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E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more


Chapters

0:0 The besties reflect on Trump testing positive for COVID-19: treatment, impact on society & the election
9:6 What treatment is Trump receiving & is it scalable to everyone? Is this the future of disease mitigation?
16:55 What happens to the election if Trump is incapacitated & cannot run?
20:36 Debate reaction - who won, who misfired?
29:5 Live reaction to Trump being flown to Walter Reed hospital
30:43 Has the economy began to separate from political influence?
36:25 Reflection on the execution & reaction to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's letter
41:19 How Chamath would have reframed the letter, how Slack & company forums have platformed non-work discourse inside companies
49:30 Reflection on Jack Dorsey & Dick Costolo's reaction, what this means for Coinbase going forward
59:4 Predictions for 2021

Whisper Transcript | Transcript Only Page

00:00:00.000 | Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another all in podcast. We just got the show
00:00:05.240 | notes and I'm ripping them up because the president has the Rona. We knew this was a
00:00:11.080 | possibility. We had an incredible docket brewing. But as fate loves irony, we found out on Wednesday
00:00:19.080 | night, I believe just in a brief timeline here, Wednesday night, Hope Hicks, his personal
00:00:24.780 | assistant got the Rona. And then of course, President Trump announced late last night
00:00:31.920 | that he in fact had the Rona and that his wife Melania also had the coronavirus. So with us
00:00:39.680 | today to discuss all things tech, politics and coronavirus, David Friedberg, David Sachs and
00:00:45.240 | Bestie C, Chamath Palihapitiya are with us. I guess maybe we'll just drop it right to you,
00:00:51.600 | Friedberg. You are our
00:00:53.900 | science kid here in the class uh what is when we look at the president's um physique he's
00:01:04.540 | clinically obese technically i'm not saying that to be cruel but he's a 74 year old just
00:01:09.520 | clinically obese and snorts adderall we don't know that that's just a claim um but seriously
00:01:15.380 | what what is the prognosis here and then i my i understand he's now got a experimental treatment
00:01:21.860 | was just announced an hour ago uh the taping of this on friday afternoon and of course we wish
00:01:26.580 | them all the greatest speedy recovery etc but let's get let's get into the facts here i think
00:01:32.020 | the overall mortality rate for um someone of his age is in call it the two to four percent range
00:01:39.080 | right and for someone with with you know he's not known to have diabetes or high blood pressure but
00:01:44.440 | generally you kind of say there's some risk factors maybe associated um so a couple points
00:01:49.320 | but the reality is the treatment that he got was not as good as the treatment that he got
00:01:51.840 | is one that's not available to the public and is effectively like creating these uh you know
00:01:58.480 | taking these antibodies to the coronavirus and he got eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy
00:02:04.800 | um that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate the virus and they're not
00:02:10.340 | widely available they're not publicly available these treatments but uh you know based on the
00:02:16.820 | early trials and the general experience with using synthetic and you know polyclonal antibodies for
00:02:21.820 | uh infectious uh disease like this it's pretty effective and he should kind of uh you know
00:02:28.220 | recover pretty quickly i would imagine so so him him dying would basically be a two-outer him
00:02:33.540 | getting this special treatment makes it a one-outer if we were talking about this in poker terms
00:02:37.980 | uh chamath when you when you look at this turn of events and you saw the news what was your first
00:02:42.940 | thought um that it's now basically a hundred percent guaranteed that we will have
00:02:50.500 | all the data that we have and we're going to be able to get the data that we need to get the
00:02:51.800 | all of the most transparent data about coronavirus um soon so for example you know we we've been in
00:02:59.020 | this position where we've been debating hydroxychloroquine we've been debating these
00:03:03.720 | um you know all of these different uh regimens um and the reality is the president of the united
00:03:10.000 | states if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care um we're all in some ways fucked so it's
00:03:18.620 | it's probably likely that he's going to get the thing that folks know to watch and that's the
00:03:21.780 | work and then it'll be hard for everybody else to not want to ask for that and then it's going to be
00:03:27.860 | even harder for everybody to then not get some version of it and so i think probably we're going
00:03:34.600 | to de-escalate a little bit of mask stuff of testing stuff of you know what the right course
00:03:42.220 | of care is and you know frankly i'll be honest with you i hope you know i i wouldn't vote for
00:03:46.640 | him but i hope he's well um i don't want anything to happen to the guy um and i hope that we're
00:03:51.760 | going to get the thing that he wants to do and i hope that he recovers and it you know he kicks it
00:03:54.560 | in the ass and that um whatever he took to get better everybody else can get it too all right
00:04:01.060 | sax coming around the horn here talking about the political ramifications of this you were feeling
00:04:06.420 | that uh trump was likely to lose uh but here we are with the october surprise and i hate to make
00:04:13.040 | this uh handicapping of the election but this certainly is going to have some impact so with
00:04:19.520 | your rain man mind and when you go through this deck of cards here what is your brain how do you
00:04:26.480 | assess this as uh the rain man is this going to be a net positive for his election um results a
00:04:35.840 | negative neutral handicap this for us in your mind you must be thinking through this and i and again
00:04:41.280 | disclaimers we all want him to get better nobody wishes him out i'm sure some people do but
00:04:45.840 | no i'm just saying i'm seeing a lot of uh glee frankly
00:04:49.360 | on on twitter yeah a lot of people saying i told you so or karma's a bitch or something like that
00:04:55.780 | yeah um you know sort of implying that trump getting this was was a moral failing you know
00:05:02.220 | um and uh you know certainly a lot of people are kind of reveling in it um i think he was
00:05:08.400 | certainly careless i mean he didn't wear masks he said he didn't like to wear masks so well i mean
00:05:12.860 | do you wear a mask inside your house no but if i was in walking around at a
00:05:19.020 | a debate or something like that if i was on an airplane with 20 people yeah i would wear a mask
00:05:24.040 | i mean you know there were certainly a lot of precautions around the president i mean more than
00:05:28.920 | most people i mean any of us could get it from anybody yeah you know um if you know our wife
00:05:33.720 | happens to go out to meet a friend for lunch or something like that and then brings it back so
00:05:37.840 | there's almost no amount of carefulness you can do to completely avoid this
00:05:42.040 | unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself alone somewhere um so i just you know this idea
00:05:48.560 | that somehow getting covid is is a moral failing is is what i would take issue with it's not um
00:05:54.960 | it's not altogether unlike uh the crazy things that um the religious right was saying in the
00:06:01.200 | 1980s like you know about aids like when you know jerry falwell said it was god's punishment or
00:06:07.360 | something like that trying to imply that the gay plague i mean let's just call it what it is they
00:06:11.520 | basically said they they implied somehow that this was um you know some sort of uh just come up and
00:06:18.480 | you know or something like that retribution from god retribution exactly exactly and and you know
00:06:22.880 | the virus doesn't know who it's infecting obviously it doesn't target sinners or whatever
00:06:27.040 | and so i just think that um you know this all this this sort of uh gleeful um sort of blaming
00:06:34.640 | that's going around um is is inappropriate and i think it could really backfire if um if trump
00:06:41.360 | rapidly gets better i mean if trump is better in say a week um and is hitting the campaign trail
00:06:46.720 | again you know what what previously will have appeared to be a moral failing could it could
00:06:51.680 | now be argued would be a moral strength since he you know overcame it so easily and um
00:06:57.040 | you know so i think that if if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the campaign trail again it's
00:07:03.200 | going to make him look strong i think that if he has a hard time with the virus if it's enervating
00:07:08.080 | the way that i think it took out boris johnson i mean i've heard british commentators say that
00:07:13.120 | boris johnson's just not not even the same doesn't have the same level of
00:07:16.720 | energy even now than he did behind before the virus then i would think it could really hurt
00:07:21.680 | trump in the last you know this campaign look we i think we all know people um i'm sure you
00:07:28.480 | guys do i do who have gone through this and they all say the same thing which is this thing really
00:07:34.400 | sucks now there are all these people that say oh it's like dancing on tulips or daffodils
00:07:39.600 | i've never encountered a single person like that i see that um i see that maybe on twitter or a
00:07:45.920 | friend of a friend but all of my friends who've gotten it they have really struggled through it
00:07:51.120 | some of these people are older some of these people are younger some of these people are
00:07:54.960 | healthy some of these people are not and consistently they say the same thing which
00:07:58.640 | is that there's a couple of days where it literally feels like your chest is being
00:08:01.920 | uh pounded inside you you can't move you're just in pain and then afterwards the aftermath is you're
00:08:08.720 | at you know 50 60 70 of your lung capacity like it does for a couple of weeks i mean doc sands is
00:08:15.120 | a friend of ours and he was very public with his experience he tried to avoid it as best he could
00:08:19.680 | he got hit with it he got hit hard and he said he felt like he was going to die it was the worst
00:08:23.200 | thing he's ever experienced i i have friends that still complain two three four months after the
00:08:27.200 | fact that they're at 50 60 of cardiovascular capacity and you know these these people that
00:08:32.080 | i that i'm specifically thinking about were really healthy going into coronavirus and so i i don't
00:08:37.440 | know i just think it's something none of us want um i don't think you would want to wish this on
00:08:42.160 | anybody of course not yeah you know especially if you're a person who's been through this for a long time
00:08:44.320 | you know especially frankly the president of the united states has a role um and so i think folks
