back to index2022-11-10_Important_Financial_Lessons_from_FTX_Collapse
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a show dedicated to providing you with the knowledge, 00:00:52.000 |
And in this case, when I use the term, I mean it. 00:00:57.000 |
of an entire economy or a country, et cetera, 00:01:00.000 |
but I'm talking about the collapse of an institution. 00:01:04.000 |
And today's commentary is sparked by the ongoing collapse 00:01:08.000 |
of the large cryptocurrency exchange called FTX. 00:01:12.000 |
I would imagine that most listeners of the show 00:01:26.000 |
Rather, I'm using this as an opportunity for us to learn 00:01:48.000 |
As I record this particular podcast just now, 00:01:51.000 |
the founder and CEO of FTX is releasing new details on Twitter. 00:02:09.000 |
and many, many customers, if not all of the customers, 00:02:21.000 |
if not all of the funds and assets that they had held 00:02:30.000 |
is the seemingly almost instantaneous collapse 00:02:42.000 |
a huge amount, hundreds and hundreds of millions, 00:02:59.000 |
I need to record a separate show basically saying, 00:03:06.000 |
But right now, many, many people are hurting, 00:03:16.000 |
just go and read a little bit about the situation, 00:03:27.000 |
to minimize the chance of your getting wiped out. 00:03:34.000 |
and they are related to cryptocurrency management in general. 00:03:40.000 |
First, obviously, when you are investing in cryptocurrencies, 00:03:47.000 |
it makes a massive difference what you invest in, 00:03:50.000 |
or at least I think it makes a big difference 00:03:54.000 |
Some people don't see any functional difference 00:04:00.000 |
or Bitcoin and anything else that they lump them all in. 00:04:15.000 |
that people are taking towards cryptocurrency. 00:04:20.000 |
I myself am, I wouldn't call myself a Bitcoin maximalist, 00:04:24.000 |
but I think that it certainly has a better argument 00:04:29.000 |
And if you're getting involved in other coins, 00:04:33.000 |
and pay attention and follow your strategies. 00:04:39.000 |
if you do not hold the keys, you do not own them. 00:04:56.000 |
And if you do not hold the keys to all of your computer coins, 00:05:00.000 |
Your computer coins that are held on an exchange 00:05:09.000 |
for buying and selling and owning coins on an exchange, 00:05:20.000 |
has to do with ownership of something like gold and silver. 00:05:23.000 |
You do not own gold or silver unless you control it, 00:05:30.000 |
be it coins, necklaces, watches, or bricks of gold. 00:05:34.000 |
You do not own it unless you physically control it. 00:05:46.000 |
is not the same as owning physical gold coins 00:05:50.000 |
or physical silver coins or physical something. 00:05:58.000 |
then you can be certain of what's happening to it. 00:06:12.000 |
And of course you would verify the authenticity of that, 00:06:17.000 |
but you know that 100 ounces of gold or silver 00:06:27.000 |
That comes with major advantages and some disadvantages. 00:06:30.000 |
The fact that it is sitting there renders it useless. 00:06:37.000 |
It's just a lump of metal sitting there in your safe. 00:06:41.000 |
On the other hand, if you own shares in an ETF, 00:06:48.000 |
with the gold and silver that you allegedly own. 00:06:51.000 |
You have to trust the intermediary institution 00:06:55.000 |
Now there are institutions of varying quality. 00:06:58.000 |
At the most limited end, you can go to your buddy 00:07:04.000 |
Go ahead and buy 100 ounces of silver for me." 00:07:21.000 |
And they can say, "Look, here's where the gold is." 00:07:23.000 |
The point is if you don't own it or control it, 00:07:47.000 |
And again, there are good reasons to hold money, 00:07:52.000 |
Just like there are good reasons to trade ETFs 00:07:55.000 |
If you want to speculate on something like gold or silver, 00:08:07.000 |
with trying to buy and sell gold and silver coins. 00:08:13.000 |
because the friction of buying them and selling them 00:08:40.000 |
and that way you can be confident that you own them. 00:08:43.000 |
But if you're dealing with a trading scenario, 00:09:22.000 |
I've shared these with private clients along the way, 00:09:31.000 |
first, anytime you get involved in an investment, 00:09:58.000 |
And I don't know what the percentage of investors 00:10:03.000 |
but it sure seems like the percentage of investors 00:10:05.000 |
who get involved emotionally is very, very high 00:10:11.000 |
who get involved based upon a strategic plan. 00:10:29.000 |
And if you are clear on your investment goals, 00:10:37.000 |
this is an appropriate investment for you or not. 00:11:05.000 |
This will relate to your position in life, etc. 00:11:12.000 |
that I think are very well worth considering. 00:15:41.000 |
that your fundamentals are in excellent shape 00:16:11.000 |
is don't ever put more than 10% of your net worth 00:16:47.000 |
perhaps in the form of ownership of some kind, 00:16:58.000 |
There was a headline floating around Twitter yesterday 00:17:17.000 |
Obviously, his brand still has massive amounts of equity. 00:17:20.000 |
He'll make plenty of money in the years to come. 00:17:22.000 |
But you're in the twilight of your earned income 00:17:43.000 |
