back to index#AIS: MP Materials CEO James Litinsky on rare earths, supply chain, and energy independence
Chapters
0:0 Chamath intros MP Materials CEO James Litinsky
1:13 James gives a talk on supply chain, energy independence, acquiring the Mountain Pass mine and starting MP Materials
12:48 Bestie Q&A with James: US falling behind in rare earth mining, risk compliance, energy independence breeding geopolitical leverage, mining lithium in the ocean vs Earth's crust, and more
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Okay, so I wanted to introduce somebody. This is an incredible story of a turnaround of a business 00:00:09.100 |
that impacts a lot of us in America, if you care about climate change, etc. His name is Jim 00:00:14.940 |
Latinsky, and here's a guy who had all the success in the world running a hedge fund successfully. 00:00:22.020 |
A business called Mollicorp goes into bankruptcy. He basically puts his entire fund in it, 00:00:29.340 |
brings it out of bankruptcy, manages to build one of the first mines that was completely cleared. 00:00:35.460 |
You heard what Elon said about California in California, that mines some of these rare 00:00:40.640 |
earths and critical metals that we need to make permanent magnets that we use in electric motors 00:00:44.760 |
on the front lines of climate change, building factories now in South Carolina with GM, etc. 00:00:51.840 |
So Jim's just going to walk you through a few things, and we're going to talk about some climate 00:00:58.680 |
Hey, everyone. So I'm Jim. I used to run a hedge fund, and now I'm an accidental industrialist. 00:01:20.680 |
So I want to take you through that journey. And then while I do that, it'll, you know, we'll go 00:01:28.340 |
through the process. And then I'm going to talk to you about some of the things that I've done. 00:01:28.660 |
And then I'll talk to you about some of the problems that I've done. 00:01:28.720 |
And then I'll talk to you about some of the problems that I'd like to solve. 00:01:29.840 |
Just to provide some context. So I think if we think about a lot of the things that just came up 00:01:35.560 |
with respect to the economy, it's been about a decade plus since the global financial crisis. 00:01:42.620 |
And in that decade plus, we've been in this environment where there's been essentially a full-on 00:01:49.060 |
boom, a lot of money printing, and essentially a very low or negative cost of capital in growth, 00:01:55.900 |
in technology, right? And what we've seen is that the economy has been in a very low or negative cost 00:01:58.640 |
of capital in growth, in technology, right? And so we've seen that the economy has been in a very low or negative cost of capital in growth, 00:01:58.700 |
and so we've seen that the economy has been in a very low or negative cost of capital in growth, 00:01:58.700 |
and now I guess we're on the beginning stages of the aftermath of experiencing that economic enema, 00:02:04.660 |
as was just discussed. But we have just been through this period of over a decade where there's been, 00:02:12.200 |
you know, all this money that has gone to growth. And what has happened during that time simultaneously 00:02:18.940 |
is the real economy has been starved. You haven't seen, I doubt many of you have friends that are investing in new steel mills or aluminum mills or nickel mines, 00:02:28.200 |
maybe nickel mines, but you haven't seen, I doubt many of you have friends that are investing in new steel mills or aluminum mills or nickel mines, 00:02:28.620 |
but you haven't seen, I doubt many of you have friends that are investing in new steel mills or nickel mines, 00:02:28.680 |
now, right? But while the real economy has been starved, actually, interestingly, we haven't noticed it so much, 00:02:36.780 |
one, because we're just starting to scale into electrification, but China's made investments. 00:02:43.700 |
So pretty much all of the incremental steel and aluminum and commodities capacity in the world over the last decade 00:02:51.840 |
has come online because, you know, China has led the way. And, you know, as an aside, interestingly, 00:02:58.600 |
about 80% of the aluminum and 80% of the steel production in China is done with coal. 00:03:04.840 |
So not only has this been, you know, not only have they sort of taken over the real stuff, 00:03:10.960 |
and this isn't about, you know, wherever you are on the spectrum of, you know, 00:03:17.520 |
are they just a really tough competitor or is this, you know, some kind of economic World War III? 00:03:22.220 |
It doesn't matter. What matters is, is that the incremental stuff in the real world has really, 00:03:28.580 |
in a way, has been led by China. And so when we think about what's now happening in the world as we electrify, 00:03:39.700 |
I think one good thing about going after Elon is I don't have to really explain this chart. 00:03:45.980 |
We are electrifying. And as we electrify, what a lot of people might not fully understand is that while all this real stuff has come online, 00:03:58.560 |
the Chinese have actually moved downstream very intelligently. 00:04:02.400 |
And so when we think about a lot of people may have heard of China 2025, 00:04:06.480 |
