ABC7 Bay Area school reopening discussion: Jeremy Howard and Kristin Sze
00:00:00.000 | But first, let's focus on schools.
00:00:02.580 | Lots of various school districts are voting
00:00:04.580 | on their reopening plans this week,
00:00:06.500 | and they may be reading about a few cases from abroad
00:00:09.940 | that may raise concerns here,
00:00:11.940 | at least give them something to think about.
00:00:13.580 | So joining us is mask expert
00:00:15.560 | and University of San Francisco data scientist,
00:00:18.260 | Jeremy Howard.
00:00:19.100 | Good to see you again, Jeremy.
00:00:20.740 | - Hi there.
00:00:21.580 | - All right, let's start with the headlines
00:00:23.080 | from internationally.
00:00:24.300 | I know you're watching stories
00:00:25.620 | out of several different countries.
00:00:28.140 | Take us through some of the examples
00:00:29.940 | and what they mean for us here.
00:00:32.260 | - Sure.
00:00:33.100 | The question about the impact of schools
00:00:35.620 | on COVID-19 transmission is super complicated.
00:00:38.820 | We don't really know what's going on.
00:00:41.380 | Here's the problem.
00:00:42.220 | The problem is that normally we figure out
00:00:44.180 | what's happening with transmission using contact tracing,
00:00:46.960 | which is where we say to people,
00:00:48.300 | "Hey, who did you talk to?"
00:00:49.520 | And then we go and, you know, "Who did you hang out with?"
00:00:51.520 | And we go and see if they have COVID-19.
00:00:53.860 | Problem is, kids almost never get significant enough
00:00:57.240 | symptoms that they end up as a recorded case.
00:01:00.220 | So there's a huge amount of unrecorded transmission in kids.
00:01:04.020 | And we can see that, for example, in Sweden.
00:01:06.360 | In Sweden, they did not close down the school system.
00:01:09.060 | And then they did what's called a seroprevalence survey,
00:01:11.580 | which is where they went around to lots
00:01:12.940 | and lots of people at random and tested them.
00:01:15.540 | And it turned out kids had about as much COVID-19
00:01:19.740 | as adults did.
00:01:20.940 | So it turned out the transmission was just as bad.
00:01:23.460 | We have no reason to believe that those kids
00:01:25.540 | can't then go on to pass it on to their teachers
00:01:28.660 | and their parents and their grandparents
00:01:30.140 | just as easily as adults.
00:01:33.620 | So what we've now seen is, for example, in Israel,
00:01:36.660 | they had nearly wiped out the virus.
00:01:38.580 | They were down to 10 cases.
00:01:40.260 | They opened up schools,
00:01:41.860 | and then suddenly it's gone out of control.
00:01:43.620 | They're now growing, it looks like, faster than the U.S.
00:01:46.380 | - I think yesterday they recorded a thousand cases
00:01:49.020 | in 24 hours, right?
00:01:50.420 | So they ordered strict lockdowns again.
00:01:52.940 | But what happened and what did it have to do with schools?
00:01:55.860 | - Yeah, so what happened was Israel
00:01:57.740 | did a lot of things right.
00:01:58.940 | They had mandatory masks from early on.
00:02:01.420 | They did a lockdown of schools and other things.
00:02:04.940 | And then they kind of gradually brought schools back
00:02:07.380 | in a very safe way, small classes
00:02:09.700 | that didn't interact at all.
00:02:11.220 | They did it for two weeks.
00:02:12.460 | And then against the guidance of the health experts,
00:02:14.820 | the government said, "All right, everything's open."
00:02:17.100 | And it just was bang, everything opened up.
00:02:18.900 | And then suddenly within a month, massive outbreaks,
00:02:22.580 | we've seen the same thing in my hometown of Melbourne
00:02:24.860 | in Australia, nearly eliminated the virus.
00:02:28.220 | Schools opened and now the biggest outbreak
00:02:31.420 | in the whole country in a school over,
00:02:33.540 | I think it's about 150 people.
