E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

00:00:00.000 | So I was not going to bring this up.

00:00:01.800 | Zach said, bring it up.

00:00:02.880 | No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:00:04.980 | You're already creating mischaracterizations.

00:00:07.320 | You said you want to bring it up.

00:00:08.780 | I'm like, sure.

00:00:09.260 | I don't, I'm not going to veto it.

00:00:10.280 | Go for it.

00:00:10.840 | I said, well, we have to bring on my COVID.

00:00:13.160 | Obviously I'm the second bestie to get COVID.

00:00:14.960 | And I told you offline without the other two besties,

00:00:19.280 | I will just say I got it at a social function, period.

00:00:22.180 | End of story.

00:00:22.740 | You said it's okay to talk about.

00:00:24.880 | Yeah.

00:00:25.780 | It's not like I wanted to bring it up.

00:00:27.100 | You want to bring it up and I'm allowing it because I,

00:00:29.980 | I'm fine with it.

00:00:30.740 | So go for it.

00:00:31.360 | We all got something at Saks' event.

00:00:33.120 | You got COVID.

00:00:33.980 | I got chlamydia.

00:00:35.160 | It's all fine.

00:00:36.020 | Oh, you guys went to the downstairs rooms?

00:00:39.620 | I went downstairs.

00:00:41.460 | I skipped the basement level.

00:00:42.920 | God damn it.

00:00:44.340 | Chamath again.

00:00:46.280 | You promised.

00:00:47.760 | It was a great party.

00:00:49.420 | Let's hear Jason's accusation.

00:00:51.520 | I've been hearing about it all week in the chat.

00:00:52.940 | There's no accusation.

00:00:53.180 | It was a great party.

00:00:54.280 | No, you've been saying it was a GOP super spreader.

00:00:57.160 | You took it with COVID.

00:00:57.920 | Jason, you were angry.

00:00:59.240 | You were angry.

00:00:59.960 | And you were, yeah, you were really mad at Saks

00:01:02.680 | because you thought he actually gave you COVID

00:01:04.840 | even though Saks had people test.

00:01:07.080 | Every single person tested on the way in.

00:01:09.260 | Except you, J-Cal.

00:01:10.300 | J-Cal, you walked around the velvet room.

00:01:12.260 | I have.

00:01:12.680 | And you said, guess what?

00:01:13.840 | I'm a bestie.

00:01:14.540 | I don't have to test.

00:01:15.320 | And you walk right in that party.

00:01:16.540 | And guess what?

00:01:17.580 | At the end of the day, there's nothing.

00:01:19.880 | The one person that flouted the rules got it.

00:01:21.920 | Karma's a bitch, J-Cal.

00:01:24.080 | Nothing better personifies poetic justice as what took place.

00:01:27.340 | I do not place blame on anybody for hosting.

00:01:29.940 | You walk around.

00:01:30.280 | You rant at Saks.

00:01:32.080 | You make fun of him.

00:01:33.100 | You poke him.

00:01:33.940 | You poke the bear.

00:01:34.500 | Republican this.

00:01:35.480 | Republican that.

00:01:36.520 | It was a Republican super spreader.

00:01:38.460 | It was a GOP super spreader.

00:01:39.860 | And then you go to his party.

00:01:41.180 | And you run around the velvet rope.

00:01:43.420 | And you don't get your test.

00:01:44.520 | And you go in.

00:01:45.240 | And you walk out with COVID.

00:01:46.540 | Why should I have to test?

00:01:47.500 | That was amazing.

00:01:48.200 | Why should I have to test?

00:01:48.680 | It was really amazing.

00:01:49.460 | I don't wait on lines.

00:01:50.280 | I'm a bestie.

00:01:50.940 | I think he walked out with COVID

00:01:52.280 | because I think he walked in with COVID.

00:01:53.700 | There you go.

00:01:54.340 | He was the only one not to test.

00:01:55.460 | So who brought it in?

00:01:56.320 | I did test.

00:01:57.180 | My daughter and I came to your wonderful party.

00:01:59.560 | It was amazing.

00:02:00.360 | It was delightful.

00:02:01.020 | We tested.

00:02:02.080 | No, you didn't.

00:02:03.600 | When you got to the party.

00:02:05.080 | I 100% tested.

00:02:05.660 | Do not lie.

00:02:06.360 | You told us you didn't.

00:02:06.680 | You told us you didn't.

00:02:07.380 | You were either lying then or you're lying now.

00:02:10.220 | I 100% tested.

00:02:10.240 | You were lying then or you're lying now.

00:02:11.360 | Which one is it?

00:02:11.740 | I was joking then.

00:02:12.860 | I 100% tested with my daughter.

00:02:14.600 | No.

00:02:15.200 | You're telling the truth.

00:02:16.540 | Both was on the line testing with me.

00:02:18.220 | I had the bracelet.

00:02:19.080 | I tested.

00:02:19.640 | 100%.

00:02:20.300 | When I asked you,

00:02:21.060 | when you got into the party and I said,

00:02:22.600 | how'd your COVID test go?

00:02:23.820 | You said, oh, I pulled my bestie card.

00:02:25.660 | I walked around.

00:02:26.500 | I pulled my bestie card.

00:02:27.660 | That's not true.

00:02:29.220 | That's true.

00:02:29.720 | That's what you said.

00:02:30.500 | You guys are getting up on me and making up bullshit now.

00:02:33.760 | No, you said that.

00:02:35.320 | Okay.

00:02:35.980 | I may have made a joke,

00:02:37.420 | but I 100% tested.

00:02:38.860 | Hold on, guys.

00:02:39.320 | And then I find out the reason why Jade wasn't at the party.

00:02:42.320 | She was home taking care of two sick kids.

00:02:44.460 | No, she wasn't.

00:02:45.800 | Yes, she was.

00:02:46.820 | We had one kid.

00:02:47.240 | So how do we know that it wasn't you?

00:02:50.020 | Okay.

00:02:50.700 | We know because.

00:02:51.720 | I know it was you, Fredo.

00:02:52.540 | I know it was you, Fredo.

00:02:54.540 | That she brought it to the party.

00:02:55.320 | You broke my heart.

00:02:56.080 | All right.

00:02:57.900 | Here's what happened.

00:02:58.560 | I went to the party.

00:02:59.700 | I did test.

00:03:02.220 | There was a group of people that got there early,

00:03:05.220 | had tested at another event.

00:03:06.640 | They told me this.

00:03:07.580 | They tested before they got there.

00:03:09.580 | And they told me that they had accidentally brought it with them

00:03:13.200 | because they were the first to have a positive test result.

00:03:18.100 | So in all likelihood, it was that group.

00:03:19.540 | It doesn't matter who brought it because Omicron is going everywhere.

00:03:24.560 | What is it?

00:03:25.460 | Omicron.

00:03:25.860 | Omicron.

00:03:26.060 | Omicron.

00:03:26.560 | It's a character from Transformers.

00:03:28.060 | I don't understand that.

00:03:29.060 | What do you mean they brought it with them?

00:03:30.480 | If they tested negative.

00:03:31.500 | They came from another location.

00:03:33.380 | They tested.

00:03:35.180 | They claim they tested.

00:03:36.500 | Then they were the first to come up that next day with a positive result.

00:03:42.600 | It takes longer than 24 hours to incubate.

00:03:44.940 | You're right.

00:03:45.640 | So that means they must have brought it with them.

00:03:47.720 | They tested on Sunday and had it.

00:03:49.740 | They were at the party Saturday.

00:03:51.000 | But you're saying they tested negative at the door.

00:03:52.000 | They did not test at the door.

00:03:53.720 | They told me.

00:03:54.220 | They did not test at Santa's party?

00:03:54.720 | They told me they tested the day before.

00:03:55.840 | Or two days before.

00:03:56.840 | No, everybody was tested at the door, including staff, including vendors.

00:04:00.540 | There were people who were turned around because they tested positive.

00:04:03.120 | There was a group of ****** who didn't test.

00:04:04.240 | Oh, you're trying to blame it on ******?

00:04:05.740 | No, I specifically have tried to not say the person's name and you're trying to include them in this.

00:04:10.620 | It's going to get bleeped out.

00:04:11.380 | It doesn't matter.

00:04:11.880 | They were all negative at the time of the party.

00:04:14.140 | You hosted a super spreader.

00:04:15.720 | They didn't get it till like five days later.

00:04:17.380 | So they were not the earliest to test.

00:04:18.880 | No, they had it the next day.

00:04:19.380 | You tested positive.

00:04:20.500 | You had symptoms before they did.

00:04:22.120 | Remember the tickle in the throat?

00:04:23.840 | Guys, remember when he said last week he had the flu?

00:04:25.620 | He had the tickle in the throat?

00:04:26.720 | Anyway, thank you for giving me Omicron.

00:04:30.220 | I am now fucking super.

00:04:32.620 | According to all results, I am now Superman.

00:04:34.900 | Have you tested negative now?

00:04:36.280 | Not yet.

00:04:37.100 | I did a test yesterday.

00:04:38.640 | Nine days later, I'm still coming up positive.

00:04:40.720 | I had two days of symptoms.

00:04:42.100 | Not that any of you give a shit, you rat bastards.

00:04:44.220 | You just laugh about my COVID.

00:04:46.940 | Nobody had no point in this conversation.

00:04:49.040 | Did any of you say, how are you feeling?

00:04:50.480 | Was there any chance of death?

00:04:51.980 | Was there any chance?

00:04:54.220 | I was triple vax.

00:04:55.400 | I had done Moderna.

00:04:56.520 | At any point, though, did you feel like, oh, shit, I may have to go to the hospital.

00:04:59.800 | I may need to go on a ventilator.

00:05:00.900 | No, no.

00:05:01.240 | That's too bad.

00:05:01.780 | I felt the tickle in my throat on Tuesday.

00:05:03.520 | You wanted his symptoms.

00:05:04.540 | He coughed three times.

00:05:05.720 | He sneezed twice.

00:05:06.520 | He prematurely ejaculated once.

00:05:08.160 | Those were his symptoms.

00:05:25.180 | ♪ Queen of Kinwild ♪

00:05:28.560 | - This is gonna be our prediction show.

00:05:29.860 | Last week, we did of course, our 2021 Bestie Awards.

00:05:33.680 | How did everybody feel about last week's awards?

00:05:35.660 | I think it was great, I listened to the edit.

00:05:37.020 | - It's done quite well.

00:05:38.260 | - Yeah, I was happy with it.

00:05:39.520 | - It was a fun show.

00:05:40.360 | I think we all got to kind of talk about stuff

00:05:43.420 | we wanted to talk about, and it was pretty dynamic.

00:05:46.540 | I thought it was a good show.

00:05:48.340 | I liked it.

00:05:49.180 | - It was like a greatest hits.

00:05:50.180 | - So we're gonna do some predictions for next year.

00:05:52.180 | - Are you gonna do a drum roll and a little scene as well?

00:05:55.180 | - Yes, okay, here we go.

00:05:56.080 | Here's an opening.

00:05:57.240 | - But it's gotta be like flying into the future,

00:05:59.420 | like going through space.

00:06:00.680 | - Do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do.

00:06:02.860 | - Warp speed.

00:06:03.700 | - Warp speed.

00:06:04.540 | - Flying through the air.

00:06:06.000 | Warp wormhole.

00:06:07.620 | Other side of the universe.

00:06:08.660 | Here we are in 2022.

00:06:09.660 | - Okay.

00:06:10.500 | - Biggest political winner 2022.

00:06:14.260 | What did Tucker Carlson's former writers

00:06:16.680 | tell you to say, "Sax?"

00:06:17.800 | - It never ends, Sax!

00:06:24.980 | - It never ends.

00:06:25.180 | - It's never gonna end.

00:06:27.880 | People were intrigued about what was the second battle about.

00:06:32.220 | That was the big debate.

00:06:33.780 | - Which battle?

00:06:34.620 | - Oh, who knows?

00:06:35.460 | I can't remember the battles.

00:06:36.300 | There's two of those.

00:06:37.140 | - About the beep, beep,

00:06:39.620 | which led to me writing the Google doc about beep, beep.

00:06:42.820 | - Oh, I know what it was.

00:06:43.660 | - Timoth and I deserve a Bestie Award for that.

00:06:46.620 | - Who's your biggest political winner?

00:06:48.020 | - Okay.

00:06:48.860 | - Let's stop with the inside baseball.

00:06:49.940 | - My biggest political winner for 2022,

00:06:52.760 | I predict my man Ron DeSantis.

00:06:54.980 | This will be the big winner.

00:06:56.180 | He's up for reelection in Florida.

00:06:57.560 | He won in 2018 with less than 1% of the vote.

00:07:02.060 | It was a real nail biter.

00:07:03.180 | This time, I think he's gonna cruise

00:07:04.540 | to reelection quite handily

00:07:06.980 | and become the national front runner on the GOP side.

00:07:10.320 | And the reason is because he had the right approach on COVID.

00:07:15.080 | He made the vaccine available.

00:07:16.320 | He made the antibodies available,

00:07:18.300 | but ultimately he treated the population like adults.

00:07:21.520 | He let them make their own decisions.

00:07:23.360 | He kept businesses open, schools open.

00:07:24.780 | And I think the rest of the country is gonna come around

00:07:28.340 | to his point of view

00:07:29.760 | because of the unstoppability of Omicron next year.

00:07:33.280 | And so I think that DeSantis,

00:07:36.100 | who was much maligned and disparaged,

00:07:38.440 | will come out as the big winner a year from now.

00:07:41.020 | - All right, who do you got, Freeberg?

00:07:42.140 | - Vladimir Putin.

00:07:43.360 | I think Putin's gonna benefit from the rising conflict

00:07:47.280 | between the US and China.

00:07:50.440 | The other day, there was a call between Putin

00:07:54.580 | and Xi and they said,

00:07:57.520 | and Putin called Xi his dear friend

00:08:00.700 | and said that relations between the two countries

00:08:02.680 | had reached an unprecedentedly high level.

00:08:05.460 | And I think that his position economically

00:08:07.880 | as a trade partner with China

00:08:09.560 | and as a beneficiary of Chinese economic prosperity

00:08:13.680 | will only grow as tensions between the US and China rise.

00:08:18.520 | I think we're seeing that with some of his cavalier behavior

00:08:22.260 | with the Ukraine right now.

00:08:23.680 | And I think Putin will become a stronger player

00:08:26.860 | on the global stage,

00:08:28.880 | particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO

00:08:32.300 | over the next year.

00:08:33.700 | And he's been a little bit quiet the last few years.

00:08:35.940 | He was kind of, I'd say suppressed with sanctions

00:08:38.920 | and all the other nonsense that's gone on

00:08:41.660 | to keep him at bay,

00:08:42.540 | but he could kind of rise up again in 2022

00:08:45.220 | and he could become a real player

00:08:47.080 | on the geopolitical stage globally

00:08:49.440 | in a more meaningful way than he has

00:08:50.620 | in the last couple of years.

00:08:51.460 | - I mean, you white guys love Putin.

00:08:53.480 | - It's crazy.

00:08:54.380 | The whites love Putin.

00:08:55.360 | - I don't love him.

