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Welcome to Radical Personal Finance, a show dedicated to providing you with the knowledge, 00:00:03.880 |
skills, insights, and encouragement you need to live a rich and meaningful life now, while 00:00:08.040 |
building a plan for financial freedom in 10 years or less. 00:00:10.760 |
My name is Josh Reichits and today we wrap up our three-part series on financial lessons 00:00:22.480 |
Today part three, financial lessons from the current crisis in the United States. 00:00:30.520 |
I wouldn't generally use it because I don't think we're living in a crisis, but there 00:00:35.000 |
are certainly many yellow and red warning lights on all sides. 00:00:41.280 |
You have a few examples here for you to consider. 00:00:44.360 |
Number one, of course, you have significantly elevated levels of inflation based upon what 00:00:49.680 |
we've been accustomed to over previous years. 00:00:52.520 |
Right now the most recent median CPI figures that are available show that the median inflation 00:01:04.100 |
That's a significantly higher inflation rate than we are accustomed to dealing with in 00:01:11.880 |
You see the practical effect of that on all sides and you see concerns about the future, 00:01:21.360 |
In addition, related to the inflation, you see very practical impact in people's pocketbooks 00:01:26.800 |
with very high fuel prices, which are causing a restructuring of people's budgets. 00:01:32.200 |
Even areas that are traditionally associated with prosperity, such as high housing prices, 00:01:38.020 |
I don't get the sense that most people feel all that great about the high housing prices. 00:01:43.620 |
Oftentimes when there's a run up in housing prices, it leads to people feeling good because 00:01:49.160 |
Just like when they have fat 401k accounts and fat housing prices, they feel wealthy 00:01:52.920 |
and they can borrow money out and spend it, etc. 00:01:56.200 |
But I get the impression that many Americans rather feel the pinch of high housing prices. 00:02:02.420 |
They feel the pinch that if I sell my house, I have to buy another one and I'm going to 00:02:08.240 |
There are a lot of people who would like to get into real estate who find it very difficult 00:02:13.200 |
to summon the necessary funds to get into real estate. 00:02:16.640 |
This traditional measure of prosperity feels different when it's put together with all 00:02:24.160 |
of the other areas of high prices that people are experiencing right now. 00:02:30.040 |
I think there are many other things that people are concerned about. 00:02:36.440 |
Even though the United States is not involved directly, kinetically, in the war with Russia 00:02:41.240 |
and Ukraine, the United States of course has been involved for many years in the war with 00:02:49.980 |
People are concerned about getting involved with that. 00:02:53.140 |
People are concerned about the impact of financial sanctions. 00:02:57.640 |
There are significant concerns about even the basics of life such as food supply. 00:03:01.840 |
I myself am very concerned about the possibility of widespread food shortages and even famine 00:03:07.960 |
over the coming year or two because every single agricultural input, the price is very, 00:03:16.840 |
It seems difficult to see how given the disruptions in certain agricultural centers such as Russia 00:03:23.480 |
and Ukraine, given the disruptions in the supply chain, the ability to redistribute 00:03:29.600 |
food supplies around the globe, and given the massive high cost of agricultural inputs 00:03:35.920 |
right now, everything from the basics of fertilizer to diesel fuel, etc., it seems difficult to 00:03:43.080 |
see how the global food production is going to be high enough in the next couple of years 00:03:51.240 |
When you think about the hundreds of millions of people who live on the edge, very well 00:03:55.740 |
could lead to widespread famine in the next year or two, which is a very, very concerning 00:04:02.040 |
This is all on top of the widespread disruption, societal disruption that we've experienced 00:04:11.680 |
The arguments around the global pandemic, which has cost the lives of millions of people 00:04:17.560 |
around the world, the massive disruption from that in terms of lifestyle, the arguments 00:04:24.240 |
among neighbors as to how that should be managed and should have been managed, the destruction 00:04:31.480 |
to many businesses, many jobs because of the economic fallout from responses to the pandemic, 00:04:37.560 |
changes in supply and demand, you have this exacerbated by other hardcore conflicts. 00:04:46.000 |
This is not just limited to the United States, which is a very argumentative and violent 00:04:53.240 |
culture, a culture prone to loud and public argumentation. 00:04:56.880 |
This is happening in cultures that we traditionally understand to be more unified. 00:05:01.600 |
You look at the disruption in the Canadian culture and the government response to the 00:05:06.120 |
protests and the protesters and the counter protesters, and you see a traditionally unified 00:05:12.240 |
culture such as the Canadian culture significantly disrupted compared to what we normally consider 00:05:20.160 |
Even in authoritarian culture right now, there are widespread protests across China, people 00:05:25.520 |
protesting the Chinese zero COVID policy, which has led to very widespread draconian 00:05:32.840 |
lockdowns to limit the spread of coronavirus. 00:05:36.400 |
And the people there are protesting, which is quite unusual for the authoritarian experience 00:05:45.340 |
And so when you look at these, the question is, well, what are the lessons that I can 00:05:48.400 |
be learning from this stock market down this past quarter, worst quarter performance in 00:05:54.860 |
What are the lessons that I need to be learning from this experience? 00:05:59.600 |
The first lesson I would like to draw your attention to is the experience, the situation 00:06:05.080 |