00:08:49.360 | just need to sort of like class up here um and hope that we figure out that he a gets the best
00:08:58.000 | care and then b we all know what it is and then c that we can get access to it too that's that's
00:09:04.960 | honestly i think that's all we should be wishing jamal do you see did you see the letter they
00:09:08.080 | published on what he's getting so they did the go ahead and read it go ahead and read it the doctor
00:09:13.120 | the doctor published it was not too long ago right jason i saw it on your it just happened like an
00:09:17.040 | hour ago i tweeted it yes so he got he got eight grams of polyclonal antibodies this is the
00:09:22.080 | regeneron formulation so basically they've isolated the antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that
00:09:27.600 | patients have presented in their body and then they use recombinant dna technology to produce
00:09:32.400 | those antibodies synthetically so it's a bunch of antibody proteins and then they turn it into an
00:09:37.440 | injection into a formula that they can put in your body and you now have effectively neutralizing
00:09:42.160 | antibodies so they gave him eight grams which is a pretty high dose and it gets it you know goes in
00:09:48.160 | intravenously you can have sometimes an allergic reaction to that but it seems like he was fine
00:09:52.720 | from that because they didn't announce an allergic reaction and then uh you know the the antibodies
00:09:57.920 | are now in his bloodstream and they bind to the virus so any virus that's floating around
00:10:01.280 | immediately gets wiped out it gets eliminated from the body so theoretically this is the way
00:10:05.280 | we should treat all infectious disease that's right and i do think that by the way i do and
00:10:09.520 | i've written about this i think that is the future of infectious disease i think that's the future of
00:10:11.280 | infectious disease is we're all going to get a polyclonal cocktail every year instead of getting
00:10:15.440 | a flu shot you get a bunch of antibodies to all the new stuff that's emerging and it wipes everything
00:10:19.840 | out about this david just think about this there was so much raging debate that got politicized
00:10:26.080 | between the left between the right between different folks of people who believed in
00:10:29.920 | different things around what the right course of care was there was no single source of truth i'll
00:10:35.280 | just say this again when you treat the president of the united states and he gets better that is
00:10:40.320 | canonical single source of truth i'm sorry but there can be no debate after that that the smartest
00:10:46.160 | people with the access to all of the research i mean let's be clear you don't think a call went
00:10:51.840 | out last night before they deployed the nuclear warhead stuff to all of the um r d labs and all
00:10:59.200 | the big pharma companies and said what do you got and the answer came back at the top of the ticket
00:11:04.320 | was this regeneron cocktail yeah they had they definitely had made that call before to prep for
00:11:08.720 | this but yeah right totally great yeah i think that's a really good point i think that's a really
00:11:09.440 | good point totally great now um when you say it highlights what the future of infectious disease
00:11:16.640 | treatment is and should be which is that all of us should be getting a booster shot every year
00:11:21.680 | of synthetically produced antibodies uh that will uh counteract any new infectious disease floating
00:11:28.800 | around in the world and we're getting to the point in the next 10 15 years that that should be
00:11:32.880 | reality for everyone well yeah it highlights that but it also highlights that in the absence of the
00:11:38.400 | most powerful management of the world we're going to be getting a booster shot every year and that's
00:11:38.560 | going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be a booster shot every year and that's
00:11:38.560 | going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be
00:11:38.560 | going to be a booster shot every year and that's going to be the most powerful man in the world
00:11:39.920 | the most powerful man in the world
00:11:39.920 | the most powerful man in the world getting the sickness that we're all going
00:11:42.160 | getting the sickness that we're all going
00:11:42.160 | getting the sickness that we're all going to basically and point fingers about
00:11:44.160 | to basically and point fingers about
00:11:44.160 | to basically and point fingers about what the right solution is and so it
00:11:45.680 | what the right solution is and so it
00:11:45.680 | what the right solution is and so it can't be the case that the next time
00:11:47.760 | can't be the case that the next time
00:11:47.760 | can't be the case that the next time there's a crazy illness that's floating
00:11:49.760 | there's a crazy illness that's floating
00:11:49.760 | there's a crazy illness that's floating around in society we need to go and
00:11:52.080 | around in society we need to go and
00:11:52.080 | around in society we need to go and target you know five or six of the
00:11:54.240 | target you know five or six of the
00:11:54.260 | target you know five or six of the leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus
00:11:56.720 | leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus
00:11:56.740 | leaders of the g8 plus the pope plus this plus that beyonce heaven forbid
00:11:59.200 | this plus that beyonce heaven forbid
00:11:59.220 | this plus that beyonce heaven forbid you know what i mean like this is crazy
00:12:01.360 | you know what i mean like this is crazy
00:12:01.380 | you know what i mean like this is crazy yeah this can't this can't be how we
00:12:03.040 | yeah this can't this can't be how we
00:12:03.060 | yeah this can't this can't be how we find single source of truth yeah well i
00:12:05.680 | find single source of truth yeah well i
00:12:05.700 | find single source of truth yeah well i think if i think politically speaking i
00:12:08.080 | think if i think politically speaking i
00:12:08.100 | think if i think politically speaking i think there's a lot of upside here for
00:12:09.600 | think there's a lot of upside here for
00:12:09.620 | Trump if he does get better in a week. I mean, if these polyclonal antibodies work,
00:12:13.860 | and he emerges from the White House, you know, fit as a fiddle in a week,
00:12:17.780 | he's going to say, the cure is here. You know, I was right. We don't even need a vaccine. The
00:12:21.600 | cure is here. It's over. And all the I told you so's might flip around.
00:12:26.840 | How far off would that be from the truth, David?
00:12:28.680 | Well, if the polyclonal antibodies work, I mean, then it's just a matter of scaling them.
00:12:34.180 | Can it be scaled, Freberg? Is this easily scalable?
00:12:37.100 | Yes. But by the by, I'll just point out the challenge with this is a lot of people
00:12:42.860 | north of 15% will have because antibodies, remember, they're a protein. And if your
00:12:49.760 | cells didn't make that protein, they look like a foreign protein when they show up in your body.
00:12:54.140 | And so very often, when you get a foreign antibody treatment like this,
00:12:58.640 | you will have some sort of allergic reaction because your body will react and attack that
00:13:02.840 | protein. And so it's not as simple as just saying, Hey, we should just scale
00:13:07.040 | this up. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of
00:13:07.040 | antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of
00:13:07.040 | antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.100 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.100 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.100 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.100 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.140 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.180 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:07.200 | of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot of antibodies. And then you're going to get a lot
00:13:27.180 | because there's just zero way. Oh, regenerants been running
00:13:30.120 | these trials since March 100%? Yeah, 100%. That's right. They
00:13:34.380 | what what the I can tell you for sure, when Trump got this
00:13:37.380 | treatment, I guarantee they gave him Benadryl, and they gave him
00:13:40.980 | a steroid shot and they probably gave him a little bit of
00:13:43.700 | cortisone or they had it on the side. Because that's kind of
00:13:46.000 | like the standard sort of regimen you would use when you
00:13:47.980 | get this sort of, you know, synthesized or, or convalescent
00:13:52.140 | plasma type treatment. And, you know, he comes out of this thing
00:13:55.200 | on the other end, and he's fine. But but but that treatment
00:13:59.460 | regimen is required. So it's, you know, you sit down in an ID
00:14:02.280 | booth, and you get a fucking IV and you get shots to go along
00:14:04.700 | with it. So it's not as simple as just chipping it out to
00:14:07.200 | everyone's home and giving them that treatment, you know,
00:14:09.420 | and only Am I correct that only 300 or so people have gotten
00:14:13.980 | this to date? Is that correct with the trial? I don't know the
00:14:17.000 | answer to that. I know that convalescent plasma, which is
00:14:19.680 | called the poor man's version of this treatment, which is
00:14:22.300 | instead of synthesizing the antibodies, you're taking the
00:14:25.020 | actual antibodies from other people that have had COVID and
00:14:27.840 | recovered, you're isolating those antibodies, and you're
00:14:30.240 | injecting them in other people's bodies. So that is what
00:14:33.020 | convalescent plasma is, it is effectively a soup of all the
00:14:36.640 | antibodies from recovered patients. Polyclonal antibodies
00:14:40.020 | is the synthesized version of those isolated antibodies where
00:14:43.140 | we use fermentation systems and bioengineered cells to make
00:14:46.860 | those antibodies, then we isolate them and we and we use
00:14:49.360 | there any chance that the president would make a bad
00:14:54.360 | decision here?
00:14:54.840 | Because he would get to dictate his treatment as a powerful
00:14:58.740 | person like Steve Jobs did, tragically, I saw a doctor
00:15:02.880 | saying this is one of the problems with powerful people is
00:15:04.680 | that they actually can, you know, make a bad decision
00:15:08.040 | because doctors will let them have too much of a say in is
00:15:11.080 | that possible in this situation? You think?
00:15:12.960 | I think the answer is no, because they didn't put out a
00:15:14.880 | letter saying he got bleach and UV light. So
00:15:17.820 | he didn't go with his own treatment protocol. And also,
00:15:23.340 | you got
00:15:24.660 | no, I was just gonna say and also, you know, it eliminated
00:15:27.720 | all of the other less nonsensical, but equally sort of
00:15:31.320 | question mark treatments. And so you know, I think they went
00:15:34.380 | right to the answer, which would only have been really possible
00:15:36.880 | if the best docs basically said, this is what we're doing. And I
00:15:40.680 | think David mentioned this earlier, that it had been
00:15:43.080 | decided well in advance.
