E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more

00:00:00.000 | Captain Calacanis is here reporting for duty.

00:00:03.200 | Where's that Spirit Airlines cap?

00:00:05.000 | Absolutely.

00:00:05.800 | Spirit Airlines.

00:00:06.800 | I just want to say all in podcast now sponsored by Moncler

00:00:11.000 | and Spirit Airlines or now sponsored by the village people.

00:00:15.100 | YMCA.

00:00:18.500 | Are you a pilot or a flight attendant?

00:00:20.600 | Jk.

00:00:21.000 | He's a flight attendant.

00:00:22.000 | I don't think it's thin enough to be a flight attendant.

00:00:24.200 | Are you fat shaming me?

00:00:25.900 | Are you body?

00:00:26.600 | Can't do that nowadays.

00:00:27.800 | I'll get you canceled.

00:00:28.800 | Get exact canceled at this point.

00:00:30.700 | Like fat shaming would be number 72 on the list.

00:00:33.800 | He can't get canceled because all the libs have left Twitter.

00:00:36.700 | There's nobody to there's no home monitors left.

00:00:39.200 | They all pretend.

00:00:41.000 | No, they quit every week.

00:00:42.000 | It's like all the libs.

00:00:43.700 | You said they moved to Canada when Trump got elected.

00:00:45.400 | Yeah, Canada immigration.

00:00:47.200 | Go ahead.

00:00:47.800 | A hacker figured out a way to take all this data and track,

00:01:09.900 | you know, people's yachts, people's planes.

00:01:13.600 | Obviously, one of those people was Elon.

00:01:15.100 | Elon had a security issue.

00:01:16.200 | This is all public information.

00:01:17.000 | So the larger issue at stake here is.

00:01:20.000 | The fact that the law allows for people to do this persistent

00:01:27.100 | tracking of planes, which then becomes persistent tracking of

00:01:31.400 | a person and what really is at stake here is how we define the

00:01:35.000 | term doxing for people who don't know the term doxing.

00:01:37.100 | It means giving a person's location that could be your home.

00:01:39.500 | That could also be your at a location for some period of time.

00:01:41.900 | You're you're at a hotel, you know for a basketball game and

00:01:46.100 | it's pretty clear.

00:01:47.000 | You can take a picture of a celebrity say there's a celebrity

00:01:49.100 | here.

00:01:49.400 | Oh Lady Gaga's at the farmers market.

00:01:50.800 | What I object to here.

00:01:53.000 | We all understand doxing is dangerous and it in fact is against

00:01:56.600 | the law to just give people's addresses and stuff like that.

00:01:59.200 | The issue here is a new type of doxing which I'll call, you know,

00:02:05.300 | persistent coordinated doxing where dozens of times a month,

00:02:09.200 | you're giving a person's location.

00:02:10.300 | It may not be against the first amendment sacks.

00:02:14.500 | I think you would agree but we have to ask ourselves do we want

00:02:17.700 | to live in a world where whether a person's on an electric bicycle

00:02:21.000 | or an airplane or any device in between somebody should be

00:02:24.200 | releasing dozens of times a month a specific dedicated feet of

00:02:28.300 | their location.

00:02:29.000 | It is terrorizing as a parent when this happens.

00:02:33.100 | I've had doxing people on the call here.

00:02:35.500 | I've had various security concerns.

00:02:36.900 | We don't want to live in a world with de facto doxing.

00:02:40.700 | What these sites were doing was de facto doxing.

00:02:43.200 | I think it was a bad decision and I think that it represented

00:02:49.000 | you on the least generous statement would be that it represents

00:02:53.500 | deep hypocrisy in that not just a few weeks ago.

00:02:56.600 | Did he say he would never delete that account?

00:02:58.400 | But he also said he was buying Twitter to enable freedom of speech

00:03:02.400 | and freedom of expression and that he wouldn't come in and do the

00:03:04.700 | same sort of content moderation that was done by the old regime.

00:03:07.700 | And then he came in and did exactly what the old regime did, which

00:03:11.400 | is that he took the rules and he took the quote moderation policies

00:03:15.000 | and he found a way to use them to make some editorialized decisions

00:03:18.800 | that he thought was appropriate.

00:03:19.900 | Now, the more generous thing is what you guys are saying, which I

00:03:23.500 | don't think is necessarily wrong, which is that he's trying to

00:03:26.000 | protect people where there's some loophole or some law that doesn't

00:03:29.900 | seem right morally, but it is the law and it is what it is.

00:03:33.100 | In those cases, I think you run into the exact same issue that the

00:03:38.300 | old guard at Twitter had that the moderators and the executives at

00:03:41.900 | YouTube have dealt with and that the executives at Google have dealt

00:03:44.600 | with and that we sit here and we criticize until you're on that

00:03:47.600 | side of the table and you're forced to make these moderation

00:03:50.500 | decisions.

00:03:51.000 | You're forced to make these policy decisions and you're forced to

00:03:53.300 | implement these policy decisions because of some moral framework

00:03:57.400 | that you now think is appropriate.

00:03:59.000 | And guess what?

00:03:59.700 | Some people will say that's not freedom of expression.

00:04:02.300 | That's not freedom of speech.

00:04:03.900 | You're taking that away from some people.

00:04:05.300 | You're taking this particular case away from a 15 or 16 year old

00:04:08.300 | kid who's built a Twitter feed.

00:04:11.000 | And so I think what it shows is just how hard it is to moderate

00:04:15.100 | these sites, these platforms, and that there is no simple, easy,

00:04:18.600 | idealistic ideologue of, hey, all these things are open.

00:04:22.500 | All these things can be used by anyone all the time, because as

00:04:25.200 | soon as one of these edge cases start to happen, you want to come

00:04:28.000 | in and do something about it.

00:04:28.900 | Shemoth, what do you think?

00:04:29.600 | What should happen going forward?

00:04:30.700 | So I have had these issues happen to me multiple times.

00:04:35.300 | I'm not nearly as important as Elon is, but it feels the same

00:04:40.700 | when you're in the middle of it.

00:04:41.800 | It feels pretty terrorizing.

00:04:44.700 | That being said, I think the real decision for somebody like me

00:04:50.400 | is that if it's too much is frankly just to get rid of it and

00:04:54.200 | you know to find a different mode of transportation that's a

00:04:56.800 | little bit more anonymous.

00:04:57.800 | And you're pragmatic about it.

00:04:59.500 | And the reason I say that is that I just think that you would

00:05:02.400 | have to go and get the government to basically change the law

00:05:05.000 | which they're not going to do.

00:05:06.100 | And so then as a result, your reaction will seem somewhat

00:05:10.800 | contrived and deeply personal.

00:05:12.900 | And in that I think you lose credibility.

00:05:14.800 | Let me just summarize this and be the first one to just state

00:05:17.400 | this. I think that if there's any person in the world that can

00:05:21.500 | figure out Twitter, it's probably Elon.

00:05:24.400 | But man, has he taken on just a gargantuan battle and increasingly

00:05:31.600 | I am not a fan of this battle and I'll tell you why this is a

00:05:35.200 | man who is essentially proven that he can bend the laws of

00:05:39.500 | physics on behalf of humanity.

00:05:41.300 | He's done it twice once in electric cars and once in rocketry.

00:05:45.900 | The problem is that the realm of decision-making at Twitter

00:05:49.400 | has nothing to do with the laws of physics and is governed by

00:05:53.000 | emotions and psychology in which there is no canonically

00:05:57.400 | right answer.

00:05:58.500 | And so he's quickly finding out that half the population will

00:06:01.800 | always find fault with him no matter what he does.

00:06:04.900 | And now the implication of that becomes very important.

00:06:09.100 | We saw yesterday that he had to sell another 3.8 billion dollars

00:06:13.800 | of Tesla stock.

00:06:14.700 | Why is that?

00:06:16.300 | It's because this transaction which was, you know, very tight

00:06:20.800 | to get done probably required lots of margin, you know, there

00:06:24.800 | are I look I have a margin loan at Credit Suisse.

00:06:27.800 | So I know how these things work and you can very quickly get

00:06:30.800 | margin called.

00:06:31.600 | You have to sell down things that you own in order to maintain

00:06:34.400 | your collateral limits.

00:06:35.700 | We've talked about this before.

00:06:37.000 | He's had to do this twice now in the last few weeks and that's

00:06:40.000 | because again not because of the demand at Tesla as far as

00:06:43.600 | we can tell but because people believe he's distracted and

00:06:47.100 | so people are anticipating weakness at Tesla.

00:06:49.300 | People are now shorting the stock.

00:06:51.000 | Anyways, it's causing this downward spiral.

00:06:54.400 | And can he fix it?

00:06:57.400 | I think so.

00:06:58.100 | Can he pull it all out?

00:06:59.300 | Sure.

00:06:59.900 | Is it just putting himself under an enormous amount of pressure

00:07:05.100 | that he could have avoided somewhat?

00:07:07.100 | Yes, and I think that this is sort of where we're at six weeks

00:07:12.500 | in my God.

00:07:13.900 | I mean, I was saying this guy learned in six weeks what it

00:07:17.700 | took YouTube seven years to learn how hard it is to moderate

00:07:20.800 | content and you know, I think this is where I disagree is

00:07:24.600 | you're you're attributing so much good faith to these content

00:07:29.500 | moderators at YouTube and Twitter when the Twitter files

00:07:32.900 | reveal that they made no effort to suppress their bias.

00:07:37.100 | In fact, they were like pretty much dancing in the streets

00:07:43.500 | every time they booted off someone they didn't like.

00:07:45.700 | Fair enough.

00:07:46.100 | Before you react to what Freeberg just said at the end that

00:07:48.200 | coda, can you respond to what I just said?

00:07:50.000 | Isn't it true?

00:07:50.600 | Like it's like well look, I mean if you define what Elon

00:07:54.400 | is, you know doing there as you know, acting as a judge

00:08:00.200 | arbitrating on every little content moderation decision.

00:08:03.700 | Is that a great use of his time relative to what he could be

00:08:06.400 | building at Tesla and SpaceX and doing on behalf of humanity

00:08:09.500 | then? No, clearly not.

00:08:10.900 | But if you define what he's doing in the larger sense as

00:08:13.700 | restoring free speech to the most important Town Square

00:08:17.800 | social network, hopefully thereby inspiring other tech

00:08:21.700 | companies to move in the direction of opening things up.

00:08:24.900 | Then I actually think it's a pretty good use of his time.

00:08:27.000 | So look, I think we can quibble about this or that decision

00:08:30.500 | that he makes or this or that tweet, but I think the overall

00:08:34.100 | thrust of what he's doing is very important for the country

00:08:38.100 | and for humanity.

00:08:39.400 | So I get where you're coming from.

00:08:41.100 | Hopefully he'll find some people at Twitter who he can empower

00:08:44.900 | and trust to make these content moderation decisions.

00:08:47.400 | So he's not drawn into every single little battle, right?

00:08:50.500 | We do want him focused on the highest priority problems.

00:08:53.600 | My point is just that I get that.

00:08:55.500 | I just think that what he's learning and what we're living

00:08:58.800 | and seeing in real time is that there is no canonically right

00:09:02.600 | decision ever in this space.

00:09:04.900 | There's only a decision where some percentage will support

00:09:08.100 | and some percentage will always be against.

00:09:10.000 | That's my point.

00:09:10.900 | Correct.

00:09:11.800 | He did say when he took over he knew that would be the case.

00:09:14.500 | He said you will know I'm doing the good job when both sides

00:09:17.300 | are equally upset.

00:09:19.100 | Just to put a pin in it.

00:09:20.400 | I think it's important for people to understand what the new

00:09:22.200 | policy is.

00:09:22.900 | So I'm just going to quickly read it just to hang on.

00:09:26.600 | Sorry, hang on one sec before you get to because I think the

00:09:28.900 | philosophical point rather than the specific one is an important

00:09:32.400 | one and I just want to respond to what you said and have sacks

00:09:35.800 | respond to this in the case of the points you make around the

00:09:38.800 | Twitter files.

00:09:39.500 | And by the way, I don't agree with any of the moderation

00:09:42.300 | decisions personally.

00:09:43.500 | So I don't think that someone should be suspended for posting

00:09:47.600 | public information.

00:09:48.500 | I don't think someone should be suspended for saying controversial

00:09:50.600 | things.

00:09:51.100 | That's my personal opinion.

00:09:52.200 | Just so I'm clear on that because I know that you know that

00:09:55.000 | we describe yourself as a libertarian speech.

00:09:58.400 | Yeah, libertarian.

00:09:59.500 | Sure.

00:09:59.800 | Okay, got it.

00:10:00.300 | Sure.

00:10:00.800 | And and so in this particular case, I think what really irked

00:10:05.400 | me I was trying to identify why it made me so angry yesterday.

00:10:08.500 | It triggered me.

00:10:09.200 | It really did.

00:10:09.900 | And I think the reason was that in the case of the Twitter file

00:10:12.800 | points, it was a minority.

00:10:15.300 | It was a minority that was affected.

00:10:17.000 | It was one person that was affected because the majority wanted

00:10:20.900 | to do that thing to that person.

00:10:22.400 | And I think in this case, it's that the minority wants to affect

00:10:26.900 | the majority in the sense that Elon has aggregated this control

00:10:30.600 | and this power over moderation and he's benefiting himself and

00:10:34.300 | a few people that have private planes and he's shutting down

00:10:37.400 | hundreds of tweet feeds Twitter feeds that are using publicly

00:10:40.500 | available information.

