2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker

00:00:00.000 | Welcome back to the all in podcast, everybody. I'm your

00:00:02.680 | host, Jason Calacanis, I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the

00:00:05.000 | projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my

00:00:07.640 | co hosts, and continue the grift, but it is 2025. And we

00:00:12.360 | are doing our best the awards. It's going to be amazing today.

00:00:16.040 | We've got so much to do today with us again for the second

00:00:18.720 | time, a truly amazing bestie Gavin Baker from a treatise

00:00:23.360 | capital. Am I correct? Is it a treatise capital?

00:00:27.280 | treatise management. Oh, a treatise management. Okay. And

00:00:31.520 | just call it House of Treaties. Oh, no, that's not gonna be

00:00:34.920 | trouble. IP.

00:00:35.680 | Gavin, welcome back to the program. Let us know. Just

00:00:40.240 | briefly, what is a treatise do?

00:00:42.040 | Thanks for having me here. Jason Chama. And Dave, a treatise

00:00:47.600 | where we're crossover firm, we invest publicly and privately in

00:00:51.140 | consumer intact. And we go from series A to make a cap.

00:00:55.520 | Got it. Okay, so you are capital allocate your place bets on

00:00:59.280 | technology on the most important new companies in the world. We'll

00:01:02.840 | get into that. And this is our prediction show that we did our

00:01:06.000 | bestie awards. How big is your firm, Gavin?

00:01:08.320 | Well, you just met the guy free, but you don't just ask him how

00:01:11.920 | big his firm is.

00:01:12.800 | Audience wants to know is this guy a player? Like, what's the

00:01:15.240 | deal? You know, roughly $4 billion.

00:01:17.440 | Okay. All right. So that's about a half an inch bigger than

00:01:21.920 | Shamoff. He's really worried now. Not that he's a size queen

00:01:26.320 | or anything.

00:01:26.820 | We're going to do a really great prediction show today. And we're

00:01:46.960 | going to do some super predictions this year, each

00:01:49.120 | bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the

00:01:51.620 | show. And we're going to take those super predictions to mouth

00:01:55.440 | and we're going to put them on Polly market. Yes, that's right.

00:01:59.080 | If you don't know, Polly market is a prediction market where

00:02:02.000 | people can place a wager a bet an investment in one or the

00:02:07.240 | other side. And there's

00:02:08.840 | my image good. It feels like it's blurry.

00:02:10.960 | It's a little blurry. That's the avalanche coming. And so I guess

00:02:15.380 | is that the MAGA avalanche? What is this avalanche? Is that

00:02:18.280 | people streaming across the border? What's the metaphor

00:02:20.200 | here? trim up? Is that the huge orgasm that you're about to lay

00:02:25.100 | down in 2025?

00:02:26.920 | Rocking my friend? No, no, this is a shout out to my friend

00:02:29.980 | Ruben Ostlund, who's the director of a bunch of really

00:02:33.980 | amazing movies, including the one behind me force measure.

00:02:37.900 | There you go. All right. We did an amazing partnership with

00:02:41.540 | Polly market. Freeberg, you want to detail the partnership in

00:02:43.900 | some way you I think you help work on it.

00:02:45.300 | Well, we obviously have talked to Shane at Polly market for

00:02:48.300 | some time, and we set up a deal with them where we could put our

00:02:52.000 | own markets up on the on the site. So we're going to talk

00:02:55.320 | about a couple of our predictions this year. And then

00:02:57.900 | Polly market will post them up on on their site and people can

00:03:01.740 | can trade them obviously x us and we're really excited about

00:03:06.100 | it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing

00:03:08.340 | and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create

00:03:11.460 | markets. So there'll be an all in section on Polly market where

00:03:13.900 | you can kind of go in and see the all in market. It's gonna be

00:03:15.660 | really cool.

00:03:16.740 | Awesome fan tastic. And so we just got we're all wrapping up

00:03:22.060 | our ski trip here. Nick, I understand there was some

00:03:25.020 | footage some found footage from the bestie skiing. Is that true?

00:03:29.380 | Oh, here we go. Look at this. Here I come down the mountain.

00:03:33.180 | Gavin, I want you to rate everybody skiing here. I come

00:03:36.180 | looking great. There comes off looking good. And then here

00:03:40.820 | comes somebody. I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does

00:03:45.100 | for that third person is a beep beep. Okay, here we go. Look at

00:03:50.100 | this technique coming down. Look at Shamar. Chamath you really

00:03:54.400 | advances last season. Look at him cutting those s turns.

00:03:57.020 | Gavin, what do you think?

00:03:57.860 | Listen to me, I, I made a very strategic decision to stop

00:04:04.140 | snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids. It is so hard

00:04:07.700 | to learn how to do something in your 40s. No, I mean, if you've

00:04:10.460 | never done it, but I do appreciate what you and your

00:04:12.420 | brother did for me last season. I learned a couple things. So

00:04:14.860 | it's been Yeah, my throat there with the black bomber. My third

00:04:17.780 | season was great.

00:04:18.540 | I am absolutely amazed at the progress you're making free

00:04:22.460 | bird. I'm amazed you made it onto the mountain you you were

00:04:25.300 | out there a number of days you're getting it done.

00:04:27.540 | I needed new boots and I tore my MCL last season. So I'm in it

00:04:32.500 | got really tweak when I went out there, but I'm good. It was

00:04:34.540 | great. I had a lot of fun. I mean, I think I haven't had four

00:04:36.860 | days. Yeah,

00:04:37.500 | you ski for days. Okay, I finished my 16th day yesterday,

00:04:40.700 | but I took today off just to get prepared here. Yeah, I got 16. I

00:04:43.500 | do the executive program, Gavin, I go out for an hour and a half

00:04:45.780 | to three hours, zip, zip, zip 10 runs, and I'm done. I only ski

00:04:49.100 | in the morning. Yeah, that's the way to do the same. And, and at

00:04:53.380 | 1215. Have lunch, relax, get a little work done. You need a

00:04:57.340 | healthy, healthy mix of operate ski and ski.

00:04:59.540 | Gavin, how would you compare yourself to what you just

00:05:03.220 | witnessed in that video? Your skiing ability? Where would you

00:05:06.300 | rank yourself? Clearly, it's me chamath freeberg in that

00:05:08.940 | ranking. Where would you live in the ranking?

00:05:12.380 | Well, I would say I make two observations. First, like I'm in

00:05:15.420 | the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism. Okay, I

00:05:18.780 | do have many, many 1000s of hours skiing. Great. Okay, and I

00:05:23.620 | would just leave I would just leave it at that. Yeah. Well,

00:05:27.340 | then we'll be going out with you next year. New bestie. All

00:05:31.140 | right. We got to get to it. We're to start off with politics.

00:05:35.060 | Gentlemen, we got to keep this moving because there's so many

00:05:37.140 | predictions. We're gonna do our 2025 prediction for biggest

00:05:41.220 | political winner. Now last year. Well, yeah, I think we got it

00:05:44.540 | kind of wrong. freeberg. You said independent third party in

00:05:47.740 | the US. And we did see some of that with, you know, the

00:05:51.460 | breakout of Robert Kennedy, maybe. Chamath, you said

00:05:55.820 | independent centrists. We didn't get there with that one. And I

00:05:58.500 | said dark horse presidential candidates. Maybe I get a

00:06:00.980 | quarter point credit there with

00:06:02.260 | wait, hold on. What do you mean? We didn't get their independent

00:06:04.620 | centrists won the election for Megan.

00:06:06.340 | Independent centers won the election. Really? That's what

00:06:09.220 | you believe? Yeah. Okay. I didn't think that it was the

00:06:12.700 | independence. But okay. I think independent centrist swung the

00:06:15.220 | election for Biden in 2020. And then I think they swung the

00:06:20.300 | election for Trump in 2024. Huh? Is that statistically correct?

00:06:24.100 | You think freebird? Do you buy that independent centrist did

00:06:27.020 | the election or Gavin? What do you think?

00:06:29.140 | I think it's right. Like I think a lot of there are a lot of

00:06:32.780 | people not just centrist, but a lot of people who had been

00:06:35.900 | lifelong democratic voters who voted for Trump. So I do think

00:06:41.260 | Trump won the centrist. Trump Trump won everything.

00:06:44.580 | Essentially, yeah. Okay. Chamath, who's your prediction

00:06:48.940 | for the biggest political winner of 2025?

00:06:50.580 | My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives. I

00:06:57.260 | think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025.

00:07:04.300 | And I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the

00:07:08.500 | reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left

00:07:11.860 | after austerity is to cut entitlements. And I think that

00:07:16.300 | in doing this, we're going to figure out how much waste fraud

00:07:20.580 | and abuse exists in the United States federal government. I

00:07:25.180 | think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state

00:07:28.540 | elections. And I think that the fiscal conservatives that have

00:07:32.940 | been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending

00:07:38.100 | will have their day in 2025.

00:07:40.260 | Okay, fiscal conservatives from Chamath Freeburg, your

00:07:43.820 | prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025.

00:07:46.700 | I also took a class based approach, I chose young

00:07:50.860 | candidates. So Trump's cabinet picks have an average age of 40

00:07:56.180 | to 45 years old, compared to the Biden cabinet where the average

00:08:00.020 | age is a little over 59, almost 60 years old. And I do think

00:08:04.100 | that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age

00:08:08.460 | range of political candidates shifting younger. So I think

00:08:12.620 | that this is something we should expect as candidates start to

00:08:15.020 | emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025. We'll start to see

00:08:19.220 | younger new names start to pop up that deliver resonant

00:08:22.860 | messages and aren't part of kind of the old guard of, you know,

00:08:26.540 | the aging political class. So I think that's a trend that's kind

00:08:29.740 | of underway now.

00:08:30.580 | Excellent young candidates, we got fiscal conservatives, young

00:08:33.300 | candidates, Gavin, what do you got for the 2025 prediction for

00:08:36.140 | biggest political winner?

00:08:36.940 | I would say Trump and centrism

00:08:39.180 | or my choice for 2025 is biggest political winner. I went with

00:08:43.260 | something similar to you, Friedberg, I said Gen X and the

00:08:46.780 | elder millennials, if you look at the notable Gen X

00:08:50.660 | appointments, you got Elon with Doge, you got sacks, obviously

00:08:54.180 | Marco Rubio, my god, it just goes down. Then if you look at

00:08:57.620 | the elder millennials, JD Vance, Vivek, Tulsi, just a lot of

00:09:02.100 | young people. And this is going to be absolutely fantastic, I

00:09:05.220 | think, because they're going to start thinking not just about

00:09:08.020 | themselves, as the boomers are doing with Social Security taxes,

00:09:12.140 | real estate, all the different issues that they tend to pick

00:09:15.180 | for themselves, they're going to start thinking about maybe their

00:09:17.660 | own kids and themselves. So yeah, it's obviously a sea

00:09:20.860 | changes underway. So there you have it, folks, for our

00:09:24.340 | predictions for political winner. Let's go with political

00:09:26.900 | loser here prediction for political loser. We'll start

00:09:29.500 | off with you, Gavin, we'll do this a little round robin here,

00:09:32.180 | we'll snake it around. Gavin, what do you think will be the

00:09:34.100 | biggest political loser of 2025?

00:09:36.860 | I think Putin, I think Putin is going to lose bigly. So if you

00:09:44.220 | are Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jinping, Russia is a client

00:09:47.740 | state of China at this point. And if you're Xi Jinping, what

00:09:52.860 | is happening is now a disaster for you, because Europe is

00:09:55.780 | starting to rearm, and which is which will only accelerate this

00:09:59.100 | year. That will allow America to take resources out of Europe,

00:10:04.020 | and put them in Japan and South Korea, and all over the

00:10:08.780 | Pacific. And that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you

00:10:12.660 | most want to do, which is reunify China and Taiwan or

00:10:18.020 | invade Taiwan. Let's call it what it is. And I just think Xi

00:10:23.060 | is going to begin decoupling from Putin. If you're Trump, you

00:10:27.180 | want to show that you're independent, that you're not

00:10:31.380 | enthralled to Putin in any way. So I think Trump is going to be

00:10:35.260 | a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's

00:10:41.020 | going to get a very, very, a deal that's very, very bad for

00:10:45.940 | Russia and Ukraine. And you know, you've lost half a million

00:10:48.740 | people. And for what?

00:10:51.460 | For what exactly? And it's 1000 over 1000 days into this. No

00:10:56.260 | buddy from the West hat, you know, in the NATO, or America,

00:10:59.980 | no, no soldiers have lost their lives from our side. We've just

00:11:03.340 | given them weapons. And so it's a humiliating defeat so far for

00:11:06.020 | Putin. I agree with you, Freiburg, your prediction for

00:11:08.580 | the biggest political loser of 2025. Freiburg's prediction, I'm

00:11:12.580 | going to predict the pro war neocons who are going to go head

00:11:17.900 | to head with the JD Vance and Elon's and others of the world.

00:11:22.460 | And I think that they're going to lose. And I think that there's

00:11:24.940 | going to be this kind of big crack in the establishment of

00:11:28.100 | this, this neocon movement that's been very pro conflict

00:11:32.620 | around the world. And we've heard it in the speeches and in

00:11:35.460 | the commentary from JD and others. And I think this is

00:11:38.260 | going to be the year it's all going to kind of come to a head.

00:11:40.220 | I think they're gonna end up on the losing side.

00:11:42.180 | Can I can't take the other side just just a little bit. So that's

00:11:47.100 | why I'm here. Yeah, I think it's right in reality. But I think

00:11:51.300 | you know, Trump said something very interesting about john

00:11:53.500 | Bolton. He said, the guy was absolutely crazy. But it was

00:11:57.340 | awesome having him in the room when you're negotiating deals,

00:11:59.940 | right? As people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the

00:12:02.820 | face, so excited to hit the nuclear button so excited to go

00:12:06.180 | to war, ended up with much better deals, right? So I think

00:12:09.860 | you're gonna see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump

00:12:13.540 | administration than anyone expects. And that's just to get

00:12:16.460 | a good deal for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine. And

00:12:20.500 | then it's to get China to kind of decouple from Russia. So I

00:12:24.020 | think the in reality, I think you're right, David, but I think

00:12:27.020 | there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're

00:12:30.660 | saying before you end up being wrecked.

00:12:32.500 | We already see it with Canada with NATO with Taiwan, there's a

00:12:37.260 | lot, you know, we're gonna do this or this, the tariffs,

00:12:40.460 | obviously, there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing

00:12:43.820 | leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully going to get

00:12:46.180 | the US good deals. We'll see.

00:12:48.580 | Shamath, you have a prediction for your 2025 biggest political

00:12:52.060 | loser prediction. It's hard to do.

00:12:53.580 | The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be

00:12:58.620 | progressivism. So November of last year, right after the

00:13:02.940 | election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at

00:13:07.020 | the Oxford Union. And my speech was a full throated defense of

00:13:12.420 | manga. But it was mostly an explanation of manga. And it was

00:13:18.940 | sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had

00:13:26.060 | been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to

00:13:30.020 | basically come on gun. And when you look at what's about to

00:13:33.300 | happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose

00:13:37.820 | massively to peer poly F. In Germany, a FD looks like they

00:13:43.620 | will win. In France, if there's a deadlock, and it goes into an

00:13:47.380 | election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win.

