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2022-03-10_1_of_3-Financial_Lessons_Learned_from_Ukraine


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00:00:30.780 | Today on Radical Personal Finance, part one of a three-part series.
00:00:33.620 | Today, financial lessons learned from Ukraine.
00:00:37.820 | [MUSIC]
00:00:53.980 | Welcome to Radical Personal Finance, a show dedicated to providing you with the knowledge,
00:00:57.260 | skills, insight and encouragement you need to live a rich and meaningful life now, while
00:01:01.660 | building a plan for financial freedom in 10 years or less.
00:01:04.660 | My name is Josh Raschitz, and today we're going to talk about financial lessons learned
00:01:08.900 | from Ukraine.
00:01:09.900 | Our TV screens, our mobile screens have been filled with lessons, and I want to categorize
00:01:16.260 | them and archive them and get them into your and my head, so at least we can gain some
00:01:21.540 | good from the suffering of our fellow humans.
00:01:24.260 | One of the most important things about when bad things happen is learning from them, because
00:01:31.940 | so frequently things happen and they're awful, but at least if you can gain some lessons
00:01:36.980 | from your own suffering and from the suffering of others, then we can minimize human suffering
00:01:42.260 | in the future.
00:01:43.260 | So let's do that today by talking about Ukraine.
00:01:46.220 | Before we begin, though, today's podcast is brought to you by BitcoinPrivacyCourse.com.
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00:01:59.660 | basically seeks to answer this question, the question of the dream of Bitcoin.
00:02:04.860 | Listen, if you were cut off from your money, if banks were collapsed, if everything stopped
00:02:09.660 | and you were totally cut off, could you still gain access to spending power?
00:02:14.820 | If you had to flee your country because of war and run away with nothing but the clothes
00:02:19.820 | on your back, could you go into a foreign country, sit down at a computer and with nothing
00:02:25.940 | more than a simple passphrase stored in your head, access your life savings?
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00:03:23.460 | if you're signed up by then to participate in the live Q&A and make sure that all of
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00:03:29.740 | Go to BitcoinPrivacyCourse.com.
00:03:35.380 | We go to Ukraine.
00:03:37.060 | In this series, we're going to have part one is financial lessons from Ukraine, part two
00:03:41.780 | is going to be lessons from Russia, part three is going to be lessons in the United States.
00:03:47.700 | What you'll observe as we build is you'll observe the increasing financialization of
00:03:54.640 | my advice.
00:03:55.640 | I'm titling this "Financial Lessons from Ukraine."
00:03:58.860 | These are financial lessons, but what you'll notice as I go through these is how non-financial
00:04:04.560 | markety they are.
00:04:06.680 | We're not going to talk about stocks, bonds, even insurance policies because what you see
00:04:11.160 | is there are things that can happen that cause all of the financial stuff to basically disappear
00:04:17.280 | in importance.
00:04:18.280 | Let's begin with lesson one.
00:04:20.520 | When your life is threatened, your physical security is threatened, everything else disappears
00:04:25.800 | in importance.
00:04:26.800 | Here, I always think of the classic Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
00:04:31.420 | At the bottom of the pyramid, those fundamental foundational needs, we have physical needs,
00:04:36.360 | the needs of your body.
00:04:37.360 | Then we have safety needs.
00:04:40.440 | Then we build up to love and belonging and esteem and self-actualization.
00:04:45.520 | What happens is most of us spend most of our time thinking about the fact that we want
00:04:50.520 | to self-actualize.
00:04:52.200 | How can I express myself more fully in my career?
00:04:55.560 | This particular job doesn't bring me pleasure.
00:04:58.240 | How can I become financially independent so I can experience what it truly means to be
00:05:02.600 | an independent and self-directed person?
00:05:05.240 | Hey, that's important.
00:05:06.360 | I'm all for it.
00:05:07.880 | But what happens is we take for granted the fact that all of our basic needs are met by
00:05:14.160 | a functional society.
00:05:17.280 | And because of our recent experience, for most of us, we think that a functional society
00:05:23.200 | is the normal way that life is experienced.
00:05:26.760 | That's actually not really true.
00:05:29.560 | Throughout virtually all of human history, uncertainty about those basic level needs
00:05:34.520 | has been the key feature of life.
00:05:39.120 | Uncertainty about what am I going to eat tomorrow or today?
00:05:44.040 | Will I be cold tonight?
00:05:46.520 | Will my neighbor come and try to steal from me?
00:05:49.520 | Will a neighboring village try to invade our village and take our stuff and steal our women
00:05:54.720 | and kill us all?
00:05:56.880 | That's the normal feature of life.
00:06:00.040 | That's the normal way that life has been experienced by virtually all of our fellow humans through
00:06:05.160 | virtually all of human civilization, or I should say human existence.
00:06:11.360 | So civilization is actually a gift.
00:06:14.360 | It's an accomplishment.
00:06:16.400 | And we need to stop and ask ourselves, how did that happen?
00:06:19.680 | How did we build civilization?
00:06:21.680 | How did we build a civilized world where so many of us give virtually no thought to what
00:06:27.840 | we're going to eat, what we're going to drink, how we're going to afford it, etc.?
00:06:31.400 | How does that happen?
00:06:33.180 | Because that's the aberration in human history.
00:06:36.200 | Now it's my hope and prayer that in the fullness of time it will not be the aberration, that
00:06:39.680 | will become the norm.
00:06:40.680 | But we're in a transition point.
00:06:42.480 | We're in a transition point in human history.
00:06:46.400 | And at this time it's important that we stop and recognize that when your life is threatened,
00:06:52.320 | everything else disappears in importance.
00:06:55.740 | So we need to actually think carefully about security, both the security of our bodies,
00:07:02.560 | not to be impaled from above by a bomb or hit by a piece of shrapnel or shot by some
00:07:09.160 | dude with a gun, and then also the greater extension of that, our security of our basic
00:07:15.200 | needs.
00:07:16.200 | We need to make plans for those things.
00:07:18.560 | This is, I think, one of the interesting differentiating factors of radical personal finance, is that
00:07:24.360 | I always saw as a financial planner, professional financial planner, I always saw the usefulness
00:07:29.260 | of modern financial instruments in most circumstances.