00:10:41.800 | And so it feels even more onerous of a use of power and influence

00:10:48.300 | because he's taking he's doing something that benefits a small

00:10:51.600 | number and affecting a large larger number.

00:10:54.500 | Whereas the alt whereas the other one was affecting a small

00:10:57.800 | number that benefited a large number because that's what a lot

00:11:00.600 | of people wanted to see happen.

00:11:01.900 | A lot of people wanted to see Trump suspended and it wasn't

00:11:04.600 | right either.

00:11:05.200 | Okay, I don't know if that if that makes sense.

00:11:06.900 | Yeah, we understand your position completely.

00:11:08.700 | I just want to add to that in this policy.

00:11:11.800 | I think it's very important to understand what he is saying

00:11:14.100 | about this accounts dedicated to sharing someone else's live

00:11:17.500 | location are going to be suspended going forward.

00:11:19.500 | You can still share your own location obviously content

00:11:22.600 | required, you know content for public engagements, you know,

00:11:26.300 | the president is speaking somewhere whatever you just really

00:11:28.900 | can't be persistently consistently tracking an individual

00:11:32.700 | otherwise known in you know, sorry, Jason, if any are talking

00:11:36.900 | but Jason if NPR is live tweeting sure Jerome Powell speech

00:11:42.100 | perfect problem XYZ location not a problem if they do Jerome

00:11:46.700 | Powell's location for the next year for the next year 10 times

00:11:52.300 | a week on his off duty on duty.

00:11:55.600 | That's the thing we're talking about.

00:11:56.800 | I'm just saying like let's just say he gives a speech every

00:11:59.200 | week. Is that illegal?

00:12:01.200 | No, if you're really funny if you're giving a speech at a

00:12:04.000 | public place where you've announced that you're going to

00:12:06.600 | be appearing at a certain time and place you've already made

00:12:09.000 | a problem where you're going to be what we're talking about

00:12:11.700 | is and what what what Elon Jett was showing was a live stream

00:12:15.300 | of precision GPS coordinates over a sustained period of time.

00:12:19.300 | Yes, and not to be too dramatic about it.

00:12:21.600 | But if you look at like the weapons are so successfully being

00:12:24.400 | used in Ukraine right now, they're all precision GPS guided

00:12:27.500 | now right now you have to be a state actor to get a hold of

00:12:29.700 | those weapons, but you could imagine over the next decade

00:12:33.200 | that having someone's precise GPS coordinates over a sustained

00:12:37.100 | period of time.

00:12:37.900 | It would be pretty easy to target them for and not to be

00:12:40.600 | too dramatic here, but for assassination.

00:12:42.400 | No, that is a security risk.

00:12:44.200 | There's no way around that.

00:12:45.400 | I brought this up with Palmer lucky man.

00:12:47.100 | I'm scared that Duke come at me anytime when I get my jet.

00:12:50.700 | I don't want Palmer lucky taking me out.

00:12:52.700 | Yo Palmer.

00:12:54.600 | I'm sorry, dude.

00:12:55.800 | Do not take me out.

00:12:57.000 | What I'm going to get my jet.

00:12:58.000 | I'll be on my first flight and he's just going to send a drone

00:13:00.800 | in but look, let's talk about hypocrisy for a second.

00:13:03.500 | Okay, because here we go.

00:13:04.900 | Let's let's talk about CNN's hypocrisy in the media's hypocrisy

00:13:08.300 | because earlier in the week they were saying that any criticism

00:13:11.800 | of Yoel Roth who is Twitter's former head of trust and safety

00:13:15.800 | amounted to a threat to his safety and they had this like

00:13:19.400 | theatrical tweet where they claimed he was having to flee

00:13:22.000 | his house, which a lot of people found pretty preposterous.

00:13:25.600 | They were basically saying that public criticism of someone

00:13:29.400 | who has put themselves out there to engage in a public debate

00:13:32.200 | who's writing op-eds for the New York Times.

00:13:34.000 | That is a threat to safety.

00:13:35.400 | However, publishing someone's real-time location on a continuous

00:13:39.400 | basis so they can be talking about it.

00:13:41.500 | It's not intellectually consistent.

00:13:42.700 | It's not intellectually consistent.

00:13:43.800 | It's not a threat to safety.

00:13:44.300 | That is not.

00:13:44.700 | I'm sorry.

00:13:45.200 | If one of those two things is a threat to safety, it's the real-time

00:13:48.600 | doxing of somebody.

00:13:49.600 | Yes.

00:13:49.900 | I think we now understand why Elon did what he did.

00:13:52.600 | He basically had an incident in LA in which the safety of his

00:13:55.800 | kid was threatened because he's got stalkers coming after him.

00:13:58.900 | So his safety is a real issue.

00:14:00.500 | It's not like a made-up issue.

00:14:02.300 | But why should that look?

00:14:03.400 | Yeah, why should his personal experience affect the usage of

00:14:07.600 | the service that hundreds of millions of people use and that's

00:14:10.000 | the big issue.

00:14:10.700 | The decision should not be based on what affects him personally.

00:14:13.500 | There needs to be a principle basis.

00:14:15.100 | Yeah, it's be a principle basis for any decision about content

00:14:18.600 | moderation or censorship.

00:14:19.800 | Maybe in the first few hours that decision it wasn't handled

00:14:22.600 | perfectly because there wasn't a principle basis.

00:14:24.400 | But since then one has been put in place.

00:14:27.200 | The principle basis is what J Cal showed and this applies to

00:14:30.200 | everybody.

00:14:30.900 | And so, you know now it's a debate about whether that policy

00:14:34.100 | makes sense.

00:14:34.800 | Now is Elon just as arbitrary and capricious as the former

00:14:38.800 | executives who are running trust and safety at Twitter.

00:14:42.200 | I don't think so for two reasons.

00:14:43.900 | Number one, he's promised transparency.

00:14:46.200 | He said that when we ban or shadow ban an account there has

00:14:49.300 | to be a reason for it and you have to be alerted to it.

00:14:51.400 | In other words, none of the shadows stuff.

00:14:53.400 | No shadow.

00:14:54.100 | You need to be informed.

00:14:54.800 | You get your speeding ticket.

00:14:56.600 | You get your ticket.

00:14:57.300 | It's there right no more shadow that is different.

00:14:59.800 | And then the second thing is that and again, I think you

00:15:02.200 | could say they didn't do this perfectly in the first few

00:15:04.400 | hours, but there needs to be a principle basis for a censorship

00:15:07.300 | decision and it needs to be applied to everyone equally.

00:15:10.000 | And so far we haven't seen any basis for believing that he's

00:15:12.800 | not applying this principle equally.

00:15:14.800 | I mean still very early.

00:15:15.900 | Whereas the former rulers at Twitter were indulging their

00:15:19.400 | personal bias and personal preferences and who were they

00:15:22.000 | were banning.

00:15:22.500 | There are two standards of justice.

00:15:24.900 | If you were someone who is allied with them, it was almost

00:15:27.300 | impossible to get censored no matter how hateful your tweets

00:15:31.000 | were. But if you were somebody on the other side of the

00:15:33.000 | political debate, they were eager to suppress you.

00:15:35.200 | And I think that at least so far Elon has not shown that type

00:15:39.400 | of selectivity.

00:15:40.800 | He selected against someone that put him at personal risk.

00:15:44.300 | I think yes, and so here's what I'm saying.

00:15:47.800 | Yeah, if that's where the decision had stayed, yeah, then

00:15:53.000 | I would agree with you, but I think that since then they've

00:15:55.900 | put in place they've undergirded that decision.

00:15:58.500 | I got a personal policy.

00:15:59.800 | I think those sites are I think those tweet streams are cool.

00:16:03.000 | I think there's some cool tweets streams that some of these

00:16:05.500 | people run and there are hundreds of them and they're actually

00:16:07.700 | kind of cool.

00:16:08.100 | You can see where these different labor of people tracking

00:16:10.500 | people's planes like where Air Force One is they show all these

00:16:12.700 | different planes it look and whether or not the FAA should

00:16:15.200 | be publishing the state as a separate question, but it's on

00:16:17.600 | the open internet.

00:16:18.600 | It is already there.

00:16:19.900 | It's like turning off the RSS feed from the open internet

00:16:23.100 | to protect himself.

00:16:24.100 | Okay, that's why it feels owner.

00:16:25.500 | So here's the part I agree with which is I think this policy

00:16:29.000 | with regard to plane specifically is going to be futile.

00:16:31.800 | Yeah, it's going to be at best harm reduction because as long

00:16:35.100 | as there's many ways to publish this information on Reddit,

00:16:37.500 | it's pointless.

00:16:37.900 | It's on Facebook.

00:16:39.200 | So listen, I think this whole I think this whole policy on

00:16:42.300 | Twitter is a little bit of a red herring.

00:16:43.900 | I think the real issue the real underlying issue is that the

00:16:46.600 | FAA is publishing these I count numbers thereby making every

00:16:50.400 | plane personally identifiable.

00:16:51.700 | I don't think there's I have a counter to it.

00:16:54.200 | If I'm necessary, I have a counter to it actually sacks if

00:16:57.000 | I may what we saw whether you agree with it or not with the

00:17:03.000 | mass banning of certain individuals did actually silence

00:17:07.000 | them and take them out of the public square.

00:17:08.700 | One of the reasons in fact, you'll I'm wanting to buy Twitter.

00:17:11.400 | So if you look at certain individuals, whether it's Milo

00:17:14.000 | Alex Jones Trump himself right on down the line when they

00:17:17.700 | got banned across all systems, it was dramatic in terms of

00:17:21.400 | the reach of the that information.

00:17:23.200 | So because of the size and scale of YouTube Facebook Twitter,

00:17:26.900 | etc.

00:17:27.600 | When they act in coordination, they can have a dramatic impact

00:17:32.400 | not a perfect impact but a dramatic which is why we have

00:17:35.000 | this issue of hey should 230 be rethought because when they

00:17:37.800 | act en masse, it is extraordinary what they can do to an

00:17:42.000 | individual they took.

00:17:43.100 | Yeah, Alex Joe.

00:17:44.800 | How do you consume Alex Jones?

00:17:46.900 | You have to seek that out in a major way.

00:17:48.700 | It's distinctly different Chamath last word.

00:17:51.200 | And then we're moving on to what could be the greatest science

00:17:55.300 | corner ever in the history of all in pod final word.

00:17:57.900 | I think this is this is a great transition.

00:18:01.100 | We're about to talk about nuclear fusion.

00:18:02.700 | And my point is I don't care about any of this stuff.

00:18:05.400 | Like I said, like this is my point is like the if you if you

00:18:10.000 | take like an average person, okay, you know, we are let's

00:18:14.500 | say awake 16 hours a day.

00:18:16.500 | And you know, if you take out the time with our family, David

00:18:20.900 | the family is people that are related to you.

00:18:22.900 | We'll get to can we DM sacks those people one more time.

00:18:26.900 | So he has that will send you their names.

00:18:28.500 | But if you take that out and you take out, you know, exercising

00:18:32.900 | and you know, we also explain that to sacks.

00:18:35.500 | That's when you increase your heart rate and sweat sacks.

00:18:38.600 | The point is that you have let's just call it 12 hours, you

00:18:42.100 | know, a functional executive time that you can apply to a

00:18:44.700 | problem and you can break that down into these blocks, right?

00:18:49.800 | I would really love what is basically the smartest human and

00:18:53.900 | the most productive human of our generation to be filling those

00:18:57.900 | blocks with things that sort of like really transcend and

00:19:04.100 | increasingly and I agree that freedom of speech is important

00:19:08.600 | increasingly those buckets are being filled with things that

00:19:12.700 | are very low level and hyper tactical and are distractions

00:19:18.700 | at best to the to the path of free speech.

00:19:21.100 | And so I think that hopefully he gets all this shit under

00:19:26.000 | control over there.

00:19:26.900 | He finds a good executive team.

00:19:29.200 | I would like to see him get back to landing rockets on barges

00:19:34.500 | getting to Mars.

00:19:35.900 | Let's get it getting to finish self-driving.

00:19:39.100 | We're almost there.

00:19:40.000 | Chamath definitely has a point.

00:19:41.500 | But I just say one of the reasons why we don't care that

00:19:43.600 | much about this issue is because I think something to understand

00:19:48.200 | that's important is there are different kinds of speech and

00:19:50.100 | different kinds of speeches are different levels protection.

00:19:52.300 | The fact of the matter is like business advertising is not as

00:19:54.900 | protected as political speech porn is not as protected as

00:19:57.500 | political speech political speech speech criticizing the

00:20:00.700 | people in power is the most protected category of speech

00:20:03.400 | because the founders of the country understood that the

00:20:06.300 | people in power will always try to insulate themselves from

00:20:09.700 | accountability by limiting that kind of speech, but that is

00:20:12.700 | precisely the kind of speech that the former rulers of Twitter

00:20:15.800 | suppress the most and show the least sensitivity to so listen.

00:20:19.800 | I mean is Ilan going to be the perfect content moderator?

00:20:22.200 | No, I mean nobody is nobody nobody is but I do not believe

00:20:26.900 | that puts him in the same category as you know, Vijaya Gaudi

00:20:31.200 | or Yoel Roth who showed no sensitivity for political speech.

00:20:35.200 | He has indicated a desire to restore freedom of speech and

00:20:38.000 | I think they ultimately ended up in a good place.

00:20:40.500 | I want him to get us to Mars.

00:20:42.000 | I want him to get us to Mars.

00:20:43.100 | I don't let's move on to Twitter handles best science corner

00:20:46.600 | ever. So according to sources scientists work for the US

00:20:50.900 | government have achieved a net energy gain in a fusion reaction.

