back to index2022-03-10_1_of_3-Financial_Lessons_Learned_from_Ukraine
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Today on Radical Personal Finance, part one of a three-part series. 00:00:33.620 |
Today, financial lessons learned from Ukraine. 00:00:53.980 |
Welcome to Radical Personal Finance, a show dedicated to providing you with the knowledge, 00:00:57.260 |
skills, insight and encouragement you need to live a rich and meaningful life now, while 00:01:01.660 |
building a plan for financial freedom in 10 years or less. 00:01:04.660 |
My name is Josh Raschitz, and today we're going to talk about financial lessons learned 00:01:09.900 |
Our TV screens, our mobile screens have been filled with lessons, and I want to categorize 00:01:16.260 |
them and archive them and get them into your and my head, so at least we can gain some 00:01:21.540 |
good from the suffering of our fellow humans. 00:01:24.260 |
One of the most important things about when bad things happen is learning from them, because 00:01:31.940 |
so frequently things happen and they're awful, but at least if you can gain some lessons 00:01:36.980 |
from your own suffering and from the suffering of others, then we can minimize human suffering 00:01:43.260 |
So let's do that today by talking about Ukraine. 00:01:46.220 |
Before we begin, though, today's podcast is brought to you by BitcoinPrivacyCourse.com. 00:01:51.340 |
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Listen, if you were cut off from your money, if banks were collapsed, if everything stopped 00:02:09.660 |
and you were totally cut off, could you still gain access to spending power? 00:02:14.820 |
If you had to flee your country because of war and run away with nothing but the clothes 00:02:19.820 |
on your back, could you go into a foreign country, sit down at a computer and with nothing 00:02:25.940 |
more than a simple passphrase stored in your head, access your life savings? 00:02:31.340 |
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if you're signed up by then to participate in the live Q&A and make sure that all of 00:03:37.060 |
In this series, we're going to have part one is financial lessons from Ukraine, part two 00:03:41.780 |
is going to be lessons from Russia, part three is going to be lessons in the United States. 00:03:47.700 |
What you'll observe as we build is you'll observe the increasing financialization of 00:03:55.640 |
I'm titling this "Financial Lessons from Ukraine." 00:03:58.860 |
These are financial lessons, but what you'll notice as I go through these is how non-financial 00:04:06.680 |
We're not going to talk about stocks, bonds, even insurance policies because what you see 00:04:11.160 |
is there are things that can happen that cause all of the financial stuff to basically disappear 00:04:20.520 |
When your life is threatened, your physical security is threatened, everything else disappears 00:04:26.800 |
Here, I always think of the classic Maslow's hierarchy of needs. 00:04:31.420 |
At the bottom of the pyramid, those fundamental foundational needs, we have physical needs, 00:04:40.440 |
Then we build up to love and belonging and esteem and self-actualization. 00:04:45.520 |
What happens is most of us spend most of our time thinking about the fact that we want 00:04:52.200 |
How can I express myself more fully in my career? 00:04:55.560 |
This particular job doesn't bring me pleasure. 00:04:58.240 |
How can I become financially independent so I can experience what it truly means to be 00:05:07.880 |
But what happens is we take for granted the fact that all of our basic needs are met by 00:05:17.280 |
And because of our recent experience, for most of us, we think that a functional society 00:05:29.560 |
Throughout virtually all of human history, uncertainty about those basic level needs 00:05:39.120 |
Uncertainty about what am I going to eat tomorrow or today? 00:05:46.520 |
Will my neighbor come and try to steal from me? 00:05:49.520 |
Will a neighboring village try to invade our village and take our stuff and steal our women 00:06:00.040 |
That's the normal way that life has been experienced by virtually all of our fellow humans through 00:06:05.160 |
virtually all of human civilization, or I should say human existence. 00:06:16.400 |
And we need to stop and ask ourselves, how did that happen? 00:06:21.680 |
How did we build a civilized world where so many of us give virtually no thought to what 00:06:27.840 |
we're going to eat, what we're going to drink, how we're going to afford it, etc.? 00:06:33.180 |
Because that's the aberration in human history. 00:06:36.200 |
Now it's my hope and prayer that in the fullness of time it will not be the aberration, that 00:06:42.480 |
We're in a transition point in human history. 00:06:46.400 |
And at this time it's important that we stop and recognize that when your life is threatened, 00:06:55.740 |
So we need to actually think carefully about security, both the security of our bodies, 00:07:02.560 |
not to be impaled from above by a bomb or hit by a piece of shrapnel or shot by some 00:07:09.160 |
dude with a gun, and then also the greater extension of that, our security of our basic 00:07:18.560 |
This is, I think, one of the interesting differentiating factors of radical personal finance, is that 00:07:24.360 |
