back to index719-Why-I-Dont-Miss-Investing-in-the-Stock-Market-2826
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I am your host and today we're going to talk about why I don't miss investing in the stock 00:00:44.160 |
Now you should have a little bit of context though. 00:00:45.920 |
The reason why I think this is interesting is that I have for almost all of my adult 00:00:53.840 |
Not only that, I spent a significant amount of my career helping other people to invest 00:01:07.160 |
I have billed fees and charged fees based upon managing people's money. 00:01:11.680 |
And yet at the time of this recording of this show, I do not currently own any publicly 00:01:18.420 |
I don't currently own any publicly traded securities. 00:01:20.520 |
Although I'll expand and share with you a little bit of some additional texture behind 00:01:27.600 |
But today I want to talk about what I don't miss about investing in the stock market. 00:01:32.160 |
If we look back and we think about kind of where we are as a people, the stock market 00:01:40.320 |
You know, right now, stock market up, down, every single way. 00:01:43.560 |
It just seems like no matter how you go through it, every single day, there's more headlines 00:01:48.320 |
and the stock market is driving almost everything. 00:01:51.980 |
And yet I become convinced the longer I've been a financial planner, that I become more 00:01:55.960 |
and more convinced that the stock market is not for everyone. 00:01:59.200 |
And so what I want to do in today's show is I want to share with you some details as to 00:02:03.820 |
some of the ideas that I used to hold about in stock investing that I don't hold any longer, 00:02:09.880 |
as well as share with you kind of where I'm at. 00:02:13.280 |
And I need to just go ahead and give you the whole story from the beginning, which is fairly 00:02:18.320 |
Right now, as I record this right now, I'm not sure where I'll wind up being over the 00:02:25.160 |
I'm not sure whether I'll wind up going back into the stock market or staying out of the 00:02:31.960 |
I've been wrestling with that for quite a while, trying to think about different solutions. 00:02:36.400 |
What I have learned is this, and this is my basic thesis. 00:02:39.480 |
The more time that I spend out of the stock market, the less I miss it. 00:02:44.740 |
And the more excited I am about other opportunities. 00:02:48.020 |
When I think about the other investment opportunities that I have and that you have, I become increasingly 00:02:55.760 |
convinced that the stock market is really good at making investment advisors a lot of 00:03:00.860 |
money, but it's not so good at making individual investors a lot of money. 00:03:07.220 |
Now I'm not going to make an extreme case in this show. 00:03:10.420 |
I'm not going to try to say, "Oh, you can't make any money in the stock market." 00:03:14.100 |
I'm not going to say that nobody should invest in the stock market. 00:03:17.100 |
You should sell it all and go buy timberland. 00:03:20.820 |
What I'm going to try to do is lay out more of my view, which is kind of a nuanced view, 00:03:25.220 |
which comes down to the fact that the reason why you associate investing primarily with 00:03:30.380 |
the stock market has more to do with the easy marketability of stocks than it does with 00:03:36.660 |
the inherent benefits for you as an individual investor. 00:03:40.220 |
So here's what I've learned in my years of working as a financial advisor. 00:03:44.140 |
I started in 2008, so 12 years now as a financial advisor in some form or another. 00:03:50.140 |
I don't currently hold any investment advisory licenses. 00:03:52.820 |
I don't hold any securities licenses anymore. 00:03:56.700 |
But I had all that stuff and I still consider myself a financial advisor, although I try 00:04:01.020 |
to be a little bit thoughtful with how I use that term. 00:04:06.060 |
I don't make suggestions to people to buy or sell securities. 00:04:15.340 |
And they're really easy for me to make a living selling. 00:04:19.020 |
But when you actually pull back from that and you think about the whole broad scope 00:04:24.420 |
of investment opportunities, you find that there are a lot more opportunities than most 00:04:33.280 |
Usually over the years I've learned that I need to be very careful. 00:04:35.580 |
When I ask people about their 401k and what investments they have, they automatically 00:04:41.260 |
They automatically think, and let me even be specific because there are stock markets 00:04:45.420 |
They automatically think US publicly traded securities, US stock market, the New York 00:04:53.140 |
They kind of automatically conflate this word investment to mean stock market. 00:04:57.780 |
And I believe that that is more due to, again, the influence of those of us who have worked 00:05:04.820 |
in the securities business than it is to how individuals should think about it. 00:05:11.820 |
Sorry for all the disclaimers up front, but I do want to be cautious. 00:05:16.260 |
I'm not here to do an expose on the industry. 00:05:21.380 |
I could probably be a stockbroker again in the future at some point in time. 00:05:25.140 |
I have some ways that I've thought about that I think I could do that. 00:05:28.380 |
But what I want to do is just give you a little perspective on the subject. 00:05:31.360 |
Because when I say the word investment, I don't believe you should just automatically 00:05:35.740 |
conflate that word investment with buying stocks. 00:05:39.900 |
I think those should be different things and you should consider them differently. 00:05:56.020 |
In fact, for most people, investing in your education is going to be the single best investment 00:06:05.220 |
Notice that when I said invest in an education, you automatically thought invest in a college 00:06:13.700 |
Well, you thought that because you've been effectively marketed to over the years by 00:06:18.060 |
colleges, admissions advisors, your friends, your parents, advisors. 00:06:26.460 |
You've been marketed to by financial planning magazines that have said if you want to invest 00:06:31.860 |
in your child, you should buy a college fund for them and you should fund it with stocks. 00:06:39.940 |
You can invest in your education in many ways. 00:06:42.580 |
For example, I invest in my education by reading books. 00:06:47.940 |
I invest in my education by hiring mentors and hiring coaches. 00:06:52.340 |
You can invest in your education by starting businesses and getting yourself in a situation 00:06:58.820 |
Even if it costs me a bunch of money, I'm going to go ahead and focus on starting something 00:07:05.020 |
You can invest in a marketing degree by going to college or you can go and start a business 00:07:09.820 |
and invest in your marketing education by learning how to market your business effectively. 00:07:14.260 |
Both of those, in my opinion, are really quality investments that you should, can, and should 00:07:19.340 |
But when I say invest in your education, you think college. 00:07:22.860 |
Same reason when I say invest money, you think stocks. 00:07:27.980 |
The reason I started with invest in education is because most of the time, we would usually, 00:07:33.100 |
for thinking clearly, we would recognize that it's more important for you to invest in your 00:07:37.660 |
education and building your earning skills than it is for you to buy stocks. 00:07:42.500 |
If I were presenting to you a 16-year-old who was making, I don't know, $8 an hour at 00:07:47.300 |
some dead-end job, and they came to you and said, "I've saved $200. 00:07:53.780 |
You would never tell that 18-year-old, whatever age I said, you would never tell that young 00:07:57.860 |
person that the secret of what you should do with your $200 is to go and buy a stock. 00:08:05.820 |
You would say, "You need to invest it into your earning ability. 00:08:09.260 |
You need to invest it into yourself because that's a good investment." 00:08:12.660 |
Now there could be other things that are worthy investments that give you financial returns 00:08:21.320 |
For example, let's say somebody doesn't have a car. 00:08:26.240 |
They should probably invest in a car or at the very least, probably invest in a bicycle 00:08:29.980 |
because that vehicle might open up totally new earning possibilities to them. 00:08:34.940 |
That vehicle might open up a totally better lifestyle for them. 00:08:40.780 |
We talk about investing in your home, and that's perfectly reasonable. 00:08:45.660 |
But that's just scratching the tip of the investments that are available. 00:08:49.300 |
So here's what came, what bothered me when I was a financial advisor. 00:08:53.220 |
