E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview

00:00:00.000 | All right, what? Oh, we're doing this again. All right, listen,

00:00:03.720 | it's a two parter. You listen to the first part. Now this is the

00:00:06.600 | second part. Episode 76.5. If you will, this is our first

00:00:11.120 | ever two parter part two of our two parter. You already listened

00:00:14.840 | to part one of episode 76. That's Elon and Twitter. Lots of

00:00:18.380 | details there. And now we're going to cover some more topics

00:00:21.880 | including the global food crisis, China's plan to

00:00:25.060 | stockpile a bunch of food geopolitics while around the

00:00:27.780 | horn French election, Germany, etc. And then we'll go into

00:00:31.840 | details about a little bit of the drama and details, pageanty

00:00:35.600 | parties, poker, all the good stuff of the all in summit

00:00:39.600 | coming soon. Okay, enjoy the show. I'll see you on

00:00:43.540 | Monday.

00:00:43.720 | There's still a war raging but I wanted to get an update from

00:00:49.580 | free bird on the food crisis which he predicted very early

00:00:54.580 | for further fertilizer production. So I'm going to

00:00:58.460 | talk about that in a little bit. But before we get into that, I

00:01:02.540 | want to talk about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk

00:01:04.660 | about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food

00:01:07.540 | crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food crisis. So I'm

00:01:09.660 | going to talk about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk

00:01:10.480 | about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food

00:01:11.500 | crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food crisis. So I'm going

00:01:11.840 | to talk about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food

00:01:12.640 | crisis. So I'm going to talk about the food crisis. So I'm going to talk

00:01:12.980 | Fertilizer prices are still climbing like crazy. There's

00:01:17.180 | been some food riding in China, which I think is a separate

00:01:19.460 | issue. He'll educate us in a minute, Sri Lanka.

00:01:21.460 | So what is your theory of what we're gonna do from here

00:01:27.420 | Friedberg, because I think we're all waiting for this shoe to

00:01:30.380 | drop. And I think you predicted this is something that we would

00:01:32.500 | experience into the fall. And into next year. So when, when

00:01:36.820 | are we going to actually see these food riots occurring? And

00:01:38.960 | then as China's food rights have anything to do with this? Or

00:01:41.200 | does that have to do with a Yeah, I would put the Chinese

00:01:44.140 | food riots as kind of a separate localized supply chain problem

00:01:46.960 | related to the lockdowns. Got it. But we're definitely, you

00:01:51.320 | know, I think I mentioned last week, the USDA planting report

00:01:53.980 | showing in the US how acreage is being reduced on corn. And, and

00:01:58.840 | we're seeing this around the world where acres are coming out

00:02:01.080 | of production, or less fertilizers being used, which

00:02:03.580 | means less foods being made. So everything that we predicted, I

00:02:06.140 | mean, this is a slow train a Titanic into the iceberg that

00:02:09.260 | we're watching right now.

00:02:10.700 | And it's going to continue for nine to 18 months. So, you know,

00:02:15.460 | one of the questions that people are now asking, which I said, you

00:02:18.560 | know, would become a really critical next step in this

00:02:20.780 | crisis, is how are we going to bridge the gap in calories?

00:02:23.900 | Where's the food going to come from? And how are we going to

00:02:27.080 | feed nations that are almost entirely dependent on imports

00:02:30.360 | that are running out of food, or out of food. So I've mentioned

00:02:33.200 | this in the past, the whole world runs on a 90 day food

00:02:35.300 | supply, which means roughly 25% of the world's calories are in

00:02:39.060 | storage right now.

00:02:40.200 | But that's not the case, uniformly. So some countries,

00:02:44.400 | like Tunisia and Somalia, Ethiopia, have close to zero

00:02:49.260 | calories in storage. Some countries, like the United

00:02:54.360 | States are roughly, you know, 30 40% of our, you know, annual

00:02:57.840 | consumed calories are sitting in storage. China is a complete

00:03:01.740 | outlier. For years, China has been stockpiling food. And at

00:03:06.120 | this point, China has 150% of their

00:03:09.700 | annual consumption of food in storage. So they have supplies

00:03:14.020 | that if all food production and imports stopped in China, they

00:03:17.620 | would be able to feed their population for one and a half

00:03:20.340 | years. That's an incredible supply of food. So if you look

00:03:23.560 | around the world, to places like Sri Lanka, and places like

00:03:26.380 | Somalia that are struggling to figure out how are we going to

00:03:28.820 | bridge this gap on calories that's about to hit us Egypt's

00:03:31.900 | about four months of food, by the way, and Egypt is

00:03:34.200 | dwindling, they cannot get the food out of the Black Sea. So

00:03:39.200 | China is going to be one of the very few potential solutions for

00:03:44.540 | bridging the calorie gap over the next year. And I have a

00:03:47.420 | strong prediction and a strong belief that because of that,

00:03:51.020 | China will use it to maximal leverage. And we will see over

00:03:54.700 | the next year, an incredible amount of leverage and power

00:03:59.140 | being accumulated by China, because of transactions that

00:04:02.760 | they're going to start to enter into to bridge the calorie gap

00:04:05.600 | around the world. So in the Horn of Africa, for example, there's a

