back to indexAll-In Summit: In conversation with Larry Summers
Chapters
0:0 Besties welcome Larry Summers to AIS!
2:14 Consumer spending, inflation, and the likelihood of a soft landing
7:24 What would Larry do as Federal Reserve Chair?
10:29 Inflation, interest rates, and political motivations
14:9 Regulation to create “frameworks in which freedom can flourish”
16:29 American resilience and self-denying prophets
20:46 Educational reform, self-esteem, and achievement
25:35 Affirmative action and legacy admissions
30:30 Free speech and academic freedom
00:00:32.000 |
Larry is an absolutely incredible human being. 00:00:48.000 |
He's been on the board of some very well-known tech startups like Square, now Block. 00:00:53.000 |
He's been a great friend of mine for 12 or 13 years. 00:01:01.000 |
But I want to start with one very quick story. 00:01:03.000 |
Larry was staying at my house, and he runs into the kitchen, and he says, 00:01:10.000 |
"Jamal, the internet is not working. I have an extremely important Zoom." 00:01:15.000 |
And I said, "Oh, yeah, no problem. You can just use this thing over here." 00:01:18.000 |
And he goes, "Oh, I need you to help me get on the Zoom." 00:01:20.000 |
So I'm like this IT guy helping him get on the Zoom. 00:01:24.000 |
And up pops a picture of the governor of the DOJ, the Bank of Japan. 00:01:30.000 |
And he says, "Jamal, if I'm a little peckish, could I just get anything you have over here to eat?" 00:01:34.000 |
So I go outside, and my mom's like, "What is going on?" 00:01:37.000 |
And I said, "Oh, Larry Summers has a meeting with the head of the BOJ." 00:01:43.000 |
And she stops me on the head and she goes, "We must make him something to eat." 00:01:46.000 |
And so we made scrambled eggs and orange juice. 00:01:52.000 |
And then at the end of it, she's like, "Who is he, this person talking to the head of the BOJ?" 00:01:56.000 |
And I said, "It's Larry Summers, blah, blah, blah." 00:01:58.000 |
And then once she heard that it was Clinton, she hit me on the top of the head again, and she worked for Clinton. 00:02:02.000 |
And she said, "We should have given him fresh-squeezed orange juice." 00:02:11.000 |
He is literally one of the most stimulating intellectual people that I know. 00:02:14.000 |
So let's start with the most pressing question. 00:02:20.000 |
You have basically become the shadow secretary of the Treasury and the shadow Fed governor. 00:02:31.000 |
Give us just the five-minute redux on the economy. 00:02:34.000 |
We have a thing in politics, Shamath, it's called the management of expectations. 00:02:40.000 |
And you have just failed me completely in that regard. 00:02:49.000 |
There's those who know they don't know and those who don't know they don't know. 00:02:54.000 |
I'm in the first category, so I'll give you my best guesses, but that's what they are. 00:03:02.000 |
What Samuel Johnson said about second marriage is true of soft landings. 00:03:08.000 |
They represent the triumph of hope over experience. 00:03:21.000 |
There's never been a time when inflation was above 4 and unemployment was below 4 00:03:27.000 |
and the U.S. economy didn't go into recession before that situation was resolved. 00:03:33.000 |
That's why I've been kind of a Cassandra on inflation and the cyclical outlook for the last couple of years. 00:03:52.000 |
It's ultimately aspiring to fly very fast and then land on an aircraft carrier. 00:04:00.000 |
It was way off course and seemingly out of control. 00:04:07.000 |
The pilot figured out that it was all screwed up, 00:04:12.000 |
and now the pilot's got the plane on a reasonable course, and that's good. 00:04:21.000 |
But it's still 300 yards above the deck of the aircraft carrier, 00:04:32.000 |
and it's still an open question whether it's going to hit the aircraft carrier 00:04:43.000 |
or whether it's going to overfly the aircraft carrier 00:04:47.000 |
and have to turn around and achieve a soft landing. 00:04:51.000 |
And I think all of that is still very much at risk. 00:04:59.000 |
The people who say it's all okay, we never need to worry about inflation, 00:05:18.000 |
