E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more

00:00:00.000 | Love you guys. Hey, if you guys are around, you know, and you

00:00:04.680 | want to get a glass of wine and some wine later, maybe next

00:00:08.960 | week or something. Who knows? Maybe we'll get together in

00:00:11.040 | person. Have a glass of wine. I see you soon. I love you guys.

00:00:14.320 | You're about to come to Italy and basically you're gonna gain

00:00:20.400 | 15 pounds.

00:00:21.360 | Okay, so we were there in Italy.

00:00:24.640 | This is a long time ago. This is when we were in Venice.

00:00:26.880 | The quality of Italian white wine is outrageous. Really? It's

00:00:31.080 | outrageous.

00:00:31.960 | Do they have a men's bikini for you? For when we're in Italy? I

00:00:35.840 | would buy that.

00:00:36.320 | Let's just say thank you to the amazing people of Italy for

00:00:40.120 | having what an incredible greatest country for adults to

00:00:43.560 | go on vacation and what an incredible country.

00:00:45.520 | Here we go in 3, 2, hey.

00:00:50.640 | So I was going to everybody. Well,

00:00:56.800 | Motorcycle. Try it again.

00:00:57.760 | 3, 2, hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the all in

00:01:02.520 | podcast. We are here in beautiful Portofino, Italy. And

00:01:07.480 | we have found a new bestie. Introduce yourself. Natalie is

00:01:10.440 | your name?

00:01:10.840 | That is my name. And don't be surprised by my surname.

00:01:14.040 | Ah, you've got a surname. What is the surname?

00:01:17.520 | Pollyangria. No, sorry. Pollyhapitia.

00:01:21.520 | Pollyhapitia. So your cousins apparently, and you run a

00:01:24.960 | biotech business, I understand here in Italy.

00:01:27.320 | In my spare time. Yeah. When somebody else doesn't consume

00:01:30.800 | the life out of me.

00:01:31.640 | Got it. Okay, so you're dealing drugs in Italy. And welcome to

00:01:35.760 | the all in pod. In all seriousness, we are here in

00:01:39.600 | Italy. Because Chamath and Natalie got married. Big round

00:01:45.280 | of applause.

00:01:46.080 | We decided we tape an episode very quickly. But tell us what

00:01:54.920 | was it like at the wedding? Marrying Chamath Pollyhapitia?

00:01:59.520 | Tell us about the wedding.

00:02:00.600 | It was, was a lot of work. And Chamath was, as you can expect,

00:02:08.400 | completely, utterly useless. Yes. We've seen this. In fact,

00:02:13.720 | in fact, counterproductive. He showed up at times really,

00:02:17.040 | really frustrating. Yes. But I love him nonetheless. So here

00:02:20.840 | we are. Very happy.

00:02:22.960 | This is the moment I would like to take credit for 30% of the

00:02:26.640 | wedding. And then a number that you can't dispute. You don't

00:02:30.040 | really know what it means. Yeah. And then everybody ends up

00:02:32.280 | thanking you effusively. Because they're like the 30% that they

00:02:35.520 | love the most. That was me.

00:02:36.640 | Yeah, if you want to make an estimate, 20-30% chance is, you

00:02:40.360 | can't go wrong. Friedberg and Sacks are with us, the Don.

00:02:43.600 | Sacks, you had a lot of clandestine meetings here. Are

00:02:47.200 | we any closer to peace in Ukraine, Russia? I saw you

00:02:50.360 | talking to some Russian emissaries. You've been on the

00:02:53.080 | continent for a full month. Tell us how much...

00:02:55.560 | Yeah, where did you go for 12 hours yesterday, Sacks?

00:02:57.360 | Yeah, I know that you've been on some of these crazy yachts out

00:02:59.680 | here trying to broker peace. How close are we? And how are you

00:03:01.880 | enjoying your time in Europe this summer?

00:03:04.400 | I don't think we're too close. But let me say a word about this

00:03:08.840 | happy couple here. So Natalie is brilliant and unstoppable.

00:03:13.680 | Chamath is superficial and plastic. So this was like the

00:03:18.160 | wedding of Oppenheimer and Barbie. And in that analogy,

00:03:24.120 | Chamath, you're Barbie.

00:03:25.080 | Yes, absolutely. Lots of substance and fire over here. And

00:03:29.720 | complete narcissism and plastic over here. Also the genitalia,

00:03:33.720 | the same size, they can be very smoothed over. Just barely a

00:03:37.680 | bump. Yeah. Okay.

00:03:39.080 | I'm going to leave you guys at your genitalia.

00:03:40.840 | Okay, we'll do a show. Natalie, congratulations. We love you,

00:03:44.240 | sister.

00:03:44.480 | Congratulations.

00:03:45.160 | Thank you, J. Cole, because you celebrated our...

00:03:47.640 | Okay, that's enough.

00:03:48.200 | Enough. Okay, here she goes.

00:03:49.720 | I wasn't talking about Chamath.

00:03:51.280 | Oh, yeah. Cut you off.

00:03:53.040 | Okay, here we go. Here we go. What a great, great week we've

00:03:59.960 | had here. Lots of friends came in.

00:04:02.080 | Lots of friends. Lots of special friends.

00:04:04.200 | Lots of poker.

00:04:04.880 | Lots of friends. Lots of poker.

00:04:06.680 | Lots of poker players that weren't invited to the wedding.

00:04:09.480 | I mean, we walked into the poker game last night and there were

00:04:15.000 | all these guys that I didn't see at the wedding. And you invited

00:04:18.440 | these guys to come to your poker game.

00:04:20.480 | No, let's be honest.

00:04:21.520 | And they didn't get invited to the wedding.

00:04:22.520 | Let's be honest. I think it was the most unbelievably eclectic

00:04:26.000 | guest list of any wedding that's ever happened.

00:04:28.720 | That's very true.

00:04:29.400 | I mean, literally, it's like a two by two matrix of villainy,

00:04:34.120 | wealth, fame, and infamy.

00:04:36.760 | Yes.

00:04:37.280 | I mean, you had every quadrant covered.

00:04:39.240 | Yes.

00:04:39.640 | It was incredible.

00:04:40.600 | Sky and I were joking. It's like walking into the bar on

00:04:43.280 | Tatooine. Star Wars.

00:04:44.920 | (Singing Star Wars theme)

00:04:48.280 | Got smoking hookah in the corner.

00:04:49.640 | We don't serve your kind.

00:04:50.680 | We don't serve your kind.

00:04:52.000 | People chained up.

00:04:52.720 | I mean, it was a whole rigmarole last night.

00:04:55.040 | I could tell that when I was doing my toast, which Shemoth

00:04:58.200 | told me, "No holds barred. Just go for it."

00:05:00.600 | Yeah.

00:05:01.000 | Because my toast, he really meant roast.

00:05:02.800 | Roast. Yeah, he roasted.

00:05:04.240 | The Italians did not get the jokes by the way.

00:05:06.240 | So half the audience was laughing.

00:05:08.320 | The poker guys were laughing.

00:05:10.160 | Yeah.

00:05:10.440 | And then the family section, not laughing.

00:05:13.440 | No, no.

00:05:13.840 | A lot of stunned silence.

00:05:14.840 | I think a lot of them got the jokes and they were in on it.

00:05:17.480 | But what an amazing week we've had here.

00:05:20.560 | Yeah.

00:05:21.440 | And thank you for hosting us, John.

00:05:22.960 | Oh, you're welcome.

00:05:23.320 | It was absolutely wonderful.

00:05:24.720 | This really is in so many ways.

00:05:26.600 | By the way, we should cut in some shots in the video on

00:05:28.560 | where we're sitting right now.

00:05:29.440 | This incredible beach club.

00:05:30.800 | We're looking out here.

00:05:31.800 | This is a photo odgy, right?

00:05:32.320 | Incredible photo odgy.

00:05:33.120 | People sleuthed it out.

00:05:34.000 | I posted a photo of us just meeting out there during our

00:05:36.920 | little board meeting and people immediately sleuthed out.

00:05:39.400 | You're at Langosteria.

00:05:40.880 | Or what's it?

00:05:41.440 | Langosteria Paraggi.

00:05:42.760 | Langosteria.

00:05:43.520 | Yeah.

00:05:44.280 | I guess famous red beach restaurant.

00:05:46.600 | I mean, Langosteria has these two incredible

00:05:48.640 | restaurants in Milano.

00:05:49.600 | Three.

00:05:50.240 | They're just top of the top.

00:05:52.920 | And they have this incredible beach restaurant here and it's

00:05:55.240 | the hotel or sorry, it's the restaurant that is beside the

00:05:59.160 | beach club that's also owned by the Splendido where we're,

00:06:02.200 | where you guys are all staying.

00:06:03.360 | So yeah, it's been, it's been an amazing couple of days.

00:06:06.240 | This little block is called Paraggi?

00:06:08.760 | This part is Paraggi.

00:06:09.800 | And then if you go just a little bit further, you're in

00:06:12.200 | Portofino proper.

00:06:13.280 | Yeah.

00:06:13.720 | Yeah.

00:06:14.240 | Amazing.

00:06:15.000 | Wonderful food.

00:06:16.440 | Incredible food.

00:06:17.720 | Unbelievable.

00:06:18.400 | We've eaten like Kings and Queens as the case may be.

00:06:22.280 | And just the hospitality in Italy is amazing.

00:06:26.000 | One of my favorite places.

00:06:26.800 | I just want to say to all of you guys and to all of our

00:06:29.160 | friends, I mean, you guys literally flew halfway around

00:06:32.320 | the world for three days.

00:06:34.320 | Yeah.

00:06:34.600 | You did ruin all our summer plans.

00:06:35.960 | I mean, it was incredible.

00:06:37.040 | And frankly, I picked the, we picked the three worst days

00:06:39.520 | Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

00:06:40.880 | Yeah.

00:06:41.800 | If you had a job, you had to work.

00:06:44.000 | Yeah.

00:06:44.200 | A certain person had two rooms rented at the Splendido just

00:06:47.120 | for meetings and he would just be running back meetings and

00:06:49.160 | then trying to go to the, I mean, it's incredible.

00:06:50.960 | You guys, it really means a lot.

00:06:51.960 | I think this whole thing was a conspiracy to convene a high

00:06:54.480 | stakes poker game.

00:06:56.120 | You knew you were spending the summer in Italy.

00:06:58.040 | There was no poker here.

00:06:59.880 | And you're like, how do I get the poker game to come to Italy?

00:07:04.440 | He probably netted a profit to cover the wedding.

00:07:06.600 | No, not to cover the wedding.

00:07:08.320 | But I did, I did win a $1.2 million pot from.

00:07:11.480 | That was crazy.

00:07:12.000 | That was crazy.

00:07:12.720 | My favorite poker story is that you got a call out of the blue

00:07:15.200 | from neighborhood.

00:07:17.800 | It's the best.

00:07:19.000 | Get a text.

00:07:19.520 | Oh my God.

00:07:20.440 | Need room Splendido.

00:07:22.560 | I'd like two in the morning.

00:07:24.040 | And I was, I looked at my phone and I'm like, why is texting me

00:07:27.400 | at two in the morning?

00:07:28.040 | Yeah.

00:07:28.360 | Need room Splendido.

00:07:29.320 | And I said, it's Chamath.

00:07:30.480 | Is everything okay?

00:07:31.280 | Do you need any help?

00:07:32.360 | Need room Splendido.

00:07:33.960 | And I said, I'm not your fucking travel coordinator.

00:07:36.840 | And he goes, can you help me get a room at the Splendido hotel?

00:07:39.000 | I said, what you're here?

00:07:40.960 | So I said, well, why don't you just meander into our game?

00:07:43.720 | Yeah.

00:07:44.160 | And so he actually came to the wedding.

00:07:45.760 | Was he randomly in the neighborhood?

00:07:47.640 | He was in the area.

00:07:48.960 | Well, he was spending a night in, so he thought he would hop over.

00:07:51.240 | Hey, oh, that's such a bad joke.

00:07:56.440 | I stole that joke from you.

00:07:57.640 | You stole it from me.

00:07:58.320 | I stole it.

00:07:58.840 | Oh, that's how it works in Hollywood.

00:08:00.320 | Okay.

00:08:00.760 | There's a little backstory to all this.

00:08:02.560 | What happened was Chamath told me in the spring, hey, listen, J-Cal,

00:08:06.200 | I'm finally, I'm so excited.

00:08:07.400 | I'm going to marry Nat.

00:08:08.360 | And I said, oh, that's great.

00:08:09.320 | You had the kids and now you're getting married.

00:08:11.640 | It's not the traditional way to do it, but congratulations.

00:08:14.440 | And he said, yeah, we're going to have like a little thing with our families

00:08:17.880 | in Italy, very bespoke, the kids, parents, that's it.

00:08:22.200 | And then, you know, back in Silicon Valley in the Bay Area,

00:08:25.320 | we'll have a backyard party for everybody else.

00:08:27.120 | And I said, great.

00:08:27.760 | Let me know where in Italy we're going.

00:08:29.960 | And Nat said, Amore, it's just going to be the immediate family.

00:08:33.960 | And I said, great.

00:08:34.840 | Where am I going?

00:08:35.640 | Tell me the location.

00:08:36.960 | And if you need an officiant, I'm in.

00:08:39.480 | And then a week later, we get an email.

00:08:43.080 | Nat and Chamath discussed it and they said, you know what?

00:08:46.240 | J-Cal's right.

00:08:47.400 | We should invite everybody to Italy.

00:08:48.920 | And so thanks for making that decision.

00:08:52.120 | Oh, my God.

00:08:52.720 | Thank you guys for coming.

00:08:53.760 | Honestly, it was a dream.

00:08:54.960 | You didn't tell anyone J-Cal was going to officiate.

00:08:57.760 | So we're sitting there Italian style for like two hours assembling for the wedding.

00:09:02.080 | Nothing happens.

00:09:03.360 | You're all just standing around waiting for something to happen.

