E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps

00:00:00.000 | You're seeing now the fresh summer collection of Loro Piana.

00:00:03.500 | This, Jason, is the thin summer gilet.

00:00:07.240 | Okay, beautiful cashmere.

00:00:09.280 | It's called like the king's cashmere or something.

00:00:12.640 | And then this is called a lovely yellow boating sweater.

00:00:16.620 | Anyways, I took sacks to my tailor and I took them to Loro Piana.

00:00:21.040 | And then at some point I just fucking lost them and then I haven't seen them since.

00:00:24.660 | You took them to your tailor and to Loro Piana.

00:00:28.240 | And to Loro Piana, yeah.

00:00:29.720 | Wow, great that the show remains accessible to the every man and woman.

00:00:34.760 | There's sacks.

00:00:35.480 | Fuck yeah.

00:00:39.520 | Oh, look at you two.

00:00:45.060 | It's like twins.

00:00:45.920 | Oh my God, it's so perfect.

00:00:48.820 | Italy, you and the Sri Lankans too.

00:00:50.960 | Wow.

00:00:51.500 | Oh my God.

00:00:53.340 | Did you guys have an announcement today?

00:00:55.200 | Third announcement.

00:00:56.860 | Good to see everybody's focused on what matters.

00:00:59.440 | Okay, everybody, welcome to All In episode 86,

00:01:02.300 | End of the World, except for these two douchebags.

00:01:04.960 | We thought it'd be really funny to find the exact same outfit at Loro Piana.

00:01:08.840 | I feel fully styled.

00:01:11.920 | What a great look.

00:01:13.000 | You guys look so good.

00:01:15.460 | It's like dumb and dumber in Italy.

00:01:17.660 | Rain Man, David Sack.

00:01:24.960 | And it's said...

00:01:28.660 | We open source.

00:01:29.400 | It's a fan.

00:01:30.060 | And they've just gone crazy with it.

00:01:31.680 | Love you guys.

00:01:32.320 | Nice.

00:01:32.540 | Queen of Kinwa.

00:01:34.020 | I'm going all in.

00:01:35.820 | Hey, everybody, welcome to episode 86 of the All In podcast.

00:01:39.980 | We're not dead yet.

00:01:40.940 | Still publishing with us from Italy, the Rain Man and the Dictator in matching outfits.

00:01:48.780 | Gentlemen, how is Italy?

00:01:51.000 | It's fantastic.

00:01:52.260 | And also with us, the Sultan of Science himself, David Friedberg from an undisclosed conference.

00:01:59.120 | And we're going to be talking about the

00:02:22.280 | key quote,

00:02:22.880 | significant risk that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question

00:02:28.840 | the resolve of the Fed.

00:02:30.200 | So they went from transient to now fearing entrenched.

00:02:33.620 | Jobs have slipped a little bit.

00:02:36.000 | This is something we've been talking about.

00:02:37.380 | But just to give some context here, we're still a historic number of job openings.

00:02:43.380 | We peaked in March, 11.9 million.

00:02:45.980 | In May, we dropped down to 11.3.

00:02:49.480 | And 11 million for six straight months.

00:02:53.340 | It's just extraordinary.

00:02:54.100 | If you look at this Fred chart, it's just astounding to think that this,

00:02:58.800 | many jobs are available, two for one in the United States.

00:03:01.760 | There are two jobs available for every one person who needs a job.

00:03:05.280 | And this, they're just absolutely stunning.

00:03:10.380 | If you look at the,

00:03:11.080 | what do you think this is a precursor to?

00:03:13.500 | Dropping down dramatically in the white collar sector is what the data is showing.

00:03:19.740 | What is major wage or major wage inflation?

00:03:23.120 | I mean,

00:03:23.760 | yeah,

00:03:24.620 | that work clearly has to be done.

00:03:27.300 | And if you lay people off,

00:03:28.520 | the number of unemployed will go up.

00:03:32.600 | But at the end of the day,

00:03:34.100 | the thing that we know here is we have a structural unemployment problem.

00:03:38.100 | As you said,

00:03:38.800 | two openings for every person,

00:03:40.160 | which means those openings aren't paying enough for people to leave the sidelines and get on the field.

00:03:45.320 | Yeah.

00:03:45.860 | Or,

00:03:46.360 | or they've been incentivized to,

00:03:48.400 | to be on the sidelines.

00:03:50.060 | Exactly.

00:03:50.840 | So these,

00:03:52.020 | these job openings might actually be indicative of the opposite of what the Fed is telling us,

00:03:58.400 | right?

00:03:58.640 | The Fed wants us to believe that they can just keep jacking up rates and then we're not going to go into recession because we have all these open job recs.

00:04:05.400 | But what if we should see the labor market as really two separate markets?

00:04:09.020 | They're sort of white collar professionals and you're seeing all of these tech companies that were involved in slam on the brakes really quickly right now.

00:04:18.380 | Yep.

00:04:18.780 | So we're going to see greater unemployment there.

00:04:21.020 | And then on the blue collar side,

00:04:23.400 | um,

00:04:23.800 | you have this issue of record low labor participation.

00:04:28.280 | And so you still have inflation there because they can't fill all the jobs because there's all these like warped incentives around that.

00:04:35.780 | There are two,

00:04:36.620 | just put a number on it.

00:04:37.520 | Sacks were 10% off the peak in terms of participation.

00:04:41.100 | And if those folks would participate,

00:04:43.160 | it would really fill a lot of these jobs that would increase the production of goods and services that might take some of the pressure off inflation.

00:04:49.400 | And it would also increase monetary velocity,

00:04:51.760 | right?

00:04:51.960 | Sacks people would spend the money they make,

00:04:53.840 | which then get us out of this mess.

00:04:55.200 | Possibly.

00:04:55.720 | I think part of the problem with the Fed's approach here is that,

00:04:58.160 | it's assuming that if they just keep jacking up rates that will,

00:05:01.340 | that will reduce demand and that will stop or slow down inflation.

00:05:04.540 | And there's some truth to that.

00:05:05.720 | However,

00:05:06.220 | I don't think this inflation is purely a problem of excess demand.

00:05:10.120 | I think there's also a supply problem,

00:05:12.400 | meaning that not enough goods and services are being produced.

00:05:15.200 | And the commodity is the inputs that we need to the production of goods and services.

00:05:19.660 | Those prices are increased.

00:05:22.400 | They've been inflated and that started well before the Ukraine war.

00:05:25.840 | But I think the Ukraine war has now exacerbated.

00:05:28.040 | This problem with respect to energy and food.

00:05:30.200 | If you had seven minutes for your over under for sacks to mention Ukraine,

00:05:34.660 | you took the under you want.

00:05:35.760 | I'm just mentioning it as,

00:05:36.560 | as a exacerbator of the situation.

00:05:39.600 | I think that's actually really good framing that it's an exacerbator.

00:05:42.900 | This is a really hard with this.

00:05:44.860 | Yeah.

00:05:45.560 | So if you look at the quits,

00:05:48.260 | let me just give you the quits number because this is really interesting.

00:05:50.720 | These are people who are obviously quitting jobs.

00:05:52.300 | It's still at a record high.

00:05:54.200 | So this concept of the great resignation,

00:05:55.980 | we're still having over 4 million people.

00:05:57.920 | Quit their jobs every month.

00:05:59.920 | Free pandemic quits averaged under 3 million a month.

00:06:03.700 | And if you look at that chart,

00:06:04.900 | it's just staggering to think that in an economy that's going down,

00:06:09.780 | people are still quitting.

00:06:10.580 | Now, what is that indicative of?

00:06:11.960 | It's indicative of people believing that they can get another job.

00:06:15.700 | You don't quit your job if you don't think you can get another one or you have some savings available.

00:06:19.760 | You want to Yolo,

00:06:20.680 | maybe,

00:06:21.760 | you know,

00:06:22.180 | um,

00:06:23.480 | you know,

00:06:24.520 | spend a little free time going on vacation or there's a new economy.

00:06:27.800 | Emerging,

00:06:28.400 | right?

00:06:28.680 | I mean,

00:06:28.940 | one of the cases to be made is that the pandemic and the stimulus that followed created a staggering short shift in the types of jobs and the types of businesses that people,

00:06:41.960 | um,

00:06:42.480 | you know,

00:06:42.760 | used to make money.

00:06:43.600 | And,

00:06:44.600 | you know,

00:06:44.980 | a lot of people were able to shift to work from home.

00:06:47.300 | And when you shift to work from home,

00:06:48.900 | you have more flexibility and freedom to choose other jobs that you can now do from home.

00:06:52.680 | And people don't want to work in restaurants.

00:06:54.800 | They don't want to work in fast food.

00:06:56.360 | And if they can find another job,

00:06:57.620 | uh,

00:06:58.460 | a gig like,

00:06:59.360 | or services like,

00:07:00.320 | or on demand type job where they can have more freedom and flexibility and more earnings in their life,

00:07:04.400 | they'll make that choice.

00:07:05.780 | And this happened so quickly because of the shutdown,

00:07:08.960 | the lockdowns,

00:07:09.680 | and then the stimulus,

00:07:10.460 | the trillion dollars or $2 trillion that poured in,

00:07:12.620 | it created all these new opportunities and all these new incentives for new types of work.

00:07:17.720 | And the fact is the old economy,

00:07:19.580 | the old businesses,

00:07:20.420 | all the fast food restaurants and the coffee shops,

00:07:23.300 | they're sitting with half employment and they can't fill the jobs because that's,

00:07:26.840 | you know,

00:07:27.440 | that that used to be a job that there was demand for.

00:07:30.020 | It's perfectly not the case,

00:07:31.400 | you know?

00:07:31.940 | And I think that,

00:07:32.440 | and I think that's what's,

00:07:34.100 | by the way,

00:07:34.600 | I don't,

00:07:35.100 | I don't know if that necessarily reverts in the near term,

00:07:37.700 | because I do think that there's been a substantial,

00:07:39.620 | almost permanent change in some of these sectors of the economy,

00:07:42.440 | not necessarily all some will revert,

00:07:44.480 | but it leaves big gaps in parts of the economy and maybe fast food restaurants are not going to be as cheap as they used to be.

00:07:49.940 | Because in order to get people to work there,

00:07:51.380 | you got to charge more.

00:07:52.220 | And there's other parts of the economy like services and selling stuff on Etsy and whatnot that are working for people.

00:07:57.260 | Let me just put a number on that and then hand it off to you,

00:07:59.720 | Saks,

00:08:00.040 | to just put a number on that.

00:08:00.980 | The jobs that fell the most white collar off 325,000 and manufacturing 208,000,

00:08:06.560 | the jobs that are increasing the most hospitality and retail.

00:08:10.040 | So exactly to your point,

00:08:11.700 | people feel more options.

00:08:12.920 | This whole thing was accelerated during the pandemic,

00:08:15.140 | Saks.

00:08:15.860 | Well,

00:08:16.980 | the question I want to ask Freeburg is,

00:08:18.260 | do you actually think that these new options of work from home and remote work have actually made the economy more productive?

