Trump's Mandate: An Extinction-Level Event for Federal Bureaucracy

00:00:00.000 | There's this

00:00:01.560 | kind of thing that happens in

00:00:03.560 | Biology called evolution and a lot of people think evolution is this continuous process, but it's not

00:00:08.820 | evolution is this process by which there is some significant growth for a period of time and

00:00:15.120 | Then there is an extinction event or an external force

00:00:18.960 | That causes what ultimately becomes what's called punctuated equilibrium

00:00:23.320 | So the whole kind of system resets and then the healthier stronger species

00:00:27.760 | Survive and they grow and they persist and if you look at the

00:00:31.800 | first chart Nick that I pulled up this will just show you guys past extinction events large amounts of

00:00:38.600 | biomass over the past half billion years get wiped out when these extinction events occur and

00:00:43.760 | then evolution occurs because the species that can survive the extinction of hand persists in the environment and they grow and

00:00:51.480 | That's how evolution kind of actually takes place is there's an external force that changes what survives and what doesn't it's kind of a testing

00:00:59.080 | Force if you look at federal spending and this is a crazy link

00:01:02.760 | but here's federal spending over the last couple of decades and I

00:01:06.560 | Would argue that many of the agencies?

00:01:09.860 | Much of the bureaucracy many of the jobs created many of the spending programs many of the operating models many of the behaviors

00:01:17.560 | can kind of be viewed as a

00:01:20.560 | species or species within this ecosystem that have kind of grown a lot over the last few decades and

00:01:25.960 | I think what Trump's mandate was by the people

00:01:29.040 | and people don't want to hear this and they don't like it, but his mandate was to be kind of the extinction event and

00:01:35.100 | whatever agencies

00:01:37.880 | whatever operating processes

00:01:39.880 | whatever individuals

00:01:41.560 | whatever bureaucratic systems exist within the federal government that can withstand the scrutiny of

00:01:46.560 | The individuals that Trump is going to put in charge of each of these agencies

00:01:50.320 | That they can survive and they can come out the other end

00:01:53.560 | There is certainly some degree of strength and resilience and hardiness. This is not about right or wrong

00:01:59.280 | This is a deserve to exist if they think this is gonna bring in this is gonna bring in the most

00:02:04.160 | Disruptive force that federal agencies have ever seen and the intention with Trump isn't defined

00:02:09.440 | Some person to keep running things the way they have been run in the past his

00:02:14.080 | mandate from the people who elected him based on the message he put out there is to do the opposite which is to go in and

00:02:19.600 | Be as disruptive and damaging and destructive as possible. And whatever comes out the other side will be stronger will be harder and

00:02:26.280 | Theoretically will be you know more resilient and I think that that's the event that's underway

00:02:34.640 | Now the people who are getting exactly what they want in

00:02:38.560 | Trump's candidacies are the Democrats they were saying Trump is gonna put a bunch of crazy lunatics in office and he's gonna make them the

00:02:45.600 | Cabinet and they're good and there and now they're able to kind of clap their hands and say we told you so we told you

00:02:50.200 | So and I'm not sure that if they're really getting the message

00:02:53.560 | Which is that the intention here isn't to keep things running the way they have been running

00:02:57.680 | But to really fundamentally test the systems and test the systems with the most challenging

00:03:03.560 | Oppositional forces the systems have ever been tested by which is the candidates or the individuals that he's putting in charge of each of these

00:03:09.200 | Agencies, so I'm not saying it's right or wrong one way or the other

00:03:12.720 | But I'm making an observation that this is gonna be kind of an extinction level event

00:03:16.760 | That Trump's decisions on who he's putting in place. I think are gonna drive an outcome on the other end

00:03:22.040 | That's gonna make the government look very different and I you know

00:03:26.000 | I'm not gonna sit around and say this person's good this person's bad because I don't think the point is to find someone that's quote

00:03:30.520 | Qualified to do the job

00:03:31.880 | The intention is actually quite different and the outcome may actually be positive for America if you fast-forward a couple of years in

00:03:38.480 | some cases and there's some cases where things could get really messed up and people could suffer and jobs will be lost and all sorts

00:03:43.760 | of bad things will happen, but

00:03:45.760 | We cannot continue the way we have to with respect to federal spending with respect to federal spending

00:03:51.040 | bureaucracy and inefficiency in the federal government and so something has to happen and if this is the path by which this gets resolved in

00:03:57.800 | the limited window that's in front of

00:04:00.120 | This this particular administration, which is probably two years, maybe four. Maybe this is what has to happen

00:04:05.000 | Shabbat, where do you stand on?

00:04:07.640 | freeberg's interesting

00:04:09.880 | Metaphor here that we're sending meteors into each of these departments to blow them up and see if they survive an extinction level

00:04:17.600 | Event I saw you nodding. Do you think this is an interesting framing great take? I have nothing to add to Friedberg state

00:04:24.200 | Got it. Who's your favorite? Yeah, you asked me the question. I answered who's your favorite?

00:04:29.480 | Well, I think let's take you on and Vivek off the table because that's an obvious one that we're behind since the beginning. Yeah

00:04:36.280 | And we know and we all support the idea who's not against more efficiency

00:04:40.000 | I mean, you have to be an idiot to be against efficiency. It's like the easiest one to say you love

00:04:43.680 | I think the highest beta pick so far has been Bobby Kennedy. I think the second highest beta pick is

00:04:50.240 | Matt gates

00:04:52.680 | Explain highest beta pick in this context, please. I think the third is Tulsi Gabbard

00:04:58.320 | That there is the potential for an

00:05:00.640 | Enormously positive two or three Sigma outcome, but there's also the chance that it can really not work. Hmm

00:05:10.040 | That was exactly why I picked Bobby Kennedy because he's gonna shake it up

00:05:14.320 | Right Peter Thiel just did this podcast with barry weiss and it was fantastic by the way, highly recommend highly recommend. He's awesome. Yeah, the

00:05:21.600 | One of the great things he said is that he was talking about science

00:05:26.360 | But I think the example works here as well, which is that we didn't have enough skepticism and we had too much dogma

00:05:32.520 | he was talking about sort of like the the death of science and

00:05:36.560 | I think that that idea applies here as well, which is that the federal bureaucracy has not really been challenged

00:05:44.960 | and Vivek put out a very

00:05:46.960 | Compelling post on X where

00:05:50.240 | He basically said like what when you on the one hand there's going to be radical transparency

00:05:55.560 | but on the other hand, there's a lot of

00:05:57.560 | Case law that we can use to kind of try to really dismantle

00:06:01.520 | the government apparatus and they're putting themselves on a shot clock to do it by

00:06:06.360 | 2026 for the 250th anniversary, so I think I'm really predisposed to this idea that

00:06:15.800 | It'll force the government to be very resilient at the end of this process and I think that's a good thing and it'll probably be

00:06:24.200 | Very different than what it is on the way in and I think that that can be very positive

Trump's Mandate: An Extinction-Level Event for Federal Bureaucracy

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