00:07:33.440 | But I always felt that fundamentally at its core, financial planning should encompass
00:07:38.640 | these basic needs.
00:07:41.580 | And because of the specialization of labor and the economies that most of us live in,
00:07:47.300 | we don't think much about those things.
00:07:48.820 | And yet they're fundamentally part of it.
00:07:51.500 | When we think financial planning, we fundamentally at its core, always consider the things that
00:07:55.980 | the financial industry can sell a product to.
00:07:57.860 | That's what we're trained and conditioned to believe is the most important.
00:08:01.780 | We're fundamentally trained and conditioned to believe that financial planning means having
00:08:05.820 | a budget, life insurance, making sure we put money in our retirement account, et cetera.
00:08:10.980 | And that's good.
00:08:11.980 | That's well and good.
00:08:12.980 | We're never going to get, nor should financial planners be necessarily comprehensive.
00:08:16.860 | But for you and me, I want us to think about financial planning beyond that.
00:08:20.580 | I always think about the fact that my physical health is what allows me to make money.
00:08:25.660 | And yes, I want to have disability insurance, but I also want to focus on my physical health.
00:08:30.020 | Because while I appreciate the fact, the miracle of the modern financial world that I can buy
00:08:34.180 | a life insurance policy for a few shekels per month, and then wind up that in the fullness
00:08:39.540 | of time, my family is cared for if I'm dead, I have a greater interest in actually not
00:08:44.460 | being dead in the first place.
00:08:46.500 | And so my financial planning needs to include taking care of my physical health.
00:08:52.040 | My financial planning needs to take care, make sure that it includes taking care of
00:08:55.700 | my physical security.
00:08:57.860 | And what happens is when you come back to an acute circumstance, that it becomes obvious.
00:09:03.380 | In the same way that when a guy gets diagnosed with cancer, he'll spend every dollar of his
00:09:10.580 | savings to try to get free of cancer.
00:09:13.420 | Or a guy has a heart attack, he'll quickly recognize, "Man, I got to get this cared for."
00:09:17.740 | And all of a sudden, the $200 or the $1,000 a month nutrition coach and personal trainer,
00:09:24.620 | et cetera, all of a sudden now it feels like a steal of a deal.
00:09:28.140 | Whereas before it felt like, "Oh, I got to be frugal.
00:09:29.820 | I don't want to spend the money on that."
00:09:31.500 | Well, in the same way that that applies in more ordinary circumstances, things like war
00:09:36.940 | come in, and that lesson is magnified times 10.
00:09:41.020 | When your life is threatened, everything else disappears in importance.
00:09:45.140 | So always make sure that your financial planning doesn't ignore those basic things.
00:09:53.140 | Financial planning in an intensely financialized manner with financial instruments is good,
00:10:02.500 | but it needs to be built on a strong foundation.
00:10:06.020 | And again, you'll hear that emphasis expanded.
00:10:09.140 | Ukraine is the tip of the spear right now, quite literally.
00:10:12.780 | And our friends in Ukraine are facing a complete obliteration of all the normal stuff.
00:10:21.660 | And you see how in these most desperate of circumstances, it goes back to those fundamentals.
00:10:29.780 | Number two, war is hell.
00:10:32.940 | War is absolute hell.
00:10:34.940 | And I know that sounds like, "Obviously," but I mean it.
00:10:37.500 | Like war is awful.
00:10:39.500 | I think it's important that we recognize this.
00:10:41.460 | It's important that we teach our children this.
00:10:43.420 | I remember when I was a young boy, you think about war, you hear about war, and it sounds
00:10:48.740 | exciting I guess to boys.
00:10:51.620 | That's why they let young boys, teenagers, 18-year-old, 20-year-old men sign up and fight
00:10:59.860 | They're the ones who fight most wars.
00:11:01.500 | Sounds exciting.
00:11:02.540 | The reality of war is hell.
00:11:04.300 | It is absolute hell.
00:11:05.780 | And to expand that, you cannot...
00:11:09.900 | Let me say it in this order.
00:11:11.220 | First, you definitely cannot thrive in war.
00:11:15.940 | And you can't survive in war.
00:11:19.140 | War is not really survivable.
00:11:20.780 | Now I understand you say, "Yes, well if you make it through, you make it through, yeah,
00:11:24.540 | and you physically survive."
00:11:26.380 | But what happens is even that, even the very best case, right?
00:11:30.260 | You're living in a city where it is under war, under siege from an invading army.
00:11:35.580 | In the very best case, this is going to be a nightmare that will haunt you the rest of
00:11:41.460 | your life.
00:11:42.820 | Even if you can physically maintain your breath and your beating heart, physically alive,
00:11:50.560 | this is a nightmare that will haunt you the rest of your life.
00:11:53.940 | You'll have trouble sleeping because you worry about, "Is a bomb going to come in and obliterate
00:11:58.820 | my house?"
00:12:00.460 | You have trouble trusting.
00:12:01.700 | You have trouble thinking long-term.
00:12:03.340 | When you go through war and you experience the trauma of wondering if today my life ends,
00:12:10.060 | when you experience the trauma of killing somebody, even if you're fully justified in
00:12:14.620 | the defense of your home, this destroys your life.
00:12:19.260 | And it takes your capacity as a human being, which was very high, and it brings it down
00:12:24.460 | to something significantly less than what it was.
00:12:29.500 | War is not really survivable.
00:12:32.420 | You certainly are not going to thrive.
00:12:38.180 | Thriving means that you're going to make progress on long-term goals.
00:12:41.260 | But what you see when war comes is that immediately everything shortens up to today, to literally
00:12:49.260 | today.
00:12:50.300 | You're not thinking about, "What am I going to do when I retire?"
00:12:52.540 | You're not thinking about, "What are we going to do for vacation next year?"
00:12:55.340 | You're not thinking about, "How can I expand my business and improve my profits over the
00:12:58.900 | next quarter?"
00:12:59.900 | You're wondering, "Can I survive today?"
00:13:03.460 | And what happens is this takes an intense toll on a man.
00:13:08.180 | This hurts you.
00:13:10.420 | You start to make very short-term decisions.
00:13:13.980 | You start to think about today because it's all you have.
00:13:17.820 | We always see this in the classics of war movies.