Imagine how devastating that would be to him. 00:17:52.000 |
of his income tied up in any one particular venture. 00:18:04.000 |
It hurts, obviously, to lose 10% of your net worth, 00:18:16.000 |
but I'm just speculating, just like anyone else is. 00:18:21.000 |
use a current example of an absolute wipeout of a company 00:18:27.000 |
and imagine that happening in your investments, 00:18:32.000 |
Try to minimize your exposure to any one particular thing 00:18:46.000 |
is that most of us can't start with this rule. 00:18:50.000 |
So if we use a stereotypical example of a young person 00:18:57.000 |
because 100% of their money is coming from one single job. 00:19:03.000 |
"I'm not going to put more than 10% of my money 00:19:12.000 |
because $100,000 of their money is all in U.S. dollars. 00:19:22.000 |
it just makes me think of bank collapses over the years. 00:19:27.000 |
we feel very, very insulated from bank collapses 00:19:34.000 |
who live in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, etc., 00:19:37.000 |
we just feel very, very insulated from these things. 00:19:41.000 |
We feel a significant degree of confidence in our currency. 00:19:50.000 |
But at its core, recognize that throughout history, 00:19:56.000 |
That's why we have the whole concept of a bank run. 00:20:02.000 |
you'll find constant series of financial crises 00:20:13.000 |
while we have a much more robust system in the modern day 00:20:29.000 |
What it does is it increases the public confidence 00:20:36.000 |
and all of banking lives or dies based upon confidence. 00:20:45.000 |
That if people believe in the strength and power of the US dollar, 00:20:51.000 |
If people stop believing in the power and the strength of the US dollar, 00:21:00.000 |
I was explaining recently to my 9-year-old how banking works 00:21:08.000 |
It's like, yeah, you take your money to the bank, 00:21:12.000 |
And it was funny trying to explain to an elementary student 00:21:17.000 |
And the point is like, but then everybody can't get their money. 00:21:21.000 |
And I explained, yeah, it's all a confidence game. 00:21:23.000 |
People are confident in the bank, everything is going, it's good. 00:21:26.000 |
And so what you see in the collapse of an institution like FTX 00:21:31.000 |
is you see what has happened so many times in the world of banking 00:21:38.000 |
Now, because of the many decades of history and the many bank failures, etc., 00:21:43.000 |
we've developed these new forms of insurance, 00:21:45.000 |
these new things to basically shore up the value and confidence in the banks. 00:21:49.000 |
But go back and read a couple of the books on the 2008 banking crisis 00:21:55.000 |
in the United States, the Lehman Brothers bailout, etc. 00:21:59.000 |
And what you will discover is that the private conversations 00:22:03.000 |
that the Federal Reserve personnel were having 00:22:06.000 |
and the politicians and the president and whatnot, 00:22:09.000 |
basically they were scared of exactly what happened to FTX 00:22:16.000 |
all of the institutions in the United States. 00:22:18.000 |
A fundamental collapse, a fundamental instantaneous collapse. 00:22:22.000 |
And the bankers had gotten so far out over the tips of their skis 00:22:26.000 |
with their lending practices that if the Federal Reserve had not stepped in 00:22:31.000 |
and basically bolstered the entire system and put in liquidity, 00:22:37.000 |
Now, you can choose your argument as to what's happened since then, 00:22:44.000 |
The point is it was this close in your and my lifetime 00:22:53.000 |
I think that collapse is healthy because it gets rid of the dead weight. 00:22:57.000 |
And depending on your perspective, I find the arguments that 00:23:00.000 |
because the US government didn't allow the dead weight to disappear, 00:23:03.000 |
didn't allow the natural bankruptcy process to take its course, 00:23:06.000 |
that there's good reason to think that things are not better, 00:23:11.000 |
My argument is simply that don't look at FTX and poke your fingers and say, 00:23:15.000 |
"Ha ha, those stupid people who invested in cryptocurrency, 00:23:22.000 |
The risks, the systemic risks on a global basis are not better. 00:23:28.000 |
And we really were this close to having that kind of event happen in 2008, 2009. 00:23:35.000 |
And there's no fundamental reason why it can't, won't, 00:23:44.000 |
So there's no other choice other than to play the con game. 00:23:50.000 |
You can argue, "Okay, Bitcoin," but even that, obviously, 00:23:59.000 |
and banking has had a significant ongoing evolutionary process. 00:24:05.000 |
the situation we have today is a result of hundreds of years of history, 00:24:10.000 |
of thousands and thousands of bank runs and bank failures and bankruptcies 00:24:14.000 |
and collapses of currencies, reissuing of currencies. 00:24:17.000 |
The U.S. dollar has been reissued multiple times, 00:24:22.000 |
The U.S. national banks in the short couple hundred-year history 00:24:25.000 |
of the United States has collapsed a couple of times 00:24:28.000 |
and has been reinstituted and put in place again, 00:24:30.000 |
and we're just living through the current wave of it. 00:24:33.000 |