I always saw as a financial planner, professional financial planner, I always saw the usefulness 00:07:29.260 |
of modern financial instruments in most circumstances. 00:07:33.440 |
But I always felt that fundamentally at its core, financial planning should encompass 00:07:41.580 |
And because of the specialization of labor and the economies that most of us live in, 00:07:51.500 |
When we think financial planning, we fundamentally at its core, always consider the things that 00:07:55.980 |
the financial industry can sell a product to. 00:07:57.860 |
That's what we're trained and conditioned to believe is the most important. 00:08:01.780 |
We're fundamentally trained and conditioned to believe that financial planning means having 00:08:05.820 |
a budget, life insurance, making sure we put money in our retirement account, et cetera. 00:08:12.980 |
We're never going to get, nor should financial planners be necessarily comprehensive. 00:08:16.860 |
But for you and me, I want us to think about financial planning beyond that. 00:08:20.580 |
I always think about the fact that my physical health is what allows me to make money. 00:08:25.660 |
And yes, I want to have disability insurance, but I also want to focus on my physical health. 00:08:30.020 |
Because while I appreciate the fact, the miracle of the modern financial world that I can buy 00:08:34.180 |
a life insurance policy for a few shekels per month, and then wind up that in the fullness 00:08:39.540 |
of time, my family is cared for if I'm dead, I have a greater interest in actually not 00:08:46.500 |
And so my financial planning needs to include taking care of my physical health. 00:08:52.040 |
My financial planning needs to take care, make sure that it includes taking care of 00:08:57.860 |
And what happens is when you come back to an acute circumstance, that it becomes obvious. 00:09:03.380 |
In the same way that when a guy gets diagnosed with cancer, he'll spend every dollar of his 00:09:13.420 |
Or a guy has a heart attack, he'll quickly recognize, "Man, I got to get this cared for." 00:09:17.740 |
And all of a sudden, the $200 or the $1,000 a month nutrition coach and personal trainer, 00:09:24.620 |
et cetera, all of a sudden now it feels like a steal of a deal. 00:09:28.140 |
Whereas before it felt like, "Oh, I got to be frugal. 00:09:31.500 |
Well, in the same way that that applies in more ordinary circumstances, things like war 00:09:36.940 |
come in, and that lesson is magnified times 10. 00:09:41.020 |
When your life is threatened, everything else disappears in importance. 00:09:45.140 |
So always make sure that your financial planning doesn't ignore those basic things. 00:09:53.140 |
Financial planning in an intensely financialized manner with financial instruments is good, 00:10:02.500 |
but it needs to be built on a strong foundation. 00:10:06.020 |
And again, you'll hear that emphasis expanded. 00:10:09.140 |
Ukraine is the tip of the spear right now, quite literally. 00:10:12.780 |
And our friends in Ukraine are facing a complete obliteration of all the normal stuff. 00:10:21.660 |
And you see how in these most desperate of circumstances, it goes back to those fundamentals. 00:10:34.940 |
And I know that sounds like, "Obviously," but I mean it. 00:10:39.500 |
I think it's important that we recognize this. 00:10:41.460 |
It's important that we teach our children this. 00:10:43.420 |
I remember when I was a young boy, you think about war, you hear about war, and it sounds 00:10:51.620 |
That's why they let young boys, teenagers, 18-year-old, 20-year-old men sign up and fight 00:11:20.780 |
Now I understand you say, "Yes, well if you make it through, you make it through, yeah, 00:11:26.380 |
But what happens is even that, even the very best case, right? 00:11:30.260 |
You're living in a city where it is under war, under siege from an invading army. 00:11:35.580 |
In the very best case, this is going to be a nightmare that will haunt you the rest of 00:11:42.820 |
Even if you can physically maintain your breath and your beating heart, physically alive, 00:11:50.560 |
this is a nightmare that will haunt you the rest of your life. 00:11:53.940 |
You'll have trouble sleeping because you worry about, "Is a bomb going to come in and obliterate 00:12:03.340 |
When you go through war and you experience the trauma of wondering if today my life ends, 00:12:10.060 |
when you experience the trauma of killing somebody, even if you're fully justified in 00:12:14.620 |
the defense of your home, this destroys your life. 00:12:19.260 |
And it takes your capacity as a human being, which was very high, and it brings it down 00:12:24.460 |
to something significantly less than what it was. 00:12:38.180 |
Thriving means that you're going to make progress on long-term goals. 00:12:41.260 |
But what you see when war comes is that immediately everything shortens up to today, to literally 00:12:50.300 |
You're not thinking about, "What am I going to do when I retire?" 00:12:52.540 |
You're not thinking about, "What are we going to do for vacation next year?" 00:12:55.340 |
You're not thinking about, "How can I expand my business and improve my profits over the 00:13:03.460 |
And what happens is this takes an intense toll on a man. 00:13:13.980 |
You start to think about today because it's all you have. 00:13:17.820 |
We always see this in the classics of war movies. 00:13:21.540 |
