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I love helping you answer all the toughest questions about life, money, and so much 00:00:08.040 |
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Hello, and welcome to another episode of All The Hacks, a show about upgrading 00:01:45.080 |
life, money, and travel all while spending less and saving more. 00:01:49.040 |
I'm Chris Hutchins, and I'm on my own quest to find every hack there is. 00:01:54.120 |
And today I'm talking to Morgan Housel, author of the fantastic bestselling 00:01:59.360 |
book, The Psychology of Money, Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and 00:02:04.280 |
Happiness. We'll be talking about behavioral finance, investing, dealing 00:02:08.320 |
with risk, and approaches you can take to be more productive with your 00:02:11.480 |
money. Morgan is a partner at the Collaborative Fund and a former 00:02:15.200 |
columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal. 00:02:17.760 |
He's a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of 00:02:21.600 |
American Business Editors and Writers and a winner of The New York Times 00:02:25.000 |
Sidney Award. And before we jump in, if you're enjoying the show, I'd 00:02:30.120 |
If you could either pick your favorite episode and share it with a friend or 00:02:33.840 |
leave a five-star review in the podcast app, I would really appreciate it. 00:02:43.320 |
All opinions expressed by Chris and his guests are solely their own opinions 00:02:47.240 |
and do not reflect the opinion of Wealthfront. 00:02:49.760 |
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied 00:02:57.520 |
Thanks for having me, Chris. Happy to be here. 00:02:59.800 |
So you've been writing columns, articles, blog posts about money and 00:03:05.760 |
What about the psychology of money led you to write an entire book this time? 00:03:10.680 |
What actually got me to write the book was just the realization that I had 00:03:13.880 |
accumulated enough stories, enough material to fill out a book. 00:03:19.560 |
It took 10 or 15 years of casual observing and reading about a bunch of 00:03:24.080 |
things that led me to find what I thought were the most important parts 00:03:27.880 |
about how people think about money and kind of how I've always thought about 00:03:31.320 |
this. Not always, but the main way that I've written, not just written, but 00:03:34.880 |
thought about and researched behavioral finance is through the lens of other 00:03:38.440 |
industries. And the reason that is, if I take you back to when I started 00:03:41.960 |
writing about finance, which was 2008, which of course is when the world fell 00:03:46.080 |
apart, the financial crisis, everything was breaking and crumbling down around 00:03:49.440 |
us. And my early years of becoming a financial writer, I wanted to answer the 00:03:53.560 |
question, why did people do the things that they did during the housing bubble 00:03:59.440 |
Why did they, why did people take on so much debt? 00:04:01.800 |
Why did they make all these dumb, crazy decisions that blew the world to 00:04:06.600 |
And I realized as years went on, the answer to those questions could not be 00:04:12.040 |
found in a finance textbook or an economics textbook. 00:04:15.560 |
You could not explain why people did what they did if you were just looking at 00:04:19.360 |
finance or thinking through the lens and the frameworks and the theories of 00:04:23.000 |
finance, just the answers weren't there, but you could find clues like these, 00:04:28.120 |
like tangential clues about why people did what they did. 00:04:30.640 |
If you were thinking about psychology and sociology and political science and 00:04:34.960 |
biology and neurology, like all these things that had nothing to do with 00:04:38.240 |
finance could actually explain why people did the things that they did. 00:04:42.360 |
Things like sociology, like keeping up with the Joneses or like, you know, 00:04:45.560 |
your brother-in-law buys a big house, so now you got to go buy a big house. 00:04:48.520 |
Finance can't explain that, but sociology can. 00:04:50.920 |
So to me, that just started this idea that money is not the study of finance. 00:04:56.240 |
It's a study of how people behave, like how people behave with money. 00:04:59.520 |
And since it's a study of behavior, you can learn so much about it through the 00:05:05.560 |
And so I spent the huge majority of my time, I almost never read finance books 00:05:10.320 |
I read books about all kinds of different topics, just trying to answer the 00:05:13.720 |
question, like what, how do people respond and behave around fear and greed and 00:05:18.480 |
risk and uncertainty, and just trying to piece together little, little bits and 00:05:24.520 |
And so I just did that for many years, more than a decade before I felt like I 00:05:28.320 |
had enough to throw it all together into a book. 00:05:33.840 |
When I was in college, my wife and I actually went to college together and she 00:05:37.880 |
had a major in finance and all of a sudden she was like, wait, finance is all 00:05:41.720 |
about, and I remember specifically talking, taking the fundamentals of 00:05:45.120 |
futures and options markets with her as a course in college. 00:05:47.920 |
And she was like, this isn't what I, like, I was really interested in how 00:05:52.400 |
I'm not interested in, you know, the Black-Scholes model for pricing options. 00:05:56.160 |
And so that actually, I think if your book was around, she could have taken a 00:06:00.080 |
different path, but she got out of finance pretty quickly because it was not framed 00:06:06.280 |
So that's actually a really good point because the behavioral side of finance, 00:06:10.440 |
the psychology side of finance is really hard to teach. 00:06:13.200 |
You can't like, even to really smart people, it's hard to teach. 00:06:15.800 |
So what tends to be taught in finance in colleges and whatnot is the part that is 00:06:22.200 |
There's all the formulas and the data and the charts, the things that you can 00:06:26.560 |
The softer side of finance is just, it's much more mushy. 00:06:29.920 |
It's much more like, like answering the question, like, how do you become a good 00:06:38.560 |
It might be the most important topic of your entire life, but you can't summarize 00:06:43.800 |
And what, this is true for a lot of disciplines, like what is taught in school 00:06:47.440 |
are the things that are able to be taught, like the things that you can teach. 00:06:50.200 |
But there's a lot of things that you just can't teach. 00:06:51.960 |
Like, like how do you teach someone to respond well around greed and fear? 00:06:55.520 |
Tough thing to, to, to teach that in a way that you're going to be able to test 00:07:01.520 |
So that's, it's, it's actually, it's, it's a great point that you and your wife 00:07:05.320 |
brought up about, you know, what is, how finance is typically taught versus what 00:07:11.720 |
And, and there's so much in the book about how to start thinking about different 00:07:15.720 |
things before going kind of deep on a few of those. 00:07:18.640 |
I'd love to talk a little bit about the ultimate goal of learning and mastering 00:07:23.320 |
I think, you know, you have a pretty good framework for what that unlocks in life 00:07:27.560 |
and, and kind of what the highest form of wealth is. 00:07:29.920 |
And I'd love to hear you kind of talk a little bit about that. 00:07:32.400 |
To me, the highest form of wealth is you wake up every morning and you're going to 00:07:36.560 |
say, you're going to say that you can do whatever you want today, whatever you 00:07:40.440 |
Even if most of the time, what you want to do is wake up and go to work and be a 00:07:46.040 |
You're doing it at the company you want for as long as you want. 00:07:50.000 |
You can work with the coworkers that you want. 00:07:51.600 |
Having a sense of independence and autonomy, being on your own terms, owning 00:07:55.480 |
your time, owning your schedule, having control over your schedule. 00:08:00.920 |
And it's important because everyone knows, I mean, this is so, this is 00:08:04.800 |
