back to indexBuying_Real_Estate_During_COVID-19
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And in this episode, I want to talk about buying real estate 00:00:12.560 |
to build wealth because it's simple to understand. 00:00:23.680 |
When the stock market was declining by 10% a day, 00:00:27.560 |
and when the S&P 500 was down about 32% at one point, 00:00:32.120 |
did the value of real estate drop by 10% a day and 32%? 00:00:36.360 |
Were you seeing sales down 32% the very next week, or that day, 00:00:44.200 |
Instead, what you've seen is that real estate 00:00:46.720 |
has held its value during the pandemic so far. 00:00:53.400 |
because money rushed out of stocks and into real estate. 00:00:56.600 |
So in this episode, I think it's very important 00:00:59.800 |
to highlight the opportunity that real estate 00:01:03.440 |
I don't think that opportunity is going to last very long, 00:01:16.880 |
when the Dow was below 19,000 and when the S&P 500 was 00:01:22.880 |
Now, it's going to be a little bit hard to find 00:01:27.320 |
And when a lot of people talk about, OK, well, 00:01:35.600 |
when the stock market fell 55%, but real estate prices also 00:01:45.040 |
Back then in 2008, 2009, we had over leverage 00:01:57.360 |
and people were just borrowing as much as they could 00:01:59.840 |
because banks were lending as much as they could. 00:02:02.560 |
It was a crap show back then, and it took a long time 00:02:08.200 |
When people go bankrupt, it takes seven years to recover. 00:02:12.960 |
Here in this example, everything is self-imposed, 00:02:21.440 |
and you are listening from the governors and the mayors 00:02:27.000 |
will be ending partially in May and hopefully continuously 00:02:36.880 |
is down about 20% in terms of traffic to the Redfin website. 00:02:42.880 |
think their algorithm is the best for valuing property 00:02:57.560 |
So demand is down 20%, but listings or inventory 00:03:03.080 |
Therefore, one can conclude that pricing is going to stay steady, 00:03:11.160 |
with highlighted examples of real estate outperformance 00:03:19.680 |
to be opportunistic in building wealth and buying real estate 00:03:27.640 |
But they are out there because we did see the stock market 00:03:34.000 |
And we did see many, many people and institutions 00:03:41.760 |
even if just 5% of the people are still freaked out 00:03:45.800 |
and think that we're going to retest the lows, which we very 00:03:49.360 |
well may, or go much lower, which we very well may, 00:04:00.280 |
Those people are out there, and they are listing their homes. 00:04:17.320 |
and offer them lower prices, because you believe things 00:04:23.360 |
As you've listened in previous podcast episodes, 00:04:28.480 |
And just to be forewarned, I'm generally an optimistic person. 00:04:31.600 |
And I try to look at the positives in everything. 00:04:45.320 |
And if you had bought the S&P 500 below 2,400, 00:04:48.760 |
as I discussed in the Stock Market Bottom Analysis post 00:04:51.560 |
and podcast, you would be up 15% to 30% plus right now, 00:04:58.240 |
I mean, if you just look at the NASDAQ right now 00:05:05.560 |
So the NASDAQ tech stocks have tremendously outperformed. 00:05:11.840 |
in the S&P 500 and the Dow, because we rebounded way 00:05:16.400 |
We're up 30-plus percent from the bottom now. 00:05:22.560 |
is what is going on between the stock market, the economy, 00:05:27.600 |
So obviously, there's a disconnect between the stock 00:05:29.800 |
market rebound and what the economy is doing, 00:05:39.840 |
We're probably going to be at 40 million by the end of May. 00:05:42.560 |
It's ugly out there in the economy, in the real world. 00:05:47.800 |
because the rebound, because it's discounting 3, 6, 9, 00:05:53.280 |
And the future is saying lockdowns are going to end. 00:06:02.960 |
But the real estate market is very interesting, 00:06:10.120 |
So what we're trying to do is capture that timing mismatch, 00:06:15.200 |
where we find the seller who still thinks we're at the S&P 00:06:27.360 |
yet to come, because the Federal Reserve and the federal 00:06:33.100 |
the enhanced unemployment benefits, and the PPB loans 00:06:40.520 |
will be equal to or greater than all the government model 00:06:45.000 |
They believe there won't be any efficiency or productivity 00:06:47.840 |