00:15:44.700 | I think that's a good insight. Yeah,
00:15:46.720 | there's a there's a protocol that was written down months
00:15:49.160 | ago, vetted and revetted probably every week or every
00:15:52.420 | month as they get, as they got more data.
00:15:54.480 | And so the minute it happened, there was nothing to talk about.
00:15:57.300 | And I suspect that that is probably what happened because
00:16:00.240 | there is no way you'd want to be, you know, it's kind of like
00:16:02.880 | being a pilot, like, you follow a systematic set of rules to
00:16:07.680 | deal with the overwhelming majority of boundary conditions.
00:16:10.980 | And this seemed like a pretty obvious boundary condition, you
00:16:13.560 | would have wanted to have a protocol for well in advance.
00:16:16.500 | okay, so I want to just do one handicapping here, Sax, I'll
00:16:20.040 | have you take this one off the bat. Because this was the
00:16:22.320 | chatter on Twitter. Number one, you know, you're not going to
00:16:24.300 | be able to get this one. The first two, I think are just crazy
00:16:27.940 | conspiracy theories. He got it on purpose or he's lying, put
00:16:30.060 | those aside for a second, you can answer them if you want to.
00:16:31.980 | But the third one is, hey, what happens if he's incapacitated and
00:16:36.300 | cannot run? Or, God forbid, he died. And so if he's on a
00:16:42.360 | ventilator, if he cannot leave the hospital, he's in ICU.
00:16:45.860 | It's not even a question.
00:16:47.080 | It's not even a question, the 25th Amendment deals with that.
00:16:49.380 | Yeah. Yeah. So it goes to Pence. And if Pence cannot do it for
00:16:53.060 | whatever reason, but he's I think he's already...
00:16:54.120 | I was actually going to refer to the election, though. What
00:16:56.280 | happens to the election if in the next three, four weeks, he's
00:16:58.800 | in ICU? What happens then?
00:17:00.420 | Oh, that I don't know.
00:17:01.920 | Well, I would assume it's up to the party to make a change to
00:17:07.060 | his ballot if they wanted to. But I think if he's in the ICU,
00:17:09.600 | he stays on the ballot.
00:17:10.720 | So we would literally have an election with him on a
00:17:14.520 | ventilator or him. I mean, if he was unconscious, could he? Can
00:17:20.000 | people still go vote for him? I think this is a possibility.
00:17:22.840 | I think these are very low probabilities.
00:17:23.940 | I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the
00:17:28.440 | best care, it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him
00:17:35.580 | in about a week. And it redounds to his political advantage. I think
00:17:40.120 | there's probably a 40% chance that he's got more like a three or four
00:17:46.460 | week case, which I think would hurt him because he just wouldn't be
00:17:48.540 | able to campaign. And then there's maybe like a 5% or 10% chance of
00:17:52.500 | something more serious.
00:17:53.400 | Zach, I wonder if you could talk about the election.
00:17:53.760 | I wonder if he's got, even if he recovers in a week, the odds are pretty high that he'll have
00:17:58.860 | a long tail of fatigue, right? And so if he changes his strategy and just does things
00:18:06.660 | remotely and whatnot, doesn't do rallies anymore, and he doesn't really come out and say he's
00:18:13.320 | fatigued, but there's this behavioral change, does that change things, do you think?
00:18:16.800 | I think he needs to be able to campaign and hold these rallies. I think that's an essential part of
00:18:23.580 | election strategy, but also it's always been his way of going over the heads of the media that hates
00:18:29.400 | him and talking directly to people and rallying his base and field testing his ideas. There was
00:18:34.860 | that period during lockdowns when he just stopped doing rallies for several months and it really
00:18:39.600 | felt like he was adrift. So yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think that could easily swing
00:18:46.980 | the election a couple of points and cause him to lose.
00:18:48.900 | I think Saxxy Poo is 100% right.
00:18:51.180 | I was in Indiana last week,
00:18:53.400 | and there were a bunch of folks in the neighborhood where I was staying,
00:18:58.740 | and I was walking my dog and they were walking their dog, so we were all kind of walking side
00:19:03.480 | by side and they all were ramping up to go to a Trump rally. They were super excited about this
00:19:09.300 | moment to go hear what he has to say. They sounded like they were kind of in this undecided camp,
00:19:13.320 | but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what he had to say and kind of experience
00:19:16.860 | that Trump moment. It was a real kind of ground level, I think, proof point to that.
00:19:23.220 | Yeah, I think that's a good point for your statement around people really need to feel,
00:19:26.580 | and because that's a big part of his kind of MO is that ground level experience.
00:19:30.960 | It is, and I think it was one of the reasons why no one saw his election coming in 2016,
00:19:36.600 | is if you turned on the TV and just listened to the commentators, I mean, aside from maybe Fox,
00:19:43.080 | it seemed like everyone just hated him. But if you attended the rallies, you would see that he
00:19:48.540 | was reaching a lot of people, tens of thousands of people at each event, and he was flying around
00:19:53.040 | three events a day, tremendously energetic. So yeah, I think it would hurt him a lot.
00:19:58.920 | But look, if he's back on the stump a week from now, you're probably going to see all sorts of
00:20:03.660 | people on the right saying, "I told you so," and "God healed him," and "He must be the chosen one,"
00:20:10.260 | or who knows? We could be seeing a Weekend at Bernie's moment here.
00:20:14.580 | Even if he's just tired, they'll prop him up on a big stick and hold him up in front
00:20:22.860 | of the crowds and then put him back in the airplane and fly him back home.
00:20:25.440 | I think we'll know if he's too tired, because he gets up there and he talks for like an hour and a
00:20:29.940 | half. An hour and a half? He's done two or three. An hour and a half is short for him.
00:20:34.200 | Yeah. Is it possible we could be talking about Trump having less energy than Biden in a debate,
00:20:42.180 | which I think is a good segue here? Are there going to be two more presidential debates? And
00:20:46.320 | what was our take on the absolutely embarrassing shit show that we saw on Tuesday night, which was,
00:20:52.680 | I think, supposed to be the topic today that we're going to lead off, which was the debate,
00:20:55.740 | which seems unimportant now. It feels like a year ago.
00:20:58.860 | I know. How do you expect us to comment on something that happened so long ago?
00:21:02.280 | It was 72 hours ago. I mean, come on, people.
00:21:06.120 | Oh my God. It feels like years.
00:21:09.120 | 2020 is so exhausting. I think I've aged 30 years in one year. It's like three decades.
00:21:15.060 | That debate was just a dumpster fire. The way that I thought about it was-
00:21:20.700 | Wrong. Wrong.
00:21:22.500 | Not true. I mean, imagine-
00:21:24.660 | No, no, I agree. It was a disaster for Trump. It was a disaster for Trump.
00:21:28.680 | Go ahead, Sax. Explain, because he's your boy. Are you now not going to vote for him after that
00:21:33.780 | performance?
00:21:34.320 | Just to clarify for the audience, I'm not pro-Trump. I'm just anti-
00:21:39.660 | Just voting for him.
00:21:40.620 | I'm anti-hysteria. I always support the side that seems least hysterical to me at any given time.
00:21:46.560 | Did you vote for Trump last election? Yes or no? Or would you be comfortable even saying that?
00:21:50.880 | I think you'd be surprised if I told
00:21:52.320 | you who I voted for.
00:21:53.040 | Really?
00:21:53.460 | But okay, so onto the debate. I think both Biden and Trump both had a trap to avoid. I think Biden's
00:22:01.440 | trap was appearing senile. I think Trump's trap was appearing unhinged. I would say that Biden
00:22:06.900 | avoided his trap, and Trump did not. By constantly attacking Biden, interrupting him, it was
00:22:13.980 | counterproductive. I mean, what you want to do with Biden was let the man talk. He's a gaffe machine.
00:22:18.540 | You know, let him talk, let him say things that will get him in trouble. Instead,
00:22:22.140 | by constantly interrupting him, Trump kind of let him off the hook.
00:22:25.560 | Now look, I mean, both of their bases, it's like a sporting event. They're just going to
00:22:32.760 | root for the side they already came to support. But I don't think Trump helped himself with the
00:22:38.580 | few percent of independents who are still out there looking to make a decision.
00:22:42.180 | I think you're totally right. It was really surprising because if he had
00:22:46.980 | just left him to his own devices, you would have let it play out. But I thought Biden, to be honest,
00:22:51.960 | for some moments, he was fabulous. So I thought he was excellent on race. I thought he was
00:22:57.840 | incredible in the moment that he basically stood up to Trump about his son, Hunter, and he looks
00:23:03.480 | in the camera and he basically says, "Look, I love my son. My son's had troubles and I support." I
00:23:09.000 | mean, amazing. And so in those moments, it's so hard to not see that guy as presidential.
00:23:16.380 | It's easy for Democrats or people that are voting for him like me, but I think if you
00:23:21.780 | were a Republican, you got to look at that guy and say, "Man, that is a decent dude."
00:23:24.900 | Yeah. I think Biden helped himself a lot. He helped himself a lot.
00:23:28.860 | He did in certain key moments, he did fabulously well. And in other moments where
00:23:33.360 | there were traps, he actually got built up because Trump kept interrupting. And Joe was
00:23:37.320 | smart enough to stop talking so that it amplified the sense that Trump was interrupting him.
00:23:41.880 | Trump to me seemed pathetic and scared. He's scared of losing. He felt like a bully who had
00:23:49.080 | been laughed at by the whole class. Nobody takes him seriously.
00:23:51.600 | The moderator, what's his name?
