E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

00:00:00.000 | I found out about a free bird purchase that is just you were

00:00:05.000 | there tomorrow. You heard what he bought?

00:00:06.440 | What did I buy pickles the quinoa? What was no no,

00:00:10.080 | sacks. You missed this because you're you are a sunbird now and

00:00:13.840 | the rest of us are snowbirds over the holidays. But the three

00:00:16.840 | of us have been hanging out skiing having dinner for a

00:00:20.160 | couple of weeks. And we had a little wives dinner. And one of

00:00:23.640 | the wives was complaining about the suit free birds purchasing

00:00:27.120 | suits. Oh my god. So free burgers. Do you have pictures of

00:00:31.480 | the radiation suits? I don't have pictures of the radiation

00:00:34.040 | you're trying to find radiation suits. I thought you're gonna

00:00:37.600 | talk about like Brioni suits or something. No radiation suits.

00:00:41.520 | You know how you went into full scale panic mode and you during

00:00:44.280 | COVID and you had your whole outfit. Your hazmat suit.

00:00:48.520 | Friedberg just because he's panicked about nuclear

00:00:54.480 | proliferation has bought suits for his entire family. 1000s of

00:01:01.200 | dollars of radiation suits and nuclear fallout. And he bought

00:01:06.400 | one for his dog. Dog. Sorry, dogs for Monty and Daisy. I

00:01:12.680 | should send you guys the photo of the bunker. I mean, I've got

00:01:16.040 | it all taken care of. You need a bunker first, right? I think

00:01:18.560 | that's underway as well. How do you get to your bunker free

00:01:20.960 | Burke with with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their

00:01:23.440 | families? You'll be protecting them with the guns that were

00:01:28.520 | stolen from us. At least you'll have the 1000s of pickles you've

00:01:33.600 | made. No, Friedberg was a prepper. Did you know this?

00:01:39.360 | Saks? Saks has a little prepper. Saks Friedberg was howling

00:01:43.040 | because he was so mad. He made like 1000s and 1000s of pickles.

00:01:46.960 | And nobody would eat them including himself. Because they

00:01:49.800 | were so terrible. You literally bought a radiation pod for your

00:01:53.400 | dogs. Yeah, so they that's their air filter on the right, so

00:01:57.600 | that they don't breathe in the nuclear fallout cloud.

00:02:00.040 | I like the prepping. Thank you, sir. Yeah, it's good. You guys

00:02:04.280 | don't understand. There's a reason evolution happens in

00:02:07.160 | moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium. There's a

00:02:09.560 | massive event. And certain, you know, things survive. And then

00:02:14.080 | that becomes the proliferant species going forward. This is

00:02:16.960 | the moment. Be ready. You're saying paranoid, rich white guys

00:02:20.200 | are going to survive the nuclear Holocaust.

00:02:22.320 | That's what you're saying. Paranoid, rich white tech guys

00:02:26.280 | are going to make it to the other side. Got it. How

00:02:28.640 | exciting.

00:02:29.240 | What a great future. What a future.

00:02:32.240 | Like we'd rather die.

00:02:34.840 | It touches my erogenous zones. Just the idea of it when Saks

00:02:38.600 | and Friedberg are the only two reproducting males left.

00:02:41.160 | Can you imagine the gene pool? It's like literally this is like

00:02:45.880 | some dystopian science fiction. This is like a Black Mirror

00:02:48.440 | episode.

00:02:49.000 | You'll have the pastiest preppers in the world.

00:02:51.440 | pasty preppers to inherit the earth.

00:02:54.920 | Let your winners ride.

00:02:59.400 | Rain Man David Saks.

00:03:02.280 | Welcome back to the program, everybody. It is the new year,

00:03:16.680 | but it's the same squad. Your four besties are here. Chamath

00:03:20.320 | Palihapitiya. He is now not just the dictator, he is chairman

00:03:25.320 | dictator calling in from the slopes with his beautiful Bert

00:03:29.320 | sweater. That's a great sweater. Major turtleneck going on there.

00:03:32.600 | And we have David Friedberg also looks like he's on the slopes.

00:03:37.120 | And he is wearing his Oh, hollow his Oh, hollow, not Mahalo. Oh,

00:03:40.960 | hollow hat is branding here on the all in podcast sneaking a

00:03:45.280 | little branding for his new startup that he is the CEO of

00:03:48.920 | David Saks is with us, of course, and he cleaned up, he

00:03:52.640 | cleaned up a little bit here, the hair was getting out of

00:03:54.480 | control. We had a lot of commentary on the hair.

00:03:56.720 | Apparently you cleaned up shop.

00:03:58.240 | I pivoted from the the Jefferson to the gecko.

00:04:01.320 | Alright, so everybody loves when we do our predictions. And so

00:04:05.080 | we're going to start off 2024. Big Year for us. We have a lot

00:04:08.360 | going on here and all in and we're going to just do some

00:04:10.400 | predictions here. So let's get started. We're going to kick it

00:04:13.840 | off with sacks doing his prediction for the biggest

00:04:18.280 | political winner in 2024. Saks, who do you have? What's your

00:04:21.840 | prediction for who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024? We're

00:04:25.520 | bracing?

00:04:25.960 | Yeah, well, you're gonna love this Jake out. But my prediction

00:04:29.400 | for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin.

00:04:32.720 | 2023. Last year was the year that Putin turned it all around.

00:04:38.760 | He stabilized his economy after the West attempt to sanction him

00:04:43.720 | to his knees tried to collapse his economy. We issued a basic

00:04:47.680 | arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. He

00:04:52.360 | has gained the upper hand militarily in Ukraine. I think

00:04:55.680 | that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine,

00:05:00.720 | potentially making new gains. I think that the the stalemate

00:05:05.680 | narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be

00:05:10.600 | exposed as a lie. I think the Russians are in fact winning

00:05:13.760 | that war. And what you're seeing is that his successful stance

00:05:18.720 | against the West in Ukraine has only made him more influential

00:05:22.600 | throughout the global south and in the BRICS countries,

00:05:25.760 | countries that oppose American dominance and dollar hegemony

00:05:31.720 | see him as the man with a plan as a bit of a conquering hero.

00:05:35.800 | And I think as project Ukraine falls apart in 2024, it's only

00:05:41.880 | going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner.

00:05:44.720 | Saks, did you see that Argentina said they're not going to join

00:05:48.520 | BRICS and that some have said that was a bit of a blowback on

00:05:53.320 | the BRICS effort to end dollar hegemony? And do you think it's

00:05:57.360 | really impactful? Or is it just a one off?

00:05:59.120 | I think it's a one off. I mean, melee one in a big surprise

00:06:04.040 | there because the country's economy has been such a basket

00:06:06.920 | case, and he is very pro American, pro Israel, pro West.

00:06:11.640 | And so he has distance Argentina from from BRICS. But I think

00:06:17.160 | that's a little bit of a one off. The larger issue is that

00:06:20.080 | the whole global south now is really resisting the collective

00:06:26.640 | West in a number of different ways. And so our influence and

00:06:30.560 | dominance is slowly declining across the world. And there's

00:06:34.800 | many examples of that. So we can get into it throughout the show.

00:06:37.920 | Just to be clear with the audience, you're not rooting for

00:06:40.400 | Putin here. You're just predicting he's the biggest

00:06:43.240 | winner.

00:06:43.600 | I'm not rooting for it to happen. I've got other answers

00:06:47.560 | here that I think are negatives. As well. I wish we had made a

00:06:52.640 | peace deal and avoided this whole Ukraine war. I think that

00:06:55.200 | was a gigantic mistake by the West.

00:06:56.960 | Yeah. So yeah, we've been clear about that. Yeah.

00:06:58.720 | We have put Putin in this position to be the victor,

00:07:03.720 | because we plunged into a war without thinking it through. And

00:07:08.200 | the truth is, we can't give Ukraine enough aid to have them

00:07:12.040 | actually win this war. So we've contributed massively to Putin

00:07:16.440 | being this victor. And you know, it was Fiona Hill, who is a

00:07:20.600 | Russia hawk in the foreign policy establishment, who

00:07:23.680 | pointed out in a speech, I think, over the past year, that

00:07:28.000 | the global south is using this Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel

00:07:33.800 | against the West. So in the same way that we're using Ukraine as

00:07:36.440 | a proxy against Russia, she said the global south was using

00:07:39.760 | Russia as a proxy against the West, as a way to basically

00:07:43.760 | dethrone American hegemony all over the world. And that's a

00:07:48.200 | very negative trend.

00:07:49.040 | So if you had Ukraine and Putin in under seven minutes for this

00:07:53.200 | episode, you bet the under you win. Freeberg, who's your

00:07:56.160 | prediction for the biggest political winner in politics for

00:07:59.040 | 2024?

00:07:59.720 | I'm going to go with independent third party in the US, we saw

00:08:03.240 | the stats last week, I think we reviewed them with a poll that

00:08:06.240 | showed that 60 plus percent of people are claiming interest in

00:08:09.160 | a third party or an independent effort outside of the

00:08:12.680 | traditional damn Republican split. And if you look at in

00:08:18.760 | 1992, Ross Perot got 18 to 19% of the general election vote.

00:08:25.920 | RFK Jr is obviously running on an independent ticket this year,

00:08:28.760 | we'll see if he can even get on the ballot and a bunch of

00:08:30.840 | states. But I think that whether it's him, or the interest in

00:08:35.800 | developing a third party in the US that there may be a big

00:08:39.440 | winner this year that challenges the traditional two party split

00:08:44.520 | in this country.

00:08:45.080 | All right. And Chamath, who do you got for your biggest

00:08:47.720 | political winner in 2020?

00:08:50.160 | Independent centrists, I think this election starts the

00:08:53.120 | breakdown of the two party system. Same, same. Look at

00:08:56.320 | that. RFK this week actually just got added to the Utah

00:08:58.840 | ballot. I think that this could be the most meaningful, long

00:09:02.200 | lasting change that we see in American politics is this is

00:09:05.120 | amazing from from the RFK candidacy.

00:09:07.080 | I mean, how many people do you guys know that were Republicans

00:09:10.320 | that don't want to be Republicans anymore were

00:09:11.800 | Democrats and don't want to be Democrats anymore. It's really

00:09:13.960 | like most so many people I know more of the latter. I know more

00:09:17.840 | of the latter actually than I do. Right? Yeah, that's true,

00:09:19.920 | too. Yeah, that's what I think. I think I think Republicans are

00:09:22.400 | still firmly established. I think people are embarrassed to

00:09:24.920 | be a Democrat right now.

00:09:25.960 | Interestingly, I also picked the dark horse presidential

00:09:29.640 | candidate who will be treasonous and corrupt, aka Trump and

00:09:33.040 | Biden, I think we're going to actually see some dark horse

00:09:35.360 | candidate maybe beat these two. And the rematch that nobody

00:09:39.880 | wanted. Wow, that's crazy. Three of the four of us pick the same

00:09:42.880 | thing. No coordination beforehand. Yes. And this is

00:09:45.680 | done blind folks. And Nick has my notes here. So he can he can

00:09:49.960 | vouch for me here. And just to go back and look at 2023. What we

00:09:54.360 | predicted, Sachs, you said Asian American college applicants,

00:09:57.840 | we're going to be your biggest winner in politics that actually

00:10:00.040 | turned out to be pretty prescient, right?

00:10:02.080 | Yeah, I mean, I was betting on court cases overruling

00:10:06.200 | affirmative action. And that's exactly what happened is that

00:10:08.760 | Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action and college

00:10:11.800 | admissions, saying that it unlawfully discriminated against

00:10:15.360 | Asian Americans. So yeah, that worked out exactly right.

00:10:18.040 | So that's a great prediction. I think Chamath you had perhaps

00:10:21.760 | the best prediction of even the entire show last year, your

00:10:26.360 | spread trade long Nikki and short to Santa's that paid off

00:10:29.200 | in spades. Well done there. Freeberg you had MBS and Saudi

00:10:33.560 | have the most important year in their modern era, actually

00:10:36.800 | pretty pressing as well. They seem to be I mean, if you look

00:10:39.000 | at let me just post this, this was this journal article that

00:10:41.240 | came out in March, if you guys remember this when Saudi was

00:10:43.960 | considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for sales of

00:10:47.800 | oil to China. And then in August, the US ramped up

00:10:52.000 | pressure on Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars, not you on. Let

00:10:55.600 | me just pull this up for you guys, which was obviously the

00:10:59.040 | follow on story where the US tried to counter the actions,

00:11:03.040 | which is continuing, obviously today, where there's a back and

00:11:06.560 | forth. And Saudi, as I mentioned last week, I think is in this

00:11:09.080 | really interesting central pivot position between all of these

00:11:12.920 | competing major nuclear powers and fighting for influence. And

00:11:18.080 | this is a big story, and it will continue to be this year.