00:08:27.080 | It seems to me that obviously employees,

00:08:29.480 | if you give them the freedom over the decision of their trade off between work and leisure and let them decide.

00:08:36.860 | It's made the economy more expensive.

00:08:38.780 | How so?

00:08:40.640 | If you take a big step back to the day before the lockdowns started,

00:08:46.340 | we had a normal functioning and economy that was growing by call it 2% a year.

00:08:51.680 | And the minute that we enforce these lockdowns,

00:08:56.180 | I actually,

00:08:56.900 | I actually think what we did was we started a supply side recession.

00:09:00.800 | It's what Saks said earlier.

00:09:02.360 | So what does that mean?

00:09:03.440 | Let's just say you're a factory and you make wheels.

00:09:07.580 | Okay,

00:09:08.000 | just make something really simple.

00:09:09.200 | You were growing at 2% a year.

00:09:11.600 | Everything seemed hunky dory.

00:09:13.040 | You had employees.

00:09:13.880 | It was fine.

00:09:14.660 | You used to sell your products,

00:09:15.920 | make 10,

00:09:16.400 | 15% profits.

00:09:17.360 | Everything was fine.

00:09:18.140 | And then the day after the government said,

00:09:20.960 | you need to shut your factory down because we can't have people spending too much time close together because we

00:09:26.720 | need to get a handle on this pandemic.

00:09:28.100 | Okay,

00:09:28.820 | so you shut it down.

00:09:29.600 | And then for the next 12 or 18 months,

00:09:31.940 | what happens?

00:09:33.140 | That stuff sits idle.

00:09:34.640 | These people that used to work for you get two and a half trillion dollars put into their bank accounts.

00:09:41.060 | They spend their time doing other things.

00:09:44.060 | And then all of a sudden people say,

00:09:46.340 | okay,

00:09:46.880 | it's time to start the factory up again.

00:09:48.440 | People want to buy wheels.

00:09:49.580 | And now all of a sudden you find that because everything all around the world was shut down,

00:09:54.380 | there's no rubber to make the wheels.

00:09:56.540 | There's no steel to make the axle.

00:09:58.880 | There's no people to put them all together.

00:10:01.040 | And so what happens?

00:10:02.600 | Well,

00:10:03.740 | prices go up because again,

00:10:05.840 | you gave everybody else two and a half trillion dollars.

00:10:08.780 | So they're like,

00:10:09.200 | well,

00:10:09.380 | I used to pay a dollar for your wheel.

00:10:10.820 | I'm willing to pay you $2 now.

00:10:12.200 | Just make the wheel,

00:10:13.040 | give it to me before you give it to somebody else.

00:10:14.660 | So that is like the classic definition of a supply side recession.

00:10:19.160 | There's another piece of that too,

00:10:21.260 | John.

00:10:21.620 | And sorry,

00:10:21.980 | just to finish the point.

00:10:22.640 | And the Fed basically confirmed this in the minutes that they just released.

00:10:26.360 | Today,

00:10:26.900 | Jason,

00:10:27.200 | can you just read the quote that you had in the,

00:10:29.180 | in the notes?

00:10:30.140 | Well,

00:10:30.560 | the,

00:10:30.740 | the one up top,

00:10:31.460 | a significant risk that elevated inflation should become entrenched.

00:10:34.220 | If the public begins to question the resolve,

00:10:35.720 | their resolve.

00:10:36.560 | I think the point is that,

00:10:37.520 | you know,

00:10:37.820 | we were kind of in a supply side recession and now by raising rates to some crazy amount,

00:10:43.460 | the end of which we were still not sure about may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand side recession.

00:10:50.540 | And so I don't,

00:10:51.860 | I don't know that we've lived in a modern point in time where both of us,

00:10:56.180 | both things have been true,

00:10:57.440 | right?

00:10:57.920 | There's been a principle of macro economics that you're,

00:11:00.320 | everybody's always kind of debating.

00:11:01.580 | Is this a supply side issue?

00:11:03.140 | It is a demand side issue.

00:11:04.280 | We know that in COVID,

00:11:05.720 | it was a supply side issue.

00:11:06.740 | We took all the supply out of the market.

00:11:08.540 | And now we're trying to figure out when we exhaust,

00:11:12.260 | you know,

00:11:13.100 | all of the money we've given people and we destroy demand and take the incentives for demand to go away,

00:11:18.620 | right?

00:11:18.920 | Consumer confidence is now starting to turn.

00:11:21.080 | What happens then?

00:11:22.820 | Well,

00:11:23.180 | we're going to figure that out in the next six or nine months.

00:11:25.040 | But the thing is,

00:11:25.640 | you have both that are true.

00:11:27.140 | It's not as if the supply side of the economy has been fixed.

00:11:30.560 | It's not as if everybody is running at a hundred percent capacity.

00:11:33.740 | It's not as if all the supply chain issues have been worked out.

00:11:36.920 | Yep.

00:11:37.520 | So I don't know.

00:11:38.360 | I just think it's a very perfect complicated situation.

00:11:40.460 | Yeah.

00:11:40.940 | It's a perfect pivot pivot.

00:11:42.320 | And just to build on that,

00:11:43.820 | um,

00:11:44.360 | Chamath,

00:11:44.960 | the downstream effects,

00:11:46.220 | we always talk about the second order,

00:11:47.420 | uh,

00:11:47.900 | impact because people are not going to work anymore.

00:11:50.300 | Downtown areas are dying.

00:11:53.000 | So office space,

00:11:54.140 | commercial,

00:11:54.740 | uh,

00:11:55.100 | real estate,

00:11:55.700 | uh,

00:11:56.160 | SACs,

00:11:56.480 | you're in that.

00:11:56.960 | So you can comment on what's happening and then restaurants and commuting and all the stuff that was happening downtown,

00:12:03.940 | San Francisco is downtown.

00:12:05.180 | Let Maryland and breed had a press conference and she's been tweeting,

00:12:07.880 | Hey,

00:12:08.000 | we have to revitalize,

00:12:09.140 | you know,

00:12:09.960 | Soma in San Francisco.

00:12:11.120 | That's never going to happen.

00:12:12.340 | That that's off the table.

00:12:13.540 | It's like Biden tweeting.

00:12:14.780 | We got to drop gas prices.

00:12:16.160 | Yeah.

00:12:16.640 | I mean,

00:12:17.060 | we have complete incompetence,

00:12:18.540 | but we'll get to politics.

00:12:19.480 | Chamath,

00:12:19.880 | uh,

00:12:20.240 | SACs.

00:12:20.600 | Don't worry.

00:12:21.140 | We've got plenty of politics.

00:12:22.160 | I'm just seeing it.

00:12:22.880 | I'm just,

00:12:23.280 | so there's your flop,

00:12:24.800 | gentlemen,

00:12:25.340 | San Francisco real estate.

00:12:26.900 | I,

00:12:27.080 | I,

00:12:27.200 | I read an amazing statistic today from,

00:12:29.660 | uh,

00:12:29.960 | like one of the major brokers,

00:12:31.280 | uh,

00:12:32.420 | they,

00:12:32.960 | they said that by the end of the year,

00:12:34.920 | they're expecting 30 million square feet of office vacancy,

00:12:38.540 | 30 million in San Francisco.

00:12:40.300 | By the end of the year,

00:12:41.180 | San Francisco is tiny by the way,

00:12:43.160 | because of sub leases and,

00:12:45.380 | uh,

00:12:45.620 | and then tenants rolling off.

00:12:47.660 | So the first thing I did is I tried to Google what's the total square footage in San Francisco.

00:12:52.400 | And I think it's about 75 million of office.

00:12:54.760 | Yeah.

00:12:54.780 | So you're talking about 40% vacancy by the end of the year.

00:12:58.740 | I've never heard of such a thing.

00:12:59.880 | 40%.

00:13:00.780 | Let's be clear.

00:13:01.820 | San Francisco is fairly unique and a bit of an outlier in the circumstance because so much of it was,

00:13:06.720 | you know,

00:13:07.100 | tech heavy and so much of it went remote and the city and it all got crime.

00:13:11.940 | But like generally that's not the case.

00:13:13.320 | I mean,

00:13:13.600 | you know,

00:13:13.820 | New York is apparently still pretty stable,

00:13:15.460 | right?

00:13:15.780 | And Miami is obviously doing well,

00:13:17.500 | LA often.

00:13:18.660 | Here's the piece of it that people aren't really thinking about,

00:13:20.960 | which is the only reason it's stable is because,

00:13:24.740 | is tenants sign up for long term leases.

00:13:26.900 | And this is why it turns out that we work with a pretty bad business model is because if you're,

00:13:31.160 | if all your leases are month to month and you hit a recession,

00:13:33.920 | your revenue gets whammied.

00:13:35.540 | This is why landlords like longterm leases with credit worthy tenants.

00:13:40.340 | They signed seven years,

00:13:41.660 | 10 years and so on letters of credit,

00:13:43.220 | right?

00:13:43.580 | Put a year.

00:13:43.980 | What that means though,

00:13:44.840 | is that as these tenants start to roll their leases roll over the next few years,

00:13:51.260 | they don't need as much space because they've either gone remote or they're,

00:13:54.700 | they're like hybrid now.

00:13:56.080 | And so they're thinking of their office less as a headquarters,

00:13:59.160 | whichever one needs to go to and more as like a coworking space,

00:14:02.460 | their employees occasionally go to.

00:14:04.240 | So they're all reducing their footprints.

00:14:06.100 | This is why San Francisco keeps increasing its vacancy is that as more and more of these leases roll,

00:14:12.220 | there's just no need.

00:14:13.580 | They don't need as much space.

00:14:14.580 | So they're also downsizing.

00:14:16.720 | Now here's the problem.

00:14:18.820 | Here's the problem is that these buildings have debt on them,

00:14:21.640 | right?

00:14:22.040 | And that debt has was called a,

00:14:24.660 | debt service coverage ratio,

00:14:27.060 | a DSCR.

00:14:28.280 | And basically you become a,

00:14:30.820 | you as a building owner become in default on your debt covenants.

00:14:35.060 | If your revenue from the building drops below a certain number,

00:14:38.760 | and here's the problem,

00:14:39.820 | all these new leases that get signed to the extent there are any,

00:14:43.380 | they're going to be at a fraction of what the old leases were because this,

00:14:46.940 | this vacancy is going to create a massively low market clearing price.

00:14:51.340 | Am I right to understand that they're not allowed to sign those leases because

00:14:54.660 | they're under it.

00:14:55.280 | So can the landlord take it as better than nothing or do they are not allowed to take it?

00:14:59.840 | It's not that it's just that the market clearing price is going to be so much lower than their old leases that when they then look at the revenue from the building.

00:15:07.380 | And by the way,

00:15:08.420 | that building is going to have a lot of vacancy on it.

00:15:09.880 | Now they're just not gonna be able to hit their,

00:15:11.960 | their,

00:15:12.320 | their debt service coverage ratio.

00:15:13.700 | So they will be in default.

