back to indexKyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Chapters
0:0 Introduction
0:55 High School Robotics
2:35 Battle Bots
4:20 Wedges
5:22 Software
7:10 Programming
8:27 Artificial Intelligence
10:40 Deep Learning
11:51 Entrepreneurship
12:52 DARPA Grand Challenge
14:0 AI in Autonomous Vehicles
15:17 DARPA Challenges
16:46 Leaving MIT
18:5 No regrets
18:45 Brave decision
19:15 Failure
22:54 Cruise Automation
25:45 How to solve the problem
27:41 Retrofit
29:49 Detroit vs Silicon Valley
32:37 The culture gap
35:9 The biggest opportunity to make money
37:47 Personality of the car
39:44 Emotional release
45:32 Autonomous Vehicles
47:58 Building a Successful Startup
50:10 Y Combinator vs VC Route
51:54 Philosophical existential
53:48 What does 2019 hold for Crew
00:00:00.000 |
The following is a conversation with Kyle Vogt. 00:00:02.240 |
He's the president and the CTO of Cruise Automation, 00:00:05.040 |
leading an effort to solve one of the biggest 00:00:07.880 |
robotics challenges of our time, vehicle automation. 00:00:10.800 |
He's a co-founder of two successful companies, 00:00:13.040 |
Twitch and Cruise, that have each sold for a billion dollars. 00:00:16.960 |
And he's a great example of the innovative spirit 00:00:22.080 |
and now is facing an interesting and exciting challenge 00:00:25.680 |
of matching that spirit with the mass production 00:00:29.960 |
and the safety-centric culture of a major automaker, 00:00:34.360 |
This conversation is part of the MIT Artificial General 00:00:40.960 |
If you enjoy it, please subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, 00:00:44.760 |
or simply connect with me on Twitter @LexFriedman, 00:00:49.720 |
And now, here's my conversation with Kyle Vogt. 00:00:57.680 |
hidden over there, so I'm a little bit worried 00:01:02.440 |
you joined Shawnee Mission North High School Robotics Team. 00:01:09.280 |
- That's right, that was the only high school in the area 00:01:12.160 |
that had a teacher who was willing to sponsor 00:01:20.440 |
- I was trying to look super cool and intense, 00:01:25.640 |
So we're standing there with a welded steel frame 00:01:30.240 |
- So go back there, what is that drew you to robotics? 00:01:33.800 |
- Well, I think, I've been trying to figure this out 00:01:36.440 |
for a while, but I've always liked building things 00:01:37.880 |
with Legos, and when I was really, really young, 00:01:39.880 |
I wanted the Legos that had motors and other things, 00:01:42.320 |
and then, you know, Lego Mindstorms came out, 00:01:44.800 |
and for the first time, you could program Lego contraptions, 00:01:48.200 |
and I think things just sort of snowballed from that. 00:02:01.160 |
and not knowing a whole lot about how to build 00:02:06.840 |
So I sort of obsessively poured over the internet forums 00:02:14.320 |
you know, document their build progress and everything, 00:02:17.080 |
and I think I read, I must've read like, you know, 00:02:29.840 |
and ended up doing BattleBots, which was, you know, 00:02:33.720 |
I was like 13 or 14, which was pretty awesome. 00:02:39.440 |
there's not an artificial intelligence component, 00:02:44.160 |
and it's almost like a mechanical engineering challenge 00:02:51.320 |
and I think that they allowed some limited form of autonomy, 00:03:00.320 |
by trying to automate it versus just, you know, 00:03:02.280 |
do the practical thing, which is drive it yourself. 00:03:27.880 |
this radio controlled machine that can do various things, 00:03:30.840 |
if it has like a weapon or something was pretty interesting. 00:03:37.240 |
which I, you know, sort of gravitated towards later on, 00:03:40.280 |
but it was definitely an engineering challenge, 00:03:42.640 |
because everything you did in that competition 00:03:54.840 |
like on the front of a pickup truck or something, 00:04:05.320 |
you can get, you know, a significant increase 00:04:07.920 |
in the power output of those motors before they burn out. 00:04:10.520 |
And so you're doing the same thing for your battery packs, 00:04:26.120 |
Or was there a reckless, let's just go with it and see. 00:04:38.120 |
