How Can I Better Estimate the Time it Takes to Complete Tasks?

00:00:00.000 | (upbeat music)

00:00:02.580 | - All right, next question we got from Michael.

00:00:06.920 | He's in operational technology,

00:00:09.400 | and he's got a question about estimating time

00:00:12.240 | to complete a task.

00:00:14.000 | - Hi Cal, Michael from sunny Ballarat, Australia here.

00:00:21.040 | I work in operational technology

00:00:22.560 | where the real things happen.

00:00:24.720 | So studies suggest we're terrible at estimating time

00:00:27.620 | required to complete a task,

00:00:29.860 | and that getting started is half the battle.

00:00:31.760 | I feel like there is competing thoughts

00:00:33.440 | on how to deal with this.

00:00:35.000 | On one hand, a task will expand to the time allocated to it.

00:00:38.620 | So allocate a short time

00:00:39.920 | and just get what you can done as a forcing function.

00:00:42.860 | On the other hand, take your estimate of time

00:00:45.440 | needed to complete it and double it

00:00:48.000 | to make sure you don't over commit or over schedule yourself.

00:00:51.240 | I'm always running out of time in a block

00:00:52.980 | or finishing early.

00:00:54.240 | How do you approach this tension?

00:00:56.720 | - Well, Michael, the good news is that you are time blocking.

00:01:00.380 | So if you're time blocking,

00:01:03.740 | you have a hope of actually figuring out

00:01:06.900 | how long things actually take.

00:01:08.900 | It's one of the great advantages of time blocking

00:01:11.860 | is that you get real time feedback.

00:01:14.380 | I gave this type of work this much time

00:01:16.360 | on my time block plan for today,

00:01:17.860 | and I did not hit that time.

00:01:20.240 | How do I know?

00:01:21.080 | Because I had to build a repaired schedule next to it

00:01:23.360 | because I blew past that time.

00:01:25.860 | Most people don't get this feedback, right?

00:01:27.520 | They're just like, what do I want to work on next?

00:01:29.120 | They kind of work on something

00:01:30.080 | and it takes longer than they think,

00:01:31.120 | and then they're scrambling at the end of the day.

00:01:33.160 | But they don't get that clear feedback

00:01:35.100 | for three weeks from now

00:01:36.080 | when that same thing is on their plate that they think,

00:01:38.280 | oh, wait, I actually need to start this

00:01:39.680 | a little bit earlier.

00:01:40.520 | This really takes this much time.

00:01:42.060 | If you're not giving every minute a plan

00:01:44.320 | and seeing how well that plan unfolds,

00:01:45.800 | you're really not internalizing this feedback.

00:01:48.100 | So this double the time you put aside rule,

00:01:51.900 | that is useful when you are new to time blocking,

00:01:54.560 | or at least when you're new to time blocking

00:01:55.960 | a particular type of activity.

00:01:57.960 | Yes, our instinct is we schedule not enough time.

00:02:00.960 | What I usually tell people

00:02:02.040 | if they're new to time blocking is 50% more,

00:02:04.920 | doubling would be a little bit more conservative,

00:02:06.560 | but people really underestimate at first.

00:02:09.440 | However, and this is the real benefit,

00:02:11.400 | you won't have to keep doing that forever

00:02:15.580 | because you will get better at these estimates.

00:02:19.820 | So you put down time, when you hit it, you're happy,

00:02:22.720 | when you don't, you don't.

00:02:24.700 | You're getting reinforcement here.

00:02:27.180 | Do this for a few weeks,

00:02:28.740 | you're putting down the right amount of time.

00:02:31.040 | So if you're time blocking,

00:02:32.900 | yes, there's a place for this heuristic

00:02:34.740 | of just add more time than you think,

00:02:37.500 | but it's only when you get started.

00:02:40.040 | If you're more or less hitting it just about right,

00:02:42.900 | then you say, okay, I know how much this takes.

00:02:45.260 | And then you can stick with that time.

00:02:46.840 | So that's what I would suggest is

00:02:48.980 | if you're blowing past your blocks, use a 50% rule.

00:02:51.460 | If that's working, then stick with it.

00:02:54.140 | You're probably right about where you need to be.

00:02:55.980 | So you'll get better at this

00:02:57.020 | as you keep practicing with your blocks.

00:02:59.880 | All right, we're pretty technical today, Jesse.

00:03:02.660 | I think we had a call about process consulting.

00:03:06.140 | We got an operation technologist talking about time blocking.

00:03:09.620 | So we're sort of in the business weeds today.

00:03:13.580 | Are we keeping that up with the next one?

00:03:14.740 | What's the next one?

00:03:15.580 | (upbeat music)

00:03:18.160 | [Music]

How Can I Better Estimate the Time it Takes to Complete Tasks?

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