00:11:20.720 | And modernizing society, that photo of the fist bump, I mean,

00:11:25.320 | what a mistake that was where Biden just gratuitously insulted

00:11:29.360 | MBS. Compare that to the photo of Putin visiting the Middle

00:11:33.680 | East and meeting shaking hands with MBS, which happened just a

00:11:37.240 | few weeks ago. And compare the welcome that Putin got in Saudi

00:11:42.680 | Arabia, and I think UAE to the welcome that Biden got, it's

00:11:46.480 | just two completely different levels. It was a very warm

00:11:49.440 | embrace on both sides. I think it was UAE, they literally had a

00:11:53.320 | parade for him where they had the colors of the Russian flag up

00:11:57.320 | everywhere. So you know, we've tried to portray Putin as this

00:12:03.960 | global pariah, we've tried to turn them into this global

00:12:06.240 | pariah, but it's not working. Because of the way that he is

00:12:12.360 | defeating the collective West in Ukraine. I think that it's

00:12:16.880 | given him enormous cachet and influence in the global south and

00:12:21.880 | much of the developing world, which would like to stand up to

00:12:24.720 | American dominance, or at least is tired of American dominance.

00:12:28.640 | And if you double click on that article, the second one I sent

00:12:32.400 | on Washington trying to negotiate with the Saudis, you

00:12:35.400 | know, quote behind the scenes, but obviously, this all comes

00:12:37.560 | out. They're asking assurances that Riyadh will use dollars,

00:12:41.720 | not yuan to price oil sales assurances that Saudi won't

00:12:45.040 | allow China to build military bases in the kingdom, and

00:12:48.040 | limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by

00:12:50.880 | China. And in exchange, the US will protect Saudi will provide

00:12:55.960 | military protection, and will help them develop a nuclear

00:12:59.640 | program, which is an incredible demand. So obviously, this is an

00:13:04.000 | unresolved point. But this becomes a pivot moment for Saudi

00:13:06.760 | Arabia, they may become a nuclear power, use this as

00:13:09.320 | leverage as the US continues to try and keep dollar hegemony

00:13:12.560 | alive.

00:13:12.880 | And my prediction last year was that Trump would get indicted,

00:13:16.720 | win the nomination, and then agree not to run in order to get

00:13:20.760 | a pardon or something in that vein. And looks like I'm going

00:13:24.320 | to get to it. If it's those three correct, we'll see on the

00:13:26.120 | pardon. He has been indicted, obviously. And he is looks like

00:13:30.480 | a lock to win the nomination. But we'll see. I don't. It seems

00:13:35.080 | like Nikki Ellie's doing okay. We'll see. biggest political

00:13:38.680 | loser of 2024 is what we're gonna do next month. Last year,

00:13:41.960 | you pick to Santa's I picked to Santa's that was a pretty easy

00:13:44.980 | one. Sacha picked California also a pretty easy one. We know

00:13:48.600 | that California's gotten demolished.

00:13:51.000 | Because specifically, California went from having a $76 billion

00:13:54.000 | surplus 2022 to a $68 billion deficit. Now.

00:13:58.480 | Yeah, it's bonkers. Yeah,

00:14:00.200 | I don't think any of those were as obvious as they were in

00:14:02.760 | January of last year. I think to Santa's was leading, he was

00:14:05.400 | collecting a lot of big checks. And California hadn't imploded

00:14:08.600 | and everybody knew that they were on be under pressure, but

00:14:11.840 | nobody expected to be I think this swift. So I don't think

00:14:15.440 | those are obvious. I think those were actually pretty decent

00:14:17.080 | picks.

00:14:17.480 | Okay, that's good argument. And then freeberg you picked a debt

00:14:20.520 | issues for emerging nations, debt markets start to unravel

00:14:23.640 | IMF steps in. I'm not sure if I have enough information to check

00:14:28.120 | in on that one yet. Any thoughts freeberg we go on to our

00:14:30.460 | predictions for biggest loser.

00:14:31.480 | I don't think we had any big unwinding like I had expected.

00:14:35.600 | But these problems are bubbling and persist. You know, obviously

00:14:39.400 | Argentina took a big step with the election there. That one was

00:14:42.400 | one of the countries that was most at risk of having a big

00:14:45.520 | event last year. But

00:14:46.440 | Chamath, who's your prediction for biggest political loser in

00:14:50.400 | 2024?

00:14:51.120 | The Cokes I think on a dollar basis, they are the largest

00:14:55.520 | spender and Republican politics they have been and they have

00:14:59.400 | been the most consistent negative indicator of value. And

00:15:03.160 | so if you just want to fade a trade, I think you can pretty

00:15:07.600 | easily just find where the those old school Republicans are

00:15:13.280 | putting their money and just kind of short it and right now,

00:15:15.680 | as much as I was sort of long the Haley spread trade in 2023. I

00:15:21.680 | would probably now short that trade in 24.

00:15:24.000 | Okay, switching it up mostly because of the Cokes freeberg

00:15:28.280 | What do you

00:15:28.720 | well, saxel like this one, but I think Ukraine might be the

00:15:33.920 | biggest loser this year as attention shifts to the brewing

00:15:37.840 | conflict in the Middle East. During an election year like the

00:15:41.800 | US is facing continuing this funding of this Ukraine, Russia

00:15:45.360 | conflict with US dollars is becoming a more unpopular issue

00:15:50.280 | for people to support. And so I think because of all these,

00:15:53.760 | these competing interests and the political pressure, the US

00:15:57.640 | will probably not have the resources to commit to Ukraine,

00:16:01.760 | I think Ukraine's shot at being in NATO is going to fade away.

00:16:05.320 | And unfortunately, it seems like the country may be left behind

00:16:08.960 | by the end of this year. Sax, what do you got?

00:16:11.040 | Well, I totally agree with that. And I would just add demographic

00:16:13.640 | decline or even collapse. They've lost something like half

00:16:17.120 | a million soldiers in terms of casualties. They also something

00:16:22.680 | like 10 million people have fled the country. I read recently

00:16:26.240 | that there's only about 20 million people left in the

00:16:28.160 | country and half of them are pensioners. So it's not even

00:16:30.400 | clear that the working population, the country's gonna

00:16:33.320 | be able to support the pensioners. And of course, the

00:16:36.000 | war isn't close to being over yet. So there's gonna be even

00:16:38.160 | more destruction that happens. So I agree with that, that pick.

00:16:42.040 | I up leveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective

00:16:47.720 | West as the biggest political loser. And Ukraine is a big part

00:16:52.600 | of that, obviously, this huge bet that the collective West

00:16:55.760 | made in terms of pressuring and challenging Putin in Ukraine has

00:17:00.120 | completely crapped out. But I would also go much further than

00:17:02.840 | that. You look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza

00:17:06.400 | right now. And I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza

00:17:10.600 | is going well at all. And again, just stepping back, these

00:17:14.560 | answers don't reflect my desire for what I want to have happen.

00:17:19.480 | It just reflects my honest assessment of who the losers are

00:17:23.000 | gonna be. And I just think that Israel's invasion is not going

00:17:29.920 | well, it does not look like they're going to be able to

00:17:32.680 | militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas.

00:17:36.760 | Admiral Kirby, who's the Pentagon spokesperson even said

00:17:39.480 | that the other day, which was a pretty amazing admission. At the

00:17:42.960 | same time, Israel is creating a huge humanitarian crisis in

00:17:46.920 | Gaza, something like over 20,000 Palestinians have already been

00:17:51.800 | killed over 50,000 wounded, something like 1.8 million of

00:17:55.600 | them have been displaced. And it doesn't look like it's going to

00:17:58.440 | let up anytime soon. As a result of this, Israel is facing, I

00:18:04.320 | think, a huge amount of condemnation. Internationally, it

00:18:07.920 | is becoming a bit of a global pariah. So that is not going

00:18:11.880 | well for America and the West. And then you're going to have a

00:18:16.040 | whole bunch of elections this year, both in the US and in

00:18:20.680 | Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous

00:18:24.320 | disruption. Things are really not going well in Europe right

00:18:28.880 | now. large parts of Europe are in recession as a result of

00:18:32.960 | losing cheap Russian gas. This is particularly true of Germany.

00:18:37.440 | And I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the

00:18:41.200 | European Parliament. And I wouldn't be surprised if there

00:18:44.120 | was similar shakeups in the US election as well.

00:18:47.560 | All right. And I pick for my biggest political loser, I was

00:18:50.040 | going to go with the American voter, but I'm hoping that the

00:18:52.160 | American voters make better choices. And maybe we see some

00:18:55.320 | alternative candidates, as we said in the last one. And I went

00:18:57.800 | with Netanyahu here, I think. And again, this is just my

00:19:01.080 | assessment. This isn't what I want to occur in the world,

00:19:03.880 | obviously. But every major Israeli poll is just suggesting

00:19:07.720 | that they want him out. And they put the odds of box puts the

00:19:11.040 | odds of disaster at 75%. And obviously, yeah, Gaza is not

00:19:15.520 | going well. And it feels like there is a massive shift in

00:19:18.640 | terms of what was early support. And obvious support for the

00:19:23.200 | terror attacks that occurred on 10. Seven, and any reasonable

00:19:25.880 | person would be supportive of that, too. Hey, maybe what's

00:19:30.400 | happening in Gaza is not helping the situation and needs to be

00:19:34.360 | resolved. And maybe a different approach has to occur. And so I

00:19:37.800 | think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024. All

00:19:41.520 | right, let's go on to the biggest business winner of 2024.

00:19:45.640 | Back to business. Last year, last year, in 2023, I predicted

00:19:51.240 | laid off tech workers starting startup companies would be the

00:19:55.120 | big winner. Chamath you predicted relativity space 3d

00:19:57.680 | printing, rocket company, and Sachs, you picked America's

00:20:01.160 | natural gas industry, Freeberg, open AI. Wow, a lot of good

00:20:04.040 | choices there. I think opening I was a huge winner in 2023. Yeah,

00:20:08.160 | free bird. Even with the chaos. So I would say so. That was a

00:20:11.880 | good massive revenue, the highest market cap gain of the

00:20:14.680 | year, probably. Yeah. 30 to 90 billion. American natural gas

00:20:19.360 | industry that really actually cooked in 2023. Yes, sex. Yeah,

00:20:24.600 | there's new records. Good prediction. Good pick. Good

00:20:27.600 | pick. Alright, so let's go right to 2024. predictions. Freeberg,

00:20:32.360 | you haven't let us off yet. So you're gonna lead up be the

00:20:34.840 | lead off batter here. What do you got?

00:20:36.240 | I'm going with commodities businesses, which I know isn't

00:20:39.600 | speaking a specific business, but there's a lot of ways to

00:20:41.920 | play it. And I think there's a big commodities boom that's

00:20:44.320 | coming back in 2024. There's been a lot of underinvestment

00:20:48.320 | relative to demand over the past call it 18 to 24 months, coming

00:20:54.000 | out of COVID. And with rising interest rates, a lot of folks

00:20:58.440 | have been selling down inventory. And there now needs

00:21:01.320 | to be a build back up on inventory and supply. There's

00:21:04.840 | also a bunch of cash coming into the commodities markets that was

00:21:07.840 | sitting in treasuries as yields go down, that cash is coming

00:21:11.600 | back. So building the base back up, rebuilding stockpiles and

00:21:15.640 | supplies coming out of the past 18 months, obviously, economic

00:21:18.320 | activity is strong and robust. So commodities businesses are

00:21:22.160 | going to see a killer 2024.

00:21:24.320 | Chumot, what do you got?

00:21:25.240 | I think the biggest business winner in 2024 is going to be

00:21:29.400 | the bootstrapped startup and or the profitable startup, but the

00:21:37.880 | best will probably be the bootstrapped profitable startup.

00:21:40.760 | And I think the reason is that we are underestimating how cheap

00:21:48.000 | it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024. And

00:21:55.200 | so if you assume that these models are going to get 10 and

00:21:58.160 | 100 times better, and you assume the cost of compute is going to

00:22:02.120 | get 10 and 100 times cheaper, and you assume the cost of

00:22:05.680 | energy is going to get 10 times cheaper, you're no longer

00:22:11.040 | measuring in decades when a company will be subject to

00:22:13.960 | disruption, I think you're measuring it in frankly, months.

00:22:16.880 | And so I think you're going to be able to create these

00:22:19.400 | companies for very cheap, and essentially have them attack an

00:22:25.160 | existing business which has upside on economics because they

00:22:28.440 | have just a lot of people and a lot of processes that these GPT

00:22:33.120 | can replicate for essentially free. So if you're profitable,

00:22:36.440 | you have the chance to survive. And I think if you are

00:22:38.600 | unprofitable, I think that you're going to be under a lot

00:22:42.640 | of pressure.

00:22:43.160 | I think it's a great pick. That's exactly what I'm seeing

00:22:45.920 | on the field in the early stage. sacks was your prediction for a

00:22:50.280 | biggest business winner of 2024. Who do you predict is gonna be

00:22:52.800 | the biggest business winner?