00:20:54.700 | No, no, not net energy gain get it right.

00:20:57.300 | We had ignition energy, which is very different from net energy

00:21:00.900 | game. Okay, hold on.

00:21:01.800 | I know that you're in the anti camp.

00:21:03.200 | Please let the science nerd have you you have to you have to

00:21:06.000 | say it correctly so that people understand what you're talking

00:21:08.400 | about. Let me just make it even simpler than explain to us.

00:21:11.700 | What fusion is Dr.

00:21:13.700 | Friedberg and explain to us why this could potentially change

00:21:17.000 | everything we did this on a on a show once before but I'll

00:21:20.700 | kind of do a quick kind of summary again, basically, if you

00:21:25.300 | take atomic nuclei, which are made of protons and neutrons,

00:21:28.200 | and they repel one another right because protons are positively

00:21:32.700 | charged. So they want to push apart from each other.

00:21:35.100 | So with enough energy and enough density meaning that they're

00:21:37.800 | moving fast enough and they're close enough.

00:21:40.100 | They'll overcome their repulsion and jam into each other when

00:21:43.200 | that happens.

00:21:44.100 | Some energy is released because the total mass of the fusion of

00:21:48.200 | those those nuclei is actually less than those nuclei when

00:21:52.900 | they're on their own.

00:21:53.800 | And so some energy is released and that energy drives a chain

00:21:58.800 | reaction.

00:21:59.500 | And so fusion is this concept that is fundamental to physics

00:22:05.800 | and fundamental to the energy driver of our universe.

00:22:08.100 | So the star in our in our sky, the sun is driven by fusion and

00:22:15.000 | only about 15% of the mass of the sun at the center is dense

00:22:19.300 | enough to actually drive fusion.

00:22:20.900 | So the big challenge with fusion is how do you get these these

00:22:25.000 | atomic nuclei close enough together and moving fast enough

00:22:28.900 | that they'll actually fuse and release energy and that's super

00:22:31.800 | hard.

00:22:32.100 | The reason it happens in the sun is because the sun has so much

00:22:35.400 | mass that the gravity pulls all those particles together, they

00:22:39.600 | get close enough, they get hot enough, they move fast enough,

00:22:41.800 | and fusion happens, boom, all this energy comes out and every

00:22:44.600 | day we're warm.

00:22:45.300 | Now, to do it on Earth is very difficult.

00:22:48.600 | But if we can do it, what happens when you fuse nuclei

00:22:51.700 | together is you don't release any this isn't like a radioactive

00:22:55.400 | fission reaction.

00:22:56.600 | You release energy that can be harnessed to drive our systems

00:23:01.100 | are technology.

00:23:02.100 | How is it done?

00:23:02.800 | Yeah.

00:23:03.400 | So in the 1950s, you know, this was theorized, hey, we could

00:23:06.200 | do fusion on Earth, we got to get a really, really dense plasma

00:23:09.500 | meaning the atomic nuclei and the electrons have kind of gone

00:23:12.300 | off the atoms.

00:23:13.100 | And it's just the nuclei spinning apart.

00:23:14.800 | You got to get them to move super fast, like 10s of millions

00:23:17.600 | of degrees Celsius, and you got to get them really close

00:23:20.100 | together.

00:23:20.600 | So how the heck can you do this?

00:23:22.100 | So there's a couple of concepts to do this, one of which is

00:23:26.100 | called inertial confinement, which is where you basically

00:23:29.200 | create a little pellet of the material, you're going to try

00:23:33.700 | and get to fuse, and you put a ton of energy on the outside,

00:23:36.800 | you compress it really hard, really fast.

00:23:39.300 | And when you compress it really hard, really fast, and you

00:23:41.300 | can get it to be done in a perfect sphere, and you can get

00:23:44.400 | it to collapse on itself very quickly without, you know, kind

00:23:47.900 | of shooting all over the place, enough of those particles

00:23:50.500 | will come close enough together fast enough hot enough, and

00:23:52.900 | they will start to fuse.

00:23:53.900 | Another way is through magnetic confinement, where you use

00:23:57.600 | magnetic fields to create a really hot plasma, get it to spin

00:24:01.300 | around or to move.

00:24:02.200 | And then the magnet brings that super hot plasma closer and

00:24:05.500 | closer and closer together until all those particles are moving

00:24:08.300 | fast, and they're dense enough that they start to fuse.

00:24:10.800 | So you know, one is called magnetic confinement, the other

00:24:13.500 | one's inertial confinement.

00:24:14.700 | And so what we saw happen this week is at the National Ignition

00:24:19.000 | Facility, which is a facility that was built starting in 1997.

00:24:23.000 | And they've spent about three and a half billion dollars to

00:24:25.500 | date, they demonstrated a net energy output from the fusion

00:24:29.400 | reaction of an inertial confinement system.

00:24:31.800 | And what that means is they took a little pellet, and that

00:24:34.700 | pellet was made up of deuterium and tritium, the atomic nuclei

00:24:39.000 | that they use the particles that they use are deuterium, which

00:24:42.400 | is a proton and a neutron stuck together, and then tritium,

00:24:45.400 | which is a proton and two neutrons stuck together.

00:24:48.100 | And the reason they use those two combinations is of all the

00:24:51.300 | different ways you could fuse nuclei together.

00:24:55.000 | This has the best energy output of any kind of reaction.

00:24:58.000 | Freeberg, what actually happened this time that made this work

00:25:02.000 | for what apparently only $3 billion. You said you didn't say

00:25:05.800 | 3 trillion, 3 billion, three, about a third of Yeah, about a

00:25:08.800 | third of what Sam Bankman fraud stole. We have done something

00:25:12.500 | here. Allegedly. So what actually happened that is so dramatic

00:25:17.300 | that we have a press conference, everybody's losing their mind.

00:25:19.500 | So yeah, I just want to highlight one more thing about

00:25:21.900 | why this is so hard. You have to get such an incredible density,

00:25:26.300 | you have to get an incredible energy. So high temperature and

00:25:29.600 | high density, that confining those atoms and not letting them

00:25:34.100 | escape and, you know, basically dissolve before they fuse is

00:25:39.100 | super difficult. It requires so much energy in such a controlled

00:25:42.700 | way in such a perfect and precise way that all of the digital

00:25:46.900 | technology, the magnets, all the measurement systems, all the

00:25:50.700 | software, it's taken us decades to get everything that allows us

00:25:54.500 | to do this today. And now we're at the point that we may be able

00:25:58.100 | to start to realize production scale, kind of versions of this.

00:26:02.300 | So what they did is they had a small deuterium and tritium

00:26:05.700 | pellet. And they shown 192 lasers onto this container that

00:26:09.800 | held that little fuel. 192 lasers, the whole thing happened

00:26:14.300 | in a billionth of a second, the lasers pulsed, boom, here's an

00:26:17.700 | image of it. And as they did that, they, you know, basically

00:26:21.400 | x rays kind of hit the sphere, this little BB, if you will, BB

00:26:26.400 | kind of thing and compressed it and it compressed so quickly.

00:26:29.700 | And with such heat, and it didn't dissipate because it was

00:26:32.100 | done so precisely, all the lasers hit at the exact right

00:26:35.600 | time, boom, this thing compressed, and then energy came

00:26:38.800 | out. And the energy that came out that was measured was one

00:26:41.400 | and a half times the energy that kind of went into that reaction.

00:26:44.500 | And here's a chart that that I'll show you from the National

00:26:46.900 | Ignition Facility, which shows just how inefficient the system

00:26:50.100 | still is. And this isn't even speaking to to Chamath's point,

00:26:54.900 | but basically these guys lose 90% of the energy that they put

00:27:00.700 | into the center of the system, only 10% is actually used to

00:27:04.900 | drive the compression, the rest of it is lost. And there's a

00:27:07.400 | lot of ways to improve the efficiency of the system from

00:27:10.400 | here. But basically, they put two megajoules in, they got

00:27:13.700 | three megajoules out. And so it was the first proof point

00:27:18.000 | production proof point in the 70 years that we've been

00:27:20.800 | theorizing about nuclear fusion here on planet Earth, that this

00:27:24.200 | is possible, and it's real. Now, this is these kind of inertial

00:27:27.700 | confinement systems. There are 33 private technology companies

00:27:32.600 | today that have raised about three to $4 billion so far this

00:27:37.100 | year, to pursue several other technologies, besides what the

00:27:41.400 | National Ignition Facility is showing to try and build

00:27:44.100 | production ready versions of nuclear fusion. And so these 33

00:27:48.700 | companies are using a bunch of different types of tools, one of

00:27:51.700 | which is the tokamak. If you show the image, I'll show you

00:27:53.700 | this one. There it is. Yeah, tokamak. This is what we talked

00:27:56.000 | about. That is the magnetic spinning thing that looks like

00:27:59.540 | Iron Man's arc reactor. Yeah, based it on Yeah, yeah, you

00:28:04.300 | create a plasma, you basically speed up the hydrogen nuclei

00:28:07.580 | super, super fast, these uterium and tritium nuclei, super, super

00:28:11.020 | fast. And then you use magnets and the magnetic field has to

00:28:14.440 | precisely squeeze the plasma, squeezing and squeezing and

00:28:18.160 | squeezing it. And if it's slightly off in even the tiniest

00:28:21.120 | way, think about a balloon, right? If you put a pinhole in a

00:28:24.200 | balloon, everything escapes from the balloon. You got your

00:28:26.480 | account. That's how technically hard this is. You're basically

00:28:30.040 | trying to create a balloon with a magnetic field and you're

00:28:33.200 | trying to keep the gas and you're trying to make it smaller

00:28:35.440 | and smaller and smaller. And if any tiny hole emerges, the

00:28:38.000 | entire plasma.

00:28:39.920 | Is that what happens in Uranus?

00:28:41.580 | Like when you're trying to hold in the Wagyu? Anyway, let me ask

00:28:47.700 | this question then about the consistency of this and then

00:28:52.220 | we'll go to you, Chamath. Can they do it consistently? Or do

00:28:56.120 | you think this is like they got lucky once? Or are we going to

00:28:59.700 | be sitting here a year from now and they're like we put in two

00:29:01.700 | when we got out six. So we did it five times.

00:29:04.260 | Yeah. So now we've proven that humans can do this. Okay. Which

00:29:08.220 | is look, I mean, I want to give you guys some and I know kind of

00:29:11.820 | some of Chamath concerns, which is how humans can recreate the

00:29:14.280 | sun is what we this comes down to. No, no, no, I want to just

00:29:18.960 | say one like, even close. I want to say one important thing from

00:29:23.840 | a historical context. All breakthrough technology starts

00:29:28.640 | out seeming impossibly large, impossibly expensive and

00:29:33.120 | impossibly slow. The human genome project 20 years ago cost

00:29:37.140 | $100 million to sequence the human genome. Today, we can do

00:29:40.600 | it in a couple of minutes for $100. Okay, credible. The first

00:29:44.920 | computer, the ENIAC computer had 500 flops of compute capacity,

00:29:49.320 | it filled a room, it cost $8 million to build. 20 years

00:29:53.180 | later, we had a mainframe.

00:29:54.400 | 20 years later, all the wrong No, this is all this emotional

00:29:57.460 | bullshit. You're using the wrong examples. Okay, let him finish.

00:30:00.560 | Then you go to finish your sentence freeberg. And then we

00:30:02.640 | go. And today we have an iPhone that can do 2 trillion flops of

00:30:07.040 | compute in your pocket. I think that what we're seeing with

00:30:10.600 | fusion today is similar to what we saw with the ENIAC computer

00:30:13.680 | in the 1950s, which is the demonstration that compute is

00:30:16.800 | possible. And now we're seeing a demonstration that fusion is

00:30:19.760 | possible. And a lot of folks have anticipated this moment.

00:30:23.400 | And they've invested ahead of this. Now, I don't know if any

00:30:26.000 | of these companies that are currently kind of being built

00:30:28.080 | are going to be production ready anytime soon. My estimate is

00:30:31.720 | that we will see production demonstration. Okay, fusion,

00:30:35.200 | here we go. 23 in the 2030s. So call it eight years from now

00:30:39.200 | plus, and then you'll see grid scale scale up in the 2040s. So

00:30:43.400 | this isn't something that's going to happen next year or two

00:30:45.400 | years for already happening. What are you talking about? Okay,

00:30:48.120 | now, Chamath your rebuttal. Oh my god, knowing you're a huge

00:30:51.360 | fan of solar. This is the most navel gazing head up your ass

00:30:54.840 | scientific bullshit. I've ever heard. Okay, couple points.

00:30:57.760 | Let's start with the basics. The first is that there was no

00:31:01.880 | previous technical. Why are you being like, why are you angry?

00:31:05.180 | At me? I'm not angry. I find it so tiring hearing this. It's all

00:31:09.680 | syrup. You're a little triggered. He's right. Yeah.

00:31:11.900 | Why? Like, I don't get it. Because I don't find this

00:31:15.380 | intellectually honest. Okay, I find it intellectually

00:31:18.280 | dishonest. Let's keep

00:31:19.160 | on. Let me finish. Let me finish. Okay. When you talk

00:31:24.860 | about sequencing the genome, there was no alternative. So

00:31:28.460 | you're right. It was an enormous technical leap forward. When we

00:31:32.640 | built a computer, there was no analog. It was an enormous

00:31:36.840 | technical leap. And so you're right, we have a cost curve we

00:31:40.320 | don't understand. And then we iterate as rapidly as possible.

