back to indexBogleheads® Conference 2023 - Jonathan Clements with Charley Ellis
Chapters
0:0 Introduction
2:15 Jack Bogle's nightmare and dream
4:6 Winning the Loser's Game
8:20 Active vs passive investing
14:34 Before index funds (or something else?)
22:51 Yale Investment Committee, David Swenson
31:52 Jack Bogle
40:9 Audience Q&A
00:00:06.520 |
I will just quickly introduce Jonathan Clements, 00:00:13.160 |
He is a former Wall Street Journal columnist. 00:00:16.640 |
I will say for me as a young analyst working at Morningstar, 00:00:22.640 |
and really very much influenced my own career path to talk more 00:00:26.400 |
about personal finance and financial planning. 00:00:29.920 |
And has the Humble Dollar blog and also was involved 00:00:34.720 |
in a great book project, a book I just love that has come 00:00:37.920 |
out over the past year called My Money Journey, which is essays 00:00:42.160 |
by people about how they found their own financial footing. 00:00:46.120 |
So Jonathan, if you can come up here and introduce Charlie 00:00:56.720 |
I moved back to the United States from London in 1986 00:01:05.800 |
which meant that basically I was a glorified fact checker. 00:01:08.400 |
I spent the next two years of my life trying to make sure 00:01:11.240 |
that the senior writers didn't make too many errors 00:01:19.760 |
And Forbes also at the time had a great library. 00:01:24.760 |
And that's where I got my personal finance education. 00:01:28.200 |
And going through the stacks down in the second floor library, 00:01:34.360 |
I came across this book called Investment Policy. 00:01:38.760 |
Now, Charlie, that really wasn't a very catchy title, was it? 00:01:44.120 |
Investment Policy was a book that came out in 1985, 00:01:49.440 |
but it really grew out of a financial analyst journal article 00:01:54.200 |
that appeared a decade earlier in 1975 called The Loser's Game. 00:01:59.640 |
And it was, of course, written by Charlie Ellis. 00:02:03.000 |
So, Charlie, tell us a little bit about the story behind 00:02:09.600 |
into what's become a phenomenally selling book, 00:02:14.280 |
>> Do you mind if I take just a minute and go 00:02:21.600 |
>> You know, you are a difficult individual, I know, 00:02:27.280 |
>> I'm looking out at this really large audience. 00:02:31.400 |
And those of you who I've met obviously have certain 00:02:38.520 |
I'd like you to think just for a minute about Jack Bogle, 00:02:50.960 |
His nightmare was that he would be forgotten. 00:02:56.680 |
And it really, really mattered to Jack that he not be forgotten. 00:03:02.200 |
As he told me, the only reason I'm really writing books is 00:03:04.760 |
so I might not be forgotten, at least for a while. 00:03:07.840 |
But I'm really, really worried about being forgotten. 00:03:12.240 |
And if you look at this group or walk the hallway 00:03:15.720 |
or that lovely sign out front with Jack's picture, 00:03:34.520 |
The second thing is, Jack was a real tightwad, 00:03:39.520 |
and he made a celebration out of being stingy and cheap. 00:03:56.680 |
This is the first time in 50 years that I've been 00:03:59.320 |
in a public speaking situation with no fee whatsoever. 00:04:26.520 |
Whereas golfers, it takes a while to get there, 00:04:31.160 |
particularly if the weather's nice a little bit. 00:04:50.160 |
>> I wish I were a really gifted tennis player, but I'm not. 00:05:10.160 |
who more than anyone else invented the American space 00:05:20.000 |
He conceptualized what space could be all about, 00:05:26.320 |
and the administration really understood this is something 00:05:37.960 |
Much more important to him, he was a gifted musician. 00:05:41.960 |
He and three members of the Los Angeles Symphony Orchestra 00:05:44.800 |
performed in public as a string quartet quite often, 00:05:49.040 |
and took on some very complicated pieces of music. 00:06:01.440 |
And he wrote a book called Extraordinary Tennis 00:06:09.280 |
So I bought the book, and it was a mind-opening experience for me. 00:06:15.520 |
The purpose of the game, for those of you who are expert, 00:06:19.760 |
is to hit a shot that goes so close to the line 00:06:23.640 |
that the other person can't quite get it back, or is hit so hard 00:06:28.000 |