00:23:54.900 | Chris Wallace.
00:23:55.860 | Chris Wallace. The moderator was kind of like, "What are you doing, sir? Please." I think Chris
00:24:01.140 | Wallace, I mean, I know people were critical of him, but Chris Wallace is like, "Sir, please."
00:24:05.280 | Just trying to appeal to basic decency and Trump just not getting it made Trump look so bad. It's
00:24:12.300 | just, I think, confirmed with people say the demographic he has to win is white women in
00:24:16.980 | a lot of these swing states. I mean, I don't think women want to vote. I'm not going to speak for a
00:24:21.420 | lot of women here, but my understanding is women don't like guys like that who interrupt constantly
00:24:25.680 | and who are belligerent and badgering. And they kind of like a great dad who defended, to your
00:24:31.320 | point, Chamath, his son and said, "Hey, listen, my son's got problems. My other son died. He's
00:24:36.000 | a war hero."
00:24:36.420 | I really think, and we talked about this a little bit before, but the surface area in
00:24:43.800 | terms of policy between the Republicans and the Democrats now are virtually non-existent. So look,
00:24:50.700 | if you unpack
00:24:51.240 | foreign policy, they both hate Russia, they both hate China, they both need India,
00:24:58.140 | and the Middle East is irrelevant because we're moving to a carbon neutral alternative energy
00:25:03.180 | world. They also don't need Russia as an example. So all of this stuff that used to matter before,
00:25:09.360 | in so much of the foreign policy that dictate how Americans would fight wars, spend money,
00:25:13.980 | incite democracy, protect certain leaders, it's all out the window. And they both think about it
00:25:20.340 | the same way,
00:25:21.060 | because the surface area is so similar. That's number one.
00:25:25.380 | What about the economy? Because it does seem that they're pretty similar too.
00:25:28.320 | So number two, economically, they're so similar because they both want to spend trillions of
00:25:33.360 | dollars just under a different label. One is sort of under a Green New Deal and the other is called
00:25:37.980 | an infrastructure bill or whatever it is. And then number three, they will both have the same Federal
00:25:42.960 | Reserve that is tied to the hip of Treasury who is already committed to be trillions of dollars a
00:25:48.600 | year in hock, backing up all the debt. And that's what we're talking about. And that's why we're
00:25:50.880 | talking about the debt that basically exists. And so if you put all these things together,
00:25:54.180 | it's a popularity contest. And this is why I think Joe Biden has an advantage because in a popularity
00:25:59.460 | contest where you're just picking the figure that you would either have a beer with or feel the most
00:26:04.500 | comfortable with, there's an element of this which is like, it's just a decent human being.
00:26:08.460 | It's easier for Biden to get that across than it is for Trump. And when Trump behaves that way,
00:26:13.740 | it just violates some simple rules of decency. In the debate against Hillary Clinton,
00:26:20.700 | he didn't act this way. And he was more, it was like watching a show. You were kind of tuning in
00:26:29.400 | to see what the theatrics would be. Or in the debates in the primaries in 2016 against the
00:26:35.520 | Republicans, it was theatrical. Here, it was just kind of not, it was pretty sacks.
00:26:42.780 | In that way, sacks, you think the Democrats put up the right candidate? Because if you did put
00:26:46.980 | up Elizabeth Warren, if you did put up a Bernie Sanders, or God forbid, both of them at the
00:26:50.520 | same time, it would be a very stark contrast. You would have the socialist ticket that wants
00:26:55.740 | to ban the billionaires and stop capitalism and kneecap it and spend a bunch of money
00:27:02.280 | on redistribution of wealth. And here, Biden doesn't, he's never said redistribution of wealth.
00:27:07.980 | He's never said ban the billionaires. He's pro-capitalism. Feels like a safer bet to
00:27:12.360 | the majority of Americans. Did the Democrats actually do a good job putting Biden up there?
00:27:16.680 | I think so. I think he is the most,
00:27:20.340 | now that we know he's not senile. I mean, I think there was some real question about that going into
00:27:24.060 | the debate. I think he proved in that debate that he's not. And he's always kind of had the decency
00:27:28.620 | card that Jamal talks about. Now that we know he's not senile, I think he is the Democrats'
00:27:35.460 | most electable candidate because he is more centrist than certainly an Elizabeth Warren or
00:27:41.820 | some of the other candidates that you mentioned. Elizabeth Warren would have moved the election
00:27:47.160 | to be about substance. And if this— Yeah.
00:27:50.160 | In many ways, strategically, no, but think about this. If you basically converge on roughly the
00:27:55.680 | same strategy with different labels, you make the election one of style. And there are a lot
00:28:02.040 | of people who really want decency back in the presidency more so than they want anything else,
00:28:08.340 | because they already come into the election with a level of skepticism that policy, A, won't change
00:28:14.400 | that fast, and B, to the extent it changes, doesn't affect them. And so for years, we've been electing
00:28:19.980 | people we like. And this is probably the most extreme test of that idea.
00:28:24.840 | I think there was like— I mean, if you think about that debate, you could probably
00:28:28.560 | simplify it down into the audience being part of three camps. They either know who they're voting
00:28:32.880 | for, Trump, they know who they're voting for, Biden, and then some folks who are kind of maybe
00:28:37.260 | they're changeable. And for the folks that are changeable, there's a diversity of objectives.
00:28:43.140 | Right? There are some folks who care about the decency, some folks who care about policy. But
00:28:46.920 | at the end of the day, I think
00:28:49.800 | you go into this debate with an expectation of Trump and an expectation of Biden. And I would
00:28:55.440 | say that Trump was flat to down relative to expectation, and Biden was flat to up. And so
00:29:01.740 | that's where I would kind of give the ticker to Biden.
00:29:05.340 | And sorry, I don't want to interrupt, but I just want to read you this headline,
00:29:09.180 | "President Trump will be admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on Friday for a few days."
00:29:15.060 | Yeah, I read that.
00:29:16.260 | Well, hold on a second. That is groundbreaking.
00:29:19.620 | Well, his doctor said it's because they're out of an abundance of caution. They just want to
00:29:23.520 | have him in a place where he can be treated if and as he needs it. That may be a cover story.
00:29:28.680 | You buy that?
00:29:29.220 | I don't buy that. I think he's in trouble.
00:29:31.200 | I agree with Jason. It is very strange.
00:29:34.080 | When you get a treatment like he got today, you know, eight grams of immunoglobulin therapy like
00:29:41.640 | that. It sucks. I've had this treatment. I've had immunoglobulin therapy before. And you get
00:29:48.780 | knocked out. You're on all these steroids. You're on all this anti-allergy stuff. You're a mess for
00:29:55.080 | a day or two. And you know, you want to get like IVs and stuff. They give you all sorts of stuff
00:29:59.640 | to go with it. I got to imagine that after getting that therapy, he's going to need to be in some
00:30:04.800 | degree of care. And I would imagine it's probably better to just do that around doctors and with
00:30:08.340 | all the equipment than try and, you know, kind of bring everything into the white house.
00:30:11.460 | So, I don't read it as negatively, but…
00:30:14.160 | Well, I mean, do you think it could be like an anaphylactic shock?
00:30:19.560 | It might be. He might be having some reaction. Yeah, totally.
00:30:22.560 | Like I said, a large percentage of people that get these antibody therapies have some sort of
00:30:28.800 | allergic response. It's all the way from anaphylactic to, hey, I'm having my throat's
00:30:33.120 | closing. Hey, I feel I'm getting flushed. I'm getting a fever. There's all sorts of ways that
00:30:37.140 | this can kind of present. So…
00:30:38.160 | The world is changing so fast that we can't even complete
00:30:41.280 | a podcast without it being obsolete.
00:30:43.140 | Can I tell you one other thing? What did you guys think about the fact,
00:30:46.680 | this is a little morbid, so you can, we can choose not to talk about it, but
00:30:49.680 | the stock market basically did nothing today on the news that the most important person in
00:30:56.640 | the free world, theoretically… I think you just answered your own
00:31:01.200 | question, Chamath. I can chime in on this one. I don't think that people perceive that Trump is
00:31:06.120 | good or bad for the economy either way, and that the economy is separated now from politics,
00:31:11.100 | because they think Biden or Trump are going to have the same policies, which you said before.
00:31:14.400 | They have the same policies, so why does it matter? If Trump were to tragically die,
00:31:18.660 | it would not make a difference in the American economy. It's not going to affect people buying
00:31:22.560 | iPhones. It might shake people psychologically, but I don't think in a massive way, because he's
00:31:26.940 | almost out of office. So I think it's all baked in. That's why the market did do anything. What
00:31:30.660 | do you think, Sax? I wanted to disagree slightly with the idea this election doesn't matter.
00:31:34.320 | I think it will matter a lot if the Democrats win the Senate, as well as the president,
00:31:40.920 | because then they will have one-party control, and they can pass as much legislation as they want.
00:31:45.240 | And I think a lot of things will get signed, and I think the Biden presidency could be very
00:31:51.360 | consequential, at least for two years, while all this legislation is passed, even if he's not out
00:31:57.780 | in front saying very much. I mean, the significance will be in the pen to sign the legislation. If the
00:32:05.640 | Republicans hold on to the Senate, but Biden wins the presidency, I agree with you that it's not going
00:32:10.740 | to be a tremendously consequential election, because we'll have gridlock and divided government
00:32:14.880 | again. And so I think a lot hinges on whether Biden wins with or without the Senate.
