back to indexE9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Chapters
0:0 The besties reflect on Trump testing positive for COVID-19: treatment, impact on society & the election
9:6 What treatment is Trump receiving & is it scalable to everyone? Is this the future of disease mitigation?
16:55 What happens to the election if Trump is incapacitated & cannot run?
20:36 Debate reaction - who won, who misfired?
29:5 Live reaction to Trump being flown to Walter Reed hospital
30:43 Has the economy began to separate from political influence?
36:25 Reflection on the execution & reaction to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's letter
41:19 How Chamath would have reframed the letter, how Slack & company forums have platformed non-work discourse inside companies
49:30 Reflection on Jack Dorsey & Dick Costolo's reaction, what this means for Coinbase going forward
59:4 Predictions for 2021
00:00:00.000 |
Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another all in podcast. We just got the show 00:00:05.240 |
notes and I'm ripping them up because the president has the Rona. We knew this was a 00:00:11.080 |
possibility. We had an incredible docket brewing. But as fate loves irony, we found out on Wednesday 00:00:19.080 |
night, I believe just in a brief timeline here, Wednesday night, Hope Hicks, his personal 00:00:24.780 |
assistant got the Rona. And then of course, President Trump announced late last night 00:00:31.920 |
that he in fact had the Rona and that his wife Melania also had the coronavirus. So with us 00:00:39.680 |
today to discuss all things tech, politics and coronavirus, David Friedberg, David Sachs and 00:00:45.240 |
Bestie C, Chamath Palihapitiya are with us. I guess maybe we'll just drop it right to you, 00:00:53.900 |
science kid here in the class uh what is when we look at the president's um physique he's 00:01:04.540 |
clinically obese technically i'm not saying that to be cruel but he's a 74 year old just 00:01:09.520 |
clinically obese and snorts adderall we don't know that that's just a claim um but seriously 00:01:15.380 |
what what is the prognosis here and then i my i understand he's now got a experimental treatment 00:01:21.860 |
was just announced an hour ago uh the taping of this on friday afternoon and of course we wish 00:01:26.580 |
them all the greatest speedy recovery etc but let's get let's get into the facts here i think 00:01:32.020 |
the overall mortality rate for um someone of his age is in call it the two to four percent range 00:01:39.080 |
right and for someone with with you know he's not known to have diabetes or high blood pressure but 00:01:44.440 |
generally you kind of say there's some risk factors maybe associated um so a couple points 00:01:49.320 |
but the reality is the treatment that he got was not as good as the treatment that he got 00:01:51.840 |
is one that's not available to the public and is effectively like creating these uh you know 00:01:58.480 |
taking these antibodies to the coronavirus and he got eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy 00:02:04.800 |
um that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate the virus and they're not 00:02:10.340 |
widely available they're not publicly available these treatments but uh you know based on the 00:02:16.820 |
early trials and the general experience with using synthetic and you know polyclonal antibodies for 00:02:21.820 |
uh infectious uh disease like this it's pretty effective and he should kind of uh you know 00:02:28.220 |
recover pretty quickly i would imagine so so him him dying would basically be a two-outer him 00:02:33.540 |
getting this special treatment makes it a one-outer if we were talking about this in poker terms 00:02:37.980 |
uh chamath when you when you look at this turn of events and you saw the news what was your first 00:02:42.940 |
thought um that it's now basically a hundred percent guaranteed that we will have 00:02:50.500 |
all the data that we have and we're going to be able to get the data that we need to get the 00:02:51.800 |
all of the most transparent data about coronavirus um soon so for example you know we we've been in 00:02:59.020 |
this position where we've been debating hydroxychloroquine we've been debating these 00:03:03.720 |
um you know all of these different uh regimens um and the reality is the president of the united 00:03:10.000 |
states if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care um we're all in some ways fucked so it's 00:03:18.620 |
it's probably likely that he's going to get the thing that folks know to watch and that's the 00:03:21.780 |
work and then it'll be hard for everybody else to not want to ask for that and then it's going to be 00:03:27.860 |
even harder for everybody to then not get some version of it and so i think probably we're going 00:03:34.600 |
to de-escalate a little bit of mask stuff of testing stuff of you know what the right course 00:03:42.220 |
of care is and you know frankly i'll be honest with you i hope you know i i wouldn't vote for 00:03:46.640 |
him but i hope he's well um i don't want anything to happen to the guy um and i hope that we're 00:03:51.760 |
going to get the thing that he wants to do and i hope that he recovers and it you know he kicks it 00:03:54.560 |
in the ass and that um whatever he took to get better everybody else can get it too all right 00:04:01.060 |
sax coming around the horn here talking about the political ramifications of this you were feeling 00:04:06.420 |
that uh trump was likely to lose uh but here we are with the october surprise and i hate to make 00:04:13.040 |
this uh handicapping of the election but this certainly is going to have some impact so with 00:04:19.520 |
your rain man mind and when you go through this deck of cards here what is your brain how do you 00:04:26.480 |
assess this as uh the rain man is this going to be a net positive for his election um results a 00:04:35.840 |
negative neutral handicap this for us in your mind you must be thinking through this and i and again 00:04:41.280 |
disclaimers we all want him to get better nobody wishes him out i'm sure some people do but 00:04:45.840 |
no i'm just saying i'm seeing a lot of uh glee frankly 00:04:49.360 |
on on twitter yeah a lot of people saying i told you so or karma's a bitch or something like that 00:04:55.780 |
yeah um you know sort of implying that trump getting this was was a moral failing you know 00:05:02.220 |
um and uh you know certainly a lot of people are kind of reveling in it um i think he was 00:05:08.400 |
certainly careless i mean he didn't wear masks he said he didn't like to wear masks so well i mean 00:05:12.860 |
do you wear a mask inside your house no but if i was in walking around at a 00:05:19.020 |
a debate or something like that if i was on an airplane with 20 people yeah i would wear a mask 00:05:24.040 |
i mean you know there were certainly a lot of precautions around the president i mean more than 00:05:28.920 |
most people i mean any of us could get it from anybody yeah you know um if you know our wife 00:05:33.720 |
happens to go out to meet a friend for lunch or something like that and then brings it back so 00:05:37.840 |
there's almost no amount of carefulness you can do to completely avoid this 00:05:42.040 |
unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself alone somewhere um so i just you know this idea 00:05:48.560 |
that somehow getting covid is is a moral failing is is what i would take issue with it's not um 00:05:54.960 |
it's not altogether unlike uh the crazy things that um the religious right was saying in the 00:06:01.200 |
1980s like you know about aids like when you know jerry falwell said it was god's punishment or 00:06:07.360 |
something like that trying to imply that the gay plague i mean let's just call it what it is they 00:06:11.520 |
basically said they they implied somehow that this was um you know some sort of uh just come up and 00:06:18.480 |
you know or something like that retribution from god retribution exactly exactly and and you know 00:06:22.880 |
the virus doesn't know who it's infecting obviously it doesn't target sinners or whatever 00:06:27.040 |
and so i just think that um you know this all this this sort of uh gleeful um sort of blaming 00:06:34.640 |
that's going around um is is inappropriate and i think it could really backfire if um if trump 00:06:41.360 |
rapidly gets better i mean if trump is better in say a week um and is hitting the campaign trail 00:06:46.720 |
again you know what what previously will have appeared to be a moral failing could it could 00:06:51.680 |
now be argued would be a moral strength since he you know overcame it so easily and um 00:06:57.040 |
you know so i think that if if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the campaign trail again it's 00:07:03.200 |
going to make him look strong i think that if he has a hard time with the virus if it's enervating 00:07:08.080 |
the way that i think it took out boris johnson i mean i've heard british commentators say that 00:07:13.120 |
boris johnson's just not not even the same doesn't have the same level of 00:07:16.720 |
energy even now than he did behind before the virus then i would think it could really hurt 00:07:21.680 |
trump in the last you know this campaign look we i think we all know people um i'm sure you 00:07:28.480 |
guys do i do who have gone through this and they all say the same thing which is this thing really 00:07:34.400 |
sucks now there are all these people that say oh it's like dancing on tulips or daffodils 00:07:39.600 |
i've never encountered a single person like that i see that um i see that maybe on twitter or a 00:07:45.920 |
friend of a friend but all of my friends who've gotten it they have really struggled through it 00:07:51.120 |
some of these people are older some of these people are younger some of these people are 00:07:54.960 |
healthy some of these people are not and consistently they say the same thing which 00:07:58.640 |
is that there's a couple of days where it literally feels like your chest is being 00:08:01.920 |
uh pounded inside you you can't move you're just in pain and then afterwards the aftermath is you're 00:08:08.720 |