00:13:21.540 | "Okay, well, I quit smoking, but give me the pack of cigarettes because I need that release
00:13:27.700 | today."
00:13:29.100 | Very passionate love affairs, stupid decisions that people make because life is reduced to
00:13:33.980 | the here, to the now.
00:13:36.940 | This is really bad for your long-term success because one of the success markers for those
00:13:41.380 | who build empires and legacies is always the ability to think long-term.
00:13:47.540 | People who go through war get scarred and they lose a significant part of their long-term
00:13:53.500 | thinking and planning capacity.
00:13:56.940 | If at all possible, always avoid war.
00:14:04.140 | You cannot thrive and you cannot really even survive in war.
00:14:11.420 | Now the number three lesson is this, prepping works, sort of.
00:14:18.420 | And here I mean the traditional sense of prepping.
00:14:22.780 | When you look at prepping, just like financial planning has its blinders, I love the world
00:14:29.180 | of preparedness, prepping, survivalism, but it also has its blinders.
00:14:34.980 | But there are some senses in which prepping in the traditional sense works.
00:14:40.660 | Here's what has worked thus far.
00:14:44.780 | Having a plan to get out from where you are, and especially to get out of the cities to
00:14:50.140 | a safer, more rural destination, that has been unbelievably important.
00:14:56.100 | I think you see here that while we usually lean on cities as a fundamental part of our
00:15:06.140 | careers, our family life, et cetera, right?
00:15:08.500 | You see the growth all over the world of mega cities and everyone moving from the country
00:15:12.580 | to the city.
00:15:13.760 | You see also how cities are basically unsurvivable in difficult times.
00:15:18.340 | And again, war is a perfect example.
00:15:21.140 | Well, number one, they're targeted.
00:15:23.140 | You see, what is the Russian army targeting?
00:15:25.580 | They're targeting the cities.
00:15:27.080 | They're targeting the places where the people are, where the infrastructure is.
00:15:31.420 | And they're obliterating it.
00:15:32.860 | You get a much more bang for your buck in terms of the effectiveness of your munitions
00:15:37.900 | and your gunpowder if you target them to cities where they can destroy massive amounts of
00:15:42.540 | infrastructure versus out in the country.
00:15:46.380 | And in addition to that, that's where the people are.
00:15:48.820 | If you had a little country retreat in Ukraine and you could get out of the city, you're
00:15:55.420 | in a much better situation today.
00:15:57.700 | Your family, if you could get your family out, even if you need to come back and fight
00:16:00.740 | in the city because that's where the soldiers are, if you can get your family out to the
00:16:05.220 | city, they're in a much better situation.
00:16:08.820 | In addition, modern cities are just not survivable if the infrastructure goes down.
00:16:12.900 | And what do invading armies tackle?
00:16:17.040 | Either on a physical attack or a cyber attack, they tackle infrastructure.
00:16:20.780 | If you have a flat on the 10th floor of an apartment in downtown Kiev and your electricity
00:16:26.940 | goes out and your municipal water supply goes out, your apartment quickly becomes a health
00:16:32.180 | nightmare.
00:16:33.220 | You may be able to stay there for a few days, but you're not going to make it being there
00:16:37.380 | week after week.
00:16:39.620 | Your apartment will become a disease infested hell hole.
00:16:44.760 | And so you need to have a plan.
00:16:46.620 | If you live in a city, you need to have a plan to get out of the city.
00:16:49.720 | And so that should be a fundamental part of your preparations.
00:16:55.820 | At the very least, think about where you could go and how you could get there.
00:16:59.860 | Maybe you have a country cousin you could go and see, a relative.
00:17:03.700 | Maybe you have a little piece of land that you put a camper on.
00:17:06.620 | Maybe you have a little vacation house out by the lake.
00:17:08.780 | But what you see is that almost any vacation house, lake house, little rural retreat is
00:17:14.260 | a better place to be than in a city.
00:17:17.140 | What about a stockpiling of supplies?
00:17:19.680 | Having a plan to have supplies stockpiled is extremely important.
00:17:24.740 | And you see the impact of it right now in the Ukrainian situation.
00:17:29.980 | Now the amazing thing is to see that it seems that many of the Ukrainian systems are still
00:17:34.900 | working.
00:17:35.900 | Stores still have food.
00:17:37.100 | I've seen interesting videos of people going around showing the shelves in the supermarket
00:17:42.460 | and you hear shells going off and being dropped outside and yet you see that hey, the supermarket
00:17:46.660 | still has provisions.
00:17:49.300 | It's wonderful.
00:17:50.340 | But I think you see that the stockpiling of provisions is a really, really important deal.
00:17:56.660 | Making sure that you have supplies of food, supplies of medicine, medical equipment is
00:18:01.140 | a big, big deal.
00:18:02.820 | So preparedness has worked and is working.
00:18:06.100 | And those who are well prepared in Ukraine are going to be able to protect those that
00:18:12.380 | are closest to them.
00:18:13.380 | They're going to be able to help their fellow citizens to rebuild, et cetera.
00:18:19.620 | I think I even extend this to the military aspects.
00:18:25.220 | I've always enjoyed the gun thing.
00:18:28.780 | I enjoy shooting.
00:18:29.780 | I always have.
00:18:30.860 | But I've often wondered, is it really worth it to prep for military invasion?
00:18:37.540 | And it just seems so far-fetched to me that it's just not been that big of a factor.
00:18:43.700 | But when you watch in Ukraine, you watch them handing out AK-47s on the street to whoever
00:18:49.000 | will come, and you think about all the second-order effects of that, you all of a sudden realize,
00:18:53.860 | yeah, those martial preparations are really valuable.
00:18:58.260 | And so recognize that prepping works.
00:19:00.940 | But I think the bigger plan is next, number four.
00:19:05.260 | Having a plan to get out of the country entirely is still the best possible thing that you
00:19:09.420 | could do.
00:19:10.420 | In my course that I first started teaching a couple of years ago, which by the way, it's
00:19:15.060 | not been on the market for the last year, I'm revising it and splitting it out.
00:19:18.780 | But in that course called How to Survive and Thrive During the Coming Economic Crisis,
00:19:22.620 | what I did was I talked about basically the two aspects of how to survive and thrive during
00:19:28.060 | the coming economic crisis.