that the other person has put a little bit on their back foot, 00:06:31.160 |
or in a series of shots has them running back and forth 00:06:48.400 |
is determined almost entirely by who loses the most. 00:07:00.280 |
I hit it out of bounds sometimes with the least intention. 00:07:03.760 |
I never wanted to do any of those things, but they do happen. 00:07:14.160 |
One of his recommendations was hit the serve always, 00:07:20.520 |
that is about as good as you can do and get in 80% of the time. 00:07:26.160 |
If you do that, you will double fault once or twice in a set, 00:07:31.600 |
And your second serve will keep the other player 00:07:45.440 |
So I realized, my God, this is a brilliant understanding, 00:07:49.000 |
and it applies entirely to investment management. 00:07:52.280 |
If we could just eliminate our dumbhead mistakes, 00:07:59.840 |
"I'm terrified I'm getting out of the market at the wrong time," 00:08:03.320 |
or, "I'm excited as could be about this is a really opportunity 00:08:21.360 |
-And by the way, Charlie, thanks to Wikipedia, 00:08:29.960 |
I won't sing "Happy Birthday" to you because... 00:08:38.560 |
half a century -- the original article half a century ago. 00:08:42.240 |
And at the time, you had spent a considerable period 00:08:45.000 |
covering analysts with Donaldson, Lufkin, Genrette. 00:09:04.800 |
of being a stockbroker is you get to meet a lot of people. 00:09:10.560 |
you meet a lot of people at major institutions. 00:09:16.240 |
in Northern Manhattan and Boston and Chicago. 00:09:25.640 |
And one of the things you couldn't help but realize 00:09:28.000 |
is these guys are all really good at what they're doing. 00:09:37.840 |
Second thing you learned is they're all fighting 00:09:57.360 |
That's not going to work out all that well for all of them. 00:10:03.680 |
And that was, for me, a really opening-minding insight 00:10:09.000 |
that just they are not trying to compete with the market. 00:10:18.360 |
But when you're competing with brilliantly talented people 00:10:20.840 |
with great educations and all ferocious ambition 00:10:36.680 |
- They thought that they were playing a loser's game. 00:10:45.840 |
but I thought your article was beautifully written 00:10:47.880 |
or it was fun or your analogy was really terrific, 00:10:52.760 |
I'm going to beat the dickens out of the market 00:10:59.880 |
So far, the evidence seems to be going the other way. 00:11:10.920 |
that active investment managers, as talented as they are, 00:11:18.120 |
we have never in the world had such a talented group 00:11:21.640 |
as we have now, active management practitioners. 00:11:27.160 |
We have never had as much equipment for them to use. 00:11:31.080 |
The computing power that they carry around in their pockets 00:11:34.040 |
is way beyond anything that could have been imagined 00:11:50.440 |
all day, every day through the internet is unbelievable. 00:11:55.160 |
If you haven't played with the Bloomberg terminals 00:12:00.400 |
find an opportunity to go play with the loop terminal. 00:12:12.040 |
Most people have two, one at home and one at work. 00:12:15.160 |
A lot of people have three, one at home, one at work, 00:12:18.160 |
and one in the car that drives them into work. 00:12:53.720 |
and you've had some experience as a prize fighter, 00:12:57.840 |
and you and I meet each other somewhere out here 00:13:29.160 |
and I might flinch at the idea of killing somebody 00:13:33.000 |
No, you've got a machine gun and I've got a machine gun. 00:13:50.000 |
That's what's happened to the investment management world. 00:14:01.600 |
and all of them, for the individual, are marvelous. 00:14:05.760 |
You should see what I've got in the way of technology. 00:14:08.520 |
You should see what I've got in the way of information. 00:14:18.840 |
They make all of us more and more and more equal. 00:14:21.760 |
And if you think the market's gonna do 7% a year 00:14:24.960 |
and you've got a 1% fee, that's a 15% of returns fee. 00:14:39.080 |
- So just to give you some historical context, 00:14:43.400 |
when Charlie's original essay came out in 1975, 00:14:58.000 |
So when you hear Charlie talk about his essay 00:15:11.000 |
not only didn't want to believe, simply didn't believe. 00:15:13.960 |
They really did believe that they were better than average. 00:15:18.200 |
