back to indexHow Do You Invest 100% Of Your Money in Stocks?
Chapters
0:0 Intro
1:24 Asset Allocation
6:58 Financial Planning for Millennials
14:0 Budgeting for Employee Stock Option Plans
20:15 Dual Income Financial Planning
27:9 Saving for a House
00:00:12.960 |
where we take a week off, but the questions never do. 00:00:17.000 |
Today's show sponsored by our friends at Bird Dogs. 00:00:20.120 |
Duncan, today we're talking about diversification, 00:00:23.440 |
I like the diversification that Bird Dogs can apply. 00:00:26.560 |
- I was waiting to see what you were gonna do with that. 00:00:28.480 |
- Yeah, I've been out on the lake a lot lately, 00:00:33.800 |
and these are the kind of shorts that you can take anywhere. 00:00:35.640 |
I wear 'em at the beach, I wear 'em to the pool, 00:00:41.040 |
so I like to have diversification among my Bird Dogs. 00:00:46.360 |
when I wanna feel like going crazy a little bit 00:00:59.400 |
BirdDogs.com/ATC, you get a free tumbler, right? 00:01:04.320 |
I gotta get me some of those really cool design ones. 00:01:11.040 |
- Listen, I don't mind wearing a floral print here, 00:01:14.040 |
but I have some floral print Bird Dogs that are very nice. 00:01:19.760 |
People like them, I get a lot of compliments on those. 00:01:24.160 |
Okay, so up first today we have a question from Connor. 00:01:27.240 |
I'm a 34-year-old with a high risk tolerance. 00:01:29.520 |
All of my investment accounts are 100% stocks. 00:01:40.600 |
I'm not looking to get the highest return possible, per se, 00:01:44.960 |
Rather, I'm looking to have a well-diversified portfolio 00:01:47.400 |
that gives me long-term returns of 7% to 10%. 00:01:50.600 |
I've always utilized the following allocation, 00:01:52.880 |
and I'm guessing they mean annualized, obviously. 00:01:59.320 |
16% U.S. small-cap, 20% developed international, 00:02:16.840 |
I can't promise anything when it comes to future returns, 00:02:25.160 |
The world stock market is a good starting point. 00:02:33.160 |
This is just the breakdown between geographies. 00:02:37.000 |
International developed markets is like a third. 00:02:41.480 |
So Conor here is actually pretty close to this. 00:03:06.980 |
And so if you look at Conor's portfolio here, 00:03:09.680 |
it's, I mean, he's plus or minus 5% for all of these. 00:03:20.240 |
I think the global market cap is a good starting point 00:03:22.880 |
just to see where you're different from the actual market. 00:03:24.640 |
'Cause the market is what everyone collectively holds. 00:03:32.160 |
or just to see where your bets are being made. 00:03:33.800 |
Like I'm going way above and beyond here, way below here. 00:03:39.700 |
especially US-centric investors would assume the S&P 500 00:03:48.800 |
but probably gets 99% of the financial media coverage. 00:03:57.720 |
in the Vanguard World Stock Market Index Fund. 00:03:59.480 |
How many do you think are foreign companies, Duncan? 00:04:14.840 |
The first one is Taiwan Semiconductor at like 13. 00:04:16.940 |
So the top 10 holdings in the World Global Stock Market Fund 00:04:26.520 |
I do, however, think there's still room for diversification 00:04:28.800 |
if you're gonna invest your entire portfolio in stocks. 00:04:33.840 |
but you really don't have to go back that far 00:04:46.000 |
and then international developed and emerging markets. 00:04:57.640 |
Mid caps and small caps were both up almost 90%. 00:05:03.640 |
And then emerging markets just knocked it out of the park. 00:05:06.000 |
And this was a horrible time to be a US investor. 00:05:11.340 |
Now, if we look at the next decade, 2010 to 2019, 00:05:19.480 |
Mid cap and small cap actually did pretty well again. 00:05:26.440 |
and do these first two decades in this last chart, John, 00:05:34.440 |
was actually fourth place out of these five asset classes. 00:05:39.360 |
Emerging markets actually outperformed from 2000 to 2019, 00:05:44.160 |
Now, some of this has to do with the start and end dates. 00:05:48.080 |
if you want to win any argument about performance 00:05:50.320 |
in the markets, just change your start and end dates. 00:05:56.440 |
and show that the S&P did better in these different periods. 00:06:00.440 |
is that you just never know when certain asset classes 00:06:06.680 |