00:08:56.200 | - God, I hate Putin.

00:08:57.040 | - I mean, if you ranked Russia GDP,

00:08:59.360 | do you know even, do you have any idea

00:09:00.640 | where it even ranks in a global scale?

00:09:01.480 | - Russia GDP is probably-

00:09:02.860 | - I mean, do you guys,

00:09:03.740 | for the amount of time you guys give Putin-

00:09:05.360 | - It's in the 30s.

00:09:06.200 | - Probably eight.

00:09:07.040 | - Probably eight?

00:09:07.880 | - No, no, I think it's in the 20s or 30s.

00:09:08.720 | - Nigeria is like crushes Russia.

00:09:10.720 | Nobody ever talks about Nigeria

00:09:11.980 | has all the same inputs except they're black.

00:09:14.100 | - Yeah, they just don't have 2000 nuclear weapons.

00:09:17.220 | - I mean, as if those were-

00:09:18.060 | - That is the big reason.

00:09:18.900 | I mean, it's a fallen empire for sure,

00:09:20.360 | but they still have 2000 nukes.

00:09:22.140 | - They don't work.

00:09:22.980 | - Landmine, the position,

00:09:24.180 | the energy that it provides to Europe, Eastern Europe.

00:09:26.700 | I mean, Russia is geopolitically pretty significant.

00:09:29.480 | - Insignificant economically,

00:09:31.720 | significant because they have a madman running the country.

00:09:34.640 | - I don't think he's a madman,

00:09:35.620 | but I'm just saying that, you know,

00:09:37.280 | there's a lot of ink that spilled about Russia

00:09:40.340 | and I don't think anybody even takes a step back

00:09:42.240 | and actually looks at-

00:09:43.080 | - All right, who do you got for yours?

00:09:44.140 | It's not Putin, obviously.

00:09:44.980 | - Actually rank in the world, guys.

00:09:47.240 | My worldwide

00:09:50.160 | biggest political winner for 2022 is Xi Jinping.

00:09:53.660 | I think this guy is,

00:09:58.380 | he's firing on all cylinders

00:10:02.080 | and he is basically ascendant.

00:10:05.900 | So 2022 marks the first year

00:10:07.580 | where he's essentially really ruler for life.

00:10:10.280 | And so I don't think we really know what he's capable of

00:10:12.860 | and what he's gonna do.

00:10:13.700 | And so that's just gonna play out.

00:10:15.040 | - You think he's the biggest political winner, really?

00:10:17.160 | - Oh my God, I think it's going to be a,

00:10:19.960 | he's gonna run rough shot,

00:10:21.420 | not just domestically, but also internationally,

00:10:23.420 | because you have to remember,

00:10:24.880 | he controls so much of the critical supply chain

00:10:27.960 | that the Western world needs to be,

00:10:30.060 | needs to survive, let alone-

00:10:31.940 | - I think you're completely wrong.

00:10:32.980 | I think he's losing his power.

00:10:34.260 | He's scared.

00:10:35.200 | That's why he took out all these CEOs.

00:10:37.300 | He's consolidating power because he fears

00:10:39.080 | that they're gonna win too big and then displace him.

00:10:43.060 | And he has massive real estate problems over there

00:10:45.840 | that could blow up at any moment in time.

00:10:47.260 | He could face a civil war there.

00:10:48.400 | I think he's totally isolated himself.

00:10:49.760 | - Civil war?

00:10:50.600 | They don't even have guns.

00:10:51.420 | - Every major country is removing their factories

00:10:54.700 | and removing this dependency.

00:10:55.540 | - They don't even have any guns there.

00:10:56.380 | What are you talking about?

00:10:57.220 | What are they gonna riot with?

00:10:59.200 | - Did you not see Tiananmen Square?

00:11:02.060 | Did you not see the riots in Hong Kong?

00:11:03.880 | Are you not paying attention, Chamath?

00:11:05.220 | There's been many riots in China.

00:11:06.860 | They just happened to kill all the people.

00:11:07.700 | - Jason, those were crushed.

00:11:09.560 | And that's before he had full control.

00:11:10.400 | - I'm not saying they will be crushed,

00:11:11.240 | but he still will have massive amounts of,

00:11:14.540 | I believe, protests and yeah, he'll have to kill people.

00:11:17.220 | - I think the bigger risk is that

00:11:19.560 | China gets better for Xi Jinping,

00:11:21.640 | but worse for everybody else in China.

00:11:23.580 | It's already worse for all the billionaires over there.

00:11:26.400 | It's worse for the tech industry.

00:11:28.100 | You've now got Evergrande,

00:11:29.480 | that whole gigantic debt implosion.

00:11:32.920 | I think there could be contagion from China next year.

00:11:36.000 | I don't think Xi's gonna lose his grip in any way,

00:11:39.340 | but I'm not sure China's gonna have a good year next year.

00:11:42.500 | - It's gonna be terrible.

00:11:43.740 | I went with Ron DeSantis with USACS.

00:11:45.760 | I think he's obviously a much more,

00:11:49.360 | he's a much more palatable candidate than Trump.

00:11:54.360 | And I think Trump is not gonna wanna run.

00:11:57.820 | And that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022.

00:12:01.480 | As we segue,

00:12:02.720 | I believe this is gonna be split between Biden and Trump,

00:12:05.920 | the two most important people of the last four years.

00:12:09.580 | And I think Biden is gonna lose the midterms.

00:12:11.840 | And I think Trump is gonna get destroyed

00:12:13.320 | with this January 6th thing and bow out and not run again.

00:12:17.280 | Who do you got for your biggest loser?

00:12:18.680 | - Let me add,

00:12:19.160 | I'm kinda an octogenarian to that,

00:12:20.800 | which is my pick for biggest political loser next year

00:12:23.220 | is Nancy Pelosi.

00:12:24.720 | There's a red wave coming.

00:12:26.300 | The Democrats for sure are gonna lose the house.

00:12:28.340 | That is baked into the cake.

00:12:29.860 | And I predict she will announce her retirement

00:12:31.820 | shortly after that.

00:12:32.820 | She has served a couple of pretty consequential terms

00:12:37.180 | as speaker.

00:12:38.020 | She's never lost a vote,

00:12:39.100 | but with this whole build back better,

00:12:41.700 | she forced all of her moderates to take a vote

00:12:44.300 | on 5 trillion in new spending,

00:12:45.740 | which they then lost in the Senate.

00:12:47.580 | And that's gonna cost them some seats.

00:12:48.960 | So she contributed to,

00:12:51.060 | I think her own downfall,

00:12:52.160 | what's gonna happen next year.

00:12:53.660 | - Is Nancy gonna come work at social capital

00:12:55.660 | and you're gonna give her a bucket of capital

00:12:57.500 | to work with to try to play the market?

00:13:02.120 | - By the way, Jason,

00:13:02.820 | who's the excellent writer you got from Tucker

00:13:04.660 | because I wanna hire them.

00:13:06.620 | - All right, listen,

00:13:07.160 | I got somebody from the YouTube comments

00:13:09.120 | who said they would punch me up.

00:13:11.220 | All right, I got Biden and Trump,

00:13:13.120 | Nancy Pelosi, and then who do you got, Freeberg?

00:13:15.760 | Who's your biggest political loser of 2022 prediction?

00:13:18.760 | - Mine's a little depressing,

00:13:21.860 | but I'm honestly a little bit worried

00:13:24.000 | about the United States influence

00:13:26.120 | on kind of a global stage,

00:13:28.160 | socially, politically, economically.

00:13:31.760 | And I think that there's a number of events

00:13:34.760 | that could catalyze kind of a precipitous series of events

00:13:39.560 | that could really harm the continuing influence

00:13:41.960 | the US has geopolitically.

00:13:43.800 | So, I don't really have an individual,

00:13:47.820 | but I kind of have the US.

00:13:48.560 | And it's in its role on the global geopolitical stage.

00:13:51.500 | - US influence.

00:13:52.620 | - US influence, yeah.

00:13:53.500 | - And you said you thought there was gonna be

00:13:55.060 | this potential tipping point perhaps.

00:13:57.220 | Did you see that being Taiwan or what?

00:13:59.660 | - I've got a couple of them.

00:14:00.500 | I think when we get into our contrarian points of view,

00:14:03.120 | I'll share some of them.

00:14:04.420 | - Okay.

00:14:05.660 | Chamath, who do you got for your biggest political loser

00:14:07.900 | for 2022 prediction?

00:14:09.820 | - Well, look, I like your pick of Trump,

00:14:13.360 | which is not mine,

00:14:14.200 | but just to double down on this Trump thing,

00:14:15.700 | it's incredible to see that he's,

00:14:18.360 | just a bamboozler.

00:14:20.760 | You know, that's the same guy who's like,

00:14:22.920 | you know, telling people to not take the vaccine,

00:14:27.100 | gets boosted.

00:14:28.720 | Then, you know, when he finally gets outed

00:14:30.700 | with this other scumbag, what's that guy's name?

00:14:34.220 | What's that other right knob?

00:14:38.520 | - Sax, take out your phone and go to speed dial.

00:14:40.600 | Just read it.

00:14:41.460 | - Riley, Bill O'Reilly, Bill O'Reilly.

00:14:44.520 | Bill O'Reilly.

00:14:45.360 | - Bill O'Reilly, yeah, that's number four on his speed dial.

00:14:46.600 | - Those two dopes on stage are like,

00:14:48.160 | yeah, I got boosted.

00:14:49.000 | What about you?

00:14:49.820 | Yeah, I got triple vaxxed.

00:14:50.660 | And then everybody's booing them.

00:14:52.820 | I mean, they're just such.

00:14:54.220 | - Watch what they do, not what they say.

00:14:55.920 | - These guys are entertainers.

00:14:56.760 | - If you're a dipshit on the alt-right.

00:14:58.120 | - The great thing is they are phenomenal entertainers,

00:15:00.920 | but you can't trust a single word that they say.

00:15:03.160 | So Jason, I think that that's a pretty good pick.

00:15:06.500 | My pick is the progressive left as a class,

00:15:10.020 | because I think these guys are being exposed

00:15:12.460 | basically for just being laughingstocks.

00:15:15.200 | They're quickly becoming policy jokes

00:15:17.960 | inside of Washington and in every city state that they run.

00:15:22.960 | They just can't seem to put one foot in front of the other.

00:15:27.040 | And they've been run amok with folks

00:15:29.200 | like these teachers unions who have really, really,

00:15:32.860 | really done a number on our children,

00:15:34.780 | which is now finally getting exposed in the mainstream media.

00:15:37.780 | And so all of these policies are just,

00:15:41.200 | they're not rooted in any sort of science or legitimacy.

00:15:44.120 | So they are, I think, going to pay a pretty heavy political

00:15:47.760 | price for mainstream voters in 22.

00:15:50.060 | - You know what they remind me of those two guys,

00:15:51.580 | like the old guys from the Muppets, Statler and Waldorf.

00:15:54.880 | That's what like those Trump and O'Reilly are.

00:15:58.580 | Okay, biggest business-

00:15:59.420 | - I think Biden can still save a lot

00:16:02.140 | of his long-term reputation.

00:16:04.440 | I think Trump's is-

00:16:05.580 | - What would Biden need to do in 2022?

00:16:07.960 | Number one thing-

00:16:08.800 | - He needs to disavow the progressives

00:16:11.180 | and basically shore up his party's ability

00:16:13.760 | to win back some seats and hold the line.

00:16:16.320 | And so you're not gonna be able to end it.

00:16:17.560 | You're gonna be able to enter some of these places

00:16:19.220 | with some of this rhetoric that he basically was convinced

00:16:23.400 | would be necessary for him to not lose the progressive left.

00:16:26.340 | There just needs to be a conversation inside the White House

00:16:28.520 | where they actually go through the cold political calculus

00:16:31.220 | of my enemies, enemies, actually my friend kind of thing,

00:16:34.380 | and actually go back to the center.

00:16:35.960 | - Yeah, he needs to pull a Bill Clinton and triangulate.

00:16:37.800 | - He needs to pull a Bill Clinton.

00:16:39.080 | - Okay.

00:16:39.920 | - And quickly too.

00:16:41.420 | - I think it's way too early to conclude

00:16:42.800 | that the Biden presidency is over.

00:16:44.260 | I mean, I think they're gonna lose Congress next year.

00:16:47.360 | That's baked into the cake,

00:16:48.660 | but he's still got two years after that

00:16:50.640 | to pull his chest down outside of the fire.

00:16:52.740 | And if the Republicans overplay their hand

00:16:55.340 | and he tacks towards the center,

00:16:57.300 | you know, he can change his fortunes.

00:16:59.300 | - He can change his fortunes quickly.

00:17:00.540 | - He's down a pawn, but he could develop the board.

00:17:02.660 | I got it.

00:17:03.500 | - All right.

00:17:04.340 | - I think the voice of populism's only gonna swell

00:17:06.880 | over the next year.

00:17:08.140 | And that's gonna be the predominant force

00:17:11.700 | that's gonna drive both the alt-right

00:17:14.300 | and the progressive left.

00:17:15.460 | And it, you know, you could make the case

00:17:17.160 | that, you know, politicians that are in seats

00:17:20.000 | should be kind of disavowing these,

00:17:21.900 | what we today are calling kind of extreme voices,

00:17:24.540 | but they're only getting louder

00:17:26.340 | and the importance of kind of populist movements,

00:17:28.640 | not just in the US, but you look around the world.

00:17:30.640 | I mean, look at what's happening in Brazil,

00:17:33.180 | various European countries.

00:17:34.480 | I mean, it is-

00:17:35.320 | - Wait, so you think populism

00:17:36.360 | is gonna have a rebound in 2022?

00:17:38.900 | We're all saying that we think it's fizzling.

00:17:41.160 | - Well, can I just say, Friedberg-

00:17:42.480 | - I think populism's swelling

00:17:43.780 | and I think it's gonna get louder.

00:17:44.920 | - Oh, okay.

00:17:45.760 | - Low interest rates are gonna be

00:17:46.960 | higher rates are simply keeping things at bay for now.

00:17:49.580 | And I think that's gonna shift very quickly in-

00:17:52.080 | - But Friedberg, populism just means what's popular.

00:17:54.720 | And so I think there's a huge silent majority

00:17:57.440 | that's always stayed on the sidelines

00:17:58.900 | because they're not the ones that tend to have a tendency

00:18:02.440 | to complain, but when things get important enough,

00:18:04.720 | they typically show up.

00:18:05.820 | And so, you know, we may find that actually

00:18:08.140 | centrism is what's most popular.

00:18:10.000 | - I think populism is anti-elitism.

00:18:13.200 | And I think that there is a growing concern globally

00:18:15.480 | because of globalization,

00:18:16.760 | that power and capital has been concentrated

00:18:20.500 | in the hands of a few,

00:18:22.300 | that the voice of the majority is we want to be shared.

00:18:25.640 | We want that to all be shared equally.

00:18:27.440 | And that's what's driving populism around the world.

00:18:29.640 | And it's in the US, you know,

00:18:31.640 | manifesting in different ways on the left and the right.