00:31:44.200 | And all these innovations where we built an entire

00:31:46.260 | infrastructure to ride down the cost curve. The thing is, fusion

00:31:50.520 | energy exists today. It's called the sun, we actually know how to

00:31:56.360 | capture it at virtually no cost right now. So according to the

00:32:00.280 | IAEA, today, you can capture grid level solar energy for

00:32:04.960 | about 3 cents a kilowatt hour. That's as close to zero as we've

00:32:08.960 | ever been. And over the next 10 years, their forecast is it's

00:32:12.400 | going to get to one and a half cents. If you then want to store

00:32:15.880 | it, and you layer in storage costs will be at a whopping 3

00:32:20.040 | cents a kilowatt hour. That's where we are today. And so I

00:32:25.280 | think that fusion does exist. I do think that this is an

00:32:29.320 | incredible technical leap to replicate something that exists.

00:32:33.880 | And I think that's where the intellectual dishonesty is, it

00:32:37.040 | does exist. It has been captured, it can be harnessed.

00:32:41.400 | And there is a positive energy equation, just in a different

00:32:45.040 | modality that doesn't speak to these technically minded

00:32:47.840 | individuals, a couple of other points about what I saw. I think

00:32:50.920 | it's incredible what happened, okay. But just to make sure

00:32:53.800 | we're clear, this is 192 lasers, the size of three football

00:33:00.120 | fields, that consumed 322 megajoules of energy, which then

00:33:05.720 | ultimately delivered two megajoules to a target, which

00:33:08.640 | then released three. So this is why I'm saying we had positive

00:33:11.200 | what's called ignition energy, we did not have positive

00:33:14.000 | electrical energy captured. So yeah, could we figure this out?

00:33:17.000 | Absolutely. Can we then shrink the three football fields down

00:33:21.320 | to something that looks the size of a laptop? We possibly could,

00:33:25.400 | will it take 20 or 30 years? Possibly. But in the meanwhile,

00:33:29.240 | if the goal is unlimited, costless energy, you're on that

00:33:33.320 | cost curve already.

00:33:34.600 | Yeah, but why can't it be both? So you said I was being

00:33:37.040 | intellectually dishonest. What was I dishonest? Yeah, you're

00:33:41.120 | comparing what you're saying is right. Yes, you can get you

00:33:44.080 | would you seem to be an agreement? Like, yeah, I just

00:33:47.440 | think that I think that you're trying to say that this is an

00:33:49.640 | entirely new thing. No, it's a different approach to a thing

00:33:53.440 | we've already beaten and basically captured.

00:33:57.120 | Let me bring what I would argue to my and I think this is

00:34:00.040 | important be the net energy you can capture on, say, a football

00:34:04.000 | field sized facility from solar is, you know, a tiny fraction of

00:34:08.440 | the energy you could generate from a football field sized

00:34:11.320 | fusion reactor. And that's why the argument would be like,

00:34:14.240 | hey, you know, when we were developing computers, hey, we

00:34:16.920 | have abacus is we shouldn't be developing computers. And I

00:34:19.360 | think that's, that's the analogy I would use here.

00:34:21.200 | This is why the cost per kilowatt hour is what the the

00:34:25.520 | levelized cost of energy tries to do. It tries to, to normalize

00:34:29.880 | that argument away, because everybody would say that, hey,

00:34:33.160 | hold on a second, you're going to need plainfuls of this or

00:34:36.320 | boatloads of that. And people said, No, what's the levelized

00:34:39.400 | cost of energy? How what is the cost per kilowatt hour to

00:34:42.800 | generate energy? And what I'm saying is, that is an absolute

00:34:46.960 | scale, and free is zero, and we're at 1.5 cents.

00:34:50.880 | Here's what I would say once check out one sec, the okay,

00:34:53.600 | come off, the opportunity here is not necessarily about cost

00:34:57.400 | reduction, it is about scalability. And if hydrogen is

00:35:01.000 | abundant, which it is on this planet, it is nearly infinitely

00:35:04.280 | abundant, we can take that hydrogen, and we can scale up

00:35:07.720 | energy and electricity production in a way that is

00:35:10.120 | unimaginable compared to solar. And I don't think that solar

00:35:13.440 | should be excluded. Solar is key today and should be scaled

00:35:16.920 | up. And I'm 100% agreement with you. But the scalability to go

00:35:19.960 | 100 x if we want to make 100 times more electricity, I think

00:35:24.000 | we need fusion. And I think that's feasible.

00:35:25.960 | So I think we have reached a good settlement here. Chamath

00:35:30.840 | you're saying, Hey, listen, we're getting solar down so

00:35:33.520 | cheap, we can solve this problem, all forms of energy.

00:35:35.920 | Okay, great. We are solving that. So for our needs today,

00:35:39.000 | and then what freeberg is saying, but what if you had

00:35:42.360 | unlimited a thing that we can't even imagine? Beautiful. Now,

00:35:46.080 | watch, as I get sacks involved in a science conversation. He

00:35:50.040 | has zero interest in Mr. David sacks. If in fact, there was 100%

00:35:57.880 | more free electricity available in this time frame, the next

00:36:00.960 | 100 to 200 x 100 x the available energy, in other words, supply

00:36:05.680 | of energy just becomes flooded. And it's free, essentially, what

00:36:10.400 | would be the geopolitical reaction on planet Earth in

00:36:14.560 | terms of this incredible rivalry, rivalry we have with

00:36:18.840 | China, and for humanity on a political basis? Such a good

00:36:23.360 | question. J. Go ahead, sir. Good question. Here we go. Thank you.

00:36:26.400 | World's Greatest moderator. Why don't we let freeberg answer?

00:36:28.840 | No, no, you're the politics guy. Get in there. Take a second to

00:36:32.160 | think it through.

00:36:32.640 | He has thought about this. Let's I want to hear his answer. I

00:36:36.280 | actually want to hear your answer. Yes. You know, in a

00:36:38.520 | world where you know, energy becomes more abundant, David

00:36:42.040 | hasn't been paying attention, guys. This is what he's trying

00:36:44.200 | to say. Tucker,

00:36:47.160 | Jake, I'll call your intellectual dishonesty and

00:36:53.360 | raise you a steel man. Go ahead.

00:36:55.080 | I love you. I love you. You know, I do. I like to have a

00:37:01.120 | great night on Monday night, a Sunday night. Great. Let's talk

00:37:04.200 | later. I just want to be together last week. You call me

00:37:08.160 | petty to I think we're well, here's what I want to be clear.

00:37:10.520 | I think that I'm just glad you guys are fighting not mean sex.

00:37:14.080 | Guys, please let me finish. Okay, I think that this

00:37:16.280 | breakthrough is really valuable. I think it's interesting to see

00:37:19.640 | that these kinds of scientific breakthroughs continue to happen

00:37:22.800 | in government sponsored facilities and not private

00:37:25.320 | companies. And I think that that's probably where a lot of

00:37:28.520 | these innovations will continue to come from because look at the

00:37:31.160 | scale of what had to be built. Three football fields and 322

00:37:35.160 | megajoules of energy and 192 lasers. This is really

00:37:38.280 | complicated, expensive stuff. I'm an enormous fan of these

00:37:41.320 | kinds of scientific breakthroughs. I want to be

00:37:42.760 | clear. I think that where I struggle is translating this

00:37:48.240 | into actually an investable area. And I worry that this is

00:37:52.920 | going to consume lots of money by folks that could otherwise

00:37:57.480 | put money to work in things that will actually pull forward our

00:38:01.280 | energy independence and energy abundance sooner and faster. So

00:38:04.360 | for example, you know, there are all kinds of things that we

00:38:07.640 | could do to secondary, ternary, third, fourth and fifth

00:38:11.800 | generation batteries that aren't happening today. There are a

00:38:14.600 | bunch of things that we could do to actually create an

00:38:16.760 | infrastructure of green hydrogen. And the the

00:38:19.480 | simplistic answer is we could do it all. But the reality is

00:38:22.680 | money is finite, and we can't. And all I'm observing is I do

00:38:27.400 | think that more practical things that do have geopolitical

00:38:30.120 | ramifications sooner are not going to get funded because

00:38:34.280 | people do get enraptured by this. And my skepticism is that

00:38:38.680 | this is still in the realm of government sponsored research

00:38:42.600 | and is not really an area that for profit private companies

00:38:47.080 | can tackle. And so I would rather those for profit

00:38:49.320 | companies, for example, why combinator just today, put out

00:38:52.800 | something where they were, you know, call to action a request

00:38:55.240 | for startups in climate. And when you look at that list,

00:38:58.280 | those are really practical, investable areas. And I just

00:39:01.160 | want to make sure that the capital allocators that listen

00:39:03.520 | to this, weigh those equally. I am glad. I'm glad that the US

00:39:08.480 | government did this. I hope they do more of this. But if you're

00:39:11.800 | asking me quite honestly, I would rather the next $10

00:39:14.200 | billion go into energy efficiency HVAC, then fusion

00:39:18.880 | because a fusion exists and B, I think it's going to happen at an

00:39:23.080 | innovative bench scale level by the government and not by a

00:39:28.000 | particle.

00:39:28.440 | Let me let me just respond to that real quick. Tomorrow. I

00:39:31.840 | think that the idea of allocating our resources as a

00:39:35.200 | society should be done on kind of, you know, on a portfolio

00:39:39.120 | basis, 80% on the pragmatic near term, 15% on the kind of next

00:39:44.320 | gen and 5% on the moonshot. And this maybe starts to shift from

00:39:48.680 | the 5% to the 15%. Maybe it's still in the 5%. But I don't see

00:39:52.840 | kind of overfunding happening. So I'll tell you guys there was

00:39:55.400 | a survey done. There's 33 private companies in fusion that

00:39:58.680 | are kind of fusion companies today. VC back eight new this

00:40:02.720 | year. So the number is kind of increased by 33% this year. And

00:40:07.120 | so far this year, those companies have raised around

00:40:09.600 | three to $4 billion, which by the way,

00:40:11.640 | is a fraction of what was done by 15 minute delivery companies

00:40:16.280 | for convenience stores.

00:40:17.240 | Exactly my point. And and by the way, the biggest funding is

00:40:20.000 | happening in iter, which is the largest construction project in

00:40:23.320 | Europe. And this is a $30 billion production scale fusion

00:40:27.640 | demonstration system that should be online by the end of the

00:40:29.800 | 2020 government sponsored government sponsored. Yeah. And

00:40:32.480 | so to my point, I'm a huge fan of government sponsored

00:40:35.320 | research. We get finally, the first science corner, everybody

00:40:39.720 | brace themselves. It's the first science corner, where David Sacks

00:40:43.160 | has the cherry sacks. Here we go. Come on, you can do it. You

00:40:45.920 | can do it. Mr. David Sacks.

00:40:47.520 | What was your question? Your question was a little bit was

00:40:51.680 | was not a

00:40:52.280 | let me reframe. Okay, I'm coming in. What's the geopolitical

00:40:55.360 | impact if this does happen 100x energy? It's fantastic for the

00:40:58.720 | United States if it actually happens. And the reason is, if

00:41:01.440 | you look across the world, there's this thing in politics,

00:41:05.120 | known as resource curse, where the worst governments, the most

00:41:09.240 | despotic governments tend to be in the countries that have the

00:41:13.560 | biggest natural resources, ironically, so the countries

00:41:17.680 | that have huge amounts of petroleum or other kinds of

00:41:20.600 | minerals, they've tend to have pretty corrupt governments. And

00:41:25.480 | the reason for that is that if you're sitting on a giant oil

00:41:29.480 | reserve, you don't need to make anything else work, you just

00:41:31.960 | fight over who gets to control that oil reserve. And that's

00:41:34.760 | what politics ends up being, you don't need to create policies

00:41:38.480 | that foster innovation, or attract knowledge workers,

00:41:42.120 | right, you just basically mine that oil. So if all of a sudden,

00:41:46.200 | you're talking about turning energy into a software problem,

00:41:50.560 | or an innovation problem, that looks a lot more like the

00:41:53.480 | software industry. That's an area where the United States has

00:41:56.400 | a huge advantage. And yeah, I think it would pull the rug out

00:41:59.480 | from under many countries all over the world in favor of the

00:42:03.400 | United States. I mean, it's a big if because where I agree

00:42:06.840 | with Chamath is this stuff still seems pretty far off. And it's

00:42:10.400 | still pretty unproven from a commercial standpoint. But I

00:42:14.080 | agree with freeberg, why not try investing in and cultivating it

00:42:17.800 | and see where it goes.

00:42:18.620 | Okay, fantastic. This was a fantastic science corner, where

00:42:22.500 | we actually engage David Sachs, which country

00:42:25.580 | did you disagree with their J cow?

00:42:28.740 | All right, take it easy. Yes, I just want to let you know, I

00:42:32.140 | think you like that answer, right? Well, I love all of your

00:42:36.020 | intellectual enough for you. Or was I love your intellectually?

00:42:39.140 | I love it wasn't

00:42:40.700 | knows I was a steel person. felt silver silver silver manning.

00:42:46.300 | But I love what your intellectually silver person.

00:42:49.220 | Yes, you're silver. They're silver thing.

00:42:51.860 | Was that was that platinum, gold or silver?

00:42:54.500 | I think that's your you're in platinum with some diamond dust.

00:42:57.380 | I just can I just say spent a couple nights together this past

00:43:01.180 | week has really really done the mood of the show. I mean, when

00:43:03.580 | you guys go out and drink together and you guys are

00:43:06.820 | left our asses off Sunday night. Can I just say, we Saxon I had

00:43:11.260 | the best 48 hours together in a decade. This is Sunday night.