00:32:21.300 | I don't disagree with you. The only thing that I will say is that I think that
00:32:25.260 | Biden will drag the country, especially if it's an up and down Democratic ticket,
00:32:32.940 | back to the '80s and '90s, more to the sort of the George Baker school of diplomacy and governance.
00:32:40.560 | And I think that if, and I don't know him to know this, but I think that if he really were
00:32:45.720 | to have a legacy, I would suspect that part of, again, because he's mentioned that, why did he run?
00:32:53.520 | He said the pivotal moment was like Charlottesville and Trump's reaction to Charlottesville. I think
00:32:58.140 | Biden is really moored by this concept of decency. And I think that if he were there and he thought
00:33:04.020 | to himself, I'm going to be here for four years because that's the right responsible thing to do,
00:33:07.500 | but no more, I don't think that you're going to see a bunch of crazy legislation pass. I think
00:33:13.080 | Biden's going to say, guys, this is what I expect to do. By the way, did you, and I think I would
00:33:18.360 | bet on that because of what he said at the beginning of the debate. He's like, I am the
00:33:23.040 | Democratic party. I don't know if you guys remember that. I do remember that.
00:33:27.120 | That was incredible. That was so powerful. That was a very Darth Sidious emperor move
00:33:32.700 | when he said, I am the Republic. No, no, no. I think he was trying to basically say like firewall
00:33:37.320 | the far left or the far left, the socialist left and say that rhetoric is not what I was elected
00:33:44.340 | on. I was elected on my platform. I am the party. This is what I believe and everybody
00:33:50.340 | else will have to toe the line. And by the way, in the end, that's not such a bad thing.
00:33:54.660 | Yeah. It's a man.
00:33:57.000 | I agree. I think that that was a really important moment for him is for him to say, look, I'm in
00:34:01.920 | charge here because the Republicans have been making the argument that he's a Trojan horse for
00:34:06.060 | all these, like,
00:34:07.140 | far left elements.
00:34:09.000 | AOC. And so it was very important for him to come forward and say, no, I'm the one leading
00:34:13.980 | this ticket. Now, that being said, and I think it would be a great thing for the country if Biden
00:34:19.740 | brought the Democratic party back to more of a, you know, Bill Clinton to, you know, Obama type
00:34:25.740 | centrism or, you know, center leftism, I guess you could say, as opposed to this sort of like crazy,
00:34:31.800 | you know, woke Marxism or Maoism, whatever you want to call it.
00:34:36.960 | But I'm, I'm very skeptical that he will, because I think Biden has always positioned himself
00:34:41.940 | throughout his career as being at the center of the Democratic party. And I think he moves as the
00:34:47.580 | Democratic party moves. I agree. He's not going to be all the way to the left of the Democratic party,
00:34:51.240 | but those left elements will drag his sort of center to further to the left and we'll end up
00:34:57.780 | with sort of a, a compromise. And I think at the end of the day, if the Democrats win Congress,
00:35:02.820 | he'll sign whatever they, they pass.
00:35:04.500 | Hmm. I'm, I'm not so sure.
00:35:06.780 | I really, I really, I'm not so sure.
00:35:09.960 | The, the White House is, uh, not that far away. It looks like it's a 30 minute drive
00:35:17.760 | from Walter Reed sending a helicopter. Is that normal? Because he drove there last time.
00:35:25.920 | Would that be indicative of this as an emergency type situation,
00:35:29.820 | sending Marine one as opposed to just driving there for 20 minutes?
00:35:32.880 | I think they get, look, they'd be, there'd be a lot of liability if he had an actual medical
00:35:36.600 | emergency and they were just like, yeah, we're going to send him for a few days out of an
00:35:39.960 | abundance of caution. The fact that they said out of an abundance of caution, I think if there is
00:35:45.060 | an emergency, you, you can't get away with saying that. Oh, you can for sure. They would lie.
00:35:50.100 | I don't know. It'll come out later. Trump administration was above lying about situation.
00:35:55.560 | If he's unconscious, they got to swear Penson. Yeah. There's a lot of reasons why you got to
00:36:00.060 | be careful. I'm not saying he's unconscious. I'm just saying it's not even unconscious. Like, I'm just thinking,
00:36:06.420 | I'll add here is sending a helicopter for a 20 minute ride than a motorcade.
00:36:09.840 | Like seems a little, I mean, I would take a, I would take a helicopter to the 7 11. If I had a
00:36:15.240 | helicopter, you're taking a helicopter down to the poker game. Okay. Uh, let's,
00:36:25.560 | this is, I think a good jumping off point to an interesting discussion that blew up on Twitter
00:36:30.840 | earlier this week, which is we can't keep up with all the politics, the, the rhetoric,
00:36:36.240 | the vitriol and this polarization. So, uh, Coinbase co-founder and CEO, Brian Armstrong wrote a letter
00:36:43.380 | saying, Hey, listen, if you, uh, want to talk about politics, that's fine. Not at my company
00:36:50.040 | anymore. We're going to have a no politics rule, no debating the stuff. And we're going to be
00:36:54.480 | ultra ultra focus focused. I'm sorry at work. Um, and you can check your politics at the door.
00:37:01.380 | When you read this SAC, you've come out in support of Brian Armstrong. Uh, what was
00:37:06.060 | your take on his position about leave your politics at the door when you get to work?
00:37:11.940 | Right. Well, I think, I think what Brian, so I, I did, I did compliment it,
00:37:16.380 | um, his, his manifesto. And I, I think, uh, are you an investor? I, I am, I'm a small investor
00:37:22.020 | in Coinbase. Um, and, uh, and, and I'm friendly with, with Brian. And so I, I certainly, you know,
00:37:29.640 | like the idea of, of defending him against unfair attacks, but, um, I also genuinely like the
00:37:35.400 | manifesto. Um, and I think, you know, his argument kind of boils down to, to three components. I
00:37:40.260 | think number one, that having these debates on every issue, whatever the issue du jour is pulls
00:37:47.340 | the company's focus away from its core mission, which he really emphasized. And, um, you know,
00:37:52.560 | that mission mission is challenging enough in its own right. Um, second, he was saying that,
00:37:57.780 | and this is something I've said before as well, which is just that politics is just
00:38:02.220 | increasingly divisive in our society. It's just inherently divisive.
00:38:05.220 | And therefore it's, it's, uh, corrosive to team cohesion. And the more you have of that in your
00:38:10.440 | company, the worse it is for, you know, the team. And I think the third thing he, he, he mentioned,
00:38:16.440 | which I thought was really interesting is that the freewheeling debate of, or discussion of politics,
00:38:22.020 | you know, like, like that we're having here, but we kind of have our own little safe zone here. It
00:38:27.060 | risks, uh, hurt feelings or misunderstandings that can become HR issues because people can then
00:38:33.300 | complain about it. They feel unsafe.
00:38:35.040 | They feel unsafe and they report to. And so that's a further distraction.
00:38:38.940 | I felt unsafe at moments in this podcast. I'll be honest. There was a couple of moments.
00:38:42.000 | Well, I think, well, I think one of the reasons why this pod sort of works is because we're all,
00:38:45.900 | we're all friends and, uh, we've created a safe space for us to have these conversations,
00:38:50.460 | but the workplace is very different. It's not, you know, and, and, and what I read
00:38:54.300 | Brian trying to do is to reimpose a true safe space by saying, leave your politics at the door.
00:39:00.660 | Now, I think he's been deliberately misconstrued.
00:39:04.380 | Yeah.
00:39:04.860 | By, by critics who want to say that, well, you have to leave your conscience at the door. You
00:39:10.080 | know, that's not true. He's not saying that you can't have your own political views or contribute
00:39:15.660 | to causes that you like, but you just do gotta do it on your own time. Kind of like Mr. Hand
00:39:20.940 | said in fast times at Ridgemont high, you know, like do that on your own time. Um, and I, and,
00:39:26.400 | and that makes sense to me.
00:39:27.480 | I think like, I mean, look, I think about this from the point of view of one of the employees working
00:39:34.680 | at one of these companies that doesn't want to be a party to the debate. Um, if I'm an engineer at
00:39:40.560 | Google or Coinbase, I go into work and I am captive, right? I don't have the option of not
00:39:46.620 | showing up to work. If I go to a rally, I have the option of saying, I'm going to go to this rally
00:39:51.600 | and walk away. Cause I don't like the speaker or I'm going to go to the rally. Cause I want
00:39:55.500 | to participate in this dialogue or this debate. I can't do that at work.
00:39:58.980 | So it's unfair for work, which is a place that I, as an employee have to go to every day.
00:40:04.500 | To be a forum for people to express themselves on political points that I may or may not agree
00:40:10.620 | with, but more importantly, may or may not want to actually be a party to the discussion around.
00:40:15.360 | Um, and I think that's the most important thing to note here is like, it's not about enabling the
00:40:20.580 | free speech of the employees that want to debate. It's about the protecting the workspace for the
00:40:25.680 | employees that don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed to that. Um, and that's really
00:40:29.940 | important.
00:40:30.180 | As a Chamath, as a person of color who, um, you know,
00:40:34.320 | have, I'm sure some sh has some shrunk feelings about what we've seen in terms of police shootings
00:40:39.960 | or maybe in your own personal life experience facing racism, uh, again, as a person of color,
00:40:45.240 | what are your thoughts on the workplace? Is it, is it possible for you to leave that at the door?