00:02:36.100 | It's a real worry what we're seeing in the recent weeks
00:02:39.740 | is it seems like schools can be a real transmission source.
00:02:42.900 | - Well, are they looking at what is going on
00:02:45.340 | in those schools?
00:02:46.180 | I mean, are the kids wearing their masks
00:02:48.300 | or are they defying orders?
00:02:50.220 | Are they not able to socially distance?
00:02:52.820 | Have they kind of done a deep dive into what happened?
00:02:55.420 | - No time for a deep dive yet.
00:02:58.340 | What we do know, for example,
00:02:59.700 | is in the Melbourne, Australia case,
00:03:01.660 | the school focused a lot on kind of sanitation,
00:03:04.620 | hand hygiene, cleaning of classrooms.
00:03:08.100 | They didn't have masks.
00:03:09.900 | Reporting that social distancing was poor.
00:03:12.420 | Reporting in Israel that masks were not being widely used
00:03:16.100 | in schools.
00:03:17.260 | So it seems like this respiratory virus, you know,
00:03:19.820 | is in a great situation to transfer through breathing,
00:03:24.340 | through speaking, maybe even coughing
00:03:26.180 | in this indoor environment
00:03:28.580 | where there's lots of talking going on.
00:03:30.900 | - Now each school district, as you know,
00:03:32.420 | here in California gets to make its own decision.
00:03:35.460 | What do you make of Orange County's Board of Education
00:03:38.180 | last night voting on their reopening plan
00:03:40.900 | that does not actually mandate kids wear a mask
00:03:44.460 | while on campus?
00:03:45.620 | If they were to consult you, what would you say?
00:03:49.140 | - I would say this is a real worry.
00:03:51.620 | Look, kids can wear masks.
00:03:54.900 | My four-year-old daughter refuses not to wear a mask.
00:03:57.580 | She sees all the adults around her wearing a mask.
00:03:59.660 | She sees all her friends wearing a mask.
00:04:01.340 | She has a fun, cool mask.
00:04:03.580 | Kids can wear masks, it's fine.
00:04:06.220 | And at school, it's really hard to have them distancing
00:04:09.460 | all the time, you know, kids will be kids.
00:04:11.840 | So we know that when you wear a mask,
00:04:14.420 | it means that that droplet cloud,
00:04:16.260 | that germ cloud is smaller and distancing works better.
00:04:20.620 | So it's gonna make our schools much more likely
00:04:22.700 | to be able to open faster and better and more safely
00:04:26.020 | if the children are wearing masks.
00:04:27.540 | - But what do you make of the argument
00:04:29.260 | that we've heard from some that with really young kids,
00:04:33.140 | they could wear it in an unsafe way,
00:04:35.200 | leading to more touching and more transmission,
00:04:37.580 | and then separately, the social, emotional issues, right?
00:04:40.620 | Not being able to read cues
00:04:42.160 | when they can't see all the facial expressions
00:04:43.960 | due to mask wearing.
00:04:45.620 | And maybe they would get frightened.
00:04:46.860 | What do you make of those arguments?
00:04:49.020 | - So the first one, I think it's nonsense.
00:04:51.820 | We've heard it for adults as well.
00:04:53.500 | We're told that people are not capable of wearing a mask.
00:04:56.220 | We're capable of wearing all these other pieces of clothing.
00:04:58.420 | You know, we can wear socks, we can wear underpants,
00:05:01.200 | we can wear masks.
00:05:02.180 | And even if we do it wrong,
00:05:04.620 | at least there's something covering our face.
00:05:06.500 | Even if we touch it,
00:05:07.460 | it's a lot better than touching our face with no mask.
00:05:11.420 | As for the learning, yeah, I mean,
00:05:13.960 | I don't know what to say. It really is a compromise.
00:05:16.700 | It really is tough.
00:05:17.580 | I don't know what the right answer is with schools.
00:05:20.520 | But here's the thing.
00:05:22.240 | We do know that if we have big outbreaks in schools,
00:05:25.500 | they're gonna close down and there's gonna be no learning.
