E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more

00:00:00.000 | Freeberg, Freeberg. What's up?

00:00:02.000 | It seems like you have a piece of shit on the side of your mouth. Or is that a birthmark?

00:00:05.680 | It's a- Oh, no. That's a birthmark. Gotcha.

00:00:07.280 | Oh my god. Sorry. Sorry.

00:00:09.600 | Jesus.

00:00:10.720 | Did you record that?

00:00:12.080 | Yeah, absolutely.

00:00:13.200 | Jesus.

00:00:13.840 | Look at this guy. He takes his shirt off for one fucking selfie and now everybody

00:00:18.400 | who's fat and pale on the show, the other three of us, is gonna be ridiculed.

00:00:23.200 | I'm having steak tonight. S-T-E-A-K tonight.

00:00:26.480 | I'm lifting twice a week now. Come on, Sax. Come get some. Let's fucking go. Three, two-

00:00:32.240 | Let your winners ride.

00:00:35.040 | Rain Man, David Sax.

00:00:37.920 | I'm going all in.

00:00:40.960 | And instead-

00:00:41.600 | We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

00:00:44.800 | Love you, man.

00:00:45.360 | I'm the queen of quinoa.

00:00:46.960 | I'm going all in.

00:00:49.440 | Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the All In Podcast with me again,

00:00:54.960 | the dictator,

00:00:56.080 | Hemsworth.

00:00:56.480 | Myself, Chamath Pali, Hapatia.

00:00:58.720 | Rain Man, David Sax, definitely with us. Definitely a great driver.

00:01:02.720 | His dad lets him drive in the driveway.

00:01:04.320 | And of course, everybody's favorite, the queen of quinoa, the science conductor himself,

00:01:11.280 | David Freiburg.

00:01:13.920 | Queen. Queen.

00:01:14.960 | The queen.

00:01:15.760 | Queen. Queen.

00:01:16.400 | A lot of activity online. It's been a little bit of chaos since we all got together here.

00:01:21.200 | I guess we should talk about this Apple story with

00:01:26.080 | Antonio Garcia Martinez. You may have heard that he was hired by Apple to, I guess, run their ad

00:01:34.560 | efforts. And I have a little bit of information on kind of what he was going to do there in terms

00:01:39.920 | of ads, which is really interesting. But-

00:01:43.280 | Tell us. Tell us. Tell us. Tell us.

00:01:44.960 | Okay. Well, anyway, you know how we're basically-

00:01:48.080 | Start at the beginning and assume people don't know who Antonio Garcia Martinez is.

00:01:51.280 | Okay. So Antonio Garcia Martinez was a Facebook developer. He is,

00:01:55.920 | some really smart guy who uses a lot of big words and wrote a book called Chaos Monkeys,

00:02:01.040 | which is a great book, where he takes a very Jack Kerouac kind of, you know, a lot of prose.

00:02:09.760 | And he wrote this book about his time at Facebook.

00:02:13.120 | The problem is he said some things in the book that would be five years later problematic.

00:02:19.920 | At the time, they were actually considered problematic by some folks. And in the full

00:02:25.520 | quote, maybe less problematic, but he was essentially ousted because of the following

00:02:34.000 | problematic quote. The quote is, "Most women in the Bay Area are soft and weak, cosseted and naive

00:02:42.240 | despite their claims of worldliness and generally full of shit. They have their self-regarding

00:02:46.880 | entitlement, feminism, and ceaselessly vaunt their independence. But the reality is, come the epidemic,

00:02:55.120 | plague, or foreign invasion, they become precisely the sort of useless baggage you

00:02:59.040 | trade for a box of shotgun shells or a jerry can of diesel."

00:03:03.360 | And they shorten that quote to be that most women are soft and weak

00:03:08.640 | and full of shit. So in context, in this book, he was contrasting the Bay Area women he had

00:03:18.080 | dated with the mother of his kids, who he describes as strong and tall and tough and

00:03:24.240 | amazing. But still, the quotes a little gnarly and the quote out of, you know,

00:03:28.880 | when it's out of context becomes particularly gnarly. And of course,

00:03:32.400 | this led to a petition at Apple, which then led to him being fired,

00:03:38.560 | which now is going to lead to him probably getting a $10 million settlement. Of course, there's a lot

00:03:46.640 | of hypocrisy being brought up here, because Apple has allegedly been using or Apple supply chain has

00:03:54.080 | slave labor in it from the Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. And obviously, Apple gave Dr.

00:04:01.360 | Dre billions of dollars for beats by Dre and he has even more misogynistic series of lyrics and

00:04:14.960 | was also accused of physically assaulting I believe his wife and other people he dated.

00:04:21.920 | Who Dr. Dre?

00:04:23.040 | Dr. Dre. Yeah.

00:04:23.840 | Dr. Dre. So anyway, what do you think?

00:04:29.120 | Okay, there you go. Next story.

00:04:33.520 | No, I'm happy to jump into this. I think, Jason, I think you're you're you focus a little

00:04:38.800 | bit too much. And I saw your your pod with Zach Collius on this. A lot of good takes,

00:04:43.520 | but I think you're a little too focused on what AGM as I think it's easier to call him by his

00:04:48.160 | initials, what he did as opposed to what the employees at Apple did. And there's,

00:04:53.600 | at least four things that Apple did, or five things that Apple did wrong. I mean, number one,

00:04:59.440 | I think there was a very good reason not to hire this guy, which is that he wrote

00:05:03.120 | a best selling tell all book about the last big tech company he worked at. So why if you're a big

00:05:09.040 | tech company, why in the world would you hire him? So that was stupid decision number one,

00:05:13.360 | but they did decide to hire him. And once they hire him, they got to treat him like any other

00:05:16.880 | employee and give him a chance to show what he can do. And so that leads to mistake number two,

00:05:20.960 | which is these 2000 employees who signed this.

00:05:23.440 | Petition really distorted and took out of context that passage. And I know the passages cringe,

00:05:29.600 | okay? And gnarly and it could, you know, certainly appear sexist, but you have to put it in its

00:05:34.960 | context and the the larger con this is a work of literature. This is a best selling book. It's 150,000

00:05:42.080 | words. They're taking 150 words out of context. And the context was like you said, he's describing

00:05:47.840 | the mother of his children, the love of his life in as this sort of Linda Hamilton esque in Terminator,

00:05:53.280 | type figure or Charlize Theron in Mad Max. And this passage is not in there to describe all women.

00:06:01.200 | It's just basically a literary flourish to contrast the woman that he loves being such

00:06:08.080 | a badass compared to every other woman. And, you know, when Kara Swisher interviewed AGM five years

00:06:13.360 | ago, she brought this passage, she explained it and she said, yeah, okay, I get it. So, you know,

00:06:18.640 | it's certainly the case that people can understand the context,

00:06:23.120 | if they choose to, and they simply are not choosing to understand the context,

00:06:28.080 | which brings me to mistake number three, which is these 2000 employees

00:06:31.920 | lied in their petition by claiming that their safety is threatened by Apple hiring AGM.

00:06:39.120 | That is simply untrue. It's physically impossible in the era of Zoom when everyone's

00:06:44.000 | working from home, but this guy is not a threat to anyone's safety, but they use that claim.

00:06:49.520 | They make that claim because they know that if you accuse

00:06:52.960 | someone of threatening your safety, it will trigger the machinery of HR to remove that

00:06:57.920 | person from the workplace. This is the language of safetyism and it's a specific tactic to basically

00:07:04.320 | get somebody canceled and removed from the workplace. Okay. And then that leads to the,

00:07:09.200 | the, the next mistake, I think mistake number four, which is the bosses of the Apple caved

00:07:14.160 | into this pressure. They were total cowards. They never even gave AGM the chance to explain

00:07:19.120 | himself. They never asked him, what did you intend by this passage? What were you trying to

00:07:22.800 | do? And by the way, they knew about this book when they hired him.

00:07:25.600 | I was about to say it's even worse. They knew about the book they had vetted and they talked

00:07:29.520 | to many people as when a big time, when a big tech company hires somebody for a major position like

00:07:34.960 | this, they call all the references and all of this is uncovered and dealt with.

00:07:39.440 | Of course they knew about it. And then when the mob complains, they fire him summarily without

00:07:44.240 | subjecting the decision to proper HR processes. This is HR by mob rule. It's totally unacceptable.

00:07:49.680 | No company should be run this way. And then finally that brings us to number five,

00:07:52.640 | which is number five is that in explaining their decision and trying to justify their

00:07:57.280 | cowardice and giving it to the mob, they said that they fired him because of his behavior.

00:08:02.000 | AGM never had a chance to engage in any behavior. He barely started at the job. This wasn't because

00:08:06.880 | of his behavior. This is because of the book that he wrote five years ago. So what they're saying is

00:08:11.600 | that if you ever publish a written work at any time in your life, years and years ago,

00:08:17.680 | that that could somehow constitute present day behavior and that other people in the workplace

00:08:22.480 | can have a problem with that. This is not behavior. And this is why he's going to have a giant

00:08:27.760 | defamation suit and settlement because they are making him unemployable in the tech industry by

00:08:34.880 | claiming that he was fired for some sexist behavior. He was not.

00:08:39.360 | What do you think he'll get paid in a settlement?

00:08:41.120 | I put it at 10.

00:08:42.640 | 10 million?

00:08:44.080 | Well, I was just thinking he's a half million dollar a year employee

00:08:47.600 | to a million with his RSU. So let's just put it at a million unemployed for 10 to 20

00:08:52.320 | years because of this or the damages to his reputation.

00:08:54.960 | And present value that back. Yeah.

00:08:57.360 | So and yeah, so I think 10 million is the number.

00:08:59.360 | My curiosity in this was just did those 2000 employees feel the same way about Dr. Dre?

00:09:06.960 | Of course not.

00:09:08.320 | Or do they do they feel the same way about some of the movies that they sell in the iTunes store?

00:09:14.880 | Or do they feel the same way about some of the games that they enable?

00:09:22.160 | App Store?

00:09:23.360 | Or some of the subscriptions that are sold?

00:09:25.520 | Right?

00:09:27.760 | Do they care? Do they care that much about what's happening in their Chinese supply chain?

00:09:31.520 | I mean, I think it seems at least on the outside, the answer is no. But it would be interesting to

00:09:38.080 | get an explanation of that from the same HR people. I don't know whether the guy should

00:09:42.880 | have been fired or not. But I do think that you should have a predictable standard and every

00:09:47.200 | company is allowed to do what they want. If the standard at Apple is that we are going to hold you

00:09:52.000 | accountable for everything you've done in the past, irrespective of whether you disavowed it or

00:09:56.800 | not, so be it. That's their right. And I think that the employees of that company have a right

00:10:01.520 | to do that. I think they said if you start to arbitrarily enforce it, you go down this weird

00:10:07.200 | place, which is like, basically, I think what they're saying is, if it's good for business,

00:10:12.560 | we're going to ignore it. If it's not obvious that it's good for business, we'll act because

00:10:17.440 | it's a low cost way of keeping the masses. You know, that's the way it is. And so I think that's

00:10:21.840 | the way it is. And I think that's the way it is. And I think that's the way it is. And I think that's

00:10:24.640 | what's even scarier to the 2000 people. It's not that you know, maybe they should feel proud that

00:10:29.040 | they got their pound of flesh. But they really should figure out how they want to stand on all

00:10:34.000 | these other points because to cherry pick puts, puts the whole company in just a weird posture.

00:10:39.040 | That's that's not scalable. Freeberg. I'm less interested in the hypocrisy

00:10:45.600 | in the values debate, which is obvious. That's kind of the first order point with

00:10:51.680 | all this stuff. It's like, do the employees have the right values? Is there hypocrisy by management

00:10:55.920 | is there hypocrisy by the employees? What strikes me though, is a failure of leadership

00:11:02.320 | at these organizations. You know, you guys think back to Brian Armstrong's kind of purging of the

00:11:07.760 | woke mob and the political discourse that was happening at Coinbase a few months ago.

00:11:11.280 | He took a point of strong leadership to a new level. And I think it highlighted when the leader

00:11:18.240 | steps up and says, this is how we're going to operate. These are how we're going to make decisions

00:11:21.520 | and puts his foot down. People will leave and you evolve the culture. And I think it indicates to me

00:11:27.520 | that certain companies as they've gotten really big, and really successful, like Apple, and even

00:11:33.680 | Alphabet, and various other kind of large tech companies, the leaders no longer lead the employees

00:11:40.400 | lead the narrative on culture and the narrative on values. And, you know, it speaks to two things.

00:11:47.200 | One is that there perhaps aren't founder leaders

00:11:51.360 | running those organizations anymore, that there are managers, whose job is critically important,

00:11:55.760 | whose job is to keep the wheels on and keep the wheels from falling off. So they have more to lose.

00:12:00.080 | And they are constantly trying to protect the downside than they are trying to be aggressive

00:12:04.880 | about growing to the upside. And then I think it's just, you know, secondly, this kind of,

00:12:10.400 | you know, failure to kind of define what your values are from a leadership perspective,

00:12:17.680 | and the void gets filled by the employees, the void gets filled

00:12:21.200 | by the mob. And so while it's this one kind of, you know, debatable point today, and this one kind

00:12:25.840 | of hypocritical point today, it's really interesting to see that this isn't happening at other companies

00:12:31.120 | that are founder led. And if it is, the, you know, the culture gets reset.