00:18:34.200 | And you'll see this in other countries around the world,

00:18:37.080 | but I don't see the fundamental driving forces changing

00:18:40.440 | there until and unless we have massive taxation

00:18:43.900 | and redistribute wealth in a meaningful way,

00:18:46.560 | and that's what's going to be the key to the future.

00:18:49.320 | - Yeah, I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:50.800 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:51.640 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:52.480 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:53.320 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:54.160 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:55.000 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:55.820 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:56.660 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:57.500 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:58.340 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:18:59.180 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:00.020 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:00.860 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:01.700 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:02.540 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:03.360 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:04.200 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:05.020 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:05.860 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:06.700 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:07.520 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:08.360 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:09.200 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:10.020 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:10.860 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:11.700 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:12.520 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:13.360 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:14.200 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:15.040 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:15.880 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:16.720 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:17.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:18.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:19.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:20.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:20.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:21.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:22.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:23.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:24.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:25.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:25.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:26.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:27.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:28.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:29.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:30.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:30.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:31.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:32.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:33.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:34.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:35.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:35.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:36.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:37.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:38.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:39.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:40.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:40.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:41.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:42.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:43.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:44.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:45.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:45.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:46.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:47.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:48.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:49.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:50.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:50.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:51.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:52.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:53.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:54.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:55.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:55.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:56.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:57.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:58.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:19:59.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:00.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:00.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:01.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:02.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:03.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:04.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:05.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:05.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:06.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:07.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:08.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:09.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:10.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:10.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:11.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:12.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:13.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:14.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:15.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:15.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:16.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:17.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:18.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:19.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:20.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:20.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:21.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:22.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:23.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:24.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:25.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:25.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:26.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:27.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:28.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:29.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:30.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:30.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:31.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:32.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:33.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:34.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:35.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:35.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:36.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:37.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:38.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:39.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:40.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:40.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:41.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:42.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:43.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:44.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:45.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:45.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:46.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:47.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:48.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:49.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:50.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:50.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:51.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:52.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:53.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:54.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:55.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:55.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:56.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:57.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:58.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:20:59.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:00.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:00.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:01.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:02.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:03.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:04.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:05.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:05.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:06.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:07.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:08.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:09.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:10.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:10.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:11.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:12.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:13.400 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:14.240 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:15.060 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:15.900 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:16.740 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:17.560 | I think that's a big part of it.

00:21:18.400 | that are not the traditional California and New York centers

00:21:21.520 | of industry and wealth.

00:21:23.240 | I think it's a trend that's been going on,

00:21:25.580 | but it's going to keep getting bigger next year.

00:21:27.400 | If you guys saw the net migration numbers by state,

00:21:31.160 | they're absolutely stunning.

00:21:32.740 | Stunning.

00:21:33.300 | So, and it's the zero-tax states

00:21:35.700 | that are just booming right now.

00:21:37.000 | It's states like Florida and Texas and Tennessee

00:21:39.520 | and on and on it goes

00:21:41.300 | at the huge expense of California and New York.

00:21:43.740 | I think that trend's only going to pick up steam

00:21:46.260 | now that salt is dead.

00:21:47.780 | I think there was a hope on the part of many people

00:21:50.480 | that Trump got rid of salt,

00:21:51.840 | but then the Democrats were supposed to bring it back

00:21:53.780 | and then AOC rejected it.

00:21:55.480 | It's not coming back.

00:21:56.820 | And what that means is that if you're in, say, California,

00:21:59.820 | for example, with the salt deduction,

00:22:02.520 | your effective tax rate was around 8%, not 13.3%.

00:22:06.560 | Now it really is 13.3%.

00:22:08.360 | That's a huge increase.

00:22:10.280 | And the politicians in California don't even realize

00:22:13.200 | that the tax rate has effectively gone up

00:22:15.380 | to the end taxpayer.

00:22:17.160 | And the quality of life isn't any better.

00:22:20.480 | We're not getting anything more for that.

00:22:21.780 | And so I think this X is going to continue.

00:22:23.920 | That's the subtle math that they actually really need

00:22:25.820 | to understand.

00:22:26.620 | That 500 basis points, you can overcome that

00:22:30.160 | if your life is 5% better in enough ways

00:22:32.820 | where you're like, it's fine.

00:22:34.240 | And the reason why people are leaving is they feel

00:22:37.240 | that their life is actually much less than 5% worse.

00:22:40.660 | Right.

00:22:41.160 | If the trash doesn't get picked up.

00:22:41.780 | The quality of life doesn't justify it.

00:22:42.980 | You know, your windows are getting smashed in all the time.

00:22:45.740 | Safety.

00:22:46.240 | Your kids are, you know, dead.

00:22:46.540 | They're depressed and need counseling because of the way

00:22:49.120 | that the teachers unions lock them out of school.

00:22:51.200 | You're just like, forget this.

00:22:52.620 | I can't do this anymore.

00:22:53.720 | Right.

00:22:53.940 | You got to add those two numbers.

00:22:54.980 | Yeah.

00:22:55.180 | Here, here.

00:22:55.940 | That's what people really need to appreciate.

00:22:58.580 | I don't think it's the actual effective tax rate,

00:23:00.700 | but it's the delta of how poor your quality of life has gotten

00:23:04.120 | over these last few years relative to the tax you pay.

00:23:06.580 | Yeah, I totally agree with that.

00:23:08.880 | And then one other effect that I think plays

00:23:11.000 | into this is the reshoring of American industry,

00:23:13.520 | which is not happening in places like California, New York.

00:23:15.920 | It's happening in places like Texas.

00:23:17.360 | Sure.

00:23:17.660 | Samsung just announced a $17 billion investment

00:23:21.380 | in a new chip foundry in Texas.

00:23:24.740 | Here, I'll post this.

00:23:25.860 | And there's a lot of things like this happening.

00:23:27.440 | So as we decouple from China and bring our supply chain home.

00:23:31.100 | Let's go.

00:23:31.540 | That is going to be a big factor in the rise of the rest.

00:23:33.800 | Love it.

00:23:34.040 | Love it.

00:23:34.840 | And it's great.

00:23:35.320 | It's great for America because the wealth does need to be more evenly distributed.

00:23:38.840 | It can't just go to tech and finance elites in California and New York.

00:23:43.160 | Yeah.

00:23:43.420 | All right.

00:23:44.740 | Um, I had two.

00:23:45.880 | Uh, Disney was my biggest corporate winner for 2022.

00:23:49.840 | Disney plus crushing it.

00:23:51.000 | Parks raised prices.

00:23:52.420 | People want to go to the park.

00:23:53.260 | Spider-Man just had, I think the number two or number three all time, uh, opening in a pandemic,

00:23:59.200 | which is crazy.

00:24:00.080 | That IP is going to continue to work for them.

00:24:02.020 | John Favreau and David Fiolini, I think is how you pronounce his last name.

00:24:06.800 | Both crushing it with Mandalorian.

00:24:09.020 | Boba Fett, one of the great characters from our childhood now is going to have his own book of Boba Fett starting on December 3rd.

00:24:15.860 | 29th.

00:24:16.460 | Is that today or tomorrow?

00:24:17.360 | Uh, tomorrow.

00:24:18.620 | And so I think Disney is going to have a huge surge.

00:24:20.760 | I think they're undervalued, but my, my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was millennials in Gen Z.

00:24:26.620 | I think that they became completely empowered and independent.

00:24:30.200 | They shook off the participation trophies and their entitlement during COVID.

00:24:35.780 | They realized that they have skills that are valuable.

00:24:39.080 | They're sought after.

00:24:40.340 | They learned how to make money.

00:24:41.540 | They traded crypto.

00:24:43.020 | They did stock trading.

00:24:44.420 | They're doing shorts, puts, whatever.

00:24:45.640 | On Robin hood.

00:24:46.480 | And they're just not impressed with people in power.

00:24:48.400 | And they increasingly want to build shit and make money.

00:24:50.980 | I think that those two generations have woken up and I think they're going to be the biggest winners in 2022.

00:24:56.140 | Because dovetailing with your SMBs Chamath, I do think, uh, and I'm seeing it across my entire portfolio of companies.

00:25:03.140 | Uh, you try to hire somebody and they're like, yeah, but maybe I can just start my own company.

00:25:06.400 | You and me and Saks are actually saying a flavor of the same thing, actually.

00:25:09.400 | Yeah.

00:25:09.900 | Because all these SMBs aren't going to happen in New York and San Francisco.

00:25:13.140 | They're happening all over the world.

00:25:14.520 | Yeah.

00:25:14.760 | Yeah.

00:25:15.040 | Yeah.

00:25:15.400 | America and there are people that are taking empowerment into

00:25:17.960 | their own hands. There's tooling for them. And there's

00:25:20.900 | opportunity, economic opportunity for them to build

00:25:23.000 | businesses on their own. And basically just say, you know,

00:25:25.820 | f nothing will build your confidence with you sacks.

00:25:28.780 | Nothing builds your confidence like moving from one city to

00:25:31.360 | another. And having that's a very empowering thing to do when

00:25:34.360 | you're just like, you know what, I'm going to just leave and go

00:25:35.700 | somewhere else. I'll make it myself. So I feel like they are

00:25:39.340 | super impressive to me

00:25:40.820 | really believe in I really believe in this because the

00:25:42.640 | three of us got there in totally different ways. But I

00:25:44.840 | think it's roughly all the same, we might be triangulating

00:25:47.120 | around a trend here biggest business loser for 2022. I'll

00:25:50.780 | just give it real quick. I think crypto projects that actually

00:25:53.360 | don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be lost. I

00:26:00.140 | think this idea that people are going to bet on things that

00:26:02.700 | don't exist in the real world or don't actually have

00:26:04.720 | applications is going to end it's time for crypto to put up

00:26:07.560 | or shut up. And I think the crypto projects that do that,

00:26:10.040 | which a number of them are starting to are going to store

00:26:13.220 | but it's going to be a big shake out there.

00:26:14.840 | What do you got for biggest business loser in 2022?

00:26:17.420 | Freeberg?

00:26:17.920 | I agree with you, actually, that was mine. Yeah, oh, wow. I

00:26:22.040 | said crypto bubble will burst. There's a lot of scammy nonsense

00:26:25.100 | going on. 90% of these projects, okay, you know, are not going to

00:26:28.560 | yield value and fundamentals. And I also think that rising

00:26:32.340 | interest rates are going to affect the crypto market.

00:26:34.640 | There's a lot of leverage trades into the crypto assets, those

00:26:40.140 | will start to deliver as these interest rates shift up. And as a

00:26:44.800 | whole, you'll see a large percentage of them go away or

00:26:47.380 | decline in value, but a small number will continue to grow in

00:26:49.960 | value, just like we saw in the dot com bubble blew up. There was

00:26:52.960 | a number of companies that survived. Most of them did not.

00:26:56.380 | And the few that did survive ended up being coming worth 10

00:26:59.100 | times what the current market value is. And I think that that's

00:27:01.300 | still possible with these crypto projects. But I'd say 90% of them

00:27:05.220 | are probably going to start to blow up next year.

00:27:06.800 | What do you got, Shabbat?

00:27:07.800 | Well, I guess I'm fading you guys. And I'm also fading

00:27:11.960 | implicitly, Freeberg's pick of stripe. But I'm going to say,

00:27:14.560 | you know, I think that the biggest business loser for 2022

00:27:18.640 | is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails and

00:27:21.180 | the entire ecosystem around it. So I think that this is the year

00:27:25.480 | you can put on what probably will be the most profitable

00:27:28.760 | spread trade of my lifetime, which is to be short these

00:27:33.020 | companies, and that anybody that basically lives off of this two

00:27:36.760 | or 3% tax and be long, well thought out web three crypto

00:27:43.220 | projects that are

00:27:44.140 | rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely

00:27:47.440 | decentralized way. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that

00:27:50.860 | what you say won't also happen, both that stripe will have an

00:27:54.220 | incredible IPO and that a lot of these scammy crypto projects

00:27:56.920 | will go to zero. However, if you read the white papers of these

00:28:00.020 | crypto projects, and you systematically put together a

00:28:03.280 | framework, I think you can be long those. And you can be short

00:28:06.880 | Visa MasterCard because I think this is their peak market cap.

00:28:10.560 | And for those of you don't know, fading and sports betting taking

00:28:13.760 | the opposite.

00:28:14.140 | Side of a bet, taking the opposite team, I guess man visas

00:28:17.440 | market cap is half a trillion dollars, huh? It's incredible.

00:28:21.520 | It's a completely contrived duopoly that doesn't mean to a

00:28:24.640 | young person and MasterCard is almost 400 billion. So they're

00:28:28.120 | trillion dollar combined market.

00:28:29.560 | You have to understand that the canary in the coal mine here is

00:28:33.040 | pretty significant. The most important thing is Amazon.

00:28:36.340 | Earlier this year, Nick, maybe you can post this decided to

00:28:39.760 | just shut visa off in the UK. Oh, yeah. Amazon is not going to

00:28:43.420 | do something like that.

00:28:43.960 | In my opinion, unless it's a test of what they can do all

00:28:47.380 | around the world. And again, going back to this idea of arming

00:28:50.800 | the rebels, there really is no need today for all of these

00:28:55.000 | small businesses to sit on top of visa, MasterCard and Amex

00:28:58.960 | rails, it's unnecessary. And so it'll probably get developed in

00:29:03.100 | the developing world first. This is why I think you know,

00:29:05.260 | focusing in markets like Nigeria, to me are way more

00:29:08.320 | exciting than talking about, right, you know, these fading

00:29:11.860 | Western European countries who are going to be the ones who are

00:29:13.840 | going to be the ones who are going to be the ones who are

00:29:14.860 | going to be the ones who are going to be the ones who are

00:29:15.460 | going to be the ones who are going to be the ones who are going to be the ones who are going to be the

00:29:15.980 | right. This is where this stuff will happen. It's not to say that

00:29:19.120 | those are those other companies can't, you know, trundle along

00:29:22.400 | for a while. But when I say, you know, we'll look back in 10

00:29:25.660 | years, and their market caps will be materially lower.

00:29:29.720 | Anybody in those traditional infrastructure and rails versus

00:29:34.200 | anybody in this new infrastructure and rails will be

00:29:36.800 | it will look like a no brainer.

00:29:38.860 | Do you consider the buy now pay later companies like a firm and

00:29:42.580 | upstart or whatever?

00:29:43.720 | I don't know if upstart fits in that category. But some of these

00:29:45.720 | buy now pay later businesses as being the alternative to the

00:29:48.320 | traditional payment networks? Or do you think it's a different

00:29:50.640 | business?

00:29:51.160 | No, I've right now I think what what buy now pay later is, is a

00:29:55.160 | rate arbitrage, right? When as you said earlier, rates are

00:29:58.500 | very, very low. So the cost of capital is low. But it again,

00:30:02.320 | starts to habituate the consumer experience to, I don't need to

00:30:05.680 | pay these users rates to these three credit card companies to

00:30:09.440 | facilitate a transaction of money that I already have or

00:30:12.680 | money that I'm good for.

00:30:14.040 | That's the big idea, right. And so when you translate that into

00:30:17.100 | Web three in a good project or a good series of projects, you're

00:30:20.760 | not going to need these companies. And so it's going to

00:30:22.940 | I think, eviscerate trillions of dollars of market cap.