But financial contagion, financial panic, financial collapse 00:24:38.000 |
But every time we look at it, we try to come up with a new and better system 00:24:47.000 |
In the beginning of life, you can't really apply these rules. 00:24:50.000 |
You're 100% committed to the salary from one company, 00:24:53.000 |
and you get fired, and there goes 100% of your income. 00:24:55.000 |
It's hugely risky, and yet there's really few other solutions in the beginning. 00:25:00.000 |
But as your wealth grows, as your business grows, 00:25:04.000 |
and you can say, "I'm not going to have any one particular job 00:25:07.000 |
"or any one particular client responsible for more than 10% of my income," 00:25:13.000 |
In the beginning of your life, let's say you have $10,000 saved. 00:25:17.000 |
You might have $1,000 of physical currency and $9,000 in the bank, 00:25:24.000 |
There's no benefit of you taking $10,000 and spreading it across 10 institutions. 00:25:34.000 |
But fast forward, if you find yourself having $500,000 in savings, 00:25:40.000 |
then having all of that in one bank is unwise, 00:25:44.000 |
and so you want to spread it out and diversify it. 00:25:49.000 |
Having 10 different accounts with $50,000 in them is too many accounts. 00:25:53.000 |
It's too unwieldy. It's too difficult to manage. 00:25:56.000 |
But your money certainly should not all be in one account. 00:26:01.000 |
The reason, even if you're not worried about a bank collapse, 00:26:04.000 |
you say, "Well, I have a bank that's covered by FDIC insurance, 00:26:07.000 |
and it's a very stable banking country, etc." 00:26:12.000 |
and sometimes your money gets shut off for a few days. 00:26:20.000 |
and it takes them a few days before they get things going again. 00:26:23.000 |
Or things simply as mundane as you get flagged 00:26:27.000 |
because you're trying to make an international debit card transaction, 00:26:32.000 |
and forces you to come back to the country and walk into a bank office 00:26:37.000 |
So this is why you have to have multiple banks, multiple debit cards, etc., 00:26:42.000 |
But again, you probably can't do 10, 10, 10, 10 on those scenarios. 00:26:54.000 |
that don't invest to a point of wiping you out. 00:27:00.000 |
The next concept I want to convey to you is simply the concept of ratcheting. 00:27:05.000 |
My example here is I think about the old show of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" 00:27:09.000 |
And the great thing about that show was it had these ratchet points. 00:27:13.000 |
I think it was $1,000 and $64,000 and $1 million, something like that. 00:27:18.000 |
But you knew at various points that if you were playing and you lost, 00:27:24.000 |
you wouldn't go below the number that you were ratcheted up to. 00:27:28.000 |
In life, I think there are a number of these ratchet points 00:27:31.000 |
that are worth paying attention to and considering. 00:27:38.000 |
But I would encourage you to think about your own life. 00:27:41.000 |
What amount of money do you never want to go below no matter what? 00:27:45.000 |
In the past, I did a show on $1,000, $10,000, $100,000. 00:27:51.000 |
That was primarily dedicated to people who were saving. 00:27:53.000 |
And the point was that if you're poor and you can get $1,000 scraped together, 00:27:57.000 |
you're no longer poor because now you have enough wiggle room 00:28:04.000 |
You're not dependent on running around scraping, etc. 00:28:06.000 |
With $10,000, which is an accessible savings target 00:28:09.000 |
for just about anybody in a year or so, at really any level, 00:28:13.000 |
you can pretty much free yourself from most of the needs. 00:28:20.000 |
You can make first, last, and security on an apartment. 00:28:23.000 |
You can handle two months out of income, etc. 00:28:26.000 |
Then my argument on $100,000 was that if you save $100,000 in the beginning of life, 00:28:31.000 |
that you're positioned to where all of your decisions that you want to make 00:28:44.000 |
You can do all these things with having that amount of money. 00:28:48.000 |
You're not addicted to the month-to-month living of paycheck-to-paycheck 00:28:56.000 |
When you get too wealthy, then things start to change. 00:28:59.000 |
I think that basically the next ratchet up between $100,000 00:29:10.000 |
it's almost like an initial level of financial independence. 00:29:14.000 |
If you think of somebody who has--let's use the 4% rule. 00:29:17.000 |
You think of somebody who has $1 million in the bank 00:29:23.000 |
That's not a high-level lifestyle, but you can live on $40,000 a year. 00:29:29.000 |
In most places of the world, you can have an apartment that is safe 00:29:34.000 |
and that is comfortable and that is not rat-infested and roach-infested. 00:29:45.000 |
or at least all states and countries of the world, on $40,000. 00:29:50.000 |
Maybe not in Luxembourg or Liechtenstein or Switzerland or Singapore, 00:29:55.000 |
but you can live in many, many places on that. 00:29:59.000 |
So you think about what your great lifestyle is. 00:30:01.000 |
Maybe it's $3 million where you have $10,000 a month of income 00:30:07.000 |