00:15:14.820 | What that means is I don't understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco,

00:15:18.840 | half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks.

00:15:21.500 | Well,

00:15:21.840 | the banks don't want to own all these buildings.

00:15:23.300 | So they're going to be a fire sale.

00:15:25.160 | Uh,

00:15:25.300 | but I don't know who the buyers are going to be.

00:15:26.840 | I mean,

00:15:27.240 | they just have to convert it,

00:15:28.260 | right?

00:15:28.460 | I mean,

00:15:28.620 | that's the only thing that they got to convert these to residential because we have a housing crisis still.

00:15:32.180 | That's the only way out.

00:15:33.380 | Years.

00:15:33.860 | That takes years and years.

00:15:34.820 | And that's,

00:15:35.180 | that's a repositioning play.

00:15:36.480 | First,

00:15:36.740 | you need the cooperation of the city government,

00:15:38.780 | which isn't going to happen.

00:15:39.560 | Then you need,

00:15:40.100 | then you need developers to come in and have the capital to,

00:15:43.880 | to basically make all those changes.

00:15:45.300 | Again,

00:15:45.920 | it takes a long time,

00:15:46.520 | but,

00:15:46.700 | but think about the systemic risk from that,

00:15:48.540 | right?

00:15:48.780 | If you know that a huge chunk of the real estate in is the

00:15:54.420 | commercial,

00:15:54.580 | commercial real estate in downtown San Francisco,

00:15:56.340 | which used to be blue chip.

00:15:57.820 | I mean the most blue chip,

00:15:59.220 | right?

00:15:59.680 | Yes.

00:15:59.920 | Who are those financial institutions who own those assets because they are now toxic assets and they will be revealed to be toxic assets as soon as the leases roll.

00:16:07.980 | Well,

00:16:08.580 | and then there are debt funds and banks as well.

00:16:12.400 | Right.

00:16:12.700 | And so what are the cascading effects when those shoes start to drop?

00:16:17.140 | Yeah.

00:16:18.040 | Okay.

00:16:18.400 | And so just to put a finer point also on the jobs and that was our flop,

00:16:21.940 | um,

00:16:22.720 | net international migration,

00:16:24.540 | um,

00:16:25.080 | has just plummeted.

00:16:25.980 | We're,

00:16:26.300 | we're well under a million folks,

00:16:28.380 | uh,

00:16:29.280 | coming into the country.

00:16:30.060 | So the obvious solution to our employment issues is to recruit people from other countries,

00:16:34.320 | but let's go to the turn card.

00:16:35.400 | Uh,

00:16:36.120 | yeah,

00:16:36.360 | there it is.

00:16:36.960 | Um,

00:16:37.320 | we have just stopped letting people,

00:16:38.880 | Trump just absolutely closed the borders.

00:16:41.100 | As you can see,

00:16:41.580 | 2016 Biden also is in favor of closing the borders.

00:16:45.240 | It's also sentiment.

00:16:46.440 | It's like,

00:16:46.980 | you know,

00:16:47.760 | America is not the shining people still light on the hill.

00:16:51.700 | It used to be not in the same way.

00:16:53.460 | I know.

00:16:53.820 | And there are,

00:16:54.340 | and there are easily have three or 4 million people coming into the country if we wanted to.

00:16:58.000 | Yeah.

00:16:58.480 | But we have 3 million people have come in just under Biden and illegal migration.

00:17:02.200 | Does that chart count illegal migration?

00:17:04.360 | No,

00:17:04.600 | this is legal.

00:17:05.080 | This is legal.

00:17:05.560 | Okay.

00:17:05.920 | Well,

00:17:06.280 | so just make sure you count that because we've basically had a open border policy.

00:17:10.300 | Yeah.

00:17:10.720 | And imagine if we didn't,

00:17:11.560 | if we didn't allow those workers in what would happen.

00:17:13.420 | Um,

00:17:13.720 | okay,

00:17:14.020 | let's go to the turn card.

00:17:14.980 | Consumer confidence,

00:17:15.820 | conference boards,

00:17:16.480 | consumer confidence index in June fell,

00:17:18.940 | uh,

00:17:19.240 | to 98.7 from 103.2 in May.

00:17:22.060 | Uh,

00:17:23.080 | expectation was a hundred.

00:17:24.140 | So it's under the expectation,

00:17:25.340 | um,

00:17:25.760 | the expectation index.

00:17:27.020 | So when you look at consumer confidence,

00:17:31.400 | there's two,

00:17:32.000 | your confidence in the present situation,

00:17:33.740 | that's the blue on the chart.

00:17:34.820 | And then there's,

00:17:35.960 | uh,

00:17:36.200 | your expectations of the future.

00:17:37.400 | And what you see is a huge divergence there,

00:17:39.680 | uh,

00:17:40.280 | starting to happen.

00:17:41.000 | People are starting to look towards the future as negative,

00:17:43.340 | but they feel pretty good about today.

00:17:45.860 | Um,

00:17:46.520 | and so gentlemen,

00:17:48.200 | what do you think of this chart?

00:17:50.240 | It seems to me like this is sort of akin to what SACS was relaying about that

00:17:53.940 | founder at the CO2 conference,

00:17:55.200 | which is like,

00:17:56.100 | you know,

00:17:56.640 | he thinks everybody else is gonna,

00:17:58.140 | you know,

00:17:58.980 | uh,

00:17:59.340 | roll up their sleeves and,

00:18:00.420 | and buckle down,

00:18:01.140 | but he has no intention of doing it.

00:18:02.820 | I think people,

00:18:03.960 | um,

00:18:04.920 | are roughly the same way.

00:18:06.420 | And I think their behavior is,

00:18:07.860 | well,

00:18:08.520 | you know,

00:18:09.240 | um,

00:18:09.780 | if things are gonna get hard,

00:18:10.980 | I'll deal with it in the future.

00:18:12.000 | But right now I have money in my pocket.

00:18:13.620 | And you know,

00:18:14.700 | if you look at airlines and,

00:18:16.620 | um,

00:18:17.280 | how many people are trying to travel,

00:18:18.840 | if you just look at like the cost of a hotel room,

00:18:20.880 | if you look at what's happening this summer,

00:18:22.320 | it does not seem like people are,

00:18:23.740 | are slowing down or tapping the brakes in any way.

00:18:26.500 | Yeah.

00:18:27.340 | Yeah.

00:18:28.180 | This is where I get concerned about credit because it's not coming from wage

00:18:30.460 | gains.

00:18:31.060 | You know,

00:18:31.660 | the increased cost is there,

00:18:33.400 | the increased income is not.

00:18:35.380 | And,

00:18:35.920 | you know,

00:18:36.340 | we're seeing continued month after month increases in consumer credit

00:18:40.120 | balances.

00:18:41.320 | Um,

00:18:41.860 | and that I think,

00:18:42.640 | you know,

00:18:43.180 | this was the point I made a few episodes ago.

00:18:44.860 | It's,

00:18:45.280 | I don't think people are gonna slow down how they're living and how they're

00:18:47.080 | spending.

00:18:47.920 | It's exactly what the data is showing.

00:18:49.900 | There's an,

00:18:50.500 | there's an inertia.

00:18:51.700 | There's a lifestyle inertia.

00:18:53.540 | I don't know.

00:18:54.380 | I just think after two years of a lockdown,

00:18:56.300 | I do think that people are anxious to reestablish some amount of

00:19:01.100 | normalcy.

00:19:01.700 | And this is really the first summer where everybody writ large can be

00:19:06.200 | out and do the things that they were planning.

00:19:07.880 | It was the head fake summer.

00:19:08.900 | Yeah.

00:19:09.260 | Last year was a little bit of a head fake and look,

00:19:10.880 | you have two years of pent up plans of,

00:19:13.040 | you know,

00:19:13.880 | 50th anniversaries and weddings and all of this stuff that's happening.

00:19:17.360 | Yeah.

00:19:17.840 | And so I think people are really spending money.

00:19:20.120 | And if you look at it,

00:19:21.140 | you know,

00:19:21.740 | the,

00:19:22.040 | the consumer is holding up amazingly,

00:19:23.340 | it's gotta be some combination of jobs,

00:19:25.740 | home prices.

00:19:26.340 | And,

00:19:26.840 | and this inflation,

00:19:27.840 | but this is why I,

00:19:29.040 | there has not been a downtick in demand.

00:19:30.960 | I don't know why everybody thinks that there's been a downtick in demand.

00:19:33.600 | There was an article today.

00:19:34.920 | It's not showing up in the numbers yet.

00:19:36.840 | No,

00:19:37.080 | I think it is.

00:19:37.740 | Then it's just anecdotal and guess very subtle.

00:19:39.840 | Okay,

00:19:40.080 | sure.

00:19:40.320 | It is.

00:19:40.620 | There is a subtle,

00:19:41.520 | I actually disagree with you guys.

00:19:42.600 | I actually think that the economy is pivoting on a dime here and it's,

00:19:47.400 | it's starting to show up subtly in the numbers.

00:19:49.320 | Here's some other data points,

00:19:50.460 | consumer sentiment,

00:19:51.360 | biggest drop in consumer sentiment.

00:19:53.140 | In 40 years,

00:19:54.280 | that was in the last month,

00:19:55.660 | right?

00:19:56.620 | Track Ron track polling.

00:19:58.000 | Only 10% of the country thinks we're on the right track.

00:20:00.820 | If you pull people and ask,

00:20:02.200 | are we in a recession?

00:20:03.280 | Something like close to 60% of the country already thinks we're in a recession.

00:20:07.360 | There's a slight political tent to that.

00:20:09.100 | More Republicans than Democrats think we're in a recession.

00:20:11.320 | However,

00:20:11.860 | even roughly half of Democrats think we're in a recession.

00:20:14.980 | So I think those are all feelings,

00:20:17.620 | not behavior,

00:20:18.280 | though,

00:20:18.580 | sex.

00:20:18.880 | We're looking at the data,

00:20:20.020 | not the sentiment.

00:20:21.400 | I think the behavior will catch up with the,

00:20:22.940 | with the sentiment.

00:20:23.480 | I think the behavior is,

00:20:24.440 | I think the behavior is pivoting.

00:20:25.820 | Yeah.

00:20:26.180 | It's just that I think you have to dig beneath the service surface and you have to look at things like retail sales,

00:20:31.760 | things like that.

00:20:32.360 | I'm not sure,

00:20:33.560 | David,

00:20:33.920 | if you look back on all the number of times consumer sentiment has dipped that the correlation to spending patterns is so uniformly predictive as we think.

00:20:41.780 | I mean,

00:20:42.140 | I think that there are,

00:20:42.980 | there's a slight positive correlation I remember,

00:20:45.200 | but I don't think it's like,

00:20:46.160 | you know,

00:20:46.640 | 0.75,

00:20:47.720 | 0.8,

00:20:48.260 | one.

00:20:48.800 | It's not that.

00:20:49.820 | So there's this weird preference falsification that happens.

00:20:52.740 | When you get asked,

00:20:53.580 | what do you think is going to happen versus what do you do?

