back to indexRPF0114-Nords_Interview
00:00:00.000 |
Get the perfect gift for the wine lover in your life at WineEnthusiast.com 00:00:20.640 |
Find the best prices on the perfect wine gift for you, I mean, for someone special this year. 00:00:29.600 |
It's really not every day that you actually get to interact with a patriarch or a godfather 00:00:36.800 |
of an industry, but today we have that chance. 00:00:40.000 |
And even better, you will like and appreciate the fact that not only is today's guest an 00:00:47.280 |
early retiree, but he's somehow figured out how to actually stay retired and not earn 00:00:57.760 |
Well, okay, he does do work, but at least he doesn't earn money doing it. 00:01:02.560 |
Welcome to the Radical Personal Finance Podcast. 00:01:23.040 |
My name is Joshua Sheets, and today is Monday, December 8, 2014. 00:01:32.160 |
If you've ever interacted at all in just about any early retirement forum or online discussion 00:01:41.520 |
Well, if you didn't see Nords, I'm sure you saw one of his Hawaiian shirts. 00:01:52.080 |
He's known for having a pair of jeans, a pair of flip-flops, and a Hawaiian shirt on just 00:01:57.840 |
about any time you meet him, and I think that's awesome. 00:02:00.560 |
These are some of the perks that you get when you are actually a financially independent 00:02:07.680 |
Also, one of the perks that you get when you leave the military and after however many 00:02:11.520 |
years of keeping your hair short, you get to grow it out into a very nice ponytail. 00:02:18.320 |
So, my guest today, as I mentioned, is a man named Doug Nordman. 00:02:23.120 |
He and his wife both retired early, and he has gone on, and well, he and his wife, they 00:02:29.040 |
live in Hawaii, and the cool thing is that they've actually stayed retired. 00:02:35.200 |
Although he does blog, he blogs at a website called themilitaryguide.com, the military 00:02:43.280 |
So, he blogs there, but he gives away all of the information, excuse me, all of the 00:02:47.360 |
revenue from the site goes away to military charities. 00:02:51.600 |
He's also written a book for retirement to give advice in the military space, and all 00:02:57.360 |
of that money, those revenues are given away as well. 00:03:00.560 |
One of the coolest things about Doug is he's been around in the early retirement space 00:03:04.480 |
for quite a while, and today, I hope you enjoy this conversation. 00:03:09.360 |
It's part personal story, personal lessons, but then it's also a good bit about the actual 00:03:18.680 |
So, Doug, welcome to the Radical Personal Finance Podcast. 00:03:26.080 |
So, I think of you, and I'm going to have you tell your story here, kind of introduce 00:03:31.920 |
yourself, but I think of you as one of the patriarchs of the early retirement space, 00:03:39.440 |
I like patriarch a lot better than geezer, but yeah, that works. 00:03:43.560 |
So, I brought you on today to talk about the history of retirement, and you are a successful 00:03:51.200 |
To the best of my knowledge, you retired early, and you've been able to stay sort of semi-retired 00:03:56.480 |
So, I'd love for you to share your personal story, and then also, primarily what we're 00:04:00.200 |
going to focus on today is talking about the history of early retirement and its evolution 00:04:04.880 |
over time, but what's your story as it surrounds money and early retirement? 00:04:09.960 |
Well, I joined the Navy right out of high school and started my career in the early 00:04:13.480 |
1980s in the submarine force and retired from that after I got my 20 years in 2002, and 00:04:21.160 |
as I was coming up on retirement in the '90s, I started trying to figure out what I wanted 00:04:25.200 |
to do with myself after I left the military, and I wasn't really happy with what looked 00:04:30.240 |
like the options and opportunities, and when my wife and I were both in the military back 00:04:37.240 |
in the '80s and '90s, we were both on active duty, and then later on, she moved from active 00:04:41.480 |
duty into the reserves, and so she and I have been a dual-income couple for our working 00:04:48.680 |
She retired from the reserves in 2008, and as we were saving our money, we were very 00:04:54.680 |
busy, as you might imagine, in the service, and it was easy to be frugal when you're 00:04:59.680 |
on sea duty or deployed or either just underway all the time working hard, and so we'd always 00:05:06.120 |
try to save at least one income whenever we could, and over the years, we noticed that 00:05:09.840 |
was compounding very nicely to the point where it was almost like having a third income in 00:05:14.440 |
the house, and as we got through the '80s and into the '90s, it became more easy to 00:05:21.520 |
calculate how much you'd need for retirement. 00:05:24.720 |
Back in the '80s, if you wanted to figure out when you could retire, you had to send 00:05:29.040 |
away for a notebook or a workbook or maybe you could get a floppy disk from a finance 00:05:36.200 |
company, and most of them would assume that you were going to retire at age 65. 00:05:40.020 |
If you wanted to retire earlier than 65, you had to figure out what math they were using 00:05:44.980 |
in their tables, and you had to do your own formulas, and you had to extrapolate your 00:05:48.800 |
own stuff, and so that wasn't even on the radar of most financial companies or most 00:05:54.560 |
planners or even most investors back in the '80s, and then in the '90s, people started 00:06:00.560 |
They were starting to see people retire earlier and realized that maybe age 65 is not the 00:06:07.920 |
In retrospect, years after it was published, I discovered a book that had been written 00:06:16.200 |
I don't know if anybody knows this one anymore. 00:06:18.360 |
It's been out of print for years, but it's called "Cashing in on the American Dream, 00:06:26.560 |
I remember finding that book when I was 41 years old, and I was thinking, "Crap, I missed 00:06:33.200 |
He was an accountant at a consulting firm, and he managed to save enough money to actually 00:06:41.100 |
That was one of the very first people that I was aware of who early retired. 00:06:48.440 |
They became world travelers, and they spent the last 30 years going from one country overseas 00:06:55.120 |
I mean, from South America to Europe to Asia, they've been everywhere. 00:06:59.520 |
What really made an impact on me and my wife was in the early '90s with the publication 00:07:04.000 |
of a book by Joe Dominguez and Vicki Robin called "Your Money or Your Life." 00:07:11.000 |
In fact, I've actually read "Cashing in on the American Dream" years ago, but "Your 00:07:14.280 |
Money or Your Life" was one of my favorites from an early age that completely shifted 00:07:20.440 |
It was still on my top 10 recommendations list. 00:07:27.240 |
I mean, Vicki's kept the website going for years and does seminars and still talks about 00:07:35.520 |
I think that was one of the first times that anybody had seen a widely publicized way to 00:07:40.600 |
save your income and get to the point where you had more passive income. 00:07:44.920 |
At that crossover point, that chart in the book is very important for a lot of people 00:07:52.240 |
As the '90s went on, we began to realize that we were getting closer and closer to that 00:07:56.420 |
I'd say by late '99, early 2000, it looked like we were probably going to make it. 00:08:02.280 |
We had been saving 50% of our income for 20 years. 00:08:06.320 |
If the math is done and you look at the safe withdrawal rate and 25 times your annual spending, 00:08:14.360 |
I retired in the summer of 2002, so it's been just over 12 years. 00:08:19.520 |
We've taken our retirement finances through two recessions and everything's worked out 00:08:25.440 |
I mean, the recession itself is not fun, but it's nice to see that your retirement savings 00:08:29.600 |
will carry you through, that your investments are working out the way they should. 00:08:33.000 |
By now, we're comfortable with volatility and we understand how things are going to 00:08:36.560 |
work and we all feel like we know what our spending is going to be. 00:08:41.200 |
From here on out, we're just enjoying ourselves. 00:08:44.000 |
You used the word semi-retired, but it's all for fun now. 00:08:48.480 |
I haven't had a W-2 or any income for 12 years. 00:08:52.680 |
I give away all the income from the book and the blog that I get to military-friendly charities 00:08:57.720 |
and that helps people want to contribute more advice and stories for future editions of 00:09:03.080 |
the book and for other books that I'm going to write someday. 00:09:05.200 |
It's what I always admired most about Joe Dominguez, author of Your Money or Your Life. 00:09:11.600 |
If everything I've read about him was correct, it seemed that when he retired, he actually 00:09:15.280 |
retired and didn't go on to try to make a bunch of money telling other people how to 00:09:20.400 |
It seemed that he really did walk his walk and just simply lived on his portfolio and 00:09:27.240 |
either gave away or he gave away, I think, income from his book and some of those other 00:09:33.880 |
By the time he died of cancer in the late '90s and by the time that was occurring, he 00:09:39.960 |
had still continued to put all of his investments in treasury bonds and he was living off of 00:09:45.520 |