"Okay, well, I quit smoking, but give me the pack of cigarettes because I need that release 00:13:29.100 |
Very passionate love affairs, stupid decisions that people make because life is reduced to 00:13:36.940 |
This is really bad for your long-term success because one of the success markers for those 00:13:41.380 |
who build empires and legacies is always the ability to think long-term. 00:13:47.540 |
People who go through war get scarred and they lose a significant part of their long-term 00:14:04.140 |
You cannot thrive and you cannot really even survive in war. 00:14:11.420 |
Now the number three lesson is this, prepping works, sort of. 00:14:18.420 |
And here I mean the traditional sense of prepping. 00:14:22.780 |
When you look at prepping, just like financial planning has its blinders, I love the world 00:14:29.180 |
of preparedness, prepping, survivalism, but it also has its blinders. 00:14:34.980 |
But there are some senses in which prepping in the traditional sense works. 00:14:44.780 |
Having a plan to get out from where you are, and especially to get out of the cities to 00:14:50.140 |
a safer, more rural destination, that has been unbelievably important. 00:14:56.100 |
I think you see here that while we usually lean on cities as a fundamental part of our 00:15:08.500 |
You see the growth all over the world of mega cities and everyone moving from the country 00:15:13.760 |
You see also how cities are basically unsurvivable in difficult times. 00:15:27.080 |
They're targeting the places where the people are, where the infrastructure is. 00:15:32.860 |
You get a much more bang for your buck in terms of the effectiveness of your munitions 00:15:37.900 |
and your gunpowder if you target them to cities where they can destroy massive amounts of 00:15:46.380 |
And in addition to that, that's where the people are. 00:15:48.820 |
If you had a little country retreat in Ukraine and you could get out of the city, you're 00:15:57.700 |
Your family, if you could get your family out, even if you need to come back and fight 00:16:00.740 |
in the city because that's where the soldiers are, if you can get your family out to the 00:16:08.820 |
In addition, modern cities are just not survivable if the infrastructure goes down. 00:16:17.040 |
Either on a physical attack or a cyber attack, they tackle infrastructure. 00:16:20.780 |
If you have a flat on the 10th floor of an apartment in downtown Kiev and your electricity 00:16:26.940 |
goes out and your municipal water supply goes out, your apartment quickly becomes a health 00:16:33.220 |
You may be able to stay there for a few days, but you're not going to make it being there 00:16:39.620 |
Your apartment will become a disease infested hell hole. 00:16:46.620 |
If you live in a city, you need to have a plan to get out of the city. 00:16:49.720 |
And so that should be a fundamental part of your preparations. 00:16:55.820 |
At the very least, think about where you could go and how you could get there. 00:16:59.860 |
Maybe you have a country cousin you could go and see, a relative. 00:17:03.700 |
Maybe you have a little piece of land that you put a camper on. 00:17:06.620 |
Maybe you have a little vacation house out by the lake. 00:17:08.780 |
But what you see is that almost any vacation house, lake house, little rural retreat is 00:17:19.680 |
Having a plan to have supplies stockpiled is extremely important. 00:17:24.740 |
And you see the impact of it right now in the Ukrainian situation. 00:17:29.980 |
Now the amazing thing is to see that it seems that many of the Ukrainian systems are still 00:17:37.100 |
I've seen interesting videos of people going around showing the shelves in the supermarket 00:17:42.460 |
and you hear shells going off and being dropped outside and yet you see that hey, the supermarket 00:17:50.340 |
But I think you see that the stockpiling of provisions is a really, really important deal. 00:17:56.660 |
Making sure that you have supplies of food, supplies of medicine, medical equipment is 00:18:06.100 |
And those who are well prepared in Ukraine are going to be able to protect those that 00:18:13.380 |
They're going to be able to help their fellow citizens to rebuild, et cetera. 00:18:19.620 |
I think I even extend this to the military aspects. 00:18:30.860 |
But I've often wondered, is it really worth it to prep for military invasion? 00:18:37.540 |
And it just seems so far-fetched to me that it's just not been that big of a factor. 00:18:43.700 |
But when you watch in Ukraine, you watch them handing out AK-47s on the street to whoever 00:18:49.000 |
will come, and you think about all the second-order effects of that, you all of a sudden realize, 00:18:53.860 |
yeah, those martial preparations are really valuable. 00:19:00.940 |
But I think the bigger plan is next, number four. 00:19:05.260 |
Having a plan to get out of the country entirely is still the best possible thing that you 00:19:10.420 |
In my course that I first started teaching a couple of years ago, which by the way, it's 00:19:15.060 |
not been on the market for the last year, I'm revising it and splitting it out. 00:19:18.780 |
But in that course called How to Survive and Thrive During the Coming Economic Crisis, 00:19:22.620 |
what I did was I talked about basically the two aspects of how to survive and thrive during 00:19:29.900 |