So Charlie launched a firm called Greenwich Associates, 00:16:01.640 |
an analysis of their strengths and weaknesses 00:16:04.880 |
with a series of three, four, five specific recommendations 00:16:17.000 |
They did not have institutional or industry coverage. 00:16:38.880 |
that was counterproductive because brilliance 00:16:42.520 |
in creative ideas, without having the full understanding 00:16:58.360 |
who covered their industry and then found the best ideas 00:17:03.680 |
And as a result, they were never gonna have access 00:17:11.280 |
to build a significant institutional business. 00:17:30.640 |
"Well, Mr. Gottesman would like very much to see you, 00:17:33.480 |
"but he would like very much that you would come for lunch." 00:17:41.480 |
'cause we just told him he's doing everything wrong 00:17:52.200 |
So I went in and with all the politeness I could set us, 00:17:59.580 |
He said, "Before we get in the conversation, Charlie, 00:18:04.940 |
"You told us that we couldn't succeed with what we're doing 00:18:11.280 |
"We can't succeed with most institutional investors, 00:18:18.020 |
"and we do individual stock brokerage for individual people. 00:18:26.780 |
Look, ooh-wee, why would he invite me to come in 00:18:47.420 |
Well, Sandy, we've got this really interesting service 00:19:01.620 |
because most people are going after the large pension funds. 00:19:10.100 |
Ooh-wee, this is gonna be a difficult situation. 00:19:19.580 |
I realized I've got to come up with something 00:19:23.340 |
because he has just shot down the two possibilities 00:19:30.000 |
"Sandy, you're one of the best investors anybody knows. 00:19:35.460 |
"Would you talk about your favorite all-time investment?" 00:20:02.580 |
and I knew something about the Buffett partnership, 00:20:05.460 |
but I didn't really know very much about it at all. 00:20:07.500 |
So I said, "Sandy, can you do me a big favor? 00:20:11.780 |
"Would you talk in depth about Berkshire Hathaway? 00:20:15.740 |
"Start by telling me how long you're going to own it." 00:20:32.300 |
We couldn't possibly borrow any money from a bank. 00:20:38.460 |
we were in serious jeopardy, probably wiped out. 00:20:46.820 |
which we could do if we would defer our annual bonus 00:20:52.220 |
And the other fellows in the partnership said, 00:21:01.060 |
"but yeah, I think that's a really good idea. 00:21:14.700 |
"Charlie, you know something about investing, 00:21:24.420 |
Sandy started talking about Berkshire Hathaway 00:21:37.260 |
"I think we should put everything into Berkshire Hathaway." 00:21:44.900 |
It's a really, really well-run investment organization 00:21:49.940 |
and it's in fairly conservative stocks most of the time 00:22:01.180 |
and the stock was selling a little over $1,000 a share 00:22:31.220 |
and now, of course, it'd be stupid to sell it 00:22:38.900 |
So I'm looking at it sort of like a flower bond. 00:23:05.260 |
heading up the investment committee for Yale University. 00:23:08.180 |
- I was on the investment committee for 17 years 00:23:17.340 |
- No, no, I was sitting in the front row seat 00:23:35.860 |
He was as nice a guy as you would ever want to meet. 00:23:51.380 |
His greatest personal strength as an investor 00:24:00.140 |
Most of us think risk will take care of itself. 00:24:02.540 |
Not David, he really wanted to manage the risk 00:24:09.660 |
he had invented the first major derivative transaction. 00:24:14.660 |
$100 million swap between floating rate and fixed rate 00:24:23.740 |
Nobody had ever conceived of doing anything quite like 00:24:31.660 |
who would be the right clients to do the transaction with. 00:24:35.380 |
And then of course, the fee was pretty attractive 00:24:46.820 |
David invented the endowment model concept of investing, 00:24:52.820 |
which is probably the most powerful development 00:25:00.780 |
That anybody has ever done except possibly indexing, 00:25:05.780 |
which I'm devoted to, so be careful, there's a bias there. 00:25:10.540 |
When he got to Yale, New Haven, I have to tell you, 00:25:15.620 |
New Haven is somewhere between New York and Boston. 00:25:21.780 |
Nobody needs to have some place to live and work 00:25:33.900 |
There was no way that somebody who was really good 00:25:41.140 |