in the United States is fundamentally different than the situation in Ukraine or in Russia. 00:06:14.080 |
It's so fundamentally different that I feel a twinge of remorse and guilt even drawing 00:06:20.560 |
a comparison, even pulling the three together in a series like this. 00:06:26.520 |
And I'm doing so because my point is they're very different, but they're so different that 00:06:35.160 |
Because if you compare the problems being faced by Ukrainians defending their homeland 00:06:40.760 |
or the problems being faced by Russians having their country isolated from the rest of the 00:06:47.240 |
world, the problems in the United States seem like light and ordinary experiences, not even 00:06:56.920 |
But yet this is what I would say, this is the point. 00:07:00.080 |
One of the things that I wrote in my notes in preparing for this is that it's good to 00:07:05.640 |
And I think here in this situation, you see how it's good to be the king of the world. 00:07:10.280 |
It's good to be in the United States right now, because for all the problems that the 00:07:14.000 |
United States has, which are significant and worth paying attention to, worth discussing, 00:07:18.720 |
worth planning for, those problems pale in severity as compared to many places in the 00:07:26.640 |
And this is a point that I've made for a long time, that one of the best ways to improve 00:07:31.800 |
your situation in life is to be where the problems are not. 00:07:36.680 |
When I talked about Ukraine, I drew the point, I said the best way to survive an actual war 00:07:44.000 |
with bombs and guns, etc., is not being in the war, not being there. 00:07:49.360 |
And while that's really hard to say, because I think we all look at, understand, and applaud 00:07:56.360 |
those who take up arms to defend their homeland from a foreign invader, the most justified 00:08:05.160 |
form of violence that exists, the impact of that violence, even in its most justified 00:08:14.440 |
I made the point that it's very difficult to survive in a war zone, physically, with 00:08:21.560 |
But even if you do survive, it's very difficult, because you lose your life. 00:08:32.280 |
You lose your family, if you send your family away to safety. 00:08:35.260 |
You lose your family if your family stays, because you're isolated from them. 00:08:38.560 |
You're trying to keep them in a safe little country town somewhere while you go and fight 00:08:44.320 |
You lose your business, not necessarily because your business is bombed, although that can 00:08:48.360 |
happen, not necessarily because the demand disappears, although that does happen, not 00:08:53.640 |
just because the market is completely disrupted, although of course that is true. 00:08:57.680 |
You lose your business because you have no higher priority than saving your life and 00:09:09.680 |
If you're drowning in a swimming pool, you're not thinking about the stress of the stock 00:09:16.880 |
That's what happens in war, because the stress and the threat is so acute, you can't think 00:09:24.360 |
Even if the war ended today, there was an immediate ceasefire, the Russian troops withdrew, 00:09:28.580 |
the Ukrainian troops withdrew, you lose years and years of your life. 00:09:34.160 |
Because you have to rebuild, you have to clean up the rubble in the streets, you have to 00:09:38.200 |
rebuild infrastructure, you lose years to the nightmares, the broken society, the lack 00:09:49.680 |
So I made the point that if you can get out, the best thing to do is to get out. 00:09:54.520 |
If you have to stay, at least try to feel like you need to stay and that's the right 00:09:59.000 |
thing for you to do, to stay and be together with your neighbors and defend your homeland, 00:10:04.000 |
then getting your family out is your highest priority so that you can spare them to the 00:10:12.340 |
Then in Russia, I made the point that in Russia, you lose your life and your lifestyle. 00:10:17.720 |
No, you're not worried about the same level of physical danger of death, but you lose 00:10:23.740 |
the ability to build your business, you lose the ability to improve your job and career, 00:10:28.320 |
you lose the ability to think long term, which means that when you're living in a place where 00:10:33.320 |
you're facing sanctions and the severe opprobrium and sanctions that the Russian people are 00:10:41.040 |
facing, you're going to lose years and years and years of your life being there. 00:10:45.640 |
And if possible, the best way to get those years back is to go someplace where you don't 00:10:49.920 |
face those same levels of sanctions and build something where you can get back on a track 00:10:57.940 |
When you compare the United States to that, what you see is the United States has none 00:11:03.100 |
You don't have to be worried about the loss of your life on a daily basis from a bomb 00:11:15.240 |
And so when you look at that and you look at even the potential threats to the United 00:11:19.600 |
States of things that could make things worse, one of the best places to be right now in 00:11:26.320 |
In fact, my travels of the world over the last years have raised my opinion of life 00:11:34.520 |
When I first left the United States about three years or over three years ago now, I 00:11:40.120 |
was pretty dark and negative in my outlook for the country. 00:11:45.920 |
I was watching things internally that made me say, you know what? 00:11:52.560 |
But after three years of being abroad, living abroad, traveling back and forth the United 00:11:56.920 |
States, traveling the world in over a dozen countries, I've come to the perspective of 00:12:01.360 |
no, actually, in many cases, it's hard for me to say that there's a better place for 00:12:10.840 |
And in terms of practical evidence of that, what is the practical evidence of it? 00:12:15.240 |
Well, number one, things are much more stable in the United States. 00:12:18.920 |
It seems from an outside, especially when you look at the cultural strife and the arguments 00:12:23.240 |
