Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk

00:00:00.000 | For our next panel, we are going to have a quick introduction to each of the three

00:00:05.440 | electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle companies, the eVTOL companies.

00:00:09.200 | We'll see a video for introducing Joby, and then Adam from Archer is going to introduce Archer,

00:00:15.360 | and then Brian from Wyss, and then we're going to have a conversation. I'll be back in a minute.

00:00:20.320 | [Music]

00:00:30.320 | [Music]

00:00:40.320 | [Music]

00:00:50.320 | [Music]

00:01:06.320 | [Music]

00:01:16.320 | [Music]

00:01:32.320 | [Music]

00:01:42.320 | [Music]

00:01:56.320 | [Music]

00:02:02.320 | I founded Archer in 2018 to change the way the world moves.

00:02:06.320 | Urban congestion isn't sustainable.

00:02:09.320 | This leaves the average American stuck in traffic for dozens of hours per year.

00:02:13.320 | To combat that challenge, we built Midnight.

00:02:19.320 | [Music]

00:02:27.320 | An all-electric aircraft, purpose-built to fly back-to-back trips over congested cities.

00:02:33.320 | [Music]

00:02:38.320 | Midnight takes off vertically like a helicopter,

00:02:41.320 | then its propellers transition down to fly like an airplane.

00:02:44.320 | It's designed to be piloted and carried for passengers, and can travel at speeds up to 150 miles per hour.

00:02:50.320 | Since 2018, we've made an incredible amount of progress to bringing the Midnight aircraft to market.

00:02:56.320 | Our nearly 1,000-person team has designed, built, and tested the key enabling technologies to bring electric aviation to market.

00:03:07.320 | This has enabled us to raise nearly $1.5 billion to date.

00:03:13.320 | However, our goal is the same since day one, to get to commercial launch.

00:03:18.320 | [Music]

00:03:23.320 | Our high-volume manufacturing facility in Georgia will open up later this year,

00:03:28.320 | and we have incredible partners that are helping us bring this vision to life.

00:03:31.320 | [Music]

00:03:36.320 | Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, Ram, and Maserati, has invested nearly $300 million to date.

00:03:43.320 | United Airlines has ordered up to $1.5 billion of Midnight aircraft,

00:03:48.320 | and with Southwest, our goal is to offer passengers three-hour, multimodal journeys across California.

00:03:54.320 | [Music]

00:03:57.320 | We have an industry-leading contract with the Air Force,

00:04:00.320 | and we recently delivered our first aircraft as part of that contract.

00:04:03.320 | In LA, we recently announced plans for flight networks connecting SoFi Stadium, USC, LAX, and beyond.

00:04:11.320 | We can't wait to bring Midnight to a city near you.

00:04:14.320 | [Music]

00:04:35.320 | [Applause]

00:04:42.320 | Peter Thiel reminded us yesterday that flying cars are the peak of the hardware revolution that never quite happened.

00:04:49.320 | But as you just saw, we're closer than ever to making it a reality.

00:04:53.320 | The aircraft that the three of our companies design take off vertically like helicopters.

00:04:58.320 | They do a complex maneuver to transition onto the wing, into wing-borne flight, and fly like an aircraft.

00:05:04.320 | When the founder of our company, Larry Page, first joined this mission,

00:05:09.320 | the technologies that enable these aircraft to fly were just starting to become possible.

00:05:15.320 | The team that I lead has built the enabling technologies in electrification and autonomy that's making this possible.

00:05:23.320 | You see the prior five generations of aircraft that we've designed here on the screen behind me,

00:05:27.320 | and that iterative design-build approach has enabled us to get to the point where we are building now generation six,

00:05:34.320 | which is the first candidate for an FAA certification of a passenger autonomous aircraft.

00:05:39.320 | This aircraft is designed to take advantage of all of the prior technologies that we developed through those prior iterations

00:05:46.320 | and to operate without a pilot on board on those missions.

00:05:50.320 | There's two technology trends that we are all using to create these aircraft.

00:05:58.320 | Boaters and the same simplification that's coming to your cars,

00:06:01.320 | and batteries and the same advances that are coming to your cars and also to your cell phones.

00:06:07.320 | And second, autonomy. And autonomy has a lot of parts to it.

00:06:12.320 | So we have to, for the first time in a commercially certifiable way,

00:06:16.320 | show how we can operate and supervise an aircraft from the ground,

00:06:20.320 | display information in a way that is safe from a human factor standpoint to supervise that aircraft,

00:06:26.320 | to use sensors on the airplane in the same way that you would for an autonomous ground vehicle,

00:06:31.320 | to create the software and the computation to be able to then fly that aircraft autonomously.

00:06:36.320 | But when you make robots, people don't go away. They change what they're doing.

00:06:40.320 | And so we use those aircraft to actually do deployment testing in networks.

00:06:44.320 | Here in Los Angeles, last year, we flew the first electric VTOL aircraft in the Los Angeles area

00:06:51.320 | and we showed what's possible with these aircraft and how people can engage with them.

00:06:57.320 | We are also working on the human interface with air traffic control,

00:07:02.320 | because again, even though we have an autonomous aircraft,

00:07:05.320 | our aircraft still has to interface with today's air traffic control system.

00:07:09.320 | Like what you saw yesterday from Waymo, we use existing flying cars,

00:07:15.320 | aka helicopters that are piloted, to take that sensor package and those computation abilities

00:07:22.320 | and put them onto a piloted helicopter to perfect the algorithms that we use for doing things like

00:07:28.320 | detecting and avoiding other traffic in environments where there's different lighting

00:07:34.320 | where the aircraft that you might collide with potentially that you want to avoid is above or below the horizon.

00:07:40.320 | We also have to be able to fly these aircraft without the presence of GPS.

00:07:45.320 | As we see in conflicts around the world today, we cannot rely on GPS to be able to fly an autonomous aircraft.

00:07:52.320 | So now once you have that technology stack, you need to turn it into an actual airplane.

00:07:57.320 | And all the things that Peter talked about, about potentially being a bad industry to go into in the '90s,

00:08:04.320 | are now becoming ever more important.

00:08:06.320 | The ability to do aerodynamics, to do mechanical engineering, to create these aircraft are now more important than ever.

00:08:13.320 | And by the end of this year, we'll be flying this aircraft,

00:08:17.320 | which will be the first attempt at certifying a passenger-carrying autonomous aircraft.

00:08:22.320 | So let's bring the guys out and we'll talk about it.

00:08:25.320 | [Applause]

00:08:31.320 | Well, I think that there's a lot of people that probably need an introduction to VTOL in a more basic way.

00:08:37.320 | Before we talk about the technology, whether it's the actual vehicle itself,

00:08:41.320 | or whether it's the world's best pilot, if you will.

00:08:48.320 | For the folks out here, if they are going to interact with these systems, whether autonomous or not,

00:08:56.320 | what do you think are going to be the biggest issues that they are going to care about

00:09:01.320 | and will want resolved before they see it in their community?

00:09:04.320 | Maybe, Joven, if you want to start.

00:09:06.320 | Yeah, I think the number one issue for everybody when you're getting in an aircraft is, is this going to be safe?

00:09:13.320 | But then for both the passengers, what they care about is something that's going to dramatically change

00:09:20.320 | the way they move around their cities and save them time.

00:09:24.320 | And in order to do that, you need to have takeoff and landing locations

00:09:27.320 | that are located both close to where you are and close to where you want to go.