00:30:25.920 | Not to mention, you also have in between these two Venmo and

00:30:29.580 | cash app, which are not crypto, but they certainly as brands

00:30:33.000 | mean more to young people, like do you think Visa and MasterCard?

00:30:35.700 | Yeah, do you think block used to be called square is a good pair

00:30:38.800 | trade against Visa MasterCard in this context? Yeah, like it.

00:30:41.740 | You know, I think that that

00:30:43.660 | starts to get closer to to the truth. My perspective is, you can

00:30:48.760 | kind of short anybody who's public, because anybody who's

00:30:52.300 | public can really only be public or will go public, because they

00:30:57.100 | feast off of this artificial two or 3% transaction fee.

00:31:01.060 | Everybody does. The companies you want to be long are those

00:31:04.840 | private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of

00:31:08.080 | whose protocols have utility and who's building some element of

00:31:12.520 | infrastructure.

00:31:13.420 | That replaces a traditional business. So as long as you can

00:31:17.920 | kind of build those things up, Balaji, for example, had a bunch

00:31:21.100 | of tweets this weekend where he was like, you know, I he has this

00:31:24.100 | idea for a mirror table. What is that that replaces, you know,

00:31:27.340 | cap table management, right now? Why is that important? Well, it

00:31:31.180 | because it touches all of these really important KYC AML

00:31:36.100 | investing laws across all these countries in all of these

00:31:38.980 | places. It's just a very simple example of where the new company

00:31:42.760 | that actually builds that capability of these mirror tables

00:31:45.760 | will do so at virtually no cost. And so it'll have a 50 person

00:31:49.780 | team. And so they're not going to have offices all over the

00:31:52.180 | world, their cost basis will be, you know, an order or two orders

00:31:56.680 | of magnitude.

00:31:57.160 | That's basic visa MasterCard became a tax. It took decades to

00:32:01.720 | have that power over folks. And then they but I think a firm does

00:32:05.020 | break that a firm breaks it because the people who are

00:32:07.720 | selling, then decide, you know what, we'll give a little bit of

00:32:10.420 | a discount here to get more people to buy.

00:32:12.580 | Go ahead. They were the classic network monopoly network effect

00:32:16.060 | monopoly business, right? Like they got the small businesses,

00:32:18.520 | they got the credit cards, and by extension, the consumers on

00:32:21.760 | the network. And ultimately, they created these these

00:32:24.280 | absolutely locked in networks. But as with all networks,

00:32:27.880 | complacency kind of, you know, drives innovation. And this

00:32:31.720 | field innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure

00:32:34.120 | out ways to not just crack their way into the network, but to

00:32:37.000 | replace them with an entirely different model.

00:32:38.500 | Last point on this, this is not one where I think this disruption

00:32:41.200 | has happened.

00:32:41.920 | Disruption happens slow. I think it happens swiftly,

00:32:45.400 | swiftly being five to 10 years. No, like in a year.

00:32:48.820 | Yeah, to my point is really interesting, because there's,

00:32:51.520 | you know, there are several billion people globally, who do

00:32:55.000 | not have credit and who are unbanked. And so if you think

00:32:58.420 | about where this is more likely to come from, it's more likely

00:33:01.040 | to come from an innovative model in those markets that then

00:33:04.540 | ultimately finds its way into the developed world. Versus, you

00:33:08.260 | know, trying to break apart visa and MasterCard and go get these

00:33:10.900 | small businesses to switch.

00:33:11.740 | Switch out of them and so on today. So it's a really

00:33:15.040 | interesting.

00:33:15.420 | Okay, sacks. What do you got?

00:33:16.740 | I don't know if it's biggest loser. But the thing I'm most

00:33:18.300 | worried about is in 2022, the Fed is going to stop quantitative

00:33:22.560 | easing or so they have said they are, I guess March will be the

00:33:26.380 | last month in which they do this QE. So starting in April, there

00:33:31.120 | won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system. And so I

00:33:34.360 | think the the losers are going to be any of these asset classes

00:33:37.780 | that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this

00:33:41.080 | excess liquidity sloshing through the system. It's true

00:33:45.340 | that the stock market I think has already priced in rate

00:33:47.900 | increases and an increase in the discount rate. But I don't know

00:33:50.980 | if markets can fully price in reduction in liquidity. We don't

00:33:55.060 | know exactly what that's going to look like. And so if liquidity

00:33:57.940 | is reduced next year, I think that could reverberate through a

00:34:02.200 | bunch of markets including you know, everything from sports

00:34:05.920 | cards, you know, collectibles, which have gone through the roof

00:34:09.460 | to art

00:34:10.840 | to crypto to, you know, maybe some growth stocks and on and on

00:34:16.840 | it goes. So that's my biggest worry is what happens when the

00:34:22.340 | Fed stops QE.

00:34:23.720 | The biggest loser is markets because of quantitative markets

00:34:27.640 | that have to get off drugs, basically.

00:34:30.400 | Okay, most contrarian belief. Sax, why don't you tell us your

00:34:33.580 | most contrarian belief since I'm sure that you workshop this with

00:34:36.700 | the contrarian Peter Thiel himself. It never ends.

00:34:40.540 | Yeah, I mean, so I have a couple of them here. Actually,

00:34:43.780 | you want to wait and go after everybody else? Sure. Yeah, go

00:34:46.420 | ahead.

00:34:46.540 | I don't even know if this is contrarian or just

00:34:48.940 | unconventional. But I think that all of this pressure in on the

00:34:55.780 | progressive left will manifest in the chosen one, AOC deciding

00:35:02.800 | to step up and run against Schumer in the primary in June of

00:35:06.200 | 2022. And she will lose.

00:35:09.580 | Wow, that's a good prediction.

00:35:12.340 | I like to mouth prediction.

00:35:13.660 | That's a bold one. Yeah, that she would lose his ball.

00:35:15.940 | Well, sorry, just to give a little bit of color in this, like,

00:35:17.920 | let's just assume that she doesn't. Right. And you know,

00:35:21.660 | she shouldn't but let's think about where she's sitting. Build

00:35:25.360 | back better is over. There's an enormous amount of stuff

00:35:29.100 | happening right now where, you know, it looks like the

00:35:32.220 | progressive left is really going to be put under pressure. And

00:35:35.680 | it's almost as if she's really going to be the standard bearer.

00:35:38.620 | And

00:35:39.400 | she needs to do something quickly. Otherwise, she's going

00:35:42.020 | to have to wait until she's 38. You know, she's, you know,

00:35:45.340 | another six years from now, because it's not unlikely that

00:35:47.480 | she's going to run against Kristen, Kirsten Gillibrand. So

00:35:51.260 | this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer

00:35:54.860 | frustration, she steps up. And then we will see whether

00:35:58.640 | freeburgers right or I'm right, whether the populism is really

00:36:01.180 | around the left or the populism is really around the silent

00:36:03.560 | majority.

00:36:03.960 | What do you got? Sex?

00:36:06.380 | I think it's good. I think that's a very good prediction.

00:36:08.720 | In a similar way, I predict that there will be a strange new

00:36:12.560 | respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of

00:36:15.920 | next year. Why? Because after the red wave, there'll be a

00:36:18.780 | recognition that they need to move towards the center, they

00:36:21.300 | need to triangulate. And, and Clinton was the one who provided

00:36:24.620 | the formula for doing this, he dragged the Democratic Party

00:36:27.420 | back to the center after they were losing elections. And the

00:36:30.500 | other piece of this is going to be that

00:36:32.660 | it's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans

00:36:37.940 | now are swing voters. And I think you're going to see in

00:36:41.180 | November 2022, that they go for Republicans and big numbers. And

00:36:44.720 | so the idea that the Democratic Party can just coast to election

00:36:49.060 | based on demographics, I think that theory is going to be

00:36:53.000 | imperiled. Yeah. And so they're going to be looking to Clinton

00:36:56.780 | and maybe not so much Obama, as the as sort of the predicate they

00:37:01.440 | should be, you know, aspiring to in the future.

00:37:03.200 | I think what's important about that is those groups of people,

00:37:06.020 | I think are offended by the

00:37:07.880 | the free money gets something for nothing. They're hardworking

00:37:10.860 | immigrant people who have pride, they don't want handouts. And

00:37:13.880 | then you have this left white liberal maniac saying, No, no,

00:37:16.980 | you're poor, you need handouts, you don't, you shouldn't work,

00:37:19.220 | you need handouts, you're, you know, and I just think they

00:37:22.700 | don't buy it. And that's why I think they're gonna go to the

00:37:24.340 | Republicans, because Republicans are hardworking and freedom

00:37:26.540 | loving.

00:37:27.040 | And what was Clinton's big tagline in his campaign, he said

00:37:30.620 | that he supports people who work hard and play by the rules. That

00:37:34.640 | was that so great. That's the message that Democrats got to

00:37:37.160 | refine, right?

00:37:37.880 | Now, they seem to be on the side of basically, drug addicts. I

00:37:41.540 | mean, you know, people who junkies are contributing nothing

00:37:44.480 | and pitching tents in the middle of public spaces and, you know,

00:37:47.600 | participating in open air drug markets. Yeah, what do you got

00:37:50.340 | and sore losers? Don't forget sore losers. Yeah.

00:37:53.100 | And hysterical free burn and hysterical people. I mean, big

00:37:56.600 | hysterical just never good. Look,

00:37:57.980 | if you'll bear with me, I have, I have three, but I couldn't

00:38:03.080 | really pick. So the first one is I think, and I shared this on

00:38:05.640 | the pod the other day, I think we'll see the start of the

00:38:07.880 | next episode of great global conflict. We often rationalize

00:38:15.200 | the series of events that that catalyze conflict after the fact,

00:38:19.100 | rather than recognizing that there was emotional conditioning

00:38:23.600 | that allowed it to arise in the first place. I think we're in a

00:38:26.900 | state today, where the conditioning is such that we're

00:38:30.320 | more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have

00:38:34.640 | been in a very long time. I don't know if it's kind of the

00:38:36.680 | conflict meter, or what happened.

00:38:37.640 | Yeah, I think it's kind of the conflict meter, or what happened

00:38:37.640 | in the first place. I think we're in a state today, where the

00:38:37.640 | conditioning is such that we're more inclined to engage in conflict

00:38:37.740 | globally than we have been in a very long time. I don't know if it's

00:38:37.840 | kind of the conflict meter, or what happened in the first place.

00:38:37.840 | I think we're in a state today, where the conditioning is such that we're

00:38:37.840 | more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have

00:38:37.940 | you. But you know, you could see proxy wars, and proxy

00:38:42.840 | conflict that arise sort of like what we're seeing, you know,

00:38:45.480 | maybe something in the Ukraine, maybe something related to

00:38:48.080 | Taiwan. But this is primarily predicated by the fact that

00:38:51.160 | we've got kind of this inflationary environment and the

00:38:54.100 | rise of populism will force the kind of domestic policymakers

00:38:59.620 | and legislators to say we should do something that's active and

00:39:03.200 | something that will allow us to unite our nations to go and get

00:39:07.480 | into a conflict.

00:39:07.780 | conflict somewhere, or more likely to do that than not. And so

00:39:11.280 | I would say that the conditioning is there to see something like

00:39:13.660 | that happen. And so we're not kind of thinking, hey, next year

00:39:17.800 | is going to be a year of war. And that's why it's contrarian. I

00:39:20.960 | think that there may be war that we're not kind of paying

00:39:24.040 | attention to today, or that will surprise us after the fact. The

00:39:27.660 | second thing is, I'd say China may solidify its position next

00:39:31.600 | year. And this is going to sound a little crazy as a leader in

00:39:35.040 | climate change mitigation. Whereas it's

00:39:37.640 | historically been considered kind of the primary foe against

00:39:42.680 | climate change. And there's a couple of behaviors we've seen

00:39:45.240 | come out of China recently that I think number one, remember,

00:39:47.820 | China is a very rational actor, they do analysis, they make

00:39:51.180 | decisions based on long term investments and thinking, they

00:39:54.140 | recently announced that they're going to build 115 new nuclear

00:39:56.840 | reactors over the next 15 years at a cost of roughly $450

00:40:00.020 | billion. That's about $3 billion per nuclear power plant. The US

00:40:04.420 | is currently spending $30 billion building two power plants in

00:40:07.440 | Georgia. And that's a huge amount of money. And that's a

00:40:07.580 | huge amount of money. And that's a huge amount of money. And that's

00:40:08.080 | a huge amount of money. And that's a huge amount of money. And

00:40:08.580 | that's a huge amount of money. And that's a huge amount of money.

00:40:08.580 | So the Chinese have figured it out. They've also publicly

00:40:11.080 | declared that they're going to be completely carbon neutral with

00:40:13.820 | their economy by the year 2060. And they're making the

00:40:16.580 | investments through these nuclear power plants to

00:40:18.500 | demonstrate that they're actually on the road to do that.

00:40:20.780 | And there are a number of other infrastructure initiatives that

00:40:23.340 | are meant to help them achieve significant reductions in in

00:40:27.960 | carbon by by 2040. So So let me just point out why this is

00:40:31.500 | important, because right now everyone thinks China is the

00:40:33.420 | foe, they're causing climate change, they're the biggest

00:40:35.780 | problem. Imagine if over the next decade, China is the biggest

00:40:35.800 | problem. Imagine if over the next decade, China is the biggest

00:40:35.940 | problem. Imagine if over the next decade, China is the biggest

00:40:37.740 | year, some of what they're doing pays off. And everyone

00:40:40.640 | says, My gosh, China is leading the world in climate change

00:40:43.860 | mitigation, their influence socially and politically will

00:40:47.060 | rise. And this this gives China a very strong kind of position,

00:40:50.820 | you know, on a global stage and with kind of people around the

00:40:53.940 | world thinking, instead of China being a foe, maybe they're the

00:40:56.700 | leader and the US is the laggard. And that creates a my

00:41:00.480 | third is very random, which is some sort of natural catastrophe.

00:41:04.260 | We

00:41:04.860 | we

00:41:05.740 | never

00:41:05.920 | account, you know, all natural catastrophes are very low

00:41:09.280 | probability, but very high severity. If you multiply the

00:41:12.700 | probability by the severity, you have what's called the expected

00:41:15.460 | loss, we always undervalue the expected loss of massive

00:41:19.720 | catastrophes, natural catastrophes. We haven't had one

00:41:22.600 | in a while. It's a very low probability bet for me to say,

00:41:26.040 | Hey, maybe we will. But if we do, it's certainly under

00:41:29.300 | appreciated in markets today. And so when these kind of, you

00:41:32.140 | know, black swan type events occur, did you? Did you watch

00:41:35.660 | Don't Look Up on Netflix? Is that why you're no, what is that?

00:41:38.600 | It's a new movie about a crap. Don't watch it. It's polarizing.

00:41:42.940 | Let's leave it out for now. Okay. I'll watch it. It's crap.

00:41:47.240 | My most contrarian belief is I think this is contrarian is that

00:41:51.360 | American influence and exceptional exceptionalism is

00:41:54.540 | going to soar.