Part number one is what I just talked about, what we call preparedness. 00:19:34.340 |
And basically, preparedness involves stockpiling supplies, making preparations to do without 00:19:42.700 |
It's everything from having a couple of solar panels so that you can have some electric 00:19:46.660 |
light in your house if the grid power goes down, having water, water purifier so that 00:19:51.700 |
if the grid water goes down, you can have access to clean drinking water for your family 00:20:01.040 |
But then the second part of the course has all been about getting out, getting out of 00:20:07.660 |
I have for years, I've watched, you go on YouTube and you watch people do tours of their 00:20:13.100 |
And you know what I almost never see in those bags? 00:20:16.220 |
It's these things, passport and a credit card. 00:20:20.760 |
To me, that's number one, passport and a credit card. 00:20:23.980 |
Give me a passport and a credit card and I'm going to the airport and I'm out of here. 00:20:28.620 |
Because the best way to do well in a crisis is not to be in that crisis place at all. 00:20:34.420 |
I want you to think about those things that I articulated a little bit earlier about the 00:20:40.600 |
Imagine how destructive it is to you, to your family, to watch, to be involved in war. 00:20:48.080 |
Even if you personally escape with your life still technically going, the psychological 00:20:55.560 |
destruction and trauma that you experience being in a war zone will haunt you for the 00:21:05.200 |
Imagine you can protect your children from that. 00:21:08.120 |
Imagine you can get your family members out of that. 00:21:12.520 |
It's infinitely better to be in that situation than to experience that trauma for the rest 00:21:21.080 |
Now I think one of the things that's so fascinating about the Ukrainian situation is you see such 00:21:28.000 |
a clear and obvious example of a war defense that is actually morally justified. 00:21:37.900 |
The majority of the wars that my own nation has been involved in over the years have been 00:21:42.820 |
very difficult to justify ethically and morally. 00:21:47.640 |
But it is absolutely justified ethically and morally for you to defend your own home, for 00:21:54.560 |
you to defend your own village from invading attackers who are coming in and destroying 00:22:00.480 |
and stealing and killing and raping and looting. 00:22:08.300 |
So here's what's amazing to me to look at and to think about. 00:22:12.200 |
Even in that situation, the most morally justified war effort, defense of your own village, your 00:22:18.980 |
own home, is it better to be there and fight it out or is it better to not be there? 00:22:27.100 |
And I think that although when I was 20 I would have said, "Fight it out," today at 00:22:34.580 |
20 plus a decade and a half, I look at it and I say, "I'm not doing it. 00:22:43.980 |
Now on the one hand, that can be seen as a point of cowardice, right? 00:22:49.140 |
And I've asked myself even thoroughly, searched, like, "Okay, Joshua, you're a coward. 00:23:01.980 |
If my children grow up as orphans, why did they grow up as orphans? 00:23:07.980 |
If my wife is widowed because I'm killed, what is the benefit? 00:23:16.160 |
So why not start with what is better, which is to make sure that my children don't grow 00:23:20.380 |
up fatherless, to make sure that my wife is not widowed, and make a plan to leave. 00:23:28.500 |
Having a plan to get out of a region that's under severe effect is the very best plan 00:23:35.980 |
It's the best thing that you can possibly do. 00:23:39.420 |
You must have a plan to get out, to escape your country. 00:23:52.340 |
But it should be live here within a couple of days. 00:24:13.780 |
You can always come back if you decide that's the right thing to do. 00:24:16.940 |
But you see these heartbreaking videos of men putting their wives and children on a 00:24:28.340 |
And that's what my newest course, which should be live in hopefully just a very couple of 00:24:35.820 |
Simple, straightforward, actionable, totally doable. 00:24:40.620 |
Having a plan to get out of your country entirely is the best possible thing you could do. 00:24:47.020 |
Even if you yourself choose later to go and fight, that's fine. 00:24:53.860 |
But you'll be in a much better situation doing that from a place of strength, knowing your 00:25:01.380 |
family at least is safe and secure, minimizing the trauma that your family faces, knowing 00:25:08.340 |
at least that your grandparents are perhaps out of danger. 00:25:19.060 |
You see so clearly right now in the Ukrainian situation that every Ukrainian family that 00:25:25.300 |
has gotten out of Ukraine is not facing those same horrific situations that those who are 00:25:35.380 |
And it's indescribably better for your long-term success, for the long-term thriving of your 00:25:41.260 |
family, for the long-term strength of your community for you to be out. 00:25:48.560 |
Lesson number five, pay attention to the warning signs. 00:26:01.620 |
I had a regular listener of Radical Personal Finance know that in several previous Q&A 00:26:06.940 |
episodes over the last couple of months, I've had a Ukrainian listener who called and inquired 00:26:13.860 |
my opinion on whether or not his parents who were living in Ukraine should leave. 00:26:20.780 |
And I gave the advice, "Yes, they should leave." 00:26:24.940 |