00:09:05.800 | And then Chamath comes in.

00:09:07.760 | Natalie comes in beautiful, dressed amazing.

00:09:09.960 | The music is incredible.

00:09:11.440 | And they sit there for another 10 minutes and they turn around and they say,

00:09:15.000 | the officiant, we just got a letter.

00:09:16.280 | The officiant is sick.

00:09:17.680 | We need someone.

00:09:18.800 | We need someone to step in.

00:09:20.560 | And then J-Cal pops up in the back.

00:09:22.480 | I got it.

00:09:23.120 | I'll officiant.

00:09:24.040 | Knocks the Italian royalty to the right and the left.

00:09:26.960 | Plows his way through the audience, makes his way to the top.

00:09:29.560 | Pulls out his American bow tie or whatever he had and says, let's do this.

00:09:33.440 | And then we had J-Cal officiate.

00:09:35.640 | You did a wedding in a very J-Cal way.

00:09:37.880 | Yeah. Were you surprised?

00:09:39.040 | Yeah, I was surprised.

00:09:39.640 | You were surprised.

00:09:40.240 | Yeah. A lot of people were surprised.

00:09:42.000 | Yeah, you got me.

00:09:43.400 | Because your original email said J-Cal was going to officiate.

00:09:46.760 | But then we heard nothing for two and a half months.

00:09:49.240 | Yeah. And no one really knew.

00:09:51.160 | And but it was a big secret, right?

00:09:52.560 | We kept it a big secret.

00:09:53.480 | Why not it to be a surprise?

00:09:54.520 | And it was just the avows and the poetry.

00:09:57.880 | Oh, the poetry.

00:09:59.920 | Oh, the shared was amazing.

00:10:02.080 | Amore, amore.

00:10:03.960 | Don't make her. Don't make her.

00:10:04.720 | No, no, no, no, no.

00:10:05.640 | You want to do that?

00:10:06.680 | Can you do a dramatic reading of the poem that I wrote for you?

00:10:09.200 | Oh, this was a.

00:10:12.000 | Chamath wrote a poem.

00:10:13.720 | Roses are red.

00:10:14.880 | And we'll do the setup that comes before.

00:10:17.480 | So this the setup was

00:10:21.080 | that Nat would read Chamath's poems and Chamath would read Nat's poems.

00:10:24.880 | And so Nat had this incredible

00:10:27.520 | Puello poems, incredibly well thought out.

00:10:32.080 | And then Chamath wrote a poem from Anonymous

00:10:36.840 | that he found at a rest stop on the 280

00:10:39.960 | written on the inside of the bathroom stall.

00:10:43.160 | Roses are red.

00:10:45.520 | Violets are.

00:10:47.120 | No, go ahead. Go ahead.

00:10:48.600 | OK, you remember it.

00:10:50.080 | You should have it committed to memory.

00:10:52.280 | Let me think. Yeah.

00:10:53.840 | Roses are red.

00:10:55.880 | Pickles are green.

00:10:58.880 | I love your legs.

00:11:01.560 | And what's in between?

00:11:02.760 | Oh, God, God, it's so embarrassing.

00:11:05.120 | It was so embarrassing.

00:11:06.720 | And she had to read this.

00:11:07.840 | She literally just dropped it in front of all of the Italian.

00:11:10.000 | And the Americans, the Americans all rolled laughing.

00:11:15.480 | Horrific.

00:11:16.720 | It really was like a tattoo.

00:11:18.480 | Her her her first poem was a sonnet from Malene Shakespeare.

00:11:23.000 | My first poem was Beyonce's Cuff It.

00:11:26.400 | Yeah. Where where the last line is, will you sit on top of me?

00:11:30.240 | Which she has to say, looking at her dad.

00:11:32.320 | It was so it was so awkward.

00:11:34.960 | Then her second poem was

00:11:37.400 | something by.

00:11:39.760 | T.S. Eliot, who was it?

00:11:41.840 | Gregory Hoffman, I think it was something Hoffman.

00:11:44.400 | Yeah. And then mine was.

00:11:46.720 | Yeah, this anonymous thing.

00:11:48.280 | And then her third was he Cummings in mine was Dr.

00:11:50.480 | Seuss. But that was charming.

00:11:51.840 | It was nice.

00:11:52.360 | But Dr. Seuss was quite a Daniel Hoffman.

00:11:54.560 | Yes. Well, we had a great time.

00:11:55.960 | There's been a lot of news.

00:11:57.000 | And you got here early, right?

00:11:58.880 | And weren't you like camping along the coastline?

00:12:00.640 | Because you want to. Yes, I went to camp.

00:12:03.920 | Decided to bring San Francisco to this beautiful, pristine.

00:12:08.160 | Yes. Defecating everywhere.

00:12:10.560 | Leaving a trail of needles in his wake.

00:12:12.880 | Cosmic needles.

00:12:14.400 | We're going to have to crash.

00:12:16.760 | You were trying to show.

00:12:17.480 | I did. I did post a thirst trap.

00:12:19.560 | I'm very proud. I'm down 41 pounds from the peak.

00:12:22.080 | 20 pounds with hiking and using the fasting app that Kevin Rose built.

00:12:28.000 | And then the other half is zero.

00:12:30.320 | Great fasting app.

00:12:31.080 | And the other half was Ozempic.

00:12:32.480 | We go. I understand.

00:12:33.200 | What does an app do to help you fast?

00:12:34.640 | You just fast. You don't you click a button.

00:12:36.480 | Do you eat the app?

00:12:37.280 | Gives an animation and then it counts down the clock.

00:12:40.560 | What you're trying to decide whether to eat or not.

00:12:42.360 | You push a button.

00:12:43.080 | Should I eat or not? And it says no.

00:12:44.600 | Yeah. It shows you a picture of yourself.

00:12:46.680 | Just a mirror.

00:12:47.960 | A fat picture. It shows you a fat picture of yourself.

00:12:50.080 | Yeah. Fat picture.

00:12:50.840 | That's what I did.

00:12:51.400 | I took a picture of myself like Fat Jason.

00:12:53.400 | And I just every time I open the refrigerator, it's there.

00:12:56.040 | Can I ask you a question?

00:12:57.000 | Yes. Is it is it are you not allowed to talk about

00:13:00.320 | like fatness now or.

00:13:03.000 | I have strong feelings on this.

00:13:05.080 | I think when I ran marathons my whole life,

00:13:08.760 | I was very svelte, 165 pounds until I was 32.

00:13:13.200 | And then I added two or three pounds until you guys knew me.

00:13:15.520 | And I hit 213 at my peak.

00:13:17.960 | I'm 171 now. 172.

00:13:20.360 | And, you know, I wish more people would have done an intervention.

00:13:25.360 | You were very clear with me.

00:13:26.320 | Hey, you got to lose weight.

00:13:27.240 | We did. Oh, my God. I have to tell.

00:13:28.680 | No, no, no, no, no. I'm telling the story.

00:13:30.320 | No, I can't fucking spike the story. I'm telling the story.

00:13:32.520 | No, no, no, no. You can't spike the story now.

00:13:34.840 | This is your wedding present to me. OK, thank you.

00:13:37.280 | J. Cal. J. Cal is bordering on morbidly obese.

00:13:42.160 | I was this is when I was two, 13, and you're how tall?

00:13:44.560 | Five, nine on a good day. Five and a half.

00:13:46.720 | Yeah, on a good day, by the way, for all

00:13:49.080 | all these people on Twitter, everybody who who meets me always says,

00:13:53.560 | oh, you look so much shorter on camera.

00:13:55.200 | Maybe it's because I slouch, but I'm six foot two, just in case everybody's

00:13:58.440 | curious on a good day.

00:13:59.560 | Anyways, J. Cal.

00:14:01.000 | J. Cal is is bordering on morbidly obese.

00:14:03.520 | So I make a weight bet with him.

00:14:05.760 | Yeah, I was two thirteen. I said I can get to one ninety three.

00:14:08.040 | One. Yeah. One ninety three.

00:14:09.560 | And I was like, I'll give you 10 K a pound or something.

00:14:12.120 | Whatever. It's 100 K bet. It was one hundred thousand dollar bet.

00:14:14.240 | And I had a year. He had a year.

00:14:18.800 | A year goes by. I put it in my calendar.

00:14:20.920 | And what I do is I schedule the poker game

00:14:24.800 | for the day before knowing that we're going to play through midnight.

00:14:29.360 | So I'm like, oh, I'm going to set this guy up.

00:14:31.680 | So I waited a whole year.

00:14:33.920 | Unbelievable. We play poker.

00:14:35.800 | The clock strikes midnight and he had been eating pizza and ice cream.

00:14:39.840 | I'm watching him the whole time.

00:14:41.440 | I'm going to win this hundred thousand dollars.

00:14:43.320 | I never said like that.

00:14:45.000 | I say, hey, it's time. It's twelve.

00:14:46.840 | Oh, what? It's time for the wait.

00:14:48.920 | He says, what? Wait, bet.

00:14:50.640 | And I said, motherfucker, you made a weight bet with me.

00:14:52.840 | But now I just want to hear ago.

00:14:54.560 | I have been one ninety two, one ninety three for months.

00:14:57.400 | I have hit the thing.

00:14:59.440 | So he says he starts panicking.

00:15:01.560 | He does. I weigh myself in the morning.

00:15:03.200 | He says he's panicking.

00:15:04.640 | He says, OK, give me a few minutes.

00:15:06.760 | He runs into my child's bedroom and takes a shit.

00:15:10.000 | I just took a lead. I took a lead.

00:15:12.840 | Try to lose your graphic.

00:15:14.880 | He tried to lose the way to admit who can poo at midnight.

00:15:17.840 | Nobody can poo at midnight.

00:15:19.160 | Anyway, I get on the scale. I'm one ninety five.

00:15:21.400 | And so he wants me to take all my clothes off.

00:15:24.400 | I'm like, no, I say we have to do the way.

00:15:26.640 | And now, in fairness to Jake, I did not pre agree that I had to

00:15:31.640 | that I could pick the time.

00:15:32.880 | So he says I have until midnight, which is true.

00:15:35.560 | So I said, OK, fine.

00:15:37.520 | He goes home, goes home.

00:15:38.840 | I go in the sun.

00:15:39.560 | Not eat. He puts on a sweatsuit.

00:15:41.840 | I go for a run up like Rocky around San Francisco.

00:15:44.560 | He sweats for four hours.

00:15:46.240 | He gets like a tenth of a pound under before midnight.

00:15:49.520 | Yes. And he's like, you owe me one hundred thousand dollars.

00:15:51.480 | No, then he was kind.

00:15:52.880 | He said, look, put me in the mini one for one drop, one drop.

00:15:57.520 | And we'll both go.

00:15:58.440 | And we'll pull it.

00:15:59.560 | We'll chop it up. We had a great time.

00:16:00.520 | Jake, I lost in the first eight hands.

00:16:02.120 | And I'm not sure I lasted longer than you.

00:16:04.440 | I should just burn it.

00:16:07.560 | OK, back to you. But anyway, but but I would say in terms of weight,

00:16:11.760 | it is pernicious in America.

00:16:14.040 | I don't think we should be celebrating it or tolerating it.

00:16:16.760 | I think we should be compassionate.

00:16:18.280 | I think Ozembek and Wigowi are incredible tools.

00:16:21.840 | And Manjaro, I don't I didn't talk about it for the first year.

00:16:25.600 | David, you've done it as well.

00:16:26.600 | And you've been honest that you've tried Wigowi or whatever,

00:16:28.800 | and you lost a lot of weight. So congratulations.

00:16:31.240 | These guys have been skinny forever.

00:16:33.280 | But I think take it seriously.

00:16:36.320 | It takes a lot of discipline, but it can be done.

00:16:40.000 | And I encourage people.

00:16:42.320 | The gains I've gotten from being 40 pounds lighter have been tremendous.

00:16:46.160 | I feel great. My energy level is different.

00:16:49.400 | My thinking is different. My sleep's better. Everything's great.

00:16:51.640 | And so I just want to be around for a long time

00:16:53.680 | so that we can do a thousand episodes of the show for you and the fans.

00:16:56.480 | And yeah, being fat sucks the end.

00:17:01.080 | And if you think you think but do you think it's it's being normalized

00:17:04.480 | and do you think that that's healthy?

00:17:05.800 | What do you think?

00:17:06.600 | I like I think right into the microphone.

00:17:09.360 | No one no one makes no one chooses obesity.

00:17:13.640 | Obesity is a struggle, just like diabetes.

00:17:16.200 | No, no one chooses diabetes. Diabetes is a struggle.

00:17:18.800 | I've done some work, made some investments, been on the board of some companies

00:17:22.640 | that have been involved in trying to address the needs in this space.

00:17:25.680 | And one of the things that we've learned a lot about

00:17:28.680 | is how much of a social stigma it feels.

00:17:31.400 | People that are struggling with obesity and struggling with diabetes

00:17:33.720 | don't feel comfortable actively talking about it

00:17:35.640 | because they hold a deep amount of shame about it.

00:17:38.200 | Yes, they recognize that there's something deeply unhealthy about it

00:17:41.200 | and they feel deep shame because they're often portrayed as having the choice

00:17:46.480 | and making the decisions that got them to this point.

00:17:49.240 | Yeah. And the truth is, we live in a world with extraordinary abundance

00:17:53.080 | in the first world.

00:17:54.200 | We live in a world with extraordinary opportunities for low cost

00:17:56.840 | calorie consumption.

00:17:58.280 | We find a lot of joy in our lifestyles.

00:18:01.280 | And, you know, ultimately living a happy life can lead people to a very sad place.

00:18:06.880 | And so generally, I would say that this is not something

00:18:10.480 | that should be stigmatized in in an open way.

00:18:14.800 | It should be treated with compassion, but it should be spoken about openly,

00:18:17.360 | which is that there is a challenge and a struggle that people have.