00:09:31.320 | And so priority two through nine in people's priority stack is about noise.

00:09:38.320 | And making an acoustic signature that's going to get communities to see this as a real advantage

00:09:46.320 | and something that increases the value of living in that community

00:09:51.320 | because you're close to this new mode of transportation.

00:09:56.320 | Do you guys think that when you see a thousand of these things flying around,

00:10:02.320 | let's just take a place in Menlo Park, California,

00:10:09.320 | are they going to be forced to have very specific sort of like air highways that they have to adhere to?

00:10:15.320 | Or what is the best thinking right now in terms of how the regulatory bodies are going to sort of enable

00:10:21.320 | you guys to actually fly commercially as quickly as possible?

00:10:25.320 | Hey, Brian, turn to you.

00:10:27.320 | If we just take a step back, the product exists, they're called helicopters.

00:10:32.320 | And a helicopter is actually way more complex than what we're building.

00:10:35.320 | We're actually building a much more simplified version of what exists.

00:10:38.320 | It's safer, it's fully redundant.

00:10:40.320 | And so it should inspire confidence for people to want to come and take these vehicles.

00:10:45.320 | The way they'll start though is going to be really slow.

00:10:48.320 | If you think about every major city in the world, they have hospitals.

00:10:53.320 | Those hospitals have helicopters.

00:10:54.320 | This product exists everywhere.

00:10:56.320 | So if you took all three of us, you took our most bullish estimates that we have

00:11:00.320 | and you tripled them, we still would not even replace helicopters.

00:11:04.320 | So to get to the point where you're asking thousands of vehicles in the air over one city

00:11:07.320 | or even hundreds is pretty far away.

00:11:09.320 | We could all deploy tens of thousands of vehicles.

00:11:12.320 | The three of us be trillion dollar companies and there still would not be thousand dollar,

00:11:17.320 | well, hopefully, there still would not be thousands of vehicles in the air.

00:11:21.320 | But to make the product really, really great, you do want liquidity.

00:11:27.320 | You do want a lot of vehicles on dense routes.

00:11:31.320 | So you don't have to worry about is it available, it's not available, like an Uber, right?

00:11:35.320 | You just, it's thumbs up, it's available, or it's thumbs down, it's not available.

00:11:38.320 | It doesn't matter what seat you get.

00:11:39.320 | It saves you time.

00:11:40.320 | That's what we're all trying to get.

00:11:42.320 | But I think just to frame it.

00:11:43.320 | - Sorry, Adam, is it a thing where it is like Uber,

00:11:46.320 | where there's going to be a version where you get in with people you don't know,

00:11:49.320 | or you think this is just like one person provisions it for themselves

00:11:52.320 | and then they go from point A to point B?

00:11:54.320 | - No, absolutely.

00:11:55.320 | The vision is a service that's available for everyone.

00:11:59.320 | The good news is you can scale these vehicles

00:12:01.320 | because they're just much more simple than helicopters.

00:12:04.320 | We don't have all the limiting factors that helicopters have,

00:12:06.320 | so you can put a lot more from the air.

00:12:08.320 | You can push the prices way down and make it very affordable.

00:12:11.320 | - It's also a dramatically faster trip.

00:12:13.320 | So you're in it for a few minutes to get across LA

00:12:16.320 | instead of in Uber where you might be sitting in traffic for an hour or two.

00:12:20.320 | - Right.

00:12:21.320 | Yesterday we heard from Takedra, from the CEO of Waymo.

00:12:26.320 | Their first launch city was Phoenix.

00:12:28.320 | The layout was good, but mostly it was really regulatorily--

00:12:33.320 | - Amenable.

00:12:34.320 | - Amenable.

00:12:35.320 | - Yeah.

00:12:36.320 | - Brian, what is the version of Phoenix for eVTOL?

00:12:40.320 | Is there a city somewhere that has said, "We want this now.

00:12:44.320 | Come and help us figure this out"?

00:12:45.320 | - Yeah, Houston.

00:12:46.320 | Houston is where we're working most specifically.

00:12:49.320 | And it's not just because Woody lives there either.

00:12:52.320 | But seriously, Houston is--

00:12:54.320 | The airport network in Houston is actually quite good,

00:12:58.320 | connecting a couple of the airports around the Houston area.

00:13:02.320 | It turns out that operating at airports initially

00:13:04.320 | is actually quite a good place to start

00:13:06.320 | because, like I said, these aircraft, they come with a footprint.

00:13:09.320 | They really come with people and operations.

00:13:12.320 | If you've ever seen an airport tarmac area,

00:13:15.320 | you can't just drop that in the middle of a city on day one.

00:13:18.320 | So starting at airports as an initial operating area is quite good.

00:13:23.320 | It turns out what you saw in that video

00:13:25.320 | was from an airspace integration standpoint

00:13:27.320 | and where you're going on routes and so on,

00:13:30.320 | New Zealand has been incredibly forward-thinking

00:13:33.320 | in terms of how to evolve their airspace network

00:13:36.320 | so that they have more digital communications,

00:13:39.320 | more of an ability to integrate uncrewed aircraft

00:13:42.320 | with crewed aircraft in the same airspace.

00:13:44.320 | And so we've been doing quite a lot of work in New Zealand on that front.

00:13:47.320 | - But hold on.

00:13:48.320 | I mean, I think it's, to me, super clear this does not start in the U.S.

00:13:52.320 | I really think it starts internationally.

00:13:54.320 | I think the regulatory environment here--

00:13:56.320 | - We're at 'em.

00:13:57.320 | - Both of us work in the UAE pretty extensively.

00:14:00.320 | I mean, if I'm going to guess just on the press that you put out,

00:14:03.320 | Joe Benn met the head of the Civil Aviation Authority in the UAE yesterday.

00:14:08.320 | I'm leaving tonight on a plane to go meet him as well.

00:14:10.320 | And so we are targeting Abu Dhabi.

00:14:13.320 | They've been targeting Dubai.

00:14:14.320 | And the reason is there is a very heavy support for new innovation.

00:14:21.320 | And the challenge--

00:14:22.320 | The reason why I feel like all three of us are up on stage here

00:14:24.320 | is probably because of the whole Woody video that we just watched.

00:14:28.320 | We all learned about NASA as young kids and were inspired by new things.

00:14:32.320 | But the challenge is the existing environment today makes that very hard.

00:14:37.320 | And these are companies that were started in America with American engineers

00:14:41.320 | that have raised capital from the American venture community

00:14:44.320 | that are listed on the American stock exchanges,

00:14:46.320 | yet we still can't launch in America.

00:14:49.320 | And that is really challenging.

00:14:51.320 | And I think part of it is back to what Bill Gurley talked about last year,

00:14:55.320 | regulatory capture.

00:14:56.320 | The walls are huge to climb.

00:14:58.320 | And in fact, the more things go bad with the incumbents, the harder it is for us.

00:15:03.320 | I don't think that's done on purpose, but that's very challenging for us now.

00:15:06.320 | I would say that the amount of bipartisan support

00:15:10.320 | on both sides of the aisle in Washington is off the charts.

00:15:13.320 | The amount of local support with states--

00:15:20.320 | Yesterday I was in Montreal at the International Civil Aviation Association conference

00:15:27.320 | where they convened--this is the first time--

00:15:30.320 | and they were convening 1,800 people to focus on advanced air mobility.

00:15:36.320 | And so this is really exciting to see how much momentum there is.