00:13:50.300 | And then in the UK, where you see this unfolding, child rape

00:13:54.740 | scandal, where allegedly upwards of hundreds of 1000s of young

00:13:59.260 | girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by

00:14:02.940 | organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not

00:14:07.700 | prosecuted for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out,

00:14:13.940 | by the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer. And if all of that

00:14:18.780 | comes to pass in the UK, I think you're going to see the Labour

00:14:21.980 | government fall. And I think you're going to see Nigel Farage

00:14:24.660 | win. So what do all of these countries look like, by the end

00:14:30.100 | of 25? It's very much a repudiation of this class based

00:14:35.220 | identity politics. And I think that has enormous ripple

00:14:38.660 | effects all throughout the world. And so I think the

00:14:41.540 | biggest political loser for 2025, I think stands to be

00:14:44.580 | progressivism, quote, unquote, but they will be labeled

00:14:47.380 | progressivism.

00:14:48.340 | I took something very similar. I said the racist vocal minority

00:14:53.060 | of each one of these parties, and there's a little bit of this

00:14:57.700 | on either side, you have de on one side, and then you just have

00:15:00.980 | outright racism on the other side. And it's probably 5% of

00:15:04.340 | MAGA and 5% of the left. And just to recap last year's

00:15:07.220 | political predictions for 2024. Our predictions for political

00:15:10.700 | loser was I said Netanyahu, Freeberg, you said Ukraine, and

00:15:14.420 | Sharmath, you said the Koch family, the GOP.

00:15:17.260 | Nailed that one. I nailed that one.

00:15:19.260 | Freeberg, any thoughts on last year's?

00:15:21.180 | We're in the Republican side more than the Koch family, do

00:15:25.140 | you think?

00:15:25.540 | I mean, explain for the audience, who maybe aren't as

00:15:28.900 | deep into it?

00:15:29.420 | Well, I think, essentially, 2024 was the end of the

00:15:33.820 | Republican Party as we knew it. And I think what stands in its

00:15:38.500 | place is what I would call the MAGA reflection of a coalition

00:15:43.060 | of people that will be housed under the label of

00:15:47.420 | republicanism, which is to say that these folks aren't

00:15:50.700 | necessarily Republicans, these folks are believers of the MAGA

00:15:54.980 | philosophy, they're just using the Republican vessel in order

00:15:58.220 | to run their candidates and get elected. And in that overturning

00:16:03.060 | of the status quo, what you had was this one family who was at

00:16:07.660 | the center for the last few decades of political machinery

00:16:12.060 | that essentially decided candidates that it decided

00:16:16.420 | agenda that it decided policy. And that was the Koch family,

00:16:19.500 | and they spent an enormous amount of money to get that,

00:16:22.460 | which they stood up, frankly, that literally the day after

00:16:26.260 | Citizens United happened in the Supreme Court. And I think that

00:16:30.300 | in that lens, those billions of dollars of investment have

00:16:34.580 | essentially gone to zero, because I don't think it means

00:16:37.020 | much of anything anymore. And if you look at the new class of

00:16:40.860 | donors who will decide, quote, unquote, Republican policy, it's

00:16:45.780 | going to be the, the Miriam Adelson's of the world, the

00:16:48.580 | Elon Musk's of the world. And that's very different than how I

00:16:52.220 | think the Kochs used to decide things.

00:16:54.340 | Do you think there's too much money in politics now, Gavin?

00:16:57.500 | I think there's too much money in politics now. It's, it's a

00:17:06.180 | good question. You know, I might feel very, very differently if I

00:17:11.660 | didn't agree so profoundly with with the largest donor in this

00:17:15.420 | political cycle. Yeah. I would say the reality is, is like the

00:17:22.020 | the money, as long as the money raised on each side is roughly

00:17:27.060 | equivalent. I don't think it really matters. That would, that

00:17:31.380 | would be my take. You just want some equivalence. That's all.

00:17:34.580 | All right, let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business

00:17:38.180 | winner. Freeberg, why don't you start us off biggest business

00:17:41.420 | winner for 2025? What's your prediction?

00:17:43.020 | So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point.

00:17:48.220 | That is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or

00:17:54.100 | robotics. If 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and

00:17:59.220 | the rollout of AI systems in software, I think 2025 will be

00:18:03.460 | the year of the robot. You know, there's a company we just placed

00:18:08.060 | an order today actually, out of China called Unitree. Gavin, have

00:18:13.660 | you looked at this company?

00:18:14.580 | Yeah, it's pretty wild, actually.

00:18:16.940 | It's an incredible business, incredible product. So their GO2

00:18:21.380 | robot is $1,600 has an API, here it is, you can run a payload on

00:18:26.220 | it, it's got LiDAR on it, it's got kind of intelligence

00:18:29.500 | guidance systems on it. This is the robot system that was used on

00:18:33.540 | some of those videos we looked at earlier this year, where there

00:18:35.660 | were machine guns mounted to the back. And it was basically a new

00:18:38.580 | kind of field soldier. It's an autonomous field soldier. But

00:18:41.900 | really, you can use it in scientific applications. We're

00:18:44.140 | looking at using them in our on our on our test farms where it

00:18:47.420 | can wander the farm and take images and report data back to

00:18:50.020 | us. And it's such a low cost at like less than $3,000. You can

00:18:53.820 | do some incredible things with it. So this business just raised

00:18:57.180 | a couple hundred million dollars last month, from mostly Chinese

00:19:00.340 | investors to Chinese company. And I think that there's going to

00:19:03.660 | be, you know, other similar type businesses, you know, kind of

00:19:07.340 | takes a long time for things to work. And then all of a sudden,

00:19:09.700 | they happen faster than you could have ever imagined. I

00:19:12.100 | think this is going to be the year where we're all going to

00:19:13.540 | look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like,

00:19:16.700 | Oh, my God, I can't believe this is here. So this could be the

00:19:20.260 | year.

00:19:20.500 | It's such a great strong choice for the biggest winner. And I

00:19:25.100 | think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt

00:19:27.260 | slowly, and then all at once. That's how these technology

00:19:29.860 | changes. And man, I would love to have one of these for the

00:19:31.620 | ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security.

00:19:34.820 | Sorry, Nick, pull up the you guys got to watch this. If you

00:19:36.820 | haven't seen it, Nick, find the video of the GO2 with the wheels

00:19:39.140 | on it. Managing Terrain. Oh, yeah. And everyone thought this

00:19:42.580 | was a BS video that it was like, CGI wasn't real. It was AI

00:19:45.900 | generated. But like, this thing is just incredible. Here it is.

00:19:50.140 | This is a real video of this thing. Yeah. And it could learn

00:19:54.580 | from an LLM to write like a large language model. Look at

00:19:57.620 | this. They teach it how to do something. Yeah. Gavin, is this

00:20:00.220 | real? Like, what's your real? Yeah, yeah. I want to get the G

00:20:04.380 | one, which is their humanoid robot. Yeah. So pull up the

00:20:07.460 | humanoid. It's really cool. And it's a little more expensive.

00:20:10.860 | Yeah. Yeah. I mean, $16,000 was the cost of a used Prius. Let's

00:20:15.220 | be honest, that's in spitting distance of being affordable.

00:20:18.220 | Look at this thing, 16 grand. And this thing, you can, you

00:20:22.740 | know, you can basically command it to do things for you in your

00:20:25.260 | house, or in your factory, or in your workplace.

00:20:29.340 | I knew you would do it. I was gonna say maybe we could get a

00:20:34.420 | poker dealer, maybe bow, you know, I wonder if this thing

00:20:37.420 | could deal. Do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for

00:20:42.060 | our all in holiday? Yes. One X. So my, my brother made an

00:20:46.100 | observation. He said, as soon as that robot came out, it's like

00:20:49.700 | everyone just wanted to abuse it. He's like, humans have this

00:20:52.620 | very interesting nature, where like the robot emerges, and all

00:20:56.060 | that humans want to do is like hurt the robot. It's like a

00:20:58.700 | very strange revelation of human behavior. Yeah, like it just,

00:21:02.860 | it's like, Oh, here's something I could dominate. Here's

00:21:04.860 | something I can tell it by it, we want to make sure that we're

00:21:09.260 | the top of the species here. And it doesn't feel like it's going

00:21:11.660 | to be for much longer. I mean, these things will kick our ass

00:21:13.860 | pretty soon.

00:21:14.420 | Anyway, these things are amazing. I think this is gonna

00:21:17.220 | be the year of the robot. That's my year of the robots is your

00:21:20.060 | prediction. I love it. Gavin, what do you got?

00:21:22.060 | profoundly agree. I think you're the robots inclusive of FSD. You

00:21:28.820 | know, I think FSD works today. And it's gonna, it's, it's gonna

00:21:33.220 | cross into mainstream adoption, where I already notice,

00:21:37.740 | particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night, I really,

00:21:41.020 | really prefer to have a Tesla. Just sometimes you get an Uber

00:21:44.380 | driver who's who's tired. And I just feel a lot safer if they

00:21:49.580 | have the FSD running. And then obviously, using it for yourself

00:21:53.420 | is amazing. But I think it's going to continue compounding at

00:21:57.540 | an accelerating rate. I think the in a lot of ways, what I'd

00:22:02.300 | say broadly is, I think for a while, it's going to be big

00:22:06.700 | businesses are winners, big businesses that use AI

00:22:10.060 | thoughtfully. And the reason is, is that with what is happening,

00:22:14.900 | what what Oh, three showed us open AI's new model, the

00:22:19.620 | combination of reasoning and test time compute. Like I think

00:22:24.060 | you're if you're a big business, and you can pay $1 million to

00:22:28.420 | let an AI think for six weeks about the most important

00:22:31.580 | question for your business. That's going to be a profound

00:22:35.980 | advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford

00:22:40.540 | that. And by the way, we are the other like inference compute is

00:22:43.940 | going to be the the kind of derivative winner of that we're

00:22:47.500 | going to run out of GPUs, accelerators compute in 2025,

00:22:53.140 | the same way we did in 23.

00:22:55.020 | Okay, so you're also long Nvidia and chip makers, grok, etc.

00:23:00.260 | Because we're finding new uses for all that compute.

00:23:04.580 | Absolutely. Okay, very good. Chamath, do you have a

00:23:08.700 | prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025? Sir?

00:23:11.900 | I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be

00:23:16.900 | dollar denominated stable coins. Oh, I'll make two points. In

00:23:22.700 | 2024. Two critical things happened. The first is that

00:23:29.220 | stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto

00:23:36.660 | volatility. And it started to be used for wholesale useful

00:23:42.300 | functions in running businesses. And there's an image here that

00:23:47.100 | starts to show that so independent of crypto

00:23:49.420 | volatility, what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up

00:23:53.540 | into the right. That's an incredibly important decoupling

00:23:57.460 | that happened in 2024. The second and this data is still

00:24:01.700 | just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat. stable coin

00:24:07.380 | usage, at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1

00:24:13.300 | billion transactions, that summed to $8.5 trillion of

00:24:21.100 | transaction volume. If you compare that to visa, over the

00:24:26.540 | same period, it was more than double visas, transaction

00:24:31.580 | volume. So I think what we have now is something that is

00:24:36.780 | fundamentally crossed a point of no return. Similar to how last

00:24:42.700 | year, I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in

00:24:46.300 | 2024. I would say that the big trend in 25 is stable coin

00:24:49.660 | usage, I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of

00:24:54.660 | visa and MasterCard, I think you're going to see an innumerable

00:24:59.340 | number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails. I think

00:25:06.740 | when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you're going

00:25:08.900 | to see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions

00:25:12.940 | and costs. You're already seeing cracks in consumer credit

00:25:19.420 | anyways, because of these high APRs, all of this stuff is going

00:25:22.780 | to come to a head in 2025. I think and I think stable coins

00:25:26.940 | could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25. I think it's just

00:25:31.060 | going to be an enormous market.

00:25:32.700 | Great choice. Should they be regulated? Chamath, we saw at

00:25:36.700 | some of these congressional hearings, Tether was kind of

00:25:39.340 | dragged for being the primary transfer and monetary tool for

00:25:45.420 | terrorism, for getting around sanctions and for human

00:25:48.780 | trafficking, should it be regulated? And how?

00:25:52.580 | I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should. But I think

00:25:56.580 | the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in

00:26:01.100 | between and on either side of all of these transactions. And

00:26:03.860 | so I think the knowledge is there. And there are a whole

00:26:07.740 | bunch of third party services that add that intelligence

00:26:10.140 | layer. I think the the thing to really question is, if you just

00:26:15.700 | took 300 basis points of drag, yes, out of the global economy,

00:26:22.060 | massive, how valuable would that be? And I think it would be

00:26:25.740 | valuable just in the United States alone, to the tune of a

00:26:29.180 | trillion dollars. So the idea that you wouldn't do it at this

00:26:32.700 | point, is somewhat quizzical to me. So I just think that the

00:26:38.140 | economic justification for this now is just so profound.

00:26:41.380 | Gavin, let me ask you a hard question there as well. Should

00:26:44.180 | the United States government give up the, let's face it, you

00:26:49.300 | know, they have a bit of a stranglehold, they've got a bit

00:26:51.540 | of a monopoly on US dollars, these things are a competitor.

00:26:56.540 | And we were sitting here on this program for the last couple

00:26:58.700 | years talking about the BRICS, and them starting their own

00:27:01.500 | currency. Aren't these in some ways similar to that, and they

00:27:05.380 | would take people off the USD standard? How do you look at

00:27:07.980 | that? Because that is the criticism that some people in

00:27:11.060 | power have put forward.

00:27:13.260 | I do, I do think that they might be very good for the world. But

00:27:17.780 | I do think they would be very bad for America, if they

00:27:20.700 | replaced, if some constellation of stable coins became the new

00:27:25.900 | reserve currency, it is such a, an advantage to be able to

00:27:31.580 | borrow in your own currency. And to give that up lightly, that

00:27:35.860 | just that means you control, you control the real size of your

00:27:41.700 | debt, at all times. Oh, wow, we have a big, big debt. I mean,

00:27:46.260 | this is a little bit like what we just did. Let's just have

00:27:49.020 | let's just let inflation run hot. And oh, wow, that debt's a

00:27:51.380 | lot smaller than it was.

00:27:52.620 | Effectively, so I think it would be a big mistake.

00:27:57.140 | Freeberg, you have any thoughts on it? We've been talking about

00:28:00.060 | currency here and a whole bunch over the last couple years. Any

00:28:03.340 | thoughts on stable coins and just the monopoly we have on it?

00:28:07.820 | I don't know enough about stable coins.

00:28:11.180 | Well, that'll be one of our big topics for the year. And we

00:28:12.940 | should definitely invite Jeremy Allaire from USD on or USDC,

00:28:17.420 | USDC.

00:28:18.260 | Jeremy Allaire. I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small

00:28:23.980 | little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our

00:28:30.180 | research. And we sit it on top of substack. Again, the tools

00:28:33.380 | aren't very good. And we use Stripe. And Jeremy reached out

00:28:37.620 | to me and he's like, I'll just rebuild all your payment rails

00:28:40.980 | on using US dollar stable coins. And it's a no brainer because

00:28:46.380 | I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in

00:28:49.220 | transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire

00:28:52.780 | somebody else or just pay the team more.

00:28:54.540 | And so I just think paying 10% to substack and the 3%, yeah.

00:28:59.300 | If it's obvious for me, it's obvious for everybody else.

00:29:01.660 | All right, my biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is

00:29:05.860 | Tesla and Google. I think this is going to be the year of AI and

00:29:09.740 | robotics, obviously. But I am just absolutely amazed at the

00:29:13.540 | comeback that Google has made with AI and I'm absolutely in

00:29:17.380 | awe of what Elon did with Colossus. If those of you don't

00:29:19.820 | know, Jensen Wang, Michael Dell, they all obviously participated

00:29:24.540 | in building out x AI. And they were shocked. They couldn't

00:29:28.540 | believe that they stood up 100,000 GPUs in under 45 days.

