back to indexBogleheads® Conference 2023 - Dana Anspach & Jon Luskin on Planning for Retirement
Chapters
0:0 Introductions
0:54 Tax mitigation strategies
3:12 Roth conversion planning
5:11 "Age in bonds" rule as opposed to asset/liability matching
7:43 Alternative assets
10:23 Proper plannign as a way to give more
11:55 Is a Vanguard target-date fund adequate for a retirement portfolio?
14:29 Story time! (Largest financial mistakes Dana has seen.)
16:56 Concentrated stock positions
18:30 Asset allocation for a retiree not spending from savings
21:33 Dana's own retirement plan
24:55 Resources for researching annuities
26:51 MLPs in a retirement portfolio
28:28 Portfolio simplification: rip off the band-aid?
29:40 Best strategy for mitigating capital gains on highly appreciated stock
31:40 SPIA vs deferred annuity
33:43 Discussing assets with adult children
35:55 Bond ladders
37:24 Pros and cons of 401(k) rollover
40:22 What to do with stock with large capital loss
41:38 How to balance taxable/tax-deferred/Roth
43:2 Diversifying across multiple brokerage firms
44:23 Tax planning for premium tax credit
00:00:03.160 |
- All right, folks, welcome to our second breakout session 00:00:17.180 |
Dana is the founder and CEO of Sensible Money, 00:00:20.940 |
a firm specializing in retirement income planning. 00:00:25.620 |
"for the Perfect Retirement," a lecture series, 00:00:28.460 |
and "Control Your Retirement Destiny," available on Amazon. 00:00:35.740 |
that I got from the Bogleheads community online 00:01:18.700 |
does he mean long-term tax mitigation or short-term? 00:01:25.900 |
So when we're talking about retirement income planning, 00:01:30.180 |
the tax liability over the course of your life, 00:01:37.100 |
And so I would have to put at the top of the list 00:01:46.900 |
using some of the types of analysis that Wade showed, 00:01:50.240 |
you can reduce someone's lifetime tax liability. 00:01:58.740 |
And so when you're reducing the RMDs later in life, 00:02:13.340 |
And so we have seen people in their first few years 00:02:16.380 |
of retirement who would be able to realize capital gains 00:02:25.820 |
And I might put number three would be qualifying people 00:02:30.660 |
And so if we have someone retiring earlier than 65, 00:02:34.860 |
we've had people with close to $3 million portfolios 00:02:39.860 |
that for several years, all the way up until they turn 65, 00:02:43.980 |
were able to qualify them for those tax credits 00:02:47.700 |
just by where and how they take their cash flow from. 00:02:55.500 |
and the cash flow, you're able to keep their AGI low enough 00:02:58.820 |
that they're qualifying for those tax credits. 00:03:04.780 |
So it was $30,000 a year of tax credit subsidies. 00:03:08.020 |
So that would probably be, when I think of long-term, 00:03:14.660 |
With respect to the Roth conversion planning, 00:03:16.740 |
does it always make sense to do a Roth conversion? 00:03:20.460 |
is gonna be the right strategy for a retiree or pre-retiree? 00:03:32.100 |
someone's tax rate now, someone's tax rate later. 00:03:35.180 |
And when I say tax rate, it's not just the marginal tax rate. 00:03:39.460 |
It's including all of the things that Wade talks about 00:03:42.540 |
in terms of how much of your Social Security is taxed 00:03:47.820 |
And if we do this, will it push you into a higher 00:03:52.220 |
So all of that is factored into that long-term tax analysis. 00:03:56.420 |
So it's not as simple as saying what's my marginal rate now 00:04:01.780 |
Because it gets more complicated in retirement 00:04:05.860 |
that are tied to some form of modified adjusted gross income. 00:04:10.020 |
And so we map it all out now through your lifetime 00:04:16.580 |
well, if I did this series of Roth conversions, 00:04:19.420 |
does that make your plan look better, more funded? 00:04:24.020 |
So we use the same kind of fundedness analysis 00:04:28.660 |
And we can quantify everything into that number. 00:04:44.460 |
- Certainly, and you touched on with respect to, 00:04:50.180 |
Folks certainly don't wanna be doing this on a spreadsheet. 00:04:53.980 |
he talked about this at last year's conference. 00:05:01.580 |
how to do Roth conversion planning for do-it-yourselfers. 00:05:04.580 |
And he says, hey, you wanna use some sort of software, 00:05:08.200 |