00:40:51.900 | That was the criticism. I think I saw from the, you know, people who were supportive of BLM and
00:40:58.140 | they said the background here was they were trying to get Brian to explicitly say black
00:41:04.140 | lives matter and to, you know, have the company rally behind that. Um, and that he didn't, he,
00:41:11.340 | he didn't want to have that be part of the work environment and that he was offering people four
00:41:15.420 | to six months severance if they would leave, if they don't like the new rules. So what are your
00:41:18.720 | thoughts?
00:41:18.840 | I think that this whole thing became a quagmire unnecessarily. I think that he showed,
00:41:26.460 | um, a lot of naivety, um, and frankly, like, um, you know,
00:41:33.960 | a little bit of stupidity really. Um, it was really poorly written. Um, and that's why it's
00:41:40.080 | been so misunderstood and misconstrued in my opinion. I think a lot of what he had to say
00:41:45.240 | was valid, but when it was so poorly presented and you know, the, the essay was like eight minutes
00:41:51.300 | and it was rambling and the mission was like, you know, 97% down on the, you know, in the,
00:41:56.040 | it's just like, it was a convoluted fucking mess.
00:41:58.080 | So if I had to do it again, if I were him or if I was his advisor and he had asked me, you know, to
00:42:03.780 | proofread the essay, what I would have said is more of the following, which is our mission,
00:42:09.360 | which is, you know, I think to create financial Liberty or something, something like that,
00:42:13.740 | you guys can find out what it is for the whole world is unbelievably important. We will talk
00:42:20.220 | about every issue through the lens of achieving our mission. And we will be disciplined about
00:42:25.980 | saying which things matter and which things don't. So for example, if somebody says, listen,
00:42:30.960 | I really believe in spaying and neutering dogs,
00:42:33.600 | the right answer shouldn't be, Hey, shut the fuck up. It says, okay.
00:42:37.860 | How does that allow us to maximize our users? How does that allow us to achieve our mission? Why does
00:42:46.440 | it allow us to achieve our mission? And if you ask the question, why four or five times in a
00:42:52.680 | very first principles way, you'll get to the answer. So I would have rather said, we are
00:42:56.580 | going to train people how to understand what builds up to our mission and what is otherwise
00:43:03.420 | something that you should leave at home. And in that context, there are a lot of things actually
00:43:09.240 | that are political that need to be brought, especially into a company like Coinbase,
00:43:13.680 | which is working in crypto, which is all about eliminating the financial barriers of people that
00:43:19.620 | don't have access to it. Like you are trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary part of the
00:43:26.160 | economy. And so there are potentially many movements that matter. And those movements in
00:43:33.240 | countries in which you will want to gain users may look like political movements.
00:43:38.100 | Well, and that was Jack Dorsey's point. He came out.
00:43:41.580 | Yeah. So I just think it was kind of a too superficial. It was very Silicon Valley-esque
00:43:47.520 | reaction. It was emotional. It was a little insecure. And to me, it missed the mark because
00:43:54.660 | there was a lot of validity in what he was saying, but presented in a lens of Silicon Valley bullshit.
00:44:03.060 | And it was not well thought through. So if he had rewritten it and he had said 99% of what he said,
00:44:10.740 | but through the lens of why we're going to think about a first principles way of defining how
00:44:17.700 | everything ladders into the mission, he will train his employees. Instead, what he created
00:44:22.620 | was a schism and a decision point. And I'm not sure that that's how you maximize value in 2020
00:44:27.600 | as a CEO, because at the end of the day, you have to deal with an entire population cohort that
00:44:32.880 | is that are in their twenties, early thirties, teenagers that will eventually want to work for
00:44:37.860 | you. And whether we like it or not, they're different. And one of the things you need to
00:44:42.180 | do if you're going to run an enormous company is understand the psychology of your employees,
00:44:46.500 | understand the psychology of how movements and decisions are organized, and then play to win.
00:44:53.100 | And it's no different than anybody else. If you want to be in the job, to be the starting point
00:44:58.560 | guard for the warriors, you got to know how to fucking pass the ball. And if you're going to
00:45:02.700 | be the power forward, you have to know how to do a certain set of things that are different than that.
00:45:06.420 | And so I would sort of have framed it there because I think there was a lot of goodness
00:45:11.220 | in what he said, but presented in a pretty shitty manner. I think it's good. He brought up the topic.
00:45:15.660 | I do think there's a tactical issue here and he, he could have laid out the ground rules for,
00:45:20.760 | I think to your point, Chamath of how we should talk about, uh, politics at work and what are
00:45:26.520 | the ground rules. I think the number one issue here, which people don't talk about is that slack
00:45:32.520 | and email and forums inside of companies have created a massive distraction. And when somebody
00:45:39.900 | goes into the random channel, which is built into slack, and I know this is in the weeds,
00:45:43.500 | but I have seen this happen at multiple companies. Now, slack infects a company. Somebody creates a
00:45:49.560 | room about a topic, whether it's Trump or police violence or immigration, whatever it is. And then
00:45:56.820 | people want to sound off on that. And now you've got an electronic form where people are talking,
00:46:02.340 | talking about highly charged issues that makes people feel unsafe. And so what I told my companies
00:46:06.540 | was, um, the two companies I run, you could talk about politics. If you want to go for a walk with
00:46:11.460 | somebody and have coffee or lunch, and you want to have a two hour discussion about it, go for it.
00:46:15.660 | Please do not put this in electronic form because it's a massive distraction. Uh, and there'll be a
00:46:21.120 | record that could create downstream human resources issues to your report sex. I have a suggestion,
00:46:26.160 | and this is an organizational design experiment, and maybe somebody listening will implement it.
00:46:31.020 | Their company.
00:46:31.440 | Okay.
00:46:32.020 | Allow 100% free form debate about anything. One condition. You literally need to have a soapbox
00:46:39.280 | and like in the 1880s Hyde park in London. Yep. You put the soapbox someplace in a safe space
00:46:45.940 | where you can go and you can talk and people who want to listen will listen and people who need to
00:46:50.560 | work can work and people who don't want to listen, don't have to be forced to listen.
00:46:54.400 | What's the digital version of that, that you're suggesting?
00:46:58.480 | No, not saying a literal room in the campus.
00:47:00.400 | No, a literal place in your office.
00:47:01.840 | You put the soap, you have a soapbox, you grab it, you put it down the ground,
00:47:05.740 | you stand on it and you say it. And if you're not willing to do that, then, you know, it's okay.
00:47:11.440 | Are you saying that there's no digital version of that?
00:47:13.900 | Because people could, what I'm saying is that two things. One is the digital version is actually
00:47:20.020 | training people to ask why, why does it matter? Now, the reason why it's important to ask that
00:47:25.960 | is because somebody may say, I'll use Jason's example that he loves. We need to support the
00:47:31.660 | Uyghurs in China. The best way to do that is to proliferate our software in the following way,
00:47:37.300 | because it will free them from enslavement of the Chinese and it'll give them access to financial
00:47:42.160 | independence. Wow. I mean, okay, that seems to be paying off the mission. So if you would, if so,
00:47:49.360 | you got to give freedom for people to come up with these ideas, because it may the first version of
00:47:55.360 | this idea may, may not actually be what the final version is. And the final version may be the killer
00:48:00.460 | feature. So I, on the digital forum in the slacks, it should be why respect. It's a very respectful
00:48:07.540 | question. It shouldn't, it should not be in any digital forum because it leads to chaos because
00:48:11.980 | we see that on Twitter and what's happening is the Twitter derangement that we all suffer from
00:48:15.880 | is now infected inside the communication system that runs the operating system of the company.
00:48:21.400 | Go ahead. Yeah, that's exactly right. Yes, I do. I do agree with Jake on this one. So,
00:48:26.740 | so look, I mean, Chamath is right that I'm sure I'm sure Chamath would have written a
00:48:30.280 | better letter, but I think we understand the gist of what Brian was trying to say. And actually,
00:48:34.780 | I thought it took a lot of courage to, to write it. And what he's basically saying is that politics
00:48:39.460 | has become so divisive in our society that the, I mean, it'd be nice if we could have these reasonable
00:48:45.580 | debates the way that we're having this discussion inside companies, we didn't have to have these
00:48:50.080 | artificial restrictions, but we do, we have to, you know, it's the same reason, you know, that we
00:48:55.720 | have the separation of church and state is because people couldn't stop killing each other over
00:48:59.140 | religious wars. And so finally we had, you know, the treaty of Westphalia to stop it. And what
00:49:03.700 | Brian's basically proposing is a, is a treaty for the workplace because we cannot get along around
00:49:09.040 | politics. But David, he is the CEO of an $8 billion company. Could he not have hired somebody to edit
00:49:14.980 | that essay? Okay. Well, I mean, look, I, I just, to me, like if it's meaning, if it's seriously well
00:49:21.100 | thought through and it, and if it was as important as Westphalia, you would probably have a couple
00:49:26.500 | of proofreaders corporate version. Okay. It's not, it's not historically polished for sure. Here is
00:49:32.200 | Jack Dorsey's response. I don't have you guys respond to it. I think it's in your wheelhouse
00:49:35.980 | in terms of what you said, Chamath Bitcoin, AKA crypto is direct activism against an unverifiable
00:49:42.460 | and exclusionary financial system, which definitely affects so much of our society important to at
00:49:47.680 | least acknowledge and connect the related societal issues. Your customers face daily.