00:22:53.880 | I'm predicting and roll for its Roadrunner product, which it

00:22:58.560 | announced last year. And this is a drone interceptor. So it

00:23:05.200 | basically intercepts drones is built for ground based air

00:23:08.920 | defense. And the reason I say this is because if you saw

00:23:12.600 | recently what was happening in the Red Sea with the Hooties,

00:23:16.000 | the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to

00:23:20.680 | shoot down $2,000 drones, and that is not sustainable. So

00:23:25.400 | right now, we have a huge problem with asymmetric warfare

00:23:29.680 | where our adversaries are using very cheap missiles, very cheap

00:23:34.400 | drones, swarms of them. And they force us to exhaust our air

00:23:39.520 | defenses, which are just way too expensive on a unit basis.

00:23:43.400 | Hundreds of 1000s of dollars, you think?

00:23:45.200 | Yeah, I think that's right. I think the Roadrunner system

00:23:47.160 | costs hundreds of 1000s of dollars, but it can be it's

00:23:49.320 | reusable. So it's not like you just send one up to take out

00:23:52.480 | one, if it doesn't blow up, if it does blow up, I don't think

00:23:55.600 | you reuse it.

00:23:56.280 | It basically takes off at loiters. This is basically a AI

00:24:01.720 | system where it's self self driving, I guess you will have

00:24:04.680 | operators but and then it returns back to its base

00:24:08.320 | station after it's used. It's not like a kamikaze type drone.

00:24:12.400 | It's actually a drone killer.

00:24:13.760 | Oh, right. I think it is. I think it do dual purpose. It can

00:24:16.320 | either intercept and blow something up or it can return

00:24:18.840 | back to base but we'll have to check in on that a and shout

00:24:21.240 | out to our friend Palmer lucky come back on the program. We

00:24:24.360 | miss you. Shout out to our boy. Are you an investor sacks in

00:24:27.160 | Andrew?

00:24:27.720 | No, I'm not. I'm not an investor. But I think I would be.

00:24:30.320 | Yeah. You know, so

00:24:32.040 | they've raised a ton of money. Palmer, great job. Yeah, no

00:24:35.160 | partner will all buy. Actually, I'm building a position right

00:24:37.600 | now. I've been buying secondary in Andrew. And for me, I was

00:24:43.160 | gonna go with startups.

00:24:44.080 | We're really buying secondary shares and Andrew.

00:24:46.400 | I've been building a large position in Andrew. Yes, I'm

00:24:49.320 | trying to get to a 2% ownership position so I can join the

00:24:51.480 | board. So using

00:24:53.680 | so

00:24:55.320 | we're lucky. I am going to go with for my biggest winner in

00:25:00.040 | 2024. training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit, x,

00:25:04.840 | Twitter, YouTube, etc. I think what we learned in 2023 was that

00:25:09.720 | the language models are starting to hit parity very quickly. And

00:25:13.000 | that the real value is going to be in and it may even become

00:25:17.480 | commodities and open source may win the day. So then I think

00:25:20.200 | the winner is folks who have the training data. And I'm actually

00:25:24.320 | proposing a new business model for these language models. I

00:25:26.920 | think now that we've seen this New York Times, an open AI

00:25:31.080 | lawsuit, I think there's a really great outcome here, which

00:25:34.400 | is a market based solution where if you have a chat GPT account,

00:25:39.240 | you can log in and federate with your New York Times subscription

00:25:42.960 | or you know, any other subscription. And then it gives

00:25:46.560 | you the tier of chat GPT for with the New York Times. And so

00:25:50.760 | that could be a win win for everybody, or they could

00:25:52.680 | obviously pay a licensing fee. And so I think this is going to

00:25:55.320 | be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry. If the

00:26:00.480 | language models respect copyright owners, and come up

00:26:03.600 | with a sustainable system where every year copyright holders can

00:26:06.800 | get some money in exchange for using their training data,

00:26:09.800 | whether it's on images or content. So I'm

00:26:13.440 | accumulate 2% position and open AI through secondary purchases

00:26:17.080 | and get them to do that on the board only 2 billion. Yeah, no,

00:26:20.360 | I think. Yeah. I mean, we didn't bring this up because it's broke

00:26:23.520 | over the the holiday break. But I think Sam Altman is doing a

00:26:27.320 | great job of telling people he wants to do the right thing. And

00:26:29.800 | we discussed previously the licensing deal they did with

00:26:32.440 | business insider in the parent company of it.

00:26:35.280 | Axel Springer, what do you think the deal with New York Times

00:26:37.600 | will look like?

00:26:38.000 | I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous

00:26:41.200 | stuff. And then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have

00:26:44.880 | the New York Times in their training data. And then you'll

00:26:47.160 | be able to say, hey, what does the New York Times think of

00:26:51.360 | this, right? You could actually do queries about the New York

00:26:54.040 | Times in it. And I think the New York Times will come up with a

00:26:56.960 | license that everybody can use their data if they pay this

00:27:00.160 | yearly fee. If you stop paying the yearly fee, then you can't

00:27:03.480 | train on it. And we're in uncharted territory.

00:27:06.240 | You're saying there's going to be a New York Times model and a

00:27:08.680 | non New York Times model?

00:27:10.320 | Well, I think you could do two different things. One, you could

00:27:12.960 | do New York Times could make their own model, right? But they

00:27:16.200 | could fork their model or just to the user interface, say, if

00:27:19.000 | you want to query New York Times information and have that as

00:27:21.880 | part of your results, you have to have a New York Times

00:27:24.120 | account, right? So if you say I want the best coffee machines,

00:27:28.600 | or what, what's the best coffee equipment? It says, Oh, if you

00:27:31.080 | had wire cutter, and a subscription to New York Times,

00:27:34.560 | we would include the wire cutter results. And this idea that

00:27:37.720 | technologists can't do citations has been proven

00:27:41.080 | absolutely incorrect. There are language models out there that

00:27:43.200 | are using citations all the time opening I think we'll wind up

00:27:46.320 | losing the case if it goes to the mat. I think they're gonna

00:27:48.280 | pay a big licensing fee to your question.

00:27:50.240 | My prediction then is that if this happens, this is not my

00:27:53.920 | pick, but I'm just gonna tell you. I suspect that what happens

00:27:57.480 | is you'll get these yearly licensing fees. And then one

00:28:00.440 | year, the New York Times just falls off a cliff. And when it

00:28:04.720 | comes time to renegotiate, then open AI says no. And they won't

00:28:09.400 | have a choice.

00:28:10.120 | Well, I mean, it's possibility. But if you think about the

00:28:12.320 | Disney characters, you know, let's see. I don't know if you

00:28:14.880 | saw Nintendo and Disney characters, you know, making

00:28:17.640 | stuff on Dolly or other things. If you make derivative works on

00:28:21.360 | that, and you want to have that feature as part of your image

00:28:24.240 | creator, you just have to have a licensing fee. And so I think

00:28:27.520 | that there's a win win here to be had. And I'm really

00:28:29.880 | interested to see the market based solution because I don't

00:28:32.000 | think this is a Napster situation where like open AI gets

00:28:34.200 | shut down. Because opening eyes to savvy I bet you in the

00:28:37.200 | forefront, the big difference between Napster and this is

00:28:39.320 | there, the content universe was limited, and small here, it's

00:28:42.840 | infinite and unlimited. And so how do you pay anything to

00:28:46.200 | anybody without? I just think it's like without direct

00:28:49.160 | attribution of revenue, which is basically impossible. You're

00:28:52.360 | kind of making a value judgment, which I don't think makes any

00:28:54.880 | sense. I think I think doing a revenue licensing deal is

00:28:59.200 | impossible when you get into the weeds when these business people

00:29:01.680 | sit down and actually start to try to figure out the bid ask. I

00:29:05.880 | don't know as a rational, coherent business person, what

00:29:09.240 | you would model in order to present the number.

00:29:12.480 | Yeah, so one suggestion would be what percentage of the models

00:29:17.360 | creation was using the New York Times data. And I think people

00:29:20.560 | say one to 2% of the original chat GPT was built off a

00:29:24.360 | trading data was New York Times. And then if they waited that

00:29:27.120 | heavily chemoth, like let's say they said, New York Times is an

00:29:30.120 | authoritatively five times more important than these other

00:29:32.960 | sources. That could be upwards of five to 10% of the authority

00:29:36.480 | of that model. Yeah, but so yes, it's not easy. But what's the

00:29:39.680 | cause? Yeah, but what's the cause for the like, are you

00:29:42.240 | telling me that like, the music industry has is

00:29:44.400 | gonna be like a 3040% cost of goods,

00:29:47.720 | you could say that chat GPT, or let's say Apple, I predict Apple

00:29:51.880 | will do this, right, they'll do a language model where they say

00:29:54.040 | 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or

00:29:57.360 | subscriptions, that goes to the people we built it off of where

00:30:01.160 | the licensees Sure, why not? Why not? They're already

00:30:03.520 | following you can just really does that would guarantee the

00:30:06.160 | death of the startup ecosystem. And it would guarantee the lock

00:30:10.880 | in a big tech.

00:30:11.840 | No, I don't think so. You could build models that don't have the

00:30:15.480 | data and you can build models with it. So it'll be a choice by

00:30:17.520 | the person who builds the model and synthetic data might make it

00:30:19.920 | so you don't need the New York Times chemoth. It's early days

00:30:23.160 | for synthetic data. I don't have an opinion. I'm just reacting to

00:30:25.480 | this idea that 50% of cogs, then all of a sudden, these aren't

00:30:28.640 | software companies, you know, these software companies will

00:30:31.040 | have a gross margin of like 30%.

00:30:32.760 | Yeah. Well, what a Spotify pay for music, you know, so that same

00:30:36.560 | argument is made for Spotify, you know, or Netflix, when they

00:30:38.720 | were licensing, and that's the difference. It's limited in

00:30:41.000 | scope, meaning there's there's only ever one hit song from

00:30:43.880 | Rihanna that matters, or jay-z or whomever picked Taylor Swift.

00:30:48.760 | And so it's a very scoped content universe. And so you can

00:30:51.640 | ascribe value much easier, because then the user goes and

00:30:55.040 | actually listens to that song over another, this is about

00:30:57.880 | something that's happening under the waterline, where you don't

00:31:00.760 | know how the iceberg is, it's both, there are things under the

00:31:03.280 | model that do it. And then there's also quoting stuff. And

00:31:05.960 | that's really where the New York Times got there, caught them

00:31:08.360 | with their hand in the cookie jar, is that when it was

00:31:10.280 | regurgitating information and giving the results, it was

00:31:13.520 | quoting deeply New York Times proprietary content. And so

00:31:16.720 | that's, that's where there's like a you're right about the

00:31:19.560 | training data, but you might be wrong about the

00:31:22.120 | that could be fixed. Right? They could

00:31:24.320 | make it could exclude storing any proprietary data, you can

00:31:29.360 | create a filter that says the model can't store any of this

00:31:31.760 | data. But it can still be trained or can't use it, right.

00:31:34.680 | So if you say what's the best coffee machine, it can't use the

00:31:37.640 | New York Times where I cut a data and I bet you that Sam

00:31:40.760 | Altman has already built a model without it. I guarantee you

00:31:43.640 | they've already built a for an emergent press here in case of

00:31:46.680 | emergency. Here's the 4.5 model in case they got an injunction,

00:31:50.320 | which would be highly unlikely. But if they did get an

00:31:51.920 | injunction, they just say, Okay, here's 4.5. It doesn't use the

00:31:54.920 | New York Times training data. So this is all uncharted

00:31:58.920 | territory. As we all know, I think we got everybody's

00:32:01.600 | business predictions. Okay, Andrew commodities, training

00:32:04.760 | data, and bootstrap profitable startups with a great cohort

00:32:07.720 | there. Let's go on to biggest business losers in 2024. 2023.

00:32:13.120 | Chamath said Google search as measured by profitability

00:32:16.680 | engagement. SAC said the consumer freeberg said capital

00:32:22.120 | intensive series BCS and D growth companies. That's pretty

00:32:25.800 | pretty good winner there. And I said white collar workers without

00:32:29.080 | hard skills, also known as surplus elites. Any feedback on

00:32:34.640 | those boys as your winner? I'll give you my prediction for 24.

00:32:37.400 | Please Yes, go ahead.

00:32:39.440 | Vertical SaaS companies I think are going to get smacked this

00:32:44.040 | year. And I mentioned this, I think we talked about this step

00:32:47.320 | off off the show. But or if we talked about on the show, I

00:32:50.840 | apologize. But like I think these tools to write code, no

00:32:54.720 | code tools, co piloting tools, and the ability for engineers to

00:32:59.840 | get 2050 100x more productive to build custom applications for

00:33:04.960 | their enterprise are so incredibly powerful. I mentioned

00:33:08.240 | this to you guys, I know of a couple vertical SaaS businesses

00:33:12.520 | that some of my companies use the software, and they're

00:33:15.480 | getting off the software, because they've built homegrown

00:33:18.560 | solutions at a very low cost, very low touch way. And I'm

00:33:22.640 | seeing that so frequently. Now, I think this is a real threat to

00:33:26.200 | vertical SaaS businesses that can charge 1000s of dollars per

00:33:29.160 | seat per year that are getting disrupted by the ability for

00:33:32.160 | companies now to very cheaply and quickly build homegrown

00:33:35.280 | solutions, using a lot of the generative tools that are out

00:33:37.840 | there.