I said, "If you are at all concerned that there is any reasonable threat that the Russian 00:26:30.820 |
army next door might invade, you should leave. 00:26:34.340 |
Because number one, it's better to be months too early than it is a day too late. 00:26:39.620 |
And number two, as long as the cost of leaving is not too high," right? 00:26:44.660 |
In his case, his parents were retired, not trying to run an active business, not trying 00:26:50.660 |
They could go with their son, had the appropriate visas and such to be able to travel to the 00:26:54.820 |
United States where their son was, be welcomed with family. 00:26:59.300 |
The cost of leaving is very low compared to the potential cost of staying. 00:27:03.980 |
But you have to get out early, so you have to pay attention to the warning signs. 00:27:08.260 |
Now what's interesting is I gave that advice and then I went back and I started looking 00:27:11.940 |
at the situation because I hadn't been following it closely. 00:27:13.980 |
And I was like, "Wait a second, maybe they're not going to invade. 00:27:20.940 |
And maybe this is just the United States intelligence pumping this up, or maybe it's the Western 00:27:26.860 |
And I was like, "Yeah, the US intelligence agencies were right. 00:27:29.780 |
Turns out that those that said that Russia was going to invade, they were right." 00:27:35.060 |
And so the interesting thing was I wondered, right? 00:27:39.420 |
They said, "No, Russia's not going to invade. 00:27:42.900 |
But still the simple practical philosophy of get out early, it worked. 00:27:46.140 |
By the way, if you were wondering, yes, that listener was able to get his parents out. 00:27:53.100 |
They went to the United States and they were safely there. 00:27:55.180 |
Unfortunately, faced some other compounding difficulties, very serious medical conditions 00:28:01.260 |
But they were at least able to get out of Ukraine. 00:28:04.980 |
And I think the next aspect of that is when Ukraine imposed restrictions on who could 00:28:13.380 |
What happened is the Ukrainian government, once the invasion happened, they passed a 00:28:18.500 |
law or a policy that said that no male of fighting age was allowed to leave the country. 00:28:25.100 |
Basically no male from say 18 to 50 something was allowed to leave the country. 00:28:29.620 |
And then the neighboring countries enforced that. 00:28:33.620 |
So the Polish immigration authorities were not letting any males of fighting age into 00:28:42.300 |
You have to get out before you're conscripted. 00:28:44.620 |
Now conscription is something that we don't talk much about. 00:28:50.540 |
But conscription has been a... because in most places in the modern world military service 00:29:02.300 |
And in the places where military service is not on a volunteer basis, such as Singapore 00:29:08.580 |
and Switzerland, they're generally neutral in Brazil. 00:29:13.340 |
The risk of going to war is not very significant. 00:29:15.660 |
I guess the most significant exception would be Israel that puts forced military service 00:29:22.220 |
on all of its citizens and faces significant security threats on a daily basis. 00:29:30.980 |
But conscription has been something that's affected mankind throughout history. 00:29:34.460 |
Now again we get into this interesting moral dilemma here with regard to Ukraine. 00:29:40.140 |
I think Ukrainian military service and Ukrainian military defense is the most obviously morally 00:29:49.900 |
When I was younger... well the United States had a military draft in Vietnam. 00:29:55.900 |
When I was younger I was not drafted, but my father would have been drafted if he hadn't 00:30:04.620 |
And I grew up with a significant disdain for draft dodgers. 00:30:09.420 |
You've got this kind of more conservative right-wing sense that I absorbed politically 00:30:21.740 |
I remember in presidential elections it was a big thing about well George W. Bush, later 00:30:27.940 |
President George W. Bush, went and served in a safe place. 00:30:30.660 |
And I knew most of my friends, my dad, most of my parents' friends, they were people who 00:30:39.020 |
And after wrestling with it and after getting past the bellicose personality of a young 00:30:47.860 |
man, I came to the point and I said, "You know what? 00:30:51.180 |
A draft like this for a war like this, I wouldn't serve." 00:30:54.300 |
And there was a time in which I thought, "Well, if I were drafted I would be a conscientious 00:31:00.700 |
And I eventually came to the point, I said, "If the United States imposed a draft like 00:31:10.460 |
I came to the point where I realized, "Yeah, that was the better place to leave my country." 00:31:15.900 |
And then this brought the same thing for my children. 00:31:19.500 |
And it was one of the things that influenced my own internationalization. 00:31:22.260 |
Because I thought, "Would I want my children to be conscripted for an immoral, worthless 00:31:28.580 |
war that claims lives with no redeeming benefit whatsoever?" 00:31:33.220 |
I thought, "No, so I need to build a plan for them so that they're not conscripted." 00:31:37.420 |
And so I've thought a lot about conscription over the years. 00:31:40.420 |
And what's interesting about the Ukrainian situation is it's such a different scenario. 00:31:46.220 |
