US Job Growth Revised Down by 818K!
00:00:00.000 | You know the range of how many jobs they would take away for a variety of reasons, maybe the largest is the birth-death model for businesses,
00:00:08.100 | was going to be somewhere between 350,000 and 1 million. It comes in at 818,000.
00:00:15.500 | The economic data that comes out keeps getting re-forecast down, so they put out a provisional number or an estimate, and then when they finalize the number three months or six months later,
00:00:25.600 | it always seems to go in one direction. We've seen this over and over again with new jobs being re-forecast down, and we saw this with the Q1 GDP.
00:00:35.100 | We're in a low-key recession, so I think that we're going to probably go through a couple of very difficult revisions of old data.
00:00:43.300 | The thing to remember about non-farm payrolls isn't as much what the number is, but if you actually look to the number of times it then gets revised,
00:00:51.700 | the reality is that these things get revised constantly, and right now we're in this trend where we are overestimating and revising down.