and whatnot, it seems from the outside that things are difficult. 00:12:28.080 |
It often feels like, well, the culture is splitting apart, the country is splitting 00:12:34.480 |
But yet at its core, there's a giant bureaucracy, there's a giant system that just kind of trundles 00:12:40.620 |
forward the way the things, the way that more or less the way things always have been, doesn't 00:12:48.380 |
From a financial perspective, you have the US dollar, which for all of its lacks, for 00:12:53.180 |
all of its difficulties, for all of its injustices, is the world reserve currency and is the world's 00:13:01.980 |
It is, it's inconceivable that the US dollar, for all the problems that it will face, will 00:13:06.860 |
face the same problems as so many other currencies around the world. 00:13:13.260 |
You look at the American stock market, you try to draw a comparison between the collapse 00:13:17.180 |
of the Russian stock market and the declines in the American stock market recently. 00:13:23.120 |
And it's just not even a valid point of comparison. 00:13:27.300 |
The US stock market cannot collapse the way that the Russian stock market collapsed. 00:13:34.140 |
Because if the US stock market did collapse that way, it would not signal, it's not the 00:13:39.300 |
signal of a temporary thing, it's a signal of a complete implosion of the world, literally, 00:13:44.780 |
because of the companies that are listed there, because of the centrality in the global market 00:13:51.140 |
And so while it's certainly theoretically possible that you could have that kind of 00:13:55.180 |
widespread collapse, it's just not practically conceivable in any reasonable, practical sense 00:14:05.240 |
When you look at the situation that the Russians and the Ukrainians face, the Russians being 00:14:11.140 |
concerned about invasion, so then invading Ukraine, the Ukraines being concerned about 00:14:15.000 |
invasion and getting invaded, you look at the European context, you realize how low 00:14:23.420 |
The US is so geographically insulated from virtually all violence from its neighbors, 00:14:28.420 |
friendly neighbors to the north and to the south, two large, stable countries that don't 00:14:36.020 |
have any meaningful military power compared to the United States. 00:14:39.900 |
The United States is the king of the seas on a global basis, isolated and insulated 00:14:46.300 |
The idea of somebody invading the United States with a land invasion is laughable. 00:14:53.160 |
It's utterly risible that somebody would think of invading the United States. 00:14:58.460 |
The most hardcore of a scenario you could come up with would be somebody simply launching 00:15:06.060 |
And even that is very hard to believe that would actually happen, although not outside 00:15:13.220 |
But the idea of somebody invading is utterly risible. 00:15:18.180 |
The US is financially insulated from virtually all outside forces. 00:15:21.220 |
You look at how deeply impacted Russia is and is going to be by the global sanctions, 00:15:29.700 |
then you go back and you look at the United States. 00:15:31.180 |
Here's a country that produces massive amounts of food, that manufactures massive amounts 00:15:36.860 |
Here's a country that has the world's dominant currency, the world that controls political 00:15:47.580 |
The scale of power, economic power, financial power, military power, is so lopsided in favor 00:15:56.780 |
of the United States that it's just impossible to believe that at this stage in world history, 00:16:05.580 |
the United States would face any of the same kind of trials that other very powerful countries 00:16:12.540 |
And the USA simply has the clout and the authority and the bullying power to get almost everything 00:16:20.860 |
It has the internal resources to get what it needs in terms of very tremendous reservoirs 00:16:29.940 |
of intelligence, hard work, companies, skills, etc. 00:16:34.020 |
All united around a basic core identity, an identity of being an American people who is 00:16:43.860 |
I think you saw this in the early stage of the pandemic when all of a sudden all across 00:16:49.900 |
the country, all of these companies immediately turned themselves to producing face masks 00:16:54.660 |
and to printing things for respirators and little valves and whatnot. 00:16:59.860 |
But the level of creativity and the level of resources in the United States is so deep 00:17:04.820 |
that the culture, when united around a central purpose, can respond very, very quickly and 00:17:14.580 |
And then the United States is vastly underpopulated. 00:17:18.060 |
And so because it is so vastly underpopulated, it has room to maneuver. 00:17:23.340 |
It has room for the population to adjust, change, to go and relocate within the country 00:17:33.660 |
And so for all of the downsides of the United States, I look at the country after being 00:17:40.700 |
gone for three years and a good sober analysis and I say it's very hard to believe that there's 00:17:46.180 |
a better place to be on a broad scale for most people. 00:17:50.620 |
It's very hard to think that there's some place better. 00:17:54.660 |
And so the risk level being in the United States is much, much lower than it is in many 00:18:01.140 |
And I think that you see this with regard to even how the pandemic has played out. 00:18:08.620 |
Now here you have to look a little bit at the... 00:18:13.780 |
Death rates in the United States high, much higher than many other nations of its peers. 00:18:22.500 |
But one of the things that I thought was so obvious is where did the, for example, vaccines, 00:18:27.620 |
where did the vaccines get developed the most quickly? 00:18:31.060 |
Well, the ones that worked got developed in the United States. 00:18:33.900 |
You had vaccines developed quickly in Russia. 00:18:39.420 |
You had various approaches throughout the Americas of different companies researching 00:18:45.780 |