'cause a wedge, even though it's sort of boring to look at, 00:04:56.200 |
- Pretty ineffective actually, but it looks cool. 00:05:00.840 |
- No, it was just to try to poke holes in the other robot. 00:05:05.960 |
which is the following, I think maybe 18 months later, 00:05:23.880 |
- So great, so that's kind of on the hardware side. 00:05:32.460 |
So what was the first piece of code you've written? 00:05:47.800 |
I think maybe when I was in third or fourth grade, 00:05:57.760 |
something would crash or wouldn't start up correctly, 00:06:01.320 |
and it would dump you out to what I later learned 00:06:07.600 |
actually remember this to this day for some reason, 00:06:12.160 |
which is peripheral six, which is the disk drive, 00:06:13.840 |
which would fire up the disk and load the program. 00:06:15.920 |
And I just remember thinking, wow, she's like a hacker, 00:06:23.580 |
And so it wasn't until I think about fifth grade 00:06:35.640 |
and you have to leave enough space between the numbers 00:06:45.640 |
And if you need to add code in front of that, 00:06:48.960 |
and you hope you don't run out of line numbers 00:07:00.800 |
that's when, you know, when you first program, 00:07:03.560 |
It's like, it just, just like this world opens up with, 00:07:16.040 |
What did you, was there a computer programming, 00:07:21.080 |
So it was self-taught, but I did a lot of programming. 00:07:27.240 |
sort of pushed me in the path of eventually working 00:07:29.360 |
on self-driving cars is actually one of these 00:07:32.360 |
really long trips driving from my house in Kansas 00:07:41.480 |
I think my learner's permit or early driver's permit. 00:07:49.840 |
where it's just, you're going straight on a highway 00:07:54.960 |
with my sort of mediocre programming background 00:07:58.080 |
that this is something that a computer can do, right? 00:08:25.100 |
and then, you know, progress to what we're doing now. 00:08:28.320 |
- So what was your view of artificial intelligence 00:08:34.320 |
there's been waves in artificial intelligence, right? 00:08:56.960 |
localizes itself in the world, moves around the world? 00:09:15.080 |
yellow lane markers out of an image of a road 00:09:21.240 |
reasonably well to those heuristic based methods. 00:09:23.560 |
You know, like just do a threshold on the color yellow 00:09:32.280 |
- Traffic light detection and stop sign detection, 00:09:39.840 |
I was just trying to make something that would stay 00:09:45.160 |
the full, you know, set of capabilities needed 00:09:58.000 |
just to get the scaffolding in place for your system. 00:10:00.720 |
Traffic light detection, probably a really simple, 00:10:08.640 |
a deep learning based technique or something else. 00:10:11.080 |
And, you know, back in when I was doing this, 00:10:12.800 |
my first one, it was on a Pentium 233 megahertz computer 00:10:17.360 |
and I think I wrote the first version in basic, 00:10:30.440 |
any sort of reasonable deep nets like you have today. 00:10:33.480 |
So I don't know what kids these days are doing. 00:10:43.040 |
like 11, 12 year olds saying, I'm having, you know, 00:10:46.160 |
I'm trying to follow this TensorFlow tutorial 00:10:50.760 |
And their general approach in the deep learning community 00:11:01.320 |
you can separate the autonomous driving problem 00:11:04.800 |
into modules and try to solve it sort of rigorously. 00:11:09.080 |
And most people just kind of love the idea that, 00:11:17.040 |
do the same kind of thing when you're on nets. 00:11:20.920 |
you don't want to criticize that kind of thinking 00:11:27.600 |
to explore that as a really exciting approach. 00:11:37.240 |
It's kind of exciting to see when these teenagers grow up. 00:11:40.920 |
- Yeah, I can only imagine if your starting point is, 00:11:46.720 |
where you end up, you know, after 10 or 15 years of that. 00:11:51.040 |
- Because of GitHub, because the state of the art tools 00:11:55.440 |
in artificial intelligence are within a few lines of code 00:12:08.520 |
about entrepreneurship before you came to college? 00:12:11.960 |
Is sort of doing, you're building this into a thing 00:12:17.800 |
- Yeah, I've always wanted to start a company. 00:12:19.840 |
