back to indexNick Bostrom: Superintelligence | AI Podcast Clips
Chapters
0:0 What is Superintelligence
2:10 AI existential risk
3:47 Near term vs long term
5:39 Killer app
8:17 Intelligence expulsion
9:36 Humans are fallible
10:44 We lose our specialness
12:18 What would happen in a posthuman world
14:28 The scale of intelligence
16:43 Learning ability
19:44 Multiple Value Systems
21:25 First instinct
00:00:09.340 |
- Yeah, not to get too stuck with the definitional question. 00:00:19.800 |
to learn from experience, to plan, to reason, 00:00:29.840 |
Is consciousness mixed up into that or is it- 00:00:31.760 |
- Well, I think it could be fairly intelligent, 00:00:42.160 |
- Yeah, that would be like something that was much more- 00:00:50.400 |
So if we talk about general superintelligence, 00:00:53.920 |
it would be much faster learner be able to reason 00:00:57.840 |
much better, make plans that are more effective 00:01:05.720 |
- In terms of, as we turn our eye to the idea 00:01:08.880 |
of sort of existential threats from superintelligence, 00:01:16.240 |
in the physical world or can it be digital only? 00:01:19.520 |
Sort of, we think of our general intelligence as us humans, 00:01:23.960 |
as an intelligence that's associated with the body 00:01:28.880 |
that's able to affect the world directly with physically. 00:01:32.760 |
- I mean, digital only is perfectly fine, I think. 00:01:34.960 |
I mean, it's physical in the sense that obviously 00:01:40.840 |
- But it's capability to affect the world sort of- 00:01:43.640 |
- Could be very strong even if it has a limited 00:01:46.480 |
set of actuators, if it can type text on the screen 00:01:51.360 |
or something like that, that would be, I think, ample. 00:01:54.480 |
- So in terms of the concerns of existential threat of AI, 00:01:59.480 |
how can an AI system that's in the digital world 00:02:07.000 |
and what are the attack vectors for a digital system? 00:02:10.520 |
- Well, I mean, I guess maybe to take one step back, 00:02:18.880 |
from machine intelligence, including superintelligence. 00:02:22.040 |
And I wanna stress that because some of my writing 00:02:29.440 |
And when I wrote the book "Superintelligence," 00:02:31.800 |
at that point, I felt that there was a kind of neglect 00:02:42.280 |
a more granular understanding of where the pitfalls are 00:02:46.200 |
I think that since the book came out in 2014, 00:02:51.680 |
there has been a much wider recognition of that, 00:02:58.800 |
say, AI alignment techniques and so on and so forth. 00:03:01.400 |
So I'd like, yeah, I think now it's important 00:03:11.000 |
- And there's a little bit of a neglect now on the upside, 00:03:14.560 |
which is, I mean, if you look at, I was talking to a friend, 00:03:17.560 |
if you look at the amount of information that is available, 00:03:22.480 |
about the positive possibilities of general intelligence, 00:03:37.680 |
- What are, can you linger on that for a little bit? 00:03:39.720 |
What are some, to you, possible big positive impacts 00:03:51.560 |
these two different contexts of thinking about AI 00:03:54.680 |
and AI impacts, the kind of near-term and long-term, 00:03:57.960 |
if you want, both of which I think are legitimate things 00:04:01.800 |
to think about, and people should discuss both of them, 00:04:06.800 |
but they are different, and they often get mixed up, 00:04:18.880 |
and so I think as long as we keep them apart, 00:04:27.280 |
- Can you clarify just the two things we're talking about, 00:04:36.680 |
but say the things I wrote about in this book, 00:04:45.680 |
with, I don't know, algorithmic discrimination, 00:04:48.680 |
or even things, self-driving cars and drones and stuff, 00:04:54.120 |
And then, of course, you could imagine some medium-term 00:04:58.880 |
where they kind of overlap and one evolves into the other. 00:05:28.000 |
- Yeah, I mean, I guess it's a little hard to articulate 00:05:33.320 |
has a lot of problems as it currently stands. 00:05:43.720 |
like, a friendly aligned superintelligence working on. 00:06:08.320 |
I think AI, especially artificial general intelligence, 00:06:12.960 |
is really the ultimate general purpose technology. 00:06:18.360 |
this one area where it will have a big impact, 00:06:26.320 |
in all fields where human creativity and intelligence 00:06:48.280 |