00:15:41.320 | And it's imperative that the U.S. continue to lead.

00:15:44.320 | Aviation is one of our most important exports.

00:15:46.320 | It's been vital to our economy.

00:15:49.320 | And it is really, really important that we lean forward

00:15:54.320 | and we make the certification process--

00:15:57.320 | Just to double-click on this for a second, I can see how Joe, Ben, and Adam,

00:16:00.320 | you guys, pure play startups, you have to find the willing parent.

00:16:08.320 | But you have the benefit of Boeing.

00:16:11.320 | And is that why your answer was Houston?

00:16:13.320 | Is it because they have that, I guess, regulatory gravitas

00:16:17.320 | to be able to go and help there?

00:16:19.320 | Or no, you're still mostly on your own trying to figure this out?

00:16:22.320 | - Yeah, so the journey of our company was obviously started by Larry.

00:16:26.320 | - Started by Larry Page.

00:16:27.320 | - Became Kitty Hawk, turned into a joint venture,

00:16:29.320 | and eventually we sold the company to Boeing last year.

00:16:35.320 | And so we still operate as an independent company,

00:16:38.320 | a lot like the Waymo/Google relationship right now.

00:16:41.320 | For us, the difference is we're really trying to pioneer the pathway

00:16:45.320 | to the introduction of autonomous aircraft at the same time.

00:16:49.320 | And that's a longer journey.

00:16:50.320 | So Joe, Ben, and Adam are going to be operating before us, there's no doubt,

00:16:54.320 | because piloted aircraft are coming before these uncrewed aircraft.

00:16:59.320 | I think autonomy is key to the future of aviation in the small airplane space.

00:17:04.320 | If you look at the causes of incidents and the accident rates

00:17:10.320 | in helicopters right now, they're just unacceptable.

00:17:13.320 | And I think that that can be solved by automation.

00:17:16.320 | I'm really passionate about that.

00:17:17.320 | So for us, we're on a longer journey.

00:17:19.320 | And the question is then, on that journey,

00:17:23.320 | how do we make sure that the U.S. leads in that?

00:17:26.320 | And we're trying to pioneer the regulatory pathway

00:17:28.320 | to ensure that it happens here in the United States.

00:17:30.320 | But we're also working around the globe, like I mentioned in New Zealand,

00:17:34.320 | where there are regulators who potentially want to lean forward

00:17:38.320 | and innovate on airspace or some other aspects of the problem

00:17:40.320 | that we're trying to solve.

00:17:41.320 | - I mean, Adam mentioned the concept of regulatory capture,

00:17:44.320 | but one of our besties, Skye Dayton, who's on Joby's board,

00:17:47.320 | wrote this great essay, and one of the things that's clear

00:17:51.320 | is that a lot of the pushback to the vision that you have, Brian,

00:17:54.320 | actually comes from the pilots' unions themselves, right?

00:17:58.320 | And it's a bit of a weird set of incentives.

00:18:00.320 | Do you want to just talk about that for a second?

00:18:02.320 | - I think it's less salacious than that and more clinical.

00:18:05.320 | I mean, I'll give an example.

00:18:07.320 | Well, so my vision for the future is that we're going to have

00:18:10.320 | a prolific amount of uncrewed small aircraft that are operating,

00:18:14.320 | doing the kind of missions that we're just talking about,

00:18:16.320 | but that large aircraft are going to be piloted

00:18:19.320 | for probably as far as the eye can see.

00:18:22.320 | I think the practical aspect of it, honestly, is that in 2023--

00:18:26.320 | here's a statistic for you that just blows my mind

00:18:28.320 | as a developer of airplanes.

00:18:30.320 | In 2023, there were 30 million global flights,

00:18:33.320 | carried billions of passenger and plane minutes,

00:18:36.320 | number of people that got on board the airplane,

00:18:38.320 | scheduled service, you know, airlines,

00:18:40.320 | zero accidents, zero.

00:18:43.320 | - What?

00:18:44.320 | - Zero. In 2023, zero.

00:18:47.320 | So it's less salacious than there's a cabal

00:18:52.320 | that's trying not to certificate things.

00:18:55.320 | There is a natural conservatism in the system of,

00:18:58.320 | "Holy cow, we've done it. It's working.

00:19:01.320 | Don't change it." - Right.

00:19:03.320 | - So when new technology shows up,

00:19:05.320 | I understand the perspective of a regulator

00:19:08.320 | that's sitting on the other side of that wall

00:19:10.320 | and is saying, "Man, this is kind of working."

00:19:13.320 | - Okay, then just to put you on the spot,

00:19:14.320 | I mean, I can see, you know, when Joe, Ben, and Adam say,

00:19:16.320 | "Hey, point A to point B, instead of hours in traffic,

00:19:19.320 | you're there in ten minutes."

00:19:21.320 | If there are really no pilot errors,

00:19:24.320 | unlike in cars where there's still

00:19:26.320 | far too many unnecessary deaths,

00:19:29.320 | how do you measure the incremental justification

00:19:32.320 | for the investment, let alone the reason to switch?

00:19:34.320 | - The statistic that I just gave you is for large aircraft,

00:19:37.320 | scheduled air carriers.

00:19:38.320 | If you then look at the small airplane market

00:19:40.320 | or you look at helicopter markets,

00:19:42.320 | it is orders of magnitude.

00:19:44.320 | Well, it's infinity more, you know?

00:19:45.320 | But it's way worse.

00:19:47.320 | And so the question is, how do you bring

00:19:50.320 | the level of safety of those large aircraft,

00:19:52.320 | how do you bring that same level of safety

00:19:54.320 | down into the smaller aircraft?

00:19:55.320 | - Get rid of recreational pilots.

00:19:56.320 | - You have to start. You just have to start.

00:19:58.320 | I mean, there is definitely, this panel exists in China.

00:20:01.320 | And guess what?

00:20:02.320 | There's two groups that are already certified there.

00:20:04.320 | They started. That's how you do it.

00:20:06.320 | You have to get moving.

00:20:07.320 | You have to set an environment

00:20:08.320 | where we can all start flying stuff.

00:20:10.320 | When we can do it A to B and hopefully here.

00:20:12.320 | - When you're using a large aircraft,

00:20:14.320 | you're dividing the two pilots' expense

00:20:16.320 | amongst 300 seats or 100 seats.

00:20:18.320 | And in this case, you would have a pilot on a Joby flight,

00:20:21.320 | which really, the pilot's not doing anything.

00:20:24.320 | They're not flying it.

00:20:25.320 | So they're there to make the passengers feel safer,

00:20:31.320 | is my understanding, yeah?

00:20:33.320 | - The pilot, you know, there are,

00:20:36.320 | even with what Brian's doing,

00:20:38.320 | with the incredible pioneering work on autonomy,

00:20:42.320 | you still have somebody on the ground

00:20:45.320 | who's making sure that the weather is going to be safe

00:20:48.320 | and lots of other operational logistics.

00:20:51.320 | The benefit is you get to take that person

00:20:53.320 | out of the aircraft and put them on the ground.

00:20:55.320 | So you get to put another passenger in the aircraft.

00:20:57.320 | You get a lot of operational flexibility

00:21:00.320 | because you don't necessarily have to have the pilot

00:21:04.320 | and the plane at the same location at the same time.

00:21:06.320 | A pilot can, over time,

00:21:08.320 | begin to operate multiple aircraft at the same time.