virtually cliche at this point, but you get used to things, cars, homes, it's not 00:08:10.880 |
I like nice cars as much as anyone else, but people get accustomed to them. 00:08:14.240 |
The joy that you get from them is going to wear for virtually anyone. 00:08:17.920 |
People massively overestimate how much joy you're going to get from stuff. 00:08:23.280 |
But owning your time, owning your schedule, having independence and autonomy is 00:08:27.400 |
something that I think will give you a permanent level of lasting happiness. 00:08:31.440 |
Or I think a better, like a little bit of nuance here is that it's not that having 00:08:36.240 |
independence gives you, makes you happier, is that it makes you less miserable. 00:08:40.360 |
Like people who don't control their time just have more bad days than people who 00:08:45.360 |
So to the extent that people can use money and wealth and savings to gain 00:08:49.840 |
autonomy in their life, that to me is like the highest form of wealth. 00:08:55.200 |
One is that for a lot of people, the amount of wealth that you need to gain 00:08:59.880 |
some level of independence and autonomy is a lot lower than I think what most 00:09:06.080 |
And the definition of rich is different from for everyone throughout the world, 00:09:10.120 |
different, different, different people, different generations, but having just a 00:09:13.880 |
level of savings so that, for example, if you were to lose your job, you can wait 00:09:18.080 |
to find a good job rather than having to take the first one that you can possibly 00:09:22.120 |
find, that's a level of independence that can make your life substantially better. 00:09:27.000 |
Having just enough savings that if you have a medical emergency, it's not going 00:09:30.160 |
to ruin you, which for whom it does millions of Americans every year, that's 00:09:35.960 |
So like, obviously independence is a spectrum. 00:09:38.520 |
A lot of people when they think of independence, they think, they think the 00:09:42.160 |
fire movement, retire early, quit your job, go like on a road trip around the 00:09:45.920 |
country, and that's one level, but there's a big spectrum below that, that can lead 00:09:50.040 |
to a lot of happiness of just being in control of your time. 00:09:52.840 |
And the other way that people talk about this is of course, like the well-known 00:09:55.840 |
phrase, F you money, like so much money that you can just say F you to people who 00:10:00.520 |
That's one level of this that gets talked about. 00:10:02.840 |
And I think there's like a more polite version of that. 00:10:06.280 |
I call it like, please leave me alone money of just like, you know, if you have 00:10:09.400 |
enough money, you just, you don't have to deal with, with the, with a lot of the 00:10:14.760 |
You can just like, look, I, I'm not, I don't, I don't, I don't report to anyone. 00:10:18.360 |
I'm not on anyone else's, you know, quarterly performance metrics. 00:10:22.280 |
You can just kind of live the life that you want and pursue the creative ventures 00:10:25.240 |
that you want in a way that I think is really underestimated in life. 00:10:29.840 |
I think in today's environment, I hear lots of people say, gosh, you shouldn't 00:10:34.120 |
It's, it's the interest rates are so low that you actually forget that the value 00:10:39.000 |
or, or the kind of return on that money that's sitting in cash can be something 00:10:43.480 |
really, really significant if you are able to use it to turn down a job, or you're 00:10:48.000 |
able to use it to work less hours on your hourly job and pursue something you're 00:10:53.040 |
So I'm a big fan of using cash to buy yourself freedom and treating that freedom 00:10:58.880 |
as, as a similar return, though, though, very different from the kind of return 00:11:03.360 |
that's more tangible of investment returns and that kind of stuff. 00:11:06.800 |
The people look at the return on cash and they say, look, 0.1% interest. 00:11:12.560 |
And then once they hit, whether it's next month or five years from now, once they 00:11:16.080 |
hit some sort of life emergency where they need that cash and they realize that 00:11:19.520 |
cash is the oxygen of independence, like you don't think about it until you need 00:11:23.840 |
And then when you need it, it's the most important thing in the world. 00:11:27.600 |
And so I think once every 10 years, at least everybody, everybody, once every 10 00:11:32.720 |
years, we'll have something happens in their life where they think, where they 00:11:36.480 |
realize, oh, I'm so glad I had this buffer of cash that I didn't know what I was 00:11:39.920 |
going to do with, or, oh my gosh, I wish I'd like, things would have been so much 00:11:43.680 |
better if I had just saved a little bit of cash. 00:11:45.360 |
Everyone will deal with that once every 10 years. 00:11:47.600 |
And during the other 99.9% of the time, your cash feels like it's a drag on your 00:11:52.960 |
And then, you know, one week, every 10 years, it's the most important thing that 00:11:56.560 |
completely transforms your life because it gives you options over your time, over 00:12:00.080 |
your control of about where you, what you're going to do and where you have to 00:12:04.800 |
So building up that cash, you know, there's, there's lots of ways to do that. 00:12:08.640 |
And, you know, it ultimately comes down to having more money and, you know, you 00:12:14.320 |
And by earn more, you could work or make investments that grow. 00:12:17.920 |
I personally think that saving is much easier to focus on. 00:12:22.160 |
It's totally in your control, but it seems like everyone I talk to is focused on 00:12:26.880 |
making more money and usually making more money from investments and seeking high 00:12:31.520 |
Why do you think it's so hard for people to save more and spend less? 00:12:36.640 |
I think, look, both sides of the equation are really important. 00:12:39.920 |
Like, of course, earning more and like proper investing and like long-term 00:12:45.680 |
But I think the side of the equation, which is just, you know, like all of wealth 00:12:52.800 |
And the money outside of the equation is just more in your control. 00:12:55.920 |
Like to double your money in the stock market over the next five years is doable, 00:13:01.760 |
Like people who are new to investing might think that's crazy because it's been so 00:13:05.600 |
But most of the time, like doubling your money in the stock market takes a lot of 00:13:08.960 |
work and a lot of patience and a lot of just like sticking it through. 00:13:11.760 |
But lowering your expenses is so much more in your control because you have no 00:13:16.320 |
control of what the stock market is going to do next. 00:13:18.400 |
But you do have control over how big your ego is in terms of how much you need to 00:13:23.520 |
flash and show the world how much money you have through the cars you're driving 00:13:27.040 |
and the clothes you're wearing and the vacations that you're posting on Instagram. 00:13:30.160 |
Controlling that side is so much more in your control than assuming that you can 00:13:35.120 |
have any control of what the stock market is going to do next. 00:13:37.440 |
So it's just it's not that one side is more important than the other. 00:13:40.560 |
It's just if you're looking at the odds of success and you're trying to find the 00:13:44.640 |
highest odds of like, "What's the lever I can pull that when I pull it, it's 00:13:49.280 |
For the huge majority of people, it's on the spending side of the equation. 00:13:52.720 |
And that's how they can really move the needle in their life. 00:13:54.800 |
And, you know, things that are more in your control are just so much more valuable. 00:13:58.160 |
Like the expected value of something like that is so much more valuable than for 00:14:02.720 |
most people to try to increase their income by a significant amount. 00:14:09.200 |
One is what we talked about before, which is that when most people gain more income, 00:14:12.480 |
they instantly want to say, "How can I spend this?" 00:14:14.480 |
