2021_Forecast
00:00:00.000 | Hello everybody, it's Sam from Financial Samurai and happy 2021.
00:00:05.060 | Hopefully everybody made it through 2020.
00:00:07.860 | That's not something we should take for granted given all that has happened.
00:00:12.060 | But I'm still here and hopefully most of you are still here as well.
00:00:16.040 | We had a really good 2020 in terms of our investments, but in terms of lifestyle, not
00:00:20.960 | so much.
00:00:22.340 | So in this episode, I want to talk about my 2021 forecast for stocks, bonds, the 10 year
00:00:28.320 | bond yield and real estate.
00:00:30.520 | I'm assuming stocks, bonds and real estate makes up a majority of your net worth.
00:00:34.840 | It does for me about 70%.
00:00:37.040 | So that's what I'm going to focus on.
00:00:39.000 | So let's get started because 2020 was a great year.
00:00:41.800 | The S&P 500 was up 16% and the Nasdaq was up about 42%.
00:00:47.560 | I mean, it is crazy how much wealth has been built, at least here in the San Francisco
00:00:51.760 | Bay Area.
00:00:52.760 | I talked to my friends who play softball and a preschool friend of mine is up like a couple
00:00:57.320 | of hundred thousand dollars because of his Tesla investment.
00:01:00.200 | And I can't imagine how much people who actually work in tech have made.
00:01:05.160 | We saw some really big IPOs.
00:01:07.200 | The latest one was Airbnb.
00:01:09.600 | They raised money at an $18 billion valuation at the bottom of 2020.
00:01:14.120 | And then it IPO at $50 billion and then it doubled to $100 billion.
00:01:18.600 | And that firm employs several thousand people.
00:01:21.520 | So it really feels like there's a big dichotomy between the investor class and the non-investor
00:01:26.640 | class.
00:01:27.640 | And I hope all of you guys listening and reading Financial Samurai are part of the investment
00:01:31.920 | class.
00:01:32.920 | And if you weren't in the investment class in 2020, that you strategically and confidently
00:01:38.680 | leg into the market and try to build your wealth through investments.
00:01:43.120 | There are no guarantees in investments.
00:01:45.360 | I'm doing my best to try to forecast things because I'm putting real money to work, guys.
00:01:50.780 | Real money to work because it's really meaningful to support my family.
00:01:54.640 | Now, I'm not just talking jibber jabber and just pontificating for the fun of it.
00:01:58.720 | It's the same thing with writing.
00:01:59.920 | I'm not writing just to write for fun.
00:02:02.360 | I am putting in real money that I have saved, that I've worked hard to create so that I
00:02:08.600 | can provide a better life for my family and stay free.
00:02:12.120 | And here's an inside tip for those of you who want to continue listening to this podcast
00:02:16.120 | or reading Financial Samurai.
00:02:18.200 | I don't reveal everything that I do.
00:02:20.880 | At the end of the day, I like to protect my private life.
00:02:24.220 | So I talk about maybe 25, 30% of the things that I think about and I like to do.
00:02:28.640 | And the rest, I just respect my family's privacy.
00:02:32.160 | However, a lot of the things that I do write about are things that are on my mind.
00:02:38.200 | They are things that I'm actually probably going to do.
00:02:41.120 | I won't say that I'm doing it exactly, but just know that, let's say, if I'm thinking
00:02:46.080 | about writing about real estate in 2021, and if I'm bullish, I'm probably going to be buying
00:02:53.440 | real estate before things take off.
00:02:56.860 | That's just the way I am.
00:02:57.860 | I try to say and write what I believe in and then take action accordingly.
00:03:02.460 | So let's start with the 10-year bond yield.
00:03:04.600 | The 10-year bond yield is the risk-free rate of return.
00:03:07.600 | And everything, I believe, starts with the 10-year bond yield.
00:03:10.960 | Once you've made a proper forecast of the 10-year bond yield, you can then proceed to
00:03:14.200 | make your appropriate investments.
00:03:15.720 | So if you've been reading or listening to Financial Samurai since 2009, you know that
00:03:20.640 | I've consistently believed the 10-year bond yield would stay low or keep going lower.
00:03:26.480 | America has contained inflation for the most part.
00:03:30.000 | We've learned from many previous economic cycles.
00:03:33.000 | We have globalization where inflation or deflation is imported.
00:03:38.600 | Technology makes information flow instantly.
00:03:41.440 | And the Federal Reserve boards around the world are all globally coordinated.