It's such a different scenario than something like the Vietnam War that I thought a lot 00:31:54.900 |
It's a scenario in which you say, "This is our home and we're being invaded. 00:31:59.580 |
And yes, you're going to be in the local militia. 00:32:02.080 |
You're going to be in the local militia and you're going to defend our home. 00:32:05.260 |
And if you don't, you're not a fellow compatriot. 00:32:09.260 |
And yet even so, I still have a rough time with it. 00:32:12.460 |
I still have a rough time of thinking, "They're going to conscript me? 00:32:19.540 |
Now, if it were my hometown, my country invaded, I would probably be very persuaded by that 00:32:28.340 |
general sense of patriotism, that sense of defending those that I love, that house that 00:32:33.620 |
I've built, that land that I've cultivated, my neighbors. 00:32:38.540 |
It feels like that proper duty that you have to your neighbors to defend. 00:32:42.740 |
But from an outside perspective, not experiencing those emotions of patriotism and fealty to 00:32:51.640 |
my neighbors, you look at it from the outside and it's an astonishing thing. 00:32:56.420 |
You say, "You're going to force me into the army?" 00:32:59.700 |
And what we often forget is that in the modern world, conscription has been a standard part. 00:33:05.740 |
I've been reading a story with my children, and it's set back in the 1700s. 00:33:13.540 |
And in the plot line, it's accepted as a normal feature that you had press gangs. 00:33:19.940 |
Press gangs were literally groups of soldiers that would go along—usually it was soldiers, 00:33:25.540 |
it wasn't always, sometimes it was private ships. 00:33:28.360 |
But they would go along in a coastal town and they needed people on their ships. 00:33:34.980 |
And so they would go out, they would find young men, boys, who seemed like they could 00:33:39.500 |
serve and they would literally kidnap them and put them on the ship and force them to 00:33:45.000 |
And so military conscription is a form of kidnapping. 00:33:48.700 |
I understand that it's a form of kidnapping that might be morally justified, as you can 00:33:52.420 |
see in Ukraine, in this situation where you're defending your most literal neighbors. 00:34:02.100 |
It might be morally justified in that sense, but most of the time it's not. 00:34:07.880 |
It's simply a form of kidnapping that the state enacts, and it's something that I don't 00:34:15.100 |
And so what's interesting is when you watched the bar come down, when you watched the boom 00:34:20.780 |
get lowered, you saw how you needed to be out early. 00:34:26.780 |
Any Ukrainian who was abroad, be it a 20-year-old male of fighting age, has the choice. 00:34:34.220 |
He can go back to Ukraine and he can fight for his neighbors, which would be an honorable 00:34:39.700 |
thing for him to do if that was what he believed he should do, or he can choose not to. 00:34:46.760 |
But there are a whole lot of 20-year-old men in Ukraine who no longer have that choice, 00:34:56.940 |
And what's, to me, I think the most frustrating thing about it, and I'm trying to articulate 00:35:02.580 |
at the risk of being overly verbose, I'm trying to articulate some of the emotions and the 00:35:10.060 |
But I'm also trying to bring it back to your and my agency as human beings. 00:35:14.720 |
What bothers me the most about the concept of conscription is how needlessly bloody and 00:35:26.660 |
I shared a picture on my Twitter feed, which by the way, I've been doing a lot on Twitter. 00:35:31.360 |
So go to twitter.com/joshuasheets, make sure that you follow me on Twitter, I try to keep 00:35:37.780 |
But I've been sharing, I shared a picture on Twitter feed of some young, maybe 18, 19-year-old 00:35:44.720 |
And it's the most disheartening picture you ever see. 00:35:48.240 |
It's kind of the class, it will become a classic picture of what you see at war, young, doe-faced 00:35:56.840 |
But in this situation, they've got no uniforms, just four guys hanging out, and they got a 00:36:04.580 |
And the problem is that these are the kinds of soldiers who are completely decimated in 00:36:12.700 |
And it's just a need, it winds up being a needless loss of life. 00:36:16.800 |
It winds up being something where they get destroyed by trained, experienced troops. 00:36:22.680 |
And a country or an army will make up in numbers what they lack in training. 00:36:28.260 |
But I still don't see how that's of any comfort or any significant comfort to the families 00:36:33.280 |
and the loved ones of those who wind up dying. 00:36:36.160 |
And it's my contention that if I'm going to go to war, I'm going to go to war in an intelligent 00:36:43.920 |
I don't want to be just part of the meat grinder. 00:36:47.480 |
So I want to go to war in a trained way, or I want to go to war on my own terms. 00:36:52.160 |
I always saw myself, I remember when I was a boy I read the biography of, I think his 00:36:56.880 |
name was Carlos Hatcock, it was something like, I've forgotten the exact name, but he 00:37:00.480 |
was a Marine sniper in Vietnam and I think he had something like 73 confirmed kills, 00:37:09.760 |
And again, this is going back 20 years, more than 20 to 25 years in my memory. 00:37:15.160 |
So if I got that data wrong, please don't hold me to it. 00:37:22.040 |
But I guess for me, because I read his biography when I was a boy, I was like, I would be the 00:37:29.040 |