00:20:56.340 | And I think a lot of consumers,

00:20:57.920 | that's why they have,

00:20:59.000 | you know,

00:20:59.400 | we know the data in America,

00:21:00.540 | like less than a month of savings or whatever those numbers are,

00:21:04.160 | despite all of the sentiment analysis and all of this stuff,

00:21:06.740 | you would think that there'd be behavior change,

00:21:08.880 | but mostly people kind of just live in the moment.

00:21:11.400 | And you know,

00:21:12.160 | that that's partly because they don't have the structural support to save or other things.

00:21:18.560 | But the reality is that most folks from what they say to what they behave,

00:21:22.540 | there is a gap.

00:21:23.540 | Yeah.

00:21:24.040 | And to your point,

00:21:25.000 | Sax,

00:21:25.500 | this is starting to catch up.

00:21:27.380 | We're seeing a slight downtick and we'll go to real estate next.

00:21:31.080 | But if you look,

00:21:31.660 | I found I was doing some research on gasoline because that's obviously where people getting hit the most.

00:21:36.220 | The average household is now spending 5000 a year on gasoline.

00:21:39.520 | That's almost double last year.

00:21:41.140 | So this is going to have an impact.

00:21:42.700 | It's going to catch up,

00:21:43.860 | but there's so many jobs available and there's so many people unemployed.

00:21:46.500 | I think it's manageable.

00:21:48.060 | So to your point,

00:21:48.920 | Chamath,

00:21:49.280 | it feels like consumers can manage even this great headwind.

00:21:52.340 | Let me just put a point to it.

00:21:54.440 | I think the average per capita income in the US is about $38,000 a year.

00:22:00.440 | That works out to about 17 bucks and 50 cents an hour.

00:22:05.660 | Roughly think about a person with that level of earnings.

00:22:10.160 | The average household in the US has historically spent about a third on housing,

00:22:16.220 | about 13% on food and about 16% on their car and their gas.

00:22:22.140 | And they only have about 12% leftover for savings.

00:22:25.680 | So, you know,

00:22:26.460 | if that 13% on food has jumped by 30%,

00:22:29.880 | the 16% that they're spending on gas has jumped by 40% or 50%.

00:22:34.920 | And even if housing prices take up a little bit,

00:22:37.480 | all of a sudden your savings are gone and you're actually not saving.

00:22:40.380 | It's actually doubled free,

00:22:41.380 | but it's doubled the gas.

00:22:42.440 | So yeah,

00:22:43.000 | by the way,

00:22:43.320 | it's worse than you say,

00:22:44.780 | no, it's worse than you say,

00:22:45.480 | because you're,

00:22:45.960 | you're using a per capita number.

00:22:47.660 | Yeah. Yeah.

00:22:48.100 | And so what,

00:22:49.260 | but I think what I'm trying to highlight is that there is a distribution.

00:22:51.940 | There is a group of the United States,

00:22:54.160 | a small percentage of minority that have earned good income and are having

00:22:57.760 | their 50th anniversary.

00:22:58.720 | Like Chamath is talking about taking their travel.

00:23:00.940 | And that shows up in the numbers.

00:23:02.020 | There's outside spending happening with a segment of the economy.

00:23:05.080 | And what SACS is saying,

00:23:06.220 | I think is right as well,

00:23:07.300 | which is that the majority of Americans are facing this really critical budget

00:23:11.260 | crisis where their personal spending levels are now exceeding their income

00:23:14.800 | levels.

00:23:15.580 | And there's a critical need for credit and for personal debt and spending to go

00:23:20.200 | down.

00:23:20.760 | And that's,

00:23:21.180 | what's going to drive,

00:23:21.740 | what's going to drive significant risk in the next couple of months and

00:23:24.680 | quarters and years is that the majority,

00:23:26.980 | it looks,

00:23:27.500 | some of the numbers will look good because there's a segment of the economy

00:23:30.500 | that is overspending.

00:23:31.700 | But the majority of the economy is,

00:23:33.080 | as SACS is saying,

00:23:34.240 | probably turning on a dime.

00:23:35.540 | And I think both things can be true.

00:23:37.220 | Yeah. Let me,

00:23:38.000 | let me maybe tie a couple of these things together because I,

00:23:40.700 | I, I tend to agree with you.

00:23:42.380 | Like,

00:23:42.800 | I think that we have been in a supply side recession.

00:23:46.700 | That is what has caused inflation.

00:23:48.680 | We have to go through a process.

00:23:51.540 | Of taking all the excess money that's been put in,

00:23:55.040 | out.

00:23:56.300 | And when you do that,

00:23:57.640 | we will destroy demand.

00:23:59.440 | And then that'll trigger a demand side recession because people will.

00:24:02.240 | And we will destroy asset values.

00:24:03.880 | And we will destroy asset values.

00:24:05.440 | So that's.

00:24:05.980 | Well, we started that process.

00:24:06.940 | Asset values went real quick.

00:24:08.340 | Yeah.

00:24:08.680 | That will happen second.

00:24:10.480 | So the balance sheets of that segment of the population that is overspending

00:24:13.380 | right now,

00:24:14.100 | once their balance sheets really take the hit and they take a hard look at

00:24:16.640 | what their savings are,

00:24:17.780 | they're going to cut spending.

00:24:19.780 | Right.

00:24:20.040 | So,

00:24:20.300 | but the point is,

00:24:20.980 | I think we're,

00:24:21.340 | we're still firmly in that first phase and I,

00:24:23.540 | and I,

00:24:23.840 | and I hate to be the bearer of bad news,

00:24:25.840 | but the reason why I think that we're still in the first part of this

00:24:28.940 | process is because people broadly speaking,

00:24:33.240 | still have a lot of savings because of all the stimulus checks.

00:24:36.600 | There is still a lot of money.

00:24:38.200 | So what,

00:24:39.340 | how will we know maybe is the better point when all of that excess

00:24:44.100 | savings has been,

00:24:45.980 | you know,

00:24:46.780 | torn away from these people because of high prices,

00:24:49.200 | I suspect it's when Jason,

00:24:51.140 | Jason's first chart starts to close,

00:24:52.940 | right?

00:24:53.140 | So when people are,

00:24:54.640 | you know,

00:24:55.140 | go,

00:24:55.640 | they're more motivated to reenter the workforce.

00:24:57.940 | I think that's a signal free.

00:24:59.540 | Burke,

00:24:59.940 | your signal is another one,

00:25:01.140 | which is when credit delinquencies really start to spike.

00:25:04.340 | It's because people then,

00:25:05.740 | you know,

00:25:06.040 | tapped out their savings,

00:25:07.240 | then they tap their credit cards and then all of a sudden they become delinquent.

00:25:10.640 | When all of those things happen,

00:25:12.140 | you're probably now at a point where that first phase of the supply side issues are largely done.

00:25:18.140 | And now you get to the demand destruction,

00:25:20.140 | but all of those roads,

00:25:20.940 | unfortunately lead to the same conclusion,

00:25:23.940 | which is like,

00:25:24.940 | you know,

00:25:25.440 | equities get really under pressure.

00:25:27.440 | There is no scenario where there's a bit to equities.

00:25:29.940 | Why would you buy something that has lower earnings in the future?

00:25:33.440 | Or why would you buy something that has a lower discount rate for profits in the future?

00:25:38.440 | In this case,

00:25:39.440 | both are true.

00:25:40.440 | All right,

00:25:40.940 | let's get to that because the piece we haven't got to.

00:25:43.140 | So here's the river card is housing because people's homes are the majority of their wealth here in the United States.

00:25:48.740 | And that I think will be the true indication.

00:25:50.740 | Indicator Chamath to your point,

00:25:52.540 | labor participation,

00:25:53.540 | certainly one,

00:25:54.140 | but when this hits housing,

00:25:55.240 | that's when we're going to know we're in the end game.

00:25:57.840 | The mortgage rate just hit 5.3%.

00:26:00.340 | Why do you say housing is the end game?

00:26:02.840 | Well,

00:26:03.040 | I think we haven't seen the collapse of housing prices yet.

00:26:06.840 | We're in a housing shortage and historically mortgages are still at,

00:26:12.040 | you know,

00:26:12.340 | the 30-year average.

00:26:13.540 | So let me just give you the statistics here.

00:26:15.440 | The mortgage rate is 5.3%.

00:26:18.240 | If you look at this chart from our childhood on,

00:26:20.540 | our parents in the 80s were paying 15,

00:26:22.940 | 16,

00:26:23.340 | 70,

00:26:23.840 | 17,

00:26:24.640 | 17% for their mortgages were well below the 50-year average,

00:26:28.040 | even with the rate hikes.

00:26:30.640 | And so the 50-year average for mortgages,

00:26:32.940 | the 30-year mortgage is 7.77.

00:26:35.240 | So we're at 5.3 well below that.

00:26:37.340 | But well,

00:26:38.540 | this has been a very quick turnaround from two and a half percent mortgages all the way up to 5.3%.

00:26:43.840 | Home sales have started to show weakness.

00:26:46.040 | So to Sax's point,

00:26:47.140 | this is starting to show up in the numbers,

00:26:49.040 | but ever so much.

00:26:50.340 | We're down 6%,

00:26:52.240 | almost 7% year over year and 3.5% month over month,

00:26:56.140 | but we're holding up historically.

00:26:57.340 | So for the last 10 years,

00:26:58.940 | we've been selling over 5 million homes a month with the exception of the pandemic shutdown.

00:27:03.040 | And that's this next chart you're going to see here.

00:27:05.040 | And this is a really amazing chart.

00:27:06.640 | I found which is existing home sales versus a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in our childhoods in the 80s.

00:27:13.140 | We're selling two or three million homes a year as you see the rates.

00:27:16.340 | That's the orange line come down massively from 17% and then

00:27:20.140 | under 10% housing starts to flip people start flipping houses more and more often,

00:27:26.140 | but we're still at that 5 million that numbers got to drop down to probably four

00:27:31.040 | and then we would actually have some capitulation feedback from the panel.

00:27:35.840 | I mean look,

00:27:36.540 | there's an old saying that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job

00:27:42.340 | and a depression is when you lose your job.

00:27:44.540 | And the reality is we haven't had the big job losses yet.

00:27:48.240 | It's starting we can start to see it.

00:27:49.940 | And the number of open Rex are getting closed.

00:27:52.440 | And then there were those job loss numbers that just came out which were a little higher than expected.

00:27:56.540 | So the job losses are starting but so far it's really been the step prior to that,

00:28:01.240 | which is people are seeing their 401ks get destroyed stock markets down.

00:28:05.940 | They're seeing their wages get destroyed by inflation food and gas prices being much higher.

00:28:10.340 | So there's a really good reason why people are so sentiment is so negative out there people feel poor than they were before

00:28:16.840 | and this could get worse like you saying Jason with their nest egg

00:28:19.740 | in their homes getting hit.

00:28:21.140 | I agree.

00:28:21.540 | That's the next shoe to drop just like the commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop.