00:19:29.900 | Part number one is what I just talked about, what we call preparedness.
00:19:34.340 | And basically, preparedness involves stockpiling supplies, making preparations to do without
00:19:40.700 | systems of support, infrastructure.
00:19:42.700 | It's everything from having a couple of solar panels so that you can have some electric
00:19:46.660 | light in your house if the grid power goes down, having water, water purifier so that
00:19:51.700 | if the grid water goes down, you can have access to clean drinking water for your family
00:19:57.620 | and water for sanitation.
00:19:58.620 | It means having supplies.
00:20:01.040 | But then the second part of the course has all been about getting out, getting out of
00:20:04.900 | the disaster zone.
00:20:07.660 | I have for years, I've watched, you go on YouTube and you watch people do tours of their
00:20:12.100 | bug out bag.
00:20:13.100 | And you know what I almost never see in those bags?
00:20:16.220 | It's these things, passport and a credit card.
00:20:20.760 | To me, that's number one, passport and a credit card.
00:20:23.980 | Give me a passport and a credit card and I'm going to the airport and I'm out of here.
00:20:28.620 | Because the best way to do well in a crisis is not to be in that crisis place at all.
00:20:34.420 | I want you to think about those things that I articulated a little bit earlier about the
00:20:37.940 | damaging effects of war.
00:20:40.600 | Imagine how destructive it is to you, to your family, to watch, to be involved in war.
00:20:48.080 | Even if you personally escape with your life still technically going, the psychological
00:20:55.560 | destruction and trauma that you experience being in a war zone will haunt you for the
00:21:00.520 | rest of your life.
00:21:02.720 | Now imagine that you can avoid that.
00:21:05.200 | Imagine you can protect your children from that.
00:21:08.120 | Imagine you can get your family members out of that.
00:21:12.520 | It's infinitely better to be in that situation than to experience that trauma for the rest
00:21:19.040 | of your life.
00:21:21.080 | Now I think one of the things that's so fascinating about the Ukrainian situation is you see such
00:21:28.000 | a clear and obvious example of a war defense that is actually morally justified.
00:21:37.900 | The majority of the wars that my own nation has been involved in over the years have been
00:21:42.820 | very difficult to justify ethically and morally.
00:21:47.640 | But it is absolutely justified ethically and morally for you to defend your own home, for
00:21:54.560 | you to defend your own village from invading attackers who are coming in and destroying
00:22:00.480 | and stealing and killing and raping and looting.
00:22:05.540 | That is absolutely morally justifiable.
00:22:08.300 | So here's what's amazing to me to look at and to think about.
00:22:12.200 | Even in that situation, the most morally justified war effort, defense of your own village, your
00:22:18.980 | own home, is it better to be there and fight it out or is it better to not be there?
00:22:27.100 | And I think that although when I was 20 I would have said, "Fight it out," today at
00:22:34.580 | 20 plus a decade and a half, I look at it and I say, "I'm not doing it.
00:22:40.500 | I'm not doing it."
00:22:43.980 | Now on the one hand, that can be seen as a point of cowardice, right?
00:22:49.140 | And I've asked myself even thoroughly, searched, like, "Okay, Joshua, you're a coward.
00:22:52.140 | Are you scared to do it?"
00:22:53.980 | I just look at it and say, "What is it for?
00:22:57.660 | What is it worth?"
00:22:59.860 | Right?
00:23:01.980 | If my children grow up as orphans, why did they grow up as orphans?
00:23:06.740 | What was the benefit of that?
00:23:07.980 | If my wife is widowed because I'm killed, what is the benefit?
00:23:12.620 | If I had the choice to get out of the way.
00:23:16.160 | So why not start with what is better, which is to make sure that my children don't grow
00:23:20.380 | up fatherless, to make sure that my wife is not widowed, and make a plan to leave.
00:23:28.500 | Having a plan to get out of a region that's under severe effect is the very best plan
00:23:34.980 | possible.
00:23:35.980 | It's the best thing that you can possibly do.
00:23:39.420 | You must have a plan to get out, to escape your country.
00:23:44.020 | Coming up soon.
00:23:45.940 | Internationalescapeplan.com.
00:23:46.940 | That's the newest course.
00:23:47.940 | I've got it three quarters done.
00:23:49.900 | I'm filming, editing, etc.
00:23:52.340 | But it should be live here within a couple of days.
00:23:54.620 | But that's my newest course.
00:23:56.460 | Internationalescapeplan.com.
00:23:58.300 | You need an internationalescapeplan.com.
00:24:03.780 | You need an international escape plan.
00:24:05.860 | Marketing speak got all mixed up there.
00:24:07.500 | You need an international escape plan.
00:24:09.540 | You need a plan to get out of a war zone.
00:24:13.780 | You can always come back if you decide that's the right thing to do.
00:24:16.940 | But you see these heartbreaking videos of men putting their wives and children on a
00:24:24.980 | You've got to have a plan to get out.
00:24:28.340 | And that's what my newest course, which should be live in hopefully just a very couple of
00:24:32.700 | days, will teach you how to do.
00:24:35.820 | Simple, straightforward, actionable, totally doable.
00:24:38.500 | More about that coming soon.
00:24:40.620 | Having a plan to get out of your country entirely is the best possible thing you could do.
00:24:47.020 | Even if you yourself choose later to go and fight, that's fine.
00:24:53.860 | But you'll be in a much better situation doing that from a place of strength, knowing your
00:25:01.380 | family at least is safe and secure, minimizing the trauma that your family faces, knowing
00:25:08.340 | at least that your grandparents are perhaps out of danger.
00:25:13.340 | Then you can go in yourself and fight.
00:25:17.020 | But you've got to have a plan to get out.
00:25:19.060 | You see so clearly right now in the Ukrainian situation that every Ukrainian family that
00:25:25.300 | has gotten out of Ukraine is not facing those same horrific situations that those who are
00:25:32.260 | still in Ukraine are facing.
00:25:35.380 | And it's indescribably better for your long-term success, for the long-term thriving of your
00:25:41.260 | family, for the long-term strength of your community for you to be out.
00:25:48.560 | Lesson number five, pay attention to the warning signs.
00:25:52.740 | Leave early when leaving is easy.