00:12:35.040 | Steve Jobs would have handled this completely differently.

00:12:37.200 | Steve Jobs would not have let his employees tell him who or shouldn't be hired.

00:12:40.080 | No, he would have stopped and said, let's have a discussion about this.

00:12:41.600 | He would have had a really clear point of view about who we hire, why we hire them,

00:12:45.120 | and how we make decisions and not let the democratic kind of rule or the, you know,

00:12:51.040 | employee rule.

00:12:52.240 | It's not like all employees took a vote. How much of this Chamath has to do with

00:12:56.240 | the coddling of Silicon Valley employees for two decades vis-a-vis,

00:12:59.520 | you know, you get driven to school on your school bus, you sit on, you know, you get your lunch

00:13:05.280 | prepared for you, we do your dry cleaning, every Friday, you get to come and ask challenging

00:13:09.680 | questions to the leaders and this concept of like, you know, everybody has a voice at work as opposed

00:13:16.160 | to this is a company controlled by shareholders and or a founder and you work for it, and they

00:13:20.880 | were saying trade of services here, vis-a-vis what Toby had to say at Shopify, which is,

00:13:26.080 | this is not a family, this is a sports team, you are here to perform, we are here to perform for

00:13:31.200 | our customers the end.

00:13:32.560 | So the, in fact, if you if you had a chance, and maybe Nick, we can post it in the show notes, but

00:13:37.120 | the email that Toby Lutke wrote to Shopify employees was unbelievable. That to me is like,

00:13:43.920 | that's a tour de force. That should be basically like, that should be minted and sold as an NFT.

00:13:50.720 | What's an NFT? We forgot about those.

00:13:52.480 | And it was it was it was just an incredible email, Jason, to your point. And the way that that

00:13:56.960 | started, if I may be getting these facts wrong, but there was an emoji of a noose inside of a Slack

00:14:04.560 | channel. And then and then folks got quite upset with it. And so I think Toby's response was to

00:14:11.840 | basically shut down the whole channel and say, Hey, guys, you know, we're losing the script about

00:14:18.000 | why we're here.

00:14:18.640 | Yeah.

00:14:19.200 | Yeah.

00:14:19.680 | Yeah.

00:14:20.080 | Yeah.

00:14:20.560 | And, you know, I think Bryan Armstrong's essay was a version of that. The question is, why are

00:14:25.680 | we here? If I had to guess, I think it's because we've pumped so much money into Silicon Valley

00:14:30.400 | companies. They didn't know where to spend it. And so I actually think that what we've really

00:14:36.160 | done is over hired far too many people into many of these companies. And so they kind of are very

00:14:40.880 | smart people, sitting around twiddling their thumbs. And so obviously, they're just going to

00:14:45.440 | get distracted. Meaning, I remember like, you know, at Facebook,

00:14:50.400 | there was barely enough people to keep the lights on for a while. Then I remember by the time I was

00:14:55.920 | leaving, I was like, wow, there's way too many people here. A lot of them and most of them are

00:14:59.920 | all really, really smart. But it wasn't obvious to me what many of them did. And you know, people

00:15:05.280 | would look at me and then say, Oh, you know, that's a really arrogant thing to say. And that's

00:15:08.960 | not true. And everybody's valuable. I don't know. You know, if you look at Google, I've always

00:15:14.720 | thought like that company could probably run by 2000 people. But you know, there's 200,000 people.

00:15:19.920 | So the whole company is probably run by 2000 people. But you know, there's 200,000 people. So the

00:15:20.240 | 198 other 1000 of them need to find something to do. It's probably the same at Apple, it's probably

00:15:25.680 | the same at all these big tech companies. And that's the leverage that you get from technology,

00:15:29.600 | it's naturally, massively deflationary. So but if you keep pumping billions and billions and billions

00:15:36.480 | of dollars into these companies, where the app experience is written by 50 or 100 critical people

00:15:42.640 | or managed by 500 or 1000 critical people. This is the natural byproduct, I think, which all of that,

00:15:50.080 | which is the way freeberg said organizations want to grow, right? Like, how many organizations say,

00:15:54.320 | you know, we should be smaller, we don't know, you're saying something really important.

00:15:58.320 | Not enough founders and boards understand the difference between growing a business and growing

00:16:04.160 | an org. Those are two totally different things. And the reason is because we've lost sight of

00:16:09.600 | very simple financial metrics in Silicon Valley, meaning if you go to any other industry,

00:16:14.400 | where there is a cost of capital, people understand what return on invested capital means,

00:16:19.920 | they know how to measure it. Yeah, they know what operating leverage means. They know what margin

00:16:24.000 | expansion means, we only have valuation. And they seek that out. Here, we think about exactly as you

00:16:29.760 | said, valuation. And so this idea that having 100 people do the work and see margins lift is

00:16:36.320 | antithetical to the Silicon Valley culture. It's Oh, as margins go up, let's just keep running the

00:16:40.720 | same profitable business, but instead have a 500 people, 1000. What do you think you're

00:16:44.400 | an operations machine, people would say, on a COO basis, you're one of the top three to

00:16:49.760 | five in the history of the valley? What do you say COO man?

00:16:52.560 | Yeah, I mean, look, Chamath is right that in a company that's well run and well led,

00:16:59.040 | where people, people don't have time on their hands to engage in these shenanigans.

00:17:03.120 | So yeah, I mean, I think I think that's absolutely right. I think companies

00:17:08.080 | startups are increasingly have to choose whether they want to be Apple or whether they want to be

00:17:13.520 | Coinbase or Shopify for that matter. And just this this week at Apple,

00:17:19.600 | there's a new petition circling now there's a petition called by 1000 employees calling for

00:17:24.720 | Tim Cook to denounce the Israelis and endorse the Palestinian side of the conflict. Yeah.

00:17:30.080 | How's that gonna work?

00:17:31.440 | Well, of course,

00:17:32.640 | Does he have a position on abortion? Is there an abortion position at Apple yet?

00:17:36.080 | Well, but now that they've given into the woke mob, there's no reason for the mob to stop,

00:17:40.640 | they're gonna be circulating a petition every week. And that's kind of the point is,

00:17:44.080 | so and actually AGM himself had a really good quote about this. He did a great interview with

00:17:49.440 | Matt Taibbi. And he laid out the choice that companies face like this. He said it's interjected

00:17:55.440 | this is Antonio Garcia Martinez saying is interjecting the whole fucking Twitter cesspool

00:18:00.800 | with all the dog piles and all the performance of signaling and all that crap into a corporate

00:18:05.360 | setting and replicating those dynamics and calling it work. That's basically what happened is what's

00:18:10.960 | happening is you're these employees are performing Twitter at work on on Slack, and they're pretending

00:18:19.040 | Yes. like it's working. And they're pretending like it's working. And they're pretending like it's

00:18:19.280 | really work and it's not. And I think you know, founders are going to have to make a decision. Do

00:18:24.400 | you stand up and take a Brian Armstrong like position or a Toby position? Or do you eventually

00:18:30.640 | degenerate into some sort of or a base camp by the way, or even base camp the most woke virtual

00:18:36.720 | signaling founders on Twitter decided to take that's right the most libertarian or

00:18:43.280 | Spartan approach, you know, stoic approach of Toby to give you Toby's quote.

00:18:49.120 | Well, base camp just to finish the base camp thought so to base camp

00:18:52.320 | try to accommodate this sort of like woke mentality. And what they found is that they

00:18:57.760 | got pushed so far, it became so distracting, they eventually had to move to the Armstrong position.

00:19:03.360 | And that's kind of my point is once you get everybody's gonna move to that.

00:19:06.480 | Yeah, that's my point. I mean, and if you don't believe what I what I said was like, listen,

00:19:10.720 | if you believe that organization that allows political speech and this kind of stuff as a

00:19:17.520 | primary function inside the company, you're going to be a little bit more likely to get a job.

00:19:18.960 | Right? But if you're a big company, well, then go build a competitor to base camp and show that that

00:19:22.480 | system works better. Here's Toby's quote. To help you make this more clear to team members,

00:19:26.880 | here are some pointers about what Shopify is not Shopify, like any for profit company is not a

00:19:32.800 | family. The very idea is preposterous, you are born into a family, you never choose it,

00:19:38.000 | and they can unfamily you, it should be massively obvious that Shopify is not a family. But I see

00:19:43.440 | people even leaders casually use the term like shoppy fam, which will cause the members of our

00:19:48.800 | teams, especially junior ones that have never worked anywhere else. To get the wrong impression,

00:19:53.600 | the dangers of family thinking in quotes, or that it becomes incredibly hard to let poor performers

00:19:58.640 | go. Shopify is a team italicized, not a family, we literally only want the best people in the world.

00:20:05.600 | The reason why you joined Shopify is because I hope all other people you met during the

00:20:10.880 | interview process were really smart, caring and committed. This is magic,

00:20:14.320 | and it creates a virtuous magnetism on talented people because very few people in

00:20:18.640 | the world have this in themselves. People who don't should not be part of this team.

00:20:23.360 | I mean, when I was, when I was a strong, when I was a Facebook, we used to convene the senior team.

00:20:29.920 | And, you know, I was like, I want I really want to fire the bottom five or 10% of the company

00:20:35.520 | of you and we would force stack rank and we did it for about three or four years. And then

00:20:39.120 | the excuse was, it's too big. And there are too many people and the roles are too diverse,

00:20:43.280 | and you can't rank. I actually don't believe that even to this day, I think it's pretty obvious,

00:20:48.480 | who the real 1000x kind of employee contributors are. And by the way, they exist in every function,

00:20:53.760 | there's 1000x salespeople, there's 1000x, you know, product managers, there's, there's the

00:20:58.320 | 1000x people that work in facilities, they exist in every job function. And companies,

00:21:03.760 | I don't think do a good enough job of figuring out who they are. And so instead, what happens

00:21:08.240 | is people that are not even 100x or not even a 10x are really more like a one or 1.1x can

00:21:13.760 | basically hide in all of that noise. And I think that if you could separate that,

00:21:18.320 | you know, you can separate HR into two things. But there's really three things. One is like

00:21:23.360 | benefits, which is critical. The second is actually like safety, and the ability to

00:21:29.440 | whistleblow if there's something really nefarious or bad that's happened. And then the third that's

00:21:34.400 | really valuable, I think is organizational design, right? How do you put people in good jobs? And how

00:21:38.800 | do you allow them to have a huge amount of autonomy to run and build a career. But all

00:21:43.440 | of this other policing stuff, to me just seems like it coddles

00:21:48.160 | lowest 25% I don't know if that and this is my intuition the to

00:21:51.220 | the lowest 25% performers of the course.

00:21:53.800 | Of course it does. And just to close this story up and wrap to

00:21:57.140 | our next in tone a GM announced that he is going to Take a year

00:22:01.540 | wait for it to write for sub stack. So he is going to get

00:22:05.680 | paid $10 million I would guesstimate in a settlement by

00:22:10.600 | Apple, he's going to get a half million dollar I'll take you

00:22:13.220 | over. I'll take you over. I said such a good line. We can bet on

00:22:19.920 | it. We can bet on it. I'll take the over the line of 10. Anybody

00:22:22.940 | want the under? I'll take you take the

00:22:25.640 | well go give it a give a different bet. Not then I'll

00:22:28.980 | figure out a different line. You could set a different line set a

00:22:31.160 | different line. I think Ted's a good line.

00:22:33.080 | Because you gotta think if they offer him seven or eight million.

00:22:37.040 | I mean, it's gonna be something like that. I don't know what the

00:22:40.520 | big what the number is. But

00:22:42.080 | we'll never know.

00:22:42.900 | I'll

00:22:43.120 | I'll make a line. 15.6. Take the under I'll take the under

00:22:47.060 | Wow. Yeah, 15 is way too David. David's quite

00:22:51.200 | sad. I'd say under 15. Yeah, that's not a good line. Good.

00:22:54.640 | 11.5 is a good line. Okay, let me do 11.5. What do you take

00:23:00.220 | tomorrow can afford the book against all three of us. Okay,

00:23:02.240 | 11.5. Tramont takes the over 11.5. Freeberg sacks. Yeah, I

00:23:06.860 | don't know under.

00:23:07.660 | Let's tell you why if you look at the last four year

00:23:10.420 | compounding of Apple stock, right and so if you

00:23:13.020 | think about reasonable number of grants as his level of

00:23:15.480 | seniority plus compounding, plus whatever he would have, you

00:23:19.200 | should be part of his team. Somebody said in this clip,

00:23:21.900 | because that's the argument is I do think you end up getting to

00:23:25.860 | probably show you got to include the appreciation. Yeah, you get

00:23:29.520 | to buy it now price at 15. And

00:23:30.960 | call it and they've also also you could make the argument

00:23:33.760 | they've rendered him unemployable in the industry. So

00:23:36.100 | there's foregone

00:23:37.120 | income.