00:28:25.640 | But I think the really big question over the next six months is what sort of job losses do we see because that really is going to be the big determinant of of how hard this recession hits.

00:28:37.140 | Yeah, I agree with you and it's it doesn't look like if we if we're losing 300,000 jobs a month,

00:28:42.540 | it's going to take a long time for us to even get to one for one jobs.

00:28:46.740 | And so this is a very weird honestly.

00:28:49.540 | I think I think you are right,

00:28:51.440 | but I think we're not even close to that.

00:28:53.940 | I just don't see where all of a sudden there are these writ large mass layoffs.

00:28:59.440 | For example,

00:29:00.140 | I would believe what you're saying.

00:29:01.840 | If you if the headline in the Wall Street Journal said Walmart lays off 10,000 people,

00:29:07.540 | right?

00:29:08.140 | That's not what's happening.

00:29:09.740 | In fact,

00:29:10.840 | it's the exact opposite Walmart's like,

00:29:12.440 | well,

00:29:12.740 | you know,

00:29:13.240 | we seem to have record demand.

00:29:14.640 | We're raising prices and every supplier will have to pay a gas tax and a supplier tax.

00:29:19.340 | And deal with it.

00:29:20.340 | So I just think that you're going to be right in the end.

00:29:23.940 | I just think we're way too early in this process to get to that place where we did.

00:29:28.640 | We're debating this.

00:29:29.540 | I don't see search Martha.

00:29:31.140 | You on board with the the Ackman trade.

00:29:33.040 | Basically,

00:29:33.640 | you know,

00:29:33.840 | Ackman basically came out that tweet from a couple of days ago,

00:29:36.340 | basically saying that listen inflation is still the big problem.

00:29:39.740 | Not recession.

00:29:40.340 | The economy is humming along.

00:29:41.640 | There's plenty of jobs and we're going to have a persistent problem with inflation.

00:29:45.840 | I think he's kind of right and kind of wrong.

00:29:48.040 | I think that you can have.

00:29:49.140 | Inflation and recession at the same time.

00:29:52.140 | This is what my point is.

00:29:53.240 | I think we have been in a supply-side recession meaning the day of the pandemic.

00:29:59.540 | It's not as if demand stopped.

00:30:01.340 | It's not as if you and I David didn't want to go out or use DoorDash or take an uber or watch a movie in a movie theater.

00:30:08.040 | We were not allowed right?

00:30:09.640 | And so we found other ways in order to fulfill our demand.

00:30:13.140 | That's why Shopify,

00:30:14.540 | you know did so well on behalf of the merchants that they served.

00:30:17.540 | That's why Robin Hood did so.

00:30:18.940 | Well, that's why fortnight did so well, right?

00:30:21.240 | We found other places to spend money.

00:30:23.340 | But what went away was a supply and those incentives didn't come back and they're still not back.

00:30:29.040 | That's why prices keep going up.

00:30:30.840 | This is the problem is the definition of a recession rights Chamath.

00:30:34.440 | We're not the problem is just that most people don't understand that you can have a supply-side recession and a demand-side recession.

00:30:39.240 | They just manifest in different ways.

00:30:41.340 | So well, I think I think I think like I guess Ackman is roughly right in some ways.

00:30:47.140 | He's roughly not.

00:30:48.740 | The right and some others.

00:30:49.840 | I think that we have an issue where we are going to transfer.

00:30:53.440 | The supply-side issues that are driving inflation to average everyday consumers and their ability to buy things.

00:31:01.640 | I still think that the average everyday consumers desire to buy things is what it was from before and on the margin is probably higher.

00:31:10.440 | I do think at some point it will start to change when prices get high enough, but I don't think we've reached that point.

00:31:18.540 | Of equilibrium yet.

00:31:19.840 | And the reason is because companies like the Walmart's of the world who see this demand.

00:31:25.440 | On literally a real-time basis knows better than anybody else when and how much they can raise prices downstream into their supply chain.

00:31:33.840 | So when you see something like this in the Wall Street Journal, I would just encourage us all to say they must see that demand is the same or better.

00:31:41.440 | And so they're going to now push those price increases down to everybody else because now Walmart says here is an

00:31:48.340 | opportunity for me to defend my earnings power.

00:31:50.840 | And this is why I think we're in this first inning of this.

00:31:54.340 | So I don't know whether Ackman is right or wrong, but I think we're in the early phases of a two-phase recession.

00:32:00.640 | And I don't know what that looks like because I've never lived through one of those and I think in many ways it's the combination of the two and it was it was largely because of government failure government failure and how we reacted to the pandemic in hindsight.

00:32:14.640 | Saks was right all along.

00:32:16.140 | We overreacted by shutting.

00:32:18.140 | Everything down.

00:32:18.740 | We probably could have kept some supply online by understanding masking early on.

00:32:23.240 | And then second, we exacerbated with failed government policy because we gave everybody trillions and trillions of dollars and we entered the capital markets and perverted it with another seven or eight trillion more.

00:32:33.440 | And by the way, state that has consequences.

00:32:35.640 | Well, the consequences are still talking about giving stimulus.

00:32:39.740 | Yeah, now in order to help people deal with so we are not we are not learning second.

00:32:46.240 | You can't pour fire.

00:32:47.640 | So if.

00:32:48.540 | If I had to basically put what we are all saying into a neat little bow, I would say there needs to be a multi-phased economic correction.

00:32:58.540 | One that corrects the supply that we took out of the market during the pandemic one that corrects for all the excess money and then one that corrects for demand.

00:33:08.740 | That's a lot of stuff.

00:33:10.540 | We have to do.

00:33:11.240 | It's a lot.

00:33:11.540 | So the more misguided government policy we have the farther away from finding that equilibrium point.

00:33:17.240 | We have to be the longer.

00:33:17.940 | It's going to take the more damage is going to be so sacks.

00:33:21.140 | The Fed is obviously it's pretty much consensus.

00:33:24.140 | They're going to do another .75 75 basis points later this month could be 50 basis points who knows there seems to be a couple of people saying that that might happen.

00:33:32.340 | If that does happen and it feels like inflation is starting to top out.

00:33:37.240 | Do you think inflation?

00:33:38.440 | You know starts to turn or do you think we're still going to see prices go up because it does feel like it was starting to bounce along the ceiling.

00:33:47.740 | Where do you what do you think is going to happen?

00:33:48.940 | If the .75 happens you're seeing the market rally today in the last few days, especially growth stocks because of this idea that the Fed is tackling inflation.

00:33:57.740 | They're raising rates and the market is looking out six months and seeing the possibility of recession and they believe that is going to bring down demand and bring down prices and it could be what I just described would be a soft landing.

00:34:11.640 | I just am skeptical.

00:34:12.640 | There's going to be a softly ending because of what you're saying, which is this is a multi-part.

00:34:16.840 | Problem and until we fix the supply side.

00:34:19.640 | I don't think that merely reducing demand is going to get us out of this.

00:34:23.140 | I really agree with you.

00:34:24.540 | It's a production problem.

00:34:26.340 | It's a demand problem.

00:34:28.040 | And it's also as we just talked about a few minutes ago in employment problem because the businesses that need to grow that need to generate revenue cannot get the businesses that are dependent on people to do service jobs cannot get those jobs filled and so they cannot grow their revenue cannot make their profits and there's a trickling effect in the economy.

00:34:46.640 | Of that, you know what we talked about that kind of job shift that job market shift that's happened.

00:34:51.640 | So all three and so all three are just this like dislocation that's happened.

00:34:56.140 | Totally right and it's unclear, you know, someone very smart.

00:35:00.640 | I was talking to yesterday who is a former member of an administration said we just there's literally no way to predict we just don't because you think about the complexity of throwing three rocks in a pond.

00:35:16.440 | How do those three rocks interact and how do the ripples interact is really what we're trying to predict and it's very hard to do.

00:35:21.740 | I mean if you translate this into the markets for one second, I think what we've done since November of 21 and Nick you should play this clip because you know not to say, you know, we didn't see this coming but we really did, you know, we pointed to, you know, one of our friends and the person somebody else that we kind of know Bezos and Elon and we said when the two smartest capital allocators in the world start divesting.

00:35:46.240 | They clearly understand and see things that the rest of us should pay attention to and to ignore it seems reckless or you're the clip and we'll be back in 30 seconds after the clip.

00:35:56.040 | The two most important founders of our generation.

00:35:59.040 | The two smartest people who have really consistently won Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have collectively sold more than 11 billion dollars of their holdings this year alone.

00:36:07.540 | And if you can't take all of that and decide for yourself, what's right for you and your family, you're doing yourself a disservice.

00:36:13.740 | I think it's important for me to never sort of like

00:36:16.040 | be forced to tell folks whether I'm buying or selling although I'm willing to do it in moments where I think it's important, but I think it's really important to understand the context.

00:36:24.140 | And so I think like these folks that like think derisively about individuals who are managing risk.

00:36:29.540 | I think it's really naive and I think it's it creates a lot of missed opportunity for them as well.

00:36:35.740 | If the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell and you are not reconsidering

00:36:45.840 | your position on things, you're either much smarter than them or you're being really really reckless.

00:36:53.140 | That was November, you know, and at that moment I started a bunch of things in process which we can talk about at the end, but I also sold a bunch of stuff.

00:37:01.540 | Well you sold the Warriors position.

00:37:02.540 | I started a process at that point and I sold a piece in December and then I just sold the last piece this week.

00:37:07.240 | But then, you know, I sold a big piece of SoFi in that moment, but the point was more the following which is since

00:37:15.640 | that clip to today, what we've gone through is a massive re-rating of the discount factor of these companies assuming nothing else changes, right?

00:37:27.040 | That's all we've done.

00:37:28.140 | We've not questioned whether earnings can change, you know, all we said is okay.

00:37:33.240 | Well now we're going to take the discount rate up which means the value of this company is less than it used to be.

00:37:38.240 | That's all we've done through all of this wealth destruction that's happened since November, but now the second shoe has to drop which

00:37:45.440 | is if you believe that after this supply side issues are resolved, you go through a demand destruction phase.

00:37:51.440 | The earnings of these companies are in real trouble and Jason you posted something I think about the social media companies and

00:37:57.940 | advertising is going to get hit, right?

00:37:59.940 | So one of the first things to go in a recession is advertising.

00:38:02.740 | If you're going to belt Titan at a company, where can you do it?

00:38:05.340 | Well, you lay off employees, but you can't get out of your leases as we talked about in real estate, but you can cut your spending on marketing.

00:38:10.940 | And so right now they it's looking pretty bleak for

00:38:15.240 | Facebook because of the headwinds they have so the earnings could drop which means and by the way, the top ratio could be totally talked about.

00:38:22.140 | Things are not real, right?

00:38:24.240 | Well, we talked about that.

00:38:25.340 | We talked about that over the last few weeks, which is every time the market rallied oddly Facebook would be stagnant or trade off.

00:38:31.640 | And we know when I called people on Wall Street, what they said was because you know, we think this is the company that has the most pressure on earnings.

00:38:38.740 | I don't know if that's true or not, but they took every opportunity in rallies to trim their position in Facebook.