00:43:15.460 | It turns out Chris rock and Chappelle are playing at the

00:43:17.900 | Chase Center, where Chamath used to own a piece of the Warriors,

00:43:21.540 | right. And this incredible arena has this incredible show. And you

00:43:27.180 | know, me and Saxon, some friends will leave it at that go to the

00:43:29.820 | show. Our bestie dream on is at the show. So I text Dre and I'm

00:43:34.340 | like, Hey, you're going to see Chris rock by chance tonight

00:43:36.620 | with Chappelle? Say yes, sir. I said, Hey, we're gonna go with a

00:43:40.180 | couple of friends. Maybe we roll together hang out after the

00:43:42.620 | show. We go. And after the game after the show, which was

00:43:48.340 | incredible. We go backstage and I'm sorry to the to the practice

00:43:53.340 | court. And we're hanging out with dream on in the practice

00:43:56.300 | court with Dave Chappelle, Dave Chappelle, and I start shooting

00:44:00.460 | hoops. David Sacks is talking to Chris rock about free speech.

00:44:04.260 | Steph Curry comes out and starts giving Dave Chappelle and Jay cow

00:44:10.020 | a shooting lessons. Where Chappelle and I are breaking

00:44:14.580 | like old men, you know, you know, on a concrete court, all

00:44:19.140 | of a sudden, Steph says, Hey, Jay, how you got it? And by the

00:44:22.300 | way, he's fan of the show. He says, you're short every time.

00:44:25.420 | And just, you know, hit the backboard, you got to go long,

00:44:28.260 | then he tells Chappelle, you got to change this. All of a sudden,

00:44:31.100 | we start hitting shots like, you know, we're on the rain,

00:44:33.460 | injuries, you're raining, freeze, rain. It was literally

00:44:36.260 | like cut into here were these mid range jumpers or threes. I

00:44:39.220 | was a free throw line extended free throw line extended cut

00:44:42.900 | into here rain man and rain dance from a long came Polly

00:44:47.140 | rain dance rain.

00:44:48.060 | Let it rain.

00:44:50.780 | Rain is

00:44:54.140 | literally

00:44:57.780 | I was hitting brick after brick, rest in peace, Philip Seymour

00:45:02.020 | Hoffman. So then we're chilling. And Saxon are talking to Dave

00:45:07.020 | Chappelle.

00:45:08.940 | Joe Lakeham owner of the Warriors are there the majority

00:45:11.740 | owner, you know, as opposed to you being a minority owner.

00:45:14.740 | Chamath

00:45:16.220 | that's right.

00:45:17.900 | The only person who drops more names is Phil Hellmuth. I mean,

00:45:22.060 | absolutely. I'm trying to catch up anymore.

00:45:23.980 | No, he's only got three names.

00:45:28.020 | Saxon, am I leaving? I want to say it's so bad, but I'm not

00:45:31.540 | gonna say not dancing. So brutal. There'll be zero docks.

00:45:36.540 | So we I kid you not. Chappelle comes over and says, Jacob,

00:45:41.660 | fact, you guys want to go to after to do it. Go go see me do

00:45:47.100 | a show at like 1am at this like local comedy club with 70 seats.

00:45:50.140 | I said word. Yes, we go at 1am. Chappelle sits on stage, smoking

00:45:57.580 | cigarettes.

00:45:58.340 | And

00:46:01.340 | doing 90 second pauses, and then having a beer and

00:46:06.420 | interacting with the audience. And does a two hour set after

00:46:09.820 | doing this set with Chris rock at the Chase Center. Me and Saxon

00:46:13.460 | Draymond hilariously laughing. The stuff Chappelle is a genius.

00:46:19.980 | And when you see his show and Chris rock, by the way, he puts

00:46:23.660 | a tight set together. I mean, Chappelle's got this

00:46:26.380 | storytelling thing where he kind of meanders a little bit and

00:46:29.100 | then he hits you with it. But Chris rock is just bang, bang,

00:46:31.980 | bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. Extraordinary, just two

00:46:35.260 | incredible minds at the top of their game artists, artists at

00:46:39.220 | the top of their game, doing what society needs. But more

00:46:43.700 | importantly, doing what David Saxon I needed, which was to

00:46:47.420 | laugh our asses off together and remember our friendship. So it

00:46:51.140 | was a great night out. I want to say to bestie Draymond Dave

00:46:54.060 | Chappelle and Chris rock. Thank you. The David Sacks J. Cal

00:46:58.220 | bestie friendship has never been stronger. I don't know about

00:47:01.220 | freeberg and Chamath that seems to be on the rocks.

00:47:03.420 | Yeah, it's weird. We'll be in. We'll be we'll be vacationing

00:47:07.420 | together next week. So I love I love freeberg. Yeah. Well, well,

00:47:11.740 | we are going to be whatever, whatever's going on. We'll take

00:47:14.180 | a walk and figure it out.

00:47:15.180 | Well, I just want to say the alliances amongst the besties

00:47:17.900 | people. I'll be honest, I got mad at freeberg when he edited

00:47:21.740 | that Google bit to say the exact opposite of what he actually

00:47:24.460 | said that we don't bring that up. Yeah, just beep that. But

00:47:27.980 | yes, that is the thing that bothered me. I have to be

00:47:30.500 | honest. That's you playing to the crowd versus you being

00:47:33.340 | honest and telling what you think freeberg that freeberg

00:47:36.260 | can let me put that in the form of a question freeberg has your

00:47:39.260 | fame as the sultan of science. Because listen, you nobody knew

00:47:43.260 | who you were outside of Silicon Valley before this. Has it

00:47:45.980 | impacted your ability to speak?

00:47:47.460 | No, no, no, not my family. Look, I'll be I'll be honest. And I'll

00:47:52.740 | speak openly about this. I had said that there could probably

00:47:55.140 | be a significant headcount reduction of like 75% at Google

00:47:59.740 | and the business could keep operating. And I took it out.

00:48:02.940 | And I took it out because I have a lot of friends that work at

00:48:06.100 | Google. Google is a close partner of mine. They're an

00:48:08.980 | investor of mine. And frankly, I just want to be careful about

00:48:12.860 | that. It's not something I commonly do. You know, as you

00:48:15.260 | guys know, I usually speak my mind pretty clearly, but I was

00:48:17.140 | just trying to be respectful. And that's the reason I did it.

00:48:19.340 | You know, so that was fine. What I'm saying is not that it's

00:48:23.260 | just that the part that you edited in actually made it seem

00:48:27.820 | like you were not saying that at all. But the opposite, I think

00:48:30.300 | if you had cut the whole thing, it would have been more honest.

00:48:33.140 | So to keep that other thing in actually led the perception of

00:48:36.420 | the opposite. So I think that I think no, no, I don't want to

00:48:40.500 | trigger it. I'm saying, but I think you should have a

00:48:41.900 | principle. I don't hold on very often tomorrow. Like, yeah, I

00:48:44.980 | know. I think that we should just have a principle to not

00:48:48.660 | play to what the perception of what we say should be,

00:48:51.180 | especially if it means we could be saying the opposite of what

00:48:54.020 | we actually mean. That's all

00:48:55.460 | intellectual honesty is a best tenant. It's a best tenant. I

00:48:59.780 | think so. Absolutely. Bestie 10. Always and the other bestie

00:49:02.540 | tenant besties always come back together. If we have a fight, we

00:49:04.620 | always come back together. Saks.

00:49:06.580 | Can I'm still mad at you? Just kidding. Okay, but just talking

00:49:12.340 | about hypocrisy. I mean, so how great was Sunday night? How

00:49:15.660 | great was that gets up there and he gets like right out of the

00:49:17.980 | gate. He's attacking woke right out of the gate.

00:49:20.820 | Swinging came out swinging like Will Smith.

00:49:23.740 | shooksmith. You mean?

00:49:26.700 | shooksmith. He took down Will Smith. I mean, the Will Smith

00:49:31.460 | takedown, which you will see in this special is so complete. It

00:49:36.660 | is just chef's kiss. But how great was his set? Let's say

00:49:40.740 | just give Chris Rock his flowers.

00:49:42.380 | He did he did he fillet and fricassee?

00:49:46.500 | He, he did. But I thought the more important part of the set

00:49:49.420 | was the he came right out like calling out all this, you know,

00:49:53.020 | you know, holier than thou woke stuff. Yeah. And there was that

00:49:57.740 | undercurrent to Chappelle's set as well.

00:50:00.140 | And also he said, Listen, words can't hurt you. Unless you write

00:50:04.740 | them on a piece of paper and time to a brick. We these a

00:50:09.660 | bigger point right now and this does tie into our first story is

00:50:12.740 | I think comedians look at Twitter as a place to get

00:50:15.940 | canceled, not a place to be part of the discourse. And that's a

00:50:18.940 | huge loss that's indicative of our society being broken. And

00:50:23.300 | it's incredibly important that these comedians be allowed to

00:50:28.860 | mock and to speak and to step over the line and challenge us

00:50:34.860 | as citizens in a free society. And we should cherish them. And

00:50:39.220 | we should not even try to cancel them, let them cross the line,

00:50:42.740 | let them say things that make us uncomfortable, so that we can

00:50:45.780 | understand ourselves and our society better. And I just want

00:50:49.020 | to say, Why can't you include lives of tick tock in that? Oh,

00:50:52.380 | do we want to have a discussion about it? I can't go. I'm okay

00:50:57.500 | with mocking. I just don't start you guys. You did so well. Come

00:51:00.500 | on. Here we go. No, J. Cal cut it out. All right. Well, we have

00:51:04.500 | two more science corners to get. All right. You know what I mean?

00:51:09.780 | I just know what's wrong about the Coupa deal. And sex. This is

00:51:12.860 | right up your alley. Have you

00:51:14.940 | touched into it? To be honest? Oh, really? The thing you guys

00:51:18.060 | asked is like, you know, what signal will Elon's moves at

00:51:22.940 | Twitter be for the rest of the tech industry? I think the

00:51:27.820 | biggest wake up call is to actually PE companies. So if you

00:51:32.420 | play this out, and you think that Coupa is, you know,

00:51:36.620 | explain what is, please. Coupa is a is a software as a service

00:51:41.140 | company that does revenue management, I guess, or expense

00:51:45.660 | forecasting or some something in the financial realm. I don't

00:51:49.260 | particularly know to be honest. But anyways, this is a company

00:51:52.420 | that you know, was off 70 or 80% from the high like a lot of SAS

00:51:56.340 | companies were when rates started to go up. And they got

00:52:00.420 | this offer from from Toma Bravo. But here's what's so interesting

00:52:03.700 | about this deal. If you think that, you know, these guys

00:52:07.140 | bought a company, I'm just going to make up a number at 20 times

00:52:10.980 | EBITDA. Right. And, and you see Elon at Twitter, and you think,

00:52:16.980 | well, wait, maybe we can't cut 75%. But maybe we can cut 50%

00:52:20.420 | headcount and the company can still do well. And, you know,

00:52:23.940 | you take half of the expenses out of the business. All of a

00:52:27.620 | sudden, you know, if you're even two doubles, you're actually

00:52:29.580 | buying it at 10 times. So I think the thing that is the that

00:52:34.820 | is the real insight here is twofold private equity can still

00:52:40.340 | put out a lot of private credit to fund these deals. And SAS

00:52:43.420 | companies are perfect because they have huge free cash flow,

00:52:45.580 | right. So instead of funding it based on earnings, they can fund

00:52:48.460 | it based on ACV and ARR. So private equity will be super

00:52:52.100 | active. And to all these rifts basically show what the

00:52:56.820 | efficient frontier is for the number of employees you need to

00:52:59.020 | run a company. And if you can cut 50% of the headcount,

00:53:02.340 | private equity folks will do that. And so I think Cooper is

00:53:06.620 | like the canary in the coal mine, it is the beginning of

00:53:10.380 | what I suspect is a tidal wave of PE sponsored deals in tech

00:53:16.820 | companies, largely SAS, but may go into other realms, recurring

00:53:21.300 | revenue, that can go to these two things, tap the private

00:53:24.660 | credit markets and finance it based on ARR, and then fire 50%

00:53:28.940 | of the team and double earnings capacity.

00:53:30.780 | Zach, your thoughts.

00:53:31.620 | So on on Cooper, I thought the most interesting thing was just

00:53:35.500 | the we got a public comp, well, we got a comp on what private

00:53:39.620 | equity is paying for public companies right now. So the deal

00:53:43.620 | happened at an $8 billion valuation, that was a 31%

00:53:47.620 | premium to the public price. It was 8.4 times next 12 months

00:53:52.260 | revenue. And on a trailing basis, it was about 10.4 times

00:53:58.140 | the last 12 months revenue. And by the way, all the comments

00:54:01.220 | were around how what a rich price Toma Bravo was paying

00:54:05.060 | people generally thought they're paying a premium to the

00:54:07.580 | valuation. So it was 77% premium before the rumors came out that

00:54:13.740 | this was happening. So the premium, yeah, and there was and

00:54:16.900 | there was a there was a bidding war with Vista. And so it was a

00:54:21.300 | it was a really rich kind of deal that got done here.