And in many of those, the efficacy proved to simply not be sufficient. 00:18:50.020 |
The high-risk performing vaccines were developed by American companies, and then they were 00:18:57.860 |
So back to the clout of the United States, both in terms of internal ability to develop 00:19:02.780 |
things and also the financial power to go and buy vaccines from international manufacturers 00:19:08.300 |
and get them brought into the United States quickly. 00:19:11.140 |
The widest availability of vaccines, the quickest, was in the United States as compared to many 00:19:16.940 |
And it was so widespread that basically at that time, any tourist could fly to the United 00:19:21.500 |
They were begging people to get vaccinated all across the country, giving out prizes 00:19:30.540 |
I looked at that and studied it all the way through, and I thought, "This is a good example 00:19:39.420 |
And so when you look at that, and to be clear, that's not an all-consuming thing. 00:19:45.980 |
I'm not going back to the United States to live. 00:19:49.460 |
But when you study it, honestly, if you're in the United States, as most of my audience 00:19:53.740 |
is, don't think that it's just magically better somewhere else. 00:19:59.580 |
I have come from the last few years of travel, I have come to the conviction that most people 00:20:05.660 |
should stay where they're from, and that includes Americans, and that there are very good reasons 00:20:12.660 |
as to why you'll probably have the best long-term possibility of success in the United States 00:20:20.340 |
But when you look at these yellow warning signs that are around, it does give you reason 00:20:31.420 |
Well, I think the financial lessons are really the same ordinary run-of-the-mill lessons 00:20:38.180 |
that I have been talking about for many years. 00:20:41.460 |
And it's not to pat myself on the back, it's to say that I don't see anything new at the 00:20:54.740 |
Right now, in any place in the world, if you have an income, you're okay. 00:20:58.660 |
And in the United States, if you have an income, you're okay. 00:21:01.660 |
Why are the Russian sanctions so devastating? 00:21:06.300 |
One of the reasons they're devastating is it's destroying the incomes of many people. 00:21:10.700 |
It's destroying the incomes of people living in Russia who work outside of Russia, meaning 00:21:17.500 |
Their isolation in the banking system has made it impossible for many of them to get 00:21:21.380 |
hold of the money that's owed to them for their work abroad. 00:21:24.620 |
Because of the social probrium that the world is leveraging against Russia, then many people 00:21:31.180 |
are simply dropping all of their Russian clients, even though those ordinary... 00:21:34.540 |
Sorry, dropping Russian clients, yes, but dropping Russian workers, even though those 00:21:38.260 |
Russian workers themselves have not done anything wrong. 00:21:41.940 |
And then inside Russia, you have a massive economic crisis because the people are facing 00:21:48.800 |
You have companies, international companies, shuttering their shops, laying off their workforce. 00:21:54.420 |
And that ripple effect spreads throughout the economy. 00:21:57.580 |
If you have thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of people without work, then 00:22:02.140 |
those people don't have the income now to go and buy, and that puts more thousands and 00:22:08.500 |
And so it's loss of income that's the primary problem. 00:22:11.980 |
It's not the loss of power of the ruble, which has declined in value and then come back. 00:22:17.140 |
If you're living in Russia, the ruble is still working fine. 00:22:25.340 |
But if you've lost your income, you've lost your ability to buy. 00:22:30.940 |
But that's just because you lost your income. 00:22:33.180 |
And so again, if you could protect your income in a crisis, you can get through that crisis 00:22:40.840 |
So looking at the United States, if you can keep your income, you can absorb the increases 00:22:45.840 |
You can absorb the increases in the cost of your fuel. 00:22:49.300 |
You can absorb it if you can keep your income. 00:22:52.000 |
So your goal is to keep your income, just to maintain it, if that's all you can do. 00:23:00.020 |
But if all you can do is maintain it, you maintain it. 00:23:03.140 |
Because the maintenance of that income will allow you to weather the economic crisis extremely 00:23:16.060 |
Make a plan of, if I lost my income, how would I get more income quickly? 00:23:20.640 |
Make a plan to make sure that you're not in the first round of layoffs if your company 00:23:27.420 |
And there's no change from that today versus 10 years ago. 00:23:32.500 |
Those who can keep their income through a crisis are generally going to be fine. 00:23:40.740 |
Next, you cannot be living near the edge with your finances. 00:23:47.980 |
You cannot have everything built so you're right on the edge. 00:23:53.740 |
A guy who's got a good, healthy six-figure income, who's fixed an ordinary expenses or 00:23:58.820 |
say 50% of his income, that guy doesn't care about increased cost of food, increased cost 00:24:06.100 |
of fuel because you've got an ability to expand and to adjust. 00:24:12.540 |
Maybe you have to work a little bit of overtime or something, but you can adjust your budget 00:24:19.260 |
But the guy who's got a low income or the guy who's got his fixed expenses as a very 00:24:23.840 |
high percentage of his income, that guy's got major problems. 00:24:29.020 |
There's a statement that is a really tone-deaf thing to say, but I think it's really true. 00:24:37.220 |
And so even at the risk of it being offensive, I think it's worth saying. 00:24:41.260 |
I've thought of it several times in watching the situation. 00:24:46.120 |
"If the price of gas makes a major difference to your daily life, you're doing it wrong." 00:24:53.880 |
"If the price of gas makes a major difference to your daily life, you're doing it wrong." 00:25:00.480 |