Because their view of money is the sole purpose of money is to buy stuff, 00:14:18.480 |
which seems like a really rational statement. 00:14:25.200 |
And even when I say it, I'm kind of like, "Yeah, of course, that's what it's for." 00:14:27.920 |
And so most people stop right there and they say, "Well, if I just got $1,000 to raise, 00:14:31.680 |
I'm going to go spend $1,000 because that's what money is for." 00:14:34.240 |
But I think once you view money as, "Oh, actually, this can give you independence 00:14:37.680 |
if you save it and invest it, and this gives you wealth. 00:14:42.320 |
Now when life throws a curveball at you, you're going to be okay." 00:14:45.600 |
Then you start thinking about it a little bit different. 00:14:47.760 |
And so if you don't have that little nuance on what money can do for you 00:14:51.440 |
and the independence side of it, it makes savings much harder. 00:14:54.160 |
Because you're saving money and you're saying, "What's the point of this? 00:14:56.880 |
What am I saving it for if I'm not going to spend it?" 00:15:00.720 |
Once you view it as, "I'm saving this so I can have control over my time, 00:15:05.600 |
then I think it becomes quite a bit easier to save. 00:15:07.840 |
So that's always the lens that I viewed it through when saving for myself. 00:15:10.400 |
- Is there anything you've learned about psychology that helps people 00:15:14.160 |
who have gone through that exercise of, "Yeah, I do want my freedom," 00:15:17.760 |
but struggle with stopping themselves from wanting more, 00:15:21.200 |
stopping themselves from wanting the nicer car, the nicer house, or whatever it is? 00:15:25.680 |
Is there any tactics that people can use to stop that feeling? 00:15:29.120 |
- No, I don't know if there's any specific tactics. 00:15:31.840 |
It's like the most natural thing in the world. 00:15:33.520 |
And even myself, who writes a book about this topic, 00:15:36.640 |
of course, it's tempting for my wife and I to say, 00:15:40.160 |
"Hey, we gained a little bit of income from this or that. 00:15:46.320 |
I think it's the most natural thing in the world. 00:15:48.240 |
It's natural from a social level to try to show your friends and your co-workers 00:15:54.000 |
and your spouse or your potential future spouses 00:16:01.200 |
Take your peacock feathers and flay them up and be like, 00:16:07.120 |
And even if you're not thinking about it through the social sense, 00:16:10.080 |
the idea that nicer stuff will make you happier is true to some extent. 00:16:14.160 |
We just overestimate how much it's going to be true. 00:16:21.520 |
are just the ones who are just totally comfortable in themselves and who they are 00:16:25.840 |
and don't feel a lot of obligation or urge to try to gain the social ladder. 00:16:30.400 |
They're comfortable with their friends and their spouses or their significant others. 00:16:35.520 |
And those people love them and appreciate them. 00:16:37.440 |
And they just don't feel that much need to climb the social ladder. 00:16:41.440 |
Those are the people that can really gain total control over their financial lives 00:16:44.960 |
because they're not on just constant hamster wheel of trying to keep up with the Joneses. 00:16:53.360 |
because there are a lot of Joneses and some of them are extremely wealthy. 00:16:59.040 |
there's always someone who's making more than you. 00:17:03.280 |
and then you're looking up to the person who's making 100. 00:17:05.680 |
And then once you make 100, you're looking up to the guy who's making 200. 00:17:16.000 |
the minimum wage is about half a million dollars per year, 00:17:21.520 |
Like in the United States, you make half a million dollars a year. 00:17:24.880 |
You're like, "Congratulations, you made it. You're rich." 00:17:27.840 |
But I guarantee you that every minimum wage baseball player 00:17:31.680 |
in professional baseball does not consider themselves rich 00:17:35.280 |
because there's people on their team who make $10 million a year. 00:17:37.840 |
And the people who make $10 million might not feel that great 00:17:40.000 |
because they're looking up to the players who make $30 million. 00:17:42.640 |
And the guy who makes $30 million is looking at the hedge fund manager 00:17:46.800 |
And the hedge fund manager who makes $500 million is looking at Jeff Bezos. 00:17:53.600 |
Like I use this quote in the book of a friend of mine who goes to Vegas every year. 00:17:57.520 |
And one year, he walked in and he asked the dealer. 00:17:59.920 |
He said, "Hey, what games do you play, Mr. Dealer? 00:18:06.560 |
He said, "The only game that you can win in Vegas is not playing. 00:18:09.680 |
That's the only way that you can win in Vegas is to like walk out of the casino." 00:18:13.200 |
And I feel like it's the same with that, like climbing the social ladder. 00:18:18.480 |
So people are like, "I'm on this mission to win the game." 00:18:21.360 |
It's like, no, you're never going to win the game. 00:18:24.240 |
So when you realize the game never ends and it can't be beat, 00:18:27.040 |
then for myself, it's different for everyone. 00:18:29.040 |
But for myself, it's like, well, if you can't beat the game, I don't want to play the game. 00:18:32.160 |
I'm going to try hard as I can not to play the game. 00:18:34.640 |
That's not a tip or a trick or a tactic in how to do it. 00:18:38.400 |
It's just a little bit different way of thinking about it. 00:18:40.960 |
And I think it's such an ingrained part of human nature 00:18:43.920 |
that it's never going to be the point where the majority of people will be able to achieve it. 00:18:48.320 |
If you're mindful about the forces that are pushing you away from happiness with your money, 00:18:52.560 |
maybe it's a little bit easier to wrap your head around. 00:18:54.400 |
Do you think people can go too far to the other end? 00:18:59.440 |
I was actually in a documentary about the FIRE movement called "Playing with Fire." 00:19:04.320 |
And I remember someone mentioning in the process of talking with lots of people that 00:19:09.360 |
there's some people that like to wash their tinfoil, right? 00:19:11.360 |
Like some extreme things to save small amounts of money. 00:19:14.720 |
And I sometimes ask, and I've asked myself this question, it's like, 00:19:18.080 |
"Can you go too far in that direction and end up with all this money that gives you all this 00:19:22.320 |
freedom, but you spent so many years not actually enjoying life? 00:19:30.080 |
And I think the biggest one is if you create this incredible frugal lifestyle, 00:19:35.120 |
and it turns off your friends and families and significant others 00:19:39.280 |
in a way that they start rejecting you for it. 00:19:43.680 |
They might be being honest with themselves when they say, 00:19:47.360 |
"I would be happy living off of $4,000 a year, whatever it is." 00:19:51.760 |
And they're honest with themselves, but their friends aren't. 00:19:58.160 |
And then all of a sudden, this other part of your life that was probably the single 00:20:02.480 |
most important part of your life, the people around you, 00:20:04.560 |
your friends and families that you love start rejecting you for it. 00:20:07.280 |
I've seen that happen a number of times, and it's devastating to the people. 00:20:10.560 |
Because they're like, "Look, I was honest that I could live this life and be happy. 00:20:14.080 |
But these people who I loved weren't on the same page. 00:20:18.880 |
That's the biggest risk in these things is that you create an extreme plan that you're 00:20:24.560 |
And it's a hard thing to wrap your head around. 00:20:27.280 |
And I think there are also a lot of people that go down a path that is fun for a while, 00:20:33.680 |
It's fun to be super frugal for 12 months, but after three or four years, you're kind 00:20:38.400 |
But it's become part of your identity, especially when there's a name behind it. 00:20:48.000 |
And then to break off from the tribe is really difficult. 00:20:50.640 |
So once it becomes an ingrained part of your identity, I think people find it hard to move 00:20:55.360 |