because the tax code just is that complicated. 00:05:14.520 |
This one is from Ryan Richardson from Bogleheads Facebook 00:05:21.700 |
So probably this doesn't need much explanation, 00:05:27.740 |
then you wanna have 60% of your portfolio in bonds, 00:05:34.980 |
- Well, I've never been a fan of that age in bonds rule. 00:05:42.920 |
So the amount of cash flow that we might need 00:05:45.840 |
from our portfolio isn't really dependent on our age. 00:06:00.220 |
if you've been listening to my presentation yesterday 00:06:08.820 |
where you're determining the amount of fixed income 00:06:11.600 |
by the years of cash flow that you want covered. 00:06:22.460 |
and Wade was referring to a paper that he and Kitsy's did 00:06:26.020 |
where they talk about your glide path in retirement, 00:06:32.820 |
where you would have a higher allocation to fixed income 00:06:36.020 |
to cover what are called the retirement red zone years, 00:06:40.660 |
and perhaps first five to 10 years of retirement 00:06:43.380 |
where you can be at the greatest risk of sequence risk. 00:06:46.060 |
And so you could have a much higher allocation 00:06:49.100 |
to fixed income as you're approaching that retirement date 00:06:52.180 |
and then actually let that fixed income allocation 00:06:59.200 |
So of course, you all have to make that decision 00:07:02.140 |
for yourself, but I don't like the just automated rules. 00:07:06.260 |
I think looking at it in relation to your actual situation 00:07:16.220 |
but then that first day of retirement at that point, 00:07:19.060 |
maybe it doesn't make sense to decrease risk at that point. 00:07:23.540 |
to increase the amount of risk that you're taking. 00:07:26.700 |
So let's say the age and bonds rule is good up to a point, 00:07:33.460 |
We've got one more question from the Bogleheads community 00:07:42.280 |
All right, so our final question that we got beforehand 00:07:47.260 |
this one is from Patty Fairchild from Bogleheads Facebook, 00:07:55.460 |
What role do they have in a retirement portfolio? 00:08:01.820 |
that William Bernstein gave earlier and just say none, 00:08:07.480 |
I've been practicing as a financial planner since 1995, 00:08:17.140 |
and that's a pretty broad category in itself. 00:08:20.580 |
Oftentimes it's, you know, a friend is starting this, 00:08:35.780 |
Now, the one exception was a company called iMortgage 00:08:41.740 |
and I think it turned into about half a million 00:08:58.060 |
where maybe there is some free lunch right now. 00:09:00.340 |
But typically, higher returns mean higher risk. 00:09:04.140 |
And so you have to decide, like, is it worth it? 00:09:31.100 |
is when you're talking about much higher net worth clients, 00:09:36.660 |
where they're really looking at adding diversification, 00:09:39.500 |
then maybe adding some of those alternative asset classes 00:09:46.740 |
that's really important that's missing from this question 00:09:52.420 |
And that's the problem with a lot of the private investments 00:09:55.860 |
Yes, maybe you're able to access a different asset class 00:10:00.220 |
but you're ignoring the really important factor of cost. 00:10:08.020 |
So Christine is going around now collecting your questions, 00:10:14.940 |
'cause I can ask you another question in the meantime. 00:10:20.860 |
So let's start with where often do you see money 00:10:24.940 |
getting left on the table when it comes to retirees? 00:10:28.100 |
- The biggest areas I've seen money left on the table 00:10:37.580 |
a lot of people are gonna be fine following a rule of thumb, 00:11:00.340 |
And so it's not leaving money necessarily on the table, 00:11:06.180 |
or we have a client who, as most of you are, very frugal, 00:11:10.820 |
and that's why they've been successful at saving. 00:11:23.620 |
and they thought, "Wow, if we can give this person $10,000, 00:11:37.500 |
And it just, you know, they were able to firsthand see 00:11:42.060 |
what was the impact that they made on this person's life. 00:11:45.220 |
And so that can be something that gets left on the table, 00:11:59.900 |
So related, is a Vanguard target date fund adequate 00:12:27.200 |
in terms of reasonable retirement portfolios. 00:12:29.940 |
Could you have a different approach that, you know, 00:12:33.060 |