That's a very strong middle-class lifestyle in most of the world. 00:30:12.000 |
So maybe you would just say, "I would never want to go below $3 million." 00:30:15.000 |
My point in using these numbers is at $500,000, 00:30:19.000 |
the difference between $100,000 saved and $2 million saved 00:30:31.000 |
$500,000 is just a bigger emergency fund, basically. 00:30:38.000 |
But you can live on the income from $2 million. 00:30:41.000 |
You're not living big time, but you're living comfortably, 00:30:47.000 |
So maybe your ratchet number is $100,000 and $2 million. 00:30:52.000 |
Then after $2 million, the question is, "All right, what's the next ratchet number?" 00:30:57.000 |
There's not a huge difference in lifestyle between $2 million and $3 million, 00:31:01.000 |
but there is a huge difference in lifestyle between $2 million and $10 million. 00:31:06.000 |
So maybe your ratchet number is then the next one is $10 million. 00:31:12.000 |
What I encourage you to do to figure out your numbers is to choose an arbitrary number 00:31:16.000 |
and then say, "If I had this amount of money saved, what would this allow me to do? 00:31:21.000 |
What could I do? How could I live? How would I spend the income from this?" 00:31:29.000 |
I've watched over the years many people who had, say, $3 million saved, 00:31:34.000 |
a number that for their lifestyle would have been perfectly adequate 00:31:40.000 |
and yet they just had this idea that, "I have to go, I have to go, I have to go." 00:31:44.000 |
So they would risk the $3 million, and by risk here I'm thinking especially of bringing in leverage, 00:31:49.000 |
too much leverage, too much risk, and they wind up shooting for $10,000, 00:31:53.000 |
and they wind up dropping back to $200,000 or $500,000 or something like that, 00:31:57.000 |
and now they're in a mess, and they've lost that initial stability of financial independence. 00:32:02.000 |
I don't care what your numbers are, but think carefully about them. 00:32:05.000 |
And as you reach a ratchet point, ask yourself, 00:32:08.000 |
"Can I ensure that I don't go below this number again? 00:32:11.000 |
Can I pull the risk off the table and then go for the next ratchet point 00:32:15.000 |
in some way that's going to ensure that I never go below this current number? 00:32:20.000 |
And how can I ensure and protect this current number?" 00:32:28.000 |
had hundreds of millions of dollars who then took another roll of the dice 00:32:33.000 |
and went in something where they faced government regulation, 00:32:36.000 |
they faced fraud accusations, they faced lawsuits, etc., 00:32:41.000 |
and if those people didn't have something set aside in an insurance fund, 00:32:48.000 |
But if you have something set aside in an insurance fund, 00:32:56.000 |
The way that you insure your assets, again, is very personalized. 00:32:59.000 |
At one level it might just be saying, "You know what? 00:33:02.000 |
I'm going to make sure that I take $10,000 of cash out of the bank 00:33:05.000 |
so that I always have money and I'm going to put it in my buddy's gun safe 00:33:10.000 |
At another level, your insurance fund might be saying, 00:33:14.000 |
And because my house has-- I live in Florida or Texas 00:33:17.000 |
and my house is completely exempt from the claims of creditors, 00:33:22.000 |
I'm going to make sure that I just pay off my house 00:33:27.000 |
and that way I'll always be able to sell a piece of real estate 00:33:30.000 |
and I'll always have the money in this house." 00:33:32.000 |
Or, "I'm going to make sure that I fully fund my IRA or my 401(k) every year 00:33:38.000 |
because that money in my 401(k) is protected from the claims of my creditors 00:33:42.000 |
and I'm going to invest that money into traditional mutual funds 00:33:49.000 |
I'm not going to do some crazy strategy in my 401(k). 00:33:52.000 |
At another level, it may be, "I'm going to take $5 million out of my portfolio. 00:33:57.000 |
I'm going to put this $5 million into a trust that is there 00:34:01.000 |
to make sure that it's out of my estate, it's transferred out, 00:34:05.000 |
it's going to be away and it's going to be protected from the claims of creditors. 00:34:09.000 |
And my family members and I, we may not be able to live great on the $5 million, 00:34:14.000 |
but by moving it offshore, moving it into an asset protection trust, etc., 00:34:18.000 |
at least if we lose everything, we'll still have that money. 00:34:21.000 |
And then I'm going to go over here and I'm going to roll my dice 00:34:26.000 |
If you imagine yourself as Sam What's-His-Name, the founder of FTX, 00:34:33.000 |
and here you are and one day you're a multi-billionaire 00:34:36.000 |
and then a week later there's a good chance that not only do you have no money, 00:34:41.000 |
but you wind up in a situation where you're going to face massive lawsuits 00:34:46.000 |
and potentially have any personal assets that you have wiped out, 00:34:50.000 |
Or imagine you're Alex Jones and one day you're doing well, 00:34:55.000 |
business is good, you've got millions of dollars flying in all over the place, 00:34:58.000 |
and then a few years later you're facing a billion dollars of court costs 00:35:06.000 |