at you know 50 60 70 of your lung capacity like it does for a couple of weeks i mean doc sands is 00:08:15.120 |
a friend of ours and he was very public with his experience he tried to avoid it as best he could 00:08:19.680 |
he got hit with it he got hit hard and he said he felt like he was going to die it was the worst 00:08:23.200 |
thing he's ever experienced i i have friends that still complain two three four months after the 00:08:27.200 |
fact that they're at 50 60 of cardiovascular capacity and you know these these people that 00:08:32.080 |
i that i'm specifically thinking about were really healthy going into coronavirus and so i i don't 00:08:37.440 |
know i just think it's something none of us want um i don't think you would want to wish this on 00:08:42.160 |
anybody of course not yeah you know especially if you're a person who's been through this for a long time 00:08:44.320 |
you know especially frankly the president of the united states has a role um and so i think folks 00:08:49.360 |
just need to sort of like class up here um and hope that we figure out that he a gets the best 00:08:58.000 |
care and then b we all know what it is and then c that we can get access to it too that's that's 00:09:04.960 |
honestly i think that's all we should be wishing jamal do you see did you see the letter they 00:09:08.080 |
published on what he's getting so they did the go ahead and read it go ahead and read it the doctor 00:09:13.120 |
the doctor published it was not too long ago right jason i saw it on your it just happened like an 00:09:17.040 |
hour ago i tweeted it yes so he got he got eight grams of polyclonal antibodies this is the 00:09:22.080 |
regeneron formulation so basically they've isolated the antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that 00:09:27.600 |
patients have presented in their body and then they use recombinant dna technology to produce 00:09:32.400 |
those antibodies synthetically so it's a bunch of antibody proteins and then they turn it into an 00:09:37.440 |
injection into a formula that they can put in your body and you now have effectively neutralizing 00:09:42.160 |
antibodies so they gave him eight grams which is a pretty high dose and it gets it you know goes in 00:09:48.160 |
intravenously you can have sometimes an allergic reaction to that but it seems like he was fine 00:09:52.720 |
from that because they didn't announce an allergic reaction and then uh you know the the antibodies 00:09:57.920 |
are now in his bloodstream and they bind to the virus so any virus that's floating around 00:10:01.280 |
immediately gets wiped out it gets eliminated from the body so theoretically this is the way 00:10:05.280 |
we should treat all infectious disease that's right and i do think that by the way i do and 00:10:09.520 |
i've written about this i think that is the future of infectious disease i think that's the future of 00:10:11.280 |
infectious disease is we're all going to get a polyclonal cocktail every year instead of getting 00:10:15.440 |
a flu shot you get a bunch of antibodies to all the new stuff that's emerging and it wipes everything 00:10:19.840 |
out about this david just think about this there was so much raging debate that got politicized 00:10:26.080 |
between the left between the right between different folks of people who believed in 00:10:29.920 |
different things around what the right course of care was there was no single source of truth i'll 00:10:35.280 |
just say this again when you treat the president of the united states and he gets better that is 00:10:40.320 |
canonical single source of truth i'm sorry but there can be no debate after that that the smartest 00:10:46.160 |
people with the access to all of the research i mean let's be clear you don't think a call went 00:10:51.840 |
out last night before they deployed the nuclear warhead stuff to all of the um r d labs and all 00:10:59.200 |
the big pharma companies and said what do you got and the answer came back at the top of the ticket 00:11:04.320 |
was this regeneron cocktail yeah they had they definitely had made that call before to prep for 00:11:08.720 |
this but yeah right totally great yeah i think that's a really good point i think that's a really 00:11:09.440 |
good point totally great now um when you say it highlights what the future of infectious disease 00:11:16.640 |
treatment is and should be which is that all of us should be getting a booster shot every year 00:11:21.680 |
of synthetically produced antibodies uh that will uh counteract any new infectious disease floating 00:11:28.800 |
around in the world and we're getting to the point in the next 10 15 years that that should be 00:11:32.880 |
reality for everyone well yeah it highlights that but it also highlights that in the absence of the 00:11:38.400 |
most powerful management of the world we're going to be getting a booster shot every year and that's 00:11:38.560 |
going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be a booster shot every year and that's 00:11:38.560 |
going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be 00:11:38.560 |
going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be the most powerful man in the world 00:11:39.920 |
the most powerful man in the world getting the sickness that we're all going 00:11:42.160 |
getting the sickness that we're all going to basically and point fingers about 00:11:44.160 |
to basically and point fingers about what the right solution is and so it 00:11:45.680 |
what the right solution is and so it can't be the case that the next time 00:11:47.760 |
can't be the case that the next time there's a crazy illness that's floating 00:11:49.760 |
there's a crazy illness that's floating around in society we need to go and 00:11:52.080 |
around in society we need to go and target you know five or six of the 00:11:54.260 |
target you know five or six of the leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus 00:11:56.740 |
leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus this plus that beyonce heaven forbid 00:11:59.220 |
this plus that beyonce heaven forbid you know what i mean like this is crazy 00:12:01.380 |
you know what i mean like this is crazy yeah this can't this can't be how we 00:12:03.060 |
yeah this can't this can't be how we find single source of truth yeah well i 00:12:05.700 |
find single source of truth yeah well i think if i think politically speaking i 00:12:08.100 |
think if i think politically speaking i think there's a lot of upside here for 00:12:09.620 |
Trump if he does get better in a week. I mean, if these polyclonal antibodies work, 00:12:13.860 |
and he emerges from the White House, you know, fit as a fiddle in a week, 00:12:17.780 |
he's going to say, the cure is here. You know, I was right. We don't even need a vaccine. The 00:12:21.600 |
cure is here. It's over. And all the I told you so's might flip around. 00:12:26.840 |
How far off would that be from the truth, David? 00:12:28.680 |
Well, if the polyclonal antibodies work, I mean, then it's just a matter of scaling them. 00:12:34.180 |
Can it be scaled, Freberg? Is this easily scalable? 00:12:37.100 |
Yes. But by the by, I'll just point out the challenge with this is a lot of people 00:12:42.860 |
north of 15% will have because antibodies, remember, they're a protein. And if your 00:12:49.760 |
cells didn't make that protein, they look like a foreign protein when they show up in your body. 00:12:54.140 |
And so very often, when you get a foreign antibody treatment like this, 00:12:58.640 |
you will have some sort of allergic reaction because your body will react and attack that 00:13:02.840 |
protein. And so it's not as simple as just saying, Hey, we should just scale 00:13:07.040 |
this up. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of 00:13:07.040 |
antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of 00:13:07.040 |
antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.100 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.100 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.100 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.100 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.140 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.180 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:07.200 |
of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot 00:13:27.180 |
because there's just zero way. Oh, regenerants been running 00:13:30.120 |
these trials since March 100%? Yeah, 100%. That's right. They 00:13:34.380 |
what what the I can tell you for sure, when Trump got this 00:13:37.380 |
treatment, I guarantee they gave him Benadryl, and they gave him 00:13:40.980 |
a steroid shot and they probably gave him a little bit of 00:13:43.700 |
cortisone or they had it on the side. Because that's kind of 00:13:46.000 |
like the standard sort of regimen you would use when you 00:13:47.980 |
get this sort of, you know, synthesized or, or convalescent 00:13:52.140 |
plasma type treatment. And, you know, he comes out of this thing 00:13:55.200 |
on the other end, and he's fine. But but but that treatment 00:13:59.460 |
regimen is required. So it's, you know, you sit down in an ID 00:14:02.280 |
booth, and you get a fucking IV and you get shots to go along 00:14:04.700 |
with it. So it's not as simple as just chipping it out to 00:14:07.200 |
everyone's home and giving them that treatment, you know, 00:14:09.420 |
and only Am I correct that only 300 or so people have gotten 00:14:13.980 |
this to date? Is that correct with the trial? I don't know the 00:14:17.000 |
answer to that. I know that convalescent plasma, which is 00:14:19.680 |
called the poor man's version of this treatment, which is 00:14:22.300 |
instead of synthesizing the antibodies, you're taking the 00:14:25.020 |
actual antibodies from other people that have had COVID and 00:14:27.840 |
recovered, you're isolating those antibodies, and you're 00:14:30.240 |
injecting them in other people's bodies. So that is what 00:14:33.020 |
convalescent plasma is, it is effectively a soup of all the 00:14:36.640 |
antibodies from recovered patients. Polyclonal antibodies 00:14:40.020 |
is the synthesized version of those isolated antibodies where 00:14:43.140 |