it's all that might allow you to have different results 00:13:07.620 |
And those changes end up hurting them a lot more 00:13:11.060 |
than if they had just stuck with whatever strategy it was 00:13:55.580 |
but we are being paid to manage risks and outcomes 00:14:07.060 |
I would think that would be not an appropriate use. 00:14:10.740 |
Other than that, if you wanted a very simple strategy 00:14:13.780 |
and you were willing to leave it and forget it 00:14:31.700 |
Lots of people make some significant financial mistakes. 00:14:42.660 |
So the first one that comes to mind is a client. 00:14:47.420 |
So he was a pilot and mandatory retirement at 65. 00:14:56.300 |
but right before he retired, he came to me and he said, 00:15:06.380 |
Well, I put this $80,000 in this currency trading program 00:15:22.140 |
but you know instantly this is not sustainable. 00:15:28.620 |
it was of course discovered to be a Ponzi scheme. 00:15:31.260 |
And he did get five months worth of checks back 00:15:35.140 |
and then lost the remaining amount of the 80,000. 00:15:38.300 |
Luckily, that was only a small portion of his portfolio. 00:15:41.860 |
His core portfolio remained intact and so he's just fine. 00:15:46.340 |
The worst that I saw was a client, she was a widow. 00:15:56.580 |
and they decided to move their assets to a firm 00:16:00.740 |
that was of the same religious affiliation as them 00:16:03.900 |
and had thanked me for all our years of service 00:16:10.540 |
And a few years later, I got a call from the husband 00:16:13.580 |
and said, we'd really like to come in and see you. 00:16:18.500 |
and they came in and brought me all the paperwork. 00:16:20.500 |
And I literally remember it turning white as a sheet. 00:16:23.620 |
So they had basically signed away all the assets 00:16:45.660 |
of someone that based a decision based on trust 00:16:52.300 |
and just didn't know enough to know the level of risk 00:16:59.760 |
Some more common mistakes, concentrated stock risk 00:17:28.700 |
when I first moved to Arizona, I worked for a CPA firm 00:17:31.860 |
and we were in Mesa, Arizona, which is pretty close to, 00:17:39.140 |
and there was a woman who was in mid to late 60s, 00:17:45.960 |
and we were trying to convince her to diversify, 00:17:59.740 |
And so just someone that refused to diversify 00:18:06.200 |
that's a more common mistake than you might think 00:18:18.860 |
Folks, I'm gonna keep running through the questions, 00:18:20.660 |
but if you have a question, go ahead, write it down. 00:18:22.380 |
Christine Benz, she will take her questions from you 00:18:39.420 |
maybe some rental property, maybe an annuity, 00:18:42.060 |
and the person is comfortable with equity risk, 00:19:09.220 |
their entire net worth on real estate assets, 00:19:13.500 |
Her husband's an engineer and so that was her role 00:19:36.080 |
but she still had all of the deductible costs, 00:19:45.180 |
They're probably gonna need enough cash on the side 00:19:53.780 |
and they're confident in the cash flows they're getting, 00:20:03.260 |
The only other thing that I would add to that 00:20:08.380 |
is a lot of people that were relying on dividend portfolios 00:20:17.140 |
Well, I don't, you know, I don't wanna go through that again 00:20:22.260 |
you're gonna have half the amount of cash flow this year 00:20:25.700 |
and so if you're relying only on the interest income 00:20:30.300 |
well, that's easier today than it was two years ago, 00:20:37.300 |
and so I think you would always want something on the side 00:20:42.500 |
to make sure you had some consistency in cash flow. 00:20:51.220 |
but it's really dependent upon your personal circumstances, 00:20:53.540 |
so maybe it makes sense to be really aggressive 00:20:56.860 |
add off from a portfolio, but life is unpredictable. 00:21:10.940 |
that can be really hard if you need that cash flow 00:21:19.940 |
on income investing versus total return investing, 00:21:28.100 |
you can get that wherever you get your podcasts. 00:21:49.980 |
you could still be 20 years away from retirement, 00:21:52.860 |
or you could be five years away from retirement, 00:21:55.380 |
or you could be wanting to retire in two years, 00:22:00.020 |
What I will share is, and I shared this a little bit 00:22:04.340 |