So think of yourself in these situations and recognize that none of these guys 00:35:13.000 |
If you had talked to Alex Jones 10 years ago, 00:35:16.000 |
he would never have thought that the situation he's facing in would come to fruition. 00:35:22.000 |
he would never have thought that he'd be in this situation. 00:35:27.000 |
And so this is why in point four of the radical personal finance framework for wealth, 00:35:38.000 |
Remember number one is increase income, two, decrease expenses, 00:35:41.000 |
three, invest wisely, four is avoid catastrophe, 00:35:47.000 |
When you're avoiding catastrophe, you take off your rose-colored glasses 00:35:51.000 |
and you put on your disaster glasses and you say, 00:35:53.000 |
"What are all the bad things that could happen to me?" 00:35:55.000 |
And you do that and you say, "I should have an emergency fund," 00:35:58.000 |
or "There might be a global famine and I should have three months of food in the house," 00:36:02.000 |
or "I might get sued and all of a sudden I had $20 million 00:36:06.000 |
but now I'm wiped out and I've got a billion-dollar lawsuit against me," 00:36:11.000 |
or "I wind up owing a creditor hundreds of millions of dollars." 00:36:14.000 |
And you have to do this on a regular consistent basis 00:36:17.000 |
and then put in place the solutions way ahead of time 00:36:25.000 |
And the secret with asset protection planning, 00:36:27.000 |
the rule is once an event happens that gives rise to claims against you, 00:36:35.000 |
All of the money moves that you make at that point in time 00:36:38.000 |
can be undone by the judge and basically even to the point of taking away your freedom, 00:36:43.000 |
your physical freedom, locking you in prison. 00:36:45.000 |
But the stuff that happens long before that happens can be very well positioned. 00:36:51.000 |
You put aside money for your five-year-old daughter, your five-year-old son, 00:37:00.000 |
and you set up a family trust that is going to benefit your five-year-old daughter, 00:37:05.000 |
Fast forward 20 years, your child gets married, then gets divorced. 00:37:09.000 |
Well, the money that was in the trust can be positioned to be completely exempt 00:37:15.000 |
from the divorce claims, and your child can continue to be wealthy 00:37:18.000 |
regardless of what the judge says in the divorce case. 00:37:20.000 |
But if you gave the money to your child at 20-something years old 00:37:24.000 |
and it was never in the trust, and then the divorce happens, 00:37:30.000 |
You have to look at when disaster strikes other people 00:37:33.000 |
and then ask yourself, "What will I do if disaster strikes me?" 00:37:37.000 |
And I believe that this thinking is extremely valuable, 00:37:46.000 |
How many smoke detectors do you have in your house? 00:37:48.000 |
Have you checked the batteries? Do you have a ladder 00:37:50.000 |
so that your children can get out of the second-floor window 00:37:53.000 |
down to the first-floor window in case of a fire without breaking their legs? 00:37:57.000 |
Have you prepared in advance a family meeting spot? 00:38:05.000 |
All of the humdrum daily stuff is a big deal. 00:38:09.000 |
Do you have the ability to flag down EMS when you have a heart attack? 00:38:14.000 |
Is your driveway clearly labeled so that if you call 911 when having a heart attack, 00:38:21.000 |
And at every level, as your wealth increases, 00:38:23.000 |
you have to think about more and more of these things, 00:38:31.000 |
What are those things, the defibrillation machines? 00:38:34.000 |
An example would be that if somebody is completely broke, 00:38:38.000 |
then having--the name completely went to me--the things that you put on your heart, 00:38:43.000 |
That's why you see them in so many commercial locations. 00:38:47.000 |
But when you get to a point with your wealth, 00:38:50.000 |
you should have one of those in your own home 00:38:52.000 |
so that if it comes down to you need one of those-- 00:39:00.000 |
But it's the kind of thing where you look at it and say, 00:39:02.000 |
"Okay, I'm going to go ahead and get this because who knows, 00:39:09.000 |
like nuclear fallout bunkers and bomb bunkers, etc. 00:39:15.000 |
to worry about setting up a nuclear radiation fallout shelter. 00:39:20.000 |
The risk of needing a nuclear radiation fallout shelter 00:39:24.000 |
is so low that there's no point in somebody who is broke doing that. 00:39:30.000 |
and you don't have some form of nuclear fallout shelter prepared, 00:39:35.000 |
then why are you not paying attention to these small things that could happen? 00:39:40.000 |
Or a better example would be a tornado shelter. 00:39:44.000 |
obviously you go and invest in a tornado shelter. 00:39:46.000 |
But people just ignore it until the storm comes through. 00:39:50.000 |
So when the tornadoes tear up the state next to you 00:39:54.000 |
or when the guys get blown up on the FTX exchange, 00:39:58.000 |
look at that and then go back to your own portfolio and say, 00:40:04.000 |
And then think about what ratcheting points you don't want to go below. 00:40:09.000 |
So if you're going to take a risk in some kind of aggressive investment, 00:40:16.000 |