gains after going through months of working from home. 00:06:51.320 |
They also confuse a slowdown in the real estate brokerage 00:06:57.440 |
You see a lot of headlines out there that say, 00:07:02.700 |
is the brokerage business, because the volume is down 60%. 00:07:06.900 |
But pricing of property is something completely different. 00:07:13.740 |
the automatic assumption is that pricing is collapsing. 00:07:16.980 |
But no, the journalists are talking about the real estate 00:07:23.140 |
The other thing is there's fear that lockdowns 00:07:25.980 |
will last well beyond the third quarter of 2020. 00:07:31.240 |
People are going to actually start saving aggressively 00:07:36.420 |
of reverting back to their old ways of spending 00:07:40.260 |
You can never, ever, ever count out the US consumer 00:07:43.420 |
to take on debt, to max out their credit card, 00:07:50.340 |
We are a proud nation full of independent people 00:07:54.220 |
who, doesn't matter how little we work at something 00:08:05.140 |
Well, the easiest way to find these sellers-- 00:08:07.340 |
and frankly, the only way if you're locked down-- 00:08:14.300 |
want to buy on the real estate platforms out there. 00:08:17.380 |
Redfin and Zillow are the two most common ones. 00:08:20.700 |
And if you find something that is either mispriced 00:08:31.620 |
And I was able to get in there and have private showings. 00:08:40.860 |
going on in the seller's point of view, what's going on 00:08:53.660 |
And talk and ask and question what is going on. 00:09:05.280 |
Otherwise, you would just wait one or two months 00:09:08.360 |
once the lockdown ends to sell your property. 00:09:13.440 |
going to get a higher price or your asking price 00:09:21.760 |
And to take advantage, you have to do several things. 00:09:25.000 |
One, you've got to focus on making a connection 00:09:35.080 |
Because the seller wants to feel comfortable, 00:09:42.060 |
It is way more stressful to be a seller than a buyer. 00:09:53.640 |
and you tell the listing agent how much you love the property 00:10:02.580 |
that they are right now for listing their property. 00:10:08.100 |
Otherwise, he or she wouldn't list right now. 00:10:21.060 |
It's also embarrassing when you put yourself out there 00:10:32.120 |
And luckily for you, it's currently much easier 00:10:34.860 |
to imagine the end of the world, given the 24/7 news cycle is 00:10:38.460 |
all about the coronavirus deaths and economic destruction. 00:10:51.440 |
I take the different angle, but if I was strategically smart, 00:10:53.980 |
I would also pump out lots of negative stuff. 00:10:59.120 |
I want to look through the noise and try to get things better 00:11:07.040 |
to become the doomer bear that the seller is right now. 00:11:11.980 |
You could talk about the big picture scenario, 00:11:14.960 |
such as discussing 40 million people unemployed 00:11:17.900 |
and what's going to happen to the real estate market 00:11:21.400 |
You can talk about how the stock market corrected by 50% 00:11:25.040 |
in 2008 and 2009, and the real estate market followed suit. 00:11:29.160 |
You can talk about COVID-19 mutating and thereby 00:11:39.080 |
you can talk about if you choose to be negative. 00:11:41.880 |
And the interesting thing is it's really not too much 00:11:44.480 |
hyperbole to talk about all these negative things, 00:11:47.280 |
because if you look at the government models, 00:12:00.560 |
So in case you feel that you're talking nonsense 00:12:03.120 |
or the seller thinks you're talking nonsense, 00:12:05.400 |
all you've got to do is show the government models 00:12:12.200 |
Because hey, you've got to believe the government, right? 00:12:27.160 |
Your goal is really to paint a picture of the house 00:12:38.440 |
Instead, you want to come across as financially stable. 00:12:42.880 |
Because after all, any one of these things about doom 00:12:54.680 |
Like Inception, that movie, one of my favorite movies, 00:12:57.480 |
if you could implant just one of these doomsday items 00:13:00.800 |
into their minds as they are mulling over your offer, 00:13:06.740 |
into the panic stock seller when the Dow was at 18,500 00:13:20.480 |
You just want to rewind time and be that real estate 00:13:26.320 |
A couple more strategies you should think about 00:13:30.720 |
You should focus on the benefits of a simpler life. 00:13:34.560 |