I think that's, you know, just a cool concept 00:12:22.600 |
of creating something and exchanging it for value 00:12:28.360 |
So in high school, I was trying to build like, 00:12:31.120 |
you know, servo motor drivers, little circuit boards 00:12:33.600 |
and sell them online or other things like that. 00:12:36.960 |
And certainly knew at some point I wanted to do a startup, 00:12:47.520 |
the smart people around you and some free time. 00:12:57.080 |
- And that's when the first DARPA Grand Challenge 00:13:03.360 |
So how'd you get yourself involved in that one? 00:13:09.560 |
And so a bunch of undergrads, myself included, 00:13:14.200 |
and tried to haggle together some sponsorships. 00:13:21.640 |
And so we had, our team was probably mostly freshmen 00:13:24.680 |
and sophomores, which was not really a fair fight 00:13:27.960 |
against maybe the postdoc and faculty-led teams 00:13:46.800 |
the one and only steering motor that we had purchased, 00:13:52.400 |
to turn the steering wheel on the truck, died. 00:13:55.840 |
And so our vehicle was just dead in the water, 00:13:57.880 |
couldn't steer, so we didn't make it very far. 00:14:03.080 |
Was there, like how did your view of autonomous vehicles 00:14:06.240 |
in terms of artificial intelligence evolve in this moment? 00:14:14.120 |
but really that was the birth of the modern wave, 00:14:16.800 |
the thing that captivated everyone's imagination 00:14:29.080 |
- I'd say at that point in time it was a curiosity, 00:14:38.520 |
and the purpose of that original DARPA Grand Challenge, 00:14:45.600 |
of really brilliant people exploring the space 00:14:49.960 |
And I think like to this day that DARPA Challenge 00:14:56.240 |
was probably one of the most effective uses of taxpayer 00:15:03.400 |
because that small sort of initiative that DARPA put out 00:15:08.400 |
sort of, in my view, was the catalyst or the tipping point 00:15:12.600 |
for this whole next wave of autonomous vehicle development. 00:15:17.200 |
- So let me jump around a little bit on that point. 00:15:20.320 |
They also did the Urban Challenge, where it was in the city, 00:15:23.280 |
but it was very artificial and there's no pedestrians, 00:15:47.340 |
to also kind of help out, like challenge with new ideas, 00:15:55.920 |
- Well, I haven't thought about it from that perspective. 00:16:07.080 |
because like kickstarting and spinning up the flywheel 00:16:15.860 |
this has become like commercially interesting 00:16:21.420 |
and the amount of people like going through your class 00:16:24.520 |
and learning about these things and developing these skills 00:16:27.260 |
is just orders of magnitude more than it was back then. 00:16:39.980 |
I think they can just say mission accomplished 00:16:42.220 |
and move on to the next area of technology that needs help. 00:17:07.740 |
actually on eBay for about a quarter million bucks, 00:17:34.400 |
on a one-way ticket and basically never went back. 00:17:52.580 |
which morphed into a live video streaming platform, 00:17:57.160 |
which then morphed into what is Twitch today. 00:18:10.700 |
I mean, if we just pause on that for a second, 00:18:19.460 |
You didn't think it was just follow the heart kind of thing? 00:18:23.620 |
but just trying something for a month during IAP 00:18:28.180 |
And then, well, maybe I'll take a semester off, 00:18:41.960 |
I felt like I could always hit the undo button if I had to. 00:18:45.800 |
But nevertheless, from when you look in retrospect, 00:18:51.360 |
that it would be difficult for a lot of people to make. 00:18:55.480 |
I'd say the general flux of people out of MIT at the time 00:19:16.240 |
So there's a story about midnight of March 18, 2007, 00:19:23.720 |
announced Justin.TV earlier than it was supposed to, 00:19:30.340 |
I don't know if any of this is true, you can tell me. 00:19:43.960 |
that the article I read quoted Justin Khan said 00:19:48.120 |
that you were known for zero coding through problems 00:19:50.800 |
and being a creative, quote, "creative genius." 00:19:53.480 |
So on that night, what was going through your head, 00:20:02.480 |
What's your approach to solving these kinds of problems 00:20:10.840 |