This is one of those things that I'll give you the best answer 00:40:32.000 |
it will make a substantial difference to your life. 00:40:46.000 |
Let's imagine you've got a net worth of $5 million. 00:40:51.000 |
I'm going to go and I'm going to get involved. 00:40:53.000 |
There's this fancy new project that I want to get involved in 00:41:03.000 |
and I'm going to invest $5,000 in this investment." 00:41:11.000 |
which is, of course, horrifically difficult to do. 00:41:18.000 |
Did that change your financial future in any meaningful way? 00:41:43.000 |
So clearly, even if you had a 100x investment 00:41:52.000 |
to make any kind of difference in your financial situation. 00:42:04.000 |
And let's assume this magical investment 100xs. 00:42:08.000 |
Well, now all of a sudden you've got $5 million. 00:42:10.000 |
And that does fundamentally change your overall lifestyle. 00:42:26.000 |
You don't go all of a sudden to flying on private jets. 00:42:34.000 |
What if you put $150,000 into your 100x investment? 00:42:40.000 |
Well, now you just fundamentally changed everything. 00:42:44.000 |
To go from $5 million to $20 million in net worth 00:43:03.000 |
Obviously, 100x is virtually impossible to achieve 00:43:10.000 |
You've got to invest enough to where the 100x return 00:43:27.000 |
your net worth is going to be bouncing around 00:43:30.000 |
half a million dollars, a million dollars a year regardless, 00:43:32.000 |
just with normal investment market fluctuations. 00:43:37.000 |
You're very much in the range of where it still 00:43:44.000 |
And so you play with these numbers and you say, 00:43:46.000 |
"What's the maximum upside I could ever engage in 00:43:49.000 |
and you choose a number that's going to allow you 00:43:53.000 |
to have enough of an impact to where it's going 00:44:06.000 |
So maybe you say, "My big speculation is to 10x." 00:44:14.000 |
You put $150,000 into an investment and it 10xs? 00:44:18.000 |
Well, that's $1.5 million, but now it just doesn't make that, 00:44:26.000 |
I mean, you're richer, but it's not lifestyle changing. 00:44:30.000 |
And so on the other hand, if you lose $150,000, 00:44:38.000 |
and your expected losses and assume your investment 00:44:49.000 |
is choose a number where on the upside it makes enough sense 00:44:53.000 |
to where you're actually excited about taking the huge risk 00:44:55.000 |
with a speculative investment, and on the downside 00:44:59.000 |
and you can stomach the risk of losing it all. 00:45:02.000 |
The numbers will be different depending on your income, 00:45:04.000 |
depending on your assets, depending on your other 00:45:15.000 |
in order to arrive at the right number for you. 00:45:23.000 |
and you have a big investment that has actually won for you? 00:45:29.000 |
I've been fortunate over the years to have quite a lot 00:45:33.000 |
and I've worked with a lot of them in private consulting. 00:45:38.000 |
And here's what's so astonishing about crypto millionaires 00:45:48.000 |
and yet they have come based upon market forces 00:45:52.000 |
So there's a huge amount of insecurity and uncertainty 00:45:58.000 |
that is generally not there when people have a business. 00:46:07.000 |
than if you've built your wealth in a financial speculation. 00:46:11.000 |
When you have a business, you have cash flow, 00:46:28.000 |
you wind up facing the reality that you can't value it. 00:46:43.000 |
And in many cases, the wins have come so quickly 00:46:53.000 |
has always been to go back to these concepts that I've said, 00:46:59.000 |
and the concept of what changes your life in the future 00:47:08.000 |
and you wind up as a suddenly newly minted millionaire, 00:47:13.000 |
losing millionaire status is not an attractive idea 00:47:16.000 |
because what you've bought for yourself is freedom. 00:47:23.000 |
no debts, modest cash flow requirements, et cetera, 00:47:29.000 |
you don't ever have to do anything you don't want to do. 00:47:33.000 |
You don't ever have to take a job you don't want to have. 00:47:35.000 |
You don't have to do anything that you don't want to do. 00:47:40.000 |
And so what I've always counseled is choose the number 00:47:43.000 |
that you don't ever want to go below again in your life 00:47:53.000 |
that has a better track record, a better history, 00:47:58.000 |
And there are various ways that you can do that. 00:48:01.000 |
On the other hand, if you still want to play, 00:48:04.000 |
then you've got to make sure that you're playing enough 00:48:17.000 |
And each person, based upon his own risk tolerance, 00:48:22.000 |
his own lifestyle ambitions and goals, et cetera, 00:48:33.000 |
Always remember, profits that are not taken off the table 00:48:42.000 |
Money that is up but you don't take it off the table 00:48:48.000 |
For me, I grew of age during the dot-com boom. 00:48:55.000 |
A friend of a friend, kind of a middle-aged guy, 00:48:59.000 |
and all of a sudden he was driving a Porsche. 00:49:08.000 |
And then six months later, the Porsche was sold. 00:49:10.000 |
And he was back living in his parents' house, 00:49:15.000 |
When you win, no matter how confident you are in the future, 00:49:21.000 |