And it was sort of the desert of investment management. 00:25:59.060 |
the first really serious-minded investment committee 00:26:03.380 |
that Yale had ever had, which is an interesting challenge. 00:26:07.820 |
He put together one after another after another 00:26:12.260 |
first-rate insights into how you could do one thing 00:26:19.380 |
If you really wanted to have a talented investment team, 00:26:22.540 |
fine, start with someone who is a gifted teacher, 00:26:32.100 |
that the smartest students at Yale will all want to take. 00:26:36.300 |
And Yale has not a very large undergraduate college, 00:26:40.180 |
but a little over a thousand students per year. 00:26:47.100 |
in terms of talent and creativity and ability to learn. 00:27:01.740 |
Within the seminar, make it spellbinding experience 00:27:09.140 |
Choose the one or two or three students each year 00:27:22.140 |
proves that they are really gifted at doing the work, 00:27:25.100 |
offer them a two or three year extended position. 00:27:34.260 |
offer them a chance to stay permanent on the team. 00:27:42.260 |
because Yale's got all kinds of sports equipment 00:27:44.340 |
and facilities and David's a very good athlete. 00:27:56.500 |
that are very close-knit, bring people together 00:28:01.820 |
Be sure that they have a chance to learn an enormous amount 00:28:07.260 |
because they're included in all the most important meetings 00:28:11.260 |
and they participate in the decision after the meetings. 00:28:19.980 |
passes the word, students pass it on to other students, 00:28:23.900 |
So it didn't take more than two or three years 00:28:34.220 |
and then he carefully selected the best of those students 00:28:37.140 |
to be members of his seminar and then took it from there. 00:28:40.820 |
- So in terms of the investment committee overseeing-- 00:28:50.740 |
or did you ever second guess David's decisions? 00:29:02.980 |
He was very careful to find a cluster of people, 00:29:08.500 |
but a cluster of people with different backgrounds 00:29:11.100 |
who would really be committed to helping the Yale endowment 00:29:15.140 |
and who would be sources of insight and information 00:29:22.340 |
So it was his investment committee without a doubt. 00:29:25.620 |
And then he treated them as though they were gods 00:29:38.180 |
The intensity back and forth was quite terrific. 00:29:42.820 |
Only once in 17 years did I see a recommendation 00:29:55.980 |
I think what we ought to do is take this back 00:30:01.720 |
Once in 17 years, and if you look at the Yale endowment, 00:30:06.620 |
it had over a hundred different investment managers, 00:30:09.700 |
most of whom none of us would recognize by name. 00:30:12.740 |
There was no well-known investment management firm 00:30:19.940 |
in David Swenson's array of investment management 00:30:23.100 |
because he was reaching for people who were so talented, 00:30:32.540 |
He was the first client for a very large number, 00:30:45.700 |
even though I would not have recognized four out of five 00:30:58.620 |
The average duration of the relationships was 17 years. 00:31:10.420 |
of the investment manager relationship turnover 00:31:24.300 |
I knew that he had been a friend of John Neff 00:31:30.940 |
For those of you who've been long-term investors 00:31:35.500 |
I was also gonna ask Charlie about Burt Malkiel. 00:31:38.700 |
Charlie's also good friends with Burt Malkiel. 00:31:44.740 |
probably the second most famous book that Charlie's written, 00:31:49.340 |
And of course, Burt and Charlie sat on the board of directors 00:31:58.660 |
and I have one last topic that I wanna talk about, 00:32:02.900 |
one last series of stories, which of course is Jack Bogle. 00:32:49.260 |
to reconsider what they wanted to do with their lives 00:32:54.820 |
You heard earlier observations about the service ethic 00:32:59.140 |
that's deeply rooted in the people who work at Vanguard. 00:33:11.740 |
and I saw all kinds of opportunities to observe. 00:33:43.060 |
when a large group of people can have a purpose 00:33:49.460 |
And they work away at it all the time, all the time. 00:34:03.980 |
And everybody who's at Vanguard has to drink the Kool-Aid. 00:34:09.980 |
we're here to serve with higher and higher value 00:34:18.620 |