we use fermentation systems and bioengineered cells to make 00:14:46.860 |
those antibodies, then we isolate them and we and we use 00:14:49.360 |
there any chance that the president would make a bad 00:14:54.840 |
Because he would get to dictate his treatment as a powerful 00:14:58.740 |
person like Steve Jobs did, tragically, I saw a doctor 00:15:02.880 |
saying this is one of the problems with powerful people is 00:15:04.680 |
that they actually can, you know, make a bad decision 00:15:08.040 |
because doctors will let them have too much of a say in is 00:15:12.960 |
I think the answer is no, because they didn't put out a 00:15:17.820 |
he didn't go with his own treatment protocol. And also, 00:15:24.660 |
no, I was just gonna say and also, you know, it eliminated 00:15:27.720 |
all of the other less nonsensical, but equally sort of 00:15:31.320 |
question mark treatments. And so you know, I think they went 00:15:34.380 |
right to the answer, which would only have been really possible 00:15:36.880 |
if the best docs basically said, this is what we're doing. And I 00:15:40.680 |
think David mentioned this earlier, that it had been 00:15:46.720 |
there's a there's a protocol that was written down months 00:15:49.160 |
ago, vetted and revetted probably every week or every 00:15:54.480 |
And so the minute it happened, there was nothing to talk about. 00:15:57.300 |
And I suspect that that is probably what happened because 00:16:00.240 |
there is no way you'd want to be, you know, it's kind of like 00:16:02.880 |
being a pilot, like, you follow a systematic set of rules to 00:16:07.680 |
deal with the overwhelming majority of boundary conditions. 00:16:10.980 |
And this seemed like a pretty obvious boundary condition, you 00:16:13.560 |
would have wanted to have a protocol for well in advance. 00:16:16.500 |
okay, so I want to just do one handicapping here, Sax, I'll 00:16:20.040 |
have you take this one off the bat. Because this was the 00:16:22.320 |
chatter on Twitter. Number one, you know, you're not going to 00:16:24.300 |
be able to get this one. The first two, I think are just crazy 00:16:27.940 |
conspiracy theories. He got it on purpose or he's lying, put 00:16:30.060 |
those aside for a second, you can answer them if you want to. 00:16:31.980 |
But the third one is, hey, what happens if he's incapacitated and 00:16:36.300 |
cannot run? Or, God forbid, he died. And so if he's on a 00:16:42.360 |
ventilator, if he cannot leave the hospital, he's in ICU. 00:16:47.080 |
It's not even a question, the 25th Amendment deals with that. 00:16:49.380 |
Yeah. Yeah. So it goes to Pence. And if Pence cannot do it for 00:16:53.060 |
whatever reason, but he's I think he's already... 00:16:54.120 |
I was actually going to refer to the election, though. What 00:16:56.280 |
happens to the election if in the next three, four weeks, he's 00:17:01.920 |
Well, I would assume it's up to the party to make a change to 00:17:07.060 |
his ballot if they wanted to. But I think if he's in the ICU, 00:17:10.720 |
So we would literally have an election with him on a 00:17:14.520 |
ventilator or him. I mean, if he was unconscious, could he? Can 00:17:20.000 |
people still go vote for him? I think this is a possibility. 00:17:23.940 |
I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the 00:17:28.440 |
best care, it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him 00:17:35.580 |
in about a week. And it redounds to his political advantage. I think 00:17:40.120 |
there's probably a 40% chance that he's got more like a three or four 00:17:46.460 |
week case, which I think would hurt him because he just wouldn't be 00:17:48.540 |
able to campaign. And then there's maybe like a 5% or 10% chance of 00:17:53.400 |
Zach, I wonder if you could talk about the election. 00:17:53.760 |
I wonder if he's got, even if he recovers in a week, the odds are pretty high that he'll have 00:17:58.860 |
a long tail of fatigue, right? And so if he changes his strategy and just does things 00:18:06.660 |
remotely and whatnot, doesn't do rallies anymore, and he doesn't really come out and say he's 00:18:13.320 |
fatigued, but there's this behavioral change, does that change things, do you think? 00:18:16.800 |
I think he needs to be able to campaign and hold these rallies. I think that's an essential part of 00:18:23.580 |
election strategy, but also it's always been his way of going over the heads of the media that hates 00:18:29.400 |
him and talking directly to people and rallying his base and field testing his ideas. There was 00:18:34.860 |
that period during lockdowns when he just stopped doing rallies for several months and it really 00:18:39.600 |
felt like he was adrift. So yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think that could easily swing 00:18:46.980 |
the election a couple of points and cause him to lose. 00:18:53.400 |
and there were a bunch of folks in the neighborhood where I was staying, 00:18:58.740 |
and I was walking my dog and they were walking their dog, so we were all kind of walking side 00:19:03.480 |
by side and they all were ramping up to go to a Trump rally. They were super excited about this 00:19:09.300 |
moment to go hear what he has to say. They sounded like they were kind of in this undecided camp, 00:19:13.320 |
but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what he had to say and kind of experience 00:19:16.860 |
that Trump moment. It was a real kind of ground level, I think, proof point to that. 00:19:23.220 |
Yeah, I think that's a good point for your statement around people really need to feel, 00:19:26.580 |
and because that's a big part of his kind of MO is that ground level experience. 00:19:30.960 |
It is, and I think it was one of the reasons why no one saw his election coming in 2016, 00:19:36.600 |
is if you turned on the TV and just listened to the commentators, I mean, aside from maybe Fox, 00:19:43.080 |
it seemed like everyone just hated him. But if you attended the rallies, you would see that he 00:19:48.540 |
was reaching a lot of people, tens of thousands of people at each event, and he was flying around 00:19:53.040 |
three events a day, tremendously energetic. So yeah, I think it would hurt him a lot. 00:19:58.920 |
But look, if he's back on the stump a week from now, you're probably going to see all sorts of 00:20:03.660 |
people on the right saying, "I told you so," and "God healed him," and "He must be the chosen one," 00:20:10.260 |
or who knows? We could be seeing a Weekend at Bernie's moment here. 00:20:14.580 |
Even if he's just tired, they'll prop him up on a big stick and hold him up in front 00:20:22.860 |
of the crowds and then put him back in the airplane and fly him back home. 00:20:25.440 |
I think we'll know if he's too tired, because he gets up there and he talks for like an hour and a 00:20:29.940 |
half. An hour and a half? He's done two or three. An hour and a half is short for him. 00:20:34.200 |
Yeah. Is it possible we could be talking about Trump having less energy than Biden in a debate, 00:20:42.180 |
which I think is a good segue here? Are there going to be two more presidential debates? And 00:20:46.320 |
what was our take on the absolutely embarrassing shit show that we saw on Tuesday night, which was, 00:20:52.680 |
I think, supposed to be the topic today that we're going to lead off, which was the debate, 00:20:55.740 |
which seems unimportant now. It feels like a year ago. 00:20:58.860 |
I know. How do you expect us to comment on something that happened so long ago? 00:21:02.280 |
It was 72 hours ago. I mean, come on, people. 00:21:09.120 |
2020 is so exhausting. I think I've aged 30 years in one year. It's like three decades. 00:21:15.060 |
That debate was just a dumpster fire. The way that I thought about it was- 00:21:24.660 |
No, no, I agree. It was a disaster for Trump. It was a disaster for Trump. 00:21:28.680 |
Go ahead, Sax. Explain, because he's your boy. Are you now not going to vote for him after that 00:21:34.320 |
Just to clarify for the audience, I'm not pro-Trump. I'm just anti- 00:21:40.620 |
I'm anti-hysteria. I always support the side that seems least hysterical to me at any given time. 00:21:46.560 |
Did you vote for Trump last election? Yes or no? Or would you be comfortable even saying that? 00:21:53.460 |
But okay, so onto the debate. I think both Biden and Trump both had a trap to avoid. I think Biden's 00:22:01.440 |
trap was appearing senile. I think Trump's trap was appearing unhinged. I would say that Biden 00:22:06.900 |
avoided his trap, and Trump did not. By constantly attacking Biden, interrupting him, it was 00:22:13.980 |
counterproductive. I mean, what you want to do with Biden was let the man talk. He's a gaffe machine. 00:22:18.540 |
You know, let him talk, let him say things that will get him in trouble. Instead, 00:22:22.140 |
by constantly interrupting him, Trump kind of let him off the hook. 00:22:25.560 |
Now look, I mean, both of their bases, it's like a sporting event. They're just going to 00:22:32.760 |
root for the side they already came to support. But I don't think Trump helped himself with the 00:22:38.580 |
few percent of independents who are still out there looking to make a decision. 00:22:42.180 |
I think you're totally right. It was really surprising because if he had 00:22:46.980 |
just left him to his own devices, you would have let it play out. But I thought Biden, to be honest, 00:22:51.960 |
for some moments, he was fabulous. So I thought he was excellent on race. I thought he was 00:22:57.840 |
incredible in the moment that he basically stood up to Trump about his son, Hunter, and he looks 00:23:03.480 |
in the camera and he basically says, "Look, I love my son. My son's had troubles and I support." I 00:23:09.000 |
mean, amazing. And so in those moments, it's so hard to not see that guy as presidential. 00:23:16.380 |
It's easy for Democrats or people that are voting for him like me, but I think if you 00:23:21.780 |
were a Republican, you got to look at that guy and say, "Man, that is a decent dude." 00:23:24.900 |
Yeah. I think Biden helped himself a lot. He helped himself a lot. 00:23:28.860 |
He did in certain key moments, he did fabulously well. And in other moments where 00:23:33.360 |