00:29:33.660 | Was it Gavin? Yeah, I'm thinking that neighborhood. It was a

00:29:37.180 | tremendous effort. And Tesla, right? Is that Tesla? Well, you

00:29:42.420 | want Tesla x AI and Google that cohort who are investing heavily

00:29:46.340 | in AI, those two, specifically those two, three names, I think

00:29:49.900 | are going to be the biggest winners next year, they're going

00:29:51.980 | to come out with some things that people didn't anticipate. I

00:29:55.340 | don't I don't think people are anticipating what Google's going

00:29:58.380 | to come out with because Gemini deep research, I keep telling

00:30:01.180 | people this and I'm using the app is so impressive. Drop what

00:30:05.580 | you're doing right now, pause the podcast, download Gemini, and

00:30:09.180 | just start playing with deep research on your desktop, pay

00:30:11.620 | the 20 bucks for it. It is mind blowing. It blows anything else

00:30:15.940 | in the market out of the water, period, full stop, it is a step

00:30:19.900 | function higher. All right, I'll just leave it at that.

00:30:23.340 | Jason, shouldn't you just go to the vibe of the podcast? Should

00:30:26.500 | you explain what it is? What?

00:30:28.500 | Okay, so what it does is good call. Good call. Yeah. If you

00:30:33.380 | wanted to create a model, let's say, and I did this, where I

00:30:35.460 | said, Hey, make me a model based upon what it would take to

00:30:38.780 | replace all the cars and trips in the United States with full

00:30:42.580 | self driving cars, what would that cost to do? And if you ask

00:30:46.580 | that to chat, GPT, or Brock, or, you know, Claude, it's going to

00:30:51.260 | give you a decent answer. What deep research does is it goes

00:30:54.420 | in, it figures out what the sub components of each of those

00:30:56.780 | questions would be. And then it fires off multiple threads. And

00:31:00.020 | then it searches the web in real time, which Google is

00:31:02.500 | extremely good at. And then it summarizes it gives citations,

00:31:06.740 | and it produces a report that looks like something that

00:31:08.820 | Gartner group McKinsey, Boston consulting group would have

00:31:11.780 | spent, I don't know, 30 days on Gavin, and a million dollars, a

00:31:16.020 | half million dollars. It's bonkers how good this is. But

00:31:20.180 | the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary. That's why

00:31:23.380 | chat GPT released something similar. That's 200 bucks a

00:31:25.780 | month, the one pro I think they call it. And then this one is

00:31:29.540 | like 20 bucks from Gemini. Anyway, given what Google has

00:31:33.620 | access to YouTube, your G drive, your Google Docs, etc, your

00:31:38.180 | Gmail, it's going to do things that you wouldn't anticipate.

00:31:41.060 | Like if you were asking this question, it might look in your

00:31:44.220 | Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions, or

00:31:47.660 | YouTube videos of channels you subscribe to. So this is going

00:31:51.220 | to I think, knock people's socks off and solve problems that

00:31:54.220 | people didn't know they had. Is that a pretty good explanation?

00:31:57.220 | Gavin? Yeah, it's great. For last year, our predictions for

00:32:00.580 | business winner, Chamath said bootstrapped or indoor

00:32:03.660 | profitable startups. I think that's a really great pick. And

00:32:05.700 | that came to pass. We're seeing some of those go public and

00:32:07.860 | raise money at higher valuations or not go out of business.

00:32:11.540 | Freeberg, you said commodities businesses. I'm not sure how

00:32:13.860 | that did. Do you know? Did you check on that pretty flat? Yeah,

00:32:17.380 | we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that I

00:32:20.700 | think were underlying that thesis. So got it. It ended up

00:32:24.860 | being, I'd say a loser relative to other indices you could have

00:32:27.900 | bought this year.

00:32:28.700 | I said training data owners like Reddit, New York Times, Google,

00:32:32.020 | etc. Reddit stock up to 24% in 2024. And they launched their

00:32:36.420 | own Reddit.

00:32:36.860 | Yeah, I think I got that one. New York Times stock is up as

00:32:40.620 | well. And they fired off that lawsuit with open AI. All right,

00:32:43.900 | now we're going to move on to the 2025 biggest business loser

00:32:47.740 | predictions in 2024. Chamath said, pro sports teams because

00:32:52.260 | they hit peak valuations. That's looking like a pretty good

00:32:54.140 | prediction. Freeberg, you said vertical SAS companies because

00:32:57.180 | of AI disruption. That's another one that seems like a great

00:33:00.060 | prediction. I said smartphone manufacturers, Apple stock was

00:33:03.300 | up 30% in 2024. But I think we've all seen that these

00:33:07.060 | smartphones aren't advancing. And people are taking their

00:33:10.420 | times the sales of those are down services are up.

00:33:12.420 | I would take the other side on pro sports teams. It feels like

00:33:15.380 | that market is about to be institutionalized. And funds are

00:33:20.540 | going to start buying pro sports teams. Okay, that ultimately,

00:33:24.380 | and ultimately, capital markets have way more resources than

00:33:26.900 | kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it for today. So I

00:33:31.620 | just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro

00:33:35.180 | sports teams is about to, you know, 10x 100. I think you're

00:33:39.540 | totally right. The reason I said that last year was it was pretty

00:33:43.260 | clear to me at the time. And the NBA was the canary in the coal

00:33:47.020 | mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports.

00:33:50.420 | And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into

00:33:54.940 | essentially rebounds and dunks, or three pointers. And the issue

00:34:00.260 | with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less

00:34:02.740 | interesting to watch. At the same time, because of the fact

00:34:06.820 | that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted

00:34:10.020 | value of these sports franchises. The TV deal was so

00:34:13.620 | enormous, that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore.

00:34:20.420 | Because people will hopscotch teams almost every year, because

00:34:24.380 | the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite

00:34:27.340 | honestly. And I think what happens is, sports will have a

00:34:31.340 | decent run until the next TV deals get done. And I think if

00:34:36.220 | you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that

00:34:41.180 | pool shrinks, if you have less viewership, and so you can sell

00:34:46.220 | the remaining ads less effectively, because there's

00:34:49.260 | just fewer of them. And then there's fewer buyers, and it

00:34:51.500 | shrinks yet again, then the dollar pool that the television

00:34:56.580 | networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for

00:34:59.940 | sports will go down. And the group that will be the most

00:35:03.860 | price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the

00:35:07.740 | non trophy buyer. So like, you know, when I bought into the

00:35:10.740 | Warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset. And I was price

00:35:13.740 | insensitive. But I agree with you that now that you have the

00:35:16.500 | PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, those

00:35:20.260 | folks are all DCFs. Those folks are all Excel models. I don't

00:35:23.820 | think that they're buying things for emotion. I don't think

00:35:26.740 | they've grown up thinking I want to own this thing, not using

00:35:29.820 | institutional LP dollars. So I just think that's why that's why

00:35:33.300 | I said that in 24. So I just

00:35:34.540 | on behalf of Phil Hummuth and I, we appreciate you made that

00:35:37.140 | vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your

00:35:40.020 | court side seats.

00:35:41.100 | Yeah, because I never went to the game with NBA players. I

00:35:44.780 | never went to the games. I should have gone to more games.

00:35:46.740 | I went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats. I

00:35:49.340 | got a red card one time. It's true. Is it true? You did? Oh,

00:35:53.180 | you know, I got up. No, I got a call. I got a call. I think it

00:35:56.580 | was from the Warriors or from the NBA, something to the effect

00:35:59.100 | of Trump. This guy that was sitting in your seats was almost

00:36:01.940 | kicked out. And I said, excuse me, because I knew that it was

00:36:04.940 | the next game in fairness. And he was like, job owning our own

00:36:09.220 | players. I was getting into it with Bogut and with David Lee.

00:36:12.940 | Because I was unbelievable. I told Steve Kerr, listen, you're

00:36:16.860 | up 30 on my next sit these guys down. This is Bush league. What

00:36:20.460 | if Steph Curry gets hurt out there like, and, you know, Bogut

00:36:23.620 | told me to shut up and Andre.

00:36:25.500 | Bogut told them to basically go pound sand and

00:36:28.220 | it was the funniest thing ever. Gavin. This is what happens when

00:36:32.220 | you get it's one of our friends. And he's one of our friends.

00:36:34.180 | So that's why it's so funny.

00:36:35.620 | But they can't they come over free bird and they tap you on

00:36:38.740 | the shoulder. I'm with my wife, she's mortified. And the guy

00:36:42.780 | hand you a card. And the card says you've been warned one time

00:36:48.060 | and one time only about abusive, you know, behavior. If we have

00:36:53.020 | to warn you one more time, you will be squirted out. So I look

00:36:56.300 | at the guy and I say, but he goes, read the card. I read the

00:36:59.380 | card. I say he goes, give me a thumbs up.

00:37:02.420 | You're not supposed to bend. Three years later, I'm sitting

00:37:07.980 | in the same seats, I'm interacting with Draymond

00:37:10.340 | during the finals games, and everybody's hokey dokey with it.

00:37:13.260 | When you say interacting, what do you mean when you say

00:37:15.300 | interact?

00:37:15.700 | Gavin wanted to make a point about what I just

00:37:17.700 | just just come back to Chamath because I for sure these private

00:37:21.340 | equity guys are DCFs. The NBA has been terribly managed. I

00:37:24.820 | give LeBron said they have a big problem. You know, and I'd

00:37:28.620 | separate the NBA is the worst managed NFL is probably the best

00:37:31.580 | managed. But the one kind of counterpoint I would say on the

00:37:34.420 | TV rights is Google bought Sunday ticket and are extremely

00:37:39.260 | happy with it. Amazon and Netflix also bought, you know,

00:37:44.940 | both bought NFL games and are really happy with them. And so I

00:37:48.460 | just think those three companies, it doesn't really

00:37:50.980 | matter to them if pharma ads go away. In 18 months, you're going

00:37:55.580 | to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person

00:37:59.540 | and show it to them. And if you're a high value user with a,

00:38:02.940 | you know, the Google knows that you're about to book a vacation,

00:38:06.020 | you know, they'll dynamically generate, you know, whatever,

00:38:08.980 | you know, hotel destinations you want and show click here. So I

00:38:12.460 | just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that

00:38:17.260 | they do, and I for sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of

00:38:22.260 | those franchises will start to decline. But I'm just the fact

00:38:26.900 | that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the

00:38:30.580 | sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them

00:38:33.580 | all. Every

00:38:34.980 | it may be maybe you're closer to this, but why wouldn't Apple,

00:38:40.580 | Amazon or Google just back up the truck to the NBA and say,

00:38:43.820 | we'll take the whole thing. And then anybody who's got an iPhone

00:38:46.620 | gets the NBA for free. And then everybody else has to pay and

00:38:50.580 | they figure it out in the back and they lose a, you know, 5

00:38:53.100 | billion, they make 2 billion, who cares? It's around here for

00:38:56.140 | Apple. I agree. And they, you know, I mean, they all all

00:39:00.340 | except for Apple, really, and Apple, they have, I think, an

00:39:03.020 | MLS deal. But they all kind of stuck their toe in the water.

00:39:06.300 | And I think they feel like, wow, the water's warm. Let's dive in.

00:39:10.060 | Okay. Yeah. And the new deal is an 11 year deal for the NBA. So

00:39:14.820 | these things don't come up that often. But we'll see over time,

00:39:17.740 | maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and

00:39:20.820 | inherit them. Okay, biggest business loser for 2025. What's

00:39:25.140 | your prediction? Gavin Baker,

00:39:26.580 | government service providers, you do not you do not want to

00:39:30.940 | have the United States government at any level is over

00:39:34.140 | 35% of your revenue.

00:39:35.580 | Good choice. Yes, obviously, in the age of doge, they might not

00:39:40.020 | be spending wildly. And they might actually look at the bill,

00:39:42.460 | they might check the bill.

00:39:43.660 | Crazy thought crazy. Yeah,

00:39:45.980 | crazy thought to actually check the bill. You never know.

00:39:47.900 | Chamath, who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of

00:39:51.340 | 2025?

00:39:53.740 | Well, this is a little bit

00:39:55.380 | precarious, but

00:39:58.820 | I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be. But

00:40:06.020 | I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the

00:40:13.180 | mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars. Okay. And

00:40:17.860 | the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying

00:40:21.860 | fundamentals of these companies. But I am a little bit worried.

00:40:26.460 | And I tweeted this a few days ago about just the general

00:40:29.700 | concentration of the top 789 10 companies in the indices. I

00:40:37.140 | think it's approaching 40%. And I think that when you look at

00:40:41.300 | these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a

00:40:46.180 | big drawdown. And unfortunately, I don't see how you can sort of,

00:40:54.140 | you know, inoculate yourself from that risk. So independent

00:40:57.460 | of the quality of these companies, because I think these

00:40:59.540 | companies are exceptional businesses. I do think you've

00:41:02.820 | just had too much concentration. And I think it is a setup to

00:41:07.540 | retrade and give back and in that it could even be 10%. But

00:41:12.060 | 10% in the mag eight will be a couple trillion bucks. And so on

00:41:16.380 | a one or two percent would be a lot. Yeah, an absolute dollar is

00:41:18.940 | a lot. Okay, freeberg, who do you predict? You predict max

00:41:21.620 | seven government service providers for you, Gavin

00:41:23.460 | freeberg, who do you predict will be the biggest business

00:41:25.580 | loser? I'm sort of on the same vein as Gavin, I went with the

00:41:30.420 | kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing,

00:41:34.180 | Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, defense 1.0, driven by kind of

00:41:37.660 | China dominance driven by us defense budgets that I think

00:41:40.660 | are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech

00:41:43.140 | oriented and ROI driven rationalization and pricing and

00:41:46.620 | spend. So the Palantir's and Andrews obviously the world will

00:41:49.780 | benefit. And I also just think like there's a lot of failure at

00:41:52.420 | scale with these businesses, they've gotten too clunky and

00:41:55.340 | too bureaucratic, as we've seen with Boeing from their space

00:41:58.780 | program failure in 2024, to the challenges with their, their

00:42:04.260 | airplane business, but I think that this government contracting

00:42:06.580 | business across the board is going to be deeply challenged

00:42:09.060 | this year, with all the new blood.

00:42:10.980 | So the cost plus are going to suffer is what you're saying and

00:42:14.260 | the angels will thrive.

00:42:15.860 | Would you guys add? Just a question? Would you guys add the

00:42:20.140 | traditional consulting companies into the mix as well? Like, if

00:42:23.780 | that's a good point, too, that's a great one. Yeah, we think what

00:42:26.820 | we talked about with deep like the one pros, the Tata's, the

00:42:30.020 | HCL, the Accenture in a sense, the Y's all these folks that are

00:42:35.340 | in real trouble with that, if that also happens.

00:42:37.820 | Yeah, you the efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt

00:42:42.980 | by their customers and their customers might not hire them

00:42:45.260 | when you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now

00:42:47.540 | advising and informing the federal government on how to run

00:42:49.940 | their their operations. I'm pretty sure that some of these

00:42:52.740 | service providers are gonna get washed out. So it's a good idea.