00:33:38.080 | SACs, your prediction,

00:33:39.480 | my prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is is

00:33:42.600 | actually the German economy. There's two big problems there.

00:33:46.440 | First is that the loss of cheap Russian gas has really cut the

00:33:50.320 | legs out from under the German industrial model, their entire

00:33:55.000 | economy is based on industrial output. And cheap Russian gas

00:33:59.120 | was sort of at the foundation of that. As you guys know, someone

00:34:02.520 | blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. I think that has

00:34:05.960 | really hurt the German economy. And then second, the German car

00:34:10.920 | industry has been massively impacted by a sudden glut of

00:34:15.760 | cheap cars coming from China. So if you look at the Chinese

00:34:20.160 | automotive industry, it's really exploded in the last few years.

00:34:23.960 | And auto exports is one of you know, it's one of the biggest

00:34:27.280 | products that Germany manufactures. And with German

00:34:31.320 | costs going up and Chinese costs coming down, that's just not a

00:34:35.320 | very good place for them to be. So I think double whammy for

00:34:39.200 | Germany.

00:34:39.720 | Chema, do you have the biggest business loser in 2024?

00:34:43.320 | I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of

00:34:51.760 | professional sports. Oh, and I will give you four examples in

00:34:58.560 | 2023 that I think were in some very concerning or pro sports

00:35:05.200 | franchise values. As of today. The first was you had an upstart

00:35:11.080 | competitor to a league that came out of nowhere, used money to

00:35:15.280 | overcome the ability to attract stars. I'm talking about the

00:35:20.320 | live tour versus the PGA and then essentially forced the PGA

00:35:24.720 | into merger talks with them. The second was you had a country use

00:35:29.520 | their balance sheet to basically try to jumpstart their own

00:35:33.600 | professional sports business. In this case, it was soccer. The

00:35:37.960 | country was Saudi Arabia and the players were Ronaldo and Messi,

00:35:40.880 | they got one but not the other. The third was the explosion of

00:35:45.480 | NIL inside the NCAA. You have people in college now making

00:35:50.920 | more in some cases than the same player in a professional sports

00:35:55.440 | context. So they're making millions of dollars to be in

00:35:58.120 | college. And then the fourth, which may not seem like it's

00:36:02.040 | related, but there was an article in the Wall Street

00:36:04.600 | Journal, I think recently, about a meaningful uptick in churn

00:36:08.760 | amongst all the streamers, Netflix, Hulu, all of these

00:36:12.280 | companies, Amazon, who are the only folks with in a position to

00:36:17.160 | actually have the balance sheet to keep paying a premium for

00:36:20.760 | professional sports rights. So I think when you put that all

00:36:23.440 | together, you can start to see that there's been a tipping

00:36:28.560 | point in enterprise values. The acceleration we've seen over the

00:36:33.520 | last decade has slowed down. So I would say that 2024 is going

00:36:37.520 | to be the year of peak pro sports values.

00:36:40.720 | Okay, starts to come down. And I went with smartphones. smartphone

00:36:45.440 | manufacturers are facing a major slowdown. Consumers obviously

00:36:48.720 | love their phones and use them constantly. But people are

00:36:51.280 | skipping a generation of phones. And if you look at Apple's

00:36:54.440 | revenue, they're having a very hard time getting people to

00:36:57.360 | upgrade. And so I think that's going to flatten out, they will

00:37:00.360 | keep trying to squeeze money out of it. I don't know what you

00:37:03.000 | guys spent on your iPhone 15. If you got it, but I, I always buy

00:37:06.120 | the top of the line. And I think it was 14 or $1500 this time.

00:37:09.400 | And when I got the accountants, they said, Oh, is this a new

00:37:13.320 | laptop? I said, No, it's a new phone. But I think this is going

00:37:16.720 | to slow down and people will, during austerity, they're going

00:37:19.760 | to skip two or three versions of it. I know I skipped for the

00:37:22.000 | first time I skipped the 14 this time around. So I'm going with

00:37:25.400 | smartphone manufacturers and Apple would be obviously the tip

00:37:28.320 | of that spear. Let's keep moving our next prediction. biggest

00:37:31.840 | business deal of 2024. biggest business deal of 2024. I went

00:37:37.080 | with last year, my prediction was Amazon getting into

00:37:40.160 | healthcare, maybe they buy Peloton or Roman hymns, and they

00:37:43.320 | have been getting into healthcare a bunch more. And my

00:37:47.080 | my wildcard was a CCP divesting of Tick Tock that didn't

00:37:50.040 | happen. to my view went Starlink goes public in a spin out from

00:37:53.160 | SpaceX at 75 billion. That didn't happen. But Starlink is

00:37:57.080 | doing fantastic. sacks. You said a deal between Putin and she and

00:38:01.600 | then freeberg. You said Petro for one trade, the Saudi China

00:38:06.680 | trade. Any thoughts on the predictions there? Doesn't look

00:38:09.680 | like anybody nailed it.

00:38:10.840 | Well, no, actually, Putin, she did make a deal their ties and

00:38:14.720 | urban stronger and the trade between those two countries

00:38:17.080 | keeps increasing as a result of the fact that we pushed Russia

00:38:20.360 | into China's arms. So that absolutely happened.

00:38:22.680 | And what's your prediction? This year, sex? biggest business

00:38:25.120 | deal,

00:38:25.440 | so actually, my biggest business deal is whatever the Fed decides

00:38:30.200 | to do to replace or extend btfp, the bank term funding program.

00:38:35.680 | Remember that the btfp, which is what the Fed used to bail out

00:38:39.600 | the regional banking system last year, and was like March or

00:38:43.520 | April, it was only supposed to last for one year, it's supposed

00:38:46.520 | to be a temporary program. But I do not think that the balance

00:38:49.720 | sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive

00:38:53.920 | without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think

00:38:57.800 | the Fed's gonna have to do something to either replace the

00:39:00.520 | program, extend the program, they're gonna have to do

00:39:03.720 | something. And I think that regional banks are still in

00:39:07.200 | pretty bad shape with, you know, impaired commercial debt

00:39:11.560 | portfolios. And they need this liquidity as long as the yield

00:39:16.040 | curve remains inverted. So I think the Fed is going to try

00:39:20.560 | and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until

00:39:27.600 | they can de invert the yield curve. And I think the Fed's

00:39:32.840 | trying to massage all of this into place without there being a

00:39:35.800 | recession.

00:39:36.360 | Seems like they'll be able to do it. Chamath, what do you got?

00:39:38.680 | I'm gonna go with the same thing. I think I was just off

00:39:41.480 | by your Starlink, Google Public. Hmm. Fascinating.

00:39:46.320 | I like it. And I had a similar theme, my wildcard, my wildcard

00:39:52.240 | last year that the CCP would divest of Tick Tock, I'm going

00:39:54.800 | to say this year, that I think Tick Tock goes public, and

00:39:58.360 | they'll be under pressure from different political factions to

00:40:03.240 | get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance

00:40:06.040 | taking, going public or Tick Tock spinning out and going

00:40:08.680 | public some some version of that. Freeberg, what do you got

00:40:11.440 | for this year? We got some continuation bets here from Jake

00:40:14.080 | Allen. Yeah, I would keep going with my Petro. You want trade

00:40:17.160 | bet? I don't think that the US is going to let Saudi become a

00:40:20.400 | nuclear power. But so maybe leave that one outstanding. But

00:40:24.960 | I think rights holder is getting licensing deals for generative

00:40:27.520 | AI, or there's gonna be a couple of blockbuster deals this year.

00:40:30.120 | Great. Where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of

00:40:34.240 | their library. So people can generate on demand video games

00:40:38.240 | or content or I don't know, you guys remember this company in

00:40:41.520 | the early 2000s called Zazzle? Do you remember that company?

00:40:44.360 | Yeah, what was that printed stuff on mugs? Yeah. And they

00:40:47.680 | had a big deal with Disney, where the idea was you could

00:40:51.480 | put any character in any way you want on any piece of like t

00:40:56.040 | shirt or mug or whatever merch. And it was like merch and it was

00:40:59.160 | a big deal. I think we see that again with generative AI this

00:41:02.160 | year where you can take for example, a character from a

00:41:04.840 | movie and generate them in an image. So anyone that has an

00:41:08.800 | interest in content rights will start to license it out and get

00:41:11.920 | a lot of value from it. Absolutely. Because a couple of

00:41:14.320 | big deals like that this year.

00:41:15.280 | Okay, most contrarian belief of 2024. I went American

00:41:20.200 | exceptionalism source. I think I like that prediction from last

00:41:23.200 | year ahead. Chamath you said inflation doesn't fall off a

00:41:25.840 | cliff as fast as people want. SAC says the bromance between

00:41:29.920 | Biden and Zelensky comes to an end. Freeberg you said 2023

00:41:33.440 | marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the global

00:41:36.160 | reserve currency.

00:41:37.640 | I nailed that one.

00:41:38.640 | It didn't fall off a cliff. It didn't. What was inflation in

00:41:45.760 | the first quarter of 2023? Just kidding. It fell. Oh, I'm like,

00:41:49.760 | yeah, wait a second.

00:41:51.720 | It's like, what the fuck you talking about?

00:41:53.920 | Yeah, sorry. You confusing me. I'm like, really? Wait a second.

00:41:57.400 | I think you get the Jim Cramer or the Professor Galloway moment

00:42:00.480 | for that prediction. Yeah, I think you might have missed that

00:42:03.840 | one by a bit. All right. What do you got? Chamath for this year?

00:42:07.760 | What do you got most contrarian belief of 2024?

00:42:09.680 | I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down. Okay, I don't

00:42:15.520 | think it has anything to do with open AI. I think it has

00:42:18.680 | everything to do with the rest of the industry. I think I think

00:42:21.560 | there's a couple of factors at play similar to what I just said

00:42:24.680 | earlier. But if you actually try to use these tools, which now I

00:42:29.160 | have been in my sort of day job as CEO, I've been trying to

00:42:34.320 | build models, Sonny's been helping me. My takeaway are two

00:42:38.280 | things. Number one is the latency right now, amongst all

00:42:41.840 | these AI tools, makes building production quality code

00:42:45.640 | absolutely impossible. So you can't have API's where you take

00:42:49.400 | 30 4050 seconds in between a request to get data back. It's

00:42:53.520 | that's ridiculous. These needs to be non starter. Yeah. 50 3040

00:42:58.840 | 70 milliseconds. Second is the actual cost of a million tokens

00:43:04.120 | on any of these platforms is economically untenable if you're

00:43:11.360 | trying to build something. So whether it's Amazon, whether

00:43:15.760 | it's together day I whether it's open AI, it's extremely,

00:43:19.520 | extremely expensive. So I think that capitalism would tell you

00:43:24.040 | that if these two things are true, you should expect people

00:43:28.720 | to arbitrage that opening. And so if you see cloud services come

00:43:34.200 | out that allow you to basically get millisecond latency batch

00:43:37.800 | size one, on the one hand, and second where you have pricing

00:43:41.720 | for a million tokens, that sort of 1020 cents, those folks and

00:43:46.880 | they'll need to build their own custom hardware to do it. But

00:43:49.480 | those folks will multiply the capability of this market by 1000

00:43:54.520 | x. And I think when that happens, the open source models

00:43:59.280 | really proliferate, proprietary models and closed models go

00:44:02.920 | under pressure. And the existing economics of how you make money

00:44:07.120 | today will get reallocated to those different players. And I

00:44:10.520 | think in that it's going to be very hard for existing folks, I

00:44:13.480 | would say the same is probably true for Nvidia. The folks that

00:44:17.000 | have won up until today, to maintain a multiple of market

00:44:21.160 | cap in this next year, that happens. And so my prediction is

00:44:24.640 | that will happen. And as a result, the enterprise values of

00:44:27.800 | those companies, and I think opening out will be the most

00:44:30.200 | obvious will go down.

00:44:31.120 | People buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be

00:44:33.600 | underwater next year,

00:44:34.720 | though it's, again, they have to believe that the revenue

00:44:39.280 | composition today is sustainable. And if you look

00:44:42.160 | under the hood, half the revenue is consumers paying

00:44:45.120 | subscriptions. The other half the revenue are enterprises

00:44:48.200 | paying for essentially some version of AWS. Yes. But the

00:44:52.200 | problem is that version of AWS is economically non functional,

00:44:58.040 | it's unsustainable. It's way too expensive, and it's way too

00:45:01.800 | slow. And by the way, that's just not an open AI problem.