Let me expand that statement because it's a provocative and inflammatory statement, 00:25:05.600 |
but it holds a lesson that I think is the right lesson to hold. 00:25:12.120 |
There's a small subset of businesses that are high consumers of fuel whose business 00:25:18.600 |
will be majorly disrupted by the price of gas. 00:25:25.120 |
I'm not arguing that those people are doing it wrong because they can simply adjust their 00:25:30.880 |
If you run a trucking company and you're consuming thousands and thousands of gallons of fuel, 00:25:41.880 |
You'll adjust your end product prices, whatever, very quickly to adapt to the increased cost 00:25:51.800 |
But for an individual, an ordinary consumer, the price of gas should be a very, very small 00:26:01.440 |
And because if you have a high amount of income and a low amount of other expenses, you can 00:26:14.280 |
If you have a low income, then your number one focus should be to figure out how can 00:26:19.860 |
I find an alternative that doesn't expose me to the high price of fuel. 00:26:25.600 |
And so the way to get ahead financially is to do your very best to keep your expenses 00:26:30.880 |
low as compared to the amount of your income. 00:26:34.960 |
Where I think you see the people who are hurting the most right now with fuel prices is those 00:26:39.080 |
who have not structured their finances in a way that thinks about frugality and spending 00:26:47.080 |
I think here of a guy that I-- this is who I would have been when I was younger. 00:26:52.880 |
But I had a family member who has a young boyfriend. 00:26:59.800 |
And he was from kind of the rural redneck culture in the United States. 00:27:06.960 |
And so his daily driver vehicle was a big Dodge pickup truck with a 5.7 liter Hemi, 00:27:16.280 |
which is a fuel sucking vehicle that he was using exclusively to transport himself around. 00:27:22.400 |
And that's what I would have wanted, except I didn't want a Hemi. 00:27:31.960 |
The problem is he's rolling around getting 10 miles per gallon. 00:27:40.520 |
Because when fuel prices go up, it just becomes crazy for an 18-year-old to be trundling around 00:27:45.560 |
doing tons of miles in a fuel sucking pickup truck that he has no useful need for. 00:27:51.320 |
And so that same 18-year-old can intelligently turn into a small economic car, can go to 00:27:57.000 |
a motorcycle, a moped, something that gets 50, 80, 100 miles per gallon, and get the 00:28:05.440 |
If you have enough money that you want to drive a fuel sucking car, go for it. 00:28:10.440 |
But if you're still trying to get money together, you can't indulge your whims of having a beautiful 00:28:18.080 |
You got to get a moped, something that's going to get you around and solve your transportation 00:28:24.360 |
So when you look at people who complain the most about gas and you look at the structure 00:28:27.960 |
of their life, their lives are not ordinarily structured towards wealth. 00:28:32.000 |
They're not making decisions to keep their expenses low as compared to their income so 00:28:37.720 |
What's happening is they're often living high consumption lifestyles as compared to their 00:28:44.000 |
I don't want to drive a moped on a daily basis, but I have to find a solution to my transportation 00:28:50.520 |
needs that still allows me to save money and absorb changes. 00:28:54.560 |
I think in the current fuel price increase, you see the importance of that. 00:29:01.360 |
If the price of gas makes a big difference in your daily life, you're doing it wrong. 00:29:05.040 |
It's a sign that your ratio of expenses to your income is out of whack and you need to 00:29:17.800 |
If you want to build wealth, you have to have your expenses much, much lower than your income. 00:29:24.320 |
Then when there are changes in the prices of things, you can absorb those changes. 00:29:29.000 |
Let me add one bit of mathematical analysis to why I say this at the risk of it being 00:29:34.800 |
I'm trying to say it clearly, but at the risk of it being quite offensive. 00:29:40.520 |
Let's say that your expenses are 50% of your income and there's a 10% change in your expenses. 00:29:56.120 |
Now your expenses are 55% of your income rather than 50%. 00:30:06.520 |
You can absorb a 10% inflation rate even if your income doesn't change to keep up with 00:30:11.200 |
What if there's a 20% increase in your expenses, but you started with a structure of 50% expenses 00:30:21.440 |
If your expenses increase by 20%, then they would go from 50% of your income to 60% of 00:30:40.160 |
Now let's say that you're living right at the edge. 00:30:42.880 |
Ordinarily, you have 90% of your income devoted to expenses. 00:30:51.520 |
And then there's a 10% change in your expenses. 00:30:55.320 |
Well, a 10% change in your expenses would take your expense level from 90% to 99% of 00:31:06.120 |
Well now it's going to take you over 100% of your income and you're going to immediately 00:31:10.200 |
So the key is to make sure that your expenses are modest as compared to your income. 00:31:18.400 |
That is what makes the difference in your ability to weather difficult circumstances 00:31:27.640 |
All the basics still apply in that you must have savings. 00:31:31.780 |
If you have savings, liquid money, emergency fund, buffer funds, savings, money that you 00:31:38.040 |
haven't consumed, then you can absorb the temporary increases in price while you restructure 00:31:46.060 |
You can absorb several months of being in the red. 00:31:48.780 |
Even the guy who's got expenses at 90% and now due to over 10% inflation, he's over 100% 00:31:59.760 |
He can handle his expenses for a few months until he can restructure his life. 00:32:05.760 |
He can go and buy a moped or figure out some solution to deal with the price of gas. 00:32:12.280 |
He has time to figure out how to get his garden in and get it productive to get food so he 00:32:20.080 |
Now those are silly but practical examples that if it's at that point, that's what you 00:32:30.840 |