I would be the guy who's committing guerrilla attacks from afar. 00:37:34.200 |
And that background I think just makes me so distasteful to the idea of being used as 00:37:44.080 |
Just put them out there and cannon fodder was basically, let's just stuff anything we 00:37:48.960 |
can into the cannon, any kind of shrapnel, glass, things, et cetera, and put it in there 00:37:54.880 |
And then all the troops are coming across that you see the pictures of the Civil War 00:38:00.640 |
battlefields, line them all up up front and let's just blow into them. 00:38:04.000 |
It doesn't make any sense to me, but that's what you wind up with in the modern era. 00:38:07.520 |
Now those guys who survive, who are very quick-witted and very smart, they will quickly develop 00:38:12.960 |
new tactics, new teams, and they'll develop into battle-hardened veterans who will be 00:38:17.560 |
very effective within a period of weeks or months. 00:38:21.920 |
But as I think about sending my sons into that, even with the most intense sense of 00:38:30.360 |
patriotism and loyalty to defend my neighbors, I don't want my boys being sent untrained 00:38:40.240 |
I don't want to have empty places at my dining table and say, "What was it worth? 00:38:51.600 |
You got to get out before you're conscripted. 00:38:54.400 |
You got to get out before you're kidnapped by your country. 00:38:59.160 |
If you choose to sign up and serve, and you choose to do that, that's an appropriate choice. 00:39:05.520 |
And I think, again, hopefully I'm emphasizing this enough, a very understandable, morally 00:39:11.280 |
correct choice, and a very noble and laudable choice to stand up and defend your neighbors. 00:39:20.440 |
But you got to make sure that's actually your choice, and it's actually your choice coming 00:39:25.200 |
from a place of strength, not coming from a place of blinded emotionalism, getting caught 00:39:30.560 |
up in the sense of, "Yeah, it's us versus them," and going out in a fit of emotion, 00:39:35.280 |
and not getting caught up and being forced into it. 00:39:38.300 |
Make sure it's your choice and you're coming from a place of strength. 00:39:41.880 |
Next lesson, when you leave, you may literally be leaving with the clothes on your back. 00:39:48.640 |
I've watched a number of videos of refugees fleeing Ukraine. 00:39:54.200 |
And it's so amazing in the modern world with YouTubers and et cetera. 00:40:00.240 |
And I watched them fleeing, and you may literally be leaving with the clothes on your back. 00:40:04.680 |
And you may be walking away from everything you've built, the business you've built, the 00:40:08.320 |
houses you've bought, the money you've saved, everything. 00:40:12.040 |
And you'll be grateful to get out with the clothes on your back. 00:40:15.400 |
And we think often, "Oh, well, I'll just have all my money." 00:40:20.400 |
And at the end of the day, quite literally when you leave, the money that you have is 00:40:24.760 |
the money that you have in your possession, and that's it. 00:40:30.200 |
We'll talk about this more in the next session. 00:40:31.600 |
We'll talk about Russia, where we'll talk more about the financialization. 00:40:35.860 |
Because the Russians in Russia are not being bombed right now, but they're facing more 00:40:42.440 |
But you see people fleeing from Ukraine, and the money that you have is the money that 00:40:47.520 |
And you might be out with just the clothes on your back. 00:40:53.440 |
And again, that's where internationalescapeplan.com is going to come in. 00:41:03.560 |
You must have a plan to get your loved ones and your pets out. 00:41:12.400 |
One of the things that is so amazing to see is the outpouring of support for the Ukrainian 00:41:18.960 |
It just thrills your heart to see the pictures of the Germans at the train station holding 00:41:24.640 |
It brings tears to my eyes just thinking about it. 00:41:27.320 |
You see the picture of a guy holding a sign and says, "I can take a mother and two children. 00:41:35.280 |
And it's just such an amazing feeling to see the outpouring of love and care for those 00:41:44.560 |
neighboring countries opening their borders, minimal documentation requirements, giving 00:41:49.360 |
officially refugee status, allowing Ukrainians to stay in the European Union, giving work 00:41:55.560 |
Poland has absorbed I think something like 2 million refugees and they're giving work 00:42:14.440 |
In the short term, you can open up your house and welcome somebody who would otherwise be 00:42:23.120 |
But I think most of us understand how difficult it can be to have those same house guests 00:42:29.720 |
day after day, week after week, month after month. 00:42:32.720 |
Similarly, in the short term, a country can pass a law saying that refugees from Ukraine 00:42:41.600 |
– I'm thinking of Poland here – refugees from Ukraine can work. 00:42:45.600 |
But I want you to imagine a situation months from now as this conflict drags on and as 00:42:51.240 |
this situation continues to be bad when Poland is still filled with Ukrainian refugees and 00:42:58.040 |
the Polish citizenry that's out of work and stretched and struggling will have a much 00:43:06.200 |
harder time maintaining that same sense of magnanimity and kindness towards the Ukrainian 00:43:14.960 |