"If I can take profits and I can set them aside into cash, 00:49:27.000 |
then I can fundamentally change the rest of my life." 00:49:30.000 |
So don't play hot and heavy if you haven't ensured the downside. 00:49:41.000 |
If you double an investment, take money off the table. 00:49:47.000 |
If you 5x an investment, take more money off the table. 00:49:50.000 |
If you 10x an investment, take huge amounts of money off the table. 00:50:00.000 |
And many people, in the massive increase in Bitcoin 00:50:05.000 |
and other cryptocurrency values, have 100x their investment. 00:50:09.000 |
But you cannot 100x something for long at all. 00:50:14.000 |
You can't even go at a 3% growth for long at all. 00:50:21.000 |
The power of compound interest is always there. 00:50:26.000 |
Some months ago, somebody had gotten involved in some scheme. 00:50:31.000 |
They came to me and promised extraordinary gains. 00:50:34.000 |
And I just immediately said, "This is a scam." 00:50:39.000 |
Because based upon the numbers that somebody is promising you, 00:50:46.000 |
within a very short time, all the money in the world sucked up. 00:50:51.000 |
And so, if you ever got one 100x growth in your life, that's it. 00:51:00.000 |
And so, recognize. Don't think, "This is normal. I can just keep doing this." 00:51:09.000 |
There are enough assets that if you have enough time, can double up. 00:51:12.000 |
5x something, could you do that once or twice in your life? 00:51:17.000 |
If you can do it more, you'll be in the hallmark, the hall of the heroes. 00:51:21.000 |
You'll be up there with Elon and Warren and all the great investors. 00:51:28.000 |
There are physical constraints that hold back these assets. 00:51:33.000 |
Any asset. Stock prices, value of the dollar, value of Bitcoin, etc. 00:51:46.000 |
Again, you can decide the numbers, but don't be stupid and keep everything going 00:51:53.000 |
Recognize that booms are almost always followed by busts. 00:52:01.000 |
So, if you're booming, I want to be Mr. Negative and say, "The bust is coming." 00:52:06.000 |
If you're busting, I want to be Mr. Encouragement to say, "Hey, the boom may come." 00:52:17.000 |
We're emotionally driven creatures that get irrationally exuberant when times are good 00:52:21.000 |
and irrationally despondent when times are bad. 00:52:28.000 |
There are more rules that could be applied to investing. 00:52:33.000 |
If you can't explain it to a child, don't do it. 00:52:38.000 |
This came up on the Friday Q&A show where somebody was talking about how-- 00:52:54.000 |
The attorney was saying, "Well, you can do this kind of trust or this kind of trust," 00:53:00.000 |
If you can't explain to me why the attorney is saying to do it, 00:53:03.000 |
there's a good chance you're being swindled." 00:53:05.000 |
Now, go back to the attorney, give another chance, say, "Maybe I'm just dense 00:53:08.000 |
and I didn't understand. Can you try this again?" 00:53:10.000 |
But if a financial expert can't explain something simple enough 00:53:13.000 |
so that you clearly understand what it is and why you would want to do it 00:53:16.000 |
or not want to do it, then that person is, in my opinion, 00:53:26.000 |
If you can't explain to your child, your elementary school child, 00:53:30.000 |
or your niece, or your nephew, or a random child that you walk up to on the street, 00:53:34.000 |
if you can't explain the basic value proposition of your business 00:53:53.000 |
There might just not be any usefulness to it. 00:53:57.000 |
It's easy to say that when everything is crashing. 00:54:01.000 |
And you're like, "Now, of course, if I just stuck to it, that would be great." 00:54:05.000 |
It's harder to say that when it seems like everyone is winning. 00:54:07.000 |
But at its core, if you can't fundamentally explain the value of this to someone else, 00:54:26.000 |
because one of the things that's interesting over the years 00:54:28.000 |
with my involvement in Bitcoin and my Bitcoin education, 00:54:31.000 |
people say, "Well, if I just understand Bitcoin more, then I'll invest in it." 00:54:35.000 |
And they go on, "I can't understand it, understand it, understand it." 00:54:39.000 |
And they never understand it, they never invest in it, or they never buy coins. 00:54:42.000 |
But what's funny is that I actually have a very hard time explaining something like a dollar. 00:54:51.000 |
I have a master's degree in financial planning. 00:54:53.000 |
I've been paying attention to finance for 20 years. 00:54:55.000 |
I've read hundreds, if not, let's just say hundreds and hundreds of books on money. 00:55:00.000 |
If you ask me today, off the cuff, to explain how money is created, 00:55:05.000 |
it is such a convoluted, ridiculous system that it's exceedingly difficult for me to do. 00:55:12.000 |
Maybe that's the fundamental truth of the fakeness of money. 00:55:20.000 |
And so I can explain it as long as I just focus on the utility of money, 00:55:27.000 |
the fact that it has value because everybody wants it, 00:55:30.000 |
and when everybody doesn't want it, it no longer has value. 00:55:33.000 |
When you try to explain how a dollar is magically created out of thin air, 00:55:39.000 |