They give you a buffer zone against unanticipated expenses. 00:32:38.080 |
Well, they give us a buffer against disruptions that we can't anticipate perfectly. 00:32:44.040 |
They allow us to be calm and relaxed while we figure out how to solve problems. 00:32:49.680 |
That's why when you have a buffer on a production line, you have a buffer of materials, if there's 00:32:53.880 |
a disruption of materials, you can keep your supply line, you can keep your production 00:32:58.680 |
In every business, having a buffer allows you to say, "All right, how do I make new, 00:33:05.520 |
That hasn't changed because of high inflation rates. 00:33:08.360 |
What's happened is it's become more important in high inflation rates. 00:33:12.360 |
Your savings haven't just lost their value because there's a 5% inflation rate. 00:33:17.300 |
Your savings have become more valuable because there's a 5% inflation rate. 00:33:21.660 |
They're much more valuable to you as you figure out what to do. 00:33:26.520 |
By the way, I just hear so many of the audience saying, "5%, Joshua, 5%! 00:33:35.280 |
If you're facing a 15% inflation rate in your personal level of expenses, your savings are 00:33:41.440 |
now much more valuable to you as you figure out, "What should I do? 00:33:47.000 |
Should I take this and go and buy a bunch of food? 00:33:55.600 |
Should I go and keep the money in case of future disruptions?" 00:34:00.400 |
The savings become more valuable in times of inflation than they do in other scenarios. 00:34:11.480 |
I still continue to believe that most "normal" financial planning moves will work out. 00:34:18.640 |
Meaning that if you look at the situation in the United States, there's no reason to 00:34:25.840 |
There's no reason to panic and say, "This is forever." 00:34:33.920 |
I still continue to believe that ordinary day-to-day financial advice is still sound. 00:34:39.960 |
There's no big structural problem that needs to be changed immediately. 00:34:48.240 |
And if you look at the availability of things, being in the United States is one of the best 00:34:53.040 |
Now, I don't think that all countries are going to weather the current difficulties 00:35:02.560 |
And going forward, how could things get worse? 00:35:11.720 |
My biggest concern right now is not nuclear war, although that is a concern. 00:35:16.560 |
My biggest concern right now is food supplies. 00:35:23.920 |
But if you don't have any food, if you don't have any kind of stockpiles of food, I beg 00:35:28.120 |
you, go this weekend and turn some of your US coins, your token fiat money, into food. 00:35:37.600 |
Food that your family will eat eventually, whether it's available or not. 00:35:45.760 |
Because right now, there are red flashing warning lights all over the global food system. 00:35:55.880 |
I'm hoping that by changing the price of food, it becoming much more expensive, we can keep 00:36:02.120 |
That's going to have a big impact because you'd be spending a lot more money, but at 00:36:05.480 |
least it would be available and there wouldn't be widespread famine. 00:36:08.400 |
I'm hoping that there can be a quick response to the high prices and there can be more food 00:36:14.280 |
But right now, there are big, big problems on the horizon for that. 00:36:31.880 |
Number one, ordinary financial planning works until it doesn't. 00:36:36.400 |
Everything I've said works, has been ordinary financial planning. 00:36:41.280 |
What could happen that would make ordinary financial planning not work? 00:36:44.320 |
Well, it would be if there was literally not enough supplies of food. 00:36:49.840 |
That could lead to, would lead to widespread social disruption. 00:36:54.720 |
If you thought social disruption was bad during COVID, you ain't seen nothing yet. 00:36:58.280 |
Wait till there's famine in the land and all of a sudden now, everything falls apart. 00:37:04.200 |
But you can avoid that for you and your family by having food. 00:37:08.320 |
So I've been stockpiling significantly over the last couple of weeks, trying to make sure 00:37:19.400 |
That could be a big, big trend over the next year or two that could be seriously disruptive. 00:37:31.760 |
That wouldn't make financial planning fall apart. 00:37:34.280 |
It would just mean that you need to have money to buy the food and the cheapest time to do 00:37:39.880 |
And then later, you need to have the money to buy the food then, assuming that it is 00:37:45.920 |
That's not a remaking and that's not a reason to leave the United States. 00:37:50.280 |
In fact, I think that the United States will have the least impact of any country from, 00:37:58.080 |
if it happens, of disruptions in the global food supplies. 00:38:02.680 |
What I really worry about is so many other nations around the world that have far higher 00:38:07.160 |
levels of poverty and that are far more dependent on exports. 00:38:10.600 |
The United States is very highly food independent. 00:38:15.680 |
And if food became short, the United States makes plenty of food to feed itself, the basic 00:38:22.760 |
staple crops, and then that can be easily supplemented, especially with modern growing 00:38:26.920 |
technology of all the stuff around the edges, vegetables, etc. 00:38:30.920 |
That stuff can be brought into production quickly. 00:38:32.520 |
The United States is so technologically advanced, I think it could be brought into production 00:38:41.360 |
I'm not too worried about that in the United States. 00:38:43.360 |
What I'm worried about is on a global basis, where there's far higher levels of poverty 00:38:47.640 |
and far lower levels of production and lower levels of ability to respond. 00:38:55.680 |
If food became scarce in the United States, people left and right, the best business to 00:39:00.960 |
be in would be selling UV lights, grow lights, greenhouses, hydroponic kits for salad greens, 00:39:10.520 |
Maybe it would be a great thing to point our culture more and more towards a localized 00:39:19.040 |