00:05:28.020 | And there's gonna be no childcare,
00:05:29.700 | and there's gonna be no jobs for the teachers.
00:05:32.540 | So in the end, I think we do have to think about
00:05:35.140 | what compromises we're willing to make
00:05:36.980 | to give our kids a chance to learn.
00:05:39.660 | - I think a lot of people have also questioned
00:05:41.260 | the efficacy of masks, right?
00:05:43.260 | I read a headline today.
00:05:44.800 | I think the director for the Center for AIDS Research
00:05:47.820 | at UCSF today said, "Even if you become infected,
00:05:50.980 | "masking can still protect you from more severe disease."
00:05:54.580 | Can you explain that one?
00:05:56.520 | - Yeah, exactly.
00:05:57.360 | So what we've seen in the populations that are wearing masks,
00:06:00.540 | which is the vast majority of the world, it's required now,
00:06:03.060 | over 80% of the population and over 70% of the U.S. population
00:06:06.700 | has to wear masks legally in public spaces.
00:06:09.340 | And what we see is not only do the number of cases drop,
00:06:12.380 | but it seems the number of deaths drops
00:06:14.260 | even faster and even more.
00:06:16.260 | And we think that the reason for that
00:06:18.140 | is that the viral dose is decreased.
00:06:21.320 | Less of those virions get through the mask
00:06:24.060 | and therefore less of them infect you.
00:06:25.820 | And when you have a lower viral dose,
00:06:27.740 | a lot of virologists believe that that actually results
00:06:30.700 | in less severe symptoms and therefore less fatalities
00:06:35.700 | and less significant transmission.
00:06:38.620 | So wearing a mask is probably a good idea
00:06:40.780 | from both directions.
00:06:41.940 | - Got it.
00:06:42.780 | Yeah, because you always hear,
00:06:43.620 | "Oh, you're wearing it to protect the other person, right?
00:06:46.300 | To protect others."
00:06:47.180 | But this is suggesting that it could have some effect
00:06:50.100 | in protecting you as well.
00:06:52.580 | - Yeah, but it depends a lot on what you're using.
00:06:54.700 | You know, there is an increasing availability
00:06:56.540 | of kind of surgical masks and better quality masks.
00:06:58.980 | And these do provide a better protection to the wearer.
00:07:01.780 | - All right, well, I do wanna ask you,
00:07:02.860 | there's something cultural about wearing masks here,
00:07:05.140 | but President Trump recently wore one in public
00:07:07.820 | for the very first time while visiting Walter Reed.
00:07:10.080 | And today CDC director, Dr. Robert Redfield said
00:07:13.300 | the key to opening schools is masks,
00:07:16.060 | saying the data is really clear, they work.
00:07:18.580 | So do you think attitudes have changed
00:07:21.100 | and significantly in just the last couple of weeks?
00:07:24.140 | - Very significantly.
00:07:25.200 | Unfortunately, the thing that's made it change
00:07:27.660 | is the big outbreaks in states like Texas and Florida.
00:07:31.380 | It's kind of brought it home that this is a real virus.
00:07:35.060 | It's causing real risks and real deaths.
00:07:38.860 | And so this awareness that everybody
00:07:42.180 | can be hit by this virus,
00:07:43.540 | every place can be hit by this virus.
00:07:45.640 | So for example, in Texas, Governor Abbott
00:07:48.000 | is now requiring masks everywhere
00:07:50.420 | where there's a significant number of cases,
00:07:52.260 | more than like 20.
00:07:53.860 | And yeah, Donald Trump, you know,
00:07:56.300 | when there was an outbreak in the White House,
00:07:57.860 | he required everybody in the White House to wear them.
00:08:00.540 | And he's now, thank God, being a role model himself
00:08:04.300 | and being seen wearing a mask.
00:08:05.760 | And I think that's gonna make a huge difference.
00:08:07.820 | - All right, and as people start to wear masks more,
00:08:11.780 | and actually still debate whether or not they should,
00:08:14.300 | there have been lots of confrontations on the streets
00:08:16.700 | among strangers, right?