there were traps, he actually got built up because Trump kept interrupting. And Joe was 00:23:37.320 |
smart enough to stop talking so that it amplified the sense that Trump was interrupting him. 00:23:41.880 |
Trump to me seemed pathetic and scared. He's scared of losing. He felt like a bully who had 00:23:49.080 |
been laughed at by the whole class. Nobody takes him seriously. 00:23:55.860 |
Chris Wallace. The moderator was kind of like, "What are you doing, sir? Please." I think Chris 00:24:01.140 |
Wallace, I mean, I know people were critical of him, but Chris Wallace is like, "Sir, please." 00:24:05.280 |
Just trying to appeal to basic decency and Trump just not getting it made Trump look so bad. It's 00:24:12.300 |
just, I think, confirmed with people say the demographic he has to win is white women in 00:24:16.980 |
a lot of these swing states. I mean, I don't think women want to vote. I'm not going to speak for a 00:24:21.420 |
lot of women here, but my understanding is women don't like guys like that who interrupt constantly 00:24:25.680 |
and who are belligerent and badgering. And they kind of like a great dad who defended, to your 00:24:31.320 |
point, Chamath, his son and said, "Hey, listen, my son's got problems. My other son died. He's 00:24:36.420 |
I really think, and we talked about this a little bit before, but the surface area in 00:24:43.800 |
terms of policy between the Republicans and the Democrats now are virtually non-existent. So look, 00:24:51.240 |
foreign policy, they both hate Russia, they both hate China, they both need India, 00:24:58.140 |
and the Middle East is irrelevant because we're moving to a carbon neutral alternative energy 00:25:03.180 |
world. They also don't need Russia as an example. So all of this stuff that used to matter before, 00:25:09.360 |
in so much of the foreign policy that dictate how Americans would fight wars, spend money, 00:25:13.980 |
incite democracy, protect certain leaders, it's all out the window. And they both think about it 00:25:21.060 |
because the surface area is so similar. That's number one. 00:25:25.380 |
What about the economy? Because it does seem that they're pretty similar too. 00:25:28.320 |
So number two, economically, they're so similar because they both want to spend trillions of 00:25:33.360 |
dollars just under a different label. One is sort of under a Green New Deal and the other is called 00:25:37.980 |
an infrastructure bill or whatever it is. And then number three, they will both have the same Federal 00:25:42.960 |
Reserve that is tied to the hip of Treasury who is already committed to be trillions of dollars a 00:25:48.600 |
year in hock, backing up all the debt. And that's what we're talking about. And that's why we're 00:25:50.880 |
talking about the debt that basically exists. And so if you put all these things together, 00:25:54.180 |
it's a popularity contest. And this is why I think Joe Biden has an advantage because in a popularity 00:25:59.460 |
contest where you're just picking the figure that you would either have a beer with or feel the most 00:26:04.500 |
comfortable with, there's an element of this which is like, it's just a decent human being. 00:26:08.460 |
It's easier for Biden to get that across than it is for Trump. And when Trump behaves that way, 00:26:13.740 |
it just violates some simple rules of decency. In the debate against Hillary Clinton, 00:26:20.700 |
he didn't act this way. And he was more, it was like watching a show. You were kind of tuning in 00:26:29.400 |
to see what the theatrics would be. Or in the debates in the primaries in 2016 against the 00:26:35.520 |
Republicans, it was theatrical. Here, it was just kind of not, it was pretty sacks. 00:26:42.780 |
In that way, sacks, you think the Democrats put up the right candidate? Because if you did put 00:26:46.980 |
up Elizabeth Warren, if you did put up a Bernie Sanders, or God forbid, both of them at the 00:26:50.520 |
same time, it would be a very stark contrast. You would have the socialist ticket that wants 00:26:55.740 |
to ban the billionaires and stop capitalism and kneecap it and spend a bunch of money 00:27:02.280 |
on redistribution of wealth. And here, Biden doesn't, he's never said redistribution of wealth. 00:27:07.980 |
He's never said ban the billionaires. He's pro-capitalism. Feels like a safer bet to 00:27:12.360 |
the majority of Americans. Did the Democrats actually do a good job putting Biden up there? 00:27:20.340 |
now that we know he's not senile. I mean, I think there was some real question about that going into 00:27:24.060 |
the debate. I think he proved in that debate that he's not. And he's always kind of had the decency 00:27:28.620 |
card that Jamal talks about. Now that we know he's not senile, I think he is the Democrats' 00:27:35.460 |
most electable candidate because he is more centrist than certainly an Elizabeth Warren or 00:27:41.820 |
some of the other candidates that you mentioned. Elizabeth Warren would have moved the election 00:27:50.160 |
In many ways, strategically, no, but think about this. If you basically converge on roughly the 00:27:55.680 |
same strategy with different labels, you make the election one of style. And there are a lot 00:28:02.040 |
of people who really want decency back in the presidency more so than they want anything else, 00:28:08.340 |
because they already come into the election with a level of skepticism that policy, A, won't change 00:28:14.400 |
that fast, and B, to the extent it changes, doesn't affect them. And so for years, we've been electing 00:28:19.980 |
people we like. And this is probably the most extreme test of that idea. 00:28:24.840 |
I think there was like— I mean, if you think about that debate, you could probably 00:28:28.560 |
simplify it down into the audience being part of three camps. They either know who they're voting 00:28:32.880 |
for, Trump, they know who they're voting for, Biden, and then some folks who are kind of maybe 00:28:37.260 |
they're changeable. And for the folks that are changeable, there's a diversity of objectives. 00:28:43.140 |
Right? There are some folks who care about the decency, some folks who care about policy. But 00:28:49.800 |
you go into this debate with an expectation of Trump and an expectation of Biden. And I would 00:28:55.440 |
say that Trump was flat to down relative to expectation, and Biden was flat to up. And so 00:29:01.740 |
that's where I would kind of give the ticker to Biden. 00:29:05.340 |
And sorry, I don't want to interrupt, but I just want to read you this headline, 00:29:09.180 |
"President Trump will be admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on Friday for a few days." 00:29:16.260 |
Well, hold on a second. That is groundbreaking. 00:29:19.620 |
Well, his doctor said it's because they're out of an abundance of caution. They just want to 00:29:23.520 |
have him in a place where he can be treated if and as he needs it. That may be a cover story. 00:29:34.080 |
When you get a treatment like he got today, you know, eight grams of immunoglobulin therapy like 00:29:41.640 |
that. It sucks. I've had this treatment. I've had immunoglobulin therapy before. And you get 00:29:48.780 |
knocked out. You're on all these steroids. You're on all this anti-allergy stuff. You're a mess for 00:29:55.080 |
a day or two. And you know, you want to get like IVs and stuff. They give you all sorts of stuff 00:29:59.640 |
to go with it. I got to imagine that after getting that therapy, he's going to need to be in some 00:30:04.800 |
degree of care. And I would imagine it's probably better to just do that around doctors and with 00:30:08.340 |
all the equipment than try and, you know, kind of bring everything into the white house. 00:30:14.160 |
Well, I mean, do you think it could be like an anaphylactic shock? 00:30:19.560 |
It might be. He might be having some reaction. Yeah, totally. 00:30:22.560 |
Like I said, a large percentage of people that get these antibody therapies have some sort of 00:30:28.800 |
allergic response. It's all the way from anaphylactic to, hey, I'm having my throat's 00:30:33.120 |
closing. Hey, I feel I'm getting flushed. I'm getting a fever. There's all sorts of ways that 00:30:38.160 |
The world is changing so fast that we can't even complete 00:30:43.140 |
Can I tell you one other thing? What did you guys think about the fact, 00:30:46.680 |
this is a little morbid, so you can, we can choose not to talk about it, but 00:30:49.680 |
the stock market basically did nothing today on the news that the most important person in 00:30:56.640 |
the free world, theoretically… I think you just answered your own 00:31:01.200 |
question, Chamath. I can chime in on this one. I don't think that people perceive that Trump is 00:31:06.120 |
good or bad for the economy either way, and that the economy is separated now from politics, 00:31:11.100 |
because they think Biden or Trump are going to have the same policies, which you said before. 00:31:14.400 |
They have the same policies, so why does it matter? If Trump were to tragically die, 00:31:18.660 |
it would not make a difference in the American economy. It's not going to affect people buying 00:31:22.560 |
iPhones. It might shake people psychologically, but I don't think in a massive way, because he's 00:31:26.940 |
almost out of office. So I think it's all baked in. That's why the market did do anything. What 00:31:30.660 |
do you think, Sax? I wanted to disagree slightly with the idea this election doesn't matter. 00:31:34.320 |
I think it will matter a lot if the Democrats win the Senate, as well as the president, 00:31:40.920 |
because then they will have one-party control, and they can pass as much legislation as they want. 00:31:45.240 |
And I think a lot of things will get signed, and I think the Biden presidency could be very 00:31:51.360 |
consequential, at least for two years, while all this legislation is passed, even if he's not out 00:31:57.780 |
in front saying very much. I mean, the significance will be in the pen to sign the legislation. If the 00:32:05.640 |
Republicans hold on to the Senate, but Biden wins the presidency, I agree with you that it's not going 00:32:10.740 |