I started to discover that I didn't have a lot of success stories of my clients becoming 00:08:59.020 |
wealthy because they invested in my stocks that I sold them. 00:09:07.420 |
What I realized is I was good at helping clients who were already wealthy invest their portfolios 00:09:14.300 |
We put together a portfolio of mutual funds and I would say, "Listen, you've got a million 00:09:18.460 |
dollars or you've got three million dollars or whatever you've got. 00:09:24.020 |
But I wasn't very good at helping them get rich. 00:09:28.700 |
That process brought me to believe that financial advisors and the financial advice industry 00:09:37.300 |
is better at helping people who are rich stay rich and get a little bit richer without having 00:09:44.260 |
to work every day and also helping people who, well that's it. 00:09:53.460 |
They're better at helping those people who are rich get a little richer and stay richer 00:09:57.060 |
without having to work every day than they are at helping people who are not rich get 00:10:01.620 |
I came to realize that when I looked at it, the two things that always happened that helped 00:10:07.340 |
my clients to actually become rich was number one, they had a high income job and/or number 00:10:17.100 |
Because if my clients could have a high income job, they could save money, put money in their 00:10:21.860 |
401K and over a course of decades become millionaires or if they had a highly profitable business, 00:10:27.020 |
they could have enough money either through income or through eventually selling the business 00:10:32.580 |
But without those two things, without a high paying job or without a good business, people 00:10:39.700 |
didn't really wind up becoming all that rich at least not through stock investing. 00:10:45.020 |
Now is that because it can't work, that it can't happen? 00:10:49.780 |
You could have somebody, if you're a financial advisor, you could have a client that you 00:10:52.660 |
start working with when the client is 22 years old, just came out of college, you open up 00:10:57.140 |
a Roth IRA, they put a few thousand dollars in it and maybe if 40 years later you're still 00:11:01.020 |
working with that client, they might have a million dollars, maybe. 00:11:05.520 |
But the realistic answer is you're probably not going to be working with that client 40 00:11:09.220 |
years later because as a financial advisor, you're always upgrading your clients, you're 00:11:12.820 |
always changing out your client base and you're moving up to wealthier clients who give you 00:11:16.600 |
more opportunities for your business as a financial advisor. 00:11:19.540 |
So it's not that it can't work, it's just that it's not the most effective. 00:11:21.820 |
What you need is a high paying job and/or you need a business. 00:11:26.780 |
And that's why the number one prospecting pool for the vast majority of financial advisors, 00:11:30.980 |
for most of us, is high income professionals and business owners because there's opportunity 00:11:38.940 |
Well if that's the case, I think that we should spend a lot more time helping people to develop 00:11:42.580 |
a high income and/or helping people to develop a profitable business than we do selling stocks. 00:11:49.380 |
But unfortunately the whole business is built on selling stocks. 00:11:54.340 |
So what's my personal experience with the stock market? 00:11:57.340 |
Well the first thing is when I was 18 years old, I sat down on my 18th birthday and opened 00:12:03.060 |
I don't even know what mutual fund it was, I just bought a mutual fund. 00:12:05.860 |
And I was a nerd, I was really interested in financial advice, I was really interested 00:12:10.580 |
in how I could become wealthy, I really wanted to become wealthy. 00:12:14.820 |
And so I sat down at an early age and I started reading the books. 00:12:19.060 |
I would read books on mutual fund investing and I started with the mainstream personal 00:12:23.780 |
I read, what's the one, Automatic Millionaire, I would read the Automatic Millionaire by 00:12:33.340 |
Or I would read the Lazy Man's Guide to Investing, it's all about passive index fund investing. 00:12:40.060 |
I would read Jack Bogle's books and what I could find. 00:12:43.660 |
But mostly at the basic, what I call the personal finance, the consumer level of personal finance. 00:12:50.260 |
And as a consumer I would put myself in a situation where I said, "Okay, the way I'm 00:12:53.460 |
going to build wealth is I would buy mutual funds and I would put them in an IRA and I 00:13:00.060 |
Well fast forward a number of years, in 2008 I started working as a financial advisor. 00:13:03.940 |
I started with getting insurance licenses, became an insurance salesman, selling life 00:13:08.700 |
insurance, disability income insurance, long term care insurance. 00:13:11.980 |
Then I went ahead and got my securities licenses, a series six, and I forget all the numbers, 00:13:15.700 |
63, and then I later got a 65 and became a registered investment advisor representative 00:13:19.900 |
or whatever it's called, it's a number of years ago. 00:13:24.100 |
I had a certified financial planning designation, a chartered financial consultant. 00:13:30.060 |
I wound up getting a master's degree in financial planning. 00:13:32.420 |
I never did investment focused specific specialties. 00:13:36.580 |
I didn't become a chartered financial analyst. 00:13:39.100 |
I didn't spend time to get any of the specific investment management designations. 00:13:45.260 |
I was always more interested in personal financial planning. 00:13:49.100 |
And generally I should know what I'm talking about. 00:13:57.100 |
Although I wasn't choosing what stocks were in them, I was just serving as an interface 00:14:00.260 |
between clients and kind of the back end investment advisors for our firm. 00:14:08.900 |
I surrendered all my securities licenses so that I could do what I'm doing right now, 00:14:14.060 |
I became frustrated with trying to be locked behind a paywall where everything I had to 00:14:18.500 |
say, sorry, a legal wall where everything I had to say had to go through a legal department. 00:14:24.300 |
The way that it works, if a financial advisor is going to do what I'm doing right now, the 00:14:28.380 |
financial advisor has to write a script of everything they're going to say. 00:14:31.020 |
They send that script off to their legal department, get it approved by their legal department. 00:14:34.300 |
The legal department says, "Okay, you can say this. 00:14:38.540 |
Then they go and they do the media appearance. 00:14:44.620 |
Then that recording all goes onto the company servers and has to be saved forever. 00:14:47.700 |
It's all kind of part of the deal because if you're going to be in the financial advice 00:14:50.500 |
industry and you're going to get the licenses, that's the deal you sign up for. 00:14:57.300 |
I walked away from that business, got rid of all my licenses, surrendered everything. 00:15:01.820 |
I no longer have any licenses and haven't had any since about 2014. 00:15:07.060 |
Over the years, I've watched to see how I would change because even though I didn't 00:15:11.420 |
have any licenses, I still had an intense degree of loyalty to the industry, to my comrades, 00:15:18.100 |
to my friends who are advisors, to everything. 00:15:21.460 |
Over the years, that loyalty has kind of changed a little bit. 00:15:25.420 |
It's not that I don't have that sense of loyalty or that sense of affinity. 00:15:30.500 |
I haven't been involved in that in a very long time. 00:15:33.380 |
Because it's a past life, then I don't think about it much. 00:15:38.220 |
It's not something that I pay much attention to. 00:15:43.500 |
But in the present life, I have a little bit more perspective. 00:15:47.780 |
Over the years, as I've thought about it, I grew more and more dissatisfied with stock 00:15:55.260 |
A number of years ago, around about, I would say, 2015 or '16, I was in a position where 00:16:01.300 |
I looked around and I just thought, "I'm frustrated with stock investing." 00:16:06.140 |
Number one is I was working on building a business. 00:16:09.100 |
What I realized is that I had far more profit potential from building a new business, a 00:16:14.500 |
business that was not connected to work for time, a business that had a global opportunity, 00:16:18.700 |
the business that had a potential revenue potential of unspeakably large, extremely 00:16:24.620 |
I realized the single best investment that I can make is to invest into my business, 00:16:30.020 |
I said, "That business can be so much more profitable than anything else. 00:16:36.300 |
No matter what it takes, I'm going to go all in on that." 00:16:39.020 |