00:08:17.980 | Over people saying, hey, wear yours.
00:08:20.080 | No, I don't wanna wear mine.
00:08:20.920 | Or people saying, you should be wearing one.
00:08:22.220 | And people saying, I don't need to wear one right now.
00:08:23.820 | I'm not near people.
00:08:24.860 | Can you tell us the scenarios when masks are needed
00:08:28.040 | so that people know,
00:08:29.360 | so they don't need to confront each other?
00:08:31.980 | - Yeah, I mean, look, I don't confront people about masks.
00:08:35.940 | You know, we've got better things to do.
00:08:38.660 | It's more likely to cause danger
00:08:40.340 | than doing nothing, I think, right?
00:08:42.060 | So I'd like to start off by saying, don't be the police.
00:08:45.580 | Also, if you see somebody with like not over their nose,
00:08:48.700 | don't worry too much.
00:08:49.700 | That doesn't really reduce the effectiveness
00:08:51.500 | for protecting you anyway.
00:08:53.440 | But given all that, you know, where do you need a mask?
00:08:56.160 | You need them indoors when you're around people
00:08:59.300 | that you don't see all the time.
00:09:00.420 | So not your family or roommates or whatever.
00:09:03.300 | And particularly if you're closer than six feet.
00:09:06.740 | Even outdoors, if it's like, if there's no wind,
00:09:09.640 | if you're gonna be close to somebody
00:09:11.780 | for more than about 15 minutes,
00:09:14.260 | I would say that's a risky situation too.
00:09:16.580 | Now, of course, in the Bay Area,
00:09:17.980 | we have to wear them outside anyway.
00:09:19.540 | I think 30 feet is the limit.
00:09:21.900 | For me, I think that's kind of overkill.
00:09:24.260 | From a practical point of view, you know,
00:09:26.300 | I would say I'd really focus on those indoor public spaces,
00:09:29.100 | public transport, shops, stuff like that.
00:09:31.540 | - I know 30 feet is San Francisco.
00:09:34.220 | Not sure about the other counties,
00:09:35.380 | but what if you're just walking out there
00:09:37.620 | in the neighborhoods on wide streets
00:09:39.960 | and you know to avoid each other,
00:09:42.560 | kind of get over to the other side of the street
00:09:44.200 | when you see someone coming
00:09:45.160 | and you're just kind of jogging by yourself.
00:09:46.800 | Do you need to wear a mask for that?
00:09:49.140 | - Not really, I would say don't worry about it.
00:09:51.700 | Look, some people are more cautious than others
00:09:54.260 | and they might want to put a mask on in that situation,
00:09:56.680 | but I don't really think that's important.
00:09:59.420 | The transmission rates outdoors 20 times lower than indoors
00:10:04.020 | and transmission occurs when you're close to somebody
00:10:06.460 | for a period of time and there's a chance
00:10:08.380 | for that germ cloud to form.
00:10:10.020 | That's not gonna happen when you walk past somebody
00:10:11.820 | unless they like sneeze at you or something,
00:10:14.620 | which that would be bad.
00:10:15.820 | So maybe that's the one reason.
00:10:17.260 | - Well, this is not coming at you,
00:10:18.420 | but a viewer wants to know what if you're walking
00:10:20.080 | behind somebody who is not wearing a mask?
00:10:22.820 | - Yeah, it's possible.
00:10:26.300 | It's pretty speculative.
00:10:27.620 | I haven't seen examples, documented cases
00:10:30.820 | where that's led to transmission.
00:10:32.140 | Doesn't mean it's not possible.
00:10:34.340 | I would certainly be a little more cautious myself
00:10:36.920 | in that situation.
00:10:38.980 | I try not to walk straight behind people across the road
00:10:42.340 | or pass them or leave a bit of a gap.
00:10:44.500 | - All right, Jeremy Howard, always great talking to you.
00:10:47.700 | Thank you so much for that information.
00:10:49.680 | Take good care and we'll see you again soon.
00:10:51.780 | - My pleasure.