or when they're gonna knock the cover off the ball 00:06:09.000 |
So that's why I think diversification is important, 00:06:15.400 |
if you get to the point where you're thinking, 00:06:22.540 |
As long as you can stick with it, you're fine. 00:06:23.780 |
But it seems like this, Conor, is on the right track here. 00:06:30.980 |
you would think that if you're taking that much risk, 00:06:32.720 |
you would expect a little more outperformance 00:06:36.720 |
- Well, it's just gotten crushed these past 12, 00:06:46.760 |
And they've done better than most people would have assumed. 00:06:52.400 |
but if you zoom out a little bit, which I like to do, 00:06:58.440 |
- Okay, up next, we have a question from Amy. 00:07:07.640 |
- Yeah, my husband and I make good money, six figures. 00:07:13.840 |
But I also have $100,000 in student loans from law school. 00:07:21.440 |
So I don't think we qualify for a financial advisor. 00:07:43.840 |
Third question, should I pay off my student loans 00:07:53.400 |
but I have no idea how to gauge our progress. 00:07:56.440 |
- All right, so this is the middle age question 00:07:58.360 |
where you go from, okay, we've started saving, 00:08:16.820 |
- That's the rankings, you can't argue with those. 00:08:23.320 |
and you've been going through this transition 00:08:26.260 |
with them as well, where when you're just starting off, 00:08:28.160 |
it's setting up the right accounts and getting saving. 00:08:38.000 |
that people think, well, I don't have a million dollars 00:08:49.960 |
but there are many different business models these days 00:08:54.580 |
who has a high income and is going to have assets one day 00:08:57.560 |
and has questions, but you can still find an advisor. 00:09:12.280 |
but so many amazing colleagues that work with 00:09:27.120 |
You don't have infantile financial advisors yet. 00:09:29.820 |
But you reach this point where it's kind of a good problem 00:09:38.880 |
I always describe the best time to figure out 00:09:46.840 |
because your responsibilities have gone up so much. 00:09:49.840 |
You have a couple of kids, you're balancing your career, 00:09:52.520 |
you're knocking 40, you're entering peak earning year. 00:09:57.360 |
stretched thin in almost every part of your life. 00:10:02.440 |
you don't have access to a qualified professional 00:10:11.800 |
As I just said, there are lots of qualified professionals 00:10:16.160 |
- So I think your point that you make is good 00:10:26.140 |
and also outsourcing the worries in some ways. 00:10:28.600 |
Because a lot of these questions that they ask in here, 00:10:35.160 |
And so I think some people at a certain point 00:10:38.600 |
Like help me make a decision and come up with a plan. 00:10:44.240 |
And there's not one answer that's gonna be perfect, 00:10:58.160 |
the best financial decision possible for you. 00:11:01.040 |
Where sometimes there's only one way to do it, right? 00:11:07.280 |
you gotta do your basic estate planning documents. 00:11:10.000 |
Versus, hey, let's talk about what your investment style is. 00:11:29.160 |
And that's where things start to get a little bit complex 00:11:33.880 |
to actually go through formal financial planning. 00:11:43.200 |
You have to also have some sense of ownership 00:12:04.880 |
the advisor's gotta show them how to go about doing that. 00:12:16.040 |
that's gonna bring you through retirement planning, 00:12:20.200 |
The last one about student loans versus 401k, 00:12:24.280 |
I think actually is a little bit more technical 00:12:26.440 |
of how to go about allocating than really goal priority, 00:12:33.600 |
But I think about that question probably like you do, Ben, 00:12:41.320 |
on investing in a 401k or any other type of account 00:12:44.640 |
versus what's the interest rate on that loan, on that debt? 00:12:53.360 |
Well, can we get eight, nine, 10% consistently 00:12:57.600 |
At eight, yeah, we're in an interest rate environment now 00:13:01.940 |
where it's not so clear cut or becoming more clear 00:13:05.400 |
that paying down expensive debt is the way to go, right? 00:13:08.240 |
- Yeah, it was easier when rates were a little lower, 00:13:21.040 |
it's not quantifiable, but that this goal priority thinking 00:13:24.200 |