00:41:55.460 | That is contrarian.

00:41:58.180 | I think we've empowered this next generation as I talked

00:42:01.580 | about earlier, millennials, Gen Z are ready to be independent to

00:42:05.360 | build shit. And I think Gen X is going to start taking over from

00:42:07.880 | boomers, as is what's happening in this very podcast here as we

00:42:11.600 | start to hit our prime years as executives. And then all these

00:42:16.240 | boomers are retiring, as Chamath has pointed out over and over

00:42:18.640 | again, and they're going to pass down their wealth, which then

00:42:20.720 | creates a perfect storm of a ton of capital, a ton of energy,

00:42:24.480 | lots of new ideas, a different perspective, what our economy is

00:42:27.640 | going to boom. And we will prove once again, that we're the

00:42:30.740 | greatest country and economy in the world.

00:42:32.740 | Dickie, you're not you're not a contrarian. You're what we call

00:42:35.020 | an optimist. Yeah. Okay. And then I'll add to that, Jake, how

00:42:38.200 | what are we? Are we Gen X?

00:42:39.400 | We're Gen X. Yes. And the fighting over COVID abortion

00:42:43.660 | guns, social justice and all this stuff is so exhausting. Not

00:42:47.080 | that these are not important issues that I think everybody is

00:42:50.060 | going to move to, let's just start respecting and building and

00:42:53.640 | solving problems. And I just think American exceptionalism

00:42:56.440 | will be

00:42:57.520 | all that happens in 2022.

00:43:00.100 | I just think that that is my contrarian belief for 2020.

00:43:03.580 | Everybody believes it's all primary.

00:43:04.980 | race. Everybody believes it's coming apart. I don't think

00:43:08.580 | that it's coming apart. century in a year. I think it's gonna be

00:43:12.320 | a great year. I think it's gonna be a great year. I give my second

00:43:15.020 | contrarian prediction. Oh, God, here we go. Yes. Okay. Good. Here

00:43:20.040 | it is. I think the media, the media is going to pull a total

00:43:23.280 | 180 on COVID. Okay, so after pumping out COVID fear porn for

00:43:27.180 | two years, you're going to change their tune next year.

00:43:30.240 | Some of the things you're going to hear we need to live with

00:43:32.880 | COVID. It can't be eradicated.

00:43:34.680 | They're even going to say it's it's more like a cold or flu.

00:43:38.400 | They're going to say that politicians can't be expected to

00:43:41.280 | stop it. They're going to memory hole their support for lockdowns

00:43:44.560 | or we never supported that. And why is all this because we have

00:43:49.920 | an election next year and more Americans have already died from

00:43:53.940 | COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump. That's a pretty

00:43:56.760 | amazing hold. What was your term? Yeah, you've never heard

00:43:59.080 | the term memory hole. It's what the memory hole got it. Yeah.

00:44:03.660 | But did you guys know that?

00:44:04.640 | That more Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden

00:44:07.520 | than Trump? That's that is stunning. Yeah, it is stunning.

00:44:10.400 | Are you sure? Yeah. 100% now,

00:44:13.760 | it's writers triple fact checked it. Yeah, they did. They did.

00:44:16.480 | No, look, look it up. And it's certainly it's gonna be even

00:44:19.680 | more true.

00:44:20.060 | It's on info worse.com. You can look it up.

00:44:21.820 | Omicron wave.

00:44:22.700 | Now look, I don't blame Joe Biden for that.

00:44:26.360 | Sorry, why is that because Trump had no vaccine and Biden has had

00:44:30.000 | vaccines and everything else.

00:44:31.100 | Maybe it's the consistency of the consistent, you know,

00:44:34.620 | one to 2000 people die a day 1400 a day. So maybe it's just

00:44:37.980 | that consistency in the US. Yeah, I think it's because of the

00:44:41.040 | Republican states that refuse to do any mitigation. Okay, let's

00:44:45.820 | keep going.

00:44:46.320 | Look, I don't blame Biden for that. I don't blame any President

00:44:50.520 | United States. Nonetheless, Biden campaigned on the idea of

00:44:54.720 | these quote unquote, shutting down the virus. He and the

00:44:58.800 | Democrats claim to that they would be able to eradicate it.

00:45:01.380 | That was the entire basis for all these COVID restrictions.

00:45:04.580 | Now it's it's the case that it can't be done. Everyone's

00:45:07.940 | realizing that they're gonna have to move the goalposts and

00:45:10.740 | memory hole ever saying that. And so the Democrats desperately

00:45:14.960 | need COVID to be over for the 2022 midterms. Therefore, the

00:45:19.160 | media will say it's over.

00:45:20.480 | Well, you started to see it already, because the media is

00:45:22.760 | probably scratching their head. They were the ones trying to

00:45:25.200 | force these lockdowns, you know, basking in the glow of whatever

00:45:29.180 | press release the the Centers for Disease Control would put

00:45:32.340 | out. And all of a sudden, the CDC just had to go back to the

00:45:34.540 | COVID. They just had to do a complete 180. And when they used

00:45:37.780 | to force 10 day quarantines, for these positive tests and people

00:45:41.740 | with COVID, they just backtrack to five. And why? Well, it's

00:45:44.860 | because there's nobody to work.

00:45:46.180 | And a Delta CEO asked for it last week. And now they're I

00:45:49.780 | don't know if that's exactly true. But the CDC ultimately

00:45:51.940 | really is just in the hands of big business. And so when big

00:45:54.100 | business needs these workers to come back, you know, they probably

00:45:58.060 | pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to have just

00:46:00.040 | had a positive test and stay home forever. The teachers

00:46:02.340 | unions, particularly, here we are.

00:46:04.500 | This is a really tough situation.

00:46:06.240 | Well, and look, and to be clear, the message that the media is

00:46:10.080 | going to deliver about COVID next year, it'll be the first

00:46:12.900 | time I agree with it. But it's completely dishonest to them to

00:46:17.220 | pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns. And they

00:46:19.920 | completely inflated the threat and created this whole hysteria.

00:46:23.340 | And next year, they're gonna have to back off. But also take

00:46:25.860 | into account sacks, that this new variant is much less deadly.

00:46:31.000 | So it would be logical for people to take a less severe

00:46:34.460 | action on it.

00:46:35.000 | Hold on, Jason. We don't know whether there are more variants

00:46:38.600 | to come in the future that could be much worse. But we also don't

00:46:41.120 | know what could be subsequently. So the point is, the CDC made a

00:46:44.780 | decision, broadly speaking, about everything. They're not

00:46:48.500 | making a decision about Omicron. They didn't say if you have

00:46:51.020 | Omicron, because not as if they really even test for it.

00:46:53.240 | I'm just talking to sacks.

00:46:54.860 | The reason they shortened this is because they didn't know what

00:46:57.980 | they were doing before. They don't fundamentally know what

00:47:00.780 | they're doing now. They're making best guesses. And the problem with these

00:47:04.420 | best guesses is that they're inaccurate. And it forces

00:47:07.640 | enormous amounts of waves of havoc. Every time they make a

00:47:10.780 | decision, I'm talking about I'm talking about sacks, this

00:47:12.520 | prediction that the media will flip a logical person, including

00:47:16.360 | everybody on this call, because of Omicron taking over for Delta

00:47:19.600 | and being a natural blocker, it would be the logical thing to

00:47:22.240 | do. So in defense of the media, which I'm not apt to do, it's

00:47:25.540 | logical for everybody to take a different approach right now,

00:47:27.700 | because Omicron is 40 times more contagious, it blocks Delta, and

00:47:31.060 | it's become the dominant variant.

00:47:32.320 | Jason Kuznicki: I think the right now the media is confused.

00:47:34.380 | I'm not sure which way to go. So you know, there's a high

00:47:36.780 | probability that they tack towards what sacks is saying. But

00:47:39.300 | if you read the New York Times article, it was through gritted

00:47:42.180 | teeth. They presented the fact that the CDC changed the guy.

00:47:45.180 | Yes, if you read that article, it was like pulling teeth.

00:47:47.820 | The media is the media. Can you just define that a little bit?

00:47:51.480 | It's everybody about Fox News. Come on. It's the elite prestige

00:47:55.320 | media. It's the New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC,

00:47:59.220 | on and on and on.

00:48:00.060 | Do you think there's a bigger audience with the aggregate of

00:48:02.520 | those publications you just mentioned?

00:48:04.340 | Or the direct to the consumer publications that are happening

00:48:09.200 | on YouTube?

00:48:09.560 | Of course, they're being disaggregated because of their

00:48:12.120 | dishonesty.

00:48:12.780 | So does it matter?

00:48:13.580 | Yeah, of course, it still matters because they still have

00:48:15.800 | a lot of influence they do.

00:48:17.220 | And no offense to everybody on YouTube. But we haven't gotten

00:48:20.820 | yet to the economic viability where enough people on YouTube

00:48:23.780 | can cover the broad spectrum of things that are important. And

00:48:26.840 | then the mechanisms and incentives to amplify it. So for

00:48:29.360 | example,

00:48:29.820 | that's a good point.

00:48:30.680 | We still need CNN, there was a woman on CNN, Nick, please post

00:48:34.300 | a clip that you could we posted in the group chat, talking about

00:48:37.560 | the incidence of suicide rates and depression in our children.

00:48:40.660 | So what happened when they were locked out of school for two

00:48:44.020 | years, okay, and I am not going to stop talking about this.

00:48:46.920 | Because this is the issue of our times. These are our kids.

00:48:51.220 | Well, I want to get to underreported stories as well,

00:48:55.240 | Jan.

00:48:55.780 | Oh, for me, I mean, I my kids hear me rant about this every

00:48:59.580 | day. So I may as well tell you guys it's the crushing impact

00:49:02.800 | that our COVID policies have had.

00:49:04.260 | They've had on young kids and children, by far, you know, the

00:49:08.160 | least serious risk for serious illness. But I mean, even

00:49:12.480 | teenagers, you know, a healthy teenager has a one in a million

00:49:16.000 | chance of getting in dot and dying from COVID, which is way

00:49:19.820 | lower than, you know, dying in a car wreck on a road trip, but

00:49:23.540 | they have suffered and sacrifice the most especially kids and

00:49:26.760 | underrepresented at risk communities. And now we have the

00:49:30.500 | Surgeon General saying there's a mental health crisis among our

00:49:34.200 | kids, the risk of suicide girl suicide attempts among girls now

00:49:38.700 | up 51% this year, black kids, nearly twice as likely as white

00:49:45.300 | kids to die by suicide. I mean, school closures, lockdowns,

00:49:49.440 | cancellation of sports, you couldn't even go on a

00:49:51.700 | playground in the DC area, without cops scurrying, getting

00:49:56.100 | shooting the kids off tremendous negative impact on kids. And

00:49:59.820 | it's been an afterthought. You know, it's it's it's hurt their

00:50:03.540 | dreams.

00:50:04.080 | They're future learning loss, risk of abuse, their mental

00:50:07.620 | health. And now with our knowledge, our vaccines, if our

00:50:11.900 | policies don't reflect a more measured and reasonable approach

00:50:16.080 | for our children, they will be paying for our generation's

00:50:19.840 | decisions, the rest of their lives. And that to me is the

00:50:23.760 | greatest underreported story of the past year.

00:50:25.860 | And I don't see it being talked about anywhere we talked about

00:50:29.100 | at first, you know, I posted that link about the decrease in

00:50:32.400 | IQ points. Yep. And then

00:50:33.960 | we started to talk about it there slowly. And now it's

00:50:36.120 | trickling into the mainstream media where they're forced to

00:50:38.420 | talk about who's impacted. It's not rich kids. It's not middle

00:50:41.040 | class kids. It's all of our fantastic clip. That CNN clip

00:50:44.880 | was fantastic ones who are the ones who get hit the hardest.

00:50:48.360 | They can't do supplemental. It's not just that. Don't don't

00:50:51.140 | minimize what this is. This is every child. Yes, it is

00:50:54.000 | proportionally affected. It is the data was that it's

00:50:57.860 | disproportionately affecting minority kids. Yes. And that

00:51:01.320 | could be because of the sociology of the parents. But

00:51:03.200 | Jason,

00:51:03.840 | you can also have rich parents. Okay, Jay. So just saying color

00:51:07.200 | parents. I'm saying all poor kids, white poor kids who are

00:51:09.660 | public school poor kids, they're getting hit the minority kids of

00:51:12.420 | all kinds. But frankly, the point is, it's all kids of all

00:51:15.480 | kinds. Okay, so we don't need to sub segment this to make this

00:51:18.960 | issue go away and seem smaller than it is. We have literally

00:51:21.940 | put 10s of millions of children. Yes, at risk because of our

00:51:25.640 | behavior. Yes.

00:51:26.880 | I'm agree with you. And I'm not trying to minimize it or make it

00:51:29.880 | a smaller issue. Your point is that none of the smaller audience

00:51:33.720 | is or smaller new media folks on YouTube or their podcasting have

00:51:39.060 | enough breadth to really make an impact by talking about this

00:51:41.760 | topic. Is that what you're saying that the mainstream media

00:51:44.220 | is needed to hit the broad base? No,

00:51:46.220 | what I'm saying is very specific. The people on YouTube

00:51:49.680 | cover what the people on YouTube want. Okay, the people on

00:51:52.520 | podcasts cover what they want. They're all very narrow,

00:51:55.020 | especially their narrow niche. Okay, yeah, there is no set of

00:51:58.140 | incentives that then threads that together. And then

00:52:01.340 | amplifies, right in the absence of those two

00:52:03.600 | mechanisms. Right. Those are software mechanics, and economic

00:52:07.000 | mechanics that need to get built in. What we lose is signal

00:52:10.680 | right that, in my opinion, right now over the last two weeks, is

00:52:14.520 | the single most important signal and it is nowhere except for

00:52:17.780 | this one clip on CNN, and the discussion that we had two weeks

00:52:21.100 | ago, because the YouTube I just want to be really clear on this

00:52:24.000 | because the YouTube is full of react videos, right? And so

00:52:27.220 | games, which is fine. And the consumer is talking about this

00:52:32.520 | issue and actually holding the conversation.

00:52:33.480 | Right. But the question is, is this really the right thing to

00:52:37.020 | do? Is this really the right thing to do? And how do we get to

00:52:40.620 | that point? And how do we get to that point? And how do we get to

00:52:43.380 | that point? Because if we don't, then we're going to lose our

00:52:45.900 | lives. And if we don't, then we're going to lose our lives.

00:52:48.020 | And we're going to lose our lives. So what do we do? We're

00:52:50.160 | going to lose our lives. And so we're going to lose our lives.

00:52:53.420 | And so we're going to lose our lives. And the reason why we're

00:52:56.360 | going to lose our lives is because we're going to lose our

00:52:58.360 | lives. And we're going to lose our lives. And we're going to

00:53:00.000 | lose our lives. And so we're going to lose our lives. And we're

00:53:01.360 | going to lose our lives. And we're going to lose our lives. And

00:53:03.360 | - I thought it was a CBS, it was a CBS whatever.

00:53:06.320 | Was a Sunday show.

00:53:07.420 | - But my point is these are the things that really matter

00:53:09.740 | and we haven't figured it out yet.