A large reason why many real estate sellers want to sell 00:13:44.720 |
which is not something we want really right now. 00:13:47.280 |
So your goal is to allow the seller to think, 00:13:51.040 |
oh, if they could just have a simpler life and sell to you, 00:13:57.080 |
I sold one of my main rental properties in 2017 00:14:01.280 |
because I just couldn't take dealing with the tenants 00:14:18.800 |
So focus on the benefits of a simpler life for the seller. 00:14:26.840 |
After investing so much in getting to know you, 00:14:29.960 |
writing the love letter, telling the agent what 00:14:33.000 |
you plan to do with the property, and so forth, 00:14:44.840 |
So I make sellers fear losing me by writing a real estate 00:14:50.720 |
And you can see an example in one of my posts 00:15:03.520 |
And I think it's going to continue to tick up. 00:15:05.600 |
Basically, what we're seeing is a shift from spring inventory. 00:15:12.400 |
been locked down for two months in March and April, 00:15:21.600 |
And then we start school in the summer and so forth. 00:15:25.760 |
And we are seeing inventory tick up a little bit. 00:15:30.600 |
the more inventory that is out there, the more competition 00:15:43.800 |
Given the S&P 500 corrected by 32% from its high, 00:15:47.040 |
you could offer 32% below comparable sales prices 00:16:00.160 |
Unfortunately, I think offering 32% lower than the most recent 00:16:05.720 |
And it will likely seriously offend the seller. 00:16:14.680 |
is somewhere around 10% to 20% below recent coms. 00:16:23.520 |
And you're still going to offend a lot of sellers. 00:16:27.720 |
And hopefully, you can get a price between 10% to 20% 00:16:35.240 |
It's going to be very hard because inventory is down again. 00:16:48.840 |
It's not on whether the seller gets the highest price 00:16:56.240 |
That's how they're going to get their commissions. 00:16:58.280 |
And volume has been way down for the past two months. 00:17:01.960 |
And a little bit more thoughts on your offer. 00:17:20.120 |
It's not as good because there's a second party involved 00:17:23.000 |
that the seller has to worry about not going through, 00:17:25.200 |
even though the bank has already said and committed 00:17:35.840 |
on the data you've provided, that you're good to go. 00:17:38.680 |
Getting pre-approved is not as good as an all cash offer, 00:17:42.840 |
but it's better than getting pre-qualified, which really 00:17:46.520 |
It's just figuring out-- pre-qualified is just 00:17:48.880 |
figuring out how much you can potentially borrow. 00:17:55.120 |
In conclusion, again, I think there's only a one to two month 00:17:58.920 |
window where you can find these sellers out there who 00:18:02.320 |
don't realize that things have improved in the economy 00:18:08.680 |
And let's say we do retest the lows and go lower. 00:18:14.200 |
I think retesting the lows is probably a 25% to 30% 00:18:22.000 |
And going lower, well, much lower than the lows 00:18:27.080 |
So if you did end up buying real estate at 10% to 20% 00:18:32.360 |
below, let's say, the February 2020 levels, well, 00:18:35.680 |
at least you are buying at a more appropriate level 00:18:39.000 |
if we do head lower or go lower in the stock market 00:18:49.560 |
There's no certainty from me or from the sellers 00:18:55.320 |
with the information we have available at the time. 00:19:00.800 |
I've sold 100% of what I bought in March at the end of April 00:19:05.720 |
and into early May when the S&P 500 rebounded to 28.50 00:19:19.520 |
De-risk, de-risk, de-risk is my mantra for the summer. 00:19:23.400 |
And I'm back down to my 20% of net worth in equities 00:19:33.320 |
And so if you are a savvy real estate and stock market 00:19:41.960 |
Because again, real estate is a laggard to the stock market. 00:19:49.920 |
in the stock market and the real estate market 00:19:51.920 |
during the previous financial crisis and the one before that. 00:19:59.920 |
I think you have an opportunity to buy real estate 00:20:03.720 |
at depressed levels from highly motivated sellers. 00:20:10.480 |
So keep playing, keep understanding, keep listening, 00:20:14.280 |
The opportunities are out there if you pay attention 00:20:19.520 |
If you enjoyed this podcast, I appreciate a positive review. 00:20:23.800 |
It's on, I think, iTunes, Spotify, and Google Play.