Well, first of all, that's nice of Justin to say that. 00:20:13.360 |
I think I would have been maybe 21 years old then 00:20:28.120 |
this live streaming camera backpack up and running 00:20:47.080 |
to launch the company and do the press thing. 00:20:55.780 |
they're not gonna announce it until maybe 10 a.m. 00:21:13.280 |
like how complicated was the system at that point? 00:21:18.860 |
So to get a live video feed that looked decent 00:21:32.160 |
and sort of spray it across these three or four modems 00:21:35.600 |
and then try to catch all the packets on the other side, 00:21:37.840 |
you know, with unreliable cell phone networks. 00:21:54.460 |
Every once in a while, the image would go staticky 00:21:56.840 |
and there would be this horrible, like screeching audio 00:22:02.080 |
And this would happen like every five to 10 minutes or so. 00:22:04.600 |
And it was a really off putting to the viewers. 00:22:10.200 |
What was the, you just freaking out behind a computer? 00:22:13.260 |
There's, are there other folks working on this problem? 00:22:22.040 |
Yeah, it's a little lonely 'cause there's four of us 00:22:23.840 |
working on the company and only two people really wrote code 00:22:26.840 |
and Emmett wrote the website and the chat system 00:22:29.200 |
and I wrote the software for this video streaming device 00:22:33.340 |
And so, you know, it was my sole responsibility 00:22:37.280 |
And I think it's those, you know, setting deadlines, 00:22:42.180 |
where you're in that moment of intense pressure 00:22:46.920 |
And so even though that was a terrible moment, 00:22:48.800 |
I look back on it fondly 'cause that's like, you know, 00:22:50.740 |
that's one of those character defining moments, I think. 00:22:54.380 |
- So in 2013, October, you founded Cruise Automation. 00:23:00.300 |
- So progressing forward, another exceptionally successful 00:23:04.180 |
company was acquired by GM in '16 for $1 billion. 00:23:08.700 |
But in October of 2013, what was on your mind? 00:23:19.820 |
one of the hardest robotics, most important impact 00:23:30.480 |
But the work was, the result was entertainment, mostly. 00:23:40.360 |
and then, you know, make money on the ad revenues 00:23:46.260 |
but I figured like, you know, what is really the point 00:23:51.100 |
and developing these skills other than, you know, 00:23:54.220 |
And I realized I wanted something that scratched 00:23:59.380 |
And so I basically made this list of requirements 00:24:03.660 |
for a new, if I was gonna do another company, 00:24:06.140 |
and the one thing I knew in the back of my head 00:24:07.980 |
that Twitch took like eight years to become successful. 00:24:12.300 |
And so whatever I do, I better be willing to commit, 00:24:16.980 |
And when you think about things from that perspective, 00:24:23.180 |
So for me, the three things were it had to be something 00:24:25.820 |
where the technology itself determines the success 00:24:28.180 |
of the product, like hard, really juicy technology problems, 00:24:33.580 |
And then it had to have a direct and positive impact 00:24:37.660 |
So an example would be like, you know, healthcare, 00:24:41.580 |
other things where there's a clear connection 00:24:45.180 |
And the last one is it had to be a big business 00:24:53.820 |
and I made like, I tried writing a Gmail clone 00:24:57.620 |
And then it just sort of light bulb went off, 00:24:59.460 |
like self-driving cars, like that was the most fun 00:25:04.020 |
And like, well, what's the state of the technology? 00:25:12.700 |
the only other thing out there really at the time 00:25:16.660 |
And I thought, surely there's a way to, you know, 00:25:19.580 |
have an entrepreneur mindset and sort of solve 00:25:23.500 |
And so I just took the plunge right then and there 00:25:25.200 |
and said, this is something I know I can commit 10 years to. 00:25:27.860 |
It's probably the greatest applied AI problem 00:25:32.460 |
- And if it works, it's gonna be both a huge business 00:25:34.220 |
and therefore like probably the most positive impact 00:25:40.940 |
I went all in on cruise immediately and got to work. 00:25:45.540 |