00:25:57.080 | Leave early when leaving is easy.
00:26:01.620 | I had a regular listener of Radical Personal Finance know that in several previous Q&A
00:26:06.940 | episodes over the last couple of months, I've had a Ukrainian listener who called and inquired
00:26:13.860 | my opinion on whether or not his parents who were living in Ukraine should leave.
00:26:20.780 | And I gave the advice, "Yes, they should leave."
00:26:24.940 | I said, "If you are at all concerned that there is any reasonable threat that the Russian
00:26:30.820 | army next door might invade, you should leave.
00:26:34.340 | Because number one, it's better to be months too early than it is a day too late.
00:26:39.620 | And number two, as long as the cost of leaving is not too high," right?
00:26:44.660 | In his case, his parents were retired, not trying to run an active business, not trying
00:26:48.100 | to keep a job, had a place to go.
00:26:50.660 | They could go with their son, had the appropriate visas and such to be able to travel to the
00:26:54.820 | United States where their son was, be welcomed with family.
00:26:57.860 | I said, "Leave."
00:26:59.300 | The cost of leaving is very low compared to the potential cost of staying.
00:27:03.980 | But you have to get out early, so you have to pay attention to the warning signs.
00:27:08.260 | Now what's interesting is I gave that advice and then I went back and I started looking
00:27:11.940 | at the situation because I hadn't been following it closely.
00:27:13.980 | And I was like, "Wait a second, maybe they're not going to invade.
00:27:17.060 | Maybe it's overkill.
00:27:18.780 | They're probably not going to invade.
00:27:20.940 | And maybe this is just the United States intelligence pumping this up, or maybe it's the Western
00:27:25.860 | media."
00:27:26.860 | And I was like, "Yeah, the US intelligence agencies were right.
00:27:29.780 | Turns out that those that said that Russia was going to invade, they were right."
00:27:35.060 | And so the interesting thing was I wondered, right?
00:27:38.260 | And many analysts got it wrong.
00:27:39.420 | They said, "No, Russia's not going to invade.
00:27:40.820 | It's just there's no benefit for them."
00:27:42.900 | But still the simple practical philosophy of get out early, it worked.
00:27:46.140 | By the way, if you were wondering, yes, that listener was able to get his parents out.
00:27:51.020 | They did leave.
00:27:52.020 | They left early enough.
00:27:53.100 | They went to the United States and they were safely there.
00:27:55.180 | Unfortunately, faced some other compounding difficulties, very serious medical conditions
00:28:00.260 | emerged.
00:28:01.260 | But they were at least able to get out of Ukraine.
00:28:04.980 | And I think the next aspect of that is when Ukraine imposed restrictions on who could
00:28:12.060 | leave.
00:28:13.380 | What happened is the Ukrainian government, once the invasion happened, they passed a
00:28:18.500 | law or a policy that said that no male of fighting age was allowed to leave the country.
00:28:25.100 | Basically no male from say 18 to 50 something was allowed to leave the country.
00:28:29.620 | And then the neighboring countries enforced that.
00:28:33.620 | So the Polish immigration authorities were not letting any males of fighting age into
00:28:39.420 | the country.
00:28:40.900 | And I think this is a classic example.
00:28:42.300 | You have to get out before you're conscripted.
00:28:44.620 | Now conscription is something that we don't talk much about.
00:28:50.540 | But conscription has been a... because in most places in the modern world military service
00:28:59.020 | is on a volunteer basis.
00:29:02.300 | And in the places where military service is not on a volunteer basis, such as Singapore
00:29:08.580 | and Switzerland, they're generally neutral in Brazil.
00:29:13.340 | The risk of going to war is not very significant.
00:29:15.660 | I guess the most significant exception would be Israel that puts forced military service
00:29:22.220 | on all of its citizens and faces significant security threats on a daily basis.
00:29:30.980 | But conscription has been something that's affected mankind throughout history.
00:29:34.460 | Now again we get into this interesting moral dilemma here with regard to Ukraine.
00:29:40.140 | I think Ukrainian military service and Ukrainian military defense is the most obviously morally
00:29:45.780 | justified defense in a very long time.
00:29:49.900 | When I was younger... well the United States had a military draft in Vietnam.
00:29:55.900 | When I was younger I was not drafted, but my father would have been drafted if he hadn't
00:30:01.100 | been serving in the military.
00:30:03.140 | And I often wondered what would I do.
00:30:04.620 | And I grew up with a significant disdain for draft dodgers.
00:30:09.420 | You've got this kind of more conservative right-wing sense that I absorbed politically
00:30:16.140 | speaking when I was younger.
00:30:18.340 | And you get this distaste of draft dodgers.
00:30:21.740 | I remember in presidential elections it was a big thing about well George W. Bush, later
00:30:27.940 | President George W. Bush, went and served in a safe place.
00:30:30.660 | And I knew most of my friends, my dad, most of my parents' friends, they were people who
00:30:35.940 | were drafted during the Vietnam War.
00:30:39.020 | And after wrestling with it and after getting past the bellicose personality of a young
00:30:47.860 | man, I came to the point and I said, "You know what?
00:30:51.180 | A draft like this for a war like this, I wouldn't serve."
00:30:54.300 | And there was a time in which I thought, "Well, if I were drafted I would be a conscientious
00:30:59.700 | objector."
00:31:00.700 | And I eventually came to the point, I said, "If the United States imposed a draft like
00:31:04.220 | that for a war like Vietnam, I would flee.
00:31:07.740 | I would leave.
00:31:08.740 | I would be the one who went to Canada."
00:31:10.460 | I came to the point where I realized, "Yeah, that was the better place to leave my country."
00:31:15.900 | And then this brought the same thing for my children.
00:31:18.500 | I started thinking about my children.
00:31:19.500 | And it was one of the things that influenced my own internationalization.
00:31:22.260 | Because I thought, "Would I want my children to be conscripted for an immoral, worthless
00:31:28.580 | war that claims lives with no redeeming benefit whatsoever?"
00:31:33.220 | I thought, "No, so I need to build a plan for them so that they're not conscripted."
00:31:37.420 | And so I've thought a lot about conscription over the years.
00:31:40.420 | And what's interesting about the Ukrainian situation is it's such a different scenario.