on stage the other day, is my own retirement plan, 00:22:18.540 |
and look out and say, well, if I were to retire at 65, 00:22:25.180 |
And I will most definitely delay Social Security. 00:22:31.660 |
I will transition whatever that dollar amount is, 00:22:41.660 |
and that would be rung one on my income ladder. 00:22:51.020 |
for sure, I would do it, but if we're in a bear market, 00:22:53.980 |
the year I turn 55, then I would probably not build out 00:22:57.060 |
the first rung of my income ladder quite yet, 00:23:01.580 |
And then, when I'm 56, I would repeat that process, 00:23:05.060 |
and when I'm 57, I would repeat that process. 00:23:11.380 |
I would have this runway of fixed income assets 00:23:19.360 |
and I would know that I was somewhat insulated 00:23:24.300 |
for at least the first 10 years of my retirement. 00:23:38.500 |
I find the behavioral aspects of having the individual bonds, 00:23:56.020 |
We typically direct deposit it on a monthly basis, 00:24:04.740 |
and it helps prevent some of the behavioral challenges 00:24:09.380 |
Now, I know most of you here are very disciplined, 00:24:16.180 |
You may be much more disciplined than the average person. 00:24:25.140 |
is people that come in the year before they retire. 00:24:31.820 |
we have to build out all of those rungs at once, 00:24:34.580 |
versus if they had started about 10 years out, 00:24:40.100 |
So, I don't know if that's the most actionable item 00:24:45.980 |
if I was looking at transitioning my portfolio 00:24:51.420 |
- Oh, this is a fantastic question we just got. 00:25:04.140 |
they may be helpful tools for retirement planning. 00:25:07.100 |
If someone is looking to purchase an annuity themselves, 00:25:11.500 |
they're buying the right type of product for them. 00:25:21.220 |
I don't know if blueprint income is still around. 00:25:34.940 |
if you've seen Stan, the annuity man's resources, 00:25:41.340 |
He has a lot of books out there on annuities, 00:25:47.060 |
And then, I believe there's just some simple websites, 00:25:52.660 |
Now, I don't know if that one has since sold. 00:26:03.180 |
So, a lot of those websites, you can run quotes, 00:26:06.980 |
and your phone number in, and if you're like me, 00:26:12.780 |
so you have to be a little bit cautious about that. 00:26:15.660 |
We work with organizations that work with fee-only advisors. 00:26:34.100 |
and we also have a commissioned annuity agent, 00:26:45.040 |
If you've got questions for Dana, write them down, 00:26:47.020 |
and Christine Bennis, she will collect them from you. 00:26:55.260 |
What are your thoughts on MLPs in a retirement portfolio? 00:27:07.820 |
I haven't seen MLPs in portfolios in a long time, 00:27:12.680 |
so I did spend a few years at Merrill Lynch in my career, 00:27:20.120 |
they were very high interest-bearing investments 00:27:36.560 |
When we look at different retirement income approaches, 00:27:55.560 |
and simply lived off the interest and the dividends. 00:28:08.160 |
where you only lived off the interest and dividends, 00:28:10.960 |
that could be a place where something like an MLP 00:28:22.960 |
I love index funds, so they're not my cup of tea. 00:28:29.440 |
All right, here's a question I get all the time 00:28:32.800 |
when working with folks, and I would imagine you do, too, 00:28:35.560 |
when you're working with someone for the first time. 00:28:43.640 |
or more slowly moving towards a simple portfolio? 00:28:51.440 |
Some of it depends on if it's in taxable accounts 00:29:17.880 |
To learn more about Master Limited Partnerships, 00:29:34.800 |
And then we have a similar question with respect to 00:29:46.160 |
and again, this goes back to ripping off the Band-Aid or not, 00:29:57.080 |
And again, not specific investment advice, folks. 00:30:01.960 |
So one, I'd have to know, of that $1 million, 00:30:06.160 |
what portion of your portfolio is that, right? 00:30:12.400 |
It could be all your portfolio in a single stock. 00:30:15.480 |
And so if it's all your portfolio in a single stock 00:30:18.800 |
and this million dollars is what you have to live off 00:30:22.700 |
I'd be much more prone to rip off the Band-Aid 00:30:25.300 |
and say, let's reduce that single stock risk. 00:30:32.720 |
Like, you could lose your entire life savings. 00:30:42.600 |