I moved money to cash, partly for safety because I didn't want to have volatility. 00:16:42.940 |
I figured if I spend every dollar in my savings on building this new business, and if the 00:16:49.820 |
If I keep all the money as emergency funds and savings, just in case I need it, and that 00:16:54.640 |
allows me the safety to build a big business, it'll be worth it. 00:16:59.060 |
But along the way, I'd become frustrated with some of the ethics of stock market investing. 00:17:04.340 |
I wasn't focused on the specific volatility or scared about the market goes down or it's 00:17:10.340 |
I just was frustrated with the ethics of big companies. 00:17:13.860 |
The number one thing that has really bothered me over the years is how modern capitalism 00:17:23.500 |
Just no question has become, in my opinion, unquestionably crony capitalism. 00:17:28.780 |
I realized that the single most important job description for most companies is their 00:17:38.620 |
I find it utterly offensive that seemingly the single first thing that a company wants 00:17:46.720 |
to do is get a lobbyist so they can go in and get the laws adjusted. 00:17:51.260 |
There are two aspects to this that I find really offensive. 00:17:55.240 |
Number one is that companies constantly lobby for rules that add more regulation to their 00:18:05.060 |
You think I said what I didn't mean to say, but I meant it. 00:18:08.060 |
Companies lobby for more regulation for their industry so that they can keep their competitors 00:18:18.860 |
Because as you look at the US economy, you look at a mature economy like the US American 00:18:23.460 |
economy, and you look around and you consider what's actually there, it's very profitable 00:18:30.500 |
for most large companies to not have small upstart competitors. 00:18:35.260 |
This leads to a calcified, locked in, repressed almost economic system. 00:18:43.340 |
It's what you see in the United States, where there's almost nowhere in the broader US economy 00:18:47.340 |
that you look for and you find innovation, except usually in some area of internet work, 00:18:55.260 |
a digital company of some kind, because there are just fewer regulations. 00:18:59.500 |
You see Facebook last year when they're called before Congress saying, "Come out, regulate 00:19:05.020 |
Zuckerberg is sitting there saying, "Regulate us, regulate us, pass laws." 00:19:08.620 |
Well, I don't want to be too ... I don't want to try to say what Zuckerberg thinks, but 00:19:13.100 |
it wouldn't hurt Facebook to have some pretty intense regulation right now. 00:19:17.380 |
Facebook could deal with any regulation because they're highly profitable. 00:19:20.660 |
They can afford to pay all the people to dot everything out and take care of everything. 00:19:24.740 |
It's Facebook's competitors who would be hurt by increased regulation. 00:19:27.780 |
But you look at the US economy and you say, "There's almost no area of excitement." 00:19:31.900 |
What are you actually excited about with the broader US economy? 00:19:40.340 |
For example, I pay attention to the electric car marketplace, but it's so unfathomably, 00:19:45.100 |
impossibly expensive for a new car company to come out that you have just a tiny number 00:19:51.440 |
You have Tesla, and then you have Rivian, who gets invested in it. 00:19:54.660 |
Without this big, huge investment, they can't make it. 00:19:57.940 |
Now, you go back and you compare that to the dynamism of a US economy of a century ago, 00:20:05.180 |
You had dynamic development in all areas of the economy. 00:20:09.020 |
I'm convinced that there's nothing that's fundamentally changed about the potential. 00:20:15.500 |
It's just simply that the regulatory environment is so intense that it leads to really very 00:20:20.380 |
modest ability for companies to change, to adapt. 00:20:23.140 |
Again, the place where you usually see it is in digital markets. 00:20:26.260 |
That really bothers me because big companies, I'm personally convinced. 00:20:30.100 |
I can't prove it, but I'm personally persuaded at the moment. 00:20:33.040 |
Big companies use regulation as a tool to keep from being competed with by small upstart 00:20:41.020 |
The other thing that's really offensive is that the companies just directly lobby for 00:20:46.260 |
changes and changes in laws that are going to help them and help their own business models. 00:20:52.260 |
Let me give you an example just from today's Wall Street Journal. 00:20:58.900 |
You see right here, when you look at the Wall Street Journal and you think about what's 00:21:05.780 |
First, you had all these companies that put themselves in a situation where they were 00:21:11.540 |
broke in no time at all, where they couldn't even handle three weeks of no business before 00:21:20.120 |
all of a sudden they come crying for handouts. 00:21:23.020 |
You have trillions of dollars being given to bail out giant Wall Street corporations. 00:21:29.980 |
Thankfully, some of that money, some of the money is filtering down to smaller businesses 00:21:35.180 |
as well who don't usually have the lobbying power that large corporations have, but trillions 00:21:42.020 |
What's the first thing that you see now when you look constantly at the news? 00:21:45.940 |
You see that number one, one of the basic focuses is that we want more. 00:21:50.940 |
Wall Street Journal article headline, "Lobbyists Press Congress for Last Chance at Coronavirus 00:22:01.300 |
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Says New Help Should Be Tied to Liability 00:22:05.580 |
Lead, "Lobbyists for business groups, labor unions, and non-profit associations are shifting 00:22:10.700 |
into high gear as Congress considers what could be a final round of aid to combat the 00:22:15.540 |
economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic." 00:22:19.140 |
So first it talks about, the article talks about non-profits, but then it says this, 00:22:22.460 |
"Other organizations are seeking relief from measures that were aimed at preventing 00:22:26.260 |
coronavirus aid to companies that have lots of debt. 00:22:29.060 |
Saks Fifth Avenue thinks government rules that prohibit federal assistance to firms 00:22:32.800 |
with too much debt don't take into account the vast real estate holdings and other collateral 00:22:39.660 |
Such a change could help Saks and others qualify for federal help. 00:22:43.780 |
Saks has hired a former top Senate aide as a lobbyist and hopes to win the support of 00:22:54.260 |
Saks Fifth Avenue's flagship department store is in Manhattan." 00:22:57.260 |
So you see, Saks Fifth Avenue putting themselves in a situation where what they feel like they 00:23:01.920 |
have to do to succeed in this time is to hire a lobbyist to change the laws so that they 00:23:05.820 |
can get some government money, get some government bailout money. 00:23:10.940 |
Men's grooming company Harry's Incorporated has hired a lobbyist close to President Trump 00:23:16.060 |
to try to change another provision that makes it harder for startup companies to qualify 00:23:21.860 |
New companies can take years to be profitable, making them ineligible for government help 00:23:26.060 |
due to a rule that prevents loans to failing businesses. 00:23:29.460 |
Harry's doesn't qualify for federal assistance under that rule, even though its business 00:23:36.540 |
Last year, a rival grooming company tried to buy it for $1.4 billion. 00:23:41.840 |
On April 13, Harry's hired lobbyist Brian Ballard, a top fundraiser for Mr. Trump's 00:23:48.460 |
Joshua Kushner, the brother of Mr. Trump's son-in-law and advisor, is a Harry's director 00:23:57.860 |
I do appreciate the Wall Street Journal making it obvious that this is a bipartisan issue, 00:24:06.900 |
And so you've got this constant revolving door where it goes from Wall Street to Pennsylvania 00:24:12.540 |
Avenue, Wall Street to Congress, back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. 00:24:22.380 |
Continuing on, who else is going to get involved? 00:24:24.260 |
More than 100 retailers, commercial real estate firms, and insurers want to create what they're 00:24:27.700 |
calling America's Recovery Fund, which would build on the already historic economic rescue 00:24:34.060 |
The coalition, which will formally launch on Monday, wants more federal support over 00:24:37.780 |
a longer time to more companies, said Trevor Hanger, the group's research director. 00:24:42.060 |
"Businesses across numerous sectors are not going to make it without additional support," 00:24:45.900 |
said Mr. Hanger, whose coalition includes blah, blah, blah. 00:24:48.860 |
The existing PPP program is aimed at getting businesses to retain or rehire employees. 00:24:53.120 |