in terms of like what actually matters to you. 00:13:34.800 |
said the rule number one for picking a financial advisor 00:13:41.040 |
that these are called camper shirts, which I didn't know. 00:13:47.480 |
- We are rocking camper T-shirts apparently, yeah. 00:13:50.200 |
- You're the real fashion expert, but yeah, I guess maybe. 00:13:53.920 |
- You'll receive my consulting invoice in the mail shortly. 00:13:57.200 |
- Yeah, all right, let's do another question. 00:13:59.360 |
- Okay, up next we have a question from Adam. 00:14:08.920 |
- Yeah, we don't count them all in our budget 00:14:19.440 |
A 50, 30, 20 needs, wants savings isn't working for us, 00:14:23.160 |
particularly on things that are automated or fixed, 00:14:27.520 |
What's a reasonable clothing budget or vacation budget? 00:14:33.080 |
- So this is interesting because, so they're in there, 00:14:38.760 |
than they feel in the income that they're receiving. 00:14:51.000 |
well, I should be up here because I have these stock units. 00:14:53.840 |
And unfortunately, in the past couple of years, 00:14:55.480 |
some people have probably had that knocked down a peg or two 00:15:01.040 |
not worth nearly as much as they thought they would be. 00:15:14.200 |
Like I know I'm gonna get some money someday. 00:15:19.400 |
with the understanding that this money's coming, 00:15:39.680 |
depending on what company we're talking about, 00:15:42.180 |
the vesting schedule really having a lot to do with it. 00:15:47.840 |
It's a really great example for what you're mentioning 00:15:50.560 |
with not only the stock being worth less than it was 00:15:55.320 |
but the way they engineer the vesting schedule 00:16:03.760 |
has a lot to do with how you're going to view that. 00:16:07.720 |
And a lot to do with your overall compensation package. 00:16:25.380 |
as truly income, that's supplementing your base salary. 00:16:31.240 |
If your base salary or your household stable income 00:16:34.360 |
through salaries is enough to cover the monthly not, 00:16:40.320 |
as icing on the cake, as long-term investment assets, 00:16:43.440 |
whether you sell it and diversify it or keep it 00:16:46.320 |
because you're long on your company is a separate question. 00:17:05.360 |
but it's a little bit more gaming you, the employee, 00:17:18.040 |
- To your point, you really have to understand 00:17:19.800 |
how these work and every one maybe works a little different 00:17:24.960 |
and then the tax treatment of them and all these things. 00:17:27.260 |
Another potential financial advisor savior here, 00:17:30.740 |
but you better know what you're doing with these 00:17:35.240 |
I'm sure there were a lot of people in Silicon Valley 00:17:37.680 |
who were ready to buy a huge house or something 00:17:40.120 |
because they know these stock options are coming 00:17:47.440 |
Our good friend Morgan Housel wrote a piece the other week 00:17:50.080 |
called "Expectation Debt" specifically around this topic 00:17:57.360 |
in the form of RSUs or performance based options go up, 00:18:02.040 |
but you now got to repay that debt, there's a debt there. 00:18:16.760 |
and now commands that you pay a larger mortgage 00:18:19.920 |
than you thought 'cause you felt rich at the moment, 00:18:26.600 |
and I'm not trying to vilify companies that do this, 00:18:42.860 |
you're gonna pay for that if the stock goes down. 00:18:48.960 |
let's make sure you get more of those shares granted to you 00:18:53.520 |
They're like, no, things are pretty crappy here, 00:19:13.860 |
but you need to have a really good context around that 00:19:18.400 |
so you don't fall into one of those holes later on. 00:19:21.320 |
- Right, and yeah, maybe treat it more like a bonus 00:19:38.140 |
because that's just not how your comp structure is, 00:19:47.100 |
and that's gonna be very hard for a lot of people 00:19:53.300 |
we'd love not to touch this other form of stock, 00:20:13.160 |
- Okay, up next, we have a question from James. 00:20:20.600 |
in terms of savings rate and income needed at retirement 00:20:23.000 |
should differ between single and dual income households. 00:20:37.000 |
so having X percent saved of our income by age 40 is tough. 00:20:41.320 |
It just doesn't seem like the commonly provided targets 00:20:56.000 |