00:49:52.840 | This leaves people behind. I think he's right. You have,
00:49:56.440 | you have to view this problem, not through the lens of your own emotions, not even through the
00:50:00.700 | lens of the frustrations of your employees. You have to help shift the discussion to say,
00:50:04.660 | why does this achieve our mission? And just constantly in a thoughtful, respectful way,
00:50:11.080 | ask why, and by the fourth or fifth, why it will either be something that doesn't matter
00:50:17.140 | and you can dismiss it quickly or something that actually is rooted in fact, and probably is
00:50:22.900 | something you need to pay attention to. And maybe the way that the conversation
00:50:26.380 | started was probably not with the right language that people given the chance would have framed it
00:50:31.300 | differently. Okay. The worst take, uh, according to the internet's, uh, Twitter's ability to ratio
00:50:37.000 | people, which is when you get more comments than likes, um, which is not normally how it works.
00:50:41.920 | People are actually taking the time to explain to you how bad your take was as opposed to liking it
00:50:46.780 | is what a ratio is. If you don't know, um, goes to Dick Costolo, um, who's a friend of ours, uh,
00:50:52.960 | me first capitalists who think
00:50:55.720 | you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall
00:51:01.360 | and shot in the revolution. I'll be ha I mean, and that's, that's enough to get you ratioed and
00:51:08.980 | have this thing go supernova. I mean, Mike Cernovich is retweeting this and losing like
00:51:13.720 | his mind over it. You know, that the former CEO of Twitter is inciting violence. He's a comedian
00:51:19.540 | as well. Um, to Costolo. So I think he's joking here and, but he adds the punk, the exclamation
00:51:24.820 | point.
00:51:25.060 | Okay.
00:51:25.300 | Okay.
00:51:25.660 | Okay.
00:51:25.700 | Okay. I'll happily provide video commentary.
00:51:27.680 | Here's here's here's my, uh, disagreement with, with Dick and, and with Jack is ultimately the
00:51:36.800 | societal value of a company doesn't come from whatever platitudes or political statements it's
00:51:42.680 | CEO makes, but rather from the quality of its products and the impact of its products. And in
00:51:48.260 | that sense, Dick and Jack are living in a glass house. I mean, Twitter is a sewer of political,
00:51:55.640 | diatribe and polemical hate. I don't know anyone who feels better after spending time on Twitter.
00:52:03.140 | If Facebook is like cigarettes, I don't know what Twitter is.
00:52:07.660 | Fentanyl?
00:52:08.500 | Fentanyl or something, yeah. So ultimately, maybe Jack should spend his time figuring out
00:52:14.920 | how to make Twitter into a less socially divisive product because just issuing
00:52:22.320 | woke platitudes is not going to do it.
00:52:24.180 | I agree with that. I don't think platitudes does it. All I'm saying is you have to view it through
00:52:30.300 | the lens of, I want to become the most relevant company possible and achieve the most impact.
00:52:36.000 | And I think that there are a lot of times where some of these issues, when presented politically,
00:52:41.780 | underlying it is actually some feature or some capability or some way of seeing the problem that
00:52:48.520 | unlocks more demand that can help you win. And not knowing a priori what the answers to those
00:52:53.720 | questions are, that's not going to help you win.
00:52:54.160 | It's important to train people on a framework versus say you can't talk because I guarantee
00:52:59.920 | you what will happen is somebody with some killer feature will be too scared to say something because
00:53:04.560 | they're not sure how to say it well. And you and I both know because we've seen many companies that
00:53:09.020 | have gone through that cycle, those companies decay and die.
00:53:12.260 | Yeah, I think it'd be great if a policy like this wasn't necessary. I mean, I agree it's
00:53:18.960 | suboptimal, but I think it's caused by the fact that people just can't get along around politics
00:53:23.860 | anymore.
00:53:24.140 | Yeah. Friedberg, what is your take on ultimately how Coinbase winds up the year or two after this?
00:53:31.460 | Do they get more resumes of hyper talented people who want to embrace a politics social issue free
00:53:39.820 | workplace? Or do millennials and you know, Gen C and this next group of talented folks say I don't
00:53:48.920 | want to work for somebody who doesn't want to talk about these issues at work. And then at the
00:53:54.120 | where you have a factory where you build companies. Do you have some rule around this yourself?
00:54:00.520 | Or thoughts about how you run your companies? I think the more clearly you define culture,
00:54:06.440 | the more successful your company will be. And right or wrong about whether or not you enable
00:54:12.520 | the debate in the discussion and how you define the forums for kind of political discussion within
00:54:18.200 | your company, the fact that there is a clear definition of delineation around this point,
00:54:23.880 | I think removes the uncertainty. And I think he'll do exactly what he's hoping to do, which is to get
00:54:28.760 | people to leave and to attract other people that better fit with that cultural model. I want to put
00:54:34.120 | my game face on, I want to go to work and I want to win the game I'm here to play. I'm not here to
00:54:39.400 | fuck around. I'm not here to do other stuff. I want this job because I believe in this mission.
00:54:44.200 | And I want this company to succeed in what it's trying to do. And I think other places
00:54:48.440 | that allow people to run around and, you know, do things that they may or may not appreciate
00:54:53.640 | other people doing or, and you have this kind of low definition kind of culture, where some people
00:54:59.240 | are happy, some people are unhappy, it all kind of, you know, slows things down. And I wouldn't
00:55:05.640 | kind of encourage anyone to let that happen. I think it's really important to just define how it
00:55:11.960 | is you want to operate, be really clear about the rules and the boundaries and then
00:55:15.400 | that I agree with as well. I mean, I think it's very much within his right. And I think it took it,
00:55:21.960 | I do applaud his courage,
00:55:23.400 | courage and doing it, I just think that it misses the mark, because I think it was too emotional.
00:55:27.240 | I think he could do a 2.0 version and just keep building on the manifesto and say,
00:55:31.080 | hey, based on the feedback I got, here's how we're going to do it. No discussion. He on the
00:55:36.440 | look at what
00:55:37.880 | Reid Hastings put out that fantastic PowerPoint that I think we all know really well,
00:55:42.840 | the cultural playbook from Netflix. And when did he put that out? Like,
00:55:46.200 | 2000?
00:55:46.840 | A decade ago?
00:55:48.440 | No, two decades ago, 2000.
00:55:50.280 | 2001.
00:55:51.080 | And he's continued to refine it, right? If you look at
00:55:53.160 | it, there's recent iterations of it, and they continue to kind of do a better job of defining,
00:55:56.680 | you know, how do they intend to operate with people. And I think it's, it's only continue
00:56:04.200 | to reinforce the innovation that drives that company into the $100 billion plus valuation
00:56:09.960 | it's earned.
00:56:11.080 | Yes. And if you if there's one important thing, which is that there's a meaningful difference in
00:56:17.160 | the average age of a Netflix employee and the average age of a Silicon Valley company. Now,
00:56:21.320 | that may be also part of it as well.
00:56:23.880 | I think the one thing that Brian could clarify is that you don't have to check your conscience
00:56:29.160 | at the door. You it's not we're not saying that you can't have political views. You're allowed
00:56:34.200 | to say things on Twitter or take political stands or donate to whoever you want. It's just that the
00:56:39.400 | company itself is going to be a demilitarized zone. You know, we're not going to bring we're
00:56:43.880 | not going to bring these contentious, divisive debates that really aren't related to our core
00:56:48.920 | mission inside the company. So we can all work better. So we can all work better as a team.
00:56:52.680 | Yeah, I think that's a really important thing to say. And I think that's a really important thing
00:56:53.000 | towards the reason that we all joined this company.
00:56:55.240 | But that's totally fair. But you know, all I'm saying all I'm saying again, I'll just say it
00:56:58.920 | again. That is such an important thing to say. You could have had a proofread a couple times.
00:57:04.200 | You didn't could have been could have come across the way you're saying it.
00:57:07.720 | It didn't have to be written by GPT-3. You know what I mean?
00:57:10.440 | Also, I think that it was the the dunk he did afterwards where he's like, and
00:57:16.200 | by the way, if you don't like it, here's four months severance. Get the fuck out.
00:57:21.800 | That was a pretty aggressive move as well. I don't know how you guys felt.
00:57:26.440 | I think I think I kind of like the gangster nature of it.
00:57:29.000 | I like I think it's I think it's great. It's like, if I'm on the team, and I believe in what he just
00:57:33.080 | said, I feel great that he's flushing the shit out. And if I don't agree with it, it's like,
00:57:37.240 | fuck, yeah, I'll take it. You know, like, it's really clear. And I think the clear cut definition
00:57:41.720 | of culture is what every company needs to kind of pursue. And it's an ongoing pursuit. And you
00:57:46.120 | can always do a better job with it. And culture is what you choose not to do as much as it is what
00:57:50.440 | you do, right? I'm not going to talk about culture. I'm not going to talk about culture.
00:57:50.920 | I'm not going to talk about politics.
00:57:52.280 | Friedberg is totally right. It takes a lot of courage to say, here's what I believe.
00:57:55.800 | And if you don't, if you don't believe it, then it's okay for you to leave. And
00:58:00.200 | here's a severance package that takes a lot of courage. So I applaud him for that.
00:58:03.800 | Yeah, I mean, look, it's a free country. And we all have limited time,
00:58:06.920 | we should all go work on the mission that is most important and inspiring to us.
00:58:11.880 | And Coinbase has a very specific mission that Brian's defining. He's trying to find it clearly.
00:58:17.480 | And if that mission is important and inspiring to you, then go work there. And if it's not,
00:58:20.840 | then go work at the place where the mission does inspire you. And it may be a startup or maybe
00:58:27.160 | a political organization, whatever it is, go do that thing that's most meaningful to you.