00:18:20.800 | And we need to help.

00:18:22.400 | And everyone needs to kind of be cognizant of the fact that that's the thing.

00:18:25.320 | I think we need to I think we're normalizing it.

00:18:27.240 | And I think it's wrong.

00:18:28.360 | Yes, I when I first came to Canada, you see the pictures when I was like

00:18:32.640 | fresh off the boat.

00:18:34.000 | That's what we used to call immigrants.

00:18:35.880 | I was real thin, skinny, real thin.

00:18:38.800 | And then after a year of eating whatever food it was that we could afford.

00:18:43.160 | Yeah, I became really fat.

00:18:45.040 | And you could see it in the pictures.

00:18:46.240 | And I was fat all through my grade school.

00:18:49.280 | I was a little skinny, skinny, fat in the face, but basically fat

00:18:53.520 | all through high school.

00:18:54.680 | And then I finally started working out and taking care of myself.

00:18:57.520 | And it had a huge impact on my self-esteem and my self-confidence.

00:19:00.840 | It had a huge impact on my health.

00:19:02.640 | Yeah, I saw it basically kill my father.

00:19:05.160 | It's given seven, 11 of my aunts and uncles diabetes.

00:19:08.000 | So I think that like all of this normalization is unhealthy

00:19:12.120 | because it actually is killing people.

00:19:14.480 | What I learned from the dieting is portion control in America

00:19:18.600 | is just out of control.

00:19:20.880 | It is the wrong portion sizes.

00:19:23.280 | So you see it here and you see it here when you eat here.

00:19:26.360 | Here's a little tuna.

00:19:27.680 | Here's a small pasta.

00:19:29.640 | You know, here's some cheese and some grapes for dessert. You're done.

00:19:32.600 | And so once I got my portion control, I was fine snacking also.

00:19:36.640 | But I just wish anybody who's suffering from it,

00:19:39.160 | you know, work with your doctors, work with nutritionists.

00:19:40.880 | You were overweight, too, for a long time.

00:19:42.640 | Were you?

00:19:43.400 | Freeberg? Yeah, I.

00:19:46.280 | What were you overweight from?

00:19:47.640 | I grew up not eating well.

00:19:49.520 | I was overweight in college.

00:19:51.320 | Right in the microphone.

00:19:52.000 | College is when I really started to get exercise actively.

00:19:55.720 | And because it was never part of my upbringing as a kid was like, eat well,

00:19:59.600 | get exercise.

00:20:00.920 | I was very much self-taught.

00:20:02.480 | I learned how to cook and learned a lot about nutrition on my own.

00:20:05.560 | And, you know, look, I took action on my own in my early 20s.

00:20:10.920 | So but yeah, look, I mean, it's so easy to not know where you find yourself

00:20:14.760 | and then you find yourself in this place.

00:20:16.440 | And I do agree that being cognizant of

00:20:18.600 | where you are and addressing it in an open way, in an active way,

00:20:23.240 | is the only path I mean, it's just every every cycle we come around

00:20:26.760 | with some new easy solution.

00:20:29.240 | You guys remember the what was it?

00:20:31.520 | Then then then then then.

00:20:33.560 | Yeah, you gotta be careful that one. Yeah, that was.

00:20:35.440 | Yeah. And so, look, I mean, the data so far looks great with these GLP

00:20:39.880 | you know, with one's.

00:20:42.240 | These drugs seem to be very effective.

00:20:44.480 | There's some data now that shows as soon as you stop taking it,

00:20:46.720 | the average person on it gains the weight right back.

00:20:49.440 | No, that didn't happen for me.

00:20:50.560 | Increased muscle mass.

00:20:52.000 | Maybe not, but like, yeah, you know, across a large population,

00:20:54.960 | there's just data that's showing that there's never going to be an easy path.

00:20:58.080 | And it's a very difficult.

00:21:00.800 | It's a process.

00:21:01.720 | You know, the the thing I learned is if you just have like one Oreo a day

00:21:06.800 | or every other day, let's say that's 50 calories.

00:21:10.040 | You have one of those every other day.

00:21:11.320 | You're going to gain two pounds a year for 20 years.

00:21:13.000 | Now you're 40 pounds overweight.

00:21:14.280 | It happens very slowly.

00:21:15.480 | You add it and then you just have to be super disciplined

00:21:17.640 | and you can lose a half a pound or a pound a week and then it can come off.

00:21:20.920 | So I really think it should be a movement in the United States.

00:21:24.640 | So much of our downstream issues, diabetes, heart disease,

00:21:29.440 | cancer, et cetera, seem to be contributed by obesity.

00:21:32.440 | So I think for our entire for the entire country,

00:21:36.400 | I think if I ran for president, it would be what Govy for everybody.

00:21:41.400 | Everybody, anybody who wants it, there you go.

00:21:43.800 | Be forever is my platform.

00:21:45.160 | Single issue voters.

00:21:46.080 | There's a platform you can. Yeah, that's it.

00:21:47.800 | Single issue platform.

00:21:49.280 | All right. Get in shape.

00:21:50.760 | There's some news I think we could we could touch on.

00:21:53.600 | How you feeling?

00:21:54.640 | Yeah, playing the catch. Let's do this.

00:21:56.040 | So there was an article in Vice, I guess, that name check.

00:21:59.680 | The All In podcast has said young people, instead of wanting to become

00:22:03.840 | McKinsey consultants, now want to become members of the All In podcast

00:22:07.960 | and be venture capitalists.

00:22:09.040 | I did a little tweet storm that I thought.

00:22:11.360 | And I thought it'd be a great topic for us.

00:22:13.320 | I think for young people, going into venture early is not a good idea.

00:22:17.800 | I think generally speaking, 80 percent of the case cases.

00:22:21.920 | And I think starting your own company or joining a high growth company

00:22:26.520 | or maybe joining a well run large company

00:22:30.760 | or even joining a poorly run large company, you learn what not to do

00:22:34.720 | are all better things to do in your 20s.

00:22:37.440 | Learn be in the trenches.

00:22:39.760 | But I'm curious what you think, Sax, about this issue,

00:22:43.160 | because we came to venture and investing in our 40s, I believe.

00:22:47.440 | You know, both of us, angel investors and then both of us having fun.

00:22:50.200 | So what are you advising a young person who's listening to the podcast

00:22:53.360 | coming out of business school or whatever?

00:22:55.760 | Yeah, I agree with that.

00:22:57.080 | I think the main value prop that a VC has to offer a founder is advice.

00:23:03.040 | And if you've never walked in the founder's shoes before,

00:23:07.320 | if you've never founded a company or at least had a significant operating role,

00:23:10.400 | how are you in a position to offer them advice?

00:23:13.120 | Now, I think there was a period of time during the bull market

00:23:16.840 | where people stopped thinking that way, stopped thinking that advice was the model.

00:23:22.040 | VCs started competing on the basis of who could be the biggest cheerleader

00:23:25.800 | for the founder, who could offer the most sort of positive emotional support,

00:23:30.560 | largest valuation or the biggest valuation or least governance.

00:23:34.240 | The idea of being completely passive, not taking a board seat

00:23:37.240 | was actually sold to founders as a positive for them that like will invest

00:23:42.200 | and will just like stay completely out of the way.

00:23:45.360 | And all of those ideas sounded really good when the market was booming

00:23:49.920 | and everything was up and to the right.

00:23:51.280 | But now we're in a situation in which we're going through two years of intense turmoil

00:23:56.200 | and a lot of companies aren't going to make it.

00:23:59.080 | A lot of companies are restructuring.

00:24:01.280 | A lot of companies are going to take down rounds.

00:24:03.040 | And actually being able to tap your board for advice

00:24:06.000 | on how to get through a rough patch actually is pretty important.

00:24:10.040 | You realize now that like the uninvolved, passive investor,

00:24:14.640 | that was not a positive value prop.

00:24:17.320 | That was an excuse for not having a value prop.

00:24:19.920 | And I think at times like this, it's really important to have VCs

00:24:24.720 | who've been around the block, who saw the last downturn,

00:24:28.160 | who ideally could have warned you that it was coming.

00:24:31.200 | Like we did on this pod repeatedly for a year.

00:24:34.720 | And so, yeah, I think that we're now seeing the correction.

00:24:39.880 | And I firmly agree with your analysis that there are too many people

00:24:44.200 | who join the ranks of VC who fundamentally didn't have a value prop.

00:24:47.240 | And that's why I mean, in our firm, we require that everyone

00:24:49.800 | who joins the investment team have operating experience and ideally founder

00:24:52.840 | experience, because that is ultimately what you're going to offer founders.

00:24:57.400 | Chamath was too much of this people larping live action role playing VC

00:25:02.760 | with just absolutely no idea how this works.

00:25:06.520 | And now what happens to those, you know, actor VCs

00:25:11.200 | who really are faced with portfolios that are upside down

00:25:15.400 | and they really have no idea how to weather a storm?

00:25:18.160 | This has been a hard 18 months. Let's be honest.

00:25:21.040 | Well, I think that it was a symptom of just the fact

00:25:23.800 | that there was a lot of free money in the system.

00:25:26.480 | And I don't know the outcome is going to be pretty basic, which is that

00:25:29.720 | they're going to lose money for their limited partners.

00:25:33.320 | And those limited partners, if they're not totally stupid,

00:25:36.320 | will never give these people money again.

00:25:38.480 | And these people will need to just find a new job.

00:25:40.920 | And I don't say that in a celebratory way.

00:25:42.800 | It's just a very practical ones and zeros monetary assessment of the facts.

00:25:47.160 | Look, I think that the weird thing that has happened

00:25:51.480 | is that it became like this kind of fun thing to be able to say you were doing.

00:25:55.480 | A lot of people used to moonlight and do it on the side.

00:25:57.840 | Then there were all these services that allow you to basically like

00:26:00.960 | abstract the job.

00:26:02.400 | But the only thing that I would just qualify your statement,

00:26:05.640 | because I think what you're saying is like 90 percent right.

00:26:09.320 | But I don't think that's where the craziest outcome returns have come from,

00:26:14.200 | because if you look at the two people that are really or the three people

00:26:17.120 | that are really generated, just gargantuan home run returns

00:26:20.200 | on a consistent basis, one of them, for example, like Mike Moritz, really

00:26:24.120 | didn't have those bona fides operationally.

00:26:27.880 | But I think that what Mike probably has, and I'm saying this, not knowing him

00:26:32.440 | is a preternatural like judge of psychology.

00:26:36.400 | I think I think he's an incredibly qualified people judger.

00:26:39.800 | And there are people like that.

00:26:41.160 | Now, he's an outlier in order to do that.

00:26:44.040 | But the rest of us have to kind of, to your point, do with what we have,

00:26:48.000 | which is like, here's our experience and our maturity.

00:26:50.880 | And, you know, we're telling you what we think.

00:26:52.720 | So I'm really excited, actually, for this wave to kind of crash on shore,

00:26:56.880 | because the number of founders that are going to get screwed over by folks

00:27:00.800 | that don't know what they're talking about, it's very high.

00:27:02.840 | Yeah. And that needs to come to an end as quickly as possible.

00:27:05.640 | Yeah, I don't think it's just like Moritz.

00:27:08.080 | I think that there's a class of successful venture capitalists.

00:27:12.360 | Bill Gurley is a great example.

00:27:14.040 | Like he was an analyst.

00:27:15.000 | Danny Reimer at Index Ventures was an investment analyst.

00:27:18.000 | Fred Wilson. Fred Wilson.

00:27:20.720 | Yeah. Lifetime VC.

00:27:22.040 | And Moritz, John Doerr.

00:27:24.000 | I mean, John Doerr had some Doerr work at Intel.

00:27:25.760 | He worked at Intel.

00:27:27.040 | But there is there are folks who have an incredible analytical capacity

00:27:31.040 | and that analytical capacity translates into incredible selection capability.

00:27:36.640 | That selection doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to necessarily

00:27:40.480 | be the best advisors.

00:27:41.840 | And I'm not saying that any of those folks are bad advisors,

00:27:44.000 | but there are some venture investors like Founders Fund is very vocal about this

00:27:48.000 | and very public about this, that their objective is not to be your partner

00:27:52.000 | in helping you make decisions and run your company and recruit people

00:27:54.920 | and all the other sort of rigmarole that many VCs go out and tout.

00:27:58.520 | They are there to pick the best founders

00:28:01.360 | and the best founders don't need the VC to be successful.

00:28:05.080 | And their job then is to have incredible selection capacity.

00:28:08.040 | So if they can select the best founders and get out of their way,

00:28:11.000 | they've made a lot of money and their returns are unbelievable.

00:28:14.360 | And then there are some VCs who are really incredible partners

00:28:18.120 | to their founders and their objective.

00:28:20.200 | Josh Koppelman at First Round built an entire firm around this practice,

00:28:23.520 | which is to partner very closely with founders and to build support

00:28:26.960 | and capabilities.

00:28:27.720 | Andresen Horowitz was built on the same sort of concept

00:28:30.080 | that they would that they would roll all of their fees into building,

00:28:33.280 | operating support and capacity to support founders and support companies.

00:28:36.680 | Both firms have obviously done well in their own right.

00:28:39.120 | And so I don't know if there's necessarily one breed that predicts success

00:28:43.160 | when it comes to successful venture capital.

00:28:45.320 | I will say from my own personal experience,

00:28:47.040 | I worked as an investment banker for my first two years out of undergrad.

00:28:49.760 | I, you know, worked. I had a science background.

00:28:52.720 | I worked in a short stint in private equity.

00:28:54.840 | I worked at Google. I did Corp Dev and M&A there.

00:28:57.080 | I started a company, ran it, sold it,

00:28:59.600 | did that with another business where I was on the board.

00:29:02.440 | So, you know, I've I've been on a couple of different places around the table

00:29:06.440 | that, you know, I think have given me the ability to to provide advice.