The coalition contends the needs of consumer-facing businesses and their landlords are more complex 00:24:58.260 |
and require grants that can be spent over a much longer period of time, with the flexibility 00:25:02.760 |
to spend more on expenses like rent, utilities, taxes, and debt. 00:25:10.180 |
You see that it seems like almost the first situation, first thing that the companies 00:25:14.140 |
did in this most recent catastrophe was run crying to Congress and say, "We need money." 00:25:19.940 |
Didn't even take a few weeks before everyone says, "We need money." 00:25:23.220 |
Now, is there an ethical argument saying, "Well, the government shut us down and therefore 00:25:29.780 |
I don't buy it, but I grant that that's a legitimate argument. 00:25:33.580 |
But what's amazing is that this is the first response, seemingly, of everybody. 00:25:40.460 |
One of the things that I do, most of what I have to say about the stock market is not 00:25:44.940 |
It's not saying, "Well, in the long term, the investment perspective is going to be 00:25:49.500 |
bad," although I'm going to make a little bit of that argument later. 00:25:53.980 |
But this is one of the many reasons why the investment opportunities are so bad, because 00:25:58.980 |
you have this calcified structure where you have these huge corporations that are so accustomed 00:26:05.780 |
to and reliant on government money, and you never have a clearing of the decks. 00:26:12.380 |
All these companies should have gone bankrupt, and then newer competitors should have come 00:26:16.100 |
in and bought out their assets, but they didn't do it. 00:26:29.300 |
What's needed is bankruptcy for all of these companies that can't make it. 00:26:32.940 |
All of their assets will be sold off at auction to somebody else who will come in and start 00:26:36.620 |
again, and that would be the thing that would actually lead to economic growth. 00:26:39.960 |
But instead, we've got this calcified corporate crony, corrupt—I'm lacking more C words, 00:26:48.380 |
but we've got this system that just leads to tremendous inefficiencies and is leading 00:27:00.260 |
Time will tell whether that prediction turns out to be true or not. 00:27:07.240 |
I don't like to be involved in it, and I find it really, really revolting. 00:27:13.060 |
When you have a society that says, "We're going to steal money from citizens for taxes. 00:27:22.640 |
Then we're going to use that tax money to put in place laws that are lobbied for." 00:27:27.940 |
And the laws are in many cases written by large corporations who can hire successful 00:27:33.020 |
lobbying firms to get their position through. 00:27:36.500 |
We're going to reward this utter corruption of this back-and-forth flow of going to Congress 00:27:44.180 |
and then going to Wall Street, going to Congress, going to Wall Street, back and forth and back 00:27:49.060 |
And we're going to pay for access to the legislators. 00:27:51.780 |
And then when things go bad, we're not even going to let anybody pay for the price of 00:27:58.580 |
We're going to just step in and bail them out and print more money. 00:28:02.220 |
Anyway, that for me has always been the biggest issue. 00:28:06.100 |
I believe in the value of a free market system. 00:28:08.540 |
I want to compete in an area of open competition. 00:28:15.220 |
I believe that there's something fundamentally valuable about an individual taking the risk. 00:28:19.740 |
That's why I love the Internet, because I can speak on the power of my ideas. 00:28:23.700 |
I can be in a situation where I'm not sitting here saying I'm going to coerce somebody to 00:28:37.100 |
And you can say anything you want in the comments. 00:28:41.420 |
And I love that because it's almost the purest expression of competition where it's the value 00:28:44.640 |
of my ideas and the value of my advice that has to stand on its own. 00:28:49.700 |
How do I, who believes in those values, how do I then turn around and say, "We're going 00:28:54.140 |
to reward this antiquated, calcified, corrupt system, and we're going to say that that's 00:28:58.700 |
the best we can do from an investment perspective?" 00:29:01.180 |
Especially when the investment returns stink and the volatility is off the charts and the 00:29:21.500 |
When I look at the broader market, just the S&P 500, I personally, again, not going to 00:29:26.740 |
try to tell you what to think, but I personally do not like a lot of the businesses that these 00:29:32.260 |
I find them really, really frustrating, the businesses that these companies are in. 00:29:40.660 |
I don't like how many of these companies are involved in war. 00:29:45.140 |
The United States government and the country of the United States of America has been at 00:29:56.420 |
How could it possibly be the case that you have a country that's at war for almost, for 00:30:04.660 |
There's been basically been about a dozen, 12 to 15 years in the history of the US government 00:30:18.660 |
I'm not going to accuse everything of craziness. 00:30:23.460 |
If you're unfamiliar with him, Smedley Butler was the man who wrote most decorated general 00:30:40.660 |
He was a Marine Corps general and had two medals of honor. 00:30:41.660 |
He wrote this incredible book years ago after World War II. 00:30:43.540 |
He wrote this incredible book that was specifically called War is a Racket. 00:30:49.380 |
In that book, he goes through and he shows in that book, specifically, he shows why war 00:30:59.500 |
is a racket and why there's this horrifying commitment to war based upon the finances 00:31:15.500 |
He goes through in that book and he explains how it's all about money. 00:31:19.900 |
Him, again, most decorated, I think soldier, but certainly Marine in history. 00:31:25.580 |
He goes through and he just shows how crazy the whole thing is. 00:31:29.060 |
He shows how even the big wars that most people would agree, like these wars are morally valuable, 00:31:37.500 |
You would say these wars were necessary or they were valuable. 00:31:43.820 |
We don't get to choose and it really doesn't matter. 00:31:46.820 |
What we can be sure of is that they were unquestionably profitable and that they made massive amounts 00:31:55.540 |
You look forward and you say, "Why does the war continue? 00:32:02.740 |
Well, it never ends because it's highly profitable. 00:32:06.060 |
You go through the large companies in the United States of America, you look at Northrop 00:32:12.060 |
You just realize how much of it is based upon war and this promulgation of constant and 00:32:20.540 |
It makes you sick to your stomach, especially when you realize who pays the price. 00:32:24.740 |
Who pays the price is the people who get killed by it, the millions and millions and millions 00:32:32.180 |
Yet here I am profiting as an investor from this. 00:32:39.780 |
That would be an example of the kinds of things that you can consider. 00:32:46.740 |
I think that it's so hard because when you come to any of these issues, we all have family, 00:32:53.100 |
we all have friends who are involved in these things, and it becomes personally troubling. 00:33:05.980 |
It really bothers me because how can I earn money on this system that promotes just extensive 00:33:13.140 |
One of the big concerns I have right now is I feel like everything smells like and feels 00:33:20.980 |
What would happen to the stock market if war took off? 00:33:23.220 |
Well, there'd be some people who would say, "Well, the stock market is going to be bad," 00:33:26.060 |
but most people agree that war is good for an economy. 00:33:28.260 |
It unites a nation and results in let's go and do it. 00:33:31.500 |
There's only a tiny number of us who would buy the overall arguments that things are 00:33:35.980 |
destructive, but what I will say is that although I think war is destructive to an economy, 00:33:43.620 |
There you have that never-ending disconnect between the economy and the stock market. 00:33:48.580 |
It also really bothers me just that the ongoing social activism of some of these huge companies 00:33:54.260 |
because it seems like I'm always on the wrong side of the social activism. 00:33:57.860 |
For example, I'm deeply offended by war for the reasons previously stated. 00:34:04.220 |
I think it's really, really bad, but I believe that there's real value in individuals having 00:34:13.060 |
There's a massive difference between tools of war, tanks and battleships and F-22 fighter 00:34:22.700 |
The difference is the scale and who benefits from them. 00:34:26.420 |
You have a system where the government will spend tens of millions of dollars on an F-22 00:34:30.260 |
or on an aircraft carrier and yet wants to say simultaneously, "We're going to ban AR-15s." 00:34:36.220 |