00:38:44.040 | Now if that's true,

00:38:45.040 | you have to remind yourself that is one of the 10 best companies in the entire world.

00:38:49.040 | And so if you're going to go and question the earnings power of one of the 10 best companies in the world,

00:38:54.040 | you may want to consider the earnings power of every other company that's not Facebook.

00:38:59.040 | There are some unique things to the Facebook story.

00:39:01.040 | They are facing a unique disruptive moment with Apple

00:39:05.040 | Ankling their ability to target users.

00:39:07.540 | Supposedly Google might follow suit with that, which would be super anti-competitive and also the surging TikTok taking

00:39:14.840 | market share for them.

00:39:15.840 | There's some good news in energy, which will then dovetail into politics and into this farming situation.

00:39:20.840 | Friedberg Turkish government claims it just discovered almost 700 million metric tons of rare earth minerals.

00:39:26.240 | It's 15 times China's Reserve.

00:39:28.640 | If this is true, you guys probably know we use about 150,000 metric tons a year right now.

00:39:34.940 | That's going to double by 2030.

00:39:36.740 | This is something like 4,000 years at the current demand and this would put them far beyond anybody else's Chamath.

00:39:43.240 | You've got investments in this space.

00:39:44.640 | I don't know if you've been tracking this news thoughts on another massive discovery of rare Earths.

00:39:51.040 | What did you guys just have dinner dinner or surf?

00:39:53.340 | What do you guys know?

00:39:54.040 | Nats the best she brought she brought us.

00:39:55.740 | You got a little pasta with show me.

00:39:57.040 | There's an incredible restaurant here in Milan called DeSantis, which makes the best paninis you've ever tasted.

00:40:03.540 | Is this a harbinger of the future DeSantis?

00:40:05.840 | What could be more perfect than that?

00:40:07.040 | Oh, the DeSantis panini.

00:40:08.640 | Here you go.

00:40:09.340 | This is the Oracle sacks with the subliminal influence.

00:40:12.440 | Absolutely.

00:40:12.840 | So good.

00:40:13.340 | This is what's going to get us out of this.

00:40:14.440 | This is the DeSantis situation.

00:40:15.140 | DeSantis.

00:40:15.840 | All right, Chamath just quickly on the rare Earths.

00:40:19.440 | If this is actually true, what would this do?

00:40:22.840 | And have you been tracking the situation because it does seem there's some truth to it.

00:40:26.840 | Yeah, I think it's important to just take a step back and kind of look at this thing with not like complete skepticism, but just a little skepticism.

00:40:35.640 | It's okay.

00:40:36.240 | Not surprising that there's additional deposits all around the world.

00:40:39.440 | Meaning we've always said rare Earths are not particularly that rare.

00:40:43.140 | It's just the question.

00:40:44.240 | Is you know, which of the 17 rare Earth elements at what grade meaning at what percent concentration does it exist?

00:40:52.640 | And then really importantly at what cost to extract it economically?

00:40:57.140 | Yeah, right.

00:40:57.840 | So meaning there's a ton of underdeveloped rare Earth assets in Canada, the US Africa, Australia, Brazil, Brazil.

00:41:04.240 | They're just under underdeveloped because when you put all of these factors together, it's really tough.

00:41:09.340 | So the government release says they're going to process like 570,000 tons of war.

00:41:14.040 | That'll produce around 10,000 kilotons per year of rare Earths.

00:41:17.140 | That implies sort of a 1.75 to 2% grade.

00:41:21.040 | It's fine.

00:41:21.940 | So there's just a lot more work.

00:41:23.640 | I would just sort of say it's really directionally great.

00:41:26.540 | A lot more work needs to be done and more importantly, they need to release enough of this detail.

00:41:32.540 | So folks like us and others can actually diligence it to tell you more accurately, but the press release was exciting.

00:41:38.940 | Freeburg.

00:41:39.740 | This reminds me a little bit of the peak oil head fake.

00:41:43.140 | We had.

00:41:44.140 | You know, 15 years ago, everybody basically said we're not going to find more oil.

00:41:48.540 | Here's what's left of oil.

00:41:49.740 | And then Norway is like, yeah, we just found more oil than existed previously and has been pulled out and the whole concept that the world's going to run out of oil is now gone.

00:41:57.540 | So Freeburg, what is happening in science that we just can't predict what resources are available.

00:42:03.440 | We know very little about what's inside the below the certain depth of the crust of the Earth.

00:42:08.940 | So, you know, there's some estimates.

00:42:13.640 | But we're always surprised and we know very little about the distribution of those elements in the crust of the Earth and below the crust of the Earth.

00:42:19.640 | You know, mining is an incredible industry.

00:42:22.340 | I don't know the state of the art in engineering and mining very well, but you know, from a pure geophysics point of view, by some estimates, we have 10 billion years of energy reserves below the crust of the Earth that we can access in the form of nuclear reserves geothermal power and that's

00:42:43.440 | excluding, you know, some of the, you know, the potential of some of these elements and what they can do and building a more sustainable energy economy.

00:42:50.540 | Why is people so pessimistic when we keep surprising ourselves and more resources?

00:42:55.140 | Anyone wants a great book.

00:42:57.440 | None of you guys were at the dinner that I did a few weeks ago where we had Steven Pinker come for dinner.

00:43:02.140 | Yeah, read his book enlightenment now, or you could watch one of his videos on YouTube where he's got like all 60 slides and he highlights like, you know, humans have a tendency to focus on the risks.

00:43:13.240 | And the concerns and the downsides and we miss the incredible optimism that is apparent as we actually look at the data of what's happening with our species and what we're doing on our planet.

00:43:23.740 | We have every reason to be optimistic.

00:43:25.340 | You know, we have fewer wars than we've ever had murder rate per capita is lowest than it ever been.

00:43:30.440 | Longevity is increasing.

00:43:31.840 | Health is increasing per capita.

00:43:33.540 | I think everything's increasing and I think that the same is true in terms of, you know, scientific breakthroughs discovery and engineering our way to a more sustainable energy and food future.

00:43:41.940 | This is one of the great.

00:43:43.040 | Things about having you as a friend free Berg is your relentless optimism and your actual cool comp collective lack of anxiety in other amazing news.

00:43:52.040 | The EU Parliament has flipped again.

00:43:54.840 | Credit Thurnberg is completely tilted.

00:43:57.840 | We talked about the virtue signaling EU Parliament, you know, and Germany turning off their nuclear power plants and just securing the bag for Putin.

00:44:07.140 | The EU Parliament flipped and they are now saying these virtue signaling knuckleheads.

00:44:12.040 | They came to the.

00:44:12.840 | Census and now they believe nuclear is green.

00:44:15.040 | Also green according to the EU Parliament is natural gas.

00:44:19.640 | So this to me feels like the beginning of the end for Putin and Saudi Arabia.

00:44:24.040 | If you look at the US becoming a net exporter of energy, it's quite possible.

00:44:29.740 | The EU could become that as well if they actually and this is a big if if they actually.

00:44:34.540 | You know start building nuclear.

00:44:37.940 | It could be the beginning of the end of what some people are calling the woke green movement and that's

00:44:42.640 | certainly over this realization that to transition to the next car to the beyond the carbon economy is going to require continuing to invest in and support the carbon economy until those alternative solutions emerge and to have to dual track investing and I think that that's what we're seeing around the world in the United States in Europe now and Europe has always been farther way farther left in the United States in taking this point of view and I think now this has been a wake-up call for everyone and all it took was just a little bit of $6.

00:45:12.440 | more gasoline and for people to personally suffer for them to change their virtual signaling nonsense.

00:45:17.740 | Yeah, this is this is markets at work.

00:45:19.740 | Yeah, this is simply really educating the public.

00:45:22.340 | Would you rather be beholden to Putin they pivoted because of who would you rather have nukes they pivoted from banning energy production to banning food production.

00:45:30.140 | She talked about the Netherlands.

00:45:31.640 | They're about to get there about to get well, so on the energy side, I did a in the group chat just a little breakdown on the math.

00:45:37.640 | I think it may be interesting for people to understand but today globally

00:45:42.240 | around the world every single country in the world that is involved in the oil business is able to produce exactly 1 million more barrels per day than we need.

00:45:54.940 | So let's assume that we you know need a hundred million barrels of oil a day as a as a as a world to continue to do everything we want to do.

00:46:03.540 | We produce 101 million.

00:46:05.440 | So we're right on the knife's edge by August.

00:46:08.940 | We're going to go through a capacity increase.

00:46:12.040 | In OPEC plus which is, you know, OPEC plus Russia, etc.

00:46:16.840 | Saudi Arabia is going to go from 10 million barrels a day to 11 million barrels.

00:46:22.340 | So not a huge increase.

00:46:23.840 | Russia has is is thought to be able to cut production if they feel pressure up to 5 million barrels a day without having any impact to their economy.

00:46:34.940 | So JP Morgan, I think and Credit Suisse they did this sensitivity and accuracy.

00:46:41.840 | And they did a pretty good job.

00:46:42.940 | And here's what they found.

00:46:44.440 | They found that if Russia were to cut 3 million barrels of oil, so we would go from being oversupplied by 1 million to under supplied by 2.

00:46:53.940 | The price of oil would go to about a hundred and eighty dollars a barrel.

00:46:57.140 | If they cut 5 million, so the threshold at which their economy doesn't really get that impacted.

00:47:02.640 | The price of oil could go as high as three hundred eighty dollars a barrel.

00:47:06.340 | While you would say, okay, well, we just need to pump more oil from other places and this is the problem in all of.

00:47:11.940 | These rules that have existed for so long.

00:47:14.340 | The capacity doesn't exist, right?

00:47:16.340 | We were destroying supply governments all around the world.

00:47:20.140 | We're making it very difficult to generate the supply of nuclear to generate the supply of oil and to generate the supply of nat gas.

00:47:28.340 | So Saudi Arabia says we can get to 12 million.

00:47:31.540 | Well, guess what?

00:47:32.840 | They can only start the work in 2024.

00:47:35.440 | They'll be done in 2027.

00:47:37.740 | Yeah.

00:47:38.640 | So to your point, all of a sudden we realize wait.

00:47:41.440 | We needed these bridge fuels all along.

00:47:44.340 | How do we allow all of the supply destruction to happen?

00:47:47.440 | And now we need to unwind it.

00:47:49.140 | It's going to be a very complicated process.

00:47:52.240 | And if any of these things happen, if Russia decides to play hardball against Europe or America, we better hope that it's a mild winter because very quickly you can go from plus 1 million barrels to minus 2 in a heartbeat.

00:48:05.140 | Yeah, and America's going to start and the last point on this about the Saudi Arabia.

00:48:08.840 | You think okay.

00:48:09.340 | Well Saudi Arabia is going to go from 10 to 11.

00:48:11.240 | That's good.

00:48:11.740 | They have been at 11 million for some total of eight weeks in their entire lifetime.

00:48:16.340 | If we look at this, I mean Americans also buying 20 to 25 mile per gallon cars that's got to end too.