treasuries and inflation was just eating away at him. 00:09:49.480 |
By the time he died, he was living in a group home and I think he was managing to live on 00:09:53.320 |
a very small amount of money, something like $8,000 or $9,000 a year. 00:09:57.200 |
So he stuck with his portfolio through the rest of his life even though Paul Terhorst, 00:10:02.360 |
the writer of Cashing in an American Dream, he started out all on certificates of deposit, 00:10:07.480 |
all on CDs in 1984, which you could do with interest rates back in 1984. 00:10:12.560 |
But even Paul by now has moved to a mix of index funds from the S&P 500. 00:10:18.520 |
But Joe did not do that and he never attempted, as near as I can tell, to profit off of Your 00:10:24.840 |
I'm sure people took care of him, but he didn't attempt to go on a world tour and make himself 00:10:32.840 |
It just seems so strange that that's always what you have to, whenever I give the book 00:10:36.320 |
away, and even in the updated version they mention this, but I always have to say, "Listen, 00:10:40.080 |
you can't necessarily do this on treasuries anymore." 00:10:43.520 |
Was he just burned by investing or do you have any idea why he was so committed to that 00:10:49.760 |
He made his first million by the time he was 29 years old, I believe, in the late 60s. 00:10:56.280 |
And I think he just felt that he'd seen enough and he wanted to do his own thing. 00:10:59.920 |
I don't know that there was any particular trigger or trauma or event, except the realization, 00:11:05.120 |
of course, that every day that he was working, he was losing that much of his life and he 00:11:11.040 |
wanted to save and be able to do his own living. 00:11:15.240 |
So when you were setting out, did any of these, and it's been at least a decade since I read 00:11:20.920 |
Cashing in an American Dream, so I don't remember anything that's in it. 00:11:23.440 |
I've tried to track down, for the show, I've tried to track down Paul. 00:11:29.240 |
If any listener knows how to get a hold of him, I'd love to interview him and some of 00:11:36.920 |
But did they talk about actually any metrics? 00:11:39.800 |
For example, today we commonly talk about 25 times annual income, but did they talk 00:11:44.000 |
about any metrics or was it more of the idea at that stage? 00:11:51.120 |
He was able to take his CPA skills and figure out how to project his cash flow and the assets 00:11:57.040 |
And what he did was look at his spending that they could achieve overseas in various inexpensive 00:12:02.600 |
third world countries and figure that out with the CDs. 00:12:07.000 |
So when they retired, 100% in CDs and they knew the income from the CDs was going to 00:12:14.320 |
Going from 17% CD rates for a six month CD back in, I don't know what year that was, 00:12:20.920 |
I would imagine your income plan would collapse if it were still based on CDs. 00:12:27.120 |
These are trained professionals and we didn't know much back then. 00:12:30.640 |
How old were you and your wife in 2002 when you retired? 00:12:33.880 |
I retired at age 41 and she was slightly behind me in age and our daughter was almost 10 years 00:12:40.880 |
I don't know if you've raised kids, but at that age it's what I refer to as the danger 00:12:45.880 |
So I was glad to be able to spend more time at home with her. 00:12:48.880 |
Yeah, my wife and I have a one year old son at the moment. 00:12:57.960 |
So if it gets better, we're excited about that. 00:13:00.600 |
How big of a role in your financial planning did the military background make? 00:13:04.960 |
And I assume you did your 20 years in order to get the full payout amount. 00:13:09.720 |
What big a role was the military pension system in your retirement? 00:13:13.920 |
It started out as barely covering a portion of the bills. 00:13:17.560 |
When you retire from the US military, you at 20 years get a pension that's based on 00:13:26.600 |
And when I say approximately, we use an average of the final three years of the highest pay 00:13:30.820 |
you've had during that 20 years and you get 50% of your base pay. 00:13:35.960 |
What that works out to in real terms is that you have your regular military paycheck and 00:13:40.720 |
your housing allowance and your food allowance and maybe some CPA or some bonus pay for other 00:13:47.640 |
And then you go and you retire, your income drops to about one third of what it was during 00:13:52.920 |
Because again, that pension is based on your base pay and you don't get any extras for 00:13:57.200 |
any of the allowances you've been earning over the years. 00:14:02.680 |
They think, "Oh, well, I'm making $80,000 a year when I retire. 00:14:05.640 |
I'll get a pension of $40,000 and life will be good." 00:14:09.760 |
If your income is $80,000 when you're on active duty, all of your income, your allowances 00:14:14.640 |
that are not taxed as well as your taxable income, when you retire, you'll be looking 00:14:19.680 |
at a pension more around $23,000, $24,000 because of that issue with base pay. 00:14:26.040 |
And back then we had retired with a mortgage on our home and we had expected that we would 00:14:33.720 |
What we anticipated was that I'd use the military pension to buy the groceries and pay the mortgage 00:14:40.200 |
and the rest of it we'd handle from our investments. 00:14:42.840 |
You know, the 4% safe withdrawal rate, we had enough investments to make that work. 00:14:48.060 |
And then, I did not anticipate this at all, but then interest rates started dropping in 00:14:53.560 |
the 2000s after the recession and we started refinancing. 00:14:58.480 |
And so, over the years, the military pension rises with a cost of living adjustment just 00:15:05.740 |
Over the years, 12 years of military retirement, my pension has risen by 27%. 00:15:12.680 |
But more importantly, we've refinanced this property enough that our mortgage payment 00:15:18.120 |
And so, today, my pension, $42,000 a year, covers almost all of our spending. 00:15:26.420 |
We could live on that $42,000 a year if we cut back and had to do that with non-discretionary 00:15:32.680 |
But of course, we spend a little more money for entertainment and travel. 00:15:36.400 |
But it's been very reassuring to know that the military pension and the inflation adjustment 00:15:40.160 |
have covered us over the years and taken care of us. 00:15:43.040 |
One other big advantage for the military retiree is cheap healthcare. 00:15:47.240 |
I don't know if you track the numbers, but military retirees can get health insurance 00:15:54.840 |
The full coverage program, TRICARE Prime, has a monthly premium of about $55 tops. 00:16:03.600 |
It rises a little bit every year with inflation, but again, it's one of the cheapest health 00:16:07.440 |
programs around and it's enabled us to retire as well. 00:16:10.800 |
If you looked at other insurance policies that you could get through the healthcare 00:16:14.480 |
exchanges through the ACA, it costs, what, eight, ten times more than that for people 00:16:21.120 |
So those two factors, cheap healthcare and the cost of living adjustment on the military 00:16:29.680 |
I've never actually worked with anybody who was on TRICARE. 00:16:33.160 |
I briefly studied it in a textbook for one of my registered health underwriter classes. 00:16:41.200 |
It always struck me as something that I wanted to research more. 00:16:45.040 |
In order to be eligible for TRICARE, do you need to do, what are the benefits, in order 00:16:49.120 |
to be eligible for TRICARE after termination of service, what are the requirements for 00:16:56.080 |
You get TRICARE Prime or TRICARE Standard when you retire from active duty. 00:17:00.280 |
When you retire from the reserves, and the reserves are a little different from active 00:17:04.380 |
duty, the reserves in National Guard, you retire and you're awaiting your pension to 00:17:11.040 |
When you retire from the reserves of the Guard, you can also get a form of TRICARE insurance. 00:17:17.740 |
That is not subsidized by the federal government, so you end up paying a fairly high premium. 00:17:21.560 |
It might be as much as $600 or $900 a month, depending on individuals or families. 00:17:27.880 |
That is a good insurance program to have to bridge the time from when you stop drilling 00:17:33.160 |
with the reserves or National Guard until you start your pension at age 60. 00:17:38.160 |
Everything else requires you to be on active duty or be in drilling status with the reserve 00:17:43.720 |
The TRICARE programs assume that you're in uniform. 00:17:49.060 |
When you get to Medicare age, you might have heard of TRICARE for Life, which is a supplemental 00:17:55.260 |
That pays a second payer to Medicare for military retirees that are age 65 or over, as soon 00:18:04.020 |
How big of a difference does military or can, because I know now you write specifically 00:18:13.240 |
How big of a difference do the other ancillary benefits in addition to salary and in addition 00:18:19.060 |
For example, housing provided, I'm not fully, my dad was in the Navy in the subs, but I've 00:18:31.020 |
How big of a difference does that make from the perspective of an early retirement? 00:18:34.620 |
Twenty, 25 years ago, it used to make a substantial difference. 00:18:38.540 |