00:23:37.920 | Then it could be 20 mental suffering. What about suffering?

00:23:42.200 | He is going to be in a position where he's going to be in a

00:23:42.920 | position where he's going to suffer, he's going to need to be

00:23:44.460 | on meds. My client is suffering. He's in therapy twice a week. He

00:23:48.900 | can't get out of bed, he's not going to be able to be in

00:23:51.260 | functional relationships. And he's too scared to leave the

00:23:53.920 | house.

00:23:54.380 | He should wait on the substack because he's gonna make so much

00:23:56.540 | money on substack. It's gonna mitigate his damages.

00:23:59.180 | Yeah, don't take

00:24:00.260 | away. Just wait on the

00:24:02.540 | you guys know what Apple's market cap divided by employees

00:24:07.420 | is. Apple is Apple's market 7 million and employee.

00:24:12.660 | Anyone else? Wait a second. There's 100,000 employees and

00:24:16.080 | it's worth 2 trillion.

00:24:17.340 | Okay, there's 150,000 employees 2.1 trillion. So it's 14 million

00:24:22.920 | an employee. So the other way to think about it is if Apple's

00:24:26.100 | like gonna lose one or two good employees over this. You know,

00:24:29.900 | they'd happily pay up to get to get the guy to be quiet. So it's

00:24:34.160 | worth one employee to pay $14 million.

00:24:37.140 | Well, no, I mean, well, you're not dividing by all the slave

00:24:40.940 | labor in China.

00:24:41.760 | And I'll recalc I'll recalc. Well, they cause they actually

00:24:45.840 | cost zero. That was bad. Sorry.

00:24:50.220 | All the time. It's dark, but it's true. I mean, this is the

00:24:54.480 | hypocrisy of Apple. They've literally got slave labor in

00:24:58.680 | their supply chain. Not that they wanted in their supply

00:25:01.020 | chain. How do you know that? How do you know that? Let's just go

00:25:05.220 | through this because like this is a common narrative. But has

00:25:07.680 | anyone actually like gotten to the bottom of that's why I said

00:25:10.440 | report.

00:25:11.500 | Yeah, yeah, it is it is known again, like I don't like I don't

00:25:16.540 | like pushing narratives.

00:25:17.620 | Why? I actually I tweeted something that I'm well, I

00:25:20.740 | retweeted something that came from I think a pretty valid

00:25:24.100 | source, that author from the Atlantic, who I think is pretty

00:25:28.940 | legit.

00:25:29.500 | Also, I just think just in terms of his quote, if he had taken

00:25:32.180 | the word woman out of the quote, most people in the Bay Area are

00:25:35.260 | soft and weak. In a zombie apocalypse. I don't think

00:25:38.560 | you're recruiting from the Bay Area. But related to this, I'm

00:25:41.240 | going to go back to the story. And I'm going to go back to this

00:25:43.280 | story. In terms of Chamath point about, you know, 1000 X

00:25:48.380 | performers. America is really doing a bad job at math and Gary

00:25:53.720 | Tan, the venture capitalist retweeted and participated in a

00:25:57.860 | tweet thread about immigrants. Who know that standardized test

00:26:02.300 | is probably your best shot at getting somewhere. Your money

00:26:04.880 | social size can take you the rules are well standardized. And

00:26:08.240 | he tells this story about this. But there was a persuasion

00:26:10.980 | about us failing math and that they're going to be in

00:26:14.100 | California, getting rid of the gifted programs for math, because

00:26:18.940 | it's unfair to the kids who are not gifted as a kid who is was

00:26:23.520 | not gifted. And to the three kids on the program who were in

00:26:28.080 | gifted programs, or at least two of you were, I have no problem

00:26:30.960 | with there being a gifted program. But any thoughts on

00:26:33.180 | this?

00:26:33.540 | I think it's shameful. Yeah,

00:26:36.500 | it really is. I mean, like we are we are really doing our level

00:26:40.080 | best to just

00:26:40.740 | completely fuck our population. Why? I mean, why is this even?

00:26:46.380 | How could this even be possible? It's like, like, just like it's

00:26:50.460 | it's kind of like the equivalent. It's the moral

00:26:53.160 | equivalent of actually saying, you know what, we're going to

00:26:55.300 | eliminate welfare for the bottom 5%. Like, our job as a society

00:27:01.800 | is to kind of like find the broadest set of solutions for

00:27:06.100 | the most number of people and solve for both extremes.

00:27:10.500 | So when you're dealing with education, you both need to

00:27:13.380 | understand that there are folks that need some kind of

00:27:16.620 | structural support. Look, when I came to Canada, I had ESL, right

00:27:20.160 | English as a second language, you take that so that you can

00:27:22.560 | learn the native language of a country. It didn't mean that I

00:27:25.180 | was stupid. It just meant that I was behind. You know, if I had

00:27:28.480 | dyslexia or something else, I would need some kind of support.

00:27:31.480 | One of my children had a speech impediment, we had a speech

00:27:33.900 | therapist, this is what you do. But on the other side, if you

00:27:37.020 | have a kid who's an incredibly high performer who has a

00:27:39.420 | potential to just

00:27:40.260 | completely crush, hey, like you should be able to give that kid

00:27:44.820 | a pathway to achieve and give back. So the idea that you

00:27:48.300 | would eliminate anything at the extremes is kind of completely

00:27:51.420 | uncompassionate and stupid, just totally fucking stupid.

00:27:55.020 | Well, it's in the name of having a more equitable math class.

00:27:58.920 | Again, I hate that word. Please don't use that word. Please

00:28:02.220 | don't use that word. That is that is the least

00:28:04.980 | way this this I mean, this goes back to the point I made a few

00:28:07.320 | episodes ago that you know, you can have progress or you can have

00:28:10.020 | equality, but it's very difficult to have both. And you

00:28:12.840 | know, if you want to try and make everyone equal and give no

00:28:15.120 | one the opportunity to have more or get more than anyone else

00:28:18.720 | because of whatever the circumstance may be, whether it's

00:28:20.940 | earned No, no, but this is my point. Like, you know, you limit

00:28:25.960 | the ability for everyone to progress as a group because

00:28:28.980 | we're now limiting the ability for folks to take calculus.

00:28:31.380 | I know equality. Look, I'll use a video game example. Equality

00:28:34.780 | means we all get to play Grand Theft Auto. Not that we have

00:28:37.980 | somebody who actually plays for us.

00:28:39.780 | And gets to the same answer and just gives you a ticket that says

00:28:42.600 | we don't get the same score on the same score. Yeah. So so the

00:28:46.440 | so that's that is what equality means is that we all get to play.

00:28:49.500 | And we all get a chance versus equity, which is leveling

00:28:52.440 | everyone. Equity is leveling everybody and saying here's your

00:28:55.380 | result, right? By the way, it's the same as this other person,

00:28:57.780 | whatever the misnomer is, but the notion of leveling everyone

00:29:00.360 | where no one can be ahead of anyone else by too far,

00:29:02.940 | obviously limits as a group, our ability for the top decile to

00:29:07.380 | increment or the top quartile to increment.

00:29:09.540 | I got to think, look, let's, let's again, use, let's again,

00:29:12.840 | use our friends because instead of ours, but, you know, we know a

00:29:15.900 | lot of really smart people who have really, really smart kids.

00:29:20.880 | We also know people in general that are in tough circumstances

00:29:25.440 | who also probably have really smart kids. Just purely

00:29:30.000 | selfishly for me, I want those kids doing the best they can to

00:29:34.380 | figure out what the hell they can invent for us in the future.

00:29:36.660 | Why would you slow those kids down?

00:29:39.300 | You know, it's kind of like saying, you know what, like, how

00:29:42.600 | about a black athlete? Would you would it be preposterous to say,

00:29:45.660 | you know what, you don't have a right to go to the NBA and make

00:29:49.140 | money for your family. I'm going to slow you down. Because

00:29:52.140 | there's another white kid that's going to go through four years

00:29:54.240 | of college. So you know what, you're going to have to go

00:29:55.860 | through four years of college and you're going to have to pay

00:29:57.660 | for it.

00:29:57.900 | Well, actually, what I would propose is when I go up to dunk

00:30:02.460 | that we just the rim automatically lowers two feet.

00:30:05.220 | Yeah, I like that.

00:30:06.240 | So I can dunk and then when you go for a layup, we'll just raise

00:30:09.060 | six inches, it'd be more equitable for me.

00:30:11.340 | That's more equitable.

00:30:12.000 | Yes, more equitable.

00:30:13.200 | Let me let me let me add another layer to this. So I agree with

00:30:16.320 | you with you guys that what we should be thinking about is

00:30:18.780 | opportunity, we should always be asking what increases

00:30:21.240 | opportunity for the most people. And that's how we should measure

00:30:23.820 | political programs. And we're not doing that here. We are sort

00:30:27.660 | of leveling down. But I would say it's even more nefarious

00:30:29.820 | than that. Which is I think what's happening is that the

00:30:33.240 | education establishment is completely failing our kids and

00:30:36.900 | our schools. And what they're trying to do is

00:30:38.820 | destroy the evidence of that failure. And so they're hiding,

00:30:43.320 | they're hiding the results. Now, this persuasion piece, yes,

00:30:47.580 | this persuasion piece lays out the statistics, which are pretty

00:30:51.240 | grim. Okay. So according to these like global measurements

00:30:54.240 | by OECD, okay, math proficiency in the US, we rank 37 in the

00:31:00.120 | world. Okay, and there's only 37 developed nations in the world,

00:31:03.720 | according to the developed. So we're last among developed

00:31:06.420 | countries, China, which is our main global

00:31:08.580 | competitor is number one. Okay. And we achieved these horrible

00:31:12.420 | results despite ranking fifth in the world in per pupil spending.

00:31:15.180 | So it's not a spending problem. Okay. And as we know, to the

00:31:20.700 | extent we do have high performing math students in the

00:31:22.380 | US, a huge majority of them are actually foreign born. And so

00:31:26.460 | we're actually kind of cheating our numbers a little bit. It's

00:31:29.160 | even worse than it appears. Now, what is the education

00:31:32.100 | establishment doing about this? How are they hiding the failure?

00:31:34.860 | Well, when school comes back in the fall, they're planning to

00:31:38.340 | eliminate accelerated math. Okay. That means that there's no more

00:31:41.340 | algebra for eighth graders who are ready to take it on. There's

00:31:44.280 | no more calculus for high schoolers who want to, you know,

00:31:47.820 | do like the AP classes and get a jump on STEM, you know, for

00:31:51.480 | college. The entire idea of gifted students is now under

00:31:55.080 | attack. Like we talked about in the name of equity, it's become

00:31:58.140 | a catchall for every bad idea. And the University of California

00:32:01.860 | system has now abandoned the SAT and ACT.

00:32:05.160 | So they temporarily got rid of those requirements during the

00:32:08.100 | pandemic. But now they've used it as an excuse. They've never

00:32:12.000 | wasted a crisis. And now they say they're not bringing back

00:32:14.280 | the requirements until at least 2025. And you can bet it's never

00:32:18.780 | going to return at all. And so here's the thing. They're trying

00:32:21.540 | to get rid of measuring how bad we are at math. So we won't have

00:32:25.260 | to think about it. They just want to give everyone a gold

00:32:27.900 | star and a pat on the back and say how equitable we are.

00:32:30.420 | You know what this reminds me of, Sax, is when you threw

00:32:32.520 | away the digital scale I got you.

00:32:35.640 | Right.

00:32:37.860 | I'm not fat because I'm not measuring it. Great.

00:32:41.820 | Perfect.

00:32:42.960 | Oh my God. It's like, we really, it's the movie Idiocracy. Literally,

00:32:51.120 | we are doing the movie Idiocracy. Have you guys seen Idiocracy?

00:32:53.880 | Why don't we just eliminate all admissions programs at every

00:32:58.080 | university and just have one global admissions board where every campus is the same? What is

00:33:03.060 | the difference between MIT and Stanford and Caltech and the

00:33:07.620 | University of Arkansas? In my opinion, there shouldn't be. It's more equitable

00:33:10.980 | to just have somebody go close to home because you can save money.

00:33:14.460 | You know, carbon emissions are lower, right? You can just take the bus to the local school.

00:33:18.840 | Also, competition is unfair.

00:33:19.560 | You can have one centralized place teach you a few basic course. I mean, if I said this,

00:33:24.840 | you'd think that I was a crazy person. Except that's basically what we're now telling all of

00:33:28.920 | our high school and middle school kids. I'm also getting rid of Michelin stars and I'd

00:33:31.440 | like Yelp to take off their review system because it's not equitable. Like, we should not have Michelin

00:33:37.380 | stars anymore. Every chef should just get-- Every restaurant's the same.

00:33:39.600 | Every restaurant should get three quarters of a star.

00:33:41.520 | We should not-- the health department should not give ranks of letters and they should not

00:33:46.080 | be forced to post it because that's inequitable. Absolutely.

00:33:48.660 | You know? Yeah.

00:33:50.220 | Also, you can game the health test. You could literally just follow the rules.