on from, even if they're ready to move on from it. 00:20:58.000 |
No matter how deep you go down the path of saving and frugality, I think at the end of 00:21:02.720 |
the day, you talked earlier, it's two sides of an equation. 00:21:06.480 |
The money comes in, the money goes out, that's what you save. 00:21:09.280 |
So I do still think it's important to think about what you do with the money you save. 00:21:13.440 |
And when it comes to investing, I like to contrast athletes and investors. 00:21:17.280 |
And it got me thinking, I have a lot of friends who played sports in college. 00:21:21.200 |
They all knew it was really hard to be a pro athlete. 00:21:25.760 |
And I talked to those same people who know that most active investors underperform, and 00:21:31.840 |
yet all of them are always trying to invest and beat the market and pick stocks and compare 00:21:37.840 |
Why are people so rational in some areas and totally irrational when it comes to their 00:21:45.600 |
I think there's a really easy answer to that question. 00:21:47.840 |
And that's in professional sports, it's impossible to make it to the NFL by luck. 00:21:55.200 |
You have to be physically skilled, legitimately skilled to make it there. 00:21:58.720 |
But it is possible and happens all the time that people can be successful in the stock 00:22:04.880 |
So the fact that it's even possible is why people go into it. 00:22:11.600 |
They opened up a Robin Hood account and they doubled their money in six weeks. 00:22:15.280 |
And they think to themselves, look, this is so easy. 00:22:17.840 |
And not only is it easy, but I have the skill. 00:22:21.840 |
But if they know only 10% of people can beat the market, everyone thinks they're part of 00:22:27.040 |
And especially young men are the most susceptible to assume, even if they know the odds. 00:22:34.080 |
Like a lot of people think they're being rational because they're like, oh yeah, I know the 00:22:37.120 |
Only 10% of investors who try to beat the market can do it. 00:22:40.800 |
And since it's possible to be in that group by luck alone, you have a lot more people 00:22:46.400 |
The other aspect of this is that if you're trying to get into professional sports, it's 00:22:55.200 |
But the huge majority of investors who I've talked to, active investors, particularly 00:22:59.440 |
if you're not a professional investor, you're just an individual investor, don't accurately 00:23:05.200 |
And if you really ask them, how have you performed? 00:23:08.160 |
A lot of them, if they're honest about it, they don't really know. 00:23:10.560 |
They're not auditing their annual returns and comparing it to the appropriate benchmark 00:23:16.000 |
A lot of them do it and maybe they think they're outperforming, but if they're honest with 00:23:19.200 |
themselves on an after-tax basis, they're actually not. 00:23:21.760 |
Or they're willfully blind to it because they're afraid to accurately calculate it. 00:23:26.480 |
And in the meantime, they like what they're doing. 00:23:30.000 |
If you like actively investing, even if you're underperforming, but you love it, you like 00:23:34.880 |
the strategy, you like the hunt, you like the analysis. 00:23:41.360 |
But it's much easier to fool yourself that you can be a great investor than it would 00:23:46.960 |
be in sports, where it's just obvious, clear as day, you either made it or you didn't. 00:23:50.960 |
It seems like with every business, you get to a certain size and the cracks start to 00:23:56.320 |
Things that you used to do in a day are taking a week and you have too many manual processes 00:24:03.520 |
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And how do you help people who, you know, like that, they're having fun, they might 00:27:03.260 |
be making some money, or losing lots of money, and help them understand why that might not 00:27:09.880 |
be the best long-term strategy if their goal is to pursue this independence and be more 00:27:17.760 |
This might be a disappointing answer, but I found that for the large majority of these 00:27:22.960 |
investors, you naturally end up on one side of the equation. 00:27:26.120 |
And once you're on that side of the equation, it's hard to convert you to the other side. 00:27:29.540 |
You know, that's not to say that's not true for everyone, but a lot of people, if you 00:27:32.560 |
are a hardcore active investor, the odds that you will ever be persuaded to go on to the 00:27:37.320 |
passive side, even if your returns are horrendous, are not that great. 00:27:41.120 |
I think for a lot of people, they're scratching, when they're actively investing, they're scratching 00:27:44.960 |
a natural itch that they have, and that itch needs to be scratched. 00:27:48.240 |
And if they were passively investing, they would have this itch that would drive them 00:27:52.720 |
And therefore, that's, so they're always going to do it. 00:27:54.200 |
If there is a way that, I've seen a lot of financial advisors do this, is they say, "Okay, 00:27:59.080 |
I know you have this itch that needs to be scratched, you need to trade, you need to 00:28:02.560 |
actively invest because that's part of your personality. 00:28:05.000 |
Can we put 70% of your net worth in a long-term diversified investing plan, and then you can 00:28:11.080 |
trade with 10, 20, 30% so that you can, look, you have this core that's going to, this is 00:28:16.960 |
kind of, you know, this is the big thrust that's going to get you into retirement, but 00:28:23.480 |
I think that's actually, like, if you're thinking about it rationally, that's the wrong thing 00:28:27.320 |
to do, because either one strategy works or it doesn't, so why are you going to straddle 00:28:32.600 |
But for a lot of investors, I think that's the right thing to do, because it keeps them 00:28:36.640 |
And rather than just getting too bored with their investments, they're like, "Look, I 00:28:39.960 |
still have this pocket where I can day trade and buy these stocks, and I feel great about 00:28:44.840 |
So, just giving them that outlet to scratch that itch, I think, is really important, and 00:28:47.640 |
probably the best way to try to, if you were to convert people from one side to the next. 00:28:51.600 |
But the other thing I would say here that's really important is, I'm not a passive zealot. 00:28:55.640 |
I'm not one of the people who says, "Everyone should index, and no one can beat the market, 00:29:01.520 |
Those investors exist, but I'm not one of them. 00:29:03.800 |
I've become much less judgmental as an investor over the last decade, when I just realized 00:29:08.920 |
everyone has different goals, different skills, different needs, different desires. 00:29:13.320 |
They view the world through a different lens. 00:29:14.800 |
Like, I view the world through the life that I've lived, and only through that lens. 00:29:19.080 |
It's the only world that I know is what I've seen. 00:29:21.160 |
And the world that I've seen is different from the world that you've seen, and the world 00:29:24.360 |
that you and I have seen is very different from different generations, people who live 00:29:29.540 |
So to say that there's one right way to invest is something that I probably used to believe, 00:29:34.200 |
but I've become much less judgmental as the years go on. 00:29:37.560 |
And you mentioned in the book a lot that people, even that might be similar, similar geography, 00:29:41.800 |
similar income, similar job, might be trying to play a different game. 00:29:44.880 |
They might be anticipating more money from inheritance. 00:29:47.960 |
They might be trying to earn some short-term money, or really focused on a different goal. 00:29:52.560 |
So it's interesting to hear how people compare themselves to people that might be in totally 00:30:01.580 |
There was a social aspect of wearing nicer clothes and trying to put the peacock feathers 00:30:07.800 |
When I was in college, when I was looking for a girlfriend, when I was looking for a 00:30:10.760 |
wife, when I was in that market, that was really important. 00:30:12.880 |
Now that I'm happily married and my wife loves me till death do us part, it's a lot less 00:30:17.880 |