to be a tremendously consequential election, because we'll have gridlock and divided government 00:32:14.880 |
again. And so I think a lot hinges on whether Biden wins with or without the Senate. 00:32:21.300 |
I don't disagree with you. The only thing that I will say is that I think that 00:32:25.260 |
Biden will drag the country, especially if it's an up and down Democratic ticket, 00:32:32.940 |
back to the '80s and '90s, more to the sort of the George Baker school of diplomacy and governance. 00:32:40.560 |
And I think that if, and I don't know him to know this, but I think that if he really were 00:32:45.720 |
to have a legacy, I would suspect that part of, again, because he's mentioned that, why did he run? 00:32:53.520 |
He said the pivotal moment was like Charlottesville and Trump's reaction to Charlottesville. I think 00:32:58.140 |
Biden is really moored by this concept of decency. And I think that if he were there and he thought 00:33:04.020 |
to himself, I'm going to be here for four years because that's the right responsible thing to do, 00:33:07.500 |
but no more, I don't think that you're going to see a bunch of crazy legislation pass. I think 00:33:13.080 |
Biden's going to say, guys, this is what I expect to do. By the way, did you, and I think I would 00:33:18.360 |
bet on that because of what he said at the beginning of the debate. He's like, I am the 00:33:23.040 |
Democratic party. I don't know if you guys remember that. I do remember that. 00:33:27.120 |
That was incredible. That was so powerful. That was a very Darth Sidious emperor move 00:33:32.700 |
when he said, I am the Republic. No, no, no. I think he was trying to basically say like firewall 00:33:37.320 |
the far left or the far left, the socialist left and say that rhetoric is not what I was elected 00:33:44.340 |
on. I was elected on my platform. I am the party. This is what I believe and everybody 00:33:50.340 |
else will have to toe the line. And by the way, in the end, that's not such a bad thing. 00:33:57.000 |
I agree. I think that that was a really important moment for him is for him to say, look, I'm in 00:34:01.920 |
charge here because the Republicans have been making the argument that he's a Trojan horse for 00:34:09.000 |
AOC. And so it was very important for him to come forward and say, no, I'm the one leading 00:34:13.980 |
this ticket. Now, that being said, and I think it would be a great thing for the country if Biden 00:34:19.740 |
brought the Democratic party back to more of a, you know, Bill Clinton to, you know, Obama type 00:34:25.740 |
centrism or, you know, center leftism, I guess you could say, as opposed to this sort of like crazy, 00:34:31.800 |
you know, woke Marxism or Maoism, whatever you want to call it. 00:34:36.960 |
But I'm, I'm very skeptical that he will, because I think Biden has always positioned himself 00:34:41.940 |
throughout his career as being at the center of the Democratic party. And I think he moves as the 00:34:47.580 |
Democratic party moves. I agree. He's not going to be all the way to the left of the Democratic party, 00:34:51.240 |
but those left elements will drag his sort of center to further to the left and we'll end up 00:34:57.780 |
with sort of a, a compromise. And I think at the end of the day, if the Democrats win Congress, 00:35:09.960 |
The, the White House is, uh, not that far away. It looks like it's a 30 minute drive 00:35:17.760 |
from Walter Reed sending a helicopter. Is that normal? Because he drove there last time. 00:35:25.920 |
Would that be indicative of this as an emergency type situation, 00:35:29.820 |
sending Marine one as opposed to just driving there for 20 minutes? 00:35:32.880 |
I think they get, look, they'd be, there'd be a lot of liability if he had an actual medical 00:35:36.600 |
emergency and they were just like, yeah, we're going to send him for a few days out of an 00:35:39.960 |
abundance of caution. The fact that they said out of an abundance of caution, I think if there is 00:35:45.060 |
an emergency, you, you can't get away with saying that. Oh, you can for sure. They would lie. 00:35:50.100 |
I don't know. It'll come out later. Trump administration was above lying about situation. 00:35:55.560 |
If he's unconscious, they got to swear Penson. Yeah. There's a lot of reasons why you got to 00:36:00.060 |
be careful. I'm not saying he's unconscious. I'm just saying it's not even unconscious. Like, I'm just thinking, 00:36:06.420 |
I'll add here is sending a helicopter for a 20 minute ride than a motorcade. 00:36:09.840 |
Like seems a little, I mean, I would take a, I would take a helicopter to the 7 11. If I had a 00:36:15.240 |
helicopter, you're taking a helicopter down to the poker game. Okay. Uh, let's, 00:36:25.560 |
this is, I think a good jumping off point to an interesting discussion that blew up on Twitter 00:36:30.840 |
earlier this week, which is we can't keep up with all the politics, the, the rhetoric, 00:36:36.240 |
the vitriol and this polarization. So, uh, Coinbase co-founder and CEO, Brian Armstrong wrote a letter 00:36:43.380 |
saying, Hey, listen, if you, uh, want to talk about politics, that's fine. Not at my company 00:36:50.040 |
anymore. We're going to have a no politics rule, no debating the stuff. And we're going to be 00:36:54.480 |
ultra ultra focus focused. I'm sorry at work. Um, and you can check your politics at the door. 00:37:01.380 |
When you read this SAC, you've come out in support of Brian Armstrong. Uh, what was 00:37:06.060 |
your take on his position about leave your politics at the door when you get to work? 00:37:11.940 |
Right. Well, I think, I think what Brian, so I, I did, I did compliment it, 00:37:16.380 |
um, his, his manifesto. And I, I think, uh, are you an investor? I, I am, I'm a small investor 00:37:22.020 |
in Coinbase. Um, and, uh, and, and I'm friendly with, with Brian. And so I, I certainly, you know, 00:37:29.640 |
like the idea of, of defending him against unfair attacks, but, um, I also genuinely like the 00:37:35.400 |
manifesto. Um, and I think, you know, his argument kind of boils down to, to three components. I 00:37:40.260 |
think number one, that having these debates on every issue, whatever the issue du jour is pulls 00:37:47.340 |
the company's focus away from its core mission, which he really emphasized. And, um, you know, 00:37:52.560 |
that mission mission is challenging enough in its own right. Um, second, he was saying that, 00:37:57.780 |
and this is something I've said before as well, which is just that politics is just 00:38:02.220 |
increasingly divisive in our society. It's just inherently divisive. 00:38:05.220 |
And therefore it's, it's, uh, corrosive to team cohesion. And the more you have of that in your 00:38:10.440 |
company, the worse it is for, you know, the team. And I think the third thing he, he, he mentioned, 00:38:16.440 |
which I thought was really interesting is that the freewheeling debate of, or discussion of politics, 00:38:22.020 |
you know, like, like that we're having here, but we kind of have our own little safe zone here. It 00:38:27.060 |
risks, uh, hurt feelings or misunderstandings that can become HR issues because people can then 00:38:35.040 |
They feel unsafe and they report to. And so that's a further distraction. 00:38:38.940 |
I felt unsafe at moments in this podcast. I'll be honest. There was a couple of moments. 00:38:42.000 |
Well, I think, well, I think one of the reasons why this pod sort of works is because we're all, 00:38:45.900 |
we're all friends and, uh, we've created a safe space for us to have these conversations, 00:38:50.460 |
but the workplace is very different. It's not, you know, and, and, and what I read 00:38:54.300 |
Brian trying to do is to reimpose a true safe space by saying, leave your politics at the door. 00:39:00.660 |
Now, I think he's been deliberately misconstrued. 00:39:04.860 |
By, by critics who want to say that, well, you have to leave your conscience at the door. You 00:39:10.080 |
know, that's not true. He's not saying that you can't have your own political views or contribute 00:39:15.660 |
to causes that you like, but you just do gotta do it on your own time. Kind of like Mr. Hand 00:39:20.940 |
said in fast times at Ridgemont high, you know, like do that on your own time. Um, and I, and, 00:39:27.480 |
I think like, I mean, look, I think about this from the point of view of one of the employees working 00:39:34.680 |
at one of these companies that doesn't want to be a party to the debate. Um, if I'm an engineer at 00:39:40.560 |
Google or Coinbase, I go into work and I am captive, right? I don't have the option of not 00:39:46.620 |
showing up to work. If I go to a rally, I have the option of saying, I'm going to go to this rally 00:39:51.600 |
and walk away. Cause I don't like the speaker or I'm going to go to the rally. Cause I want 00:39:55.500 |
to participate in this dialogue or this debate. I can't do that at work. 00:39:58.980 |
So it's unfair for work, which is a place that I, as an employee have to go to every day. 00:40:04.500 |
To be a forum for people to express themselves on political points that I may or may not agree 00:40:10.620 |
with, but more importantly, may or may not want to actually be a party to the discussion around. 00:40:15.360 |
Um, and I think that's the most important thing to note here is like, it's not about enabling the 00:40:20.580 |
free speech of the employees that want to debate. It's about the protecting the workspace for the 00:40:25.680 |
employees that don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed to that. Um, and that's really 00:40:30.180 |
As a Chamath, as a person of color who, um, you know, 00:40:34.320 |
have, I'm sure some sh has some shrunk feelings about what we've seen in terms of police shootings 00:40:39.960 |
or maybe in your own personal life experience facing racism, uh, again, as a person of color, 00:40:45.240 |
what are your thoughts on the workplace? Is it, is it possible for you to leave that at the door? 00:40:51.900 |
That was the criticism. I think I saw from the, you know, people who were supportive of BLM and 00:40:58.140 |
they said the background here was they were trying to get Brian to explicitly say black 00:41:04.140 |