The Canadian government, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, "We're not going to have AR-15s in 00:34:41.100 |
Well, Justin Trudeau is still going to be protected by AR-15s or the Canadian equivalent, 00:34:44.980 |
military equivalent, and his troops are still going to have it. 00:34:52.820 |
In 2018, Bank of America said, after the Parkland shooting, Bank of America says, "We're going 00:34:57.820 |
to stop producing loans and financing loans for companies that are involved in firearms 00:35:04.420 |
Well, on the one hand, I personally support their right of discrimination. 00:35:08.460 |
I believe that you and I have an absolute unconditional right to run our businesses 00:35:12.680 |
and our lives as we see fit when we're in a voluntary society. 00:35:18.620 |
It just feels like their right to discriminate is everywhere and nobody seems like will give 00:35:24.560 |
much of ... It doesn't seem like they afford the same right to other people. 00:35:32.620 |
Banks and payment providers are actively excluding people from commerce, people that I care about. 00:35:37.580 |
Right now, there have been many Christian ministry organizations who have been canceled 00:35:42.060 |
by PayPal, who have been canceled by Stripe, who have been canceled by their merchant providers 00:35:46.700 |
because they get blacklisted by a social activism organization that disagrees with their position. 00:35:52.340 |
Now, do I personally support the right of discrimination by PayPal and Stripe? 00:35:57.340 |
But it's frustrating to say that now my investments are going to be from these people who are 00:36:02.500 |
discriminated against, people who believe things that I think are really important. 00:36:09.260 |
What about just the involvement of a lot of the organizations and invasions of people's 00:36:15.860 |
Again, we're getting into pretty esoteric territory. 00:36:18.700 |
I'm just giving you some things that are the kinds of things that bother me. 00:36:21.020 |
I wouldn't just pull out of the stock market based on this. 00:36:23.260 |
But you look at what the banks and the finance companies do in response to the Patriot Act 00:36:27.140 |
laws and just the complete destruction of privacy. 00:36:30.780 |
Now, in the United States, is that life and death? 00:36:41.380 |
I find it really frustrating when some of these big companies submit to human rights 00:36:51.980 |
In 2018, Google comes out and I think it was Project Dragonfly is revealed, where Google 00:36:59.500 |
gone back and forth with the Chinese censors over the years about whether or not they were 00:37:05.700 |
going to censor web search and censor different things. 00:37:09.820 |
Google had generally taken a pretty strong anti-censorship track. 00:37:14.620 |
They stood up for what Google professed to believe, right? 00:37:17.860 |
Do no evil and organize and allow access to information. 00:37:22.060 |
Well, in 2018, the information comes out about Project Dragonfly. 00:37:25.020 |
Now, Google is going to facilitate and work with the Chinese government to put themselves 00:37:30.140 |
in a situation where they're going to have a censored version of Google web results. 00:37:37.220 |
But the Chinese government is unspeakably evil. 00:37:41.500 |
They have murdered tens of millions of people and today, today are persecuting and executing 00:37:49.140 |
and imprisoning millions of people in the most immoral and unjust fashion. 00:37:56.820 |
Millions of Christians in China suffer because of the Chinese Communist Party. 00:38:00.100 |
Right now, millions of Muslims, the Uyghur Muslims are being completely devastated, locked 00:38:07.340 |
The Chinese government, let alone even coming out with the coronavirus, COVID-19 and the 00:38:14.020 |
You have one of these just incredibly evil governments and you have Google saying, "Oh, 00:38:21.020 |
Well, we'll talk a lot, but when it comes down to actually making a buck and us being 00:38:25.340 |
excluded from the government, from a huge market, we're going to just roll over on that 00:38:36.140 |
My issue is why should I try to profit from that? 00:38:38.500 |
How can I sleep at night when Google is sitting here saying, "We're going to submit to these 00:38:43.980 |
evil men just so we can make some extra money." 00:38:47.780 |
And I'm supposed to sleep well at night when my brothers and sisters, my Christian brothers 00:38:51.740 |
and sisters are locked in prison right now, when they're being disappeared off the street 00:38:58.240 |
right now, and now I'm going to go to bed at night and say, "Well, at least my 401k 00:39:09.020 |
For me, now again, I know I'm unusually sensitive to these issues. 00:39:15.380 |
I know most people, it doesn't seem to bother them, but it just goes on and on. 00:39:19.140 |
It feels like increasingly, Joshua Sheets in 2020, it feels like almost every move that 00:39:25.260 |
is popular on the broad level is something that's against something that I care about. 00:39:31.020 |
I care deeply about children and the ability for children to grow and to not be, to have 00:39:43.340 |
And yet we live in a world where everything is about marketing to my children's eyeballs 00:39:48.940 |
And I fight day and night to keep their eyeballs free of all that stuff. 00:39:53.860 |
And yet now I'm supposed to say, "Well, I know that this is the fundamental operating 00:39:57.780 |
philosophy of this company, and I'm working to keep my children insulated from the destruction 00:40:03.140 |
of staring at this screen and being totally marketed to and bombarded left, right, and 00:40:09.820 |
But now I'm going to profit from it for other people's children." 00:40:11.900 |
How does that fulfill any kind of ethical standard of... 00:40:24.700 |
It just seems like for me, with the moral positions that I hold and the ethical things 00:40:29.460 |
that I think are pretty clear, whether I'm right or wrong, of course I believe I'm right, 00:40:34.180 |
otherwise I wouldn't believe what I believe, but it seems like at every turn, the majority, 00:40:40.500 |
I don't know if all, but the majority of large publicly traded corporations have official 00:40:51.020 |
And yet I'm supposed to line up and say, "Here, here's the money." 00:40:53.540 |
At the end of the day, I just came to a point, I thought, "How do I get to the end of my 00:41:02.180 |
life and stand before the Lord and say, 'Here's my accounting of what I did with your money, 00:41:14.260 |
And here's all the money that I made on it.'" 00:41:16.660 |
And God says, "Well, what return did you get?" 00:41:23.580 |
The master goes away and Jesus tells the parable and he says, the master goes away on a long 00:41:30.780 |
trip and he comes back and he gives one talent to, depending on which version we use, he 00:41:36.100 |
gives a talent, gives a few talents, 10 talents, gives 20 talents, comes back from the trip 00:41:46.180 |
And I see that parable that Jesus taught as directly applicable to my life. 00:41:51.180 |
When God entrusts money to me and he says, "Here, here's money. 00:41:57.640 |
So I imagine myself standing before the master, right? 00:41:59.620 |
The master comes back from a long trip and I'm standing there saying, "Well, what's the 00:42:06.260 |
Meanwhile, millions of people were murdered around the world, right? 00:42:16.140 |
Millions of teens committed suicide and yet we're going to stand by and profit from it. 00:42:23.100 |
Over time, it just grew and grew and grew to the point where I'm like, "I can't do this." 00:42:29.100 |
Now could I have ever come to that position as when I was a financial advisor? 00:42:33.940 |
I'd like to say I could have, but it would have just meant the complete destruction of 00:42:42.780 |
So it was almost like I needed a few years to detox from it. 00:42:45.780 |
But over the years, for those reasons, I've had all of my investment accounts just sitting 00:42:49.940 |
Now does that mean that I'm fundamentally opposed to investing in stocks? 00:42:54.300 |
There's lots of ways I think to work through handling that. 00:42:57.780 |
There's lots of companies that I'd be proud to own, publicly traded companies that I personally 00:43:04.120 |
But what I came to, as I said, the mass market approach, just buying the mutual fund that 00:43:09.220 |
includes everything, I didn't feel good about it. 00:43:12.060 |
I acknowledge the efficiency of that kind of scenario, but I didn't feel good about 00:43:18.700 |
I came to the realization that I was as blinded to investment opportunities as most of my 00:43:28.820 |
clients because I was trained by this mainstream system that exclusively relied on financial 00:43:40.580 |