Big box stores have cut that down quite a bit these days. 00:18:41.920 |
For example, you used to try to retire near a military base so that you had access to 00:18:45.820 |
a commissary for food and used to try to go on a base to buy cheap gasoline or to be able 00:18:53.340 |
Costco, Walmart, Sam's Club, all of those big box stores have followed up on that model. 00:19:01.580 |
You generally know what's cheaper at Costco and you know what's more expensive at Walmart 00:19:05.780 |
and you know where to buy gas on base at a good price. 00:19:09.140 |
I would say that the base access is not as significant as the cola and the healthcare. 00:19:17.240 |
Some people though, you take great comfort in being able to go on the base where you 00:19:21.200 |
know the culture and you know the places that are familiar to you. 00:19:25.420 |
You can go work on your car at the auto hobby shop. 00:19:28.860 |
You can go pull your car in and rent a lift for the ridiculous sum of like $5 or $10 an 00:19:35.140 |
You can go join the gym and have a workout program there or a runner's club. 00:19:44.820 |
We're much less tied to military bases in retirement than we used to be 25 or 30 years 00:19:50.900 |
I'm going to read a paragraph here, but the question is, "Do you think that joining the 00:20:01.300 |
military would be a primary strategy for someone who's primarily interested in saying, 'How 00:20:12.700 |
And before you answer that, I want to read a paragraph as an introduction here. 00:20:16.500 |
This is from a Yahoo Finance article, which you are very familiar with both this article 00:20:22.100 |
But the paragraph here is about a young man named Anton Ivanov. 00:20:31.020 |
And the story was that at 27 years old, he had become a millionaire. 00:20:34.980 |
And one of the primary ways that he did this was by joining the military, which allowed 00:20:41.500 |
And this paragraph in the story here says, "Fortunately, military life was the perfect 00:20:45.820 |
environment for a single person looking to save. 00:20:49.080 |
The bulk of his fixed expenses, housing, food, transportation, insurance, were covered. 00:20:54.180 |
He set up automatic transfers for his savings and investment accounts and followed a strict 00:20:59.340 |
First, he maxed out his annual Roth IRA contribution. 00:21:02.100 |
Then he contributed the maximum to his annual thrift savings plan, the federal employee 00:21:07.940 |
Then he split the remaining balance between his brokerage account and the savings funds 00:21:14.180 |
While he studied here and extra cash through one-off web design and programming gigs, he 00:21:17.780 |
got through freelance job sites like elance.com and odesk.com. 00:21:22.500 |
He estimates these side jobs added another $15,000 to $20,000 to his annual income." 00:21:27.420 |
So if that paragraph were true, then this sounds like basically the ultimate retirement 00:21:34.220 |
Join the military, all of your expenses are covered, save 50% of your income, use all 00:21:37.140 |
your extra time to earn extra money, and invest it wisely. 00:21:47.500 |
And it's a shame that he went and lied about his actual sources of his assets and destroyed 00:21:54.740 |
I take that very personally because he's a military veteran. 00:21:57.300 |
You should know better than to lie like that. 00:22:00.260 |
But the reality is that all those methods he describes work just fine in the military. 00:22:04.500 |
I'd even go a step further and say that in the military, when you're in uniform, you 00:22:13.020 |
You're used to living outdoors for weeks at a time. 00:22:15.660 |
You're used to living in a very small space with a very small bed and very limited storage. 00:22:20.940 |
You're used to working long hours and strange hours. 00:22:24.480 |
You're used to only being fed once or twice a day if you're out in the field. 00:22:28.620 |
There's a whole bunch of different things in the military that we put up with that even 00:22:33.780 |
convicts in the federal prison system have lawyers who have given them more privileges 00:22:37.420 |
and more rights than some people in the military. 00:22:43.900 |
And by that line between frugality and deprivation, you can easily save 40 to 50% of your pay 00:22:50.340 |
while you're in active duty, even if you're single, even if you're married. 00:22:54.440 |
Either way, you can still try to save 40 to 50% of your money while you're in uniform. 00:22:58.900 |
And the way that he lays out the savings program is exactly where you're supposed to do it. 00:23:04.300 |
Max out your Roth IRA, max out your thrift savings plan, put the additional money in 00:23:07.860 |
taxable accounts, and plan for your transition. 00:23:12.260 |
The math is there and the money from the military is there. 00:23:15.220 |
Admittedly, when you join the Navy or any of the services at the age of 17 or 18 years 00:23:20.020 |
old, you're going to have a very small paycheck. 00:23:22.060 |
And you might be challenged even at maxing out the contribution to your Roth IRA. 00:23:26.580 |
But the longer you stay in the military, the more your pay rises, the more you get promoted, 00:23:30.180 |
and the easier it is to max out your Roth IRA, your spouse's Roth IRA, your thrift savings 00:23:39.820 |
It's just a shame that he had to lie about his assets. 00:23:42.020 |
Yeah, and the backstory on this is as we record this on November 25th, a couple days ago it 00:23:49.340 |
The backstory was published that I just referenced. 00:23:51.580 |
But then some days later it came out that the man had evidently lied about the entire 00:23:55.940 |
thing and the bulk of his million dollar net worth, I guess he actually was a millionaire, 00:24:01.580 |
but the bulk of that million dollar net worth was accumulated through his, like an inheritance 00:24:16.340 |
And so the problem was that it may have violated the actual facts, and that is a legitimate 00:24:23.780 |
issue, violated the actual facts, but that doesn't take it away as a useful example. 00:24:30.220 |
And again, he destroyed his credibility there, but the math still works. 00:24:34.540 |
And I'd encourage all service members today to keep maxing out their contributions to 00:24:38.740 |
their IRAs, to their thrift savings plan, and save as much as you can for as long as 00:24:44.300 |
The reason is because in the military you're extremely experienced with being frugal, and 00:24:48.460 |
you know when you've gone too far because you've experienced deprivation too. 00:24:53.500 |
How much does, at 18 years old, someone joining up, 18, just a rank and file person, how much 00:25:01.820 |
does an 18 year old recruit make, would you guess? 00:25:14.620 |
It depends on where you're stationed and whether you're married or not. 00:25:17.940 |
And the total compensation package when you just join the military is probably about $30,000 00:25:24.980 |
Again that's highly dependent on what part of the country you're living in and whether 00:25:27.620 |
you're stationed overseas, because the living allowances that you get for food and housing 00:25:32.180 |
will vary with the location you're stationed in. 00:25:36.060 |
And I would add to that, that after you've been in the military for a couple years, you're 00:25:39.740 |
probably getting at least one promotion if you sign on for a very technical field or 00:25:44.700 |
if you sign on for a little longer commitment, like six or eight years, then you get a couple 00:25:49.980 |
So that starting salary is like going into a McDonald's and working a minimum wage job. 00:25:54.940 |
However, if you were doing the equivalent of working at McDonald's, then by the way 00:26:00.660 |
the military works it, within six years you'd be running that McDonald's. 00:26:03.860 |
And that's what happens in the military is that with a six or eight year enlistment, 00:26:08.460 |
you'll be at least up the ranks to E5 or E6 and you'll be looking at annual compensation 00:26:13.260 |
of, again this depends on skills and where you're stationed, of between $50,000 and $75,000 00:26:19.980 |
I have a friend who owns a bunch of McDonald's and if you apply yourself in six years you 00:26:28.820 |
It's not, that's right, it's not about the skills, it's just about the work and the persistence. 00:26:33.860 |
You know, I don't know if your father was a nuclear trained submariner or not. 00:26:42.820 |
The nuclear trained officers today in the submarine force are able to, at their sixth 00:26:48.500 |
or seventh year of service, make over $100,000 a year on a bonus contract. 00:26:53.780 |
It's as high as $130,000 a year total package just for all the nuclear training and for 00:26:59.140 |
being willing to stick around past that initial obligation for a few more years. 00:27:04.460 |
I'll tell you an interesting story, I'll make it very brief, but Admiral Rickover actually, 00:27:08.220 |
he rejected my dad and when he applied to the program because his grades weren't good 00:27:14.340 |
enough and he was very hard working but he was working full time and going to school 00:27:19.900 |
full time and he'd gotten his engineering degree and he was rejected. 00:27:23.820 |
So he stayed on the diesel subs but looking back on it later, he was on the last of the 00:27:30.620 |
And they sold it to, it's parked in Arkansas, Razorback I think is what- 00:27:41.020 |