00:03:46.360 | So with this in mind, I do believe the 10-year bond yield will increase in 2021 back up to
00:03:52.080 | an average of about 1.25%.
00:03:55.920 | So we got down to about 0.51% in 2020.
00:04:00.200 | That's the record low.
00:04:01.880 | And we've rebounded since.
00:04:03.040 | By the end of 2020, we were at about 0.91%.
00:04:07.360 | So I'm talking about going from 0.91% to about 1.25%.
00:04:11.200 | I don't believe the 10-year bond yield will breach 1.5%.
00:04:17.160 | Once we take a step function down in rates, it's really hard to move back up due to expectations.
00:04:21.980 | It's kind of like lowering taxes.
00:04:24.640 | Once you start lowering taxes, the population expects taxes to be low.
00:04:29.480 | The smart, smart population will put aside reserves for future tax hikes.
00:04:34.280 | But it's just one of those things where once you start, it's hard to go back.
00:04:38.720 | I also believe the aggregate bond market will have a flat year.
00:04:42.240 | You can see a situation where the aggregate bond market index will be flat by principal
00:04:48.160 | values going down, but being made up by bond yields.
00:04:52.080 | It's not going to be an exciting year for bonds, I don't think.
00:04:55.760 | So therefore, you may want to be trimming your bond positions or just not expecting
00:05:00.840 | bonds to do much at all for you and for your net worth.
00:05:04.360 | Now let's move on to my S&P 500 outlook for 2021.
00:05:08.640 | I believe it's going to go up, but I just don't believe it's going to go up as much
00:05:12.100 | as it did in 2020.
00:05:15.160 | My 2020 bottom call was spot on.
00:05:17.960 | I wrote the call on March 18th, 2020.
00:05:21.200 | I said about 23, 2400 on the S&P 500 is going to be the bottom, and that's what happened.
00:05:28.400 | And so we bought, hopefully you bought, and you held on and you didn't panic too much.
00:05:33.640 | Now it's obviously easy to panic when things are going down 30% in one month, but hopefully
00:05:38.480 | that helped give you some kind of confidence.
00:05:41.560 | On the negative side, I certainly did not expect the rebound to be as quick or as much.
00:05:47.480 | So as a result, I did not buy enough on the way up.
00:05:50.320 | For 2021, I expect the S&P 500 to increase by about 8%.
00:05:53.840 | So that's half the rate of return of 2020 with a year end target price of 4,088, lucky
00:06:01.320 | 88.
00:06:02.320 | If the S&P 500 generates an EPS of $165 a share, that puts valuations at about 25X.
00:06:09.520 | And 25X is at the historical high over the past about 20 years.
00:06:15.980 | So valuations are clearly expensive.
00:06:18.200 | However, it's about the valuation and about the expected earnings rebound in 2021.
00:06:24.400 | So 2020, the earnings EPS is going to be about $131 per share.
00:06:30.520 | We don't know what fourth quarter is yet, but that's the estimate.
00:06:33.140 | So if you estimate 165 plus earnings per share in 2021, we're talking about 25% plus earnings
00:06:40.860 | growth.
00:06:41.860 | Now, depending on where your estimate is for 2021, it could be as much as a 35% to 40%
00:06:49.720 | earnings rebound.
00:06:50.720 | So on a relative basis, 25X with at least 25% earnings growth puts it at a one times
00:06:58.240 | price to earnings growth ratio, which is somewhat reasonable if the earnings happens.
00:07:04.320 | It's really interesting and worth noting that about 90% of the S&P 500's market capitalization
00:07:10.360 | is now based on intangible assets such as research and development, IP and software.
00:07:16.520 | Therefore you can make an argument that valuation should go up over time because these type
00:07:22.680 | of businesses have higher operating profit margins and are scalable and are more defensible.
00:07:29.680 | We all have seen the dichotomy between businesses that were forced to shut down in 2020 and
00:07:35.160 | businesses that were able to keep on operating in 2020.
00:07:38.680 | I'm looking at, for example, blog valuations.
00:07:40.600 | I talked to numerous suitors in 2020.
00:07:43.040 | It was really interesting.
00:07:44.560 | And valuations alone for blogs are up 20% to 50% in 2020.
00:07:50.640 | Again, because good cash flow, high operating profit margins, and they cannot be shut down.
00:07:56.800 | So let's put my target price of $4,088 for the S&P 500 in 2021 in perspective.