00:29:10.440 | I don't know if I necessarily have the same skill set that the team

00:29:13.920 | at Founders Fund and Mike Moritz and others might have at this astute,

00:29:19.080 | extraordinary ability to spot founders and bring them in.

00:29:22.320 | So I think everyone needs to kind of recognize what they do bring to the table,

00:29:24.760 | be very clear about what that is.

00:29:26.760 | And I think to your point,

00:29:28.080 | there has just been an incredible bull market over the last 15 years,

00:29:31.120 | since 2008. More money has.

00:29:33.120 | I heard an incredible statistic, by the way.

00:29:35.760 | I don't want to get it wrong.

00:29:36.720 | So maybe we should fact check me after this from someone at your wedding

00:29:40.080 | who I was talking to for a long time.

00:29:42.320 | And he was like, he was like, basically, the top one percent of VCs

00:29:46.960 | didn't beat what would have happened if you just bought the top five

00:29:50.840 | public tech companies and, you know, effectively did a rebalance

00:29:53.440 | over the past 15 years.

00:29:55.240 | The bull market and the the aggregation of value in technology

00:29:59.000 | has largely been 50/50 to public and private.

00:30:01.480 | So you could have just bought a few stocks and held on to them

00:30:04.080 | and beat all of the VCs over the last 15 years,

00:30:07.360 | even though a bunch of VCs have made good money in their IRR looks like 12 percent.

00:30:10.320 | But you have to beat the risk adjusted returns on venture.

00:30:13.440 | And this is not to throw shade at even all of those people

00:30:16.440 | that you mentioned are fucking terrible, right?

00:30:19.320 | Like you should not have invested in any of those, right?

00:30:22.120 | Because there's no way to turn it in any of those funds

00:30:24.560 | because you get a small allocation.

00:30:26.280 | One fund does well, three funds do crappy.

00:30:29.040 | Over the past 10 years or 15 years, I forgot the number.

00:30:31.920 | We've seen the public market cap of these top tech companies

00:30:36.160 | grow from one trillion to 10 trillion.

00:30:38.520 | That's a 10X.

00:30:40.240 | So all you had to do was buy those and you would have made 10X.

00:30:42.440 | And that works out to north of 25 percent IRR.

00:30:44.800 | Yeah. And there's very few VCs that have been able to be 25 percent IRR.

00:30:48.200 | They assume now he was telling me his model shows that over the next 10 years,

00:30:51.920 | it'll be roughly 70/30.

00:30:54.240 | So it'll be about 30 percent more accrued.

00:30:55.840 | And they think over the next 10 years, it's going to go from 10 trillion

00:30:58.240 | to 25 trillion, which is still a great return.

00:31:00.840 | Just to build on it shows how much of a hurdle there is in venture to be successful.

00:31:04.000 | I started the business in 2011.

00:31:05.680 | So now this is the 12th or 13th year.

00:31:07.840 | Just how hard this game is.

00:31:10.640 | I had about a 31, 32 percent gross IRR

00:31:13.920 | going into last year, and then my IRR fell off a cliff

00:31:18.480 | because I couldn't get into obviously there's like there's no money to distribute.

00:31:21.240 | Well, there's nothing to distribute.

00:31:22.200 | So my IRR start to decay.

00:31:24.480 | And then I had this really, really fucked up choice.

00:31:27.440 | I have to start selling stuff earlier than I would have otherwise

00:31:30.320 | to get the money back out. So to your point, right now, it takes courage.

00:31:33.600 | Then it's a really tough game over a long period of time.

00:31:37.800 | Yeah, a really tough game.

00:31:39.680 | I think there's also something going on, you know, in the United States

00:31:43.160 | and society where there are some idealized jobs.

00:31:45.280 | We talked about sacks, elites, surplus elites.

00:31:48.840 | And I want to dovetail this with what's happening in Hollywood.

00:31:51.560 | The writers strike and the actors strike.

00:31:54.360 | And I was looking at it.

00:31:55.680 | There's some unbelievable number of actors in sacks,

00:31:58.800 | some unbelievable number of writers.

00:32:00.400 | They all make just incredibly small amounts of money on average.

00:32:05.320 | And obviously there's some big fish who do well.

00:32:07.480 | But it does seem like

00:32:09.800 | there's too many people who want too many of these idealized jobs.

00:32:14.320 | And venture is one of those.

00:32:17.560 | And I just would like young people to understand.

00:32:19.440 | Also, be careful what you wish for.

00:32:21.560 | This job has seemed easy, just like it might seem easy for Tom Cruise

00:32:26.360 | or Christopher Nolan when you see them or Tarantino.

00:32:29.480 | What you don't see is all of the people who tried to become Tarantino,

00:32:33.000 | who tried to become, you know, Tom Cruise.

00:32:35.840 | And there are far too ten to 15 years before they realize that they're not.

00:32:39.520 | And they did not actually have the fundamental skills

00:32:42.520 | or the work ethic that is required to become Tarantino.

00:32:46.400 | I listen to Tarantino's podcast.

00:32:48.080 | He does a have you heard the Video Archives podcast yet?

00:32:50.560 | You have to get on this.

00:32:52.120 | It's him and his the co-writer of who did you write Pulp Fiction with?

00:32:56.040 | Roger Avery.

00:32:56.880 | Roger him and Roger Avery is my favorite podcast right now.

00:33:00.080 | They just talk about films.

00:33:01.760 | Their knowledge of films is so unbelievable.

00:33:06.400 | And the detail in which they talk about that is so crisp.

00:33:11.760 | They finish each other's sentences in the way with maybe you listen

00:33:14.960 | to this podcast, you know, we all go, Oh, John Doerr.

00:33:18.120 | Oh, no, he worked at Intel.

00:33:19.080 | Oh, this person. Yeah, Meritz. He was a journalist.

00:33:21.560 | We have a deep, deep understanding of this business

00:33:24.600 | that comes from 30 years within it or 20 years.

00:33:27.760 | And I think you have to I know it sounds corny, but you have to pay your dues.

00:33:32.200 | You have to put 60, 70 hours in a week to get that elite job.

00:33:36.360 | And the problem today, I feel, is and for people who are listening

00:33:40.360 | or young people coming out of schools, if you're not willing to sacrifice

00:33:43.920 | 60, 70, 80 hours a week for a decade or two,

00:33:46.760 | you're just not going to be successful in that.

00:33:49.360 | By the way, and young people push back on this.

00:33:51.800 | And I think the simplest way to reframe it is in the following.

00:33:55.440 | Do you really think, for example, let's pick NBA basketball.

00:34:00.520 | Do you think you would be really interested or find credible

00:34:04.440 | that the best player in the NBA only practiced three hours a week?

00:34:08.760 | Does that happen?

00:34:10.640 | Impossible.

00:34:10.960 | Or do you think they're practicing three hours in the morning

00:34:13.000 | and then also three hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives?

00:34:15.640 | The most incredible thing that I saw in the NBA was all of these men

00:34:19.200 | literally gave up their life to play that game, to perfect it.

00:34:23.440 | And that's true for anything.

00:34:26.360 | And so I don't understand how, whether if you're a filmmaker,

00:34:29.080 | whether you want to be an investor, whether you want to be an athlete,

00:34:31.520 | whether you want to be an actor, a surgeon.

00:34:33.600 | It's just like it's an immutable law of physics.

00:34:37.160 | So just get over it, which is you need to put in tens of thousands of hours.

00:34:42.160 | And if you cannot or won't,

00:34:44.400 | you should not expect the success and you should not complain.

00:34:48.560 | And also because it's not free.

00:34:50.760 | Yeah, these these guys agree with that or not.

00:34:52.920 | Yeah, look, I mean, LeBron 20.

00:34:54.840 | What was it, 2016, when they came back and won in game seven?

00:34:57.120 | Twenty sixteen.

00:34:58.000 | Yeah, I don't want to talk about scar tissue.

00:35:00.120 | Right. But the next day, they were, you know, his teammates go out and celebrate.

00:35:04.920 | You know, LeBron did on Instagram the next day, posted a photo at 7 a.m.

00:35:08.400 | of Ron was working out. Yeah, working out.

00:35:11.040 | But look, one thing I'll say, LeBron knows what his skill is

00:35:13.720 | and he knows what his game is.

00:35:15.360 | I think every individual needs to figure out what their skill is

00:35:19.200 | and what their game is and not to find glory

00:35:22.600 | in what others have found to be their skill and their game,

00:35:25.400 | that there is something that comes from mastering any craft

00:35:29.680 | that gives an individual joy and purpose in life.

00:35:32.080 | And you see this in basketball.

00:35:33.960 | You see it when these athletes really find what they love and they do it

00:35:36.560 | and they commit to it.

00:35:37.880 | And there are things that we each have realized we are good at.

00:35:40.320 | And there are things that we've all certainly realized we are not good at.

00:35:42.840 | And identifying that and mastering one's craft is the key to any person

00:35:46.640 | being successful and happy, I believe.

00:35:48.480 | I just just just assuming that there's a thing out there

00:35:51.520 | that everyone makes money.

00:35:52.320 | Distraction alert. All of our wives are about to go swimming.

00:35:55.080 | Oh, my God. They're so hot.

00:35:57.000 | My good God. Look at my wife.

00:35:58.800 | Whoo.

00:35:59.560 | Jesus.

00:36:01.120 | God almighty. I hit the jackpot.

00:36:03.280 | Beauty and the beast.

00:36:04.240 | You can relate to my

00:36:05.880 | what way I look at it.

00:36:08.600 | We were joking at breakfast today.

00:36:10.240 | We were like, my wife must have low self-esteem because she's married to me.

00:36:12.960 | Saksa, the best slide.

00:36:14.440 | He's like, if you Google Natalie, don't pay.

00:36:17.200 | You find this picture of her holding a tiger, a lion by the tail,

00:36:22.040 | which is a lot more exciting than holding a Sri Lankan by the schlong.

00:36:25.880 | Hey, oh, hey, oh,

00:36:30.400 | I was playing at the man for sacks when he did the roast last night.

00:36:33.400 | I was just like laughing guy every time he hit it.

00:36:36.680 | I just went back to the table.

00:36:37.960 | You didn't get help me off the cliff.

00:36:39.600 | I was waiting for that.

00:36:40.400 | More help. Help me all the way off the cliff.

00:36:42.240 | I mean, I think he knows how you know what happened.

00:36:45.360 | Kat told me what happened.

00:36:46.680 | So the back story is Phil Hamuth is a narcissist.

00:36:49.320 | And if you know Phil Hamuth, you know that. Yeah, that's implied.

00:36:53.080 | And he just cannot give a speech.

00:36:54.800 | And so, best friend, we all he's not my best friend.

00:36:57.000 | Spike, that is going to be really upset.

00:37:00.800 | But he's he he gives horrible speeches.

00:37:03.200 | He you and he are best friends.

00:37:04.680 | Like every every speech.

00:37:06.720 | Phil, every speech he gives at every event, it's all about himself.

00:37:09.960 | It's all about himself.

00:37:10.680 | That's why we say seven seconds to fail.

00:37:12.520 | But it's incredible because it could be goes off the road.

00:37:14.480 | It could be a wedding or bar mitzvah.

00:37:16.000 | A funeral. It doesn't matter.

00:37:17.680 | But in our chat.

00:37:18.720 | So when when Jamal said, OK, Phil's going to give a speech,

00:37:21.240 | Phil's like, of course, I'm going to give a speech.

00:37:23.840 | Every but I give is amazing.

00:37:26.320 | I tell him every time I bring $70 million.

00:37:28.680 | Then he goes, the last event I gave a speech.

00:37:32.880 | It brought the house down.

00:37:34.040 | Everyone was laughing.

00:37:36.080 | I killed it.

00:37:37.280 | It was Doyle Brunson's funeral.

00:37:39.040 | Oh, my God. No, dude.

00:37:41.120 | What? What? You killed it at a funeral.

00:37:43.600 | So I asked I asked how you to do to do this toast.

00:37:47.360 | And I was like, OK, well, we'll do four of them.

00:37:49.400 | But I thought if we start with how it'll just be so bad.

00:37:52.120 | Yeah. You bought him out early.

00:37:53.360 | Yeah. You bought him out early.

00:37:54.360 | And the rest of you guys set the bar.

00:37:56.680 | Yeah. But Saks crushed it.

00:37:58.720 | Saks nailed it. Saks crushed it.

00:38:02.560 | Deep State crushed it. Deep State crushed it.

00:38:05.960 | I think we're all still amazed that made up the stairs.

00:38:08.520 | You know, it was it was all right.

00:38:10.360 | I was 400 steps to that.

00:38:12.120 | Yeah, it looks good.

00:38:14.120 | He wasn't even out of breath.

00:38:15.280 | It was pretty impressive.

00:38:16.440 | Yeah. This has been a great episode of the Olin pod.

00:38:18.480 | Did anybody see Oppenheimer yet?

00:38:19.840 | I'm so excited.

00:38:21.000 | I don't see it.

00:38:21.760 | It's going to be a Barbenheimer double feature.

00:38:23.960 | Barbenheimer.

00:38:25.160 | In honor of the Barbenheimer wedding.

00:38:26.560 | Yeah, I'm not. I'm not Barbenheimer-ing it.

00:38:28.600 | I'm good. I've seen it in IMAX.

00:38:31.280 | I think Nolan's like so about 70 millimeter prints.

00:38:34.680 | He's like, you have to watch it.

00:38:35.600 | Do you know the Metreon?

00:38:37.520 | In the city.

00:38:38.120 | Is it? So we should just rent the theater and invite some fans.

00:38:40.520 | Or just go. Yeah, I mean, we should do that.

00:38:42.000 | No, we should rent it. Let's rent it.

00:38:43.560 | This week. I've rented it.

00:38:44.800 | It's I think it's sold out until like six.

00:38:46.160 | Very limited time. Oh, the theater is.

00:38:47.880 | We just have to call them and say, hey, can we rent the thing?