00:21:10.320 | - What is the pilot doing in Joby?

00:21:12.320 | Because my understanding is it's automated.

00:21:14.320 | So they're sitting there just monitoring it.

00:21:16.320 | - They're making sure that all of the operations

00:21:19.320 | are going to go safely.

00:21:20.320 | - But they're not on a Joby flight.

00:21:21.320 | - But the pilots are flying.

00:21:22.320 | There's sticks, right? I mean...

00:21:24.320 | - There is the option for the pilot

00:21:27.320 | to fly with the sticks as well.

00:21:28.320 | - So in an emergency situation, they would take over,

00:21:31.320 | but it's autopilot, essentially.

00:21:33.320 | - There are a lot of computer systems

00:21:35.320 | that are helping the pilot fly.

00:21:37.320 | - And when one rotor goes down...

00:21:39.320 | I mean, one of the great things about this

00:21:41.320 | is when you have a helicopter,

00:21:43.320 | you know, a rotor breaks, you die, essentially.

00:21:48.320 | - We have layer on layer of redundancy.

00:21:50.320 | We have six propellers,

00:21:51.320 | and each one's driven by separate motors

00:21:53.320 | with each separate inverter,

00:21:54.320 | with each a separate battery pack.

00:21:55.320 | And so it's just, you know,

00:21:56.320 | the same thing with the flight computers and the...

00:21:59.320 | - Everything's massively redundant.

00:22:01.320 | - Exactly.

00:22:02.320 | And that's what we did in big commercial airlines,

00:22:04.320 | which is why you get the incredible safety

00:22:07.320 | that Brian was talking about.

00:22:08.320 | - Yeah, I mean, we haven't had a passenger death

00:22:10.320 | in the United States.

00:22:11.320 | I think the last one was 2009.

00:22:12.320 | And the last three passenger jets

00:22:15.320 | that went down in the United States

00:22:16.320 | were all regional jets,

00:22:17.320 | which we all know there's a collection of problems there.

00:22:20.320 | So what would it take, theoretically,

00:22:23.320 | when you're doing your, you know, edge cases?

00:22:25.320 | What are the edge cases that are the most challenging

00:22:28.320 | in terms of safety?

00:22:30.320 | - Well, so, you know,

00:22:33.320 | with our initial certification,

00:22:34.320 | we are not certifying for flight unknown icing, for example.

00:22:38.320 | So if you live in the Northeast, you know,

00:22:43.320 | there will be a few percent of the time

00:22:46.320 | where we won't be able to offer service.

00:22:47.320 | - You'll just ground them during ice conditions.

00:22:49.320 | You're not going to JFK when it's snowing.

00:22:52.320 | - Well, you know, when it's snowing,

00:22:53.320 | you may be able to go,

00:22:54.320 | but if there's certain conditions--

00:22:56.320 | - Right, sure.

00:22:57.320 | - Where you get heavier icing.

00:22:58.320 | - That's for icing in terms of concerns

00:23:00.320 | and things that could make these go down.

00:23:03.320 | - Exactly.

00:23:04.320 | - Is there anything else, though, that could, you know--

00:23:06.320 | - What's like the wind speed or gusting kind of condition,

00:23:09.320 | Max, and so on?

00:23:10.320 | - So we're actually very tolerant to that.

00:23:12.320 | It was actually, it was interesting--

00:23:14.320 | - It's probably better than a winged aircraft,

00:23:16.320 | I would imagine, right?

00:23:17.320 | - Right. - Yeah.

00:23:18.320 | - And so there's these folks at NASA

00:23:20.320 | who are working on wildfire prevention.

00:23:22.320 | - Yeah.

00:23:23.320 | - And they came and did a,

00:23:25.320 | not the wildfire prevention folks,

00:23:27.320 | but NASA came and did an acoustic survey

00:23:29.320 | where they put out a whole array of microphones

00:23:32.320 | and we flew the aircraft in hover and transition,

00:23:35.320 | over flight, et cetera,

00:23:37.320 | and measured the acoustic signature

00:23:38.320 | and showed that it was really low

00:23:41.320 | and could fit into the environment.

00:23:42.320 | In terms of, but yesterday I was having a conversation

00:23:45.320 | with them on wildfire prevention.

00:23:46.320 | They're like, these kinds of aircraft

00:23:48.320 | are gonna be game changers for wildfire

00:23:50.320 | because with helicopters,

00:23:51.320 | they can't handle really turbulent conditions--

00:23:53.320 | - Right.

00:23:54.320 | - When you've got lots of convection from the wildfire.

00:23:55.320 | And-- - And you have six motors.

00:23:57.320 | - We have six rotors.

00:23:58.320 | And so there's this thing called vortex ring state

00:24:01.320 | that affects vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.

00:24:04.320 | And you aren't gonna have all six rotors

00:24:06.320 | go into vortex ring state at the same time.

00:24:08.320 | And you can also,

00:24:09.320 | one of the cool things they found out with the Ospreys,

00:24:11.320 | if you just tilt the rotors forward,

00:24:12.320 | that you can very, very quickly get out of vortex ring state.

00:24:15.320 | - Yeah, that's cool.

00:24:16.320 | - So basically, these new classes of aircraft

00:24:18.320 | and what you can do with electric propulsion,

00:24:20.320 | and I don't think we've talked about that enough,

00:24:22.320 | is what a game changer electric propulsion is.

00:24:24.320 | - Can you talk about the acoustic issue?

00:24:26.320 | So give us some context for the decibel tolerance,

00:24:31.320 | where, and what was, you know, in a city,

00:24:34.320 | and give us a comparison to stuff that exists today,

00:24:36.320 | a big truck, diesel truck, helicopter,

00:24:38.320 | like, and what do we need to be at

00:24:40.320 | for this to be ubiquitously accepted in cities?

00:24:43.320 | And then what's the technology needed

00:24:45.320 | to get the acoustic breakthroughs needed?

00:24:47.320 | - Yeah, so the background noise level in cities

00:24:50.320 | is around 65 decibels.

00:24:51.320 | And so we set that as our threshold

00:24:53.320 | for this is the level that we want things,

00:24:57.320 | you know, want our aircraft to be below

00:24:59.320 | during takeoff and landing.

00:25:00.320 | - You don't wanna be beyond background.

00:25:02.320 | - Right, we wanna be below 45 decibels in overflight.

00:25:05.320 | And we've achieved both of those goals.

00:25:08.320 | You know, you asked about other things.

00:25:10.320 | You know, I think a garbage truck is 80 or 90 decibels.

00:25:14.320 | - They're the worst.

00:25:15.320 | - Exactly.

00:25:16.320 | - The worst, like, I mean.

00:25:17.320 | - Every 10 decibels is an order of magnitude

00:25:19.320 | more noise energy.

00:25:20.320 | So it's, you know, a jet engine is like 110 decibels.

00:25:24.320 | Helicopters are between 80 and 100 decibels.

00:25:28.320 | The other thing about helicopters

00:25:29.320 | that people find really annoying

00:25:31.320 | is it's this low-frequency wop-wop.

00:25:33.320 | And that low-frequency sound travels long distance

00:25:35.320 | through the atmosphere and--

00:25:38.320 | - So what's the tech needed?

00:25:39.320 | - Like it shakes buildings and really annoys people.

00:25:42.320 | - What's the tech needed to bring the acoustics?