The realities of life have a way of blunting the acute emotions of a moment. 00:43:23.760 |
And so you need to have a plan and you need a place to go where you have things established. 00:43:30.920 |
Being a refugee is brutal and even in this very generous outpouring of support, all of 00:43:39.920 |
the refugees who are relying on that outpouring of support are going to find their lives continually 00:43:48.760 |
And so this is where I think it's so important – again, this is why I've been pouring 00:43:54.440 |
myself into finishing the course at internationalskateplan.com. 00:44:08.480 |
As long as your diversification involves geographic diversification and international diversification. 00:44:19.200 |
We are so blinded frequently by our situation, by our own personal experience, and we think 00:44:28.040 |
"Oh, everything is great, but I'm trying not to go into the Russia stuff." 00:44:32.400 |
But the Russian stock market has been obliterated, literally destroyed, did nothing. 00:44:40.000 |
So you could say "I have the most diversified strategy being in Russia, that I own dozens 00:44:45.000 |
and dozens and dozens of different companies." 00:44:47.560 |
But if all of your investments were in the Russian stock market, then you got destroyed. 00:44:59.640 |
If all of your stuff was in one place, meaning your physical possessions, if all your physical 00:45:05.760 |
possessions were in one place, you may have been very well prepped in your apartment, 00:45:10.760 |
and you've got some food and water and you've got some plastic bags and chemical 00:45:15.820 |
treatments so that when your toilet stops working you can dispose of your family's 00:45:22.060 |
But if your apartment building is one that's leveled in a cluster bomb attack, you're 00:45:27.400 |
Even if you get out with your life because you were in a bomb shelter, you're done. 00:45:30.400 |
So apply the concept of diversification to every area. 00:45:34.660 |
Make sure that your physical supplies are not just in one place. 00:45:43.740 |
One of the things that you have seen so much of over the last days is picture after picture, 00:45:48.880 |
video after video of Ukrainians and Russians standing in front of ATM machines and ATM 00:45:57.160 |
All of the time that you spend standing in front of an ATM waiting in a line is time 00:46:04.600 |
that is being wasted in your attempt to cross borders. 00:46:09.680 |
So if all of your money is not in your country, if all of your assets are not in the country, 00:46:13.760 |
if all of your investments are not in one country, you have other options all around 00:46:23.080 |
If you were physically present in France right now, if you have assets in the American stock 00:46:30.960 |
But if everything is in Ukraine, it's pretty well destroyed. 00:46:35.760 |
Or at least even if it winds up maintaining some semblance of order, even if it's not 00:46:41.460 |
as destroyed as the Russian markets, you're still not going to be growing. 00:46:51.600 |
But any Ukrainian that had money in the American stock market, yeah, there may be a decline, 00:46:55.720 |
but it's nothing catastrophic like you are experiencing right now in Ukraine. 00:47:07.920 |
When things go sideways, the money that you have is the money that you have. 00:47:11.500 |
You don't want to be standing in that ATM line if you can avoid it. 00:47:17.040 |
All your paper money, all your banking institutions in Ukraine, all of that stuff, they're going 00:47:21.960 |
to work, they're going to do their very best to provide the most basic of services. 00:47:26.720 |
But in terms of any kind of reasonable service, reasonable safety, reasonable security, it's 00:47:39.760 |
Remember, it's totally fine for you to make different choices than I would. 00:47:44.080 |
I was touched, there was that MMA fighter from Arkansas who had the viral video clip 00:47:51.320 |
over the last week talking about the Ukrainian situation. 00:47:54.400 |
He said, "If this war comes to Arkansas, I will die for this piece of ground in Arkansas." 00:47:59.400 |
If that's you and you will die for this piece of ground, be it in Arkansas or in Kiev, fine, 00:48:16.320 |
As I stated at the very opening of this show, one of the worst things that you can do is 00:48:22.120 |
experience suffering yourself and not learn a lesson from it. 00:48:30.960 |
One of the worst things you can do is observe others experiencing suffering and not at the 00:48:48.000 |
But at the very least, learn from the lessons of others because it is your duty to yourself, 00:48:57.960 |
It is your duty to be strong and to be prepared. 00:49:09.320 |
Now, we'll make this point quite convincingly in the next episode when we talk about Russia. 00:49:14.760 |
But one of the things that I've struggled with to get people to understand when I teach 00:49:21.240 |
about these things is simply how it does happen here. 00:49:28.880 |
It doesn't just happen to people on the other side of the world. 00:49:38.960 |
Russia, Ukraine, these are sophisticated, very sophisticated, very cultured, very historic 00:49:47.760 |
civilizations with knowledgeable, connected, intelligent people. 00:49:57.720 |
Remember, as we go, go to bitcoinprivacycourse.com. 00:50:01.960 |
Sign up to figure out if you had $5,000 of Bitcoin abroad, it solves a lot of problems. 00:50:11.760 |
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