lives matter and to, you know, have the company rally behind that. Um, and that he didn't, he, 00:41:11.340 |
he didn't want to have that be part of the work environment and that he was offering people four 00:41:15.420 |
to six months severance if they would leave, if they don't like the new rules. So what are your 00:41:18.840 |
I think that this whole thing became a quagmire unnecessarily. I think that he showed, 00:41:26.460 |
um, a lot of naivety, um, and frankly, like, um, you know, 00:41:33.960 |
a little bit of stupidity really. Um, it was really poorly written. Um, and that's why it's 00:41:40.080 |
been so misunderstood and misconstrued in my opinion. I think a lot of what he had to say 00:41:45.240 |
was valid, but when it was so poorly presented and you know, the, the essay was like eight minutes 00:41:51.300 |
and it was rambling and the mission was like, you know, 97% down on the, you know, in the, 00:41:56.040 |
it's just like, it was a convoluted fucking mess. 00:41:58.080 |
So if I had to do it again, if I were him or if I was his advisor and he had asked me, you know, to 00:42:03.780 |
proofread the essay, what I would have said is more of the following, which is our mission, 00:42:09.360 |
which is, you know, I think to create financial Liberty or something, something like that, 00:42:13.740 |
you guys can find out what it is for the whole world is unbelievably important. We will talk 00:42:20.220 |
about every issue through the lens of achieving our mission. And we will be disciplined about 00:42:25.980 |
saying which things matter and which things don't. So for example, if somebody says, listen, 00:42:30.960 |
I really believe in spaying and neutering dogs, 00:42:33.600 |
the right answer shouldn't be, Hey, shut the fuck up. It says, okay. 00:42:37.860 |
How does that allow us to maximize our users? How does that allow us to achieve our mission? Why does 00:42:46.440 |
it allow us to achieve our mission? And if you ask the question, why four or five times in a 00:42:52.680 |
very first principles way, you'll get to the answer. So I would have rather said, we are 00:42:56.580 |
going to train people how to understand what builds up to our mission and what is otherwise 00:43:03.420 |
something that you should leave at home. And in that context, there are a lot of things actually 00:43:09.240 |
that are political that need to be brought, especially into a company like Coinbase, 00:43:13.680 |
which is working in crypto, which is all about eliminating the financial barriers of people that 00:43:19.620 |
don't have access to it. Like you are trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary part of the 00:43:26.160 |
economy. And so there are potentially many movements that matter. And those movements in 00:43:33.240 |
countries in which you will want to gain users may look like political movements. 00:43:38.100 |
Well, and that was Jack Dorsey's point. He came out. 00:43:41.580 |
Yeah. So I just think it was kind of a too superficial. It was very Silicon Valley-esque 00:43:47.520 |
reaction. It was emotional. It was a little insecure. And to me, it missed the mark because 00:43:54.660 |
there was a lot of validity in what he was saying, but presented in a lens of Silicon Valley bullshit. 00:44:03.060 |
And it was not well thought through. So if he had rewritten it and he had said 99% of what he said, 00:44:10.740 |
but through the lens of why we're going to think about a first principles way of defining how 00:44:17.700 |
everything ladders into the mission, he will train his employees. Instead, what he created 00:44:22.620 |
was a schism and a decision point. And I'm not sure that that's how you maximize value in 2020 00:44:27.600 |
as a CEO, because at the end of the day, you have to deal with an entire population cohort that 00:44:32.880 |
is that are in their twenties, early thirties, teenagers that will eventually want to work for 00:44:37.860 |
you. And whether we like it or not, they're different. And one of the things you need to 00:44:42.180 |
do if you're going to run an enormous company is understand the psychology of your employees, 00:44:46.500 |
understand the psychology of how movements and decisions are organized, and then play to win. 00:44:53.100 |
And it's no different than anybody else. If you want to be in the job, to be the starting point 00:44:58.560 |
guard for the warriors, you got to know how to fucking pass the ball. And if you're going to 00:45:02.700 |
be the power forward, you have to know how to do a certain set of things that are different than that. 00:45:06.420 |
And so I would sort of have framed it there because I think there was a lot of goodness 00:45:11.220 |
in what he said, but presented in a pretty shitty manner. I think it's good. He brought up the topic. 00:45:15.660 |
I do think there's a tactical issue here and he, he could have laid out the ground rules for, 00:45:20.760 |
I think to your point, Chamath of how we should talk about, uh, politics at work and what are 00:45:26.520 |
the ground rules. I think the number one issue here, which people don't talk about is that slack 00:45:32.520 |
and email and forums inside of companies have created a massive distraction. And when somebody 00:45:39.900 |
goes into the random channel, which is built into slack, and I know this is in the weeds, 00:45:43.500 |
but I have seen this happen at multiple companies. Now, slack infects a company. Somebody creates a 00:45:49.560 |
room about a topic, whether it's Trump or police violence or immigration, whatever it is. And then 00:45:56.820 |
people want to sound off on that. And now you've got an electronic form where people are talking, 00:46:02.340 |
talking about highly charged issues that makes people feel unsafe. And so what I told my companies 00:46:06.540 |
was, um, the two companies I run, you could talk about politics. If you want to go for a walk with 00:46:11.460 |
somebody and have coffee or lunch, and you want to have a two hour discussion about it, go for it. 00:46:15.660 |
Please do not put this in electronic form because it's a massive distraction. Uh, and there'll be a 00:46:21.120 |
record that could create downstream human resources issues to your report sex. I have a suggestion, 00:46:26.160 |
and this is an organizational design experiment, and maybe somebody listening will implement it. 00:46:32.020 |
Allow 100% free form debate about anything. One condition. You literally need to have a soapbox 00:46:39.280 |
and like in the 1880s Hyde park in London. Yep. You put the soapbox someplace in a safe space 00:46:45.940 |
where you can go and you can talk and people who want to listen will listen and people who need to 00:46:50.560 |
work can work and people who don't want to listen, don't have to be forced to listen. 00:46:54.400 |
What's the digital version of that, that you're suggesting? 00:47:01.840 |
You put the soap, you have a soapbox, you grab it, you put it down the ground, 00:47:05.740 |
you stand on it and you say it. And if you're not willing to do that, then, you know, it's okay. 00:47:11.440 |
Are you saying that there's no digital version of that? 00:47:13.900 |
Because people could, what I'm saying is that two things. One is the digital version is actually 00:47:20.020 |
training people to ask why, why does it matter? Now, the reason why it's important to ask that 00:47:25.960 |
is because somebody may say, I'll use Jason's example that he loves. We need to support the 00:47:31.660 |
Uyghurs in China. The best way to do that is to proliferate our software in the following way, 00:47:37.300 |
because it will free them from enslavement of the Chinese and it'll give them access to financial 00:47:42.160 |
independence. Wow. I mean, okay, that seems to be paying off the mission. So if you would, if so, 00:47:49.360 |
you got to give freedom for people to come up with these ideas, because it may the first version of 00:47:55.360 |
this idea may, may not actually be what the final version is. And the final version may be the killer 00:48:00.460 |
feature. So I, on the digital forum in the slacks, it should be why respect. It's a very respectful 00:48:07.540 |
question. It shouldn't, it should not be in any digital forum because it leads to chaos because 00:48:11.980 |
we see that on Twitter and what's happening is the Twitter derangement that we all suffer from 00:48:15.880 |
is now infected inside the communication system that runs the operating system of the company. 00:48:21.400 |
Go ahead. Yeah, that's exactly right. Yes, I do. I do agree with Jake on this one. So, 00:48:26.740 |
so look, I mean, Chamath is right that I'm sure I'm sure Chamath would have written a 00:48:30.280 |
better letter, but I think we understand the gist of what Brian was trying to say. And actually, 00:48:34.780 |
I thought it took a lot of courage to, to write it. And what he's basically saying is that politics 00:48:39.460 |
has become so divisive in our society that the, I mean, it'd be nice if we could have these reasonable 00:48:45.580 |
debates the way that we're having this discussion inside companies, we didn't have to have these 00:48:50.080 |
artificial restrictions, but we do, we have to, you know, it's the same reason, you know, that we 00:48:55.720 |
have the separation of church and state is because people couldn't stop killing each other over 00:48:59.140 |
religious wars. And so finally we had, you know, the treaty of Westphalia to stop it. And what 00:49:03.700 |
Brian's basically proposing is a, is a treaty for the workplace because we cannot get along around 00:49:09.040 |
politics. But David, he is the CEO of an $8 billion company. Could he not have hired somebody to edit 00:49:14.980 |
that essay? Okay. Well, I mean, look, I, I just, to me, like if it's meaning, if it's seriously well 00:49:21.100 |
thought through and it, and if it was as important as Westphalia, you would probably have a couple 00:49:26.500 |
of proofreaders corporate version. Okay. It's not, it's not historically polished for sure. Here is 00:49:32.200 |
Jack Dorsey's response. I don't have you guys respond to it. I think it's in your wheelhouse 00:49:35.980 |