00:25:44.320 | Like how hard is--

00:25:45.320 | - Well, I mean, you know, when I started Joby in 2009,

00:25:49.320 | so it was 15 years ago this week.

00:25:54.320 | So it was like, I've been working on this a long time.

00:25:56.320 | I've been dreaming about it since I was a kid.

00:25:58.320 | (audience applauding)

00:26:01.320 | And it's incredible to see the industry that we've built.

00:26:04.320 | And again, yesterday to see like thousands of people gather

00:26:08.320 | just to focus on all of the issues

00:26:10.320 | of bringing this to their cities around the world.

00:26:12.320 | So that's really exciting.

00:26:15.320 | And the rollout and the impact that this is gonna have

00:26:20.320 | on cities is just really, really exciting.

00:26:22.320 | - So let me ask you guys--

00:26:23.320 | - In fact, you're spinning the propeller slower.

00:26:26.320 | That's what you're doing.

00:26:27.320 | That's what electric engines do.

00:26:28.320 | That just create lower noise.

00:26:29.320 | That gets you like 90% of the benefit.

00:26:31.320 | And then from there you work to all the little efficiencies

00:26:35.320 | to get that stuff out.

00:26:36.320 | - So let me ask you guys about the convenience

00:26:38.320 | of owning a car.

00:26:39.320 | And like America kind of popularized this idea

00:26:42.320 | that everyone should own a car.

00:26:43.320 | And then we all got a car.

00:26:44.320 | The benefit of a car is it's point to point.

00:26:46.320 | I can go from any point A to any point B.

00:26:48.320 | How do you guys think about the challenge of,

00:26:52.320 | it's such a pain in the ass to go to a port,

00:26:54.320 | just like it's a pain in the ass to go to a bus station,

00:26:57.320 | take a bus or subway, go to a spot.

00:26:59.320 | In New York it works where things are dense enough.

00:27:01.320 | But like in most cities in the United States,

00:27:04.320 | this is like, it is preferable to take a car

00:27:08.320 | 'cause I can do point A to point B.

00:27:09.320 | And my convenience, which my time,

00:27:11.320 | is always faster taking a car.

00:27:13.320 | How do you kind of think about the calculus

00:27:15.320 | of the benefit here when I have to go to a port

00:27:17.320 | to be able to take the vehicle to the next port?

00:27:20.320 | - I think you're spot on.

00:27:21.320 | I think of where we are today is very similar

00:27:23.320 | to where the automotive industry was in the 1890s,

00:27:27.320 | where it was before we had the ability

00:27:29.320 | to mass produce cars.

00:27:30.320 | We were building tens and then hundreds of cars.

00:27:33.320 | And that didn't give the scale.

00:27:36.320 | And so what we were using cars for was taxis.

00:27:39.320 | We are in a similar mode today

00:27:41.320 | where we are going to use these aircraft as taxis.

00:27:44.320 | We still need to save people time.

00:27:46.320 | And so there's only gonna be select routes

00:27:48.320 | where this is a game changer

00:27:49.320 | because of the multimodal nature where you need to,

00:27:52.320 | and you may not have a takeoff and landing location

00:27:55.320 | exactly where you wanna leave from and go to.

00:27:58.320 | But over time, if we can get the acoustic signature down,

00:28:02.320 | if we can make these aircraft even quieter

00:28:04.320 | than they are today,

00:28:05.320 | rather than needing to go to a dedicated vertiport

00:28:08.320 | to do this, the dream is to eventually be able

00:28:11.320 | to land them at your house.

00:28:12.320 | - Adam, let's talk about propulsion for a second.

00:28:16.320 | Energy density, cost, those trade-offs, speed,

00:28:19.320 | these are all variables

00:28:20.320 | that kind of just work opposing each other.

00:28:23.320 | What were some design decisions you guys made?

00:28:26.320 | And did you have to remake some of those?

00:28:29.320 | Did you change your mind at some point?

00:28:31.320 | And just walk us through that process.

00:28:33.320 | - The biggest challenge, I think,

00:28:34.320 | of building these aircraft

00:28:36.320 | is just the time it takes to do it.

00:28:39.320 | It is very expensive,

00:28:41.320 | and it does not fit any typical model,

00:28:43.320 | meaning the venture guys don't like it.

00:28:45.320 | And so they're like, "Sorry, you want a billion dollars

00:28:48.320 | "up front to build this?

00:28:49.320 | "Like, that's terrible.

00:28:50.320 | "You rejected me, you rejected me.

00:28:51.320 | "I don't think I met with you."

00:28:53.320 | (audience laughing)

00:28:54.320 | Everybody rejected, probably all of us up here.

00:28:57.320 | And so it's not a typical, you know what I mean?

00:29:00.320 | Like, "Mom, that's the reality."

00:29:01.320 | So there was this crazy period of time in 2021

00:29:05.320 | where the capital markets opened up.

00:29:06.320 | It was a dream scenario.

00:29:07.320 | - Totally.

00:29:08.320 | - Raised a lot of money from the public markets.

00:29:10.320 | That was nuts.

00:29:11.320 | So that allowed this to happen.

00:29:12.320 | And then from there, for me, what we did was we said,

00:29:15.320 | "Okay, what is the business case?"

00:29:17.320 | Meaning we thought, when we looked at, like,

00:29:19.320 | what are these, we call them hero routes,

00:29:20.320 | where there's a lot of people doing these trips,

00:29:23.320 | like Manhattan to JFK.

00:29:24.320 | It's like 30 million people go from Manhattan

00:29:27.320 | to one of the three big airports in New York.

00:29:29.320 | Okay, so all we have to do is--

00:29:31.320 | - No brainer, that's a no brainer.

00:29:32.320 | - Yeah, all we have to do is have a couple

00:29:34.320 | around the city, which already exist.

00:29:36.320 | There's downtown, Wall Street heliport,

00:29:38.320 | west side, east side.

00:29:39.320 | - East side heliport, yeah.

00:29:40.320 | - And just put them into the three airports.

00:29:41.320 | And that'll be an amazing thing to start with.

00:29:43.320 | Okay, so short routes, 20 to 50 mile routes.

00:29:45.320 | Now let's design an aircraft around that,

00:29:47.320 | the fastest thing we can do to get to market

00:29:49.320 | so we don't die before the investors decide,

00:29:52.320 | "Nah, we're kind of like done with this one.

00:29:54.320 | "Now on to the next thing.

00:29:55.320 | "Oh, AI, here, let's everybody go all in on AI."

00:29:58.320 | (audience laughing)

00:29:59.320 | And so I'm just moving as fast as we can.

00:30:02.320 | So that was the biggest trade-off.

00:30:03.320 | So it was always, what is the minimum thing

00:30:05.320 | we need to do to get that done?

00:30:07.320 | So we need to look at speed range and payload.

00:30:09.320 | Payload is definitely the hardest

00:30:11.320 | because batteries are heavy

00:30:13.320 | and there's just physics you're always fighting.

00:30:15.320 | And then speed, the difference between,

00:30:17.320 | these planes wanna fly around 120 miles per hour.

00:30:20.320 | If you go faster, it's just more drag.

00:30:22.320 | It just kills your battery faster.

00:30:24.320 | So you don't, the difference between 120,

00:30:26.320 | 150 on a 10 mile flight doesn't really matter.

00:30:29.320 | It's more of how do you go at least

00:30:32.320 | that 20 to 50 mile route and go at least,

00:30:35.320 | call it 120 miles per hour and do that as fast as possible.