00:10:53.300 | - All right, folks, when we come back,
00:10:54.640 | we'll talk with Marin County's health officer
00:10:57.060 | about the impact of Governor Newsom's new order
00:10:59.580 | to close businesses back down.
00:11:01.500 | Be right back.
00:11:02.340 | All right, folks, it's a Tuesday
00:11:06.700 | and already a whirlwind week.
00:11:08.660 | As you know, Governor Newsom orders sweeping restrictions
00:11:11.860 | once again for most counties in California.
00:11:15.980 | And so we're talking about it because one way or another,
00:11:19.740 | it is affecting you most likely.
00:11:22.420 | And a pleasure to have Jeremy Howard on
00:11:24.660 | because he has done a lot of studies on masks,
00:11:27.780 | the efficacy of masks,
00:11:29.260 | and he's been a proponent of masks for all since March.
00:11:33.400 | And it's not really being heated
00:11:37.040 | by a majority of the population until more recently.
00:11:41.100 | And sadly, as you heard, the COVID numbers are going up.
00:11:45.460 | And so more people are wearing the masks
00:11:47.060 | and it is not hopefully too late.
00:11:49.680 | If we all try to be as safe as possible,
00:11:52.380 | hopefully that allows schools to reopen safely
00:11:54.940 | and keep the community transmission numbers down
00:11:58.180 | and the local numbers down.
00:12:00.380 | Hey folks, some of our regulars, nice to see you.
00:12:03.020 | Nice to see you.
00:12:04.220 | Lots of opinions about whether people should,
00:12:07.900 | kids should go back to school.
00:12:09.460 | Some people are advocating for distance learning.
00:12:12.660 | Other people saying you will not send your kids to school.
00:12:14.860 | Other people saying, what about the mental health aspect
00:12:17.820 | and you want your kids in school?
00:12:19.020 | Of course, they are all valid concerns.
00:12:22.620 | That is the thing.
00:12:23.740 | There's not a single right or wrong answer.
00:12:25.960 | It's kind of this constant juggling
00:12:27.820 | of ever-changing factors,
00:12:29.540 | ever-changing situations and numbers.
00:12:32.140 | And no matter which way you cut it,
00:12:33.940 | there are drawbacks and there are pluses and minuses
00:12:39.280 | no matter which decision you take and which path you take.
00:12:42.060 | Same with all these school districts.
00:12:43.660 | So, okay, well then that's our plan.
00:12:48.660 | Folks, while we wait for Marin County's Health Officer
00:12:59.060 | and Eric, how do we say the officer's name?
00:13:01.340 | Lane Hendricks?
00:13:03.100 | Okay, they'll be joining shortly.
00:13:05.060 | In the meantime, we'll continue to talk with Jeremy.
00:13:13.240 | Oh, okay.
00:13:14.080 | All right, we are back with Jeremy Howard
00:13:22.620 | of Masks for All and a USF data scientist
00:13:26.100 | talking about the importance of masking.
00:13:29.340 | I'd like to ask you if you have any more data
00:13:32.300 | with regard to the efficacy.
00:13:34.940 | And I think for the people who are mostly in the Bay Area
00:13:38.380 | are pretty convinced about wearing masks,
00:13:40.040 | but in case they're sitting there, not sure,
00:13:43.260 | any other data that's new to offer.
00:13:45.580 | Yeah, plenty.
00:13:47.580 | In fact, just this morning, I gave a presentation
00:13:49.780 | to the World Health Organization on this,
00:13:52.140 | so I am full of data, I can talk for hours.
00:13:54.540 | Great, good timing.
00:13:56.080 | Yeah, some of the most interesting data
00:13:58.780 | is what they call ecological data,
00:14:00.340 | which is looking around the world at saying,
00:14:02.340 | let's look at the places that have put in mask requirements,
00:14:04.820 | what happened before, what happened afterwards.
00:14:07.580 | Goldman Sachs actually did a really great study of that.
00:14:10.420 | They estimated that if the rest of the country
00:14:12.940 | introduced mask mandates, it would add a trillion dollars
00:14:16.260 | to the US GDP.