00:58:32.760 | That's kind of my interpretation of what he was saying.
00:58:35.800 | All right, as we wrap here,
00:58:37.560 | It was hard for me to interpret because it was so poorly written.
00:58:40.280 | Well, also, I mean, it was also like a huge bomb on Twitter. And people's reaction to it
00:58:46.920 | was based upon, I think, how they feel at this moment in time. And a lot of people feel,
00:58:50.680 | Yeah.
00:58:50.760 | This is why, I'm sorry, but communications is important. How you say things, what you say,
00:58:55.640 | style is really important.
00:58:58.440 | Yeah, whether it's Biden or Brian.
00:59:00.680 | Take the time, get it right.
00:59:02.680 | Yeah. All right. So 2021 is going to be upon us before we know it.
00:59:08.120 | And I wanted to wrap here with each of your feelings on
00:59:11.240 | the economy, technology and politics, economy, technology, politics. How do you feel about 2021?
00:59:20.680 | Are you optimistic, pessimistic, neutral on those economy, politics, technology?
00:59:27.000 | Have you guys ever been to Magic Mountain or Disneyland?
00:59:30.920 | Of course.
00:59:31.400 | You ever get in one of those log rides and it's like raging rapids or roaring waters or whatever
00:59:37.400 | they're called?
00:59:37.960 | Sure.
00:59:38.360 | And it's just fucking like you hop in and this thing just takes off down the river.
00:59:41.640 | I don't know. Nothing summarizes it better for me.
00:59:45.960 | But in so many ways, is that where I feel we are right now? We've all jumped on a bunch of
00:59:50.600 | fucking logs and we're shooting down this rapid river. And I think a big part of what I'm feeling
00:59:56.280 | and Chamath is in the middle of this, but there's this extraordinary velocity of capital right now.
01:00:01.640 | And when I say that, I just mean capital is moving in large amounts very freely.
01:00:07.400 | And that creates like once in a generation kind of opportunity. It's
01:00:11.400 | in part because the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero. So there's all these trillions
01:00:16.120 | of dollars moving markets. There's a change in an outlook and the world is being shifted in so
01:00:20.520 | many ways. This is this really amazing moment that I think we can all be afraid of because
01:00:25.880 | we're on a fucking roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat. But there is so much happening
01:00:32.040 | in these markets that we kind of operate in. There's never been a better time to get your
01:00:38.040 | business funded or to take your company public or to get customers to make quick decisions and
01:00:43.240 | change their behavior, whether they're a consumer or an enterprise customer.
01:00:46.520 | Money and decisions are happening at a... Money is moving at a faster pace than we've ever
01:00:50.440 | seen and decisions are happening at a faster pace than we've ever seen. That's my general
01:00:55.400 | sentiment. I don't think it stops going into 2021. There's just another kind of floodgate about to
01:01:00.200 | open with this election one way or the other. But we're in the middle of this kind of raging
01:01:05.720 | rapids right now. And it's a pretty scary but also kind of exciting kind of time.
01:01:11.800 | It's so well said, Quinoa. I really agree with you. I think that it's kind of like if you used to take a second,
01:01:19.880 | to make a $1 decision and a minute to take a $100 decision, the amount of money being flooded into
01:01:26.280 | the economy now allows you to make a $100 decision in a second. So like the order of magnitude of the
01:01:33.720 | mental barrier that it takes has changed. And I agree with you. I was thinking earlier this week
01:01:40.600 | that it's really incredible time to be alive in one very specific way, which is obviously there's
01:01:49.160 | stuff that's happening. There's a lot of stuff happening. There's a lot of stuff happening.
01:01:49.800 | That's really turbulent. But there is a chance that a bunch of us can really
01:01:55.800 | like, change things in a meaningful way. And I find it exciting. So I'm generally like,
01:02:07.000 | I'm super bullish on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech. And I think I'm actually kind of like
01:02:13.800 | reasonably optimistic about politics. I think that we're going to find our civility
01:02:19.720 | soon. And I don't know why that's going to happen or how it's going to get triggered.
01:02:27.160 | But I think honestly, like the election of Biden will go such a long way to just
01:02:34.840 | showing what is rewarded and then to figure out how to reward
01:02:42.680 | the folks that were supporting Trump in the first place for purposes of economic
01:02:49.640 | pushback.
01:02:50.200 | Preston Pysh : Could be a nice de-escalation,
01:02:52.440 | in fact, and maybe an olive branch if Biden can bring that Republican party into the conversation.
01:02:58.440 | Jay Gould : Yeah. And Sachs had this really beautiful
01:03:00.920 | thing that he posted on Twitter, which was like, a lot of San Francisco's dysfunction
01:03:06.840 | is really going to spread wealth throughout the rest of the country, because a lot of cities that
01:03:12.040 | were shut out of all these tech gains will now see it. And now you can imagine all kinds of people.
01:03:17.800 | Jay Gould : There's a guy that I
01:03:19.560 | follow on Twitter. He lives in Bowie, Maryland. He's an engineer at VMware,
01:03:24.840 | this black guy. And he was just talking about how he got promoted and he's now a principal engineer.
01:03:30.600 | And I just thought like, this is really fucking cool. There's going to be all this redistribution
01:03:37.560 | of opportunity all around the country. And that'll happen because of coronavirus, because
01:03:44.120 | of people's frustration with California, because of a handful of us, how fed up we've gotten with
01:03:49.480 | the culture of Silicon Valley, including by the way, what Brian Armstrong wrote, which again,
01:03:54.600 | still very important. And so we'll all be better off for that. So I don't know, I'm pretty optimistic.
01:04:00.280 | Preston Pysh : Sachs Tech Economy Politics 2021.
01:04:04.760 | Jay Gould : Well, I'm super bullish about the entrepreneurial
01:04:11.240 | energy in the American economy. It's 100 times greater than when we started out our careers in
01:04:18.120 | this business 20 years ago. Jay Gould : Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of work. It's a lot of work.
01:04:19.400 | Preston Pysh : And I think it's important to think about the
01:04:21.080 | things that we've done in the last 10, 20 years ago in terms of the number of companies that get
01:04:25.720 | funded, the ideas, the tools that are available, the funding. I mean, when you think about it, this
01:04:31.160 | might be the first time in human history where money is chasing the, like throwing money at the
01:04:36.040 | ideas. I mean, throughout history, until I'd say the last 10, 20 years ago, the people who had no
01:04:42.280 | money but had great ideas always had to go hat in hand to go find the capital. And now it's completely
01:04:49.320 | different. You can't find the people with ideas. Jay Gould :
01:04:52.440 | It was worse than that, Sachs. They had to go give their ideas to a big company and take a salary.
01:04:57.400 | Preston Pysh : Right. So Tesla, Nikola Tesla,
01:04:59.880 | the original inventor, didn't profit at all from his ideas. And so that was pretty common.
01:05:04.920 | And so just how entrepreneurial the US economy has become, I'm very… The new economy has completely
01:05:12.440 | taken over and I'm bullish on that. I think the tweet that Chamath was referencing, I said that
01:05:19.240 | San Francisco's loss is going to be America's gain, the rest of America's gain, because
01:05:23.720 | middle America was really left out of the new economy. It's just not where it was taking place.
01:05:28.200 | And so globalization really gutted industrial America, agricultural America. They didn't get
01:05:34.520 | to participate in the enormous wealth creation of the last two or three decades. And I think,
01:05:38.840 | I guess, because of what San Francisco has done in terms of driving out companies,
01:05:45.560 | I think the companies are going to be… Tech companies are going to be all over the US now.
01:05:49.160 | Preston Pysh : Yeah, totally. It's fucking awesome.
01:05:52.200 | Jay Gould : Should be super interesting. And so
01:05:56.680 | let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on Biden winning. Biden…
01:06:02.440 | Preston Pysh : 65-35, approaching 70-30.
01:06:06.280 | Jay Gould : Okay. David, you got a handicap for me on Biden winning?
01:06:13.160 | What do you think, Sax?
01:06:16.680 | David Morgan : Well, I mean, the betting line,
01:06:19.080 | is like somewhere in the 60 to 70% range. And so you'd have to say that the betting markets
01:06:25.080 | are probably pretty accurate. I guess, probably there's a 70% chance of him winning if I had to
01:06:31.320 | bet on that line. I'd probably take the 30% underdog, because I think things are in so
01:06:37.880 | much turmoil right now that anything could still happen.
01:06:39.880 | Preston Pysh : So you think there's a chance that Trump could win?
01:06:42.040 | David Morgan : Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. It's
01:06:45.240 | slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving him credit for.
01:06:47.480 | Jay Gould : Friedberg, what are your thoughts?
01:06:49.000 | Preston Pysh : Probably right. Yeah, I don't have anything to add to that.
01:06:51.000 | Jay Gould : All right. Any speculation that we want to end with, Chamath?
01:06:55.720 | On the, I just noticed that Emil from Uber is doing a SPAC. Mark Pincus is doing a SPAC.
01:07:03.880 | Everybody's doing SPACs now. Any speculation on what we're going to see in that market?
01:07:08.760 | Chamath Nani : Nope. God bless them. And I love you all, besties.
01:07:13.800 | Jay Gould : All right, besties.
01:07:14.760 | Chamath Nani : Back to the grind.
01:07:15.640 | Jay Gould : Back to the grind. We'll see you next time. You know what to do.
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