00:08:03.480 | Let's look at a couple of Wall Street firms that I know do a pretty good job over time,
00:08:07.960 | Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
00:08:10.040 | Goldman Sachs has a year end target price of $4,300 and JP Morgan has a year end target
00:08:15.560 | price of $4,400.
00:08:17.400 | Specifically JP Morgan's 2021 EPS estimate is for $178 per share.
00:08:24.800 | That's a 36% earnings rebound.
00:08:27.960 | That is aggressive.
00:08:29.960 | I think these guys are forecasting way too high because of three things.
00:08:35.400 | One, there's a risk of virus mutations that lower the current efficacy rates of existing
00:08:41.880 | vaccines.
00:08:43.000 | Let's all pray that there's not a new coronavirus that makes our current vaccines impotent.
00:08:48.440 | Two, the other big risk is that there's a slower than expected vaccine rollout.
00:08:53.720 | And we're seeing that right now.
00:08:55.520 | And this will have big consequences on the economic recovery.
00:08:58.960 | It's probably going to delay the economic recovery from the end of 2021 to 2022 or later.
00:09:04.660 | At the current rate of the vaccine rollout, it's going to take five to 10 years until
00:09:08.800 | we reach herd immunity.
00:09:10.640 | And a lot of us, including myself, are hoping we reach herd immunity by the end of 2021.
00:09:17.080 | And the final risk, and it's out there but not certain, is that the Senate goes blue.
00:09:23.000 | So there's two Senate seats in Georgia.
00:09:25.320 | We've seen that one of the Senate seats has turned blue.
00:09:29.040 | Maybe the other one will, which will create a 50/50 split in the upper house, and which
00:09:33.520 | means that Kamala Harris, if she becomes vice president, will be the deciding vote.
00:09:38.600 | So on the negative side for investors, there could be higher regulation, more regulation.
00:09:44.280 | Maybe I think we should certainly expect to see higher taxes, not only personal income
00:09:49.640 | taxes, but corporate taxes.
00:09:51.800 | Joe Biden said on his campaign trail that that's what he's going to do.
00:09:54.680 | So if he has power in the Senate or alignment in the Senate, then that's what's going to
00:09:59.560 | happen.
00:10:00.560 | We're going to see more regulation and more taxes.
00:10:02.560 | On the positive side for investors, we could see more stimulus, right?
00:10:06.760 | We could see $2,000 stimulus checks to families who make under $150,000 or individuals who
00:10:12.400 | make under $75,000.
00:10:14.800 | And we see another round of stimulus checks if needed in the summer of 2021.
00:10:19.800 | It could be just a hip parade of stimulus checks that someone's going to have to pay
00:10:24.600 | for, but not us in the short term, right?
00:10:27.880 | So whatever happens with the Senate, I think what you're going to see is investors maybe
00:10:33.800 | not caring so much.
00:10:35.080 | They just want the results to be done, just like the presidential election.
00:10:39.760 | Regardless of who won the presidential election in November 2020, the market just had a relief
00:10:45.400 | rally because they found out, "Okay, looks like Joe Biden won, so let's just get on with
00:10:50.960 | it."
00:10:51.960 | It's one of those, "Let's just get on with things" kind of moment, because we know that
00:10:54.660 | politics doesn't really affect the S&P 500 returns.
00:11:00.120 | We've looked at history.
00:11:01.120 | I've written a post about it.
00:11:02.560 | The returns are kind of what they are regardless of who is in power.
00:11:07.680 | But we do know that when there is gridlock, the returns tend to be better.
00:11:12.480 | So just something to think about.
00:11:13.640 | These are the three risk factors to very bullish S&P 500 2021 estimates by Wall Street.
00:11:20.820 | For me, less bullish, much more pragmatic, but that's just the way I am, especially after
00:11:25.720 | a surprising good, good year.
00:11:29.400 | In terms of sectors that will outperform, I think consumer discretionary financials
00:11:34.680 | and energy will perform pretty well.
00:11:37.200 | These are the sectors that lag the most because they also got hit the most.
00:11:40.880 | Financials, it's their time to shine.
00:11:42.680 | The yield curve should steepen because rates are going up and it makes lending more profitable.
00:11:50.680 | And I don't think tech investors should expect a similar type of outperformance as the economy
00:11:54.640 | rebounds.
00:11:55.640 | I am overweight tech, and I'm probably going to underperform.
00:11:59.360 | I think there's a 65% chance of big tech underperforming as the economy opens up.
00:12:06.000 | The Nasdaq is trading at about 40 XPE.