production where every kitchen has one of those cool little salad walls in it, and every 00:39:24.000 |
backyard has a little vegetable plot in it, and there's a little hen coop of chickens 00:39:33.100 |
I'd love to see it, but maybe it would be a good thing. 00:39:35.480 |
The point is that the United States, because there's so much money, people can respond. 00:39:40.600 |
I worry about it on a global basis more than I do about the United States. 00:39:45.400 |
The other thing, of course, is the threat of war. 00:39:49.160 |
A few weeks ago, I talked about my biggest concern with cyber warfare. 00:39:55.560 |
It's been an interesting question is why has, for example, Russia, that the world believes 00:40:00.720 |
and has believed has a very sophisticated ability to engage in cyber warfare, why have 00:40:08.200 |
They haven't done much in Ukraine, and they haven't done much around the world. 00:40:12.000 |
I can understand why they haven't done much around the world, but why they haven't done 00:40:16.280 |
much in Ukraine is a harder question to answer. 00:40:19.560 |
It seems to me that the risk level has come down. 00:40:26.320 |
As long as the Russians will be able to finish their war in some way that allows them to 00:40:31.120 |
save face, then I think it would lower the risk of the conflict spreading beyond the 00:40:40.280 |
However, it is interesting to think about what if you did get, instead of an erroneous 00:40:46.400 |
alert, what if you got an actual alert that said, "Hey, there's a nuclear missile inbound 00:40:54.640 |
It's not something that most of us think about, but the lesson that I look at it is wouldn't 00:41:00.840 |
Wouldn't you feel better if you actually had a bunker, a blast room in your basement, or 00:41:06.720 |
a bunker in your backyard, or a little piece of land that you could get to where you had 00:41:15.380 |
As I've gone through it in the analysis, I think that when you look at these scenarios, 00:41:21.000 |
you recognize that, "Hey, if I have the money, if I'm a millionaire, it might be worth it 00:41:29.440 |
It might be worth it for me to make sure that I was well protected from those things in 00:41:33.520 |
case the financial markets collapsed and it didn't work anymore." 00:41:36.880 |
You cannot pretend that the world is just going to be at peace for the rest of your 00:41:41.160 |
life and so making a plan that that is the case doesn't make sense. 00:41:46.480 |
You have to make a plan that works no matter what. 00:41:50.000 |
Final thing I point out is I think when you look at the situation in the United States, 00:41:56.320 |
you see how, or on the world, excuse me, when you look at the situation in the world, you 00:42:00.600 |
see how you don't get to choose and necessarily get one disaster after another. 00:42:07.080 |
And that's oftentimes what can provoke a crisis. 00:42:10.420 |
The Ukrainian people have gone through a very difficult flu pandemic with widespread loss 00:42:18.240 |
of life, widespread economic disruption, political unrest, et cetera. 00:42:24.400 |
And then that was exacerbated by their country being invaded. 00:42:28.600 |
The Russian people have gone through a very difficult flu pandemic, widespread loss of 00:42:34.000 |
life, widespread restrictions, et cetera, and then they go through global sanctions 00:42:43.840 |
The American people have gone through a disruptive event, a disruptive flu, widespread economic 00:42:51.960 |
difficulties, widespread disruptions, and now all of a sudden got to deal with high 00:42:58.000 |
gas rates, high gas prices, increasing rates of inflation, et cetera. 00:43:02.900 |
So you don't get to choose one crisis at a time. 00:43:07.600 |
And so when you do deep level planning, it's often because you recognize that while any 00:43:12.060 |
one particular threat may not be such a big deal, I don't get to choose whether one threat 00:43:21.420 |
There have been a lot of businesses wiped out over the last couple of years completely. 00:43:26.780 |
Those people are still suffering and trying to figure out how to get things forward. 00:43:30.280 |
And they're really upset about high gas rates. 00:43:35.020 |
Maybe they were perfectly set up to where, hey, gas prices aren't a big deal in my life 00:43:42.660 |
And they used up all their savings trying to keep their business afloat. 00:43:45.880 |
And now you have uncertainty, you have economic uncertainty, inflation, risks of war, et cetera. 00:43:52.440 |
So the reason you do planning, even for hardcore deep level scenarios, is that you can't predict 00:43:59.780 |
the scenario that you specifically will face. 00:44:02.940 |
You don't know specifically when it will happen to you. 00:44:07.020 |
And so because of that, you acknowledge it and you do the deep level planning. 00:44:16.700 |
I think that things in the United States are really not that bad. 00:44:21.180 |
And I don't think they're really going to be that bad, especially when held on a global 00:44:28.020 |
I think that if you can get to the United States and you're not thriving where you are, 00:44:32.700 |
one of the best places to be in the coming year is going to be in the United States. 00:44:45.420 |
And by planning for disasters and disruptions, it puts a sense of stability in your life 00:44:51.900 |
that allows you to keep building for what you want to actually have happen. 00:44:57.580 |
I see this as the fundamental reason why do I talk so much about disaster planning. 00:45:04.180 |
As I see it, it's so that you can go on and ignore the disasters without worrying about 00:45:10.660 |
There's interesting research people do about what causes children to be economically successful. 00:45:22.300 |
And there are some who argue with data to indicate good strength to their arguments 00:45:28.500 |
that the children of wealthy people always do better than the children of non-wealthy 00:45:36.060 |
Is it because they went to better schools, because they were given more money, et cetera? 00:45:39.980 |