00:31:46.220 | It's such a different scenario than something like the Vietnam War that I thought a lot
00:31:50.340 | about.
00:31:53.180 | It's a justified scenario.
00:31:54.900 | It's a scenario in which you say, "This is our home and we're being invaded.
00:31:59.580 | And yes, you're going to be in the local militia.
00:32:02.080 | You're going to be in the local militia and you're going to defend our home.
00:32:05.260 | And if you don't, you're not a fellow compatriot.
00:32:07.300 | You're not a fellow citizen."
00:32:09.260 | And yet even so, I still have a rough time with it.
00:32:12.460 | I still have a rough time of thinking, "They're going to conscript me?
00:32:16.140 | They're going to say I can't leave?
00:32:17.500 | They're going to say I have to fight?"
00:32:19.540 | Now, if it were my hometown, my country invaded, I would probably be very persuaded by that
00:32:28.340 | general sense of patriotism, that sense of defending those that I love, that house that
00:32:33.620 | I've built, that land that I've cultivated, my neighbors.
00:32:38.540 | It feels like that proper duty that you have to your neighbors to defend.
00:32:42.740 | But from an outside perspective, not experiencing those emotions of patriotism and fealty to
00:32:51.640 | my neighbors, you look at it from the outside and it's an astonishing thing.
00:32:56.420 | You say, "You're going to force me into the army?"
00:32:59.700 | And what we often forget is that in the modern world, conscription has been a standard part.
00:33:05.740 | I've been reading a story with my children, and it's set back in the 1700s.
00:33:13.540 | And in the plot line, it's accepted as a normal feature that you had press gangs.
00:33:19.940 | Press gangs were literally groups of soldiers that would go along—usually it was soldiers,
00:33:25.540 | it wasn't always, sometimes it was private ships.
00:33:28.360 | But they would go along in a coastal town and they needed people on their ships.
00:33:34.980 | And so they would go out, they would find young men, boys, who seemed like they could
00:33:39.500 | serve and they would literally kidnap them and put them on the ship and force them to
00:33:43.140 | serve on the ship.
00:33:45.000 | And so military conscription is a form of kidnapping.
00:33:48.700 | I understand that it's a form of kidnapping that might be morally justified, as you can
00:33:52.420 | see in Ukraine, in this situation where you're defending your most literal neighbors.
00:34:02.100 | It might be morally justified in that sense, but most of the time it's not.
00:34:07.880 | It's simply a form of kidnapping that the state enacts, and it's something that I don't
00:34:14.100 | want to be a part of.
00:34:15.100 | And so what's interesting is when you watched the bar come down, when you watched the boom
00:34:20.780 | get lowered, you saw how you needed to be out early.
00:34:26.780 | Any Ukrainian who was abroad, be it a 20-year-old male of fighting age, has the choice.
00:34:34.220 | He can go back to Ukraine and he can fight for his neighbors, which would be an honorable
00:34:39.700 | thing for him to do if that was what he believed he should do, or he can choose not to.
00:34:46.760 | But there are a whole lot of 20-year-old men in Ukraine who no longer have that choice,
00:34:54.000 | who didn't get out, who couldn't get out.
00:34:56.940 | And what's, to me, I think the most frustrating thing about it, and I'm trying to articulate
00:35:02.580 | at the risk of being overly verbose, I'm trying to articulate some of the emotions and the
00:35:07.480 | ethics involved in the situation.
00:35:10.060 | But I'm also trying to bring it back to your and my agency as human beings.
00:35:14.720 | What bothers me the most about the concept of conscription is how needlessly bloody and
00:35:23.740 | destructive that usually winds up being.
00:35:26.660 | I shared a picture on my Twitter feed, which by the way, I've been doing a lot on Twitter.
00:35:31.360 | So go to twitter.com/joshuasheets, make sure that you follow me on Twitter, I try to keep
00:35:35.900 | you informed on a lot of issues.
00:35:37.780 | But I've been sharing, I shared a picture on Twitter feed of some young, maybe 18, 19-year-old
00:35:43.220 | boys.
00:35:44.720 | And it's the most disheartening picture you ever see.
00:35:48.240 | It's kind of the class, it will become a classic picture of what you see at war, young, doe-faced
00:35:54.360 | boys getting ready to head off to war.
00:35:56.840 | But in this situation, they've got no uniforms, just four guys hanging out, and they got a
00:36:00.840 | gun and basically that's it.
00:36:04.580 | And the problem is that these are the kinds of soldiers who are completely decimated in
00:36:10.900 | a war effort.
00:36:12.700 | And it's just a need, it winds up being a needless loss of life.
00:36:16.800 | It winds up being something where they get destroyed by trained, experienced troops.
00:36:22.680 | And a country or an army will make up in numbers what they lack in training.
00:36:28.260 | But I still don't see how that's of any comfort or any significant comfort to the families
00:36:33.280 | and the loved ones of those who wind up dying.
00:36:36.160 | And it's my contention that if I'm going to go to war, I'm going to go to war in an intelligent
00:36:43.920 | I don't want to be just part of the meat grinder.
00:36:45.960 | I don't see any point in that.
00:36:47.480 | So I want to go to war in a trained way, or I want to go to war on my own terms.
00:36:52.160 | I always saw myself, I remember when I was a boy I read the biography of, I think his
00:36:56.880 | name was Carlos Hatcock, it was something like, I've forgotten the exact name, but he
00:37:00.480 | was a Marine sniper in Vietnam and I think he had something like 73 confirmed kills,
00:37:07.040 | one of the most decorated snipers.
00:37:09.760 | And again, this is going back 20 years, more than 20 to 25 years in my memory.
00:37:15.160 | So if I got that data wrong, please don't hold me to it.
00:37:18.640 | But it was a remarkable story.
00:37:22.040 | But I guess for me, because I read his biography when I was a boy, I was like, I would be the
00:37:28.040 | sniper.
00:37:29.040 | I would be the guy who's committing guerrilla attacks from afar.
00:37:34.200 | And that background I think just makes me so distasteful to the idea of being used as
00:37:41.160 | cannon fodder, right?
00:37:42.160 | That was the classic term, cannon fodder.