00:12:09.400 | That's the highest since 2014.
00:12:11.520 | So it's expensive.
00:12:12.520 | Now, obviously, it could continue going higher if earnings grow faster than expected.
00:12:17.920 | But I just think there's going to be a sector rotation.
00:12:21.120 | And unfortunately for me and other tech investors who've ridden the wave in 2020, there's just
00:12:26.000 | going to be a rotation into the underperforming sectors.
00:12:29.360 | I will be investing in the stock market whenever there's a 1% to 2% dip.
00:12:33.120 | We saw the dip the first day of trading in 2021.
00:12:36.320 | I put some money to work, but I'm not aggressively investing.
00:12:40.180 | I will be maxing out the 401k, SEP IRA, Roth IRA for my kids, 529 plans, all that stuff.
00:12:48.240 | But in terms of big money, it's really hard for me to put big money to work.
00:12:53.400 | Big is just relative, just my bigger money.
00:12:56.160 | And for you guys, it's up to you guys to decide.
00:12:59.200 | But again, I only think there's going to be about an 8%, maybe 10% return in the S&P 500
00:13:04.720 | in 2021.
00:13:05.720 | Therefore, I can see opportunity elsewhere.
00:13:08.240 | And that opportunity is in the real estate market for me in 2021.
00:13:12.160 | The median home price in America went up about 8% to 8.5% in 2020.
00:13:16.720 | So if you put down 20%, that's a 40% gross return on a 20% down payment.
00:13:22.440 | This level of growth is simply unsustainable.
00:13:26.060 | So I think for 2021, the national median growth rate will hover more around 5%.
00:13:32.280 | 5% is the level of growth we've seen more aligned to 2015 and 2017 levels.
00:13:39.480 | Meanwhile, commercial real estate, I think is really, really interesting.
00:13:43.720 | I think commercial real estate will start catching up as the economy opens up.
00:13:47.880 | There should be deals to be had in the hospitality and office space.
00:13:52.320 | If you are a vulture, you should be looking at these spaces for people who own these properties
00:13:57.320 | that just cannot hold on until the economy opens.
00:14:01.880 | It's sad, but that is capitalism.
00:14:04.600 | People who are over leveraged with hospitality and office space, those are probably the opportunities
00:14:11.600 | you should really look at.
00:14:13.440 | Mortgage rates won't increase by more than 25 basis points on average, if my prediction
00:14:18.440 | on the 10-year bond yield is correct.
00:14:20.480 | So in other words, instead of getting a 2.75% average 30-year fixed rate mortgage, maybe
00:14:27.240 | it goes to 3%.
00:14:28.240 | 3% is still way low.
00:14:30.480 | I don't think it's going to go much over 3.25% because I don't think the 10-year bond yield
00:14:34.360 | is going to go over 1.5%.
00:14:37.040 | So mortgage rates are going to continue to stay low, which is going to continue to be
00:14:40.880 | a nice tailwind for the real estate sector.
00:14:44.800 | I think what's also going to happen is that people who've had huge stock gains will shift
00:14:48.920 | some of that money into real estate.
00:14:51.800 | And I think there's going to be an increase in appetite for cash-flowing rental properties
00:14:55.440 | given the value of income has gone way up because interest rates have gone way down.
00:15:00.580 | And this is a constant theme going forward for me.
00:15:03.720 | It takes a lot more capital to generate the same amount of risk-adjusted income.
00:15:09.280 | But you're seeing rental properties, they haven't grown nearly as much as the increase
00:15:15.400 | in the value of their cash flow.
00:15:17.800 | Once you've made huge principal gains, especially gains that you didn't expect, I think most
00:15:21.700 | of us did not expect these type of stock gains, equity gains in 2020, you want to convert
00:15:27.400 | some of these gains into a steady income stream or into real assets.
00:15:31.520 | If you follow the strategy, I think you're going to build a lot of wealth going forward
00:15:37.320 | and you're going to be able to protect a lot of that wealth going forward.
00:15:41.240 | So again, the opportunity in real estate lies in buying hospitality, office, and also multifamily
00:15:47.560 | properties, rental properties.
00:15:49.880 | You really want to gain that cash flow because imagine earning a rental increase and a principal
00:15:56.880 | gain increase.
00:15:57.880 | That's a double win, folks.
00:15:59.200 | And I think that's what's going to happen as the market gets better, stronger, and everything
00:16:03.320 | rebounds.