00:42:55.580 | The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way

00:42:59.620 | of saying time and materials. And time and materials is a

00:43:03.780 | fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage. And I think that all

00:43:08.420 | of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025. Because if

00:43:13.700 | you are buying, you know, $800 wastebaskets and, you know,

00:43:17.540 | $9,000 umbrella hangers, because of time and materials and all of

00:43:22.300 | this other crazy stuff that's in the system, and all of that gets

00:43:26.260 | washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models

00:43:28.940 | will will get put under severe stress

00:43:30.660 | the alignments, you know, you show me an incentive, I'll show

00:43:33.420 | you the outcome, the alignment of cost plus is to just keep

00:43:36.940 | being inefficient and, and waste. And these defense

00:43:40.980 | contractors are taking 60 7080% off the price of each piece of

00:43:45.660 | munitions or vehicle.

00:43:46.940 | Yeah.

00:43:48.940 | Cost was terrible. No, just cost is terrible.

00:43:52.620 | That's right. For my biggest business loser prediction, I had

00:43:55.700 | to go through a lot of the people I've criticized. I didn't

00:44:01.060 | start fights with over the past year, commercial real estate

00:44:03.940 | came to mind, because these leases are going to keep coming

00:44:06.340 | up. And I think like, they kick the can down the road a little

00:44:09.180 | bit. So I started there. Then I looked at micro strategies. And

00:44:12.860 | that made no sense to me that they were trading at two, three,

00:44:15.460 | four times the book value of their Bitcoin. And I think

00:44:18.340 | that's not sustainable. I looked at truth social, which is like,

00:44:21.940 | doing four or $5 million in revenue, and is valued at 7

00:44:25.980 | billion. That makes absolute no logical sense. But I think the

00:44:29.260 | one that is the most overpriced of all this, and I think is

00:44:32.860 | going to see their peak valuation is open AI. I think

00:44:38.620 | the headwinds for open AI are being absolutely under

00:44:43.740 | appreciated. Like I said before, my previous one, my previous

00:44:47.860 | prediction, Google is kicking ass x AI is just getting started

00:44:51.780 | and building out so much big iron. Microsoft was basically on

00:44:57.460 | another podcast, almost like laughing at open AI for selling

00:45:01.980 | them the source code and that they didn't even need open AI

00:45:04.420 | anymore, because they had it all they don't need them. And they

00:45:06.460 | own all the big iron. I think open AI is valuation made no

00:45:10.540 | sense. I don't think they're gonna be able to keep charging

00:45:13.100 | the prices they're charging. And I think AWS, Apple, Google, x AI

00:45:19.380 | this cohort are going to really take that $157 billion valuation

00:45:26.740 | and make it the peak valuation of the company. And I do I do

00:45:30.860 | think that there is a nonzero chance they could lose their

00:45:35.100 | process and these court cases of transferring $157 billion in

00:45:40.780 | value from a nonprofit into a for profit. I think that whole

00:45:44.220 | thing could blow up.

00:45:44.980 | It's a prediction is open AI will not be able to convert from

00:45:48.620 | nonprofit for profit in 2025.

00:45:50.380 | I think that that's a small piece of it. But that's a really

00:45:53.100 | interesting super prediction. Insert polymarket graphic here.

00:45:56.940 | Super prediction. Will open AI convert?

00:46:01.100 | Is that 2025? Yeah, by the way, you know, they're projecting I

00:46:04.900 | think, in the the leaked financials 12 billion revenue

00:46:08.860 | next year, J. Cal. So unlike a lot of the other things you're

00:46:11.420 | talking about, this is a real business with real revenue, real

00:46:13.820 | scale, real growth, real technology. It's a little bit

00:46:17.300 | distinct from kind of being a meme stock or being a

00:46:19.820 | exactly. That's why I'm picking it because I think it's easy to

00:46:22.900 | pick a meme stock, it's harder to pick a real company. But I do

00:46:26.740 | think that that revenue which you know, a lot of it is

00:46:29.820 | consumer and a lot of it is developers, the developers I

00:46:32.860 | know, all want to do open source, they don't want to have

00:46:35.740 | to be beholden to open AI and Sam Altman, they would much

00:46:39.580 | rather, and they're already setting their queries across

00:46:42.620 | multiple different stacks and trying different ones. I don't

00:46:45.260 | think there's any loyalty to open AI, or Gemini or any of

00:46:48.620 | these services, I think they'll just go with eventually, open

00:46:51.820 | source in many cases. So anyway, that's my thought on open AI.

00:46:54.500 | 2025 biggest business deal. What do you got your mouth? What's

00:46:59.220 | your biggest business deal for 2025? Prediction? Jamal? What do

00:47:01.980 | you got? You said Starlink to go public last year?

00:47:04.180 | Yeah, totally worked on that one. I think that this is the

00:47:10.340 | year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto

00:47:14.140 | OEMs. And I think that the the deal that happened at the end of

00:47:20.060 | 2024 with Honda, Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the

00:47:26.500 | industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of

00:47:30.020 | consolidation. I think that Tesla is just in an incredible

00:47:35.540 | position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality

00:47:38.900 | of their software, and the quality of their autonomy with

00:47:42.620 | FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful

00:47:50.900 | product releases, it's just going to trigger the realization

00:47:55.740 | by the public capital markets, that these auto OEMs are

00:47:59.380 | uninvestable. And I think the result of that will be a wave of

00:48:04.580 | auto mega mergers.

00:48:06.100 | And for people who don't know, Honda and Nissan signed an

00:48:10.420 | agreement to merge and Mitsubishi is involved, because

00:48:14.020 | they're part of I think Nissan's Alliance, this would obviously

00:48:16.860 | get rid of all of the redundancy.

00:48:19.540 | But I think this is going to touch like, like the European

00:48:22.580 | OEMs are in real trouble. You know, what does Volkswagen do?

00:48:25.740 | It's not clear what the Stellantis do. It's not clear.

00:48:29.660 | These are all businesses that are effectively melting

00:48:32.500 | icebergs. And so you know, typically melting iceberg

00:48:35.900 | businesses, when they get put under pressure from smart

00:48:39.180 | investors like Gavin, and and and his ilk, they're forced to

00:48:43.700 | merge.

00:48:44.140 | Gavin, you got to spread trade. Are you short these names?

00:48:48.180 | I, I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just

00:48:52.340 | say I agree 100% with Chamaf. I think they're gonna lose their

00:48:57.220 | Chinese business because they don't make competitive products

00:49:00.380 | anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing

00:49:04.380 | signs that they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese

00:49:07.660 | OEMs. And I think the only way that this doesn't happen to

00:49:12.700 | months, the only risk to Chamaf prediction is just government

00:49:16.460 | intervention, because they're such big employers. And, you

00:49:19.700 | know, often seen as national champions, but absent really

00:49:24.020 | significant government support. They're all in deep trouble.

00:49:27.740 | Okay, well done. Freeberg. Last year. You said there'd be some

00:49:33.900 | blockbuster deals for rights holders licensing data for AI

00:49:36.660 | training. And Reddit did in fact, sign two of them. So a

00:49:39.620 | great prediction from you for last year on biggest business

00:49:42.620 | deal. What do you got this year? See if you can go two for two.

00:49:45.020 | Was it just read it? I should probably look it up. I'll just

00:49:51.820 | follow on my year of the robot theme. I do think that there's

00:49:54.820 | going to be massive funding deals. Similar to what we saw

00:49:58.180 | this past year, for compute build out, I think we're going

00:50:00.980 | to see massive funding deals for hardware based manufacturing

00:50:04.820 | build out in the United States. And I think that those deals may

00:50:08.100 | take the form of kind of traditional equity from private

00:50:12.740 | markets, or they may have some component that includes

00:50:16.140 | government support to kind of motivate and drive and

00:50:20.100 | accelerate onshore manufacturing. We're not going

00:50:22.860 | to go in the US to making stuff that is like last century, I

00:50:26.780 | think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next

00:50:29.540 | decade, next century of of production. I think that's going

00:50:33.380 | to mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type

00:50:36.260 | systems that are going to become really critical for us,

00:50:38.900 | particularly with China, doing this massive ramp up and build

00:50:42.940 | out for both drones and robots, and autonomous vehicles. So I

00:50:47.380 | think we're going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this.

00:50:49.140 | And so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move

00:50:51.820 | in. So you'll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for

00:50:54.060 | hardware build out in the US.

00:50:55.260 | Gavin, what do you think should be the biggest business deal in

00:50:58.540 | 2025?

00:50:59.140 | I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be

00:51:02.100 | deals. I think there's going to you're going to see a tidal wave

00:51:04.860 | of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done.

00:51:08.460 | I think there's an enormous amount of pent up demand. So

00:51:13.380 | kind of point number one point number two, something will

00:51:15.340 | happen with Intel. And that will be big. And hopefully it's good

00:51:18.940 | for America. And then I do think you will see a lot of these

00:51:23.980 | frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. You

00:51:28.180 | know, I thought your points were well taken, Jason about you

00:51:30.820 | know, everything that, you know, Google is bringing to bear and

00:51:34.180 | X, X AI owns their own compute. When you guys can choose

00:51:37.940 | whichever one of these three you like, but the ultimate AI

00:51:41.620 | winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure

00:51:45.860 | costs, the lowest cost of compute. And definitionally, you

00:51:48.940 | can't be the low cost provider if you're renting your compute

00:51:52.140 | from someone else.

00:51:53.140 | Because of markups.

00:51:54.740 | Yeah, because there's a markup if you're buying your compute

00:51:57.380 | from Azure, or AWS, or Google, you are at a disadvantage

00:52:02.780 | relative to their internal services over time.

00:52:05.140 | So the full stack wins. Great prediction for me. Last year, my

00:52:12.540 | prediction was that ByteDance would go public or tick tock,

00:52:15.860 | we get divested or some version of this. We are but 18 days away

00:52:19.620 | from figuring out if the Supreme Court will do just that. My

00:52:22.780 | prediction for this year, I was looking at all the media

00:52:24.980 | companies, gentlemen, there were so many possibilities there.

00:52:28.140 | Warner Brothers, we talked about Apple and Disney, you know, a

00:52:32.060 | couple years ago, but I think the age of autonomy is here. And

00:52:36.380 | I think there is going to be some partnerships that will

00:52:40.780 | happen between Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo, and that

00:52:45.660 | cohort. And I would not be surprised to see Tesla could buy

00:52:49.380 | Uber right now for but 10% of its market cap. And Waymo could

00:52:53.460 | spin out and partner with Uber. Amazon could buy DoorDash fairly

00:52:57.940 | easily. And with the wrath of Khan being over the wrath of

00:53:01.900 | Lena Khan being over Gavin, it is possible that mega deals like

00:53:06.540 | these could go through. And if a couple of mega deals go through

00:53:10.180 | like this, whoever, you know, teams up here could win autonomy,

00:53:15.100 | delivery, food delivery, and e commerce. This is a ginormous

00:53:19.020 | space. And I think listen, I don't, I haven't spoken to

00:53:23.300 | obviously my friend about it. But Tesla buying DoorDash and

00:53:26.900 | Uber, or Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber could be the greatest

00:53:31.140 | service ever created if you're wanting to build a super app.

00:53:34.100 | The only thing I would add, and I think dovetails with what you

00:53:36.540 | said, and, and Friedberg's kind of year of the robot is

00:53:41.380 | autonomous drones. There's a company called zip line, which

00:53:44.100 | my firm is an investor in. Fantastic. Yeah, but autonomous

00:53:48.980 | drones, they really are the best way to deliver almost anything

00:53:52.780 | to suburban America. And then I think, over time, it will be

00:53:58.180 | sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well. So I

00:54:02.580 | just think that that might be a little bit of a wildcard for

00:54:05.660 | some of these delivery services.

00:54:07.580 | Well, and Amazon in I believe it's Texas is actually doing

00:54:11.460 | these now. They've got 60,000 SKUs is my understanding already

00:54:15.580 | being delivered, and they just drop it in your backyard. And

00:54:18.780 | it's there in 45 minutes.

00:54:19.900 | Well, we talked about this like two weeks ago, I, you know,

00:54:22.340 | Meituan in China has got this and they have food delivery

00:54:25.580 | happening with these drones. By the way, I'm just kind of

00:54:28.180 | dovetailing off of this, I think the other big deal potential in

00:54:30.660 | 2025. Just to be very specific is a deal with Waymo. You know,

00:54:35.060 | Waymo launched in SF in August 2023. And kind of an open market

00:54:38.700 | way. Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time.

00:54:43.260 | And in 15 months in November of 2024, Waymo is now a 22% market

00:54:48.660 | share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now

00:54:52.700 | down to 55. So Waymo aid into both Uber and Lyft market share

00:54:57.300 | by on the order of 12 points in just 15 months. And now they're

00:55:01.340 | launching in LA in Austin, all over the country. They're

00:55:04.380 | already in Phoenix. So I think you could see a massive and by

00:55:07.820 | the way, you know, they also just moved the hardware platform

00:55:10.100 | over to a new drop new device that supposedly going to bring

00:55:13.220 | the CAPEX significantly down for new launches. So you'll see much

00:55:16.860 | improved ROIC metrics, which means that there's a much kind

00:55:20.460 | of more efficient way to use capital to scale. So the system

00:55:23.580 | works, it is scaling, they are opening up in new markets, you

00:55:26.980 | could see something happen with Waymo this year, that could

00:55:29.660 | either be something like a massive financing and IPO, or a

00:55:32.780 | merger or acquisition with one of the big ride sharing

00:55:35.140 | companies. I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as

00:55:37.780 | I've thought about it a little bit. But I do think you could

00:55:39.820 | see a big deal with Waymo. This company is if you guys have not

00:55:43.100 | been in a Waymo, I think we all talked about this, but it's an

00:55:45.820 | incredible experience. And everyone I know, of every age

00:55:48.900 | group that has been for a ride in Waymo comes out of it saying

00:55:51.900 | that is the future. This is going to absolutely dominate how

00:55:54.340 | I'm going to get around clearly.

00:55:55.380 | Most people say it's slow right now and monotonous, and they

00:55:59.780 | don't like it. But you know, because it does take weird

00:56:02.100 | routes, but that'll be fixed over time, obviously. And just

00:56:05.660 | in case anybody thinks I'm talking my book here, I have

00:56:08.100 | exposure to all these, almost all these companies in a

00:56:10.860 | significant way, because I believe in the entire space, one

00:56:13.980 | and a half percent of rides in the US. And globally, it's less

00:56:17.420 | than 1% are done by ride sharing. The TAM is going to go

00:56:20.900 | to 20% in a very short period of time. And it's going to be across

00:56:25.180 | the board, there's gonna be a lot of winners here. And to my

00:56:28.660 | favorite Uber, obviously, they have deals with eight people,

00:56:31.580 | and it's a global market BYD produces cars for half the price

00:56:35.420 | of any other car manufacturer, and they have full self driving

00:56:38.620 | and it's pretty darn good from what I understand. So this is

00:56:40.980 | going to be a global competition. And that means if

00:56:44.260 | you want to win that global competition, something like

00:56:46.740 | Uber and DoorDash, Waymo, Amazon, BYD, you're going to see

00:56:50.900 | some interesting partnerships happen very quickly, I believe,

00:56:53.980 | because there's so much at stake. All right, any final

00:56:56.420 | thoughts on biggest business deals? I think I maybe have a

00:56:58.980 | good one here. consolidation in the transportation space. Okay,

00:57:02.940 | moving on to 2025. Most contrarian belief. Last year,

00:57:09.540 | enterprise value of open AI goes down from tomorrow. It roughly

00:57:12.780 | doubled. But I just picked it as my prediction. We're sim we're

00:57:17.460 | simpatico on what we think long term freeberg. You said

00:57:20.420 | increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for

00:57:23.060 | the first time since World War Two. Thank the Lord that that

00:57:26.700 | didn't happen. Again, this is contrarian beliefs. People are

00:57:28.900 | going out there. I didn't predict it was gonna happen. I

00:57:30.860 | just said the probability went up. It was it's a tough

00:57:32.900 | it's a tough thing to call.