00:45:05.160 | It's an entire industry problem. And so if this industry is

00:45:08.200 | really going to be real, it needs to be literally dirt cheap

00:45:11.960 | and as close to zero as possible. The minute that that

00:45:13.880 | happens, that revenue goes away.

00:45:15.920 | So then they're just left with the subscription.

00:45:17.640 | By the way, the people that provide that will be the ones

00:45:20.280 | that have the hardware to enable that 1000 xing of the cost,

00:45:24.880 | which is Azure, AWS. No, no, no, no, I think these are

00:45:28.640 | startups that are building proprietary hardware.

00:45:30.480 | Oh, okay. Wow. So there's another prediction. freebird

00:45:33.680 | what do you got 2024 prediction was contrarian belief.

00:45:36.240 | Okay, so I don't think we're past the conflict escalation

00:45:39.920 | stage, I think things are only going to continue to mount. So

00:45:44.560 | a lot of the theater that we see on a global stage is more

00:45:50.080 | fundamentally driven by these big cycles that we're in. So I

00:45:54.680 | think a big one and a kind of tactical one, I think the big

00:45:59.080 | one that's contrarian is that there's an increased probability

00:46:02.880 | of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time in conflict.

00:46:07.760 | And I think that that's conditioned on the fact that

00:46:09.960 | there are declining military supplies, there's declining

00:46:15.360 | appetite and capacity to support traditional conflict meat

00:46:18.800 | grinder type conflicts that we're seeing sprout up

00:46:21.840 | everywhere right now. And we're not everywhere, but in a lot of

00:46:24.800 | places. And you could see a moment where, as I mentioned in

00:46:28.680 | the past, someone gets backed into a corner and a tactical

00:46:31.240 | low yield nuclear weapon gets used. And I think that when you

00:46:34.360 | do that, it opens up the gates to hell. So it's a little scary.

00:46:36.760 | That's why, you know, we all joking aside, that's why you

00:46:40.240 | bought the radiation suits. And I and by the way, I don't think

00:46:43.000 | this is a high probability. And I'm not joking. It's I don't

00:46:45.120 | think it's a high probability. I think it's like one, you know,

00:46:47.120 | call it one to 2% chance something like this happens. But

00:46:49.760 | it's 10x where it was five years ago. And so that's my outcome of

00:46:53.760 | this is terrifying. Yeah, it's such a significant event that

00:46:57.720 | it's it's definitely one to kind of be be thoughtful about. And

00:47:00.920 | then the other one that I kind of said was tactical is I think

00:47:02.880 | there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO that a

00:47:07.640 | lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with

00:47:11.880 | Hamas. This has obviously been talked about and rumored about

00:47:14.720 | for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way for

00:47:17.440 | kicking a member out of NATO. But I'll share with you guys,

00:47:20.720 | there's a lot of political commentary that Turkey cannot be

00:47:22.640 | a trusted ally. And obviously that now, you know, Turkey is

00:47:26.160 | siding with folks who are actual threats to the West, the US

00:47:30.280 | incentive is you don't want to see Turkey with the biggest one

00:47:32.360 | of the biggest armies in Europe, run into Russia's arms. You're

00:47:36.720 | going to try to keep them in NATO. But there is a real risk

00:47:39.360 | that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with

00:47:42.960 | Turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something

00:47:45.520 | that happens this year. So that's one that I keep an eye on

00:47:48.880 | that is certainly not top of anyone's mind. But it certainly

00:47:51.440 | begins to beg the question of the importance of NATO.

00:47:56.160 | What do you got sacks? Your most contrarian belief?

00:47:59.520 | Well, can I first make a comment on last year's pick? Yes, it's

00:48:03.480 | okay. So I, you know, last year, I felt like I was going out on a

00:48:05.920 | limb predicting a rift in the bromance between Biden and

00:48:09.320 | Zelensky because that relationship seems so tight. And

00:48:13.320 | with about four days left in the year, there was this article

00:48:17.080 | that came out in Politico that says the Biden administration is

00:48:19.920 | quietly shifting its strategy in Ukraine, the article basically

00:48:22.480 | says that the administration wants to go on the defensive.

00:48:25.280 | And I think pretty clearly it wants a ceasefire and a frozen

00:48:28.640 | conflict. It wants to get this conflict sort of out of the way

00:48:33.680 | swept under the rug before the election season really cranks

00:48:36.920 | into high gear. And the problem they have is that Zelensky does

00:48:40.720 | not want to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia that would

00:48:45.120 | involve Ukraine losing territory. So there is now a

00:48:48.920 | rift between maybe not Biden himself, but let's say Biden

00:48:53.000 | operatives, the Biden administration, and what

00:48:56.040 | Zelensky wants. And I think this will be the theme in 2024 is how

00:49:01.400 | do you reign in Zelensky after you've been telling the public

00:49:05.000 | for the last two years that our job is to support whatever

00:49:08.040 | Zelensky wants,

00:49:08.960 | and your prediction for this year,

00:49:10.840 | so my prediction for for this year is that the soft landing

00:49:13.920 | gets very bumpy. I think that over the last two months of the

00:49:17.560 | year, I think markets got super optimistic, they started pricing

00:49:20.640 | in big Fed rate cuts, you know, let's call it one and a half

00:49:23.880 | percent. So we had this huge stock market rally in November,

00:49:27.760 | December, and I think there's generally a very strong belief

00:49:31.160 | that the Fed will be able to pull off the soft landing. I'm

00:49:34.680 | not necessarily saying that there's going to be a recession.

00:49:37.080 | I just, you know, I feel like I predicted 10 of the last two

00:49:40.280 | recessions. I keep basically predicting recession when

00:49:44.080 | there's not one. But I do think that there's just been too much

00:49:48.120 | too soon of this euphoria. And I just think that this year is

00:49:53.240 | going to be a lot bumpier than that, both politically and

00:49:56.600 | economically. So I think there's just a little bit too much

00:50:00.080 | euphoria and overoptimism right now.

00:50:02.480 | I'm tempted to go again with American exceptionalism. I think

00:50:05.480 | I nailed that last year. America just had an amazing year in 2023

00:50:09.640 | while Xi Jinping made unforced errors and getting rid of

00:50:14.160 | capitalism in his country and nobody starting companies,

00:50:16.240 | they're on stock market falling apart, real estate falling

00:50:18.080 | apart. And now he's coming back to America, as we saw when he

00:50:20.640 | had a summit with Biden, asking people, please come back and

00:50:23.400 | invest again, huge unforced error. And I think Russia with

00:50:27.400 | the huge unforced error of losing hundreds of 1000s of

00:50:29.960 | their citizens, their young people to a senseless war for no

00:50:33.160 | reason, and losing customers in the West, like Germany, as you

00:50:37.320 | pointed out, sacks, I think American exceptionalism will

00:50:40.840 | continue to soar. But I don't want to take the same

00:50:43.960 | prediction. So I also consider two other options Apple making

00:50:48.560 | huge gains in generative AI and then streaming services,

00:50:51.080 | rightsizing and becoming highly profitable and having a rebound

00:50:55.360 | between those two. I think I'm going to go with Apple. As my

00:50:58.520 | contrarian belief, I think Apple is going to become a player in

00:51:01.000 | AI. The end of the year, maybe they reboot Siri, but they're

00:51:05.520 | going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to

00:51:08.480 | remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI. So I'm going to go

00:51:12.640 | with Apple making huge gains in generative AI or AI in general,

00:51:16.800 | maybe a new Siri coming soon. best performing asset of 2024.

00:51:20.880 | In 2023. I went with seed stage investing, I think I'll be

00:51:24.200 | proven right in five years. But that's kind of hard to prove in

00:51:27.200 | the short term. Chamath you said cash and the front end of the

00:51:30.160 | yield curve. It's actually what we short term T bills as well.

00:51:33.040 | And freeberg you went with semiconductor capital equipment,

00:51:37.200 | oil gas services, pharma infrastructure, anybody have

00:51:40.320 | thoughts on their predictions from last year?

00:51:41.720 | That was pretty good at 5%. No kidding, right? As good as it

00:51:45.360 | gets. This is not a lot of motivation to enter the markets

00:51:48.640 | when you're earning five, five and a half percent risk free.

00:51:51.480 | Okay, so let's do our 20. equipment up 60%. Amazing. Good

00:51:56.240 | year. Good year. freeberg. Well, what do you got? What's your

00:51:59.040 | prediction for best performing asset of this coming year?

00:52:01.240 | Oh, I took the uranium ETF. You are easy money. Whether it plays

00:52:07.320 | out in the next 12 months or over time, I'm not sure it's

00:52:09.800 | just an inevitability. A lot of folks have this bet on this

00:52:12.680 | trade on it's it's kind of an inventory that we have to see.

00:52:16.880 | It's a it's an index on businesses that benefit from

00:52:21.880 | mining and producing nuclear power with money or any and

00:52:24.960 | producing nuclear power. China is building up 450 nuclear power

00:52:28.360 | stations as we've talked about, there's a lot of ESG driven

00:52:30.480 | demand, and a lot of conflict driven demand, big shift

00:52:33.280 | underway. A lot of deregulatory effort underway globally to try

00:52:38.400 | and get nuclear back on track. Nuclear power back on track. So

00:52:42.720 | these companies are going to benefit from this big macro

00:52:44.640 | cycle. So it's a and this is an existing ETF or you're saying

00:52:47.920 | you roll one? No, it's called you uranium. It's uranium.

00:52:51.560 | Tracking ETF URA is the ticker. I like that a lot. And I do a lot

00:52:57.760 | of esoteric general statements. This one I thought I'd go a

00:53:00.400 | little specific. I like it. I mean, it's it's a great

00:53:03.720 | prediction. And sentiment has certainly changed here in the US

00:53:07.200 | where we've been on right. So since I'll just tell you guys,

00:53:10.560 | it bottomed out in March of this year at 19 bucks, it's up 50%

00:53:14.400 | since then. And in the last five years, you know, it's up to x.

00:53:19.600 | But plenty of room to run if you look at the underlying assets

00:53:24.000 | that BTF tracks

00:53:25.200 | to my best performing asset of 2024. What's your prediction? I

00:53:28.800 | have to do it with the worst performing asset of 2024.

00:53:31.320 | Because it's a bit of a spread trade. So I'm going to take the

00:53:36.160 | public software index, tech stock index, and my short is

00:53:40.360 | going to be the private tech software companies, the late

00:53:45.000 | stage, mostly SaaS companies. And I think we've all talked

00:53:48.800 | about the reasons why but I think that the terminal

00:53:50.520 | valuations are getting reset in the public markets. I don't

00:53:54.800 | think the growth rates are there in the private companies. And so

00:53:58.880 | you're going to have a reset on valuation. In many cases that

00:54:03.520 | reset may just be that they stay at the same valuation three

00:54:06.880 | years later, even after doubling revenue, or more. The problem is

00:54:11.400 | you will have taken another 30% dilution between now and then

00:54:16.320 | because of all the stock based comp that these private

00:54:18.240 | companies give out so long the public tech cycle short the

00:54:23.160 | private late stage tech cycle expecting a valuation

00:54:26.640 | contraction in the latter.

00:54:27.840 | What do you got sex? What do you think's gonna be the best

00:54:29.440 | performing asset of 2024?

00:54:32.720 | Well, I'm really not sure about this. So I would urge nobody to

00:54:36.160 | actually trade on this. But

00:54:37.560 | not investment advice. Be clear. None of this is investment

00:54:42.080 | advice.

00:54:42.440 | I'm not I'm not trading on this on these predictions. So you

00:54:45.120 | shouldn't either. My guess here just a guess is energy is energy

00:54:50.360 | stocks, energy prices could be among the top performers of

00:54:54.920 | 2024. Just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking

00:54:59.560 | out now and escalating. So I agree with freeberg that there

00:55:03.400 | are huge risks of escalation in the Middle East, the Ukraine

00:55:06.760 | war still going on. I think not enough attention is being paid

00:55:10.000 | to what's happening between Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela

00:55:15.600 | is basically attempting to annex Guyana's offshore oil

00:55:19.920 | reserves, which are huge. This is basically just pure theft.

00:55:23.800 | Ethiopia also has tense relationships with a few of its

00:55:28.640 | neighbors. And I could easily see there being a war that

00:55:31.840 | breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or Ethiopia and Eritrea.

00:55:38.560 | And then that could spill over and create further disruption in

00:55:41.560 | the Red Sea. We also still have this unresolved issue of the

00:55:44.160 | hoodies. And of course, you have neocons brain for war with Iran

00:55:48.200 | as they always do. John Bolton just published another piece

00:55:50.720 | saying that we had to go to war with Iran. So there's just so

00:55:53.680 | many ways that the conflict could escalate and create, I

00:55:59.240 | think a spike in the price of oil.