00:16:04.320 | Further, strategically, I like buying real estate where there is the biggest difference
00:16:08.360 | in company share price performance and local real estate price performance.
00:16:13.260 | For example, the NASDAQ closed up 42% in 2020.
00:16:16.640 | Therefore, you want to buy real estate in places like the San Francisco Bay Area and
00:16:20.640 | Seattle where many of the NASDAQ companies are located.
00:16:24.200 | The returns on Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, which account for about 25% of the
00:16:31.840 | S&P 500 now, were so massive and they employ hundreds of thousands of people.
00:16:37.840 | It's only logical.
00:16:38.840 | You just talk to the people who live in these areas.
00:16:41.040 | They're like, "Yeah, we're looking at buying a bigger house.
00:16:43.880 | We're looking at upgrading.
00:16:44.880 | We're going to get a second house, yada, yada, yada."
00:16:47.520 | It's there, folks.
00:16:48.520 | I am here in San Francisco.
00:16:50.480 | I talked to my softball friends, my friends from tennis.
00:16:54.720 | People are putting their money to work and they're thinking to themselves, "I just had
00:16:58.680 | a surprise huge windfall.
00:17:00.120 | I want to spend my money on a better life."
00:17:02.720 | And that's why we're expecting 25% plus earnings rebounds in 2021 and beyond, because people
00:17:09.200 | have pent up savings and huge windfalls to spend.
00:17:13.200 | I also believe big city real estate will make a nice comeback in the second half of 2021
00:17:18.440 | and 2022.
00:17:19.440 | Therefore, you want to strategically buy before the comeback is really evident.
00:17:23.480 | One of the great things about being in San Francisco since 2001 is that I've seen the
00:17:29.120 | herd come back by 2003 after the first 2000.com crash and by 2012 after the 2008 and 2009
00:17:38.160 | financial crisis.
00:17:39.680 | The herd always waits for the green light, always, at least in these previous cycles.
00:17:47.000 | It's just the way it is.
00:17:48.000 | We want to see safety.
00:17:49.760 | We want to see things go up 50%, 100% first before we start putting our money to work.
00:17:56.160 | But the savvy investor, the one who's willing to take a little bit more risk or at least
00:18:00.960 | strategically leg in before there's a green light, tends to make the most amount of money
00:18:06.200 | over time.
00:18:07.420 | At the same time, I continue to believe in investing in the heartland of America.
00:18:12.080 | Not only is there a fanning out within cities to save on living costs, I saved 40% on my
00:18:17.800 | living costs by just moving three miles west in 2014 in San Francisco.
00:18:23.100 | There's also a fanning out across the country thanks to technology and the permanent acceptance
00:18:27.840 | of working from home.
00:18:29.440 | This is a multi-decade trend.
00:18:31.100 | That's not going to stop.
00:18:32.100 | So you want to look at obviously the 18-hour cities.
00:18:35.940 | Austin is getting all the publicity, but then there's Miami, right, getting a lot of the
00:18:40.640 | VC publicity.
00:18:42.320 | It's kind of nuts, but this is just the herd looking at where else things are going.
00:18:48.440 | Remember, we've been talking about that since 2014 and 2017 here on Financial Samurai, and
00:18:53.720 | it's really kind of taking off now.
00:18:56.160 | So if you're a listener and you're a reader, it's about practicing, predicting the future,
00:19:01.680 | forecasting the future.
00:19:02.680 | You're obviously not going to get it right all the time, but just think about where things
00:19:06.520 | are going forward.
00:19:07.800 | And I think heartland of America real estate is obviously going to be a beneficiary of
00:19:12.660 | demographic trends going forward.
00:19:15.320 | All right, so we've talked about stocks, bonds, the 10-year bond yield, and real estate.
00:19:21.980 | So what we haven't talked about, which is going to be really important, at least starting
00:19:25.440 | in the second half or the middle of 2021, is inflation.
00:19:30.160 | The discussion about inflation is really going to pick up steam, especially if the Fed stays
00:19:34.920 | accommodative and stocks and real estate continue to go up.
00:19:38.960 | Let's say stocks and real estate are up another 5 plus percent by June 2021.
00:19:44.240 | Undoubtedly, we're going to talk about inflation.
00:19:47.880 | And when we talk about inflation, we talk about an eroding purchasing power of the dollar.
00:19:54.160 | We talk about the K-shaped recovery some more where people are getting left behind.
00:19:59.680 | We'll talk about the job market, how it's heating up.