00:04:08.720 | very strong position in the United States, to try and get the

00:04:11.600 | food out of the country, and to try and get the food out of the

00:04:13.820 | country. And so that's a very strong prediction. And we're

00:04:16.360 | going to see a lot of progress in that direction. And the next

00:04:19.080 | year, we're going to see a lot of progress in the United States,

00:04:20.960 | and we're going to see a lot of progress in the United States,

00:04:22.720 | which is going to be very, very important. But we're going to see

00:04:25.160 | a lot of progress in the United States as well. And so we're

00:04:27.600 | going to see a lot of progress in the United States, but we're

00:04:29.900 | going to see a lot of progress in the United States, and we're

00:04:32.660 | going to see a lot of progress in the United States, and we'll

00:04:35.040 | see a lot of progress in the United States, and we're going to

00:04:36.180 | see a lot of progress in the United States, and we're going to

00:04:37.020 | gaining military presence, and establishing a more permanent

00:04:40.100 | foothold in the Horn of Africa, because of the position that

00:04:44.160 | they're in of strength with all these calories and the need in

00:04:47.900 | these regions. And that's not just there, Sri Lanka, other

00:04:51.800 | parts of Southeast Asia, even Western Africa, Northern Africa,

00:04:56.000 | China is going to show up. And they're the only country that

00:04:59.700 | can show up the UN the World Food Program, they're gonna do

00:05:02.000 | everything they can to shuffle calories around, change food

00:05:04.560 | supplies. But I do think that one of the things that

00:05:07.320 | everyone's going to be watching, and it's a slow roll, this isn't

00:05:10.560 | going to be some one big deal, and everyone wakes up over the

00:05:13.380 | next year, while the US is, you know, trying to do everything we

00:05:16.680 | can to maximally impose sanctions on Russia, China is

00:05:20.340 | slowly turning the crank around the world on the influence that

00:05:23.460 | they are going to gain, because of this food crisis, and the

00:05:26.880 | absolute, you know, surplus that they have locally and the ability

00:05:31.260 | to export that surplus to support needs around the world.

00:05:33.900 | And it's not just

00:05:34.560 | not going to be free, it's not going to be cheap. So I thought

00:05:37.420 | it was worth highlighting what we're seeing. And I shared a

00:05:39.620 | couple of articles with you guys. And with Nick articles

00:05:42.480 | that no one is paying attention to. And this isn't some

00:05:45.440 | conspiratorial, oh, my God, there's some dangerous thing

00:05:47.940 | happening. I'm just pointing out one of the things that's

00:05:50.160 | happening as we talk about, you know, the great change in power,

00:05:53.160 | the shift in power globally, that's happening. It is

00:05:56.100 | happening in a very significant way this year, given the surplus

00:06:00.680 | that China has the dirt that many countries have, and the

00:06:03.420 | inability for the US

00:06:04.460 | to really adequately respond to the food crisis that's emerging.

00:06:08.360 | And so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's

00:06:10.820 | attention. There's a lot of little articles that support

00:06:13.680 | this point. I shared them with you guys, you guys can put them

00:06:16.020 | in the show notes and, and put them up on YouTube and whatever.

00:06:18.680 | But I think this is going to become a macro trend that we're

00:06:21.440 | going to wake up to in six to nine months and be like, Whoa,

00:06:23.860 | what the heck happened? You know, how did China get so much

00:06:27.080 | leverage around the world? And it's starting now.

00:06:29.720 | Zach, that's what happens with every war. You know, we all we

00:06:33.900 | go in hot, you know, we, you know, rah, rah, we're all gung

00:06:37.200 | ho. And then at some point in time, we're like, wait a second,

00:06:40.200 | why do we do that? You know? And, you know, and look, there's

00:06:45.540 | no shortage of neocons and liberal interventionists are all

00:06:49.720 | saying this war is wonderful for us, because it's reunited the

00:06:53.020 | American alliance and the Western alliance. And that this

00:06:55.840 | has been this war is a good thing for us. Let's keep it

00:06:58.120 | going. Let's bleed Russia. Let's topple Putin, let's stabilize the

00:07:02.420 | regime.

00:07:03.000 | They're in favor of a protracted conflict that I've been, you know, warning against.

00:07:07.900 | And what Freeburg is saying is the longer this conflict goes on, the more of these disastrous scenarios are going to materialize.

00:07:15.080 | What is your take on how crippled Putin is right now, David, just objectively?

00:07:21.940 | And again, you're not a fan of Putin.

00:07:24.100 | You're responsible for the war.

00:07:25.520 | You've been clear about that.

00:07:26.580 | But he just lost a ship.

00:07:28.320 | Like, I mean, this does not look good for him.

00:07:31.720 | It feels like he can't, and he's losing all his tanks.

00:07:34.460 | I mean, this seems like a crazy outcome.

00:07:35.680 | I don't know anything you don't know in terms of, you know, I'm just a consumer of information.

00:07:39.900 | But I tend to think that we are overly optimistic in the West.

00:07:44.260 | And look, the war has clearly gone very bad for Putin.

00:07:46.860 | But this idea that everything, that magically we're going to get regime change in Moscow, we're going to get Gorbachev 2.0, that that is an objective worth protracting this war for, I tend to think it's going to be a mistake.

00:08:00.760 | I mean, that's...

00:08:01.700 | Now, it doesn't mean I support Russia's invasion.

00:08:05.900 | I've said it's illegal.

00:08:06.860 | It's a crime.

00:08:08.660 | It's a violation of international law.

00:08:10.760 | It's a humanitarian disaster.

00:08:12.120 | But what I've supported is a negotiated peace, a settlement that we try to get as quickly as possible.

00:08:18.640 | That is clearly not the administration's position on this.

00:08:20.800 | They want to keep this thing going.

00:08:22.140 | And, you know, this idea that a long war is good for America's alliances, I would disagree with that.

00:08:28.420 | Because you're already seeing all over the world now.

00:08:31.340 | People are going to be going to the United States.

00:08:31.680 | People are starting to object to American policy.

00:08:33.440 | You saw it with India.

00:08:34.740 | And India is the world's largest democracy.

00:08:37.220 | They should be on our side.