- Did you have an idea how to solve this problem? 00:25:49.620 |
You know, slow, like we just had Oliver for Voyage here, 00:26:07.220 |
Or was it sort of more fuzzy and gray area than that? 00:26:15.820 |
Google had been putting a lot of money into that project. 00:26:28.620 |
So I thought, what can I do to sort of go from zero 00:27:14.040 |
The only thing that really changed along the way 00:27:21.740 |
and enough of a signal that this was something 00:27:25.060 |
that after about a year of working on the highway autopilot, 00:27:28.460 |
we had it working, you know, at a prototype stage, 00:27:33.180 |
and said, we're gonna go all in on driverless cars 00:27:41.660 |
- The idea of retrofit is kind of interesting. 00:27:48.000 |
is it something that's still in the back of your mind 00:27:52.840 |
- Not at all, I've come full circle on that one. 00:27:58.960 |
and I'll touch on some of the complexities of that, 00:28:05.480 |
and how a vehicle is developed and validated, 00:28:15.280 |
it's pretty hard to get there with a retrofit, 00:28:20.520 |
it creates a whole bunch of new complications 00:28:22.320 |
around liability or how did you truly validate that, 00:28:27.520 |
and causes your system to fail, whose fault is it? 00:28:43.000 |
There's basically an infinite list of long tail issues 00:28:46.240 |
and if you're dealing with a safety critical product, 00:29:12.780 |
we started with an Audi S4 as the vehicle we retrofitted 00:29:18.800 |
and we had kind of assumed that if we just knock out 00:29:23.360 |
that'll cover like 80% of the San Francisco market. 00:29:27.440 |
a BMW or a Honda Civic, or one of these three cars? 00:29:31.400 |
and we found out that it's all over the place. 00:29:36.660 |
we'd have to support like 20 or 50 different models, 00:29:43.480 |
that retrofit integration and custom hardware and all this. 00:30:09.360 |
The difference between the gap between Detroit 00:30:24.820 |
- I wanna start by acknowledging that GM is made up 00:30:30.220 |
motivated people who wanna be a part of the future. 00:30:32.720 |
And so it's pretty fun to work within the attitude 00:30:42.340 |
And I think that's a testament to the leadership at GM 00:30:52.020 |
So that starting from that position makes it a lot easier. 00:30:55.180 |
So then when the people in San Francisco at Cruise 00:31:02.900 |
which is that we really want this stuff to work 00:31:07.440 |
That's not to say those two cultures don't clash. 00:31:17.940 |
and sort of the reward system is following the processes, 00:31:22.540 |
delivering the program on time and on budget. 00:31:26.020 |
So any sort of risk-taking is discouraged in many ways 00:31:39.540 |
Whereas I think most Silicon Valley companies 00:31:43.740 |
and in Cruise and the methodology we were employing, 00:31:48.180 |
especially around the time of the acquisition, 00:31:56.060 |
or coming up with crazy ideas that 90% of them won't work. 00:32:02.860 |
of sort of continuous improvement and experimentation 00:32:08.420 |
so that you never slip a deadline or miss a budget 00:32:18.300 |
And I'd say like, the investment we made in figuring out 00:32:21.740 |
how to work together successfully and who should do what 00:32:30.900 |
'cause I think we have this really powerful thing. 00:32:33.460 |
both GM and Cruise were very steep on the learning curve. 00:32:39.980 |
'cause that's how to revolutionize the transportation, 00:32:49.660 |
I have people like Laura has come up to me all the time, 00:33:01.220 |
because the entire infrastructure is really based, 00:33:13.860 |
Of course, lawyers don't wanna be replaced with an app, 00:33:30.340 |
- I mean, I'm pretty sure nobody in Silicon Valley 00:33:42.740 |
So you're optimistic about the future of that? 00:33:45.180 |
- Yeah, I mean, from what I've seen, it's impressive. 00:33:47.460 |
And I think like, especially in Silicon Valley, 00:33:53.100 |
for over a hundred years now in this country. 00:33:54.900 |
And so it seems like that's a solved problem, 00:33:58.820 |
And I think it would be easy to sort of overlook that 00:34:02.260 |
and think that we're Silicon Valley engineers, 00:34:09.540 |
