, why

01:17:56.620 | wouldn't a syndicate lead put every company in the game, and

01:17:57.660 | then they would have 500,000 come behind them. And so you had

01:17:57.720 | this 500 to one ratio of dollars to skin in the game. And it was

01:17:57.780 | like, well, why wouldn't a syndicate lead put every company in

01:17:57.780 | out there, and not even put it, you know, they have no skin,

01:18:02.740 | which is why when you have a venture fund, I don't know what

01:18:04.560 | they expect us to put in typically, well, the problem is

01:18:06.960 | venture funds are one to 2%. I was 25%. Well, one to 2% is it

01:18:11.820 | could be pretty significant. If you're doing a fund every three

01:18:13.860 | years, I'm doing this. And it's, it winds up being millions of

01:18:16.440 | dollars for me, but I'm happy to do it because I believe in my

01:18:18.480 | own ability. All right, as we wrap anybody have a plug or

01:18:21.360 | anything they want to let people know about?

01:18:22.920 | Oh, I want to talk about this one little thing. I just not to

01:18:26.280 | talk about it. But I would like to tell you guys to

01:18:27.760 | read it because it is so interesting. Basically, like

01:18:31.800 | European soccer tried to incite a revolt, where like the top

01:18:35.340 | teams across all the different leagues came together to try to

01:18:38.760 | create a Super League, but it ended up like they were like a

01:18:41.820 | band of evil villains and like fans erupted, everybody erupted.

01:18:45.880 | And then, you know, it existed for 24 hours. But in that 24

01:18:49.460 | hours, it looked like a complete rewriting of sports and sports,

01:18:53.800 | like laws and you know, it was

01:18:57.740 | an incredible thing. There's an article in the New York Times,

01:18:59.720 | I'll post it in here and folks want to read it. It's really,

01:19:03.520 | really fucking funny.

01:19:04.520 | And that will be on season two of Ted Lasso. I don't know if

01:19:07.220 | you guys watched Tim Cook's keynote this week with the new

01:19:11.420 | IMAX, which are really beautiful. He was so excited

01:19:15.900 | about Ted Lasso and Ted Lasso is a great show. But I mean, it

01:19:19.040 | literally is the the Apple show. Do you guys see Ted Lasso yet?

01:19:23.300 | What is it this television show?

01:19:25.040 | You guys haven't seen Ted Lasso the TV show yet?

01:19:27.720 | Is it on NBC or CBS? What channel is it on?

01:19:30.540 | TV plus, whatever that is.

01:19:32.460 | Channel six? Is it on channel six?

01:19:34.500 | TV plus, you got to go on your Apple TV and then find an Apple

01:19:37.560 | TV plus on your TV. And you'll find it eventually. It's one of

01:19:42.060 | their paid, you know, they have their own Netflix competitor

01:19:44.160 | called Apple TV plus. So on your phone, if you type Apple TV,

01:19:48.900 | you'll have Apple TV.

01:19:49.860 | I have Apple TVs. I have Apple TVs behind my TV.

01:19:52.660 | No, no, but there's Apple TV plus, which is their Netflix. So

01:19:55.720 | there's a better

01:19:56.580 | is it a better Apple TV?

01:19:57.700 | No, no, no, it's content. It's a content subscription you could

01:20:00.940 | have. They just, they screwed that part up. Hey, shout out. I

01:20:06.100 | just wanted to get

01:20:06.740 | sorry. So who's who's Ted Lasso?

01:20:09.160 | Ted Lasso is adjacent to Dacus comedy that is incredibly

01:20:13.120 | heartwarming, about a really heartwarming, joyful, kind

01:20:17.500 | person who goes from America to the UK to become a soccer coach.

01:20:22.820 | Yeah, really great. I hate it's boring. That sounds really

01:20:27.360 | common.

01:20:27.680 | Mind you, it's not cynical. I do. I hate it.

01:20:30.720 | You should watch. You should watch Gamora on HBO. I started it. Yeah, woof. On time. Yeah,

01:20:38.500 | I got the first episode. Oh, here we go. It is so super. And also, you should watch it in the

01:20:45.520 | original language because it's not really Italian. It's like Neapolitan. And so like, you know, I can

01:20:50.300 | catch and understand maybe 20% of the words and I said to Nat I said, What language is she's like,

01:20:55.100 | I had no idea. I watched it in Italian subtitles. So it

01:20:57.660 | was, it was beautiful. It's beautiful. Beautiful. It's so

01:21:01.860 | intense. It's like the wire but like I mean, you know, set in

01:21:05.280 | Italy. It's incredible.