00:57:33.940 | Well, this is most contrarian belief. I think it's fine. Dr.

00:57:36.660 | Doom strikes again. It's all good. I picked Apple would

00:57:39.860 | become the player in AI. And they did launch Apple

00:57:42.660 | intelligence. But it sucks. I mean, it sucks. It's terrible. I

00:57:49.020 | just bought the Google pixel fold nine. And the Gemini works

00:57:54.660 | perfectly. It does everything that Siri is supposed to do. If

00:57:57.700 | you say please play this song. If you say please download this

00:58:01.660 | app. If you say add this to my calendar, it does it and it does

00:58:05.020 | it in one fifth or 10th the amount of time that Apple takes.

00:58:09.900 | And Apple gets it wrong. Every time it's a piece of garbage.

00:58:15.220 | It's a disgrace. Disgrace the odd Apple.

00:58:18.100 | Apple intelligence is even worse than copilot which is saying

00:58:21.500 | something.

00:58:22.020 | Jason, would you like to announce? You bought the domain?

00:58:27.180 | Discuss the odd calm. I own it. I'm not selling it. Right now.

00:58:31.580 | If it redirects,

00:58:33.020 | Gavin, Gavin, do you have any direct to Jake what what word

00:58:37.420 | he's even saying when he says that discuss the odd? It's

00:58:41.900 | disgrace the odd is what people used to say in Brooklyn for

00:58:46.540 | somebody who is disgraceful. It is a Italian American slang.

00:58:51.540 | How do you spell it?

00:58:52.660 | No, you own the domain. You don't even know.

00:58:57.180 | D i s g r a z i a d discuss the odd.

00:59:01.380 | Yes. And if you type in discuss the odd, it goes to Jake Paul. I

00:59:06.100 | bought it when I was watching the Tyson fight. It was so

00:59:08.740 | disgraceful. I was saying to my brother Josh, the black bomber,

00:59:13.380 | this is just this and he just said discuss the odd and I just

00:59:16.140 | said I wonder if that's available as a domain. I'm

00:59:18.860 | redirecting discuss the odd right now Tim Cook to Apple

00:59:22.260 | intelligence the website.

00:59:24.060 | Do you guys think Tyson through that fight? That it was part of

00:59:27.500 | the deal?

00:59:27.980 | 1000% Yeah, so great person. I would love I think somebody said

00:59:32.860 | Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever, a

00:59:36.700 | redo, a rematch, a rematch of the fight, or the winner would

00:59:40.460 | make 50 million and then we'll see what's what.

00:59:42.660 | And the loser gets zero. Yeah, the loser gets zero. This is a

00:59:46.020 | good use of the kingdom's money. But people want to know we will

00:59:50.540 | all fly out there and do an all in episode from this.

00:59:53.940 | Did you see this thing? Where is it? Is it Logan Paul is fighting

00:59:57.580 | Conor McGregor in India, and Conor McGregor is going to get

01:00:01.860 | $250 million? What? Yeah, it's like, Oh, is it boxing? Or is it

01:00:07.980 | an MMR stunt? I think it's boxing and it's meant to sort of

01:00:11.620 | like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the

01:00:14.180 | country. But it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor. How

01:00:17.980 | did we get in on this grift?

01:00:19.340 | Freeberg versus Baker. Polly hoppity or versus Calacanis? Oh

01:00:24.180 | my gosh, we need to get in our own celebrity box. And who would

01:00:27.620 | we do? Come on, keep going. I gotta drive home. Let's go. Come

01:00:30.580 | on. It's fun this episode. chamath. What's your most

01:00:33.340 | contrarian belief prediction for 2025? We're going out on a limb

01:00:37.580 | here. This is going out on a limb, folks. Don't judge us. The

01:00:40.740 | spicier the take the better here. This is where you can go

01:00:42.700 | freestyle.

01:00:43.380 | I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the

01:00:48.380 | major mainline banks. A banking crisis. Wow, there's a small

01:00:54.060 | chance it happens. But that's a contrarian belief. Okay. Why?

01:00:57.220 | Why? box one? Well, I think if I had to kind of build the the

01:01:04.380 | case for this, it would be along the following lines. If you add

01:01:08.580 | it up, the total indebtedness of Pax America, which is US

01:01:14.660 | government debt, plus corporates, plus mortgage debt.

01:01:20.100 | And you actually sensitize it to rates that are around, call it

01:01:29.500 | 5%. What you quickly realize is on a dollar basis, that because

01:01:37.340 | the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded.

01:01:42.500 | That 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually

01:01:49.420 | equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago, because we only had a

01:01:55.220 | fraction of that debt on a dollar basis. And so the pain

01:02:00.060 | that you feel at five or 6% can very quickly ripple through the

01:02:04.020 | economy, the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago

01:02:08.580 | were 10%. And so I think that when people look at rates, they

01:02:12.900 | forget the actual total dollar impact, because when somebody or

01:02:18.180 | collectively, when we have to come up with three or $4

01:02:21.780 | trillion, how do you do that? And so I think that there is a

01:02:25.980 | non trivial risk. I think it's small. This is why it's

01:02:28.820 | contrarian. But I think it's a, it's a risk where if you have a

01:02:32.660 | mark to market problem, if you have a credit default problem

01:02:39.220 | amongst the corporates, or amongst enough individual

01:02:42.140 | consumers, what I think that happens more than anything else

01:02:47.980 | is that it triggers a reserve issue. And I think that the

01:02:52.620 | reserve issue in one of these mainline banks, I have two that

01:02:58.180 | I think are more obvious than others, but I don't want to name

01:03:00.700 | them. Okay. Fair enough. I love this contraintake. This is

01:03:04.340 | great. I think that there's a there's a small but reasonable

01:03:07.980 | chance that that happens. I love it. It's a great, great

01:03:10.300 | contrarian take small chance, but big impact. Gavin, what do

01:03:14.180 | you got? Well, first, you want to respond, Jim and I deep

01:03:16.580 | research to just ask it to look at the total, you know, Pax

01:03:20.980 | Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market

01:03:26.020 | interest rate to it. And then look at that, you know, interest

01:03:30.380 | expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time.

01:03:33.500 | That would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don't I

01:03:38.780 | don't, I don't disagree with Jamal. You know, any, anything is

01:03:44.780 | possible. And, you know, there, there could for sure be be a

01:03:49.780 | problem at a big bank. I don't know that I would say it's

01:03:53.100 | likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian

01:03:56.180 | belief. So I think that America over the next, at some point

01:04:00.060 | over the next four years, will print at least one year of

01:04:02.940 | greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth. I think

01:04:08.540 | productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and

01:04:10.780 | deregulation. And I think there could be a world where this is

01:04:15.460 | the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you

01:04:19.540 | know, five or 6% versus two or 3%. But it is a massive

01:04:23.260 | difference. You know, at five or 6%, you know, the economy is

01:04:28.300 | doubling. You'll call it every 12 years, roughly, first 24

01:04:34.100 | years at 3%. I mean, it's just it's a massive difference in

01:04:38.300 | terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual

01:04:40.540 | Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I

01:04:44.820 | don't know when that will happen. I think you will see the

01:04:47.140 | frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to

01:04:50.860 | prevent knowledge distillation, and their IP effectively being

01:04:54.420 | stolen. You know, deep seek from China, it was really

01:04:56.820 | impressive. But I think such GPT four. Yeah. So I just think

01:05:02.740 | you will, you'll see the labs keep their best models in house,

01:05:06.020 | distill them and put small small models out. Over time.

01:05:11.140 | February, do you have a contrarian belief and I did put

01:05:14.100 | into Gemini advanced 1.5 pro with deep research, the

01:05:17.060 | question which banks have the greatest biggest chance of being

01:05:19.100 | insolvent, or having a financial collapse or crisis. So it's

01:05:22.860 | doing its research right now. It'll be done in about 10

01:05:24.780 | minutes, I think, which gives you an idea of how much research

01:05:27.900 | it does. It's nuts.

01:05:29.060 | February, what do you got?

01:05:31.060 | I think that the the party line is that socialism was defeated

01:05:36.220 | in this election cycle, and that there was a resounding kind of

01:05:41.420 | vote from the American populace against socialism. And I

01:05:45.540 | actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise

01:05:48.460 | a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United

01:05:53.180 | States. Okay, I think that we are going to see as Gavin

01:05:56.540 | pointed out an acceleration of progress, we're going to see an

01:05:58.820 | unleashing of economic growth, because of deregulation and AI.

01:06:04.420 | But I do think that some markets we've also talked about the

01:06:08.500 | downfall of us automate manufacturing, and some other

01:06:12.260 | industries, there's going to be a real significant shift in

01:06:15.500 | 2025. Some industries and some companies are going to be huge

01:06:19.100 | winners, and some companies are going to be huge losers, there's

01:06:21.940 | going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big

01:06:24.020 | winners, and some parts of the economy that are going to be big

01:06:26.020 | losers. When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are

01:06:29.660 | often large contingents of people that are left behind. And

01:06:32.900 | when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and

01:06:35.820 | the socialist movements gain steam. When Peron came to power

01:06:40.420 | in Argentina, in the mid 1940s, that country was experiencing

01:06:45.340 | 8% GDP growth to Gavin's point about accelerating growth. Growth

01:06:50.100 | does not mean that it benefits everyone equally. And I think

01:06:52.980 | that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to

01:06:55.580 | 100 billionaires to the world's first trillionaire. And it will

01:06:58.940 | also start to fuel this rise. So I think that we will see an

01:07:02.100 | increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in

01:07:04.820 | the United States. By the way, particularly with doge cutting

01:07:08.300 | government funding to programs that benefit individuals,

01:07:11.060 | employment being cut in in the federal government and through

01:07:14.180 | federal contractors, there's just a lot of rapid change

01:07:17.380 | that's about to kind of really upset a lot of people.

01:07:19.980 | I totally agree. I think AI, you know, people are fond of saying

01:07:24.940 | that we're in a world of AGI or ASI, money will be meaningless.

01:07:29.540 | But for a short period of time, money will matter more than it's

01:07:33.660 | ever mattered before. Because the amount of money you can

01:07:37.460 | spend on AI on test time compute is going to give you a massive

01:07:43.660 | advantage, whether you're a company or an individual. So I

01:07:46.100 | just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some

01:07:50.340 | period of time. Yeah, I hope I'm wrong. Like, I hope you know, AI

01:07:54.500 | leads to you know, all sorts of, you know, opportunities being

01:07:57.060 | created for a lot.

01:07:58.260 | There's just going to be a lot of employment and income

01:08:02.420 | disruption in 2025. And it's going to fuel socialist

01:08:06.700 | movements. And I think that this is going to be a more difficult

01:08:09.060 | year, everyone thinks it's kind of rosy red, because we're all

01:08:12.340 | working in the tech industry in Silicon Valley. But the reality

01:08:15.500 | on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than any

01:08:18.540 | of us anticipate. And that could make for a very difficult

01:08:21.500 | political environment and social environment is a great

01:08:23.980 | contrarian prediction, freeberg, I would build on it that I don't

01:08:27.180 | think this is just going to hit blue collar. I'm seeing in the

01:08:30.620 | venture industry and in entrepreneurs, all over the

01:08:34.020 | place, people who are super qualified, who had six figure

01:08:37.260 | salaries, even to mid six figure salaries, not be able to find

01:08:40.580 | work, or not find work at previous compensation levels.

01:08:43.620 | Why? Because people are doing more with less, it's much better

01:08:47.300 | to invest and do deep research and AI and automate stuff or

01:08:52.100 | deprecate stuff, or delegate stuff to other regions than to

01:08:56.900 | hire Americans in some cases. And that philosophy that's

01:09:00.940 | happening isn't just going to hit truck drivers, it's going to

01:09:03.420 | hit developers, potentially designers, writers, or what is

01:09:07.140 | the contrarian part of what you guys are saying? What's the

01:09:09.980 | contrarian part socialism, socialism, socialism on the

01:09:13.460 | rise?

01:09:13.980 | It's pretty interesting.

01:09:16.100 | Because I think I don't think it's a trend. You think it's

01:09:18.940 | obvious? I think the party line has been that socialism was

01:09:22.300 | getting knocked back this year with this election cycle. And it

01:09:26.020 | was a mandate against socialism, and some of the socialist

01:09:28.940 | policies that were being put forth. And I think that the

01:09:32.100 | contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong.

01:09:34.820 | And socialism is going to be on a big rise.

01:09:37.300 | But just to build on what you said earlier, like, what woke

01:09:40.220 | ism and progressivism will decouple from socialism? I

01:09:44.220 | think woke ism and progressivism, you know, will be

01:09:48.500 | on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the

01:09:51.020 | government, like policy? Yeah, yeah.

01:09:55.860 | Why don't we have universal? Why don't we have universal

01:09:58.900 | healthcare? Why don't we have pre k? Or, you know, in every

01:10:02.060 | state, and you know, these kind of things? I think Americans are

01:10:05.540 | right to ask those questions. Now, other behaviors are

01:10:08.980 | obviously abhorrent, but you do have the right to ask why we

01:10:11.540 | can't figure this out, and why our government has failed us in

01:10:14.620 | something as basic as, you know, providing after school programs

01:10:18.860 | or universal healthcare or universal childcare, these

01:10:21.940 | things are easy to do. And when you see everybody getting rich

01:10:25.220 | and the polarization of wealth, I can understand people saying,

01:10:27.780 | why don't we have these basic things when other countries have

01:10:30.580 | them? It's a reasonable

01:10:31.340 | you're making the assumptive statement that these things are

01:10:33.860 | easy to do, which was what was said about education. It's like,

01:10:36.540 | let's give everyone access to college education with the

01:10:39.940 | federal student loan programs. And what happened was, when we

01:10:42.980 | introduced those programs, those schools started to charge more,

01:10:46.660 | and the tuition went up every year. And eventually, the cost

01:10:49.460 | of education inflated away from the benefit you're getting from

01:10:52.180 | it. And this has happened universally in healthcare. It

01:10:54.980 | has happened in housing, it has happened in education, it has

01:10:58.180 | happened in every market where the government has stepped in to

01:11:03.300 | provide capital to support that market. The market basically no

01:11:06.900 | longer operates in a freeway.

01:11:08.300 | I appreciate the challenge to it. And I'll explain to you why

01:11:11.060 | I believe it's easy. If you just put this down to the states, and

01:11:14.140 | you make it more competitive, I think you solve the problem. If

01:11:16.460 | you introduce school vouchers, and you create competition, if

01:11:19.380 | you take universal healthcare, and maybe you run some

01:11:21.380 | experiments where different states get that money from the

01:11:24.580 | federal government, and let them run 50 different experiments, I

01:11:27.860 | think we could actually solve some of these problems. But

01:11:29.820 | you're correct. Anything that the federal government does, it

01:11:32.180 | eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient. My most contrarian

01:11:34.820 | belief was open AI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to

01:11:40.220 | for profit transition and becomes the number four player

01:11:43.780 | in AI. The total collapse of open AI is my most contrarian

01:11:48.860 | prediction for

01:11:49.460 | that's a good one. The total collapse,

01:11:52.220 | doubling and tripling down. Hey, man, I'm trying to make this

01:11:56.580 | spicy. It's a spicy category. Let's do it. I got it. Yeah, I

01:11:59.340 | got it. I think he's great. I mean, he'll run for president.