00:53:10.880 | - What you're saying,

00:53:11.720 | and I think it's a really important point

00:53:13.260 | is that as a YouTuber, as a podcaster,

00:53:15.260 | you pick your niche that you can hit home on

00:53:18.120 | and you hit home over and over every week.

00:53:20.480 | But no one says, I'm gonna broadly talk

00:53:22.940 | about the issues of our time and make sure.

00:53:25.540 | - No, no, that's not true.

00:53:26.420 | We do.

00:53:27.260 | - We do, but it's a small subset,

00:53:28.700 | but I think the bigger picture here is that --

00:53:31.280 | - Listen, there's more than a million people a week

00:53:32.960 | that listen to this.

00:53:34.100 | We've far exceeded MSNBC's average viewership.

00:53:37.740 | We're probably gonna pass most CNBC shows

00:53:41.340 | and some CNN shows by the end of next year.

00:53:44.080 | So we will do it, but there's not enough.

00:53:46.500 | There needs to be more of us.

00:53:47.500 | - We're an opinion show as much,

00:53:49.300 | we're not a traditional reporting show, right?

00:53:51.980 | In the sense that like go out,

00:53:53.160 | gather data and facts and present them,

00:53:54.740 | or do you disagree with that?

00:53:55.580 | - Not that they do that anyway.

00:53:56.420 | - I disagree with that. - Okay.

00:53:57.260 | - I disagree.

00:53:58.100 | I actually think we do a decent job

00:53:59.200 | of filtering for the truth.

00:54:01.080 | And the reason we're able to do that is

00:54:02.560 | because of our friendship,

00:54:03.400 | we can hold each other accountable

00:54:05.180 | and call out the bullshit when we see--

00:54:06.700 | - 'Cause we don't have incentives.

00:54:07.760 | We don't have anything to lose, right?

00:54:08.960 | - I don't think there's an incentive here for us.

00:54:10.720 | But I wanna build on something that Zach said.

00:54:12.740 | See, it is very hard for the media to hold this dissonance

00:54:16.420 | because they're saying everybody needs to shelter in place.

00:54:18.800 | COVID is this huge thing.

00:54:21.220 | They put the death count, they put the case counter up.

00:54:24.020 | They won't talk about deaths in ICU.

00:54:25.780 | They won't talk about who's getting COVID

00:54:27.700 | because they have an incentive to get more ratings

00:54:29.880 | through COVID or Trump, and they took that

00:54:32.160 | and then it's a narrative violation

00:54:34.980 | or it's cognitive dissonance if they say at the same time,

00:54:37.080 | everybody needs to shelter in place.

00:54:38.300 | This thing is really deadly,

00:54:39.940 | but we should send our kids to school.

00:54:41.440 | So they couldn't take that position, Zach and Chamath.

00:54:44.140 | They couldn't take the position that,

00:54:45.320 | oh, well, kids could go to school

00:54:46.700 | because that would go against,

00:54:47.980 | hey, everybody needs to shelter in place.

00:54:49.900 | And they picked, I think, COVID is this super deadly thing.

00:54:54.160 | Everybody has to shelter in place over children.

00:54:56.520 | - I think you're giving them way too much credit.

00:54:57.640 | I think what happened was they had a position to react

00:55:02.000 | to aggregate lost power and they took it.

00:55:06.440 | - That's real sinister.

00:55:07.280 | - And they did not think about the true consequences.

00:55:09.940 | And it may not have happened

00:55:11.220 | at any one individual reporter level,

00:55:13.940 | but when it ladders up to the editorial board

00:55:16.080 | and the decisions of the people who run the mass heads

00:55:18.680 | of these organizations, they made the decision

00:55:21.220 | that currying and organizing power was more important

00:55:25.280 | than shining a light to do the right thing.

00:55:27.680 | Specifically in this case,

00:55:28.880 | the thing that aggravates me the most is around our kids.

00:55:31.840 | I think they were going for ratings,

00:55:33.020 | but anyway, we can keep debating it.

00:55:35.040 | - Well, the one thing we can say for sure

00:55:36.360 | is they created a hysteria.

00:55:38.080 | Whether their motivation was ratings

00:55:40.240 | or a power grab or political advantage,

00:55:43.780 | there's probably all the above,

00:55:45.240 | but the bottom line is they wanted to create a hysteria

00:55:48.820 | and they've been pumping COVID fear porn

00:55:50.560 | into the population for the last two years.

00:55:53.280 | But my prediction, like I said,

00:55:54.820 | is that it all flips next year.

00:55:56.020 | Why?

00:55:56.860 | 'Cause there's an election

00:55:57.700 | and the way the media figures out

00:55:59.260 | what its narrative is gonna be is they start

00:56:01.680 | with the election result they want,

00:56:03.620 | and then they reverse engineer the narrative

00:56:06.180 | that they think's gonna help achieve that election result.

00:56:08.720 | And if it means contradicting what they said yesterday,

00:56:11.080 | they will memory hole what they said yesterday

00:56:13.260 | in order to get on board with the new narrative.

00:56:15.340 | That is what's gonna happen.

00:56:17.280 | - I do think you're right,

00:56:18.120 | but I think I just, I don't wanna lose this thread

00:56:20.180 | because this has nothing to do with COVID,

00:56:22.900 | meaning COVID was a symptom of this.

00:56:26.660 | But if you really thought

00:56:28.400 | that the organized mainstream media

00:56:31.520 | had the right to be,

00:56:33.180 | has a purpose to be on the right side of justice,

00:56:36.140 | where were they when school boards were stripping out

00:56:40.220 | advanced placement programs for kids?

00:56:42.600 | Or where were they when they were shutting kids out?

00:56:44.740 | Or where were they when they were engaged in eight hour-

00:56:46.740 | - They can't go against the unions.

00:56:47.680 | - Debates about whether a male can be on a committee

00:56:52.120 | because he's gay, but he's not black.

00:56:54.620 | I mean, these were the issues that stopped our children

00:56:58.620 | from literally walking into the classroom every day.

00:57:01.360 | And those stories were not told

00:57:04.180 | and they didn't happen just in one place,

00:57:06.740 | they happened all across the country.

00:57:08.840 | And this is where those folks had a responsibility

00:57:11.220 | because they also probably had kids

00:57:13.500 | and they didn't do a thing about it.

00:57:14.940 | That one issue for me really drives me crazy.

00:57:17.400 | - Let me ask a probing question here.

00:57:18.640 | We assume we're gonna get out of this pandemic in 2022,

00:57:23.160 | knock on wood, no more variants.

00:57:25.000 | What is the obligation and technique,

00:57:28.040 | the strategy to solve what we did to these kids?

00:57:31.200 | And I just wanna put it out there.

00:57:32.040 | We don't have to answer it now,

00:57:33.080 | but I think we could spend an episode just talking about that.

00:57:35.880 | - That's a very difficult question, J. Cal,

00:57:36.960 | that I think you need sociologists and psychologists

00:57:40.200 | and educators to help answer.

00:57:41.040 | - We also need entrepreneurship and ideas

00:57:42.960 | and we need to have a dialogue so we can bring them on.

00:57:44.700 | But if we're gonna spend all this money on build back better,

00:57:46.820 | how about we build back the 20 lost fucking IQ points

00:57:49.380 | that these kids have and then we do something

00:57:51.200 | about the depression and anxiety they have?

00:57:52.960 | - Hallelujah.

00:57:53.800 | - Jason, we're never gonna get there

00:57:55.000 | because the teachers unions won't even acknowledge

00:57:56.880 | that learning loss exists.

00:57:58.960 | The leaders-

00:57:59.780 | - Well, I think we need to break the teachers unions

00:58:01.040 | period full stop.

00:58:01.880 | - Yes, oh, let me make a prediction in that regard next year.

00:58:04.740 | There's gonna be a ballot initiative in California

00:58:07.880 | to the first school choice.

00:58:09.820 | And the way it's gonna work is that I think

00:58:12.940 | there's something like $13,000 spent per pupil in California.

00:58:17.520 | - That's right.

00:58:18.360 | - That's the right number.

00:58:19.200 | - There's gonna be a ballot initiative that says

00:58:20.760 | that any parent who wants to send their kid

00:58:23.580 | to an accredited school can get a voucher

00:58:26.000 | for $13,000 from the state.

00:58:27.700 | That's just gonna be on the ballot.

00:58:28.840 | - Competition, let's go.

00:58:30.520 | - I predict it.

00:58:30.880 | I predict it will be the big, big election in California

00:58:33.780 | and maybe the nation next year.

00:58:35.420 | And I think more than a hundred million will be spent

00:58:37.760 | on both sides of that thing.

00:58:39.260 | And I can't predict it's gonna win.

00:58:40.660 | I hope it does.

00:58:41.500 | - This is a topic worth fighting over.

00:58:43.120 | This is something important to fight over.

00:58:45.140 | - Yes. - Absolutely.

00:58:46.040 | - It's school choice.

00:58:46.860 | 'Cause you know what?

00:58:47.680 | - Absolutely.

00:58:48.520 | - These guys pulled the wool over everybody's eyes.

00:58:50.380 | They slipped them the Mickey, they hoodwinked them.

00:58:52.880 | You need choice.

00:58:54.920 | We know this as entrepreneurs.

00:58:56.200 | If there is no competition, things do not get better.

00:58:59.540 | These school unions

00:59:00.720 | are complacent and they are not fighting.

00:59:03.420 | - Let's make a resolution.

00:59:04.260 | Let's make a new year's resolution

00:59:05.100 | 'cause I think we all agree on this.

00:59:06.400 | I got approached about this ballot initiative.

00:59:08.760 | - Let's do it.

00:59:09.600 | - It's gonna happen.

00:59:10.700 | There's gonna be, like I said,

00:59:12.040 | a major ballot initiative next year

00:59:13.540 | for school choice in California.

00:59:15.180 | - Let's take some all in summit money

00:59:16.960 | and put it towards that. - Let's get behind it.

00:59:18.860 | - All in summit profits, we'll put towards this.

00:59:21.900 | - Yes, let's do it.

00:59:23.080 | - Let's pull that, I'm in, I'm in.

00:59:24.480 | Let's put some money behind this.

00:59:25.880 | - I wanna tell you just to more personalize this issue

00:59:28.400 | 'cause I really think a lot of people listening

00:59:30.560 | struggle with this.

00:59:32.420 | I entered the pandemic with rules.

00:59:36.040 | I had rules about devices.

00:59:37.540 | I had rules about how much time they could be online.

00:59:40.560 | I had rules around physical fitness, right?

00:59:43.860 | I had rules around diet and it all went out the window.

00:59:48.860 | And it became this thing where it was like,

00:59:51.620 | feed them the best they can.

00:59:53.380 | Sometimes they eat lunch with us.

00:59:55.000 | Sometimes they have to eat lunch by themselves

00:59:56.740 | 'cause I'm stuck on some stupid Zoom,

00:59:59.140 | back to back in these dumb,

01:00:00.400 | dumb meetings 'cause these kids aren't at school.

01:00:02.800 | Their only way to interact with their friends

01:00:05.400 | became video games like Fortnite

01:00:07.140 | where they could at least talk to their friends.

01:00:09.420 | But then it became an addiction

01:00:10.580 | where they were doing it for hours and hours.

01:00:12.680 | - Yep, gross.

01:00:13.520 | - And now I'm trying to,

01:00:14.940 | they gained weight because they weren't physically active.

01:00:17.680 | And I am trying to unwind as is Nat, as is my ex-wife.

01:00:22.680 | We're doing it together as a team.

01:00:24.440 | It is so hard.

01:00:26.200 | - Absolutely hard.

01:00:27.180 | - So hard.

01:00:28.020 | - These are addictions.

01:00:29.100 | - What about all these people

01:00:30.240 | who don't have the access to the resources

01:00:32.040 | that I have to try to unwind this?

01:00:33.440 | And then what happens is I send my kids to this school

01:00:36.600 | and oh, they may have a headache.

01:00:38.020 | Guess what?

01:00:38.860 | They get sent home.

01:00:39.680 | And then their brother and sister have to get sent home too

01:00:42.020 | until you can test and be COVID negative for a day in a row.

01:00:45.220 | And so there's yet another day of school loss.

01:00:47.280 | - Totally nuts.

01:00:48.520 | - And it's like,

01:00:49.360 | this is supposed to be one of the best schools

01:00:50.820 | in the country, it's not.

01:00:52.080 | - Totally nuts.

01:00:52.920 | - And then I think,

01:00:53.760 | what is every other school like then?

01:00:54.600 | If this is what my children have to deal with.

01:00:57.560 | - I think we should make this,

01:00:58.540 | we should have this as a major theme for 2020.

01:01:00.080 | - 2022 for the pod.

01:01:01.200 | I think it's a very important time.

01:01:02.040 | - We need to hold educators

01:01:03.980 | and teachers unions accountable.

01:01:06.460 | - Absolutely.

01:01:07.300 | - School boards accountable all around the country

01:01:09.340 | to fix this.

01:01:10.380 | This is your responsibility.

01:01:12.100 | You need to fix it with us.

01:01:12.940 | - Listen, we held police officers responsible

01:01:15.260 | in the last year or two.

01:01:16.100 | We've seen this policing being really

01:01:19.220 | like a spotlight put on it.

01:01:20.640 | Well, let's put that same spotlight on teachers

01:01:22.440 | and administrators and schools.

01:01:24.400 | - They'll never do it without competition.

01:01:27.540 | That's the only way to hold their feet.

01:01:29.920 | - And you know what?

01:01:30.760 | What I learned, Chamath, to build on what you said was,

01:01:33.960 | I just decided to get a teacher.

01:01:36.500 | And obviously I have the means to do it.

01:01:38.700 | I know most people don't.

01:01:39.780 | I certainly didn't have it growing up.

01:01:41.220 | We could barely afford to exist.

01:01:43.980 | But I think homeschooling is a viable option.

01:01:47.580 | So with that 13K, I can tell you five parents

01:01:50.780 | who are in an underprivileged area

01:01:53.060 | can take that five times 13 and take that,

01:01:55.880 | what is that, 65K and put it together.

01:01:59.760 | And for 65K, they can hire a teacher

01:02:02.640 | and they can do a better job with those parents

01:02:04.680 | and a teacher for those five kids.

01:02:06.260 | I guarantee it.

01:02:07.180 | So let's go to best performing asset of 2022.

01:02:10.680 | What do you got, Chamath?

01:02:12.500 | - This is simple.

01:02:13.480 | This will be battery metals.

01:02:16.920 | Lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite.

01:02:20.240 | Put them in a basket.

01:02:21.380 | You can be long these things.

01:02:22.520 | And I think you're gonna-

01:02:23.360 | - Okay, rapid fire sacks.

01:02:24.200 | What do you got?

01:02:25.040 | Best performing asset.

01:02:25.880 | - I just said series A venture

01:02:26.720 | because it's pretty unoriginal.

01:02:27.920 | It's what I do.

01:02:28.760 | I think growth got us there.

01:02:29.600 | It got a little bit overfunded and overheated.

01:02:31.740 | And I think the seed stage also,

01:02:34.360 | there were so many new seed investors.