00:48:22.640 | And so personal responsibility is part of this.

00:48:26.040 | The really interesting thing is China already has this plan their nuclear strategy with the Belt and Road initiative is to put 30 nuclear reactors in countries outside of China that they're trying to have influence in and they're building 30 nukes right now.

00:48:40.240 | They got a hundred and.

00:48:41.040 | 50.

00:48:41.140 | 50 planned.

00:48:41.940 | So China's just ultimately savvy and thinking big here about energy independence and we need to follow them other big anybody have anything else on the energy situation before we go to the farming situation.

00:48:55.740 | Let's get to the farming situation.

00:48:57.740 | Okay, so Dutch farmers are in revolt after a new proposed law to cut emissions on Tuesday Dutch lawmakers voted on proposals to slash emissions of pollutants like nitrogen oxide and ammonia.

00:49:11.040 | They're targeting a 50% cut nationwide by 2030 livestock produces these emissions.

00:49:17.240 | So the plan will likely force Dutch farmers to cut their livestock herds or stop working all together.

00:49:22.440 | Farmers protested they put their tractors outside buildings.

00:49:26.540 | They dump fertilizer 40,000 farmers gather last week in the central Netherlands agricultural Heartland to protest these plans and it's called shooting at them.

00:49:36.040 | They got these tractors were doing some pretty gnarly things.

00:49:40.940 | And stopping traffic and I guess it got heated and there were some shots were fired.

00:49:47.040 | What were they?

00:49:47.840 | No, wait, the government fire shots.

00:49:50.340 | The protesters were unarmed as far as what I read.

00:49:53.640 | But supposedly they were doing some dangerous maneuvers.

00:49:56.240 | Were they honking their horns?

00:49:57.740 | Is that why they got shot at?

00:49:59.040 | I think they were using it.

00:50:00.240 | No, no, it's okay for the police to shoot working-class protesters if they're honking their horns, right?

00:50:06.040 | I think they were threatening the safety of this is the other side of the story, Sax.

00:50:09.840 | Listen, neither.

00:50:10.840 | I think the rest were there.

00:50:11.340 | But according to the sources, they were using the tractors to threaten the police like physical bodily harm.

00:50:17.540 | And that's why they unloaded.

00:50:18.740 | We don't know all the details.

00:50:19.840 | It'll come out.

00:50:20.440 | But that sounds proportionate.

00:50:21.840 | I mean, if you had a tractor coming at you to kill you and you're a police officer, I think it is proportionate to unload.

00:50:27.740 | Let me just talk about the science of it.

00:50:29.740 | Science.

00:50:30.240 | Yeah, let's go.

00:50:30.940 | Wait, is it like the scene in Austin Powers where there's a steamroller coming towards Austin?

00:50:35.440 | I was just thinking about that.

00:50:36.640 | Exactly.

00:50:37.440 | I was just thinking about that.

00:50:38.440 | Jason's like, oh, they're using the tractor as a weapon.

00:50:40.740 | That's like really just I'm I was you were not there.

00:50:44.340 | I was not there.

00:50:44.940 | I'm just telling you what was reported reporting.

00:50:47.740 | What's reported and nobody knows if the reports are true.

00:50:50.140 | So I think look, I think it's worth just highlighting because this is a really important.

00:50:53.440 | This is the first time we've seen government action of this scale and the resulting kind of rebound effect on something.

00:51:00.740 | That's really important humans use roughly between two and six percent of our energy on Earth every year to make ammonia.

00:51:08.040 | Ammonia is the primary fertilizer.

00:51:10.640 | We use to fertilize our crops around the world.

00:51:13.040 | And if not for the invention of the Haber Bosch process, which you can read about in the book, the alchemy of air and the creation of ammonia as a synthetic fertilizer.

00:51:21.540 | Humans would all have starved in the mid 20th century.

00:51:24.740 | It's an incredible technology breakthrough.

00:51:26.540 | What we've learned over the years, however, is that when ammonia sits on the ground for too long, it volatilizes and it basically binds with oxygen and turns into nitrous oxide and goes into the atmosphere nitrous oxide is 300.

00:51:40.540 | Times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2.

00:51:45.140 | It lasts longer and it absorbs more heat.

00:51:48.540 | So there has long been concerned about the overuse of fertilizer and the overproduction of ammonia that just sits on the ground for too long.

00:51:55.840 | That ultimately creates this incredible greenhouse gas effect.

00:51:59.240 | And so there has been talk in the United States under the Obama administration under multiple EPA's.

00:52:04.040 | There was a Supreme Court ruling a few weeks ago that started to touch on whether or not the EPA has regulatory authority here.

00:52:10.440 | To actually regulate the use of ammonia.

00:52:12.640 | Farmers generally put a lot of ammonia on the ground because they get higher yields out of their crop.

00:52:17.640 | The problem is if that ammonia sits there for too long, it turns into a greenhouse gas.

00:52:21.440 | And so regulating ammonia and regulating this nitrous oxide emission has been, you know, at the forefront of green, the green movement at the forefront of climate change as one of the ways to manage and reduce the effects of global warming from human industry.

00:52:35.940 | And now, you know, the Dutch government has come out and started to do some of this regulation.

00:52:40.340 | It's a little bit off because it comes from cows and we're seeing what happens.

00:52:44.940 | Chamath.

00:52:45.640 | Freebrook.

00:52:46.040 | Can we finally admit that it's the vegans fault now?

00:52:48.540 | Well, at this point, actually, you know,

00:52:51.440 | Oh, is that a yes?

00:52:53.640 | No, the ammonia production in the Netherlands is from the cows.

00:52:56.540 | It's from the Netherlands.

00:52:57.540 | Just so you guys know, the Netherlands is the world's third largest dairy exporter.

00:53:02.040 | They export three billion dollars a year of milk to the rest of the world, to other countries.

00:53:06.840 | And so they have all these cows that are like densely packed and they're peeing everywhere.

00:53:09.840 | And that pee is like,

00:53:10.240 | Oh, that pee is ammonia and it's causing all of this problems.

00:53:13.140 | The other problem with ammonia.

00:53:13.940 | So if you guys look at the United States corn farmers farm in the Midwest,

00:53:18.040 | when it rains, the ammonia on their fields goes into the streams,

00:53:21.740 | goes into the Mississippi River and goes into the Gulf of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico.

00:53:26.540 | There is a massive hypoxic zone.

00:53:28.140 | There are no fish.

00:53:28.840 | They're all dead because when ammonia ends up in the water, it kills life.

00:53:32.540 | And so there's this green algae and no fish and everything dies.

00:53:35.140 | And so that's what the Dutch are trying to regulate.

00:53:37.040 | And the EU generally has been trying to regulate is the removal

00:53:40.140 | of excess ammonia in AG production and in right.

00:53:43.440 | But I again, I still hear though that if if if if we ate less vegetables,

00:53:48.640 | this wouldn't be a problem.

00:53:49.640 | Not correct.

00:53:50.540 | Not correct.

00:53:50.940 | Most of the production of ammonia is used to make animal feed,

00:53:53.440 | which is used to feed animals to make beef,

00:53:55.040 | which is a terrible decision.

00:53:56.440 | You could feed it olives as we know olives taste delicious,

00:53:59.340 | but they're free.

00:54:00.540 | But the issue here that is the issue here that the regulators hit the brakes too hard on these farmers

00:54:07.240 | and they should have maybe had a more gradual landing for them is it's

00:54:10.040 | been talked about for a long time and in the US there's just no way a lot is going to pass

00:54:14.440 | because the US Senate is controlled primarily by rural states,

00:54:18.340 | which are AG heavy.

00:54:19.540 | So you see a lot of you don't see a lot of bills that hurt farmers get passed in the United States

00:54:24.040 | because the Senate is controlled by farmers that are elect.

00:54:26.740 | Sorry senators that are elected by farmer by big farming communities and farming States.

00:54:30.740 | And so, you know,

00:54:32.240 | it's been hard to get a regulation like this past where folks have tried to and talked about doing it around the world.

00:54:38.540 | However, in the place like the Netherland,

00:54:39.940 | in the EU where as I mentioned before,

00:54:41.640 | they're far more progressive and have this very kind of green hat on they're starting to take this sort of climate change action as they're calling it

00:54:49.540 | and that climate change action,

00:54:51.940 | you know does have the ramifications of destroying by the way,

00:54:55.240 | one of the things they said is we expect and this will destroy the livelihoods of many dairy farmers in the Netherlands.

00:55:01.540 | That was horrible.

00:55:02.140 | By the way,

00:55:02.440 | look all kidding aside said that they said that directly by the way and the dairy farmers are like F you you're not destroying our business for climate change.

00:55:09.040 | I have a specific question.

00:55:09.840 | Though,

00:55:10.340 | which is has there not been some efforts to engineer how these plants themselves absorb nitrogen.

00:55:17.140 | That's great.

00:55:18.040 | Chumak.

00:55:18.640 | I have three businesses.

00:55:19.940 | That's a totally right technology is going to solve this problem.

00:55:22.440 | I'm super optimistic on that.

00:55:24.540 | There are microbes that are being used to coat seed.

00:55:27.740 | Those microbes can pull nitrogen out of the atmosphere directly.

00:55:31.540 | So you don't need ammonia.

00:55:32.540 | Are you use far less ammonia?

00:55:34.240 | There's a couple companies that are doing this really effectively.

00:55:36.440 | They're growing like crazy.

00:55:37.540 | They're doing really well.

00:55:38.440 | There are other companies.

00:55:39.740 | There are other projects and there's very simple solutions.

00:55:42.440 | My last company.

00:55:43.140 | We had a product called nitrogen advisor where we basically told farmers instead of dumping all the fertilizer at the start of the season.

00:55:48.640 | You pace it out.

00:55:49.540 | So the fertilizer doesn't sit there and volatilize.

00:55:51.640 | There's all these solutions that technology allows from software to bioengineering to these microbial solutions.

00:55:58.040 | And so we're definitely I think going to resolve this.

00:56:01.140 | But meanwhile,

00:56:01.940 | these governments are in a frenzy to solve the climate change problem.

00:56:05.340 | And you know,

00:56:05.840 | they're going to start to pass these laws that really hurt the livelihoods of,

00:56:09.640 | you know,

00:56:10.140 | ag produces.

00:56:10.940 | How do you guys think something like this happens?

00:56:12.540 | Because typically you would expect when a government is about to pass something like this.

00:56:17.040 | There's sort of like a pretty fulsome review and all sides are brought together and there's working groups and all of this stuff.

00:56:23.740 | And at some point you would talk to some scientists at other points.

00:56:26.440 | You would talk to economists at other points.

00:56:28.540 | You talk to the people who would be directly affected like the farmers.

00:56:32.440 | Is it that the virtue signaling around sustainability and climate change is just so high that people just turn off?

00:56:39.540 | Their brains or will like what is actually happening here?

00:56:42.940 | I think what's going on is you got a bunch of technocratic bureaucrats in Brussels who don't know anything about farming or these people who live in the Netherlands.