00:08:38.420 | They definitely should not be on China's side because they have a huge latent tension.

00:08:43.860 | But China and India are both de facto on Russia's side on this.

00:08:49.780 | Africa and large parts of Latin America...

00:08:53.120 | Well, India would like to have oil.

00:08:54.400 | And they would like to have a good deal on oil.

00:08:57.000 | They would like to maintain their relationship with Russia.

00:08:59.120 | And they did not support the denunciation.

00:09:01.660 | They would like to see the end of Russia.

00:09:02.660 | They would like to see this conflict end.

00:09:03.660 | Large parts of Africa would like to see it end.

00:09:05.660 | Latin America.

00:09:06.660 | Basically, all the victims, if there's a famine in the world in six months, like Friberg is saying,

00:09:11.660 | they are all very worried about this.

00:09:13.660 | All of them have expressed concern with the American policy, which seems to be to protract this war.

00:09:19.660 | Okay.

00:09:20.660 | And Friberg, you have to go do your talk at Berkeley.

00:09:22.660 | Congratulations.

00:09:23.660 | And we'll see you next time.

00:09:24.660 | Thanks for the contribution.

00:09:25.660 | Chamath, any thoughts on the CPI?

00:09:29.660 | We set a record.

00:09:30.660 | That seemed to have gotten lost.

00:09:31.660 | In the haze of Twitter.

00:09:33.660 | I learned something really interesting that I just wanted to share with you guys.

00:09:37.660 | So there was a big CPI print, obviously.

00:09:40.660 | But there was a report, probably not many people read it.

00:09:44.660 | But it was about home equity.

00:09:47.660 | And the takeaway was that since 2020, Americans have taken 430, I think the exact number is 427.

00:09:57.660 | $427 billion of home equity out of their homes.

00:10:01.660 | And effectively spent it.

00:10:03.660 | So what it started to make me think about was if you look at all of that home equity,

00:10:09.660 | plus the stimmy checks, plus the unemployment insurance checks, that starts to explain,

00:10:15.660 | I think, why the labor markets are so tight and why people haven't gone back to work.

00:10:18.660 | There is no motivation because there's just so much money sloshing around for them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this stuff that they don't want to anymore.

00:10:27.660 | And I think the thing to keep in mind is like, that's also why we're in this situation.

00:10:29.660 | We're in this situation.

00:10:30.660 | I think it's like that's also what's gone into the stock market.

00:10:33.660 | It's also what's driven up the price of used cars, new cars, all of this stuff.

00:10:38.660 | I just think that kind of like starts to paint a picture of CPI that's really important, which is that it's probably a little bit more transitory than we may actually think.

00:10:50.660 | Because when you exhaust all of that extra money that's in the system, there's not as much inflation to be had.

00:10:59.660 | People are now forecasting that inflation is really going to taper off.

00:11:02.660 | And the big warning sign that everybody is sort of marching towards is too many excessive rate hikes between now and the end of the year could actually push us into a real recession.

00:11:13.660 | And we were talking about that before, but the probability is now sort of like one in three.

00:11:18.660 | Whereas before, I think David and I sounded a little bit crazy when we were talking about it.

00:11:23.660 | So I just wanted to put that out there as something I learned this week that I thought was really important.

00:11:27.660 | Worth considering.

00:11:28.660 | The labor participation rate peaked at 67, 68%.

00:11:32.660 | But half a trillion dollars of home equity.

00:11:34.660 | And now it's 61.

00:11:35.660 | I mean, half a trillion dollars of actual spending in the economy.

00:11:38.660 | That's a ton of money to be absorbed.

00:11:40.660 | Right.

00:11:41.660 | If people have a couple of hundred grand in their bank account who own homes or whatever, there's no need to go back to a job.

00:11:46.660 | And if you don't feel safe because you maybe still have some COVID fears, you don't want to commute or you're just out of the rhythm for two years, and you're like, I'm kind of enjoying skiing or whatever you're doing, whatever your jam is.

00:11:55.660 | Maybe there's no rush to get there.

00:11:57.660 | There's no rush to get back.

00:11:58.660 | You'll wait until you exhaust all of that money.

00:12:02.660 | And then we're not, as we talked about, we're not letting people into the country at the same time.

00:12:08.660 | So you still have 10 million job openings.

00:12:10.660 | If that flips, that would be economic activity that would be helpful in fighting against a recession, correct?

00:12:21.660 | I mean, I think that we're probably going to have a quarter or two contraction.

00:12:26.660 | It's probably going to happen at sort of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year.

00:12:31.660 | Just the real question is how high are rates between now and then?

00:12:36.660 | And again, I think the setup isn't very good, which is that the investors in the stock market are playing chicken with the Fed.

00:12:44.660 | And they're just at the beginning of a rate cycle, and they haven't been able to impact any real forms of liquidity in the equity market.

00:12:51.660 | And so I think they're going to attack.

00:12:55.660 | That and the only blunt force instrument they have is rates.

00:12:57.660 | And so, you know, you could see rates at three, three and a half percent, and that's going to impact a lot of stuff.

00:13:03.660 | And the problem is that, you know, it's going to be after the economy has slowed down because it's going to be after a lot of these, you know, fake savings, if you will, have been depleted.

00:13:12.660 | Yeah, well, we're seeing some pressure come off as well.

00:13:14.660 | The car shortage is kind of ending.

00:13:16.660 | And wages have raised so that it seems like they're in a situation where they're going to have to do something about it.

00:13:24.660 | It seems like they're in this, you know, confluence of events.

00:13:28.660 | Certain things are starting to work themselves out.

00:13:30.660 | Are you bullish?

00:13:31.660 | Hey, can I tell you something else?

00:13:32.660 | I was in Washington this week.

00:13:34.660 | The number of people that listen to our pod, it is incredible.

00:13:40.660 | It's interesting, yeah.

00:13:42.660 | Incredible.

00:13:43.660 | How many people in Washington care about our views on politics?

00:13:45.660 | It's incredible.

00:13:46.660 | Because I've heard that feedback too.

00:13:47.660 | Yeah.

00:13:48.660 | It's really, really, really special.

00:13:50.660 | We've stumbled into something pretty cool.

00:13:52.660 | And the fact that it's like must-see.

00:13:53.660 | It's like must-see.

00:13:54.660 | It's must-listening.

00:13:55.660 | It's must-listen at this point.

00:13:56.660 | It's like a Sunday weekly show.

00:13:57.660 | You just get a different perspective from the tech sector and capital allocators that maybe you don't get on a, you know, meet the press or something.

00:14:05.660 | Yeah.

00:14:06.660 | But just to follow up on that inflation point, the economic point, Jason, if I can.

00:14:09.660 | Yeah, please.

00:14:10.660 | So, look, the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year-over-year basis.

00:14:18.660 | And you remember about a year ago is when inflation started.

00:14:22.660 | Around this time last year, inflation was only 2.5%.

00:14:24.660 | Then it reached 5% by the summer.

00:14:26.660 | Then by the end of the year, it was almost 8%.

00:14:28.660 | So, as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're comping against a 7.8% number last year.

00:14:37.660 | So, I don't think inflation is going to get any better.

00:14:40.660 | We're probably looking at roughly a 12%, you know, official two-year inflation number.

00:14:46.660 | So, in other words, since Biden took over as president, you're looking at probably 12% to 13%.

00:14:51.660 | Of total inflation as measured by CPI.

00:14:54.660 | And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation.

00:15:02.660 | You can almost predict that Jen Psaki or whoever replaces her at the podium at the White House briefing room, they're going to be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year.

00:15:11.660 | But it doesn't mean price levels will have decreased.

00:15:13.660 | Prices will still be very high.

00:15:15.660 | When people go to the grocery store, they buy meat or bread or what have you.

00:15:20.660 | It's going to be very expensive.

00:15:22.660 | And I don't think people are going to be feeling better off.

00:15:24.660 | And there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration.

00:15:29.660 | And also, I think it's going to impact consumption.

00:15:31.660 | I mean, if you're going to a gas station and you, I mean, I drove the minivan to LA and it's the only electric, it's the only non-electric car we have.

00:15:41.660 | We happen to drive it because we had a number of people that was bigger than the X.

00:15:44.660 | And it was like shocking to buy $7 gasoline.

00:15:48.660 | And obviously, I can withstand that.

00:15:49.660 | I can withstand, you know, filling up.

00:15:51.660 | But I could see people saying, you know what, maybe I'm not going to make that incremental trip.

00:15:57.660 | Or, you know, you start looking at some of the prices, you know, for taking a trip or flights.

00:16:02.660 | I don't know if you've looked at flights or hotels.

00:16:04.660 | Like things are starting to creep up that it's like super noticeable.

00:16:08.660 | And that's got to affect consumption.

00:16:10.660 | And then that would be what would be part of those negative two quarters, right, Chamath?

00:16:14.660 | I mean, the role of people stopping consuming and just saying, you know what?

00:16:18.660 | It's too expensive right now.

00:16:19.660 | Just I'll stay at home and watch Netflix.

00:16:21.660 | Fuck it.

00:16:22.660 | You know, I'll cook pasta tonight.

00:16:24.660 | You see that happening already.

00:16:26.660 | Yeah, people are starting to balance the balance sheet.

00:16:28.660 | Just looking at the balance sheet and saying, you know what, what's a way I can, you know, cut some expensive items off the, you know, ride a bike.

00:16:35.660 | They're going to take less travel because, you know, the cost of airline tickets have gone up because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up.

00:16:40.660 | It all ripples through the economy.

00:16:43.660 | But I think the thing is that when the Fed gets involved, they're going to be like, you know, we're going to have to do this.

00:16:47.660 | If the Fed gets involved, though, they get involved in a brute force way.

00:16:51.660 | Let me make a prediction right now.

00:16:53.660 | If we're definitely headed into an economic slowdown, I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high.

00:16:58.660 | Two negative quarters of growth.

00:16:59.660 | Yes, exactly.

00:17:00.660 | So, you know, very high chance, I think, of recession, like Chamath said, towards the end of the year.

00:17:05.660 | If this war is still going on and we get in a recession, look out below.

00:17:09.660 | I think this president will be in Jimmy Carter territory.

00:17:11.660 | He began the year at 38%.

00:17:13.660 | That was in reasonably good conditions of peacetime.

00:17:16.660 | If you know, and I tweeted at the beginning of the year in January, I said that, you know, this is, you know, you're at 38%.

00:17:23.660 | That's what peace and prosperity will look out below if we get recession and war.

00:17:27.660 | That's what it's looking like right now.

00:17:29.660 | So, you know, I think this is things are looking pretty, pretty dire, which is why I keep saying it.

00:17:34.660 | You know, the policy of this administration should be to try and find a settlement to the situation in Ukraine to this war.

00:17:41.660 | I know that we didn't start it.

00:17:42.660 | Putin started it.

00:17:43.660 | Let's be clear.

00:17:44.660 | But if there's an off.

00:17:45.660 | If there's an off ramp here, we should be seizing it because we got real problems back home in America and the administration should be focused on our economy and our problems.

00:17:55.660 | Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely.

00:18:01.660 | And I think there's a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric to kind of, you know, find a way to end what's going on over there.

00:18:14.660 | Yeah.

00:18:15.660 | I think that's the they're going to see a pretty meaningful recession.

00:18:16.660 | I think.

00:18:17.660 | Yeah, absolutely.

00:18:18.660 | Much more, much more so than we will.

00:18:19.660 | Yeah.

00:18:20.660 | And if you look, if you look right now, what's happening in France, Marine Le Pen is surging.

00:18:21.660 | Unbelievable.

00:18:22.660 | Against Macron.

00:18:23.660 | I don't know if she's going to pull off the upset, but one of the major pillars.

00:18:24.660 | Well, actually, here's what she's running on.

00:18:25.660 | She is saying that she has been focused on inflation and cost of living.

00:18:26.660 | And she says Macron has been distracted by being America's basically lapdog puppet, whatever, on Ukraine.

00:18:27.660 | And she's saying that she's been focused on inflation and cost of living.

00:18:28.660 | And she says Macron has been distracted by being America's basically lapdog puppet, whatever, on Ukraine.

00:18:29.660 | upset but one of the major pillars well actually here's what she's running on she is saying that

00:18:34.520 | she has been focused on inflation and cost of living and she says Macron has been distracted

00:18:40.040 | by being America's basically lap dog puppet whatever on Ukraine so she's saying we need

00:18:46.040 | to focus on the French economy and she's also saying that we as France should set our own

00:18:51.980 | following policy and not be so differential to the U.S she says that this protracted War

00:18:56.180 | in Ukraine and all this hot rhetoric coming out of the Biden administration about war crimes and

00:19:01.160 | destabilizing Putin and toppling him and putting him on trial at the Hague that is not in French

00:19:05.480 | interests that's what the Americans want to do but it's not what we should be wanting to do we need

00:19:09.860 | to end this war and I'm not ready to say she's going to pull off the upset yet but she is clearly

00:19:14.540 | articulating that message because she is finding purchase with the French electorate based on that

00:19:20.240 | message and you're going to hear that if this war continues for three months and six months and

00:19:24.560 | Europe goes into recession you're going to start

00:19:26.120 | hearing politicians all over the European continent saying the same thing and questioning

00:19:31.460 | American leadership and why are they are dragging this thing out the the thing that's the scariest

00:19:35.900 | thing about the French election and I'm not sure how many Americans uh paid attention to it but

00:19:42.080 | just to maybe summarize in a very quick nutshell you actually had this really interesting dynamic

00:19:47.120 | of three candidates one was what would be considered far left uh Jean-Luc melancholy

00:19:55.280 | one

00:19:56.060 | and then one that was very centrist Emmanuel macro and what's crazy is both of these two

00:20:03.560 | were you know 22 plus percent of all of the votes it was just that le pen and Macron were one and two

00:20:12.860 | and so they go into a runoff election and you know manachan was very clear he was like under

00:20:17.840 | no circumstance should any of my supporters vote for le pen but it just shows you what's happening

00:20:25.400 | which is like

00:20:26.000 | France which is you know sort of coming undone under this populist fight

00:20:32.540 | um is probably uh a canary in the coal mine for how this stuff could play out in other places and

00:20:38.960 | it's kind of scary it'll be interesting to see what happens in Germany as well as they look at

00:20:43.700 | this enabling of they were able to hold the line they you know they still have a center-right

00:20:48.200 | government but you know in Austria for a while that wasn't the case in Hungary it's not really

00:20:53.360 | the case um so there's a lot of countries at least in the eastern block of of Europe where you've you've

00:20:59.780 | seen a tip in one direction or the other um it's not unreasonable to think of that in France it could

00:21:04.760 | tip in one direction or the other fortunately in the UK or unfortunately however you look at

00:21:09.320 | it it's still really a two-party system um for the most part I think so I don't know we're we're in a

00:21:16.580 | really uh precarious moment in world history I think yeah by the way I want to talk about one

00:21:23.000 | thing that I talked at the end of last year I talked about just a very random thing um about

00:21:27.320 | you know uh Visa and MasterCard and how you could short them um or you know like basically like the

00:21:33.620 | payment networks we're going to start to get you know dismantled this year it's really interesting

00:21:39.800 | to see I don't know if you guys have been really paying attention to all the activity that's been

00:21:44.120 | happening in payments over like the last

00:21:46.520 | literally 90 days I think has been really incredible up into you know just today you

00:21:51.860 | know Visa and MasterCard I think are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a

00:21:56.000 | duopoly which is raising prices especially into an inflationary moment which just lacks complete

00:22:02.180 | knowledge and sensitivity of the moment so damp economic activity but also creates the

00:22:09.080 | incentives for disruption sure right because then the gap between you and

00:22:12.860 | your next killer's competitor becomes more obvious and again in capitalism

00:22:16.460 | you compete away these advantages and I just think that uh the setup is becoming more and

00:22:21.440 | more obvious for the shift in payments I just think it's quite interesting so Dick Durbin

00:22:25.520 | actually today basically is going to create a big you know hubbub in the Senate around

00:22:29.720 | these increasing merchant fees which will eventually spill over to consumers there's

00:22:34.580 | some talk that you know uh I I what is it called Zelly uh is that how you pronounce it Zelly the

00:22:40.520 | the the the inner bank payment system people are talking about them converting that to becoming a

00:22:45.560 | more substantive payment system and then you know you know I think that's a really interesting thing

00:22:46.400 | in the payment system and then this week I was able to see a little bit under the hood of you

00:22:51.680 | know Solana pay and that's really exciting so it's all coming I think like uh it's like a swarm of

00:22:59.960 | activity uh to dismantle these payments businesses I just wanted to just give the 90-day update from

00:23:06.740 | our from our discussion in January all right everybody uh we will see you May 15th 16th and

00:23:11.360 | 17th in Miami for the first all-in summit now sold out no more tickets available there's a lot of

00:23:16.340 | wait lists but we're not going to be able to get to anybody on it sorry you can sign up and we'll

00:23:20.300 | make sure you know about next year if there is a next year this might be a one and done kind

00:23:23.840 | of situation three amazing parties Sunday night is a poker tournament for charity the top it's going

00:23:30.080 | to be a sit and go format if you win your sit and go you go into a sit and go bake off and then you

00:23:36.080 | get to sit at the final table with the four besties the winners are going to get to make a donation to

00:23:40.160 | the charity of their choice uh paid for by the besties and Sunday night's party will be the good

00:23:45.380 | fellas party Monday's gonna be the besties and then we're gonna have a little bit of a discussion

00:23:46.280 | it's going to be the Havana white party bring your linen sacks I know you got a whole closet

00:23:50.000 | full down there and then uh Tuesday nights are Miami vice party here are the mock-ups

00:23:56.120 | this is the first time I'm seeing it same time it's a little reveal there's a lot of work the

00:24:01.940 | copy I didn't write we're workshopping it it's just we we got a little uh what do they call that

00:24:06.620 | like a mood board it's a little bit of a mood board here's your uh wet your beaks party for

00:24:11.540 | Sunday night it's going to be a good fellas theme should be a lot of fun this is like it looks like

00:24:16.220 | good fellas it looks like good fellas we're going to keep working on it uh wet your beaks probably

00:24:20.300 | not gonna be the name of your party but that's Sunday night and then next up is our Havana white

00:24:25.400 | party despite all the you take uh you do such a good job with this I gotta thank you

00:24:30.740 | and then we're gonna have this social club I apologize but I think this is complete dog

00:24:36.380 | this one the first one supposed to be Buena Vista social club you're just a heathen you never saw

00:24:40.460 | that the first one is so good this is horrendous well I don't even know what is this picture of it's

00:24:45.440 | a it's a theme on the Buena Vista social club it's a it's not the right image but we're workshopping

00:24:50.060 | it like I said but yeah that's going to be a Havana white party everybody's going to wear linens on

00:24:53.720 | Monday night and it's that's going to be at a beautiful space name and that yeah like I said

00:24:58.700 | this is just a designer coming up with ideas and then of course we're going to have our Miami Vice

00:25:02.540 | we're going to rent a couple of um oh that I like Miami Ventures and so there we are and so that

00:25:08.840 | should be our at 420 Bitcoin Street your best 80s dress for Miami Ventures so it's gonna be three

00:25:14.420 | parties that is that's gonna be a lot of fun and then we're gonna have a little bit of a party

00:25:15.380 | because uh that's hot I think it's gonna be a three great parties you have to but everybody's

00:25:20.900 | gonna have to get three great outfits so linens are easy Monday night Jake your thighs look really

00:25:25.880 | big in this photo well this is fat J Cal this is not 167 J Cal this is 198 J Cal on your left leg

00:25:32.960 | you can't tell where your bottom part of the leg stops where you're sitting in a stool in that

00:25:39.080 | picture they got but yeah but it's like you have no knee it's just like one big shank like yeah well

00:25:44.600 | you know what it's when you're fat and you got fat suits you know everything's listen I'm looking at

00:25:49.760 | pictures of myself why didn't you guys fat shame me more that's the question I have you guys should

00:25:54.320 | have been just you you really look incredible and then yesterday when I saw you I was like holy

00:25:59.480 | this guy looks really fantastic look there's no knee there it's just no name it's like no

00:26:03.440 | name it's like big shank you know what when you're a fat guy you get fat suits you just try to you

00:26:08.240 | and now I'm having to rebut look at that fat face zoom out oh my God zoom out zoom out look terrible

00:26:14.780 | flat hair now looking nice no you look good I like fabulous let's go with this one let's go with this

00:26:21.440 | you look good yeah we're gonna redo mine I want all the photos done of Vin J Cal for the inspiration

00:26:27.200 | don't no double chin what are you doing you work for me yeah we need we need killing me where's my

00:26:32.480 | neck now I got a neck again I found my neck everybody there you have it folks so uh I'm

00:26:38.060 | sorry if you're watching this video and you're not subscribed to the channel please do subscribe

00:26:38.180 | to the channel and hit the bell so you don't miss any of the next videos and I'll see you in the next video

00:26:38.220 | did not get into the all-in Summit but we've got a great lineup of speakers and events planned no

00:26:44.820 | press because well we have the same distribution but we will the press will be able to see all the

00:26:50.880 | talks so all the talks will come out post event on the all-in feed so for the 10 days after the

00:26:55.800 | all-in feed you're going to get a show every day and who are confirmed speakers at this point oh my

00:27:00.240 | Lord so many good ones hold on let me pull it up here Keith raboy Palmer lucky is coming uh good

00:27:07.200 | that's confirmed that's awesome

00:27:08.160 | yeah we got that confirmed he's a big fan of saxy poo the new website's up by the way and it looks

00:27:13.560 | beautiful wow look at this so we have uh Ryan Peterson uh Nate Silver Brett Gerstner uh Claire

00:27:20.460 | uh Vickle who is amazing uh Mar Hershon Palmer lucky Keith raboy Joe Lon you got Antonio to want

00:27:27.720 | to speak tip herb Antonio is now coming out of a shell Antonio Garcia Martinez I mean these are

00:27:33.180 | uh Adina you should get um we should get some foreign policy folks too I mean

00:27:38.100 | well if you guys wanted to do any work you could help me out here I thought this was just

00:27:44.160 | a grift you were doing I didn't know it was serious now I'm now I may have to help yeah no

00:27:48.180 | you're going to be proud of this well here's the thing that I'm going to be most proud of is the

00:27:51.480 | format I have come up with a new concept of a format I came up with a theme question that people

00:27:56.880 | can choose to answer or not but the problem I want to solve and it could be the problem I most want

00:28:02.100 | to solve it could be the problem I want to see solved a problem I'm thinking about people will

00:28:06.180 | go up in most cases and give a 10 to 20 minute call it a Ted style talk a solo dolo talk where

00:28:12.360 | they kind of talk about what they're working on in their lives then they come and sit in a chair with

00:28:17.580 | two besties on either side and then the four of us engage them in a conversation while we're talking

00:28:23.280 | we're going to have maybe five slides that producers will put together of data points

00:28:27.540 | Etc so we all get educated we pull up the slide and then there'll be you know 600 people in the

00:28:32.520 | auditorium 100 people in the simulcast room we will take one of the slides and we'll put it in the

00:28:36.120 | chat one question from the audience or two questions if we have time with each segment

00:28:39.120 | and so you're going to get a lot of bestie action but stimulated by bestie guestie positions and I

00:28:46.380 | think this is really what folks want now if somebody doesn't want to give one let's say

00:28:50.520 | Palmer just wants to talk well we'll just talk with Palmer um and so there's going to be an

00:28:55.800 | option I told people you could your position paper your position statement could be five

00:29:00.420 | minutes it could be 20. so I want to do something on uh natural resource scarcity and

00:29:06.060 | uh National Security so uh Jim latinsky the CEO of MP materials okay you just all you got to do is

00:29:11.760 | email me the person's email address or introduce me and we'll set it up so we'll we'll do something

00:29:15.360 | on like the supply chain of like rare Earths and lithium nickel coal and so and then here's my

00:29:19.320 | other idea so I I told everybody that the problem I'd like to solve there is energy independence for

00:29:24.240 | America perfect so then do I still need to email you now just email me but here's the thing we're

00:29:30.000 | doing I told everybody I just told you the yeah we have it Nick we'll take a note yeah um to remind

00:29:35.220 | you um to get the email address here's what's gonna happen okay so you don't need me to email

00:29:38.700 | you I mean we don't want to guess the email if you have it and you know them I mean I know you

00:29:43.020 | want to do the least amount of work but I need to get a producer's fee here I don't know you

00:29:46.560 | guys got to outvote freeburg putting that aside I'm letting my beak I'm fine with that too thank

00:29:52.260 | you then three because that's how all in media is working now it's just going to be votes well

00:29:55.800 | why don't you sign the LLC agreement did anybody sign it yet I was going to review it to see what

00:30:00.060 | poison pill freeburg put in there I'm not signing this till I have two lawyers look it

00:30:05.160 | freeburg's got a poison pill in there I don't know about you guys but I just signed any random

00:30:08.580 | docusign that ends up in my notes I just you know I want to get to speak you know here we go

00:30:13.800 | in the last 30 days yeah so I'd like to get I'd like to get Professor John Mearsheimer to speak

00:30:19.440 | he's uh that'd be great yeah he's a professor at the University of Chicago he's been there 40 years

00:30:23.760 | he's the leading he's a leading theorist you could say of the school of thought called realism

00:30:30.480 | uh in foreign policy and he has a track

00:30:35.040 | record of being right about all of America's foreign policy oh wait just the guy you shared

00:30:40.140 | the video with right yeah so he's the guy who talked about what do they call that the mono dual

00:30:45.780 | tri world nuclear multi-polar unipolar when yeah I mean he has a critique he has a critique of

00:30:55.140 | liberal interventionism which has been the dominant Fantastic foreign policy since the

00:30:58.560 | end of the Cold War it's what got us into Iraq Afghanistan Syria Libya he predicted all those

00:31:03.840 | things to be fiascos he also predicted that our policy of constructive engagement towards China

00:31:08.580 | would ultimately backfire and be a disaster and he has a very contrarian critique right now of our

00:31:15.060 | policy in Ukraine that's gone viral yes on Twitter and it's gotten like 10 million plus views he'd be

00:31:23.100 | an incredible person to to come speak well here's what's happened while we invite people you know we

00:31:28.200 | invite some people they don't know the show we knew other people and like oh my God I love the show I'm

00:31:33.300 | there what's going to be interesting is the next 30 days we're going to talk to each person about

00:31:37.620 | what they what topic they really want to you know double click on and then we're going to pair people

00:31:42.120 | so you might have Keith raboy and Antonio you know you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale or

00:31:47.880 | whatever and so hopefully we can find a little dynamic maybe people don't agree maybe they have

00:31:52.080 | you know opposite positions and then we're going to then have this great Socratic dialogue with

00:31:57.120 | everybody and I think it's going to be a very fast-paced type thing and then hopefully the

00:32:02.040 | speakers sit in the VIP area and then I'm going to have a runner there with a microphone or I might

00:32:07.380 | do it myself so you know I might have Keith raboy on in the morning in the afternoon he might want

00:32:11.880 | to chime in on Joe Lonsdale's talk I run up to him with a microphone Etc so we got probably we're

00:32:18.360 | going to do two hours in the morning three hours in the afternoon so it's 10 to 12 so you can sleep

00:32:22.800 | in or come for coffee if we stay late playing poker every night it's going to be a gentle wake

00:32:27.540 | up 12 to 2 is a nice lunch healthy three to five

00:32:31.740 | nice con I'm sorry two to five three hours of nice content then you get a little break you go to the

00:32:37.020 | parties at the end of the parties you never know a poker table or two might be pulled out and we

00:32:40.500 | play a little cash game who knows anything's possible so poker could be all three nights

00:32:44.640 | I don't know you know this depends on the degeneracy level but I think it's going to

00:32:48.660 | be a fun time I'm just asking nobody go ham on Sunday or Monday night please Tuesday night you

00:32:56.040 | want to have a little extra curricular you want to go a little late Davey Chamath that's fine

00:33:01.140 | but I want everybody in bed by midnight Sunday night no crazy all right so what are the dates

00:33:09.120 | this thing again okay it's Sunday Monday Tuesday Sunday Monday of what of what uh May 15 16 17.

00:33:19.560 | okay oh my God oh my God what a show and you better fly some speakers out

00:33:25.560 | it's in a month it is yes that's why I'm busting my ass on this okay so uh Jake

00:33:30.780 | I'm going to introduce you to latinsky so we can uh slot and if anybody had uh we could use a couple

00:33:35.520 | more female speakers people of color I'm really trying to keep it diverse and have a lot of range

00:33:39.480 | of speakers a lot of David Stan said yes early you got the Joe Lonsdale she could Keith were boys they

00:33:44.940 | all like want to support David's team I could use a couple people maybe with opposing viewpoints so

00:33:50.040 | we're trying to keep it a little bit white at Barry Weiss may come we're trying to work on bar

00:33:53.940 | that's good yeah we should go can't make it I wanted to have Barry and Kara Swisher it doesn't

00:33:58.260 | seem like that oil and vinegar is going to happen can we uh yeah I'm going to go ahead and get some

00:34:00.660 | uh can we get Glenn Greenwald but that's right right right you're getting you're getting further

00:34:05.760 | further to the right what I would like to have is somebody Matt Taibbi that's another kind of

00:34:10.620 | right guy I would like to know your definitions are all off Jason these definitions don't mean

00:34:14.820 | anything anymore okay they're independent critical thinkers they're they're they originally came from

00:34:19.320 | the left they're not like huge fans of unbridled capitalism but they're more on the populist side

00:34:24.180 | anybody Saks I would appreciate it particularly Peter

00:34:30.420 | Teal who's the you're the one person who can deliver it since you guys are besties

00:34:33.900 | bring us Peter Teal the guy spoke at a goddamn all right give me a give me a list I'll invite

00:34:40.620 | Glenn I'll invite Taibbi I'll invite Peter oh great now we just lost half the audience

00:34:44.940 | we could have a protest outside I I actually this is the most interesting people exactly

00:34:49.740 | Peter Teal is the most interesting for sure I like Mike Taibbi actually I'll give you that

00:34:54.000 | here's the problem here's the problem here's the problem with getting the people on the other side

00:34:59.040 | is that the people on the other side again it's not right versus left anymore it's sort of populist

00:35:03.840 | versus elitist and you already know what all the elitists are going to say and they're too afraid

00:35:07.980 | to be on stage with people on the other side but I mean I think that you're associated with Peter

00:35:13.020 | Teal which is a little bit charged and triggering for certain people that's right yeah exactly that

00:35:17.340 | that's why they don't they don't believe in free speech they don't I mean people are like how could

00:35:20.520 | you be friends with David I'm like because we love each other and we're friends like we're besties

00:35:25.260 | and they're like well but you disagree with them I'm like it's it's contamination by association

00:35:27.720 | it's it's contamination by association I'm like because we love each other we're friends like we're besties and they're like well but you disagree with them I'm like it's it's contamination by association

00:35:27.720 | it's contamination by association well that's what they're basically that's I mean David that's what

00:35:31.980 | they're trying to do to me right now I'm getting the back Channel how could you do this with David

00:35:35.040 | Sachs and I'm like because he's my best friend that's why our pod is popular is we have four

00:35:39.600 | people who are friends who sometimes disagree with each other the reason you can't create the show

00:35:44.040 | and still anywhere else right I'm not giving up my friendship with David the reason you can't

00:35:48.540 | create the show anywhere else is because those people think they get contaminated

00:35:53.580 | if they even have a conversation with somebody on the other side of things

00:35:56.820 | but you don't get that on your side correct because we believe you and saying because we're

00:36:03.000 | intellectually confident we're intellectually confident we don't believe in shutting down the

00:36:06.840 | debate right we believe in free speech the other side they're authoritarian yeah because they can't

00:36:13.860 | defend anything they just cancel people they've lost the art of persuasion I think they've given

00:36:20.220 | up their position would be they've given up trying to reach you you just don't get it they've given

00:36:24.960 | up trying to reach you and I'm like don't give up

00:36:26.760 | put up a fight if you disagree with Sax's it's not about reaching me it's not about reaching me it's

00:36:32.460 | about reaching all of them yes all the people out there watching debate they don't want to

00:36:36.960 | engage the debate because they can't win the debate because they don't know how to persuade

00:36:39.780 | weekly look what I did all they gotta do is cancel people yes they're so used to cancel

00:36:48.300 | every week Sax and I own you half the time okay if he's good I think so January 6th we're gonna

00:36:54.840 | release the January 6 tapes

00:36:56.400 | that's all you got that's all you got you're like MSNBC that's all you got

00:37:00.780 | we'll let your winners ride

00:37:03.840 | Rain Man David Sacks

00:37:06.840 | and it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love you

00:37:14.220 | best queen of Kinwa

00:37:15.840 | besties are gone

00:37:23.760 | that's my dog taking a driveway

00:37:27.420 | oh man my avatars will meet me I put we should all just get a room and just have one big huge

00:37:35.460 | orgy because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual tension but we just need to

00:37:39.240 | release them out what you're about to be what your your feet we need to get merchies are I'm doing all

00:37:49.140 | in

00:37:49.500 | I'm doing all in

00:37:57.600 | foreign

E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview

Chapters