00:30:37.320 | - And what kind of batteries did you guys choose?

00:30:40.320 | What chemistry?

00:30:41.320 | - Lithium ion cells, commercial off the shelf stuff.

00:30:44.320 | Molly cell makes, you can find those cells today.

00:30:46.320 | There's millions of them that are made

00:30:48.320 | and power tools and super cars

00:30:50.320 | and pretty conventional off the shelf stuff.

00:30:52.320 | - What's the range?

00:30:53.320 | - The range of the aircraft?

00:30:54.320 | We're designing to go up to a hundred miles

00:30:56.320 | but the real design is around rapid

00:30:59.320 | back to back 20 to 50 mile trips.

00:31:01.320 | - What do you guys all need

00:31:02.320 | in terms of battery technology improvement

00:31:04.320 | from where we sit today or do you not?

00:31:06.320 | And what's on the horizon

00:31:07.320 | in terms of battery technology improvements?

00:31:09.320 | What does that unlock in terms of range?

00:31:11.320 | - Yeah, so the batteries that we're certifying

00:31:12.320 | our aircraft with have a specific energy

00:31:15.320 | of about 300 watt hours per kilogram.

00:31:17.320 | To put that in context,

00:31:18.320 | when I started the company in 2009,

00:31:21.320 | we had cells that had sufficient specific power

00:31:25.320 | to do a vertical takeoff,

00:31:26.320 | but also we're at about 170 watt hours per kilogram.

00:31:30.320 | So we've almost doubled the specific energy

00:31:33.320 | in the cells over the last 15 years.

00:31:35.320 | That we have cells in our lab

00:31:38.320 | and then there's a third dimension

00:31:40.320 | which really matters is the life.

00:31:42.320 | And so we have the cells were taking the certification

00:31:47.320 | or give us a 10,025 mile flights.

00:31:52.320 | So our kind of sweet spot is also

00:31:55.320 | in those shorter range flights

00:31:58.320 | and we wanna be able to do a lot of flights

00:32:01.320 | between replacements both

00:32:04.320 | for the environmental impact of it,

00:32:05.320 | but also from the economics

00:32:07.320 | of replacing those battery packs.

00:32:09.320 | - And when the plane takes off,

00:32:11.320 | that's a lot of energy usage.

00:32:14.320 | The wings tilt forward

00:32:15.320 | and now you're flying more like these Ospreys as a plane,

00:32:19.320 | the energy goes way down the consumption

00:32:21.320 | and then on landing,

00:32:22.320 | you gotta be very careful

00:32:23.320 | and use a lot more energy, is that correct?

00:32:25.320 | - Yeah, and there's different trade-offs you can make.

00:32:29.320 | Basically, the more propulsors you have,

00:32:31.320 | the smaller each propulsor is

00:32:33.320 | and the heavier your disc loading

00:32:35.320 | and the higher the amount of power you're using in hover,

00:32:38.320 | the harder you're pulling on the batteries.

00:32:43.320 | But then more propulsors also gives you more redundancy.

00:32:46.320 | So there's a trade there.

00:32:48.320 | - Breast tax, when do you each think

00:32:51.320 | we're gonna pick a quarter in a year?

00:32:54.320 | So fourth quarter 2025, second quarter 2026,

00:32:59.320 | you all have to answer it.

00:33:00.320 | You agreed backstage.

00:33:02.320 | (audience laughing)

00:33:03.320 | And Americans will be able to give money

00:33:07.320 | to get in one of these, not a test flight,

00:33:10.320 | you know, in a major city in America

00:33:13.320 | when we all be able to use it.

00:33:16.320 | Not just yours.

00:33:18.320 | - Yeah, these guys should answer for themselves,

00:33:20.320 | but I think they'll get it done in 2026

00:33:24.320 | and you should yell at me.

00:33:25.320 | - Pick a quarter.

00:33:26.320 | - Oh, man, I don't know.

00:33:27.320 | First quarter. - Q4, be safe.

00:33:29.320 | - First quarter, 2026.

00:33:30.320 | I wanna give 'em some heat.

00:33:31.320 | We'll be a couple years after that.

00:33:32.320 | - But that's an incredible thing.

00:33:33.320 | I mean, we're less, you know, a year plus away.

00:33:37.320 | That's crazy.

00:33:39.320 | - Now you should, tell me how you feel

00:33:41.320 | about my expectations.

00:33:42.320 | (audience laughing)

00:33:44.320 | - I think pretty clearly there's a route

00:33:46.320 | to do this internationally next year.

00:33:48.320 | And so I think we'll launch with passengers next year.

00:33:52.320 | - He said in the US.

00:33:53.320 | - I know, I'll start there.

00:33:54.320 | I'll start there in 2025.

00:33:57.320 | My job is to make sure we have a safe aircraft.

00:33:58.320 | - Which quarter?

00:33:59.320 | - I think probably fourth quarter.

00:34:00.320 | - Perfect.

00:34:01.320 | - I think we have a,

00:34:02.320 | my job is to create a safe aircraft.

00:34:03.320 | If Pete Buttigieg called and said,

00:34:05.320 | "Hey, there's a way to do this in the US.

00:34:07.320 | "I'm gonna help cut through all the red tape

00:34:09.320 | "and we're gonna help you get it done."

00:34:10.320 | Like, my phone's on, I'm ready.

00:34:12.320 | Call me.

00:34:13.320 | We'll find a way to do it.

00:34:14.320 | - I would love to have,

00:34:15.320 | Pete, why don't we invite Pete?

00:34:16.320 | He seems dynamic.

00:34:17.320 | - So he was actually, yeah.

00:34:18.320 | We nearly had him.

00:34:20.320 | - Yeah.

00:34:21.320 | - Very close.

00:34:22.320 | - So I think we're on a timeline

00:34:27.320 | which we publicly announced

00:34:29.320 | to begin commercial service in the UAE next year.

00:34:35.320 | - You think Q4 2025 as well?

00:34:38.320 | - I think that's, it's likely.

00:34:40.320 | - Or Q5.

00:34:41.320 | - I think it's at the back end of next year.

00:34:42.320 | - How much though?

00:34:44.320 | - I mean, we will begin a non,

00:34:47.320 | you know, begin operations before that,

00:34:50.320 | but we will not,

00:34:51.320 | in terms of being able to buy a ticket.

00:34:53.320 | - Have you figured out the flight profile

00:34:55.320 | that you're gonna start with?

00:34:56.320 | Like it's airport to X or something like that?

00:34:58.320 | - We have four vertiports

00:35:00.320 | that we're planning to build in Dubai.

00:35:04.320 | And the RTA, which is the--

00:35:06.320 | - I would like one from the airport to the wind,

00:35:10.320 | which opens in 2027.

00:35:12.320 | - Yeah, from Dubai to the new wind.

00:35:13.320 | - They're opening a wind.

00:35:14.320 | - It's a little far 'cause it's in Iraq,

00:35:15.320 | so it's a little far away.

00:35:16.320 | - There's a wind in Dubai that's opening?

00:35:18.320 | - Yeah, they're opening a wind, yeah.

00:35:20.320 | - That's sick, we gotta go.

00:35:23.320 | - All kidding aside.

00:35:24.320 | - That's awesome.

00:35:25.320 | - I wanna talk to you guys.

00:35:26.320 | We talked yesterday with Elon about this.