00:54:24.020 | Right. So my point is that people thought this was a really

00:54:27.700 | rich deal. And yet the valuation multiples are so much lower than

00:54:31.820 | what private company founders expect. So remember, last year,

00:54:36.020 | at, you know, the peak, founders were thinking 100 times AR was

00:54:40.820 | normal 100 times, and, you know, you could roughly say, you know,

00:54:44.580 | AR is roughly equivalent to next 12 months revenue. It's not

00:54:47.820 | perfect, but it's roughly the case. So these founders were

00:54:51.420 | expecting evaluation, multiple 10 times what the public markets

00:54:56.980 | are paying. And the public more and actually, the public markets

00:55:00.300 | are half of where Toma Bravo was in this particular deal. So the

00:55:04.740 | public markets right now are valuing the median SaaS company

00:55:09.780 | at about five and a half times, and a high growth with that be

00:55:12.780 | for like a 20% year over year growing company. And they're

00:55:15.460 | valuing the high growth companies that may be eight

00:55:18.060 | times, you know, and Toma Bravo did this at 10 times. So that

00:55:22.020 | gives you a sense of what the ballpark is. And these are

00:55:24.300 | companies that are already public, they're at scale,

00:55:26.980 | they're doing roughly a billion dollars of AR, they have already

00:55:30.940 | kind of won their category, to some degree, whereas private

00:55:34.820 | companies are subscale. They're, you know, typically, you're

00:55:37.900 | talking about companies with one, five, 10, usually under

00:55:41.180 | $20 million of AR, they are, they're not de-risk, there's

00:55:44.700 | still a ton of risk. We've seen many, many SaaS companies

00:55:48.060 | fizzle out and plateau at 20 million of AR, never get to 100

00:55:52.340 | million, nevermind a billion. And yet these founders think

00:55:55.300 | that they're entitled to, you know, even in this market, 30

00:55:59.100 | to 40 times AR, no way. I mean, like, it's getting to the point

00:56:02.700 | now where, you know, maybe it should be 10 times 20 times like

00:56:07.620 | max, for that to be for a company that's growing two and a

00:56:11.140 | half, three x year over year. So I still think that like, so I

00:56:14.220 | think basically, what we're seeing here is even a good

00:56:16.740 | scenario, like a coupe acquisition that was done at a

00:56:19.900 | premium, like it's still a wake up call to the private markets

00:56:23.580 | that the valuations are still completely and utterly out of

00:56:25.980 | whack.

00:56:26.380 | Yeah, let me ask you a question, Zack. So this company was

00:56:29.220 | growing 45% last year, they're growing 35% this year. And they

00:56:33.580 | got this multiple. Why is it not worth a significantly higher

00:56:38.180 | multiple if a company is growing two and a half to three x, which

00:56:41.020 | is 250% 300%. And these guys are only growing 35%.

00:56:45.340 | Sure. I mean, it is. And that's what you're paying a premium

00:56:48.940 | for. But so the so the here's the theory of it is that if you

00:56:53.300 | can invest in a private company that say tripling year over year,

00:56:55.860 | and they can do that for another five years or whatever, then

00:56:59.100 | you're paying for that you're paying for that outcome in a

00:57:01.060 | couple years. Basically, well, think about it discount to the

00:57:04.220 | outcome in a couple years. Well, if you're paying 30 times today,

00:57:07.060 | and it triples next year, you're only paying 10 times next year.

00:57:09.580 | And if you're only paying three times, so if that keeps going,

00:57:12.940 | that's where your arbitrage is. But here's the thing you have to

00:57:15.980 | weigh against that is that these early stage private companies,

00:57:19.460 | many things go wrong. And they hit a plateau, they fizzle out

00:57:23.180 | or their growth rate starts to the bigger they get, the harder

00:57:27.300 | they should be priced at a discount, not a premium, because

00:57:30.580 | there's risk, there's more risk, they're growing faster, but

00:57:33.740 | there's more risk. But also, it's very hard once you get to a

00:57:37.060 | bigger number of ARR 50 100 million of ARR, it's extremely

00:57:41.420 | difficult to be doubling or tripling year over year. Let me

00:57:43.580 | just point one thing out. So I looked at the numbers on Coupa.

00:57:46.540 | I think they had about 170 million of stock based comp

00:57:49.460 | expense in the last nine months. So those are employees that are

00:57:54.900 | getting $170 million in compensation in the form of

00:57:59.340 | shares. So they get those shares, they can then sell those

00:58:01.820 | shares and get cash for them on the market, and then on the

00:58:05.460 | public markets and pay their bills. So when a company like

00:58:08.420 | this goes private, for those employees to just remain at

00:58:12.500 | their baseline comp, that stock based comp needs to be replaced

00:58:16.860 | with something else, or else they're seeing their salaries

00:58:19.500 | reduced. So, you know, there's this balancing game when these

00:58:23.820 | companies go private, in terms of how do you give them the comp

00:58:28.020 | that they're earning to keep them engaged in the business,

00:58:30.700 | the answer is don't versus no, but you let them you let them

00:58:33.900 | quit because you want to do a riff anyway. Right. So I mean,

00:58:36.940 | do you but for the people that stay, right, so there's a

00:58:40.260 | balance because it's not just hey, cut the opex, you have to

00:58:43.460 | cut the opex, including stock based comp. And this company

00:58:46.220 | generated about $100 million, sorry, $210 million of free

00:58:52.660 | cash flow or operating cash flow in the last 12 months. So if you

00:58:56.660 | if you take out the stock based comp, these guys are actually

00:59:00.020 | break even or losing money roughly. Yeah, so yeah, and

00:59:03.780 | break even roughly. So there's a real question mark on this

00:59:06.980 | business and businesses like this that go private, where if

00:59:09.700 | you actually cut the opex and you cut the salaries and you cut

00:59:12.180 | the headcount, but you have to find new ways to pay people

00:59:15.860 | because you've been paying them with stock in the past, how do

00:59:18.100 | you kind of bridge that gap? And I think that's probably a little

00:59:19.980 | bit of the balance and the art of what these guys do well,

00:59:22.460 | Jamal, if I may, can you explain to the audience what a private

00:59:26.660 | equity firms expectation is in terms of return when they buy a

00:59:30.620 | company like this, and then sacks, I saw your tweet that you

00:59:32.900 | want to feature and you'll go next.

00:59:34.260 | Well, I think it's changed over time. And this is what's so

00:59:38.540 | powerful about the private equity industry. Look, you have

00:59:42.340 | to think about what their incentive is, because it kind of

00:59:45.420 | guides the yes. Early on, they were very much like venture

00:59:49.700 | capitalists, they were out in the, you know, edges of risk

00:59:53.580 | taking, doing all kinds of very difficult, gnarly deals. So if

00:59:58.660 | you look back in the history of private equity, you know, these

01:00:01.300 | huge, crazy deals like RGR Nabisco, or TWA Airlines were

01:00:05.220 | the first of the industry, and they weeped enormous returns,

01:00:10.780 | but there was a lot of risk, and it required very heavy handed

01:00:14.060 | management. Oftentimes, what that meant was firing a lot of

01:00:17.500 | people. Over time, private equity has gotten

01:00:20.820 | institutionalized, and they don't generally feature

01:00:27.140 | themselves as a place to get the best necessarily returns, but

01:00:30.540 | they are places where you can put enormous amounts of money,

01:00:34.220 | where the likelihood of loss is extremely zero, and you generate

01:00:40.260 | very good rates of return. Now, again, this depends on whether

01:00:44.820 | you want to look at IRR, or DPI, right? So a lot of people will

01:00:49.460 | market IRR, which, you know, I think is kind of like a

01:00:53.860 | gameable metric. But you know, those IRRs can be 20-25%. If you

01:00:58.980 | look at DPI, which is really how much cash you get back, you

01:01:02.220 | know, private equity firms can generate one and a half to 2x of

01:01:05.460 | the money you give them. But they do it consistently, and

01:01:08.860 | they very rarely lose money. So all of that is important into

01:01:13.220 | understanding what's going to happen in this cycle. These

01:01:16.260 | folks are going to buy a ton of these private software

01:01:19.900 | companies. I think that they are going to fire lots of people. I

01:01:25.180 | think they are going to make these companies run hyper

01:01:27.620 | efficiently, and they will make sure that they generate that 1.2

01:01:32.900 | to 1.7x that has been historical. Very rarely will

01:01:36.780 | they lose money in these things. By the way, that's going to mean

01:01:40.580 | that a lot of these other companies will have to reset

01:01:42.580 | valuation. So you saw yesterday, checkout.com went from a $40

01:01:46.620 | billion valuation down to 11. You're seeing some companies

01:01:51.140 | only go down 10 or 15%. But it's a process, isn't it, Shamath?

01:01:55.620 | Isn't this just like what happens in real estate where

01:01:57.980 | beginning of this process? Yes, because in real estate, my

01:02:00.780 | understanding having lived through these boomer cycles is

01:02:03.060 | the person living in the home still believes their home is

01:02:06.100 | worth, you know, this incredibly valuation, and then the people

01:02:08.860 | who want to buy it are like, that doesn't match reality. And

01:02:12.060 | then the real estate brokers go back and forth trying to get

01:02:14.820 | people to, you know, go through this messy middle and come to

01:02:18.100 | true price discovery a private company, it's hard to get true

01:02:20.860 | price discovery until they're on the brink of insolvency. We

01:02:23.780 | don't have the money.

01:02:24.420 | We just got some data on that actually, can we bring this

01:02:27.340 | Cooley data? Yeah, so Cooley looked at a law firm in Silicon

01:02:33.020 | Valley. Yeah, they're a prominent Silicon Valley law

01:02:35.260 | firm, they looked at 1000 deals over the last three quarters of

01:02:37.900 | this year. And what they saw is that you're the later the stage,

01:02:42.660 | the bigger the valuation correction. So series D rounds

01:02:45.220 | went from three and a half billion to 527 million. That's

01:02:48.380 | an one 7% Oh, yeah, that's an 85% drop. Series C went from

01:02:53.260 | 502 million 230 million to 74% drop. Series B went from 164 to

01:02:59.500 | 90. That's a 45% drop. And then series A went from 58 to 45.

01:03:04.220 | That's only a 22% drop, there's just less room to compress

01:03:07.980 | there. But the point is that series B roughly a 50% drop

01:03:12.420 | series C roughly a three quarters drop, and series D,

01:03:17.180 | roughly a 85%. Yeah, one seventh drop. So I think founders right

01:03:23.580 | now are they're just like a little bit delusional about

01:03:26.540 | this money they raised last year, they're still way too

01:03:29.620 | anchored on last year's valuation. And if only they

01:03:32.780 | would think in terms of this capital they raised last year,

01:03:36.060 | in terms of, of its real dilution in terms of what the

01:03:40.860 | company is worth now, I think they'd be treating it more more

01:03:43.780 | precious. So for example, sex, for example, hold on, if you

01:03:47.420 | like, they won the lottery, and they don't want to they don't

01:03:49.900 | realize they won the lottery. I had this conversation with the

01:03:51.860 | founder, this is the only money they're ever going to see is the

01:03:54.700 | bottom line. And they're spending like they're going to

01:03:56.460 | win the lottery every year. So for example, let's say you take

01:03:58.980 | a company, yeah, let's say you take a company that raised 200

01:04:02.900 | million last year at 2 billion. So it was 10% dilution. So in

01:04:06.300 | their heads, they're thinking, Oh, well, this isn't that

01:04:08.140 | expensive, like 10% dilutions around the era, but really,

01:04:11.900 | probably the company is worth maybe 400 million now, right?

01:04:15.740 | Because it's gone down 80%. Yes, 200 million of your 400 million

01:04:19.860 | is half the value of the company. Yes. And you're

01:04:22.140 | squandering it, you're squandering it at a rate of 100

01:04:24.660 | million a year. So you're basically burning up 25% of the

01:04:28.060 | value of your company this year, and the next year. And then by

01:04:30.620 | the way, you're going to be in crisis after that, because

01:04:33.140 | you're probably like a lottery winner buying like a giant

01:04:35.540 | superyacht.

01:04:36.220 | I had an observation that a lot of the investors that sit on the

01:04:39.380 | boards of these companies. They have an incentive to not see

01:04:45.060 | those valuations come down too quickly, do they not. And so

01:04:48.900 | there is this sort of like, interest in, hey, I don't want

01:04:52.820 | you to have to go reprice the company or do a down round

01:04:55.180 | because then my portfolio gets written down. And then I'm in

01:04:57.900 | the middle, everyone's always in the middle of a fundraising

01:04:59.780 | cycle with LPS. And then I'm going to have a tough

01:05:02.060 | conversation with my LP is about my, my value. So do you not see

01:05:05.860 | VCs and investors playing an active role in trying to keep

01:05:10.620 | the valuations propped up to some extent, particularly where

01:05:13.340 | they have big markups 100% by extending bridge rounds or doing

01:05:17.340 | other sorts of, you know,

01:05:19.300 | look, nobody, nobody likes to go through a down round. And that

01:05:23.460 | includes founders and existing investors in the company. That

01:05:26.340 | being said, we're not talking here about new financing

01:05:29.420 | conversations we're talking about is advice that is

01:05:33.420 | happening in board meetings. And, you know, maybe other VCs

01:05:36.940 | aren't pushing as hard as we are. But you the advice I'm

01:05:39.500 | giving in board meetings is what I'm telling you publicly today,

01:05:42.740 | which is, this is the last money you may be able to raise on

01:05:45.780 | attractive terms, if at all, you need to treat it much more

01:05:48.900 | preciously, the world has fundamentally changed. And by

01:05:51.780 | the way, we haven't even gotten into what's coming the demand

01:05:54.940 | contraction that's coming next year.

01:05:57.700 | Explain what demand contract contraction is for the audience,

01:06:00.140 | please. Thank you.