00:56:00.840 | All right, you know, I'd love to, I in my heart of hearts, I

00:56:04.800 | believe the best performing asset will still be seed stage

00:56:07.600 | startups. But I'm going to go with consumer comfort services.

00:56:12.880 | I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a

00:56:17.280 | soft landing or recession, it's clear that consumers have spent

00:56:20.840 | all their money. So they're going to go for small luxuries

00:56:23.680 | like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, small things to have great

00:56:28.440 | experiences. And I'm talking my book in two out of those three,

00:56:32.200 | which I own shares in. But I think consumers are going to

00:56:34.960 | keep treating themselves to getting some DoorDash or, you

00:56:39.200 | know, getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or whatever it

00:56:41.520 | happens to be. So consumer comfort services is my pick for

00:56:44.280 | the best performing asset of 2024. worst performing asset,

00:56:48.320 | let's go right on to worst performing asset. We're cooking

00:56:51.040 | with oil, worst performing asset, I will with energy

00:56:54.360 | Chamapo and tech energy junk debt, sacks, what would office

00:56:57.400 | hours in San Francisco, and Freiburg went with consumer

00:57:00.360 | credit? Well, I think we nailed it in almost all those cases

00:57:02.840 | here. What do we got for 2024? It's actually got a 2024

00:57:08.400 | prediction of worst performing asset. Again, this is not

00:57:11.120 | investing advice.

00:57:12.080 | Yeah, so I'm not going to trade on this. So just take it with a

00:57:14.680 | grain of salt. But I would bet against the magnificent seven,

00:57:19.720 | just because I believe that what goes up must come down and the

00:57:23.440 | hotter they are, the harder they fall. I'm not saying that the

00:57:27.040 | magnificent seven are actually going to go down. I'm just

00:57:29.240 | saying that the S&P 493 are going to catch up a little bit.

00:57:33.520 | So I would book this as a spread trade, where I would bet on the

00:57:37.760 | S&P 493 over the magnificent seven because again, I just

00:57:42.440 | think that there's got to be some catching up here. And the

00:57:47.400 | huge gains made by the mason magnificent seven were really

00:57:50.320 | based on story, you know, based on AI. And I don't see why those

00:57:57.600 | gains should be limited to the minutes and seven if AI is going

00:58:01.920 | to play such a big role in the economy.

00:58:03.520 | Chama I too, when you predicted earlier about opening, I losing

00:58:09.160 | some value, my worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups,

00:58:13.200 | I believe they've been massively overvalued. And I believe open

00:58:15.880 | source is making an incredible run at them. And I think they're

00:58:19.120 | going to hit parity. And there's too many players. This is like

00:58:21.880 | having 15 search engines or 20. Amazon's there's just too many

00:58:25.360 | players and there's too much parity. The prices make no

00:58:28.160 | sense. And I think they're all going to come down by, you know,

00:58:31.800 | 50 6070 80% in terms of their valuations, and that won't get

00:58:36.160 | marked in their books. But that will be the reality of where

00:58:38.800 | their stocks will trade on the private markets. freeburg,

00:58:41.480 | which are worst performing, and worst performing,

00:58:44.520 | shared earlier, I would go short vertical SAS, vertical software

00:58:50.640 | companies and long cloud providers that have AI tools and

00:58:55.000 | platforms that will allow enterprises to build custom

00:58:58.960 | applications in a low cost, low code way. And so you could

00:59:03.720 | obviously pick the companies that would go in that bucket, go

00:59:06.480 | along those those cloud bucket and go short the vertical

00:59:08.840 | bucket. Is there like a per seat price threshold that you think

00:59:14.040 | would kind of demarcate the companies that you think are at

00:59:17.040 | risk? In other words, like, I invest in plenty of SAS

00:59:20.200 | companies that sell seats at 510 bucks per month. I'm just like

00:59:26.160 | very skeptical. It's not going to get that it's worth an

00:59:29.080 | enterprise as well to recreate that software. And so I'll give

00:59:32.240 | you an example that there's a vertical software provider,

00:59:35.560 | we're paying 5 grand per seat per year, right now. And we look

00:59:44.880 | at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management

00:59:47.920 | tool for our particular vertical. Let's just go recreate

00:59:51.320 | that and did it very quickly, very low cost. And we're gonna

00:59:53.480 | replace it. Cut that out. I don't wanna say that. But yeah.

00:59:58.600 | Is it? So it's like, you know, very specific, very expensive.

01:00:02.880 | But I mean, sacks, you can probably see the same thing

01:00:04.680 | happen in sales CRM type tools that are obviously also very

01:00:08.360 | expensive. And how much is it data? How much do you pay? 5

01:00:12.600 | grand?

01:00:12.920 | 5 grand per year. So that's basically every $40 a seat per

01:00:19.000 | like 100 employees. So we're paying like 500 grand. And so

01:00:23.520 | one of our software engineers is like this spins up a replacement

01:00:27.520 | for we're gonna roll it out in q1.

01:00:29.120 | Okay, so is there is there like a per seat per month price that

01:00:32.880 | you think starts to where it doesn't work? Is it 50 bucks?

01:00:36.360 | What is the number?

01:00:37.160 | I mean, I do the math. But yeah, it shouldn't be in the range

01:00:39.840 | that it's at, for sure. But a lot of these guys where they had

01:00:42.320 | a monopoly, and it wasn't worth the company's time to try and

01:00:45.240 | invest in software, at the price point that they were charging,

01:00:48.200 | they found a market now the market has to compress. So I'm

01:00:51.280 | not saying that the companies go away. But I do think pricing

01:00:53.320 | compression is going to hurt these businesses a lot.

01:00:55.200 | If you pay could pay 50,000 for the same software instead of 500

01:00:58.800 | you would not have spun it up yourself. So there is a

01:01:01.200 | reasonable number between those two, right? And that reasonable

01:01:04.160 | number might be 250 or something.

01:01:05.880 | But in here's the thing that we need to also factor in, which is

01:01:08.800 | that free books companies that engineer could also then just

01:01:12.560 | release that product for everybody else to use at 10

01:01:15.960 | cents. And everybody else will then use it, because it'll be

01:01:20.040 | good enough. And that and that 80% of the company will take

01:01:23.280 | over the will take over the market. Yeah, that's my point.

01:01:25.760 | There's gonna be pricing compression. This is the thing

01:01:27.440 | like I think that people underestimate how deflationary

01:01:29.560 | this whole thing is. It's like, yeah, it's like two to three

01:01:32.440 | orders of magnitude more deflationary than people have

01:01:35.040 | any inkling of.

01:01:35.880 | Yeah. Interestingly, I had David Handmaier Hanson on this week

01:01:40.400 | and startups and they're releasing something called one

01:01:42.600 | stock calm where they're going to charge for software one time

01:01:45.200 | like we used to do. And their first product is a slack killer.

01:01:48.480 | And so the idea of paying per seat for slack, what they're

01:01:52.120 | planning to do is just charge you, you know, a 95. No, you

01:01:57.200 | find a hosting company. So okay, so it's like old school. It's

01:02:00.920 | old school.

01:02:01.480 | On prem software on prem, and then you pay you pay an upgrade

01:02:05.240 | fee when you upgrade the software, basically, I think

01:02:07.880 | they're gonna be paying them like a maintenance percentage.

01:02:10.520 | That's the way

01:02:10.840 | it's always work school enterprise software, right? The

01:02:13.480 | pricing model was the revenue model was always built that when

01:02:16.640 | you did a sale, you would make on average 20% of the revenue

01:02:20.600 | per year in update fees. And so now and then everything switched

01:02:24.760 | to SAS, which is continuous support, support, maintenance,

01:02:27.840 | all that kind of stuff. So it's never they say it's one time.

01:02:30.680 | It's one time for the software. But if you want to stay up to

01:02:33.240 | date, and get support and patches and all that kind of

01:02:36.440 | stuff,

01:02:36.760 | yeah, and the old school enterprise software model was

01:02:39.080 | always like, figure 20% of the install cost.

01:02:42.320 | Right. And by the way, this is one of the reasons why Oracle

01:02:45.720 | made so much money is they did a roll up of all these old school

01:02:49.440 | on prem software companies that weren't growing, but the

01:02:52.680 | maintenance fees were just rolling in forever. Yeah. And

01:02:55.880 | they rolled all that stuff up.

01:02:57.120 | And then probably raise the fees. I mean, for me, you know,

01:03:00.000 | when you have a 20 person company, 50 person company, the

01:03:02.120 | slack fees don't seem like a big deal. But when you get to, you

01:03:06.240 | know, when you're spending 500,000 or a million dollars a

01:03:08.600 | year on something like slack, you know, then maybe you would

01:03:11.040 | consider other options. And I know people at large

01:03:13.400 | organizations that have done that, because there's an open

01:03:15.560 | source competitor to it. So that does exist in the world. Okay,

01:03:18.920 | number one, freeberg is bringing up is like, why would you

01:03:21.480 | support 500,000 to million dollar a year, op ex for

01:03:27.480 | software? I mean, can you really put a model together that shows

01:03:31.360 | that that's somehow accretive to you, especially if you're a

01:03:34.400 | money losing startup? It just doesn't make any logical sense.

01:03:37.480 | I understand that it happens.

01:03:38.720 | And the fact that that software SAS companies have been able to

01:03:42.000 | make 80 to 90% margins and grow on that it has created the best

01:03:45.720 | business model in history. But I think what may become apparent

01:03:48.800 | now is that the SAS business model is really a temporary

01:03:53.080 | phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the

01:03:56.520 | development of AI and low cost low code tools for developing

01:04:00.600 | software.

01:04:01.080 | Yeah, the dirt it was an arbitrage of the dearth of

01:04:03.560 | engineers, it was the gross margin that was correlated to

01:04:06.160 | the lab.

01:04:06.480 | And now now that the work that software engineers could have

01:04:10.000 | done has been automated into software itself, you are going

01:04:13.600 | to see a lot of that arbitrage say differently, freeberg, you

01:04:17.560 | could say like the number of engineers has now multiplied by

01:04:20.960 | a million fold.

01:04:21.640 | That's right. And now everyone has them available. So then the

01:04:25.400 | gross margins, we're not going to be 90% the gross margins,

01:04:27.880 | maybe 30%. And so so everything gets competed away. And pricing

01:04:31.520 | goes down pricing gets compressed. And that's why this

01:04:33.640 | is a big macro trend for me, like, I'm just seeing it across

01:04:36.240 | every company, everyone's rethinking whether or not the

01:04:38.560 | baby seat fees for all different types of software tools.

01:04:41.000 | By the way, the the part of that which is economically true is if

01:04:44.600 | you look at every other category in the economy, and you look at

01:04:48.680 | the gross margin profile of businesses that are not pure

01:04:51.520 | play tech, we have grown up and we've monetized this belief that

01:04:56.600 | tech companies not only can start at 80 to 90%, but stay

01:05:00.400 | there and definitely there. Yeah, they should be at 40%. Not

01:05:03.520 | even every other market can start off in the 50 6070%. When

01:05:07.440 | they're nascent, but capitalism competes away those margins down

01:05:10.680 | to 30 to 40%. Right. And a best in class business generates 20

01:05:15.320 | to 25% EBITDA margins on a sustained basis. Yeah. So if you

01:05:18.920 | believe that the average best run company is a 35% gross

01:05:23.560 | margin business with 20 to 25% free cash flow margins. tech

01:05:27.920 | stocks have a long way to go down. Exactly. Exactly. It was

01:05:31.360 | software software companies. Yeah, software companies. But if

01:05:34.720 | it's priced below the cost of you rebuilding it, then you're

01:05:38.440 | not you're just it's a buyer. No, no, no. But the point is,

01:05:41.440 | the point is like when somebody does that, so Friedberg's

01:05:44.160 | company did that work. He doesn't even need to need want

01:05:47.720 | to make a profit from that software to just say anybody

01:05:50.280 | else can use this. I have an auto GPT that will basically

01:05:54.160 | configure myself to you if you want to use it. And now that n

01:05:58.480 | plus first company who's starting up with two or three

01:06:01.240 | people can now raise an order of magnitude less money, and we'll

01:06:05.480 | write the GPT that connects to his. And now has this. So this

01:06:09.920 | is my point where like it just it's it's it's just a race to

01:06:12.960 | the bottom. Yeah. All right. Last year, for our most

01:06:16.720 | anticipated trend, Chamath and I both picked austerity feels

01:06:21.200 | like that came to fruition.

01:06:22.720 | You're kidding, right? We did not see any austerity. We added

01:06:27.640 | like 2 trillion to the

01:06:28.960 | 34 trillion. I was talking about consumers and companies and

01:06:34.280 | individuals. consumers didn't didn't cut either. I mean, they

01:06:39.000 | kept spending and in fact, credit card debt is now at the

01:06:41.440 | highest level it's ever been. So where's the austerity?

01:06:43.720 | I think it's happening right now where people are maxed out.