01:21:06.180 | Afterlife is also good Ricky Gervais. If you want something

01:21:09.440 | cynical and heartwarming. That's for you, Sax. Love you guys.

01:21:11.940 | Love you, Sax. I'll see you.

01:21:13.420 | Actually, what can you just come back to the Bay Area so we can

01:21:15.780 | play poker? Yeah.

01:21:16.620 | When he just wanted to Miami Are we going to Miami?

01:21:22.020 | I'm going to I'm going on a trip. I'll just leave it at that.

01:21:25.740 | I'll talk to you guys.

01:21:27.640 | Recognizance trip. What?

01:21:30.040 | Recognizance?

01:21:31.400 | Yeah, recognizance. I'm gonna be able to understand what's going on.

01:21:35.620 | Do you understand that that term is more associated with bail and in jail than it is what you think it

01:21:41.640 | means?

01:21:42.140 | Jason, you are released on your own recognizance.

01:21:46.880 | That's what I'm talking about.

01:21:48.100 | You want to do reconnaissance?

01:21:50.200 | Reconnaissance. That's what I said. Reconnaissance.

01:21:53.320 | Yeah, I think you'd be wearing an ankle bracelet on your

01:21:55.760 | recognizance.

01:21:57.620 | Actually, no, they don't fit on his ankles.

01:22:01.720 | I always have to mispronounce one word to make it a good episode.

01:22:04.820 | For Jason, it'll be a cankle bracelet.

01:22:07.580 | You can't talk, Mr. Doughboy. What are you talking about?

01:22:12.080 | My God.

01:22:12.580 | What? Is it called a bracelet if your calf and your ankle are the same circumference?

01:22:17.840 | Put it this way. If Sax is wearing two of them right now, you'd never know.

01:22:22.380 | Sax is wearing one on his neck. What happened to your neck, Sax?

01:22:25.880 | We're out.

01:22:26.380 | We're out.

01:22:26.900 | We're out.

01:22:27.600 | We're out.

01:22:27.760 | Where's your neck, Jabba?

01:22:29.020 | See ya.

01:22:29.540 | See ya.

01:22:30.260 | Jabba the Hutt over here.

01:22:31.660 | Love you guys.

01:22:32.900 | Love you.

01:22:33.440 | Love you, besties.

01:22:34.320 | Bye-bye.

01:22:34.800 | We'll see you all next time.

01:22:35.720 | We'll let your winners ride.

01:22:38.440 | Rain Man, David Sax.

01:22:41.320 | And it said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

01:22:48.120 | Love you, besties.

01:22:49.100 | Queen of Kinwa.

01:22:50.400 | I'm going all in.

01:22:52.180 | Let your winners ride.

01:22:57.580 | Besties are gone.

01:22:58.580 | Go 13.

01:22:59.080 | That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway.

01:23:02.020 | Sax.

01:23:02.520 | Wait, no, no.

01:23:03.160 | Oh, man.

01:23:03.660 | Oh, man.

01:23:04.160 | Oh, man.

01:23:04.660 | Oh, man.

01:23:05.160 | My avatars will meet me at .

01:23:07.760 | We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just

01:23:11.040 | used to this.

01:23:11.540 | It's like this sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

01:23:14.540 | Wet your feet.

01:23:17.540 | Wet your feet.

01:23:18.540 | Wet your feet.

01:23:19.540 | We need to get merch.

01:23:20.540 | Besties are back.

01:23:21.540 | I'm going all in.

01:23:22.540 | What?

01:23:23.540 | What?

01:23:24.540 | What?

01:23:25.540 | What?

01:23:26.540 | What?

01:23:27.540 | What?

01:23:28.500 | What?

01:23:29.500 | What?

01:23:30.500 | What?

01:23:31.500 | What?

01:23:32.500 | What?

01:23:33.500 | What?

01:23:33.500 | you

01:23:33.640 | Thank you.

01:23:33.700 | Thank you.

E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more

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