But even myself, over the course of my relatively short life, the game has changed substantially 00:30:24.160 |
in terms of who I want to be, who I want to show the world that I am. 00:30:27.200 |
That has changed substantially in my own life. 00:30:29.360 |
So if it changes within your own life in a 15-year period, then think about people who 00:30:33.720 |
are different generations, people who live in different countries, different amounts 00:30:39.280 |
Everyone thinks about these things totally different. 00:30:41.340 |
The other thing I would say is a couple of years ago, I was in Australia where they hadn't, 00:30:44.360 |
at the time, they hadn't had a recession in 29 years. 00:30:49.360 |
So virtually every adult had never seen a recession, ever. 00:30:54.360 |
And then you compare that to the United States where 2001, 2008, we had these massive recessions 00:31:03.260 |
And Australians, who of course, just as smart as us, have the same information as us, they're 00:31:07.840 |
the same people, they had a completely different view on what risk is. 00:31:13.000 |
And at the time, Americans were very cognizant of like, the world can fall apart at any moment, 00:31:20.000 |
And Australians didn't, just didn't have that view. 00:31:24.040 |
And it's not that we were right and they were wrong, that's not the right way to look at 00:31:28.720 |
It's just, we're equally smart people, the same people that have very different views 00:31:31.680 |
on the world just by the dumb luck of where we were born. 00:31:34.400 |
Yeah, do you think there's any way that people can start to, I don't know, force themselves 00:31:41.320 |
I know, anytime you're looking to start investing, you get often asked or find things on the 00:31:46.240 |
internet say, "Figure out whether you're comfortable with a 30% downturn." 00:31:50.400 |
And it's easy if you invested all of your money and that downturn happened and you got 00:31:56.840 |
But for many people, these things happen every 10 years or in Australia, every 30 years. 00:32:01.920 |
How can you start to understand your own tolerance for this before you see it? 00:32:08.360 |
I don't, I think realistically, you probably can't until you've done it because there's 00:32:14.040 |
It would be one thing if it was like, "Oh, you just need to know the formula, just go 00:32:17.600 |
read the book and then it'll tell you what to do." 00:32:20.240 |
But nobody knows who they are until they've been in the trenches. 00:32:24.200 |
No one understands their own unique personality. 00:32:26.360 |
And there are a lot of people who are a very calm personality, even like an even disposition, 00:32:33.160 |
they don't panic very much in life, but they've never experienced losing half their money 00:32:38.160 |
And when they do, they realize that's the trigger that'll make them lose their minds. 00:32:42.440 |
So even if you are very introspective about who you are in general, I don't think people 00:32:46.760 |
understand who they are financially until they've experienced some of these big declines. 00:32:52.320 |
And I've experienced 2008, I experienced March of 2020 last year, but there's a lot of things 00:32:57.300 |
financially that I haven't experienced as well. 00:32:59.800 |
I have not, and you have not, lived through a period of sustained high inflation that 00:33:09.400 |
So I can research that, I can try to be empathetic with people who lived through it, I can try 00:33:14.320 |
to put myself in their shoes at the time, but until I've lived through it, I can't reasonably 00:33:22.280 |
And I think if we're being honest, that's true for a lot of people. 00:33:25.080 |
Like virtually no one in the developed world, at least, had any idea how they would respond 00:33:33.800 |
It just wasn't something that was necessarily on our mind. 00:33:37.320 |
And I think a lot of people responded in ways that they wouldn't have fathomed before. 00:33:41.680 |
You know, it was completely normal before last February. 00:33:44.960 |
If you're on a plane and someone's coughing, 99% of people, not a big deal. 00:33:50.680 |
Now going forward, if someone coughs on a plane, people are going to lose their minds. 00:33:54.880 |
They're going to have a totally different view that they never would have considered 00:33:59.560 |
I'll give you one very extreme example of this, and I have to preface this with like, 00:34:05.520 |
There's a book called What We Knew, and it's a book interviewing German civilians on what 00:34:12.120 |
they knew during World War II, during when the Nazis were in power. 00:34:17.560 |
Not the guards at Auschwitz, the German civilians. 00:34:22.640 |
And there's this passage in the book where this German civilian said, "Look, when Hitler 00:34:25.180 |
came to power in 1933, the Germans were fully behind them. 00:34:29.000 |
We were like, rah, rah, like Hitler, this is great." 00:34:34.120 |
Can you explain why you were so excited about him?" 00:34:36.520 |
And the civilian said, "Look, in the 1920s, Germany lost everything. 00:34:45.240 |
And Hitler came along and said, 'I'll give you a job. 00:34:48.720 |
We're going to bring back German pride, et cetera, et cetera.' 00:34:51.040 |
And in that situation where people were so desperate for anything, they looked at him 00:34:57.320 |
And they're looking at this in hindsight and saying, "Look, when people are in a desperate 00:35:00.300 |
situation where they don't have any money, they lost all their jobs, they lost everything, 00:35:06.200 |
people will cling to things in that situation that they never would have imagined. 00:35:10.520 |
You'll cling to the craziest person that comes across if he's willing to give you a little 00:35:15.440 |
That's the most extreme example, but nobody knows what they're going to do or how they're 00:35:19.280 |
going to react in the heat of the moment when things are really uncertain, when you've lost 00:35:27.240 |
When things are calm and prosperous, people don't know how they're going to respond during 00:35:32.040 |
those heated moments until you've actually experienced it. 00:35:35.540 |
I think in the pandemic, I work at Wealthfront and we have a passively managed portfolio 00:35:40.280 |
and we have risk tolerance questions and we ask, "How are you going to feel if the portfolio 00:35:48.440 |
They say, "Well, if the market's down 20%, I'm going to buy more because it's on sale." 00:35:52.480 |
But one of the interesting things that happened during the pandemic was some people made the 00:35:59.560 |
And not because they didn't think the market was on sale, because it wasn't a 20% down. 00:36:04.760 |
It was a 20% down in the middle of a pandemic where some people are shouting from television 00:36:09.240 |
that the world could end and half the world could die and all of these extreme things. 00:36:15.040 |
And that feels very different than the academic exercise of "If something goes down 20%, what 00:36:21.480 |
And I personally think the media makes it even harder to know what to do because it's 00:36:28.280 |
So that, to me, was a great example of the risk tolerance questionnaire isn't sufficient 00:36:37.200 |
Because if you were to ask me, "Morgan, how would I feel if the market fell 30%?" 00:36:40.440 |
If you were to ask that question, when I'm trying to picture that, I imagine a world 00:36:46.000 |
where everything is exactly the same today, except stock prices are 30% cheaper. 00:36:51.000 |
And in that world, it seems like an opportunity. 00:36:53.320 |
Everything is the same except cheaper stock prices. 00:36:57.720 |
The reason the market falls 30% is because the banking system is about to collapse like 00:37:02.440 |
2008, where there's a pandemic that might kill your entire family. 00:37:05.920 |
And in that context, totally different scenario. 00:37:08.600 |
And that's why people are just, in general, pretty poor at forecasting the risk tolerance 00:37:13.880 |
and how they might behave during the next big decline. 00:37:16.680 |
You're getting major market declines just thinking of poor investment decisions, which 00:37:21.480 |