00:38:50.480 | They'll do a show. Here's 20 dimes.

00:38:51.920 | I once went to a showing of Interstellar there.

00:38:55.560 | And Christopher Nolan came and spoke and got to meet him and speak to him afterwards.

00:38:59.360 | He's a very soft spoken guy and he's not very sociable.

00:39:02.120 | He doesn't, you know, sort of like Saks.

00:39:03.760 | He doesn't want to make eye contact and actually talk with you.

00:39:05.960 | But, you know, we challenged him.

00:39:07.240 | Are you making fun of people with Asperger's?

00:39:10.320 | But he was great. I mean, I know.

00:39:11.640 | Pot, it's kettle calling.

00:39:14.840 | I will say he's what?

00:39:19.800 | Top three filmmakers of our time. Top four.

00:39:22.120 | There is for me, it's Ridley Scott, Tarantino, Nolan.

00:39:26.720 | There's a very funny.

00:39:28.160 | Where's your list, Saks, right now?

00:39:30.200 | You got to put Scorsese on that list. Oh, right. Of course.

00:39:32.280 | P.T. Anderson. No, no.

00:39:35.040 | P.T. Anderson. Dennis Villanueva.

00:39:37.320 | Hit or miss. Woody Allen.

00:39:39.360 | Can we mention that name?

00:39:40.440 | I mean, I can't say that bleep.

00:39:43.000 | It's hard to watch now. It's hard to watch.

00:39:44.800 | The whole Sunni thing makes it too hard.

00:39:46.720 | I like.

00:39:47.400 | No, Nick, Nick, bleep those out.

00:39:54.720 | There's a very funny moment on the the first the first dinner.

00:39:59.040 | Yeah. You know, we did this great thing.

00:40:01.320 | You can make people the names when sat down.

00:40:04.040 | Everybody's like, and I was waiting for David to sit. Yeah.

00:40:08.640 | And he just keep talking and talking, talking and talking.

00:40:13.000 | And finally, not when you like sit the fuck down right now

00:40:16.400 | and had to get this fucking thing going.

00:40:18.280 | So who do you got? You got Scorsese, of course.

00:40:20.160 | Yeah. I mean, you're talking about like currently alive filmmakers.

00:40:23.120 | I think that active filmmakers, unless you mentioned is pretty good.

00:40:25.800 | I have to think about it for missing anybody.

00:40:29.120 | Yeah. Really, Scott's up there for you.

00:40:31.080 | Yeah. Yeah. Really, Scott. Yeah.

00:40:33.200 | I mean, he's still making Christopher Nolan is pretty excellent.

00:40:35.280 | He's very productive, too.

00:40:36.600 | That's the thing about every two years.

00:40:38.360 | Michael Bay versatility.

00:40:39.800 | Michael Bay. I don't know if really Scott's been number one, but

00:40:42.800 | I met Michael Bay in Costa Rica.

00:40:45.680 | Can you get that beginning of the story?

00:40:49.960 | That's all I got. Can you did you ask for the thirty dollars back?

00:40:53.200 | For Transformers?

00:40:54.880 | No, I mean, I didn't particularly know who you like.

00:40:57.000 | Can I watch any of this?

00:40:58.480 | I cannot watch any of those. Yeah, it's a very nice guy.

00:41:00.680 | I don't know. Sure. He's great.

00:41:02.840 | So also, he's got Napoleon coming out.

00:41:05.640 | The trailer looks amazing. Amazing.

00:41:07.200 | Anything with walking Michael Bay is making.

00:41:09.320 | No, no, no, no, no, no.

00:41:10.320 | Really, Scott. Oh, really?

00:41:11.360 | Scott, walking Phoenix playing Napoleon.

00:41:13.440 | It's kind of interesting.

00:41:15.320 | I hate to go deep into the do you guys want to talk about Zert bad behavior

00:41:19.600 | or you want to talk about the resolution of this Hollywood stuff

00:41:22.040 | and what it means writ large?

00:41:23.800 | Well, the Hollywood stuff, I think it's fascinating.

00:41:25.560 | I tweeted about this a couple of weeks ago.

00:41:27.160 | My observations on this were twofold.

00:41:29.160 | One is that it's going to have the exact opposite effect that they want.

00:41:32.480 | If what they want is what the writers and the Actors Guild want

00:41:36.000 | is to show the owners of the studios how valuable they are.

00:41:41.720 | The problem is that this moves the owners

00:41:44.840 | and the studios one step closer into the hands of tools

00:41:49.200 | that will disintermediate the actors and the writers.

00:41:52.000 | They'll embrace that technology.

00:41:53.840 | They'll embrace the AI tools that you guys have talked about.

00:41:56.280 | You were showing something around even like yesterday or whatever.

00:41:59.520 | So like the point is, like, I don't see it as very effective.

00:42:02.200 | And then my second thought is like, I just think unions in general

00:42:06.600 | are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore

00:42:11.720 | versus the tax that the union members pay.

00:42:14.880 | And you can just see that in terms of like the number of people

00:42:18.680 | in unions are just kind of decaying pretty quickly.

00:42:20.960 | The wage gains are pretty de minimis.

00:42:23.000 | It's just not an effective mechanism of negotiation.

00:42:25.600 | Sax, the unions are a way for average

00:42:28.200 | performers to fight to get a little bit more.

00:42:31.880 | But it's the antithesis of having a meritocracy

00:42:36.160 | and people fighting for their best possible pay.

00:42:39.280 | And so the conundrum I have is I'm seeing all these Marvel actors,

00:42:43.440 | superhero actors getting dropped off at the protests,

00:42:46.880 | and they're complaining about Bob Iger making 25 million

00:42:49.440 | when Tom Cruise or, you know, Robert Downey Jr.

00:42:53.280 | Pick the person. I'm not singling anybody out.

00:42:55.720 | But those people who got to the top of the heap after 20, 30,

00:42:59.080 | 40 years in the business are getting paid 50 million a picture,

00:43:01.920 | 100 million a picture of back ends.

00:43:04.360 | And so what's your take on what's going on here?

00:43:07.720 | Because it seems I don't want to say hypocritical, but it feels like

00:43:12.680 | they're talking out of both sides of their mouth.

00:43:14.200 | They want to have an auction to the highest bidder

00:43:17.720 | for these incredibly talented writers, directors, producers, as it should be.

00:43:22.040 | But then they also want to fight for the average. Right.

00:43:25.280 | It's confusing to me.

00:43:26.280 | Some of the union demands, I think, are reasonable,

00:43:28.400 | and I understand why they want them.

00:43:29.680 | So, for example, I think they're arguing for more residuals

00:43:33.160 | for, like you said, the kind of lower level performers

00:43:36.600 | so that they can get health care.

00:43:38.200 | The average ones. Yeah.

00:43:39.280 | So I can understand that.

00:43:41.000 | At the same time, they're demanding that writers' rooms

00:43:43.960 | not use software, which they're already doing.

00:43:46.600 | Yeah. Which is just crazy because I is going to be incorporated

00:43:49.880 | into all software.

00:43:50.760 | So to not be able to use the latest features of whatever word or Google

00:43:56.160 | docs or whatever screenwriting software. Yes.

00:43:58.280 | That's like the king who ordered the tides to stop.

00:44:00.360 | You know, this is a march of technology. It's not going to work.

00:44:03.120 | So I think that's like really off base.

00:44:05.120 | So I can sympathize with some of the demands.

00:44:06.920 | Other ones, I think, are hard to see in terms of your point about the economics.

00:44:10.960 | I mean, look, the basic problem with Hollywood is

00:44:13.640 | it's a winner take all business.

00:44:15.040 | I mean, you've got a few actors who become big stars.

00:44:17.840 | This is true, actually, with all the creative industries

00:44:21.200 | is their power law businesses.

00:44:23.080 | You know, J.K.

00:44:23.920 | Rowling makes a billion dollars as an author.

00:44:27.160 | The 10,000 author or whatever makes almost fantasy.

00:44:32.200 | Yeah. First, it makes a living. Yeah, exactly.

00:44:34.320 | They're living in a month.

00:44:35.400 | Yeah. Can't even make a living.

00:44:36.320 | And the reason for that, by the way, is because there's a lot of people

00:44:39.000 | willing to do it for free.

00:44:40.560 | Humans are fundamentally creative.

00:44:42.040 | There's a lot of people willing to be actors for free or sure.

00:44:45.800 | On a social or writers or write or whatever creatively

00:44:48.560 | because they're willing to do their art for free podcasters. Right.

00:44:52.200 | And so the reality is the reason Hollywood doesn't have to pay

00:44:55.320 | these sort of the entry level actors very much is there's a lot of people

00:44:59.880 | willing to do that job.

00:45:00.640 | There's too many people.

00:45:01.400 | A lot of people want to do that.

00:45:02.480 | And it doesn't need to be in a structured production system anymore.

00:45:05.600 | I you guys saw the latest Disney earnings release.

00:45:08.880 | And Iger said, we are going to consider selling that

00:45:12.720 | geo and a bunch of other channels.

00:45:14.560 | There may actually be a spin off because content creation

00:45:17.920 | for that mid tier or that tail no longer makes it viable, profitable

00:45:22.600 | because there's so much content being generated by this very long tail

00:45:26.240 | that's accruing a lot of the eyeballs and a lot of the hours

00:45:28.880 | of consumers mindset and time.

00:45:30.520 | I think that there's a big just to connect that idea.

00:45:33.920 | So we were talking earlier about career choices.

00:45:36.360 | So first of all, it's I agree with what you guys said about the time

00:45:39.240 | that you have to make, but it's not really about time per se.

00:45:41.960 | It's about your obsession level.

00:45:44.480 | Can you be obsessed with something so that 60, 70 hours a week

00:45:48.200 | feels like nothing to you because you're so immersed, you're so obsessed with it.

00:45:51.640 | Right.

00:45:51.920 | The way that Tarantino and Avery are obsessed with classic films

00:45:54.880 | have the whole database in their head.

00:45:56.320 | So if you want to pursue one of these careers in a winner take all space

00:46:00.760 | like writing, like acting or whatever, you better just be completely upset.

00:46:04.720 | You got to be all in.

00:46:05.320 | Yeah, you got to be all in.

00:46:06.680 | I'd say furthermore, and be unique.

00:46:08.680 | Like what makes you novel?

00:46:10.000 | Yeah, I mean, even if you are all in, you still have to have luck and skill.

00:46:14.480 | And yeah, and furthermore, you have to know where the bar is.

00:46:16.720 | So I think a lot of people, this is one of the things I noticed

00:46:19.000 | when I was producing a movie is a lot of people look at like the worst actor

00:46:23.880 | or the worst screenwriter and say, I'm better than that person.

00:46:27.120 | So I'm going to make it.

00:46:28.600 | But your bar is not the worst person who's made it.

00:46:32.400 | Your bar is the best person who hasn't made it.

00:46:34.960 | That's the person you're really competing against.

00:46:36.240 | Next up.

00:46:37.000 | It's the next up.

00:46:37.760 | It's the person you're going on auditions and you're competing against

00:46:40.960 | someone who hasn't made it yet, but they're amazing.

00:46:42.960 | And you don't necessarily know where that bar is because it's much harder to see.

00:46:46.160 | Yeah, but that's where the bar really is.

00:46:48.000 | Right. Look, I think there's also a big disruption.

00:46:50.720 | That's really well said.

00:46:51.560 | Yeah, totally.

00:46:52.720 | And as we extend the long tail of consumer content creation

00:46:56.480 | into what is effectively now the infinite tail of AI generation,

00:47:01.000 | AI generated content creation, it is going to totally disrupt

00:47:04.400 | and change the game of media, of content.

00:47:07.400 | Generally speaking, we're getting to a point now where you can effectively tie

00:47:11.280 | together rendering engines with scripting, with scene definition,

00:47:15.640 | with directorial lines, all the stuff that goes into pre-production

00:47:19.880 | and production can be generated through through AI, through scripting

00:47:24.320 | and then tuned and tweaked by a human.

00:47:26.840 | But ultimately, it increases the scale like all technologies do.

00:47:30.160 | It increases leverage for humans.

00:47:31.880 | And we could see 100 times more films come out, each of which costs one

00:47:35.640 | one hundredth the cost.

00:47:36.840 | You know, one of the best production companies in L.A.

00:47:38.800 | is Blumhouse.

00:47:39.440 | You know, they make horror films for two million dollars.

00:47:41.640 | They make them for two million bucks and they make a bunch of them

00:47:44.240 | because they cost so little to make.

00:47:45.880 | And if any one of them hits, they make one hundred eighty million bucks

00:47:47.880 | or two hundred million bucks at the box office.

00:47:49.240 | It's a fantastic business.

00:47:50.280 | Genre films.

00:47:51.040 | It's very much a unique model in Hollywood, and it's really changed

00:47:54.160 | the game quite a bit.

00:47:55.280 | And I think we're going to see something similar emerge

00:47:57.200 | because of generative AI and the tooling.

00:47:59.080 | And then people start to question what is it called?

00:48:01.640 | What is it called?

00:48:02.640 | But look, one thing I do want to say, I do think that there's also a change

00:48:08.600 | in Hollywood that's going to be driven, as we talked about before,

00:48:11.440 | by the ability to generate personalized film, personalized content

00:48:15.040 | rather than one piece of content for everyone where you have to make blockbusters

00:48:19.120 | and everyone watches it.

00:48:20.400 | There is a question, however, of culture and culture is,

00:48:24.280 | you know, shared experience, stories and beliefs, shared experience,

00:48:28.680 | stories and beliefs can still be realized through personalized media,

00:48:32.160 | through personalized content generation.

00:48:34.800 | Think about, you know, an old narrative, an old tale that was told,

00:48:37.840 | you know, via people speaking to each other around a campfire.

00:48:41.000 | The ethics and the morals of the story are still there,

00:48:43.640 | but everyone tells it a little bit differently.