I think this is just more like managing a family, 00:21:03.080 |
And I'm sure these people have seen these charts 00:21:16.200 |
X times your salary saved, or whatever it is, 00:21:18.500 |
because they've run these numbers through the spreadsheet, 00:21:20.480 |
and people look at these and they go this is crazy, 00:21:22.280 |
I'm never gonna get there, I'm way behind already, 00:21:26.960 |
And I think this is a tough place for people to be 00:21:29.360 |
when they're trying to measure against these goalposts 00:21:34.120 |
just have a million dollars to retire, you know? 00:21:36.480 |
Like I remember just hearing that all the time, 00:21:38.120 |
people talking about a million, a million, a million. 00:21:43.400 |
you're actually spending and what your lifestyle is, 00:21:46.960 |
but I think for some people they have to figure out, 00:21:51.800 |
and you never want to hold back on experiences with them 00:21:56.560 |
so I think maybe for some people they have to figure out 00:21:59.040 |
like, can I supercharge savings later in life 00:22:06.080 |
or having some sort of fallback plan in the future 00:22:18.440 |
You know, this question is posed by what I would argue 00:22:21.480 |
are, you know, highly performing or, you know, 00:22:24.220 |
two professionals that are striving to, you know, 00:22:31.000 |
and by the way, career growth and expanding the top line 00:22:33.660 |
is just one of those conversations in personal finance 00:22:37.700 |
because you talk about those rules of thumbs, 00:22:39.860 |
you start to treat this as a linear system, right? 00:22:50.640 |
and that's when things start to become oversimplified. 00:22:58.440 |
"Okay, we're doing great, we're making all this money." 00:23:03.400 |
you send your kids to camp, you're then next year, 00:23:05.240 |
and they love it, you're not not sending them 00:23:07.160 |
to camp the next year, like you're locked into that. 00:23:09.500 |
Like, there's just things you can't walk back 00:23:13.800 |
- I just got sent pictures from my wife today. 00:23:17.960 |
and they're both riding a horse, ear to ear smile, 00:23:22.560 |
they're gonna have to go there every year now. 00:23:32.320 |
You know, and oh, this is gonna be the greatest gift 00:23:36.440 |
Truly, it is a magnificent, life-defining gift 00:23:40.160 |
that equates to an economic function of our household. 00:23:43.560 |
And this type of stuff is what is in this question. 00:23:46.820 |
So let's talk about the thing that's not said is, 00:23:49.480 |
how are they thinking about the trajectory of their careers? 00:23:53.800 |
I would hope that most people hustling in careers 00:23:56.720 |
that first provide for upward mobility and income 00:24:01.280 |
And that could be a dangerous or tricky game to play, 00:24:03.560 |
saying like, look, I'm gonna give them this now, 00:24:09.440 |
This is the active choice to remain this comfortable, 00:24:31.180 |
based on the decisions that you are going to make? 00:24:33.680 |
And then factor in that life's fickle, not linear. 00:24:38.000 |
or you could find yourself moving across the country 00:24:40.080 |
for a great opportunity and making even more money. 00:24:47.680 |
look, we're maxing out 401ks and savings and all this stuff. 00:24:50.840 |
The 529 plans, well, the firm's got to grow again. 00:24:55.460 |
And this is coming from the entrepreneurial side, 00:24:57.840 |
not just the, well, I want to send my kids to campsite, 00:25:05.240 |
we are gonna burn out and become unproductive at our jobs, 00:25:22.920 |
and family is going to be your number one priority, 00:25:31.320 |
or your trips aren't gonna have to be as nice, 00:25:32.840 |
or something, so unfortunately, something has to give. 00:25:35.720 |
If you're living in a high-cost of living area, 00:25:42.220 |
you have to give up something, unfortunately. 00:25:48.360 |
If you wanna have it all, and you look around, 00:25:54.260 |
- Absolutely, for folks that can't increase their top line, 00:25:59.660 |
You definitely then need to focus on the bottom line. 00:26:27.460 |
you have to get super critical about the expenses 00:26:30.520 |
- But I agree with you that the personal finance blind spot 00:26:45.220 |
I tell my clients, "Hey, cool, you got that bonus 00:26:50.740 |