But if that $1 million was part of a $10 million portfolio 00:30:46.560 |
or you had substantial social security or pension 00:30:59.920 |
It basically comes down to what is your ability 00:31:07.460 |
then certainly that million dollars going to zero 00:31:13.720 |
I think about someone that I worked with not too long ago. 00:31:18.980 |
So effectively, they hadn't really worked a day 00:31:20.820 |
in their life, couldn't really generate their own income, 00:31:23.740 |
and they had 90% of their net worth in one stock. 00:31:26.940 |
Now, it was a great stock, don't get me wrong, 00:31:38.020 |
All right, gosh, here's another great annuity question. 00:31:45.500 |
What are the pros and cons of purchasing a SPIA, 00:31:49.460 |
that's effectively you're gonna buy yourself a pension, 00:31:55.180 |
versus waiting until age 80 to buy that SPIA, 00:32:08.940 |
- Well, technically, in the immediate annuities, 00:32:11.540 |
you are participating in something called mortality credits. 00:32:15.060 |
Sounds, you know, it's not an exciting thing to talk about. 00:32:21.900 |
but there is a point where you get essentially 00:32:29.140 |
I seem to remember at a conference, an industry conference, 00:32:35.620 |
So it is possible that there could be a benefit 00:32:39.240 |
to waiting a few more years before you purchase that SPIA, 00:32:45.500 |
The insurance nerds will have those statistics 00:32:57.260 |
in some of the things other speakers have talked about. 00:33:08.760 |
And so you know the value of your assets today. 00:33:20.060 |
And so I can say, you know, it's a better time 00:33:33.820 |
You have to base that decision on your situation 00:33:37.020 |
and what is really appropriate for you today, 00:33:45.000 |
and curious how this shows up in your practice. 00:34:02.040 |
when people do bring their adult children in. 00:34:05.020 |
We've had meetings where we set up Zoom calls 00:34:14.840 |
the children are gonna care about you, right? 00:34:18.840 |
They're gonna care just as much as you care about them. 00:34:22.600 |
And most children in a healthy functioning family 00:34:31.440 |
I think it can be really useful to have a family meeting 00:34:35.360 |
and have someone walk through the whole thing 00:34:40.680 |
that you're gonna be able to take care of yourself. 00:34:43.840 |
In a unhealthy family dynamic, that could backfire. 00:34:47.840 |
And so it's hard because I think you know your family, 00:34:57.560 |
And so you're gonna have to weigh all of that out 00:35:03.120 |
Absent any sort of spendthrift considerations, 00:35:08.000 |
We don't know when ill health is gonna show up, 00:35:10.520 |
so being bread prepared helps you in that situation. 00:35:26.800 |
had dementia onset at a relatively early age, right? 00:35:40.520 |
So we don't know when ill health is gonna show up, 00:35:43.240 |
so doing that planning sooner, that helps manage that risk. 00:35:46.240 |
All right, we've got lots of more great questions 00:35:57.960 |
So since you do that in your firm, let's talk about that. 00:36:03.560 |
about what type of specific bonds you invest in 00:36:08.960 |
- Well, treasuries, munis, CDs, agencies, not corporates. 00:36:17.960 |
we will use bullet shares, which is a package 00:36:20.040 |
of corporate bonds that all mature in the same year. 00:36:31.400 |
we may be building that portion of the bond ladder 00:36:38.260 |
Sometimes it's national munis if they're in a no state tax, 00:36:47.080 |
And then agencies and treasuries and CDs would be our go-tos 00:37:03.180 |
And so then it will just depend on where we're gonna get 00:37:08.760 |
The fixed income market can be far more complex 00:37:11.400 |
than the stock market, and so it can vary from day to day. 00:37:14.840 |
One day you might get a higher yield than an agency, 00:37:19.040 |
It really can vary depending on where the bond market 00:37:23.000 |
- Practical question, what do I do with all the funds 00:37:38.360 |
I don't know because I don't know what those funds are. 00:37:47.480 |
Some 401(k) plans have unique investment options 00:37:52.640 |
And in the past decade, that may not be true today, 00:37:57.200 |
but we could earn a higher yield in those stable value funds 00:38:00.280 |