but inflation was never on an underlying basis anything like 8 or 9. 00:05:26.000 |
It was like 5, artificially pushed up by used cars and airline fares 00:05:37.000 |
And the thing about stuff that mean reverts is that it mean reverts. 00:05:42.000 |
And so when that stuff was going up real fast, 00:05:45.000 |
we had 8% inflation with an underlying inflation rate of 5%. 00:05:53.000 |
we have an underlying rate of inflation of 4 or 5%, 00:06:08.000 |
it's down a little, maybe it's down half a percent, 00:06:20.000 |
But it's a long way from where we are now to a soft landing. 00:06:31.000 |
I think you've got risks that the consumer is going to slow down hard, 00:06:46.000 |
and that you're going to see the economy have a bit the Wiley-Coyote aspect, 00:07:02.000 |
that we don't really have inflation on a secure path down below 3.5% 00:07:10.000 |
and that the Fed thinks it's got it under control and it doesn't, 00:07:15.000 |
and that it's going to have to go back to raising rates. 00:07:25.000 |
So if you're Jay Powell, if you had Jay Powell's job right now, 00:07:33.000 |
I thought Jay Powell was a million miles off course two years ago. 00:07:40.000 |
I thought he was talking about zero interest rates until 2024. 00:07:44.000 |
He was talking about inflation being transitory. 00:07:47.000 |
It was all on a different planet than the one that I thought I was seeing. 00:07:56.000 |
he has recognized that the principal problem is inflation, 00:08:07.000 |
that he needed to focus on getting inflation back to target, 00:08:13.000 |
and so my differences would be small and on tactics 00:08:22.000 |
I think the Fed probably needs to be investing a bit more in its credibility 00:08:30.000 |
by emphasizing that it's prepared to raise rates again 00:08:42.000 |
I think the Fed should be recognizing that the extraordinary size 00:08:49.000 |
of the U.S. budget deficit and where it is in prospect 00:08:57.000 |
and should be more willing to call that out than it is. 00:09:04.000 |
I think the Fed on matters relating to financial regulation 00:09:11.000 |
should be giving more attention to market prices 00:09:19.000 |
and less to a variety of book value regulatory concepts 00:09:33.000 |
when the government basically infused $2.9 trillion 00:09:46.000 |
and when the Fed promised it was going to keep interest rates at zero 00:09:50.000 |
till 2024 and when the Fed bought bonds on a massive scale, 00:10:02.000 |
Since then, we've been working our way on the monetary policy side 00:10:14.000 |
But that doesn't mean if you get all the wrong answers 00:10:25.000 |
and you still won't get a very good grade for the overall experience. 00:10:31.000 |
My interpretation of what happened in 2021 is in Q1, 00:10:34.000 |
they passed that $2 trillion American Rescue Plan, 00:10:40.000 |
You absolutely nailed it by warning that this could set off inflation. 00:10:44.000 |
And the politics of that was that the administration, 00:10:49.000 |
"Oh, no, Larry doesn't know what he's talking about." 00:10:53.000 |
And then sure enough, the inflation came that summer. 00:10:56.000 |
And that's when they almost, I think for political reasons, 00:10:59.000 |
had to say it was transitory because they didn't want to admit 00:11:02.000 |
that you had been right and they had been wrong three months before. 00:11:07.000 |
the Fed waited another nine months to start raising interest rates. 00:11:12.000 |
They should have reacted back in the summer of 2021. 00:11:15.000 |
I don't know. That's my interpretation of the politics. 00:11:21.000 |
are they thinking about the politics in the current administration? 00:11:26.000 |
Or are they acting independently like they're supposed to? 00:11:31.000 |
- First of all, I think I'm a spectator and commentator, 00:11:43.000 |
I'll leave it to others to speculate about everybody's motives. 00:11:55.000 |
change it only slowly in response to evidence. 00:12:00.000 |
I'm basically someone who mostly goes to Washington 00:12:08.000 |
that there are limits to our knowledge and limits to our competence. 00:12:12.000 |