00:37:44.080 | Just put them out there and cannon fodder was basically, let's just stuff anything we
00:37:48.960 | can into the cannon, any kind of shrapnel, glass, things, et cetera, and put it in there
00:37:53.560 | and they'll take it.
00:37:54.880 | And then all the troops are coming across that you see the pictures of the Civil War
00:38:00.640 | battlefields, line them all up up front and let's just blow into them.
00:38:04.000 | It doesn't make any sense to me, but that's what you wind up with in the modern era.
00:38:07.520 | Now those guys who survive, who are very quick-witted and very smart, they will quickly develop
00:38:12.960 | new tactics, new teams, and they'll develop into battle-hardened veterans who will be
00:38:17.560 | very effective within a period of weeks or months.
00:38:21.920 | But as I think about sending my sons into that, even with the most intense sense of
00:38:30.360 | patriotism and loyalty to defend my neighbors, I don't want my boys being sent untrained
00:38:37.800 | into battle in that sense.
00:38:40.240 | I don't want to have empty places at my dining table and say, "What was it worth?
00:38:45.720 | What was it for?"
00:38:48.040 | I'm not interested in that.
00:38:49.760 | And so what's the solution?
00:38:51.600 | You got to get out before you're conscripted.
00:38:54.400 | You got to get out before you're kidnapped by your country.
00:38:59.160 | If you choose to sign up and serve, and you choose to do that, that's an appropriate choice.
00:39:05.520 | And I think, again, hopefully I'm emphasizing this enough, a very understandable, morally
00:39:11.280 | correct choice, and a very noble and laudable choice to stand up and defend your neighbors.
00:39:20.440 | But you got to make sure that's actually your choice, and it's actually your choice coming
00:39:25.200 | from a place of strength, not coming from a place of blinded emotionalism, getting caught
00:39:30.560 | up in the sense of, "Yeah, it's us versus them," and going out in a fit of emotion,
00:39:35.280 | and not getting caught up and being forced into it.
00:39:38.300 | Make sure it's your choice and you're coming from a place of strength.
00:39:41.880 | Next lesson, when you leave, you may literally be leaving with the clothes on your back.
00:39:47.280 | That's it.
00:39:48.640 | I've watched a number of videos of refugees fleeing Ukraine.
00:39:54.200 | And it's so amazing in the modern world with YouTubers and et cetera.
00:39:57.760 | It's just such...
00:39:58.760 | We live in an amazing world for access.
00:40:00.240 | And I watched them fleeing, and you may literally be leaving with the clothes on your back.
00:40:04.680 | And you may be walking away from everything you've built, the business you've built, the
00:40:08.320 | houses you've bought, the money you've saved, everything.
00:40:12.040 | And you'll be grateful to get out with the clothes on your back.
00:40:15.400 | And we think often, "Oh, well, I'll just have all my money."
00:40:19.320 | Everything will work.
00:40:20.400 | And at the end of the day, quite literally when you leave, the money that you have is
00:40:24.760 | the money that you have in your possession, and that's it.
00:40:28.160 | Or it's something that you have abroad.
00:40:30.200 | We'll talk about this more in the next session.
00:40:31.600 | We'll talk about Russia, where we'll talk more about the financialization.
00:40:35.860 | Because the Russians in Russia are not being bombed right now, but they're facing more
00:40:40.460 | financial problems.
00:40:42.440 | But you see people fleeing from Ukraine, and the money that you have is the money that
00:40:46.520 | you have.
00:40:47.520 | And you might be out with just the clothes on your back.
00:40:49.440 | So make a plan.
00:40:51.460 | Make a plan for that.
00:40:53.440 | And again, that's where internationalescapeplan.com is going to come in.
00:40:58.040 | Next lesson is...
00:40:59.440 | I guess I beat myself up.
00:41:01.960 | I'm going to beat myself to it.
00:41:03.560 | You must have a plan to get your loved ones and your pets out.
00:41:06.920 | You need a plan.
00:41:08.640 | You need a place to go that's far away.
00:41:12.400 | One of the things that is so amazing to see is the outpouring of support for the Ukrainian
00:41:17.960 | refugees.
00:41:18.960 | It just thrills your heart to see the pictures of the Germans at the train station holding
00:41:23.640 | up a sign.
00:41:24.640 | It brings tears to my eyes just thinking about it.
00:41:27.320 | You see the picture of a guy holding a sign and says, "I can take a mother and two children.
00:41:32.120 | We have beds for a mother and two children.
00:41:33.920 | Come to my home."
00:41:35.280 | And it's just such an amazing feeling to see the outpouring of love and care for those
00:41:44.560 | neighboring countries opening their borders, minimal documentation requirements, giving
00:41:49.360 | officially refugee status, allowing Ukrainians to stay in the European Union, giving work
00:41:54.560 | permission.
00:41:55.560 | Poland has absorbed I think something like 2 million refugees and they're giving work
00:42:02.560 | permission and opening up houses, etc.
00:42:07.400 | But here's what I think you're going to see.
00:42:11.520 | Massive tension is going to come.
00:42:14.440 | In the short term, you can open up your house and welcome somebody who would otherwise be
00:42:21.600 | homeless.
00:42:23.120 | But I think most of us understand how difficult it can be to have those same house guests
00:42:29.720 | day after day, week after week, month after month.
00:42:32.720 | Similarly, in the short term, a country can pass a law saying that refugees from Ukraine
00:42:41.600 | – I'm thinking of Poland here – refugees from Ukraine can work.
00:42:45.600 | But I want you to imagine a situation months from now as this conflict drags on and as
00:42:51.240 | this situation continues to be bad when Poland is still filled with Ukrainian refugees and
00:42:58.040 | the Polish citizenry that's out of work and stretched and struggling will have a much
00:43:06.200 | harder time maintaining that same sense of magnanimity and kindness towards the Ukrainian
00:43:13.240 | refugees.
00:43:14.960 | The realities of life have a way of blunting the acute emotions of a moment.
00:43:23.760 | And so you need to have a plan and you need a place to go where you have things established.
00:43:30.920 | Being a refugee is brutal and even in this very generous outpouring of support, all of
00:43:39.920 | the refugees who are relying on that outpouring of support are going to find their lives continually
00:43:46.160 | very very difficult.
00:43:48.760 | And so this is where I think it's so important – again, this is why I've been pouring
00:43:54.440 | myself into finishing the course at internationalskateplan.com.