in terms of what you said, Chamath Bitcoin, AKA crypto is direct activism against an unverifiable 00:49:42.460 |
and exclusionary financial system, which definitely affects so much of our society important to at 00:49:47.680 |
least acknowledge and connect the related societal issues. Your customers face daily. 00:49:52.840 |
This leaves people behind. I think he's right. You have, 00:49:56.440 |
you have to view this problem, not through the lens of your own emotions, not even through the 00:50:00.700 |
lens of the frustrations of your employees. You have to help shift the discussion to say, 00:50:04.660 |
why does this achieve our mission? And just constantly in a thoughtful, respectful way, 00:50:11.080 |
ask why, and by the fourth or fifth, why it will either be something that doesn't matter 00:50:17.140 |
and you can dismiss it quickly or something that actually is rooted in fact, and probably is 00:50:22.900 |
something you need to pay attention to. And maybe the way that the conversation 00:50:26.380 |
started was probably not with the right language that people given the chance would have framed it 00:50:31.300 |
differently. Okay. The worst take, uh, according to the internet's, uh, Twitter's ability to ratio 00:50:37.000 |
people, which is when you get more comments than likes, um, which is not normally how it works. 00:50:41.920 |
People are actually taking the time to explain to you how bad your take was as opposed to liking it 00:50:46.780 |
is what a ratio is. If you don't know, um, goes to Dick Costolo, um, who's a friend of ours, uh, 00:50:55.720 |
you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall 00:51:01.360 |
and shot in the revolution. I'll be ha I mean, and that's, that's enough to get you ratioed and 00:51:08.980 |
have this thing go supernova. I mean, Mike Cernovich is retweeting this and losing like 00:51:13.720 |
his mind over it. You know, that the former CEO of Twitter is inciting violence. He's a comedian 00:51:19.540 |
as well. Um, to Costolo. So I think he's joking here and, but he adds the punk, the exclamation 00:51:27.680 |
Here's here's here's my, uh, disagreement with, with Dick and, and with Jack is ultimately the 00:51:36.800 |
societal value of a company doesn't come from whatever platitudes or political statements it's 00:51:42.680 |
CEO makes, but rather from the quality of its products and the impact of its products. And in 00:51:48.260 |
that sense, Dick and Jack are living in a glass house. I mean, Twitter is a sewer of political, 00:51:55.640 |
diatribe and polemical hate. I don't know anyone who feels better after spending time on Twitter. 00:52:03.140 |
If Facebook is like cigarettes, I don't know what Twitter is. 00:52:08.500 |
Fentanyl or something, yeah. So ultimately, maybe Jack should spend his time figuring out 00:52:14.920 |
how to make Twitter into a less socially divisive product because just issuing 00:52:24.180 |
I agree with that. I don't think platitudes does it. All I'm saying is you have to view it through 00:52:30.300 |
the lens of, I want to become the most relevant company possible and achieve the most impact. 00:52:36.000 |
And I think that there are a lot of times where some of these issues, when presented politically, 00:52:41.780 |
underlying it is actually some feature or some capability or some way of seeing the problem that 00:52:48.520 |
unlocks more demand that can help you win. And not knowing a priori what the answers to those 00:52:53.720 |
questions are, that's not going to help you win. 00:52:54.160 |
It's important to train people on a framework versus say you can't talk because I guarantee 00:52:59.920 |
you what will happen is somebody with some killer feature will be too scared to say something because 00:53:04.560 |
they're not sure how to say it well. And you and I both know because we've seen many companies that 00:53:09.020 |
have gone through that cycle, those companies decay and die. 00:53:12.260 |
Yeah, I think it'd be great if a policy like this wasn't necessary. I mean, I agree it's 00:53:18.960 |
suboptimal, but I think it's caused by the fact that people just can't get along around politics 00:53:24.140 |
Yeah. Friedberg, what is your take on ultimately how Coinbase winds up the year or two after this? 00:53:31.460 |
Do they get more resumes of hyper talented people who want to embrace a politics social issue free 00:53:39.820 |
workplace? Or do millennials and you know, Gen C and this next group of talented folks say I don't 00:53:48.920 |
want to work for somebody who doesn't want to talk about these issues at work. And then at the 00:53:54.120 |
where you have a factory where you build companies. Do you have some rule around this yourself? 00:54:00.520 |
Or thoughts about how you run your companies? I think the more clearly you define culture, 00:54:06.440 |
the more successful your company will be. And right or wrong about whether or not you enable 00:54:12.520 |
the debate in the discussion and how you define the forums for kind of political discussion within 00:54:18.200 |
your company, the fact that there is a clear definition of delineation around this point, 00:54:23.880 |
I think removes the uncertainty. And I think he'll do exactly what he's hoping to do, which is to get 00:54:28.760 |
people to leave and to attract other people that better fit with that cultural model. I want to put 00:54:34.120 |
my game face on, I want to go to work and I want to win the game I'm here to play. I'm not here to 00:54:39.400 |
fuck around. I'm not here to do other stuff. I want this job because I believe in this mission. 00:54:44.200 |
And I want this company to succeed in what it's trying to do. And I think other places 00:54:48.440 |
that allow people to run around and, you know, do things that they may or may not appreciate 00:54:53.640 |
other people doing or, and you have this kind of low definition kind of culture, where some people 00:54:59.240 |
are happy, some people are unhappy, it all kind of, you know, slows things down. And I wouldn't 00:55:05.640 |
kind of encourage anyone to let that happen. I think it's really important to just define how it 00:55:11.960 |
is you want to operate, be really clear about the rules and the boundaries and then 00:55:15.400 |
that I agree with as well. I mean, I think it's very much within his right. And I think it took it, 00:55:23.400 |
courage and doing it, I just think that it misses the mark, because I think it was too emotional. 00:55:27.240 |
I think he could do a 2.0 version and just keep building on the manifesto and say, 00:55:31.080 |
hey, based on the feedback I got, here's how we're going to do it. No discussion. He on the 00:55:37.880 |
Reid Hastings put out that fantastic PowerPoint that I think we all know really well, 00:55:42.840 |
the cultural playbook from Netflix. And when did he put that out? Like, 00:55:51.080 |
And he's continued to refine it, right? If you look at 00:55:53.160 |
it, there's recent iterations of it, and they continue to kind of do a better job of defining, 00:55:56.680 |
you know, how do they intend to operate with people. And I think it's, it's only continue 00:56:04.200 |
to reinforce the innovation that drives that company into the $100 billion plus valuation 00:56:11.080 |
Yes. And if you if there's one important thing, which is that there's a meaningful difference in 00:56:17.160 |
the average age of a Netflix employee and the average age of a Silicon Valley company. Now, 00:56:23.880 |
I think the one thing that Brian could clarify is that you don't have to check your conscience 00:56:29.160 |
at the door. You it's not we're not saying that you can't have political views. You're allowed 00:56:34.200 |
to say things on Twitter or take political stands or donate to whoever you want. It's just that the 00:56:39.400 |
company itself is going to be a demilitarized zone. You know, we're not going to bring we're 00:56:43.880 |
not going to bring these contentious, divisive debates that really aren't related to our core 00:56:48.920 |
mission inside the company. So we can all work better. So we can all work better as a team. 00:56:52.680 |
Yeah, I think that's a really important thing to say. And I think that's a really important thing 00:56:53.000 |
towards the reason that we all joined this company. 00:56:55.240 |
But that's totally fair. But you know, all I'm saying all I'm saying again, I'll just say it 00:56:58.920 |
again. That is such an important thing to say. You could have had a proofread a couple times. 00:57:04.200 |
You didn't could have been could have come across the way you're saying it. 00:57:07.720 |
It didn't have to be written by GPT-3. You know what I mean? 00:57:10.440 |
Also, I think that it was the the dunk he did afterwards where he's like, and 00:57:16.200 |
by the way, if you don't like it, here's four months severance. Get the fuck out. 00:57:21.800 |
That was a pretty aggressive move as well. I don't know how you guys felt. 00:57:26.440 |
I think I think I kind of like the gangster nature of it. 00:57:29.000 |
I like I think it's I think it's great. It's like, if I'm on the team, and I believe in what he just 00:57:33.080 |
said, I feel great that he's flushing the shit out. And if I don't agree with it, it's like, 00:57:37.240 |
fuck, yeah, I'll take it. You know, like, it's really clear. And I think the clear cut definition 00:57:41.720 |
of culture is what every company needs to kind of pursue. And it's an ongoing pursuit. And you 00:57:46.120 |
can always do a better job with it. And culture is what you choose not to do as much as it is what 00:57:50.440 |
you do, right? I'm not going to talk about culture. I'm not going to talk about culture. 00:57:52.280 |
Friedberg is totally right. It takes a lot of courage to say, here's what I believe. 00:57:55.800 |
And if you don't, if you don't believe it, then it's okay for you to leave. And 00:58:00.200 |
here's a severance package that takes a lot of courage. So I applaud him for that. 00:58:03.800 |
Yeah, I mean, look, it's a free country. And we all have limited time, 00:58:06.920 |
we should all go work on the mission that is most important and inspiring to us. 00:58:11.880 |
And Coinbase has a very specific mission that Brian's defining. He's trying to find it clearly. 00:58:17.480 |