00:48:45.480 | I think that's what we may end up seeing Hollywood production

00:48:47.680 | or AI generated production.

00:48:49.120 | You guys see, which is everyone tweaks their content in their own personal way.

00:48:52.480 | They consume it in their own way.

00:48:53.960 | But the Hollywood studios, how much of a role do they ultimately end up playing?

00:48:57.160 | And does this start to go ten times more what we've seen in YouTube

00:49:00.920 | content consumption goes way up.

00:49:03.120 | And the number of folks that are contributing to it goes way up by ten or 100.

00:49:06.840 | I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and Hollywood

00:49:11.040 | have not yet grokked completely, which is they're not fighting each other.

00:49:15.440 | They're fighting TikTok, YouTube podcasts and people making their own content.

00:49:19.680 | That's they're fighting.

00:49:20.960 | You know, they know they're fighting Jimmy Donaldson.

00:49:23.160 | They're fighting Mr.

00:49:23.800 | B, Mr. B. They're fighting each other over the last scrap.

00:49:26.920 | I think the dark horse. Exactly.

00:49:28.720 | And I think they need to get inside.

00:49:30.040 | They're fighting the people that spend two hours a week

00:49:32.040 | listening to us rant on about stuff, right?

00:49:33.800 | Like they're fighting.

00:49:34.440 | Well, that's two less hours.

00:49:35.920 | That's what I'm saying.

00:49:36.560 | It's two less hours of broadcast TV.

00:49:38.800 | And then Mr.

00:49:39.480 | Beast, these kids watch his videos five times.

00:49:42.240 | They watch it.

00:49:42.800 | You know, by the way, he's probably the only person in recent memory

00:49:46.280 | that has rebuilt event based viewership

00:49:49.800 | because people know Saturday mornings at noon Eastern time.

00:49:53.960 | That's when these videos drop hundreds of millions of people.

00:49:56.760 | It's appointment television.

00:49:57.600 | It's appointment television.

00:49:59.040 | Now, back, by the way, when you hear, you know, the story about Mr.

00:50:02.520 | Beast, that's a guy that's been doing it since he was 13 years old studying.

00:50:06.080 | He's 24 years old.

00:50:07.240 | So that's 11 years where he's literally only lived and breathed.

00:50:10.760 | High energy.

00:50:11.720 | And in the lab, high energy iteration in the lab down to the very pixel.

00:50:16.040 | Right. Like when he, for example, like the cuts, remember,

00:50:18.720 | remember his cuts on his video?

00:50:20.000 | Remember he told us about like thumbnails.

00:50:21.800 | He has an entire PhD thesis that he's learned just on thumbnails.

00:50:25.160 | Yeah, right. And that's a level of commit.

00:50:26.800 | I think what Hollywood needs to do just to put it out there is

00:50:30.280 | that the leadership in Hollywood gets compensated on a corporate level.

00:50:35.000 | And then they come up with this, you know, pay and sometimes residual,

00:50:39.280 | sometimes not, and scraps for the talent.

00:50:41.720 | I would encourage them to read something like an autobiography by Kurosawa

00:50:46.840 | and study the Toho system where everybody was aligned inside the company.

00:50:51.520 | If I'm running Disney, I'm hiring the top two or 300 writers,

00:50:54.400 | putting them full time on staff, giving them equity

00:50:56.640 | and getting everybody rowing in the right direction.

00:50:58.840 | They do not have time to fuck around.

00:51:00.720 | They need to be in alignment, making great content.

00:51:03.240 | But the incentive structure matters.

00:51:05.520 | If Bob Iger is getting compensated by stock options, the actors,

00:51:10.440 | Robert Downey Jr., who's the guy, the incredible director of Swingers and

00:51:15.000 | Favreau, Favreau, I was talking to Favreau at an event and I was like,

00:51:19.640 | how much like equity in Disney did you get for doing Mandalorian

00:51:24.040 | and like launching Disney Plus for them?

00:51:25.880 | And he's like, zero, zero.

00:51:27.280 | By the way, why do you know if you look back up one hundred million dollars?

00:51:31.040 | If you know, but if you look and this is what's crazy.

00:51:32.720 | If you look at the biggest content producers of that older generation,

00:51:35.720 | they locked up the equity.

00:51:37.400 | You know, Spielberg owns equity in the movies that he made.

00:51:39.880 | George Lucas owns equity in the movie.

00:51:41.560 | He owned part of the studios.

00:51:42.960 | The deal Christopher Nolan cut on on Oppenheimer.

00:51:46.200 | No, I think he gets 20 percent of the gross off the first dollar.

00:51:49.760 | That's absurd.

00:51:50.440 | Yeah. And he got a hundred million dollar budget and a hundred million

00:51:52.600 | marketing commit on the on the deal.

00:51:55.560 | A Joker was Todd Phillips.

00:51:58.680 | Well, there's a perfect example.

00:52:00.200 | I was talking to Todd Phillips, actually.

00:52:02.040 | I got to have dinner with him last summer. Great guy. Yeah.

00:52:03.720 | Yeah. Great guy.

00:52:04.880 | And he waived his fee on Joker to take a big chunk of the equity

00:52:10.160 | because Todd Phillips is very bad on the Hangover.

00:52:12.640 | And he owned the IP of the Hangover.

00:52:14.520 | He owned the sequels and Hangover one and two.

00:52:18.320 | Amazing Hangover three.

00:52:20.040 | And you can miss it.

00:52:21.080 | Yeah. But he made more.

00:52:22.560 | I think on Hangover three. Yeah.

00:52:24.280 | And he got all those guys, Galifianakis, et cetera.

00:52:26.880 | They got their biggest payday on number three. Right.

00:52:29.240 | You have to craft a deal. We have equity.

00:52:31.120 | The other crazy video, the studio was less bullish than he was on both Hangover

00:52:35.320 | and Joker, because they were both shows you how unusual movies.

00:52:38.320 | So they allowed him to take equity in exchange for giving back.

00:52:42.080 | They're like, you only want to spend 50 million on a superhero film.

00:52:45.040 | That's never going to work.

00:52:46.000 | And then he's like, yeah, it made a billion.

00:52:48.000 | Joker made a billion.

00:52:49.400 | Right. They thought it was too dark.

00:52:51.120 | Underestimating audiences, as always in Hollywood.

00:52:53.840 | I'll tell you a very funny poker story.

00:52:55.520 | Are you going to keep your Disney stock?

00:52:57.600 | Right now, I'm going to ride it out.

00:52:58.920 | I think their IP collection is amazing.

00:53:01.080 | I think there's a chance that, you know, depending on how the FTC winds up

00:53:06.000 | being run over the long term, that Disney could be selling pieces of that business.

00:53:11.400 | And I think that it could become an acquisition target itself at some point.

00:53:14.440 | You want to hear a Todd Phillips poker story?

00:53:16.800 | I play a part with him. Yeah, he's he's fun.

00:53:18.560 | Phillips is a very, very disciplined poker player.

00:53:21.840 | You know, he's got like a stop loss.

00:53:24.640 | He hits the stop loss. He's done.

00:53:26.440 | And he's very funny and jokes around, you know, bus balls, whatever.

00:53:30.880 | And there was a while where he would play in the big game in L.A. with us.

00:53:35.120 | And he didn't say much.

00:53:36.760 | He was very focused and tight is right.

00:53:38.840 | And then he did this deal and then Hangover three comes out.

00:53:41.640 | And all of a sudden, you know, he's got chirping chips.

00:53:45.360 | He's splashing the pot.

00:53:46.280 | I bust Phillips in a pot and he looks at me

00:53:49.960 | and he called me slumdog billionaire.

00:53:52.200 | And the guys at the table thought it was so funny

00:53:56.480 | because that movie Slumdog Millionaire had just come out.

00:53:58.800 | So then they all started calling me slummy.

00:54:01.440 | Slumdog, it took me a year for them to get.

00:54:05.440 | Stop calling me that. Yeah, pretty great.

00:54:07.240 | On the union thing, I'll tell you a story.

00:54:08.560 | So recently it was just announced that Anchor Steam shut down.

00:54:12.320 | Anchor Steam was this beer, this native beer in San Francisco

00:54:15.480 | that's been around forever.

00:54:16.680 | Japanese brewery bought them, right?

00:54:18.040 | It was bought by Sapporo several years ago.

00:54:20.240 | Anchor Steam shut down.

00:54:21.560 | Anchor Steam shut down. Yeah.

00:54:23.040 | I used to go there all the time for like work events.

00:54:24.880 | You do like an offsite there and go to the brewery.

00:54:27.040 | It's yeah, it was like one of the original.

00:54:28.600 | I don't know.

00:54:29.560 | Yeah, I kind of winning beer.

00:54:31.360 | I can't wait. Well, it's out of business now.

00:54:33.600 | And the reason is, well, it was losing money.

00:54:36.600 | And you want to know why is because three years ago,

00:54:39.120 | the workers all voted to unionize.

00:54:41.320 | There were only something like 60 workers, 62 workers.

00:54:44.280 | And three years ago, they vote to unionize and they voted themselves.

00:54:47.320 | Big pay increases. Yeah.

00:54:48.840 | And so I guess the poor had to go along with it.

00:54:50.720 | Three years later, it's like, yeah, shut the whole thing down.

00:54:53.400 | I think that's and that's and that's the thing is you got to be careful

00:54:56.720 | what you wish for. This is overplay.

00:54:58.040 | I really think the thing with unions that they get wrong

00:55:00.640 | is unions fight for exactly this, which is this short term

00:55:04.840 | increase in current compensation.

00:55:07.640 | And I think what unions do very poorly

00:55:10.440 | is actually understanding the long term equity that the employees

00:55:14.440 | and members of that union actually create.

00:55:16.520 | I tweeted this a few weeks ago as well.

00:55:18.200 | But the single biggest reason

00:55:21.320 | that motivated me when I sold my piece of the Warriors

00:55:25.520 | was obviously just a crazy increase in the valuation.

00:55:28.760 | Right. I bought it for, you know, three hundred, six, three hundred.

00:55:32.520 | And it was worth five point two billion at the time.

00:55:35.240 | But the second biggest reason was my huge fear

00:55:38.040 | was that I as an owner, I just wanted to cash in the chips

00:55:42.280 | because I think the most right thing to do for the union,

00:55:45.800 | like the NBA Players Association, is to fight for equity. Yeah.

00:55:49.880 | Like Michael Jordan single handedly has created

00:55:54.280 | 15 billion dollars of equity in the NBA.

00:55:57.480 | Yeah. How much has he captured?

00:55:59.240 | One or two billion, but not from the league.

00:56:01.440 | He captured it accidentally from shoes. Right.

00:56:04.680 | How much money is LeBron James actually created for the NBA?

00:56:07.360 | It's enormous. Yeah.

00:56:09.080 | How much is he? He made.

00:56:11.400 | They're not trying to get the right piece.

00:56:12.880 | They're not trying to get the right.

00:56:14.080 | Also, when the business doesn't do well, then the labor contracts

00:56:18.240 | become a source of huge inflexibility, huge inflexibility.

00:56:20.680 | You can't make the necessary business changes.

00:56:22.120 | So it's your point. The business gets shut down.

00:56:23.840 | So to your point, like when you when what happens now is there's

00:56:27.040 | these huge luxury taxes in professional sports.

00:56:29.600 | And so folks bloat the payroll.

00:56:32.360 | They try to get all these players.

00:56:33.600 | But if you don't win and get to the playoffs, you're not selling more merch.

00:56:36.920 | You're not getting incremental share of TV revenues.

00:56:40.320 | You're not getting ticket revenues.

00:56:42.480 | And all of a sudden you have these massive luxury taxes

00:56:45.040 | you have to pay and not enough revenue to pay for it.

00:56:47.320 | And so these teams all of a sudden now start to gush.

00:56:49.960 | Money have to make capital calls because these things that sound incredible

00:56:54.200 | up front start to become real weights on these businesses.

00:56:57.840 | The real thing, all unions in all industries, I would I would tell you all

00:57:01.160 | to do is figure out how to get the equity upside in the business

00:57:05.840 | in which your members are working in and are creating value.

00:57:09.280 | Right. And in exchange for that, have more forgiveness on the downside.

00:57:11.960 | So the business is actually persevering.

00:57:14.360 | Whether the storm is supposed to have to shut down.

00:57:16.520 | Exactly. Alignment, you know, align the incentives are just so critical.

00:57:20.160 | I was talking to the head of one of the giant publishers.

00:57:23.920 | I wouldn't say which one.

00:57:25.520 | Ibnus Business Insider.

00:57:27.000 | I don't know which one it was, but

00:57:29.640 | they were being unionized.

00:57:31.200 | And I said, wow, is this a disaster for your business?

00:57:33.600 | He said, Jake, greatest thing ever.

00:57:35.600 | I said, why?

00:57:36.440 | He's like, now when people come to us and they want to get paid more,

00:57:39.600 | we just take out the chart.

00:57:41.080 | How many years have you been here?

00:57:42.480 | Oh, five. OK, yeah.

00:57:43.840 | One, two, three, four, five, seventy two thousand.

00:57:45.880 | And there's a well, no, but I bring more pages or whatever.

00:57:48.360 | It's like, yeah, OK, a page view multiplier point one five.

00:57:51.720 | OK, so you're seventy eight.

00:57:53.520 | And just basically that's what happens at Business Insider.

00:57:56.440 | Yeah, but that's kind of who knows why.

00:57:58.520 | Why they're a clickbait business is what drives perverse incentives.

00:58:03.080 | And it's like, why not align it with what is the profitability of the business?

00:58:06.680 | What is the growth of the business?

00:58:08.480 | A bonus pool, a base level of pay.

00:58:10.280 | And if the unions are coming in,

00:58:11.880 | they are literally rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.

00:58:15.320 | And it's that simple.

00:58:17.000 | You if you both the beer industry and Hollywood are both shrinking industries.

00:58:22.240 | And so when you got unions demanding more, more, more of a shrinking pie,

00:58:25.800 | something's going to break.