00:44:01.520 | Next lesson – diversification works.
00:44:06.960 | Diversification works.
00:44:08.480 | As long as your diversification involves geographic diversification and international diversification.
00:44:19.200 | We are so blinded frequently by our situation, by our own personal experience, and we think
00:44:28.040 | "Oh, everything is great, but I'm trying not to go into the Russia stuff."
00:44:32.400 | But the Russian stock market has been obliterated, literally destroyed, did nothing.
00:44:40.000 | So you could say "I have the most diversified strategy being in Russia, that I own dozens
00:44:45.000 | and dozens and dozens of different companies."
00:44:47.560 | But if all of your investments were in the Russian stock market, then you got destroyed.
00:44:54.880 | Your life savings gone, everything gone.
00:44:58.080 | Ukraine, similarly.
00:44:59.640 | If all of your stuff was in one place, meaning your physical possessions, if all your physical
00:45:05.760 | possessions were in one place, you may have been very well prepped in your apartment,
00:45:10.760 | and you've got some food and water and you've got some plastic bags and chemical
00:45:15.820 | treatments so that when your toilet stops working you can dispose of your family's
00:45:20.120 | waste, etc.
00:45:22.060 | But if your apartment building is one that's leveled in a cluster bomb attack, you're
00:45:26.400 | done.
00:45:27.400 | Even if you get out with your life because you were in a bomb shelter, you're done.
00:45:30.400 | So apply the concept of diversification to every area.
00:45:34.660 | Make sure that your physical supplies are not just in one place.
00:45:37.820 | Make sure that you have other options.
00:45:40.440 | Same things with your money.
00:45:43.740 | One of the things that you have seen so much of over the last days is picture after picture,
00:45:48.880 | video after video of Ukrainians and Russians standing in front of ATM machines and ATM
00:45:55.920 | lines.
00:45:57.160 | All of the time that you spend standing in front of an ATM waiting in a line is time
00:46:04.600 | that is being wasted in your attempt to cross borders.
00:46:09.680 | So if all of your money is not in your country, if all of your assets are not in the country,
00:46:13.760 | if all of your investments are not in one country, you have other options all around
00:46:17.740 | the world.
00:46:18.740 | And this is the point about diversification.
00:46:23.080 | If you were physically present in France right now, if you have assets in the American stock
00:46:27.600 | exchange, you're not destroyed.
00:46:30.960 | But if everything is in Ukraine, it's pretty well destroyed.
00:46:35.760 | Or at least even if it winds up maintaining some semblance of order, even if it's not
00:46:41.460 | as destroyed as the Russian markets, you're still not going to be growing.
00:46:48.000 | You're lucky to walk away with something.
00:46:51.600 | But any Ukrainian that had money in the American stock market, yeah, there may be a decline,
00:46:55.720 | but it's nothing catastrophic like you are experiencing right now in Ukraine.
00:47:01.720 | Diversification works.
00:47:05.600 | So pay attention to this stuff.
00:47:07.920 | When things go sideways, the money that you have is the money that you have.
00:47:11.500 | You don't want to be standing in that ATM line if you can avoid it.
00:47:14.440 | Have a plan for getting money out.
00:47:17.040 | All your paper money, all your banking institutions in Ukraine, all of that stuff, they're going
00:47:21.960 | to work, they're going to do their very best to provide the most basic of services.
00:47:26.720 | But in terms of any kind of reasonable service, reasonable safety, reasonable security, it's
00:47:31.840 | destroyed for a very long time.
00:47:37.160 | Study Ukrainian situation.
00:47:38.760 | Think about what you would do.
00:47:39.760 | Remember, it's totally fine for you to make different choices than I would.
00:47:44.080 | I was touched, there was that MMA fighter from Arkansas who had the viral video clip
00:47:51.320 | over the last week talking about the Ukrainian situation.
00:47:54.400 | He said, "If this war comes to Arkansas, I will die for this piece of ground in Arkansas."
00:47:59.400 | If that's you and you will die for this piece of ground, be it in Arkansas or in Kiev, fine,
00:48:06.960 | fair, wonderful.
00:48:10.360 | Think it through, though.
00:48:11.760 | Learn from the lessons.
00:48:16.320 | As I stated at the very opening of this show, one of the worst things that you can do is
00:48:22.120 | experience suffering yourself and not learn a lesson from it.
00:48:30.960 | One of the worst things you can do is observe others experiencing suffering and not at the
00:48:36.240 | very least learn a lesson from it.
00:48:38.760 | If you have the ability to help, then help.
00:48:42.400 | If you have the ability to give, give.
00:48:44.240 | If you have the ability to support, support.
00:48:48.000 | But at the very least, learn from the lessons of others because it is your duty to yourself,
00:48:56.000 | to your family, to your neighbors.
00:48:57.960 | It is your duty to be strong and to be prepared.
00:49:03.920 | Don't think it can't happen here.
00:49:07.560 | Friend, it is happening here.
00:49:09.320 | Now, we'll make this point quite convincingly in the next episode when we talk about Russia.
00:49:14.760 | But one of the things that I've struggled with to get people to understand when I teach
00:49:21.240 | about these things is simply how it does happen here.
00:49:28.880 | It doesn't just happen to people on the other side of the world.
00:49:30.800 | It happens here.
00:49:32.760 | It doesn't just happen 100 years ago.
00:49:34.720 | It's happening now.
00:49:37.040 | So prepare accordingly.
00:49:38.960 | Russia, Ukraine, these are sophisticated, very sophisticated, very cultured, very historic
00:49:47.760 | civilizations with knowledgeable, connected, intelligent people.
00:49:55.800 | Take the lessons to heart for yourself.
00:49:57.720 | Remember, as we go, go to bitcoinprivacycourse.com.
00:50:01.960 | Sign up to figure out if you had $5,000 of Bitcoin abroad, it solves a lot of problems.
00:50:11.760 | But you had a few hundred thousand dollars of Bitcoin tucked away abroad, it solves all
00:50:15.200 | the problems.
00:50:16.200 | Bitcoinprivacycourse.com.
00:50:17.200 | And again, internationalescapeplan.com.
00:50:18.200 | Talk with you soon.
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