00:20:02.920 | And ultimately, we'll talk about why the Federal Reserve will probably have to raise interest
00:20:07.760 | rates.
00:20:08.760 | Again, this is if everything is going fine and dandy, everything is going up, and so
00:20:13.400 | forth.
00:20:14.400 | So inflation is something that is too powerful of a force to combat.
00:20:17.600 | You always want to at least get neutral inflation.
00:20:20.800 | You get neutral inflation by investing in stocks and in real estate.
00:20:25.480 | So in terms of real estate, you want to at least own your primary residence.
00:20:29.120 | This way, you can at least ride the inflation wave up and down, up and down.
00:20:34.000 | You're enjoying, you're appreciating asset, hopefully.
00:20:36.660 | It's a wonderful combination, which is why I like real estate the most, or at least I
00:20:40.800 | prefer real estate over stocks.
00:20:43.080 | But in an inflationary environment, what you really need to do is go long real estate by
00:20:47.160 | owning more than one property.
00:20:49.060 | This way, you can benefit from capital appreciation and rental appreciation.
00:20:53.880 | And you can benefit by collecting those rents or selling off your real estate that has appreciation.
00:20:59.080 | Because you've got to live somewhere.
00:21:00.560 | You just can't sell your primary residence.
00:21:02.520 | And then if you go and rent, then you become a price taker, not a price dictator.
00:21:08.720 | So there you have it, folks.
00:21:10.060 | I think with a 75% probability, 2021 should be a profitable year for stocks and real estate.
00:21:17.440 | And if something bad happens, you know something bad is going to happen.
00:21:20.760 | You know we're going to have 5%, 10% corrections here and there, because valuations are expensive.
00:21:28.320 | Everybody seems to be really, really optimistic about the future.
00:21:32.100 | So if something bad happens, you know we can count on Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve
00:21:35.960 | Chair, and Joe Biden to bail us out.
00:21:39.400 | There's no way they can't bail us out, since they just got into power.
00:21:43.320 | And once you get power, you start getting addicted to power.
00:21:47.040 | And you want to hold on to that power as much as possible.
00:21:50.720 | So I believe the government is going to look out for us.
00:21:54.160 | And they should.
00:21:55.320 | I also think there is a massive amount of savings that is ready to be unleashed.
00:22:01.160 | Take a look at your own balance sheet.
00:22:02.680 | Do you have a lot of savings now, more than last year?
00:22:06.760 | Hopefully the answer is yes.
00:22:09.040 | Ask your friends and colleagues whether they've got large cash buffers.
00:22:13.360 | Chances are high, and they probably do, because the national savings rate has been elevated
00:22:17.080 | since March 2020.
00:22:19.160 | You saw the savings rate go up to like 33% in April 2020.
00:22:23.880 | I mean, it's been coming down, but it's still much higher than the national average before
00:22:28.240 | the pandemic of about 6%.
00:22:30.640 | So this unleashing of savings is really going to be instrumental for the 25% plus S&P 500
00:22:37.120 | corporate earnings rebound, and for real estate going forward.
00:22:40.720 | I know personally, I have a goal of spending at least one month in Oahu at the end of 2021
00:22:46.600 | to spend more time with my parents.
00:22:49.080 | I'm going to spend whatever it is to try to catch up on a life missed in 2020.
00:22:56.120 | And I think everybody has the same idea.
00:22:58.640 | So let's just remain positive, stay focused.
00:23:02.320 | 75% chance that things will go well in 2021.
00:23:06.760 | But that also means there's a 25% chance that stocks and real estate have a bad year and
00:23:11.640 | things go poorly.
00:23:12.640 | Therefore, don't over leverage yourself, please.
00:23:16.000 | Don't go crazy like we've seen in previous bubbles or really bullish times like 1999.
00:23:22.240 | Please don't go on too much margin and overextend yourself.
00:23:26.560 | Thanks so much, everyone.
00:23:27.560 | If you enjoyed this podcast, I'd love a positive review, maybe some commentary to keep me motivated.
00:23:33.720 | I realized that I haven't done one in over a month.
00:23:38.160 | And it's because there's just other things to do.
00:23:41.080 | And your feedback, your positive feedback will keep me motivated.
00:23:44.040 | And I'm gonna try to get my wife on and we're gonna talk about the future, hopefully in
00:23:47.760 | a new episode going forward.
00:23:49.680 | Thanks so much and stay safe.
00:23:51.920 | And let's hope for a profitable 2021.