01:02:37.180 | Again, it might've been partially

01:02:38.720 | because of excess liquidity.

01:02:40.300 | So series A is still the choke point.

01:02:42.220 | And I think it's still the best area to invest in.

01:02:46.160 | Innovation's not gonna stop.

01:02:47.360 | There's gonna be great series A investments next year.

01:02:49.520 | - I also picked early stage startups

01:02:52.160 | because that's where the magic happens.

01:02:54.740 | I picked early stage, like right before series A.

01:02:57.980 | I think SPACing,

01:02:59.440 | direct listings, raising money,

01:03:01.560 | people coming down to do the series Bs.

01:03:03.720 | All of that is creating a pull for more startups.

01:03:07.140 | And the founders are getting very sophisticated

01:03:09.620 | in terms of finding product market fit

01:03:12.100 | and scaling globally earlier.

01:03:15.900 | And that's what's creating these great big outcomes,

01:03:18.500 | whether it was Uber or Facebook,

01:03:19.900 | both figuring out and Airbnb how to go global quickly.

01:03:24.340 | So my choice for best performing asset of 2022

01:03:26.740 | is still early stage startups.

01:03:29.280 | - So, Mark Zuckerberg, what do you got?

01:03:30.400 | - Obviously best performing asset

01:03:32.220 | in terms of a multiples basis,

01:03:33.660 | you're never gonna beat seed stage investing, certainly.

01:03:37.000 | But I tried to highlight and continue

01:03:40.300 | my kind of contrarian bet

01:03:42.760 | that we're gonna see increased global conflict next year.

01:03:45.620 | Again, driven by incumbents trying to hold onto

01:03:47.980 | political office and increase inflation

01:03:50.840 | and fueling economic growth

01:03:52.160 | and the American response to China.

01:03:53.800 | So in a world of increased global conflict,

01:03:55.940 | I think assets that do really well are energy commodities,

01:03:59.120 | energy stocks.

01:03:59.960 | I recently made a big bet on energy stocks, defense stocks,

01:04:04.620 | and it used to be a gold.

01:04:06.580 | It could be the case that Bitcoin,

01:04:08.880 | sees a role as being a defensive position in portfolios

01:04:13.880 | in a world of war and conflict.

01:04:15.800 | So those are my kind of macro themes for asset.

01:04:19.900 | - Most anticipated trend of 2022.

01:04:22.480 | What do you got, Chamath?

01:04:23.760 | A trend you're anticipating in 2022.

01:04:26.020 | - Peer to peer payments,

01:04:27.700 | the destruction of traditional rail,

01:04:28.960 | it will come out of Africa.

01:04:31.880 | - Great.

01:04:32.720 | Sax, what do you got?

01:04:33.560 | - This is where I had the civil war

01:04:35.040 | between progressives and pragmatic liberals.

01:04:38.000 | So building on what Chamath said,

01:04:39.420 | you're already seeing this in the feud

01:04:40.840 | between London Breed and Chesa Boudin.

01:04:43.280 | That is really gonna, I think, blossom next year.

01:04:46.200 | We have not heard the last of that.

01:04:47.500 | You saw it in Philadelphia where the mayor,

01:04:50.640 | Michael Nutter took on Larry Krasner.

01:04:52.780 | I think you're gonna see it in New York City

01:04:54.760 | between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites.

01:04:58.800 | You also saw it in Washington, DC,

01:05:00.300 | where the progressives were blaming Manchin

01:05:03.240 | for losing the build back better.

01:05:05.980 | So this is a civil war that's gonna continue.

01:05:08.160 | And what Chamath predicted with AOC versus Schumer

01:05:11.500 | would certainly play into that.

01:05:13.480 | So it's grab the popcorn.

01:05:16.000 | It is the trend I'm anticipating the most.

01:05:18.380 | - All right, there you go.

01:05:19.840 | Do you anticipate a similar trend

01:05:21.180 | with like the alt-right Trumpians and DeSantis

01:05:24.540 | and that kind of thing breaking up?

01:05:25.980 | How do you see that playing out?

01:05:27.220 | - Not yet.

01:05:28.640 | Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022.

01:05:31.180 | So I actually think the Republican party

01:05:33.020 | is gonna be surprisingly united in 2022.

01:05:35.020 | I think where the trouble might come in

01:05:37.780 | is when we have a Republican primary in 2023.

01:05:40.940 | And especially if Trump runs,

01:05:42.740 | then all hell's gonna break loose.

01:05:44.760 | So yeah.

01:05:46.080 | - Who are the two people who would be most viable

01:05:48.080 | against Trump in that 2020, 2023?

01:05:50.100 | Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz?

01:05:52.580 | - Nikki Haley.

01:05:54.000 | - Nikki Haley?

01:05:54.900 | That's gonna be fireworks.

01:05:56.480 | Freeberg, what do you got?

01:05:57.880 | Anticipated trend?

01:05:58.480 | - My biggest anticipated trend for 2022

01:06:01.700 | is gonna be a gold rush in biotech

01:06:04.100 | into what I think will become the cover story

01:06:07.820 | on magazines throughout the year

01:06:10.140 | that humans have discovered the fountain of youth.

01:06:12.780 | And this will arise from these investments

01:06:15.900 | in what are called Yamanaka factor-based

01:06:17.840 | cell reprogramming methods.

01:06:19.460 | I've talked about this on the pod in the past.

01:06:21.260 | A few years ago, scientists identified that four chemicals

01:06:26.080 | could trigger gene expression in cells and get

01:06:28.320 | the cells to revert to being stem cells.

01:06:31.120 | And more recently demonstrated that using lower amounts

01:06:34.940 | of those chemicals and other what are called kind of

01:06:36.960 | epigenetic factors can trigger partial cell reprogramming,

01:06:41.700 | which causes cells in the body to act youthful.

01:06:44.720 | As a result of those discoveries,

01:06:46.640 | an absolute gold rush is now underway.

01:06:50.040 | More recently, Yuri Milner, Jeff Bezos, Arch,

01:06:52.860 | and others put a billion dollars to seed a new company called

01:06:55.640 | Altos Labs to pursue therapeutics in this area.

01:06:58.160 | Google has individually funded a company called Calico,

01:07:01.840 | led by Art Levinson, the former founder and CEO of Genentech.

01:07:05.660 | And just recently, Blake Byers and Brian Armstrong

01:07:09.400 | announced their new company called New Limit

01:07:11.140 | with $100 million of their own personal capital.

01:07:13.500 | All of these companies are pursuing the same effort,

01:07:17.220 | which is basically causing cells to be youthful,

01:07:21.060 | to regenerate in a youthful way.

01:07:23.400 | And as a result, you see kind of organs and systems in the body

01:07:28.000 | act more healthily.

01:07:29.680 | And there will be magazine covers and 60 minutes articles,

01:07:34.100 | stories and all sorts of stuff will start to happen in 2022

01:07:36.460 | saying, "Oh my gosh."

01:07:37.900 | Because the amount of money that's gone in in this year

01:07:39.900 | is going to cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get

01:07:42.200 | published about next year.

01:07:43.660 | And when that starts to happen and the media and the PR cycle

01:07:45.860 | start to kick up, you'll see this become the year of

01:07:48.460 | Yamanaka factor based reprogramming.

01:07:50.840 | And everyone's saying it's gonna be the biggest gold rush

01:07:53.600 | in biotech since recombinant DNA was used by Genentech in the

01:07:57.840 | 80s and 90s.

01:07:58.840 | All right.

01:07:59.840 | And I had most anticipated trend of 2022 being the

01:08:02.840 | accredited investor laws are going to change and evolve.

01:08:05.840 | And it might just be you take a test and you're now accredited.

01:08:09.840 | It doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make $200,000 a year.

01:08:13.840 | And a legal crypto framework is going to happen, I think,

01:08:17.840 | at the same time.

01:08:18.840 | So those regulations combined are going to empower really interesting

01:08:21.840 | capital formation on a global basis,

01:08:24.840 | whether it's running a syndicate with everybody in the world,

01:08:27.680 | including non accredited investors or Dows or those two things merging,

01:08:32.680 | or as Balaji is talking about, you know, a cap table over here that's

01:08:36.680 | mirrored on a blockchain at the same time and people being able to trade

01:08:40.680 | their interest in Chamath's fund or Sax's fund or one of my syndicates

01:08:44.680 | with tokens on the internet.

01:08:46.680 | And that could become a major unlock where, you know, if you were in...

01:08:51.680 | I don't have a fund.

01:08:52.680 | I run a meager family office.

01:08:54.680 | Well, if you were in your earlier funds and somebody and there was still stuff

01:08:57.520 | trickling to social capital three, the people who have that could sell it back

01:09:01.520 | to you or sell it to each other if they wanted to get liquidity.

01:09:04.520 | And that's going to be super interesting, especially if it can happen just globally

01:09:08.520 | where some person in China decides they want to have access to US funds.

01:09:14.520 | RLPs could just start selling if it was structured that way.

01:09:18.520 | Most anticipated film, TV series, media, yada yada for 2020-22.

01:09:24.520 | What do you got?

01:09:25.520 | Yellowstone season nine.

01:09:27.360 | I watched the first two episodes.

01:09:30.360 | It's really great.

01:09:31.360 | I mean, you forget what a great actor...

01:09:34.360 | What's his name is?

01:09:36.360 | Kevin Costner.

01:09:37.360 | Kevin Costner is a great actor.

01:09:39.360 | Yes.

01:09:40.360 | Yellowstone is great.

01:09:41.360 | I'll be watching next season.

01:09:42.360 | But what I had down here is Thor Ragnarok.

01:09:45.360 | The writer director Taika Waititi is back.

01:09:47.360 | If you saw the last Thor movie...

01:09:50.360 | Ragnarok.

01:09:51.360 | Ragnarok.

01:09:52.360 | Ragnarok was the last one.

01:09:53.360 | The new one is called Thor: Love and Thunder.

01:09:55.360 | Yeah.

01:09:56.360 | And you know, I'm not sure if it's the best or the worst.

01:09:57.200 | You know, Thor went from being, I think, one of the most boring Marvel characters in the first two movies to...

01:10:02.200 | Totally.

01:10:03.200 | ...being one of the funniest and...

01:10:04.200 | Yeah.

01:10:05.200 | ...you know, most fun in his last movie.

01:10:07.200 | So I think that sequel will be really good.

01:10:09.200 | And then the other one is they're doing a prequel show for Game of Thrones called House of the Dragon.

01:10:14.200 | I'm going to have to watch that.

01:10:16.200 | And then probably the Star Wars show I'm looking forward to most would be the Obi-Wan Kenobi show with Ewan McGregor.

01:10:23.200 | Yes.

01:10:24.200 | And Anakin.

01:10:25.200 | It's based on Clone Wars.

01:10:26.200 | Yes.

01:10:27.200 | And I had as well the Obi-Wan show, the Boba Fett show, and the Mandalorian shows all coming back are going to be absolutely bonkers.

01:10:34.200 | And then there's also this token series that's coming out, the prequel, I think, that Amazon is spending a billion dollars on.

01:10:42.200 | And I think that's landing in 2022.

01:10:45.200 | What do you got, Chamath?

01:10:46.200 | It is the All In Summit in Miami and the birth of All In Media.

01:10:55.200 | So I think that we, by the end of 2022, will have published content, written content, not necessarily by us, but other forms of media interaction that get the truth out to a large swath of humanity.

01:11:13.200 | Here we go.

01:11:14.200 | Is this moving beyond just a couple of besties doing a podcast during lockdown?

01:11:19.200 | Yeah.

01:11:20.200 | What?

01:11:21.200 | What?

01:11:22.200 | Wait, so All In Media, is that a new acronym?

01:11:23.200 | AIM?

01:11:24.200 | AIM.

01:11:25.200 | What are we doing?

01:11:26.200 | Should we buy a cable channel and just go 24 hours a day?

01:11:27.200 | AIM is the truth.

01:11:28.200 | AIM Media.

01:11:29.200 | AIM Media.

01:11:30.200 | Okay, there you go.

01:11:31.200 | I didn't even know.

01:11:32.200 | This is news to the rest of us, but Chamath is building the media, bro.

01:11:33.200 | Okay, here we go.

01:11:34.200 | Who are we going to hire?

01:11:35.200 | Tucker.

01:11:36.200 | There'll be no shortage of folks who will want to come out of the woodwork to work with us on this.

01:11:37.200 | And I think the goal should just be to make sure we figure out what the real North Star is so that we never deviate.

01:11:38.200 | And part of the reason that we're doing this is because we're going to be doing this for a long time.

01:11:39.200 | And we're going to be doing this for a long time.

01:11:40.200 | And we're going to be doing this for a long time.

01:11:41.200 | There'll be no shortage of folks who will wanna

01:11:44.220 | come out of the woodwork to work with us on this.

01:11:47.200 | And I think the goal should just be to make sure we figure

01:11:50.620 | out what the real north star is so that we never deviate.

01:11:53.520 | And part of the biggest thing that we did, guys,

01:11:56.740 | was not trying to hustle for some few shekels here or there.

01:12:01.220 | Which was stupid. Like J Cal wanted to.

01:12:02.780 | Yeah.

01:12:03.600 | What are you talking about?

01:12:04.920 | J Cal, we're gonna talk in a minute

01:12:06.500 | about the plan for the summer.

01:12:09.040 | The purity of not wrapping this thing with crappy ads

01:12:11.040 | and all kinds of nonsense is we've never lost our way.

01:12:13.760 | We don't need some stupid deal

01:12:15.400 | for some crappy media company.

01:12:18.320 | We all have independent ways in which we can monetize

01:12:21.280 | our lives and our hard work.

01:12:22.460 | And so we should come to this to always tell the truth.

01:12:25.040 | I think that that's one of the,

01:12:27.020 | I will say one of the great innovations and decisions

01:12:29.400 | that you championed was not putting ads on it.

01:12:31.720 | I hear it all the time for people.

01:12:33.280 | I mean- We're saving you

01:12:34.120 | from yourself, J Cal.

01:12:35.140 | It's an interesting idea where you-

01:12:35.980 | Well, whatever, I mean, media's advertising basis.

01:12:37.920 | I don't think we'd have influenced a show-

01:12:38.760 | If you have a media business that's not driven

01:12:40.880 | by advertising dollars and not driven by greater,

01:12:44.240 | by trying to maximize page views and clicks and visits,

01:12:49.080 | then it completely changes the equation of what's possible.

01:12:52.140 | I think this was part of the idea

01:12:53.280 | of what publicly funded media was supposed to be,

01:12:55.900 | but it obviously got maybe a little bit too far afield.

01:12:59.960 | Yeah, it was just too-

01:13:02.040 | Well, then they started adding ads.

01:13:03.220 | I don't know if you remember that.

01:13:04.060 | They lost some funding and they're like,

01:13:05.320 | "Okay, we're gonna go for sponsorships."

01:13:06.740 | They're not ads, they're sponsorships.

01:13:08.120 | So you're saying we're the new PBS.

01:13:10.720 | No, it's something different.

01:13:11.780 | I mean, this is- We do this without any expectation

01:13:15.360 | of financial reward.

01:13:16.360 | We do it because we enjoy it.