but a lot of people probably haven't heard of China 2035, 00:04:10.740 |
which is the current MO, which is to move downstream into standardization. 00:04:15.260 |
And so actually, when we look around the world today, four of the top 10 OEMs are Chinese by global battery electric share. 00:04:28.540 |
when we think about the single largest private employer in the country, the auto industry, 00:04:31.860 |
we think about all these industries that are mineral intensive. 00:04:36.640 |
The Chinese are actually have moved downstream. 00:04:39.360 |
And these are these are very mineral intensive industries. 00:04:42.860 |
So what this slide shows is as we go from a fossil fuel world to an electrification world, 00:04:50.060 |
which, you know, we all I think everyone in this room believes is is fake complete. 00:04:54.240 |
And this actually excludes steel and electric. 00:04:58.520 |
Just in the content of copper, nickel, lithium, and then what I focus on, rare earths, and 00:05:07.880 |
some of these other things, there's seven times as much content. 00:05:12.280 |
And so, when we think about the past of the fossil-fuel-driving geopolitical gamesmanship 00:05:19.720 |
and power in the world, the future is about minerals. 00:05:28.220 |
So, and I'm going to get to my journey as an accidental industrialist in a minute, but 00:05:34.900 |
what you can see here is rare earths, they're kind of, the way to think about it is sort 00:05:39.700 |
of like a young cousin of semiconductors to the EV business. 00:05:45.120 |
So regardless of how electrification happens, regardless of battery chemistry, how that 00:05:52.780 |
energy gets to a motor, that motor moves via magnets, and so this industry is expected 00:05:58.920 |
And it's not just EVs, it's wind turbines, drones, robots. 00:06:06.020 |
Can anyone actually guess where this robot is from? 00:06:09.280 |
This is actually from Short Circuit, Johnny #5, but I'm hoping Elon will get us a better 00:06:16.080 |
But when we think about all these industries, magnetics, it's really powerful. 00:06:21.500 |
So that's where I'm focused, and this is just an example of the commodity needs, as 00:06:28.620 |
If we take those projections of what's going to happen in electrification, just in my space, 00:06:34.320 |
so this is NDPR, this is the stuff that we make, the input into magnetics, you can see 00:06:43.500 |
And just moving on, look at my space, here's the challenge. 00:06:47.680 |
So outside of us, this entire supply chain is essentially domiciled in China. 00:06:57.320 |
But what happens when the largest manufacturers in the world are all competing for what I 00:07:02.420 |
showed you on that prior slide, a shortage of supply, and we've seen lots of headlines, 00:07:07.120 |
whether it's the semiconductor issue, or just today there was a headline that Rivian 00:07:14.840 |
All of these things where we're seeing the shortages in the supply chain that are flowing 00:07:19.080 |
through, if there's an allocation of materials, and the materials are controlled, then we 00:07:27.020 |
don't have to worry about what's happening in the supply chain. 00:07:29.100 |
So what happens when the supply chain is being dominated by China, or another geopolitical 00:07:31.320 |
rival, which downstream businesses do we think are going to get those materials? 00:07:34.940 |
And this is actually now an existential issue for all of us. 00:07:43.280 |
This is the mine Chamath mentioned that we bought this out of bankruptcy in my fund. 00:07:48.700 |
So going back about five years ago, this site went bankrupt. 00:07:58.780 |
And nobody believed that we could compete against China. 00:08:03.740 |
I showed up in the Delaware courthouse steps. 00:08:07.100 |
I mean, it was literally like out of a movie. 00:08:08.600 |
There were other creditors pushing to send this thing into bankruptcy. 00:08:11.940 |
And you look at this thing, and you're like, wait, this is one of the most valuable rare 00:08:28.060 |
And we're not going to be able to do anything about it. 00:21:21.580 |
So I think you actually said it perfectly well in the lead-in, which is just anything 00:21:28.240 |
And so yeah, all of it, lithium, copper, nickel, steel, aluminum, all of these areas that have 00:21:35.580 |
been starved, the cost of capital is just so high across the board that if you can come 00:21:41.080 |
up with solutions to deliver the shortages, and again, I'm not saying the next three months 00:21:45.540 |
we could have a brutal recession for six months, but we see the long-term five, 10-year trend. 00:21:51.580 |
In this space, you're looking in the right direction. 00:21:54.200 |
It's a wind at your back as opposed to, and again, I'm not taking a view, but to come 00:22:00.600 |
It's a huge wind at your back relative to a headwind. 00:22:03.840 |
Could you get your mind operational in today's political environment, do you think? 00:22:09.900 |
Like if you had to start from scratch or if you found a new thing in Nevada or wherever 00:22:17.980 |
And that's the challenge is that it takes, to get any of these things, it takes a decade. 00:22:21.580 |
It takes, if you have all of the capital in place, all of the human capital, all that, 00:22:26.440 |
just the going through that process to build it, the materials cost. 00:22:34.060 |