therefore it's not a real engineering challenge. 00:34:19.340 |
that occurs inside of an automotive assembly plant, 00:34:29.500 |
And so to have partners who have done that for a hundred 00:34:31.660 |
years now, these great processes and this huge infrastructure 00:34:34.060 |
and supply base that we can tap into is just remarkable 00:34:38.780 |
because the scope and surface area of the problem 00:34:43.780 |
of deploying fleets of self-driving cars is so large 00:34:47.420 |
that we're constantly looking for ways to do less 00:34:50.340 |
so we can focus on the things that really matter more. 00:34:52.940 |
And if we had to figure out how to build and assemble 00:35:01.620 |
but if we had to develop all that capability in-house 00:35:13.940 |
at the MIT DARPA challenge when there was what the motor 00:35:16.820 |
that failed, if somebody that knows what they're doing 00:35:20.060 |
- That would have been nice if we could focus 00:35:21.460 |
on the software and not the hardware platform. 00:35:27.140 |
there's so many ways that autonomous vehicles 00:35:29.980 |
can impact society in the next year, five years, 10 years. 00:35:39.380 |
sort of make it a financially viable thing in the near term? 00:35:44.740 |
What do you think would be the biggest impact there? 00:36:09.460 |
It's very different if your vehicle drives 100,000 miles 00:36:14.780 |
And then if you have a fleet, it's kind of like an airplane 00:36:21.100 |
where, or an airline where once you produce the vehicle, 00:36:27.900 |
as many hours a day as possible producing revenue. 00:36:40.140 |
because that's pretty clear that there's demand for that. 00:36:49.260 |
And I think that there are some real benefits 00:36:56.020 |
for people who use ride share services today. 00:37:02.420 |
all these benefits versus the current product. 00:37:08.020 |
which you've seen a lot of activity in the last, 00:37:09.600 |
really in the last six or 12 months is, you know, delivery, 00:37:12.540 |
whether that's parcels and packages, food or groceries. 00:37:19.700 |
opportunities that are pretty ripe for these, 00:37:23.420 |
you know, once you have this core technology, 00:37:28.100 |
there's all sorts of different business opportunities 00:37:34.580 |
is that there's zero monetization opportunity 00:37:44.160 |
is sort of in this holding pattern right now. 00:37:45.940 |
- Yeah, they're trying to achieve that baseline. 00:38:01.240 |
And, you know, when you get into an Uber or Lyft, 00:38:04.620 |
you don't get to choose the driver in a sense 00:38:09.140 |
Do you think there's room to define the personality 00:38:20.100 |
one of the biggest challenges in autonomous driving 00:38:22.780 |
is the trade-off between sort of safety and assertiveness. 00:38:27.780 |
And do you think there's any room for the human 00:38:36.100 |
Sort of accept some of the liability, I guess. 00:38:38.140 |
- I wouldn't, no, I'd say within reasonable bounds, 00:38:41.020 |
as in we're not gonna, I think it'd be highly unlikely 00:38:46.260 |
you know, significantly increase safety risk. 00:38:50.220 |
I think that's just not something we'd be willing to do. 00:38:56.700 |
are you gonna relax the comfort constraints slightly 00:39:00.100 |
All of those things make sense and are plausible. 00:39:02.340 |
I see all those as, you know, nice optimizations. 00:39:12.500 |
that if you sort of slam your foot on the gas 00:39:19.700 |
But the actual impact of doing that is pretty small. 00:39:28.720 |
the pedal to the floor when the light turns green, 00:39:30.980 |
they're gonna get you there within, you know, 00:39:37.780 |
So I think there's this sort of self-deception 00:39:59.140 |
somebody said it's like the real world version 00:40:02.980 |
So you have this protection, this mental protection, 00:40:06.660 |
like release your anger, whatever it's about. 00:40:21.140 |
But I think to sort of even just put that aside, 00:40:25.860 |
that's the focus, that's the thing you need to solve, 00:40:28.140 |
and then the fun human things can be solved after. 00:40:30.940 |
But so from the baseline of just solving autonomous driving, 00:40:36.000 |