00:33:54.240 | So, let me just ask the counterpoint question, which is standardized testing,

00:34:00.780 | for example, benefits people that can afford tutors and special classes to get

00:34:07.140 | ahead and therefore-- Provide more tutors.

00:34:09.060 | Yeah, therefore-- For free.

00:34:10.200 | Well, therefore, it's higher income people that can always-- Well, the point is they can always

00:34:13.740 | layer on additional tutoring. They can always layer on additional classes and therefore, they

00:34:17.460 | can always-- There's a finite number of math.

00:34:18.720 | It's a finite score, Friedberg. You can only get 800 on the math SATs.

00:34:22.380 | I'll be somewhat flip-floppy here. I don't believe in standardized tests that much. I

00:34:29.160 | never did well particularly in standardized tests. I do think that they can be gamed,

00:34:32.880 | but that's different from what we're talking about. What we're saying is if kids

00:34:36.900 | show aptitude, we are explicitly choosing to not give them a chance to develop at their potential.

00:34:43.080 | And the problem is we do this in other areas. We do it in athletics. We do it in music. We do it

00:34:50.460 | in the arts, but we're not going to do it in STEM. That's what we're choosing to do. That is what's

00:34:55.560 | crazy. So, choose to get rid of the SAT or ACT, whatever you want. I don't care.

00:35:00.600 | But if you are the LeBron James of physics, Jesus Christ, like let that kid become

00:35:06.660 | the LeBron James of physics. I'll tell you, I got into UC Berkeley because I had great standardized

00:35:12.000 | test scores because I had an aptitude for- What was your SAT, Friedberg? Let's do this.

00:35:17.400 | I got a- Let's do this.

00:35:20.400 | An 800 math and I think it was a 720 verbal. Okay. So, you got a 1520 out of 1600 at the time.

00:35:27.360 | I got an 1160. Yeah, and I got an 800 on the math.

00:35:30.360 | Sacks. I'm last, obviously. Sacks, go ahead.

00:35:34.500 | I was 750 math, 720 verbal. 1470.

00:35:41.700 | Are you writing this down? This was pre the inflation. There was a big SAT inflation.

00:35:46.980 | I was 1510 on the SAT. Oh, we were- Okay. So, I woke up 400 points,

00:35:52.680 | 500 points behind each of you. In Canada, it was just kind of like,

00:35:56.220 | we didn't even write it, but I went and I wrote it just for shits and giggles.

00:35:58.800 | I didn't do well. I didn't do well like-

00:36:01.140 | You just said you weren't good at standardized tests. So, what are you talking about?

00:36:03.600 | You're in the top 3%. Yeah.

00:36:05.700 | Yeah, I know. But generally, I wasn't a good test taker. I was in probation in college,

00:36:09.600 | academic probation. I'm not a good test taker. Yeah, but look, the reason why these tests got

00:36:13.560 | invented was actually to prevent discrimination. I think it was back in the '50s.

00:36:18.540 | Right. I think it was like,

00:36:20.220 | and at that time, it was Jews being kept out of the Ivy League. And one of the ways that

00:36:24.300 | they corrected for that was they made everyone take the same test. And so, you could see the

00:36:27.900 | scores and it would shine some light on making sure that people didn't just get in because they

00:36:33.360 | had their legacies, that they got in because they had good scores. And there's been decades

00:36:40.200 | of work since then to try and eliminate bias in the test. And so, the claims of bias now in the

00:36:46.320 | test really aren't supported. Now, to Freberg's point, obviously,

00:36:51.420 | that if you take some rich kid who lives in the suburbs who gets a 1400 and you compare that to

00:36:58.380 | a kid in the inner city who doesn't have, who grew up poor, doesn't have the advantages, and

00:37:03.120 | that kid gets a 1300, well, which score is better? Probably the 1300. And so, you can take that into

00:37:09.300 | account, in my view, in the admissions process. But eliminating the scores altogether, why would

00:37:15.420 | you want to have less information to make a decision? Yeah, there's no reason not to get

00:37:19.260 | rid of these. I would just think more holistically about how you accept students. And I mean,

00:37:23.520 | is it more competition and having better teachers, what we should be focusing on here,

00:37:28.740 | as opposed to even standardized testing or, God forbid, canceling programs? Let's

00:37:32.880 | invest in more competition for schools. Well, so in Canada, we had this thing

00:37:37.260 | where when I was graduating, we had specific different kinds of math contests and computer

00:37:42.480 | science contests and other things that you could write, the Putnam, et cetera. And

00:37:48.060 | those things were actually really instructive because they were purely verticalized things

00:37:53.100 | that could test your aptitude. And the school that I went to, University of Waterloo,

00:37:57.420 | would look at a lot of those things and adjust for it because my grades were decent. But my,

00:38:02.640 | some of those, this one specific math test I took was pretty good, I remember. And then they would

00:38:07.620 | adjust it exactly as David said to what is this kid's background and his circumstances, and they

00:38:12.360 | called it a French factor. They would just adjust my marks. And that's how I got into Waterloo,

00:38:16.860 | and I didn't think I was going to. So there's all kinds of ways where you can be smart about it. But

00:38:21.840 | again, we're talking about, guys, don't lose sight of what you're saying. We are actually going to

00:38:26.340 | cut all these kids off at the knees starting in grade eight. So forget about all of this stuff.

00:38:30.900 | Right. By the time that these kids graduate,

00:38:32.400 | they're going to be, I honestly, they're going to be like, really dumb.

00:38:35.640 | Right. The problem ultimately isn't just measurement, it's the denial of opportunity

00:38:40.140 | to learn. It's about getting rid of the learning and the classes. That's the biggest problem.

00:38:45.540 | You have to move to a state with a gifted program now, if your kid is really smart.

00:38:49.260 | Or opt out of public education, which doesn't help anybody. I mean, literally, schools don't have to

00:38:54.900 | teach. We've now designed a system to summarize. Schools don't have to compete for students.

00:39:00.660 | Teachers don't

00:39:02.160 | have to compete for jobs or for their employment. And now we're saying students don't have to

00:39:06.600 | compete. So if you remove competition from the human condition, you're just not going to have

00:39:12.780 | any performance. There's going to be no progress. And as a species, we need progress. We need to

00:39:18.420 | solve global warming. We need to solve a lot of issues. And don't we want to live longer and

00:39:23.820 | better lives? Like where is the optimistic nature of the human species? Competition is at the core of

00:39:31.920 | excellence. And to just take it out of everything, the whole stack.

00:39:36.240 | J. Cal, that's the smartest thing you've ever said. Way smarter than an 1120 SAT score.

00:39:40.380 | Thank you. Thank you.

00:39:42.480 | Are you sure it was only 1120? How lame is it that we're still talking about our SAT scores

00:39:47.880 | like 30 years later? 800 was the average. So in Brooklyn,

00:39:50.100 | when you're 320 points above average, David, it's a BFD.

00:39:53.820 | What's lame is the four of us all remember, down to the number of what our score is. That's what's

00:39:58.740 | lame. I think I was 1120, 1150. I got to look it up.

00:40:01.680 | All right. Do we want to go to the crypto meltdown or talk about inflation? Or do we

00:40:07.680 | should we dovetail those together? Or just want to go straight to UFOs?

00:40:10.140 | Well, bright Biden just they just a press release just hit the wire and they just cut the

00:40:15.660 | infrastructure bill from 2.3 trillion to 1.7 trillion.

00:40:19.260 | Oh, we're doing our job here at the podcast.

00:40:22.560 | And I had heard from somebody that there just is not the broad based support for

00:40:31.440 | capital gains tax. So that's not going to happen. And it looks like the corporate tax

00:40:36.600 | will probably go to 25%. Not even up to 28%. And interestingly, I didn't realize this. But one of

00:40:43.860 | the biggest features of the bill that has the most popularity is that they're closing this

00:40:47.520 | loophole around IP that sits outside the United States. And that more than the corporate taxes

00:40:53.700 | will raise almost a trillion dollars of revenue. I agree with that one. Why should you put your

00:40:57.600 | why is Apple I mean, you want to talk about hypocrisy, putting their IP in Ireland, so

00:41:01.200 | you don't pay taxes. It was everybody's doing that. Why does that exist? It's so un-American.

00:41:05.940 | Well, it's a subsidiary that has different taxation on it. And you know, to kind of

00:41:11.820 | that capital and that and that earnings sits outside the US

00:41:16.800 | that IP was made in California. It was not made in Dublin. No offense to you know, my home country.

00:41:23.700 | I remember Facebook, we did that we did this exact thing. We signed over all the IP. And then the IRS

00:41:29.940 | sued Facebook. And I remember Facebook was the first company to do that. And then the IRS sued

00:41:30.960 | Facebook. And I remember like I was called either to I was subpoenaed. And we went through like a

00:41:35.520 | whole multi year trial, it may still be going on. And it was around this issue, which was the IRS

00:41:39.840 | said, Hey, Facebook, how come you, you know, you ported this over there? And I think Facebook's

00:41:45.300 | answer was, yeah, we paid the tax. And I think they did. They don't think they did anything wrong

00:41:48.900 | because the laws allowed it. But it effectively helped shield then 10s of billions of dollars of

00:41:53.700 | future taxes. I mean, I remember reading about this. And I'm like, how does this pass the sniff

00:41:59.160 | test? Well, it's where the revenue is recognized J Cal. So you basically can produce the IP here and

00:42:04.500 | then transfer it to your subsidiary. When you transfer to your subsidiary, you can recognize

00:42:09.240 | the earnings in that subsidiary and that subsidiary pays taxes in its local jurisdiction. The I think

00:42:15.480 | the issue Facebook had was that they transferred the IP and they undervalued what the future value

00:42:21.780 | would be from that IP transfer. And that's why the IRS sued them is this accounting snafu in terms of

00:42:26.820 | like, what did you value it out at the moment you transferred it?

00:42:28.920 | Here's another idea. Why doesn't Why don't they look at as part of this IP licensing? Where does

00:42:35.160 | the consumption of that IP occur? And where do the employees who maintain that IP live?

00:42:41.100 | J Cal, it's a very smart idea. The problem is that's the slippery slope that then gets

00:42:45.060 | to local taxation. You know, the thing is, we have all these global tax treaties where

00:42:49.080 | these large corporate entities can basically play this game, and they're not subject to local tax.

00:42:54.120 | But that's the thing that's going to really start the undoing of the big monopoly.

00:42:58.680 | Please, because if you start to abandon these global tax treaties, and you're starting to see

00:43:04.380 | it, France is trying to do some stuff, the UK is trying to do some stuff, states individually in

00:43:10.080 | the United States are trying to sue these companies or tax them more. That's the that's the first way

00:43:14.820 | to chip away at these monopolies is to basically say, fuck your global tax treaty, you need to pay

00:43:19.560 | x amount of dollars to be here. And it already exists because of these, you know, realist,

00:43:25.140 | sorry, the retail tax nexus is and how ecommerce can be used.

00:43:28.440 | And then you have the

00:43:51.740 | commerce companies have to pay local tax in the areas. But once it sort of touches a whole bunch

00:43:58.200 | of these companies, you know, that country doesn't care what the taxation is in Zimbabwe, right, or

00:44:03.540 | Canada, they're like, if I'm the UK or France, I'm like, I look at the top 20 apps in my country. And

00:44:08.220 | I'm like, wait a minute, these guys would be paying me $50 billion a year in tax. It's hard

00:44:12.840 | to get away from the incentive to not want to tax these companies right now.

00:44:15.720 | Sax. Any thoughts?

00:44:17.640 | Yeah, I don't have a huge thought on the IP issue. It seems like I know

00:44:22.920 | the the Republican proposal on the infrastructure was six to 800 billion.

00:44:27.960 | Biden's proposal initially was 2.3. Chamath is right now they're down to 1.7. I think the markets

00:44:34.200 | have been choking on the size of all of this tax and spend. And the there's been all these reports

00:44:40.800 | of inflation spiking. And so the growth stocks have just been hammered. Because we're all

00:44:47.100 | expecting big interest rate increases to control this future inflation. So

00:44:51.600 | Biden's been horrible for growth stocks so far. And it really I guess that what it shows is that

00:44:57.720 | you know, what are growth stocks, growth stocks are future investment. And it shows the way that

00:45:02.460 | the government can crowd out when you have excess government spending. I guess you can call it an

00:45:07.920 | investment if you want. But when you have excess government spending, it starts to crowd out private

00:45:13.320 | investment, because it raises interest rates. And that, you know, decreases the value of growth

00:45:19.680 | stocks. And there's less money that flows into that. Yeah, it does seem like the market reaction

00:45:25.980 | to the infrastructure bill, and to inflation has made Biden reconsider his approach. And maybe he

00:45:34.680 | just came out too hot. I don't think Biden's reconsidering. I think it's people like Joe

00:45:39.420 | Manchin. Remember, it's a 50s Warner, Mark Warner, Kristen cinema, the moderate, there's three or four

00:45:45.240 | moderate Democrats in the Senate, who I think are receiving the message. I'm not putting it really

00:45:50.820 | well, the last pod that the markets are sending a message to Washington. I think some of those

00:45:55.560 | centrist Democrats read the message. I don't think Biden's aware of it. I don't know what he's aware

00:46:00.420 | of. He doesn't seem too aware of anything to me. But I think the moderate Democrats are getting a

00:46:04.080 | message. And they're telling they're telling the White House the package is too big. And they're,

00:46:08.460 | and I think that's why it's coming.