And I think that what we do environmentally is so unique that I think we could get it 00:22:39.880 |
And I think frankly, it's a, you guys were talking in the last session about we need 00:22:46.420 |
This is a big time area where we need to come together. 00:22:51.580 |
And the panelists should say, "Okay, I accept that we need this stuff. 00:22:55.700 |
I accept that we don't want it to be only made in Russia and China." 00:22:59.520 |
And they should loosen up on some of the permitting stuff. 00:23:02.640 |
And I think the people who are just like, "Drill, drill, drill, mine, mine, mine, don't 00:23:06.040 |
care," need to accept that we need to have really tough standards. 00:23:09.980 |
And I think we should have some kind of grand bargain and it could be tax policy focused 00:23:15.200 |
But there needs to be some kind of coming together in our country to recognize that 00:23:24.900 |
The people in the EU, people in the United States, they want the energy. 00:23:29.720 |
They're complaining about the expense of even a modest increase in energy costs, 10%, 20%, 00:23:38.020 |
They will complain about it and they will not allow fracking in their country, but they're 00:23:42.760 |
more than willing to let Russia frack for it. 00:23:44.880 |
They don't want the cobalt coming out of the ground in California. 00:23:48.820 |
They're more than willing to let 15 year olds deal with it. 00:23:55.760 |
And there is intellectually dishonest, it's hypocrisy. 00:23:58.500 |
And I think we have to own the fact that we want to live in large houses and we want to 00:24:03.340 |
blow the air conditioner on some ridiculous setting. 00:24:06.800 |
America's homes are three times bigger than other homes. 00:24:12.020 |
There's a massive deposit of lithium in Nevada, which would be enough to basically feed Tesla 00:24:21.580 |
This would get probably somewhere between one and one and a half million cars, pure 00:24:28.460 |
And they were completely permitted by the BLM, the Bureau of Land Management. 00:24:35.060 |
And there was a lawsuit that was filed and it's still wrangling its way through the federal 00:24:40.160 |
And what it is, is a claim that there is an upper wood grouse that could be endangered 00:24:48.900 |
They have yet to find an actual upper wood grouse in the... 00:24:55.580 |
And so the problem is that we've now delayed two years. 00:24:58.020 |
It could get resolved this year, but it could be another two or three years, which means 00:25:01.240 |
the lithium isn't actually available until 2030. 00:25:04.160 |
I mean, while global warming continues to happen. 00:25:07.020 |
Second story is that just yesterday, the California, the city of Costa Mesa rejected a bid to build 00:25:13.360 |
an electrolysis facility to create a hundred million liters of clean water every single 00:25:26.340 |
Because they're going to lose some jellyfish or something. 00:25:36.940 |
And so to your point, when the rubber meets the road, these unfortunate decisions get 00:25:42.440 |
made and there's no way to, you know, sort of calm top down. 00:25:49.260 |
If Americans really want to talk about conservation... 00:25:51.580 |
First of all, 30 minute, there's nothing wrong with a 30 minute shower. 00:25:54.580 |
Listen, I wasn't calling you out specifically, but since you unclothed yourself, it's gratuitous, 00:26:02.700 |
And my entire argument is that we're going to, we will answer this question as a country 00:26:09.040 |
And the point about four of the 10 largest auto OEMs in the world are now Chinese companies. 00:26:17.060 |
And so we can, we can keep kicking the can or we'll face a crisis. 00:26:21.580 |
Are you beloved by like, can you kind of like beeline and just cut through the nonsense 00:26:27.460 |
Well, I think, I think that it's fair to say that the local officials are very happy with 00:26:32.720 |
what we've done with what we've achieved in South Carolina, right? 00:26:36.300 |
In Fort Worth, Texas, the magnetics facility, you know, we have some partnerships with DOD, 00:26:41.520 |
the president announced those GM facilities, the GM things in Texas, Texas, Texas. 00:26:46.780 |
So I think that there is frankly support from both sides of the aisle for what we're doing. 00:26:51.580 |
I think that we're doing a lot of work on the executive orders on the rare earth magnetics 00:26:53.280 |
industry specifically, both in the Trump administration and in the Biden administration. 00:26:57.800 |
So I think what we're doing is hopefully nonpartisan. 00:27:01.480 |
And frankly, I think all of this should be, and that's, you know, the point about the 00:27:05.260 |
grand bargain, but even you raise a great point about just all of this stuff that it's, 00:27:11.440 |
you know, there's so much pushback and we need to, we need to figure out a way to get 00:27:14.280 |
past that because this stuff has to, has to get made. 00:27:21.580 |
I am not an investment company, but we do appreciate you giving us the education and 00:27:25.800 |
we do need to be independent from communist countries and really have the supply chain 00:27:33.000 |
So we appreciate the hard work for America and for freedom. 00:27:41.580 |
And instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy.