Will AI Take Our Jobs?: “This Time It's Not Different"
00:00:00.000 | I'd like to summarize my thoughts in three charts.
00:00:02.440 | And I call this, "This Time It's Not Different."
00:00:04.880 | Chart number one is a look at the components of U.S. GDP.
00:00:08.480 | This is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
00:00:10.240 | The components of GDP are surprisingly resilient
00:00:13.720 | and roughly the same over long stretches of time.
00:00:16.280 | So if that is true,
00:00:17.520 | what happens when you have any kind of a revolution?
00:00:20.880 | So let's look at the Industrial Revolution,
00:00:22.640 | the shift from farms to factories.
00:00:24.280 | And what you saw was in specific job classes,
00:00:27.640 | things just fall to zero.
00:00:29.640 | So this is what people are worried about.
00:00:31.680 | But if you remember the last chart,
00:00:33.240 | somehow we found a way to find growth.
00:00:36.440 | And this is what's demonstrated on this final chart,
00:00:38.600 | which is when you look at U.S. productivity
00:00:40.400 | and worker compensation,
00:00:41.640 | you find that every time we find a new way of innovating,
00:00:45.520 | compensation tends to track it.
00:00:47.440 | As productivity goes up, which is what AI should give us,
00:00:50.680 | compensation also goes up,
00:00:51.960 | which means new job classes will be created.
00:00:54.640 | It feels more personal right now
00:00:56.520 | because we're all living it,
00:00:57.560 | But I suspect that this time is not different.