I think right now, there's this big rise of active trading. 00:37:24.480 |
And I'm sure you have opinions like I do about the gamification of investing and what that 00:37:32.080 |
But for people who are making decisions that end up being wrong, I think something I took 00:37:36.000 |
away from the book and I've seen in practice is that you just will be wrong. 00:37:41.680 |
And I think something that I'd love you to talk a little bit about is how can people 00:37:45.080 |
get comfortable with that concept, which is like, if you're a doctor, you don't want to 00:37:57.000 |
Obviously, if you're a pilot, then you have to be right 100% of the time. 00:38:01.160 |
You can't say, "I really botched this flight, but I got next time to come." 00:38:06.640 |
There's a thing that Benjamin Graham talked about in one of his books where he said, "Investors 00:38:10.120 |
need to understand the difference between a positive and a negative art." 00:38:13.640 |
And he said, "Investing in stocks was a positive art, because all you need to do to do well 00:38:20.040 |
If you pick 100 stocks and 80 of them suck, but five of them are the next Apple, the next 00:38:26.560 |
Amazon, the next Facebook, you're going to do incredible. 00:38:28.960 |
Even if 80% of the ones you picked go bankrupt. 00:38:33.080 |
He said, "Owning bonds is a negative art, because what you need to do to do well as 00:38:38.040 |
a bond investor is make sure that you don't own any of the bad ones. 00:38:41.400 |
Any of the bonds that are going to default, you just need to avoid all of those." 00:38:44.800 |
So it's important to realize, is what you're doing in life, and this applies to everything 00:38:48.560 |
in life, like careers and friends, is it a positive or a negative art? 00:38:52.300 |
Are you trying to find, is it just important that you find the one or two good ones? 00:38:55.800 |
Or is it important that you really avoid the one or two bad ones? 00:38:59.260 |
And investing in the stock market, again, is a positive art, which means that it is 00:39:03.400 |
completely normal in every scenario, no matter how you're investing. 00:39:06.840 |
If you're an index fund investor, if you're a stock picker, if you're a trader, whatever 00:39:09.560 |
it is, that you're going to make the majority of your lifetime returns from a small minority 00:39:17.000 |
I mean, the stuff that's pretty incredible is that in a 40-year period from 1980 to 2020, 00:39:23.260 |
the Russell 3000 Index, which is an index of large stocks in the United States, of 3,000 00:39:29.000 |
companies in the United States, 40% of the components in the Russell 3000 effectively 00:39:34.320 |
went out of business over this 40-year period, 40% of the components. 00:39:38.280 |
But the index itself had average annual returns of like 11% per year. 00:39:43.200 |
The index did really well, but 40% of the companies in the index went out of business. 00:39:49.640 |
That's not like a crazy stock picking strategy. 00:39:51.880 |
Even in an index fund, almost half of the companies that you invest in won't make it. 00:39:59.480 |
And the other example I use in the book is Benjamin Graham himself was a very successful 00:40:04.200 |
fund manager over the course of his life, but 100%, and he writes about this, he was 00:40:09.320 |
open about this, 100% of his career success is owed to one investment that he made, Geico. 00:40:15.440 |
If you take his career track record and remove Geico, his track record is completely average. 00:40:21.280 |
And Buffett has talked about this as well, too, from Berkshire Hathaway, if you take 00:40:23.880 |
out the top five or 10 investments they've ever made, Berkshire's track record is average. 00:40:28.620 |
And so that's how successful investing works. 00:40:30.600 |
No matter what your strategy is, you don't need to be right all the time. 00:40:36.600 |
And I think a big part of this is if you invert that is that good investing is not about consistently 00:40:44.520 |
It's about consistently not screwing up so much that you're kind of pushed out of the 00:40:49.600 |
It's consistently making sure that you don't make these catastrophic blunders that are 00:40:54.000 |
But if you can stick around long enough and make enough bets or just have enough annual 00:40:58.600 |
returns under your belt, you're probably going to do well over time, even if you're going 00:41:01.520 |
to experience not just some, but a significant amount of underperformance and loss during 00:41:06.760 |
And one of the ways to think about this, there's a study from Morningstar a couple of years 00:41:09.920 |
ago that looked at the best performing mutual funds of all time. 00:41:14.120 |
These are just cherry picking with hindsight what mutual funds had the best returns over 00:41:19.480 |
And the common denominator of the top three funds, I forget what the funds were, but the 00:41:23.680 |
common denominator that they shared is that they spent almost 40% of the time of their 00:41:31.040 |
So these are cherry picking with hindsight the best funds. 00:41:34.760 |
And if you actually own these funds, almost half the time you are underperforming your 00:41:40.640 |
So it's not easy for people to wrap their heads around that, that tails drive everything, 00:41:45.240 |
that it's just the kind of the tail ends of the bets that you make and the years that 00:41:49.320 |
you're around that are going to drive everything. 00:41:52.400 |
But that's how markets work over time, whether it's for stock picking or just long-term index 00:41:57.000 |
Yeah, the two takeaways for me is if you're picking something that has the long-term nature 00:42:02.880 |
of underperforming 40% of the time, you need to be long-term in the way you pick it and 00:42:10.960 |
And you talk about compounding and I think it's something that as much as it's been drilled 00:42:14.600 |
in our heads our whole lives, it's something that you still need to kind of recognize. 00:42:18.840 |
And then the second is that you need to make multiple bets. 00:42:22.680 |
I hear this in Silicon Valley a lot when people say, "I want to start angel investing." 00:42:27.000 |
And everyone says, "Okay, well, if you want to do that, you need to one, make enough bets 00:42:31.080 |
that you might find something that succeeds and that hit rate is so low that you need 00:42:37.240 |
But you also need to have so much money that angel investing isn't your whole portfolio 00:42:44.600 |
And so I think when you can take the approach of lots of things for a long time, that's 00:42:51.280 |
But taking the approach of, "I'm going to pick one stock and try to make money this 00:42:56.240 |
And I feel like we've kind of gamified that in recent past. 00:42:59.040 |
I feel like for all investing, what you're trying to do is just put the odds of success 00:43:03.880 |
And the way that you're going to do that in a world where tails drive everything, the 00:43:08.240 |
way to put the odds of success in your favor is to be taking a lot of bets and to be sticking 00:43:14.200 |
The more bets you have, the longer you're sticking around, the higher the odds that 00:43:17.800 |
you're going to end up owning the great companies and you'll be around during the years that 00:43:24.280 |
And you're going to spend a lot of time where those companies aren't performing, the market 00:43:28.280 |
But if you stick around long enough and if you have enough bets, the odds fall firmly 00:43:33.920 |
One framework that a really good friend of mine gave me, because inevitably you're going 00:43:37.040 |
to make a bad decision when it comes to your money. 00:43:39.300 |
He always asks me, he's like, "Hey, but wait, I know you're beating yourself up for making 00:43:43.000 |
the wrong investment or doing the wrong thing. 00:43:45.400 |
But did you make the right decision with the information you had at the time?" 00:43:48.520 |
And in one example, it was, "I want to make this thing a higher percentage of my portfolio. 00:43:54.260 |
And I chose a day to do that, where the next day it dropped significantly." 00:43:59.120 |
And he goes, "Yeah, but at the time, was that part of your strategy?" 00:44:03.200 |