And they mean it because investors in the Vanguard funds 00:34:22.100 |
are the owners because the funds own Vanguard. 00:34:26.100 |
And a little bit of a skittishness on taking risk 00:34:37.100 |
know that many of us have got this terrible temptation 00:34:44.460 |
rather than when things look pretty grim but might do well. 00:34:48.780 |
So if you think in terms of leader or founder or inspiration, 00:34:55.740 |
then I think you'd have to rank him exceptionally high. 00:35:07.100 |
The New York Stock Exchange had 50 photographs 00:35:15.980 |
because they had such a high regard for what he had done. 00:35:32.580 |
He looked at the cost of a computer, the price tag, 00:35:41.420 |
he would be able to bring the cost levels down. 00:35:43.780 |
He really got way behind the curve on computerization 00:35:57.260 |
to seize and make a real success out of ETFs. 00:36:06.620 |
"ETFs are a cheap way for people to own stocks." 00:36:11.620 |
"'cause you can trade them anytime you want to." 00:36:16.420 |
"The hedge funds trade them all over the place. 00:36:22.140 |
"They would buy and sell them when they need to, 00:36:26.360 |
"We're not gonna have anything to do with ETFs. 00:36:44.860 |
He decided, for reasons that were totally inappropriate, 00:36:58.060 |
And finally, they said, "Jack, for Christ's sake, 00:37:15.300 |
So he went out and organized a new investment service idea. 00:37:27.860 |
"I'm gonna raise a very substantial amount of money, 00:37:34.500 |
"and you're gonna be able to be a participant in it." 00:37:49.280 |
but that's just not an attractive proposition. 00:38:02.240 |
So they're gonna drop back 8% at the very beginning, 00:38:21.860 |
And gradually, his aspirations for volume of sales 00:38:26.860 |
went from a substantial $250 million offering 00:38:42.320 |
and finally, he squeezed it out into the marketplace. 00:38:48.080 |
And it went nowhere, 'cause everybody could see. 00:38:57.480 |
And then he thought, you know, if we drop the load, 00:39:06.760 |
By that time, everybody knew not to touch it. 00:39:27.180 |
that was also being managed, or distributed, by Wellington, 00:39:48.960 |
but being that far ahead of your times, I'm not so sure. 00:40:01.280 |
- All right, we'll try and rattle through these 00:40:04.640 |
You need to be a little less loquacious, Charlie. 00:40:18.000 |
Should investors make room for alternative assets 00:40:40.080 |
If I were running an alternative investment fund, 00:40:47.880 |
where big money makes relatively quick decisions 00:40:52.840 |
and sticks with them for the long, long time. 00:40:55.520 |
That has nothing to do with individual investors. 00:40:59.480 |
I wouldn't dream of talking to individual investors. 00:41:08.920 |
and you would never be able to shake me loose from that. 00:41:22.480 |
and I couldn't compete successfully with institutions 00:41:27.640 |
I might very well find a way to create an access 00:41:55.000 |
but that doesn't mean that all the players are fair to you, 00:42:02.840 |
I don't belong there, and I think most individual people 00:42:34.960 |
If you are fluent in Chinese and are resident in China 00:42:39.960 |
so that you can access a lot of the information 00:42:48.360 |
because the Chinese market is still overwhelmingly dominated 00:42:55.280 |
you could, if you were a logical, hardworking person, 00:43:08.560 |
you could probably do better than the Chinese market. 00:43:12.760 |
I have two grandsons who are half Chinese, half American. 00:43:42.240 |
"We are gonna go to China and make our life there 00:44:16.800 |
- Jonathan, you should have given me a pre-warning 00:44:27.040 |
that that's what you were gonna ask because-- 00:45:12.120 |
It was an article that had Jack and Warren Buffett 00:45:26.760 |
- It's one of the great mysteries of all time, 00:45:54.480 |
I know the directors were not part of that decision. 00:45:57.160 |
I know that the management wasn't part of that decision. 00:46:03.040 |
is a certain curmudgeon that wanted not to be forgotten 00:46:08.040 |
and wanted to be, wanted desperately, desperately 00:46:20.520 |
Or, as one of Jack's assistants from many years ago, 00:46:27.040 |
there are only two groups of people in the world 00:46:43.120 |
- Thank you, Charlie. - It's been a great conversation.