01:12:02.660 | Jekyll. Maybe he's great. I don't know everybody who all his

01:12:05.580 | friends left the company. Maybe he's great. Maybe he's a stand

01:12:08.900 | up guy. I mean, everybody quit. But maybe he's Gavin. Are you

01:12:13.220 | familiar with Jekyll's prediction that Jeff Bezos is

01:12:15.100 | gonna run for president? It was that was my predicting I wanted

01:12:18.740 | him to I wanted to and he bought Washington Post and he quit the

01:12:22.220 | Amazon job. And he bought a house in Washington, DC. And he

01:12:26.260 | went down to Mar-a-Lago. Don't be surprised if Bezos after he

01:12:30.340 | gets through his midlife crisis and going to Coachella and

01:12:34.820 | partying and having a great time which he deserves. If he comes

01:12:37.980 | back and says you know what, I want to serve my country. I

01:12:39.820 | still

01:12:40.100 | post or do you think he's gonna hold on to it?

01:12:42.980 | Well, let's stick with that one because

01:12:45.500 | Jeff Bezos will sell the Washington Post in 2025. That's

01:12:49.780 | a good poly market. Yeah, sell it to Kara Swisher and sell it

01:12:52.260 | to Karen Swisher. Right into the ground. They'll double down.

01:12:57.780 | Okay, best performing asset. Everybody loves this one best

01:13:02.340 | performing asset. Hey, we can we can put a price on this best

01:13:05.700 | performing asset last year. Chamath did a spread trade. He

01:13:08.340 | was long public tech stocks, short private late stage tech

01:13:12.300 | stock index. NASDAQ top 100 tech stock ETF was up 10% 2024

01:13:17.300 | Freiburg. You went with your uranium ETF, not Uranus,

01:13:21.540 | Uranium ETF, and your a URA was down 1% in 2024.

01:13:27.700 | You know what, I looked at the components of that ETF last

01:13:32.020 | week when we were preparing for this. It has absolute junk in

01:13:35.340 | it. Like it was not the right, the right right way to kind of

01:13:38.860 | trade uranium. But anyway, that was my my outcome for the year.

01:13:44.780 | I went with the on demand economy with Uber, Airbnb and

01:13:49.140 | DoorDash. Uber was up 30%. But now it's only up 3% with the

01:13:52.740 | robo taxi headwind. Airbnb is basically flat. And DoorDash up

01:13:56.700 | big 74% shout out to Stanley Tang. Great job to the team over

01:14:00.220 | there. So Chamath get your flowers there. Let's do our best

01:14:02.940 | performing asset. Let's let our guests go first. Gavin, what

01:14:06.020 | would be the best performing asset of 2025?

01:14:08.820 | I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going

01:14:13.060 | back to we're gonna we're gonna run out of compute. It's, it's,

01:14:17.980 | it's actually a pretty shocking stat. high bandwidth memory is a

01:14:23.860 | bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan sim is. And

01:14:28.540 | today, there's two companies that can make it. Hynix and

01:14:31.860 | Micron. We'll see if Samsung gets their act together. But

01:14:35.860 | HBM memory, it's an NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Triniums. And

01:14:43.220 | particularly in a world of test time compute, and inference,

01:14:47.060 | being so important. high bandwidth memory is arguably

01:14:51.700 | more important than it ever was. And it's been, it's been sold

01:14:57.020 | out for the last two years. So high bandwidth memory would be

01:14:59.940 | my pick. Okay, good pick. Great pick. In fact, what do you got

01:15:05.380 | Shema? So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick

01:15:09.180 | that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero. Okay. And six out

01:15:22.380 | of the remaining eight times, you make 10 extra money. And

01:15:28.540 | then the final two times you make anywhere between 100 to 1000

01:15:31.780 | extra money. Okay, sounds like okay, so it this is a loser

01:15:36.260 | trade. Okay. But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am

01:15:44.500 | buying insurance, I'm buying insurance. Using credit default

01:15:48.900 | swaps, I'm buying what's called protection, that there is no

01:15:52.980 | default event in 2025. Again, I'm not going to tell you which

01:15:59.860 | companies or what maturities but just the general idea for me is

01:16:05.740 | I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025. So

01:16:11.180 | that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance

01:16:14.860 | to do their work in peace. I think that there is a small

01:16:19.380 | chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen.

01:16:25.700 | I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of 100 loses

01:16:28.980 | money. I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the

01:16:34.060 | best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of

01:16:37.140 | Ackman buying CDS right at the right at the beginning of the

01:16:42.060 | COVID crisis. How does one buy those, you have to have an ISDA,

01:16:45.540 | you talk to the big investment banks, and they'll price it out

01:16:48.420 | for you. But again, I just want to be clear, this is not

01:16:51.260 | something I think will happen. It's not something I want to

01:16:53.660 | happen. But I do think that if you look back, in terms of just

01:16:58.780 | the tonnage of dollars you can make, and the massive risk

01:17:02.060 | asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the

01:17:05.220 | concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross

01:17:08.380 | amount of debt that we have, when you look at rate spiking,

01:17:13.300 | all of these things, say having a little insurance may not be a

01:17:18.180 | bad thing. So I hope

01:17:20.420 | Gavin, you're nodding. Gavin, you're nodding. You want to

01:17:23.140 | know, I was just I was just thinking, I mean, if you're, if

01:17:26.340 | Chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely

01:17:29.420 | want to own CDS. Yeah, I mean, you'll forget 100x, you'll get

01:17:34.300 | 1000x, 10,000x.

01:17:35.900 | What do you got, Freeberg?

01:17:36.980 | So I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs.

01:17:46.540 | Wow.

01:17:47.820 | I think that the market, everyone's kind of dumped

01:17:50.220 | Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years. Everyone's

01:17:52.980 | taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and

01:17:56.700 | saying, hey, we can't do business with China, it's over.

01:17:59.860 | But I do think that the Trump administration, particularly with

01:18:03.780 | their recent request on TikTok being the ban on TikTok being

01:18:07.140 | kind of halted. They're trying to line up what I would call

01:18:10.500 | kind of like, the great deal with China. So I don't know

01:18:13.380 | anything about what they're actually trying to do. But I

01:18:16.020 | think that Trump and leadership in the US government want to

01:18:21.420 | kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in

01:18:24.420 | order to give Chinese companies access to the American market.

01:18:27.140 | And I think that they're going to get a deal done given the

01:18:29.780 | position with China. I think that they're very likely to kind

01:18:32.020 | of get a deal done. That's one driver. I think there's three

01:18:34.900 | drivers. The second driver is that obviously, the cost of

01:18:37.220 | build out of electricity production in China is

01:18:39.580 | unfathomable. They recently approved $137 billion hydro

01:18:43.660 | electric dam facility, which is going to add another, I think

01:18:46.780 | couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that

01:18:49.940 | country, not to mention all the nuclear build out we've talked

01:18:52.620 | about in the past. So the cost per kilowatt hour is already

01:18:55.540 | lower, the amount of electricity available is going up. And then

01:18:59.060 | I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this

01:19:01.900 | incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and

01:19:05.500 | entrepreneurship. And this is a moment where you could kind of

01:19:08.540 | see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more

01:19:11.700 | innovation, more free market activity, and it's going to be

01:19:14.580 | one of the motivators for them to do a deal. So when you put

01:19:17.140 | all of this together, I do think that there's a lot of Chinese

01:19:19.780 | tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption

01:19:22.620 | that this is going to be a very difficult conflict with the US

01:19:25.580 | in the years ahead. And I think that that may not be the case,

01:19:28.340 | going into 25. And I think that there, these stocks are pretty

01:19:31.180 | cheap. I was just looking at Alibaba, and it trades at a

01:19:33.900 | pretty decent multiple. It seems like these stocks could be

01:19:37.340 | poised for a pretty good run in 25. If the macro works out,

01:19:41.140 | it feels like a contrarian take. I mean, Trump, I don't think is

01:19:45.260 | going to find a way to balance the relationship with China very

01:19:49.260 | well. And I don't think you can rattle up entrepreneurship after

01:19:52.420 | you cut everybody's knees out the last time. Plus, I don't

01:19:56.100 | trust any accounting statement coming out of China because they

01:19:58.820 | could fudge whatever they want. But wow, what a great potential,

01:20:03.340 | you know, buy low sell high.

01:20:05.260 | The good thing is, you'll know, you'll know if I'm right or

01:20:08.060 | wrong in a year, you can

01:20:08.860 | exactly, we'll know exactly. That's right. Pull the ETF.

01:20:11.900 | Absolutely. Yeah. Gavin, what do you think of this hot take here?

01:20:14.820 | From from Mr. Freeberg?

01:20:16.780 | Really cheap. I've had a I would call it a no China guideline

01:20:21.180 | ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15

01:20:24.500 | years ago. Or it's just amazing. It was, you know, a lot of great

01:20:29.860 | investors owned it. And, you know, they, they talked a great

01:20:35.500 | game. And they had a Western auditor, but then it turned out

01:20:39.500 | that the fraud was happening at the local post office, where

01:20:44.500 | they're opening up the documents that the local auditors had

01:20:47.500 | signed off on changing them, and then sending different documents,

01:20:51.140 | you know, whatever, FedExing them. Yeah, so I just think it's

01:20:55.660 | it's a hard place if you're I think if you're not Chinese to

01:20:58.620 | make money. But I tend to agree with a lot of what David said, I

01:21:04.300 | think Trump and she both want to deal I think there's a deal to

01:21:07.340 | be done that leaves Putin out in the cold, as I referenced. And

01:21:13.260 | if that happens, Katie bar the door. I mean, they're really,

01:21:15.980 | really high quality companies, you know, that are some of them

01:21:19.460 | are mid single digit multiples.

01:21:21.220 | And they're and it's a big market. So if you did get it,

01:21:24.140 | right, and you do Chinese, Chinese companies serve a global

01:21:27.260 | market. It's not just the US they serve, you know, Africa,

01:21:31.820 | South America, Austria, I mean, the whole Southern Hemisphere.

01:21:34.620 | Well, yeah, you look at BYD. That's all over Europe. It's

01:21:38.500 | yeah, yeah. It's yeah, no, look, I mean, I mean, the Chinese

01:21:41.940 | companies and they have the best unit economics, they have the

01:21:46.100 | best cost of production. I mean, everything is advantaged,

01:21:49.540 | particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot, there's

01:21:53.220 | going to be kind of a massive demand around the world for

01:21:56.340 | automation. And for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over

01:22:00.740 | the world. And I think that China could service those

01:22:03.100 | markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of

01:22:06.220 | origin. So it's a pretty, pretty powerful set of macro

01:22:09.340 | drivers as well.

01:22:10.180 | I think the max seven is going to be the best performing asset

01:22:13.140 | and take the other side, Chamath, I think in an earlier

01:22:15.420 | prediction said maybe not so much. I think that what they've

01:22:19.060 | learned in the last couple of years is that there is an

01:22:22.340 | incredible earnings expansion you can do by not hiring people

01:22:26.580 | and outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world and

01:22:29.500 | automating and the gains we'll see from AI, which they're

01:22:33.540 | producing for other companies and for consumers, they're

01:22:37.020 | applying first internally. So the internal application of AI

01:22:41.220 | will allow these companies to have earnings growth that people

01:22:44.860 | will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years.

01:22:48.260 | So I'm going with max seven. We got a lot of different takes

01:22:52.140 | here going different directions. What a great episode so far.

01:22:55.940 | Alright, worst performing asset last year, Chamath said late

01:23:00.380 | stage tech stock index, mostly SAS, Freeberg, you put in a

01:23:03.220 | brilliant spread trade, short vertical SAS, long AI cloud

01:23:07.220 | providers, SAS has had a little bit of a rebound. But Google up

01:23:11.620 | 30% for 6% for AI Cloud, Microsoft 14%, Amazon 46% all in

01:23:16.300 | 2024. I said LLM startups like OpenAI Anthropic, too many

01:23:21.580 | players open sourcing will kill pricing. Obviously, the one

01:23:25.820 | valuation we can track is OpenAI and it doubled. But I didn't go

01:23:29.860 | long term have that one work worst performing asset of 2025

01:23:34.460 | Gavin

01:23:34.860 | enterprise application software. Okay, this is basically just

01:23:38.180 | about my 2025 is going to be I think the year of agents,

01:23:42.660 | particularly in the second half agents just being AI models that

01:23:47.100 | can take action on your behalf, that can do anything online that

01:23:50.220 | a human can do online. And if the labs and the big cloud

01:23:55.620 | providers dominate agents, which seems likely going back to, you

01:24:00.620 | know, the, the low cost producer is going to win. Enterprise

01:24:05.500 | application software, I think is going to be in a lot of pain.

01:24:07.900 | And, you know, some of these companies are talking a big, big

01:24:11.460 | game about agents. But at the end of the day, they don't have

01:24:14.540 | their own models, they don't own their own compute. And I just

01:24:20.260 | don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents.

01:24:23.580 | You know, I could easily, I could be wrong, because they do,

01:24:27.420 | you know, they, they, they have some customer data, maybe a

01:24:31.300 | little bit of a data moat. And they do, you know, have strong

01:24:34.780 | customer relationships. But you know, most companies have

01:24:37.100 | relationships with AWS, Google or Microsoft as well. So I think

01:24:40.500 | enterprise application software will be in pain.

01:24:42.620 | Okay, and trim off, what do you got?

01:24:46.220 | I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it. I'm going to double

01:24:50.100 | down on what he said. I think that there's a term that that we

01:24:56.420 | will start to use more, I started to use it internally at

01:24:59.140 | 8090. Over this last year in 2024, which is the software

01:25:03.620 | industrial complex. These are these large bloated, in many

01:25:09.980 | cases, enterprise software companies that effectively have

01:25:14.100 | convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a

01:25:19.100 | tremendous amount of money, essentially wrapping a bunch of

01:25:23.780 | heuristics and business rules around a CRUD database. And

01:25:27.340 | along with that, what they have perfected really is a go to

01:25:30.980 | market and sales motion. The golf trips, the steak dinners,

01:25:35.300 | you know, we mentioned this before what Alex Karp railed

01:25:38.300 | against. None of those things equate to product value. And

01:25:45.020 | increasingly, in the world of agentic software and AI, I think

01:25:50.340 | that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very

01:25:52.820 | efficient ways. And I think the go to market is going to be

01:25:56.500 | driven by CEOs and CFOs, who start to exert a little bit more

01:26:01.420 | pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. And in that world, I just

01:26:06.900 | think that these next generation AI businesses are built,

01:26:10.820 | frankly, an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that

01:26:15.300 | they compete against. And so even if it's just feature for

01:26:18.100 | feature the same, I think the software industrial complex,

01:26:21.660 | these old mainline, traditional enterprise software companies, I

01:26:27.460 | think you're going to start to see fissures in those

01:26:29.460 | businesses in 2025. So I, I agree with Gavin, different

01:26:32.660 | words, but same result.

01:26:33.940 | And you put your time and money where your mouth is on this one

01:26:37.740 | 11 months ago, you found it 8090, to get 80%.