01:06:48.000 | You're starting to see it happen with travel in some of those

01:06:51.040 | areas. But yeah, we could be off by six months on this one.

01:06:53.880 | Sachs, you said Trump's influence in the GOP wanes.

01:06:56.920 | That was definitely wrong. Yeah. That was wishful thinking.

01:07:00.800 | Freeberg, cell gene therapy for you. For you to know.

01:07:05.600 | You don't want him as your candidate.

01:07:08.360 | Well, I can explain that. I mean, at the end of 2022, we had

01:07:12.520 | that election that was supposed to be a red wave and it turned

01:07:14.560 | into a red puddle. Remember that? And it was a loser reason.

01:07:17.480 | Yeah, it was a big loser for the GOP. And a lot of the

01:07:20.400 | candidates, I'd say in particular, the candidates who

01:07:24.400 | had been endorsed and supported by Trump ended up losing not

01:07:27.280 | doing very well. So and then by contrast, it seemed like the one

01:07:31.120 | part of the country where the Republicans done incredibly well

01:07:34.400 | was in Florida, where obviously the Sanchez won by like 20

01:07:37.600 | points and added seats to their majority in the legislature. So

01:07:42.320 | it seemed like going into the year that the Sanchez was kind

01:07:46.520 | of the heir apparent and Trump's influence would wane. But like

01:07:49.760 | you said, that may have been wishful thinking is clearly not

01:07:52.080 | what's happened. But a big part of the reason why Trump's

01:07:57.000 | influence is greater than ever is because of all this lawfare,

01:07:59.760 | all these indictments against him and this prosecution and

01:08:03.640 | persecution of him by Biden and his minions. It's really I think

01:08:07.400 | galvanized the base to support Trump

01:08:09.960 | freeberg. We last year you said cell gene therapy becoming more

01:08:13.760 | mainstream. How did that one pan out your prediction? most

01:08:18.360 | infested trend?

01:08:19.160 | Are about mainstream, but I mean, we're seeing we've seen

01:08:21.880 | more approvals this year. It's been good. I mean, steady,

01:08:25.360 | steady pace of

01:08:26.720 | progress. So the sickle cell product come out, sickle cell

01:08:28.960 | came to market. Yep. There's a few more that got approved. So

01:08:31.200 | in cell therapy, so it's great. And we're seeing good progress

01:08:34.920 | there. And I remember there's like over 1000 in clinical. So

01:08:38.320 | there's this tidal wave coming to market soon of cell and gene

01:08:41.520 | therapies, they're going to have a profound effect on a lot of

01:08:44.520 | disease conditions. So really exciting.

01:08:46.400 | freeberg, you want to continue and tell us what you're most

01:08:48.800 | anticipated.

01:08:49.320 | Oh, so this year, I'm really excited. Based on the progress

01:08:52.360 | we've seen in 2023 of predictive models, AI driven discovery of

01:08:58.840 | novel molecules, materials and methods of production in

01:09:03.640 | biopharma, in chemical engineering, lots of new

01:09:09.240 | materials and new drugs that are actually coming out of software

01:09:13.760 | not coming out of brute force, wet lab discovery processing.

01:09:18.480 | And then we're also seeing these really amazing generative

01:09:20.840 | systems on production processes and chemistry that are going to

01:09:24.840 | unlock all of these new products and drop costs. Going back to

01:09:27.640 | the deflationary point, not only does this introduce new products

01:09:30.600 | into the world that are going to benefit humanity, but it reduces

01:09:33.480 | the cost of making them and reduces the footprint of making

01:09:35.840 | them. So there's a lot of great benefit coming from these

01:09:39.040 | predictive modeling tools that starting to percolate its way

01:09:41.400 | into these industries. So I'm excited about seeing what comes

01:09:43.560 | to market this year. I'm sure we're going to have a science

01:09:45.680 | corner at some point this year that says, look at this amazing

01:09:48.280 | new thing that was discovered in software, and it works. And it's

01:09:51.480 | going to be really cool.

01:09:52.160 | Okay, what do you got your mouth for your most anticipated trend

01:09:56.760 | of 2024? What are you most anticipating?

01:09:58.560 | I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin that

01:10:02.080 | has ever existed. We are probably days away from a series

01:10:08.720 | of ETFs being approved. And so this is the moment for Bitcoin

01:10:14.360 | to, to use that old term cross the chasm, and really see

01:10:20.960 | mainstream adoption where our parents and our grandparents

01:10:24.360 | understand what it is, can buy it, and then do buy it. And I

01:10:30.760 | think that if all of this comes to pass, Bitcoin will be a part

01:10:35.040 | of the traditional financial lexicon by the end of 2024. So

01:10:39.360 | that is my most anticipated trend of the year.

01:10:42.720 | What do you got sacks for your most implicit anticipated trend

01:10:45.480 | of the year sex,

01:10:46.280 | which most is a pretty good one. I think there's a version of

01:10:48.800 | that same thing in AI. I mean, I it's hard to know exactly what

01:10:52.440 | all the advancements are going to be in AI. But, you know, when

01:10:56.280 | we look back on it in five or 10 years, it's going to be pretty

01:10:59.760 | clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued.

01:11:04.440 | And so I can't say exactly what those breakthroughs are going to

01:11:07.680 | be this year. But there certainly are going to be some

01:11:10.760 | and I think we'll see those innovations continue to

01:11:14.240 | percolate down to more and more of the average sort of mainstream

01:11:17.920 | consumer.

01:11:18.600 | sacks once again, you and I are simpatico. I picked my most

01:11:23.760 | anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI

01:11:27.880 | advances and outsourcing. Basically, a lot of Americans

01:11:31.960 | don't want to work or they want to work from home or they want

01:11:34.600 | high salaries, we have record low unemployment. Thanks to

01:11:38.160 | Biden, I'm joking. But all of this is forcing people to build

01:11:43.320 | robots, AI, and software to route around, you know, and make

01:11:48.960 | things more efficient. And I think the number one trend I'm

01:11:52.280 | seeing from startups, and they tend to adopt this stuff early,

01:11:55.200 | is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for

01:11:59.520 | work, because it's so easy once you have a work from home,

01:12:03.040 | philosophy, or paradigm at your company, while adding somebody

01:12:07.920 | from Portugal, Manila, Argentina, Canada is the same as

01:12:11.520 | adding somebody from outside of New York City or Silicon Valley

01:12:14.920 | or LA, but you can do so at a third of the price for somebody

01:12:18.320 | maybe who really wants the work. And so I think efficiency is my

01:12:24.200 | most anticipated trend, but in the form of AI and outsourcing.

01:12:27.760 | Okay, now, media, everybody loves we do our most anticipated

01:12:33.000 | media for 2024. For last year, I had Oppenheimer Wow, that was

01:12:40.640 | great. Chamath you had doing part two that was delayed.

01:12:43.360 | Sachs, you also had Oppenheimer What did you think of Oppenheimer

01:12:46.280 | Sachs? Who did deliver for you? Have you seen it?

01:12:48.640 | I thought it was good. Not great. It was very long. It's

01:12:54.320 | not a movie I need to see a second time. Let's put it that

01:12:56.520 | way.

01:12:56.760 | Okay. And free bird use generative AI based media. For

01:13:00.640 | this year, I'm I have to confess I have inside information. So my

01:13:05.880 | prediction is going to be the winner. It turns out our

01:13:10.320 | favorite DJ is dropping a new album in 2024. And I got a

01:13:16.720 | release track. So my most anticipated media, I'll just

01:13:20.440 | play the road be released track here. What is this?

01:13:23.240 | According to NASA, there's a new look at Uranus.

01:13:26.800 | Uranus. Uranus.

01:13:29.640 | Talk about my anus.

01:13:33.000 | Uranus. Uranus.

01:13:37.000 | This is young Spielberg.

01:13:38.000 | This is young Spielberg. Coming at you the summer jam of the

01:13:43.040 | year. Uranus.

01:13:44.640 | It's a banger.

01:13:48.600 | There it is. Talk about my anus. Coming at you.

01:13:53.280 | That was a banger.

01:13:53.840 | He obviously likes the deep base of my voice.

01:13:56.640 | He does like the deep base of your voice. Yes. So that's a

01:14:00.720 | banger. That's gonna be I think that that's gonna carry it's

01:14:03.240 | gonna be the summer anthem. The new album from young Spielberg

01:14:07.000 | dropping that's the lead title track. Uranus coming at you. I

01:14:11.360 | also am looking forward to gladiator two is coming out

01:14:14.200 | really Scott Lucius, the nephew of comedists is a grown man.

01:14:17.840 | It's going to be awesome. I hope and Netflix is three body

01:14:21.040 | problem. If you haven't read the books, they're great. And

01:14:23.680 | that's being done by the Game of Thrones guys. That's gonna be

01:14:26.640 | awesome. And that's gonna be awesome.

01:14:29.120 | D&D

01:14:31.200 | Anyway, three body problem gladiator two for me.

01:14:34.000 | Once the books ran out, they were kind of

01:14:35.880 | Yeah.

01:14:36.600 | They were kind of on their own there and the show kind of

01:14:39.280 | declined.

01:14:39.800 | It was a terrible last season. In this case, the three body

01:14:43.840 | problem is a complete series and it's it's mind blowing in terms

01:14:46.400 | of its epicness.

01:14:47.800 | It's asked what's your most anticipated media of 2024? Is

01:14:52.080 | there a Putin biography coming out? Is it Alex Jones's

01:14:55.880 | biography 10 part series on Netflix? Looking forward to?

01:14:59.880 | Well, I agree with you about gladiator two. We actually have

01:15:03.200 | similar tastes in movies. I'm also looking forward to House of

01:15:05.680 | the Dragon season two. Oh, yeah. But one project I will give a

01:15:10.240 | little plug to is Jimmy Sony's book, the founders, which is the

01:15:14.640 | story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shaped Silicon

01:15:17.320 | Valley. Yes, that came out in 2022. The reason I'm mentioning

01:15:20.800 | it is because I optioned this book along with Jack Selby,

01:15:24.800 | who's another PayPal mafia alum who has a film company. And so

01:15:29.960 | we've optioned this and we have just made a deal with Drake's

01:15:32.720 | company called dream crew to turn this into some sort of

01:15:36.800 | television series could be done as a docu. Wait, did you say

01:15:39.880 | Drake, the musician Drake? Yeah, he actually has a very

01:15:42.600 | successful production company called dream crew. They're the

01:15:45.960 | producers of euphoria, which is this huge hit on HBO. Terrifying.

01:15:50.480 | So they've decided to it is kind of a terrifying show.

01:15:53.160 | It is terrifying.

01:15:56.280 | Terrifying.

01:15:57.520 | It's an incredible show, but terrifying. And yeah, it is

01:15:59.520 | scary. But anyway, it's a big hit. So they produced a lot of

01:16:03.840 | not just music, but television content. They're very interested

01:16:07.800 | in the story. And so we're partnering with them to create a

01:16:10.520 | TV show. So hopefully that comes together this year. Are you in

01:16:13.800 | production this year on it? Or is it

01:16:14.920 | now it's going to development this year?

01:16:16.520 | You get any credit sex? Yeah. Oh, how much does it cost the

01:16:21.520 | rest of us to get EP credits? 50 50 grand? Yeah. Is it a 50

01:16:27.240 | grand? Or is it a little

01:16:29.440 | this is this is a this is gonna be an expensive one. Oh, really?

01:16:33.320 | Well, who's your dream? Is it HBO is a dream or Netflix? Yeah.

01:16:36.480 | Who's on Netflix? Ultimately, a studio would make this right?

01:16:39.600 | You would want HBO or Netflix. I take it those are the top two in

01:16:42.840 | terms of making high quality stuff. They're really good.

01:16:45.120 | Yeah, there's no studios, too. But they'd be good. It could be

01:16:47.560 | Amazon Prime. I mean, there's a lot of these and who are you

01:16:49.920 | hoping to raise a young sack? Who would play a young question?

01:16:54.960 | That's a good question. Who would play a young David Sacks?

01:16:58.920 | What's the name of the guy that's dating Zendaya? What's

01:17:01.440 | your what's his name? Tom Holland. How about Tom? Peter

01:17:05.200 | Parker? Peter Parker? Yeah. How about Millie Bobby Brown for

01:17:08.640 | you? One guy can play a young sex that it would be Ryan

01:17:11.960 | Gosselin. Well, you guys really shooting the moon with us.

01:17:14.480 | Hmm. Tom Holland's interesting.

01:17:17.480 | Jekyll busy on the internet right now. He's gonna get

01:17:19.320 | looking. I'm looking on the internet for a young actor to

01:17:22.000 | play you. So I will let the audience come back to that.

01:17:24.880 | Let the audience decide who plays a young sex. Yeah.

01:17:27.600 | Chamathi looking forward to anything in media in 2024. Did

01:17:31.400 | you have anything for us to look out for?

01:17:33.960 | Jimmy Donaldson, Mr. Beast added 100 million subscribers on

01:17:37.960 | YouTube in 2023. More than two times the next largest channel.