if we just had more resources and cooler tech, 00:06:58.800 |
just by having more technological capability. 00:07:11.480 |
Now, again, that doesn't mean I'm like thinking, 00:07:22.760 |
but I mean, those are perfectly consistent views to hold, 00:07:40.680 |
you know, when you start to think about that leap 00:07:46.880 |
like for me, sort of building machine learning systems today 00:07:53.640 |
but there's some intuition of exponential growth, 00:07:55.880 |
of exponential improvement, of intelligence explosion. 00:08:07.680 |
about the possibility of a intelligence explosion, 00:08:32.000 |
where progress in AI becomes extremely rapid. 00:08:48.600 |
like it starts to break down when you look too closely at it 00:08:51.680 |
and just how explosive does something have to be 00:08:54.400 |
for it to be called an intelligence explosion? 00:08:57.640 |
Like, does it have to be like overnight literally, 00:09:04.680 |
if you plotted the opinions of different people 00:09:08.160 |
in the world, I guess that would be somewhat more 00:09:10.720 |
probability towards the intelligence explosion scenario 00:09:14.080 |
than probably the average AI researcher, I guess. 00:09:18.200 |
- So, and then the other part of the intelligence explosion, 00:09:31.760 |
to proceed beyond it to get to super intelligence? 00:09:35.760 |
- Yeah, that seems, I mean, as much as any of these things 00:09:58.200 |
But it does seem, as far as I'm judging things, 00:10:03.680 |
that it seems very unlikely that that would be a ceiling 00:10:20.120 |
to create a system that's beyond our intelligence. 00:10:27.120 |
like, how does that possibility make you feel? 00:10:33.240 |
it feels like there's a line beyond which it steps, 00:10:39.760 |
and therefore it feels like a step where we lose control. 00:10:52.920 |
are working towards, making sure that we could ultimately 00:10:56.880 |
project higher levels of problem-solving ability 00:11:00.640 |
while still making sure that they are aligned, 00:11:03.520 |
like they are in the service of human values. 00:11:16.760 |
I mean, to some extent, I've lived with this for so long, 00:11:28.440 |
- And so, I actually misspoke, I didn't mean control. 00:11:33.440 |
I meant, because the control problem is an interesting thing 00:11:36.680 |
and I think the hope is, at least we should be able 00:11:40.320 |
to maintain control over systems that are smarter than us, 00:12:00.600 |
that humans aren't very good at dealing with. 00:12:04.480 |
I mean, I value my intelligence as a human being. 00:12:14.600 |
I mean, you don't see that as such a fundamental-- 00:12:17.800 |
- Yeah, I think, yes, a lot, I think it would be small. 00:12:21.920 |
I mean, I think there are already a lot of things out there 00:12:25.120 |
that are, I mean, certainly if you think the universe 00:12:31.680 |
or that just naturally have brains the size of beach balls 00:12:35.480 |
and are like completely leaving us in the dust. 00:12:45.600 |
what would happen in a kind of post-human world, 00:12:50.520 |
like how much day to day would these super intelligences 00:13:01.360 |
where it would be more like a background thing 00:13:05.120 |
but you wouldn't, like there wouldn't be this intrusive 00:13:19.400 |
You don't wanna be the dumbest kid in your class, 00:13:28.220 |
where we have infrastructure that is in some sense 00:13:34.940 |
I mean, it's a little bit like say the scientific community 00:13:42.040 |
but I mean, obviously it's gotta be like way more capacious 00:13:48.200 |
So in some sense, there is this mind like thing 00:13:51.280 |
already out there that's just vastly more intelligent 00:14:09.320 |
- I mean, there's already Google and Twitter and Facebook, 00:14:12.600 |
these recommender systems that are the basic fabric 00:14:21.600 |
I mean, do you think of the collective intelligence 00:14:35.960 |
The kind of vagueness and indeterminacy of those concepts 00:14:41.560 |
starts to dominate how you would answer that question. 00:15:02.680 |
that you have a kind of string, a word string key, 00:15:09.120 |
but a vast set of other things it can't even do at all, 00:15:22.880 |
and then like radically subhuman in all other domains. 00:15:27.880 |
Same with a chess, like are just a simple computer 00:15:31.040 |