And if that mission is important and inspiring to you, then go work there. And if it's not, 00:58:20.840 |
then go work at the place where the mission does inspire you. And it may be a startup or maybe 00:58:27.160 |
a political organization, whatever it is, go do that thing that's most meaningful to you. 00:58:32.760 |
That's kind of my interpretation of what he was saying. 00:58:37.560 |
It was hard for me to interpret because it was so poorly written. 00:58:40.280 |
Well, also, I mean, it was also like a huge bomb on Twitter. And people's reaction to it 00:58:46.920 |
was based upon, I think, how they feel at this moment in time. And a lot of people feel, 00:58:50.760 |
This is why, I'm sorry, but communications is important. How you say things, what you say, 00:59:02.680 |
Yeah. All right. So 2021 is going to be upon us before we know it. 00:59:08.120 |
And I wanted to wrap here with each of your feelings on 00:59:11.240 |
the economy, technology and politics, economy, technology, politics. How do you feel about 2021? 00:59:20.680 |
Are you optimistic, pessimistic, neutral on those economy, politics, technology? 00:59:27.000 |
Have you guys ever been to Magic Mountain or Disneyland? 00:59:31.400 |
You ever get in one of those log rides and it's like raging rapids or roaring waters or whatever 00:59:38.360 |
And it's just fucking like you hop in and this thing just takes off down the river. 00:59:41.640 |
I don't know. Nothing summarizes it better for me. 00:59:45.960 |
But in so many ways, is that where I feel we are right now? We've all jumped on a bunch of 00:59:50.600 |
fucking logs and we're shooting down this rapid river. And I think a big part of what I'm feeling 00:59:56.280 |
and Chamath is in the middle of this, but there's this extraordinary velocity of capital right now. 01:00:01.640 |
And when I say that, I just mean capital is moving in large amounts very freely. 01:00:07.400 |
And that creates like once in a generation kind of opportunity. It's 01:00:11.400 |
in part because the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero. So there's all these trillions 01:00:16.120 |
of dollars moving markets. There's a change in an outlook and the world is being shifted in so 01:00:20.520 |
many ways. This is this really amazing moment that I think we can all be afraid of because 01:00:25.880 |
we're on a fucking roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat. But there is so much happening 01:00:32.040 |
in these markets that we kind of operate in. There's never been a better time to get your 01:00:38.040 |
business funded or to take your company public or to get customers to make quick decisions and 01:00:43.240 |
change their behavior, whether they're a consumer or an enterprise customer. 01:00:46.520 |
Money and decisions are happening at a... Money is moving at a faster pace than we've ever 01:00:50.440 |
seen and decisions are happening at a faster pace than we've ever seen. That's my general 01:00:55.400 |
sentiment. I don't think it stops going into 2021. There's just another kind of floodgate about to 01:01:00.200 |
open with this election one way or the other. But we're in the middle of this kind of raging 01:01:05.720 |
rapids right now. And it's a pretty scary but also kind of exciting kind of time. 01:01:11.800 |
It's so well said, Quinoa. I really agree with you. I think that it's kind of like if you used to take a second, 01:01:19.880 |
to make a $1 decision and a minute to take a $100 decision, the amount of money being flooded into 01:01:26.280 |
the economy now allows you to make a $100 decision in a second. So like the order of magnitude of the 01:01:33.720 |
mental barrier that it takes has changed. And I agree with you. I was thinking earlier this week 01:01:40.600 |
that it's really incredible time to be alive in one very specific way, which is obviously there's 01:01:49.160 |
stuff that's happening. There's a lot of stuff happening. There's a lot of stuff happening. 01:01:49.800 |
That's really turbulent. But there is a chance that a bunch of us can really 01:01:55.800 |
like, change things in a meaningful way. And I find it exciting. So I'm generally like, 01:02:07.000 |
I'm super bullish on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech. And I think I'm actually kind of like 01:02:13.800 |
reasonably optimistic about politics. I think that we're going to find our civility 01:02:19.720 |
soon. And I don't know why that's going to happen or how it's going to get triggered. 01:02:27.160 |
But I think honestly, like the election of Biden will go such a long way to just 01:02:34.840 |
showing what is rewarded and then to figure out how to reward 01:02:42.680 |
the folks that were supporting Trump in the first place for purposes of economic 01:02:50.200 |
Preston Pysh : Could be a nice de-escalation, 01:02:52.440 |
in fact, and maybe an olive branch if Biden can bring that Republican party into the conversation. 01:02:58.440 |
Jay Gould : Yeah. And Sachs had this really beautiful 01:03:00.920 |
thing that he posted on Twitter, which was like, a lot of San Francisco's dysfunction 01:03:06.840 |
is really going to spread wealth throughout the rest of the country, because a lot of cities that 01:03:12.040 |
were shut out of all these tech gains will now see it. And now you can imagine all kinds of people. 01:03:19.560 |
follow on Twitter. He lives in Bowie, Maryland. He's an engineer at VMware, 01:03:24.840 |
this black guy. And he was just talking about how he got promoted and he's now a principal engineer. 01:03:30.600 |
And I just thought like, this is really fucking cool. There's going to be all this redistribution 01:03:37.560 |
of opportunity all around the country. And that'll happen because of coronavirus, because 01:03:44.120 |
of people's frustration with California, because of a handful of us, how fed up we've gotten with 01:03:49.480 |
the culture of Silicon Valley, including by the way, what Brian Armstrong wrote, which again, 01:03:54.600 |
still very important. And so we'll all be better off for that. So I don't know, I'm pretty optimistic. 01:04:00.280 |
Preston Pysh : Sachs Tech Economy Politics 2021. 01:04:04.760 |
Jay Gould : Well, I'm super bullish about the entrepreneurial 01:04:11.240 |
energy in the American economy. It's 100 times greater than when we started out our careers in 01:04:18.120 |
this business 20 years ago. Jay Gould : Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. 01:04:19.400 |
Preston Pysh : And I think it's important to think about the 01:04:21.080 |
things that we've done in the last 10, 20 years ago in terms of the number of companies that get 01:04:25.720 |
funded, the ideas, the tools that are available, the funding. I mean, when you think about it, this 01:04:31.160 |
might be the first time in human history where money is chasing the, like throwing money at the 01:04:36.040 |
ideas. I mean, throughout history, until I'd say the last 10, 20 years ago, the people who had no 01:04:42.280 |
money but had great ideas always had to go hat in hand to go find the capital. And now it's completely 01:04:49.320 |
different. You can't find the people with ideas. Jay Gould : 01:04:52.440 |
It was worse than that, Sachs. They had to go give their ideas to a big company and take a salary. 01:04:57.400 |
Preston Pysh : Right. So Tesla, Nikola Tesla, 01:04:59.880 |
the original inventor, didn't profit at all from his ideas. And so that was pretty common. 01:05:04.920 |
And so just how entrepreneurial the US economy has become, I'm very… The new economy has completely 01:05:12.440 |
taken over and I'm bullish on that. I think the tweet that Chamath was referencing, I said that 01:05:19.240 |
San Francisco's loss is going to be America's gain, the rest of America's gain, because 01:05:23.720 |
middle America was really left out of the new economy. It's just not where it was taking place. 01:05:28.200 |
And so globalization really gutted industrial America, agricultural America. They didn't get 01:05:34.520 |
to participate in the enormous wealth creation of the last two or three decades. And I think, 01:05:38.840 |
I guess, because of what San Francisco has done in terms of driving out companies, 01:05:45.560 |
I think the companies are going to be… Tech companies are going to be all over the US now. 01:05:49.160 |
Preston Pysh : Yeah, totally. It's fucking awesome. 01:05:52.200 |
Jay Gould : Should be super interesting. And so 01:05:56.680 |
let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on Biden winning. Biden… 01:06:06.280 |
Jay Gould : Okay. David, you got a handicap for me on Biden winning? 01:06:16.680 |
David Morgan : Well, I mean, the betting line, 01:06:19.080 |
is like somewhere in the 60 to 70% range. And so you'd have to say that the betting markets 01:06:25.080 |
are probably pretty accurate. I guess, probably there's a 70% chance of him winning if I had to 01:06:31.320 |
bet on that line. I'd probably take the 30% underdog, because I think things are in so 01:06:37.880 |
much turmoil right now that anything could still happen. 01:06:39.880 |
Preston Pysh : So you think there's a chance that Trump could win? 01:06:42.040 |
David Morgan : Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. It's 01:06:45.240 |
slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving him credit for. 01:06:47.480 |
Jay Gould : Friedberg, what are your thoughts? 01:06:49.000 |
Preston Pysh : Probably right. Yeah, I don't have anything to add to that. 01:06:51.000 |
Jay Gould : All right. Any speculation that we want to end with, Chamath? 01:06:55.720 |
On the, I just noticed that Emil from Uber is doing a SPAC. Mark Pincus is doing a SPAC. 01:07:03.880 |
Everybody's doing SPACs now. Any speculation on what we're going to see in that market? 01:07:08.760 |
Chamath Nani : Nope. God bless them. And I love you all, besties. 01:07:15.640 |
Jay Gould : Back to the grind. We'll see you next time. You know what to do. 01:07:18.920 |
Share this podcast with your friends. If you'd like to advertise on the All In Podcast, you can't. 01:07:22.840 |
And so the best you can do is write a review or clip it and 01:07:28.040 |
we'll see you all next time on the All In Podcast. Bye-bye.