But he looks back on it and he says one of the greatest blessings that he ever had was 00:27:44.460 |
that he didn't wind up in the nuclear program just because at that time, the lifestyle, 00:27:49.660 |
I mean it was so difficult as it was to be on the diesel boats and out on six month cruises 00:27:54.620 |
and just the sheer difference of intensity that it would have required from the nuclear 00:27:59.860 |
And he was glad later with hindsight that he was, that passed over for that. 00:28:05.460 |
I got a chance to speak with the Admiral myself three days before he retired and he was a 00:28:10.740 |
little grumpy about it but that's how I got in the program. 00:28:13.780 |
After he had what, he was the one who completely changed the rules for how many years, right? 00:28:19.820 |
So that he could keep running the Navy long past anyone that was supposed to be around. 00:28:26.420 |
Congress passed new laws after he retired because by that point, he'd outlived all his 00:28:33.820 |
It did make us very intense and focused over the years. 00:28:36.940 |
In the last 12 years, I spent a lot of time trying to slow down and not be so intense 00:28:41.940 |
and focused about certain things just because of my submarine nuclear training background. 00:28:47.700 |
So let's continue on the early retirement theme. 00:28:50.520 |
So your early influences were Paul Terhorst's book, Cashing in the American Dream and then 00:29:00.560 |
So today, I've come in on the tail end of this stuff. 00:29:04.940 |
Basically now where it's this massive, I think it's a massive movement all across the world. 00:29:09.720 |
What were some of the other developments and especially how did the online community develop? 00:29:16.120 |
I was dialing into bulletin board systems with a modem back in the late 90s. 00:29:21.520 |
Back then, one of the more popular places to have an internet discussion was The Motley 00:29:27.480 |
This was back when The Motley Fool was a brand new startup and very popular among people 00:29:34.640 |
They had a very robust retire early homepage there that had a lot of people posting on 00:29:42.400 |
Then The Motley Fool tried to charge a monthly fee. 00:29:45.000 |
It was some ridiculous sum like $5 a month to be a member of The Motley Fool forums and 00:29:52.720 |
That business plan did not work out well for the fools but the residents there on the retire 00:29:57.960 |
early page left and went to a new forum that was started by a guy who's still in the business 00:30:10.880 |
He retired from the oil and gas industry in the Houston area back in the late 90s. 00:30:17.240 |
Even today, it's been 18 years, he still posts to his forum I'd say four or five times a 00:30:25.340 |
They all moved over there and they started doing the same research and discussion that 00:30:36.080 |
This is one that I've been associated with for over 12 years now. 00:30:40.020 |
It's called the earlyretirement.org website, early-retirement.org. 00:30:47.920 |
That got started in 2002 by a web designer, a guy who had retired from an IT job. 00:30:55.840 |
He said that when he was working in the late 90s that one of his office mates had a retirement 00:31:01.980 |
ceremony and they made a big joke out of putting all kinds of retirement stuff on a door to 00:31:07.920 |
One of them was a printout from that John Greeney retire early homepage that had all 00:31:13.760 |
That was the first time that this guy at earlyretirement.org had thought about early retirement. 00:31:19.640 |
What he managed to do was not only to retire early, but he and his spouse bought a small 00:31:27.160 |
They actually spent their time cruising up and down on the intercoastal waterway. 00:31:32.760 |
He was running the forum from his cell phones in the afternoons after they would tie up 00:31:37.720 |
somewhere he'd get online with his cell phone at some pitiful data rate and manage the forum. 00:31:48.560 |
The forum kept growing the whole time as more of us got in there and got interested in figuring 00:31:53.440 |
out the math and the lifestyle behind early retirement. 00:32:05.040 |
I had worked on that forum when I retired in 2002. 00:32:08.800 |
About 2004, I started asking questions about the lifestyle and the finances. 00:32:14.200 |
I'd been, of course, early retired for 18 months by then, but I was just checking in 00:32:18.200 |
with the experts here to make sure I didn't miss something. 00:32:20.520 |
I wanted to make sure I understood all the factors and had accounted for them all. 00:32:24.440 |
I wanted to know if the, I wouldn't call it a failure rate, I'd call it a recidivism rate 00:32:33.200 |
I wanted to know if people were just sitting around for a couple of years and then going 00:32:39.400 |
If you're having fun and you're early retired and you're enjoying life, it's probably going 00:32:42.440 |
to continue like that for the rest of your life." 00:32:47.760 |
I've been posting there since early 2004, over 10 years, almost 11 years now. 00:32:54.720 |
There have been a few other sites over the years. 00:32:57.040 |
One other site that started up in 2004 was started by a retired radiologist. 00:33:05.200 |
His poster name is Raddr, R-A-D-D-R, Radiation Doctor. 00:33:11.640 |
He did a lot of math and number crunching back then. 00:33:13.840 |
He figured out a lot of the math behind the 4% safe withdrawal rate. 00:33:21.120 |
The original 4% safe withdrawal rate was for a 30-year survival on a portfolio. 00:33:26.720 |
He did research, some of the first research I'd seen, to extend that out to 50 years. 00:33:30.760 |
Of course, he came up with a slightly smaller number, but it was encouraging to see that 00:33:36.360 |
His board is also still active these years, after all these years. 00:33:42.360 |
He did a lot of the website research and then left that as a webpage and then went on and 00:33:47.360 |
I'd say the next big initiative was Morningstar. 00:33:52.840 |
The Monopoly Fool was one of the first places to have a robust bunch of forums about investing 00:33:58.200 |
in retirement, but Morningstar also had a bunch of forums of their own. 00:34:03.520 |
There was an incident, I'd say around 2006, 2007, I'm not exactly sure when, a lot of 00:34:10.440 |
the boards were not very well moderated by Morningstar. 00:34:14.280 |
One of the forums that they had there was the Vanguard Diehards. 00:34:22.360 |
That troll just completely ruined the environment for everybody. 00:34:26.560 |
It actually inspired a number of the Vanguard Diehards to break off and start their own 00:34:35.000 |
It was the problems that Morningstar had taking care of moderating their own forum. 00:34:40.640 |
I think it's been one of the greatest things to happen for early retirement. 00:34:43.480 |
The Bogleheads have done a lot of work to make sure everybody understands not just early 00:34:48.280 |
retirement but investing and conventional retirement, whatever retirement you want. 00:34:53.880 |
One of their biggest contributions has been their wiki. 00:34:56.000 |
They've put together a very robust archive of information articles on retirement, investing, 00:35:03.680 |
We've contributed to a substantial archive over there for the military as well as for 00:35:07.580 |
other types of occupations and other people that are interested in either a traditional 00:35:12.400 |
career and retiring in their 60s or early retirement or maybe they're just interested 00:35:16.680 |
in working for the rest of their lives or living overseas, however they want to do it. 00:35:20.040 |
Let me ask you a question and interrupt your time flow here with a question about forums 00:35:23.720 |
because I personally have really enjoyed a lot of forums and have learned from them. 00:35:28.760 |
I've recommended to many people, including clients, that the best place to go is to find 00:35:38.120 |
The first one is a small concern that usually forums are organized around one specific theme 00:35:44.500 |
For example, if you are in the Bogleheads forum, you're going to get acolytes of John 00:35:50.040 |
Bogle, which is nothing wrong with that, but there are other points of view and that would 00:35:54.480 |
be different than I've never been in the forum, but I'm sure there's a Berkshire Hathaway 00:35:59.680 |
I've never been there, but I'm sure it exists. 00:36:04.080 |
But my bigger concern is how to figure out who knows what they're talking about in the 00:36:07.800 |
forums because I've privately connected and I've privately contributed and anonymously 00:36:14.080 |
contributed in a few forums, which I think is one of the big major values. 00:36:17.520 |
But there are a few forums where I've publicized who I am. 00:36:19.920 |
Probably the one I've participated in the most is the Money Mustache forum, which is 00:36:23.240 |
a great forum, but sometimes I go in there and I see somebody giving bad advice. 00:36:28.120 |
The other day I posted somebody had a question on life insurance and I only had time, but 00:36:35.640 |
The question was I'm 23 years old and I went in and they said, "What kind of life insurance 00:36:42.960 |
And I said, "Well, that's a great consideration and it's a topic I know my stuff in." 00:36:46.720 |
And they were trying to figure out the difference between the AICPA offerings versus others. 00:36:53.000 |
And all I simply said was I said, "Don't buy level term life insurance. 00:36:56.240 |