And he's like, "Well, you made the right decision and beat yourself up when you make bad decisions 00:44:06.720 |
with information, but don't beat yourself up when you make the right decision, but it 00:44:12.320 |
And we only know one version of history, the version that happened. 00:44:16.320 |
And if we're just looking at a short period of time over the last 12 or 16 months, we 00:44:20.560 |
know the version of history that happened, which was the government came out with trillions 00:44:26.880 |
We created incredible vaccines that were distributed very quickly and et cetera, et cetera. 00:44:32.100 |
That's the history that we know, but it could have been so much different. 00:44:35.400 |
It could have been that Washington had a bunch of partisan squabbles and there was no stimulus 00:44:41.440 |
You could easily imagine a world where economically and health wise, the world completely collapsed 00:44:51.720 |
And if that world occurred, then the people who sold their stocks last March would look 00:44:58.840 |
Just the fact that it didn't doesn't mean that we should ignore the fact that it easily 00:45:06.320 |
You can so easily imagine a world where after Lehman Brothers collapsed, Merrill Lynch, 00:45:12.280 |
and then AIG, and then Citigroup, and then Bank of America all collapsed as well. 00:45:16.840 |
And in that world, which so easily could have happened, we probably would have been looking 00:45:20.080 |
at the second version of the Great Depression. 00:45:22.960 |
That didn't happen, but it so easily could have. 00:45:25.560 |
So I think just to your point, when people make a decision with the information that 00:45:29.440 |
they have at their time, based off of the consequences of what might happen in these 00:45:34.800 |
situations in the future, I think it's easy to beat yourself up, because all we have now 00:45:41.920 |
I think the smartest thinkers are totally comfortable looking at the histories that 00:45:46.200 |
easily could have happened and how they prepared for them, even if in hindsight, it looks like 00:45:52.640 |
With the information that you had at the time, it may have actually been a great decision. 00:45:58.080 |
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Do you all remember episode 122 when I spoke to Chef David Chang about leveling up your 00:47:15.280 |
If not, definitely go back and give it a listen. 00:47:17.600 |
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To get all of the URLs, codes, deals, and discounts from our partners, you can go to 00:48:36.400 |
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I mean, you wrote in the book that the most important economic events of the future, things 00:48:43.880 |
that move the needle the most, are things that history gives us no guide about. 00:48:50.800 |
Knowing that, how do we use history as a guide for what to expect? 00:48:55.120 |
We always have the disclosure, past performance does not reflect future gains. 00:48:58.920 |
But so much of investing is, well, the stock market generally goes up, so we should invest 00:49:04.960 |
Jason Zweig is a great writer from the Wall Street Journal, made this point one time that 00:49:10.160 |
it's not that investors don't learn from history, it's that they learn too precise a lesson 00:49:15.440 |
So his example was after the dot-com bust, the lesson that people learned was when the 00:49:20.880 |
P/E ratio exceeds 30, the market is too expensive. 00:49:26.600 |
But the actual lesson from the 1990s was overconfidence leads to trouble. 00:49:31.320 |
So people learn, they just learn a very precise lesson. 00:49:35.120 |
And since they learned a precise lesson, what they should have learned was overconfidence 00:49:39.560 |
leads to trouble, but they didn't learn that lesson. 00:49:42.060 |
So they took their money and they went and started flipping condos in Miami or whatever 00:49:46.480 |
So when you learn, when you look at history and you learn really precise lessons, they're 00:49:50.240 |
not going to teach you much about the future. 00:49:52.040 |
Because like you said, the biggest events that's going to shape the rest of our lives 00:49:55.680 |
are surprises that you and I or no one else can be talking about today. 00:49:58.920 |
So to me, the way to learn from history is looking back and taking the biggest, broadest 00:50:03.560 |
30,000 foot level views and takeaways about human behavior, about how people respond around 00:50:10.080 |
risk and greed and fear and overconfidence and surprises, like how do people behave around 00:50:18.800 |
I mean, like if you were to look at the last 12 or 16 months, you can have a lot of specific 00:50:24.180 |
takeaways about supply chains and we should have had more N95 masks and the CDC should 00:50:32.680 |
And depending on what your job is, those might be good takeaways. 00:50:35.580 |
But for most people, the most important lesson in the last 16 months is there are things 00:50:40.800 |
that can happen in the world that you're never thinking about that can completely upend all 00:50:46.560 |
Whenever you're surprised in a situation like we all have been in the last 16 months, the 00:50:50.440 |
best takeaway is that the world is surprising. 00:50:53.320 |
It's not to look at what happened and saying, "How can we make sure this never happens again?" 00:50:57.040 |
It's looking at the situation and saying, "A surprise is going to happen again." 00:51:01.360 |
And I think once you do that, then financially, it pushes you much more towards having room 00:51:09.200 |
If I knew all the risks in the future, I would be able to plan around that really effectively. 00:51:14.580 |
I would know that in 2023, there's going to be a recession that starts in February, so 00:51:18.900 |
I'm going to have this cash set aside for that. 00:51:22.340 |
And once you realize that we don't know what the future holds, it makes you much more comfortable 00:51:25.740 |
being like, "I have this big chunk of cash sitting here and I don't know what it's for. 00:51:32.920 |
But I'm confident that at some point in the future, the world is going to break in some 00:51:37.180 |
way that I can't forecast or predict right now, but the world's going to break in some 00:51:42.900 |
Once you become just a little bit more open and flexible with that room for error in your 00:51:46.900 |
finances, I think that's the only way that you can navigate a world where risk is what 00:51:52.620 |
You started this whole conversation off saying that the basics of finance, the models, the 00:51:57.660 |
formulas are what we teach in school because it's way harder to teach all of this stuff. 00:52:01.540 |
And you just mentioned a lot of the history, you have to interpret it differently. 00:52:05.620 |
Which makes me question, is there a path towards educating people more about this earlier? 00:52:16.180 |
How do we help people learn these lessons or at least start to understand these concepts 00:52:20.700 |
that aren't just formulas earlier and more broadly so that people don't make as many 00:52:27.900 |
There's a German professor named Gerhard Gigerenzer who teaches the science of risk. 00:52:32.500 |
And he made this point that in school, we pretty much only teach the math of certainty. 00:52:37.820 |
We teach algebra and trigonometry, which are maths of certainty, gives you very precise 00:52:43.700 |
And instead, what we should be teaching more of is the math of uncertainty, like probability 00:52:49.140 |
And that is taught in school, but it's secondary to the math of certainty, the math that teaches 00:52:54.060 |
you precise answers, that's the first priority. 00:52:57.220 |
And then maybe in college, you can take a course on probability, but that's secondary. 00:53:02.820 |
We should be teaching kindergartners and second graders about probability, because that's 00:53:07.900 |
the math that really matters in the world, and you're going to use it on a daily basis. 00:53:12.100 |
Algebra is important, but you're not going to use algebra on a daily basis, unless you 00:53:16.140 |
have some job, you're a math professor or something. 00:53:18.740 |