01:06:00.620 | Okay, look, there's going to be three major sources of slowdown

01:06:04.260 | for software companies next year. Number one, new business

01:06:08.020 | is going to dry up companies are just going to be spending a lot

01:06:11.420 | less money next year, because they're all cutting costs. So

01:06:14.500 | you should expect your new business to be roughly 50% of

01:06:18.060 | what it was. Next year, it'll be 50% of what it was last year.

01:06:22.060 | That's my rule of thumb. For most companies, new business

01:06:24.900 | down 50%. Number two churn is going to be higher. We haven't

01:06:28.260 | seen that much logo churn yet. But next year, a lot of

01:06:31.620 | companies are going to start going out of business. And it's

01:06:34.260 | going to happen over the next two years. So you're simply

01:06:36.580 | going to see logo churn rates, say among small businesses go

01:06:40.220 | from like a historical norm of 15% to maybe 25 or 30.

01:06:44.780 | It's not the words your customer, the logo

01:06:47.980 | customer simply doesn't exist. Yes, that's what I'm going to go

01:06:51.380 | means. Yes, the actual entity. Yes, logo churn means the

01:06:54.820 | entity doesn't exist, then you've got seat contraction,

01:06:58.300 | which is these companies are not hiring as fast. In fact, they're

01:07:01.900 | doing layoffs. So they're simply not going to buy as many seats

01:07:05.260 | of your software as you need to in the past. For the last

01:07:07.940 | decade, we've had a tailwind, an enormous tailwind for software

01:07:11.100 | companies of seed expansion, which is every year your

01:07:14.180 | existing customers would buy more seats of your product for

01:07:17.060 | their new employees. Now they're actually going to have fewer

01:07:20.180 | employees or maybe headcount freezes. So they're actually

01:07:22.820 | buying fewer seats.

01:07:24.180 | By the way, if you if you take all those three things, the deal

01:07:27.500 | of the century was figma selling to Adobe for 20. Because if you

01:07:32.460 | take those three things, I mean, oh my god, they just absolutely

01:07:37.020 | top tick before any of this stuff was no. So today, Adobe

01:07:41.020 | could probably buy this thing for like 7 billion, 20 billion.

01:07:45.580 | So does that mean they try to do a breakup thing get out of the

01:07:48.300 | deal? I don't know. But if I was if I was figma, I try to close

01:07:52.340 | this thing ASAP and get that money. Yeah, yeah.

01:07:55.100 | Yeah, you're right about that. And by the way, what I'm seeing

01:07:57.780 | from founders is that they still want to grow 100% plus over the

01:08:02.940 | next year. The problem is that the headwinds are going to be

01:08:06.060 | intense. So if you're flying a plane, and the headwinds are

01:08:10.180 | extremely intense, and you try to maintain your speed, you're

01:08:13.020 | going to burn an enormous amount of fuel, you're going to be

01:08:15.140 | incredibly inefficient. It's better to basically just

01:08:18.900 | moderate your speed. Let the headwinds basically pass, we're

01:08:22.980 | gonna have major economic headwinds for the next four to

01:08:25.540 | six quarters, call it year and a half. It's okay to have a slower

01:08:29.460 | growth rate, preserve your cash, don't burn up your fuel bunker

01:08:32.820 | down. So what we're trying to do is we're trying to give

01:08:36.220 | permission to our founders to grow at a slower rate because

01:08:39.620 | they feel this enormous pressure from their VCs to grow at at at

01:08:43.700 | insane rates. Can I build on this? I think freeberg said it

01:08:46.260 | very well, the scan in venture capital is demonstrated in the

01:08:49.460 | following chart. This is using Cambridge and our friend Brad

01:08:52.820 | Gerstner helped put this together. So what is this? This

01:08:55.980 | goes back all the way to 1997. And the gray bar is what venture

01:09:02.740 | capitalists share with their limited partners as to how well

01:09:08.340 | they are doing what is called quartile of venture capital. And

01:09:11.340 | this is the top 25%. Okay, so this is this is a venture

01:09:14.620 | capitalist. And you know, our returns have been consistently

01:09:17.820 | top quartile. So instead of cherry picking anybody else,

01:09:20.540 | I'll just use us but it could be Sequoia, benchmark, you name it,

01:09:23.860 | we will go back we're in their launch, you will go back to

01:09:26.520 | folks craft, we'll go back to folks and say, Hey, guys, the

01:09:29.580 | total value of our portfolio is three times your money in 1997

01:09:34.140 | is vintage. Okay, it was four times your money in the 2010

01:09:39.300 | vintage feels really good. But again, the job of the venture

01:09:42.780 | capitalist is to convert the gray bar into the purple bar.

01:09:49.940 | And historically, there's been a decay. So for every dollar of

01:09:55.260 | gray bar that you show, you typically only get 73 cents

01:09:58.260 | actually returned to people. Okay.

01:10:00.340 | The valuations that you get when you sell your company or goes

01:10:06.300 | public, end up being 73% of what you marked at the peak what you

01:10:10.740 | said they were exactly right.

01:10:11.740 | Exactly right. And the actual value of this purple bar going

01:10:17.300 | back, you know, 30 years is 1.7 x. So just to put numerical

01:10:23.340 | numbers on this, if you were a venture capitalist, you would

01:10:26.740 | raise $100 fund at the peak, you would actually show that that

01:10:32.220 | $100 became 200 and about $28. But when when push came to shove,

01:10:38.540 | and when it was all said and done, you would return $170

01:10:42.260 | back to your investors. That's the rough equation. So what's

01:10:46.340 | the problem? Well, the problem as you can see in this chart is

01:10:49.860 | right around 2015 which is all of a sudden, you know, what we've

01:10:55.780 | started to see are these continually elevated gray bars.

01:11:01.540 | Yes, this stuff is worth seven times six times five times. But

01:11:06.780 | we have not seen the purple bars catch up. Now some people will

01:11:10.380 | say, Well, yeah, but you have to give it time. And, you know,

01:11:13.060 | this is it has to make other reasons look at. And all you

01:11:16.820 | need to do is do what's called a regression. And you need to

01:11:20.420 | regress these things to the mean and make the following

01:11:23.100 | assumption. Assume for a second that this time is not different.

01:11:28.740 | Assume that these historical averages 2.2 x 1.7 x holds.

01:11:33.860 | Well, that's what the the black line here shows you can

01:11:37.820 | calculate the area above the curve as the value at risk,

01:11:42.940 | right, the amount of money we will destroy, because of all

01:11:46.460 | these shenanigans that free bird just talked about propping up

01:11:49.340 | marks, not willing to look at actual market clearing prices.

01:11:52.940 | Well, if you do the math, the sum of the area above this black

01:11:57.500 | line is almost a trillion dollars around the world. And it

01:12:01.180 | is about $600 billion for us venture capitalists. This is the

01:12:07.020 | dynamic that the private equity industry is going to prey on. So

01:12:10.340 | if you saw Toma Bravo just closed a $32 billion round, you

01:12:13.660 | know, Vista is raising a $20 billion round, everybody's

01:12:17.180 | stepping into tech, they are going to destroy those gray bars.

01:12:20.540 | You describe that as bottom feeding? No, no, they are. They

01:12:24.500 | are the rational actor. Yeah. Okay. Who is finding the true

01:12:27.580 | market? I think the private equity industry is unbelievably

01:12:32.660 | precise, and talented in being dispassionate and telling us

01:12:37.340 | what these things are cut through.

01:12:38.660 | They're logical. No, no, it's not.

01:12:40.380 | They're just not shooting for the private equity industry is

01:12:43.540 | going to be created by profligate founders. And look,

01:12:46.900 | you could blame VCs for the high marks last year as well. They

01:12:50.260 | were profligate too. But look, if you're a founder, if you

01:12:54.100 | don't start acting in a more capital efficient way and

01:12:56.820 | preserve your cash, your company is ultimately gonna be owned by

01:12:59.820 | a private equity firm, and they're gonna make all the

01:13:01.580 | money. Well, here's because because because when you sell to

01:13:04.900 | them at a low price, all you're gonna end up doing is paying

01:13:07.740 | back the liquidation preference. And then that private equity

01:13:11.140 | firm that was willing to do or less, but that private equity

01:13:14.580 | firm will be willing to do what you were not willing to do,

01:13:17.540 | which was simply act, but cut your burn, cut your costs and

01:13:21.180 | act in a more capital efficient way. And they will end up making

01:13:23.660 | all the upside for your decade of hard work. Because you got a

01:13:27.380 | basically addicted to venture capital and the high valuations

01:13:30.780 | and refuse to, again, adjust to the regime.

01:13:34.220 | I'll give you an alternative, I'll give you an alternative.

01:13:37.060 | The alternative is that the majority of acquisitions made by

01:13:40.300 | private equity firms are not actually pure acquisitions,

01:13:43.420 | they're bolt on acquisitions, meaning that these are companies

01:13:46.300 | that are added to existing platforms that they own. So this

01:13:49.260 | acquisition they're doing of Coupa, I think it's very likely

01:13:52.100 | over the next couple of years, you will see like the playbook

01:13:54.660 | and private equity includes not just cost cutting, but also

01:13:58.220 | synergy building. And they typically do bolt ons and add

01:14:01.340 | ons. And this happens across all private equity platform deals of

01:14:04.580 | new products and services that can be sold through the existing

01:14:07.340 | sales channel, the existing customer base, and as an add on

01:14:11.180 | to the existing service or product that's already offered.

01:14:13.580 | So one of the feet, one of the things that I think you may see

01:14:16.460 | in Silicon Valley, over the next couple of years is a

01:14:19.020 | rationalization away from funding feature companies, and

01:14:22.740 | thinking much more carefully about what can be true standalone

01:14:25.220 | product companies. Sure. And many of these companies that

01:14:27.420 | have raised a ton of capital, and have gotten crazy valuations,

01:14:31.500 | at the end of the day, they're more likely better equipped to

01:14:34.460 | be a feature of another platform than they are to be a standalone

01:14:37.780 | platform company of their own. And that's where the majority of

01:14:40.420 | these acquisitions will likely end up going. Yeah, in the

01:14:44.060 | private equity landscape, and they will be vacuumed up and

01:14:46.980 | attached to existing platforms that these private equity guys

01:14:49.540 | are building out. And by the way, just look as an example of

01:14:52.140 | what Oracle did over the years, what Salesforce did over the

01:14:54.660 | years, what Google did so many of these companies bolt on

01:14:57.460 | acquisitions by bolt on acquisitions by building a

01:15:00.100 | channel, building a platform, and then adding on top of that.

01:15:03.780 | And I think that a lot of these guys are going to try and

01:15:05.540 | mimic two critical points. Number one, what about the

01:15:08.300 | bottom 75% of VCs? Oh, if you show that chart, just for one

01:15:12.180 | more second. I just want to remind everybody, that is the

01:15:15.700 | absolute cream of the crop VCs. The best. These are folks. I

01:15:20.220 | mean, again, I'll just say us Sequoia benchmark, we've

01:15:23.140 | consistently been crap. Thank you launch craft. These are

01:15:25.860 | these are top chefs. Return Street. Thank the Lord. What

01:15:28.660 | about the bottom 75%? Not gonna be able to raise funds, man.

01:15:31.260 | It's over a lot of these people who raise first time funds in

01:15:33.860 | the last three or four years. So it's also the company's

01:15:36.220 | own. Because like, like, it's like the today is the now is the

01:15:41.180 | moment for the sober founder and the sober venture capitalist to

01:15:45.060 | sit and say, what is the real valuation? What do we need to

01:15:48.500 | do to make sure that this company has a chance because

01:15:50.380 | what SAC said is so true. Otherwise, all these profit

01:15:54.220 | dollars will be made by the private equity.

01:15:56.660 | In order to win today, you're going to have to grind, you're

01:16:00.100 | going to have to work 5060 hours a week, you're going to have to

01:16:03.180 | be absolutely embrace the age of austerity. And you're gonna have

01:16:06.780 | to focus on your customer, your product and your bottom line.

01:16:10.140 | The age of excess is over. If you're not working 5060 70 hours

01:16:14.500 | a week, you're not going to cut it in Silicon Valley. Also key

01:16:17.500 | second point, profligate, extravagant or wasteful in the

01:16:21.300 | use of resources just so we get the word of the day from David

01:16:24.020 | Sachs. That's David Sachs is word of the day after a very

01:16:26.980 | powerful bull. This is this is that one crazy. You see the

01:16:30.740 | trauma boy for winter, we will, we will went viral. This is I

01:16:37.020 | think, Elon's biggest, non obvious impact in this moment,

01:16:40.900 | JTOW, here's your one answer to your question about what

01:16:43.860 | happens to the the the bottom 75% of venture firms, it's

01:16:48.860 | equivalent to what happens with the, you know, kind of, this is

01:16:52.380 | the bottom of the top, the slide that I just shared, it's the one

01:16:55.060 | we looked at a few weeks ago. And I keep referring to it

01:16:57.740 | because it's just such a staggering like demonstration of

01:17:01.660 | what people call the power law, which is how you know, kind of

01:17:04.660 | excess returns accumulate to minority of investments. So just

01:17:08.340 | a few investments make up the bulk of value that the you know,

01:17:12.500 | market cap of 43% of companies that have gone public since

01:17:18.700 | 2020 is $750 billion. The market cap of three, the other 300 is

01:17:25.380 | only $26 billion. And the cash that went in to the $750 billion

01:17:30.500 | is 136. And the cash that went into the 26 is 107. And so the

01:17:36.380 | cash that went in to generate that 26 billion 107, that's your

01:17:40.460 | bottom 50%. And the top 50% put in 136 to make 750. And I think

01:17:46.460 | it gets even narrower as you move further up to that top

01:17:48.780 | quartile. So you know, it's just I can tell you what LPS are

01:17:52.420 | saying, because I'm hard business.