00:14:18.100 | Another of these, similar studies has estimated
00:14:21.820 | that already we've saved 300 to 400,000 cases
00:14:25.980 | even before the end of May
00:14:27.940 | through these mandates in the US.
00:14:29.940 | So in the US, one of the things we've really seen
00:14:32.200 | in the data is that Americans generally
00:14:35.480 | are not wearing masks until we tell them you have to.
00:14:39.220 | And then once we say you have to, they are.
00:14:41.780 | And this is not surprising 'cause the messaging
00:14:43.540 | was all over the place for a long time.
00:14:45.900 | And so this is why we now see over 70% of Americans
00:14:50.180 | live in places where they actually have to wear a mask.
00:14:53.740 | Okay, Jeremy, you also put out something
00:14:56.100 | that I thought was very interesting today,
00:14:58.160 | which is cleaning solution ingredients
00:15:01.560 | that work against coronaviruses.
00:15:03.920 | I know a lot of people are interested in this,
00:15:05.200 | so tell us what are those ingredients
00:15:07.420 | and what should we have in the house?
00:15:09.100 | I do not remember off the top of my head.
00:15:11.620 | Hopefully you can dig it up and maybe pop it on the screen.
00:15:13.460 | I will run through this with you.
00:15:15.160 | Let's see.
00:15:16.000 | I'll tell you what though, what I wrote there
00:15:18.020 | was like what I got from the Singaporean health body
00:15:20.820 | is the underlying chemicals.
00:15:22.420 | So that way you don't have to look at every brand.
00:15:24.660 | Thank goodness.
00:15:25.500 | I can't say the names of those chemicals anyway.
00:15:28.680 | But look on the bottle, right?
00:15:30.020 | So if you can put it on the screen or say them,
00:15:32.500 | look on the bottle for these particular chemicals
00:15:35.820 | because they basically all have the same thing.
00:15:37.460 | And when I looked around our house,
00:15:39.300 | we had like somehow we had six different bottles
00:15:41.500 | of cleaning fluid and five of them had these chemicals
00:15:45.840 | which were effective against coronaviruses.
00:15:47.980 | Yeah, but generally what are those products?
00:15:50.360 | Accelerated hydrogen peroxide, benzylcholineum chloride,
00:15:55.360 | coral, silanol. Yeah, so that's like bleach.
00:15:57.620 | Yeah, yeah, it's just like, you know,
00:15:59.460 | they're just the chemical names for bleach
00:16:01.020 | and stuff like that.
00:16:01.860 | So they're really normal standard kind of things.
00:16:04.420 | The other thing I wanted to mention
00:16:07.740 | which I've looked at recently is the research around masks
00:16:10.980 | for protecting the wearer, not just for protecting others.
00:16:14.300 | And there's actually a whole lot of interesting stuff
00:16:16.340 | going on there.
00:16:17.900 | You can now buy, you know,
00:16:21.060 | pieces of kind of special filter paper
00:16:23.060 | which are actually designed to protect the wearer.
00:16:25.900 | One I really like, I don't get paid for any of this,
00:16:28.140 | it's just stuff I've seen that I've bought
00:16:30.180 | is called Filtee, F-I-L-T-I,
00:16:33.620 | which is originally this company
00:16:35.740 | made like air conditioning filters
00:16:38.200 | and then they switched to mask filters
00:16:39.960 | and they've actually been tested
00:16:42.020 | on the same equipment they use for medical masks
00:16:44.260 | and it's actually getting the same level of filtration.
00:16:47.260 | And so if you now go to like Etsy,
00:16:49.580 | you can buy from hundreds of different
00:16:51.860 | kind of community DIY crafters,
00:16:54.140 | masks with these Filtee pockets
00:16:56.380 | which are gonna do a fantastic job of protecting you
00:16:59.320 | as well as the people around you.
00:17:00.660 | - Oh, I do see a lot of that, Filtee fabric.
00:17:04.300 | All right, thank you so much.
00:17:06.120 | You always have interesting advice for us
00:17:08.540 | and we appreciate it.