What I started to realize over time is that there was a massive world of potential investments, 00:43:46.540 |
a massive world of opportunity that I just wasn't tuned into. 00:43:51.100 |
And so once I walked away from the stock market, I started to realize that there were many 00:43:56.900 |
other areas of investing, many ways I could build huge wealth, invest very effectively, 00:44:04.100 |
and not have some of the ethical concerns that didn't help me to sleep well at night. 00:44:09.900 |
I'm also convinced that a lot of those things are far more profitable. 00:44:13.460 |
Now I'm not at a position yet as a mature investor where I can confidently teach you 00:44:19.660 |
I can teach you some of the academics of one area or another, but I'm not willing to 00:44:23.620 |
say, "Look, here's my investment record," because I haven't done it for long enough. 00:44:27.260 |
I don't have the results to speak for themselves, and I try to speak to things that I actually 00:44:31.380 |
So we can talk about it academically, but I can't say, "Look, you should invest like 00:44:35.860 |
What I can say is that as I have dug in deeper and deeper, I've realized that there's this 00:44:40.620 |
whole world of investment that I never before thought about because I was so focused on 00:44:49.980 |
And when you start opening up your mind to those things, all of a sudden you now turn 00:44:53.100 |
around and you look back at the stock market and you think, "This is crazy. 00:44:57.460 |
You're trying to tell me that this is where I should invest my money? 00:45:00.940 |
You're trying to say that this is the best thing that I can do with my money right now?" 00:45:09.740 |
When you look at it and you think about—I'm sorry for the phone call. 00:45:15.060 |
I'm live streaming the recording of today's show, and usually nobody calls me, but unfortunately 00:45:20.980 |
I'm using all my phones as cameras, and so I'm being interrupted by a phone call here. 00:45:28.640 |
When you look at the stock market and you're open to other opportunities and other ideas, 00:45:33.940 |
it's hard to make a really strong argument for the stock market with the exception of 00:45:40.100 |
Let me make the positive thing about what the stock market, speaking generally, is really 00:45:45.340 |
As I see it, it's basically two things in the modern era. 00:45:49.060 |
Number one, investing in the stock market makes investing really, really easy for people 00:45:57.860 |
It makes it really, really easy in the modern world for people to do. 00:46:06.380 |
You can go to any one of these investment markets, and you can just open an account 00:46:11.700 |
and boom, you can be invested in five minutes in some pretty good investments, speaking 00:46:17.260 |
purely from a financial perspective, broadly diversified, low cost. 00:46:22.260 |
When you go into markets where that level of efficiency does not exist, and you go back 00:46:28.140 |
to a place like the United States where you have that level of access to the market, it's 00:46:35.100 |
It's really sobering because you realize what a stunning achievement it is in market efficiency 00:46:40.540 |
and building out this powerful world of investments where any individual with a smartphone app 00:46:45.580 |
can just open it up and boom, invest into it. 00:46:48.260 |
In the stock market, because of that, it's very efficient. 00:46:55.260 |
You look at the incredible revolution that's happened over the last couple of decades, 00:46:58.540 |
even in just the decline of costs, the decline of costs of investing, the major impact of 00:47:05.780 |
passive investing, of firms that have cut fees. 00:47:11.020 |
When you look at the market, you see how incredibly efficient it is with the tremendous focus, 00:47:16.540 |
the tremendous constant and never-ending focus by the investment analysts. 00:47:24.380 |
The US stock market has succeeded in making investing easy. 00:47:31.260 |
It's worth and important to acknowledge that investing is easier in the United States than 00:47:40.840 |
The other thing that's worth acknowledging is that when you invest in the stock market 00:47:49.940 |
and you invest in mass market mutual funds, you can make a little bit of return, a decent 00:47:55.140 |
level of return, and you can do it with zero input. 00:48:03.320 |
I don't know of any other investment that truly comes close to being passive. 00:48:08.620 |
They talk about, "Well, I'm going to make passive income because I'm going to start 00:48:12.020 |
a YouTube channel and get advertising revenue," or, "I'm going to make passive income because 00:48:16.460 |
I'm going to buy rental houses," or, "I'm going to make passive income because I started 00:48:20.220 |
a network marketing company and I received overrides on the purchases of my downline." 00:48:32.000 |
They're income that necessarily is not directly tied to the work of today, but none of them 00:48:46.780 |
The only thing that I think actually qualifies as passive income specifically is dividends, 00:48:54.420 |
living on the dividends from publicly traded companies and/or living on the dividends and 00:49:04.700 |
Maybe you say, "I'm going to put all my money with American funds, and I'm going 00:49:07.780 |
to spend my dividends from the American funds in mutual funds," or, "I'm going to put 00:49:13.020 |
I'm going to buy the Vanguard total stock market index fund. 00:49:18.980 |
That's genuinely, truly passive, but almost nothing else is. 00:49:23.540 |
You can get a little return from that, broadly speaking. 00:49:27.340 |
You can get a little return for that, and you can do it totally passively. 00:49:32.540 |
I think that there's also ways to do that, that you can generate those results and still 00:49:40.580 |
Maybe your concern is, "I don't want to fund the war," but you can put yourself in a situation 00:49:45.100 |
where you say, "I may not want to fund the war, but I'm happy to spend Coca-Cola dividends. 00:49:54.620 |
They're not financing the war, but I've got dividends from all over the world." 00:49:57.900 |
Totally passive, really, really powerful as a solution. 00:50:01.220 |
But outside of those two things, stock market investing has a whole bunch of downsides. 00:50:06.700 |
The first thing is, although the stock market is generally higher in terms of the overall 00:50:14.340 |
return that you can get than something like putting money in a bank, which is its own 00:50:19.540 |
The war on savers, which I'm convinced contributes over time to, is going to contribute to more 00:50:26.380 |
and more of a destruction of our lives and our finances. 00:50:29.480 |
When you have a society that penalizes savers through inflationary policies and yet doesn't 00:50:36.620 |
open up and forces everyone into stocks, it just makes it really more difficult. 00:50:45.620 |
But in the stock market, you can generate some returns, but you have no competitive 00:50:55.020 |
Because the market is efficient, you pretty much know that, "Okay, the market's efficient, 00:50:58.740 |
and you and I have no competitive advantage." 00:51:01.620 |
There's nothing that you and I can do as individuals to go in and get involved in a particular 00:51:09.420 |
We're stuck in a scenario where we're little fish. 00:51:12.020 |
Now, can you find some little trading opportunity? 00:51:15.740 |
Is there something that you can do where you say, "I've developed a scheme," or, "I've 00:51:18.300 |
developed a philosophy," or, "I'm going to buy these companies," or maybe. 00:51:21.060 |
At the end of the day, there's not really any competitive advantage that you and I have. 00:51:27.140 |
Why should we invest in a market where we have no competitive advantage? 00:51:30.860 |
You have a much bigger competitive advantage in a market that you know, in a market that 00:51:36.580 |
You have a much bigger competitive advantage working as a plumber and building a plumbing 00:51:40.460 |
company because you can go out and say, "Here's what's going to make us really effective at 00:51:44.100 |
plumbing and here's how we're going to compete with everyone," or, "Here's how we're going 00:51:47.180 |
to take and build out a chain of automotive repair shops and make that really profitable." 00:51:51.460 |
When it comes to the stock market, you have no competitive advantage. 00:51:58.660 |
Utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things. 00:52:01.420 |
Why should we go and invest in these areas where we don't have a competitive advantage 00:52:05.300 |
if that costs us investing in another place where you do? 00:52:09.620 |
What I'm convinced, personally, is it costs many investors the willingness to go and invest 00:52:18.100 |
Because they're so used to investing into their IRA or their Roth IRA, people often 00:52:22.940 |