01:17:55.020 | This is the companies that went public. So this is also of the

01:17:57.900 | top company of the top funds and the top companies that were

01:18:01.140 | actually able to IPO. And so it highlights how much of a power

01:18:04.980 | law actually plays through. And so the majority of these

01:18:07.740 | companies as in Chamath, even in your chart, you show the top

01:18:10.940 | quartile, the bottom 75%, or the bottom 50%. I've looked at this

01:18:15.740 | data as well, of those various vintages are below 1.0, they

01:18:19.420 | lose money for their LPS. Oh, consistently. And it's a cycle.

01:18:23.500 | And so what ends up happening is the next generation comes

01:18:25.300 | through, and LPS, they make a portfolio of bets. And they hope

01:18:29.140 | that they make enough bets in the right VCs that their

01:18:32.180 | portfolio generates greater than you know, market returns greater

01:18:34.940 | than call it 15 20% target 15% target. But they're going to

01:18:39.300 | expect that you're not I have an LP report. I'm out there raising

01:18:43.500 | launch fund for right now. And I moved from like the accredited

01:18:46.060 | the individual investors say that Oh, yeah, because you're

01:18:48.100 | yeah, I'm on 506. Yeah, so I'm publicly raising it. And I've

01:18:51.820 | moved on from individual investors $45 million in commits

01:18:55.620 | after five webinars. Amazing. Now I'm talking to no, it was

01:18:59.500 | amazing. It's just 506. He is going to change the entire

01:19:02.100 | industry letting the you know, the masses have some access to

01:19:06.180 | this capital. And this opportunity accredited and QB is

01:19:09.260 | going to change the world, I believe.

01:19:10.540 | Do you have to do deal with everyone? One of them is easy to

01:19:13.860 | administer.

01:19:14.500 | It's incredibly complex, because you have a large number of

01:19:17.700 | people and they all want to talk to me. So I did webinars, five

01:19:20.180 | webinars, and it resulted in 100 commits, hundreds of commits

01:19:23.700 | for $45 million.

01:19:24.380 | You'll be able to get all those capital commitments drawn down

01:19:27.980 | when you need to, like you have to go ping a couple 100 people

01:19:30.540 | and get them all wire money to you.

01:19:31.580 | We need to have more operations people and we only do for we

01:19:35.260 | let them one thing. One thing you may want to do is like for

01:19:38.340 | these smaller slugs is you can pre wire you can set up an escrow

01:19:41.940 | account where you pre wire 100% of the capital. Yes. And then

01:19:44.660 | you also don't have to you take it down when you're going to

01:19:46.900 | deploy it. So you keep your IRR correct. So we're actually

01:19:49.380 | looking into those solutions. I'll talk to you offline. But I

01:19:51.860 | just did my first two meetings with endowments, etc, fund to

01:19:54.620 | funds. The entire discussions right now are around what is

01:19:59.700 | your secondary strategy? How are you getting in earlier, not

01:20:03.820 | later? And how are you building a larger position? It is an even

01:20:08.300 | like some of the QP is where sophisticated in our you know,

01:20:10.700 | are in over 10 venture funds, the entire discussion governance

01:20:14.540 | of these companies. Are you taking board seats or not? How

01:20:17.940 | early are you getting in and building a larger position over

01:20:20.420 | 10%? And what is your secondary strategy? When are you going to

01:20:24.500 | start taking some chips off the table? So the and I got to say,

01:20:27.580 | if you're an LP, who didn't sell into the upmarket at all, and

01:20:31.700 | you're on your first fund, you know, and you had all these

01:20:34.060 | great marks, and they're getting the coming crashing down,

01:20:36.340 | they're not going to deal with you. They just have too many

01:20:38.980 | options.

01:20:39.340 | I don't think I don't think they've they've started to come

01:20:42.300 | down yet. I don't think we know what the top quartiles really

01:20:45.740 | going to look like over these last few years. I think that's

01:20:48.220 | going to take four or five years to really sort out. Of course.

01:20:50.820 | Yeah. So I think

01:20:52.380 | explain why Chamath just so people understand. Yeah, I

01:20:54.620 | understand.

01:20:54.860 | Well, I think I think that there are lots of valuations that have

01:20:59.900 | supported huge TV PIs. These, you know, paper gains that have

01:21:06.900 | allowed venture funds to raise enormous amounts of incremental

01:21:11.020 | capital and new funds. And so they are going to try to wait as

01:21:16.500 | long as possible before they're held accountable for that. And

01:21:19.740 | the best way to do that is to not change the valuation. And so

01:21:23.300 | it will happen slowly, it'll be a trickle of these things. And I

01:21:28.620 | think that takes probably four or five years for it to really

01:21:31.580 | sort itself out. But in the meantime, companies will still

01:21:34.660 | need to get financed, companies will still need to get built.

01:21:38.220 | That's why I think like the public markets, I think what

01:21:41.060 | SAC says is true. Giving us a signal of what these true market

01:21:44.980 | clearing prices are, will eventually slip into these, you

01:21:48.380 | know, series D or E companies, because a venture capitalist who

01:21:51.500 | has now taken some big write downs in one part of their

01:21:55.060 | portfolio, I suspect will now be very open to selling to private

01:21:58.660 | equity for another part of their portfolio so that they can

01:22:01.180 | return capital.

01:22:01.820 | Totally. Totally agree. Yeah, it's gonna be rough out there.

01:22:05.500 | You guys watch White Lotus.

01:22:07.700 | Yeah, I just started season one. I'm third episode in. Okay,

01:22:12.180 | what a treat. We won't say anything. But how great was

01:22:14.660 | season two?

01:22:15.620 | Oh, the rap was awesome. It's just incredible.

01:22:18.980 | The last two episodes were extraordinary.

01:22:21.180 | Just finished watching all of Handmaid's Tale, which I will

01:22:26.180 | tell you is, that is a fucking stressful show. It's like, it's

01:22:31.020 | like you're putting in work when you're done those episodes.

01:22:33.500 | You're like, oh, emotional labor. You know, when they said

01:22:36.420 | this emotional labor, watching that show is like, it could

01:22:39.740 | could, it could not be more sadistic and insane. Oh, my God,

01:22:43.220 | it is brutal. But you can't look away. Incredibly well done.

01:22:47.460 | Alright, listen, this has been an amazing episode. And this is

01:22:52.740 | news for the other besties. Friedberg and I have been

01:22:56.140 | secretly collaborating. Now we have to a plan that we're

01:23:01.780 | working on a joint plan for all in summit 2023. Because we are

01:23:05.620 | both helping each other out.

01:23:06.980 | I'm ready to tip guys.

01:23:09.540 | I love it. The tip. I know. That's it. We don't need to

01:23:14.900 | sacks. I'm a permanent No. That's all that's fine. We know

01:23:17.980 | that.

01:23:18.220 | I love that I have sacks as my anchor on this one. I can always

01:23:21.740 | float back that way.

01:23:22.700 | But Friedberg and I

01:23:25.020 | I'm like,

01:23:25.700 | the root of all evil.

01:23:28.460 | Totally in this case, but power and influence is something that

01:23:33.220 | you that's free bird celebrity. Friedberg had so much of a good

01:23:37.380 | time at all in summit 2022. That his hatred of my producer fee is

01:23:42.780 | less than his joy from the event. And we are collaborating

01:23:46.980 | on super super gut. I have made up for my producer's fee by

01:23:52.140 | using super gut and becoming a big proponent.

01:23:55.780 | Announcing the debate. I've used the promo code.

01:23:57.620 | Paid you for that. That's the quip. Oh, yes. Yes. You know,

01:24:01.700 | this is no conflict. No interest to go along with doing the no

01:24:04.820 | conflict. No interest. That's what's going on. bars. Amazing.

01:24:08.340 | So I use the double mocha.

01:24:10.220 | The only the only person that you haven't taken money from is

01:24:13.260 | SPF. I mean, pretty much you're

01:24:15.740 | by the way, can I point out on the most loathsome person in

01:24:21.340 | tech? Bracket?

01:24:23.420 | We go through it.

01:24:24.460 | Do not name the company. Do not name the podcast.

01:24:27.900 | I'm eliminated already in the first round.

01:24:29.780 | This is

01:24:30.820 | and you win. No, I thought you won. No, he lost. He was

01:24:34.660 | the bracket. Do not mention the podcast.

01:24:38.060 | Jesse get on your chest. Not I only want the bracket. Do not

01:24:43.780 | mention the podcast. We're not giving them any. Just black out

01:24:46.780 | that in post. I want you to black out easy. I don't want to

01:24:50.900 | give these guys any credit. So here we go. The worst person in

01:24:53.820 | tech.

01:24:54.300 | Martha and sax we would say it's a B podcast. That's run by

01:25:00.180 | literal socialist. Well, look, Chamath got a very tough draw.

01:25:03.180 | I mean, of course, I was to SPF.

01:25:04.940 | That's ridiculous.

01:25:07.260 | Of the

01:25:08.980 | group went up against the Warriors with KD. It is no way

01:25:11.700 | to win tough. That's a

01:25:12.580 | no shot. You guys should have

01:25:14.180 | what about sex? Easy draw sacks versus in the most hated person

01:25:20.700 | in 10 by 1%

01:25:21.940 | that's bullshit. Andy Jassy is I don't

01:25:24.300 | Andy Jassy is a complete gentleman. Andy Jassy is

01:25:27.900 | delightful. I gotta be honest with you.

01:25:30.140 | Human compared to

01:25:31.860 | him. Just in spice.

01:25:34.220 | That is I want to recount. No, I wanted to win. Saks. I want to

01:25:38.340 | recap. This is election interference. Union busting.

01:25:41.140 | This is election interference. I get something you're a

01:25:43.660 | specialist in, I guess is worse to be a union busting Amazon CEO

01:25:48.380 | than a reactionary conservative investor.

01:25:50.380 | This is ridiculous. I just want to point out that the biggest

01:25:56.620 | travesty here is that I did not make the list. There are and you

01:26:01.620 | know what these guys are trolling me.

01:26:03.340 | Guys, shout out to producer Nick who just retreated.

01:26:07.300 | With basically you basically pick the what is it the 30 most

01:26:12.820 | relatively well known people in tech. That's what tilts Jake

01:26:15.300 | Caldwell. This is terrible. Worst person in tech. I don't

01:26:17.700 | make the list. I'm going to double down

01:26:19.740 | this year constantly kowtowing to the media. You're you're

01:26:22.700 | right. You're right. I need to be horrible.

01:26:25.820 | Stop with that. I need to be a worse human like you Saks. I'm

01:26:29.420 | going to try my best this year to work against humanity and

01:26:32.820 | society and be more loathsome than you. I'm really going to

01:26:35.940 | redouble my efforts. Obviously, I can't catch up with you buy

01:26:39.060 | into all their phony. I'm too kind. I got a big heart. I care.

01:26:42.220 | I have empathy into all their phony. I know my empathy. But

01:26:45.100 | here's the problem. These guys left me off on purpose. If you

01:26:48.740 | want to pull up the replies between Andreessen and Bill

01:26:51.340 | Gates. Oh, Andreessen. That's a lock. That's Andreessen. Of

01:26:55.820 | course. Andreessen. A 16 co founder and man of terrible.

01:27:00.620 | Is a world class shit poster. Bill Gates is hiding somewhere

01:27:06.460 | nobody Bill Gates is doesn't tweet. Mark Andreessen blocks

01:27:10.540 | unblocks he shitposts with the best of them. He's up there. I

01:27:14.780 | mean, that guy's a dark meme Lord. Any other I mean, I

01:27:19.660 | really I really sympathize with each month that you got your ass

01:27:22.380 | handed to you there. That's just that's like going up against

01:27:25.060 | the dream team. Hold on, hold on. Slow down, bro. You're not

01:27:27.620 | even letting us read these things. All right. Give me a

01:27:29.260 | joke. Twitter former idiot CEO versus the Airbnb CEO making

01:27:34.820 | Oh my god, that's so well written. Brian. Hold on. This

01:27:43.540 | weekend. Guy, guy who really tried to make us believe web

01:27:47.260 | three was going to happen versus world coin and open of course,

01:27:50.540 | critics and wins much more loathsome than Sam Altman. All

01:27:54.140 | right, listen, free bird, you didn't even come. I want to

01:27:58.060 | just congratulate free bird on an amazing the best science

01:28:03.340 | corner ever. An amazing product is super gut that has helped me

01:28:06.940 | lose weight. I feel great. And for you know, recovering from

01:28:12.140 | whatever illness you had. All right, everybody. I love you

01:28:14.260 | besties. Shout out to David Sachs. Love you guys. And we'll

01:28:19.020 | see you all next time on the all in podcast. Love you besties.

01:28:22.340 | Love you guys. Bye

01:28:23.580 | Let your winners ride

01:28:26.820 | rain man David

01:28:29.380 | we open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

01:28:36.420 | Love you.

01:28:38.100 | Can we

01:28:38.700 | besties are

01:28:46.380 | dog taking a

01:28:49.660 | should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy

01:28:58.740 | because they're all just like this like sexual tension that

01:29:01.580 | they just need to release

01:29:04.020 | what you're about to be

01:29:08.540 | good. We need to get Merck is our

01:29:11.460 | dog.

01:29:11.980 | Oh, man.

01:29:20.580 | you

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