one of the more difficult cities to operate in. 00:40:38.960 |
What is, in your view, currently the hardest aspect 00:41:04.240 |
I like what you said about the psychology aspect of this, 00:41:20.120 |
60 minutes of your life you're not getting back. 00:41:30.600 |
And if you compare that to people being on the road, 00:41:34.080 |
if another vehicle, whether it's a human driver 00:41:36.320 |
or autonomous vehicle, delays them by even three seconds, 00:41:41.900 |
even though that's 1/1000th of the time they waste 00:41:46.380 |
So there's definitely some psychology aspects of this, 00:41:54.940 |
do they even notice these three-second delays anymore? 00:41:58.940 |
or reading, or working, or just talking to each other. 00:42:01.740 |
So it'll be interesting to see where that goes. 00:42:03.220 |
- In a certain aspect, people need to be distracted 00:42:06.380 |
by something entertaining, something useful inside the car, 00:42:09.180 |
so they don't pay attention to the external world. 00:42:16.460 |
and then focus on that as opposed to sort of interacting, 00:42:19.680 |
sort of putting the emotion out there into the world. 00:42:23.220 |
So it's an interesting problem, but baseline autonomy. 00:42:26.980 |
- I guess you could say self-driving cars at scale 00:42:29.660 |
will lower the collective blood pressure of society 00:42:37.520 |
So back to your question about the technology 00:42:43.820 |
And I have a hard time answering that question 00:42:47.900 |
like specifically focusing on driverless cars 00:42:58.180 |
I felt like we had completed the functionality needed 00:43:07.380 |
or if we need to drive around a double parked vehicle 00:43:17.900 |
And so the challenge is not any one scenario or situation 00:43:25.580 |
It's more, we're benchmarking against a pretty good 00:43:29.000 |
or pretty high standard, which is human driving. 00:43:35.020 |
and unexpected scenarios where computers are the opposite. 00:43:38.460 |
And so beating that baseline set by humans is the challenge. 00:43:43.140 |
And so what we've been doing for quite some time now 00:43:46.580 |
is basically it's this continuous improvement process 00:43:55.060 |
or the things that could lead to a safety issue, 00:44:08.060 |
And we just see sort of the overall performance 00:44:10.180 |
of the system actually increasing in a pretty steady clip. 00:44:15.380 |
There's actually like thousands of little things 00:44:19.900 |
and making sure that it handles every version 00:44:26.120 |
by either applying more deep learning systems 00:44:37.180 |
We're sort of in the unsexy phase of development right now, 00:44:41.820 |
that it takes to go from prototype to production. 00:44:52.940 |
both with human experts and machine learning methods 00:45:04.860 |
where you've crossed that threshold of human performance 00:45:13.560 |
that AV capability will tap out anywhere near humans. 00:45:17.560 |
Like there's no reason it couldn't be 20 times better, 00:45:20.300 |
whether that's just better driving or safer driving 00:45:24.260 |
or even a thousand times better given enough time. 00:45:26.820 |
And we intend to basically chase that forever 00:45:33.940 |
and always new edge cases come up and new experiences. 00:45:45.180 |
when do you think we may have hundreds of thousands 00:45:50.200 |
So first of all, predictions, nobody knows the future. 00:45:58.520 |
But if you think about hundreds of thousands of vehicles, 00:46:17.140 |
who is, we should have had that two years ago? 00:46:19.540 |
- Well, I mean, I'd love to have it two years ago, 00:46:35.940 |
- And that's a good, that's a good rephrasing. 00:46:44.760 |
among the people developing self-driving cars today 00:46:49.440 |
is to sort of start with some form of an easier environment, 00:47:13.180 |
operating domain of the software you developed, 00:47:15.580 |
that may put a cap on how many cities you could deploy in. 00:47:18.980 |
But then as those restrictions start to fall away, 00:47:21.540 |
like maybe you add capability to drive really well 00:47:26.360 |
that probably opens up the market by two or three fold 00:47:30.320 |
in terms of the cities you can expand into and so on. 00:47:37.300 |