And so it's often true that the best thing we can do is get out of the way. 00:12:19.000 |
But I also think that it's a mistake to think 00:12:25.000 |
that whenever anybody makes a judgment that doesn't turn out right in Washington, 00:12:30.000 |
that it's because they had some bad political motive 00:12:35.000 |
rather than they were using their best judgment 00:12:40.000 |
And like human beings in public environments, 00:12:44.000 |
they change their mind slowly in the face of evidence. 00:13:19.000 |
or do we need to say we got this all screwed up, 00:13:25.000 |
And that's a decision we all are always making. 00:13:29.000 |
And it's not that it's always the right thing to change course 00:13:37.000 |
And so I think people obviously made bad decisions 00:13:41.000 |
and they kept making them and they made them too long 00:13:45.000 |
But I think that it's a mistake, really a serious mistake, 00:14:00.000 |
just because I was struck by what came before. 00:14:03.000 |
Look, I really do worry a lot about regulation. 00:14:10.000 |
that the largest part of the good that cops do 00:14:14.000 |
is not that they catch people breaking into houses 00:14:28.000 |
is because everybody knows that there are cops around 00:14:32.000 |
and they commit far fewer crimes than they otherwise would. 00:14:40.000 |
only by the incidents where the police are actively involved 00:14:49.000 |
And the same thing is true with respect to regulation. 00:15:01.000 |
that make this place a very different place to do business 00:15:06.000 |
than Argentina and a much greater place to do business 00:15:14.000 |
have to do with institutions and regulations. 00:15:28.000 |
that was regarded as oppressive, totalitarian, 00:15:33.000 |
wrong, and anti-market beginning in the late 1940s, 00:15:39.000 |
it would be impossible for this gathering to exist 00:15:44.000 |
because the smog in Los Angeles would be so profoundly serious. 00:15:57.000 |
that you need frameworks in which freedom can flourish. 00:16:12.000 |
and maybe America being past its peak in decline. 00:16:20.000 |
about the perhaps existential crisis for America 00:16:33.000 |
in terms of how much we're spending, debt-to-GDP ratio? 00:16:39.000 |
And then what are your thoughts about America 00:16:41.000 |
on the global stage versus other emerging powers, 00:16:50.000 |
I think the most important theme in American history 00:17:02.000 |
but I'm old enough--I'm old compared to the people 00:17:10.000 |
when Jimmy Carter declared a crisis of the national spirit 00:17:28.000 |
couldn't go speak anywhere in the country, pretty much, 00:17:34.000 |
and where there was gunfire on college campuses. 00:17:44.000 |
I'm not old enough to remember, but I've read about-- 00:17:47.000 |
when Joe McCarthy had the country in his thrall 00:18:12.000 |
to declare dictatorial powers to take the country over, 00:18:29.000 |
that the spirit of the Revolution had already been lost. 00:19:05.000 |
there comes--there's come the end for everything 00:19:13.000 |
But I'd rather be playing the hand of the United States 00:19:26.000 |
certainly than the hand that societies in Asia, 00:19:31.000 |
where there are only going to be half as many people 00:19:36.000 |
certainly than the societies of Western Europe. 00:19:49.000 |
don't need to be terribly, terribly concerned 00:20:08.000 |
that a society facing grave national security threats, 00:20:16.000 |
and a rising price of medical care and education 00:20:28.000 |
That doesn't mean that there aren't huge challenges 00:20:37.000 |
associated with everything that's coming out of 00:21:01.000 |
I think that we have in our educational system, 00:21:09.000 |
and it's true of our unionized elementary schools, 00:21:21.000 |
to thinking that achievement comes from self-esteem. 00:21:52.000 |
And that the big education reform idea of the moment 00:22:29.000 |
is something that I think is very much a problem. 00:22:38.000 |
So yeah, I'm worried about the national sociology problem, 00:22:43.000 |
represented by the fact that we used to be a country 00:22:48.000 |
60 years ago where 4% of men between 25 and 54 were not working, 00:22:53.000 |