00:46:09.780 | The other thing that I think people may be getting their heads around, here's what's changed since

00:46:14.520 | last week. There's a growing body if I had to say like, you know, the beautiful thing about the markets

00:46:20.580 | is it is an extremely elegant voting mechanism in the short term, right? I mean, Buffett says it's,

00:46:25.680 | it's a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. But if you

00:46:30.120 | look at sentiment and how things are voted on in the public markets in real time, it's incredibly

00:46:36.660 | illustrative. So there's a body of people now that are voting a very different scenario than inflation.

00:46:43.080 | What they're voting for now is this idea that by the fall, a lot of this short term pent up demand will have

00:46:50.340 | worked its way through the system. And instead, we'll be back to this realization that we've had

00:46:54.960 | for the last 20 years, which is, hey, wait a minute, people don't actually want to buy more

00:46:59.160 | of these physical goods, they're going to go back to consuming the way they did before, it's going

00:47:03.240 | to reflexively push towards technology companies again, and we're going to have this rebirth of

00:47:07.800 | growth. And you would say, Well, how would you know that that vote is likely? And this one

00:47:13.500 | incredible thing happened this last week, which I just want to throw out here. One thing that I look

00:47:17.940 | at is this thing called 10 year break evens,

00:47:20.100 | which is basically a thing that the Federal Reserve of St. Louis publishes.

00:47:24.240 | And what it basically shows is like what people think collectively trillions of dollars, what the

00:47:30.240 | 10 year break even interest rates going to be. And it peaked last week at 2.54%. And it's fallen 13

00:47:37.680 | basis points just in the last week down to 241. And I don't know whether it's sustained or whatever,

00:47:43.920 | but there is a growing idea that the worst may be behind us. And if you layer on top of this

00:47:49.860 | right now, Biden pulling back, right on stimulus, because he's can't get it done, pulling back on

00:47:58.440 | cap gains, pulling back on corporate taxation, and a more measured policy of investment.

00:48:04.680 | We could all be back.

00:48:07.020 | So we're basically taking the medicine and getting back to where we were. But we still

00:48:12.240 | have massive asset inflation, we're seeing in houses, cars and other things.

00:48:16.020 | Well, we may have just pulled forward demand, meaning, you know, people are like,

00:48:19.620 | okay, I'm flush with money, the savings rate in the United States has been, you know,

00:48:23.040 | going at an incredible clip, people may pull forward all that spending and say,

00:48:27.360 | I was going to buy a car 18 months from now, or I was going to buy a house two years from now.

00:48:32.040 | Fuck it, I'm going to do it now because prices are going up too fast, I don't want to miss out.

00:48:36.720 | But then they're out of the market now for the next many number of years. And this is

00:48:41.040 | what I'm saying where you see this short term spike of demand, and then things get back to

00:48:45.600 | normal. If that's what we see, good times are back in growth stock.

00:48:49.380 | I literally I did like two or three early stage deals recently. And I had members of my syndicate

00:49:01.560 | say like, how does this valuation make sense? And I said to them, you know, it actually doesn't make

00:49:06.420 | sense. If you're looking at it with the traditional metrics, but all valuations are higher at all

00:49:11.460 | stages. So I'm going to selectively you know, overpay compared to what we were paying a year or

00:49:17.760 | two ago.

00:49:18.260 | You know, if I really love a company, but I will sit out a lot of I'm sitting out a lot of rounds

00:49:23.900 | right now that I just can't get my head around the valuation. So hopefully some

00:49:28.340 | well, there's always a trickle down, there's always a trickle down from growth stocks in

00:49:32.600 | the public markets to venture, right? Because the last private investors like the big funds,

00:49:38.060 | who do the super late stage stuff, they're just doing an arbitrage on what they pay versus what

00:49:43.100 | the company is going to list for publicly. So when they see those valuations go down, they adjust,

00:49:47.480 | and then it works.

00:49:48.020 | It's way all the way down the stack. So you know, growth stocks have just been hammered,

00:49:53.360 | and especially all the recent listings, the IPOs and SPACs and everything. And,

00:49:58.820 | and that's going to trickle its way down, I think, to venture system.

00:50:02.060 | I think we have the Yeah, I think we have the lead indicator on that as Clubhouse,

00:50:05.960 | right, which will be the canary in the coal mine. I don't know how you guys reconcile

00:50:09.920 | explain, explain what's going on with clubhouse just for those of us explain what it is.

00:50:13.580 | Okay, so clubhouse is a casual audio space, you go into a room,

00:50:17.240 | and you're going to be able to get a lot of money out of it.

00:50:17.780 | And you're immediately taken to a live conversation with people speaking on stage

00:50:21.920 | and an audience audience members can be promoted to the stage and start talking.

00:50:25.880 | In a way, hold on, it's in an app. And it's an audio. So there's an audio,

00:50:30.380 | there's an app you go in, and it's all audio. Yes.

00:50:32.420 | So it's like amateur night at a strip club, but for words,

00:50:35.120 | or more comedy club, or whatever, you just bring public on stage. Yeah,

00:50:38.660 | it's kind of like a champagne room, but a little different. So anyway,

00:50:43.520 | there we go. More like the pod.

00:50:47.060 | Yeah.

00:50:47.540 | Apple 2000 signatures from Apple to remove all in from the podcasting app.

00:50:52.640 | We just lost three ranks in the Apple podcasting app.

00:50:56.000 | So what's very interesting about this app is that it had a massive number of downloads during the

00:51:03.380 | pandemic because people were home and people were not doing anything at night because they

00:51:06.860 | were sheltering in place. And they had in you know, 2 million downloads in January 9.5 million

00:51:13.880 | in February of this year and then came crashing down 2.7 million in in in the fall.

00:51:17.300 | And then in March and 922 in April, but at the same time, their valuation over 18 months went

00:51:24.980 | from 100 million in their seed when they had like three or 4000 users to a billion to 4 billion in

00:51:31.160 | the last round of financing for a company with zero revenue. And let's call it a couple of

00:51:37.520 | million people using the app. And what's really interesting is the same venture firm led all

00:51:42.140 | three rounds Allah Sequoia is investment in WhatsApp where they did all the private funding.

00:51:46.400 | So you have no outside capital marking this valuation a $4 billion valuation $4 billion.

00:51:52.700 | Well, they got a they got an acquisition offer from Twitter for 4 billion. And they they turned

00:51:57.680 | they confirmed I've heard it was real. So, so but so basically, the reason why the 4 billion private

00:52:04.040 | round happened was so that we keep going as an independent company. They could basically take

00:52:08.540 | some chips off the table through secondary and kind of go for the bigger outcome. But yeah,

00:52:12.800 | they could have just sold to Twitter for 4 billion. So, they may.

00:52:16.160 | They end up regretting that.

00:52:17.360 | But like, is this really a function of a broader inflation valuation inflation? Or is this just a

00:52:25.580 | function of there was a company that was a social network with hyper growth. And then it turns out

00:52:30.080 | that the product had no stickiness and the hyper growth went away.

00:52:32.420 | The souffle collapsed.

00:52:33.920 | The souffle collapsed.

00:52:35.120 | Can I can I can I just point out like and forgive me if any, any of you guys are investors in this

00:52:40.640 | company or anyone that's listening cares. But like if this thing came out before,

00:52:45.920 | YouTube, people would say, you know, this is interesting, but it needs an asynchronous killer.

00:52:51.380 | It needs a thing where you can like record a conversation posted online, and people can come

00:52:55.280 | and watch it and listen to it when they want. It was always so crazy to me that you had to be logged

00:52:59.540 | into the app to listen to what was going on. And if you didn't, you missed the conversation. And

00:53:03.500 | there was no way to like, go watch the recording of the conversation. Like, am I crazy to think

00:53:07.880 | that this was just like, I think you nailed it that they don't have a sink in there. And actually,

00:53:12.740 | I've got a little disclosure to make here. Oh,

00:53:15.680 | what? What? The beat got wet. But it's

00:53:21.020 | breaking news story. Okay, so I think I understand what clubhouse did wrong. Async is a huge part of

00:53:29.840 | it. But rather than tell you exactly I'm going to show you because I've been incubating a new

00:53:35.000 | lot that we're on test flight right now. And you guys after this pod, I can I can demo it for you.

00:53:44.720 | And if you guys if you guys want to invest, I'm going to close around this week for

00:53:49.280 | each getting wet. And so if you guys want to evaluate what's the value? What's our insider

00:53:53.540 | all in? What's the bestie Val? Yeah, what's the bestie? I'll talk to you guys offline.

00:53:57.500 | How much? How much money do you want to raise?

00:53:59.360 | We're already we're raising 10 million bucks and we already have commitments and but I'm creating

00:54:03.860 | room for you guys. Yeah. 500k each. Sounds like 500k each. Where is it? Let's talk about it offline.

00:54:11.420 | But but the apps on test flight, I think we'll be ready to launch in a few weeks.

00:54:14.480 | Can I can I say what's it called?

00:54:16.640 | Can you say? Yeah, no, I'll say it. It's called call in.

00:54:20.840 | Call in.

00:54:21.980 | Call in.

00:54:22.760 | I thought it was I thought it was going to be called glove mouse.

00:54:25.940 | Does this have a podcast?

00:54:30.920 | Yeah. Like are we going to do the podcast on it?

00:54:33.860 | We absolutely could do the podcast on it. And it would be awesome. Nick would be out of a job. So

00:54:38.180 | I don't think he would like that too much. But I think it's good for call ins. If we wanted to do

00:54:41.840 | a call in show, it would be good for that. Yes. It'd be great. It'd be great. It'd be great.

00:54:44.240 | It'd be great to do exactly. That's why it's called call in is because the ability for you

00:54:48.980 | to take callers is obviously a huge feature. But also like we could host after parties for

00:54:54.860 | our fans to like, you know, chop up the latest episode and talk about it.

00:54:58.820 | Yeah, these fans are getting crazy. Do you guys see the all in stats, Twitter handle?

00:55:03.020 | I don't know the Twitter handle off the top of my head. But somebody's these kids are doing

00:55:07.100 | they're using machine learning or something to know what percentage

00:55:14.000 | of time we each speak on the pod and how many monologues and they're doing all these statistics.

00:55:18.140 | It's crazy. That's really cool. I was gonna say, in defense of clubhouse for a second,

00:55:23.600 | I don't I don't know the app per se. But I think like, why Andreessen did all of that,

00:55:28.760 | in my opinion, is because they're pressing a hot hand, which makes a ton of sense from

00:55:33.020 | their perspective. It's like, you know, I think that they're going for the kill shot,

00:55:36.620 | because I think they're basically set up. They're basically set up to become Sequoia if they really,

00:55:42.380 | I mean, I think, if you think about it, I think they're going for the kill shot, because I think,

00:55:43.760 | if you think about like, which two firms are really crushing on all cylinders right now,

00:55:48.740 | obviously, Sequoia has always been the perennial number one. But if you think about the heater

00:55:53.840 | that Andreessen is on, it's incredible. And so from their perspective, the $4 billion valuation

00:55:59.180 | is less important than what is their real capital at risk. And that's probably 100 or 150 million,

00:56:03.800 | which in the grand scheme of having 40 or $50 billion of AUM, if you consider the value of

00:56:09.020 | all their public positions as well, that's a really reasonable risk to take. So I think

00:56:13.520 | that's a really good view. And that way, it's kind of like, they're taking a shot to try to just,

00:56:17.180 | you know, go for it. If it does become worth 10 billion or 50 billion. Also,

00:56:21.020 | if it only gets sold for 500 million, they get their money out first. So what does it matter?

00:56:26.000 | What does it matter? They're going for the $100 billion outcome. I mean,

00:56:28.760 | they've seen that Instagram sold too soon. They saw that Snap turned down a $3 billion

00:56:33.680 | offer from Facebook, and now it's worth 80 billion. So they're going for the $100 billion.

00:56:37.520 | YouTube, 1.6 billion.

00:56:38.900 | Yeah, and now it's worth hundreds of billions. So they're hoping it's going to be like that.

00:56:43.280 | But Chamath is right. Look, if they had taken, what, say 20% of a $4 billion outcome,

00:56:48.380 | 800 million, that doesn't even pay back their fund, right? But if it ends up being $100 billion

00:56:53.360 | outcome, they make 20 billion. Now it's like a Coinbase for them.

00:56:56.960 | What do you think they gave to the founders?

00:56:59.480 | Well, who knows?

00:57:00.980 | To keep them in the game, because 4 billion, if they owned 80%.

00:57:04.040 | Yeah, they took chips off the table. But here's the thing,

00:57:07.940 | all those decisions were made before the recent collapse and engagement at Clubhouse. I'm

00:57:13.040 | not sure anybody would be paying 4 billion for it now, given everything that's gone wrong. But

00:57:18.860 | you know, who knows? It's still pretty early.