don't ever amass any meaningful wealth and thus they don't look at the world through 00:52:27.180 |
the eyes of an entrepreneur and see the opportunities. 00:52:29.780 |
They look at the world through the eyes of a broke salaryman who has a bunch of money 00:52:33.980 |
and a 401(k) and they don't see how they could get involved in this other business opportunity 00:52:38.620 |
over here because after all, my money is locked in the 401(k) and yeah, I know I could do 00:52:42.500 |
a self-directed 401(k) but that's really hard and my company doesn't allow it. 00:52:46.380 |
They go through life as basically a salaryman without ever applying that entrepreneurial 00:52:53.860 |
mentality to the world and seeing the investment opportunities. 00:52:58.100 |
Somebody will see a house across the street for sale. 00:53:00.580 |
Honestly, for many people, it never enters into their brain, never, that they should 00:53:07.060 |
They don't ever think of it because, "Oh, that's not an investment," or "I don't like 00:53:12.860 |
They don't look to the guy next door to them that's a real estate investor himself and 00:53:20.780 |
I make a whole lot more with very modest risk versus the stock market and have it secured 00:53:27.300 |
by real property instead of something made up. 00:53:35.220 |
I have no competitive advantage and I'm dealing with strangers whose character I cannot assess. 00:53:41.860 |
When you see a company come out, when you see an Enron, the classic Enron and WorldCom, 00:53:48.020 |
what keeps those things from being an everyday story? 00:53:51.060 |
Part of it is due to the very efficient marketplace that people are involved in. 00:53:54.940 |
Part of it is due to the constant scrutiny of the analysts and the news media chasing 00:54:05.060 |
But at the end of the day, you still have no ability to know the people. 00:54:10.540 |
Whereas if you invest closer to home, you can know the people and you can take a bet 00:54:14.060 |
on a person because you know their character. 00:54:29.740 |
It makes sense to me that there is volatility, but the direction of it makes no sense to 00:54:36.780 |
If there's anyone who should know what's going on with the stock market, it should 00:54:42.340 |
I'm not claiming to be the world's greatest analyst. 00:54:49.900 |
But you would think that somebody with a master's degree in financial planning, who was a certified 00:54:55.860 |
financial planner, I'm in the process of reinstating, but it's not reinstated yet, so I can't say 00:55:01.740 |
You would think that somebody like me should know what's going on in the stock market, 00:55:05.260 |
considering I used to make my money telling people to invest in the stock market. 00:55:15.420 |
Now, part of it is, okay, I get that the market, and I would teach. 00:55:18.580 |
If you were calling my Q&A show and you were saying, "Josh, explain the market," I would 00:55:24.460 |
The market is this word that we use to describe the individual decisions of millions and millions 00:55:29.540 |
of people, millions and millions of businesses, funds, all of whom are buying and selling 00:55:35.300 |
It could be somebody's buying or selling because they think the market's going to go down. 00:55:38.640 |
Could be someone's buying and selling because they need money to pay for their kid's college 00:55:42.180 |
Could be someone's buying and selling because their dad died, left them stocks, and now 00:55:46.380 |
We have no idea why, so we just talk about the market." 00:55:49.420 |
But realistically, when you think about the overall themes, it's just hard for me to make 00:55:56.460 |
So we say this thing, "Don't invest in something that you don't understand." 00:56:02.820 |
We say this little aphorism, "Don't invest in something you don't understand." 00:56:09.020 |
We say, "You shouldn't invest in something that you can't explain to your five-year-old." 00:56:13.500 |
And yet when I honestly, genuinely come down to it, and I honestly, genuinely think, "Do 00:56:29.300 |
I know something about it, but I don't understand it. 00:56:33.180 |
And so why am I investing massive levels of money in something that I don't understand? 00:56:42.580 |
I can make the arguments, and I'm not saying sell your stocks. 00:56:46.220 |
I can make some of the arguments for the long term and say, "Here's where things can grow 00:56:58.900 |
Over the last few years, you've seen most stock analysts, most people involved in stock 00:57:03.420 |
analysis have minimized and have put themselves in a situation where they downgraded some 00:57:12.900 |
We think that there's some major headwinds coming up over the long term, and because 00:57:19.420 |
We think the winds are going to be more difficult." 00:57:23.260 |
Vanguard comes out and says, "We know that there are headwinds." 00:57:26.540 |
Jack Bogle, before he died, "Things are going to be more difficult." 00:57:30.060 |
Well, I look at something and I see a lot of reasons why. 00:57:33.140 |
I think one major headwind against US growth and also global growth is going to be the 00:57:40.340 |
plummeting or destruction of population growth, the population decline. 00:57:47.020 |
There's been such a destruction to birth rates that you have this entire economy that was 00:57:52.100 |
predicated upon basically constant and never-ending growth fueled by large birth rates, and you 00:57:56.700 |
see the birth rates are going, "Boof," right off a cliff. 00:57:59.780 |
Now, most of the wealthy nations of the world, including the United States of America, are 00:58:05.580 |
below replacement birth rates, which means you can expect to see population shrinking. 00:58:10.220 |
Is this any kind of overnight thing where all of a sudden it's going to happen right 00:58:14.460 |
It's going to happen and boom, things are going to fall apart? 00:58:18.500 |
But what you do see is this is going to have a long-term impact. 00:58:23.740 |
How do declining birth rates impact the stock market? 00:58:32.420 |
I don't know, because the stock market is this giant amorphous thing made up of thousands 00:58:40.660 |
How do declining birth rates impact Toys R Us? 00:58:43.780 |
Well, they result in the total destruction of Toys R Us. 00:58:47.380 |
I can understand that because people aren't having children, children aren't buying toys, 00:58:51.220 |
the toys that they are buying are often more electronic, more digital, and so physical 00:58:54.800 |
toys is a market that's completely fallen apart and led to the bankruptcy of companies. 00:58:59.620 |
So I can understand a company, or maybe I run a company locally, maybe I have a local 00:59:05.000 |
toy store, now I can understand what the impact is. 00:59:08.060 |
Or I can look and say I run an education company, now I can understand what the impact is. 00:59:12.180 |
So I can chart a trend out and I can think how it impacts my company that I know, but 00:59:16.940 |
I can't bring that over and apply it to the stock market. 00:59:23.460 |
I can only understand companies in the stock market. 00:59:26.460 |
So it goes on and on and on when you think about the lack of understanding. 00:59:32.060 |
But I guess one day I woke up and I said, you know what, now that my paycheck doesn't 00:59:36.300 |
depend upon my pretending that I understand the stock market, I honestly have to acknowledge 00:59:45.500 |
I can make some arguments as to why it's good. 00:59:50.020 |
In the last weeks, I have encouraged family members to keep their mutual funds. 00:59:54.540 |
I'm not saying sell out of mutual funds, but for me as an investor, why should that be 01:00:03.220 |
Final train of reasoning where you realize the stock market is just woefully not nearly 01:00:15.740 |
About the only thing I get from investing in the stock market is financial return. 01:00:25.180 |
But investing in so many other areas gives me additional returns. 01:00:29.460 |
For example, pretend I live in New York City. 01:00:31.860 |
Well, I can invest into mutual funds in my IRA. 01:00:49.740 |
I can also lend money to a friend just to make sure I don't get the prohibited person's 01:00:55.940 |
But I can also self-direct my IRA and I can lend money to a friend and that friend can 01:01:00.780 |
purchase a rental house in Florida and then simultaneously my friend can lend me money 01:01:07.060 |
from his IRA to purchase a rental house in Florida. 01:01:10.660 |
So I've established a source of financing from my IRA. 01:01:13.420 |
We'll choose some rental houses and then once a year I need to go to Florida to check on 01:01:18.020 |
my rental house and so now my travel expenses to check on my investments are now going to 01:01:22.540 |