and now we're a country where 14% are not working 00:23:01.000 |
don't work for more than three months within a two-year period. 00:23:05.000 |
Am I worried about that? Yeah, I absolutely am. 00:23:19.000 |
Am I worried about a kind of broad constipation? 00:23:27.000 |
Many of you have probably been to Harvard Square. 00:23:31.000 |
There's a bridge. The bridge goes over the Charles River. 00:23:42.000 |
It needed to be fixed. It did need to be fixed. 00:24:03.000 |
Patton built a bridge over the Rhine 3,000 feet in one day. 00:24:12.000 |
But there are better things about spending your life 00:24:19.000 |
And so I wandered over to the classics department one day, 00:24:23.000 |
and I learned that Julius Caesar, Julius Caesar, 00:24:42.000 |
Is this the first time we've had huge problems? 00:24:46.000 |
Is there the prospect that we can solve those problems? 00:25:26.000 |
from every part of the world want to come to. 00:25:49.000 |
You wrote, actually, a pretty interesting op-ed 00:25:59.000 |
just society in general as a reflection of that. 00:26:07.000 |
I wish that great universities were in a position 00:26:11.000 |
to set their course and to compete with each other 00:27:02.000 |
and there are things that are much more important 00:27:15.000 |
Whatever the right way to think about this was 00:27:29.000 |
If there are scarce spots in our great universities, 00:27:55.000 |
Let's end athletic recruiting for aristocratic sports. 00:28:14.000 |
that there exists early decision and early action. 00:28:20.000 |
But it basically works to help the privileged, 00:28:25.000 |
and it basically prevents the underprivileged, 00:28:38.000 |
to make exploding offers to our MBA students. 00:28:42.000 |
Why should great colleges make exploding offers 00:28:59.000 |
that scale was a verb as distinct from a noun. 00:29:03.000 |
I thought it was something you kind of stepped on 00:29:19.000 |
nearly a tenth as successful as Stanford or Harvard, 00:29:47.000 |
that technology presents to provide education, 00:29:54.000 |
about educational technology, if you think about it. 00:30:03.000 |
and at the same time be much more personalized. 00:30:11.000 |
you can go deeper in the things that you're interested in. 00:30:22.000 |
And our great universities have only scratched 00:30:32.000 |
- Last question, because we're running out of time. 00:30:33.000 |
I just want to make sure you touch free speech on campuses 00:30:36.000 |
and how it's actually affecting the rest of society as well. 00:31:15.000 |
That is the essence of great universities at their best. 00:31:19.000 |
It is the essence of a great university at its best 00:31:27.000 |
some freshman could come in and read my paper 00:31:31.000 |
and explain how it was kind of an interesting paper 00:31:34.000 |
but it was really pretty completely confused. 00:31:41.000 |
He wasn't right, but it was a fantastic thing. 00:31:48.000 |
And yet so much of what we should be able to argue about 00:31:59.000 |
Some of that is the speakers who get disinvited, 00:32:08.000 |
that there are only certain views you're allowed to have 00:32:17.000 |
that there are only certain views you're allowed to have 00:32:21.000 |
on questions about markets and redistribution, 00:32:25.000 |
that there are only certain views you're allowed to have 00:32:31.000 |
There shouldn't be any views you're not allowed to have. 00:32:44.000 |
but academic freedom does not mean freedom from criticism, 00:32:54.000 |
That is the essence of the most successful human institutions, 00:33:00.000 |
and our universities should be modeling and demonstrating that 00:33:05.000 |
rather than leading a charge, as it too often seems they are, 00:33:11.000 |
towards an orgy of mutual self-regard, respect, and care, 00:33:18.000 |
rather than getting closer to the truth in the most excellent way. 00:33:32.000 |
Thank you, Mr. Summers. That was extraordinary. 00:34:02.000 |
That's my dog taking a piss in your driveway. 00:34:12.000 |
One big huge orgy because they're all just useless. 00:34:14.000 |
It's like this sexual tension, but they just need to release it now.