00:57:20.900 | And just for people who are curious, there is a Twitter handle, allin_stats. And yeah,

00:57:27.980 | it's allinstats.com. I don't know. We're not affiliated with these maniacs, but we love the

00:57:34.460 | stands, and we're going to do something in person in September. Congratulations to the stands for

00:57:39.020 | losing their minds. I think it's a pretty good way for them to capture

00:57:42.800 | a bunch of attention on the Twitter. All right. Crypto is getting absolutely hammered. And the

00:57:52.220 | Chinese have once again said that they're basically saber rattling about cryptocurrency.

00:57:57.440 | They're obviously going to do their own crypto.

00:57:59.180 | Jason, I think you have to talk about China in a slightly broader lens than just what's happening

00:58:05.420 | in crypto, because this is the same week where they basically forced Zhang Yiming to resign from

00:58:12.560 | the dance. I mean, you know, last week, it was or last month, it was the CEO pin duo duo.

00:58:17.720 | And Jack Ma's MIA.

00:58:19.340 | They're going for the jugular. I mean, it's like,

00:58:21.800 | we're what why are they taking out all their top CEOs? This would be like putting Elon and

00:58:26.780 | Jeff Bezos on the bench? Is it they just don't want any heroes?

00:58:30.920 | I don't know. I mean, I guess maybe the speculative part of me would say,

00:58:34.580 | they're showing them who's really in charge of these companies.

00:58:37.460 | I mean, it would be crazy to your point, if the government of the United

00:58:42.320 | States forced Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk to resign. It's like,

00:58:49.460 | hey, sorry, I'm sorry, you need to leave right now and put somebody else in and deactivate their

00:58:54.440 | badges.

00:58:54.800 | Yeah, we just we just relentlessly criticize them. Right. But But yeah,

00:58:59.540 | we just demonize them. Just try to cancel them.

00:59:02.960 | But look, but they deserve that level of scrutiny because the amount of power they have. But But

00:59:06.740 | yeah, that we don't we don't put them in jail or house arrest or drive them out of their companies.

00:59:11.360 | And that is a

00:59:12.080 | big advantage for the US economy.

00:59:13.580 | The Treasury Department here in the United States is doing a little saber rattling,

00:59:18.140 | they want to know anytime there is a $10,000 transaction in any kind of digital token. And

00:59:24.860 | they're talking about a CBDC to do their own cryptocurrency. So they're putting out a white

00:59:30.380 | paper for feedback this summer. And we are now seeing a pullback on Bitcoin from mid 60s to now

00:59:40.880 | into the 36 36.

00:59:41.840 | 37,000 per Bitcoin. Do you think this is the end of the beginning beginning of the end?

00:59:47.780 | It's the beginning of the beginning. David Rubenstein was on CNBC today. And David Rubenstein,

00:59:54.800 | for those you guys don't know, is was a co founder of Carlisle group, you know,

00:59:59.240 | more blue chip and blue blooded, you cannot get and very connected in Washington. And you know,

01:00:05.000 | he said it best where he said, you know, effectively, people want this, and the government

01:00:10.580 | will,

01:00:11.240 | uh,

01:00:11.600 | have no choice except to support it, because you can't take something like this with this much

01:00:16.940 | institutional and retail demand away. So we have to go to the place where now crypto needs to be

01:00:23.660 | like everything else. And maybe the crypto stands get upset with that, because they don't like it,

01:00:27.500 | that, you know, a bunch of their parents are all of a sudden going to be buying tokens and stuff,

01:00:31.400 | but they got to get over it, then this stuff should be, you know, transacted in the same

01:00:36.200 | way you transact anything else, you buy it, you sell it, you get a tax return, you pay your taxes,

01:00:40.820 | and you move on.

01:00:41.360 | This reminds me of the transition that we all went through with I don't know,

01:00:45.500 | if you remember Kazaa and Napster and BitTorrent, like, everybody, all the we, a lot of our

01:00:52.520 | contemporaries in their 30s, you know, whatever, 1020 years ago, we're like, you can't stop it,

01:00:57.260 | you can't stop it. And it got stopped. You know, like you made it illegal,

01:01:01.640 | and you prosecuted people. And then you came up with solutions that were regulated,

01:01:06.260 | like Spotify, or, you know, Netflix, and you gave the consumers what they wanted. So,

01:01:11.120 | David, do you think this is a similar path right now that we're going through,

01:01:15.380 | which is the crypto zealots and the and the and the stands are gonna basically have to get used

01:01:22.460 | to as Chamath saying their parents buying it and crypto not being this underground thing,

01:01:26.420 | but being regulated in a major way in the United States? And is that a good or bad thing?

01:01:30.080 | I think the thing that that's happening quietly behind the scenes is that major

01:01:34.340 | Wall Street players, institutions, endowments, and so forth, over the past year have decided that

01:01:40.880 | Bitcoin and crypto is a legitimate asset class, and they've been allocating to it. Huge, huge

01:01:46.340 | pools of capital balance sheet capital have been allocating into it. I don't think that's gonna

01:01:51.560 | change. This is probably a pretty good buying opportunity. We've seen these crashes and Bitcoin

01:01:56.840 | many, many times over the years, it plummets down, and then it goes back up, and it eventually goes

01:02:02.600 | back up reaches a new peak. So this is probably a pretty good entry point for the next rally.

01:02:06.620 | We don't know when that's going to be. But the whole point of Bitcoin is that,

01:02:10.640 | it's censorship resistant. And China can do its best to try and stamp it out. But I don't think

01:02:16.340 | they'll be successful at that. You don't? You're so wrong about that. That is the most naive take,

01:02:22.220 | worst take you've ever had. How's China going to stop Bitcoin?

01:02:24.980 | How do they stop VPNs? They put people in jail. How do they stop religion? They put people in

01:02:28.940 | jail. They may make it incredibly hard for Chinese citizens to get a hold of Bitcoin. I agree with

01:02:34.040 | that. But they're not gonna be able to stop Bitcoin. They're not going to stop Bitcoin in

01:02:38.300 | the West, but they will stop it in China. Yeah.

01:02:40.400 | They will. 100% full stop. And you know how many servers are in China? I mean,

01:02:45.500 | go talk to the people who were in Tiananmen Square about what happened.

01:02:48.500 | The miners will have to move out. The miners will have to move out.

01:02:50.540 | Miners are done. And then it'll be an underground thing. It'll be like having a VPN,

01:02:54.440 | which is five years in jail for selling VPNs. What do you think about the IRS requirement

01:02:59.180 | that you have to report any Bitcoin transaction over $10,000? Do you think that that, and

01:03:04.700 | Americans can be prosecuted for not reporting, right? So I don't know how much.

01:03:10.160 | Good. Fine. Good. So what?

01:03:11.660 | Do it. So what?

01:03:12.500 | Yes. Get over it. But I do think that will get rid of 20% of the transactions that might have been

01:03:17.420 | nefarious. No, this is the Silk Road fallacy that the only legitimate use for crypto or.

01:03:23.300 | Well, I said 20%. I didn't say only.

01:03:24.920 | Okay, fine. But so maybe it makes that small fraction of illegitimate or illicit use cases.

01:03:30.620 | Yeah. Hard to define.

01:03:31.700 | No, Sax, I think the point is that they're trying to chase down. It's

01:03:35.660 | not about illegal use cases. It's about not reporting a taxable gain on your Bitcoin,

01:03:39.920 | before you use that money to buy something.

01:03:42.020 | Sure, of course, it's about tax evasion. But look, but that's not going to stop Bitcoin usage.

01:03:48.080 | Smart people who've been trading Bitcoin have been paying taxes on it for years. I don't think

01:03:54.620 | that's really an issue. If you were in China and you had created your wealth in China or many,

01:03:58.700 | many other countries all over the world, and there were currency restrictions and controls,

01:04:02.660 | and the government was asserting more and more power,

01:04:04.640 | and we're putting business leaders under house arrest and seeking to put them under

01:04:09.680 | their thumb, you'd be trying to convert as much of your net worth into Bitcoin as possible,

01:04:14.480 | so that all you have to do is if you ever had to flee the country, you wouldn't have to have dollars

01:04:20.060 | in your suitcase or gold bricks or diamonds. You'd simply have to have a password in your

01:04:25.040 | brain that you could access at any computer terminal when you got out of the country.

01:04:29.360 | And so that I think that sort of digital gold is a phenomenal use case of Bitcoin.

01:04:35.660 | And the more oppressive all these countries become, the more they

01:04:39.440 | increase the value of that use case. What do you think is the black swan event

01:04:42.980 | in crypto, in Bitcoin in particular? Taxation in the United States.

01:04:49.280 | There's a negative.

01:04:50.420 | Additional taxation like you do on cigarettes, that would be for me. The United States putting

01:04:55.220 | a tax on it that makes it less competitive with our national coming cryptocurrency,

01:05:01.340 | the CBDC that the United States will launch in the next two or three years.

01:05:04.880 | They're going to say, "If you want to use any of these other currencies, there's a 10% tax

01:05:09.200 | on them. We want you using ours, the legitimate one."

01:05:12.260 | There's a very negative black swan that obviously has never occurred. But if anyone

01:05:18.380 | ever manages to counterfeit a Bitcoin, or this is the double spend problem,

01:05:22.820 | right? If you could ever double spend or figure out a way to create Bitcoins or counterfeit them,

01:05:28.880 | whatever, that weren't in the blockchain, if the number of Bitcoins ever grew beyond the

01:05:32.780 | 21 million that's just built into the way that the whole thing works, if that ever happened, Bitcoin is

01:05:38.720 | instantly worth it. Yeah.

01:05:38.960 | That would be the black swan on the negative side. I think the black swan on the positive.

01:05:43.880 | If it didn't happen in the first 11 years, what do you think the like is it on a percentage basis

01:05:47.780 | that it happens in the 20th? Exactly.

01:05:50.120 | It's too expensive now. And it's too visible. The way that it would have happened,

01:05:54.680 | it would have happened in the first two or three years.

01:05:56.420 | Or the argument could be maybe opposite, that now it's so valuable that it's worth

01:05:59.660 | investing to figure out how to- It's a bigger target.

01:06:01.280 | Yeah.

01:06:01.580 | Yeah. And rather than have it be about a diminishing probability,

01:06:05.780 | it could be an increasing probability over time, which is,

01:06:08.720 | is that the pathways to get there start to get resolved. Whereas in the past,

01:06:13.640 | you didn't have enough time to resolve those pathways.

01:06:15.740 | It would have to be- And I'm speaking highly

01:06:17.120 | theoretical here, but like certainly there's a lot of technical-

01:06:19.040 | That doesn't take into account that it's open source and that everybody can see it. So

01:06:22.940 | you would think that everybody would discover the vulnerability at the same time, right? In

01:06:26.840 | an open source project? Well, no, I think the issue,

01:06:29.600 | practically speaking, in this would be that you would see those resources getting organized,

01:06:34.220 | meaning you'd see silicon being bought in volume by some,

01:06:38.480 | centralized player, and then you'd have to see water and power come together as well.

01:06:42.980 | And this is where I think it's just not realistic, where today that I think the horse has left the

01:06:48.140 | barn because if you try to basically capture enough hash rate to kind of like overpower this

01:06:52.880 | network, it's like the scene in Austin Powers where he's screaming in front of a steamroller,

01:07:00.680 | but the steamroller is moving at like one foot a minute.

01:07:03.620 | Right. You'd see it coming.

01:07:04.820 | It's just like, you just see it coming.

01:07:06.740 | Well, would you have a black Swan, Friedberg?

01:07:08.240 | You asked a lot of questions. So do you have one?

01:07:10.400 | I think about it a lot. I don't really, I mean, it's a black Swan. It's because it's a black Swan,

01:07:15.020 | so you don't really see it coming. But like, you know, the thing about Bitcoin,

01:07:20.180 | which has always given me pause,

01:07:24.200 | is the fact that the only way it works is if everyone believes that more people are going

01:07:32.000 | to believe in it tomorrow than believe in it today. Well, that's the only way it appreciates.

01:07:35.960 | Yeah. But

01:07:38.000 | for a variety of reasons, it's also the only way that it works because

01:07:42.920 | if it starts to depreciate, it becomes almost like this unwinding circumstance. And there

01:07:48.860 | are moments where it unwinds, but then people kind of say, well, you know what,

01:07:51.380 | more people are going to get on this. There's the Chinese argument. There's the Argentinian argument.

01:07:54.680 | There's all the reasons why people will try and store wealth in this system. And that becomes a

01:08:00.680 | rationale for continuing to bet on it. And my observation is so many people that are active in

01:08:06.320 | Bitcoin compare Bitcoin to Bitcoin. And I think that's a very important thing. And I think that's

01:08:07.760 | Bitcoin to the price of the dollar, which to me seems like it doesn't make sense relative

01:08:12.540 | to the intention of Bitcoin, which is to not be part of the monetary system that uses the

01:08:18.120 | dollar. It's kind of a de facto, you know, system of value. And so why have the comparison

01:08:24.680 | to the dollar? As the objective for Bitcoin? Why is the objective not transactions, use

01:08:30.400 | cases, number of people that are active on the network, etc, etc.