00:58:26.840 | Now, look, just to be clear, I'm in favor of unions

00:58:29.240 | demanding things like better working conditions and health care

00:58:32.120 | and just like the basics. Yeah.

00:58:33.920 | But, you know, when they try to go for things like, I don't know, banning AI

00:58:38.520 | and weird proposals that distort the cost structure of the business

00:58:43.400 | to the point where it's just not feasible, it's not profitable.

00:58:45.800 | That doesn't work.

00:58:46.640 | Also, the question is, why call workers who can move so freely between jobs?

00:58:51.720 | Yeah, so elite.

00:58:54.040 | Why would any white collar worker who is learning and sharpening their blade

00:58:58.560 | and increasing their value year after year?

00:59:00.760 | Why would they even want to join a union?

00:59:03.200 | There was a podcast union that started in Spotify and Gimlet Media,

00:59:08.000 | all of this stuff.

00:59:08.680 | And one of the podcasts, I think it was reply all.

00:59:11.240 | They didn't want to join the union because they're like, well,

00:59:13.720 | we're overcompensated. We're a hit show.

00:59:16.040 | And then they were all claimed that they were.

00:59:18.560 | Look at what's happening in the schools.

00:59:19.760 | But can we steal now?

00:59:20.920 | You can't get rid of a bad teacher because they're in the union.

00:59:23.760 | So it's like a huge proceeding.

00:59:24.960 | So they put them in a building where the incompetent teachers

00:59:27.520 | can we have to be a steel man?

00:59:29.960 | The pro case of joining a union in 2023.

00:59:32.280 | I mean, if you could get how do you feel about benefits

00:59:35.920 | like some basic level of benefits?

00:59:38.680 | Freeberg.

00:59:39.400 | Look, I think that the pitch and Jake, this is why I asked you this

00:59:44.040 | a few episodes ago, you know, tell us your experience

00:59:46.920 | having grown up in a family that I think unions are pretty proliferate in these

00:59:50.880 | cops, firemen, cops, firemen.

00:59:53.520 | Yeah, I mean, if you are the pitch is you're you're part of a membership.

00:59:56.960 | You have a voice and that voice always is your advocate.

01:00:00.320 | And that that advocate looks out for benefits, comp, time off,

01:00:05.320 | whether or not and how you get fired, all the things that you feel

01:00:08.360 | you may be unfairly treated by management.

01:00:10.120 | There's nothing novel here.

01:00:11.280 | I don't know. It's a strong, appealing point.

01:00:13.360 | Yeah. So I don't know if that's the best steel man for it, because look,

01:00:16.840 | it's a competitive labor market if you have skills that companies want.

01:00:20.680 | So you should be able to negotiate for a lot of these things yourself.

01:00:23.360 | I think the steel man case for unions and the reason why they formed

01:00:26.120 | in the first place is because American industry was basically owned

01:00:30.160 | by an oligopoly. They were themselves monopolies.

01:00:32.840 | So if you have a monopoly of industries like U.S.

01:00:36.600 | Steel or Standard Oil, then there's not a competitive labor market.

01:00:41.120 | They just set the prices. They set the conditions.

01:00:43.040 | That's why the unions got started is you needed a basically monopoly

01:00:47.320 | of labor to face off against a monopoly of business.

01:00:50.320 | That's how it got started.

01:00:52.000 | And I think in those conditions, we're talking about the early 1900s.

01:00:56.040 | People were losing limbs in factories.

01:00:58.120 | Yeah, of course. It was very different working conditions.

01:01:00.200 | Different working conditions.

01:01:00.960 | But now you're talking about much more competitive industries.

01:01:04.160 | But look, yeah, there was a great deal of manual labor

01:01:06.800 | needed to get productivity out of businesses and enterprise.

01:01:09.640 | So, you know, so much of industry changed where things became automated,

01:01:13.680 | where there became specialization and differentiation amongst the workforce.

01:01:16.720 | And it wasn't everyone is just using their arms to do things.

01:01:20.440 | And, you know, this is obviously now measurable.

01:01:22.680 | And the idea that you can basically,

01:01:24.720 | you know, capture management or do a hostile takeover

01:01:27.240 | of the corporation or the equity, I think is effectively

01:01:30.520 | what's happened with a lot of these these these.

01:01:32.600 | And I'll be honest, knowing what I know about unions,

01:01:35.160 | if you were to do a deep dive into, you know, the police unions

01:01:39.880 | or the firefighter unions or the sanitation unions or the teacher unions

01:01:44.080 | and you look at their pensions and their overtime,

01:01:48.000 | you would see some pretty significant abuse that the unions have built up

01:01:52.320 | over years to where people can make three or four hundred thousand dollars a year.

01:01:56.080 | In the last two or three years, they goose that up

01:01:58.560 | because then they base their pension on the average of the last three years.

01:02:01.920 | And what basically happens is all the senior guys say, listen,

01:02:04.920 | all overtime goes to these three guys who are retiring in three years.

01:02:08.320 | And none of the junior guys can take any overtime.

01:02:10.720 | And when it's your turn, right, you get all that.

01:02:13.840 | And then we're going to goosh your pay.

01:02:15.560 | So what that does unreasonably is the pension calculation,

01:02:20.280 | the pay into the pension is based on some assumption of today.

01:02:23.120 | As that starts to happen, the pensions become underfunded

01:02:26.440 | because they no longer have enough capital to make all the disbursements

01:02:29.480 | that are supposed to happen.

01:02:30.560 | And there's a big argument now that there's probably over a trillion dollars

01:02:33.800 | of underfunded pension liabilities in the United States,

01:02:36.640 | many of which are based on the fact that these payout principles

01:02:40.400 | were defined by some negotiation or the union and their games.

01:02:43.440 | And there's a large difference between somebody writing a listicle

01:02:46.760 | or rewriting a Washington Post story, a business listicle, listicle, listicle.

01:02:52.640 | Yeah. Somebody rewriting a listicle in BuzzFeed or, you know,

01:02:56.680 | somebody rewriting a Wall Street Journal paywall story and business insider.

01:03:00.520 | So somebody running into a running into a burning building or, you know, right.

01:03:05.520 | Having a target on their back as a cop in San Francisco.

01:03:08.560 | These are very different jobs.

01:03:10.160 | And the white collar knowledge workers are lasting.

01:03:13.120 | What what's the average tenure right now?

01:03:15.440 | Thirty six months, less than 30 months.

01:03:17.480 | I mean, you're obviously moving from place to place.

01:03:20.800 | What's the point of the union?

01:03:22.080 | It's a competitive labor market.

01:03:23.480 | And to your point, it's true that in some cases

01:03:26.280 | the unions do get a better deal for their members.

01:03:29.200 | However, there is a deadweight loss for the union itself

01:03:32.160 | because the union is representing its own interests.

01:03:34.720 | One and a half percent.

01:03:36.400 | So they're taking something.

01:03:37.280 | They got to come to their skimming.

01:03:39.280 | They got to pay that Scorsese movie.

01:03:41.600 | Was it the Irishman? Yeah.

01:03:43.080 | You really get a taste of the corruption that was there was some skimming going on.

01:03:46.080 | Everybody gets a little scam all of a sudden, one and a half times.

01:03:48.720 | But then also the pension fund starts getting, you know,

01:03:51.120 | rolled into mob projects or whatever.

01:03:53.640 | I mean, that's like a while ago, but.

01:03:55.640 | Yeah, I there were some significant downsides.

01:03:58.600 | My view of it is we lived in a decade of surplus elites,

01:04:04.200 | you know, having these luxury jobs.

01:04:07.040 | And I'll put in the luxury jobs being a journalist, being a venture capitalist,

01:04:10.480 | you know, these elitist luxury jobs.

01:04:12.600 | And in some of them, they became so wildly overcompensated.

01:04:16.280 | I think they wanted to feel oppressed.

01:04:19.080 | They wanted to feel like they need a representation.

01:04:21.120 | And I think they were LARPing to use the term again, live action

01:04:24.400 | role playing that they were going to be in a union like they wanted.

01:04:27.400 | They're LARPing as being victims. Right.

01:04:29.280 | They wanted to like literally the business insider people

01:04:33.080 | were putting up pictures of Henry Blodgett and his.

01:04:35.520 | They were LARPing grievances. Yes.

01:04:37.240 | And they're on the street holding a picket sign up.

01:04:39.280 | And I'm like, what's the matter?

01:04:40.960 | Is your keyboard not ergonomic enough at home?

01:04:43.480 | You haven't been to an office in three fucking years.

01:04:46.160 | They didn't get the latest flavor of kind bars or whatever.

01:04:48.880 | Yeah, no, they didn't get the cherry, the cranberry, the kind bar.

01:04:52.080 | Q. You Q. You kind bars.

01:04:55.240 | I mean, like leave the unions for the people who are actually on the front lines.

01:04:59.160 | It's like, all right.

01:05:00.600 | So I think, well, we could wrap.

01:05:02.400 | Good. Should we wrap? It's probably wrap time.

01:05:04.520 | Would you want to do a quick science corner update?

01:05:06.520 | I got a lot of room temp superconductor.

01:05:09.160 | Yeah, there is a actually it's a very interesting.

01:05:12.680 | You may remember a few episodes ago.

01:05:14.960 | And if you if you don't remember, you kind of can go back and watch it

01:05:17.680 | where I talked a little bit about the effort to try and identify a material

01:05:22.400 | that can be superconducting at room temperature, which means no resistance.

01:05:25.440 | Electrons can flow through the material with no resistance.

01:05:28.680 | Perfect electricity transfer across distance and also enables the Meissner

01:05:33.120 | effect where magnetic waves can reflect off of the material,

01:05:36.040 | which can allow things like levitating trains,

01:05:38.400 | which is very low friction transportation.

01:05:40.440 | All these benefits of superconducting materials, quantum computing, etc.

01:05:44.120 | So yesterday, and I've gotten literally dozens of emails

01:05:47.760 | and notes about this in the last 12 hours.

01:05:50.240 | There was a paper published by a team in South Korea

01:05:53.560 | who seemed like a very legit team.

01:05:56.320 | There's no reason why they would kind of make a fraudulent claim

01:06:00.160 | that there is a material that they've identified and measured to show

01:06:03.880 | has superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure,

01:06:07.800 | where a lot of these efforts historically have been made at room temperature,

01:06:10.760 | but they use 200 times atmospheric pressure to compress it.

01:06:13.880 | And it turns out that this material that they're using is a lead appetite,

01:06:19.160 | which is a it's a hexagonal crystal that uses calcium phosphate and lead

01:06:24.520 | and that some of the calcium, the lead gets replaced with copper

01:06:28.280 | and the copper causes the hexagon, the crystal structure to compress

01:06:32.000 | a little bit that compressed crystal allows the electrons to flow through.

01:06:35.680 | This is their theoretical explanation of what's going on.

01:06:37.800 | It will be replicated.

01:06:39.360 | People will try and do what they are now claiming they did to demonstrate this.

01:06:43.160 | There was some condensed matter physics people that sent me an email and said

01:06:47.280 | they don't think that this is real.

01:06:48.480 | They have a great deal of skepticism.

01:06:50.040 | Let me but sorry, let me just say two things about this.

01:06:52.240 | You can read the paper.

01:06:54.360 | You can read the paper. It's on the Internet.

01:06:56.480 | The cameraman put his glasses on. He's sleeping behind here.

01:06:59.040 | He's just we're sleeping. Let me take let me say a few things.

01:07:01.360 | Firstly, I think it's unlikely that these guys are going to make a fraudulent.

01:07:05.520 | If they did make a fraudulent claim, it would be the end of their careers.

01:07:10.960 | Their reputation would be damaged. So that may happen.

01:07:13.000 | If they did not make a fraudulent president of Stanford,

01:07:15.600 | if they did not make a fraudulent claim and it is and it does turn out to be real,

01:07:19.240 | then I do think it'll end up being

01:07:23.360 | the the most important discovery in physics of this century.

01:07:28.720 | OK, so it's either a complete utter fraud.

01:07:31.640 | No, no, no. Or it changes the universe.

01:07:33.480 | I'm being serious. No, look, I know you guys are joking about it, but yeah,

01:07:37.120 | we talked about the importance of this material in technology.

01:07:39.920 | Yes, it's an everyday life.

01:07:41.160 | And I don't know. I want to build on top of what you're saying.

01:07:43.080 | The thing that you're saying,

01:07:44.640 | the more generalized concept is we have such a poor understanding

01:07:47.800 | of the periodic table, just broadly speaking of condensed matter, of physics.

01:07:52.440 | There's so much about physics and quantum mechanics.

01:07:54.320 | And just that are still we are just literally poking around, poking around,

01:07:58.160 | trying to figure out what's going on.

01:07:59.440 | And that's what led to this discovery. Suppose a discovery.

01:08:01.760 | I've made this analogy before.

01:08:03.000 | But if you take the periodic table

01:08:04.280 | and it actually kind of looks like the United States of America,

01:08:07.080 | we have like a really good sense of like the upper northwest

01:08:10.600 | and like the East Coast.

01:08:11.920 | And otherwise we don't know anything.

01:08:13.920 | And I think it was about two and a half years ago.

01:08:16.440 | At the beginning of the pandemic, there were these three guys

01:08:19.360 | and I that started with this idea of just building some machine learning

01:08:23.200 | to experiment in silica around different materials. Right.

01:08:27.120 | And can you guess physical properties?

01:08:29.920 | And if you think these properties are better at a certain thing,

01:08:32.560 | can we then go and actually make samples and figure it out?

01:08:34.640 | And we pointed it at batteries.

01:08:37.360 | And we said, let's just take the cheapest form of batteries, LFP, lithium.

01:08:41.960 | Right. That's used in the Model three.

01:08:43.800 | And let's make better LFP.

01:08:45.240 | And what we're finding is, holy shit, like we don't know anything.