be deductible to me and my friend might also choose that week for him to go and check on 01:01:28.780 |
his rental house and we'll go and during the day I'll work on my rental house. 01:01:34.060 |
Notice I'm not saying I'm specifically steering clear of a prohibited transaction because 01:01:39.420 |
I'm not working on my rental house that my IRA owns. 01:01:41.860 |
I'm working on my rental house that my friend's IRA has a mortgage on that lent me. 01:01:46.740 |
So I'm there working in the daytime on my rental house and then at nighttime we can 01:01:51.700 |
go down to the tiki bar and hang out together and have a nice time together. 01:01:56.260 |
I can't do that with mutual funds at least not in a tax efficient way and oh by the way 01:02:00.500 |
the returns on that rental house depending on what I do I can juice those returns by 01:02:04.860 |
actually applying all the techniques of real estate investing. 01:02:07.380 |
I can juice those returns by putting myself in a situation where I just dramatically expand 01:02:17.660 |
I can go into markets that are far more interesting, far more profitable than Florida. 01:02:21.460 |
There's plenty of investors in Florida but I can go into markets all around the world 01:02:30.100 |
I can do some things in ways that should over time dramatically enhance my returns. 01:02:35.260 |
One of the most fascinating things to me that I've been studying a lot is just banking rates 01:02:40.220 |
You wind up stuck like in the United States or in the United Kingdom. 01:02:44.460 |
You wind up stuck in these banking situations where you get no return on your money because 01:02:49.100 |
you're living in a calcified economy with low interest rates because the Fed is desperately 01:03:00.780 |
Meanwhile you can't get any return just on your savings. 01:03:04.180 |
But if you go around the world there are all kinds of markets around the world where they'll 01:03:07.220 |
actually pay you a return on your savings in the bank. 01:03:16.360 |
My goal was not to sit down and record a screed of everything wrong with it. 01:03:20.260 |
The stock market is good at giving you easy ways to invest money and it's good at giving 01:03:27.140 |
you something of a return maybe over the long term with zero input from you. 01:03:34.980 |
So if you are a high income professional and you say my day job is fine. 01:03:43.140 |
I don't want to go and invest in timberland in Nicaragua. 01:03:49.500 |
I just want to work my day job, earn my money, put money in my 401k and relax. 01:03:53.580 |
Well the stock market is going to be the best solution for that. 01:03:58.460 |
But there's a percentage of us, I don't know what that percentage is, but there's a percentage 01:04:02.340 |
of us who are just involved in that automatic system by default. 01:04:11.860 |
Not because we chose it, but just that's the default option. 01:04:17.220 |
And so what I would tell you is that from one guy who went into that automatic default 01:04:22.220 |
system, I went into it as a default system as a Roth IRA investor when I was a teenager 01:04:31.740 |
I went into that default system as a mainstream financial advisor. 01:04:36.780 |
And as one guy who's come out of it fairly slowly and set out and kind of charted for 01:04:42.780 |
myself the radical personal finance approach, when I see the wealth of options that are 01:04:49.860 |
available beyond that, I have no incentive to go back. 01:04:58.540 |
And when you see the costs that come with it, right, the crazy volatility for reasons 01:05:03.500 |
that you can't be sure of, the impenetrability of the markets, you sit back and you watch 01:05:12.100 |
I know, right now, I know how well my investments are doing because I understand them. 01:05:18.500 |
And this is the first market crash that I didn't have money in the stock market. 01:05:21.500 |
And as I've tried to make very clear, it wasn't because I timed it. 01:05:24.660 |
Respect to those who want to do that, that was not my thing. 01:05:34.620 |
And even if I don't get as good of a result, which I think is probably unlikely in time, 01:05:40.340 |
And I feel good about investments contributing to society instead of being destructive to 01:05:49.940 |
In the future, I want to invest in a lot more private businesses. 01:05:52.340 |
I haven't figured out how to do it effectively yet. 01:05:56.740 |
But I want to invest in businesses that actually help their neighbors and serve their neighbors 01:06:00.740 |
instead of enslave their neighbors and put their neighbors into debt. 01:06:04.520 |
I want to invest in businesses that lead to peace and prosperity, not to war and destruction. 01:06:11.580 |
And I want to invest in businesses that are on a good moral standard instead of corrupting 01:06:27.620 |
Just that at the end of my life, I don't want my investments to be an area that doesn't 01:06:35.660 |
I want my investments to be an area that I'm proud of. 01:06:38.580 |
I don't want to sit back at the end of my life and say, "Yeah, yeah, Lord, I made some 01:06:44.780 |
I want to sit back and at the end of my life be proud of what I built. 01:06:52.060 |
I always think of a guy like, I don't know, Munger and Buffett, right? 01:06:58.380 |
Buffett and Munger are proud of what they've built because they built a giant business 01:07:03.800 |
that has a legacy and a lasting legacy and they built this culture around it. 01:07:11.980 |
Many entrepreneurs get to the end of their life, they're proud of what they built. 01:07:18.180 |
At the end of my life, I want to be proud of what I've built. 01:07:22.220 |
I want something that's going to be handed down throughout the generations of my family. 01:07:30.280 |
I want there to be a sense of identity, a sense of, "This is us." 01:07:40.540 |
I don't see any way to get that with some shares of an index fund. 01:07:45.500 |
I see a way to get that with a vineyard in Argentina. 01:07:51.140 |
I see a way to get that with an office building in Miami. 01:07:57.460 |
I see a way to get that with a farm in Mexico. 01:08:01.860 |
I don't see a way to get there with ... I see a way to get there with radical personal 01:08:07.380 |
Maybe we spin off a bunch of businesses in the coming decades. 01:08:12.820 |
But I see a way to get there with a sense of pride. 01:08:16.980 |
Having a sense of pride in my investments, I've realized, is something that I really 01:08:20.980 |
care about and that I really want more of in my life. 01:08:24.740 |
It's much more satisfying than the disgust that I used to feel when I opened the pages 01:08:32.540 |
I'd open the screen of the Wall Street Journal and read about the latest shenanigans on Wall 01:08:43.140 |
That's all I got to say, but that's my answer on why I don't miss investing in the stock 01:08:52.540 |
What I would encourage you, though, is think about it. 01:08:56.940 |
More and more, I've become convinced that if you think about your decisions very carefully, 01:09:02.340 |
at the end of the day, you can often be prouder of those decisions. 01:09:07.900 |
And whether you make the same choice or not, at least it was an examined decision. 01:09:11.100 |
There's the old quote, because Socrates, "An unexamined life is not worth living." 01:09:14.420 |
Well, I think there's a real sense of truth in that, that an examined life is really nice. 01:09:20.780 |
And so when you examine the basics of your life, you examine where you live, you examine 01:09:25.020 |
how you earn an income, and you examine how you invest your money, when you wind up doing 01:09:29.600 |
it over again, you'll probably feel happier about it. 01:09:33.300 |
What I found for me is that although I think I'll buy more stocks in the future, I think 01:09:38.540 |
I will, I don't think I'll ever go back to that default approach. 01:09:46.180 |
Thank you for listening to Radical Personal Finance. 01:09:48.420 |
If you haven't subscribed to the podcast, please make sure you pull open your podcast 01:09:53.020 |
During the month of May, we're testing out live streaming. 01:09:58.780 |
Hopefully the internet connection worked out, but I've live streamed the entire show here 01:10:01.960 |
on Facebook and on YouTube and on Periscope, so feel free to check out those. 01:10:06.420 |
We're live streaming at the very least Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, 01:10:14.980 |
In future live streams, I'll interact more with the audience, so I would invite you to 01:10:17.780 |
come and join me on Facebook, facebook.com/radicalpersonalfinance. 01:10:20.940 |
Like the page there, and you'll find those details. 01:10:23.100 |
Thank you for listening, and I'll be back with you very soon. 01:10:28.580 |
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