99% of people will not use algebra on a daily basis, but 100% of people will use probability 00:53:26.980 |
They're not actually doing the math, but probability impacts every hour of your life. 00:53:32.580 |
And the decisions that you make in life rely on understanding how probability works. 00:53:40.300 |
This gets back to what I was saying earlier about what's taught in school is what's easy 00:53:43.660 |
to teach, and certainty is easy to teach, because you come up with a formula that gives 00:53:49.980 |
Probability where it's like, there's all these unknown worlds, and by definition, it's like 00:53:54.580 |
we don't necessarily know what's going to happen. 00:53:56.360 |
Those are harder to teach, they're harder to wrap your heads around, but they're what 00:54:00.700 |
So if I were king for a day, so to speak, I think I would probably follow Gerard Geiger 00:54:06.180 |
We should start with the math of uncertainty that really makes a difference in your life. 00:54:11.380 |
And as you get older and more specialized, then maybe we can talk about calculus and 00:54:16.100 |
And since neither of us are king for a day to make this change, are there ways that you 00:54:20.900 |
think someone with kids that are in school right now could start to help them learn these 00:54:27.940 |
I think if we're just talking about investing, if you start investing and you own a couple 00:54:33.660 |
of stocks, you own a couple index funds, and you do it for a couple of years, you'll learn 00:54:41.900 |
You're going to experience the market going way up, the market going way down, and that 00:54:47.580 |
You're in the trenches getting your hands dirty. 00:54:49.580 |
I think that's the best way, I would say, to teach people about risk and uncertainty 00:54:54.580 |
Now, a lot of investors who started investing in the last year, all they've experienced 00:55:02.740 |
So the last year of experience has not been a very good lesson because you're not really 00:55:10.940 |
You really got to be investing for a couple years through a couple of cycles before you're 00:55:15.260 |
And then you start viewing the bull markets as like, "Hey, this is cool, but this isn't 00:55:18.540 |
going to last, and a lot of this is going to unwind, and it's going to hurt a lot when 00:55:22.220 |
it does, but I'm okay with that because I've lived through this before." 00:55:26.940 |
I think that's really the only way to do it is with your own money, your own skin in the 00:55:35.420 |
I wouldn't advocate for what I'll propose to be any significant portion of your money. 00:55:40.900 |
But a conversation I had with a friend, an investor, last week was about cryptocurrency. 00:55:46.980 |
And he pointed out that one of the most fascinating lessons about cryptocurrency that he's seen 00:55:51.980 |
is that there's such extreme volatility, right? 00:55:54.860 |
You could go up and down 50% almost in a day, that it's taught him more about market crashes 00:56:02.440 |
and bull markets in the shortest amount of time possible. 00:56:06.140 |
And it made me think, "Gosh, I don't think people should put all of their money in cryptocurrency 00:56:12.540 |
But if you want to learn through investing, it could be a way to accelerate your learning 00:56:22.780 |
I mean, I'm in the same boat as you in terms of recommending crypto, but I absolutely buy 00:56:29.800 |
Well, before we wrap, we've talked a lot about money and risk. 00:56:33.260 |
Are there any main takeaways that you think people should leave this conversation with? 00:56:38.520 |
To me, the biggest thing that I think is the most important part of behavioral finance 00:56:42.200 |
and is maybe the one of the most overlooked is that in order to do well, you have to become 00:56:45.800 |
introspective about who you are and realize that you are different from me and we're all 00:56:51.680 |
And the only way that you can really understand and master the behavioral side of finance 00:56:55.880 |
is just really taking a look at who you are personally. 00:56:58.140 |
Not reading about other people or other people's situations, but just being honest with yourself 00:57:01.840 |
about your own skills, your own weaknesses, your own risk tolerance, your own goals in 00:57:10.800 |
Most people want one answer, like what's the right thing to do? 00:57:14.640 |
And when you become introspective about who you are and realize that everyone's different, 00:57:18.440 |
you realize that people come to different conclusions. 00:57:20.960 |
And what's the right decision for you, Chris, might be the wrong decision for me. 00:57:24.780 |
Even if we're roughly the same age, people come to different things. 00:57:28.400 |
So I would just implore people to spend a little bit more time looking at themselves 00:57:32.400 |
in the mirror and try to figure out who they are and what their risks and goals are. 00:57:41.480 |
And today, I would say it's a little different than some where it wasn't kind of running 00:57:44.760 |
through very tactical things you can do, but really reframing psychology and money as something 00:57:50.680 |
that if you can really start to understand how things work, you can probably hack your 00:57:55.000 |
mind to start to be a more rational, or at least a more reasonable, as you say, investor 00:58:01.940 |
But I will ask, are there a few kind of like life hacks or in any genre for you that are 00:58:07.320 |
things that you do that people have often commented are fascinating or interesting that 00:58:13.040 |
I'll leave you with one financial hack that might disappoint you, but it's the only hack 00:58:17.820 |
that works and it works incredibly well in finance. 00:58:22.440 |
Spend less money than you make and be patient. 00:58:26.280 |
If you can actually do those, you have a black belt in finance. 00:58:29.480 |
It's the only hack that I think really truly works in a way that moves the needle. 00:58:36.760 |
Where can people find out more about what you're writing and everything you do? 00:58:43.640 |
My handle is Morgan Housel, first and last name. 00:58:56.300 |
If you did too, please consider sharing it with a friend or family member or leave us 00:59:02.500 |
I know this episode didn't have as many quick hacks as some others, but like Morgan said, 00:59:06.940 |
if you can master some of the bigger mindset changes, you can really position yourself 00:59:12.260 |
If you have any thoughts or feedback, please get in touch by email, chris@allthehacks.com 00:59:19.540 |
We have a few fantastic episodes coming out soon with hacks from Laura Vanderkam, productivity 00:59:25.540 |
expert and author of What the Most Successful People Do Before Breakfast, Zach Prince, co-founder 00:59:30.740 |
and CEO of BlockFi, and Lisa Rowan, author of Money Hacks, 275 plus ways to decrease 00:59:36.980 |
spending, increase savings, and make your money work for you. 00:59:53.180 |
I want to tell you about another podcast I love that goes deep on all things money. 00:59:57.760 |
That means everything from money hacks to wealth building to early retirement. 01:00:01.580 |
It's called the Personal Finance Podcast, and it's much more about building generational 01:00:05.900 |
wealth and spending your money on the things you value than it is about clipping coupons 01:00:11.780 |
It's hosted by my good friend, Andrew, who truly believes that everyone in this world 01:00:15.740 |
can build wealth and his passion and excitement are what make this show so entertaining. 01:00:20.940 |
I know because I was a guest on the show in December, 2022, but recently I listened to 01:00:26.100 |
an episode where Andrew shared 16 money stats that will blow your mind, and it was so crazy 01:00:31.460 |
to learn things like 35% of millennials are not participating in their employer's retirement 01:00:37.420 |
And that's just one of the many fascinating stats he shared. 01:00:40.840 |
The Personal Finance Podcast has something for everyone. 01:00:43.580 |
It's filled with so many tips and tactics and hacks to help you get better with your 01:00:51.220 |
Just search for the Personal Finance Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you