Buy annual renewable term life insurance at your age." 00:36:59.720 |
And that's a very unusual but very, very strong and I feel very strongly about that perspective. 00:37:07.120 |
But I'm very qualified to go in and defend that, but I'm not willing to dedicate the 00:37:11.740 |
time to going into the forum and saying, "Here's why you need to listen to me." 00:37:18.360 |
And I don't want to go in and get in an argument with people, but the problem is that many 00:37:21.760 |
people are very well intentioned, but they might not have necessarily the level of technical 00:37:27.640 |
How do you figure out who's blowing smoke and who knows what they're talking about in 00:37:34.160 |
And so somebody will come across in a forum, they may be very articulate, very reasonable, 00:37:37.960 |
their name may be Anton Ivanov, and you have to figure out if what they're saying is not 00:37:43.600 |
only making sense for your particular situation, but whether you can find that information 00:37:50.160 |
I try, every time I talk about military benefits or pay or military retirement, I try to back 00:37:54.920 |
it up with the source from either a study or from the instruction on the Department 00:38:00.200 |
of Defense website or some other credible source. 00:38:03.480 |
And it's that way when you're talking about early retirement or investing. 00:38:08.120 |
You'll go to a study somebody has done somewhere, maybe it's something as simple as a Vanguard 00:38:12.760 |
marketing sheet, but it might be something more thoroughly researched, like the work 00:38:16.840 |
that Wade Pfau is doing on the safe withdrawal rate, or some old stuff like the original 00:38:22.200 |
Behnken thought about the safe max withdrawal rate, or even the Trinity study. 00:38:26.840 |
So you have to read, you have to get familiar. 00:38:29.200 |
I would not blindly go into an internet forum and say, "Oh, hey, great, this anonymous guy 00:38:33.240 |
on the internet says I have enough assets to retire. 00:38:36.280 |
Instead, you've got to go sit down and do your reading and do your math and figure out 00:38:41.040 |
from a retirement calculator or from whatever books or whatever other authoritative websites 00:38:45.800 |
you personally trust whether you want to do this. 00:38:53.680 |
Can I do this because a research study and a computer simulation say this works?" 00:38:57.920 |
You also have to have a personal level of comfort that might actually be a bigger challenge 00:39:04.600 |
And that personal level of comfort can take a while to develop. 00:39:08.000 |
You may figure out that you have more than enough money to last the rest of your life, 00:39:11.320 |
but you still have to figure out how you're going to live your life and what you're going 00:39:16.000 |
And the joke on most of the early retirement forums is, "What are you going to do all day?" 00:39:21.160 |
And there are other books and other websites to go to for that to help you figure out what 00:39:25.480 |
your interests are and how you're going to occupy your time. 00:39:27.760 |
And I think that being responsible for your own entertainment is a big challenge for some 00:39:32.700 |
people especially if they identify closely with their job. 00:39:36.540 |
That can hold up the transition and make it even worse if they're actually laid off or 00:39:43.500 |
So there's a big emotional component to retiring early that is very reassuring to get from 00:39:49.500 |
posting on internet forums and reading what other people have to say about early retirement. 00:39:53.140 |
But again, you've got to do your own due diligence, got to read, got to figure out if this is 00:39:57.020 |
really going to work for your personal situation. 00:39:59.380 |
I don't have many concerns about the personal finance issues or even like saving money issues. 00:40:06.180 |
What I have concerns about are when people get into specific discussions on specific 00:40:12.500 |
For example, there's a massive difference between one insurance product from one company 00:40:17.140 |
versus another or versus from one annuity product to another annuity product. 00:40:21.640 |
People often throw, I observe, many contributors throw the baby out with the bathwater and 00:40:31.640 |
Forgetting the fact that Doug Nordman is living on one annuity right now called the military 00:40:37.520 |
pension system and will have another one called the social security system. 00:40:42.160 |
Doesn't mean that there's anything wrong with an annuity, it just means you got to get a 00:40:46.320 |
And then the other thing is when people often get into legal advice surrounding trust, estate 00:40:55.240 |
I used to think that the advice was good and then I learned. 00:40:59.360 |
As I've grown, then I've learned, the problem is I just don't have time to contribute. 00:41:06.560 |
I always just worry though, I hope people are backing it up with their own due diligence. 00:41:11.400 |
It's a great place to gather ideas and to gain from stuff. 00:41:16.040 |
I've learned so much stuff in forums that I can never find in a textbook, but got to 00:41:21.120 |
Oh, and you've got to learn the vocabulary so that when you do go talk to a financial 00:41:25.360 |
professional, you know what questions you should ask and you are listening for the keywords 00:41:29.760 |
and the caveats and other tricky phrases that might make you get the wrong impression. 00:41:36.360 |
I always love people say, "Hey, I'm going to go talk to a financial advisor. 00:41:43.600 |
Because man, it's the greatest thing in the world when a client comes in. 00:41:46.640 |
I come from the background of a financial advisor. 00:41:48.600 |
It's so wonderful to work with a client who knows their stuff, knows the questions they 00:41:54.080 |
should be asking and allows you to spend your time showing off your skill and your knowledge 00:42:01.680 |
answering something that's better than, "How do I save money?" 00:42:05.040 |
Well, the other thing is you can educate yourself for free on an internet forum and then go 00:42:09.480 |
into that financial advisor's office and start a project that may only take an hour to explain 00:42:15.160 |
to you instead of five hours to educate and then explain to you. 00:42:18.120 |
So it saves quite a bit of money just educating yourself. 00:42:20.760 |
I tell people that financial advisors have to know a little bit about everything. 00:42:25.120 |
They've got to be a mile wide and an inch deep on every topic of finances. 00:42:29.080 |
But a person that is saving for their own early retirement, they only have to be an 00:42:35.440 |
They can be an inch wide and a mile deep on their own financial situation. 00:42:39.320 |
That's all they need to talk about with a financial advisor is to know what they need 00:42:45.080 |
They can get a lot of that from an internet forum and then confirm it with a professional 00:42:48.760 |
if they're not certain that's what they want to do. 00:42:51.640 |
They can gather some good data as far as points of concern. 00:42:59.280 |
Someone like me can say, "Well, have you considered this, this, this?" 00:43:03.680 |
The key is the financial advisor can know your actual details. 00:43:07.960 |
And that's the difference that I've observed. 00:43:10.880 |
At this point, when someone says, "This is what you should do without knowing details," 00:43:17.120 |
Well, the more you lurk, the more you post on internet forums, the more you hang around 00:43:22.440 |
the advice that people are giving, the quicker you'll be able to see who's just using absolutes 00:43:27.240 |
and negatives all the time and they only see things in black and white instead of the shades 00:43:30.980 |
of gray, others who are stuck on one particular topic and never figure out how to take a more 00:43:38.400 |
It takes a while to see that when you're on an internet forum, but that's why I like sticking 00:43:41.440 |
with one for a while to understand the personalities and the backgrounds of the people who post 00:43:46.400 |
Until we all start posting our tax returns and our salary structure and our paychecks 00:43:52.480 |
on internet forums, we're all going to try to keep those details private. 00:43:55.800 |
So you have to figure out what's right for your own situation. 00:43:59.080 |
So the bogey heads grew and then early-retirement.org grew. 00:44:05.320 |
Were there more developments after that that made a big difference? 00:44:09.800 |
We started crowdsourcing on early-retirement.org forum. 00:44:14.100 |
One of the posters was an entrepreneur and a guy in a tech business in the '90s and he 00:44:22.920 |
His idea was that he was not going to completely retire cold turkey and never work again. 00:44:27.000 |
He wanted to retire and do a little of this, a little of that, maybe some consulting, maybe 00:44:32.040 |
He really didn't know what he wanted to do with the rest of his life, but he expected 00:44:36.280 |
to live a life where he did some work all the time as long as he was capable of it. 00:44:44.080 |
Bob went on to write a crowdsource book from the early-retirement forum called Work Less, 00:44:52.800 |
Bob's pick on that book was one that he had a lot of personal stories in there from the 00:45:00.960 |
He also had a lot of advice from us, enough advice to the point where he went out and 00:45:05.760 |