01:08:48.840 | And there are these like really big breakthroughs,

01:08:51.120 | one which we'll probably announce in like the next few weeks

01:08:53.520 | because we just raised a bunch of money around this idea.

01:08:56.200 | But it's all just people experimenting better and smarter.

01:08:59.640 | And really what you find is that there just aren't enough of those people doing it.

01:09:03.600 | And so the cycle time is just too long.

01:09:05.640 | Well, and this is where I can actually have some.

01:09:08.200 | It's incredible gain. Transformational.

01:09:10.240 | As I get smarter, transform, you put in the inputs, you give it the data set.

01:09:15.320 | We don't know what it's going to come up with.

01:09:16.880 | And it could profoundly the better version of part of what

01:09:20.600 | increase our understanding of this.

01:09:22.320 | This Korean team did is they they had a separate paper that they published

01:09:25.360 | talking about the demonstration of using AI to try and be predictive

01:09:29.360 | around quantum mechanics, which is something that people have said.

01:09:32.080 | We can't really do quantum modeling until we get quantum computers.

01:09:35.200 | And so there has been this belief that once we get quantum computers,

01:09:39.400 | we'll be able to understand the physics of the quantum scale

01:09:43.600 | and be able to do modeling that will allow us to do more discovery.

01:09:46.080 | But we are still very much just poking around and theorizing.

01:09:49.760 | And every cycle, by the way, in superconductor research,

01:09:52.160 | there's a different theory on what causes superconductivity.

01:09:55.320 | And it shows how little we do actually.

01:09:57.520 | Yeah. So these guys basically when we were trying to build.

01:10:00.680 | So if you if you look at like a Tesla Model S or Model X,

01:10:03.720 | these are NMC or NCA batteries, right?

01:10:06.120 | Very, very, very energy rich, but also very expensive

01:10:09.560 | and very complicated batteries that won't scale to the average everyday car.

01:10:13.800 | And what was crazy in our attempt to take LFP, which is the cheap version

01:10:18.720 | and make it as keep the cheapness, but as energy dense as NMC and NCA,

01:10:23.840 | we ended up doping it with all kinds of random stuff

01:10:27.640 | that you would have never guessed in a million years.

01:10:30.800 | Given billions of dollars, you would you needed computers to go off

01:10:34.280 | and actually make these guesses.

01:10:36.000 | So this idea that we're going to find all this stuff at the periodic table

01:10:38.960 | bumbling around, I think, is such an interesting part of the physical sciences.

01:10:43.920 | And again, this will lead to infinite energy storage in batteries.

01:10:47.560 | Yeah, you can put electricity into a battery.

01:10:49.520 | If you had a superconducting battery and it would cycle forever,

01:10:52.760 | no resistance, you could just plug in and get the energy back out.

01:10:55.280 | So imagine infinite storage on batteries.

01:10:57.320 | You have to reinvent circuitry completely.

01:11:00.080 | So you can there are already superconducting circuits

01:11:03.640 | that are used in quantum computers and other high end applications.

01:11:06.480 | But because they're so expensive to cool and so expensive to operate,

01:11:10.400 | they're not ubiquitous.

01:11:11.120 | But the power of having them be ubiquitous would be extraordinary.

01:11:14.120 | Computing for discovery, for AI, for modeling.

01:11:17.160 | The applications of what we'll end up discovering because of the modeling,

01:11:20.320 | we can now do it in a more ubiquitous way is going to be incredible.

01:11:22.400 | These are very profound moments when they do.

01:11:24.800 | And if they do happen, we should be excited, optimistic,

01:11:28.720 | but obviously very, very cautious about where and when they happen.

01:11:32.960 | Yeah, I really love you.

01:11:34.440 | What an incredible.

01:11:35.480 | So thankful that you guys came and showed up.

01:11:37.960 | It really means a lot to me. Thank you. Fantastic.

01:11:39.960 | Yeah, incredible.

01:11:41.160 | I really love you guys.

01:11:42.200 | Thank you very, very much for that.

01:11:43.440 | All right. We'll see everybody at the all in summit.

01:11:46.480 | Oh, my gosh. Yum, yum.

01:11:48.280 | It's in like in this is like six weeks more. A little more.

01:11:51.440 | You have a new party plan.

01:11:52.640 | You have a new you have a new person to announce.

01:11:55.080 | I will announce it and then we'll take it out if it's not OK.

01:11:57.440 | But we did confirm Ray Dalio, so we'll add him to the speaker list.

01:12:00.440 | We've got a few other guests that we're not going to announce

01:12:02.600 | that will be last minute fun surprises for everyone.

01:12:04.800 | Some fun surprises at the end.

01:12:06.560 | Really excited to have Ray Dalio.

01:12:07.720 | Closing in on how the party's going for the summer.

01:12:10.200 | The parties we we have narrowed down to three themes

01:12:13.160 | we think are going to be a lot of fun opening night, Sunday night,

01:12:16.080 | the day before the event starts, September 10th.

01:12:18.240 | I think that is your location.

01:12:19.480 | Yeah, we are negotiating the final contracts with the locations.

01:12:22.840 | We've got about a dozen of them, and we're going to narrow it down

01:12:25.080 | to the three that give us the best flexibility.

01:12:27.440 | We'll have the floor plans, which is the last step.

01:12:31.160 | You know, you got like six weeks, right? Yeah, no, no.

01:12:33.560 | It's we have more than enough options now.

01:12:35.120 | So Sunday night, J-Cal's handling the parties, not me.

01:12:38.400 | I'm doing the parties.

01:12:39.200 | You want to hear a great all in summit story?

01:12:41.280 | Yeah, but let me just go through the three.

01:12:42.760 | Yeah, the three party themes.

01:12:43.840 | So opening night is going to be bestie royal.

01:12:46.600 | The best you love me at James Bond theme.

01:12:48.680 | So what is that? Tuxedo white tuxedos, white tuxedos.

01:12:51.440 | Or you could go as a Bond girl or you could go as Austin Powers.

01:12:54.560 | Anything in that theme casino games, but no black tuxedo.

01:12:57.600 | You can go black to see the white tuxedo.

01:12:59.280 | You could go Daniel Craig.

01:13:00.400 | You could go Sean Connery, Roger Moore.

01:13:02.120 | You pick you to go.

01:13:04.000 | You go whatever you like.

01:13:05.120 | The black tux. I've tried the white tux.

01:13:06.640 | It doesn't you can do it. Yeah, you go.

01:13:08.840 | For me, I look like a waiter.

01:13:10.640 | And so it'd be like I'd like the yacht club of San Francisco.

01:13:13.840 | And then Monday night we have a good word.

01:13:15.960 | So it's bucket hat.

01:13:17.320 | Monday night is going to be bestie club breakfast club.

01:13:20.440 | Big 80s. The location is incredible.

01:13:23.040 | I would say it, but not to be confused with Fight Club where J.

01:13:25.920 | Kell and I get in a ring.

01:13:26.960 | You're not a fight each other.

01:13:28.080 | Yeah, that wouldn't last very long.

01:13:29.920 | Best we worked everything out at the board meeting.

01:13:32.280 | Yeah. Do we work everything out between the two of you?

01:13:34.000 | Yeah, everything's good.

01:13:34.600 | Board meetings, right?

01:13:35.240 | We're in the USA.

01:13:35.880 | You were embracing afterwards.

01:13:37.120 | I saw the two of you.

01:13:38.520 | Of course we had to try to give him a hug.

01:13:40.440 | It was awkward.

01:13:41.640 | He didn't fully let me in.

01:13:43.040 | So it was like you ever see three PO trying to give Han Solo a hug?

01:13:46.240 | It does like this.

01:13:46.840 | Like, oh, there's a 472 to one chance that you're my bestie.

01:13:51.120 | Oh, and then the last night will be bestie runner,

01:13:54.880 | a Blade Runner send up a cyberpunk theme.

01:13:57.600 | Where are your best cyberpunk?

01:13:59.520 | Oh, you must have a good like punch up person for this kind of stuff.

01:14:02.200 | Like you have a person that he's got an art director.

01:14:04.560 | He's got somebody right.

01:14:05.520 | Stylish.

01:14:06.000 | Let's go to the costume department.

01:14:07.760 | Costume department in the in the mall.

01:14:10.040 | No, that's level two in the basement.

01:14:11.560 | Sub level two in the basement is the costumes.

01:14:13.480 | I is this how you haven't been to that level in your elevator.

01:14:16.280 | Yeah, you go down.

01:14:16.920 | Level two is costumes.

01:14:18.000 | The cost. Yeah. Level three is sets.

01:14:19.920 | OK, I'll tell you a quick story.

01:14:20.760 | All in some it.

01:14:21.400 | I'm walking in the streets of Milan.

01:14:23.280 | Me, Nat and we're walking just on Via Montenapolione in Milan.

01:14:29.840 | And I hear it.

01:14:32.560 | And I turn around.

01:14:33.360 | It's Damian Bertrand, the CEO of Loro Piana.

01:14:35.600 | And so he comes.

01:14:37.640 | We're so excited to be a part of the all in summit.

01:14:40.040 | And I'm like, oh, my God, this is it. I didn't tell you this. Oh.

01:14:42.480 | Oh, it's not happening.

01:14:44.440 | No, it is. I know they're cushioning every seat with.

01:14:47.760 | No, no, no, no. Don't ruin it.

01:14:49.720 | I'm not going to run. I don't run.

01:14:51.280 | But my team's been working really hard on it.

01:14:52.680 | Anyways, I saw Damian.

01:14:54.440 | They're excited. He's coming. Yes.

01:14:56.720 | He is. We'll see.

01:14:57.920 | Well, he's got a high end partner.

01:14:59.760 | It's going to have Moncler.

01:15:01.880 | We did. We you had every opportunity these last three days

01:15:06.040 | to do everything you needed to get a sponsor.

01:15:07.760 | All right. If anyone from Moncler is listening.

01:15:09.960 | What are you guys right there on the beach?

01:15:11.640 | He's on the beach.

01:15:12.360 | He's at the weather base.

01:15:13.680 | You were just sitting next to him.

01:15:15.160 | And the person you see the yacht right there, that's his boat.

01:15:17.800 | This is his restaurant.

01:15:19.400 | I guess this is his restaurant.

01:15:20.720 | Yeah, I can't. I can't.

01:15:21.760 | I'm sitting next to him.

01:15:23.840 | I can't do enough. I can't do any more than literally get on the dinghy.

01:15:27.080 | Go to his boat. Get off your phone.

01:15:28.800 | He's sitting right there to pay attention.

01:15:31.040 | Yeah. Get playing.

01:15:33.360 | Oh, my God.

01:15:33.760 | Never mind. We're going to please stop.

01:15:35.080 | I'm not going to walk you off.

01:15:36.160 | Playing chess. And you're like, oh, yeah, I know you know the funniest.

01:15:38.520 | I.

01:15:39.480 | Beep it out.

01:15:41.240 | Well, bleep it out.

01:15:42.160 | Here's what happens.

01:15:43.160 | The guy, Freeberg comes up, he's in a panic.

01:15:45.320 | Oh, we've got a problem, Jake.

01:15:47.000 | How the production has got a problem.

01:15:48.920 | They're going to kick us out of the restaurant.

01:15:49.960 | The guy goes, I don't think it's going to be a problem.

01:15:52.520 | I'm going to fix it.

01:15:53.520 | And freebirds, like, how are you going to fix this?

01:15:54.640 | Like, well, I own the restaurant.

01:15:56.840 | And so I'll ask them.

01:15:58.440 | We bought it to not to kick you out.

01:16:01.000 | And I'm not going to be a problem.

01:16:03.200 | Not going to be a problem.

01:16:04.360 | And and he sat beside

01:16:08.040 | for a whole day.

01:16:09.160 | Right. Who is on the board?

01:16:10.760 | And I said, David, she's on the board.

01:16:13.400 | So if you this is your moment, you sold out their hats.

01:16:16.280 | And this is David. Cut to David.

01:16:18.720 | We put the name. Hold on.

01:16:20.640 | Oh, oh, I hold on.

01:16:22.520 | I got a lot of stuff.

01:16:23.680 | Peter Thiel and I are in level four of my basement.

01:16:26.200 | I'm in a game of blitz with Peter Thiel.

01:16:28.760 | Hold on. Blitz.

01:16:30.600 | Playing blitz chess.

01:16:31.600 | My rating is six.

01:16:32.720 | I've got a terrible hangover. Let's get out of here.

01:16:34.280 | All right, everybody.

01:16:35.200 | Live from Portofino.

01:16:37.040 | Four hung over. Thank you, guys.

01:16:39.360 | Thank you, everybody.

01:16:40.160 | Thank you.

01:16:40.640 | We will see you next time on the All-In Podcast.

01:16:44.080 | Bye bye. Love you, besties.

01:16:45.040 | Crash Mom.

01:16:45.760 | I'm going all in.

01:16:47.760 | We'll let your winners ride.

01:16:49.760 | Rain Man, David Saks.

01:16:53.240 | I'm going all in.

01:16:55.240 | And it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

01:16:59.320 | Love you, besties.

01:17:00.320 | I'm queen of quinoa.

01:17:02.320 | I'm going all in.

01:17:04.320 | Let your winners ride.

01:17:06.320 | I'm going all in.

01:17:08.320 | Besties are gone.

01:17:10.320 | That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway.

01:17:13.320 | I'm going all in.

01:17:15.320 | Oh, man.

01:17:17.320 | My avatar will meet me at Blitz.

01:17:19.320 | We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless.

01:17:23.320 | It's like this sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

01:17:26.320 | Let your beat.

01:17:28.320 | Let your beat.

01:17:30.320 | Let your beat.

01:17:32.320 | We need to get merch.

01:17:33.320 | Besties are gone.

01:17:34.320 | I'm going all in.

01:17:41.320 | I'm going all in.

01:17:43.320 | [MUSIC PLAYING]

E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more

Chapters