00:56:51.240 | You've been doing this for generations and they sit there in Brussels and they make up these completely arbitrary guidelines and requirements 50% by 2030.

00:57:01.240 | Those are suspiciously round numbers.

00:57:03.240 | Okay, and then some other,

00:57:05.540 | you know,

00:57:06.040 | authoritarian technocrat in the Netherlands then says,

00:57:09.440 | well,

00:57:09.640 | we got to implement this and they pass some crazy law and they don't even think about the impact on these farmers.

00:57:14.640 | Why?

00:57:15.340 | Because they're deplorable.

00:57:16.640 | I mean,

00:57:16.940 | it's complete class bias.

00:57:19.040 | It's just like the Canadian truckers.

00:57:21.040 | They don't think about these people.

00:57:22.240 | They don't factor into their equation.

00:57:23.740 | They don't know how they live.

00:57:25.840 | And so that's what's going on here.

00:57:27.140 | And so you've got this global elite of technocrats who are willing to use authoritarian tactics.

00:57:32.240 | They're appropriating their farms or taking them away.

00:57:34.640 | That's why they're up in arms.

00:57:35.840 | See the rest of it,

00:57:36.440 | which you're not saying it's not just technocrats.

00:57:38.740 | It's the actual,

00:57:39.540 | global elite writ large have wrapped themselves around the sustainability blanket.

00:57:45.440 | And they believe that that word justifies all kinds of bad unscientific,

00:57:49.940 | innumerate policies.

00:57:51.240 | Right.

00:57:51.940 | And by the way,

00:57:52.940 | they're they've just woken up on energy,

00:57:54.640 | right?

00:57:54.940 | They had just banned energy production in Europe.

00:57:57.740 | They realize,

00:57:58.340 | oh,

00:57:58.440 | wait a second.

00:57:58.940 | This is making us dependent on Russia and authoritarians.

00:58:01.940 | Well,

00:58:02.340 | what is the other big export of Ukraine?

00:58:04.640 | It's food.

00:58:05.740 | So they got smart on energy and now they're about to repeat.

00:58:09.240 | Their same dumb mistake of basically prohibiting this area where they have an enormous natural advantage,

00:58:15.340 | which is food production.

00:58:16.540 | So,

00:58:17.340 | you know,

00:58:17.740 | it's like they just keep making the same mistake over and over again.

00:58:20.040 | And by the way,

00:58:20.840 | let me ask you a question.

00:58:21.640 | By the way.

00:58:22.040 | Yeah,

00:58:22.340 | look,

00:58:22.640 | I'm not going to question you on the science free bird.

00:58:25.340 | But here's what I would say is I think there's a tendency on the part of these technocrats to think that the science is a lot more bulletproof than it actually is.

00:58:33.940 | That is certainly what we saw with covid is we had these same sort of global elitist.

00:58:39.140 | These technocrats who claimed to be health experts.

00:58:41.440 | They made up all these lockdown rules that we talked about the beginning of the show.

00:58:45.540 | And what they do,

00:58:46.540 | they take the date.

00:58:48.040 | No,

00:58:48.540 | this isn't speculative.

00:58:49.340 | But but what I will,

00:58:50.640 | I will agree with you.

00:58:51.340 | You're willing to use.

00:58:52.240 | They're willing to use heavy-handed authoritarian tactics.

00:58:54.940 | And I just don't believe that the science of this,

00:58:57.640 | especially this 50% by 2030.

00:59:00.140 | Why is that the guideline who can prove that those are the exact right numbers and they're willing to use any tactics necessary to implement their crazy rules.

00:59:09.040 | So I think that's a good question.

00:59:10.640 | Sacks.

00:59:11.040 | Let's assume that there's a technology transition possible that there are solutions that could be used.

00:59:16.440 | I highlighted a few of them.

00:59:17.840 | They just cost money.

00:59:18.840 | They require some investment and you know,

00:59:21.340 | creating this distortion in the market by saying you can't release 50% of the ammonia that you've been releasing forces a technological shift that otherwise would have taken longer in the market.

00:59:31.640 | Do you agree that there may be a scenario here whereby you know governments can and should intervene and I'm not making the case personally.

00:59:37.740 | I'm just trying to,

00:59:38.940 | this is where folks are coming from.

00:59:40.440 | Right?

00:59:40.640 | There are alternative ways to make the dairy.

00:59:42.440 | There are alternative ways to feed the cows.

00:59:44.240 | They're all or you know,

00:59:45.540 | well,

00:59:45.840 | to produce right here's where I think you're going with that which could make sense,

00:59:49.140 | which is okay.

00:59:49.940 | You're saying there is a pollution externality here being created by the farmers.

00:59:54.440 | Well,

00:59:54.840 | exactly to basically internalize the externality.

00:59:56.940 | We need to capture the cost of that.

00:59:58.940 | So what you could do is gradually introduce some sort of permit system,

01:00:02.540 | you know,

01:00:02.840 | or a tradable permit system right where that would incentivize the creation of these technologies that you're talking about.

01:00:08.540 | You want to do.

01:00:08.840 | I do it gradually.

01:00:09.640 | So you don't destroy the livelihoods of these farmers who've been doing it for generations.

01:00:14.040 | So that would probably be the approach you'd want to take.

01:00:16.940 | I agree with you.

01:00:18.040 | By the way,

01:00:18.340 | I think that I think that is what is going to happen around the world is that that sort of cap and trade or taxation system is going to get slowly rolled out for a lot of these externality costs in production and industry and agriculture particularly because there are technological alternatives and it will incentivize the switch to those alternatives because the alternatives will cost less than the taxes.

01:00:37.040 | Sacks based on what you're saying.

01:00:38.740 | Is one of the problems here that these technocrats these professional politicians,

01:00:42.940 | they don't actually have great strategic thoughtful,

01:00:47.040 | you know,

01:00:47.740 | real world experience to do planning,

01:00:50.040 | you know,

01:00:50.340 | looking at Germany their inability to see the writing on the wall of what building a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany and shutting down nukes would do.

01:00:58.640 | It just seems like over and over.

01:00:59.640 | They're just really bad strategic thinkers combined with this future.

01:01:03.640 | You're wrong.

01:01:04.540 | No,

01:01:04.740 | Jason,

01:01:05.540 | they are influenced by these cultural elites.

01:01:08.640 | Who they want to be a favorite group.

01:01:10.640 | Think it's a lot of group.

01:01:11.740 | That's what I was.

01:01:12.440 | My second boss.

01:01:13.140 | Yeah,

01:01:13.340 | behind the group think is a class bias,

01:01:15.840 | right?

01:01:16.040 | They only associate with other members of the professional class who have,

01:01:20.240 | you know,

01:01:20.740 | basically graduate degrees.

01:01:23.040 | They don't even interact with these Farmers just like the just like the legislators making covid rules.

01:01:29.540 | The health experts never interact with Canadian truckers.

01:01:32.340 | So there's a huge amount of class prejudice saying that these people just don't matter.

01:01:37.540 | We can force them.

01:01:38.540 | To obey our rules.

01:01:39.840 | And if they don't like it will confiscate their farms.

01:01:42.540 | And by the way,

01:01:43.540 | the rest of you you're going to have to learn to eat bugs or tofu or Tempe or recycled excrement or whatever.

01:01:50.040 | I was the DeSantis.

01:01:50.940 | What was your DeSantis was the DeSantis?

01:01:52.940 | But what did you have on there?

01:01:54.840 | Was it some mozzarella?

01:01:55.840 | I had a roast beef as a beautiful roast beef.

01:01:58.640 | Beautiful roast beef by DeSantis.

01:02:00.340 | Brought to you by DeSantis.

01:02:02.340 | It's going to become a meme after this episode.

01:02:04.640 | I have prosciutto cotto.

01:02:06.540 | Is the best market campaign ever.

01:02:08.440 | He's a lock for president.

01:02:09.940 | Jekyll.

01:02:10.440 | I had prosciutto cotto with brie white truffle cream and lemon.

01:02:13.740 | I mean,

01:02:14.040 | did you have the white truffle on it?

01:02:15.340 | That's like a plus.

01:02:16.840 | What's that pro?

01:02:17.540 | This is a euros.

01:02:18.640 | No, it's like eight euros.

01:02:19.540 | Your rose.

01:02:20.340 | Yeah, bring some back.

01:02:21.640 | Bring some back.

01:02:22.840 | Wait, I want to say something about this.

01:02:24.540 | The Democrats embrace this agenda wholeheartedly because if we get all the voters who want to eat roast beef,

01:02:31.040 | I'm pretty sure that's a super majority in this country.

01:02:33.740 | The way to solve this freeburg is with the right economic incentives.

01:02:37.540 | There's no reason.

01:02:38.340 | Why the Dutch government had to go and basically put thousands of farmers out of business.

01:02:43.340 | Instead.

01:02:43.840 | What they could have done is actually created the tax incentive that allowed farmers to adopt some of these bleeding edge technologies when they were probably too expensive to make it economically equivalent that I mean,

01:02:55.340 | by the way,

01:02:55.740 | that is not a newfangled idea.

01:02:57.940 | This is not genius talk here.

01:02:59.840 | So the reason why they don't do the obvious simple thing is class bias.

01:03:04.440 | It is exactly what David said.

01:03:05.940 | It is the influence of people.

01:03:07.440 | It's cool.

01:03:08.240 | Hold on.

01:03:09.140 | Who look down on these people.

01:03:10.840 | Yeah.

01:03:11.240 | Okay, and who believe that they are more virtuous because of their desire to defend climate change.

01:03:18.240 | There's also a pragmatic piece of this.

01:03:19.840 | This reminds me the cold debates.

01:03:21.140 | We had there are 62,000 coal miners in this country.

01:03:24.840 | Like this is a small number of people who were impacted.

01:03:27.140 | We could just you know, basically give them severance or in a soft landing instead of the you know,

01:03:33.440 | this crazy or or let them continue to do their job and egress.

01:03:38.140 | And then they're going to be like,

01:03:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:03:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:04:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:05:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:06:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:07:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:08:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:09:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:10:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:11:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:12:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:13:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:14:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:15:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:16:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:17:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:18:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:19:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:20:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:21:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:26.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:27.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:28.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:29.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:30.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:31.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:32.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:33.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:34.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:35.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:36.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:37.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:38.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:39.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:40.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:41.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:42.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:43.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:44.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:45.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:46.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:47.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:48.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:49.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:50.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:51.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:52.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:53.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:54.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:55.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:56.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:57.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:58.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:22:59.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:00.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:01.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:02.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:03.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:04.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:05.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:06.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:07.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:08.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:09.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:10.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:11.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:12.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:13.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:14.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:15.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:16.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:17.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:18.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:19.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:20.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:21.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:22.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:23.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:24.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:25.140 | I'm going to go to the next level.

01:23:26.140 | I'm going all in

01:23:29.780 | Thank you.

01:23:29.900 | ♪ ♪

01:23:31.200 | Thank you.

01:23:31.260 | Thank you.

E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps

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