01:08:34.180 | And nobody buying it is buying it as a substitute for dollars. They're buying it as a lottery

01:08:38.420 | ticket.

01:08:38.680 | So yeah, that's, that's right. And so then it becomes this rationale that it's like it's

01:08:42.740 | an investment that you put money in, in the form of dollars or your local currency, with

01:08:48.020 | the intention that you will be able to get more of your local currency out at some point

01:08:51.740 | in the future. And the only way that works is if you expect someone else will buy it

01:08:54.740 | from you at a higher price in the future. Therefore, it's all about propagating the,

01:08:58.900 | you know, the marketing around the Bitcoin. Whereas if your objective was really about

01:09:03.000 | making this become a replacement.

01:09:03.900 | A replacement currency system or replacement monetary system, you would ultimately care

01:09:09.340 | less about, you know, what's the dollar value per coin, and you would care more about how

01:09:12.880 | many people are using it, you know, how active

01:09:15.120 | let me build on that question. So sacks or Chamath, if the CBDC, and Americans currency,

01:09:23.140 | you know, starts to move towards a Bitcoin blockchain like experience, what would America

01:09:28.600 | start to look like if 10 or 20% of your dollars, instead of being held in a bank, we're on

01:09:33.800 | a blockchain with an American

01:09:35.800 | government, a government backed blockchain doesn't accomplish anything, it's still that

01:09:41.220 | people are it centralized, and not only is it centralized, but also, it's still prone

01:09:46.400 | to debasement. Right? Yeah. And so look, human beings have used everything from gold coins

01:09:52.860 | to seashells as money, we can make anything money that's easy to transact if we all agree

01:09:57.960 | on it. That's the sense in which Bitcoin is the bubble that becomes true. If everyone

01:10:02.260 | believes in it, provided provided the number of bitcoins today 21 million, and that the

01:10:07.060 | technology enforces the scarcity. The problem we have with the US dollar is the government

01:10:12.120 | can just print as many of them as they want.

01:10:13.720 | Yeah, you can nominate her. Yeah. And so I think there's a positive black swan as well

01:10:19.320 | for positive for Bitcoin, which is Stanley Druckenmiller thinks in the next 15 years,

01:10:24.800 | the US dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency. Well, what's going to replace it?

01:10:27.160 | The positive black swan would be that Bitcoin becomes, if not the a world reserve currency,

01:10:35.320 | an unofficial world reserve currency. Why? Because people trust it. They trust the decentralization

01:10:42.100 | more than they trust any government. And that would that would be a big flip.

01:10:46.280 | Is that in is the United States and China? Are they going to let Bitcoin become the world's

01:10:52.020 | reserve currency? Well, it's not a choice that they have. You sure? So, yeah, I'm not

01:10:57.160 | Yeah. There's nothing they can do. What about the law? And guns

01:11:02.200 | and jail and tax?

01:11:03.520 | I don't I don't know what that means. There's there's nothing

01:11:06.040 | that they could there was nothing that they could do to

01:11:07.900 | stop it before there's nothing that they can do to stop it

01:11:10.120 | now.

01:11:10.540 | Well, you can't get the New York Times in China and you can't

01:11:13.820 | practice religion there. So they have a pretty easy system.

01:11:15.820 | They put you in jail, they want to stop Bitcoin, they could just

01:11:18.080 | put you in jail. How, by finding out that you have Bitcoin? And

01:11:23.260 | how just well, because they have 100% view into the internet

01:11:27.740 | there. They have how on because they have routers. That's how

01:11:30.820 | they capture all the Uyghurs is they know their location,

01:11:33.940 | because they have mobile phones. And when they use signal or any

01:11:36.400 | other encrypted technology, they catch them. No, I don't I don't

01:11:39.400 | think that's how it works. But that's how they catch all the

01:11:41.840 | dissidents there is they they have them. And they also have

01:11:44.840 | Apple's entire center is controlled by the Chinese

01:11:48.520 | government.

01:11:49.060 | There's no ledger somewhere that says this specific wallet

01:11:52.480 | address.

01:11:53.020 | Equal.

01:11:53.080 | Equals David Sachs, and there's not going to be one anytime

01:11:55.960 | soon. And so you'll have these centralized wallet authorities

01:12:00.040 | that actually, you know, have a lot of account information. But

01:12:03.220 | the reality is the sophisticated actors, you know, use tumblers,

01:12:07.420 | they they wash sort of like their, their paths in a way

01:12:11.080 | where it's very difficult to figure out who these people are.

01:12:13.000 | Now, if you if you don't, if you use a site that doesn't have

01:12:16.300 | KYC, that's always going to be the case. And, you know, people

01:12:19.600 | with huge amounts of Bitcoin are sophisticated enough to know how

01:12:22.540 | to stay anonymous.

01:12:23.040 | If they want to, for everybody else who doesn't care, because

01:12:26.880 | for them, it's sort of an investment asset class, and an,

01:12:29.580 | you know, a hedge, then they're not going to care either. And

01:12:33.900 | the point is, when enough people own it, governments aren't in a

01:12:37.320 | position to track record of them just waking up one day and

01:12:40.440 | pulling the plug on anything is zero. That's not how people do

01:12:43.680 | things. You have to have like centralized policy and support.

01:12:47.040 | And I don't see it one way or the other of all the things that

01:12:50.340 | China and the United States will face over the next 30 or 40 years

01:12:52.860 | this is like 50th on the list.

01:12:55.560 | Sachs, what do you think? Any closing thoughts?

01:12:59.940 | I mean, I think we've said it. So yeah, I mean, look, I think I

01:13:05.520 | think if you're going to stay in a place like the United States,

01:13:07.320 | you need to comply with tax law, you're absolutely going to

01:13:09.600 | report your Bitcoin holdings if it's required. But if the reason

01:13:12.240 | you're buying Bitcoin is because you're fleeing a country, or

01:13:15.540 | you're worried about fleeing a country, you're obviously not

01:13:17.760 | going to report it. And that's the advantage of it is that it's

01:13:21.600 | a portable

01:13:22.200 | money supply. That again, you can just, you don't have to carry

01:13:27.540 | anything with you. You just put a password in your brain wallet.

01:13:30.480 | Tell me about UFOs before we leave. I mean, can you believe

01:13:33.000 | this thing? This is the craziest thing I read.

01:13:36.300 | Yeah, there's a 60 minutes episode that just happened.

01:13:39.660 | Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for intelligence literally

01:13:43.140 | said, the crafts we're seeing are and then in quotes, far

01:13:46.440 | beyond anything that we're capable of. There's nothing we

01:13:49.260 | could build that would be strong enough to endure the amount of

01:13:52.020 | force and acceleration. Imagine a technology that can do 700 g

01:13:55.260 | forces flight 13 miles per hour, evade radar, and has every no

01:13:59.820 | obvious signs of propulsion and yet can clearly defy the effects

01:14:03.120 | of Earth's gravity. That's precisely what we're seeing from

01:14:05.760 | the director of advanced aerospace threat identification

01:14:07.860 | program. I mean, is this real? Like how is what what are we

01:14:11.160 | doing? What? Our government says there are crafts that out trip

01:14:14.640 | our arsenal by at least 100 years to 1000 years at the

01:14:17.460 | moment. And we're like, man, what do you think Friedberg?

01:14:21.240 | You're the scientist.

01:14:21.840 | I'm the scientist here. There's a if you read the original

01:14:24.900 | treatment written by Arthur Clark for the movie 2001, a space Odyssey,

01:14:31.320 | which was written before the movie, and then the book was written after the movie.

01:14:34.740 | He makes a really compelling point. And the point he makes is that when civilizations achieve

01:14:43.200 | a sophisticated enough level of technology,

01:14:46.980 | there's no longer a need to physically transport yourself from star to star.

01:14:51.660 | And transport yourself around the universe. Think about this for a second.

01:14:55.560 | Take what we have from virtual reality today, and fast forward 200 years. And then take what

01:15:02.520 | we have in terms of you know, the ability to print and create anything we want on demand

01:15:06.780 | and fast forward two or 300 years. Those two conditions alone might give us the ability to

01:15:12.780 | strap on something to our brain. And literally, remember, our brain is simply sensing what our

01:15:18.840 | body is given. And if you can control what your brain is sensing, you can control what your brain

01:15:21.480 | is sensing through some strap on device or whatever, you don't actually need to physically

01:15:25.380 | be in the place where that happens. So if we can remotely sense what's going on somewhere

01:15:29.940 | else in the universe or some other part of our planet, and we can remotely pick up those signals

01:15:34.560 | and view them or experience them, you don't need to physically be there. And then secondly,

01:15:38.940 | all this, sorry, all this via strap on.

01:15:40.920 | Okay, yeah. And then secondly, I shouldn't use the term. And then secondly, if you could print

01:15:46.200 | it, you can wearable. Yeah. But think about if you guys ever watched the TV show Star Trek Next

01:15:51.300 | Generation, which I would guess maybe one of the replicator or the replicator or the holodeck,

01:15:55.620 | and you could walk in there number three on my list of Star Trek series, if you walk in and you

01:16:00.600 | could literally recreate the physical space that you want to be in to accomplish anything, the

01:16:04.860 | holodeck and then you could print anything, why would you use all the energy and all of this work

01:16:09.360 | to transport physical matter from one part of the universe to the other when all matter is

01:16:14.400 | transmutable. And the only thing that differentiates things is the photons coming

01:16:18.120 | off that matter, which is just to sense it. So if you can sense things

01:16:21.120 | remotely, while you're physically here, I go through the trouble, why go through the trouble.

01:16:25.080 | And so the argument is the same reason that we go to Hawaii and not just watch a movie.

01:16:29.820 | No, because we don't have enough of the sensing capabilities today to truly recreate being in

01:16:35.280 | Hawaii. But imagine if we did, and we are very much on the path to doing that. And in 2300 years,

01:16:40.980 | we have the ability to physically recreate what it's like for our body to be in Hawaii in every

01:16:45.300 | form, smell, taste, color, everything about being there physically in our body experiences it, why

01:16:50.460 | the hell would you fly?

01:16:50.940 | You could fly to Hawaii, you could meet people, you could socialize. So in a world,

01:16:54.600 | short Hawaii in a world where that technology exists, which could, by the way, be neural link,

01:16:58.440 | right, where you can, you know, put these signals directly into the brain, etc. Moving physical

01:17:02.520 | matter from one part of the universe to the other makes zero sense. All matter is transmutable,

01:17:06.540 | you can convert one atom to another using technology locally. So you wouldn't do that. And

01:17:11.100 | so that's the premise of 2001 is that you've got these local communication pods that just transmit

01:17:16.080 | information from different parts of the universe, you don't need to physically transport yourself. So

01:17:20.760 | that's the the macro kind of argument against this notion that UFOs or aliens are in a physical

01:17:26.460 | spacecraft visiting, it's so old school technology, that it makes no sense. It's like saying, you know,

01:17:31.680 | oh, my gosh, all these people are coming over to the United States on horses from Europe,

01:17:35.340 | you know, like it just like, why would they do that? Why would they use a horse? So So I think

01:17:40.200 | that's the argument against UFOs being aliens and spacecraft. Now, is there a really cool technology

01:17:44.940 | that has this advanced capability, and there are these crafts that are in our sky, and someone has

01:17:50.160 | that technology, maybe. But I'm not sure about this general pieces. I mean, you blew my mind with

01:17:55.980 | that. So yeah, sacks. I you obviously don't care. So we have no way for this to increase the IRR of

01:18:06.180 | my fund, or to get me another home. Beep, boop, bop, boop on planet Earth. Why would I want to go?

01:18:12.660 | I just somehow feel like if they're really UFOs, it'd be like an even bigger story. Like we'd all

01:18:18.000 | know it. You know, it's not going to be some,

01:18:19.980 | like weird friends conspiracy thing. Here's the here's the thing. I do not care about emotions.

01:18:25.200 | I can tell you why this is bullshit. The emotions of others.

01:18:28.440 | Every single photograph that's been taken in the last year is absolutely recognizably better than

01:18:37.320 | the one taken 10 years ago. And every single photo or video of these aliens looks like it was shot in

01:18:44.520 | a on a camera from 1950 on film that was left in somebody's basement. And meanwhile, pick, meanwhile,

01:18:49.800 | Pixar movies can recreate literally the ocean. We're recording this on Zoom. Why can't I get me

01:18:55.500 | a clear shot? There's not one clear shot of this. Show me the alien in 4K high def. And then I'll

01:19:01.200 | believe it. I mean, if you do, it's probably a camera by the engine and we can see the engine.

01:19:07.140 | Like why can't we get a shot of the until then I will be traveling between my homes. I am living

01:19:14.100 | my best life not in San Francisco. We will get Chessa Boudin recalled.

01:19:17.940 | I will tell you, Sax, I don't think you need to harp on the Chessa point anymore because I don't

01:19:22.560 | hear anyone making the case on the other side anymore. Dustin Moskovitz. He does it publicly.