But one of the arguments that I think is pretty powerful is the children of wealthy people 00:45:49.620 |
They don't worry about having enough food to eat. 00:45:52.220 |
They don't worry about going bankrupt and being homeless. 00:45:58.500 |
And because they don't worry about those things, they can take bigger risks. 00:46:02.900 |
They can go for things that other people wouldn't do. 00:46:05.740 |
In my own life, I observed this that when I was in college, I was worried about having 00:46:13.000 |
And because of that, I didn't go after some of the high-level internships that other people 00:46:18.780 |
went after because I needed to make money today. 00:46:22.240 |
Looking back, I now see that I made the wrong choice. 00:46:24.980 |
I should have gone after those high-level internships instead of worrying about making 00:46:28.500 |
money today because it would have been a significant advance in my life and in my career. 00:46:39.380 |
You see that the children of wealthy people will go and take the unpaid internship that 00:46:45.300 |
They'll go and start a business that may or may not go and that may or may not have any 00:46:51.380 |
And yet the children of poor people often feel more pressure to make it today, to make 00:46:56.860 |
money today, to be okay, to not get wiped out, to not be a burden on mom and dad, etc. 00:47:02.900 |
I think there's really good evidence to say that that can be true. 00:47:06.500 |
Now, there are countervailing arguments, right? 00:47:08.340 |
You can appreciate the hunger that poor people have that rich people often don't express 00:47:13.840 |
But on the whole, I can't see how you're better off if you don't have a safety net psychologically. 00:47:22.140 |
So that's why you build a safety net under yourself now. 00:47:24.780 |
I can't go back and change what I did or didn't do at 18 years old. 00:47:29.180 |
But you build a safety net under yourself now so that you can move on. 00:47:34.060 |
And if you've got a year's supply of food in your pantry, you don't need to spend time 00:47:41.700 |
You don't spend time worrying about food and, "I gotta go to the store." 00:47:45.200 |
Even just the simple convenience of, "I gotta go to the store." 00:47:54.300 |
And then if prices go up, okay, we'll keep buying. 00:47:56.800 |
But if we don't need to buy, it's no big deal. 00:47:59.100 |
And so by being conservative in your financial planning, it allows you to be more aggressive 00:48:05.660 |
in your business planning, in your career planning, in your income planning. 00:48:11.300 |
I've tried to figure out where's the right balance of conservatism and being aggressive. 00:48:19.100 |
Be conservative in your consumption so that you can be aggressive in your income. 00:48:23.060 |
And then you can go after the opportunities that you see knowing that you have a safety 00:48:26.980 |
net, knowing that you're not likely to get wiped out, knowing that you can fall back 00:48:31.060 |
on your reserves in the same way that the child of wealthy parents knows that, "Hey, 00:48:39.980 |
So therefore, I can be more aggressive in the opportunities that I go after." 00:48:48.540 |
We're not in a period of prosperity for many people, but yet prosperity is often created 00:48:56.420 |
And so my hope for you is that you and your family would be able to navigate whatever 00:49:01.320 |
level of crisis you're facing personally, be it war, be it sanctions, or be it inflation. 00:49:11.160 |
My hope is that you'd be able to navigate it. 00:49:13.000 |
And my hope is that you would have great wisdom to be able to figure out, "How do I capitalize 00:49:28.120 |
And I have a brand new course called International Escape Plan. 00:49:30.760 |
I haven't talked about that on this class much, but it's my way of capitalizing on a 00:49:36.440 |
It's my way of saying, "Hey, here's things I've taught for a long time. 00:49:40.880 |
Because as part of that, it's a matter of saying that if you're prepared to leave your 00:49:45.160 |
country, as I talked about and showed with Ukraine and Russia, if you're prepared to 00:49:49.040 |
leave your country, you can be prepared to thrive in the middle of a crisis. 00:49:52.720 |
So let me just close today's show with an ad that in addition to what I have said, if 00:49:57.760 |
you do not have a plan to get out of your country, then I think that that is a real 00:50:05.400 |
There are many things that can happen that could cause you to want to leave your country. 00:50:09.560 |
Your country could be very robust in a great economic state, but they shut you in your 00:50:15.040 |
apartment and don't let you leave for weeks at a time, months at a time. 00:50:20.920 |
They got robotic dogs trotting through the street with loudspeakers and cameras going 00:50:25.400 |
to a central place, keeping you in your apartment. 00:50:27.520 |
They literally bolt you into your apartment building in some buildings. 00:50:33.400 |
I can't even imagine living in that kind of place. 00:50:41.120 |
If you're living in Canada and you don't want to live in it, get out. 00:50:46.200 |
What if they pass some medical mandate that you don't think is right? 00:50:53.400 |
You've got to take the jab or you've got to go and get this medical procedure done or 00:50:58.240 |
You're not allowed to have rights like the rest of people. 00:51:06.520 |
Or it could be the fact that, hey, I'm living in a place and all of a sudden there's a threat 00:51:10.000 |
of war from our neighbor or to the threat of economic problems due to our country going 00:51:17.480 |
Don't lose the most precious thing that you have, which is time to these outside circumstances. 00:51:24.480 |
So if you're interested in building a practical, reasonable plan for that and you're interested 00:51:29.240 |
in my walking you through how to do it cheaply, quickly, and very effectively, go to internationalskateplan.com. 00:51:40.480 |
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