he paid a programming firm to simulate a different type of withdrawal system that no one had 00:45:14.880 |
Bob was one of the first guys to develop a variable withdrawal strategy in retirement. 00:45:22.680 |
What that meant was that you could retire and start taking money out of your portfolio 00:45:27.720 |
at what you think was the safe withdrawal rate of 4%. 00:45:31.040 |
But then if a big recession hit, you could cut your spending back a little bit and not 00:45:37.840 |
Bob was able to actually hire a computer firm that could do the programming and do the analysis 00:45:41.840 |
and show that in retirement, a variable withdrawal system would allow your portfolio to survive 00:45:50.600 |
Nobody ever been able to figure this out before because it's just too complicated. 00:45:53.720 |
The original research on retiring assumed that you spent the same amount every year 00:45:58.200 |
adjusted for inflation because that was the most the computer programming could handle 00:46:03.280 |
So Bob's contribution was nice to see a variable system, which is the way that I spend in retirement. 00:46:09.980 |
No matter how logical or how experienced you are, when the market's up, you're going to 00:46:15.240 |
When the market's down and everybody's jumping out of second-story windows, you're probably 00:46:18.880 |
going to spend a little less money in a recession. 00:46:21.800 |
Bob also used that crowdsource model to get a lot of content for the book and that really 00:46:26.720 |
helped him write it, was being able to have people email him stuff and he would try out 00:46:31.360 |
snippets of chapters on us and he would ask us questions about the text or the conclusion 00:46:38.160 |
The publisher had a hard time with understanding the concept of early retirement. 00:46:42.000 |
So he was able to show that there was a big forum where this was discussed all the time 00:46:45.960 |
and explain to the publisher what was going on and they bought into it. 00:46:50.680 |
When I saw Bob do that, I thought, "Geez, you know, the military service members that 00:46:55.200 |
retire, they've already got a pension adjusted for inflation and they've already got cheap 00:47:01.160 |
Where are all the military retirees who are going to do work less, live more?" 00:47:07.280 |
We crowdsourced on the same model that Bob Clyatt used. 00:47:10.200 |
We got a bunch of advice and stories from service members and their families and veterans 00:47:17.160 |
I would write a chapter and farm it out to 20 or 30 people and take their feedback and 00:47:24.160 |
I took it very slow and took it very leisurely, but over the next six years we wrote a book 00:47:29.720 |
and published that as the Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement. 00:47:34.360 |
Now, Bob has gone on in his, he calls it, semi-retirement to become a sculptor. 00:47:45.760 |
He was one of those guys who always enjoyed high school art classes, but when it was time 00:47:49.160 |
to go to college, his father suggested he should study business and get a real job instead 00:47:55.000 |
So Bob avenged himself by retiring early and going back and starting his art. 00:48:02.560 |
He lives on a suburb of Long Island near New York City and he has a lot of art galleries 00:48:08.940 |
around there that he exhibits in and his last name is spelled C-L-Y-A-T-T, Cliet, Bob Cliet. 00:48:16.480 |
And look him up in the internet for Bob Cliet Sculptures. 00:48:19.280 |
He does wonderful work with figures of people's bodies and people's heads and abstract, a 00:48:27.280 |
take off on a sculptor of a person or somebody out there doing something like leaping or 00:48:34.120 |
He has figured out how to do amazing structural things with sculpture. 00:48:38.400 |
I had no idea when I sat down to watch him do a video of how to make a head out of clay. 00:48:43.560 |
I had no idea there was so much engineering in it. 00:48:48.040 |
He's actually traveled to foundries in the People's Republic of China to build sculptures 00:48:58.600 |
A head that big cannot be built out of just clay. 00:49:01.360 |
It has to have a bunch of infrastructure inside it. 00:49:03.800 |
And then he's figured out how to do the metallurgy behind casting it. 00:49:07.040 |
So he's just done tremendous things in retirement with art. 00:49:12.960 |
And his spouse keeps having to bring dinner out to the art studio late at night after 00:49:17.280 |
he's waiting for something to cool or he's experimenting with some new technique. 00:49:21.280 |
He has really figured out what he's going to do all day. 00:49:24.760 |
And I feel the same way after I got the book written and published that I had never had 00:49:29.840 |
a day when I felt bored or where I felt unfulfilled or had trouble figuring out what I was going 00:49:36.720 |
And Bob and I, we immediately connected on that basis. 00:49:39.280 |
And we've been good friends for the last almost ten years now. 00:49:44.920 |
This to me is one of the things I love about early retirement is just not viewing it as 00:49:51.640 |
a goal but viewing it as a milestone that I think of. 00:49:57.520 |
Because my observation, maybe you know somebody. 00:50:00.640 |
I've had people ask, "Can you bring someone on who doesn't work?" 00:50:04.000 |
And I'm like, "Well, the people who actually have the money to retire, they don't quit 00:50:12.760 |
Are you doing anything that earns you money?" 00:50:15.960 |
All the income from the book and the blog income goes to military-friendly charities. 00:50:22.920 |
One of them is what we're going to now start calling the Ivanov reason where you want to 00:50:26.680 |
be completely transparent about your income and your assets. 00:50:29.440 |
But the other reason is that it encouraged people to contribute their advice and their 00:50:34.640 |
I said, "Hey, if you help me write the book, then when we start giving the royalties to 00:50:38.040 |
charities, you get a vote on which military charity gets the royalty money." 00:50:42.120 |
And it really encouraged people to volunteer that I think otherwise would not have been 00:50:54.520 |
Well, you know that you can go out there and write an e-book and you can freelance an editor, 00:51:00.120 |
you can freelance a cover designer, you can freelance a copy editor, whatever you need. 00:51:05.720 |
If you've got enough people who are happy to help, there are a lot of people out there 00:51:08.560 |
that are retired artists, retired editors, retired copywriters, retired authors. 00:51:13.080 |
And if they want to help you with your project, they'll contribute the labor. 00:51:19.560 |
I also wanted to touch on, you talked about the variable withdrawal strategy. 00:51:22.680 |
This is one of the things I love about the early retirement community is in general, 00:51:27.080 |
the challenge that there's often a very different language that's spoken between mainstream 00:51:31.720 |
financial advisors and the early retirement community. 00:51:35.720 |
And what I think people often forget, at least in my observation, is that the mainstream 00:51:39.760 |
financial advisor's job, it's so rare to find someone who's saving 10% of their income that 00:51:45.240 |
you're almost excited when someone's saving 10%. 00:51:47.840 |
Now you run across somebody who's saving 20% or 30% or 50%. 00:51:55.520 |
It doesn't happen in a financial advisor's job. 00:51:58.720 |
So you can forgive us if we're a little bit surprised when someone says, "I'm saving 70% 00:52:09.480 |
And not only that, but you realize they're probably going to retire earlier than you 00:52:15.920 |
And just because someone's a financial planner does not mean they're good with money. 00:52:17.560 |
I know a lot of it sounds horrible, but it's the truth that I know a lot of financial planners 00:52:26.600 |
And people often forget that, I think, when I use the term financial planning, that's 00:52:32.600 |
Is an application of financial knowledge and skill to a specific problem. 00:52:36.700 |
It doesn't mean that somebody has the same lifestyle goals as their client may have. 00:52:43.960 |
And right or wrong, I think if it bothers you, find a different advisor who does have 00:52:49.080 |
I mean, this business is very much a business like many other things. 00:52:52.880 |
But the point is that when you give me the opportunity of having a variable withdrawal 00:52:59.160 |
strategy with a retiree client, where they're willing to adjust their income significantly 00:53:04.200 |
based upon market performance, even though I certainly can design a plan that doesn't 00:53:10.000 |
take it into account, that margin of safety is an amazing thing. 00:53:14.560 |
And it just brings such a buffer to the decision that it relieves the stress on me as a planner. 00:53:21.660 |
That's very abnormal, because most of the time, the clients that a planner may be working 00:53:27.440 |
with, they're coming to the age of 65 and they've barely got it. 00:53:31.440 |
And they're not willing to change their income. 00:53:33.100 |
And they're not willing to change their lifestyle one bit, because after all, they've worked 00:53:36.480 |
towards this retirement plan and everything is based upon spending a higher level of income 00:53:41.620 |
It's a very tough financial planning nut to crack. 00:53:43.680 |