than by building out a fixed income bond ladder. 00:38:03.360 |
And so that was a reason to leave a large portion 00:38:08.140 |
to take advantage of some of those investment options. 00:38:20.540 |
if they have the self-directed brokerage option. 00:38:26.880 |
it's usually either a Schwab or Fidelity brokerage account, 00:38:41.060 |
That can happen at any time during retirement. 00:38:46.320 |
We just have a client that got a notice of this happening. 00:38:49.720 |
He does have a self-directed brokerage account. 00:38:52.080 |
In their case, they're gonna allow all the investments 00:38:56.560 |
to transfer in kind to the new brokerage firm 00:38:59.520 |
with the 401(k) so they won't have to liquidate them, 00:39:08.400 |
or we would need to know to actually answer that question. 00:39:15.080 |
a 401(k) requires its own required minimum distribution. 00:39:20.640 |
it will require its own required minimum distribution 00:39:25.520 |
you could take the RMD, consolidate the RMD amount 00:39:30.640 |
But you can't take the 401(k) RMD out of an IRA. 00:39:34.280 |
So if you don't want that level of complexity, 00:39:39.320 |
I've also seen cases where 401(k)s will have restrictions 00:39:49.720 |
on a monthly basis to replicate your paycheck, 00:39:53.560 |
or sometimes they tack on administration fees. 00:39:56.280 |
So all of those things would have to be considered. 00:40:06.440 |
you may be looking at better credit protection 00:40:08.360 |
in that account, but again, it does vary state by state. 00:40:10.640 |
So you can speak with an attorney in your state 00:40:12.480 |
to figure out just how much credit protection 00:40:14.120 |
you might be losing if you move from that ERISA plan, 00:40:26.240 |
unrealized capital loss in my investment account 00:40:37.020 |
- I think Mike Piper talked about mental health. 00:40:45.220 |
So if the company went bankrupt, I mean, that's hard, right? 00:40:58.000 |
and I do with it exactly what I would do with the clients. 00:41:03.300 |
that I do horrible things with and it never works out. 00:41:15.240 |
And so you're sitting on this large capital loss. 00:41:33.400 |
that a mental health professional might be appropriate. 00:41:42.040 |
tax treatment of accounts by the amount that's in them, 00:41:57.620 |
how much you have in each of those account types? 00:41:59.460 |
- Well, it's interesting 'cause most of the folks we see 00:42:02.880 |
are at the tail end of that decision-making process, right? 00:42:05.740 |
They're getting ready to live off their acorns. 00:42:19.220 |
usually with the diversification of account types. 00:42:31.500 |
sometimes two million, all in a tax-deferred account. 00:42:34.420 |
Usually it was a 401(k) or employer plan and nothing else. 00:42:39.940 |
And so there is not a lot of flexibility there. 00:42:45.740 |
There's not a lot of tax planning opportunities. 00:42:48.380 |
And so I do think as you're saving along the way, 00:42:53.860 |
buckets of both tax-deferred and taxable accounts 00:43:04.620 |
because it is thinking about that worst case, 00:43:09.980 |
should I be thinking about splitting my assets 00:43:23.860 |
who wanna keep their assets across multiple custodians 00:43:27.820 |
just in case something were to happen at the custodial level. 00:43:37.380 |
I think the level of security in our financial institutions 00:44:02.540 |
And the other thing I encourage folks to think about 00:44:10.380 |
because you wanna maintain that credit protection, 00:44:13.140 |
it's got some good investment options in there, 00:44:16.100 |
across two different investment accounts anyway. 00:44:48.660 |
is what's showing up on your tax return each year is a 1099. 00:44:54.380 |
I think they draw $11,000 a month out of their portfolio, 00:45:04.900 |
So they're able to qualify for the healthcare tax credits, 00:45:08.620 |
even though they have a substantial portfolio 00:45:11.200 |
and they're able to have that $11,000 a month cashflow 00:45:26.220 |
- Dana, thank you so much for answering all these questions. 00:45:37.800 |
You make people like me better with your questions. 00:45:46.560 |
It was always a member of the Boglehead community 00:45:48.880 |
that would reach out with corrections to my articles, 00:45:54.200 |
And you may laugh, someone asks, didn't that annoy you?