01:26:41.500 | The traction in, in less than a year, to me is shocking. And I

01:26:47.220 | don't think it speaks necessarily, I think we're

01:26:49.420 | decent, we're very good, we have great engineers. But my 30%

01:26:53.980 | engineering team, I think does the work of 300 people by next

01:26:57.100 | year, it'll be doing the work of 3000 people, maybe we'll only

01:27:00.340 | grow by 10 or 20%. So and the reason is we use these tools,

01:27:05.380 | we're productive to an order of magnitude that I didn't think

01:27:08.500 | was possible. And as a result, we're just able to price it

01:27:12.140 | differently. So even if it's the exact same product, its cost

01:27:16.020 | structure is just meaningfully lower. And so this is what I

01:27:19.420 | mean, where the ROI calculators get blown up, all of the

01:27:23.020 | traditional go to market motions get blown up, because in an RFP

01:27:26.660 | or in any other sales environment, what you do is

01:27:29.820 | somebody says it's $100, and you show up and you say, 10. Okay,

01:27:34.460 | and at 10, it's still hugely profitable for you.

01:27:36.580 | And just to add, just one last thing is just, you know,

01:27:40.900 | fundamentally, these enterprise application software companies,

01:27:43.420 | the software industrial complex, and I agree with everything

01:27:45.580 | Jamal said, you know, they're, they're fundamentally based on

01:27:48.860 | making white collar human employees more efficient. And

01:27:53.580 | what the AI companies are going to do is just say, hey, we're

01:27:55.900 | just going to replace that worker. And it's just a

01:27:58.260 | fundamentally different mentality. And it goes to like,

01:28:03.780 | there may be a lot of pain that accompanies this. And you know,

01:28:06.740 | David's points around the, you know, potential rise of, of

01:28:09.980 | socialism.

01:28:10.780 | What do you got for worst performing asset? Mr. Friedberg?

01:28:14.940 | 2020, I'm probably just going to triple underline vertical SAS

01:28:17.660 | again, perceived pricing model being challenged. Pricing being

01:28:21.660 | compressed as companies explore in house tools built with AI

01:28:25.340 | that replaces these kind of traditional business practices.

01:28:29.420 | Most are going to be destroyed.

01:28:30.780 | Yeah, geez, this is obvious. It was an it was an obvious one on

01:28:36.380 | my list. But I want to make a different one. I want to make a

01:28:38.540 | different one. How about open AI? Do you have anything open AI?

01:28:41.060 | No, no, no open eyes. Tell me why people laugh. But you know,

01:28:45.900 | I don't know where they are. Where do all the Where are they

01:28:48.300 | all the other open AI employees? Are they on vacation? They're

01:28:50.460 | skiing too, right?

01:28:51.220 | They've all started competitors.

01:28:53.180 | Oh, right. That's what happened. Correct. Yeah, they all left to

01:28:56.220 | compete and have revenge startups. Wow, that's an

01:28:58.300 | interesting trend. Okay. So consumers make five big

01:29:02.100 | decisions in their life, as we all know, there's 12 billion

01:29:05.140 | revenue. I mean, well, that's that's a projection.

01:29:07.860 | 6 billion in losses to David against that 12 billion in

01:29:13.020 | revenue. Yeah,

01:29:14.020 | 6 billion this year, 6 billion next year.

01:29:15.860 | I think the six is for next year. But I Yeah, I don't know.

01:29:20.020 | I guess it makes sense why they're trying to charge 200

01:29:22.460 | bucks a month now. Up from 20. They got some headwinds. Okay.

01:29:26.460 | Listen, consumers make five big decisions in their life. We know

01:29:29.180 | college spouse kids are the obvious ones, and then cars and

01:29:33.460 | homes, and the consumer is up against it with record debt. So

01:29:38.100 | since you can't trade college spouse kids, really, I think

01:29:41.820 | legacy car companies and real estate are going to face

01:29:45.100 | continued headwinds and be terrible assets. Because listen,

01:29:49.420 | we've overbuilt in some cases, there's tons of cars on lots.

01:29:52.300 | And people can't afford homes with these mortgages. So I think

01:29:55.020 | these are going to be the two worst performing asset are

01:29:58.220 | people in the legacy OEMs, as Chamath pointed out in a

01:30:01.180 | previous prediction. And then I just think real estate is the

01:30:03.620 | same. If you look at a place like Texas, two years in a row,

01:30:06.300 | housing values have gone down, rent has gone down two years in

01:30:08.940 | a row, same things happening in other states where they allowed

01:30:11.380 | you to build and people are leaving states where they don't

01:30:13.660 | allow you to build. So that's my worst performing asset trade.

01:30:16.140 | Enterprise was my other choice, but I'll go with something

01:30:18.980 | slightly different. Most anticipated trend for 2025. Last

01:30:22.420 | year, Chamath, congratulations. You said last year, that

01:30:25.740 | Bitcoin would hit 100k for the first time, nailed it half court

01:30:29.300 | shot. Well done. I think at the time you made that prediction,

01:30:32.180 | it was probably trading, it felt like a layup, felt like a layup

01:30:35.060 | to you up 112%. Freeberg, you said predictive models and AI

01:30:38.980 | driven discovery and pharma and bioengineering. How did that do

01:30:41.780 | that prediction?

01:30:42.460 | Well, there was a lot of funding and Dennis won the Nobel Prize.

01:30:47.300 | Yeah, so it worked out.

01:30:49.300 | I picked efficiency in the form of AI advancements in labor and

01:30:52.340 | outsourcing. And I've seen that a bunch with our investment in

01:30:55.900 | Athena, go to Athena.com. Okay, got my plug in there. Let's go

01:30:59.940 | for most anticipated 2025 trend. What do you got Chamath?

01:31:02.820 | I think that there are a handful of not to overuse and overuse

01:31:08.460 | term, but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep

01:31:11.660 | state. And I would like to point to one, which is this obscure

01:31:21.140 | thing called the supplemental loss ratio. And essentially what

01:31:26.140 | it is, is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not

01:31:34.500 | include treasuries and how they calculate reserves, etc, etc.

01:31:37.140 | Now, why is this an interesting thing? It's not interesting for

01:31:40.260 | many people. It's very arcane. But if we are unable to manage

01:31:48.020 | the debt situation, in 2025, I think what you're going to see

01:31:54.900 | is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations that

01:32:00.340 | effectively kick the can down the road. And there is a chance

01:32:05.700 | that that could happen to help the banks. Because, you know, we

01:32:10.140 | believe that we meaning collectively America, that maybe

01:32:14.300 | doge won't be as effective as it needs to be that they're still

01:32:17.140 | going to need to be, you know, 10 $20 trillion of debt issuance

01:32:20.460 | to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug

01:32:24.140 | holes in the coming years. My point in all of this is we don't

01:32:28.580 | need to understand the details, except that if we don't move the

01:32:35.180 | goalposts here, it is a great sign that the folks that are

01:32:42.780 | running the show are the ones that we all elected. Okay, so

01:32:46.060 | that is my most anticipated trend, small, arcane regulatory

01:32:51.020 | changes that allow us to kick the can down the road stop in

01:32:54.020 | its tracks. This is an example.

01:32:56.180 | Okay, freeberg, you got a most anticipated trend for 2025.

01:32:58.660 | My most anticipated trend is around the announcement of

01:33:03.860 | buildout of nuclear power in the United States in 2025. As a

01:33:08.500 | function of deregulation and some new technologies. I do

01:33:13.220 | think that this new government is going to be much more

01:33:16.340 | accommodating. And it's going to, as I've said in the past, I

01:33:19.100 | think it's a necessity, just because of the the rate at which

01:33:23.460 | we have to do power buildouts, to meet kind of competitive

01:33:26.940 | demand against China, the United States is going to need to add

01:33:30.540 | more power, electricity production capacity than we can

01:33:33.140 | scale up with any other renewable source. So I do

01:33:36.780 | believe that nuclear is an inevitability. I think that the

01:33:39.500 | deregulation will happen in 25. And I do know a lot of very

01:33:42.700 | smart people who are actually starting nuclear power

01:33:45.660 | companies, and have left very good jobs to go and do this in

01:33:50.340 | anticipation of this happening in 25. So I'm very bullish.

01:33:53.940 | That's an indicator for sure. When smart people do something

01:33:57.700 | with their time. That's a great indicator. Gavin, what do you

01:33:59.780 | got?

01:34:00.020 | I think AI and Nick, I sent you a chart. I don't know if you

01:34:04.740 | could flash it up. But I think AI is going to make more

01:34:08.860 | progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and

01:34:15.900 | 24. And the reason is just with us with oh, one and oh, three,

01:34:21.140 | this is our KGI, it's designed, you know, we keep we keep

01:34:24.900 | changing the goalposts for the Turing test and AGI. And I'm

01:34:29.940 | sure we're going to change it again. Because we're going to

01:34:32.580 | blow through this. And I just think what has happened is, we

01:34:35.700 | were scaling around round one, on one axis, which was

01:34:38.940 | pre-training. And then we started scaling around inference

01:34:42.260 | time compute. And it's very clear that we have now added a

01:34:46.380 | third axis of scaling performance. And that is

01:34:49.860 | reasoning. And what this is, is these models, the internet is

01:34:54.860 | composed of answers, people giving answers. And what the

01:34:58.940 | models really benefit from is kind of the internal monologue

01:35:04.100 | of somebody getting to that answer. And this is, you know,

01:35:08.180 | in AI terms, they call it a reasoning trace. And it's one

01:35:11.420 | reason, you know, 18 months ago, everybody was like, Oh, wow,

01:35:13.300 | the more code you train a model on, the better it does, and all

01:35:15.900 | sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with

01:35:19.020 | code. But all code, you see kind of the reasoning, the internal

01:35:24.180 | monologue, the thought process, the step by step. And so what's

01:35:27.940 | happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that

01:35:33.340 | contains these reasoning traces. So you ask a model, you know,

01:35:36.620 | solve this problem, it has to be a problem that is functionally

01:35:39.460 | verifiable, that has an answer, or we know the answer, we say

01:35:42.660 | show your work. And we have to do that many, many different

01:35:45.700 | ways and times. And then you pick the best ones. And you kind

01:35:49.260 | of feed those back into the model, you apply some

01:35:51.340 | reinforcement learning to it. And so now you're scaling along

01:35:54.420 | three axes that are multiplicative with each other.

01:35:58.980 | And I just, I, you know, a guy on the Google team said, tweeted

01:36:05.580 | maybe five days ago, it's going to be a straight shot to ASI,

01:36:09.420 | artificial superintelligence. And I think that might be right.

01:36:13.100 | Ilya gave a talk at NeurIPS, Ilya Tsutskever, one of kind of

01:36:17.300 | the original pioneers of this field. And he said something

01:36:20.060 | that I thought was scary. And he said, these models that reason

01:36:25.380 | are inherently unpredictable. So the best reasoning models in the

01:36:29.100 | world today are the ones that play games, the kind of alpha go

01:36:31.780 | alpha zero style models, and they are constantly making

01:36:35.900 | unpredictable moves that no human grandmaster ever could

01:36:39.580 | have come up with. And now these models are going to be making

01:36:43.500 | similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains. Which, you

01:36:49.700 | know, hopefully will be awesome, but you know, might not be.

01:36:52.540 | Yeah, well, they're going to go around corners that people might

01:36:55.140 | not have considered that are non intuitive. And then just to

01:36:58.020 | circle back and do a little callback here. Remember, I asked

01:37:00.900 | which banks would have the biggest chance of being

01:37:04.100 | insolvent, or having financial collapse or crisis, tons of

01:37:07.740 | misspellings in there as I typed it while we're talking. And you

01:37:10.100 | can see what deep, deep research did here. It went and said,

01:37:14.100 | here's what we're going to do, we're going to research a bunch

01:37:15.980 | of websites and find a list of banks in the US find top banks

01:37:18.740 | by us by asset. For each one of these banks find their latest

01:37:21.420 | financial savings for each of these banks find their capital

01:37:24.820 | adequacy ratios for each of these banks find their loan

01:37:27.140 | loss, you get the idea. And then it went in and analyzed. And

01:37:31.180 | then it created a report. This took about 10 minutes. And when

01:37:34.140 | you look, it created this final report here, where it gave a

01:37:37.500 | list Chamath of JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, yada,

01:37:41.220 | yada, it did an analysis of each one. And at the end, you can see

01:37:46.580 | all the different websites it pulled. It was well over 100

01:37:50.540 | websites that it pulled. That's incredible live data from 162

01:37:54.940 | websites. And you have to pay for this, but it's only $20 a

01:37:58.300 | month. And its conclusion. This analysis is provided a snapshot

01:38:01.820 | of financial health of some of the largest US banks while all

01:38:04.620 | banks face inherent risk Citigroup and Wells Fargo

01:38:07.660 | appeared to be the highest risk of insolvency or financial

01:38:09.620 | collapse. Compared to JP Morgan Chase Bank of America Goldman

01:38:12.620 | Sachs Citigroup's recent net loss lower CET one ratio and

01:38:16.700 | high exposure. I mean, you start looking at is that I don't know

01:38:18.780 | how much of this is correct. I'm no expert on this. But it does

01:38:21.740 | seem like it's a pretty good start of where it's getting to

01:38:24.460 | and if you haven't used 1.5 pro with deep research, just go to

01:38:27.980 | gemini.google.com. I'm not being paid to say this. I just think

01:38:30.940 | it's the best product in the market. And it's pretty darn

01:38:35.260 | impressive. Okay. My most anticipated trend for 2025 was

01:38:41.420 | alluded to in an earlier prediction, I think by Gavin

01:38:44.500 | himself. Mine is that exits and DPI shower town will have this

01:38:49.460 | incredible distribution as the wrath of Lena Khan ends and M&A

01:38:53.300 | and IPOs will surge. That is my prediction, my most anticipated

01:38:58.660 | trend. Okay, let's go to most anticipated media. I had to that

01:39:03.340 | I was working back and forth from James, James guns, DC

01:39:06.980 | universe with Superman coming out this year, I think is going

01:39:09.860 | to be amazing and or season two could be amazing. I predict

01:39:13.740 | they're going to do a Clone Wars live action series. If you

01:39:15.980 | don't have the Clone Wars, watch it with your kids. It's amazing

01:39:18.220 | animated series that takes place during the prequels. But I went

01:39:21.820 | with a little of a weird choice here. I think my most

01:39:25.860 | anticipated media is seeing what happens with legacy media

01:39:29.380 | outlets owned by billionaires and or people who no longer want

01:39:33.660 | to pick aside Washington Post, CNN and LA Times specifically,

01:39:37.020 | are steering towards the middle and trying to get back to

01:39:40.260 | classic journalism. The editors are revolting. Karen Swisher is

01:39:44.500 | upset. And they're adding some right wing voices. It is going

01:39:48.940 | to be popcorn time for everybody. So enjoy whatever you

01:39:53.780 | want to enjoy Star Wars. I got a little Star Wars for you with

01:39:56.500 | Andrew season two, I got a little Superman or you can watch

01:39:59.580 | the chaos in the editorial newsrooms at Washington Post and

01:40:02.820 | LA Times. What do you got for most anticipated media tomorrow?