01:13:17.360 | And so- Well, except for you, J Cal, you've been-

01:13:19.400 | No, I mean, I have other things that make money.

01:13:21.180 | Thank you very much.

01:13:22.180 | J Cal's doing pretty fucking good right now.

01:13:24.180 | Hey, Pogba Bear!

01:13:25.180 | Pogba Bear!

01:13:26.180 | J Cal's doing okay right now.

01:13:27.180 | All right, you're clubbing the baby seal now.

01:13:28.180 | Let's get it, yeah.

01:13:29.180 | 900 members at thesyndicate.com.

01:13:30.180 | Boop!

01:13:31.180 | Plug.

01:13:32.180 | Boop!

01:13:33.180 | Sass Syndicate just did our first deal.

01:13:34.180 | Boop!

01:13:35.180 | Sass Syndicate just did our first deal.

01:13:36.180 | Boop!

01:13:37.180 | Sass Syndicate just did our first deal.

01:13:38.180 | Boop!

01:13:39.180 | I didn't know we were doing this category.

01:13:40.820 | I will promise to watch some TV.

01:13:42.820 | I will doubt and Abby season 16 of Doubt and Abby.

01:13:45.820 | He doesn't watch TV.

01:13:46.820 | He doesn't have any.

01:13:47.820 | What do you got?

01:13:48.820 | I would like to watch reruns of Doctor Who.

01:13:50.660 | What BBC show that nobody watches are you gonna recommend?

01:13:53.720 | Doesn't matter.

01:13:54.720 | I mean, come on.

01:13:55.720 | What show from Finland with subtitles are-

01:13:57.780 | I don't know.

01:13:58.780 | You know, I spend a lot of time watching like esoteric videos and stuff I find on YouTube.

01:14:04.100 | I really think it's so interesting.

01:14:05.360 | It's such a different way of consuming media.

01:14:07.780 | Just tell us what video game you're playing.

01:14:09.020 | Wes Anderson is putting out a porno.

01:14:11.140 | Oh, I was watching this Paul Thomas Anderson and it's so similar to Target.

01:14:15.260 | It's like looking at a painting.

01:14:16.260 | And a greasy gulch shot will be of a vernicular going up and down the mountain.

01:14:19.260 | I felt like I was in the Louvre watching this movie.

01:14:21.460 | All right.

01:14:22.460 | What video game are you playing?

01:14:23.460 | I called, uh, I called Freeburg on the phone to talk him off a ledge when he was going

01:14:26.520 | crazy on the group chat.

01:14:27.900 | And he's like, I can't talk him on a video game.

01:14:30.220 | What video game is that?

01:14:31.220 | I was actually playing a video game by Annapurna Interactive, which is Larry Ellison's daughter's

01:14:35.420 | um, media production company.

01:14:36.860 | And apparently, I didn't know this.

01:14:37.860 | They had a video game already.

01:14:38.860 | They had a video game arm and the video games are, and the game I was playing was called

01:14:42.300 | Maquette.

01:14:43.720 | And um, you kind of, you kind of have this like interesting movie, like poetic experience

01:14:48.540 | as you play the game.

01:14:49.540 | So it's not really just designed to be action packed.

01:14:50.540 | And I don't know.

01:14:51.540 | I thought it was a very interesting new way of, um, entertaining oneself.

01:14:55.540 | Okay, we can move on.

01:14:57.840 | It was highly stimulating.

01:14:59.800 | She made a simulation of a biology lab and uh, you actually get different beaker sizes

01:15:04.020 | and you have different sub proteins that you start with.

01:15:06.260 | You get to buy all of these lab equipment.

01:15:08.700 | You want, but it needs a virtual currency.

01:15:10.980 | It's kind of like a simulation.

01:15:11.980 | It's like the Sims, but with-

01:15:12.980 | In order to get that virtual currency, you must first mine it.

01:15:15.980 | And the way that you mine is by solving mathematical equations.

01:15:18.380 | I made a cruelty free fish device dish, uh, in my laboratory because of the genocide of

01:15:23.820 | fish.

01:15:24.820 | That was a little controversial take last week.

01:15:27.620 | I got DMs from people.

01:15:30.620 | That was a spicy take, Freeburg.

01:15:31.940 | Did you get any blow back from that spicy take last week?

01:15:34.560 | The spiciest of-

01:15:35.560 | I did.

01:15:36.560 | I did.

01:15:37.560 | The spiciest of all time.

01:15:39.420 | I got DMs from people.

01:15:40.420 | I sent me a note directly.

01:15:41.420 | Was it really?

01:15:42.420 | Cause I, people are like you're equating-

01:15:43.420 | Well, I think the co- well, here's the thing.

01:15:44.420 | The comment I made that I think really triggered people was I said that, um, animal agriculture

01:15:47.840 | is worse than human slavery and, uh, maybe I'll just address it now real quick.

01:15:53.020 | Yeah.

01:15:54.020 | You know, I think the point of view that people took away from that was that I diminished,

01:15:59.480 | you know, the pain and the, the resonance, uh, in today's kind of socioeconomic context

01:16:05.220 | of, uh, human slavery.

01:16:07.400 | Particularly recently in America.

01:16:09.020 | Um, and that wasn't my intention at all.

01:16:11.300 | Uh,

01:16:12.300 | Clearly not your intention.

01:16:13.300 | Yeah.

01:16:14.300 | What I'm trying to highlight is, you know, first of all, human slavery has been around

01:16:16.400 | as long as humans have been around, right?

01:16:17.800 | For 10,000 years back to ancient Egypt, the enslavement of humans, the removal of opportunity

01:16:24.340 | and freedom granted to every living being, um, is, is certainly manifest in the form

01:16:29.680 | of human slavery.

01:16:30.680 | And we kind of take it as a very acute pain point.

01:16:32.940 | What I was highlighting is every year, over a hundred billion land-based animals are going

01:16:37.240 | to be killed.

01:16:38.240 | They're killed and they're born and put in, in chains and put in jails and then murdered

01:16:44.240 | and eaten by humans as routine.

01:16:48.180 | And we don't like lift our head up and recognize just how serious and how skilled this, this,

01:16:52.640 | um, you know, this behavior is.

01:16:54.860 | The industrialization of this process, uh, is really abhorrent and there's videos you

01:16:59.060 | can watch.

01:17:00.060 | And I think when you watch them, you'll recognize just how painful it is.

01:17:02.140 | This is delicious.

01:17:03.140 | I knew it was coming.

01:17:04.140 | Don't do it Chamath.

01:17:05.140 | No, but I do think that Chamath is a very important.

01:17:06.080 | Yeah.

01:17:07.080 | You know, Chamath voice in this is, is really the voice that's kept us from ever becoming

01:17:11.140 | an issue because it's not human.

01:17:12.720 | We don't kind of pay attention to it.

01:17:14.320 | And I'm just trying to highlight that there is something that is at such an extraordinary

01:17:17.560 | scale that we don't pay attention to that one day we'll wake up and we'll be like, Oh

01:17:20.900 | my God, how do we miss that?

01:17:21.900 | I have complete agreement with you, Freeberg.

01:17:23.220 | If you look at all life being precious and you say the life of a cow, the life of a dog,

01:17:29.820 | the life of a human, these are all lives.

01:17:32.640 | The scale of suffering is, uh, greater.

01:17:36.920 | And these animals, these animals can problem solve.

01:17:41.660 | They can feel emotion.

01:17:43.020 | They can recognize, they can recognize things happening to them and to their loved ones

01:17:47.640 | and their family members.

01:17:48.920 | And I think that in the context of that, to cause pain and suffering on those animals

01:17:52.480 | and on those creatures at the scale that we do is something that's just mind blowing to

01:17:56.740 | me.

01:17:57.740 | And I expect that one day we will wake up and be like, I cannot believe we allowed our

01:18:00.840 | society to do that.

01:18:01.920 | But I do think that we need to solve Chamath's problem, which is how do you make something

01:18:05.360 | that's frigging delicious?

01:18:06.760 | How do you make it cheaper?

01:18:07.760 | Hold on a second.

01:18:08.760 | It's not a problem.

01:18:09.760 | Like my, my perspective is I understand where you're coming from.

01:18:12.100 | I respect your point of view, but here's my point of view, which is we evolved to superior

01:18:17.680 | superiority in an evolutionary process that was not preordained.

01:18:23.140 | Okay.

01:18:24.200 | And we are now in a position where we are allowed to consume things that we choose.

01:18:28.960 | Now there is also a claim that you could make that, you know, what a tiger or a lion should

01:18:34.720 | not be attacking and killing a gazelle.

01:18:36.600 | Because you know what that's causing suffering to the gazelle or blah, blah, blah.

01:18:39.760 | At the end of the day, how we choose to go and consume the things that we need for sustenance

01:18:44.420 | is a choice that we can make.

01:18:45.840 | And there are probably better choices we can make over time.

01:18:48.740 | But at the end of the day, I think that this was a reasonable evolution of humanity and

01:18:53.600 | human ingenuity and intellect.

01:18:55.540 | And I don't feel guilty about that.

01:18:58.220 | I don't weigh the suffering of animals the same way I weigh the suffering of human beings.

01:19:01.400 | I don't.

01:19:02.400 | And I would argue that when we were apes in the jungle, and we didn't have the choice,

01:19:06.440 | I would wholeheartedly agree with you.

01:19:08.400 | But today, we are a people that do have the choice.

01:19:11.740 | What choice do we have?

01:19:12.740 | And it's because we have the choice to not eat meat and still survive and still be happy,

01:19:16.900 | that we can make a better choice.

01:19:17.900 | But it doesn't taste good.

01:19:18.940 | Like there's a part of my soul, I'll just be very honest with you.

01:19:21.300 | And I agree.

01:19:22.300 | And that's why I think we need to solve that problem.

01:19:24.540 | And that's why I believe-

01:19:25.760 | It's not a problem.

01:19:27.640 | If you made an alternative for you that tasted good, and was as affordable as the alternative,

01:19:32.380 | which is actually killing an animal, you would choose it.

01:19:34.780 | And we haven't given you that solution yet.

01:19:36.280 | And when I say we, I mean, call it the techno food people.

01:19:40.620 | But there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area.

01:19:43.180 | And we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal,

01:19:48.080 | but will be made in a lab that looks and tastes identical.

01:19:49.080 | When will we have a steak or a piece of sushi?

01:19:51.660 | Just give us a year over on your list.

01:19:53.040 | You'll have a piece of sushi in three years.

01:19:55.500 | You will have...

01:19:56.500 | Right.

01:19:57.500 | You will be able to go taste chicken next year.

01:19:59.440 | It'll be very, very expensive.

01:20:01.220 | Okay.

01:20:02.220 | But cell-based meat will be available.

01:20:04.120 | And then let's get to the-

01:20:05.120 | I think at a commercial scale within the next year.

01:20:06.120 | We're going to get our steak.

01:20:09.040 | That's really what it's about.

01:20:10.040 | David, my commitment to you is I will do a taste test whenever you say...

01:20:13.440 | You call the...

01:20:14.440 | You pick the place, the time.

01:20:15.440 | Totally.

01:20:16.440 | I will show up.

01:20:17.440 | And if it's better, I will never eat meat again.

01:20:19.880 | Okay.

01:20:20.880 | We're not ready for that.

01:20:21.880 | And that's a great commitment.

01:20:22.880 | All right.

01:20:23.880 | Yeah.

01:20:24.880 | And I am similar in the commitment.

01:20:25.880 | But in the meantime...

01:20:26.880 | Oh, don't tell him.

01:20:27.880 | It's not tasty.

01:20:28.880 | It's distasteful.

01:20:29.880 | But I will say, Friedberg, if you're going to have a party and it's only vegan, you're

01:20:35.960 | going to have to put that on the invite.

01:20:38.000 | Because I came thinking you were going to feed me.

01:20:39.200 | JKL came to my party.

01:20:40.200 | There was no meat.

01:20:41.200 | He was really upset.

01:20:42.200 | He was going around my party being like, "What the hell is this?

01:20:44.720 | There's no meat in this party.

01:20:45.720 | What am I doing here?"

01:20:46.720 | I went into the kitchen.

01:20:47.720 | I said, "Can you make me a hamburger?"

01:20:48.720 | The woman from wherever-

01:20:49.720 | I made...

01:20:50.720 | Napa was like, "I've never touched meat in 30 years."

01:20:52.720 | Whatever.

01:20:53.720 | I made the most incredible ribeye on Christmas Eve.

01:20:56.460 | Oh my God.

01:20:57.460 | Ribeye.

01:20:58.460 | All right, everybody.

01:20:59.460 | For the dictator himself, Chamath Palihapitiya with great hair, a touch of gray, never looked

01:21:04.960 | better.

01:21:05.960 | The consultant of science, David Friedberg, and Tucker Carlson's bestie, GOP front runner,

01:21:12.360 | David Sachs, super spreading COVID.

01:21:15.960 | Super spreading the truth.

01:21:16.960 | Super spreading the truth.

01:21:17.960 | Super spreading the truth.

01:21:18.960 | David Sachs from an undisclosed bestie hideaway, which we all know but we won't say.

01:21:26.620 | I'm Jake Howe, and we'll see you in 2022.

01:21:28.960 | Bye-bye.

01:21:29.960 | It's been a great year.

01:21:30.960 | Bye-bye.

01:21:31.960 | We'll let your winners ride.

01:21:32.960 | Rain man, David Sachs.

01:21:33.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:34.960 | And instead, we open source it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it.

01:21:35.960 | Love you, Wesley.

01:21:36.960 | I'm the queen of kinwa.

01:21:37.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:38.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:39.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:40.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:41.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:42.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:43.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:44.960 | I'm going all in.

01:21:45.960 | Besties are gone.

01:21:46.960 | Goal 13.

01:21:47.960 | That is my dog taking a notice in your driveway.

01:21:48.960 | Sachs.

01:21:49.960 | Oh, man.

01:21:50.960 | I'm the dasher.

01:21:51.960 | We meet you at the end of the year.

01:21:52.960 | Oh, man.

01:21:53.960 | I'm the best.

01:21:54.960 | We're going all in.

01:21:55.960 | We're going all in.

01:21:56.960 | We're going all in.

01:21:57.960 | They're just like sexy, sexy.

01:21:58.960 | We're not a bitch, we're just like a bunch of...

01:22:00.700 | We should all just get a room and have one big huge orgy, because they're all just useless.

01:22:03.400 | It's like this sexual tension, but we just need to release it.

01:22:05.400 | Wet your beat, wet your beat.

01:22:06.400 | We need to get merch.

01:22:07.400 | Bitches are fat.

01:22:08.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:09.400 | I'm doing all it all.

01:22:10.400 | I'm doing all it all.

01:22:11.400 | We're just like sexy, sexy.

01:22:12.400 | We're not a bitch, we're just like a bunch of...

01:22:13.400 | What?

01:22:14.400 | What?

01:22:15.400 | We need to get merch.

01:22:16.400 | Bitches are fat.

01:22:17.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:18.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:19.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:20.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:21.400 | I'm doing all it.

01:22:22.400 | I'm going all in

01:22:28.140 | .

E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

Chapters