we could produce that many autonomous vehicles, 00:47:40.340 |
but we wouldn't be able to make use of all of them yet 00:47:42.240 |
'cause we would sort of saturate the demand in the cities 00:47:47.640 |
So if I were to guess like what the timeline is 00:47:51.920 |
and reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles. 00:47:59.680 |
- And of course you're working hard to make that happen. 00:48:03.280 |
So you started two companies that were eventually acquired 00:48:11.380 |
what does it take to build a successful startup? 00:48:13.780 |
- I think there's sort of survivor bias here a little bit, 00:48:26.820 |
I was really passionate about the core technology. 00:48:30.660 |
thinking about these problems and how to solve them. 00:48:40.480 |
Like one day you think the business is just on, 00:48:42.200 |
you're just on top of the world and unstoppable. 00:48:44.040 |
And the next day you think, okay, this is all gonna end. 00:49:05.340 |
So I've always been surrounded by really good co-founders 00:49:14.880 |
and actually his brother and a couple other guys 00:49:30.080 |
or having conviction around the original premise 00:49:32.520 |
of your idea and sticking around to do all the unsexy work 00:49:43.540 |
whether that's finance or HR or operations or those things. 00:49:50.200 |
and working towards that North Star for your business, 00:49:56.880 |
it seems like eventually you'll end up in a good place. 00:50:01.680 |
or I suppose your competitors destroying you. 00:50:03.400 |
But I think most of the time it's people giving up 00:50:08.360 |
rather than being beaten by their competition 00:50:11.400 |
- Yeah, if you never quit, eventually you'll arrive. 00:50:32.280 |
Can you do it solo or maybe with a co-founder 00:51:04.200 |
so that capital doesn't become your primary constraint. 00:51:22.080 |
And that environment I think just breeds success, right? 00:51:28.400 |
hardworking people, you're gonna feel, you know, 00:51:37.880 |
and I felt like, you know, I'm pretty self-motivated, 00:51:41.360 |
I thought like, look, this is gonna be a hard problem. 00:51:44.680 |
So surrounding myself with other entrepreneurs 00:51:57.080 |
If you go back and do something differently in your life, 00:52:00.680 |
starting in high school and MIT, leaving MIT, 00:52:05.680 |
you could have gone the PhD route, doing the startup, 00:52:19.280 |
but if you go back, you could do differently? 00:52:23.680 |
like, you know, pretty much everything you can screw up, 00:52:28.520 |
but I, you know, I don't regret those things. 00:52:32.720 |
even if it didn't go well and call it a regret, 00:52:35.600 |
it took away some new knowledge or learning from that. 00:52:47.400 |
There's a period in Justin.tv, I think after seven years, 00:52:51.280 |
where, you know, the company was going one direction, 00:53:00.880 |
And I was still working on the core technology there, 00:53:07.760 |
was not something that I was personally passionate about. 00:53:10.020 |
- It didn't meet your bar of existential impact. 00:53:12.360 |
- Yeah, and I'd say I probably spent an extra year 00:53:19.420 |
I would have just tried to do something different sooner, 00:53:23.060 |
'cause those were two years where I felt like, 00:53:25.360 |
you know, from this philosophical or existential thing, 00:53:31.440 |
And so I would have, if I could look back now 00:53:35.600 |
Like, you're not getting any meaning out of your work 00:53:44.300 |
to basically everyone who joins Cruise today. 00:53:46.000 |
It's like, hey, you've got that now by coming here. 00:53:49.880 |
of that existential dread to develop the feeling 00:53:52.440 |
that ultimately it was the fire that created Cruise. 00:54:04.640 |
but one of the big things is going from prototype 00:54:13.880 |
to cross over that threshold and reach, you know, 00:54:16.120 |
superhuman level of performance to some degree 00:54:20.940 |
of the thousands of little building blocks in place 00:54:23.320 |
to launch, you know, our first commercial product. 00:54:32.720 |
We've got a lot of brilliant people working on it. 00:54:59.040 |
I'm really excited to see what Cruise comes up with.