01:40:06.100 | It is the enormity of the files that are going to get

01:40:12.260 | declassified and released by the Trump administration. I think

01:40:15.780 | it's going to be unbelievably interesting, salacious, useful,

01:40:22.500 | good, earnest. All of the above. So the JFK files, the Epstein

01:40:31.220 | files, Diddy files, the moon landing, who knows what they

01:40:35.940 | find across all of these other fringe, quote unquote,

01:40:38.620 | conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some

01:40:40.940 | shred of truth. But all of that, let's call it content, for lack

01:40:44.780 | of a better word that gets released in 2025 by the Trump

01:40:47.540 | administration, I think will be incredibly interesting. What do

01:40:51.100 | you got to media? Any anticipated media for you? What

01:40:53.700 | do you got? I'm into AI video games. The cost of production

01:40:57.660 | comes way down when you use AI and you can have dynamic

01:41:00.780 | storylines, you can have new gameplay concepts, things that

01:41:03.700 | don't exist today. I think that the creative talent plus the

01:41:07.340 | technical talent that you typically find a development

01:41:09.540 | houses can be kind of unleashed with tools that have come to

01:41:11.980 | come to market recently, we've seen a lot of the generative

01:41:14.020 | video stuff. But there's also ways structurally that video

01:41:17.540 | games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can

01:41:19.980 | run kind of locally can be generating parameters that can

01:41:23.340 | then use an existing rendering engine. So you can have entirely

01:41:26.380 | new storylines and entirely new kind of plot sequences. So I do

01:41:30.340 | think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the

01:41:33.020 | video game industry, with the variety of AI kind of

01:41:36.900 | capabilities that are hitting market now. And it's going to be

01:41:39.700 | incredible. It's going to be incredible entertainment, people

01:41:42.140 | are gonna, people that don't play video games are going to

01:41:44.380 | find stuff that they're going to love.

01:41:45.580 | Gavin, most anticipated media 2025.

01:41:49.100 | Unquestioned 1923. Season two, I'm normally a science fiction

01:41:54.980 | kind of fantasy, or you know, spy kind of guy when it comes to

01:42:00.420 | TV. But 1883 and 1923 were the first TV shows that kind of hit

01:42:04.780 | me the way Game of Thrones did. And I'm crazy excited for that

01:42:07.860 | to come out.

01:42:08.420 | Fantastic. Are you watching Landman? I'm enjoying Landman.

01:42:12.260 | I haven't watched it yet. I'm excited. It's quite fun, quite

01:42:15.860 | fun. Turns out this guy Taylor Sheridan. He's I mean, yeah,

01:42:19.500 | it's incredible. He's in the zone.

01:42:22.420 | I highly recommend Day of the Jackal. I know Chamath also

01:42:25.580 | loved Day of the Jackal.

01:42:26.700 | Oh, that was really good. That was really good. That was a

01:42:29.140 | good suggestion for streaming.

01:42:31.060 | Yeah, I'm excited. It was incredible. Yeah. Absolutely.

01:42:35.620 | What was your predictions for, for this last year?

01:42:38.220 | Last year, Chamath predicted Mr. Beast, Freeberg, AI generated

01:42:42.940 | news. I predicted Gladiator 2 and the three body problem.

01:42:47.100 | Gladiator 2 was mid, but okay, three body problem. I didn't

01:42:51.260 | finish. So I guess mid

01:42:52.660 | Jimmy's show on Amazon Prime, the Mr. Beast thing was the top

01:42:57.860 | unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries.

01:43:01.420 | Wow, incredible. All right, we're gonna do our prediction

01:43:04.860 | markets here. I'm going to put up a prediction market, which is

01:43:09.100 | based upon immigration and the promise that Trump made to have

01:43:13.460 | 15 million people be deported from the country. I think in the

01:43:17.340 | first year, I'm going to set the over under at 5% of that stated

01:43:21.020 | number, which is 750,000. So after one year in office, will

01:43:27.340 | Trump have deported 750,000 less or more? That's my first

01:43:33.620 | prediction. How are you going to measure that you have to there

01:43:35.620 | has to be a like a source of truth on these things, right?

01:43:38.660 | We'll do it based on the White House's reporting of

01:43:40.900 | deportations.

01:43:41.740 | Yeah, it's reasonable.

01:43:42.820 | And we'll check with the poly market team if there's a way to

01:43:45.740 | do that prediction market, obviously, but I think that was

01:43:47.900 | the biggest issue of the election. So I'm putting it up

01:43:49.740 | there with just 5% in the first year.

01:43:51.940 | Yeah, it is interesting. Obama deported, I think more than 2

01:43:55.060 | million people. It's like people have forgotten, but he was

01:43:58.460 | actually really, really tough on the border. Yeah.

01:44:00.820 | tomorrow. Do you have a prediction market you want to

01:44:02.660 | put up the Maggie representation on the s&p 500 shrinks below 30%

01:44:12.140 | Oh, that's a good one. That's a good one. So dispersion would

01:44:15.980 | happen to the other stocks. That's a good concentration.

01:44:18.980 | That's a good one. So we'll finalize these, you'll be able

01:44:21.580 | to

01:44:21.740 | I wanted to kind of play with was Microsoft AWS and Google

01:44:26.820 | cloud revenue growth, who's gonna win in growth in 2025. I

01:44:31.220 | don't know how closely you guys track, but I get a sense that

01:44:35.140 | Google is kind of accelerating ahead. Gavin, I don't know how

01:44:38.020 | much you've

01:44:38.460 | Yeah, I mean, Google is, I would say they're a lot smaller, which

01:44:43.700 | makes it easier for them to grow faster. Yeah.

01:44:48.340 | Should we talk about? Yeah, I mean, I guess. Who has the

01:44:55.540 | largest gain dollar dollar gain in revenue in cloud revenue in

01:45:00.460 | 2025? Is it Google, Amazon, or Microsoft?

01:45:03.980 | Well, it probably won't be Google because if they had the

01:45:06.940 | largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at an at

01:45:09.580 | insane rates. But I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting.

01:45:14.180 | Oh, I know the other one I want you to do, which was the

01:45:17.620 | national debt. The national debt has grown about 2 trillion per

01:45:22.420 | year in each of the previous two presidential administrations,

01:45:29.100 | right. So over the last eight years, we've gone up over 16

01:45:31.340 | trillion 2 trillion per year average. So I'm going to set it

01:45:34.300 | at and Trump said he would not increase the national debt. I'll

01:45:40.100 | just set it at the national debt increases 1 trillion in the next

01:45:44.020 | year over under. Is that a good prediction of market? Or is it

01:45:47.780 | should be 2 trillion?

01:45:48.660 | Yeah, so what I would do is I would set the federal debt for

01:45:53.940 | December, the US Treasury market report on federal debt in 2025.

01:45:57.700 | And I would set it at 30 37 trillion. And so basically, the

01:46:02.340 | US Treasury market report 20 December 2025, above or below

01:46:08.380 | 37 trillion, it's going to be above, I mean, let's just call

01:46:10.780 | it 38 billion, then.

01:46:11.700 | Yeah, you want to basically in order to make this when you set

01:46:16.340 | a line, Dave, it's got to be one where people take either side of

01:46:20.180 | it. It can't be everybody will do the US Treasury market report

01:46:23.380 | December 2025, federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38

01:46:27.700 | trillion. Perfect. Which would be how much added in the year?

01:46:31.300 | About one and a half. Yeah.

01:46:32.700 | I love that. I love that. That's a perfect one. We'll see if he

01:46:36.140 | can make any, he can control the spending or it will just be the

01:46:39.220 | same.

01:46:39.580 | Gavin, what's your sense on federal debt next year?

01:46:41.780 | I think like most things that will take like immigration will

01:46:43.980 | take time to get going. Yeah. It just it's gonna take a little

01:46:48.020 | bit of time, but I think they will make progress. By the way,

01:46:50.580 | at some point, if I'm here on the all in again, I want to talk

01:46:54.940 | about UFOs and the drones.

01:46:58.300 | Let's talk about it. Do it right now. Are you going full

01:47:00.940 | conspiracy theorist? Are you are you trying to get your seat here

01:47:04.020 | by being a little more Alex Jones? Do you believe those

01:47:06.700 | drones were aliens? What's going on?

01:47:08.580 | So I don't know. And I think it's very clear if you look at

01:47:11.940 | all the, you know, statements from the New Jersey mayors and

01:47:15.380 | governors, you know, who've met with the police, the FBI, the

01:47:19.940 | Defense Department that they don't know. Now, you know, Trump

01:47:23.900 | said someone in the government knows what they are. He also

01:47:27.260 | said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon. His

01:47:30.860 | resort there. I just think over the last, I'd say eight years,

01:47:35.500 | every 18 months, there's a big story in the New York Times, the

01:47:39.300 | Washington Post, the New Yorker, the Atlantic very credible media

01:47:43.940 | sources. With dozens of interviews with fighter pilots

01:47:47.860 | and commercial pilots, talking about seeing things with advanced

01:47:51.180 | sensors that made no sense to them. Then there's kind of a

01:47:54.620 | taboo that went away. I was an article in the New Yorker, where

01:48:00.940 | they quoted from a bunch of people who were at, you know,

01:48:05.980 | kind of the the skunk works laboratories in the 1950s. And

01:48:09.420 | said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that

01:48:14.500 | have been recovered from a crash. That's one reason the US

01:48:16.900 | made such big leaps in material science. And, you know, there

01:48:22.380 | was a lot of thing where essentially a lot of, you know,

01:48:25.580 | astronomers said, Hey, this is, this is clearly a UFO of some

01:48:29.860 | sort, including the head of astronomy at Harvard. And then

01:48:34.820 | just the conspiracy theory I would have is if, if, if, if,

01:48:40.700 | if these are actually UFOs, and not, you know, government

01:48:47.180 | drones, either from the United States or China, it seems like

01:48:51.380 | the most likely explanation in New Jersey is that some sort of

01:48:54.020 | a drill. And obviously, once this hysteria gets going, people,

01:48:59.020 | you know, misidentify commercial airplanes as drones. And like,

01:49:05.460 | why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights. But it is

01:49:09.180 | just interesting that there was, you know, a big concentration of

01:49:13.260 | these reports, as we're scaling into nuclear technology, 1945 to

01:49:18.780 | 1960. And then now that AI is getting going, which is the next

01:49:23.420 | kind of technological phase shift for humanity. There's

01:49:26.340 | another big

01:49:27.820 | I love this. Come back next week. You Congratulations. We

01:49:35.060 | have our winner for all and I don't think Gavin is now the

01:49:38.020 | fourth best. I love this kind of conspiracy. But I mean, come on.

01:49:42.340 | I we How do we make a poly market at this free?

01:49:48.180 | Are there documents that you think Trump will release about

01:49:51.460 | the past and in terms of UFOs, there must be just an entire

01:49:54.940 | spectrum of stuff that could be subject to FOIA if we went

01:49:59.180 | after it? No.

01:49:59.980 | I mean, I think it depends how deeply it's classified. And, you

01:50:04.660 | know, I'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up, they

01:50:07.460 | won't give it up. But you know, there's all the you know,

01:50:11.420 | there's all you think, but look, let's be honest, you think that

01:50:13.900 | there are docs, like there, there's documentation that the

01:50:17.300 | US government has that there are UFOs that there have been we

01:50:21.220 | just can't explain it.

01:50:22.260 | Yeah, and you know, they they call it uaps now to make it you

01:50:26.620 | know, not flying saucers. But it just feels like something but

01:50:31.020 | percentage chance you put on, we have actual knowledge on a

01:50:35.620 | percentage basis, what percentage chance you put on the

01:50:37.820 | government, US government is sitting on knowledge of

01:50:40.380 | extraterrestrial percent, at least 20%. What do you say

01:50:43.580 | Gavin? I would say 25. I would take the over on the 20.

01:50:47.060 | Okay, great. So you think there's a non a significant

01:50:51.140 | small chance that this is the case Freeberg, Sultan of

01:50:53.660 | science? What chance do you think there is this government

01:50:58.100 | sitting on some extraterrestrial life or proof of it?

01:51:01.060 | So longer conversation, I don't have time for this. But I got to

01:51:04.620 | be honest, I don't. I don't generally align with the idea

01:51:07.660 | that like our very narrow range of, like, understanding of

01:51:13.380 | technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit

01:51:19.860 | us. I think that there's an extension of information

01:51:23.780 | gathering that doesn't require moving physical biological life

01:51:28.740 | forms from one part of the galaxy to another. So I think

01:51:31.460 | that the whole premise of like, UFOs moving bodies around is

01:51:35.100 | rooted in the current state of technology of humanity, which is

01:51:39.660 | the basis of Arthur Clarke's treatment of 2001, a space

01:51:44.300 | odyssey, not which was done before the screenplay, which was

01:51:47.380 | done before the book. And the treatment which you can buy, I

01:51:51.100 | think highlights this the best, which is eventually every

01:51:53.820 | civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of

01:51:56.260 | technology that you no longer need to physically move the

01:51:59.340 | bodies of the biological organisms around that you simply

01:52:03.900 | are gathering information and affecting information because

01:52:06.580 | once you have the ability to convert any molecule into any

01:52:09.020 | other molecule, and you have access to sufficient energy,

01:52:11.740 | which you will eventually evolve to be able to do, you can

01:52:14.300 | basically turn your local part of the universe into anything

01:52:16.740 | you want it to turn into. And then you're simply gathering

01:52:19.180 | information from all over the rest of the universe. So I would

01:52:22.140 | argue that there doesn't really make a lot of basic sense and

01:52:25.880 | why alien bodies would want to move around the galaxy.

01:52:28.700 | I'm just saying it right now. If Trump releases information on

01:52:34.380 | extraterrestrial life, I'm voting for him to have a third

01:52:37.980 | term. I'm putting it out there. I'm going full MAGA. He gets a

01:52:40.620 | third term for me. We're changing the Constitution. This

01:52:43.060 | has been another amazing episode of the all last question for

01:52:45.620 | Gavin. Oh, well, let's forget. Okay. Do you think

01:52:48.780 | extraterrestrial life built the pyramids? Is that the most

01:52:54.060 | plausible explanation to the accuracy?

01:52:57.420 | I don't know. It is. It is so strange the way there are, you

01:53:02.820 | know, in so many, I would say, cultures all over the world pre

01:53:07.980 | you know, we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the

01:53:13.420 | time of the Great Pyramids, like there was a long time ago. But

01:53:17.140 | it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world,

01:53:19.980 | there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts. And

01:53:24.420 | then there's all these Renaissance era paintings that

01:53:27.740 | clearly show what we would call UFOs in the skies over cities.

01:53:35.540 | So I don't know, I just think it's I'm with you. I love

01:53:38.060 | conspiracy, Gavin.

01:53:39.060 | If you're Jason, if you're a questioning person, these things

01:53:46.660 | I get these weird on and, you know, open loops that it's like,

01:53:50.540 | I think we're in a simulation. So I'm fully I'm fully vested in

01:53:54.180 | anyways, I've never got to drive back. Freiberg's driving home. I

01:53:57.140 | think the pyramids are the best most credible thing I saw on the

01:53:59.420 | pyramids was that they used water and they raised water in

01:54:03.060 | channels. So they put them on wood slats or something. And

01:54:06.180 | then they would raise like in like the Panama Canal, they

01:54:10.660 | would do canals and float them up and then place them and then

01:54:13.620 | release the water, which you know, sounds great to me. This

01:54:17.180 | has been another amazing episode of the all in podcast. And thank

01:54:22.140 | you to everybody. It's

01:54:22.980 | an amazing 2025 to everybody.

01:54:24.980 | Let's kick off 2025. Let's take care. All right, we'll see you

01:54:30.980 | all next time. Bye bye.

01:54:33.060 | All right, let your winners ride. Rain Man David says we

01:54:43.060 | open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

01:54:46.020 | Love you. I'm the Queen of King.

01:54:48.020 | Besties are gone.

01:54:56.420 | That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway.

01:54:59.940 | We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy

01:55:08.340 | because they're all just useless. It's like this like

01:55:10.180 | sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

01:55:12.460 | What? You're a bee. What? You're a bee. We need to get merch.

01:55:19.940 | I'm going all in. I'm going all in.

01:55:30.140 | (upbeat music)

2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker

Chapters