00:35:28.320 | You know, he said it's taken longer

00:35:29.320 | to get approval to launch Starship

00:35:31.320 | than it did to take launch.

00:35:32.320 | So this sort of push on regulatory,

00:35:34.320 | we're hearing over and over again.

00:35:35.320 | You work with the FAA closely.

00:35:38.320 | Can you just describe the path to bring them along,

00:35:42.320 | get the certifications that you need,

00:35:45.320 | and how much of a push or a pull that is

00:35:47.320 | in each of your businesses?

00:35:48.320 | - Yeah, I guess I'll just start, you know,

00:35:50.320 | obviously from the autonomy standpoint,

00:35:53.320 | specifically, you know, we're really,

00:35:55.320 | we're trying to push the frontier.

00:35:56.320 | And so whenever you're engaging with a regulator,

00:35:58.320 | no matter if it's aviation or if it's biotech

00:36:00.320 | or some other thing, if you're really,

00:36:02.320 | really on the frontier, it means that the regulator

00:36:05.320 | doesn't necessarily understand the technology

00:36:08.320 | any better than you do.

00:36:09.320 | And so a part of it needs to be kind of a journey

00:36:12.320 | where you're going together to really learn

00:36:14.320 | how to make it safe.

00:36:15.320 | At some point, you need to be regulated.

00:36:18.320 | You know, there needs to be a process

00:36:20.320 | of you putting forth, you know,

00:36:22.320 | engaging in what are the requirements,

00:36:24.320 | you putting forth, here's how we're gonna meet

00:36:26.320 | those requirements, and then there's a process.

00:36:28.320 | I think that, you know, honestly, from my standpoint,

00:36:31.320 | that actually works okay.

00:36:33.320 | I just wish that it was a little more responsive

00:36:37.320 | or engaging on some of the deep technical subjects

00:36:40.320 | that we have to advance.

00:36:41.320 | - Do they have the people inside the FAA?

00:36:43.320 | - That's part of the challenge.

00:36:44.320 | So part of the challenge is that in aviation,

00:36:47.320 | partially because of what Peter Thiel said yesterday,

00:36:49.320 | you know, there's sort of a generation of,

00:36:51.320 | you know, if you went into aviation,

00:36:52.320 | when I went into aviation, the demographics

00:36:55.320 | were completely upside down.

00:36:56.320 | You know, people were retiring, new people

00:36:58.320 | weren't coming into the industry.

00:36:59.320 | And so many of the experts in the FAA

00:37:02.320 | that have regulated some of these systems

00:37:04.320 | that have created really safe airplanes have retired.

00:37:07.320 | There's a lot of new people coming into the industry,

00:37:09.320 | which is great, but don't necessarily have

00:37:12.320 | the expertise of having built some of the systems

00:37:14.320 | that we're now building.

00:37:15.320 | And so there's some way that we almost need

00:37:17.320 | to get people to come through the industry and then--

00:37:20.320 | - I think this is a really important point,

00:37:22.320 | and it's counter to what RFK Jr. has been saying

00:37:25.320 | over and over again, and this is why I push back on him.

00:37:28.320 | I'm sorry this is off topic.

00:37:30.320 | There is a very important reason

00:37:32.320 | to have people from industry become part

00:37:36.320 | of the regulatory framework for regulating the industry.

00:37:39.320 | Because if they don't, they don't know how,

00:37:41.320 | and they're gonna have a complete aversion

00:37:44.320 | to embracing technological innovation.

00:37:46.320 | That's why I think it's important

00:37:47.320 | that there is a rotation of people

00:37:49.320 | that are, you know, consequentially

00:37:51.320 | not economically motivated in some way,

00:37:53.320 | but that understand the technology and can motivate it.

00:37:56.320 | But in that framework, let me ask you guys,

00:37:58.320 | in markets where there is a regulatory framework

00:38:01.320 | that allows for accelerated output of innovation,

00:38:03.320 | let's take China for an example.

00:38:05.320 | There's a good A/B test maybe underway right now.

00:38:08.320 | What companies are doing eVTOL technology in China?

00:38:11.320 | How good are they?

00:38:12.320 | And then given the way that the Chinese government

00:38:14.320 | can kind of step in and accelerate outcomes,

00:38:16.320 | are we going to see and are we seeing eVTOL technology

00:38:20.320 | kind of coming to market fast,

00:38:22.320 | and in a kind of accelerated way in China,

00:38:24.320 | like we're seeing with nuclear and other tools

00:38:26.320 | that the government's saying is a priority and a mandate?

00:38:28.320 | - Yeah, I mean, you have Ehang and Autoflight,

00:38:30.320 | and they're-- - Those are Chinese companies.

00:38:32.320 | - X-Fang, and, you know, a bunch of them

00:38:33.320 | are making great progress.

00:38:34.320 | There's a lot of enthusiasm in China.

00:38:36.320 | The regulatory pathway there is more forward-leaning,

00:38:41.320 | I think, as Adam pointed out.

00:38:44.320 | And I think you're gonna see more rapid iteration.

00:38:48.320 | I think the good news here in the U.S.

00:38:50.320 | is that the FAA is in the process

00:38:52.320 | of releasing something called Mosaic,

00:38:54.320 | which for aircraft that are smaller than ours,

00:38:57.320 | aircraft with, like, two passengers in 'em,

00:39:00.320 | more of a personal ownership type of thing,

00:39:02.320 | that's gonna allow much more rapid development

00:39:05.320 | and a lighter touch from the FAA.

00:39:08.320 | Just to put this in context,

00:39:09.320 | the FAA has done, I think, an incredible job,

00:39:12.320 | and they've really been leaning in.

00:39:13.320 | When I went and first talked to them in 2009,

00:39:15.320 | they thought this was, like, absolutely crazy.

00:39:19.320 | Like, they just did not think

00:39:20.320 | we were gonna be able to build an electric aircraft,

00:39:23.320 | let alone one that could take off and land vertically,

00:39:25.320 | and which was quiet in all these different dimensions.

00:39:28.320 | We then, you know, began working with them regularly in 2015,

00:39:32.320 | began formal certification in 2018,

00:39:34.320 | had our Stage 4 G1 in 2020, G2, and then G3,

00:39:42.320 | and now we're working on Stage 4.

00:39:43.320 | So, you know, with each, you know,

00:39:47.320 | we are building momentum.

00:39:48.320 | We are writing all the rules.

00:39:50.320 | It's very heavy lifting, and--

00:39:54.320 | - Joe Ben told me once,

00:39:56.320 | 'cause Joe Ben has been kind of the first

00:39:58.320 | through the pipeline there,

00:39:59.320 | and he said, "I feel like a pipe cleaner

00:40:01.320 | "for how to certify these things."

00:40:03.320 | And I guess there's one thing I would just throw

00:40:05.320 | into the regulatory, like, context,

00:40:07.320 | 'cause I think you bring up a good point,

00:40:09.320 | is it's not like these things were sitting on the shelf

00:40:11.320 | and a regulator was sitting somewhere saying,

00:40:13.320 | "You can't use that."

00:40:15.320 | We have been on a journey that we just all talked about,

00:40:17.320 | getting these things ready.

00:40:19.320 | So they're now just at the point where they're ready,

00:40:22.320 | and the question is, can we take that first step

00:40:25.320 | in the U.S. to really get it done?

00:40:27.320 | - And does the U.S.,

00:40:29.320 | do they approach that from a culture of,

00:40:32.320 | "Let's just try something.