01:19:27.600 | Yes. What from a sauna? Yes. Yes. Nick pull up the tweet. So, you know, I've been basically because

01:19:33.960 | look there. Oh, we fired him up. Here we go. No, let me get this in and then we can take off. So

01:19:38.520 | insert quarter here.

01:19:40.560 | No, look, we're taking all this heat from these stupid reporters are talking about our donations,

01:19:54.480 | you know, like asking what are we up to? Look, we're very public about what we're up to. But

01:20:00.420 | this is a terrible tweet from Dustin. There there have been these tech billionaires,

01:20:04.980 | Dustin Moskovitz, Reed Hastings and Mike Krieger, and they've been donating money.

01:20:10.500 | To what?

01:20:11.640 | To Chessa Boudin and Gascona.

01:20:14.100 | That's disappointing.

01:20:15.240 | Yeah, horrible. So I asked, I just said, why are you donating money to this insanity? And

01:20:20.100 | Dustin's still defending it. And then he said, I'm going to mute you now because you know,

01:20:25.440 | you didn't want to you didn't want to wait.

01:20:27.180 | Just in fairness, let me pull this up. Dustin's quote is I live in the city and I'm not going

01:20:31.500 | anywhere. Crime happens to me too. Trust me. We write extensively about why of our grants here.

01:20:36.720 | You know, here's the thing. I think Dustin Reed Hastings,

01:20:39.840 | and their spouses are very involved in criminal justice reform. And what we have to do is give

01:20:47.040 | somebody like Dustin or Reed Hastings the benefit of the doubt here and say, we understand your

01:20:51.000 | donations were meaningful to you. And you wanted to maybe lower the incarceration of black people

01:20:58.500 | in jail for crimes that were not violent. And we agree. Let's parse this conversation.

01:21:05.580 | No, I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt. Let me explain why. Okay, so Reed, so this is a

01:21:09.780 | good example. This Reed Hastings thing is a good example. By the way, just today it was announced

01:21:13.740 | that he donated 3 million to Gavin Newsom. In any event, so, you know, he keep he look, he's on that

01:21:20.700 | side of the spectrum. By the way, there's a little backstory there. I don't know if you guys remember

01:21:24.000 | when there was pressure on the Facebook board to kick Peter Thiel off. But back in 2016, it was

01:21:30.240 | Reed Hastings. That was from Reed Hastings. Okay, so the guy is very close minded.

01:21:34.200 | I think it's his wife is actually handling this.

01:21:36.360 | Well, he was the board member who pushed to get Peter off because he couldn't

01:21:39.720 | handle the fact that there might be another board member who disagree with him politically.

01:21:43.980 | So it's a very close minded point of view. But let's take let's take this example of crime in

01:21:49.080 | LA. Okay, so we had this election, where George Gascon, who was a failure as DA in San Francisco,

01:21:56.220 | he goes down to LA and runs against the the veteran DA down there, Jackie Lacey,

01:22:02.640 | who happens to be a black woman, a veteran seasoned DA, competent, nobody had a problem with

01:22:09.660 | her. I think she's a Democrat. Okay, it's not like this is a right wing person. And so George

01:22:14.220 | Gascon basically fails his way out of San Francisco goes down to LA. And he basically

01:22:19.260 | dislodges her from that seat with $15 million, an unprecedented amount spent in a DA election.

01:22:25.620 | Where did that money come from? 5 million came from source 5 million came for Reed Hastings.

01:22:30.300 | 5 million came from BLM. Now, you know, in any other context, the idea that you're going to fire

01:22:39.600 | a talented, competent seasoned veteran black woman and replace her with an incompetent white male,

01:22:46.680 | that would be seen as institutional racism. But nobody complained about it at all. But it's

01:22:52.740 | outrageous. And what is the most charitable was behind that? What is the most charitable

01:22:58.560 | view of why they're supporting Gascon and Chesa?

01:23:03.420 | Well, there's this decarcerationist agenda. And so yes, you're right that they see

01:23:09.540 | mass incarceration as a problem. But the problem is it is but the solution is not mass decarceration

01:23:15.480 | that we need something in between. And the problem with Gascon and Chesa Boudin, they just want to let

01:23:21.540 | everybody out. They don't want to put me on. I don't want to add anybody. So I think if their

01:23:25.260 | agenda is to lower the number adding people is against that. There are people who need to go to

01:23:30.120 | jail murderers to go to jail people dying every day in San Francisco by at the hands of repeat offenders

01:23:39.480 | Chesa Boudin has made the decision to let them out of jail even though they should be in jail. These

01:23:45.180 | are dangerous violent felons. The problem with this is I think Chamath I would like to get your

01:23:49.980 | feedback on it is, you know, you when a person gives these kind of donations and they make it

01:23:55.320 | their public persona, and it doesn't go well, how does one you know, I don't know disentangle or

01:24:06.420 | reconcile they made a bet.

01:24:08.580 | Yeah,

01:24:08.880 | yeah.

01:24:09.420 | That had a bad outcome, because this is obviously a bad outcome. You don't want the city to devolve

01:24:15.960 | into chaos.

01:24:16.500 | I don't particularly care about San Francisco. And I think the two of you guys can talk about it on

01:24:23.340 | Colin.

01:24:23.640 | No, I'm done. I'm going to get rid of my place in the city.

01:24:25.380 | On Colin, but I couldn't care less about how that city is going to be.

01:24:28.560 | I think I'm done too.

01:24:28.860 | Any closing thoughts, Freiburg?

01:24:30.120 | I got nothing to say.

01:24:32.280 | Okay, I want to add just one thing. Look, so I care because I live there. But this trend,

01:24:36.780 | this is not just San Francisco, this whole idea of these

01:24:39.360 | radical decarcerationists, they are running for DA in every major city. This is going to

01:24:45.240 | be a national trend. And they're going to cause a lot of carnage, a lot of death and destruction

01:24:51.480 | until the people realize and there will inevitably be a backlash to this. And hopefully just not too

01:24:58.680 | many people die.

01:24:59.280 | Fair enough. I don't want to be too flippant. My point is, it's a really important debate. It's

01:25:03.420 | going to happen in every city. But folks need to get engaged in those cities and do something about

01:25:08.700 | it.

01:25:09.300 | If you want to hear the argument of why this is happening, you can go watch the TED Talk on

01:25:14.520 | YouTube of Adam Foss, F-O-S-S. He was the original proponent of the DAs coming in to drive the

01:25:21.780 | decarceration movements. And I just think it's important to be informed of the other perspective

01:25:28.620 | in evaluating where folks are coming from that are proponents for this movement.

01:25:33.720 | Yeah, I'm trying to be charitable towards their position, Dustin and Reid, if you want to come on

01:25:39.240 | the pod and be a bestie guestie, I guess, maybe.

01:25:41.700 | Dustin, Dustin responded to me and said, Listen, we don't know what the counterfactual is. If we

01:25:45.480 | had a more aggressive DA. That was his argument. We don't know the counterfactual.

01:25:48.300 | That's ridiculous.

01:25:48.660 | So I, of course, so I posted a list of people of innocent victims who've died. Okay. Because

01:25:55.560 | directly because of a decision that Chase Abudin made. That's your counterfactual.

01:26:00.660 | Yeah.

01:26:01.200 | That's your counterfactual.

01:26:02.520 | All right. Listen, it's been an amazing episode and no plugs, no ads, no nothing.

01:26:09.180 | If you like the show, great. And if you don't like it, how the hell did you make it to the minute 75

01:26:14.520 | for the Queen of Quinoa, the dictator himself, Jamali Papatia.

01:26:19.320 | I'm having steak tonight.

01:26:20.760 | He's having steak tonight.

01:26:22.140 | If you're vegan, David Friedberg, you're not invited to steak tonight.

01:26:27.540 | I'm having beers tonight. I'm having beers tonight.

01:26:30.240 | You're having beers and roasted eggplant tonight. You've never eaten fish in your life. Never had

01:26:36.780 | sushi and sacks.

01:26:38.400 | By the way, that's true. I don't know if you're a fan of the show.

01:26:39.120 | I don't know if our listeners are eating tonight.

01:26:41.580 | Sacks, can we talk about Sacks' health? Where's your first, second and third dinner tonight?

01:26:46.680 | I'm on a seafood diet. I see the food and I eat it.

01:26:49.740 | Sacks, if we take out your Postmates/Race account right now, how long is it going to be?

01:26:57.300 | Eat it out. Eat it out.

01:26:59.160 | What's happening? What's happening?

01:27:00.540 | Oh my gosh. How do I get to be the fat guy on this pod? I don't get it. This is not,

01:27:05.700 | this can't be happening.

01:27:06.540 | I just bought my third machine.

01:27:07.380 | This can't be happening.

01:27:08.580 | It's happening.

01:27:09.060 | This is your Twilight Zone episode. I just bought, I decided I'm going twice a week with

01:27:14.100 | the trainer and I just bought the Hydro. So now I have Tonal, Peloton Tread and I got the Hydro.

01:27:20.640 | I'm going from smart machine to smart machine. Hey, are you spack?

01:27:24.000 | Oh, I got to . Oh, good question.

01:27:26.280 | No, no, no.

01:27:28.560 | No comment?

01:27:29.280 | No comment.

01:27:29.640 | Okay. Sorry. I just saw some tweet.

01:27:31.980 | People have other things to do.

01:27:33.720 | Guys, I got to call.

01:27:34.500 | We know you don't.

01:27:35.040 | We got things to do.

01:27:35.640 | I got to go.

01:27:36.120 | All right, everybody. Love you besties. Love you, Sasha.

01:27:38.520 | Love you. Love you.

01:27:39.000 | Yeah. Get a salad. Okay. We love you. Bye besties. Eat a salad.

01:27:43.620 | And of course the dictator here.

01:27:45.300 | The absolute dictator.

01:27:46.500 | The dictator himself.

01:27:47.520 | The spack master himself.

01:27:49.860 | The dictator.

01:27:51.420 | Shout out to all my haters.

01:27:54.660 | I write a minimum of a hundred million dollars personal.

01:27:56.700 | Spack daddy, you respect this paper.

01:27:58.920 | I get thousands of millions confused.

01:28:00.240 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:01.140 | Let the court side when you see me after four years.

01:28:03.420 | It's hard to make good investments. It's hard to build a company.

01:28:05.820 | Big waves and I hit the gym later.

01:28:08.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:10.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:12.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:14.940 | I am a complete byproduct of a social safety net.

01:28:18.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:20.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:22.940 | And at some point you have to figure out whether you actually want your kids to have asthma or not.

01:28:26.940 | Or you care more about the land gross.

01:28:28.940 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:30.940 | I'm king of the spack.

01:28:32.940 | People take money is free.

01:28:34.940 | And it's not.

01:28:36.940 | I pick up the slack.

01:28:38.880 | I'm just frank.

01:28:39.880 | But it's fine.

01:28:40.880 | I'm secure in the bed.

01:28:41.880 | I get thousands of millions confused.

01:28:43.880 | I get thousands of millions confused.

01:28:45.880 | I get thousands of millions confused.

01:28:47.880 | Firing on all cylinders.

01:28:48.880 | Shout out to all my haters.

01:28:50.880 | Ultra-launched billionaire has bought the French Monde.

01:28:53.880 | Spack daddy, you respect this paper.

01:28:55.880 | I just want to be called king.

01:28:56.880 | I'm the dictator.

01:28:57.880 | Let the court side when you see me after four years.

01:28:59.880 | The little guy getting run over.

01:29:01.880 | I just can't stand that.

01:29:02.880 | Big waves and I hit the gym later.

01:29:04.880 | I'm the dictator.

01:29:05.880 | Hang up, hang up, hang up.

01:29:07.880 | I'm the dictator.

01:29:09.880 | I'm the dictator.

01:29:10.880 | It's hard to make it.

01:29:11.880 | It's hard to make good investments.

01:29:12.880 | It's hard to build a company.

01:29:13.880 | Because if it was easy, everybody would be doing it all the time.

01:29:19.880 | This one man for yourself, it's all about you.

01:29:21.880 | You can figure it out.

01:29:23.880 | The rugged individualism.

01:29:25.880 | That's just not realistic.

01:29:27.880 | Anybody who wants, who's listening to this, who wants to go to the French Laundry, stay

01:29:31.880 | at home, pour a bunch of salt on whatever you're going to eat.

01:29:35.880 | Okay?

01:29:37.140 | Melt a stick of butter in the microwave?

01:29:38.400 | Melt a stick of butter in the microwave, drink it,

01:29:40.180 | and then basically take it for $1,500,

01:29:42.400 | light it on fire, and you've been to the punchline.

01:29:44.640 | It's hard to make it.

01:29:51.480 | It's hard to make good investments.

01:29:52.740 | It's hard to build a company.

01:29:53.780 | Because if it was easy,

01:29:55.140 | everybody would be doing it all the time.

01:29:56.800 | This one man for yourself, it's all about you.

01:30:01.640 | You can figure it out.

01:30:02.640 | The rugged individualism, that's just not realistic.

01:30:06.540 | It's a real joke.

01:30:07.700 | Bye!

01:30:08.200 | you

E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more

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