So you've got to be careful, because sometimes that can go too far. 00:55:42.000 |
But at its core, you should have some concept of how to explain this. 00:55:47.000 |
If I explain Bitcoin to somebody, I can do it simply in about a minute 00:55:53.000 |
to the point where you say, "Okay, if that works, and if people like how that works, 00:55:58.000 |
I can understand what the utility of that is." 00:56:03.000 |
But then there are other ones where it's just so obviously difficult, 00:56:14.000 |
I'll close with this because I don't know if I'll actually make the other show or not. 00:56:18.000 |
If you are in the midst of collapse, if your trading account on FTX is wiped out, 00:56:25.000 |
if you've lost half your net worth, et cetera, what I beg of you is do not become despondent. 00:56:31.000 |
Do not--in fact, I'm going to go for just a couple more minutes 00:56:39.000 |
I've been wanting to do a show on "Don't kill yourself over something so stupid 00:56:49.000 |
And there was a crypto guy who was saying, "The last few days in the crypto world 00:56:54.000 |
And a random person says, "I've lost almost everything. 00:57:14.000 |
For me, usually one or two nights of sleep can change things. 00:57:18.000 |
There are times where something happens, my emotions are so upset that I feel sick to my stomach. 00:57:26.000 |
Usually if I can get one night's sleep, then I can see everything clear. 00:57:31.000 |
So cry, be angry, be upset, get a night's sleep, and then with a calm head, 00:57:35.000 |
come back and study your options and see if anything can be recovered. 00:57:42.000 |
Can you minimize your risk on the rest of your portfolio? 00:57:47.000 |
Then the most important thing is exercise and sunlight and relationships. 00:58:03.000 |
I know what it's like to be in a dark place mentally. 00:58:09.000 |
In fact, interestingly, the last months of my life have been some of the darkest of my life. 00:58:16.000 |
It's just emotionally you get into those black periods. 00:58:20.000 |
And so you've got to start with what you can start with. 00:58:22.000 |
And so exercise, sunlight, relationships, friendships, being with other people, et cetera. 00:58:28.000 |
Then in terms of money, the situation is easy. 00:58:39.000 |
Once you're earning money, you can figure out how much you can afford to live on. 00:58:49.000 |
And then some people, you might have to sell a house. 00:58:58.000 |
But the point is in our modern day, one of the things that we're very, very fortunate is 00:59:02.000 |
you're not going to die from a financial mistake unless you literally choose to kill yourself, 00:59:22.000 |
It's an imaginary concept that we use to try to organize society. 00:59:27.000 |
If you lose all your money, it was all fake in the beginning. 00:59:34.000 |
Most millionaires have gone completely broke at least a couple times. 00:59:38.000 |
And because money is fake, in the same way that it can go quickly, it can come quickly. 00:59:47.000 |
It may take 10 years, but 10 years of work puts you in a dramatically different place, 00:59:53.000 |
The only thing that ends your life is literally if you end your life. 01:00:01.000 |
Stupid causes irreparable harm to you and to everyone around you. 01:00:08.000 |
Number one, just stop paying bills if you need to. 01:00:11.000 |
The entire system can collapse around you, meaning the personal system, people. 01:00:15.000 |
We all take risks when we lend money to people, et cetera. 01:00:18.000 |
I had somebody--I lent someone a lot of money. 01:00:21.000 |
Did it going in--last couple years, did it going in, knowing that it may not be returned. 01:00:32.000 |
Bankruptcy will end most of your financial obligations. 01:00:35.000 |
You can dig into the various kinds of bankruptcy and choose one that's right for you. 01:00:39.000 |
But bankruptcy can control your creditors in a powerful way, and you can start over again. 01:00:49.000 |
Most people go broke a couple times before they make it. 01:00:51.000 |
You'll learn your lessons, and you'll press on. 01:00:58.000 |
So I guess my plea with you is if you're in a dark place, don't do the things that are irreparable. 01:01:10.000 |
Sunshine, exercise, a job, social contact, work steadily. 01:01:22.000 |
I hope these rules help some of you to avoid the catastrophe that many people are facing right now. 01:01:26.000 |
I hope that FTX can recover in some way and make whole the people who have depended upon it in some way. 01:01:34.000 |
Remember that if you want to learn how to buy Bitcoin and other coins, but primarily Bitcoin, 01:01:42.000 |
in a way where it's actually protected from things like the collapse of the second largest exchange out there, 01:01:54.000 |
The holidays start here at Ralph's with a variety of options to celebrate traditions old and new. 01:02:00.000 |
Whether you're making a traditional roasted turkey or spicy turkey tacos, 01:02:04.000 |
your go-to shrimp cocktail, or your first Cajun risotto, 01:02:08.000 |
Ralph's has all the freshest ingredients to embrace your traditions. 01:02:14.000 |
We've locked in low prices to help you save big store-wide. 01:02:17.000 |
Look for the locked in low prices tags and enjoy extra savings throughout the store.