that can multiply really large numbers, right? 00:15:33.000 |
So it's gonna have this like one spike of super intelligence 00:15:36.040 |
and then a kind of a zero level of capability 00:15:40.920 |
- Yeah, I don't necessarily think the generalness, 00:15:45.440 |
but I could sort of, it's a gray area and it's a feeling, 00:16:01.680 |
well, you could say, well, these are both just board game, 00:16:07.860 |
But there's something about the learning, the self play-- 00:16:18.440 |
In the same way, Google is much closer to Deep Blue currently 00:16:33.080 |
but being able to learn a lot without the constraints 00:16:36.640 |
of being heavily constrained by human interaction, 00:16:46.400 |
seems to be an important facet of general intelligence. 00:16:52.480 |
some new domain that you haven't seen before, 00:16:55.840 |
and you weren't specifically pre-programmed for, 00:17:08.720 |
And in fact, I mean, systems like alpha zero can learn, 00:17:14.560 |
in fact, probably beat Deep Blue in chess and so forth. 00:17:29.600 |
that have even more general purpose learning ability, 00:17:31.560 |
it might also trigger an even stronger intuition 00:17:33.520 |
that they are actually starting to get smart. 00:17:38.320 |
what do you think a utopia looks like with AGI systems? 00:17:42.520 |
Is it the neural link, brain-computer interface world, 00:17:48.160 |
where we're kind of really closely interlinked 00:17:52.400 |
Is it possibly where AGI systems replace us completely 00:17:56.840 |
while maintaining the values and the consciousness? 00:18:01.840 |
Is it something like it's a completely invisible fabric, 00:18:04.720 |
like you mentioned, a society where it's just AIDS 00:18:23.800 |
but I think there are some different observations 00:18:28.120 |
One is if this scenario actually did come to pass, 00:18:32.400 |
it would open up this vast space of possible modes of being. 00:18:37.400 |
On one hand, material and resource constraints 00:18:44.920 |
So there would be a lot of, a big pie, let's say, right? 00:19:02.080 |
and options space than we have ever had access to 00:19:13.120 |
a fairly fundamental rethink of what ultimately we value, 00:19:18.120 |
like think things through more from first principles. 00:19:20.640 |
The context would be so different from the familiar 00:19:22.480 |
that we could have just take what we've always been doing 00:19:25.000 |
and then like, oh, well, we have this cleaning robot 00:19:37.760 |
go back to the first principles of what is the meaning 00:19:40.400 |
of life, what is happiness, what is fulfillment? 00:19:44.160 |
And then also connected to this large space of resources 00:19:51.960 |
And I think something we should aim for is to do well 00:20:02.720 |
That is, we wouldn't have to choose only one value criterion 00:20:08.880 |
and say, we're gonna do something that scores really high 00:20:29.120 |
And it's like a lot of pleasure, that's good. 00:20:36.320 |
I think to some significant, not unlimited sense, 00:20:39.800 |
but a significant sense, it would be possible to do very well 00:20:44.960 |
Like maybe you could get like 98% of the best 00:20:49.960 |
according to several criteria at the same time, 00:20:52.760 |
given this great expansion of the option space. 00:20:59.560 |
- So have competing value systems, competing criteria 00:21:07.960 |
versus Republican, there seems to be this always 00:21:10.400 |
multiple parties that are useful for our progress in society, 00:21:14.320 |
even though it might seem dysfunctional inside the moment, 00:21:20.000 |
seems to be beneficial for, I guess, a balance of power. 00:21:25.000 |
- So that's, yeah, not exactly what I have in mind 00:21:31.360 |
But that if you had the chance to do something 00:21:36.760 |
that scored well on several different metrics, 00:21:50.960 |
let's first try to do very well by all of them. 00:21:53.240 |
Then it might be that you can't get 100% of all, 00:21:55.880 |
and you would have to then like have the hard conversation 00:22:04.920 |
But you say, maybe it's not such a bad trade-off. 00:22:11.040 |
in which at least some of the constraints would be removed. 00:22:17.560 |
- So there's probably still be trade-offs in the end. 00:22:20.680 |
we at least take advantage of this abundance. 00:22:29.440 |
I think in this kind of frame of mind of generosity