And so just the ability to learn to be flexible with expenses and live a great lifestyle on 00:53:48.800 |
varying expenses from year to year, your planner will love you if you give that scenario to 00:53:54.840 |
I don't think people anticipate that actually is going to happen. 00:53:59.000 |
They see that they want to live the same lifestyle in retirement that they had before retirement, 00:54:03.440 |
only they just don't want to have to go to work. 00:54:05.560 |
And they don't appreciate that there will probably be a big spike in spending during 00:54:08.960 |
that first five years of retirement, just as you all run around and enjoy life and travel 00:54:12.940 |
and fulfill all the things you swore you were going to do as soon as you could get out of 00:54:17.360 |
But over the 30 or 40 years of a retirement, it turns out that by the time people are in 00:54:23.680 |
their 70s or 80s that they've done most of the things they really wanted to do. 00:54:27.280 |
Most of the expensive experiences have been experienced and most of the expensive objects 00:54:33.400 |
And people start to focus on the things that are very important in their lives and they 00:54:39.760 |
And there have been surveys and urban studies, but it's mostly anecdotal data that says as 00:54:47.600 |
And so that's a variable retirement withdrawal system right there. 00:54:51.220 |
And nobody has really tried to figure out how to quantify that. 00:54:54.100 |
And Bob, with his system, was one of the first to figure out how you can cut back just a 00:54:58.260 |
little bit during a recession without having to take a huge whack at your lifestyle. 00:55:02.580 |
I like the approach of having some annuitized income that covers your bare bones of your 00:55:08.820 |
Do you have to pay all your non-discretionary expenses? 00:55:11.420 |
Do you have enough annuitized income to cover that during a big bear market? 00:55:16.020 |
And if you can handle that, then you can handle all the rest of the surprises that come up 00:55:21.620 |
You can even go out there and spend the money on a fantasy vacation one year and then cut 00:55:29.060 |
It's the way we all like to spend our money and measure chunks to cover certain activities 00:55:35.640 |
And we don't want to have to be a regular rigid computer program. 00:55:39.700 |
So if a financial advisor can come up with a couple of rules, like Bob Clyde's system 00:55:44.420 |
or some other types of variable withdrawal systems I've seen over the years, all you 00:55:48.780 |
got to do is whip out the rule book and see what you can do and figure out how to live 00:55:52.580 |
It's a wonderful way to give yourself the confidence to retire before the traditional 00:55:56.220 |
age and not have to worry about money when you are retired. 00:55:59.220 |
Yeah, the safe floor, the floor of income is what we call that approach. 00:56:04.940 |
That's the one I've always found to be the most intuitive for people. 00:56:10.900 |
I just went and looked up Clyde's book and I realize I've read it because I recognize 00:56:16.340 |
What was his system that he laid out in there? 00:56:18.580 |
Well it's frequently confused with the Trinity study of the 4% safe withdrawal rate. 00:56:23.340 |
And let me briefly mention the Trinity study's system is that you take your 4% when you retire 00:56:29.260 |
and then every year you raise that by inflation. 00:56:31.540 |
So the Trinity system, you start at a 4% withdrawal rate and every year you boost it by the inflation 00:56:42.260 |
Every year that you're retired, at the beginning of the year, you withdraw 4% of your portfolio. 00:56:48.540 |
If the stock market was up the last year and your portfolio is up, you start in January, 00:56:53.020 |
you withdraw 4% of that portfolio and that's the money you're going to live on that year. 00:56:58.940 |
You're not going to have much of a problem with that. 00:57:01.260 |
When the stock market is down though, Bob gives you a variable system to soften the 00:57:06.660 |
If the stock market loses 20%, the nightmare scenario is that the following year you would 00:57:12.860 |
have to cut all of your spending by 20% and people are not willing to do that. 00:57:17.940 |
And Bob's computer research was able to prove that you could cut your spending back a little 00:57:22.940 |
So Bob's system says if the stock market's down, instead of taking 4% next year and having 00:57:27.460 |
to whack a big spending cut, take 95% of what you took last year. 00:57:34.060 |
And so instead of having to cut way back because the market was down, you cut back just a little 00:57:41.180 |
And if the market's down the next year, well, you just take 95% of what you'd spent the 00:57:45.900 |
So you're cutting your spending a little bit by a few percentage points until the market 00:57:50.940 |
And then once the market recovers, you go back on the 4% of withdrawal every year. 00:57:58.820 |
And what he was able to show was that over the 30-year period and even longer, that that 00:58:03.420 |
variable withdrawal rate would get you through the bear market. 00:58:06.540 |
The big problem with the Trinity study is that if you got through a severe bear market 00:58:10.860 |
in the first five or 10 years after you retired and you were boosting your withdrawals every 00:58:15.900 |
year for inflation in the face of that big bear market, you could chew way into your 00:58:20.220 |
portfolio during that first five or 10 years and it would never recover. 00:58:24.660 |
And one of the more popular threads on Radder's board is the Y2K retiree. 00:58:34.720 |
He's had a thread running there on the Y2K retiree who retired in January of 2000 when 00:58:39.620 |
the NASDAQ was approaching its all-time peak. 00:58:43.260 |
And this hapless retiree has rigidly followed the Trinity study. 00:58:47.860 |
And every year he's taken an inflation adjustment on his 4% safe withdrawal rate. 00:58:53.140 |
And by now, because he's been boosting his spending every year for retirement, he's looking 00:58:58.180 |
at a withdrawal of about 10% of his portfolio every year just to keep adding the inflation 00:59:03.820 |
adjustments onto his original 4% withdrawal rate. 00:59:07.060 |
And it's become clear after 14 years there's just no way that his portfolio is going to 00:59:10.420 |
recover from the damage that was done by the 2001-2002 bear market. 00:59:16.900 |
And in the 2008 recession, that's more or less the final sentence on the possibility 00:59:24.960 |
So Bob being able to show that you could vary your spending during a recession was a big 00:59:31.020 |
And today, you can probably find five or six more systems of variable withdrawal rates 00:59:36.180 |
with different rules and different systems and different processes. 00:59:40.580 |
And there's even different ways to run a portfolio. 00:59:42.380 |
I know people who are going to wait until they can survive on only the interest and 00:59:50.180 |
They're just going to keep working until they build a portfolio big enough to have the dividends 00:59:53.900 |
and the interest that they earned from their investments support their lifestyle. 00:59:59.520 |
Makes me wonder with this retiree, makes me wonder if did they set an age, this hapless 01:00:04.840 |
Y2K retiree, and could they have adjusted it with him taking Social Security at some 01:00:12.720 |
I think Social Security would eventually save him as his portfolio is running out. 01:00:17.140 |
But that's what he'd be living on for the rest of his life is Social Security. 01:00:20.140 |
So I don't think that a particular age was chosen for this guy. 01:00:23.560 |
It was probably in his 40s or 50s, of course, the typical age group of most early retirees. 01:00:28.920 |
But no, they didn't count on him being saved by Social Security. 01:00:36.760 |
We will eulogize him as the perils of sticking to a fixed plan. 01:00:44.640 |
I need to, one of my reading projects for next year is I'm going to really dig through, 01:00:48.400 |
I've read some of the literature, but I'm going to try to develop a comprehensive survey 01:00:53.640 |
of all of the studies that have been done on safe withdrawal rates and see if I can 01:00:58.160 |
bring that to the show and kind of talk through the developments. 01:01:02.560 |
Has the movement grown, the early retirement community? 01:01:06.240 |
I guess community is a better word than movement. 01:01:13.120 |
I don't know if it's necessarily grown as a part of society. 01:01:16.560 |
For example, the number of people who get on the Internet every year goes up by 50 or 01:01:21.720 |
And so every year there are plenty more people learning about early retirement. 01:01:24.760 |
But I couldn't tell you whether 1% of society is interested in early retirement or whether 01:01:30.880 |
I can't tell you if the worldwide interest in early retirement has gone up over the years 01:01:35.400 |
as a percentage of the humans on the face of the earth. 01:01:37.880 |
I do know that with all the calculator tools out there that people are beginning to realize 01:01:42.880 |
that as they approach an age where they might have enough finances to be able to retire, 01:01:47.520 |
they're able to convince themselves that yes, it is feasible, the math does work, and yes, 01:01:52.320 |
And you just did not have those tools back in the '70s or '80s unless you happened to 01:01:56.200 |