01:17:44.440 | And if you watch his content, Mr. Beast channel, it's

01:17:48.160 | incredible. And that has become event based viewing now for

01:17:53.800 | hundreds of millions of people. So I am really excited to see

01:17:58.080 | what production value gets cranked out in 2024 from these

01:18:01.160 | guys. But my that's my most anticipated media is Mr. Beast

01:18:05.960 | and free bird. Yeah, anything you're looking forward to in

01:18:09.520 | the media space in 2024.

01:18:12.600 | I mean, I put AI generated news, which I think has become like an

01:18:17.000 | interesting Have you guys seen these where there's like a

01:18:18.920 | broadcaster that just tells you the news and they're like naked?

01:18:22.080 | I haven't seen that. No,

01:18:24.240 | that was the thing in the early days of theatre, right? Wasn't

01:18:26.680 | there like, or something? No, that was like, I'm good from

01:18:30.320 | there. News that was like naked news where like these people

01:18:33.520 | would be like in in the process of undressing as they as they

01:18:38.600 | like read the news. It was so stupid. Really?

01:18:40.680 | It was really dumb. But it did capture people's imagination

01:18:44.640 | naked news, you could basically watch newscasters naked read the

01:18:47.880 | news. I do think you're gonna see a lot of this real time

01:18:50.320 | generative video that's going to take as its input, news feeds

01:18:55.560 | and develop some understanding and then present it back to you

01:18:58.800 | in whatever visual format you want. And so you'll have your

01:19:02.040 | own personal newscaster presenting you the stuff that's

01:19:04.320 | interesting and be like, No, no, tell me less about the

01:19:06.040 | Middle East. Tell me more about Wall Street. Tell me more about

01:19:08.400 | tech. And you can basically interact with it and curate your

01:19:11.520 | own personal news feed. Whether that's through video or through

01:19:14.840 | text or through audio, you can have it presented to you any

01:19:17.240 | way you want. So I'm really excited for the data that

01:19:19.680 | happens. So I don't have to do scroll through Twitter all the

01:19:21.560 | time to get news. And I can have, you know, a personally

01:19:24.880 | curated newscaster to your point. One of the things that

01:19:29.840 | one of the tasks that I had this year was the kind of like, take

01:19:32.720 | a model and learn how to fine tune it. And Sonny and I we took

01:19:36.160 | stable diffusion and there's a mod to it called juggernaut Excel,

01:19:40.520 | which basically produces know the most beautiful people you've

01:19:44.080 | ever seen, like under any boundary condition, it doesn't

01:19:46.960 | matter what prompt you give handsome, the people that it

01:19:49.720 | generates are the most stunningly symmetrically

01:19:52.600 | beautiful people. And all it's going to take to your point is

01:19:56.880 | just put this stuff together next year. And you'll have these

01:20:00.720 | people that capture your attention and can keep your

01:20:03.000 | attention. And they'll tell you the news or whatever.

01:20:05.640 | And you can just say skip, you can say tell me more, you can

01:20:08.440 | say go back, you can say, Hey, I want to hear more, like double

01:20:11.160 | click on that story, and interact with it, it's going to

01:20:13.760 | be incredible. I do think it's it's going to happen in 2024,

01:20:16.640 | where a series of products will come out that start to look like

01:20:19.240 | this, and it'll get

01:20:20.000 | in terms of objective views. If that, as they're telling the

01:20:23.920 | news, you can have another agent that's basically scoring it and

01:20:27.000 | telling you how biased it is. Yeah. By the way, I'll tell you

01:20:30.400 | a crazy story yesterday. After Jason, Jason took that and I out

01:20:34.880 | yesterday, we had an epic day. It was incredible. Good times. I

01:20:38.240 | was totally gassed skiing. And so I took an app and I fell

01:20:42.600 | asleep for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I turned on the TV

01:20:46.080 | and I watched CNN for 20 minutes. Have you guys watched

01:20:49.960 | CNN? I can't watch more than a minute is so bad. It is all

01:20:55.280 | network news. Yeah, well, no, no, it's really bad, Jason. Like

01:20:58.520 | no, it's not my eyes. It is and just how inaccurate it is. If

01:21:02.640 | you were to watch it for an hour a day, you would have this

01:21:06.360 | totally lopsided view of what's going on in the world that is

01:21:08.640 | completely not accurate. But here's my here's my point.

01:21:10.960 | There's nobody fact checking CNN, just like there's nobody

01:21:12.960 | really fact checking Fox News. But my thought is these models

01:21:16.200 | and these AI tools should be the thing that presents objective

01:21:18.680 | news, and then actually just tells the truth.

01:21:21.160 | I disagree. I think what will happen is people will bias this

01:21:24.280 | the delivery to what they want to hear. And you'll end up

01:21:27.040 | having something that's going to become more of an echo chamber

01:21:29.560 | for you. I want to hear more about how x, y or z is so great.

01:21:32.960 | I want to hear less about the stuff that I don't agree with.

01:21:34.840 | And you're going to curate your news to exactly what's happened

01:21:37.480 | with social media. So I don't know if that's necessarily how

01:21:40.000 | this will evolve to my things. People don't like to hear what

01:21:42.560 | they don't believe or what they don't already know.

01:21:44.320 | I mean, they don't want to hear the truth. Yeah,

01:21:46.480 | they want to hear the truth that speaks to them. Their version

01:21:49.440 | of the truth.

01:21:49.880 | It's totally titillated, you know,

01:21:51.920 | it's about time I let you guys know that we ran an experiment

01:21:55.600 | right now. Chamath and Freiburg. I did this with Saks permission.

01:21:59.040 | But Saks is participation here today was actually his AI. This

01:22:02.760 | is an AI version of Saks that we programmed AI Saks. Can you

01:22:06.680 | reveal yourself and what training data went into this

01:22:10.640 | version of AI Saks? Can you give us something about your training

01:22:13.560 | data? AI Saks? What training data was used?

01:22:16.800 | If this is a bit you want to do, you're gonna have to give me

01:22:19.440 | more of a heads up.

01:22:20.400 | That would be hilarious, though, if we actually trained like a

01:22:24.760 | Saks model, and we had him come on and we tried to fool the

01:22:28.160 | audience.

01:22:28.560 | Can we just do a quick roundtable if you guys were to

01:22:30.960 | summarize your in one word or two words, your emotional

01:22:34.720 | condition for 2024? What would it be? Like, how are you feeling

01:22:38.440 | going into 2024? Saks?

01:22:40.520 | Oh, I feel fine. But if I were to describe 24 in one word, I

01:22:43.680 | would say the years can be turbulent. I feel I feel level.

01:22:48.480 | That's not me. But I feel like the world's gonna be very

01:22:50.880 | turbulent.

01:22:51.400 | J. Cal kind of exhilarated, enthusiastic about 2024. It

01:22:58.320 | feels like a lot of the cleanup work, you know that we had to do

01:23:02.760 | in 2023 2022. Like, I feel like a lot of that we've worked

01:23:08.640 | through it. And I'm finding a lot of optimistic. So I guess

01:23:12.640 | that would be, you know, enthusiastic and optimistic

01:23:15.520 | about 2024. I'm really excited to go to work. And create, I

01:23:19.480 | want to create some new things in 2024. I feel very creative,

01:23:22.080 | creative.

01:23:22.600 | Yeah, yeah, creative. I would say cautious and pensive. I think

01:23:28.120 | that just a lot of stuff is changing underfoot. And I'm

01:23:34.160 | personally not excited to make a bunch of decisions. Because I

01:23:39.720 | worry that those decisions will have to be remade or unmade.

01:23:43.120 | Even nine or 10 months later, so I, I'm just kind of like very

01:23:49.360 | pensive. I'm like, wow, a lot of stuff can change will change.

01:23:56.640 | Even just like, you know, and then free bird knows this. But

01:23:59.600 | like, you know, there's like some deals underfoot that like,

01:24:01.600 | I think for the industry as a lot, like as a whole are just

01:24:04.760 | really meaningful things. And so to do stuff right now, free

01:24:07.760 | bird makes me very anxious. So right. I'm really cautious and

01:24:12.080 | pensive. Right? Where are you at free bird?

01:24:14.960 | I'm excited. I'm enjoying my new job as CEO at Ohalo. There's so

01:24:19.800 | much cool stuff happening. I'm personally excited about it. So

01:24:22.080 | this is the most excited I've felt in many years in terms of

01:24:24.760 | my, my work. And then I would and I'm really excited to share

01:24:28.760 | what we've done next year, which I'll play earlier this year,

01:24:31.080 | which I'll do. I'll do it on the show first, obviously. And then

01:24:33.880 | looking outside of the world, I'm just a little cautious. I'm

01:24:37.280 | all nervous. I think there's a like, there's still a lot of

01:24:39.960 | tinderboxes out there. So I mean, you guys know, like, we

01:24:43.800 | joke about it. But I do think there's these like, little mouth

01:24:47.040 | traps that can get set off, and then they set off all the other

01:24:49.160 | mouse traps. So there's a couple of those things out there that

01:24:51.560 | I'm a little nervous about.

01:24:52.280 | But in the course of history, aren't there always conflicts in

01:24:55.400 | the world? And like, do you try to like, put them on a spectrum

01:24:58.400 | of like, there's always going to be conflict, there's always

01:25:00.400 | going to be

01:25:00.800 | never been this much debt in the world. And that's what makes

01:25:02.840 | me so nervous. Like, I think, yeah, no, I think they're

01:25:05.760 | related. So actual conflict relates to the debt load. And

01:25:10.480 | that's why I'm so nervous, because we've never been, you

01:25:13.080 | can't keep your societal fabric together. If you have a lot of

01:25:17.320 | debt, and you can't grow your economy. Those are two, that's a

01:25:20.280 | simple fact. And so that leads naturally to finding points of

01:25:24.560 | conflict with other nations and other places. Because, you know,

01:25:28.560 | you look for conflict elsewhere, there's a good chance that will

01:25:32.880 | the republicans will force some momentary temporary budget cuts

01:25:36.800 | in this next year. couple weeks, shutdown. Yeah, a couple weeks.

01:25:40.040 | 17. Two weeks away. Yeah.

01:25:42.120 | Yeah, that's pretty interesting. Under the terms of the debt

01:25:45.560 | ceiling increase that they agreed to last year, they're

01:25:48.360 | supposed to all agree on a new budget. And if they don't, then

01:25:52.720 | there's a 1% cut across the board on discretionary spending

01:25:55.840 | that goes into effect, right? If I were the republicans, why

01:25:59.040 | agree to a deal, you're never gonna do better than a 1% cut in

01:26:02.480 | discretionary spending. If you care about austerity, or just

01:26:05.720 | having any kind of reason in our spending, just take the 1% cut.

01:26:10.160 | Yep. Yes. Don't agree to anything.

01:26:12.120 | Agreed. That's the most likely path, right? At this point, I

01:26:14.680 | hope so. And you know, 1% cut cut is a rounding error. But the

01:26:18.360 | Washington elites are gonna shriek like crazy over that. I

01:26:21.360 | mean, they're gonna yeah, squeal over this minuscule cut, like we

01:26:25.600 | were slashing their budgets. Right. But that's all we're

01:26:28.760 | cutting. Yeah, exactly.

01:26:31.000 | They're cutting their finger now and they're crying. It's like

01:26:33.480 | just clipper tones.

01:26:35.160 | They're gonna have their arm when they got like a fingernail

01:26:38.040 | clip. Yeah, it's nothing. All right, I gotta run.

01:26:41.200 | All right, everybody. What an amazing 2023. We had. Here's to

01:26:44.680 | a great 2024. You got your prediction show and we'll be

01:26:47.040 | back with more news and a kind of classic all in episode next

01:26:50.920 | week. Have a great New Year. And we wish you all the best in

01:26:55.120 | 2024. Love you boys.

01:26:56.560 | Catch you. Bye bye.

01:26:57.600 | Let your winners ride.

01:27:00.480 | Rain Man David

01:27:03.000 | And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone

01:27:09.360 | crazy with it.

01:27:10.080 | Love you.

01:27:10.760 | West Side Queen of Kinwam

01:27:12.600 | besties are gone.

01:27:20.440 | dog taking a notice in your driveway.

01:27:24.960 | Oh,

01:27:25.280 | we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy

01:27:32.400 | because they're all just useless. It's like this like

01:27:34.240 | sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

01:27:36.480 | What?

01:27:38.040 | You're a bee.

01:27:39.080 | Bee.

01:27:39.360 | What?

01:27:39.960 | You're a bee.

01:27:40.480 | You're a bee.

01:27:41.240 | Bee.

01:27:41.560 | What?

01:27:42.160 | That's gonna be good. We need to get merch.

01:27:44.000 | Besties are back.

01:27:44.840 | I'm doing all in.

01:27:52.400 | I'm doing all in

01:27:54.400 | you

E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

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