00:40:33.320 | "If we get it wrong, we can iterate it,"

00:40:35.320 | or is it more, "We must get this right

00:40:38.320 | "because there's all kinds of consequences,

00:40:40.320 | "political or otherwise."

00:40:41.320 | - It's so much more simple than that.

00:40:43.320 | They want to do it.

00:40:44.320 | The people at the top are actually genuinely

00:40:46.320 | very excited.

00:40:47.320 | Former FAA Administrator, Billy Nolan,

00:40:49.320 | stepped down from his role, joined Archer.

00:40:51.320 | The new one, Mike Whitaker, came from an eVTOL company.

00:40:55.320 | They were very excited to do it.

00:40:56.320 | The challenge is, with probably most regulatory set-ups,

00:41:01.320 | is not a lot of incentive.

00:41:02.320 | It's not like there's a downside to not doing it,

00:41:04.320 | a lot of disincentive to do it,

00:41:06.320 | meaning if something goes bad,

00:41:07.320 | there's only downside there,

00:41:09.320 | and it's a slog and it's hard.

00:41:11.320 | This is hard.

00:41:12.320 | This is not easy to go through all this.

00:41:13.320 | The incentives are not great,

00:41:16.320 | and then on top of all of it,

00:41:17.320 | there's no policy saying,

00:41:18.320 | "Hey, America needs to be innovative.

00:41:20.320 | "We need to go do this.

00:41:21.320 | "Let's go and get it."

00:41:22.320 | There's no culture to do it.

00:41:23.320 | - Why is there no mandate?

00:41:24.320 | It would be great if some leader said,

00:41:27.320 | "You guys need to get this done,

00:41:29.320 | "and we need to have these things flying safely

00:41:31.320 | "in the next 36 months."

00:41:33.320 | How does that happen in our current system?

00:41:36.320 | I can understand how it happens in UAE.

00:41:37.320 | - Trump literally put out a video on it.

00:41:38.320 | He put out a video, agenda number whatever,

00:41:40.320 | 39 or something like that,

00:41:42.320 | where he talked about building future cities.

00:41:44.320 | I'm guessing he went to Dubai and then--

00:41:46.320 | - I'm sorry, but is that something, Adam,

00:41:48.320 | that we could change through an executive order?

00:41:51.320 | - I think it's culture you have to change,

00:41:52.320 | meaning we will do this

00:41:53.320 | and break down all the barriers to get it done

00:41:56.320 | because it's not that hard.

00:41:58.320 | We've all laid out the rules to certify.

00:42:00.320 | Why can't you let us just go do the tests,

00:42:02.320 | and then if we do the tests,

00:42:03.320 | you check them off, we're good.

00:42:05.320 | It shouldn't be that easy.

00:42:06.320 | - If you're a bureaucrat,

00:42:07.320 | if you're working in one of these organizations,

00:42:09.320 | if it goes poorly, you're in big trouble.

00:42:12.320 | If it goes well--

00:42:13.320 | - But are you, though?

00:42:14.320 | - Well, the SEC had this mandate,

00:42:16.320 | it's very similar,

00:42:17.320 | to allow more accredited investors,

00:42:20.320 | sophisticated investors,

00:42:21.320 | allow people to take tests,

00:42:24.320 | and to just allow more access

00:42:25.320 | to private companies and investing,

00:42:26.320 | which would be good for a company like yours,

00:42:28.320 | and they have slow-walked it.

00:42:30.320 | So I think that's part of the problem is why--

00:42:33.320 | - Just to build on what Adam's saying.

00:42:34.320 | Okay, let's just say the SEC doesn't do anything,

00:42:36.320 | or they do it and they make a mistake.

00:42:38.320 | Nobody at the SEC will get fired.

00:42:40.320 | I don't think the culture is

00:42:42.320 | that if a commercial airline has an issue,

00:42:45.320 | or, for example, in the 737 MAX issue,

00:42:49.320 | did more people at Boeing get fired,

00:42:51.320 | did more people at the FAA get fired,

00:42:52.320 | or did nobody get fired?

00:42:53.320 | - Nobody.

00:42:54.320 | - Aviation is different in the comparison

00:42:57.320 | with the SEC, as an example.

00:42:59.320 | Aviation is different.

00:43:00.320 | Actually, aerospace is different,

00:43:01.320 | and I would just call out one thing

00:43:03.320 | that I saw on the stage yesterday,

00:43:04.320 | which really hit me.

00:43:05.320 | If you saw Elon's face when he talked

00:43:08.320 | about the safety of the astronaut,

00:43:10.320 | you saw his face.

00:43:11.320 | - He was almost crying.

00:43:12.320 | - Yes, he was almost crying.

00:43:13.320 | And that's what aerospace is all about.

00:43:16.320 | And so there is a,

00:43:18.320 | the reason that the industry has been able

00:43:21.320 | to get to that unbelievable statistic

00:43:23.320 | that I just talked about

00:43:24.320 | is that it's gone through awful accidents.

00:43:27.320 | It's gone through terrible things that have happened

00:43:29.320 | and have turned into the rules

00:43:31.320 | that we are now all being regulated towards.

00:43:33.320 | What's happening now is that we're showing up

00:43:35.320 | with new technology.

00:43:36.320 | So I'll give you an example, like regulations.

00:43:38.320 | They currently say the pilot shall do X,

00:43:41.320 | and it says that 50 times,

00:43:43.320 | but we don't have a pilot.

00:43:44.320 | And so when we're showing up,

00:43:45.320 | we have to kind of rewrite what that is.

00:43:47.320 | I understand why it says the pilot shall do X.

00:43:49.320 | It says that because there were accidents in the past

00:43:51.320 | that have now been regulated out of existence.

00:43:53.320 | - But you're also looking at it

00:43:54.320 | from the negative point of view.

00:43:56.320 | How many lives could be saved

00:43:57.320 | if we got this stuff into,

00:43:59.320 | pick a country, India or Africa,

00:44:01.320 | we could bring clean water and medicine

00:44:04.320 | and supplies to people, disaster relief.

00:44:06.320 | It doesn't cost $10,000 an hour

00:44:08.320 | to fly a Blackhawk anymore

00:44:09.320 | into some disaster relief situation.

00:44:11.320 | It costs $500 an hour,

00:44:13.320 | and we can send 50 immediately,

00:44:15.320 | and they're always available.

00:44:16.320 | The uptime is super huge.

00:44:17.320 | And so I actually think you could save a lot of lives too.

00:44:20.320 | - And what about saving lives here in the US?

00:44:22.320 | We lose 40,000 people every year on the roads.

00:44:25.320 | - Yeah, which is insane.

00:44:26.320 | - And we fly almost as many miles as we drive.

00:44:30.320 | So driving is more than 10,000 times more dangerous

00:44:33.320 | per passenger mile than flying is.

00:44:36.320 | So we could actually,

00:44:37.320 | by moving people into the air

00:44:39.320 | for their daily transportation,

00:44:41.320 | save thousands and tens of thousands of lives.

00:44:45.320 | But we need to get the technology out there.

00:44:47.320 | We need to start learning.

00:44:48.320 | - I hope Peter Thiel had it wrong,

00:44:50.320 | and we are going to get flying cars

00:44:51.320 | in the next couple of years.

00:44:53.320 | And I want to thank you all for being here.

00:44:54.320 | Please join me in thanking our panel.

00:44:56.320 | (applause)

Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024

Chapters