cash out of a large inheritance or a business and know that you could live off those dividends 01:02:02.520 |
Today, you can figure out your sources of income. 01:02:05.340 |
You can figure out how you want to structure your portfolio. 01:02:08.600 |
You can figure out how your assets are going to work together to give you your income for 01:02:12.960 |
And you can approach that with a high degree of confidence that even if you retire in your 01:02:16.640 |
'30s, that you'll still be able to sustain yourself for the rest of your life. 01:02:24.720 |
And that may work for the years until you're in your '40s or '50s. 01:02:27.680 |
But after that, the idea of going back to work may be less attractive and you may not 01:02:31.720 |
have the skills to find a job when you're in your '60s. 01:02:38.000 |
You didn't mention in your timeline, you didn't mention Jacob Lund Fisker and you didn't mention 01:02:50.800 |
And you know, in this timeline we're discussing, we're barely into the late 2007, '08. 01:02:59.600 |
I've got another phone call in 10 minutes, but we can keep going for hours. 01:03:04.320 |
The next two big initiatives were of course Jacob Lund Fisker, who I think started his 01:03:11.640 |
I'm not sure exactly when he really came online. 01:03:14.760 |
And probably 2008, 2009 now that I think about it, because in a couple of years he passed 01:03:21.640 |
But Jacob, of course, had learned the extreme frugality approach. 01:03:25.880 |
You can either save up more money to support your retirement lifestyle or you can drastically 01:03:33.200 |
As Jacob has said, it was never about retiring early. 01:03:35.800 |
It was always about a sustainable lifestyle and minimizing your footprint on the earth. 01:03:39.880 |
And that's what made it so easy for him to pass the torch to Mr. Money Mustache. 01:03:46.800 |
And I'd say that everything he's taken from Jacob and developed since then has grown a 01:03:52.440 |
huge following of people that are happy to have somebody who supports their frugal and 01:03:59.640 |
And oh, by the way, if you do this for 20 years and do it with more than half of your 01:04:04.400 |
That's just the icing on top of the cupcake there. 01:04:08.200 |
So something, there's a skill that Pete, I first, I don't remember, I think I originally 01:04:13.840 |
found Your Money or Your Life was my path into knowing about it. 01:04:17.280 |
Because for me, I grew up reading personal finance books about, say, 15% and you'd be 01:04:25.760 |
And I think that led me to early retirement extreme was kind of my entry into learning 01:04:31.360 |
But I think that the work that Mr. Money Mustache is doing, though, is although he's not as 01:04:37.940 |
accessible as mainstream, he's a lot more accessible than Jacob was. 01:04:43.940 |
And his skill with writing, being funny and engaging. 01:04:47.200 |
And then the thing that I most appreciate, and sometimes I get concerned he's going to 01:04:51.240 |
cross this line, but that Money Mustache is he steers away from a lot of the technical 01:04:58.160 |
So as a financial advisor, I would often struggle to say, "How do I get this concept across 01:05:04.360 |
And I would send him a Money Mustache article. 01:05:06.560 |
And that Money Mustache article, a lot of times, was funny enough, but straightforward 01:05:10.340 |
enough that they would read it and then it would make them think. 01:05:15.680 |
And because he steered away from the technical topics, he didn't say, I mean, he did a little 01:05:22.800 |
But he didn't say, "Here's what you've got to do," which is where it becomes difficult 01:05:29.120 |
to recommend something to your clients because you have to give it all kinds of caveats. 01:05:33.360 |
Listen to this and this and this, Mr. Client. 01:05:40.760 |
That was where it came to, I used to give away Dave Ramsey's books. 01:05:43.880 |
I would carry them by the box and I'd have to give so many caveats that finally I said, 01:05:49.680 |
So I was able to send them his blog articles. 01:05:54.960 |
And I've had many clients where it's just enough who his writing is the perfect fit 01:05:59.520 |
for is kind of high income, middle class income, high lifestyle spending. 01:06:07.760 |
Like, "Oh, how crazy for you not to be able to live on $20,000 a year. 01:06:16.680 |
And it's so funny, but there's a ring of truth to it. 01:06:18.920 |
I had a lot of clients come back and say, "Wow, that really helped me. 01:06:24.960 |
And so I feel like he's probably done more to advance the cause for the early retirees 01:06:32.000 |
than many others because it's so accessible for middle income professionals, which is 01:06:36.440 |
in my mind where you have the easiest go of high income, high lifestyle, a couple of optimizations 01:06:42.140 |
to the lifestyle, and all of a sudden, high savings. 01:06:44.640 |
Well, it's very clear what's valuable to him, what brings value to his life, and it's not 01:06:50.320 |
And that helps people figure out what brings value to their own lives and how they can 01:06:54.240 |
cut their expenses and just spend the money on the things they enjoy. 01:07:05.880 |
Last question and we're done because you got to get the other phone call. 01:07:11.800 |
I start the morning, literally every morning, I check the surf forecast to see what I'm 01:07:16.960 |
going to be doing that day because if the surf is up, I'm going to rearrange my priorities 01:07:22.380 |
But otherwise, I get up in the morning and I write, I work on an article or a book or 01:07:26.800 |
a chapter or a post for the blog and I'll work on that for 20, 30 minutes or so. 01:07:31.800 |
And then the rest of the day is free and I'll usually do some chores in the morning. 01:07:34.880 |
We've got home improvement or yard work to do around the house and I enjoy a lot of the 01:07:39.800 |
I probably keep up with 50 or 60 blogs through an RSS feed and I enjoy catching up on that. 01:07:50.200 |
And my spouse and I spend time together, go for walks, exercise, just everything else 01:07:54.800 |
that everybody else does except I get to do it every day, all day. 01:07:59.320 |
And if I need to go surfing, I can change the schedule and do what I need to do and 01:08:10.200 |
Doug, thanks so much for coming on and for sharing some of the history. 01:08:16.160 |
I love learning about it and there's more history there than I ever knew about. 01:08:25.320 |
One of my dreams is that from a young age, we can help more and more people be financially 01:08:32.360 |
Now whether or not financial independence is measured from the perspective of never 01:08:38.080 |
having to work again, I think that's awesome and that's a really great definition. 01:08:42.720 |
But even just the attitude of being financially independent and a little bit of money piled 01:08:45.800 |
up can really make a big difference in people's career choices and to help people make a transition 01:08:50.320 |
and stop doing mind-numbing work and be able to pursue the things that are of great interest 01:09:02.320 |
If this was your first time listening to the show, we'd be thrilled. 01:09:06.120 |
We're here every day, Monday through Friday, with in-depth, hardcore financial planning 01:09:09.760 |
talk, lots of great interviews like this, a wide range of subjects. 01:09:20.720 |
Hopefully within a couple of weeks, I'm working on an app which will work on every device 01:09:24.640 |
and you'll be able to subscribe directly on the application and bypass some of the problems 01:09:30.840 |
If you would like to connect with me, joshua@radicalpersonalfinance.com is my email address. 01:09:35.480 |
You can find me on Twitter @radicalpf, Facebook.com/radicalpersonalfinance. 01:09:39.040 |
Let's read another review on our way out, a short iTunes review. 01:09:51.600 |
Joshua is genuine, intelligent, and an excellent communicator. 01:09:54.360 |
His insights and perspectives are truly outstanding. 01:09:56.680 |
He is data-driven, skeptical, and thinking about the big picture, yet very much down 01:10:01.720 |
No gimmicks or other typical flashy financial BS. 01:10:11.520 |
Thank you to each one of you who has left me a review on iTunes or on Stitcher. 01:10:16.560 |
They help the show rankings from time to time for help to other people find us as we go 01:10:22.680 |
If you've enjoyed this show, I'd be thrilled if you would consider joining the Irregulars. 01:10:25.640 |
That's the membership support program which is how I've designed to support this show. 01:10:31.760 |
Details can be found at RadicalPersonalFinance.com/membership. 01:11:23.520 |
This show is intended to provide entertainment, education, and financial enlightenment. 01:11:31.520 |
Your situation is unique and I cannot deliver any actionable advice without knowing anything 01:11:39.520 |
This show is not, and is not intended to be any form of financial advice. 01:11:46.880 |
Please, develop a team of professional advisors who you find to be caring, competent, and 01:11:55.240 |
trustworthy and consult them because they are the ones who can understand your specific 01:12:01.280 |
needs, your specific goals, and provide specific answers to your questions. 01:12:11.000 |
I've done my absolute best to be clear and accurate in today's show, but I'm one person 01:12:17.560 |
If you spot a mistake in something I've said, please come by the show page and comment so