"Just make it one to five of lifestyle to savings 00:26:59.260 |
and you're gonna enjoy life a little bit more too 00:27:05.100 |
Yeah, you're definitely not getting anywhere. 00:27:06.860 |
- Right, all right, we got one more question. 00:27:09.700 |
- Okay, up next, we have a question from Zach. 00:27:18.420 |
"as it relates to my savings, excluding 401k. 00:27:28.700 |
"I currently have about $30,000 in the savings account 00:27:38.700 |
"since I have a cushion in the savings account 00:27:40.820 |
"or continue to split between the savings and brokerage?" 00:27:54.160 |
"I know the 401k, I can't touch that for decades, 00:28:08.820 |
because we actually finally have some short-term yield. 00:28:11.920 |
This is one of the questions we got more than any other 00:28:14.780 |
"I'm saving for a house or I'm saving for a wedding. 00:28:17.280 |
"Where do I put it 'cause interest rates are zero?" 00:28:19.160 |
Now that they're not zero anymore, it's a little easier. 00:28:23.220 |
if they should have some money in the stock market 00:28:26.060 |
because they're gonna be spending it two years. 00:28:31.440 |
the stock market is always very risky in the short-term, 00:28:34.980 |
and especially for something as important as a house, 00:28:46.940 |
But I think you have to have some sort of rule of thumb 00:28:48.420 |
where you say the stock market in a short period of time, 00:28:52.580 |
is too risky for a goal that's this important. 00:29:04.700 |
about when interest rates were low and you got nothing. 00:29:13.220 |
- Yeah, the bottom line is there is no reward 00:29:17.020 |
attractive enough in that short period of time 00:29:20.780 |
to justify the risk that you would need to take 00:29:23.620 |
in order, when it comes to needing that money. 00:29:30.540 |
or you could get 5% in your money market fund, 00:29:35.160 |
In some cases, you really do need to know yourself 00:29:48.880 |
because you decided to invest a good portion of that. 00:29:56.960 |
You got an extra five grand to your name here. 00:30:10.960 |
What if that's the difference of you closing or not? 00:30:14.860 |
you probably did poor planning from the jump. 00:30:16.400 |
- To your point, if you gaining the closing costs, 00:30:34.600 |
I think it's great that for the first time since 2007, 00:30:38.960 |
you and I remember when you could get some yield 00:30:56.520 |
We could talk about a small allocation to fixed income 00:31:03.280 |
But the bottom line is they could lose value too. 00:31:06.680 |
So if you really wanna go crazy and speculate, 00:31:10.640 |
and an amount you're willing to lose and not be there, 00:31:15.920 |
Otherwise, I don't know why you'd take the risk, 00:31:22.800 |
you want your finances as shored up as possible 00:31:25.000 |
'cause there's just not a lot of houses out there. 00:31:26.480 |
- Yeah, you gotta be pretty aggressive on the savings 00:31:32.760 |
depending on what market we're talking about. 00:31:43.960 |
And when you're thinking retirement long-term, go risk on. 00:32:00.200 |
Cool, I write a sub stack called thisisthetop.substack.com. 00:32:03.600 |
You can get to that following me on any social media. 00:32:07.080 |
That's what everyone's trying to get followers on now. 00:32:08.840 |
But it says @DougBonaparte on all your favorite- 00:32:12.680 |
- Can you believe we have to completely start over 00:32:15.840 |
- Not if you're like a massive influencer and celebrity 00:32:20.600 |
I felt like Meta should have given them a delayed start 00:32:26.760 |
but that's not apparently how ad dollars work here. 00:32:34.480 |
Everyone, I know it's uncool to say you don't like threads, 00:32:42.760 |
My general counsel and head of business development, 00:32:50.800 |
You take the Gary V approach of it's not Twitter or threads. 00:33:05.080 |
You know, like, "Oh, your platform's going away, 00:33:11.160 |
with serious dollars behind them from a company like Meta 00:33:16.320 |
- I did sign up for a post account in Mastodon, I think, 00:33:21.240 |
like you were talking about on Animal Spirits, 00:33:33.640 |
All the young people, millennials, asking our questions. 00:33:37.040 |
If you're listening to a podcast, leave us a review. 00:33:39.360 |
You're on YouTube, leave us a comment or a question.